A string of unders from both teams have kept this line in the mid 140s. Its a lower total than either team saw in either of the last 2 rounds. Too low! These may be excellent defenses but there is no stopping either of these offenses. UConn has scored 75 or more in every game this tournament. Prior to the low-scoring game against NC State, Purdue has scored 72 or more in 5 straight and 10 of 11.

Purdue was an underdog twice. Those games averaged 162 points. The Boilermakers are 4-1 to the over when playing with 1 days rest and 6-2 to the over after allowing 60 points or less. The Huskies are 5-1 to the over their past 6 tries as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. This game goes Over!

Indiana State has a far superior record and is the better team here. Inside or outside their conference, the Sycamores have handled their business. The Sycamores were 19-4 against Missouri Valley Conference opponents and 12-2 in non-conference play. Utah was only 10-12 within its conference. The Pac-12 has some good teams but so does the Missouri Valley. The level of competition doesn't account for such a large discrepancy in records!

The Utes are 0-3 versus the spread their last 3 tries as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pick. They were only 4-7 ATS as underdogs this season. They won only 5 of their 12 road games. The Sycamores are 20-11 ATS as favorites. They are 30-14 ATS their last 44 tries after scoring 80 or more. Lay the small number!

Zach Edey is a different kind of player. He changes the game. You have to worry about him when you're on both offense and on defense. Worry too much about him on offense and he'll mess up your shot, if he hasn't blocked it. Worry too much about him on defense and he'll kick it out to Purdue's capable 3-point shooters. So far, that formula has worked for the Boilermakers. That was before they had to contend with the Tennessee Volunteers! Purdue hasn't faced a defense like this one in this tournament. Tennessee allowed 49 and 58 points its first 2 games!

Excellent on both sides of the ball, the Volunteers are peaking at exactly the right time. They got a taste of Purdue in the Maui Invitational. The Boilermakers pulled away late for a 4-point win. The experience of having faced Edey once will help Tennessee in Sunday's rematch. The Volunteers know what he's all about. They know they could have won that game. They know that they've improved since then. The Boilermakers average more than 80 points a game but the Volunteers are 7-1 their last 8 tries versus the spread against teams which average 77 or more per game. Grab the points!

The Alabama offense versus the Clemson defense. Who wins? I say, who cares. I'm going with the total instead! The Tigers kept Arizona and Baylor well below their season averages. The Crimson Tide have the best offense in the country though. They also allow more than 80 points per game, more than 89 per game on the road!

The Tigers have only faced 3 teams which allow more than 77 points a game. The over was 2-1 in those games. Alabama is 26-9 to the over on the season, 6-1 in tournament play. The Tide are going to score more than 80 points, probably significant more, and the Tigers are going to have to do the same if they want to keep pace. The Tigers have scored more than 70 in all 3 of their games and those were better defenses. Against a weaker defense, in a game where they will need to score to keep up, they can easily get more than 80. Go with the OVER!

The Huskies have been impressive but this is the game they finally get tested and this is way too many points. The Illini have also impressed. The stats aren't that far enough. Not far enough to warrant such a big number. The Huskies did win a few more games and they do allow fewer points. The Illini played in a tougher conference though and they also score more points.

Its important to recognize that NONE of Illinois' 8 losses has been by more than 9 points. The Illini do not get blown out. They're 7-0 their last 7 games, 10-1 their last 11. The only loss was by 6 against Purdue. With a 6-1 ATS record, as an underdog, grab the points with Illinois!

Houston versus Duke. In the past, you'd expect the Blue Devils to be favored over the Cougars. Those days are over. The Cougars are the better team, as they were last year. Duke still carries the name and the tradition though and that has helped in preventing this line from being even higher. The Cougars are 12-7-1 against the spread in 20 tries with 3 or more days rest. The Cougars only allow 57.7 points a game. Their defense is for real.

The Cougars are 10-2 versus the spread their last 12 tries, a perfect 12-0 straight up, in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 134.5. The Blue Devils are only 2-5 versus the spread their last 7 tries as an underdog. They found themselves in that role twice this season and went 0-2 ATS with losses against Wake Forest and UNC. This is the end of the road for the Blue Devils!

Illinois has been going over this tournament and all season. The Illini results are creating a high total. They are finally meeting a team which can slow them down. The Cyclones can really get after it on defense! With Illinois permitting a respectable 66.2 points per game versus non-conference opponents, this total is too high!

The Cyclones are 5-1 to the under in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. They have allowed 65 or fewer points in 10 straight games. Last game, they limited Washington State to 56. They kept Houston to only 41. Their last 5 opponents are averaging 56 points and hitting 38% of their field goals. Illinois will get more than 56 but not as many as it usually does. Go with the Under!

So, we've got 2 teams with essentially equal records (Norfolk State is 23-11 and IPFW is 23-12) and one of them is playing at home. But the other is favored. Hmmm. What's the deal? The biggest reason for this is that the Horizon League is considered to be (and is) stronger. That doesn't make the Mastodons better on the road than the Spartans are at home. Ipfw is a solid 12-7 on the road but Norfolk State is a perfect 14-0 at home!

If we go back to the beginning of the season, Norfolk State was projected to be near the top of the MEAC. IPFW was expected to be near the bottom of the Horizon. The Mastodons didn't return a single starter from last season. They should be commended for having the season which they've accomplished but it will end with a loss. The Spartans outscore teams by a 84.5 to 62.6 point margin at home. That cannot be ignored. Make it 15-0 after tonight!

Seattle was 9-3 versus the spread in non-conference action. Having beaten Grand Canyon during the season, the Redbirds know that they can beat this Fairfield team. The Stags are 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 tournament games and the Redbirds are 5-1 versus the spread.

The Redbirds are the stronger team but they also have a scheduling advantage. They play 2 games in 2 days but the Stags are playing 3 games in 3 days. That extra Sunday game played by Fairfield, as opposed to Seattle playing on Saturday, will be a factor. Lay the points with the Redbirds!

My CakeWalk selections are usually reserved for favorites which I expect to win with ease. They don't have to be though. When I am getting points with an underdog which I expect to win outright, as I am here, I can occasionally use that title. Here, we've got a Montana team which won 24 games. Arkansas State won 19. Both teams score roughly the same number of points but Montana allows a lot less.

Though the points aren't likely to come into play, both teams did see their last game decided by 2 or less. Montana won by 1 and Arkansas State won by 2. If this turns out to be another game decided on the final possession, I'd rather be getting points than laying in them. The Grizzlies are 10-3 straight up (9-4 versus the spread) their last 13 tries when playing with 1 days rest or less. They are 25-11 SU their last 36 tries. Let's go Grizzlies!

The San Diego State Aztecs are an experienced team which made a deep run in this tournament. They have the type of team suited to winning at this time of the year. The Yale Bulldogs were fortunate to win the Ivy League Finals. Then, they pulled off a first round upset over Auburn. That was a big win but they won't duplicate it tonight.

The Aztecs will dial up the defensive intensity and low-scoring games don't really suit Colorado. The Buffaloes are just 1-3 versus the spread their past 4 when the total was 120 to 129.5. San Diego State is a perfect 5-0 ATS its past five tries, as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Aztecs caught a break by getting Yale and they will take advantage of it!

The top teams in the Big East are right there among the best and it starts with UConn. The defending champions are taking no prisoners this year. They have scored over 90 points in 2 of their past 3 games. Northwestern won't be able to keep up!

Playing on a neutral court must feel like playing at home for the Huskies. They are 7-1 versus the spread (8-0 SU) their past 8 games on a neutral court. They are 20-6 ATS their last 26. They are now 7-1 ATS their last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Some team will test them but Northwestern won't be the one to do it. Lay the points!

Utah State has gone over the total in 5 straight games. Things will change against a Purdue team off a dominant defensive effort! The Boilermakers held Grambling to only 50 points in round 1. The under is now 4-1 in Purdue's last 5 tries in an NCAA tournament game.

The Boilermakers aren't always as high-scoring as some of the other top teams in this tournament. They have failed to score more than 80 points in any of their last 5 games. When the Aggies play with more than 1 days rest, their games average more than 150 points. When they play with 1 day of rest or less, their games average only 137 points. Go with the Under!

In case you've haven't noticed, the Big 3 in the Big East are all special teams. The Huskies are the defending champs and didn't miss a beat this year. Arizona can compete with the top 3 in the Big East but the other Pac-12 teams cannot. We saw Creighton dismantle Pac-12 Tournament Champion Oregon last night.

Marquette is another special Big East team which has the potential to go a long way. The Buffaloes are 2-4 versus the spread as an underdog. The Golden Eagles are 17-9 versus the spread as a favorite. Lay the points!

North Texas is 9-3 to the over as an underdog. The Mean Green are 5-1 to the over this month. The Mean Green are off an 84-77 victory over LSU and the over is 5-0 when they scored 80 or more points in their previous game.

Seton Hall is 10-5 to the over at home, its last 15 tries when the total is between 135 and 139.5. The Pirates are 3-1 to the over in that situation this season. Seton Hall averages 77.6 points per home game and North Texas is averaging 77.6 points its last 5 games. This number is too low. Go with the Over!

These teams can both really get after it on the defensive end of things. The Gaels just held Gonzaga to 60 points. You saw Gonzaga score 86 yesterday. The Gaels can also hold down the Antelopes! It goes both ways as the Antelopes will also make scoring difficult.

Grand Canyon has allowed an average of 58.8 points its past 5 games. Opposing teams hit only 37% of their field goals in those games. St Mary's has been playing that kind of defense all season! The Gaels allow an average of just 58.7 points. Opposing teams hit only 39% of field goals. Go with the Under.

A small line is offering excellent value with the Big 12 team. The Mountain West is a solid conference but the Big 12 is stacked. The Horned Frogs have wins over teams like Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor, K-State Cincinnati and Oklahoma. They were within a bucket of beating Kansas, and Iowa State. In fact, there were numerous very close losses. This team is better than its record!

The Horned Frogs are 21-9 versus the spread their last 30 tries, off a loss against a conference rival. The only time that they played with 7 or more days rest in between games resulted in an easy cover, a 77-42 blowout. The Frogs were 14-10 versus the spread as favorites, 3-1 ATS as road favorites. TCU is 7-1 straight up its last 8 against Mountain West teams. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS as underdogs and 0-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Lay the small number!

Too many points between two equal teams in a game which will be close. The Wildcats are 4-0 versus the spread their last 4 NCAA tournament games. The Owls are 3-7 versus the spread their last 10 tries as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

The Wildcats are also 6-2 versus the spread their last 8 tries, off a loss against a conference rival. Northwestern has 8 losses since getting blown out on January 2nd. All 8 losses came by single digits. During that time they have beaten teams like Illinois and Michigan State. They know that they can beat this Florida Atlantic team. Grab the points.

This number is too low. This is likely going to be a competitive game. The winning team is probably going to score more than 70 points. Yet, the losing team isn't going to get blown out. Drake scores 80.5 points a game. Washington State scores 74.3. Cougar games average more than 140 points. Bulldog games average more than 150.

Off an 84-80 win, the Bulldogs have scored more than 70 points in each of their last 11 games. The Cougars are off a low-scoring game but their previous 4 games all finished above 140. They are 7-2 to the over after allowing 60 points or less. Drake is 4-2 to the over when the total is 130 to 139.5. Washington State is 7-4-1 to the over when the total is 130 to 139.5. Go with the Over!

Oakland will be outclassed. Kentucky has disappointed in recent tournaments and will be ready to run up the score. It doesn't matter that the coaches are friends. The Wildcats were 8-5 versus the spread against non-conference opponents and they outscored them by an average of 16 points a game.

The Wildcats are 12-2 versus the spread their last 14 tries as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points. Oakland was great with no rest but not so good with lots of it. The Golden Grizzlies are 0-3 versus the spread the last 3 times that they played with 7 or more days rest and 2-6 ATS their last 8 tries in that situation. Lay the points!

We get a good one right out of the gate: SEC taking on the Big Ten. 8 versus 9. Tom Izzo is a legend but Chris Jans is also a winner. I give the edge to the Bulldogs on the floor.

Playing the game at Spectrum Center in Charlotte shouldn't bother the Bulldogs. Did you know that Mississippi State is 9-0 when playing on a neutral court? The only loss came versus Auburn and the Bulldogs were playing their 3rd game in 3 days. The Bulldogs did beat Auburn earlier. They also beat Tennessee twice this year. When facing a Big Ten opponent, they thumped Northwestern. The Spartans split with NW but were outscored by 10 points in the two games combined. Let's go Bulldogs!

Getting to play this game in Jadwin Gymnasium is a big advantage for Princeton. The Tigers were undefeated on their home floor this season. In going 12-0, they outscored visiting teams by an average of 16.8 points. UNLV had some big wins but came up short when it mattered. The Rebels are a long way from home and aren't going to be as motivated as the Tigers.

The Tigers score more points and they allow less. That's not all from the Ivy League schedule either. The Rebels are only 2-5 versus the spread in 7 tries in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5. The Tigers are 6-3 ATS in nine tries, off a loss against a conference rival. Lay the small number!

Not much separates these teams and I'm happy to grab the points being offered. Wagner was 9-7 versus the spread as an underdog. Howard was just 7-11 versus the spread as a favorite. The Seahawks don't score many points but they don't allow many either. Those type of teams give the Bison trouble.

Howard is 1-4 ATS their last 5 tries versus poor offensive teams - scoring

The Bulldogs have gotten their act together just in time. They dominated Cornell yesterday and they will have their way with Brown this afternoon. This is the best team in the Ivy League and that will be on full display this afternoon.

Brown beat them at home less than a week ago but Yale is 4-1 versus the spread, 5-0 straight up the past 5 tries, when avenging a home loss. The Bulldogs are also 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their past 6 tries, as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Yale is still 9-1 the past 10 meetings, even after last week's loss. The Bears' run comes to an end today. Yale by double-digits!

UC Davis might own the better record here. But, we all know that it’s March. The Beach are fighting to get revenge after losing to the Aggies just a week ago today. These two teams split the season series and that doesn’t surprise me. Long Beach State was able to knock off the top team during the regular season in UC Irvine in their last game and are now getting the respect that they deserve.

Long Beach State is 5-1 versus the spread in its last 6 conference tournament games. Cal Davis is 3-8-1 ATS its last 12 as a neutral court favorite of 3 or less. Marcus Tsohonis is someone to keep an eye on. The pace of LBSU should be enough to cause problems for UC Davis and let the 49ers into the big dance for the first time since 2012.

Nice win for the Wolfpack yesterday. Any time you knock out Duke, its a good day! They are only 5-9 versus the spread their last 14 tries off an ATS victory though and now they will face a dominant defensive team. They are 1-4 straight up the past 5 times versus good defensive teams - allowing

Yesterday's results don't tell the whole story as both these teams went to Overtime. The Aztecs are 34-18-1 to the under their last 53 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. That includes a 4-0 under mark in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5. Before yesterday's over due to overtime, the Aztecs were 6-0 to the under their previous 6 conference tournament games.

Utah State can score but SD State is 13-6 to the under last 19 versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. The Aggies are 4-1 to the under in their 5 neurtal court games. They are also 2-0 to the under when playing with 1 or less days rest. The last h2h meeting stayed below the total by more than 10 points. This will be another defensive battle! Go with the Under!

Its never wise to underestimate a Tom Izzo coached team. Sometimes, great coaching isn't enough. The Spartans simply have no answer for Zach Edey. He's dominated them and there's little reason to expect anything different on Friday morning. Edey scored 32 points, while adding 11 rebounds in the game a couple of weeks ago. Last season, Edey averaged 35 points against the Spartans.

If Izzo's Spartans go all out to contain Edey, it'll leave them vulnerable to Purdue's outsider shooters. This will be the first time that the Spartans have played 2 games in 2 days all season. The Boilermakers are 11-7-1 versus the spread with 3 or more day's rest and they are 5-0 straight up and ATS (or 4-0-1) when on a neutral court with wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama and Arizona. The line is low. Lay the points with Edey and the Boilermakers.

Georgia got a fortunate first round matchup against Missouri. The Tigers hadn't won a game in months. This is a big step up in class though and the Bulldogs will be exposed by a stronger Florida team tonight. The Gators won both regular season meetings.

Prior to yesterday, the Bulldogs were 0-3 straight up and versus the spread in neutral site games. Some teams are used to doing so but this will be the first time this season that they played with 0 days rest. When off a loss, as the Gators are, they outscored teams by an average score of 83.8 to 73.4. They'll beat the Bulldogs by at least that many tonight!

Who in their right mind would back Villanova after the Wildcats only beat Depaul by 1 point? Call me crazy and count me in. Yesterday's result was great. It's keeping people off the Wildcats today and that is leading to extra points on the line. With Marquette's best player Tyler Kolek out, and with Nova needing the win more than the Golden Eagles, this is a lot of points. They could come in handy, as Villanova has had some close ones. Yesterday's 1-point game was preceded by a 2-point loss versus Creighton, a game Villanova was down big and showed heart in rallying. Remember the 1-point game versus UConn?

A win today and the Cats could start feeling a lot better about their NCAA Tournament hopes. Marquette already knows it'll be there. The Golden Eagles are 1-2 versus the spread on a neutral floor. The Wildcats have thrived in their neutral court games including victories over UNC, Texas Tech and Memphis. They are 2-0 both straight up and versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. Give me the points!

These teams are closer in talent than the point spread is telling us. They were the two best in the conference last season. The Golden Flashes were favored for the game at Kent State and the Rockets are laying nearly as many today as they were for the game at Toledo. The Flashes are 10-4 versus the spread their last 14 tries on a neutral court.

Toledo won the regular season title last year but Kent State won the MAC Conference Tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Flashes are 5-1 straight up and versus the spread their last 6 games in this tournament. They are coming in confident. The Rockets are only 6-10 versus the spread their last 16 tournament games. Give me the points!

The Gauchos weren't that good against the spread this season. They were good to me when I supported them though. I won my Big West Game Of The Year on them way back in the middle of January. I was high on them then and I still them. I also won with the Gauchos last March 11th, my Big West Tourney Game Of the Year from last year. They were laying a similar number that day that they are today and they won by 10.

The Gauchos have been excellent as short neutral court favorites the past couple of years. In all neutral site games they were 6-3 versus the spread. The Matadors have won just 1 of their last 10 first round tournament games, going 3-7 versus the spread. The Gauchos went to the NCAA Tournament last year. They won't be stopped tonight.

Arkansas' disappointing regular season has provided us with great value in the opening round. Vastly superior to Vanderbilt talent-wise, at least in my opinion, the Razorbacks somehow got upset by the Commodores at home, in late February. They were favored by double-digits! That was a low point and now is a chance to start making things right.

The Razorbacks are 5-1-1 versus the spread their last 7 tries, when revenging a home loss. They are a respectable 8-6 ATS their last 14 tries against losing teams but 13-1 SU in those games. The loss was the Vanderbilt game. The majority of those spreads were a lot higher than this one. Looking for its revenge, Arkansas will move to 14-1 its last 15 tries against losing teams and will cover the small number for us in the process!

If this was truly a neutral site game, the Eagles might be able to keep it close. Coppin State can't be very happy to have to play the Spartans at Norfolk Scope Arena though. The Eagles were 0-17 on the road this season and they were outscored 75.5 to 55.1 in those games.

The Spartans were 13-0 at home and they outscored teams by an average of 84.8 to 62.3. The Spartans played a number of tough non-conference road games (like Tennessee) to get them ready for the postseason. They won at places like Illinois State and VCU and will have no trouble with over-matched Coppin State.

Both regular season games went over the total. This total is lower than the lines for either of those games though. Hmmm. A closer examination reveals why that's the case. The early start time and the magnitude of the moment, may lead to some early jitters. That's not it though. Since the end of February, George Mason has cranked up its defense!

The Patriots defense has been getting better and better every time out. Four games ago, they allowed 61 points. Three games ago, they allowed 59 points. Two games ago? 51 points allowed. Then, last game, they held Richmond to just 46. The game had only 100 total points scored. The under is now 9-1 in George Mason's last 10 games played in March. This game goes under!

The Jackrabbits get a dream matchup and will punch their ticket to the Big Dance tonight. They beat an arguably better team by 10 last night and should win by even more than that tonight. After all, they're off 5 straight wins by 10 or more.

When they met earlier in the season, the Jackrabbits had yet to really hit their stride but when these teams met 3 weeks ago, the Jackrabbits won by 27 points. They've owned the Pioneers for years, the January loss at Denver was an anolmy. Remember that Denver was the #7 seed and had more losses than wins in regular season. South Dakota State will win this one in a "Cake-Walk!"

The River Hawks lost to Vermont in the America East Championship game last year. They want another crack at the Catamounts this year. A win here should earn them that opportunity as Vermont is a 13 point home favorite versus New Hampshire.

Playing this game on their home floor is a major advantage for U Mass Lowell. The Bulldogs are strong at home but below .500 on the road. The River Hawks are 4-0 both straight up and versus the spread in four meetings since last season. They beat them by 22 here a few weeks ago after winning by 9 at Bryant the previous week. Bring on Vermont!

The Fighting Irish aren't a great team but its my belief that they're currently better than Georgia Tech. Both regular season meetings were close but the Irish found a way to win each of them. That will give them confidence for this afternoon's big game.

Notre Dame lost a lot from last season and that meant going through some early growing pains. The talent is there though and they got better. The Irish are 5-3 their past 8 games and all 3 losses were at tough road venues. They've been their best within the conference, going 13-7 versus the spread. Losing senior Lance Terry early on the season didn't help the Yellow Jackets. Their season ends today.

The Wildcats may have a better record and a higher seed but they shouldn't be laying points against anyone right now. Since these teams last met, Davidson has lost 5 straight games. The Rams are also off 3 straight losses but the last 2 have been competitive, including a 2-point road loss at 20-win UMass.

Before that, the Rams had beaten George Mason and blew out Duquesne. Davidson's last 2 losses came by 18 and 10 points. It could be close so I will happily take points but I feel that the Rams are playing better basketball right now and I expect them to come through with the outright victory!

I won with Weber State as my 2023 Big Sky Conference Tourney GOY. The Wildcats led from wire-to-wire in their quarterfinal victory over Sacramento State. The Wildcats brought back a ton of experience and depth from that team, including unanimous First Team All-Conference performer Dillon Jones. Jones had 18 points (plus 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals) in last year's GOY win.

Jones is even more dominant this season. He averages more than 20 points and more than 10 rebounds. He's scored more than 20 points in 3 straight games and at least 17 points in each of his past 12. Heavily favored to win this conference before the season started, Jones and the Wildcats know that their time is now. They lost to the Bobcats to close out the regular season but will avenge that loss with a big win "when it counts" on Monday.

James Madison is in a class of its own in the Sun Belt and will prove it again this evening. The Dukes are 28-3 and they haven't lost since January. They beat Texas State by 17 in the lone regular season meeting. A dominant team, the Dukes also have the schedule in their favor.

Both teams played yesterday. Its not surprising that JMU had an easier time with Marshall than Texas State had with Troy. Not only did the Bobcats have to battle harder yesterday but they also will already be playing their 4th game in this tournament, the first of which went to Overtime. It will catch up them against a superior opponent which had a double-bye and will be playing just its second game of the tourney. Lay the points!

I always enjoy getting points with a team which I expect to win outright! Though its unlikely that such a small point spread will come into play, when considering how close the regular season meetings were, its far from impossible. Those scores were 72-71 and 64-62, in Overtime. The Terriers won both games!

You'll hear people say that its hard to beat a team 3 times. Guess what? It happens! I like to counter with the argument that its hard to beat a team which has already beaten you twice. Not only has Boston beaten Lehigh twice but the Terriers get to play this game at Case Gym, their very own home floor. They are 9-6 at home, Lehigh is 7-10 on the road. Boston is 6-1 the last 7 meetings and gets it done again this afternoon!

It didn't look good for the Bulldogs for a time yesterday. They showed resiliency, grit and heart though and got the game to OT. Once there, they dominated. They won the extra session by a 12-1 margin. They'll bring that positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Longwood also went to OT yesterday. So, as far as minutes played, the teams are equal in that regard.

Give the Lancers credit for taking down High Point, the tournament hosts. This will be an even tougher matchup for them though. The Bulldogs were the preseason favorites in the Big South. The Lancers were picked 5th. The Bulldogs have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. This afternoon, they will prove the preseason pundits right!

The Kangaroos enter the tournament on a hot streak. The opposite is true of the Pioneers. The tournament is a chance to wipe the slate clean though and those recent results have provided additional line value with the underdog. In the regular season,  UMKC was only favored by 2 points at home against the Pioneers. (The Pioneers were favored by 4.5 at Denver.) Tonight, the Roos are laying more than that for a neutral site game. Value!

This is unfamiliar territory for the Roos. They aren't used to being favored in tournament games. They are 15-44 SU their last 69 tournament games, 5-21 in conference tourney games. Over the last 2 seasons, they are 2-8 (3-7 ATS) in tournament play, 0-2 SU/ATS in the Summit Tourney. The Pioneers are 6-3 ATS their last 9 tries, when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Denver is also 6-2 ATS its last 8 tries as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Grab the points!

This is another case of too many points in a game which should come down to the wire. The Blue Devils did win both regular season meetings. Those wins each game by a single point though. That's 3 straight meetings which were decided by exactly one point. Scores of 73-72, 69-68 and 58-57. The previous two before that were both double-digit Wagner wins.

One of the reasons Wagner gives the Blue Devils trouble is its defense. The Seahawks allow just 62.8 points per game. Central Connecticut is just 4-8 versus the spread its last 12 tries versus good defensive teams - those allowing

Alabama is a great team but given Alabama's recent struggles and the recent history between the teams here, this is a case of too many points. The Crimson Tide are off consecutive losses and have dropped 3 of their past 4. Their last two wins both were by 15 or less. Arkansas is off a big win and had won 3 of its past 5. The Razorbacks' last 3 losses all came by single-digits. Khalif Battle has scored 141 points over his past four games. That's the most in a four-game SEC span in 20 years!

The last 2 meetings at Alabama were both decided by 3 points or less. Last year's game here had a score of 86-63 and the year before the score was 68-67. This one will also be closer than expected. Grab the points!

Give me all those points with Tennessee Martin! The Eagles are a really good team but they're running into a really hot opponent. The Skyhawks are a perfect 7-0 both straight up and versus the spread their last 7 games. They won 21 games this season and they are 9-1 ATS their last 10. One of those wins came versus Morehead State.

The Eagles easily won yesterday but still didn't cover. They are playing 2 games in 2 days for the first time this season. Even with 1 day's rest, they are 3-6 versus the spread. Grab the points with the rested, higher-seed! **OVC Tourney GOY**

The Aztecs are no longer in the running for the regular season title. They have bigger fish to fry though. They want to win the Conference Tournament in order to get as high a seed as possible for the NCAA Tournament, which is where the ultimate goal lies. They don't want to expend too much energy in winning the Conf. Tournament though. That means that they absolutely do not want to have to play 4 games in 4 days to win it. If they lose tonight, they'd be in danger of dropping all the way down to the 6 seed. That would mean no bye and it would mean they would need to win 4 games in 4 days, which would leave them weary for the Big Dance. This game is important.

The Aztecs are undefeated at home this season. A victory here gives them their first undefeated home record in school history. They are 4-1 ATS their last 5 tries when revenging a road loss vs opponent. They are also 4-1 ATS their last 5 tries off a MWC loss. Better still, they are 4-0 versus the spread as home favorites of 6.5 to 9 points. They will still be perfect in that role after tonight. Lay the points!

Yesterday was a favorable matchup for Belmont as the Bruins got to beat up on a bad Valparaiso team. That was expected but today's opponent represents a night-and-day difference. The Panthers were one of the preseason favorites to win this conference and they've been showing that type of form. They closed the season off 3 consecutive double-digit wins.

The last meeting saw UNI win by 11 at Belmont. The Bruins are 6-11 versus the spread, when playing against a team with a winning record. The Panthers are 8-3-1 versus the spread their last 12 on a neutral court. They are hot and rested and they will secure a small upset by knocking off Belmont this afternoon. **MVC Tourney GOY**

The Panthers do play high-scoring games but this total is too high. The 2 regular season meetings had totals of 142 and 147. Radford's last 3 games had scores of 58-57, 71-62 and 67-60. That last of those occurred in the opening round. Two of High Point's last 3 games have finished with 146 or less.

High Point won both regular season meetings and Radford is 11-6 its last 17 tries when playing with road revenge, 5-2 to the under this season. As the better team and also getting to play at home, the Panthers are big favorites. When they get a big lead, which is likely, they can slow things down in the 2nd half. Go with the Under.

This is a big rivalry in the Bay area. The Golden Bears won at Cal but the Cardinal will win here at Stanford. The Cardinal are 3-0 straight up and versus the spread their last 3 tries in a home game where the total is 155 to 159.5. The Cardinal are also 13-8 ATS their last 21 tries in the road revenge role.

The Bears are playing their 3rd straight road game. They lost the first game by 10 and then got annihilated by 39 last game. The Bears beat up Stanford at Cal last season but the game at Stanford was an entirely different story. The Cardinal crushed Cal by 29. Lay the points!

The class difference between these teams will be on full display this afternoon. Belmont (19-12) is hot. The Bruins are 3-0 (straight up and versus the spread their last 3 games and 7-1 their last 8. The Bruins are also 5-1 their last 6 tries against losing teams.

Valparaiso, 6-17 versus the spread its last 23 first round conf. tournament games, is 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last 6 tries, when the total was in the 150 to 159.5 range. The Bruins dominated both regular season meetings including an 18 point win at Valparaiso in the most recent. No reason to expect anything different this afternoon. Lay the points.

The SEC is very strong this season. South Carolina has defied the odds and thrived. The Gamecocks' most surprising victory came on January 30th when they went to Tennessee and upset the Volunteers. If that was the highlight of the Gamecocks' season so far, it was also the low point of the Volunteers season. It marked their only home loss, as they are 14-1 at home. They haven't forgotten and they will be ready to make things right.

South Carolina averages 72 points a game. Tennessee averages more than 80. The Volunteers more than doubled the Gamecocks here last season, as they won 85-42. South Carolina will score more than 42 tonight but wont be able to keep up. Vols in a blowout!

The Royals pulled off a minor upset at Florida Gulf Coast last night. Playing 2 road games in 2 days won't be easy for them though. They only played with 0 days rest once during the season and that resulted in a 10 point loss. The Royals are also 2-15 SU and 6-10-1 versus the spread when playing on the road.

One of the Royals' road wins came here at Stetson. It won't happen again! The Hatters, 11-2 at home, are 9-4-1 versus the spread their last 14 tries when playing with home revenge, 24-10 ATS (in lined games) in thats situation over the long-term. The Royals are 2-8 versus the spread as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the small number!

I've got the Howard Bison winning big in this one. The records may be similar but the Bison have some matchup advantages. They already beat the Hornets at Delaware State and they beat them by 20 when the teams played here last season. This is Senior Day and that the Bison are going to want to close out their final home game of regular season with a big statement win.

If the Hornets can't beat teams at home, they're rarely able to do on the road. They're 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 tries when playing with home revenge. Delaware State gets outscored by 8.8 points per road game. Howard outscores teams by 6.5 points per home game. The Bison are 4-1 versus the spread their last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points! **Mid Eastern Athletic GOM**

Memphis had its rough patch and are starting to play well again as we enter the month of March. UAB's road record is good, but Memphis' home record is better. The Blazers looked bad in their last game against Wichita State. The Tigers crushed East Carolina. UAB may have won the first meeting. Memphis seeks revenge as they now play this matchup at home. The Tigers are 75-44 ATS long-term when playing with road revenge, 9-5 ATS their past 14.

March has been "Tiger Time." The Tigers are 9-4 straight up as well as against the spread, their last 13 in March. Going back and they're 92-60 ATS (107-49 SU) in March. Even while winning this year's first encounter, the Blazers are 2-18 straight up in their last 20 games against Memphis (0-16 L16 on the road.) This game is important and not just because of it being Senior Day. (The Tigers will honor 5 seniors.) The Tigers are trying to imporve their postseason position. If it can keep winning, Memphis still has a path to a top-four seed and a double-bye in the AAC Championship. Memphis comes away victorious, both SU and ATS!

Big revenge game for the Canisius Golden Griffins here. The Broncs are 5-11 on the road. The Golden Griffins are 8-3 at home. Time for Canisius to get some payback after they lost that overtime game against them in January. This is a good role for the Griffins as they are 3-0 straight-up and versus the spread the past 3 times that they were home underdogs of 3 or less.

Even on their current 5-game winning streak, the Broncs still have a losing record this season. The Golden Griffins are 5-1 versus the spread in their last six games played in the month of March. Canisius has also been on a winning streak having won three in a row. With home-court advantage and the Golden Griffins honoring their seniors for Senior Day, Canisius is your winner.

The Seahawks upset them at Fairleigh Dickinson. This afternoon, the Knights will do the same at Wagner. The Knights are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries, as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick. All five ATS victories were also of the straight up variety. Wagner is the opposite. The Seahawks are 1-3 their past 4 tries as home favorites of 3 or less. All the ATS losses came outright. Last year as 2 point road underdogs, the Knights beat the Seahawks by 18 here! That was after Wagner has won at FDU. Sound familiar?

The Knights love March basketball. They're 20-4 versus the spread their last 24 lined games in the month of March, 5-1 ATS the past 2 years. They are also 9-5 ATS their last 14 tries, after scoring 60 points or less and 5-2 ATS their last 7 tries versus good defensive teams - those allowing

Getting points with the Florida Gators is a bonus, considering that I've got them winning this game outright. The Gators are already 4-2 versus the spread, as an underdog. They're 2-1 the past 3 seasons as road underdogs of 3 or less. Both the wins were both straight up and versus the spread. South Carolina coach Lamont Paris knows that the Gators, 9-2 their last 11, are going to be difficult: We've got a team that's been playing extremely well coming into our place."

This game is going to impact the seeding for the upcoming SEC Tournament. Remember that in the SEC that the top four teams in the final regular-season standings earn byes to the conference tournament quarterfinals. The Gators beat the Gamecocks by 21 last season and they've won 15 of their last 22 visits to South Carolina. They're still the better team and they'll prove it this afternoon!

The UL Monroe Warhawks are 12th in the Sun Belt. The South Alabama Jaguars are 7th. The Warhawks are 3-11 on the road. The Jaguars are 10-6 at home. The Warhawks won a January meeting at UL Monroe. The Jaguars will avenge that loss by blowing them out tonight!

These clubs last played here last February. Favored by 11 points, the Jagurs won by 36! With that victory, they are 36-15 straight up and 23-15 versus the spread at home the past 3 seasons.

The Warhawks are off an 18-point loss versus Texas State. They are 3-7 ATS when off a conference loss. The Jaguars win this game by more than 10 points.

These teams played a month ago, at Campbell. The Cougars won by 23. Playing at home, this will be another one-sided contest. The Cougars have won 7 straight games. Their last 2 wins came by 16 and 19 points. The Fighting Camels are only 3-10 on the road. The Fighting Camels average 64 points per game on the road. The Cougars average 81.7 points per game at home.

Charleston has allowed 57 or fewer points in 2 of 3 games and an average of 65 over its past 5 games. The class of the Coastal Athletic Association, the Cougars are 3-0 SU/ATS after allowing 60 or fewer points. The Fighting Camels are allowing 83.6 points their last 5. Better on both offense and defense, the Cougars will dominate from start to finish.

After consecutive losses, the Gamecocks won at Ole Miss last game. They will now be playing their second straight road game and they will do so against a desperate Texas A&M. Though the Aggies have lost 4 in a row, 3 of those losses were on the road. They are still 9-4 at home. They will be happy to face a South Carolina team which they beat by 41 points the last meeting.

The total for this game is in the mid 130s. The Aggies are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. Over the last 3 seasons, Texas A&M is 31-16-1 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5. They are also 6-2 ATS (8-0 straight up) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points with the Aggies!

Penn State won at home on the weekend but the road has not been kind to the Nittany Lions. They are only 3-10 away from home and they allow more than 78 points per road game.

The Hawkeyes lost at Penn State earlier this month and they lost at Illinois last game. Winning on the road has been difficult for them as well. They are 3-8 away from home. They are 11-3 in 14 home games though and they outscore visiting teams by more than 12 points a game here.

The total for this game is currently 161.5 or 162. A high-scoring game will favor the Hawkeyes. They are 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 versus the spread their past 17 tries when playing a home game with a total of 160 to 164.5. They average 90 points a game here and they will blow out Penn State tonight!

What can you say about Mississippi Valley State? Projected in the preseason to finish last in the Southwestern Athletic Conference, the Delta Devils haven't disappointed. They are now 0-27 on the season! Most of their games have gone under but there have been certain spots where the over has hit. This will be another of those.

When playing at home with an O/U line of 135 to 139.5, the Delta Devils are 2-0 to the over. The over is 6-3 their last 9 in that situation. Over the same time-frame, the Delta Devils are 18-8 to the over when playing with revenge. Neither team plays good defense. The Delta Devils allow more than 79 points a game. The Panthers allow more than 76 per game, 78.6 per game on the road. This game will feature plenty of scoring. Southwestern Athletic TOY

Not many will want to back the Hurricanes in this spot. Miami has lost 6 straight games, one of them to North Carolina. The Hurricanes are 1-5 versus the spread in those games, 0-4 the past 4. That's going to keep people off them. The oddsmakers are forced to post a very large point-spread. That's giving us exceptional value on the road underdog.

The Hurricanes have been playing some close games. Miami is off a 4-point loss and that the game against North Carolina was decided by only 3 points. The Tar Heels have also been playing some close ones. They are 5-3 their last 8 games and only one of the games was a win by more than 10 points. That was a 15-point win over Virginia Tech, a team which Miami is 2-0 against.

The Hurricanes are on a long-term 43-24 ATS run, after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. They are also 8-2 versus the spread (7-3 straight up) their last 10 tries, revenging a home loss vs opponent and 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games where the total was 150 to 154.5. The Hurricanes won outright here last February. Give me the points!

Minnesota has been printing money for its backers this season. The Gophers have been excellent versus the point-spread all season and they beat Nebraska by 11 back in December. Their ATS success comes to a screeching halt this evening though. Nebraska has been strong at home this season and the Gophers lost by 11 here on this exact day last year.

The Cornhuskers are a perfect 6-0 versus the spread their past 6 tries when revenging a road loss vs opponent. They are 17-8 ATS their last 25 tries. With a 5-1 ATS record this month, 3-0 ATS the last 3, Nebraska is playing better than it was for the earlier meeting. The Gophers are 20-41-1 ATS their last 62 a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Lay the points with Nebraska this evening.

They can't make this total high enough. The earlier meeting finished at only 152 but that was a game where Tulane didn't score. At home, the Green Wave will get a lot more than they 69 they scored that day. Why can I say that with such certainty? Because UAB just allowed 94 points last game and more importantly because Tulane averages 88.7 points per home game.

Tulane is 12-4 to the over its past 16 tries when revenging a road loss. The Green Wave are 26-14-1 to the over in home lined games the last 3 years. During the same timeframe, UBA is 20-12 to the over on the road. The Blazers are also 13-5 to the over after allowing 80 or more points. The only previous time that Tulane lost 3 straight, the Green Wave answered with a 92-80 win. This will be another shootout!

A trip to Hawaii isn't easy on students. Coaches can help them avoid distractions but there's the physical toll of the trip itself. There's also a tough defensive team waiting for them upon arrival. The Warriors are 10-6 here. They make scoring difficult. Visiting schools score 67.7 points per game here. Long Beach State allows more than 77 points per game on the road.

The Warriors are 5-3 versus the spread their last 8 tries as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick. They lost last month at Long Beach State but they beat the Beach by 9 here last season. They're undefeated at home this month including a revenge win. They will help close out our Saturday with another win and cover.

Some recent lower scores have brought this number down and it is now too low. North Alabama games average more than 152 points. The Bellarmine shooters are going to relish the opportunity to face the Lions who give up more than 79 points per game on the road.

The Lions can score with the best of the A-10 teams though and thats why they are favored. The Knights are 11-7 to the over their last 18 tries when listed as underdogs. The Lions are 12-5 to the over their last 17 tries, when playing with 1 or less days rest. I've got this one finishing well over the number.

Small line but this should be a big win in this Big South Conference "Battle of the Bulldogs" this afternoon. The Gardner Webb Bulldogs won at Gardner Webb but they only have 5 wins in 16 road games. The UNC Asheville Bulldogs are 12-1 at home. They outscore teams by an average of 18.9 points here!

UNC Asheville is 5-0 versus the spread its last 5 home games where the total is 150 to 154.5. Gardner Webb is 1-6 versus the spread (0-7 straight up) its last 7 tries, in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5. UNC Asheville has thrived in the revenge role and is 9-4 versus the spread its last 13 tries, when off a conference loss. UNC Asheville beat GW by 12 here last season. Lay the points.

The Nittany Lions upset the Hoosiers at Indiana. Now the Hoosiers will do the same right back to them. The Hoosiers have won 12 of their last 20 games here. Off 3 straight losses, they really need this game.

The Hoosiers are 5-3 versus the spread when off a loss against a conference rival, 17-12 ATS the last 3 years. The Nittany Lions are 4-7 versus the spread after scoring 80 points or more. Penn State is also 3-6-1 ATS its last 10 as a favorite. Give me the points with Indiana.

Home-court means a great deal to each of these clubs. The Ospreys are 10-4 at home but 5-9 on the road. The home/road differences are even greater for Jacksonville. The Dolphins are 2-13 away but 10-1 at home. The Ospreys won at North Florida. Now the Dolphins will win at Jacksonville.

The Dolphins allow only 59.5 points per game at home. The Ospreys allow 81.4 points per game on the road. The Dolphins are 7-1 straight up and versus the spread their last 8 tries in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5.

It was on this day (2/23) 2 years ago that Jacksonville beat North Florida 71-39. The Dolphins will repeat history and will improve to 4-1 versus the spread in five tries when playing with road revenge.

The first meeting had a higher O|U line than this. This one is too low. With the Skyhawks off an 88-82 victory over Morehead State, it's going to be another barn-burner tonight. Tennessee Martin is 3-1 to the over after scoring 80 or more. The Skyhawks average more than 80 points and their games average more than 156.

Lindenwood is off a lower-scoring game. The Lions lost 72-57 at Eastern Illinois. They gave up more than 90 (91-63 loss) in their previous game though and they are 11-4 to the over their last 15 games with a total, after scoring 60 or less in their previous game. Last year, these teams played a lower-scoring first game and the rematch was higher-scoring and finished over the total. That's what'll happen again this year. Go with the Over.

Too many points. Samford can really score but so can the Paladins. Furman won this season's first meeting by 10 points. The Paladins have won 4 straight in the series and 9 of the last 10. Four of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 or fewer points, one of those going to Overtime.

Samford is off a 4-point loss. Furman has won 3 straight games, the margin of victory growing with each one. The Paladins are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries when listed as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. The Paladins are also 11-1 ATS versus good offensive teams after at least 15 games have been played, good being defined as teams which score 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Grab the points.

For a game involving the Fordham Rams, this total is too low. Fordham's last game had 148 points. The Rams have allowed 75 or more points in each of their last 3 games. They have allowed 65 or more (and as many as 119) in 15 straight games.

Davidson's last game had 136 in regulation, 161 with OT. For the season, Davidson games are averaging 138.5. Their previous game versus Fordham exceeded that average finishing with 148.

Davidson is 6-1 to the over its last 7 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Fordham is 7-1 its last 8 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. Go with the Over!

They beat them at Iowa State but the Cyclones aren't built to go on road and to contend with a team like these Houston Cougars. They feed off the energy at home but all 5 of their losses have come on the road or at a neutral site. They are 5-8 versus the spread their 13 versus good defensive teams - allowing

The Spartans lost in the MEAC Championship game last season. They are determined to get back there and to win it this year. They are gearing up to do so and that means beating teams like NC Central when they come for a visit.

The Eagles are off back to back losses. The Spartans are off a victory. The Eagles won this season's first meeting. They aren't as good on the road though and the Spartans are undefeated at home. In 10 games here, they outscore teams by a 87.6 to 62.8 average score. The Spartans are also 6-1-1 versus the spread their last 8 tries when playing with road revenge. They are 5-0 ATS their last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and they will get us a win and cover tonight.

These are two bubble teams, both coming in hungry for a victory. This season's first meeting slipped under the total and this one will be even lower-scoring. The Pirates don't score nearly as many points on the road. They managed only 54 points in their last road game. Seton Hall did respond with a big game versus Xavier. That was at home though and the Pirates are 13-6-1 to the under the past 20x times that they scored 80 or more in their previous game.

The Red Storm lost the first meeting and they are also off a loss in their last game. They are 6-3-1 to the under off a loss and they are also 3-0 to the under their last 3x that they played with road revenge. Give me the Under!

The Tigers may be wounded but they are still very dangerous. Prior to losing their last game to North Texas, they had won 3 straight. They have also defeated SMU 4 straight times. The Tigers are especially deadly as underdogs. Over the last 3 years, they are 14-5 versus the spread, when getting points. This season, they are 4-2 in the underdog role with 4 outright victories.

The Mustangs lost a close 3-point game at Memphis in January. Revenge isn't much of a motivator for them though as they are only 5-9 versus the spread their last 14 tries in the road revenge role. The Mustangs are 12-18 ATS their last 30 tries when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games and they are 4-8 ATS their last 12 tries versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Give me the points!

The Ramblers are strong at home but beatable on the road. They are 11-16 versus the spread the L3 years when off a conference victory. During that time, they ware 1-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

Though they are off consecutive ATS victories on the road, the first a big SU win and the second a close 2-point loss, the Rams have also been much stronger at home. They are 9-4 here, averaging 88 points. They've won 4 of their last 6 games here. Three of those were decided by 4 points or less. Give me the points with Rhode Island!

The Wildcats have a score to settle. The Sun Devils beat them by a point here last season. Arizona did go on to lay a beating on its instate rivals in the Pac-12 Tournament. Yet, the Wildcats are going to be determined to make this one hurt.

Arizona is 12-4 versus the spread when playing against a team with a winning record. The Wildcats average 93.4 points per home game.

Arizona State is 0-3 versus the spread when the total is 150 to 159.5. The Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS their last 7 tries with a total in that range. They average only 67 points per road game. This will be a "cake-walk."

Short line for Duquesne at home. The Dukes are 8-4 at home. The Hawks are 3-6 on the road. The Hawks narrowly won the first meeting, at St. Josephs. Duquesne won the last game here by 14 points.

The Hawks are 1-3 versus the spread as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick. They have won just 8 of their last 39 road games which had a total of 145 to 149.5.

Off a bad loss to Dayton, Duquesne will respond. The Dukes are 2-0 versus the spread, after scoring 60 points or less In that situation, they beat Fordham by 9 and they went on the road and beat St. Bonaventure by 6. Dukes do it again!

This total is too high. Last year's totals were 134.5 and 136.5. The games finished with 141 and 145. This total is in 150s.

Nebraska allowed only 59 points last game. Penn State's last 3 road games have seen the Nittany Lions concede only 46, 71 and 68 points.

The Corn Huskers are 4-1 to the under their last 5 tries when playing with 5 or 6 day's rest in between games. In two such occasions this season, the games have averaged 128.5 points. I'm projecting this afternoon's game to also come in under the 150 mark. Go with the Under.

This is a case of too many points. Cornell was favored by 5.5 points over Harvard here last season, also a mid-February game. The Crimson won outright by 17 points! Having lost this season's first meeting, the Crimson are coming in with another upset on their minds.

Harvard dominated Dartmouth last game. Cornell is off a tough 2-point loss to Yale. Though the Big Red covered the spread in that game, they are only 5-11 against the number of their last 16 games played in February.

Cornell can really score but Harvard is 19-7-1 its last 27 against the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Harvard is also 3-0 against the spread its last 3 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Grab the points.

The Wolverines took the first meeting by a score of 65-58. That was at home and they are 2-11 on the road. The Lancers are 10-4 at home. They limit visiting teams to less than 64 points per game.

The point spread is low partly because Cal Baptist has lost 3 straight games versus the number. The Lancers are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 lined games, after 3 straight non-covers. The Lancers have to win this one as they face the best team in the conference next, the first of 3 straight road games. Lay the small number!

It's not going out on a limb to say that James Madison is very likely going to win this game. The Dukes are 22-3 and favored by 2 touchdowns. The Panthers are 11-13 and 4-10 on the road. The question becomes: what kind of game will it be? Will the Dukes dominate the Panthers with their defense or run them out the door with their offense?

A look to last season provides a valuable clue. The Dukes blew out the Panthers in both games last year but they did so in 2 very different fashions. In the gam at Georgia State, they dominated defensively, a 63-47 victory. The game at James Madison played out differently, the Dukes ran the Panthers out of the building in a 90-69 offensive thrashing. With JMU averaging more than 86 points at home and GSU allowing 79 ppg on the road, this one will play out like last year's game here did. The Panthers will move to 10-5 to the over in their road games. Go with the OVER!

Tennessee is a very strong team but Arkansas is much better than most bettors realize. These were both top 10 teams in this year's preseason rankings. Public perception is providing us with a very generous line on a talented and live underdog.

The Razorbacks have under-achieved but they have turned the corner. They won their last game and have 2 wins their last 3 games. The Razorbacks are 9-4 SU at home and 38-9 here the last 3 years. They are 11-1 SU their last 12 home games where the total is 150 to 154.5

The Volunters are 6-5 on the road, only 3-8 against the spread. They are 8-13-1 versus the spread their last 22 tries, in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5. They are off a loss to the Aggies and have dropped 2 of their last 4.

The Razorbacks have beaten the Volunteers the last few meetings here and they are 10-3 the last 13 here. In a game they could end up winning outright, let's grab all those points! **SEC GOY**

South Carolina is one of the bigger surprises of the season. Picked to finish in the basement, or at least near the bottom, of the competitive SEC Conference, the Gamecocks have thrived. They won't sneak up on the Tigers though and Auburn is a double-figure favorite for a reason.

When the Tigers win, they win big. Their last 6 victories have all come by at least 14 points. They have beaten the Gamecocks 6 straight times, the last 5 of those all came by greater than 10 points. The Tigers are 10-5, both straight-up and against the spread, their last 15 off a conference loss. They are also 5-0 versus the spread the past 5x that they home favorites of 9.5 to 12 points. This will be another cakewalk.

This is a very low total. These may not be offensive super-powers but the number is still too low. Boston is 13-6 to the over last 3 years when a total was in the 120s. Army is 7-4 to the over the last 3 years when a total was in the 120s.

Boston is 18-7 to the over its last 25 tries, when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. The Terriers are 3-0 to the over this month and the over is now 14-4 in their February games the last 3 seasons. This month's games have all finished with at least 138 points.

Army is off a 136 point game versus Navy. That game also had a low total but the final score finished well above it. Last month's game finished over and the over is 5-1 the past 6 meetings. Go with the Over!

They say that an elephant never forgets. Apparently a "Wolf Pack" rarely does either. Nevada is an exemplary 79-50 against the spread its last 129 lined games, when playing with road revenge. That includes a 15-7 against the spread record when playing with revenge from a road loss of 20 or more points. Think the Wolf Pack remember last month's 89-55 throttling at New Mexico? You better believe it!

Since that beating, the Wolf Pack have won 3 straight, both straight up and versus the pointspread. The Lobos have dropped 2 of their last 3. They've been underdogs twice this season and came up short in both instances. Lay the small number!

This total is a few points higher than it was for last month's game at Air Force. With both teams currently struggling to hit the basket, it's too high.

Air Force has scored 56, 64 and 66 points its last 3 games. All three games had lower totals than this one. But those opponents could score. Tonight the Falcons face a San Jose State squad which has scored 60, 57 and 47 its last 3 games. The Spartans have scored 65 or less in 5 straight.

The Falcons are a perfect 3-0 to the under the past 3x that they were road underdogs, or pick, of 3 or less. Before last month's game finished at 137, the previous 4 meetings all finished with 134 or less. This one will also stay below that number!

Time will tell but I believe that they've got the wrong team favored in this one. I love a good home underdog as much as the next guy. The problem is Texas Tech isn't even a home underdog. The Red Raiders are laying points against a top 5 Kansas team. Short-handed or not, the Jayhawks are still the stronger team.

The Jayhawks are battling through some adversity as they are short-handed. The statuses of McDowell and McCuller are both up in the air. Important players that make the Jayhawks better. They just beat Baylor without them though, the defense elevating and delivering a peak performance.

The Red Raiders have battled illness themselves and are also coming off a strong defensive game. They are only 11-19 ATS their last 30 tries, after allowing 60 or less. Kansas is already 2-0 ATS as an underdog. The Jayhawks have beaten the Raiders 8 of the last 9 times and 3 of the last 4 meetings were decided by 2 buckets or less. Grab the points.

A number in the 130s at this venue, with these teams, is too low. The Panthers play higher-scoring games away from home. Northern Iowa road games average 147.1 points. The opposite is true of Illinois-Chicago. The Flames play higher-scoring games at home. Their games here average 143.9 points.

The Panthers are 19-11 to the over their last 30 tries when off a conference win. The Flames are 10-5 to the over their last 15 off a conference win and 11-7 to the over their last 18 when playing with revenge. The O|U line was 138.5 when the Panthers played here last season. Sound familiar? The final score was 150. Go with the Over!

Villanova's strong homecourt defense will make the difference in this afternoon's game against the Seton Hall Pirates. Seton Hall allows 69.4 points per road game. The Wildcats only permit 63.9 points per home game. Visiting teams average less than 30 first half points and hit just 40% of their field goals.

The Wildcats are 6-1 against the spread when the O|U line was in the 130 to 139.5 range. The Wildcats are 2-0 ATS when playing a home game with an total of 130 to 134.5. They are also 5-2 ATS their last 7 as home favorites of 3.5 to 6 points.

The Wildcats lost a close one at Xavier last game but they pounded Providence in their last home game. They will bounce back with another big home win.

San Francisco can score plenty of points but that's been factored into this very high total. Too high. The Dons are already 2-0 to the under this season when the O/U line was in the 150s. Both games finished in the 140s.

Santa Clara often has trouble scoring. The Broncos managed only 59 points last game. They had a similar 58-point effort versus Yale. Less than a month ago, they scored only 49 against St. Mary's. They are 7-3 to the under their last 10 versus teams which score 77+ points/game after 15+ games.

They played a high-scoring OT game in the West Coast Conference Tournament last year but 7 of the last 9 regular season meetings have finished with 150 or less. This game stays Under! **WCC TOY**

Wright State is one of the fastest teams in the country. The Raiders can run visiting teams right out of the building. They average 87.7 points per home game and 88.8 points a game in Horizon League play. They connect on a very high 56.4% of their field goals, in this building.

Oakland struggles against top level competition. The Golden Grizzlies are 1-3 against the spread their last 4 against teams with a winning record. That brings them to 8-14-1 ATS their last 23 tries, when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games.

These teams will face each other again on February 25th, at Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies will have a chance in that one but not today. The Raiders are 9-3 SU and 7-5-1 ATS their last 13 as a host in the series. Unable to contend with the pace, the Golden Grizzlies aren't going to know what hit them!

Off their upset win at North Carolina, my feeling is that the Tigers are ripe for a letdown on Saturday afternoon. Clemson is 1-3 straight up and against the spread, when coming off a win over an ACC rival. They are also 5-9 ATS when off a SU win overall.

The ACC is always difficult but the Orange have also played some strong non-conference opponents like Gonzaga, Tennessee and Oregon. Clemson won't scare them. There have been some issues on the road but the Orange are 11-1 at home. The only time that they were home underdogs, the Orange smashed NC State by 12 points.

This has long been a strong role for Syracuse. The Orange are 14-5, both SU and ATS, as home underdogs of 3 or less, or pick. Grab the points.

These teams faced each other 3x in 2023. All 3 went under the total, as all 3 meetings finished with 125 or fewer points. Scores were 63-62 and 62-58 in the regular season and 68-56 in the A-10 Tournament.

The Rams have gone under 4 straight times and they are 6-0 to the under their last 6 against winning teams.

The Flyers are off a big offensive output at St. Joseph's but they'll face a better defense tonight. The Flyers are 7-3 to the under the last 10 times that they played a road game with a total of 135 to 139.5, a 4-0 under mark this season. Let's avoid Overtime and this game will stay under the total!

This is splendid value. We get Hawaii at home, playing with revenge and we don't even have to lay any points. Hawaii is 31-15 at home the last 3 seasons. Uc San Diego is 15-25 on the road.

This is no easy place to play and that's not just because of the travel factor. The Warriors 12-6 straight up their last 18 off a loss, won their last home game by 10 points. They allow only 66 points a game here. It was 365 days ago that they beat UC San Diego here by 7 points. Home court will reign supreme and the Warriors will win again tonight!

For under bettors, Seattle home games are the gift that keeps on giving. In Seattle's last 41 home lined games, the Redhawks are 30-9-2 to the under.This season, the Redhawks are allowing 64 points. Visiting teams hit only 40.4% of their field goals. Abilene Christian plays high-scoring games (158.4 points) at home but much lower-scoring (145.4 points) road games.

Last game, the Redhawks won 61-60. That was a road game. Last home game, they won 62-61. They will slow down the Wildcats and keep this final score below the total!