Everything seemed to go well for the Wolves in game 1, they made tough contested shots, grabbed a plethora of rebounds, and snatched and stole some errant passes from the Suns.However,  doing that two games in a row will be a tough assignment for the Wolves . Yes, Minnesota owns a great defense, but when the men from the Arizona desert are flying their hard to stop and Im betting that will be the case here as they get back into a groove and shoot at above tor at their season average . The Suns dominated the Wolves during the current campaign, winning all three reg season meetings by DDs, and Im now betting they bounce back. 

PHOENIX is 15-4 ATS  after scoring 100 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 7-17 ATS  as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or more ) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 61-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Suns to cover

Denver ranks 6h in-defense ppg allowed , and 14th in offensive production and 27th in pace.Slow and and easy is the defending campions modus operandi, and nothing will chan ge today in the high altitudes of Rockies. Im betting the Nuggets play gridning physcial game as they look to slow down the Lakers and make them work hard for every point, which will lead to a lower socring game than the linesmakers number suggests. 

DENVER is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored.DENVER is 16-6 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season with a combined average of 219 ppg scored.DENVER is 17-8 UNDER (+8.2 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored.DENVER is 8-0 UNDER  in home games against Pacific division opponents this season with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored.

Five of the last eight games here in Denver have stayed under.

Play on the under

These teams have a recent history of playing very physical defensive games in the recent past and Im betting on nothing changing here tonight in game two of this series. Three of the L/4 meetings have failed to eclipse this Totals offering. 

NEW YORK in 26 games  when leading in a playoff series since 1996 have seen a combined average of 174 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-0 UNDER  when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored. 

NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 28-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under 

The New Orleans Pelicans won Friday night's elimination game in the West play-in with a 105-98 victory over the Sacramento Kings and must not be under estimated in their ability to play this  Thunder side tough. I know Zion Williamson will be out, but the Pelicans have come together in efficiently and proved in a top tier defensive game to get here.  It must be noted that New Orleans is 4-1 SU L/5 here in Oklahoma City and the road team have covered seven straight meetings between these teams.Daigneault is 11-24 ATS  in April games as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY with a -9.6 ppg diff. NBA Underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 135 points or more are 64-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pelicans to cover

 The  Pacers since March 20,  have the best offense in the league and sit third in Net Rating and deserve respect here in Game 1 vs a Milwaukee side that is expected to be without their super star Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

MILWAUKEE is 10-21 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff of -10.7. 

INDIANA is 12-1 ATS  in road games versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996. INDIANA is 12-4 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

The Pacers have won the last two meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today.

Play on Indiana to cover

The Suns finished off their reg season with a astounding 125-106 win at Minnesota as underdogs for their third straight win this season vs the Wolves. With that said, Im now betting the Wolves will be ready for redemption/revenge against a team that has soundly beat them this season. Note:PHOENIX is 4-16 ATS L/20  in road games off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog . Also

MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS  revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season. MINNESOTA is 10-0 ATS  revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 39-8 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (PHOENIX) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a home loss are 101-150 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to win/cover

The Magic have played some great defensive ball this season, but their offense can sometimes be stagnant and have been a better team at home in the Magic Kingdom, than they have been on the road. A tell take sign for me going against Orlando today was because they were just  5-10 SU against top-six defenses like the Cavs, averaging 104.4 points per game, Considering the Cavs are fairly healthy at least from the starting unit  perspective with Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen all expected to play, they have a pronounced edge at home. NBA team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 27-4 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.2 which qualifies on the ATS offering. CLEVELAND is 5-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons at home. 

Play on the Cavaliers to cover

The Kings are off a conclusive victory last time out, vs Golden State by a 118-94 count. Note: SACRAMENTO L/16 after allowing 105 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored. Meanwhile, the Pelicans lost a 110-106 battle to the experienced Lakers last time out, but Im betting on them being more aggressive here tonight offensively which in turn will help us see the combined score eclipse this offering. Brown L/42 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of SACRAMENTO has seen a combined average of 230.2 ppg scored.

The nine most recent meetings in this series have all eclipsed this totals offering and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight. 

NEW ORLEANS L/72 games  versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored.

SACRAMENTOs L/41 in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons haver seen a combined average of 232.8 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO L/24 in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. 

SACRAMENTO L/12 in road games when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 65-37 OVER L/27 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the over

In a game like this the physicality  and die heard defense that ranks 3rd in NBA in ppg allowed gives the  the Heat  an advantage. The Bulls rank 16th in the league in D, and their offense has generally been sub standard  ranking 22nd in ppg output. 

MIAMI is 22-10 ATS  in April games over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams (MIAMI) - after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 34-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors 

Play on Miami to cover

My own projections estimate a combined score in the 211-to 214  range giving us a 2 possession edge to the over. I know Miami is a defense first team, but when pushed- which they will be- can light up the scoreboard with some offensive fireworks of their own. Note: The Heat have gone over in 9 of their L/10 overall.  

MIAMI L/77 games as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. MIAMI in 7  road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 219 ppg scored ( Lost 109-105 to Phil on April 4th) MIAMI in L/ 44 games   when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. ( lost last two meetings)

MIAMI is 17-4 OVER  in April games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.3 ppg scored. 

Nurse in 27 games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA has seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.

PHILADELPHIA is 17-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 234.7 ppg scored.

NBA team (MIAMI) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half have seen a combined average of 227.7 ppg scored during a current 65 game sample size over the L/5 seasons. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more have seen a combined average of 213.5 ppg scored over a 233 sample size going back 27 seasons.

Play over

My projections place this game total in the high 220s to low 230s, giving us at least one possession plus edge on this current totals offering. My estimates also suggest both sides will score +114 points- Note:LA LAKERS are 31-0 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 253.2 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 15-1 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 250.4 ppg scored.

The Lakers rank 6th in NBA in offensive production and a lowly 23rd in defensive ppg allowed and a speedy 4th in pace. Meanwhile, the Pelicans rank 13th in offensive production, and 8th in ppg allowed, behind the 17th ranked pace, but those numbers are a little deceiving as they have allowed  a 46.7 % FG conversion rate from opponents at home and in their L/5 overall games entering this game have allowed a 49.7 % FG conversion rate.

Pelicans have gone over in 3 straight games and 7 of their L/9 , while the Lakers have gone over in 4 straight and 6 of their L/7. 

LA LAKERS L/8 after scoring 120 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 234.8 ppg scored.

LA LAKERS are 23-13 OVER  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 9-1 OVER  in road games against Southwest division opponents this season with a combined average of 240.8 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 22-7 OVER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored.

Ham  in 134 games vs sides like the Pelicans allowing a  46% or more defensive FG conversion rate  as the coach of LA LAKERS has seen a combined average of 236 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or  of their shots over a 143 game sample size have seen a combined average of 228 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - average defensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 62-31 OVER L/27 seasons with a average combined score of 230.5 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games have seen a combined average of 233.3 ppg over a 245 game sample size. 

Play over

My projections estimate a combined score in the mid 220s giving us a substantial edge on this totals offering to the over. In a recent meeting these teams combined for 238 points, and even though both teams may rest starters tonight Im betting on a loose game with very little physical defensive action which will help propel this score to higher limits than the linesmkaers expect.

HOUSTON L/33 games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season have seen a combined average of 232.1 ppg scored. HOUSTON L/29 in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season have seen a combined average of 228.3 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 7-0 OVER  in April games this season with a combined average of 237.2 ppg scored. 

LA CLIPPERS L/22 after playing 2 consecutive home games this season have seen a combined average of 234.4 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 2219.5 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 42-18 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play over

Im betting these NY NBA rivals play a fairly wide open game tonight that I project will be higher scoring than the lines-makers are expecting . I know Brooklyn will be short handed overall but their replacements will be playing loose and  looking for extended contracts, so I expect aggressive action. Meanwhile, the Knicks offense has been hitting on all cylinders, and according to my numbers will exceed the 120 point plateau in this event , even though they played last night in a win vs the Celtics. (. NYK has put 122, 128, and 118 points on the board  in their L/3 tilts) Even in a letdown situation, and with the Nets playing short handed we should get over this exaggerated totals offering. 

NEW YORK is 13-4 OVER in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.5 ppg scored. NEW YORK in 44 games as a favorite this season have seen a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. 

BROOKLYN is 37-18 OVER   when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. BROOKLYN iin 43 games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season have seen a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.BROOKLYN i n 36  road games this season has seen a combined average of 224.9 ppg scored.BROOKLYN in 43 games  revenging a loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored.NEW YORK  in 39 home games this season has seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BROOKLYN) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 53-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.6 ppg scored.

Play over

My. projections estimate a total closer to 224  which give us a more than 2 possession value on this offering to the over. The Bulls know they will play the Atlanta Hawks  as the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament. Meanwhile,  the Pistons have lost five straight and 13 of their last 14 games and have nothing left to play for so they will play loose here tonight. With that said, Im betting there will be a lack of  physical intensity defensively tonight and a more wide open game most likely will be on the agenda which signifies a higher scoring output than expected by the linesmakers.

NBA team (CHICAGO) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 63-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate with a combined average of 224 ppg going on the board.

Play on the over

The Clippers clinched the Pacific Division, with their road win in Phoenix last night, and now with revenge on board and in desperation mode Im betting we now see the Suns play with ultimate urgency as they look to avoid the play in tournament.  It also looks like Harden and Leonard will not play tonight for the Clippers giving an edge to the Suns. 

LA CLIPPERS are 1-10 ATS   in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.2.

NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more, playing on back-to-back days are 32-2 L/28 seasons for a 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.6 which easily qualities on this ATS offering. 

NBA Road favorites (PHOENIX) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 23-4 ATS L/5 seasons for 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - vs. division opponents, off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more are 30-8 L/28 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Suns to cover

 The Thunder looked a little tired during their recent  5 game road trip, losing 3 of those games. However,  now home andwith a couple of days of rest in their own beds, Im betting the Thunder, will be prepared to put forward a top tier effort vs a side they dominated the last time they visited here on Feb 11 th, by a 127-113 count.  OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-15 ATS  after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons

OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-0 ATS  in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, on Tuesday nights are 4-41 L/5 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking at -10.8 .

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

Houston has lost 5 straight games, while Orlando continues to be a force to be reckoned with as they have won 4 of their L/5 and have.been consistently competitive all season long.  ORLANDO is 25-7 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record this season. 

The Orlando Magic have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 74 games (+13.80 Units / 8% ROI)

HOUSTON is 4-16 ATS L/20 in home games after 3 straight losses by 10 points or more. HOUSTON is 8-20 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 32-10 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in a t+5.9 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

We all know that the Magic thrive in defensive type games, but Im betting tonight the run and gun Rockets who rank 11th in pace in the league will force them into a faster paced game, which will result in a combined score that eclispes this offering. Houston allows an average of 113 plus points per game on the season, and Im betting the Magic hitting that plateau while the Rockets chase that same output  here at home tonight . 

ORLANDO is 16-6 OVER in road games after allowing 105 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226.8 ppg scored. ORLANDO iL/59 games  versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%  or worse this season with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 11-3 OVER  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season with a combined average of 239.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.  HOUSTONs L/25 games after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 239 ppg go on the board. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 54-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 222.1 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 55-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 3 straight losses by 10 points or more are 29-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 237.4 ppg scored.

Play over

The Heat are  currently playing a top tier brand of hoops  and deserve respect here as underdogs, and according to my projections could easily be slight favs here vs the Pacers .

The Heat are  a half-game back of the Pacers for the sixth and final playoff spot in the East, and makes for what Im betting will be a hard contested game, that favors the more physical and defensive minded Heat. 

MIAMI is 17-7 ATS  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Carlisle is 46-69 ATS  in home games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached since 1996.

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

Saturday marks the conclusion of the two-game season series between the teams. The Lakers beat Cleveland 121-115 back on Nov. 25.Note:CLEVELAND is 14-5 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. It must be noted that the key LAL cogs James and Anthony are banged up and less than 100% and if they play will be on limited minutes. As far as seeding goes James has said hes not worried about seeding so its obvious he wont push himself here to over extend his body as the playoffs approach. Advantage to Cleveland getting points.

CLEVELAND is 13-2 ATS   off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out.

LA LAKERS are 3-13 ATS  off a road win this season.Ham is 9-27 ATS  off a road win as the coach of LA LAKERS.

Cleveland to cover

The Timberwolves are playing their fourth game in six days and are on tired legs entering this tilt at Phoenix.Phoenix's Big Three of Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal Im betting will be to much for the Wolves to compete with from a offensive standpoint., especially considering the Wolves are without  the often injured Towns.  These teams could meet in the play offs , and home court advantage will be key. NBA Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games 7-26 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. ( Minn beat Toronto 133- 85 last time out- while, the Suns offense exploded for two plus 120 points out wins vs the Pelicans and Cavs. 

Suns are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

Play on Suns to cover 

Julius Randle's season is over, as he will undergo surgery to repair a torn labrum, and this has to be disheartening to this Knicks  team. Another key NYK asset Anunoby is currently out with elbow bursitis.Considering the Knicks are running a short rotation, and accumulating alot of minutes, exhaustion maybe starting to set in as is evident by having lost three straight games previous to beating up on another tired group in the Sacramento Kings. Im betting the Chicago takes advantage of out of gas Knicks  group and grabs the victory. 

NBA Home favorites (CHICAGO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 36-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 41-7 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Bulls to win /cover

When these teams met back on Dec 20th in Sacramento the Celtics ran over their hosts by a 144-119 count and very much looked like the superior side, and Im betting nothing changes tonight here in Boston, After manhandling a very good Oklahoma City side, last time out, winning by a 135-100 count its obvious to me the Celtics mean business down the stretch drive here entering the play offs and will prepared to send another message tonight. Boston is 5-0 ATS/SU L/5 in this series. 

Play on the Celtics to cover

From a SRS perspective we are getting value with the home dog tonight LA Clippers. The defending NBA champs demand respect, but this line is a little bloated according both my projections and the SRS data. The Clippers rank7th in the NBA in SRS with a 3.38. rating while the Nuggets rank 4th with a 4.83. Taking into consideration home court advantage we have close a 2 point advantage on the line with the home side.

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Note: The Clippers won the last meeting here at home  111-102 back on Dec 6th of this season. 

DENVER is 15-27 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.

Injury notes: Jokic and Murray are less than 100% , and may or may not play and if they do should see limited/restricted minutes/ action. 

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 64-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover

The Hawks despite of losing their top scoring star Trey Young to injury have been playing inspired hoops of late, and must not be underestimated in their ability to compete here tonight vs the Mavericks. The Hawks have won 6 of their L/7 and deserve respect here in this current form as DD dogs. Note:Atlanta has played the Mavs tough in their 3 most recent meetings winning two of 3 with the loss coming earlier this season in a 148-143 home defeat. 

NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (ATLANTA) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 69-30 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

According to my projections the current totals offering is of by close to 2 possession which favors an over bet between the visiting 76ers and their hosts the Heat. Even the slightest edge will end up being a long term profitable approach to betting the NBA .

I know both sides run at a slower pace, but in what the linesmakers are expecting a close competitive game eclipsing the total is a viable opportunity as my projections estimate both sides will score +107 points.

The 76ers defensive rating registers at  115.2 (12th of 30) Net Rtg: +2.3 (14th of 30)

The Heats defensive rating registers at :112.8 (6th of 30) Net Rtg: +1.5 (16th of 30)

PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 OVER   when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.

Spoelstra is 82-59 OVER  in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 as the coach of MIAMI with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 60-27 OVER L/5 seasons with the combined average of 233.8 ppg scored over the 87 game  sample.

Play over

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (NEW YORK) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 10 points or more are 47-26 OVER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Brooklyn just got clobbered by Indiana 133-111 when they met a couple days ago and Im betting on a rinse and repeat performance from the Pacers tonight. Note: NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BROOKLYN) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 11-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -10.9 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

INDIANA is 8-1 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons and hav covered their L/4 meetings on the road in BROOKLYN. 

Play on Indiana to cover

Dallas enters this game having won 7 straight while their hosts the Golden State Warriors have won 4 straight. With home court advantage and revenge on board for a earlier loss this season to the Mavs  Im recommending we back the experienced veteran laden Warriors. GOLDEN STATE is 31-13 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI) The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 67 games (-34.40 Units / -24% ROI)

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, on Tuesday nights are 4-41 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Warriors to cover

***The Bulls are in ninth place vs the Hawks and are 10th in the Eastern Conference, and the two l will probably play in the opener of the play-in tournament. However, the  No. 9 team will host the game, in which the loser is eliminated making this a important game for both sides. Home court is huge here according to my projections as neutral court is a essentially a pickem according to SRS numbers. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

Atlanta had a 4 game win streak end on Saturday vs the Bucks, and in the past have not been a great bounce back team, especially after a home game as is evident by the following trends:  Atlanta is   11-28 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses this season and  11-23 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons. Also ATLANTA is just  3-11 ATS  against Central division opponents this season and considering the Bulls current form that has seen them win 2 of their L/3 against top tier opponents Indiana and Minnesota, Im betting home side is in a viable enough groove to grab the victroy here as short home favs. Chicago is 4-1 SU/ATS L/5 at home in this series.

Play on Chicago Bulls to cover

 The Nuggets look exhausted lately, as was obvious in recent losses to Minnesota and Phoenix and will probably rest Murray tonight in this tilt vs the Cavs as the play offs approach. There is definite value here taking the Cavaliers in this spot play situation. CLEVELAND is 14-6 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more  of their shots this season. 

Play on 
Cleveland to cover 

Two straight ugly efforts against the Atlanta Hawks and now the Celtics  try to avoid their first three-game losing streak of 2023-24 when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday.  Im betting even if the Bean-town crew get the W,  that their  tired legs now playing their their 5th straight road game wont easily get what they want and that they fail to cover vs a undervalued Pelicans side playing at home.  Its obvious to me that the Celtics are  having some regressionary  algorithmic down time after a strong run that saw them win 9 straight games.  Pelicans are  7-0 ATS  L7 vs .700 or better  opposition.NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS  against Atlantic division opponents this season.

Play on Pelicans to cover

The Magic have uncharacteristically lost two straight games at home (24-11 SU/ATS as hosts) , but Im betting on them having a bounce back effort today vs the visiting Clippers who are off a hard fought 108-107 win vs the Sixers last time out March 27th, in what was their 4th straight time failing to cover  and are just  11-12 with a -2.6 net rating since early Feb.   With this also being the Clippers 3rd straight road game tired legs could make them vulnerable to the leagues best home team ATS with a +6.9 home net rating which ranks them  seventh in the NBA.

LA CLIPPERS are 6-16 ATS  off a road win this season.LA CLIPPERS are 4-13 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season Orlando 10-1  ATS on Fridays vs non-conference opposition. 

Play on Orlando to cover

Saints were smashed by the Bucks earlier this season 141-117 and now have payback on their agenda. After playing a hard fought game the day before yesterday vs the Lakers in a OT loss the Bucks will be vulnerable to a letdown performance vs a very motivated and talented group.Note: Bucks are  0-5 ATS away in 1/1 rest sit vs non-conf opposition.

NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.

MILWAUKEE is 19-33 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.

Play on New Orleans 

Boston was upset last time out by a 120-118 score by this same Atlanta squad, and now redemption is at hand. Im betting on a merciless effort here from the Celtics and for the Hawks to have to open up with some offensive foireworsk of their own in chase mode which Im projecting will help easily eclipse this total.

BOSTON L/28 revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons has een a combined average of 233.4 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 11-1 OVER  in home games versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 253.6 ppg scored. 

ATLANTA is 10-1 OVER  in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 252.5 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 67-29 OVER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

The Nuggets have revenge on board for a loss to the Suns 117-107 here at home the last time they played and now the defending champs will be out for redemption and to send a message that they are not to be disrespected. Note: Nuggets are on a 13-1 SU as hosts  L/2 campaigns  when seeking same-season double-digit revenge, and in 6 tries only failed to cover once when given the opportunity this season.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 124-76 ATS L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover

Both these teams played last night, but the Kings having rested in their own beds will be fresher. After two straight hard fought games in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City the Mavs will be feeling tired as this game progresses which gives us a edge with the home side. Note: Mavs are  1-7 as dogs in back to back situations. Kings are 4-0 ATS L4 vs Mavs. 

I know Dallas is on a nice run but it must be noted that Mavs HC Kidd is 27-50 ATS  after 3 or more consecutive wins in all games he has coached since 1996 with average ppg diff clicking in at -3.1.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DALLAS) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 26-6 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play on Sacramento Kings to cover

After faltering in their last game against the Minnesota Wolves in a hard fought affair, Im now betting on a big rebound performance against a Heat team that they are in revenge mode against for a loss they suffered  at home by a 114-102  earlier this season. Miami has failed to cover 20 of 32 games at home this season including 3-8 ATS against Western Conference opposition.  Meanwhile, GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 ATS  as a road favorite this season. MIAMI is aslo 8-21 ATS  in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 ATS  in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better this season. Kerr is 87-58 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.

Play on Warriors to cover

The Kings are off a 3 game road trip and in the last game of their trek they upset the Orlando Magic in a physical hard fought game, and now Im betting on a letdown spot here vs the visiting Philadelphia 76ers. It must be noted that despite of playing without Joel Embidd the Sixers have been mostly competitive and should not be underestimated in their ability to compete here tonight. Philadelphia ha won 10 straight games in this series and if they lose this tilt, it wont come without a valiant fight. 

SACRAMENTO is 10-21 ATS  in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 1-11 ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. 

SACRAMENTO is 2-11 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 3-15 ATS in home games off a road win over the last 2 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 19-8 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Brown is 0-9 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of SACRAMENTO.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a close win by 3 points or less are 13-26 L/5 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

Denver has a recent reputation for taking the foot off the gas against teams like the Grizzlies, and could easily rest some stars tonight for long stretches of this game, giving us an edge taking DD points with the visitors. 

MEMPHIS is 8-1 ATS  versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season. MEMPHIS is 24-13 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 0-9 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (DENVER) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 8-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis to cover

Boston is surging towards the play offs in top form, but there could be a problem here , as they are also not pacing themselves, and with this being their 9th road game in their L/11 trips to the hardwood, and their 3rd road game in their L/4 days ,could find themselves vulnerable due to exhaustion. 

BOSTON is 8-19 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days are 3-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Hawks to cover

 The Warriors  are primed for payback against  a team they would love to send a message to before the play offs arrive . This Golden State team has lost both their tilts vs the Wolves at home this season and will be sky high for this tilt.   It must be noted that the Warriors – are  6-1-1 ATS when Minnesota is above .500 in a double revenge situation.   Golden State is also golden  5-0 ATS as a dog when in redemption mode for a same-season double revenge. situation  Minnesota when facing an opponent with same- season double revenge are  1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS vs sides with a .400 or better record. 

GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 ATS  in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 ATS in road games in the second half of the season this season. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons

NBA Road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, off a upset loss as a favorite are 40-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Warriors to cover

The Spurs are on tired legs after playing last night in a lethargic loss to the Memphis Grizzlies and are now vulnerable to being beat up on by a redemption minded Suns side that has fallen asleep at the proverbial wheel in this last two meetings vs the Spurs this season. It must noted that the Suns are  3-0 ATS L/3 times in this series  when  coming into it with Double revenge and are 13-3 ATS vs any side that took them out in 2 consecutive same season tilts. It must also be noted that the Suns  are a money making  23-3 ATS away in SU wins with same- season double revenge. SAN ANTONIO is 13-22 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. PHOENIX is 4-0 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Phoenix Suns to cover

The well rested Lakers have revenge on board for an ugly 128-94 defeat   in Philadelphia  back in November and now Im betting on a big time redemption situation to unfold here in LA LA land tonight. Super stars like James and Davis don't take kindly to be embarrassed like that , with both expected to play tonight vs  76ers side that struggles on alot of nights without their injured   super star Joel  Embid in the lineup. note: Series host is 5-0 ATS L/5. 

PHILADELPHIA is 6-14 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.8. 

Play on Lakers to cover

The Nuggets enter this game ready for redemption for a  122-84 loss in New York in January and Im now betting q conclusive DD winning effort here tonight. Note: NBA Favorites (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog are 73-37 ATS L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Also Malone is 27-14 ATS  in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the coach of DENVER with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.8. 

Play on Denver to cover

The last time these teams played back in January the Celtics went into Milwaukee after playing the Minnesota Wolves the night before and were  smashed in a DD beatdown (135-102). Now in revenge mode Im betting the Celtics to get even here plus some . Note: The Celtics are 3-0 ATS L/3 with revenge in this series from a 25 or more point loss. Also the Bucks have failed to cover 8 of their L/9 going against a side with revenge form a 30 or more point loss.

BOSTON is 26-14 ATS (when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at just under 9 ppg.

NBA Home teams (BOSTON) - after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 33-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Dallas is off a upset win vs the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night and have back to back games against the Utah Jazz after tonights game vs the Spurs. The Mavs have already defeated the Spurs three times this season, with the last two coming by big  DD margins. But because of how easily the Mavs handled the Spurs Im betting they will in some ways be overlooking tonights opponents which leave them vulnerable especially considering they could easily be in a letdown spot after the above mentioned victory vs the top tier Nuggets.DALLAS is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. DALLAS is 0-9 ATS  after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 9-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover

Philadelphia is in complete disarray and are now 10-22 without their super star Joel Embiid out the lineup this season, which includes dropping five of the last seven overall. Their offensive production has also fallen off a cliff as they have averaged just 93.4 ppg in their last 5 trips to the court. I know Miami is off a game last night, but are a well conditioned side. Note: Miami is 48-32 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +0.1. I know some key cogs will also be out of the Heats lineup , but the remaining depth is a very physical group that Im betting the light weight Sixers lineup will have problems dealing with. From a coach perspective Nurse is 1-10  in home games versus  defenses - allowing shooting pct defense 46% or worse  - 2nd half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. PHILADELPHIA is also just  2-10 ATS  in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

Boston continues to gain momentum as the playoffs approach and have won 4 straight by DDS, while Washington is in tank mode as is evident by having lost their L/3 by DD deficits. Today Im expecting this trend to continue and for the Celtics to roll past the Wizards. 

Note: Boston: 9-1 ATS L/10  in 2/0 rest situation with the Washington Wizards are  0-7 ATS L/7  in 0/2 rest situation.

WASHINGTON is 8-17 ATS  as a home underdog this season with the average -11.8 ppg diff.

Mazzulla is 21-6 ATS   versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or better  - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.9. 

Play on Boston to cover 

Bucks have revenge on board for a 114-106 loss back in Feb on the road vs the these same Suns.  With Giannis Antetokounmpo likely to play this TV game the Bucks are the right side.    LATE STEAM

The Wolves are well rested with 3 days off coming into this game, while /Utah played last night and will be on tired legs. Note: The Wolves are 7-1 ATS L/8 on  3 days rest and  11-2 ATS  away vs an unrested div opponent . Meanwhile  Utah: 0-4-1  ATS L/5 vs an  opponent  with 3 days rest.UTAH is 3-12 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.8 . NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - sub par pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, second half of the season are 35-76 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover

The Suns are pretty well at full strength, with all their key cogs in the lineup. Meanwhile, Charlotte  a side that has been banged up for most of the season, and just 9-23 SU at home this year are fade material here according to my projections. In their only meeting this season, the Suns took out the Hornets by a 133-19 count, and won both contests vs Charlotte last season by DDs and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today. Note: CHARLOTTE is 6-14 ATS   revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.7 ppg. 

The Suns played last night in a DD loss to the Celtics and will be out looking for redemption . Note: Pho: 7-1 away with no rest vs non-conference opposition. Meanwhile, Charlotte 1-9 ATS  home in 1/0 rest situation.

One of these teams (Suns) is picking up momentum as the post season nears closer, while the other side should continue their decent into tank mode . 

NBA opening line Favorites of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG diff.) after 42+ games are 67-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phoenix to cover

 The last time these teams met the  Mavs smashed the Thunder by a 146-111 count as hosts  and now with revenge on board Im betting the home side will be primed for pay back and even if they have a substantial lead will not take their foot off  proverbial pedal. In response the explosive Mavs will have to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court, which will lead to a fairly high scoring game. I know Mavs super star Doncic may. not play , but the Mavs still have a enough firepower to be fairly competitive and put points on the board in sufficient amounts to get us over the total. Yes, I  am also aware the Mavs  played last night, but it must be noted that the Thunder has gone 8-0 OVER L/8 at home vs unrested conference opposition . Dallas has also gone over in 8 of their L/9 as road dogs with no rest. 

 DALLAS is 7-0 OVER  in road games vs. sub par rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season with a combined average of 246.6 ppg scored.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-1 OVER  versus teams who attempt 39 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 249.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-1 OVER   in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 246.4 ppg scored.

Play over

Cleveland is a little banged up but  their key offensive star Donovan Mitchell is expected to come back into the lineup tonight according to multiple sources.  Even if he cant play this Cleveland team must not be disrespected as underdogs . the Pelicans after a big DD win at Atlanta where they shot 57.3% from the field are in a key regressionary  letdown situation and vulnerable as favs . 

NEW ORLEANS is 1-11 ATS  off a road win by 10 points or more this season.

CLEVELAND is 22-10 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making  36% or  more of their attempts this season

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 25-8 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Milwaukee scored more than 120 points in their L/2 games and my projections estimate another top tier offensive effort tonight in Sacramento. The Bucks rank 6th in the league in pace and 2nd in offensive output and rank 19th in ppg allowed. Meanwhile, Sacramento, ranks 8th in ppg scored and 12rh in pace and 23rd in ppg allowed SACRAMENTO is 11-2 OVER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 243.3 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 19-9 OVER  in home games this season with a combined average of 241.5 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 8-1 OVER  against Central division opponents this season with a combined average of 248.8 ppg scored. 

Bucks are 22-0 OVER L22 vs Sac!  Kings  12-1 OVER at home vs  a .500 or better  non-conf opponent and 19-3 OVER at home in 1/1 rest situation. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better ), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 101-71 L/27 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

My projections estimate both teams will score in the 118 plus range. Note:MILWAUKEE is 27-5 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 252.5 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 26-3 OVER   where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 251 ppg scored. 

Play over

Cleveland played last night, but are a well conditioned team. and more than capable of putting forward a energetic performance.  The Suns have recently not been able to take advantage of these situations as they are just  1-9 away vs unrested non-conference opposition. Phoenix is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games and far from being viable road favs. I know Booker is expected back in the lineup for the Suns and the Cavs are dealing with injuries but the line is still a little bloated according to my projections. 

PHOENIX is 2-10 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season.

PHOENIX is 16-30 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season.

CLEVELAND is 21-10 ATS  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season.

NBA Home teams (CLEVELAND) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 67-31 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Cleveland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Phoenix.

Play on Cleveland to cover

Im betting this Total is has been exaggerated past a threshold of being accurate according to my own projections. I know Charlotte is dealing with a boatload full of injuries and lack flow, but Im betting these two bottom feeders with no post season expectations will play a loose game, that will be higher scoring than the public, sharps and linesmakers expect. Note: The Pistons have allowed an average of 120 ppg at home this season, with the combined average of 232  ppg scored. Charlotte has allowed 118.2 ppg on the road, while scoring 106.1 ppg for a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. When these teams played back on Jan 24th they saw a combined average of 219 points scored and Im expecting a similar output tonight. Clifford in his L/9 versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 120+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of CHARLOTTE has seen a combined average pf 218.4 ppg scored.CHARLOTTE L/12 against Central division opponents this season have seen a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. CHARLOTTE L/30 when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored.

Motwon is off allowing 142 points vs Dallas last time out in a wide open affair- it must be noted that  the DETROIT  Pistons in their L/14 after allowing 135 points or more over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 239.3 ppg go on the scoreboard.DETROIT  in their L/7 at home games versus lower tier teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season have seen a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHARLOTTE) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 daysPlay on the over are 83-47 OVER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DETROIT) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor are 44-22 L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

The aging Lakers after playing 5 of their L/6 games against very strong opponents maybe feeling a little exhausted here as they go against another top tier opponent the Minnesota Wolves. The Lakers have played the Clippers, Nuggets, Thunder , Kings and Bucks recently and Im betting that kind of action will finally catchup to them in this spot play.  MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS  in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Wolves are 4-0 ATS L/4 visits to LA to. play the Lakers and 7-3 SU L/10 meetings overall.

Minny is  4-1  ATS away in 1/1 rest situation. 

Play on Minnesota to cover

The 76ers have revenge on board for a 110-96 defeat  at home to their hosts tonight the NY Knicks a few weeks ago and now will be primed for redemption here this week ,  against a  Philly side  that   4-0 ATS of 3 points or more  in  same- season revenge for a  DD loss,  The Knicks meanwhile have not faired well hat home of late when hosting these types of revenge minded sides going 0-6 ATS L/6 opportunities this season . Also Philadelphia  in this  series with same-season revenge from a loss of 14 or more points, are  6-0 ATS in the visitors role. PHILADELPHIA is also 8-0 ATS  revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite over the last 3 seasons which is the case here today. 

 The 76ers are 6-0 ATS  away in 1/1 rest situation. NYK are  0-7 ATS  in 1/1 rest situation. NEW YORK is 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. NYK is 3-11 ATS L/14 overall. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - off a home win, in March games are 33-67 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cash 

Brooklyn has been highly inconsistent this season, and have hada propensity to overlook opponents. That was obvious last time out vs Detroit, in a loss as favorites. Today I do however, expect the Nets to be ready for some face saving redemption against a Charlotte side they lost a 129-128 decision to back in late November . Note: NBA Road teams (BROOKLYN) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a upset loss as a favorite are 34-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.BROOKLYN is 22-10 ATS  against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons and get the nod to cash here today.

Play on the Nets to cover

The Clippers Im betting will pace themselves here and be a fairly conservative in transition  with another early start on board tomorrow vs the Bucks.This Im betting directly projects to a failrly low scoring game that fails to eclipse this offered number. Add to that the Bulls propensity to play top tier teams with added defensive fervor as is evident by the following trends. CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER   in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 23-9 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored. 

LA CLIPPERS are 9-0 UNDER in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 season with a combined average of 216 ppg scored which was the case last time out vs Houston on the road. The Clippers have also gone under in 18 of 20  in 2/1 rest situation. 

Play on the under

The Bucks  are gaining momentum under new head coach Doc Rivers, but had their  six-game win streak came to an abrupt end on  Wednesday in a ugly 125-90 beat down at  the hands of the  Golden State Warriors. Now in redemption mode Im betting on a huge bounce back performance vs the Lakers this Friday night. 

LA LAKERS are 1-9 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less  turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

MILWAUKEE is 18-8 ATS  as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home underdogs (LA LAKERS) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games are 21-47 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

The Bucks have won their L/2 visits to LA to play the Lakers and the visitor is 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

 The Heat enter this game in top form having won Two straight and 7 of their L/8 and are 18-13 SU on the road this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at plus  1.1. Meanwhile, the Mavs have lost 5 of their L/6 and they are not playing at optimal levels. Kidd is 10-22 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games as the coach of DALLAS. Advantage Miami. 

Note: I know Tyler Herro is out for the Heat, but  Duncan Robinson in his absence has played admirably as he takes advantage of  his extra minutes. 

MIAMI is 33-19 ATS  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. 

DALLAS is 2-10 ATS  in home games in non-conference games this season. 

DALLAS is 8-20 ATS  in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 7-20 ATS  in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 19-32 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 1-9 ATS in home games after allowing 130 points or more over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out vs Indiana. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 255 points or more are 7-26 ATS L/5 seasons L/5 seasons for a  go against 79% conversion rate. 

Play on Miami Heat to cover 

The Lakers are off a huge win vs the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out and will now be in a letdown spot vs visiting Sacramento and vulnerable in this spot.  LA LAKERS are 13-26 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Kings are off a upset loss to the Bulls last time out, but prior to that had defeated the Minnesota Wolves so they were in the same type of situation the Lakers find themselves in today. Its not always easy to come out and play at a top level after exerting alot of energy in your last game against a top tier team. Im now betting a big rebound from the Kings and a regressionary performance from the Lakers giving us value with the underdog to cover.

SACRAMENTO is 32-18 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 12-3 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 19-8 ATS  in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.with the average ppg diff clicking in at +0.4 in those 27 tilts. 

Sacramento has covered 4 of their L/5 visits to LA to play the Lakers. 

Play on Sacramento to cover

As the post season comes closer the Bucks have toughened up on D, and are playing a more conservative style of hoops in transition. This has resulted in 10 straight unders with non of those combined scores eclipsing this totals offering. It must also be noted that the Bucks have seen their L/10  non -conference road games stay on the low side of the number. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors have seen their L/7 games stay low, and 12 of their L/14 stay under the linesmakers total projections. Considering both teams current form and game plan tendencies a under wager he is a viable wagering opportunity. 

NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 136-92 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under

The Magic played last night in a complete game DD victory vs Charlotte , but did not exert alot of effort to dispose of their opponents, and will have enough left in the tank vs a tanking Washington side that has lost 15 straight games and 5 of their L/7 by DD deficits. The Magic have defeated the Wizards 5 straight times with 4 of the wins coming by 8 ore more points. Rinse and repeat projected situation in play here tonight with the road fav.  ORLANDO is 11-3 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS   in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Magic to cover

Floor General and  All-Star guard Jalen Brunson is questionable tonight and if he does play will be less than 100% which will effect the Knicks effectiveness on offense. Meanwhile, the Hawks, will be without their top scorer Trey Young and this will effect their output as well. It must be noted that the Knicks rank 30th in pace and 3rd ranked D ppg,  in the league and will be even more focused on ball control and clock management in transition with Julius Randle also out for the Knicks. Everything points to this being a lower scoring affair. 

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta. NYK has gone under in 11 of their L/12 vs .500 or less opposition. 

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games on the road.

Play under

Boston enters this game on fire with a 11 game win streak, but tonight Im betting they will have their hands full with this young under rated Cleveland Cavs group, even without their top scorer  Donavan Mitchell on the floor. I know Boston has already beaten the Cavs twice this season, but it must be noted Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in this series with same season double revenge on board. NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game, on Tuesday nights are 26-55 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Cleveland is 3-1 SU L/4 at home in this series.

Play on the Cavaliers to cover

The Lakers have played the Thunder tough lately winning the last two meetings this season, and will be primed for a big time effort here at home after blowing their last chance to take down a . Western Conference power Denver. Meanwhile, the Thunder enter off a 118-110 road victory against the Phoenix Suns on Sunday and are on tired legs and vulnerable here in this spot play situation.

LA LAKERS are 17-6 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or more ) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 52-26 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Lakers to cover

My projections estimate a combined score in the low 230s giving us at least a 2 possession edge. 

The Bulls are 8-0-1 L9 vs Pacific Division opposition  and are 11-3 OVER  L14 non-conf road games..T he total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road.

Sacramento ranks 22nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and rank 8th in ppg scored.

SACRAMENTO is 8-0 OVER against Central division opponents this season with a combined average of 252.1 ppg scored. 

SACRAMENTO is 12-4 OVER  in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better  this season.

SACRAMENTO is 16-6 OVER  as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 243.4 ppg scored.

Sacramento is  10-0 OVER as favs 4  or more  pts  playing with  2 days rest and  12-2 OVER L14 non-conference home tilts. 

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games at home

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - in non-conference games, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 176-108 OVER L/27 seasons  for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games are 310-124 OVER L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate.

Play over

The Two sides the visiting Bulls and their hosts the Kings will be  trying to avoid play-in status in the upcoming  NBA playoffs. Knowing the importance of this tilt for both teams, Im expecting a hard fought closely contested tilt with the points proving to be golden in my humble betting opinion. 

CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. CHICAGO is 9-0 ATS   off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival over the last 2 seasons.( Lost to Milwaukee last time out by DDs on the road)

SACRAMENTO is 7-21 ATS  in home games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. Brown is 1-16 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games as the coach of SACRAMENTO.

 NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more are 19-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover

The Clippers played last night in Minnesota and came out of the game with a one point win in a grinding  low scoring affair . I know the Bucks are well rested, but from a matchup perspective Clippers matchup well vs a talented but slower Bucks group, with their super star   Antetokounmpo playing at less than 100% or not at all Im betting will not be able to run and gun their way from a top tier Clippers side, that 

LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS  in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. 

MILWAUKEE is 25-35 ATS  in all games this season.

LA CLIPPERS is 2-0 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons in Wisconsin. 

Lue is 29-15 ATS  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season as the coach of LA CLIPPERS.

Play on LA Clippers to cover

Minnesota played in a low scoring grinding affair against the Clippers last night and will be ready to run and gun tonight in redemption mode after a 1 point loss. The Blazers will have no choice but to try to produce some offensive fiore works of their own or be blown of the court. This scenario Im betting favors a much higher scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MINNESOTA) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days against opponent extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days are 36-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.\

Play over 

Phoenix will be playing back to back games in this tilt vs well rested Oklahoma City, but this is a very well conditioned Suns group that deserves respect in this spot play  according to my projections . The Suns Im betting will be very motivated to perform in revenge mode for a loss they suffered to the Thunder here at home earlier this season.

Phoenix is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City. Phoenix is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home. 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 21-4 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors which obviously qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on the Suns to cover

Two teams that rate as being at  the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, have the home side being over valued here according to my projections. We know key cog Joel Embiid  for Philly is out, but the Sixers have still shown they can compete as was evident when they went in to Cleveland last week and pulled off the SU victory as underdogs. Meanwhile, Dallas has shown a propensity to play lackluster basketball at times this season, and are currently struggling as they enter this tilt having lost 3 of their l/4. The Mavs has also performed poorly at home vs non conference opposition from the all important ATS view point as they are just 3-22 ATS . ( My take is they are constantly being over rated by the linesmakers in the role of hosts  and the Mavs as a team are not performing at optimal levels for whatever reason.) With that said, Ill grab the points here with the under valued  underdog vs the over hyped fav)

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover

Atlanta is a very inconsistent side, despite of their decent talent.  They dont regularly take care of business vs lesser teams, and dont back bounce well off losses especially on the road. Note: Atlanta just got blasted by this same Brooklyn side, by a 124-97 count, a couple of days ago and despite of looking redemption just have not shown that zest for bounce bakc revenge performances. 

ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS  off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.

ATLANTA is 2-14 ATS  when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. ATLANTA is 7-16 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

BROOKLYN is 11-3 ATS  as a home favorite this season. BROOKLYN is 21-10 ATS  against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Brooklyn to cover

The Wizards have lost 13 straight after last nights OT loss to the Lakers. Only 3 of the losses during this ugly run have come by more than this point spread offering. Meanwhile, the Clippers have cooled off since the all star break, and have lost 6 of their L/9 overall while failing to cover 7 of those games. I know the Wizards played last night, but they are still in LA and have had sufficient time to rest up today in preparation for this tilt vs the Clippers. Nothing has come easily for the Clippers lately, and Im betting that will hold true vs a side that has nothing to loose and operating without pressure. The Wizards are 9-0 ATS L/9 playing back to back games.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (LA CLIPPERS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% OR BETTER ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% OR BETTER ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (-5.5 OR LESS reb/game) are 15-45 ATS L/27 seasons for a  go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

Denver beat up on Sacramento last night by DDs in a revenge situation and Im betting are now on tired legs, which  will see them be in a letdown situation here both mentally and physically. Meanwhile, the visiting Heat are currently playing a top tier brand of basketball as they have won 5 straight and 7 of their L/8 overall and deserve respect as under dogs in spot play situation. Note:Denver with no rest is   0-7 ATS  L/7 when coming off a game in which they were playing with revenge .

Play on Miami Heat to cover

My projected Total projects a combined score in the mid 230s giving us at least a 1 to 2 possession edge on this offering. 

After playing last night in a grueling and disappointing 121-119 loss to Cleveland Im betting on the Mavs being more conservative in their approach to this game and will focus on good technical play in transition especially on defense. Dallas has gone under in 4 straight tilts, entering last nights game in Cleveland , while the Raptors have gone under in 5 of their L/7 overall, and 18 of their 28 games at home this season.The last two meetings here in Toronto have gone under the total. 

DALLAS is 11-2 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. DALLAS is 20-7 UNDER after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. 

TORONTO is 11-3 UNDER in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better  of their attempts this season with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored. TORONTO is 16-5 UNDER in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game this season with a combined average of 225.2 ppg scored. TORONTO is 8-1 UNDER  in home games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 214.9 ppg scored.

 NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 47-18 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Milwaukee has gone under in 6 straight games. Charlotte has gone under in 5 straight games thanks to both sides playing strong defensive ball.  The hornets have not allowed 3 of their last 4 opponents to to breach the 99 point plateau. Meanwhile, the Bucks have not allowed 3 of their L/6 opponents to eclipse the 98 point plateau. 

Charlotte has gone under in 4 straight vs .600 or better opposition and have gone under in 7 of their L/8 conference road games.

CHARLOTTE is 10-1 UNDER  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg going on the board. CHARLOTTE is 21-7 UNDER  versus good 3 point shooting teams - making  36% or better  of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.7 ppg scored.  CHARLOTTE is 9-1 UNDER when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored. CHARLOTTE is 8-0 UNDER after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg scored. CHARLOTTE is 16-4 UNDER  after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored.

Milwaukee has gone under in 6 straight as non division favorites and have gone under in 7 of their L/8 vs Charlotte and have gone under in 4 of their L/5 vs .333 or less opposition. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 34-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHARLOTTE) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more are 66-25 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

According to my projections the linesmakers have over shot this total by ate least 2 possessions. My number sits closer to 239-240 - which gives us a significant edge to the under. Raptors games have averaged a combined  231.6 ppg. Pacers tilts have averaged  246 combined points per game. 

Carlisle in 54 games  as a home favorite as the coach of INDIANA has seen a combined average of 235.1 ppg scored. Indiana has gone under in 3 of their L/4 at home. 

Rajakovic in 14  road games where the total is greater than or equal to 230 as the coach of TORONTO has seen a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. Toronto has gone under in 5 of their L/6 overall. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in February games.NBA are 35-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (TORONTO) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 48-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored.

Play under

 Denver has taken all three meetings so far this season vs the Warriors, but you can bet Steve Kerr and company will be prepared to get some redemption here this evening at home  in an effort to save face. Considering the Warriors are finally starting to play a top tier of hoops as is evident by winning 8 of their L/9 overall it will br an easy decision here to back the hosts in revenge mode. Note: NBA Road teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite are just 4-28 L/27 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors.

GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 ATS  versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season.GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season.

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover

Cleveland was upset vs short handed Philly last time out as favs . They looked pretty tired in that tilt, and now with this being their 3rd game in 4 nights will not be in any condition to run and gun vs the Wizards. Thats not part of the Cavs Modus operandi any way. Note:
CLEVELAND is 14-3 UNDER   off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  208.9 ppg scored.  With that said, Im betting on a concerted effort to get back to playing their usual brand of top tier defense that is ranked 2nd in ppg allowed and D efficiency, behind the 22nd ranked pace in the league . This Im betting will help keep this tilt below of the offered Totals number. Note: Cleveland has gone under 5 straight in a non division game.

CLEVELAND is 7-0 UNDER  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 15-4 UNDER  versus sub par teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score of 212.8 ppg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 21-6 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored.

Washington has gone under in 9 straight games as a 13 or less point dog in a conference tilt. The Wizards have gone under in 4 straight at home vs .650 or better opposition. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (WASHINGTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days against opponent extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 105-64 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 49-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

My own projections estimate a total in the mid 230s range giving us a 2 plus possession edge to the under on this offered  Total. 

Daigneault  in 8  home games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY has seen a combined average of 235.1 ppg scored.  Oklahoma City in 27  home games this season has seen a combined average of 235.9 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is   in 17 home games versus sub par teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 229.1 ppg scored.

WASHINGTON is 8-1 UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 227.2 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 48-15 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 23-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with a combined average of 226.7 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 60-28 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.6 ppg scored.

Play on the under

Boston beat up on the Bulls when they played in Boston in late November and now the Bulls have revenge on board and Im betting they will be alot more competitive in the rematch. Chicago has shown steady improvement behind the top tier  play  of DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic  and emrging elite   guard Coby White, who is averaging 24.2 points per game and shooting 44.7 percent from deep in February. 

Chicago is 2-1 SU/ATS L/3 at home vs the Celtics. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston. 

CHICAGO is 24-11 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons

BOSTON is 8-18 ATS   in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff clicking in at +1.3. 

Boston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games.

NBA  team vs the money line (BOSTON) - off a blowout win by 30 points or more over a division rival, in February games are 8-22 L/27 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -4.2 which qualifies  on this ATS offering. 

Play on Chicago to cover

Coming out of the all star break Im betting these teams will not be as cohesive offensively as the line makers are expecting. Note: After being designated  as the unofficial host of All-Star weekend, Indiana Pacers star guard Tyrese Haliburton could easily find himself exhausted in this spot. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 23-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with a combined average of 226.7 ppg going on board.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 60-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DETROIT) - sub par team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less 34-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 226 ppg scored. 

Play under 

 The Bucks have not played at a top level of late as  their big star Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing at less than 100% with nagging injuries as is Damian Lilliard . The bucks also remain without the services  Middleton who is sidelined. Milwaukee is just 3-6 SU/ATS  L/10 and have in the recent past had a tendency to not play hard against lower tier sides like the Memphis Grizzlies as is evident by a  5-17 ATS recored when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Meanwhile , MEMPHIS is 19-8 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons and are  30-15 ATS  in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - off a home loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a home win are just 9-29 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. ( Bucks lost 123-97 to Miami last time out while the Grizz beat Houston by a 121-113 count.)

Memphis has won and covered their L/2 meetings at home vs Milwaukee and have covered 6 of the L/7 meetings in this series.

Play on Memphis to cover

Play on Memphis to cover

Sacramento played a grueling game in Phoenix last night losing by a 130-125 count  and now play a back to back games in the thin air of the Mile High City which is never a good situation. The combination of these high altitudes and the physical and emotional letdown scenario make the Denver Nuggets a viable option tonight laying lumber. It must also be noted that the Nuggets have the added motivation of  redemption and revenge on their minds for a loss they suffered to these same Kings  a few days ago by a ugly 136-105 count.  Note: Denver is 6-0 ATS L/6  as hosts vs unrested opposition .

DENVER is 23-11 ATS   when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 19-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

The Kings have lost three of their past four overall to fall a half-game behind the Suns in the Pacific and will now be very motivated for a bounce back effort vs a side that they have covered against in 5 straight meetings . Note: The Suns have failed to cover 5 straight at home vs .500 or better opposition. 

Phoenix won the last meeting here back in mid January by a 119-117 count and Im betting on another close game here with the points in my humble opinion being golden.

SACRAMENTO is 21-9 ATS  in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 13-4 ATS in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

SACRAMENTO is 12-2 ATS  vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 20-9 ATS  in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 13-4 ATS  in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

PHOENIX is 4-13 ATS versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more  this season.PHOENIX is 5-13 ATS  versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

The Nuggets have a few days rest under their belts and will the have the legs to be physical in transition here v vs the Bucks. Meanwhile, with the Bucks big three of Middleton, Lilliard , and  Antetokounmpo banged up with various injuries and playing at less than 100% Im betting on a lower scoring affair. Note: The Bucks last 3 home tilts vs the Nuggets have stayed on the low side of the total. 

Denver ranks 6th in the NBA in ppg allowed, and just 18th in ppg on offense.

DENVER is 12-2 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored.. DENVER is 15-7 UNDER  in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored. Nuggets have gone under in 9 of their L/11 overall. – The Nuggets have gone under in 6 straight non-conference away tilts  and have gone under in 5 straight  vs . .600  or better opposition. 

MILWAUKEE is 27-14 UNDER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.Only 1 of the Bucks last 8 games has eclipsed the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 31-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Pelicans Zion Williamson will possibly miss this game or will play at less than 100% which should be a detriment to the New Orleans offense and with this being the Pelicans 4th straight road game the Bayou crew should be on tired legs and far from ready to run and gun. Meanwhile. Memphis continues to be ravaged by injuries, and have now lost 8 straight and struggle on most nights to put points on the board. With that said, Im betting this total will not be eclipsed. 

 MEMPHIS is 7-0 UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored.

NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored. 

Note: Pelicans took a 93-84 decision at Portland last time out. Which sets in motion this key long term  league wide trend. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 37-5 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 215.1 ppg. 

Play Under

The Nuggets have a few days rest under their belts and will the have the legs to be physical in transition here v vs the Bucks and control their top tier opponents . Meanwhile, with the Bucks big three of Middleton(out), Lilliard , and  Antetokounmpo banged up with various injuries and playing at less than 100% Im betting the Nuggets have the edge.

MILWAUKEE is 2-11 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 7-21 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Denver is 2-0 ATS L/2 vs Milwaukee as visitors. 

NBA Home underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 25-40 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver 

My projections estimate a combined score in the low to mid 230s giving us close 2 plus possession edge on the offered Total.

SACRAMENTO is 24-8 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 26-10 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons are 26-10 UNDER for a combined average of 231.3 ppg.  SACRAMENTO is 18-6 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 255 points or more are 36-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (118 or more PPG) are 36-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Cleveland enters this game on a 8 game win streak behind a stingy D, that ranks 2nd in ppg allowed and 2nd in defensive rating. They go against a Raptors side playing back to back games after squeezing out a hard fought victory vs the Houston rockets last night. Considering the visiting  Cavaliers have redemption on their plate tonight for a loss they suffered on New Years day here in Toronto by a 124-121 count Im betting on a full court start to finish effort from the Cavs vs an exhausted side, playing for the 5th time in 7 days and off playing last night as mentioned above. 

CLEVELAND is 11-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a sub par team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-57 L/27 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland Cavaliers to covers 

The Pelicans enter this  game ranked 9th in ppg allowed this season and 8th in defensive rating  and 17th in pace, while ranking 13thin offense. The Cajun birds   counter parts and hosts  tonight the Lakers rank 14th in offense ppg, and 20th in offensive rating, while ranking 6th in pace, which tells me that their not producing according to their tempo which bodes well here for a under bet cashing as my  projections estimate a combined score that does not beach the 231 point plateau giving us a one possession edge. 

Also the Lakers played last night so that high end pace could also slow significantly . Note: the Pelicans have gone under 7 straight times in  away tilts vs unrested conf opposition. Lakers have gone under at  home 7 of the L/8 times on back to back games and have gone under  in 6 of their L/6 at  home against the Pelicans. 

NEW ORLEANS is 10-1 UNDER L/11 in road games after 2 straight games committing 7+ less turnovers than opponents which is the case entering this game. /the average combined ppg in these tilts rings in. at 190.8 ppg scored.

NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 UNDER  after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226 ppg scored. 

NEW ORLEANS is 16-4 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or better assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored.NEW ORLEANS is 33-16 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.7 ppg scored. 

LA LAKERS are 10-2 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season with a combined average of 225.3 ppg scored.

LA LAKERS are 10-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 227.1  ppg scored. 

Play under

New York may be without star guard Jalen Brunson (ankle) and if he does play will be less than 100%. Meanwhile, Julius Randle (shoulder), OG Anunoby (elbow) and Quentin Grimes (knee) will sit out. This Im betting forces the Knicks to be more defensive minded in transition and  to slow play down. Also on the flip-side visiting Dallas will see super star Doncic play with a face guard on because of a broken nose, and this could easily play havoc with his offensive production . I know these teams played a high scoring affair, last time they played with Dallas taking a 128-124 count but it must be noted that   NEW YORK is 7-0 UNDER in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 213.2  ppg scored. Thibodeau is 35-14 UNDER  in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent as the coach of NEW YORK with a combined average of 208.9 ppg scored in those 49 games.

DALLAS is 27-14 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 22-12 UNDER  sub standard defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season with a combined average of 223.5 ppg scored. 

NYK has gone under in  L7 home games  vs Dallas.

Play on the under

Miami played instate Orlando last night in a win and will now be on tired legs in a back to back situation that has also seen them play 3 games in 4 nights . Now against a  hard working group of Spurs lead by first year  phenom  Victor Wembanyama that have covered 12 of their L/18 overal the Heat will Im betting not have enough gas to get the cover here in this spot play l. 

 aNote: MIAMI is 0-7 ATS  when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season.The /series visitor is 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series and the Heat are 1-10 ATS L/11 playing at home with no rest. 

MIAMI is 4-17 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a home win, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 37-63 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Antonio to cover

Utah has had a viable season, and have proven themselves over and over again, and against quality sides like the Thunder they almost always seem to bring their A game  to the court , as is evident by the following trends. UTAH is 10-2 ATS  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. UTAH is 22-8 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. Yes, I know that they have lost both games to Oklahoma City this season, but now with added motivation of double revenge Im betting that the magic of three will pay off for them tonight. In the recent past the Jazz have been strong bets in revenge mode, as is once again evident by the following trends. UTAH is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season  is 12-2 ATS  in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season. The Jazz have not been covering with consistency of late, losing 3 straight before a cover in a win last time out, but in past this has been a good omen for their betting backers as UTAH is 18-3 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 135 points or more are 46-14 ATS L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Utah to cover

The Magic travel into Miami a winner in three straight and in four of the last five, while their hosts have 2 of 3 after a long drought.  The Magic took the most recent matchup on Jan. 21, grabbing 105-87 victory after the Heat won the Jan. 12 contest 99-96 and the Dec. 20 meeting 115-106. Im now betting on the hungry Heat to come out of this with a win in a cover at home where they have won the last 5 meetings against this sunshine state rivals. 

NBA Home favorites (MIAMI) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 32-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  Road underdogs vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, on Tuesday nights are just 4-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

MIAMI is 5-0 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Miami to cover

The 76ers played a lazy brand of D in their L/ game vs the Brooklyn Nets losing by a 136-121 count as home favs . HC Nurse was not happy with his teams Defensive efforts,. note:Nurse is 12-1 UNDER  in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 215.8 ppg scored. Also from my perspective it was the Sixers first game back home after a grueling 5 game road trip out west and they were jet lagged. Now rested after sleeping on their own beds  I expect tonights host to come out here with alot more fire especially in defensive  transition, and this Im betting helps keep this combined score on the low side of the offering. 

Also lots of key offensive cogs are expected to miss this game for both sides and if they do play see limited action as they are less 100%. 

Doncic for Dallas is questionable and Kyrie Irving is dealing with a thumb sparain and Embiid for 76ers is ruled out. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 255 points or more are 35-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under