The Lions won't have the Detroit fans to support them. They're thousands of miles away on the West Coast. Last week was a fortunate matchup as they faced Tampa Bay, a team which was only in the playoffs because of the division it plays in. Now, they face the top team in the NFC.

The 49ers didn't play nearly their best against the Packer and they still won. They'll be better this week. Not having to travel will prove to be helpful. Now is also when the 49ers will benefit from their Wildcard Rd bye, a luxury which the Lions didn't have.

This is the best Detroit team in some time but the 49ers are better on both sides of the ball. San Francisco was third in points scored per game while Detroit finished fifth. The bigger difference is on the other side of the ball. The 49ers’ defense finished third in points allower per game while the Lions finished 23rd in that category.

They say that defense wins championships. Lay the points and expect that saying to ring true of the NFC Championship game on Sunday.

We've grown used to the Chiefs having a great offense and Patrick Mahomes working magic in the playoffs. It's hard to think otherwise. The Chiefs offense isn't great right now though. And Mahomes has never had to play a road playoff game. He's played in 3 Super Bowls but that's not a true road environment. Mahome's other 12 playoff games have all come at home. Now, he plays in cold, hostile Buffalo where he'll go up against some of the most passionate fans in the league and be opposed by a Bills teams which is playing its best football.

After a sluggish start, Buffalo has been winning for weeks. This team is ready to get the KC monkey off its back. Twice, the Chiefs have eliminated them from the playoffs. The Bills beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead in the regular season to earn the right to play this game here. At home, the Bills are are better on both sides of the ball They're 8-1 here, outscoring teams by a 29.7 to 15 average score. The Chiefs' regular season issues will rear their heads and the Bills will win and cover on Sunday night.

This is a great storyline as it pits Jared Goff against Matthew Stafford. You probably know that those two quarterbacks were traded for each other. Stafford played many years in Detroit. Goff played several for the Rams. Both QBs are still extremely capable. Both did well to guide their teams this far. The Lions have some important other advantages.

It stars with playing at home. With Michigan having just won the championship and the Lions favored to win this one, fans in Detroit are in a frenzy. They will play a role. The Lions won 6 of 8 games here, covering 5. The Rams were a modest 5-4 on the road.

Goff has better weapons than Stafford. The Lions score more than 27 points a game. The Rams score less than 24. Both defenses allow roughly the same number of points overall but the Lions allow 21.6 per game at home compared to the Rams' 23.8 allowed on the road.

The projected high-scoring game favors the Lions. They are 11-2 ATS their last 13 when the total was set at 49.5 or higher, 6-1 ATS in home games wiht a total of 49.5 or higher. The Rams are just 3-6 ATS their last 9 when the total was set at 49.5 or higher. Lay the small number! ***WC GOY***

Miami wasn't good last week. That will cause a lot of people to stay away or to back Buffalo. When handicapping the NFL, its important to learn from the previous week but its also important to be able to "wash away" recency bias. Many bettors base too much of their handicapping on what they just saw, forgetting about what may been going on all season.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel provided some perspective: "If we had said that after Week 4 that we're going to play this Buffalo team again, and it will be the last game of the season for the division crown, I think everyone would have accepted that. That's some perspective that I talked to the team about. Their eyes were laser focused -- they will be eager to wash away this past game. The only way you can do that is to prepare for the next one."

Miami was on the road for the bad Baltimore loss and for the previous loss to Buffalo. The Dolphins are now at home where they are 7-1 on the season. The Bills are also 7-1 at home but they're only 3-4 on the road.

They haven't fared well in the series for years but the Dolphins did win 21-19 the last game played at Miami. In what will likely be another close game, homefield will again make the difference. Grab the points! ***GAME OF MONTH***

The Ravens looked pretty convincing against the 49ers but the Dolphins are a different type of team. Miami averages more than 30 points a game and the defense has gotten progressively stronger.

Baltimore scores a lot but Miami scores more. Last season, the Ravens scored 38 against the Dolphins and it still wasn't enough. Miami won 42-38.

The Ravens are off that big statement win on National TV. That was on Monday night on the West Coast. They're now traveling back across the country to play an early game on a short week.

The Dolphins have something to prove and Baltimore linebacker Queen added fuel to the fire by talking about "teams being cute and playing basketball on grass."

The Dolphins have won 5 of their last 6 and the only loss came by 1. They will prove to the world that they aren't soft on Sunday. ***AFC GOY***

Off consecutive losses, the Cowboys really need this one. They are still fighting the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. The Lions do still want a first round bye but they are off consecutive wins and have already locked up first place in the division. In my estimation, this game is more important to the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are an entirely different team at home. They pounded the Eagles 33-13 last game here. They are outscoring teams 39.9 to 15.4 in games here. I played against them in the only game that they didn't cover here but the Cowboys are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their 7 home games.

Prescott has 20 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions in the games here, completing 74% of his passed. Coach McCarthy said this of the Cowboys' homefield advantage: "We've been able to get into a rhythm early and be able to just keep your foot on the gas. The crowds have been great."

Detroit gets a reality check and Dallas stays perfect at home. ***NFC GOM***

The Giants are going to wish they never played this game. The Eagles are angry and they will dominate the Giants this afternoon. NY just lost by 18 and this is a far more dangerous opponent. The Eagles are 6-3-2 against the spread last 11 times that they were favored and that includes a 2-1 mark as home favorites of 10.5 to 14 points. They are 11-7 against the spread their last 18 in that situation. The Eagles have won the last 4 meetings and 3 of those wins came by 24 or more points. Lay the points. ***Christmas Day Dominator***

The Titans are dealing with injuries but they are still giving everything they've got. Seattle, which has its own injury problems, kept its hopes alive with a big win last week but that was by 3 points on the final play. The Seahawks had lost their previous 3 and are now playing on a short week. They are 2-5 on the road. The Titans are 4-2 at home. Since a 7-point win to close out November, the Titans have seen all 3 of their games decided by 3 or less. The Titans won the last meeting by 3 points, in OT. They are 15-6-4 against the spread their last 25 against AFC West opposition. This will likely be another close one. Grab the points.

Give me the points with Jacksonville. The Ravens are strong but Jacksonville plays best against good teams. The Jaguars are 5-2 against the spread against winning teams. It helps their cause against the Ravens that the Jaguars are the 4th best team in the NFL at stopping the run. They allow only 92.2 yards on the ground, per game. The offense is in good hands with an improving Trevor Lawrence. The Jax QB said this: "It's feeling better. Thankfully, I made out of the game pretty clean. I didn't re-aggravate it anymore. I'm just trying to keep getting better every day. Hopefully it feels even better this week. I was able to move around decent on Sunday, so that was positive." The Jaguars beat the Ravens by 1 point last year. That was an exciting 28-27 victory. This will be another close one and I look for the Jaguars to again get it done. ***SNF GOY**

Miami may be the flavor of the month but this is far too many points. The Titans manhandled this Miami team last season. Henry didn't even play and they still rushed for 198 yards. The Titans sacked Tua 4 times. He threw an interception and fumbled 3 times. Granted, that was in cold, rainy Nashville and this will be in much warmer Miami. The point remains that Tennessee matched up very well with Miami les than a year ago. This season, six of the Titans' 8 losses came by 14 or less. Vrabel's is liked and respected by the Titan players. They are well aware that is job could be in jeopardy. This is their chance to go out and play hard for him under the National spotlight, going all out for their first road win. This game will be close and I'm grabbing the points. ***MNF GOY***

I had a big win with Philadelphia in the first meeting. I remember that game well. So do the Cowboys, who will be thinking payback when they host the hated Eagles on Sunday night. Their loss at Philadelphia continued a disturbing trend for Dallas of losing against top teams. The Cowboys will be determined to change that and make things right. They want to prove to themselves and to the world that they don't just beat the bad teams. The setup is perfect. The Cowboys have had had some extra time to rest up and prepare, due to their Thanksgiving game. The Eagles just got a reality check out from the 49ers. Before that, they'd taken on the Bills and Chiefs. All those games against elite teams are going to take a toll. Dallas outscores teams by an average of 14 points. The Eagles outscore teams by an average of 3 points. Dallas is undefeated at home this season and is 7-2 against the spread last 9 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Give me the Cowboys. ***Revenge GOY***

Off a loss to Arizona, the Steelers are 3-3 over their last 6 games. All 3 of their wins came by 6 points or less. The Patriots lost by 14 at Miami in October. That's the only of their past 7 games which was decided by more than 6 points. Every other game has been ultra-close. The defense has allowed 10 points or less in 3 straight. That makes beating the Patriots by more than 6 points very difficult. The Patriots may score the fewest points but the Steelers aren't far behind. They average only 16 a game. A bad Steeler offense against a great New England defense. With the Steelers 0-5 against the spread the past 5 times that they were home favorites of 3.5 to 7, I'm happy to take the points. ***TNF GOM***

The Bengals struggled in Browning's first start. He's gotten his feet wet now and will be better from the experience. He also expects to have Tee Higgins back, a luxury he didn't have against Baltimore. Browning, who did complete 19 of 26 passes for 227 yards against the Ravens, said this of Higgins: "Tee's one of the top receivers in the NFL. I don't think can really put into words how important he is to this offense ... there's just something that Tee brings the table being as big, as fast and having the experience he does, where it's always nice to have him and Ja'Marr on the outside." The Bengals are 15-7 against the spread their last 22 as underdogs. The Jaguars won by 3 last game and have only won one of their last 5 games by more than 10. Grab the points! **NFL GOW**

These teams met in October, at Indianapolis. The Colts won. That's not surprising given that the Titans are 0-6 on the road. The Titans are an entirely different team here at home though. They're 4-1 in games at Tennessee. They have outscored teams by an average of 24.8 to 15 here. They are 4-1 against the spread the last 5 tries as a home underdog of 3 or less. The Colts recent wins have been against bad teams. They are 5-11 against the spread in divisional play their last 16. Give me Tennessee at home! **AFC South GOY**

The Cowboys have been clobbering bad teams. The Seahawks aren't a bad team though and Dallas has far more trouble with better teams. Dallas is only 4-8 against the spread last 12 against winning teams. The Cowboys also have a very big game upcoming against the Eagles next week. Off their Thanksgiving Day romp and looking ahead to that game, Seattle could be overlooked. Seattle is 7-3 against the spread last 10 tries after losing 2 or more games in a row. Grab the points! ***NFC GOM***

Ridder is back and he will have learned from his time on the sideline. The Atlanta QB commented: "You get a different perspective of not only yourself but the offense as a whole. There are a lot of things where I'd like to have gone back and done better. I could've protected the ball better, but there are a lot of (instances) where I could've done things to not be in those situations, whether it's footwork or your reads or your progressions." The Falcons are 3-1 at home this season with Ridder starting. Last season's games were both decided by 3 or less and the game here at Atlanta was decided by a single point. The Saints are only 7-15-1 against the spread their last 23 as favorites, 2-5-1 as road favorites of a field goal or less. Falcons are already 2-0 within the division. Homefield will make the difference. ***NFC South GOM***

Getting extra value with the Jets due to the QB situation. The reality is that the QB change should only help. Wilson was terrible! Boyle has something to prove. The Jets defense is better than Miami's defense. The Jets are 6-3 against the spread the last 9 times that they were off a division loss. Last meeting was decided by 5 points. Three of last 4 meetings all decided by 7 or less and the other was a big NY win. Grab the points! **AFC EAST GOW**

The Rams have their number but the Seahawks will bounce back with a big effort on Thanksgiving! Seattle has won 8 of the past 10 home meetings against San Francisco. The two losses came by an average of 6.5 points. Pete Carroll likes Geno Smith's chances of starting: “"They’re taking a look at it but they pretty much know what’s going on there. It’s just see how soon it settles down. Like I said, it’s a good sign that he’s functional so that’s not the issue, so it’s just how sore he is. He’ll make it back." SF, which has a revenge game against the Eagles on deck, is 3-2 on the road. Seattle is 4-1 at home. The 49ers might fare better in the Dec. 10th rematch but Seattle is the right way to go on Thursday. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!

Detroit fans have been waiting for a long time for this. A Thanksgiving Day game where they've got a good team and where they can count on a big win. That day is here! The Lions are the real deal. The Packers are not. I've had this opinion from Day 1. This is what I said prior to Detroit's 34-20 win at Lambeau in September:

Its early but this game will likely go a long way in ultimately determining the division champion. After years of suffering, Detroit and its fans desperately want this. You can't always get what you want but in this case, the Detroit faithful will finally be rewarded. The Lions have been stockpiling talent over the years and now have a better team than the Packers. That's why they're small favorites, despite the game being played at Lambeau. You may be surprised to learn that the Lions are 10-2 ATS their last 12 divisional games. They're also 3-0 ATS their past three Thursday night games. The Lions, who already won at Arrowhead, have arguably faced stiffer competition than the Packers. They'll find a way to win this game and to seize early control of the division. ***NFC North GOY

Now the Lions get to complete the sweep in front of the entire country. Their time has come. They are 16-6 against the spread their last 22 home games. They had a 211-27 edge in rushing yards in the first meeting! As they were in September, they will be too much for the Packers to handle! ***NFC North GOM

The Chiefs won when it really counted but the Eagles will exact a little revenge tonight. The Chiefs are only scoring 23.1 points a game this season. The Eagles score 28. The Eagles have only lost once all season. They were winning that game entering the 4th quarter and had a big edge in yards and first downs. The Chiefs have two losses and they've had a few close wins. Remember, the Eagles were ahead 27-21 entering the 4th quarter in the Super Bowl. They've been waiting for this day. They're 7-3 against the spread the last 10 times they were off a division win. This night will belong to them! ***MNF GOM***

Getting points with Seattle is a nice bonus seeing as I've got the Seahawks winning this game. The Rams are getting Stafford back but they've still got a lot of issues. They are 0-8 straight-up their last 8 November games. Stafford hasn't played in some time but Geno Smith closed out last game on a high and comes in with confidence. The Seahawks are battling San Francisco and cannot afford another loss to the Rams. They will get revenge from the Week 1 loss. ***Road Warrior***

The Bills really shot themselves in the foot last week. What were they even doing in that close a game in the first place? Rest assured, they will emerge stronger from the experience. The Bills will be a team on a mission this week. Nobody will get in their way. Not the stumbling Jets, who scored 18 combined points in losing their last 2 games. The Jets average 16 points a game, the Bills average more than 26. The Jets are 1-4 against the spread (0-5 straight-up) in five tries when the total was between 35.5 to 42. The Bills are 5-2-1 against the spread (7-1 straight up) last 8 when up against an opponent with a losing record in the second half of the season. This will not be a friendly environment! Bills win big!

Denver showed up to the wrong party. The Broncos have shown some signs of life. But their season is still done. The Bills are angry from their loss at Cincinnati. They're 4-0 straight-up at home. The Bills score 26.7 points a game. The Broncos score 21.5. The Bills allow only 17.8 points a game. The Broncos allow 28.3. Better on both sides of the ball and playing at home, Buffalo will blow out the Broncos and make a statement on National TV. ***MNF MasterClass***

If you look at the points scored and allowed, the overall numbers are pretty close. Both teams score the same amount of points. The Chargers allow about 1 more point per game. Detroit does come in fresh, as last week was a bye. The Chargers are playing their best football now though and the Lions are playing thousands of miles away from home. They were obliterated their last road game. The Charger defense has especially improved of late. They will keep rolling and pull off the upset this afternoon! ***Non-Conf GOM

Big battle in Philadelphia! This is a heated rivalry and both teams come in hot. The Eagles have the significant advantage of playing at home. They're 3-0 here. Dallas is 2-2 on the road. The home team won both meetings last year. Cowboys by 6 at Dallas. Eagles by 9 at Philadelphia. The Cowboys are good at beating on the weak and mediocre teams. The last time they played a team currently with a winning record, they got destroyed! Heck, this team even lost by 12 at Arizona! The Eagles lost a close one against a really good Jets defense but otherwise have had no such slip-ups. Last time they took on a top level team, they throttled Miami. This season's seven wins have come by an average of more than eight points. Six of the wins were by 5 or more points and all 6 came by at least a field goal. Lay the points with the Eagles! ***nfc east goy

The Frankfurt fans get treated to a good one as both these division leaders are sitting at 6-2. Two very capable offenses but only one team which combines that with a great defense. Miami allows 25.5 points per game. Kansas City allows 16.1 points per game. The Dolphins have dominated as favorites but are only 1-2 against the spread when they find themselves in the underdog role. The Chiefs thrive in these type of games. They're 10-3 against the number the past 13 times that they played a game where the pointspread ranged from plus 3 to minus 3. They'll be the first AFC team to reach seven wins this season. ***early-bird

Much of the talk will focus on the quarterbacks. That's obviously important. Things like the Steelers getting back Cameron Heyward are also very important but will be mostly glossed over. He makes their run defense better. TJ Watt said this: "He's a difference-maker. He really is. He's been doing it for a long time. A guy that's played in this matchup more than a few times himself, and anytime you can plug in a player like him, it's going to make a difference, no matter what." Back to the QB's. The Titans' rookie had a big debut but he will find things more difficult on a short week, on the road, at Pittsburgh. The Titans are only 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games against teams from the AFC North. The Steelers are 13-6-1 against the spread the past 20 times that the played with a line ranging from +3 to -3. The Steelers are also 4-0 their last four against against the Titans. They continue their Tennessee dominance tonight! ***tnf goy

The Colts and Saints each endured tough losses in their last game. They've now each dropped two in a row. The Saints are in better position to get back on the winning track. Indianapolis QB Minshew has turned the ball over 8 times in his past 2 starts. New Orleans Derek Carr hasn't been perfect but I'll gladly take him over Minshew. Carr: "We're getting better and we're going to be OK. But there's no more time. The emphasis is on now. We have a lot of hope and encouragement, but we do feel the pressure to get a win." Benefitting from a few extra days in between games, New Orleans responds to the pressure with a victory. *Road Warrior

These teams are on different levels. Every team has had a bad game or two. Buffalo included. The Bills are still a Super Bowl contender. The Bucs can't say the same thing. Tampa is pretty solid on defense. Buffalo is even better. On the offensive side, the Bucs are terrible and the Bills are great. Buffalo averages 28.3 points. Tampa averages 17.2. Speaking of the offense, Josh Allen is 5-0 on Thursday Night Football and he's got a passer rating of 107.7 in those five games! The Bucs, 2-11 ATS their last 13 Thursday games, are only 2-7 ATS their last nine as underdogs. Bills are 10-2 straight-up their last 12 against NFC teams. They'll move to 11-2 by blowing out the Buccaneers on Thursday night. *Hot Route

Really like that the division-leading Lions got crushed yesterday. Combine that with the Packer loss and the Vikings should have a little boost. A win tonight now has them with the second most wins in the division and with the Lions looking vulnerable. San Francisco is good but not invincible. The 49'ers are off a tough loss. They're dealing wih the injuries and playing their second straight on the road. The Vikings are off a win, their second in three games. The lone loss came by a touchdown against the Chiefs. Since a bad New Year's Day loss at Lambeau, the Vikings have played eight games. None of those eight games resulted in a loss of more than 7 points. One big Minnesota win and another Minnesota win by eight points. The other six were all decided by seven or less. Give me the points.

The wins haven't come but the Broncos have shown signs of life. My feeling is that they will break through with a victory this afternoon. The Packers are off back-to-back losses and have dropped three of four. The only win was by a single point. Green Bay coach La Fleur summed it up: "It's just a lot of inconsistent play. It's been very choppy. We haven't been able to get into a consistent rhythm." Wilson has an 0-4 record (54.3 QB rating) at Lambeau but he's 3-0 with a 107.6 QB rating against the Packers at home. Broncos win. *Non-Conf GOW

The Atlanta offense is showing real signs of life and we can expect Desmond Ridder to pick up his first road win. The result was disappointing but the Falcons dominated time of possession and racked up more than 400 yards against Washington. They had a 25-12 edge in first downs and outgained the Commanders 402-193! They also statistically dominated Houston the previous game. My feeling is that Atlanta is a team on the rise and that Tampa is likely going the other way. The Bucs got dominated last game and their only home win was against the Bears. Tampa is 2-5-1 ATS its last eight as a home favorite of a field goal or less. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS its last four as a road underdog of a field goal or less. Grab the points. *NFC South GOY

In my opinion, the Saints are legit. They humiliated Bill Belichick and the Patriots. The 34-0 shellacking was the worst home loss, under Belichick. The defense was stellar, as it has been all season. Carr was clicking and Kamara found the end zone. That formula will serve them well against Houston. The Texans have had two big wins but they've also had two double-digit losses. They lost a close one at Atlanta last game. Now they are back home where they are only 3-15-1 their last 19. The Saints defense, better against both the run and the pass and allowing just 15 points per game, will be the difference. *Road Warrior

I wasn't at all surprised that the Bengals beat Arizona last week. It was a break-out game for Burrow, Chase and the Bengal offense. On the other side, the defense also elevated its play. Cincinnati will carry that confidence into Sunday afternoon's home game against Seattle. The Seahawks are off a bye. That's not always helpful! The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS their last 2 off a bye. Long-term? They're 12-23 ATS with a push, the last 36 times they were off a bye. Even off the bye, the Hawks aren't entirely healthy. The Bengals have won 15 of their last 21 home games and we don't have to worry about laying a big number. Arizona was a losing team but the Bengals are also 16-4 straight-up and 15-5 against the spread against winning teams. They''ll get back to .500 and add to those stats Sunday afternoon. *NFL GOY

The last two seasons have seen the Chiefs go 3-7 against the spread in Week 5 to Week 9. KC will have its hands full. The loss to the Jets was costly but Denver has shown signs of life in back-to-back games. As bad as the Broncos record is, they've been competitive in every game but one. The loss to Miami was ugly but the all four of the other games were decided by 10 or less, three of them by three or less. The Chiefs have also been playing close games. They messed up Chicago but their other four games were all decided by eight points or less. Four of the past five meetings were decided by six or less including each of the past three. This will be another close one. Grab all those points! *Thursday Night Football GOM

I was against the Raiders last week, when they lost their road game versus the Chargers. At home against a Green Bay team which looked terrible last week, Las Vegas will achieve a more favorable result. I happily cashed my ticket against them but the Raiders did some things that impressed me. They finished the game with more first downs (22-16) than the Chargers, as well as an advantage in terms of time of possession. That was with a rookie, making his first start at QB. Now the Raiders get Garoppolo back. Jimmy said this: "Feeling good. I think we're in a good spot. We had a good practice out there, had a good rhythm and a good tempo to us." Remember that Garoppolo has former Packer Davante Adams to throw to and that the star receiver tends to thrive under the national spotlight. Facing his old team, don't be surprised when Adams becomes the first player in NFL history to go over 100 receiving yards five times in a row on Monday night. That will pave the way to a Raider victory. *MNF GOM

Are the Bengals as bad as they've looked? Are the Cardinals as good as they've looked? My answer to both questions is "No." It's my belief that those answers will become clear this afternoon and that the Bengals will take advantage of a less talented opponent. They didn't show it at Tennessee last week but the Bengals have been true road warriors. They're 17-7 ATS their last 24 away from Cincinnati, 4-2 ATS as road favorites. Bengals are better on both sides of the ball. Lay the small number. *Road Warrior

Baltimore crushed Cleveland last week. Pittsburgh got pounded by Houston. So, why play on the Steelers? The NFL is a funny league and it's important not to over-react to the previous week's games. It's also important to understand that those results are helping to get us some extra points with Pittsburgh. The fact is that the Ravens are now playing their second straight divisional road game and third divisional road game in the past four weeks. Their injuries are mounting, too. Even with the win over the Browns, they're still an awful 9-17 ATS their last 26 as favorites. After their previous divisional road win, the Ravens lost outright to the Colts in their next game. The Steelers are 15-10 ATS as underdogs, during the same time period. Tomlin's team responded to it first loss by bouncing back with an upset of a divisional rival. The plan is for Pittsburgh to win this game outright. Getting points in this rivalry is always nice though. The last four meetings were all decided by three or less! The last six meetings were all decided by five or less. In what will likely be another close encounter, grab the points. *AFC North GOY

Both teams are 1-2. The winner will be back in the thick of things. The loser will be in big trouble. It's my opinion that the Chargers are the real deal and that the Raiders are not. Chargers lost a pair of close ones and easily could have won both. Raiders got destroyed last road game and followed it up by losing to Pittsburgh in primetime. LA is much better offensively. Chargers averaging 416.7 yards per game. Raiders averaging 287.7. Chargers averaging 28.7 points, Raiders averaging 15. Problem for the Raiders is that the Chargers are probably also better defensively. Then, there's the Raiders QB issues with Jimmy G in concussion protocol. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels commented: We're at the mercy of the testing and all the rest of it. He'll go through the normal set of tests. We'll see if he clears." Garoppolo may well play. Even if he does, or if its Hoyer or O'Connell, it's not going to make a difference. Chargers big. *AFC West GOY

The Steelers looked better than the Raiders last week. They were at home for the second straight week though. The Raiders were playing a road game against one of the best team's in the NFL, their second straight on the road. This time, it's the Raiders who will benefit from being at home. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS the past five instances where they were home favorites of three or less. During that time, the Steelers are 2-3 ATS when off a divisional win. Off their win over the Browns and playing on a short week (Remember, Pittsburgh's last game was on MNF.) the Steelers will struggle. They won a close on against the Raiders at Pittsburgh last meeting but the Raiders are still 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. They'll be fired up for the home opener and will come away with the win and cover. *NFL GOW

The Saints and Panthers meet up in a key NFC South match up. If last week is anything to go by, the Saints will rely on the arm of Carr to put up points, hopefully more than last week's 16.  For the Panthers, it will be all about the run as newbie QB Young looks like he will need some time to adjust.  Both of these teams faced run-heavy teams in game one.  The Saints held King Henry to 4.3/63 yards. Carolina allowed 130 yds rushing to the Falcons. The Saints pass defense ate up Tannehill and Co. last week.  Facing rookie Bryce Young, who finished with a passer rating of under 50, it will be no contest.  The Panthers allowed Ridder a 111 rating, even when sacking him 4 times.

Carr looked effective if turnover-prone, throwing for 282 passing yards, with a Passer Rating of 96.  He was harried especially in the first half, but put up impressive totals in yards if not points none the less.  The Saints will have to improve on passer protection as Carr was sacked 4 times. He has very good targets this year, including a very speedy rookie in Shaheed.  With Carolina missing a key CB in Horn, the Saints will be able to move the ball in the air effectively.  It is hard to see where Carolina's points will come from on Sunday.  New Orleans gave up zero rush and pass TDs last week, and this is not a strong offense. The favored Saints should win and cover in Prime Time on Monday night.

Tua is the talk of the town after that massive pass attack in Week one.  The Dolphins will face a much tougher defense on Sunday and he is unlikely to get as much time or as little pressure in Week two.  Let's bear in mind that the Dolphins barely won the game, had little running game and the defense really struggled, especially vs the run.  New England's offense including Jones, impressed in week one.  They were unlucky to lose against a tough Eagles team, but as far as Jones' passing game goes, I am still not sold.  Is the Dolphins' defense really as poor as they looked in week one? They were projected to be much improved this year. I believe that adjustments can and will be made, but they are up against Belichik who will have a very considered game plan.  The Dolphins are a small favorite today.  The Patriots' offense does not have the dynamism of the Chargers and with Tua healthy and his fine targets ready, the Dolphins can really score in a hurry.   I believe the Dolphins offense will be very tough to slowdown this early in the season.  Take Miami  to  win and cover.

As dominant as the Rams were in game one vs the Seahawks, their chances of upsetting the 49ers are slim.  Stafford had a field day vs Seattle but was very well protected (0 sacks).  It is highly unlikely that Stafford will have near as much time to operate on Sunday.  The Rams again don't appear to be focusing on the run again this year, and even if they did, SF is very tough on the ground.  The 49ers had 5 sacks last week, and Stafford is not the most mobile of passers.  Purdy, on the other hand, saw a lot of TJ Watt last week, was sacked 3 times, but he still finished with a very solid game, ending with a 111 passer rating.  Purdy has, as we know, great targets,and he put to rest some of the concerns about his success this year. The 49ers ran for 144 yards with McCaffrey leading the way.  He has been a huge thorn in the side of the Rams in past meetings.  The lack of a Rams run game, and the toughness and skill of the 49ers as a complete entity will be more than the Rams can handle.  Look for SF to  give Purdy better protection, and take SF to win and cover.

The Packers appeared the more impressive team in Week One, but played against an arguably weaker opponent and may have key players sitting this week. Both young QBs ended with solid ratings.  Ridder was accurate, but relied heavily on a very short game with just 91 yards passing.  The Falcon's' O line did not support him well, allowing four sacks, but is a good bet for improvement in Game 2.  Love looked very good in the second half, had plenty of time, but completed just 55% of his passes.  He will face much more pressure this week from Atlanta's defense. The Falcons  effectively shut down the Panthers' pass attack, albeit against a rookie QB, last week.

The Falcons' run-centric offense with Allgeier and Robinson was very effective last week (130 yards rushing/ 5 yards per carry)  The Packers weren't great against the run, allowing the Bears 122 yards and 4.2 yards per attempt.  The potential loss or compromise  of Green Bay's RB Jones is very significant.  He was the driving force last week for the Packers and won't easily be replaced, as Dillon was ineffective last week.  This could be a very close game, but Packers' injuries  and the Falcons' new and improved defense will make the difference.  take the Falcons to win and cover.

The Eagles won unconvincingly in week one vs the Patriots.  The Vikings stumbled to a loss against a projected weaker opponent in the Bucs in their first game.  The Vikings put up a ton of passing yards, as usual, but weren't great in the red zone and gave up the ball three times.  They barely attempted a run game, finishing with just 41 yds on 17 attempts.  A one dimensional offense will be an issue against the Eagles' likely formidable pass pressure.  Philadelphia will be down a running back, but do have other options including, of course, Hurts.  The Vikings project to be a much softer defense than the Eagles' Game One opponent.  The Vikings allowed 25 points last week and Hurts and the Eagles will be a large step up from Mayfield's Buccaneer offense.  Cousins is notorious for poor play in the limelight.  Much like last year, the Eagles, after an underwhelming game one, again face  the Vikings at home.  Look for a similar outcome as the Eagles win and cover.

The Seahawks, off a fine training camp, face the Rams, without Cupp at home.  The Seahawks are a young Carroll-lead team who essentially rebuilt the defense, especially vs the run, their Achilles heel last year. Look for much improved performance on D with another season under the belt for last year's rookies , plus additions including a Bobby Wagner reunite.  Geno Smith impressed last year, especially in the early season.  While I am not as big on Smith as many seem to be, he has fine targets, including a potentially great rookie as a third WR.  With Walker playing and Charbonnet, we could see more of a run game from the Seahawks this season.  The Rams defense is centered on Donald, but after him, it is very much depleted.  This is a team that gave up 41 points to the Broncos in an albeit meaningless preseason game last week.  Stafford, when he played last year, was lost without Cupp.  The Rams' best bet will be to test the new Seahawks run defense, but I don't see them putting up many points on Sunday.  Look for Seattle, at home, to win and cover easily.

The Cardinals in absolute rebuild mode, are without their starting QB, did not add to last year's dismal pass defense, and have 11 rookies on the roster.  Dobbs will likely start under center, so expect a run-focused offense from the Cardinals.  Meanwhile the Commanders have a sold out opener,  3 straight victories in preseason, if you are counting, and a projected very tough defense.  Washington doesn't yet know what they have in Howell but the 2nd year pro is very mobile  at least, and he has great targets, especially if McLaurin is playing.  At their best last year, the Commanders ground out wins with a relentless rush offense, but very little dynamism in the air. Howell, while remaining a question mark,  looks to be an improvement.  The Commanders' defense especially  the pass rush will over-match the Cardinal' shaky offense on Sunday.  Take Washington, with the crowd, to win and cover.

The Chiefs have now won the Super Bowl in two out of the last four years and I think they carry over that momentum here on Opening night. The Lions took a big step forward last year and the expectations could not be higher in Detroit. 

Of these two teams though, it's the Lions that I feel could suffer a big letdown this year. 

There are still plenty of question marks about this Detroit defense, and despite Patrick Mahomes having some new faces in his offense, I just can't see the Chiefs floundering here on Opening Night. In fact, I expect the opposite, as they look to run up the score early and take control of this one from the "get go." 

With back-to-back home games after this vs. Seattle and Atlanta, I say Detroit gets caught looking ahead. 

Lay the points, the play is KC.

Here it comes!  The Eagles and the Chiefs meet up for all the marbles.  Mahomes continued his path to possible "GOAT" status with an inspired Conference Final game while obviously playing hurt. So why not another win on Super Sunday?
Injuries:  Mahomes may be healthier but what about KC's WRs?  The Chiefs have a lot more question marks around who will play on both sides of the ball.  The Eagles are basically healthy.
Passing defense:  #1 vs #19.  The Eagles are a legit number one pass defense; tops in all aspects.  the Chiefs barely beat the Bengals with a just average pass defense.  It will be much much tougher for the Chiefs to move the ball in the air this coming Sunday.  The Eagles are formidable in passer pressure, and Mahomes is still likely not 100% mobile.
Run game:  The Eagles have a good one, and the added advantage of a fine rushing passer.  Considering the low % of rush plays the Chiefs face on average (26% last game), the Chiefs can be run on when it suits the opposition.  Enter Hurts and the Eagles run-first offense, plus a defense that will limit the Chiefs' pass opportunities.
Let's do the Math. The Combination of a better Eagles defense (pass and run) added to a more flexible Philly offense equals an Eagles win.  Take Philadelphia to win and cover.   
 

The Bengals were a road favorite just a few days ago, but with clarification about Mahomes' availability, this game is now a pick'em.  The Bengals have had more success than any team against the Chiefs.  Against the Bills last week, the Bengals' offense was the complete package. Burrow threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns, and the run game put up a huge 160+ yards against a tough Bills run defense.  The defense dominated, limiting the Bills to just 60 rush yards, and Allen to no passing TDs.
The Chiefs are not above giving up points, especially in the air (32nd ranked in pass TDs allowed), and there will be concern about Mahomes' mobility, not to mention the three straight losses against the Bengals.
Not to underestimate Mahomes and the Chiefs, but Burrow is the prince in waiting, the Cincinnati run game put up some big numbers, and the Bengals' defense really impressed.  Take the Bengals to win and cover.

PLEASE NOTE: This pick was previously posted as favoring the Chiefs, when the write-up clearly stated that it was a selection on the Bengals. It has since been corrected. Call it pilot error: I clicked the wrong button.  My apologies for the confusion.

The Eagles have home field and the crowd on Sunday, but face a 49ers team that has been completely dominant in the second half of the season. Both teams are healthy but the 49ers face some question marks around Samuel and their starting running backs. Philadelphia whipped the Giants, but it has not been smooth sailing while Hurts was injured.  He put concerns about his shoulder to rest last week but faces the league's best run defense this week and will likely have to throw the ball more. The SF defense is more susceptible in the air and has also not faced a good rushing QB since Mariotta and the Falcons.  Atlanta won that game convincingly.

49ers' QB Purdy has been an eye-opener this season. He does what he is told to do more than competently, and with very few mistakes.  The kid appears to have ice water in his veins, but he did struggle against a very good Cowboys pass defense and saw his passer rating drop by 40 points last week.  The 49ERS are a rush-first team, but the bulk of their points still come in the air.  While they can be run on, the Eagles have THE elite pass defense in the league and pressure a passer like no-one else.
I have waffled about this game, but believe the variety of the Eagles' offense will win out in the end.  Hurts does too many things well to discount and has experience on his side.  Purdy will have to be better than he ever has been under intense pressure from the crowd, nerves and that superlative Eagles pass defense.  Take the Eagles to win and cover.

Two very fine teams, both off huge wild card victories, meet up on Sunday.  We are looking at the 4th and 5th best offenses, and the 5th and 6th best defenses, so there is no obvious advantage.  That said, each defense has weak point. For Dallas, it is the run game; 21st rated though improving lately.  The 49ers' soft spot is their pass defense.  They are 20th in pass yards allowed and 22 in completion rate.
Prescott pulled apart the Bucs' very good pass defense last week, and looked exceptionally sharp. Vs the Commanders the week before, it was the combination of Washington's top pass defense and the Commanders' ability to exploit Dallas's poorer run defense that led to the Commanders' success.
The Cowboys can run the ball but it will be tough to move vs the 49ers' elite run defense, however Prescott should be able to continue his fine passing play against the weaker 49ers' pass defense.  The 49ers can and will run the ball vs Dallas, but the bulk of their points are coming via the pass.  Purdy will face a very tough and active Cowboys' pass defense, the best he has faced yet.  Although he hasn't played like it, Purdy is still a rookie with limited experience in a very very big game.  While it will likely be a very close game, I am going with the more experienced passer today.  Take the Cowboys with the points, now more than a field goal.

The Bengals travel to Buffalo to play in the snow tomorrow against a favored Bills team.  The Dolphins, the best pass-centric team the Bills have faced this year, put up 81 points in three games against Buffalo this year, winning once and losing the others by 3 points.  The Bengals are an elite pass-first team with a far better defense than Miami's. With the spread now at 6 points, I am not at all confident that the Bills can put this game away, in spite of Cincinnati's O-line injuries. Burrow, of all passers, is the least likely to be seriously affected by O line deficiencies. Very high sack totals has been the norm for him until this year, and he has thrived anyway.  The cold weather has not affected him, he loves the limelight, and he and the Bengals are unlikely to be affected by crowd noise.
At times last week, Allen moved the ball with ease against the Dolphins, but his slew of picks and fumbles in recent games is concerning.  The Bengals play a very clean game when it comes to turnovers. A game-deciding mistake is far more likely to come from Allen and the Bills this week.
On paper Buffalo has the edge in defense, especially rush defense. The Bengals are unlikely to run the ball excessively, and as far as points-allowed goes, Cincinnati has the upper hand, with 17 on average L3 games, and 17 last week compared to the Bills' 22 points allowed L3 and 31 last week.
In the last ill-fated and shortened meeting of these two teams, The Bengals were moving the ball with ease.  Look for a close game tomorrow, and take the Bengals plus the points.

The Giants face the Eagles at home in the divisional round.  This should be no contest considering their respective positions in the standings, but I believe it will be a much closer game and here is why.  
-Jalen Hurts is playing but in all likelihood is not completely healthy, and I doubt he is capable of going all-in on Saturday. We have seen how the Eagles fare without Hurts, and he did not impress in week 18.
-The Giants are inspired by their situation. Daboll has their attention, and he and they seem to learn from their mistakes this season.  A case in point; the Giants lost to the Vikings in week 16.  Three weeks later, in the biggest of games, they roll out a win over Minnesota.
-As good as the Eagles are against the pass, they have been susceptible on the ground. The Giants moved the ball in week 18 missing Barkley and Jones. Look for much better results this week.
-It isn't just the Eagles offense that has struggled in recent games.  Phillie's offense lacks some of the lustre we saw earlier in the season. While their passer pressure has remained a constant, their passing yards allowed has crept up, along with all other pass categories not related to pressure.  The Giants' defense has shown general improvement down the stretch, as has the offense.

I don't expect Jones to pass for 300 yards this week, and I don't really expect the Giants to win outright, but a close game, decided by one score, is very likely.  Take the Giants, now a seven+ point underdog, with the points, as the Eagles are out-coached and held in check on Saturday.

The last really good team the Chiefs played was the Bengals and they lost. They beat the Chargers, the Jags' competition last week, by 3 points, and the rest of their recent competition hasn't been strong. This is a much better Jags team than the last time the Chiefs faced them and we are now looking at a 9 point spread. Lawrence has grown immensely as a passer and bounced back from some uncharacteristically poor play in the first halves of his last two games, so let us hope his jitters are behind him.  The weather will be been less than perfect on Saturday and the Jags have the edge in the run department, so a possible edge there. The Jags' O-line has protected Lawrence very well to date but the Chiefs are a voracious team when it comes to passer pressure. I expect a big game from Etienne on  Saturday.
Mahomes is Mahomes, but the Chiefs' record against the spread is not impressive.  This is too many points considering the Jags are on a huge and unexpected run against really tough odds this season. Look for a closer game that the line would suggest.  Take an inspired Jags team and the points.

Even after a sub .500 season it is hard to go against Brady and the Bucs.  It would be easier if Prescott were playing a little better.  A few things stand out in this match-up.  As noted in the media, the Cowboys  a. haven't won in a quite a while against the Bucs, b. don't play well on real grass, and c. Tampa, while losing more than winning this season, are above .500 at home.

The Cowboys have gotten away from their running game lately; the Bucs who are last in the league in rush yards for the season, have put up just as many yards as Dallas lately. The Bucs seldom run the ball, but did against the Cowboys in their first game and again against the Seahawks, two of their best performances this year.  The Cowboys are susceptible to the run, so it is a possibility we will see more from Fournette and the rush defense on Monday.  Brady has looked better connected to his targets, and might hold on to the ball a little longer with the season on the line. 

Prescott has no impressed at all in recent games, and it isn't just the picks he has thrown.  The offensive breakdown in a game that should have mattered last week is concerning.  Dallas could revert to the run, and should be able to move the ball vs Tampa, but in the end, given his history and his ability to move the ball when he needs to this season, I'm choosing Brady over Prescott.  Tampa is as healthy as they have been all season.  A mistake could decide this game, a pick or an interception, and it is more likely to come from Dallas. Take Tampa + the points.

It is offense vs defense when the Bengals host the Ravens on Sunday.  Resting Andrews, Dobbins and others last week, the Ravens deserted their running game, with rookie QB Anthony Brown throwing for 270+ yards, not to mention 2 picks and an end zone fumble. Credit to the kid, he did appear to settle somewhat as the game went on, and it was surprisingly easy at times for the Ravens to move the ball.  It will likely be back to Huntley, Dobbins and the running game this week against a solid Bengals run and an average pass defense. Of note, the Bengals are susceptible to longer passing plays; the Ravens averaged over 14 yards per completion last week.
Burrow threw for just 200 yards, down considerably from average, especially considering all of the Ravens' turnovers.  He has struggled against the Ravens defense this year. Baltimore limited Burrow and targets to short gains and a poor completion rate, sacking him twice. The Bengals hardly ran the ball last week.
Look for the Ravens to eat up the clock on the ground, and hopefully not turn the ball over as often.  I don't think they have enough offense to put up many points, but I do think their fine defense can make it very tough on Burrow and the Bengals.  A Ravens win is not likely in the cards, but I'm wagering on the Baltimore to keep it close.  Take the Ravens plus the points.

This will be an interesting match-up between two young QBs. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags got a taste of "lose and it is over" last week, and Lawrence did seem a little jittery vs. the Titans.  He has been a quick study in his brief history so far, and I think he will step up this week.  Etienne and the Jags' running game will be a deciding factor.  The Jags, unlike the Chargers, have some balance in their offense, and the Chargers REALLY struggle against the run.
The Chargers have a fine passer in Herbert, but they may be without Williams this week which takes a little of the juice out of their passing game.  They don't run much.  They could step that up but the Jags are tough vs the run.  The Jags defense, including their weak pass D, has improved as the season progressed. I believe it will be status quo for the Chargers pass-first offense. Can the Jags' pass defense handle Herbert and his targets?  They've averaged 3 sacks a week and have held passers to a 70 rating last three games, and an 89 rate for the season, just one point above LA's seasonal average.
The Chargers really haven't beaten anyone very impressive to get this far.  I am not sold on them as a wild card winner. The Jags have momentum, a little extra rest and have no expectations on them.  They will be at home in front of a delirious crowd.  Take the Jags to cover.  An outright win would not surprise me.

It would be hard to imagine the 49ers not emerging victorious on Saturday but the question is "by how much?"  First off, there is a huge risk of  heavy rain and wind, making for the likelihood of a run-dominated game. The Giants ran 60% of the time in their last game and have had plenty of success with it, averaging 160+ yards in their last three games. The Seahawks' defense doesn't handle the run at all well, so the 49ers would be wise to take advantage irregardless of the weather.  Seattle, and especially Walker has had rush success lately, as the Seahawks have put up even more yards than the 49ers on the ground L3  Seattle will likely have a tougher time moving the ball against an excellent SF rush defense.
The 49er's pass defense, while not exactly struggling lately, has given up more passing yards, a higher completion % and more points lately.  Smith has excellent targets, but his star is not nearly as shiny in recent games, and he will face formidable pass pressure from the 49ers.  Purdy has improved each week and is off a passer rating of 115 in his last three games, but he doesn't exactly air it out.  He is still very much a rookie, and the Seahawks' pass defense has been much better recently, with 5 sacks last week and a passer rating allowed of just 65 in their last three games.
Considering the field conditions, I think this game will be closer than expected.  Carroll will have the Seahawks prepared, and certainly the team from Emerald City are no strangers to rain.  While a win is not likely for the Seahawks, neither is a blow out.  Take Seattle plus the points

The Seahawks let the season get away after that promising start, but all is not quite lost yet. A win against the Rams gives them a statistical chance.  Seattle rallied last week, putting up 23 points against a tough Jets defense.  Smith was solid again, and a little more diverse in his targets and RB Walker is finally back in form, off a pair of 100 yard games in his last two starts.  Their defense has been the stumbling block but it has shown recent improvement against some tough competition in their last three weeks. At this point it is at least better than the Rams'.
Other than the blow-out vs a hapless Broncos team, the Rams have not impressed, especially last week against the Chargers.  Other than Mayfield the Rams don't have much to play for.  They are up against an all-in Seahawks team that is tough at home.  And, they'll be playing in the rain.  The Rams defense has taken a huge turn for the worse lately.  They gave up 430 yards last week.  Their rushing defense has disintegrated, and their pass defense, sub-par all season, allowed a 120 rating with 0 sacks last week.  They will likely continue to run the ball, but Seattle's run defense has shown well lately.
A driven Seattle team will win and cover against the Rams, as LA plays out the string after a very disappointing season.

The Ravens, missing Lamar Jackson and other starters, travel to Cincinnati, to face Burrow and the mostly healthy Bengals. Taking the emotional unknown of last week's tragic event out of the game, this is not a situation that favors Baltimore. The Bengals are very much pass-first, in spite of a fine if underused RB in Mixon.  While Baltimore is very tough against the run, the Ravens' pass defense is barely average this year, and while they've shown improvement vs the pass lately, the Ravens have not faced a top QB since the Jags.  The Ravens can successfully press a QB, but Burrow is an old hand vs passer pressure, and the Bengals O line is much improved this year.
The Ravens struggle to put up points at any time.  They are reliant on the run game, and with Jackson out, it is up to Dobbins, with Huntley, if he plays, chipping in some yards.  Not to underestimate Dobbins, but the Bengals' defense will be the toughest rush defense that Baltimore has faced.  Note that the Steelers' 7th rated rush defense was able to hold Baltimore to 120 yards last week, down considerably from their 160+ average.
It remains to be seen if the Bengals can put last week's event at least on hold, but I do feel that, otherwise this game is a bit of a mismatch.  Look for the Bengals, with their fine air attack to win and cover.

The Titans are on the road, facing a surging Jags team for all the marbles.  While last week’s loss was more of a rest game, the Titans have stumbled almost unbelievably in their last 6 games, with the defense regressing almost everywhere but rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt.  Compare to the Jags’ defense who have shown real improvement down the stretch.  Points against totals are hugely better, and they are much tougher in the red zone and against the run.  Even their passing game is improving,  a bonus against the Titans poor pass offense.
On offense, there really is no comparison.  The Jags have much better rushing stats than Tennessee, supposedly the Titans’ realm.  Lawrence was not as strong last time out, but his improvement this year has been a real eye-opener.  He will face one of the easier pass defenses this week.  The Jags’ offense is much more balanced; the run offense has averaged 160+ yards in the last three weeks, although they will face a tough Titans’ run defense.
Not to mention beating the Titans just 4 weeks ago, the Jags have also beaten the Cowboys and the Texans, both of whom won against the Titans in recent weeks. The Titans REALLY miss Tannehill, and even with the King returning this week,  the Titans will have more than their hands full on Saturday.  Other than an attack of nerves, this game is there for the Jags to take.  Jaguars will win, cover, and head into the play-offs.

The Raiders have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year, and are now at home to the best defense in the league with a fill-in QB. The 49ers have several reasons to keep their foot on the gas.  They have an outside chance at a bye week in the playoffs and they need to give their young and promising QB all the experience they can before the playoffs.  Vegas has seen their points-scored drop by 5 in their last three games and by thirteen last week.  They lost to the Rams and Steelers with a total of 26 points while Carr was at QB.  Now with an untried Stidham under center, the prospects are bleak for point production.  Stidham will have to face  a healthy Bosa and the rest of the 49ers headhunters.  Carr was sacked 3 times last week, and it could go up on Sunday.  The Raiders real hope is elite running back Jacobs, but he will have his hands full against the top rushing defense in the league.  Jacobs was limited to under three yards a carry last week.
Then there is young Brock Purdy, some very good targets, not to mention McCaffrey. The 49ers have put up31 points on average in their last three games, and 37 last week.  Purdy had a passer rating of 119, a completion rate of 69+ and just 1 pick in his last three games.  He faces a Raiders' team 27th ranked in pass defense, and 30th in sacks.
The benching of Raiders' long time quarterback will not be without effect on a Raiders team going nowhere fast. It will be pedal to the metal for SF on Sunday.  Take the 49ers to win and cover.

The Giants are home to the Colts in Week 17.  It is a very significant game for NY, and they likely couldn't have a better opponent.  The Colts are going nowhere fast, with an indifferent game last week and essentially no offense. Foles, with very limited time with the team, was about as expected; 3 points and a trio of picks. On a short week for the Colts, don't expect huge improvements from him.
The Colts' usually dependable defense has fallen apart in the last three games; their avg. points-allowed has ballooned to 37, they bombed against the Cowboys and were humiliated in the second half by the Vikings.  They are still tough on passers with 4 sacks last week, but their run defense is not elite, allowing 137 yards and 2+ TDs on average L3 games.
The Giants have the edge in all offensive categories.  They can run or pass, with both Barkley and Jones playing well lately. Jones' passer rating is consistently in the 90's.  He has cut down on turnovers, and can gain ground with his legs too.  He put up over 350 yards last week, but won't manage that against the Colts.
The Colts are, in my opinion, done for the year. They had 69 yards on the ground and 104 in the air last week against an average Chargers defense.  The Giants' postseason is ripe for the picking. They are healthier and at home.  Take the Giants to win and cover.

Who would believe the Jaguars as a potential play off team a year ago? The Jags now face the Texans on the road, hoping to improve on a 4-1 recent record.  Lawrence has the Jags' offense working very well, with a passer rating of over 100 in 5 of 7 games.  Last week was not one of them, but he still played a smart effective game with no picks, against a very tough Jets pass defense.  While we have seen more of a pass-first offense lately, the Jags, with Etienne and Robinson (and Lawrence chipping in), could go back to running the ball on Sunday.  Houston's rush defense is a mere shadow of their pass defense, and is 32nd in the league in rush yards allowed.  Lawrence has been protected well this season but will face some pressure from the Texans, who have had 4 sacks on average over their last three games. The pass defense is the Texans' best (some would say only) asset, but Lawrence maneuvered around an even better one last week.

The Jags' defense has shown improvement in most categories lately and should not be underestimated.  They've cut down on yards-allowed, are tough against the run and even their weak spot, pass yards-allowed, is improved.  They're averaging 3 sacks a game in their L3, and face an average Texans O-line this week.

Houston's offense is among the league's bottom feeders in almost every category.  While they have nothing to play for, they shouldn't be taken lightly.  The Jags are a legitimate potential playoff team, and will play like it on Sunday.  Take Jacksonville to win and cover on the road.

I am holding my nose this week and taking the Cowboy against a wounded and slumping Titans side.  We don't know who will actually play for the Titans in a somehow meaningless game for their playoff hopes.  For the Cowboys, Thursday's game is a fine chance to press for a play-off bye week, and an opportunity to work out some bugs in their recent inabilities to defend.  There are some significant issues in the Cowboys' defense.  Their tidal surge of passer pressure (3rd in the league) has ebbed alarmingly in their last three weeks, exposing some real problems.  Their passing yards-allowed has climbed by a full 100yds L3, and is actually worse than the 31st ranked Titans' figures over the last three games.  Their rushing yards allowed did improve in their last game, but their abilities against the run have not impressed in the second half of the season.  Luckily for the Cowboys, the much injured Titans are in no position to take advantage.  Tannehill, a very under-rated QB, is out and Henry, who is questionable, may well be rested.  The Titans' pass attack was pitiful last week, and the Cowboys' passer rushers should have their way against a poor Titans' pass defense.
On the plus side for the Cowboys, Prescott and their pass offense has been outstanding in recent games.  Prescott's passer rating was a monster 124 last week, in spite of 6 sacks.  The Cowboys have averaged 270+ yards in the air with an over 70% completion rate lately.  The Titans are dependably one of the worst teams against the pass and their sack % is just 3% over their last tree games.  The Titans continue to be strong against the run, but in recent games we have seen the Cowboys rely less on their strong running game.
With just 14 points scored last week and an average of 18, that 10 points  to cover looks like a reasonable bet this week.  The Cowboys have averaged over 30 points lately, with 40 against the Eagles and 54 vs. the Colts.  Take Dallas to show improvement on defense, roll on offense, and win and cover.

The Chargers, who still have a shot at a wild card spot, travel to meet up with a struggling Colts team, now finished as far as the postseason. The Colts’ strength has been their defense, but last week’s 2nd half debacle follows a 54 points- allowed effort to the Cowboys, neither looking like an elite defensive performance. 3 Fumbles, 11 penalties and 426 yards-against last week does not look like a team with it’s heart in the game. Coach Saturday’s solution? Replace the quarterback with Foles, who has about three days experience with the offense. Add the loss of Jonathon Taylor, who has driven the Colts’ offense, and you have a recipe for failure.

The Chargers don’t run much but Herbert and Co. have put up over more than 300 passing yards on average in the last three games.   Perhaps, as we have seen with many pass-centric teams in the late season, the Chargers will be running at the the Colts' average run defense.  Other than last week, Herbert doesn’t usually throw the ball away. He is 2nd in completion % and passing yards this season. The Chargers' very average rush defense is at least a little better against the run lately, holding the Titans to 127 rushing yards and just 1 TD on the ground. They’ve been respectable and improving against the pass, land have limited teams to just 19 points overall in their last three games.

The Chargers are healthier and starting to show what they are capable late in the season. I am not convinced the Colts will show up and put in a full effort after the poor showing of the last two weeks. LA has the momentum and the need for a win. Chargers to win and cover.

The Broncos are in LA to take on the Rams on Christmas day.  Who gets the black stuff gift-wrapped under the tree?  My bet is the Rams, and here is why.

The Broncos are top five on defense, tough to play against in all areas.  The Rams have a QB with 3 weeks experience and a suspect track record up against a very good pass defense. with good passer pressure stats as well.  The Rams are even worse than the Broncos as far as protecting their passer, and rarely run the ball.  Mayfield will have a bull's eye on his back all afternoon.

The offensively-challenged Broncos have actually scored more points than someone over the last three weeks, and that "someone" is the Rams.  The Broncos have kicked it up a notch on offense recently.  Their ran for 50% of plays last week, finishing with 165 yards and  4.9 a carry.  Russell Wilson is back and Aaron Donald is not.  Merry Christmas Russ.  The Rams defense has struggled lately, and the pass defense is only 22nd rated.  Wilson will be all in to finish on a high note after a putrid season.

The Broncos are favored, which just shows how far the mighty Rams have fallen.  Give me the Broncos to win and cover.

The Dolphins are home for Christmas after three straight road losses, so situation-critical for them.  The Packers are off a pair of wins and still have a small shot at a wild card spot.  Miami has a better record at home this season.  They had better step up this week.  They gave up 29 points on average in their last three games, a full 8 points off break-even.  Other than passer pressure, their pass defense is pretty poor, averaging  close to 300 yards in their last three games. Their red zone defense and 3rd down conversions-allowed are well below average as well.
Tua bounced back after a couple of rough outings, but in a bit of a twist, the Dolphins ran much more last week, resulting in a huge jump in rush play %, rush yards (188) and yds per carry (6.5).  The Packers have a top ten pass defense, but struggle against the rush, so Miami would be wise to continue their run tactic.
It has been a disappointing season for the Packers, so it is difficult to buy their recent wins as a turnaround, however Rodgers does seem to have more confidence in his targets, and his receivers are healthy.  I feel like the Packers match up well against the Dolphins.  The Packers might just have a little gas in the tank for a playoff run, so this game is a must-win for them as well.  I'm looking for the Packers in the warm climes of Miami to at least keep this game close.  Take the Packers plus the points.  Oh, and a Very Merry Christmas!!

It is the Bengals vs the Patriots in a Christmas Eve match-up.  The Patriots are off a foolish loss in week 15.  They beat poor teams (usually) but struggle more than expected vs elite ones.  The Bengals, winners of 7 straight games, are an elite team, certainly on offense.  Burrow's average  passer rating is 105 over the last 3 weeks, and Week 15's was exactly double that of Mac Jones'.  The Bengals have a solid run game in Mixon and Perine should they choose to use it, but really, the offense is all about the pass.

The Patriots are a top ten defense, but have given up more points than the Bengals' somewhat  underrated D.  NE's best quality is  passer pressure: they are third in sacks and first in completion rate allowed.  They do give up more TDs to opposing passers than might be expected.  Burrow is certainly no stranger in dealing with passer pressure, and the Bengals' O-line is much improved.

The Patriots are very average on offense; mid-pack in points-scored, but last in red zone offense, and poor in third down conversions.  They have a pair of solid running backs, but Mac Jones isn't scaring anyone lately.  The Bengals defense is solid; eighth and improving in rush yards allowed. Their weak point is their pass defense.  They  are just 20th in passer yards given up, but other than last week, are very stingy in pass TDs allowed.

Anything can happen on any given week, but the Bengals' as a 3 point favorite is a golden opportunity to me.  Jump on this play.

The surging Detroit Lions travel to meet a Panthers team that has won 2 of 3 games, however the only team to beat Detroit recently is the Bills.  Goff has been an eye-opener this year. Now a top ten QB, he has been well protected, averaging over 300 yards passing with no picks in 3 weeks.  The Lions' time of possession is 56% in the last three weeks, and in spite of a pass-first offense, they have a very acceptable running game.
The Lions' defense has made great strides lately with avg. points allowed at just 18 in their last three games, the rush defense showing great improvement, and with a big increase in passer pressure.
The Panthers' offense with Sam Darnold at QB put up 30 points vs the Seahawks, but are otherwise averaging just 19 points-for a game.  They are poor in the red zone and in 3rd down conversions.  Their running game is all over the map, usually solid, but with just 21 yards vs the Steelers last week.  They are just 30th in passing yards and passer rating this season, and Darnold was sacked 4 times last week.
On defense, the Panthers are competent, although they struggle defending in the red zone and on 3rd down conversions, and are nothing special in passer pressure.
This is definitely a good situation for the Lions to keep rolling.  The Panthers will struggle to keep up with Detroit's offense on Saturday.  A very favorable line is available.  Take Detroit to win and cover.

The Jets host the Jaguars in the rain and the wind and prime time on TNF. No Mike White this week for the Jets.  It is back to Zach Wilson, who has performed poorly this season, and does not appear to have the confidence of his team mates. As good as the Jets' defense is they are offensively challenged, averaging just 17 points in their last 3 games, and 27th ranked in red zone scoring. Wilson has just 6 TDs, to 6 picks, and has one of the worst completion %s in the league.  The Jets are not compensating on the ground, with just 82 yards average rushing last 3 games and 50 last week.
The opposing QB, Lawrence has found his form lately, with QB rating of 121 last week, and 114 L3 games.  He has been well protected and threw for 4 TDs vs the Cowboys last week.  He has paid his dues, fouling up on a rain-soaked field earlier, and will know what to expect.  As good as Trevor Lawrence has been, it would be remiss to underplay Etienne and the rest of the rush offense.  The Jags had 190+ yards vs the Cowboys in overtime and 127 yards average, compared to the Jets' totals.
There is no question that the Jets have a formidable defense. There is a little wiggle room with the run defense, and they haven't been as tough on passers lately.  Williams is still questionable which could be a reason for some of the defensive slippage.  The Jag's defense has been opportunistic at best, often below average, but tougher on passers lately, averaging 3 sacks a game/ Last three.

The Jags have the momentum, the better run game and a much better pass attack.  They rallied against a tough Cowboys team last week. I just can't see where the points will come for the Jets this week. Take the Jags, a slight underdog, to win.

It will be a cold day in Lambeau Field when the Rams travel to face the Packers.  the Packers are healthier, better rested and favored by a touchdown on Monday.  Mayfield was the talk of the town this week for that last minute drive to beat the Raiders in week 14.  Let's keep things in perspective; he and the Rams did nothing for most of the game, the Raiders' pass defense is very poor, and the Rams ended the game with 17 points, almost exactly average for them this season. a plus for the Rams is their run defense, 4th rated this season although yards-against have climbed in the last three games. They are generally below average in passing yards allowed and don't pressure the passer particularly.  On offense, they don't usually run the ball although that could change this week.  The Packers are very poor against the run, and much tougher (4th in yards allowed} when defending against the pass.  Mayfield has been with the team barely 10 days.  I think he was running on adrenaline last week and this week will be the real test.
Rodgers has not been all that he can be, but will have both key wide receivers this week, and has looked more comfortable in recent games.  The Packers have a fine duo of running backs, who the Packers have been using more with good success. With Rodgers at home and under the lights and with an extra week off, I am taking the Packers to win and cover on Monday.

The Titans face the Chargers at home in a a very significant game for both sides.  The Chargers are healthier this week with 2 top WRs and their center healthy which should provide a boost to their passing offense.  Herbert was on fire last week, throwing for a massive 342 yards vs the Dolphins.  Pass defense is the Titan's sore point; they've given up the 31st ranked passing yards this season including 340 on average in the last three games.

As Henry goes, so go the Titans' offense. Usually. The king bounced back vs the Jaguars last week after a couple of off weeks, but the Titans' pass attack just hasn't been dynamic enough to win games lately.  They average just 175 yards passing and 18 points-for, and even with Henry they are just 16th in rush yards this season.

Henry should be able to run against LA, but the Chargers have been tough to move against in the air lately, with an opponent's average passer rating of 81 L3 games, and 65 last week.

The Chargers have the momentum, are at home and need this game to keep playoff hopes alive.  Look for the Chargers' pass attack to improve this week and LA to win and cover.

The 49ers survived without Jimmy G very well thank you very much, however it was a  very ugly week for the Seahawks, losing to the Lowly Panthers at home.  The Panthers ran all over the Seahawks, finishing with more than 200 yards rushing.  Geno Smith looked very human vs. a decent Panthers' pass defense, and was sacked three times by a team 20th in sacks this season.  The Giants defense will be in a feeding frenzy after a no sacks but dominant defensive performance against Tampa Bay.  The jury is still out on injured Seahawks' running backs, though it looks like Walker will be back.  The 49ers are not a team to face with an unbalanced offense, and Seattle managed just 46 yards rushing yards last week and an average of 67 yards L3 games. Purdy is questionable at QB, but there is nothing wrong with the 49ers' running game. These are very favorable odds for the moment, and they will not get better.  Jump on this one without delay.

The Cardinals put points on the board when they face mediocre defenses, but that hasn't guaranteed a win by any means.  When they face a top defense, and there haven't been many lately, they struggle to score at all.  It isn't as if Murray or the Cardinals' offense has excelled in any offensive areas.  Murray has been average in passing yards for, and worst in the NFL in yards per attempt and completion. He might be more difficult against the Patriots as a rusher.  The Patriots have struggled to contain running quarterbacks in the past. Wheels or not, I have confidence that New England will shut down Murray and the Cardinals offense.
Points have come at a premium as the Patriots have averaged just 15 per game in their last three starts, but that included both the Bills (4th ranked D) and the Jets (6th ranked D.). Against weaker defenses, the Patriots have but up 52 points total.  I has been an exaggerated pattern all season.  New England scores big against weak defenses, and not at all vs dominant ones.
The Cardinals are ineffective vs the pass, giving up the 30th ranked points and a passer rating of 107 in their last three games.  They do blitz but have just 23 sacks to date.  This is not really a meaningful game for Arizona, and much there is a sizable amount of distraction on the sidelines.  The Patriots are still in a wild card position if they can reverse their fortunes this week.  Watch the Patriots limit Murray and the Cardinals offense, while scoring enough points to win and cover.

The Raven are an underdog in Pittsburgh, missing Lamar Jackson for at least this game.  Huntley filled in well against a tough Broncos defense, passing for 187 yards and throwing for a high completion rate, while running efffectively and getting the game-winning TD. We will likely see more of a pass-focused attack from Huntley, which is a benefit vs the Steelers.  The Steelers are tough against the rush, but one of the worst teams in the league when defending against the pass. They don't even pressure passers consistently with just 22 sacks, including only one last week.  The Steelers' big defensive weapon, TJ Watts is questionable and likely compromised for this week.

 Rookie QB Pickett has shown much better in recent weeks, but against relatively poor defenses.  The Ravens are easily a top ten defense, very good at limiting points and third down conversions. The Steelers rushed for over 150 yards last week but no one runs successfully against the Ravens.  While they are looser (but improving) in passing yards allowed, they will be tough on the young quarterback, with 37 sacks on just a 19% pressure rate.   

The Ravens are a large step above any defense that the Steelers have shown well against, and Pittsburgh may have much more trouble moving the ball. Considering the Steelers' pass defense, Huntley and the Ravens may show quite well against the Steelers on Sunday.  Take the Ravens to cover, if not win.

The Lions are favored and it is not really a surprise by the numbers. No team has improved as much on offense this year as the Lions.  Their points-scored total has improved by a touchdown in recent games and they have been brilliant in the red zone.  They trail the Vikings in only one offensive category (rush yards per attempt) over the last three games.  The Vikings have experienced some drop-off on offense, especially in pass categories in recent games.  Some of this decline can be explained by their competition; they've faced 4 top-ten defenses in their last 4 games, and still won 3 of them.
The Lions have been notorious this season for poor defense, but there has been a recent improvement.  They have seen their points allowed drop by a TD in their last three games, and they held the Jags and Giants to under 18 points.  They've seen their passer pressure stats improve as the Vikings' have retreated.  Much of this increase is a result of the Lions controlling the game on offense.  The offense was on the field 61 % of the time last week, and this against a tough Jags pass defense.  The Vikings have the worst pass defense in the league, allowing an average of 345 passing yards in their last three games.  They even allowed Mac Jones a 120 passer rating.  Goff has hit his stride, is well protected, and doesn't throw the ball away. I don't believe this is a very good match-up for the Vikings in spite of their much superior record. This may be a high scoring game, but I fully expect the new improved Lions to win and cover on Sunday.  

The Rams, at home to the Raiders this week, are in a pretty deep hole, missing Kupp, Stafford, Donald and a host of others, and with possibly Baker Mayfield at QB.  The Rams have almost abandoned their pass-first offense, with rush plays shifting from 38% for the season to over 50% in the last three weeks.  Against Seattle, they had considerably more rush yards (171) than pass yards (148).  However it is not just the passing game that is struggling.  There is almost no area on defense that hasn't declined significantly in the last three games.  The Rams have allowed over 300 yards passing, 26 points against and a passer rating of 111 L3.  Rush yards have remained consistent mainly because opposing teams are jumping on the Rams' poor pass defense.
As much as the Rams' defense has faltered, the Raiders appear finally to be returning to form. The Raiders' defense has improved dramatically in red zone defense, rush yards allowed, and yards per rush attempt of late.  The one area they are still weak in remains against the pass, but they have toughened up in passer pressure, and saw their sack total rise to 5 last week. It would be very surprising if the Rams pass game put much on the board this week, irregardless of the defense.  On offense, Carr has been well protected lately, and the Carr to Adams connection is as good as any in the league.  The Raiders' yards per completion soared to over 15 1/2 last week, so the Rams will have to look out for a very explosive pass offense.  Vegas running back Josh Jacobs has been a big part of the renaissance, and while he is questionable, the league's top rusher is still expected to play.
There will likely be many Raiders fans in attendance this week, hoping to revel in how the Mighty Rams have fallen.  The line is Raiders -6.5, which seems high, but doing the math, surprisingly do-able for a surging Raiders team not completely out of the wild card picture at the moment.  Take the Raiders to win and cover. 

The Titans face the Eagles, who are 4-1 at home, and on the rebound from a few weeks of indifferent play.  Their biggest concern is the alarming number of points they allowed against the Commanders and Packers. They are healthier this week and face a Titans team that does not put up a ton of points nor yards, nor do they control time of possession like the Commanders.  The Titans' offense is usually all about Henry and the run game, but that has not been the case lately.  The Titans have managed to rush for just 71 yards on average in their last three games, while running the ball just 42% of the game.  Tannehill has thrown the ball well over 100 yards more than the Titans' average, has been accurate and better protected in that time.  Facing the Eagles, the Titans might be better resorting to plan A, unless their is some issue with Henry.
The Eagles are just 18th vs the run but 2nd in passing yards allowed.  They will get to Tannehill (3rd in sacks)and are best in the league in takeaways.  As for the Eagles offense, this may be the game when we see Hurts return to his passing game.  In spite of the enormous success with the running game last week, the Eagles face a Titans team that is tough vs the run but 31st in passing yards allowed.  Let's not forget that the Eagles can be very good in the air, with the best offense in the red zone, and are 3rd in third down conversions.
I've  been on the Titans often this season with success, but I am afraid that they are catching an Eagles team on the upswing.  Henry's lack of success is troubling, and the Titans have some significant injuries this week.  Look for a better defensive game from the Eagles and  for Hurts to do what ever is required for victory.  Take the Eagles to win and cover.

The Falcons are in 2nd place in a very weak NFL South, but have failed to break .500 despite many chances.  The Steelers are last in their division, but appear to be the team with some momentum, showing improvement in many offense and defense area.  The Falcons are all about the run,  4th in rushing yards, with a trio of running backs and a good rushing QB in Mariota.  This rushing success hasn't translated into points as the Falcons have seen their scoring drop precipitously in recent weeks.  The 7th ranked Steelers rush defense matches up well against a run-first offense, limiting rush yards to an average of 67, and yards/attempt to 3.1 in in their last three games.
The Steelers are getting improved play from rookie QB Pickett and RB Harris, and have seen their points scored take a 25% leap over the last three weeks, including a win against the Colts and and impressive game vs the Bengals.  The Pittsburgh defense is much tougher on quarterbacks, generating 3 sacks last week.  The Falcons are one of the league's lightweights in passer pressure, and had no sacks last week.
I underestimated the Steelers' improvement last week, and won't be burned again.  They have been much better in controlling the game, with 56% time of possession rate in the last three weeks. Look for continued improvement from Pickett and a improving defense against a stagnant Falcons team.  The Steelers to win and cover.

The Giants, at home to a commanding Washington team, have fallen on harder times lately.  Their fine running back Barkley hasn't been nearly as dynamic lately and the rush offense has dropped by 30 yards a game L3.  This is a huge concern in a rush-first offense.  Where the Giants real trouble lies is on defense, with significant decreases in effectiveness in numerous areas; points allowed, and red zone defense to name just 2 of many.   As much as the Giants' defense has struggled, the Commanders' has surged. They've seen a drop in points-allowed from 19 to 14, and opposing passer rating drop from 90 to 70, comparing last three games to season average.  The Commanders' most impressive stat in their recent surge is their ability to control games through time of possession. and I believe this will continue on Sunday.  Their rush game, from a variety of sources, may not be flashy but they consistently move the sticks enough to maintain possession.  Heinicke doesn't thrill anyone as a passer, but has been very well protected in recent games, and effective as a game manager.  The Commanders face a poor rush defense on Sunday; the Giants are just 26th and struggling against the run.  They've allowed significantly more pass yards lately and in spite of a blitz-heavy pass defense, they are just 26th in sacks.
I've been riding the Commanders all through their recent success and am a huge believer in their continued success in week thirteen.  It may be more of "winning by inches", but take the Commanders to win and cover again.

Ryan is back at QB for the Colts, and while he didn't excel last week, he will face the Steelers' much poorer pass defense in Week 12.  Ryan has been very good at home this season, and while Jonathon Taylor is a solid running back, the Colts are statistically a pass-first offense. This bodes well against the Steelers, who are essentially last in the league when defending the pass.  The Steelers have a reputation as a top team against the run, which is somewhat true. They do limit the opposition to under 4 yards per rush attempt, and 67 yards rushing on average in their last three games, but given how poor their pass defense is, their last three opponents chose to pass 64% of the time.  The Colts have had problems protecting the passer this season, however the Steelers are not the man-eaters of yesteryear in passer pressure, with just a 14% pressure rating and 19 sacks.
Pickett played a better game last week but has yet to prove himself.  The Colts defense is tough to move the ball against.  They held the Eagles to just 17 points last week, allow less rush yards per attempt than the Steelers, and are 6th in passing yards allowed.  They are physically very tough on the passer with 28 sacks and 85 pressures to date.
The Colts are not out of the playoff picture entirely, so Monday will be a more meaningful game for them.  Look for another big game at home from Ryan, generating enough Colts points to win and cover.

The Buccaneers tested the Seahawks defense in their European match-up, and the Seahawks, whose defense looked to be on the upswing after 4 straight wins, failed the exam.  Tampa doesn't usually run much, but wound up with 161 rushing yards and a win.  Fast forward to week 12.  The Raiders have Josh Jacobs, a terrific and underutilized RB.  What are the bets we see far more of him this week? Seattle can also run the ball and the Raiders' run defense isn't that much better than the Seahawks, but both these teams are pass-happy and normally rely on their strength in the air.   Carr and Smith are both quality QBs with very similar stats.  Smith is more accurate, Carr puts up a few more yards, and neither turns the ball over very often.  Both have quality targets.
The Seahawks, however, defend the pass much better than the Raiders.  Las Vegas has given up an average passer rating of 106 this season, and is worst in the league in sacks with 13.  The Seahawks play a harder defensive game, have double the sacks and are very tough in takeaways.
The Seahawks are a well coached team, and had their bye week to sort out their defensive issues. Geno Smith will have more time than usual to operate.  Week 12 is an important step for their play-off hopes.  Considering their 3-7 opponent, a win is a must.  I expect Seattle's defense to show up on Sunday and wear down the Raiders over the course of the game.  Take Seattle to win and cover.

The Falcons are very much a rush-first offense, with the second fewest passing plays in the NFL, and facing a loss to injury of their top Tight End this week.  The lack of a pass attack will be a huge issue when facing the Commanders on Sunday, as Washington's surging defense has sliced and diced the run, allowing an average of just 57 yards in their last three games.  In Fact the entire Commanders defense has taken off, showing significant improvement in all areas against not insignificant opposition.  The same cannot be said for the Falcons' defense who are bottom five in points and yards allowed.
Other than the run game the Mariota-lead Falcons are pretty limited.  They have put up points in their last 4 games, but haven't faced an defense ranked higher than 25th in four games.  Mariota is sacked a lot considering how seldom he throws the ball, but hasn't given the ball up often.  Heinicke has the Commanders offense charged up, but it is more as a game manager.  The Commanders' recent success relies on many short rush attempts, playing a very successful and time-eating style.  The Commanders are 1st in time of possession; the Falcons are 26th.  Both Defenses had success pressuring the quarterback last week, but for the Commanders that success is typical, with nearly double the passer pressures and Qb hits of the Falcons.
I've been riding the Commanders lately and am confident of further success this week. No one has been better at limiting points lately, and they will have their scoring opportunities vs. the Falcons' weak D.  Take the Commanders to win and cover.

The Buccaneers actually ran the ball consistently against the Seahawks and came away with a solid result, 161 yards rushing, a huge spike in their lousy time of possession stats, their best 3rd down conversion figures of the year, not to mention a victory. Let us hope that they spent the bye week refining their running game, taking some of the load off their aging QB.  The Browns' defense struggles in most categories, including against the run, allowing 135 yards average in their L3 games and a very high 171 yards in Week 11. Add on 5.3 yards allowed per rush attempt in recent games.  They haven't been much better against the pass, allowing a 111 average passer rating  as well as 27 points against in their last 3 games.
On offense, the Browns moved away from their potent run game last week, running on just 38% of their plays, but we can expect to see more of Chubb and Hunt this week.  Tampa's defense is solid against the run.  It was likely a one-off, but they limited Seattle to just 39 rush yards in their last game. This is likely Browns' QB Brissett's final game.  He has had 2 solid performances in his last two weeks, culminating in a 116 passer rating.  The BucS' defense is tough on passers, limiting yards and yards per attempt.  They are also pretty formidable in passer pressure,and 3rd in sack %.
Can the Buccaneers turn their season around?  Week 12 would be a very good time to start.  The Browns defense gives up 27 points on average per game.  Tampa's offense is showing signs of life recently, giving them something to build on. Look for a more balanced attack from the Buccaneers, more of their stout defense, and enough Brady-driven offense to win and cover.  It really is now or "not this season" for Tampa Bay.

The Giants, who have lost badly in 2 of 3 games, now face the home team Dallas Cowboys, hot off a huge blow-out of the Vikings.  The Cowboys can dominate on offense and defense, but struggle against running backs and rushing QBs on defense.  It is no secret; the Packers and Bears ran the ball with success, but it took Rodgers' best game of the season, and some explosive passing plays, to bounce back and win.  The Giants have a strong running back in Barkley and Jones at QB is another rush option, but as far as the passing game goes, Jones is hardly Rodgers at his best.  The Packers were top 10 in passer protection while the Giants are 27th in sacks. Jones is 28th is pass yards, 25th in Yds/completion, and had a QB rating in the 70's last week.  Not to mention WR injury issues this week. Or that they are up against the league's top pass rushing team.
The Giants have recent struggles of their own on defense.  They struggled in red zone defense last week, are 25th in rush yards allowed, 31st in rush points allowed, and 21st in passer pressure.  They gave up 31 points to a Lions team that managed just 6 against the Cowboys, and they have serious injuries in their secondary.
All of this at a time when the Cowboys offense is on fire, averaging 440 yards of offense and roughly 40 points in their last 3 games.  Prescott is finally fully recovered from injury, playing behind the best O-line in the league, and sporting a 115 Passer rating in his last three games.  They have had far more rushing yards and points than the Giants lately.
NY has been able to hold on to the ball and slow the game down this season, however the Cowboys had a  huge 62% possession rate last week, and I expect them to control the game again on Thursday.  The spread is 10 points at the moment, but both the Seahawks and Lions won by bigger margins in the past three weeks.  A healthy Cowboys team at home and on National TV can be a handful.  Take the Cowboys to win and cover against a depleted Giants team.

Coming into MNF It is now the Cardinals who have injury issues, with key players out, and Hopkins and Murray both questionable with hamstring problems.  McCoy filled in well last week, but the Cardinals face one of the leagues' top defenses in the 49ers. Even after their win last week, Arizona is giving up 27 points on average in their last three games.  That 49er defense is hard to play against in all categories. Nobody runs successfully against them and with the Cardinals running less and less in recent games, SF can key on the Arizona pass attack, which has not been particularly dynamic this year, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion.  In spite of the Cardinals' short pass game, Murray/McCoy have been sacked at close to 4 times a game in recent action, a situation made worse this week by San Francisco's third-ranked (not third rate) passer pressure rating.
Given all of the 49ers' fine run options, it is surprising that they don't have more yards and points to show for it.  This could be the game when Mitchell and Samuel and McCaffrey all click and really impress.  Garoppolo and the 49ers' pass attack has some fine targets and has impressed lately.  They are now top ten in passing yards, with just a single sack last week and a very sharp 105 passer rating in their last three games.
On paper, the 49ers should blow the Cardinals right out of Mexico City.  They are giving up 8 points, an ugly number, but doing the math, I expect them to win and cover.  Look for a 49ers' breakout on offense, while the defense limits a lackluster and compromised Cardinals squad.

The Steelers are off a win, have TJ Watt back, and are playing at home, but face a very tough Bengals team this week. Joe Burrow is the 2nd best quarterback in the game, and has only improved lately, completing 77 % of his passes in his last three games, with a passer rating of 117. The Bengals’ O-line has improved this season. Burrows was sacked just twice in his last game, and the Bengals’ sacked % is lower than Sunday’s opposition’s numbers. Burrow seems impervious to sacks anyway and in spite of the hits he has taken, he doesn’t turn over the ball very often. Joe Mixon ran for huge yards in his last game, but the Bengals are usually very much a pass-first offense, a big advantage vs the Steelers’ defense. Pittsburgh shut down the Saints’ running game and are 6th in rush yards allowed, but they are not as tough against the pass. They are thirtieth for the season, though improving, in pass yards allowed and have managed only to hold QBs to a to- healthy 99 passer rating in their last three games.

The Bengals defense is reasonably balanced, underrated and improving in many areas lately including rush yards allowed and rush yards/attempt. They have a very good pass defense in spite of low passer pressure figures and are solid in takeaways. Let’s not forget who they are facing this week. Harris had a solid game on the ground and Picket ran for 50+ yards and managed not to throw a pick, but we are talking a 73 passer rating over the last three weeks and a 31st points-scored ranking this season. As good as he is, TJ Watt won’t be playing on the Steelers’ offense. Take the Bengals to win and cover.

The Commanders, on a short week after a massive victory against the Eagles, now face a struggling Texans team at home.  Washington’s defense has taken a step forward lately and is very strong vs. the run.  Their pass defense is still their weakness but they face Mills this week, who has struggled in his 2nd year.  The Texans’ pass defense had been their strong point, but has struggled lately, allowing a passer rating of 119 over their last 3 weeks.
The Commanders won’t be passing much anyway.   Washington hangs on to the ball better than any other team.  We saw their RB dual threat run the ball in roughly three yard increments on 60% of their offensive plays last week, with a remarkable time of possession of 67% against the top team in the league.  Expect a similar tactic against the Texans in Week 11.  Houston is worst in the league in rush yards allowed, and near bottom dwellers in yards/attempt and total yards allowed.  Opposing offenses run on the Texans on 65% of their plays this season to date, and it could be even more on Sunday.
The Texans have a very good rookie RB in Pierce but he really is their only option for rushing yards.  They are poor in converting on 3rd downs, and rarely put up any points on the ground.  The Commanders are 12th rushing yards allowed and improving, and give up very few rush TDs.  Mills is off one of his better games, but still has a very average rating of 76 in his last 3 games.
Washington has covered 4 straight times as a favorite.  I expect them to eat up both the Texans and the clock on Sunday, winning and covering on the road.

We could see a couple of run-first offenses when the Packers meet the Titans on TNF, based on the Packers’ success against the Cowboys. Henry and the Titans are formidable on the ground, and while Henry was limited against the Broncos last week, he’ll have and easier time rushing against the Packers’ sub-par run defense this week. That may not be the case for the Packers’ fine RB duo, Dillon and Jones. The Titans have one of the league’s top run defenses and are very tough in 3rd down conversions. We’ve seen a general improvement in the Titans’ defense lately; even the pass defense has improved, limiting opposing passers to a 74 rating in the last three weeks. The Titans QB pressure stats are among the best in the league, with 103 pressures, 29 sacks and 40 knock-downs. They are tough in points allowed, 3rd down conversions, and take-aways as well, making for a difficult evening for Rodgers on Thursday.

The Packers defense, as mentioned, is weak against the run, but tough for the season, though regressing lately, in the air. Their passer pressure stats are below average, but are up against a Titans O-line that has struggled to protect Tannehill, last week being the exception.

Rodgers had his best game of the season last week, but one game does not a season make. He and the Packers’ offense has struggled with picks and fumbles this season. The Packers successfully exploited the Cowboys’ poor run defense last week. Rogers actually threw less than average, although more successfully. He is still banged up with an injured thumb on his throwing hand.

I like Henry to bounce back with a big game on a chilly Thursday night. Tannehill is also off his best game of the season, and is an underestimated offense manager. Take the visiting team Titans to cover, although a win would not surprise me.

The Commanders were in tough against the Vikings last week and won their three previous games but they are on the road against a team that is consistently good in just about every area on Monday.  Not to mention healthier and better rested.  The Eagles run defense is their weak point, and the Commanders do have their 2 player run attack performing well, but the Commanders don't put up many rush points. The Commanders' pass attack is very pedestrian, and will face a pass defense that is formidable in takeaways, passer rating, sacks, etc, etc.  I really don't see the Commanders scoring a ton of points on Monday. Wentz is probably very lucky to be out of this one.
Can Washington slow down the Philadelphia offense?  They've been tough against the run recently, but haven't faced any really stiff rush competition in a few weeks.  They are poor against the pass, just 27th in average passer rating, and aren't particularly tough to play against.
The Eagles have a variety of looks on offense, and can switch on the fly if something isn't working.  Hurts hasn't run as much with Sanders rushing as well as he has, but the QB can be a force on the ground and in the air. We've seen some shocking results so far in Week Ten, but I think this game will likely go as expected. The Eagles' first half vs. the Texans was a surprise last week, especially with Pierce running so effectively.  I expect an adjustment from the Eagles, and a huge effort under the lights of MNF against a very beatable Commanders' team. Take the Eagles to win and cover that big number in prime time.

The Cowboys come into their road game with the Packers healthy, rested and on a two game win streak, none of which can be said of the Packers.  On offense, they have seen a huge improvement since the return of Prescott, plus games against a couple of lesser lights.  One of those 'lesser lights' just beat up on Green Bay last week.  There is almost no area where the Packers can match the Cowboys offense over their last three games.  Prescott has bounced back from injury well, and the run game has taken off in recent weeks.
The Packers are off an historically poor performance, with Rodgers throwing 3 picks and playing to a passer rating in the 50's.  This against one of the worst defenses in the league.  On defense, it is something of a different story.  The Cowboys allowing 29 points and 240 rush yards to the Bears is concerning.  The Cowboys can be run on, but that hasn't translated into points to date.  The Packers could run more, with solid running backs in Dillon and Jones (limited), but haven't so far and are a poor 30th in the league in rush points scored.  Then there is the Cowboys' passer pressure to consider.  Rogers is generally well protected, but that may change on Sunday.  Dallas averages 4 sacks a game and is first in QB pressure, with Green Bay well down the list. The Cowboys are also very good in takeaways, and Rodgers, as we saw last week, is not immmune to throwing the ball away.
The Packers are a much injured team this week.  I had hopes for the Packers' offense to show up last week, but won't be holding my breath on Sunday Look for the Cowboys to win and cover in this touted grudge match.

The Broncos managed 21 points in their last game and are off a bye in week 9 but they face a tough run-crazy Titans squad just minutes away from beating the Chiefs last week.  The Broncos offense has been a disappointment but the defense has been spot-on this year.  They are tough to score on and defend well in the red zone, but are best against the pass, which is definitely secondary in the Titans' plans. Note that the Broncos also lost their top pass rusher, traded away at the deadline.   The Broncos can be run on, at 21st and 27th in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt, but they are not as easy to score rush points on. Both of these teams' defenses are about equally hard on passers,while neither team is particularly good at protecting their own QB.
The Titans defense is especially strong on third down and has allowed even less points than the Broncos lately.  They are very tough against the rush, limiting both points and yards.  They do give up plenty of passing yards, although the whopping 420+ against the Chiefs was hardly typical.
The Titans run the ball more than just about anyone, and their passer stats suffer accordingly, both in yards and passer rating.  The loss of Tannehill was a large but not insurmountable blow, but he is expected back this week.  Tannehill is an excellent and underestimated offense manager, who passes as needed without too many mistakes. With rookie Malek behind center, we saw passer yards and effectiveness drop to a low of 57 yards and with a miserable 49 passer rating.  It didn't affect Henry much. Everyone knew he would run and just couldn't stop him.
With an average of just 15 points a game, the Broncos haven't shown much in the way of pass or run offense.  Wilson is 29th in passer yards and passer rating, and has been sacked 3 times a game on average. Wilson hadn't settled into the Broncos offense before their bye although his last game was an improvement.  The Titans just experienced Mahomes at his finest, and still weathered the storm.  I will believe in the Broncos' improved offense when I see it.
With the spread less than a field goal, I like the Titans' chances on Sunday.Tennessee bypasses the best part of the Broncos' defense, and should hold up well against the offense.  Tannehill returning would be a huge bonus. Take the Titans to win and cover.

It will be Barkley vs Pierce, two very good RBs looking to lead a pair of run-first offenses when the Texans take on the Giants in New York.  Pierce is banged up, but likely to play and off a very impressive rebound game against the Eagles.   Barkley is healthy and well rested after a bye week, and playing against the worst run defense in the league.  The Texans are 32nd in rush yards allowed and very poor in all other categories, and of course, teams routinely run against them most of the time.  In this case it will Barkley and QB Jones, a terrific one-two punch, 4th in the league in rushing yards.  How will Pierce fare?  The Giants rush defense give up plenty of yards, but not points.  The New York defense overall is very good in the red zone, and in limiting 3rd down conversions.  The pass defense is average in yards, and limits passers to an 82 rating lately.  The Giants blitz a lot, but it is the Texans who are the more successful pressure-ers. Opposing passers have looked good lately with a 108 rating in the last 3 Texans' games.
Houston passer Mills has struggled in his second season, with a very average passer rating and too many picks.  Jones, aside from his running abilities, has been effective on a smaller scale, and hangs on to the ball. I think the Giants running game will win out on Sunday.  The Giants don't give up the ball easily, and the Texans are 30th in time of possession.  We'll see a lot of the Giants on the field, while scoring enough points to win and cover.

It could be very much a run-centric game when the Falcons meet the Panthers on Thursday.  The Falcons run more than just about anyone, and now have Patterson back, plus an up-and-comer in Allgeier, plus Huntley, and not to mention Mariota. Rain and wind are in the forecast, and the Panthers have a poor 28th rated rush defense.
The Panthers moved the ball effectively the last time they faced the Falcons, and really, the Falcons' pass defense can make any QB look good, even PJ Walker. Walker may have succeeded in the Falcons game, but his overall stats are not good, and he did nothing before being pulled in week 9.  One thing about Mariota is he doesn't turn the ball over much.  He will face more pressure than Walker; the Falcons REALLY don't pressure quarterbacks with any success.
With all of the turmoil around the Panthers at the moment, it is bound to show up on the field.  There are also too many areas where the Panthers have no ability;  they are last in the league in third down conversions, possession time, pass completion rate, and 31st in passer rating. The Falcons' defense allows a ton of yards, and as noted, struggle against the pass, but last week's game showed some improvement in both areas. If it comes down to field goals, which is not unlikely, Atlanta has a solid edge.  The Falcons have the opportunity to make it back to .500 again.  It may not be pretty considering the weather conditions, but I believe the Falcons have it in them to win and cover on Thursday.

The Ravens and Jackson face the Saints and Dalton under the lights on Monday Night Football.  Not a lot separates these two teams in stats, although the Ravens have faced much stiffer defenses.  The Ravens' addition of Roquan Smith also adds a solid component to their defense.  The Saints completely shut down the hapless Raiders last week but the same team gave up 42 points to the Cardinals the week before.
Both teams could be described as run-first, and here the Ravens' defense have the edge.  They are 5th against the run, allowing just 80 yards a game in their last three starts.  The Ravens do give up more passing yards than the Saints, but Baltimore is tougher in pass pressure and much stronger in creating takeaways, significant this week because Dalton and the Saints do turn the ball over more frequently.  The Ravens have two solid run options and Lamar, plus an uptick in passing yards last week.  Not to underestimate Kamara and Hill, but they and Dalton will have a tougher time moving the ball this week.
Look for big Prime-time games from Smith and Jackson, and a Saints' regression tonight.  Take the Ravens to win and cover.

The Seahawks meet the Cardinals at home off three straight victories, one of them against the Cardinals.  The Seahawks have a much improved defense since the start of the season.  There is now no defensive category that Seattle doesn't lead the Cardinals in the last three games, against roughly similar competition.  The Cardinals' defense is struggling against the run which plays to Seattle's fine young running back Walker III.  Arizona has also allowed a 93 average passer rating compared to 76 for the Seahawks in their last three games.
With the return of Hopkins, there has been an uptick in the Cardinals' passing game, however the Cardinals' O line has not protected Murray well and the Seahawks are averaging nearly 5 sacks a game and 71 pressures. The Cardinals' pass rush will have a good crack at Smith, but Smith has the benefit of  much better running backs.
Geno Smith has been an eye-opener this year, with an average passer rating 20 points higher than Murray's.  He has thrown for more TDs than Murray and with half the picks.  He is accurate and, surprise, he can run too, although not as well as Murray.  While he doesn't have Hopkins he does have a fine pair of targets in Metcalf and Lockett.
Seattle is a very well-directed team, and has been successful in addressing their weaknesses on the fly.  Other than the return of Hopkins, it has been status quo for Arizona.  Arizona must win or no, road or no, I am wagering that Seattle will win this game or at least cover.

Facing the Bears at home, the Dolphins successfully propped up a couple of areas in need of improvement, pass defense and run offense.  The Bears brought in a quality receiver, but moved their top two defensive players out.  We saw some of the effect last week as the Chicago defense absolutely plummeted in effectiveness.  They allowed double their season's average points against total, and their vaunted pass defense fell apart, allowing a third more yards.  Against a healthy and fired up Tua-lead Dolphins pass attack, this is not good news.
Fields didn't pass for any more yards than usual, but he did put up points with 0 picks, in spite of the usual 4 sacks. He and his RBs again put up monster yards on the ground.  He may not get a break from the pressure this week, as the usually mild-pressuring Dolphins added a heavy hitter in Chubb.  The Dolphins defense has also been very tough against the run, allowing an average of just 85 yards on the ground in their last three games, so this should be an interesting match-up.
It goes without saying that Miami is a pass-first offense, but they do have two very good running backs with the addition of Wilson.  The Bears are one of the easiest teams to run on, so this might be the week to vary the routine. The Bears surprised with the number of points they put up in the last two weeks, but the Dolphins can score in a hurry and the Bears have taken a huge hit on defense with their deadline losses.  I'm on the Dolphins to win and cover.  

The Lions' offense bounced back against the Dolphins last week but went absolutely nowhere in previous weeks against the Cowboys and Patriots.  The Packers have a solid pass defense, 2nd in pass yards allowed, which will go some way to limiting Detroit's options. Green Bay is also strong in red zone defense, and have limited 3rd down conversions.  They have an average passer rating of 79 in their last three weeks. The Lions also just shipped out their talented tight end at the deadline.  
Neither team runs much, although the Packers can and did step out vs the Bills last week, and should this week.  The Lions' run defense is lamentable.  In fact the Lions defense as a whole is lamentable, resulting in the dismissal of their defensive co-ordinator this week.  It only remains for the Packers to put some points on the board.  While his secondary stats aren't poor, Rodgers has not been able to put up points or yards this year.  The O line inconsistent with injuries, but is starting to recover, and his receiving corp is weak.  It has been suggested that Detroit's pass defense can make anyone look good.  The Packers used a much more balanced offense when they put up their most yards against a very tough Bills defense last week.  Look for them to continue to improve against a weakened Lions offense, and a disorganized Detroit defense.  I am on the Packers to bounce back, win and cover. 9*!