All Sports Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
03-27-24 | Bruins v. Lightning -104 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
The Bruins are one of the best teams in hockey. They could even hoist the Cup this year. They're not very good when playing 2 games in 2 days though. Off a win over the Panthers last night, they will not be able to complete the state of Florida sweep tonight. Boston is only 4-6 when playing with 0 days rest. The Lightning, 7-2 in March and 6-1 their last 7, come in well-rested. They had the last 2 nights off. They have taken 2 of 3 meetings against the Bruins this season, winning 5-4 here at Tampa. They are playing great and they will be fresh. Let's go Lightning! |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Mavs +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 132-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
If you pay attention to how teams fare in certain situations, you'll understand why this the case of the wrong team being favored. Both teams are off a victory last night. That works in favor of Dallas. The Mavericks are 8-3 versus the spread their last 11 tries, when playing with 0 days rest. The Kings are only 4-8 ATS when doing so. The Kings played great defense last night. The problem is that they are only 2-9 ATS their last 11 tries, after allowing 105 points or less. The Mavericks are 29-18-1 ATS (30-18 straight up) when revenging a home loss, 12-5 ATS their last 17. The Kings won twice at Dallas but the Mavericks get them back tonight! |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Fairfield v. Seattle University -7 | Top | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Seattle was 9-3 versus the spread in non-conference action. Having beaten Grand Canyon during the season, the Redbirds know that they can beat this Fairfield team. The Stags are 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 tournament games and the Redbirds are 5-1 versus the spread. The Redbirds are the stronger team but they also have a scheduling advantage. They play 2 games in 2 days but the Stags are playing 3 games in 3 days. That extra Sunday game played by Fairfield, as opposed to Seattle playing on Saturday, will be a factor. Lay the points with the Redbirds! |
|||||||
03-26-24 | Devils v. Maple Leafs -134 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a great price on Toronto. The Maple Leafs are off a loss to Carolina, a top level opponent. They will be angry and fired when they encounter a weaker New Jersey club. Toronto is 8-2 (+5.2) their last 10 tries, when playing against a team with a losing record. The Maple Leafs are also 9-1 the last 10 meetings with the Devils. The Devils are off a 4-0 victory but they are an atrocious 25-47 (-36.6) their last 72 tries, after a win by 2 goals or more. This season, they are 4-17 (-20.4) when off a win by 2 or more goals! Give me the better team on home ice! |
|||||||
03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -15.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
This is as essentially as big a mismatch as it gets in the NBA. The Denver Nuggets are the defending champions. They need to keep winning and they dominate teams at home. The Memphis Grizzlies are playing for nothing. This is a team which is beleaguered by injuries. The last time that these teams faced each other, the Nuggets won by 37 points. The Nuggets have won 41 of 50 meetings here and many of them have been blowouts. The last 5 Denver home wins over Memphis have all been by at least 13 points. With the Grizzlies only 4-7 versus the spread their last 11 tries with 2 days rest, this one will see the Nuggets win by at least 20! **WESTERN CONF GOM** |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Yale v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The San Diego State Aztecs are an experienced team which made a deep run in this tournament. They have the type of team suited to winning at this time of the year. The Yale Bulldogs were fortunate to win the Ivy League Finals. Then, they pulled off a first round upset over Auburn. That was a big win but they won't duplicate it tonight. The Aztecs will dial up the defensive intensity and low-scoring games don't really suit Colorado. The Buffaloes are just 1-3 versus the spread their past 4 when the total was 120 to 129.5. San Diego State is a perfect 5-0 ATS its past five tries, as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Aztecs caught a break by getting Yale and they will take advantage of it! |
|||||||
03-24-24 | Utah State v. Purdue UNDER 149 | Top | 67-106 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Utah State has gone over the total in 5 straight games. Things will change against a Purdue team off a dominant defensive effort! The Boilermakers held Grambling to only 50 points in round 1. The under is now 4-1 in Purdue's last 5 tries in an NCAA tournament game. The Boilermakers aren't always as high-scoring as some of the other top teams in this tournament. They have failed to score more than 80 points in any of their last 5 games. When the Aggies play with more than 1 days rest, their games average more than 150 points. When they play with 1 day of rest or less, their games average only 137 points. Go with the Under! |
|||||||
03-22-24 | TCU -3.5 v. Utah State | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 56 m | Show |
A small line is offering excellent value with the Big 12 team. The Mountain West is a solid conference but the Big 12 is stacked. The Horned Frogs have wins over teams like Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor, K-State Cincinnati and Oklahoma. They were within a bucket of beating Kansas, and Iowa State. In fact, there were numerous very close losses. This team is better than its record! The Horned Frogs are 21-9 versus the spread their last 30 tries, off a loss against a conference rival. The only time that they played with 7 or more days rest in between games resulted in an easy cover, a 77-42 blowout. The Frogs were 14-10 versus the spread as favorites, 3-1 ATS as road favorites. TCU is 7-1 straight up its last 8 against Mountain West teams. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS as underdogs and 0-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Lay the small number! |
|||||||
03-21-24 | Drake v. Washington State OVER 138 | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This number is too low. This is likely going to be a competitive game. The winning team is probably going to score more than 70 points. Yet, the losing team isn't going to get blown out. Drake scores 80.5 points a game. Washington State scores 74.3. Cougar games average more than 140 points. Bulldog games average more than 150. Off an 84-80 win, the Bulldogs have scored more than 70 points in each of their last 11 games. The Cougars are off a low-scoring game but their previous 4 games all finished above 140. They are 7-2 to the over after allowing 60 points or less. Drake is 4-2 to the over when the total is 130 to 139.5. Washington State is 7-4-1 to the over when the total is 130 to 139.5. Go with the Over! |
|||||||
03-20-24 | UNLV v. Princeton -2.5 | Top | 84-77 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
Getting to play this game in Jadwin Gymnasium is a big advantage for Princeton. The Tigers were undefeated on their home floor this season. In going 12-0, they outscored visiting teams by an average of 16.8 points. UNLV had some big wins but came up short when it mattered. The Rebels are a long way from home and aren't going to be as motivated as the Tigers. The Tigers score more points and they allow less. That's not all from the Ivy League schedule either. The Rebels are only 2-5 versus the spread in 7 tries in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5. The Tigers are 6-3 ATS in nine tries, off a loss against a conference rival. Lay the small number! |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves +7.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Give me the points with Timberwolves! The situation is that the Nuggets are off a buzzer beater loss on Sunday and the Timberwolves are off a comeback win last night. Because of the lack of rest, the Nuggets are laying a hefty number as a road favorite. Too hefty! If we look at Minnesota's 10 games with 0 days rest we find a 7-3 straight up record. Closer examination reveals that all 3 losses came on the road, the last 2 both by single-digits. The Timberwolves are 4-0 straight up when playing a home game after playing the previous day. Twice they've played a home game after playing an away game and they won those games by an average of 118-107. On the season, the Timberwolves have a better home record than Denver does a road record. Give the me points! *Northwest GOW |
|||||||
03-19-24 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings -160 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The Red Wings need a victory and Columbus is the right opponent to get one against. Detroit is already 2-0 against the Blue Jackets this season. The Blue Jackets have been bad all year and they have lost 4 of their last 5. They have many injuries and nothing to play for. The Red Wings are still waiting for the return of Dylan Larkin but otherwise are quite healthy. This is a game which they cannot afford to lose. The Red Wings lost last game but that was on the road and they were playing with 0 days rest. They have been much stronger at home all season and they won their last game here 4-1. This game will be all Detroit! |
|||||||
03-18-24 | Hawks v. Lakers -8.5 | Top | 105-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
I wasn't surprised that the Hawks showed up for last night's game. I don't believe that they'll be able to do it two nights in row though. Atlanta is 4-7 versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. When playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games, the Hawks are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread. They lost those 2 games by an average score of 120-111. Overall, the Hawks are only 12-19 ATS as underdogs. They are really bad when they are off an upset victory. In that situation, they've gone 10-27 ATS their last 37 tries, 3-7 ATS this season. The Lakers lost at Atlanta in January but they smashed the Hawks by 16 the last meeting here. Another big win coming up tonight! |
|||||||
03-15-24 | NC State v. Virginia -2.5 | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Nice win for the Wolfpack yesterday. Any time you knock out Duke, its a good day! They are only 5-9 versus the spread their last 14 tries off an ATS victory though and now they will face a dominant defensive team. They are 1-4 straight up the past 5 times versus good defensive teams - allowing |
|||||||
03-15-24 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 137.5 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Yesterday's results don't tell the whole story as both these teams went to Overtime. The Aztecs are 34-18-1 to the under their last 53 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. That includes a 4-0 under mark in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5. Before yesterday's over due to overtime, the Aztecs were 6-0 to the under their previous 6 conference tournament games. Utah State can score but SD State is 13-6 to the under last 19 versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. The Aggies are 4-1 to the under in their 5 neurtal court games. They are also 2-0 to the under when playing with 1 or less days rest. The last h2h meeting stayed below the total by more than 10 points. This will be another defensive battle! Go with the Under! |
|||||||
03-14-24 | Villanova +4.5 v. Marquette | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Who in their right mind would back Villanova after the Wildcats only beat Depaul by 1 point? Call me crazy and count me in. Yesterday's result was great. It's keeping people off the Wildcats today and that is leading to extra points on the line. With Marquette's best player Tyler Kolek out, and with Nova needing the win more than the Golden Eagles, this is a lot of points. They could come in handy, as Villanova has had some close ones. Yesterday's 1-point game was preceded by a 2-point loss versus Creighton, a game Villanova was down big and showed heart in rallying. Remember the 1-point game versus UConn? A win today and the Cats could start feeling a lot better about their NCAA Tournament hopes. Marquette already knows it'll be there. The Golden Eagles are 1-2 versus the spread on a neutral floor. The Wildcats have thrived in their neutral court games including victories over UNC, Texas Tech and Memphis. They are 2-0 both straight up and versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. Give me the points! |
|||||||
03-13-24 | CS-Northridge v. UC-Santa Barbara -3 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The Gauchos weren't that good against the spread this season. They were good to me when I supported them though. I won my Big West Game Of The Year on them way back in the middle of January. I was high on them then and I still them. I also won with the Gauchos last March 11th, my Big West Tourney Game Of the Year from last year. They were laying a similar number that day that they are today and they won by 10. The Gauchos have been excellent as short neutral court favorites the past couple of years. In all neutral site games they were 6-3 versus the spread. The Matadors have won just 1 of their last 10 first round tournament games, going 3-7 versus the spread. The Gauchos went to the NCAA Tournament last year. They won't be stopped tonight. |
|||||||
03-13-24 | Raptors v. Pistons OVER 231.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
There won't be much defense on display at Detroit tonight. The Pistons are off a big win and thats been a situation which has led to high-scoring game. They are 5-1 to the over after a win by 10 or more points. They are also 9-2 to the over against Atlantic Division teams. The Raptors are 21-9 to the over in raod games when the total was 220 or more. When it creeps up as high as 230 or more, they are 13-3 to the over. Toronto road games average 239.6 points. The last 2 h2h meetings finished with 256 and 255 points. Go with the over! |
|||||||
03-13-24 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas -5.5 | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Arkansas' disappointing regular season has provided us with great value in the opening round. Vastly superior to Vanderbilt talent-wise, at least in my opinion, the Razorbacks somehow got upset by the Commodores at home, in late February. They were favored by double-digits! That was a low point and now is a chance to start making things right. The Razorbacks are 5-1-1 versus the spread their last 7 tries, when revenging a home loss. They are a respectable 8-6 ATS their last 14 tries against losing teams but 13-1 SU in those games. The loss was the Vanderbilt game. The majority of those spreads were a lot higher than this one. Looking for its revenge, Arkansas will move to 14-1 its last 15 tries against losing teams and will cover the small number for us in the process! |
|||||||
03-12-24 | Bryant v. UMass Lowell -5.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
The River Hawks lost to Vermont in the America East Championship game last year. They want another crack at the Catamounts this year. A win here should earn them that opportunity as Vermont is a 13 point home favorite versus New Hampshire. Playing this game on their home floor is a major advantage for U Mass Lowell. The Bulldogs are strong at home but below .500 on the road. The River Hawks are 4-0 both straight up and versus the spread in four meetings since last season. They beat them by 22 here a few weeks ago after winning by 9 at Bryant the previous week. Bring on Vermont! |
|||||||
03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
I won with Weber State as my 2023 Big Sky Conference Tourney GOY. The Wildcats led from wire-to-wire in their quarterfinal victory over Sacramento State. The Wildcats brought back a ton of experience and depth from that team, including unanimous First Team All-Conference performer Dillon Jones. Jones had 18 points (plus 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals) in last year's GOY win. Jones is even more dominant this season. He averages more than 20 points and more than 10 rebounds. He's scored more than 20 points in 3 straight games and at least 17 points in each of his past 12. Heavily favored to win this conference before the season started, Jones and the Wildcats know that their time is now. They lost to the Bobcats to close out the regular season but will avenge that loss with a big win "when it counts" on Monday. |
|||||||
03-10-24 | Texas State v. James Madison -10.5 | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
James Madison is in a class of its own in the Sun Belt and will prove it again this evening. The Dukes are 28-3 and they haven't lost since January. They beat Texas State by 17 in the lone regular season meeting. A dominant team, the Dukes also have the schedule in their favor. Both teams played yesterday. Its not surprising that JMU had an easier time with Marshall than Texas State had with Troy. Not only did the Bobcats have to battle harder yesterday but they also will already be playing their 4th game in this tournament, the first of which went to Overtime. It will catch up them against a superior opponent which had a double-bye and will be playing just its second game of the tourney. Lay the points! |
|||||||
03-10-24 | Coyotes -175 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -175 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Chicago has no home ice advantage. The Blackhawks are also at a scheduling disadvantage. They lost at Washington yesterday. The Hawks are 2-8, when playing on back-to-back days. They are 7-30 (-14) with 0 days rest, for the last 3 years. Over that time, they are 15-58 (-35.2) versus division opponents. Arizona hasn't quit fighting. The Coyotes beat Detroit 4-0 last game and have won 3 of their last 5. They will be playing with revenge as the Hawks beat them less than a week ago, at Arizona. They will be determined not to lose 2 in a row to the worst team in the league and they won't! Coyotes win and improve to 15-12 against losing teams. *CENTRAL DIV GOM |
|||||||
03-10-24 | Lehigh v. Boston University +1.5 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
I always enjoy getting points with a team which I expect to win outright! Though its unlikely that such a small point spread will come into play, when considering how close the regular season meetings were, its far from impossible. Those scores were 72-71 and 64-62, in Overtime. The Terriers won both games! You'll hear people say that its hard to beat a team 3 times. Guess what? It happens! I like to counter with the argument that its hard to beat a team which has already beaten you twice. Not only has Boston beaten Lehigh twice but the Terriers get to play this game at Case Gym, their very own home floor. They are 9-6 at home, Lehigh is 7-10 on the road. Boston is 6-1 the last 7 meetings and gets it done again this afternoon! |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Denver +5 v. UMKC | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
The Kangaroos enter the tournament on a hot streak. The opposite is true of the Pioneers. The tournament is a chance to wipe the slate clean though and those recent results have provided additional line value with the underdog. In the regular season, UMKC was only favored by 2 points at home against the Pioneers. (The Pioneers were favored by 4.5 at Denver.) Tonight, the Roos are laying more than that for a neutral site game. Value! This is unfamiliar territory for the Roos. They aren't used to being favored in tournament games. They are 15-44 SU their last 69 tournament games, 5-21 in conference tourney games. Over the last 2 seasons, they are 2-8 (3-7 ATS) in tournament play, 0-2 SU/ATS in the Summit Tourney. The Pioneers are 6-3 ATS their last 9 tries, when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Denver is also 6-2 ATS its last 8 tries as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Grab the points! |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Wagner +6.5 v. Central Connecticut State | Top | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
This is another case of too many points in a game which should come down to the wire. The Blue Devils did win both regular season meetings. Those wins each game by a single point though. That's 3 straight meetings which were decided by exactly one point. Scores of 73-72, 69-68 and 58-57. The previous two before that were both double-digit Wagner wins. One of the reasons Wagner gives the Blue Devils trouble is its defense. The Seahawks allow just 62.8 points per game. Central Connecticut is just 4-8 versus the spread its last 12 tries versus good defensive teams - those allowing |
|||||||
03-09-24 | Luton Town v. Crystal Palace -132 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -132 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
I said this about Luton Town last week: "Luton Town is not a good team. The Hatters are off an ugly 6-2 loss in FA Cup action and they reside in 18th spot in the Premier League standings. Injuries have taken a toll, particularly to the defense. The Hatters have also dropped 3 straight league matches. Relegation is becoming more likely." The Hatters would go on to lose 3-2 to Aston Villa. Now Aston Villa is a difficult opponent but at least the Hatters were at home. Now, they're on the road to take on a hungry Crystal Palace squad. Palace hasn't forgotten that it lost at Luton Town and is out for revenge. Even with that result, four of the Eagles' last five Premier League fixtures against newly-promoted sides have resulted in victory. They are much stronger at home in front of the Selhurst Park faithful. Last home game resulted in a 3-0 victory over Burnley. Palace will exact some revenge from the loss at Luton Town. |
|||||||
03-08-24 | Morehead State v. Tenn-Martin +7.5 | Top | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Give me all those points with Tennessee Martin! The Eagles are a really good team but they're running into a really hot opponent. The Skyhawks are a perfect 7-0 both straight up and versus the spread their last 7 games. They won 21 games this season and they are 9-1 ATS their last 10. One of those wins came versus Morehead State. The Eagles easily won yesterday but still didn't cover. They are playing 2 games in 2 days for the first time this season. Even with 1 day's rest, they are 3-6 versus the spread. Grab the points with the rested, higher-seed! **OVC Tourney GOY** |
|||||||
03-08-24 | Boise State v. San Diego State -7.5 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The Aztecs are no longer in the running for the regular season title. They have bigger fish to fry though. They want to win the Conference Tournament in order to get as high a seed as possible for the NCAA Tournament, which is where the ultimate goal lies. They don't want to expend too much energy in winning the Conf. Tournament though. That means that they absolutely do not want to have to play 4 games in 4 days to win it. If they lose tonight, they'd be in danger of dropping all the way down to the 6 seed. That would mean no bye and it would mean they would need to win 4 games in 4 days, which would leave them weary for the Big Dance. This game is important. The Aztecs are undefeated at home this season. A victory here gives them their first undefeated home record in school history. They are 4-1 ATS their last 5 tries when revenging a road loss vs opponent. They are also 4-1 ATS their last 5 tries off a MWC loss. Better still, they are 4-0 versus the spread as home favorites of 6.5 to 9 points. They will still be perfect in that role after tonight. Lay the points! |
|||||||
03-08-24 | Belmont v. Northern Iowa +1.5 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Yesterday was a favorable matchup for Belmont as the Bruins got to beat up on a bad Valparaiso team. That was expected but today's opponent represents a night-and-day difference. The Panthers were one of the preseason favorites to win this conference and they've been showing that type of form. They closed the season off 3 consecutive double-digit wins. The last meeting saw UNI win by 11 at Belmont. The Bruins are 6-11 versus the spread, when playing against a team with a winning record. The Panthers are 8-3-1 versus the spread their last 12 on a neutral court. They are hot and rested and they will secure a small upset by knocking off Belmont this afternoon. **MVC Tourney GOY** |
|||||||
03-07-24 | California v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 58-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a big rivalry in the Bay area. The Golden Bears won at Cal but the Cardinal will win here at Stanford. The Cardinal are 3-0 straight up and versus the spread their last 3 tries in a home game where the total is 155 to 159.5. The Cardinal are also 13-8 ATS their last 21 tries in the road revenge role. The Bears are playing their 3rd straight road game. They lost the first game by 10 and then got annihilated by 39 last game. The Bears beat up Stanford at Cal last season but the game at Stanford was an entirely different story. The Cardinal crushed Cal by 29. Lay the points! |
|||||||
03-06-24 | Thunder -13 v. Blazers | Top | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Off three straight road games, Portland returns to the Pacific Northwest. Playing at home is not an advantage for the Trail Blazers. They are 10-18-1 versus the spread here. The Trail Blazers are also 16-31-1 versus the spread, after playing 3 consecutive road games. The Thunder average 120.9 points per game. The Trail Blazers average only 107.6. When matched up against low-scoring teams like Portand, the Thunder tend to dominate. They are 31-9-1 versus the spread their last 41 versus poor offensive teams - those. scoring |
|||||||
03-06-24 | Senators -150 v. Ducks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Different teams react differently to different amounts of days in between games. Many teams struggle with no rest. Others thrive. Some are at their best with 1 or 2 days rest, others do better with 3 or more. The Ducks have had the past 2 days off and that is NOT a favorable situation for them. Anaheim is 0-7 this season with 2 days rest in between games. Over the past 3 seasons, the Ducks are 10-36 (-24.8) with 2 days rest. Over that time, Anaheim is also 15-44 after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous game. The Senators, 4-3 with 3 or more days rest, play with revenge from a home loss to the Ducks. They are 27-18 their last 45 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season and they will get it done for us tonight! |
|||||||
03-06-24 | RB Leipzig v. Real Madrid OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
The first leg was low-scoring but with this match being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu and with RB Leipzig needing to score goals to win, this match will be much higher-scoring. Real Madrid is off a 2-2 draw with Valencia in La Liga action. Last Champions League home match, Read Madrid scored 4 times. Leipzig is off a 4-1 victory over VfL Bochum. The Germans will have to throw caution to the wind and that will lead to scoring chances, for both sides. Go with the OVER! |
|||||||
03-05-24 | Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 228.5 | Top | 139-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Toronto plays higher-scoring games against teams from the West than it does against teams from the East. New Orleans is the opposite. The Pelicans tend to play higher-scoring games against Eastern Conference opposition. That was on display when these teams played exactly one month ago. That 2/5 game finished with 238 points. With the Pelicans off since 3/1, this will be another high-scoring game. Three times the Pelicans have played with 3 or more days rest. All 3 games went over the total. The Raptors are 18-12 to the over when playing against a team with a winning record. This game will be a shootout! |
|||||||
03-04-24 | Delaware State v. Howard -4 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
I've got the Howard Bison winning big in this one. The records may be similar but the Bison have some matchup advantages. They already beat the Hornets at Delaware State and they beat them by 20 when the teams played here last season. This is Senior Day and that the Bison are going to want to close out their final home game of regular season with a big statement win. If the Hornets can't beat teams at home, they're rarely able to do on the road. They're 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 tries when playing with home revenge. Delaware State gets outscored by 8.8 points per road game. Howard outscores teams by 6.5 points per home game. The Bison are 4-1 versus the spread their last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points! **Mid Eastern Athletic GOM** |
|||||||
03-03-24 | Juventus v. Napoli | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
As good as Napoli was last season, you'd expect them to at least contend for another UCL spot this season. Well, that has not been the story so far. Having said that, Napoli is coming off a very important win against Sassuolo, where they netted six goals in a 6-1 victory. Napoli has won all of the its last four meetings in Naples against Juventus. Juventus have a strong record, but haven't been particularly good as of late. They've lost two of their last four contests and struggled against a poor Frosinone side in their last game. Since coming back from injury, Victor Osimhen has scored five goals and assisted one in three games (including his UCL performance against Barcelona.) He should help provide a boost to this Napoli team that was shut out in the reverse fixture. Juventus haven't 'swept' them since 2018-19. Napoli wins this game on Sunday! |
|||||||
03-02-24 | Avalanche -127 v. Predators | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
The Predators are really hot at the moment. They've been beating up on bad teams though. Some of their recent wins came against teams like Ottawa, San Jose and Anaheim. Now, they will take on the one of the best in the league. Also, many of the Predators recent wins have come on the road. They are rather rare in that they are stronger on the road than at home. The Predators did beat the Avalanche in this season's first meeting. Colorado has won its past few visits here though. Also, the Avalanche are 15-5 (+8.4) their last 20 in the revenge role, 53-25 (+10.6) over the long haul. The Avalanche won their last game 5-0 after winning their previous one 5-1. They are 12-5 their past 17 tries off a shutout win and they'll get it done for us again today! **Central GOM** |
|||||||
03-02-24 | Fairleigh Dickinson +3 v. Wagner | Top | 57-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The Seahawks upset them at Fairleigh Dickinson. This afternoon, the Knights will do the same at Wagner. The Knights are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries, as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick. All five ATS victories were also of the straight up variety. Wagner is the opposite. The Seahawks are 1-3 their past 4 tries as home favorites of 3 or less. All the ATS losses came outright. Last year as 2 point road underdogs, the Knights beat the Seahawks by 18 here! That was after Wagner has won at FDU. Sound familiar? The Knights love March basketball. They're 20-4 versus the spread their last 24 lined games in the month of March, 5-1 ATS the past 2 years. They are also 9-5 ATS their last 14 tries, after scoring 60 points or less and 5-2 ATS their last 7 tries versus good defensive teams - those allowing |
|||||||
03-02-24 | Aston Villa -141 v. Luton Town | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Luton Town is not a good team. The Hatters are off an ugly 6-2 loss in FA Cup action and they reside in 18th spot in the Premier League standings. Injuries have taken a toll, particularly to the defense. The Hatters have also dropped 3 straight league matches. Relegation is becoming more likely. Aston Villa can score goals in bunches. and that spells trouble for the shaky and depleted Luton Town defense. The Lions scored 4 goals last match. They are off consecutive league victories and have won 3 of their last 4. They handled the Hatters with ease in the reverse fixture, a 3-1 victory. The Lions are top 4 in the standings and can't afford not to get max points out of this type of matchup. Undefeated on the road in 2024, they won their last 2 road matches by a combined score of 7-1. They will be too much for the Hatters again on Saturday. |
|||||||
03-01-24 | Blazers v. Grizzlies OVER 208.5 | Top | 122-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This season's first two meetings had totals of 218 and 220. Those two games averaged 220 points. One had 212 and one finished with 228. Tonight's line is lower than both of those scores. It's far lower than any other Friday total and it's too low. Memphis games average 219.1 points. Portland games average 223.5. The Trail Blazers allow 118 points per game on the road and the Grizzlies are 11-3 to the over their last 14 tries versus poor offensive teams - those scoring |
|||||||
03-01-24 | Flyers -112 v. Capitals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Both these Metro Division rivals have struggled a bit of late. The Flyers are 2-4 their last 6 games. The Capitals are 1-2 their last 3. The Flyers are off a big 6-2 win though and the Capitals are off a big 8-3 defeat. Both are battling for the playoffs. I've of the strong opinion that Philadelphia will make it two in a row. The Flyers have been better than Washington this season. An ability to play well on the road has been key. The Flyers outscore teams by a 3.2 to 2.8 average in their road games. The Capitals get outscored by an average of 3.0 to 2.7 at home. Each team has had 2 days off, a scheduling setup which should favor the Flyers. Philadelphia is 25-20 (+11.9) its last 45 tries, when playing with 2 days rest. Washington is 18-21 (-7.1) when doing so. The Flyers are 3-0 against the Capitals since the start of 2023. With home ice no advantage and with Washington dealing with numerous injuries, Philadelphia is the winner. *Metro Div GOM* |
|||||||
02-28-24 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M -4.5 | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
After consecutive losses, the Gamecocks won at Ole Miss last game. They will now be playing their second straight road game and they will do so against a desperate Texas A&M. Though the Aggies have lost 4 in a row, 3 of those losses were on the road. They are still 9-4 at home. They will be happy to face a South Carolina team which they beat by 41 points the last meeting. The total for this game is in the mid 130s. The Aggies are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. Over the last 3 seasons, Texas A&M is 31-16-1 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5. They are also 6-2 ATS (8-0 straight up) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points with the Aggies! |
|||||||
02-28-24 | Grizzlies v. Wolves OVER 209.5 | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Four of todays' 6 NBA games have totals in the 230s. This is by far the lowest on the Wednesday board. Too low! Minnesota is a good defensive team but Memphis is 15-5 its last 20 to the over, versus good defensive teams - allowing |
|||||||
02-26-24 | Heat +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 121-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
I had the Kings last night. Great game by them. They went to LA and hammered the Clippers, a hated division rival. That puts them in a difficult position tonight. They are 3-5 versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. They are also 3-5 versus the spread when off an upset win as an underdog. The Heat are playing their best basketball and they come in fresh and well-rested. They are 8-1 versus the spread since end of January, 7 of those wins coming outright. That streak began with a 9 point win over Sacramento. Last season's games were both close, decided by 4 and 6 points. With the schedule in their favor, grab the points with the red hot Miami Heat. |
|||||||
02-26-24 | Prairie View A&M v. Mississippi Valley State OVER 136 | Top | 51-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
What can you say about Mississippi Valley State? Projected in the preseason to finish last in the Southwestern Athletic Conference, the Delta Devils haven't disappointed. They are now 0-27 on the season! Most of their games have gone under but there have been certain spots where the over has hit. This will be another of those. When playing at home with an O/U line of 135 to 139.5, the Delta Devils are 2-0 to the over. The over is 6-3 their last 9 in that situation. Over the same time-frame, the Delta Devils are 18-8 to the over when playing with revenge. Neither team plays good defense. The Delta Devils allow more than 79 points a game. The Panthers allow more than 76 per game, 78.6 per game on the road. This game will feature plenty of scoring. Southwestern Athletic TOY |
|||||||
02-26-24 | Islanders v. Stars -160 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The wheels have come off for the Islanders. They are 23-34 overall, 10-18 on the road. A dismal 7-17 (-15.3) record against Western Conference opposition hasn't helped their cause. Now, they play on the road against one of the best teams from the West. That spells trouble. The Stars are 17-11 at home. They score more than 4 goals per game here. The Islanders score less than 3 per game on the road. The Stars won their last game but had lost several before that. They will be inspired to make it 2 in a row and they will also be playing with revenge from a loss at Long Island. Dallas wins big. |
|||||||
02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Not many will want to back the Hurricanes in this spot. Miami has lost 6 straight games, one of them to North Carolina. The Hurricanes are 1-5 versus the spread in those games, 0-4 the past 4. That's going to keep people off them. The oddsmakers are forced to post a very large point-spread. That's giving us exceptional value on the road underdog. The Hurricanes have been playing some close games. Miami is off a 4-point loss and that the game against North Carolina was decided by only 3 points. The Tar Heels have also been playing some close ones. They are 5-3 their last 8 games and only one of the games was a win by more than 10 points. That was a 15-point win over Virginia Tech, a team which Miami is 2-0 against. The Hurricanes are on a long-term 43-24 ATS run, after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. They are also 8-2 versus the spread (7-3 straight up) their last 10 tries, revenging a home loss vs opponent and 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games where the total was 150 to 154.5. The Hurricanes won outright here last February. Give me the points! |
|||||||
02-25-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 123-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Give me the points with Sacramento in this important Pacific Division battle. The Clippers won both this season's meetings but both of those were in 2023. The Kings have been playing well on the road since losing here earlier and they are 44-25-1 versus the spread their last 70 tries in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. The Clippers are 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 games. Their last 4 wins have all been by 6 or less. The Kings are off consecutive wins and their alst loss was by only 5. This game is also likely going to be decided late. Grab the points. **PACIFIC DIV GOM** |
|||||||
02-25-24 | Minnesota v. Nebraska -6.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Minnesota has been printing money for its backers this season. The Gophers have been excellent versus the point-spread all season and they beat Nebraska by 11 back in December. Their ATS success comes to a screeching halt this evening though. Nebraska has been strong at home this season and the Gophers lost by 11 here on this exact day last year. The Cornhuskers are a perfect 6-0 versus the spread their past 6 tries when revenging a road loss vs opponent. They are 17-8 ATS their last 25 tries. With a 5-1 ATS record this month, 3-0 ATS the last 3, Nebraska is playing better than it was for the earlier meeting. The Gophers are 20-41-1 ATS their last 62 a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Lay the points with Nebraska this evening. |
|||||||
02-25-24 | UAB v. Tulane OVER 161.5 | Top | 78-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
They can't make this total high enough. The earlier meeting finished at only 152 but that was a game where Tulane didn't score. At home, the Green Wave will get a lot more than they 69 they scored that day. Why can I say that with such certainty? Because UAB just allowed 94 points last game and more importantly because Tulane averages 88.7 points per home game. Tulane is 12-4 to the over its past 16 tries when revenging a road loss. The Green Wave are 26-14-1 to the over in home lined games the last 3 years. During the same timeframe, UBA is 20-12 to the over on the road. The Blazers are also 13-5 to the over after allowing 80 or more points. The only previous time that Tulane lost 3 straight, the Green Wave answered with a 92-80 win. This will be another shootout! |
|||||||
02-25-24 | Long Beach State v. Hawaii -2.5 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
A trip to Hawaii isn't easy on students. Coaches can help them avoid distractions but there's the physical toll of the trip itself. There's also a tough defensive team waiting for them upon arrival. The Warriors are 10-6 here. They make scoring difficult. Visiting schools score 67.7 points per game here. Long Beach State allows more than 77 points per game on the road. The Warriors are 5-3 versus the spread their last 8 tries as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick. They lost last month at Long Beach State but they beat the Beach by 9 here last season. They're undefeated at home this month including a revenge win. They will help close out our Saturday with another win and cover. |
|||||||
02-24-24 | Wild v. Seattle Kraken -131 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Wild visited here on December 10th, the last time that these teams faced each other. At the time, the Kraken were off to a terrible start. They'd dropped 7 straight going into the Minnesota game and they were off a loss versus Tampa the previous night. The Wild were only to happy to kick the Kraken when they were down. With Seattle playing its 2nd game in 2 days, Minnesota won 3-0. Things are different now. The Kraken just easily beat the best team in the West on Thursday, a 5-2 win over Vancouver. That was their 3rd win in 4 games and they had yesterday off. Not so for Minnesota. The Wild are off a 4-2 upset of Edmonton. They are 2-7 when playing with 0 days rest. Seattle settles the score. |
|||||||
02-24-24 | North Alabama v. Bellarmine OVER 142 | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Some recent lower scores have brought this number down and it is now too low. North Alabama games average more than 152 points. The Bellarmine shooters are going to relish the opportunity to face the Lions who give up more than 79 points per game on the road. The Lions can score with the best of the A-10 teams though and thats why they are favored. The Knights are 11-7 to the over their last 18 tries when listed as underdogs. The Lions are 12-5 to the over their last 17 tries, when playing with 1 or less days rest. I've got this one finishing well over the number. |
|||||||
02-24-24 | Gardner-Webb v. North Carolina-Asheville -3 | Top | 78-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Small line but this should be a big win in this Big South Conference "Battle of the Bulldogs" this afternoon. The Gardner Webb Bulldogs won at Gardner Webb but they only have 5 wins in 16 road games. The UNC Asheville Bulldogs are 12-1 at home. They outscore teams by an average of 18.9 points here! UNC Asheville is 5-0 versus the spread its last 5 home games where the total is 150 to 154.5. Gardner Webb is 1-6 versus the spread (0-7 straight up) its last 7 tries, in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5. UNC Asheville has thrived in the revenge role and is 9-4 versus the spread its last 13 tries, when off a conference loss. UNC Asheville beat GW by 12 here last season. Lay the points. |
|||||||
02-24-24 | Everton v. Brighton & Hove Albion -115 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
Remember what happened when Everton played here last year? Brighton and its fans sure do! The Toffees embarrassed them 5-1. That was last May and its time to make things right. The Toffees are winless in their last 8 league matches (4 losses, 4 draws) and near the bottom of the table. They have scored only 3 goals in their last 6 top flight matches. The Seagulls just smashed Sheffield 5-0 last match. In their last game here at Amex Stadium, they crushed Crystal Palace 4-1. They will be too much for struggling Everton and a big win will help the fans forget what happened here last year. |
|||||||
02-23-24 | North Florida v. Jacksonville | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
Home-court means a great deal to each of these clubs. The Ospreys are 10-4 at home but 5-9 on the road. The home/road differences are even greater for Jacksonville. The Dolphins are 2-13 away but 10-1 at home. The Ospreys won at North Florida. Now the Dolphins will win at Jacksonville. The Dolphins allow only 59.5 points per game at home. The Ospreys allow 81.4 points per game on the road. The Dolphins are 7-1 straight up and versus the spread their last 8 tries in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5. It was on this day (2/23) 2 years ago that Jacksonville beat North Florida 71-39. The Dolphins will repeat history and will improve to 4-1 versus the spread in five tries when playing with road revenge. |
|||||||
02-23-24 | Villarreal v. Real Sociedad -133 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Real Sociedad recorded a 3-0 win over Villarreal in the reverse match earlier this season. That was at Villarreal. Playing at home at Estadio Anoeta, Real Sociedad should comfortable pick up maximum points. The last h2h meeting here resulted in a 1-0 victory for Real Sociedad. It needs to be mentioned that Real Sociedad does have some rather serious injury concerns. However, Villarreal is also dealing with numerous injuries and Real Sociedad has superior depth to deal with theirs. Understand that Real Sociedad is a full 14 points ahead of Villarreal in the standings. The class difference will be evident and Real Sociedad will come away with another win. |
|||||||
02-22-24 | Tenn-Martin v. Lindenwood OVER 148.5 | Top | 106-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The first meeting had a higher O|U line than this. This one is too low. With the Skyhawks off an 88-82 victory over Morehead State, it's going to be another barn-burner tonight. Tennessee Martin is 3-1 to the over after scoring 80 or more. The Skyhawks average more than 80 points and their games average more than 156. Lindenwood is off a lower-scoring game. The Lions lost 72-57 at Eastern Illinois. They gave up more than 90 (91-63 loss) in their previous game though and they are 11-4 to the over their last 15 games with a total, after scoring 60 or less in their previous game. Last year, these teams played a lower-scoring first game and the rematch was higher-scoring and finished over the total. That's what'll happen again this year. Go with the Over. |
|||||||
02-21-24 | Furman +7.5 v. Samford | Top | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Too many points. Samford can really score but so can the Paladins. Furman won this season's first meeting by 10 points. The Paladins have won 4 straight in the series and 9 of the last 10. Four of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 or fewer points, one of those going to Overtime. Samford is off a 4-point loss. Furman has won 3 straight games, the margin of victory growing with each one. The Paladins are 5-1 versus the spread their last 6 tries when listed as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. The Paladins are also 11-1 ATS versus good offensive teams after at least 15 games have been played, good being defined as teams which score 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-21-24 | Arsenal -149 v. FC Porto | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -149 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Porto will be inspired to play in front of its home fans but that will not be enough. The Portuguese squad is fortunate to even be here. Arsenal is in exceptional current form and scoring goals at an alarming rate. In three February EPL matches, the Gunners have scored 14 goals, conceding only one. In their last 5 EPL matches, the Gunners are 5-0 with 17 goals scored. That success will carry over to the Champions League. Porto is dealing with some defensive injuries and that will be a problem. Arsenal hasn't been to the knockout stage of the Champions League for 7 years. The Gunners understand the signficance of the moment and will not be denied victory. |
|||||||
02-20-24 | Fordham v. Davidson OVER 135.5 | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
For a game involving the Fordham Rams, this total is too low. Fordham's last game had 148 points. The Rams have allowed 75 or more points in each of their last 3 games. They have allowed 65 or more (and as many as 119) in 15 straight games. Davidson's last game had 136 in regulation, 161 with OT. For the season, Davidson games are averaging 138.5. Their previous game versus Fordham exceeded that average finishing with 148. Davidson is 6-1 to the over its last 7 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Fordham is 7-1 its last 8 tries when the total is 130 to 139.5. Go with the Over! |
|||||||
02-19-24 | North Carolina Central v. Norfolk State -6 | Top | 74-80 | Push | 0 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Spartans lost in the MEAC Championship game last season. They are determined to get back there and to win it this year. They are gearing up to do so and that means beating teams like NC Central when they come for a visit. The Eagles are off back to back losses. The Spartans are off a victory. The Eagles won this season's first meeting. They aren't as good on the road though and the Spartans are undefeated at home. In 10 games here, they outscore teams by a 87.6 to 62.8 average score. The Spartans are also 6-1-1 versus the spread their last 8 tries when playing with road revenge. They are 5-0 ATS their last 5 tries as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and they will get us a win and cover tonight. |
|||||||
02-19-24 | Senators v. Lightning -155 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Ottawa couldn't even beat Chicago last game, or Anaheim before that. The Senators are 32-51 (-17) the last 3 years, after a non-conference game. Over that time frame, they are also 41-61 (-16.2) in the revenge role, 8-17 (-11.2) their last 25. The Senators are 35-66 their last 101 tries, when playing against a team with a winning record. The Lightning ran into a red hot Florida team last game and suffered the consequences. They will be happy to face a bad team like Ottawa which they always beat here. Tampa is 67-30 (+14.8) its last 98 tries, when playing against a team with a losing record. Lay the price and look for Tampa to come out on top. **ATLANTIC DIV GOY** |
|||||||
02-18-24 | Seton Hall v. St. John's UNDER 145.5 | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
These are two bubble teams, both coming in hungry for a victory. This season's first meeting slipped under the total and this one will be even lower-scoring. The Pirates don't score nearly as many points on the road. They managed only 54 points in their last road game. Seton Hall did respond with a big game versus Xavier. That was at home though and the Pirates are 13-6-1 to the under the past 20x times that they scored 80 or more in their previous game. The Red Storm lost the first meeting and they are also off a loss in their last game. They are 6-3-1 to the under off a loss and they are also 3-0 to the under their last 3x that they played with road revenge. Give me the Under! |
|||||||
02-18-24 | Memphis +4.5 v. SMU | Top | 79-106 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The Tigers may be wounded but they are still very dangerous. Prior to losing their last game to North Texas, they had won 3 straight. They have also defeated SMU 4 straight times. The Tigers are especially deadly as underdogs. Over the last 3 years, they are 14-5 versus the spread, when getting points. This season, they are 4-2 in the underdog role with 4 outright victories. The Mustangs lost a close 3-point game at Memphis in January. Revenge isn't much of a motivator for them though as they are only 5-9 versus the spread their last 14 tries in the road revenge role. The Mustangs are 12-18 ATS their last 30 tries when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games and they are 4-8 ATS their last 12 tries versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Give me the points! |
|||||||
02-18-24 | Manchester United -120 v. Luton Town | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Luton Town was living on borrowed time. The bubble finally burst for the Hatters in their last game. They fell 3-1 to Sheffield United, the worst team in the Premiership. Off that loss, they are in no shape to contend with the rejuvenated Red Devils. Really, the warning signs had been there for Luton Town. The Hatters have only won 1 of their last 5 matches. Undefeated in 4 2024 league matches, Manchester United is 3-0 in February. The wins came by a combined score of 9-4. It's fair to say that United is playing some of its best football in quite some time. The November match was won 1-0 by United. Given the form of the Red Devils and with Luton Town off the loss to Sheffield, this will result in another victory. |
|||||||
02-17-24 | Blue Jackets -138 v. Sharks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
San Jose returns home from a road trip. The first game back is difficult. The Sharks are missing some key players. The Sharks are 23-41 (-9.1) their last 64, after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. The Sharks are also 9-25 their last 34 tries, after a win by 2 goals or more. The Sharks only score 2.2 goals per home game. The Blue Jackets average 3 goals per road game. The Blue Jackets scored 11 goals, including 6 here at San Jose, in sweeping last season's 2 games. They do it again tonight! |
|||||||
02-17-24 | St. Joe's v. Duquesne -2 | Top | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Short line for Duquesne at home. The Dukes are 8-4 at home. The Hawks are 3-6 on the road. The Hawks narrowly won the first meeting, at St. Josephs. Duquesne won the last game here by 14 points. The Hawks are 1-3 versus the spread as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick. They have won just 8 of their last 39 road games which had a total of 145 to 149.5. Off a bad loss to Dayton, Duquesne will respond. The Dukes are 2-0 versus the spread, after scoring 60 points or less In that situation, they beat Fordham by 9 and they went on the road and beat St. Bonaventure by 6. Dukes do it again! |
|||||||
02-16-24 | Harvard +9 v. Cornell | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a case of too many points. Cornell was favored by 5.5 points over Harvard here last season, also a mid-February game. The Crimson won outright by 17 points! Having lost this season's first meeting, the Crimson are coming in with another upset on their minds. Harvard dominated Dartmouth last game. Cornell is off a tough 2-point loss to Yale. Though the Big Red covered the spread in that game, they are only 5-11 against the number of their last 16 games played in February. Cornell can really score but Harvard is 19-7-1 its last 27 against the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games. Harvard is also 3-0 against the spread its last 3 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-15-24 | Utah Valley v. California Baptist -2.5 | Top | 69-46 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
The Wolverines took the first meeting by a score of 65-58. That was at home and they are 2-11 on the road. The Lancers are 10-4 at home. They limit visiting teams to less than 64 points per game. The point spread is low partly because Cal Baptist has lost 3 straight games versus the number. The Lancers are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 lined games, after 3 straight non-covers. The Lancers have to win this one as they face the best team in the conference next, the first of 3 straight road games. Lay the small number! |
|||||||
02-15-24 | Georgia State v. James Madison OVER 154 | Top | 63-83 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
It's not going out on a limb to say that James Madison is very likely going to win this game. The Dukes are 22-3 and favored by 2 touchdowns. The Panthers are 11-13 and 4-10 on the road. The question becomes: what kind of game will it be? Will the Dukes dominate the Panthers with their defense or run them out the door with their offense? A look to last season provides a valuable clue. The Dukes blew out the Panthers in both games last year but they did so in 2 very different fashions. In the gam at Georgia State, they dominated defensively, a 63-47 victory. The game at James Madison played out differently, the Dukes ran the Panthers out of the building in a 90-69 offensive thrashing. With JMU averaging more than 86 points at home and GSU allowing 79 ppg on the road, this one will play out like last year's game here did. The Panthers will move to 10-5 to the over in their road games. Go with the OVER! |
|||||||
02-15-24 | Panthers v. Sabres +137 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Great price on the home underdog Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres just smashed the LA Kings 7-0 on Tuesday. They have scored 5 or more goals in 3 of their last 5 games. Off one of their biggest wins in years, they are feeling good about themselves and can't wait to get back on the ice. The Florida Panthers won again last night. Off 3 straight wins, they have been playing well. The problem is that they are only 13-18 (-11.2) their last 31 tries when playing with 0 days rest. The Sabres are 4-2 their past 6 tries off a shutout win. They are also 17-3-1 when scoring first in games this season and their starting goalie Luukkonen has 3 shutouts (1.60 GAA and .941 save percentage) in his last 12 games. Let's Go, Buffalo! |
|||||||
02-14-24 | Wild -117 v. Coyotes | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Here is a case of 2 teams going in different directions. The Minnesota Wild have won 3 in a row and 6 of their last 8. The Arizona Coyotes are 0-6 their last 6 games. With 28 goals allowed in those 6 games, at least 3 in each, the Coyotes can't keep the puck out of the net. None of Minnesota's last 7 opponents have scored more than 3 goals. The Wild have been waiting for this game and not just because Arizona is struggling. The Coyotes humiliated them 6-0 at Minnesota in January. At the time, the Wild were mired in a 1-7-1 stretch and they had just gotten Kaprizov back from injury for his first game back. Now the healthier and hotter team, the Wild will take advantage of the winnable road game and avenge last month's blowout. **CENTRAL GOY** |
|||||||
02-14-24 | Tennessee v. Arkansas +8.5 | Top | 92-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Tennessee is a very strong team but Arkansas is much better than most bettors realize. These were both top 10 teams in this year's preseason rankings. Public perception is providing us with a very generous line on a talented and live underdog. The Razorbacks have under-achieved but they have turned the corner. They won their last game and have 2 wins their last 3 games. The Razorbacks are 9-4 SU at home and 38-9 here the last 3 years. They are 11-1 SU their last 12 home games where the total is 150 to 154.5 The Volunters are 6-5 on the road, only 3-8 against the spread. They are 8-13-1 versus the spread their last 22 tries, in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5. They are off a loss to the Aggies and have dropped 2 of their last 4. The Razorbacks have beaten the Volunteers the last few meetings here and they are 10-3 the last 13 here. In a game they could end up winning outright, let's grab all those points! **SEC GOY** |
|||||||
02-14-24 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 244.5 | Top | 127-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This season's earlier meeting had 263 points, all in regulation. This one will also lack any semblance of defense. The Indiana Pacers allow 123 points a game on the road. They are 7-2 to the over off an upset loss, 25-10 to the over their last 35 in that spot. The Toronto Raptors are 30-14 to the over their last 44 versus poor defensive teams - defined as teams allowing 116+ points/game. They are 46-25 to the over their last 71 against such teams. The Raptors are also 14-8 to the over this season when the total was set at 230 or higher. Go with the Over! |
|||||||
02-14-24 | Boston University v. Army OVER 124 | Top | 50-65 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a very low total. These may not be offensive super-powers but the number is still too low. Boston is 13-6 to the over last 3 years when a total was in the 120s. Army is 7-4 to the over the last 3 years when a total was in the 120s. Boston is 18-7 to the over its last 25 tries, when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. The Terriers are 3-0 to the over this month and the over is now 14-4 in their February games the last 3 seasons. This month's games have all finished with at least 138 points. Army is off a 136 point game versus Navy. That game also had a low total but the final score finished well above it. Last month's game finished over and the over is 5-1 the past 6 meetings. Go with the Over! |
|||||||
02-14-24 | Bayern Munich -145 v. Lazio | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
We lost with a German team, RB Leipzig, yesterday afternoon. I felt that it was a good spot for Leipzig at home, getting a 0.5 goal. They had numerous chances and a disallowed goal. It took a beautiful goal and a lot of big saves to beat them. Even so, they were up against an elite Real Madrid team, one of the best in the world. This situation is different. This time, its the German side which is one of the best in the world. Bayern Munich, undefeated in their last 12 Champions League matches against Italian teams, is strong on the road. Lazio is vulnerable and won't be able to hold back the German giants. Bayern won both matches against Lazio in the Round of 16 in Feb. and March of 2021, including a 4-1 thrashing at Stadio Olimpico. This will be another victory for the superior side. Go with the visitors. |
|||||||
02-13-24 | New Mexico v. Nevada -2 | Top | 83-82 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
They say that an elephant never forgets. Apparently a "Wolf Pack" rarely does either. Nevada is an exemplary 79-50 against the spread its last 129 lined games, when playing with road revenge. That includes a 15-7 against the spread record when playing with revenge from a road loss of 20 or more points. Think the Wolf Pack remember last month's 89-55 throttling at New Mexico? You better believe it! Since that beating, the Wolf Pack have won 3 straight, both straight up and versus the pointspread. The Lobos have dropped 2 of their last 3. They've been underdogs twice this season and came up short in both instances. Lay the small number! |
|||||||
02-13-24 | Air Force v. San Jose State UNDER 135.5 | Top | 66-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This total is a few points higher than it was for last month's game at Air Force. With both teams currently struggling to hit the basket, it's too high. Air Force has scored 56, 64 and 66 points its last 3 games. All three games had lower totals than this one. But those opponents could score. Tonight the Falcons face a San Jose State squad which has scored 60, 57 and 47 its last 3 games. The Spartans have scored 65 or less in 5 straight. The Falcons are a perfect 3-0 to the under the past 3x that they were road underdogs, or pick, of 3 or less. Before last month's game finished at 137, the previous 4 meetings all finished with 134 or less. This one will also stay below that number! |
|||||||
02-12-24 | Kansas +3 v. Texas Tech | Top | 50-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Time will tell but I believe that they've got the wrong team favored in this one. I love a good home underdog as much as the next guy. The problem is Texas Tech isn't even a home underdog. The Red Raiders are laying points against a top 5 Kansas team. Short-handed or not, the Jayhawks are still the stronger team. The Jayhawks are battling through some adversity as they are short-handed. The statuses of McDowell and McCuller are both up in the air. Important players that make the Jayhawks better. They just beat Baylor without them though, the defense elevating and delivering a peak performance. The Red Raiders have battled illness themselves and are also coming off a strong defensive game. They are only 11-19 ATS their last 30 tries, after allowing 60 or less. Kansas is already 2-0 ATS as an underdog. The Jayhawks have beaten the Raiders 8 of the last 9 times and 3 of the last 4 meetings were decided by 2 buckets or less. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-12-24 | Coyotes v. Flyers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
These teams both have trouble scoring at times. The Coyotes average 2.8 goals per game on the road. The Flyers average 2.8 goals per game at home. This season's first meeting had three first period goals but still only finished at 4-1. The Flyers may have lost their previous starting netminder for a while but they are still getting exemplary goal-tending. They've conceded only 4 total goals thier last 3 games. None of those finished with more than 5 combined goals. Samuel Ersson has been sharp and his backup Cal Petersen came through with a strong performance when called upon last game. The surging Flyers will make scoring difficult for an Arizona team which is missing some attacking pieces. That will help keep this game under the total! |
|||||||
02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 269 h 55 m | Show |
This is not the same Kansas City team that faced the 49ers in the Super Bowl 4 years ago. This year's Chiefs are a defensive team. That's how they got here. They allowed 17.3 points a game in the regular season and they're allowing just 13.7 ppg in the playoffs. San Francisco can make the same claim. The 49ers allowed 17.5 ppg in the regular season, the fewest of any NFC team. Though the playoff numbers aren't as impressive, you just saw their defense stiffen and hold the Lions to 7 second half points. The Chiefs have now seen 8 of their last 9 games finish with 46 or fewer points. Only 1 of their last 17 games has finished with more than 48. This will not be a high scoring game and the total is too high. Go with the Under! |
|||||||
02-11-24 | Northern Iowa v. Illinois-Chicago OVER 138.5 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
A number in the 130s at this venue, with these teams, is too low. The Panthers play higher-scoring games away from home. Northern Iowa road games average 147.1 points. The opposite is true of Illinois-Chicago. The Flames play higher-scoring games at home. Their games here average 143.9 points. The Panthers are 19-11 to the over their last 30 tries when off a conference win. The Flames are 10-5 to the over their last 15 off a conference win and 11-7 to the over their last 18 when playing with revenge. The O|U line was 138.5 when the Panthers played here last season. Sound familiar? The final score was 150. Go with the Over! |
|||||||
02-10-24 | Santa Clara v. San Francisco UNDER 151.5 | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
San Francisco can score plenty of points but that's been factored into this very high total. Too high. The Dons are already 2-0 to the under this season when the O/U line was in the 150s. Both games finished in the 140s. Santa Clara often has trouble scoring. The Broncos managed only 59 points last game. They had a similar 58-point effort versus Yale. Less than a month ago, they scored only 49 against St. Mary's. They are 7-3 to the under their last 10 versus teams which score 77+ points/game after 15+ games. They played a high-scoring OT game in the West Coast Conference Tournament last year but 7 of the last 9 regular season meetings have finished with 150 or less. This game stays Under! **WCC TOY** |
|||||||
02-10-24 | Devils v. Hurricanes -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
The Hurricanes are an elite team. They responded to their 3-2 loss against Vancouver by hammering Colorado, one of the best teams in hockey, by a 5-2 score. They are a profitable 65-37 the last few seasons, after scoring 4 or more goals in their previous game. The Devils are missing a number of important players right now. The missing defense is leading to a lot of goals allowed. They gave up 5 goals last game. That's 28 goals allowed in their last 6 games, a minimum of 3 in each. That many goals allowed won't cut it against a Carolina club which has conceded 2 or less in 4 of its last 5 games, 3 in the other. The Hurricanes own the Devils here. They are 7-1 the last 8 meetings in Raleigh. Nothing changes today. |
|||||||
02-10-24 | Oakland v. Wright State -3.5 | Top | 74-60 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Wright State is one of the fastest teams in the country. The Raiders can run visiting teams right out of the building. They average 87.7 points per home game and 88.8 points a game in Horizon League play. They connect on a very high 56.4% of their field goals, in this building. Oakland struggles against top level competition. The Golden Grizzlies are 1-3 against the spread their last 4 against teams with a winning record. That brings them to 8-14-1 ATS their last 23 tries, when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. These teams will face each other again on February 25th, at Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies will have a chance in that one but not today. The Raiders are 9-3 SU and 7-5-1 ATS their last 13 as a host in the series. Unable to contend with the pace, the Golden Grizzlies aren't going to know what hit them! |
|||||||
02-10-24 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Tottenham Hotspur -120 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
I won with Brighton last Saturday. That was a home match against Crystal Palace. The Seagulls haven't been good at following up a strong result with another one and a road game at Tottenham is going to be far more challenging. The visitors are winless their last five top-flight road games on the road and they've failed to score in the last 2 of those matches. The home side has won its last 4 top-flight games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. South Korea and Mali have now been eliminated from the Asian Cup and Africa Cup of Nations. That means that Tottenham will see the return of captain Son Heung-min and Yves Bissouma, formerly an important defensive midfielder for Brighton. Brighton will get Mitoma back but will still be without some key pieces. Look for Tottenham to avenge a December loss at Brighton. |
|||||||
02-09-24 | Hornets v. Bucks -14 | Top | 84-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The Milwaukee Bucks played last night but that won't save the Charlotte Hornets from the beating which is coming their way. The Bucks won this season's earlier meeting by 31. Charlotte definitely hasn't gotten any better since then and is walking into a hornet's next. The coaching change to Doc Rivers hasn't paid immediate dividends for Milwaukee. The Bucks have now lost 3 straight games and 5 of their last 6. To be fair, 5 of those games were on the road and last night's was against a top level team from the West, the one with the most road wins of any team in the NBA. Clearly, this is a big drop in class. Charlotte lost at Detroit back on January 24th. That marked the first loss of the Hornets' current 9-game losing streak. Seven of their last 8 have come and the Hornets still couldn't get a win. The only road game over that time resulted in a 20-point loss. The Bucks next 2 games come against the defending NBA champions and the defending Eastern Conference champions, Denver and Miami. After that, the Bucks go on the road again. Rivers knows his team needs a big win and that he needs one, too. He will make sure that that the Bucks don't squander this opportunity. |
|||||||
02-09-24 | Penguins v. Wild UNDER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
The Penguins are 54-33 to the under the last few seasons, 13-10 this year, when playing on the road with a total of 6 or more. The Wild are 14-9 to the under at home, when the total was 6 or more. Both teams are playing a low-scoring brand of hockey since the All Star Break. The Penguins last 3 games, all unders, have averaged, 3.3 goals. Minnesota's last 3 games, also all unders, have averaged 4.33 goals. The Wild are now 16-8 to the under their last 24 in the month of February. Remember that Minnesota goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury played for the Penguins for many years. The under trend continues for another night! |
|||||||
02-09-24 | Metz v. Marseille UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Marseille is struggling to score right now. They lost 1-0 to Lyons last match. Three of their last 4 matches have finished with 3 or fewer combined goals. Marseille is struggling to score at the moment. Metz just struggles to score, period. Only last place Clermont scores fewer goals. In fact, they've only found the back of the net twice over their last 7 Ligue 1 matches. Five of those 7 matches finished with 2 goals or less and today's will do the same. |
|||||||
02-09-24 | UC San Diego v. Hawaii | Top | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is splendid value. We get Hawaii at home, playing with revenge and we don't even have to lay any points. Hawaii is 31-15 at home the last 3 seasons. Uc San Diego is 15-25 on the road. This is no easy place to play and that's not just because of the travel factor. The Warriors 12-6 straight up their last 18 off a loss, won their last home game by 10 points. They allow only 66 points a game here. It was 365 days ago that they beat UC San Diego here by 7 points. Home court will reign supreme and the Warriors will win again tonight! |
|||||||
02-08-24 | Pistons v. Blazers OVER 225 | Top | 128-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Detroit is off a 133-120 win last night. The Pistons are 5-1 to the over when off a SU win, 5-0 if that victory was an upset. The Pistons, 5-3 to the over when playing with 0 day's rest in between games, are 17-6 to the over on the road this season. The over is also 30-15 when they were underdogs. Last year's game here had a total of 231.5 and finished with 241 points. At this stage of the season, there's not much reason for playing defense for these teams and tonight's game will also fly over the total. Go with the Over! |
|||||||
02-08-24 | Bulls v. Grizzlies +6.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
The Bulls have the talent edge and are healthier. They've got plenty of their own injuries though and they're on the road. They're also the type of team that the Grizzlies can outwork. When they're at their best, the Bulls can be quite good. They beat Minnesota last game. That was at Chicago. They are only 9-15 on the road. They've got Orlando on deck and the Magic beat them twice. A look-ahead spot past Memphis. The Grizzlies are 20-5 against the spread their last 25 against teams from the Central. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-07-24 | USC v. California UNDER 148.5 | Top | 77-83 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
These teams went over when they played on January 3rd. Both have playing lower-scoring games since then though and both cranked up the defensive intensity in winning their last game. The Trojans held Oregon State to only 54 points. The Golden Bears kept Arizona State to 66. The Bears are now 5-3 to the under since facing USC, a perfect 3-0 under record their last 3. The Trojans are 5-2 to the under their last 7 games. Games at USC have truly been high-scoring. Not so here in Berkeley. The Trojans last visit here produced only 117 points! The Bears are 7-1 to the under their last 8 against losing teams, after at least 15 games. This game goes under! |
|||||||
02-06-24 | Canadiens v. Capitals -149 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -149 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
If the playoffs started today, both these teams would be on the outside looking in. Washington still believes and expects to make a playoff push. Montreal is further back and knows its chances are bleak. The recent trade of center Sean Monahan for draft picks shows they're already thinking about the future. With Brendan Gallagher, another center, serving a suspension, the Habs are weak up the middle. The Capitals were struggling before the break but are going to be ready to go tonight. Ovechkin will lead the way. The Capitals captain commented: "Right now you can see everybody's fresh, everybody's happy to be back and Tuesday's going to be a great day to play hockey." The Capitals are 3-0 the last 3 meetings here, outscoring Montreal 18-6. They will make it 4 in a row tonight. |
|||||||
02-06-24 | Canisius +4.5 v. Niagara | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Canisius is off a bad loss and has struggled of late. That has led to a nice underdog line against an inferior opponent. The Golden Griffins also struggled to start last season. But by February, they turned things around. They're 12-5 against the spread their last 17 in February. This team is fully capable of doing the same and it starts tonight. The Golden Griffins beat the Purple Eagles handily at Canisius last season. The game at Niagara was decided by just 3 points. Niagara has lost 2 of its last 3 home games. All 3 were decided by 6 or less. Canisius is 25-13 against the spread the last 2 years against winning teams and has an excellent chance of winning this game outright. Grab the points. |
|||||||
02-05-24 | Kansas v. Kansas State UNDER 146 | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Kansas comes in hot and defense has been a big part of the reason. The Jayhawks held Houston to 65 points last game. Before that, they limited Oklahoma State to only 56. They will face a Kansas State team which has scored 53 or less in 2 of its last 3 games. This season, Kansas State has been going over the total against losing teams and staying under the total against winning teams. The Wildcats are 11-2 to the under against teams with a winning record. Off a game Saturday, I will point out that Kansas is 3-0 to the under when playing with 0 or 1 day's rest in between games. The Jayhawks are 15-8 to the under in that situation their last 23. K-State is 7-3 to the under when the total was in the 140s and 4-1 to the under at home when the total was 140 to 144.5. This game stays under! **BIG 12 TOY** |
|||||||
02-05-24 | Sevilla v. Rayo Vallecano UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
If Rayo Vallecano can't find victory, a draw is a distinct possibility in this one. Three of the last 4 La Liga meetings between these clubs have ended in draws. I prefer the total. Three of the last 4 h2h meetings have produced 2 or fewer goals. The last 2 h2h matches at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas both ended 1-1. That could happen again, as could a scoreless draw. A 1-0 (or 2-0) win for the home team is also possible. The visitors are likely to have trouble scoring, either way. Sevilla has only found the back of the net twice in its last 4 league matches. With only 3 total goals in its last 8 league matches, scoring is far from guaranteed for Rayo Vallecano. Both clubs are missing some key attacking pieces. This match goes Under! |
|||||||
02-04-24 | Blazers v. Nuggets -13.5 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers hung with the champions for most of Friday's game but they will not be able to do do twice in a row. There was still some question about Jokic's health before Friday but the Denver big man dominated and is fully ready to go for this one. The Trail Blazers may have covered 48 hours ago but they are still 14-26-1 against the spread in divisional game the past 2 years. Portland was practically patting itself on the back for losing by only 12 on Friday. Denver will demonstrate its dominance from the opening tip tonight. The Nuggets are simply much stronger at both ends of the floor. A win of greater than 15 points is expected! |