50* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH

Portland Trailblazers -3

Everything I look for in a game is right here with Portland tonight. For starters, this is a fantastic public fade as everyone is lining up to back the King as an underdog. Also, those who know my style know that I LOVE storylines. Paul Allen, owner of the Seahawks and Blazers, just died. Portland has the ultimate motivation to go for a win in front of their fans. The bottomline here is the LeBron hasn't won his first game for his new team in his career. He lost his rookie debut, his first game with the Heat, and his return to Cleveland. Look for Portland to get the W tonight while the media questions what's wrong with the Lakers tomorrow.

30*

Oklahoma City Thunder +13.5

30*

Philadelphia 76ers +5.5

30*

New England Patriots -3

20*

Houston Texans -10

In all honesty, the only reason this isn't a Top Play is because the Texans are coming off back to back OT games. This game falls into one of the best and rarest NFL systems. The Buffalo Bills are a double digit underdog getting more than two thirds of the action. Underdogs typically aren't supposed to get big support, hence why they are the underdog. Buffalo still isn't a good football team. Yes, they do have two wins but they were fortunate by getting both teams in dreadful spots. I love betting against public underdogs and we'll gladly do it here for 2%.

20*

Pittsburgh Steelers +2

These are the games that the Steelers win. They've been doing it for years. The Bengals are a totally fake 4-1 squad. You can make a tiny fortune backing Pittsburgh blindly every time they play the Bengals. The Steelers are 17-3-1 ATS the last 22 meetings in Cincy and 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings overall.

30*

USC -7

20*

Virginia +7

20*

Baylor +14

20*

Army -16

30*

Arizona Cardinals +3.5

Fading San Francisco here. The 49ers had their coming together moment after their star QB went down and gave a battle to the Chargers. It's one of the oldest angles in betting. Back the team that loses their superstar the next game since the team usually rallies around one another. However, you fade them the next game because a let down is coming. Arizona has been so close the last two weeks and you know they are hungry for a win.

40*

Minnesota Vikings +3.5

30*

Oakland Raiders +6

30*

Mississippi State +4

50*

Texas A&M -5.5

40*

New York Giants +3.5

This has the makings of the public burial of the day. The Saints and Brees are in a terrible spot. Not only are they playing back to back road games (where Brees has been a lot worse outdoors,) they're also coming off playing a 5 quarter game against their divisional arch-rival. They say that defense travels and this Saints defense is absolutely dreadful. To make matters worse, Robinson broke his leg and this secondary could be in for a long day. 

20*

Houston Texans +1

The Texans just have too much talent to keep losing. I feel like this is the coming out game for the Texans. If they lose this one, O'Brien might be shown the door. A big part of this play is the gigantic red flag the Colts waved last week. Andrew Luck can't throw deep down the field. This gives a huge edge to the Texans knowing that they don't have to worry about getting burned deep. Colts also may be in for a letdown coming off that close fought game against the Super Bowl Champs and it was Reicht's first game against his old team.

20*

Philadelphia Eagles -3

I know this may be the public side but I think this is a spot where we can back the short road favorite. The Titans come off a huge upset division win and now have to face the Champs with Carson Wentz. I like the fact this is now Wentz's 2nd game back so he'll be in more of a rhythm and most of the jitters will be gone. The Titans have been a terrible bet coming off a S.U. win going 17-41 ATS.

30*

South Carolina -2

40*

Baltimore Ravens -5

I expect the Ravens to bounce back after their Thursday night loss to Cincy. I typical like backing teams that lose in primetime the previous week. The Ravens are in a great spot getting the extra few days to prepare, while the Broncos have to come to the east coast for a 1pm game for their first road game of the season. This team is extremely lucky to be 2-0 and as the looks of it, beat two really bad teams in the Seahawks and Raiders. The Broncos come into this game over valued and with the oddsmakers posting this line over 4 points tells me that the Ravens are clearly the right side here.

50*

Green Bay Packers -2.5

I know this is the square side but I have to back Aaron Rodgers here. The Redskins are a laughingstock. They don't have much talent and they have the worst home field advantage in the NFL. Being a Redskins fan, I watch this team closely and I don't see how Alex Smith, AKA Mr Check Down, can trade points with the MVP. Remember, Alex Smith was taken #1 Overall in the same draft as Rodgers, so you know he has a big time chip on his shoulder when playing him.

30*

Louisiana Tech +20

50* NFL DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR

Atlanta Falcons -5.5

This game has everything I look for in a Week 2 game in the NFL. We have a 1-0 team facing an 0-1 team and the Thursday night game loser playing on extra rest/preparation at home. If you watched that Falcons/Eagles game, you know that the Falcons were clearly the better team. I will say the weather and outdoors played a bit of a factor. Atlanta, like New Orleans, is a completely different animal playing in the dome. Carolina is also going to miss Olsen and the X-Factor for this game is the Hurricane. I believe the Panthers might not have full focus given the fact that their home town is in danger. 

30*

Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

40*

Florida -19.5

We were actually on Florida and Arkansas last week. We lost both bets as Florida laid a total egg and Colorado State scored 25 unanswered on their way to an epic comeback. This has given us tremendous value. We have a double digit favorite coming off an outright loss and a double digit dog coming off an outright win. Florida will be dying to get on the field to lay a beatdown against a team playing their first true road game of the season. 

40*

Auburn -10

Most would argue that you should take the points with such a low total. I believe this shows that Auburn is the clear right side. Auburn has serious revenge from last season as they dominated the game but let it slip through their fingers. Most will still remember the beat down LSU put on Miami thinking that they are better. Auburn has aruguably a Top 3 defensive line in the enitre nation. I'm expecting Auburn to do whatever they want tonight.

30* MNF PARLAY

Oakland Raiders +5

The WHOLE WORLD is betting the LA Rams here. It's typically a recipe for disaster when the betting public backs a road favorite. I'll say it until I'm blue in the face, I love me some home underdogs. All the talk is that the Rams "won the offseason" and that the Raiders traded away Khalil Mack. This narrative is only a positive for Oakland. They can play relaxed with the Mack drama finally out of the way and they're playing a team with a ton of pressure on them. Let's not forget, none of the starters played for LA in the preseason and rust could definitely play a factor here. I also love the fact that Derek Carr is flying completely under the radar and that John Gruden, Monday Night Football's Golden Boy, gets to make his debut at home on MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL! 

30* MNF PARLAY

New York Jets +7

I'm fading Matt Patricia here. The pre-season for this guy was embarrasing. There were times where he looked competely lost. Granted it was the preseason, but coming in as a brand new head coach, I feel like you need to set an example and he still looked like a coordinator out there. Detroit still has an awful rushing attack and they rely too heavily on Matt Stafford. If this Jets defense can force Detroit to run and if Darnold doesn't make too many mistakes with the football, I wouldn't be surpised to see the Jets pull the shocker.

50* NFL MAX BET

Arizona Cardinals -1

I hate the move for Alex Smith by the Redskins. This is a major downgrade from Cousins and to make matters worse, they traded away one of their best DBs in the process. Sam Bradford will be behind center for Arizona and you won't confuse him for a Pro Bowler but he clearly can get the job done. We also have David Johnson back for the Cardinals and people are completely forgetting about him. This dude was absolutely tearing it up before he went down. The Redskins have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight season openers and this shows that they continue to be over valued coming into the season.

30*

Denver Broncos -2.5

50* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH

Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I have the Minnesota Vikings rated as the best team in the NFL. This team has one of the best home field advantages in all of football. San Francisco comes into this season with a ton of hype. Everyone is jumping on the Jimmy G train and I don't think it's warranted. SF coming into the season last year was rated the WORST, #32! Now they get a QB and they're a Top 10 team according to some experts?! I don't think so. NFL teams now have an enitre offseason to prepare for him. What a way to start the season for the 49ers having to take on the NFL's best defense. The Vikings finally have a Top tier QB in Cousins and have a TON of weapons around him. This team is DEADLY.

20*

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5

I know it's so hard to back Andy Dalton but this play is a fade of Andrew Luck. This guy hasn't played meaningful football in a very long time and most are expecting him to just pick right back up where he left off. The Colts have now lost 4 straight home openers and are an embarrasing 1-9 ATS in the last 10 season openers. I believe this game should be a pick em and getting 3 points is a huge bonus.

30*

Stanford -5.5

20*

Penn State -7

50*

Miami-Ohio +1

20*

Florida -13.5

20*

Arkansas -13.5

20*

Alabama State +53.5

20*

Clemson -11

20*

Ball State +34.5

30*

Florida Atlantic -9

30*

Mississippi State -7

40*

Middle Tennessee State +3

analysis will be posted after all picks are final.

BONUS FUTURES: Washington to win the National Championship + Win Pac-12.

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20*

Northern Arizona -7.5

50*

Washington +2.5

analysis will be posted after all picks are final.

BONUS FUTURES: Washington to win the National Championship + Win Pac-12.

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30*

Wyoming +105

20*

Utah State +24

30*

Cleveland Browns -3

Was waiting to see if we could get a better number but we got to release now. Bottom line here is we literally have the best team in football (Eagles) against the worst team in football from last year (Browns) and the worst team is favored. The Eagles have absolutely nothing to play for and don't want to risk any injuries, especially to their two QBs that are currently banged up already.

20*

Arizona Diamondbacks RL -1.5

30*

Detroit Lions +3

The preseason comes down to a few factors for me. QB rotations, coaches motivations, and vanilla defenses. One nugget I will share with you is that I do like playing on teams that have a QB controversy. Also, I like playing on veteran back up QBs.

Will have more on this game later.

20*

Washington Redskins +3.5

The preseason comes down to a few factors for me. QB rotations, coaches motivations, and vanilla defenses. One nugget I will share with you is that I do like playing on teams that have a QB controversy. Also, I like playing on veteran back up QBs.

Will have more on this game later.

40*

Indiana Fever +12.5

20*

Los Angeles Angles -1.5

20*

Washington Nationals -1.5

20*

Colorado Rockies -1.5

20*

Washington Nationals -1.5

20*

Boston Celtics +1

20*

Houston Astros RL -1.5

30*

Philadelphia 76ers +1.5

30*

Philadelphia 76ers -4

40* 

Boston Celtics -4.5

30*

Utah Jazz -6

20*

Toronto Raptors -7

20*

New Orleans Pelicans -4

The Portland Trailblazers have NO answers for the Pelicans. They have been dominated down low and around the perimeter, which typically is the Blazers strength. Jrue and Rajon are totally in the heads of Portland's back court. It's tough watching CJ McCollum in this series. I like to call him "Baby Melo." There are times in the offense where he will only look for his shot. There is ZERO ball movement and no one else will touch the ball and he'll throw up a brick. Team's with players like that will never win in the Playoffs. It's no surprise that every team that makes deep runs year after year have exceptional ball movement and share the basketball. It wouldn't shock me one bit to see the Pels sweep this series.

BONUS 3% Play: San Antonio Spurs +1 FIRST HALF 

50* NBA MAX BET

Miami Heat +2

One of my favorite angles in betting is fading a team their next game after a double digit win streak comes to an end. This is the 76ers first loss in 17 games. A natural letdown is inevitable. Philadelphia truly hasn't looked that great in these playoffs. If you look deeper, they've had one dominant half (out of 4) The Heat have been the better team in the other 3. Miami clearly has the experience edge and getting a team like this at PLUS money at HOME is a MUST bet!

50* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH

Portland Trailblazers -6

Yes, we are playing into the Zig Zag theory. When a favorite of this number goes down in Game 1 at home...the team is 67-11 SU and 52-26 ATS in Game 2. You simply can't ignore that trend. The Pelicans nearly blew a 19 point lead late but held on barely at the end in Game 1. Why they extended that lead early was because Dame and CJ couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, starting 1-15. Once they settled in, they had their fierce come back and if there was just another minute left in the game...Portland would have won. This game also plays into an historical system that has not lost in this spot in 20 years.

40* NBA TOP PLAY PARLAY

Miami Heat +6.5

There is a myth going around that you don't want to face teams going into the NBA playoffs hot. 70% of the NBA teams heading into the playoffs 9-1 or 10-0 in their last 10 games have lost the opening round of the Playoffs. The experience edge is CLEARLY on the side of the Miami Heat here and Spoelstra is one hell of a coach. A Miami series play at +400 is DEFINITELY worth a unit as well.

40* NBA TOP PLAY PARLAY

Washington Wizards +8

Yes, it's going to be tough for me to back a Washington team in the post-season, but we can't ignore the 0-12 historical Game 1 trend for the Raptors. This team has LOST 12 straight series openers, straight up AND against the spread. A team that has been this bad can not be expected to win by nearly double digits. Washington is a peculiar team. If this team could play with just a little bit of desire and team chemistry, they could play with anyone in the East. I expect them to have some heart out there becuase it IS the Playoffs. 

30*

Miami Heat -12.5

50* Final Four MAX BET

Michigan -5

This Loyola Cinderella story reminds me of the run George Mason went on in 2006. How did that end for George Mason? They got smoked by 15 against a much more talented Florida Gators team. I am expecting a similar result here when the Ramblers take on the Wolverines. The difference between the GMU run and Chicago's run, I believe, is the level of competition. GMU had to go through Murderer's row to win the Regional. Loyola-Chicago has GREATLY benefited from the teams they ended up playing. 

First, Chicago needed a miracle buzzer beater and missed free throws from Miami, who was playing without Bryce Brown. Second, they needed another miracle shot to beat Tennessee, who was playing without Kyle Alexander. Third, they beat Nevada (who just had two double digit comebacks) AND was playing without their PG. Fourth, they beat Kansas State, who was playing without their best player in Dean Wade. To say this team has been lucky is an understatement.

Michigan is by far the best team Loyola will face this tournament. Michigan's defense is ranked 3rd behind Cincinnati and UVA, but the way they were playing late in the year...this team had the best, in my opinion. As long as Michigan doesn't go ice cold from 3 and shoots a respectable percentage from the charity stripe, they will cover this number with ease.

20*

Portland Trailblazer -6

30*

Toronto Raptors -8.5

50* Sweet 16 MAX BET 

Kansas -4.5

Well we're doing it again folks. Last two seasons we have had 50* Sweet 16 MAX Bets on the Kansas Jayhawks and BOTH games were total blowouts. Kansas has done exceptionally well with the extra time to prepare in the tournament. Coaching his a HUGE deal the farther you get in the tourney and Bill Self has been there done that, going 9-3 in the Sweet 16, where Clemson hasn't sniffed this round in decades. 

We are getting a ton of line value here because of the performances of each team the last two games and the public perception that goes along with it. Everyone saw Clemson run Auburn out of the gym and beat the public darling in New Mexico State. In my opinion, I don't think these wins are impressive at all. Clemson had to be playing with a huge chip on their shoulder being totally dissed by everyone picking NMSU. They then took on Auburn...Auburn was hands down the most over rated team in the Big Dance. We did take College of Charleston in that 1st round game and they could've easily upset the Tigers, showing how grossly over seeded they were this year.

As for Kansas, they were in a big hole early to Penn and then went down to the wire with Seton Hall. I believe Seton Hall was an under rated team and that win was a lot more impressive then it was on paper. Kansas is on fire right now, winning 10 of their last 11 and they have the gift of playing in their backyard again. I'm expecting another repeat or should I say, three peat performance of the Sweet 16 for rock chalk Jayhawk.

40*

Orlando Magic +10.5

40*

Utah -4.5

50* One & Only March Madness GAME OF THE YEAR

Kansas State -10

No surprise here. We are fading UMBC. Unless you live under a rock, you know that the Retrievers pulled, quite possibly, the biggest sports upset in HISTORY! Not only did they win, they beat the living crap out of the #1 overall seed. So this squad that just beat "the best team in the country" is now catching 10 points?! Easy money right? Not so fast. 

UMBC is in the letdown spots of all letdown spots. These players just became celebrities over night. Every media outlet wants to talk to them and their phones have to be ringing off the hook. To say they are feeling full of themselves is an understatement. They could lose this game by 100 and it would not matter. No one will remember what they did in this game. Their claim to fame will always be the 16 that beat the 1. UMBC did their jobs.

Time to snap back to reality. The team is massively under sized and they will get BEAT DOWN by a much more talented, power conference team that will NOT be taking them lightly this time. To make matters worse, UMBC's best player clearly isn't at 100% right now. 

30*

Cincinnati -8

I don't know how much Nevada is going to have left in the tank after beating Texas in OT. Nevada plays, what they call a "6 and a half man rotation." They are not deep whatsoever. Yes, we did have Texas in that game and I am a little bitter about it, but I don't think Nevada is any good. They only won because Texas can't make simple free throws. Cincy should pull away from the Wolfpack in the 2nd half when Nevada runs out of gas. 

30*

Kentucky -5.5

The Wildcats are now in the drivers seat to make it to the Elite 8. This bracket looked like they had ZERO chance to get out with Arizona and UVA standing in their way. Funny how crazy March can be. John Calipari will have these boys ready for Buffalo. They will definitely have their way down low and the key here is the 3 point line. Buffalo relies on the perimeter to score their points and that's how they beat Arizona. Kentucky will not let that happen as they are one of the best teams in the nation defending the 3 as they have outstanding length. Kentucky is on an absolute roll right now and have been dynamite covering the spread of late too. Historically, 12 seeds or worse have not fared well ATS in the Round of 32. Look for Kentucky to roll into the Sweet 16.

40* CBB TOP DOG PARLAY

New Mexico State +5

40* CBB TOP DOG PARLAY

College of Charleston +9

This play is a complete fade of the Auburn Tigers. I think this is one of the most over rated teams in the country. Yes, injuries have hurt this team but they are in a downward spiral and they are facing a Charleston team that is on fire right now. They have won 14 of their last 15 games with the only loss coming in OT. Charleston has an outstanding point guard and if he is on, I believe they have a great chance of winning this game outright.

20*

Portland Trailblazers -5.5

20*

San Antonio Spurs -4.5

30*

Kentucky -4.5

20*

Seton Hall -3

20*

South Dakota State +8.5

50* CBB MAX BET

University of Texas-Arlington +1.5

I really like this UTA team. I'm going to be looking to play on this team in the Big Dance if they can pull out this victory today. This team is full of seniors, they have great team chemistry, and they have two studs in Neal and the best player in the country you haven't heard of yet in Kevin Hervey. When those two guys are hot, I truly believe they can match up with anyone in the nation. 

My long term clients know that I graduated from WVU and Coastal Carolina. The reason I mention this is because CCU recently joined the Sun Belt Conference. I follow this conference very closely and even though UTA was the #4 seed, they are hands down the best team in this conference. We played on this team earler this year, heavy, when they took on Alabama as 11 point dogs and they nearly pulled out the outright victory at the buzzer, losing by a single point. I love UTA here guys and like I said before, don't be surprised if we play on them again BIG in the 1st round of the NCAA tournament.

20*

Virginia -3.5

Was waiting all day to try and get a 3 but we can't any longer and need to release. 

UVA is clearly my favorite team in College Basketball right now and one of my picks to win it all. This defense is the real deal and they have held UNC to under 50 points, that's right FIFTY, in the last two meetings. UVA continues to be undervalued over and over again. This is the best team in the country and they still weren't even the favorite to win the ACC?! I expect UVA to prove their worth tonight and beat last year's Champions.

30*

Villanova -13.5

To be honest, this was going to be a 5% GOY at 10 or less. I was a bit disapointed to see a 13 but it does tell me that Villanova is the right side here. This is the BIG EAST CHAMPIONSHIP and there's a team that is expected to win by two touchdowns...this could get ugly. I don't think Providence will have enough left in the tank after over coming that 17 point deficit and winnning in OT last night. This team was celebrating last night like they won the whole thing, talking about "WE TOOK OUT THE #1 SEED." Slow down Providence. Villanova is on a roll right now and they are revenge minded from losing to the Friars last time out. Villanova has been hitting everything from the floor during the tourney and these rims are their best friends right now. 

20*

Southern California (USC) -5.5

20*

Toledo -6

20*

Bucknell -9