SF barley got by both their opponents in the play offs, and despite of the vast array of talent have looked vulnerable of late especially on D, which is not a good omen going against the likes of super star QB Mahomes and company. ( Mahomes is 13-1 ATS L/13 as an underdog in his career )  Also the Chiefs D, has the stopping power to slow down the mighty 49ers offense, and here in the NFL championship game as the old adage goes Defense wins championships. We all know how good SF is behind RB Christian Macaffery but it must be noted that  KANSAS CITY is 10-1 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 7-3 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO since 1992. 

Play on KC to cover-Play as low as a pickem for Chiefs 

SF looked rusty after their lay off vs Green Bay last week, but are by far the superior side here this week according to projections on both sides of the ball. The Lions were great at home this season but no matter where they played their D was inconsistent, especially on the road where they allowed an average of 24.7 ppg . After watching them barely get by the Buccaneers last week, its obvious to me they are in over their heads this week. Hey I love the way the Lions played this season, and how far they have come, but like I said Im betting disappointment awaits them in SF this Sunday. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 23-9 ATS   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

SAN FRANCISCO is 9-0 straight up against DETROIT L/9 at home. 

DETROIT is 9-22 ATS  L/31 in road games against NFC West division opponents. 

Play on the SF 49ers to cover

 Chiefs D, got them into the play offs and after looking dormant for a long time now look to be in top form which is not a good thing for any of their opponents. I know the Baltimore D is top notch but the way Mahomes looked this past week, and how the running game was also in sync it will be hard to bet against him. Also something that is always troubling to me is a team like the Ravens who played all out football all season, without any really struggles. Are they do for a down game? Its not uncommon for teams like this to hit a wall at some point. Whether that is the case or not Im still backing the Chiefs super star QB and probably the best coach in the NFL . Note: HC Reid is 13-4 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY. Reids L/26 as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of KANSAS CITY with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1.

Reid is 22-9 ATS  as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

The Bills and Chiefs battled in a 23-20 decision by the visitors on Dec 10/2023 of this season in Kansas City. Alot of things went wrong for the Chiefs in that game, and some questionable calls by the officials were the icing on the cake . HC Reid and company now have revenge on board, and at this time of year, Ds trump offenses. With that said, entering this game the  Chiefs Defense is operating at high level , allowing an average 15.5 ppg in their L/6 overall and Im betting will be the difference maker in a headline game that has the pundits  focused on the QB matchup of  Allen and Mahomes. 

Reid is 10-1 ATS  in road games revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent as the coach of KANSAS CITY.KANSAS CITY is 21-8 ATS  in road games revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent   . Reid is 21-9 ATS  as a road underdog as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 9 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

 The Buccaneers knocked off the Philadelphia Eagles in convincing fashion on Monday night to advance to the 2nd round and deserve respect here in the underdog role. I know  Detroit took out the Bucs in  Week 6 of this season, by a , 20-6 count but it must be noted that TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points over the last 2 seasons. The way TB QB Baker Mayfield’s played in   their  Wild Card win sets a  positive momentum driver for the Buccaneers and Im betting he goes toe to toe with Lions QB Goff and we get the cover.

TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS in road games this season with 7 of those  covers coming as dogs. TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS  in road games against conference opponents this season.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 19-51 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

The Packers pulled off a huge upset last time out vs Dallas but. now Rookie QB Love and company will go against a well rested SF 49ers side that will be fully ready to make sure the same fate does not hold true for them this week. Note: NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 6-25 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

SAN FRANCISCO is 19-7 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a average ppg diff +12.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering.SAN FRANCISCO is 16-5 ATS vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.5.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

Texas rookie QB  CJ Stroud Im betting will finally have his hands full in the play off game vs a well rested   No. 1 seed. The kid is great, but this is just to huge a step up in class here for him. Baltimore won the first meeting this season against Stroud in company by a 25-9 count  and a repeat performance looks to be in cards here according to my projections. Baltimore has won 7 straight meetings in this series  at home.  BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4. 

Play on Baltimore to cover

Philadelphia's QB Hurts in his L/4 post season games has just  4 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and an 84.7 passer rating and recently he has looked atrocious under center with a 82.7 passer rating. Meanwhile, on the flip-side , Tampa Bays QB Baker Mayfield ,  while not terrific  has been clutch in key situations. I believe the current show down favors Mayfield against a Eagles side that has looked consistently worse and has struggled more and more as this season has progressed. 

I know the Eagles beat the Bucs earlier this season but it must be noted that  NFL home pups  in the Wild Card Round  playing with same-season revenge are 9-1-1 ATS L/11. Wild card underdogs playing as hosts are 14-3 1 ATS L/17 overall. 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, when playing on Monday night are 8-34 L/31 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLHome teams (TAMPA BAY) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record in the second half of the seasons are 28-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover

Bills coach Sean McDermott makes alot of bad decisions in key spots and does not get alot of respect from many NFL pundits. Josh Allan is a top tier QB , but he has been less than explosive this season, and also has a penchant for bad decisions. Meanwhile, HC Mike Tomlin is probably playing for his job and Im betting we see a top tier version of him and his team here . Take the points.

BUFFALO is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS  versus poor rushing defenses - allowing  4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 47-27 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. Tomlin is 23-13 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of PITTSBURGH.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 53-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI) and enter this game with momentum and should not be underestimated in their ability to pull off the SU upset vs a Lions side that has been suspect defensively at times this season. 

McVay is 29-17 ATS  in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 13-5 ATS   vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season as the coach of LA RAMS. Note: Detroit  has not faced a WR duo like this.  Kupp has the second-most receiving yards ever in a season with 1,947 back in 2021, 17 yards behind Lions Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson and Nacua, who broke two records for rookie receivers in 2023. Detroits suspect secondary will be the negative diff maker in this tilt. 

NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams 

An inexperienced QB at the helm of the Packers offense (Love)  makes them vulnerable in this road  play off game vs a seasoned Cowboys QB  Dak Prescott  . Cowboys HC McCarthy is 66-37 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in all games he has coached since 1992.

DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  in home games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons

NFL Underdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed) after 8+ games, after a game where they forced no turnovers are 4-43 L/31 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with a average ppg diff of -10.5 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors with a average ppg diff of -9.4. 

Play on Dallas to cover

The Dolphins were beaten up on by both  Baltimore and Buffalo over their final 2 games and enter this game with a lack of momentum. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have achieved a decent season, thanks to a solid D, instead of what you might think would be their stud QB Mahomes. In a big play off game like this Im betting the Chiefs D, and clutch QB play in a spot light affair will be the difference maker. In other words the Chiefs play off experience will be an important factor as well. Also one last thing the game time temps of this affair are expecting to be in the single digits which does not bode well for a side use to playing football in warmer temps.MIAMI is 0-6 ATS   in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 0-7 ATS   after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS   versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 15-4 ATS   versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

Mahomes is 11-3 SU in the postseason. He has led the Chiefs at least to the AFC title game five years in a row, and appeared  in the Super Bowl three times, and won it twice. He has 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 14 post season tilts. rinse and repeat. 

Play on Chiefs to cover

My projections make this Washington Huskies team an  underdog of closer to a FG in a game Im betting will be much closer than this line suggests. Huskies HC DeBoer is  8-1 ATS as a  pup , including 5-0 SUATS with the Huskies and is also  6-1 SU against  undefeated opposition. Meanwhile, HC Harbaugh owns a  11-21-1 ATS career vs undefeated sides like Washington. Teams like Michigan who defeated a Nick Saban side last time out have failed to cash 11 of their L/14. My own view here is the Michigan wolverines after getting some fortunate calls and a dream play run at the game to tie Alabama could find it hard to get their emotional drive back here . After watching in disbelief Saban allowed Michigan  to take the ball first in OT with momentum   which resulted in a TD. Then on offense the Tides miscues cost them from tying the game.  Now  Im betting the Wolverines  will now be in a huge letdown spot. In my opinion it was Saban that lost that game and gifted it to Michigan.  Hey dont get me wrong the Wolverines are fine team, but Im betting on Huskies super star QB Penix who can make the best of Defenses look bad to step up here and give the edge to the Huskies to cover. note: DeBoer is 11-1 ATS   in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Play on Washington to cover

The Chicago Bears come into this game having won  four of its last five games, with the only l defeat coming by 3 points. I know the Green Bay Packers desperately need a win here to get a wild card spot in the post season,  QB Justin Fields is finally starting to look like a top tier NFL QB and will be  primed to make sure the Bears  dont just lie down and play dead for the Packers.    In his L/9 trips to the gridiron  he has passed for  1,838 yards, 13 TDs, and  uses his legs proficiently rushing  521 rushing yards, This game looks much closer to a pickem according to my projections. Spoiler alert in play here. Oh one last thing I know Green Bay has owned the Bears in the recent past but that was with Aaron Rodgers under center. 

GREEN BAY is 0-6 ATS   after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. 

CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season this season.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (CHICAGO) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 61-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover

The SF 49ers are expected to rest  their key starters here today giving the Rams a rare advantage .  The Rams are running hot having  three straight and six of its past seven games. Considering the The Rams are 9-0 ATS as a division road pup it is not a hard decision to take the points here today. The Rams also have the added motivation of revenge for a loss earlier this season to the 49ers- Note: McVay is 7-0 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent as the coach of LA RAMS. Also the Niners are off a  DD win vs the Washington last week by a 27-10 count which is not necessarily good omen as Shanahan is 1-8 ATS  ) in home games off a double digit road win as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.

NFLHome teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 28-61 L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Blaine Gabbert starts for the Chiefs today. The  last time he started was in 2018  season for the Tennessee Titans. KC cannot do any better than where they are entering the play offs and are not really interested opponents for the Chargers today. There will plenty of Chargers hopefuls that will be primed to play this game considering the Chargers will be over hauled in the off season. Advantage Chargers. KANSAS CITY KC is 0-6 ATS   in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 1-10 ATS   in road games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on the LA Chargers to cover

After having been robbed in the previous game because of suspect officiating the Detroit Lions are in a nasty mood and ready to take their frustrations out this week vs the visiting Minnesota Vikings The Lions  own a 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 record against Vikings and here at home have a been a dominant side, winning five of seven games while scoring 30.6 ppg. Advantage Motown.

DETROIT is 11-1 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.Campbell is 9-0 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of DETROIT.

Play on the Lions to cover

The Ravens enter in this game expected to rest alot of players and the Steelers are in desperation mode as they need to win this game for any chance they have to get into the play offs, and some luck. The Ravens are a deep team and must not underestimated in their abilities to compete here even with some of their key starters on the side lines. It must be  noted that 17 of the previous 31 games in this series have been decided by a field go or less and 24 of those games by one score or less. It must also be noted that the Ravens are  13-1-1 ATS as a home pup in this series when the Steelers own an above .500 record.  BALTIMORE is also 11-2 ATS   as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

 PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFLFavorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 23-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Ravens to cover

Alabama started slowly this year but like a  run away freight train seem unstoppable now. 

The Tide enter this game with some powerful trends on their  side. For example Alabama is  20-3-1 ATS as an underdog against  an undefeated team and the SEC champion team  is  perfect  6-0 ATS in a Bowl game  vs a undefeated side.  On the flipside the wolverines are 0-6 SU/ATS in their L/6 Bowl games.

I know Michigan can run the ball, and have a mobile QB, but Sabans crew owns 30th ranked rush defense in the country allowing just   3.7 YPC and 124.5 YPG. I can see Harbaugh finding the sledding tough in this matchup and thus for us taking the points makes alot of sense. 

ALABAMA is 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play this season.

Harbaugh is 4-12 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of MICHIGAN.

Play on Alabama to cover

The Tennessee Volunteers have alot of talent, but that has not helped all that much this season, as they underperformed as compared to what the pundits though they would achieve. The Vols owned the worst time of possession in all of FCS football, and here against Iowas super staunch D, will be challenged to hold the ball for long here today. What Im betting on is that this disciplined Iowa D, that ranked 5th in not taking penalties this season will life miserable for a mistake prone and undisciplined Vols side that ranked 127 th in penalties this season. I know the Hawkeyes offense has looked stale this season, but it must be noted that TENNESSEE is 5-15 ATS L/20 versus terrible offensive teams - averaging 4.25 or less yards/play. Also Ferentz is 31-18 ATS  when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of IOWA with the average ppg diff clicking in at +4.3 ppg. 

Play on Iowa to cover

Liberty comes into this game undefeated and have out yarded their opposition in every game this season and Im betting if they lose to this powerful Oregon side they wont go into the night easily. After losing the PAC 12 championship to Washington, the Ducks may find themselves in a emotional letdown spot. With RB Bucky Irving opting out and a litany of other key missing parts from the regular season the Ducks are waddling in this tilt vs a formidable opponent.  QB Bo Nix cannot win this game on his own.

Note: Pac 12 Bowlers are 3-26 ATS vs teams coming off a victory like Liberty.  
Liberty 6-0 ATS vs. sides  coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite.

OREGON is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

LIBERTY is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (LIBERTY) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 26-3 ATS L/31 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (LIBERTY) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-3 ATS L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover

QB Jayden Daniels’ will play for LSU today and his name alone has over bloated this line in favor of the underdogs Wisconsin. It must be noted that Heisman Trophy QBS  have lost 20 of 31 games SU vs top tier  defenses that give up 19 PPG or less like the Badgers. I know LSU has flashy explosive offense but Wisconsin has a very tough D, that can slow down the best of attacks. On the flips side Im betting the Badgers can grind their way towards the red zone , and also do some damage to a non existent  LSU red zone D, ranked 113th in the nation. Note:

Brian Kelly is 1-7 ATS as a bowl favorite of 7 or more points while, the Badgers have covered 6 of their L/8 as 6+ point underdogs.

CFB Neutral field favorites (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 9-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WISCONSIN) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 38-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 34-18 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors 

Play on Wisconsin to cover

Las Vegas is off a big win last time out at KC and are 5--1-1 ATS under new interim HC Antonio Pierce . With momentum on their sides going against a Colts side, that is just 1-6 ATS hosting AFC West opposition taking points here with the reborn Raiders looks very much to be. viable betting option. It must also be noted that the visitor in this series is 5-0 ATS L/5 and  Raiders’ interim head coach's  when coming off a victory the last three seasons, are  5-1 ATS as a pups, and 3-0 ATS against opposition like the Colts  coming off a SUATS defeat.

LAS VEGAS is 7-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. (Beat KC last week 20-14)

INDIANAPOLIS is 16-31 ATS  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LAS VEGAS) - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 36-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Las Vegas to cover

 I know the Bucs won last time out as hosts, but that has been a recipe for disaster for their betting backers as they are  0-5-1 ATS at home off a home game. I know QB Baker Mayfield has looked great for the Bucs, but today he goes against a desperate Saints side that needs wins to have the possibility of making the pay offs. Today revenge and desperation trump the Bucs situational algorithms. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent and are 5-0 ATS when they have triple revenge on board. (Saints have lost last three to TB including a game this season)

NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS L/15  in road games vs. struggling  passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games  .

NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 5-25 ATS L/30 seasons for. go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover

Baltimore is off a huge DD road win vs the SF 49ers last time out and will be in natural letdown spot here this Sunday. Note: NFL team (BALTIMORE) - off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more are 13-38 ATS L/10 seasons in their followup tilt. Also BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS  in home games after a win by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and top gun QB Lamar Jackson is 0-3 ATS as a home favorite when coming off a straight up underdog victory. 

Meanwhile, Miami is off a ugly 22-20 win vs Dallas last time out and continue to uptrend in my power rankings. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 97-49 ATS L/30 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

The Fins have also played teams like the Ravens tough recently going  6-0 ATS  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Miami has covered their L/2 vs the Ravens including one here in Maryland and get my backing to cover this week in a key spot play. 

Play on Miami to cover

Dallas' offense has looked a little inconsistent the past two games as  Dak Prescott was limited to 134 passing yards by the Bills , but is more than capable of a bounce back effort here at home.In the team's home games, Prescott has completed 74 % of his passing attempts with 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Rinse and repeat on todays agenda vs visiting Motown. 

Dallas is 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS at home in this last 15 games overall , including a 5-0 ATS  when coming off a loss and are in bounce back mode. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Dallas also matches up well vs a explosive team like the Lions, going   7-0 ATS ( in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons 

Play on Cowboys to cover

Auburn lost  In the Stats battles , in all 7 conference games with a net average of -165 YPG and yet fine d favor with the linesmakers. Needless to say this was not one of better incarnations of the Auburn football program and Im betting they are getting far to much respect here  vs a Maryland side with a top tier QB at the helm of their offense,  ( future NFLer  Taulia Tagovailoa)

Auburn is -1-5 SU ATS L/6 Bowl games and failed to cover 7 of their L/8 against the Big 10.  AUBURN is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog.

Teprs are 5-1 ATS  L/6 non conference tilts. 

MARYLAND is 9-2 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Maryland to cover

Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart can rip apart the best of defenses. Yes, Penn State has a top tier D, but their offense is very inconsistent . Note: Penn States respected defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has left a for a job at Duke, and will not be around to mentor his D today. Edge Ole Miss taking points. 

Big Ten bowl sides like Penn State  have lost 11 of 17 games  and are just  4-13 ATS versus the SEC football programs when they are a  three point or more  favorite. Ole Miss is  5-0 SUATS as the bowl under dog  of 3 or more points. 

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (OLE MISS) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games are 19-7 L/30 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

 CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLE MISS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 170-101 L/31 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover

Clemsons  HC Dabo Sweeney is used to playing for bigger marbles than this, and the team as whole may not be as motivated to play in a minor bowl  . Meanwhile. Kentucky is a gritty team, that has played well overall this season, against top tier competition and considering ,ACC teams are  just 1-6 SU L/7  l  bowl games vs the Southeastern Conference its not going to be hard decision for me to take the points with the underdog Wildcats who are 24-1 SU in their L/25 non conference games.

Play on Kentucky to cover

I know Oklahoma will start a freshman QB  Jackson Arnold today after their starter went into the transfer portal, but this is still a solid Sooners team that is more than capable of upending No.14th ranked Arizona.  He went 18-for-24 for 202 yards this season so its not like hes has not taken a snaps. Scouting reports also say hes is excelling in the new offensive coordinators system. I also know Arizona has won 6 straight and are streaking into this Bowl game, but it must also be noted that  Pac-12 bowl sides  are an ugly 2-25 ATS versus opposition  coming off a victory.

Note: The Sooners are 5-0 SU in their L/5 games against Pac-12.  The favorite is 2-7 ATS in this bowl venue.

Arizona QB Noah Fafita may have more issues staying upright as his starting starting left tackle, will ,miss this tilt,

Historical trend chart:

ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS in road games after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival since 1992.ARIZONA is 1-12 ATSin road games after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. (Beat rivals Arizona State 59-23 last time out)

Both of these teams have opt outs, but the deeper side is Kansas State and they have the better coach in my opinion, Kleiman who takes winning seriously and losing even more intensely as is evident by going   6-0 ATS /SU  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.( KState lost to Iowa State 42-35 to end the season) Bounce back time on todays agenda for the Wildcats. Note: Kleiman is 10-1-1 ATS off a loss versus a side  coming off a victory like NC State. 

KANSAS ST is 13-5 ATS (as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. KState ranked No. 1 in the nation in most Defensive TD

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NC STATE) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NC State is 0-3 SUATS L3 Bowls. 

Play on Kansas State to cover

To start with SMU is 0-4 SU/ATS vs ACC schools and have lost their L/3 Bowl games SU/ATS all as chalk. I know Boston college will have a back up QB at the helm of the offense, but my projections estimate they will still do enough damage to cover this number with their D being the key to covering this number and even possibly pulling of the upset. It must also be noted three of the Eagles 6 wins came as underdogs this season and they must not be discounted in this spot play . I know SMU comes in their streaking, but are jus  2-11 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins . 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 55-24 L/31 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on BC to cover

Texas A&M enters this Bowl game with a recent history of failure in Bowl games going 0-3 SU/ATS L/3 appearances. The Aggies despite of some top tier talent just makes to many mistakes and are an undisciplined group as is evident by ranking No. 130  in the nation in Most Penalties Per Game (9.83). Also the Aggies this season are 1-5 SU against fellow Bowl teams. Considering the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS L/7 series , I like their chances to cover against a inconsistent Aggies side.   .The key will be one of the nations top running backs  Gordon who eclipsed the 100-yard mark in eight games this season and has 20 TDs  of Oklahoma State. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 11-3 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS A&M is 1-8 ATSin road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

CFB team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games are 60-20 ATS sicne 1992 for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover

These teams West Virginia and North Carolina feature two key missing parts. The Mountaineers will be without starting C Zach Frazier who is out due to surgery. Meanwhile, North Carolina, will be without star QB Drake Maye  who opted out for the NFL draft. Both may have problems moving the ball consistently though the air because of this will Im betting  instead pound the ball on the ground consistently behind very strong running games. The Mounties have a trio of strong backs,  QB Garrett Green ,.J. Donaldson, and  Jaheim White  while, Tar Heels exhibit  RB Omarion Hampton who had 1442 yars of production. From my projected perspective this will be a grinding game that could easily be decided by one score, thus making the underdog value a very viable proposition. 

W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. W VIRGINIA is 1-12 ATS   as a neutral field favorite since 1992. West Virginia is also s 0-11 ATS as a bowl favorite. 

N CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS  in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season 

CFB Neutral field favorites (W VIRGINIA) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Fav has failed to cover 5 of the L/6 Duke's Mayo Bowl confrontations. 

Play on North Carolina to cover

So Tulanes HC Willie Fritz is gone to Houston along with a few assistants , but is that enough to sway this line in that big of a direction vs a side like Tulane that has won 24 of their L/27 games overall. Im betting no. This is a viable Tulane team, that is in my opinion being vastly under rated and deserve respect here getting points. The Green Wave are 11-2 on the season , while the VTech Hokies are just 6-6 on the season, and just 2-4 away from home. Just have to take the points here as the line seems bloated. VIRGINIA TECH is 2-11 ATS L/13  in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games . Also VTech won their last game of the season vs Virginia, but in the past thats not a good omen for their betting backers as they are 1-10 ATS L/11 coming off a victory as a fav (which they were).

Play on Tulane to cover

The Texas State offense was explosive this season but the D is where the problems are incurred as is evident by ,  ranking 118th in the nation while  allowing 33.8 points per game and earlier this season allowed 77 points in a loss versus Arkansas State. I know Rice  Backup AJ Padgett has not been as explosive as starter JT Daniels , but he is a quality QB that matches up well vs this miserable Texas State secondary and D. Note: AAC bowlers are 4-2 SUATS vs. Sun Belt opponent.  The Owls 7-1 ATS L/7 games as a dog of 13 or less points. RICE is 8-2 ATS in games played on turf this season.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RICE) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 57-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rice to cover 

Philadelphia  before their current 3 games losing streak had won 24 of 28 games . Despite of the negatives of their current skein this is still a proud side with enough top tier talent for a conclusive bounce back effort. I know the Giants had won 3 straight before getting lambasted by DDs last week at New Orleans , but this is a side that has been out yarded in 6 straight games and just don't have the wheels to compete here vs a frustrated and redemption minded side. Its not often I lay this much lumber, but that what Im recommending we do this Monday. 

Super Bowl losing sides from the previous season  like the Eagles are  9-1 SU L/10 opportunities   when playing off three consecutive  defeats, including 3-0 SUATS at home by an average ppg diff of 14 ppg. 

NFL team (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season is 43-14 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Eagles to cover

Kyler Murray is set to make his sixth start since returning from injury.The QB   has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 1,075 yards, four touchdowns and four interception while rushing  for 155 yards and three scores and Im betting he will be the difference maker vs a Bears side he matches up well against. 

ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.Arizona 9-2 ATS in their last eleven non-division tilts and 5-1 ATS L/6 in this series.

CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. 

CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS  after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons.

Chicago  1-5 ATS L/6 as short non-division home favorite  of 6 or less points.

Play on the Arizona Cards to cover

Seattle is not playing well, despite of finding a way to win last time out, coming from behind to beat a tired Philadelphia Eagles side  20-17 count. After 4 straight exhausting games against the 49ers twice and the Cowboys and the Eagles last time out, Im betting the Seahawks dont have alot left in the tank.  It must also be noted that the Seahawks are  0-5 SU in away tilts  this season since its Bye Week. With  Tennessee owning a 6-1 ATS record in this series  and the fact that they are 4-0 SUATS this season   off a loss the Titans look like viable underdogs. 

NFL Road teams (SEATTLE) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 22-53 ATS L/30 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover

San Jose State has not lost since late October  winning 6 straight games and have looked decent overall . But this line vs Coastal Carolina is a just a bit too big a spread. according to my projections.  Note : Coastal Carolina is 5-1 ATS vs an opponent  with equal or better record and are 20-9 ATS L/29 as a dog of  12 points or more . San Jose State HC  Brennan has cashed only 2 of 8  ATS as a double-digit favorite.

Coastal Carolina to cover

After two top tier victories in a row vs KC and Dallas, Im betting on the Bills to be in a letdown spot here in Southern California tonight vs a Chargers side   that is a  perfect 5-0 SU at home in this series and a  5-0 ATS in its last five games as a double-digit underdog . It must be noted that the Bills are 0-6 ATS L/5 as DD favs. I know the Bills need wins for a play off admission but a victory does not mean things will go all that easily , especially against a side that looks to be running the ball this week alot because their starting star QB Hebert in out. Note: The Bills rush D, is kind of wonky as is evident by allowing 4.6 ypc. Advantage Chargers 

NFL Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (LA CHARGERS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 30-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Chargers to cover

I dont think is the kind of Bowl invite the Utah Utes expected at the out set of what might be considered a disappointing season, based on high expectations. I realy cant see the Utes coming into this game with a lot of enthusiasm, and Im betting they are weak favs here vs a Northwestern side that won their L/3 games of the season while covering their L/6 overall.

. The Utes are 0-4 SU in their last four bowl tilts,  and have lost 3 of their L/4 SU/ATS vs big 10 opposition. Whittingham is 24-38 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH.

Big Ten teams coming off a victory like (Northwestern) are 14-0 ATS in bowl games versus Pac-12 opponents. Meanwhile, Pac 12 Bowl  teams like the Utes are 2-25 ATS vs teams coming off a win. 

Northwestern is 7-3 ATS L/10 bowl games. 

Play on Northwestern to cover

Pittsburgh QB  Rudolph, has  gone  5-4-1 SU and 5-3-2 ATS as a starter in his NFL career but has , a 2-0 SU record vs the Bengals. . HC Tomlin has never a had losing NFL season and he is 22-9 when he brings his team in with a .500 record and are  11-4 SU as a host   including 4-0 SUATS as a pup.  Its not easy going with a Steelers team that has scored an average of just 13 points in their L/5 games, but I feel confident we have a top tier  spot position to bet into as the Steelers really need a victory here to catch the possibility of a play off spot.  I like the Steelers chances of having the favor of the  God of Fortune  on their sides here in Steel Town this Saturday. 

PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. Steelers are 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 at home off a 3 game losing run! Steelers are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 Saturday home games.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 37-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers

JMD HC  Curt Cignetti, has left the team, some say abandoned ( lol)  to be the new coach at Indiana .This  leaves a strong side without their mentor, which could easily see the Dukes fumble here vs a military  school thats not easy to play against . 

Air Force is 9-0 L9 as non-conf dogs  and 8-2 ATS L/10 bowl games . 

CFB team (AIR FORCE) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games are 58-20 ATS L/31 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Air Force to cover

Georgia Techs  defense  is a big issue here facing a side that can light up the board in hurry. .The Gtech rush defense is the worst of  any team in this Bowl season season, ranking No. 128,th allowing 233 ypg and 5.7 ypc. With that said Im expecting the UCF top tier  ground game that has accumulated  233.2 yards per game ranking No. 4  in the nation  while scoring 28 rushing touchdowns to rip apart the GTech rush D, which will set up a strong Knights  passing game that averages 266 ypg in what Im betting will be a decisive victory.Malzahn is 9-1 ATS  in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Central Florida to cover

 Rams are currently sitting on the  No. 7 playoff seeding spot, and edging out the Saints, so this is an all important game thats every bit as important as a playoff game. I know the Saints looked good last time out, but  they have  long history of inconsistent efforts after a win as is evident by  Allens  4-15 ATS record   after 1 or more consecutive wins in all games he has coached since 1992 and his .1-7-1 ATS mark  coming off a double-digit victory. NEW ORLEANS is also  1-9 ATS  after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

Meanwhile the Rams have played their best ball late in the season recently as they are 10-1 ATS in December games over the last 3 seasons. Considering the home side in this series is a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS Im like the Rams to come out here with a truly top tier prime time effort and for us to grab the cash by backing him.

Play on the Rams to cover

Boca Raton Bowl - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL

Dino Barbers losing tenure comes to end this week, as Syracuse goes in a new direction after this Bowl tilt. The Orange are a side, that is 0-6 ATS   versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons like South Florida. Also the Orange are 3-9 ATS all-time versus the AAC and have failed to cover 8 of the L/10 meetings vs the Bulls and with this game bing a defacto home game for South Florida Im betting they have the edge when taking points.  

Play on South Florida to cover

UTSA had a fine season but historically have not done well in Bowl action as is evident by their 0-4 record. Meanwhile, Marshall despite of a mediocre season, are a football program that has alot of Bowl experience cashing ,13 of their L/18 SUATS in FBS bowl tilts , and are 7-0  SUATS vs. sub .750   opposition. Also  UTSA HC  Traylor  has failed to 9 of 14 as a non- conference favorite. 

After finishing their reg season with a 29-16 loss to Tulane, Im betting that UTSA may not be fully focused here. Note: CUSA Bowl sides are just 2-8 SUATS off a double-digit defeat. 

CFB Neutral field favorites (UTSA) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 6-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Marshall to cover

QB Hurts is not 100% for Philadelphia and is questionable for this game against Seattle. Even if he plays I like the Seahawks chances of covering and possibly even pulling off the upset. The Eagles according to my power rankings are over rated and after watching them get shellacked  the last two  weeks by SF, and Dallas my assumptions were justified, my  Note: I know Seattle has not faired well in their L/2  as dogs but from a historical standpoint have an edge here. 

The Seattle Seahawks are 16-1 ATS when off consecutive losses as a underdog, including 12-0 ATS the last 12 tilts overall.

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS   after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. 

Seattle is 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series. 

Play on Seattle 

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers behind  QB Austin Reed   are explosive offensive group as is evident by the QBs 3,340 yards passing, 31 touchdowns. I know the Toppers have shown some defense weaknesses this season which skew their negative net gains, but Old dominion is a sub .500 side, and have shown a propensity to break down over and over again this season and when they did win they were all very close as their average margin of victory in their 6 wins rings in at 3.83 ppg. .Considering the Hilltoppers are 5-1 SU L/6 in this series Ill jump on taking the points with the underdog.  W. KENTUCKY is 23-10 ATS L/23 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 at - 3.5 ppg. 

Play on Western Kentucky to cover

The Ravens  are in a look ahead spot here as they face  San Francisco next Monday night, and could easily be over looking this opponent or at least not focused 100% which they will have to be vs a revv up group of Jaguars. The Ravens are just 1-7 ATS L/8 off consecutive wins, and  just 3-7 L/10  SU meetings in this series and  lost last year here on this field by a 28-27 count. Jacksonville have cashed 7 of their L/9 as dogs, and have cashed in 6 of their :/7 Sunday games. 

Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover

The Niners have clinched a play off spot and this a situation where they could be more interesting in staying healthy than playing their top players the entire game through. This game has letdown written all over it. From a historical standpoint the Niners are just 0-4 ATS L/4 on the road as DD favs dating back 11 seasons. Arizona is  8-1 ATS as a home dog of  9 or more points when at home when taking on a  .750 or better foe.Also Road favorites of 10.5 or more points (SAN FRANCISCO) - team outgaining opponents by 1.5+ yards per pass against team outgained by 1.5+ yards per pass are just 6-27 ATS dating back to 1983. 

Play on Arizona Cards to cover

 Kansas City has lost 2 straight and are now fully focused on a start to finish beat down of this opponent. The last game hurt as the Chiefs lost to the Bills by a 20-17 count and were not impressed by the officiating which Im betting has them pumped up entering this tilt.  Note: The chiefs are 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 off a home loss. I know the Pats got a surprise win last week, but its not going to happen this week, and Im betting on it. 

NEW ENGLAND is 1-7 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better this season.NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games this season.

NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 32-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KC Chiefs to cover

The Texans are planning to start Case Keenum on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, instead of Stroud who is on concussion protocol. Despite of this I steel feel the Texans are  capable of covering this number vs a Titans team that  despite of stunning victory vs the Fins last tike look lifeless more often than not and will now be in a letdown spot. Houston has covered 5 of their L/7 road games while the Titans are 1-5 L/6 vs AFC South sides.

NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 33-9 ATS L/30 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites (TENNESSEE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texans to cover

Texas Tech got pretty banged up this season and injuries derailed a promising campaign, but believe me when I say this is a solid team.Also  I'm not getting down on them for that ugly  loss to Texas in their season finale.Note: TEXAS TECH is 8-0 ATS  off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Meanwhile, Cal had a decent season, but it was their offense and not their usually staunch D that saw them get this Bowl invite. Note:  Pac-12 bowl sides have not been good bets for while now  going 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS L/14 opportunities. Also Cal is 1-6 ATS this season against fellow Bowl sides . I know Cal mauled the the Bruins, 33-7, at the Rose Bowl stadium in their last game, but now Im betting they will be a letdown spot after that huge emotional win. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover

Detroit has been explosive offensively this season, but they go against a tough Denver D  that hasn't given up more than 22 points in the last eight games. Also the Lions have looked vulnerable even before   their loss to Green Bay on Thanks Giving as was evident when they found a way past  the Los Angeles Chargers (41-38) on a last-second field goal,  and also needed two late touchdowns to rally past Chicago (31-26) at home previous to Turkey Debacle and are off a loss to Chicago in the rematch last time out. With that said, one side looks to be uptrending ( Denver) while the other despite of the accolades in downtrending ( Detroit.) Advantage Broncos to cover. 

They barely held off New Orleans (33-28) after taking an early 21-0 lead, then were soundly defeated by the last-place Bears 28-13 Sunday.

NFL  team vs the money line (DENVER) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 33-6 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after allowing 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/30 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Denver has won 2 of the L/3 meetings here in Motown. 

Play on Denver to cover

The UCLA Bruins (7-5) will take on the Mountain West Champion Boise State Broncos (8-5) in the 2023 Starco Brands LA Bowl . 

UCLA is expected to go with  junior QB  Ethan Garbers for this game.   He has  tossed for 984 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions this season  and is more than capable of getting the Bruins to the promised land here today. On the flipside UCLA plays its best D against the run allowing an average of just 70 yards per game, and Boise State is a run first side team, with 60% of its offensive plays coming via the ground game. So the Advantage resides with the Bruins. Note: The Broncos may start a freshman QB for this game .

Play on UCLA to cover 

Im expecting the return of TJ Watts to  ignite the Steelers here today. Hey I know the Steelers have suffered  consecutive home losses to Arizona and New England, but HC Tomlin has a way of getting his troops to perform at optimal levels when you least expect it. I also know the Colts are playing decent ball of late, but their D remains a concern and can implode at any time like they did last week in a  34-14 loss on Sunday in Cincinnati.

Tomlin is 33-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of PITTSBURGH. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTSBURGH) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games. 

Colts are 2-17 SU L/19 in this series  – including 0-3 SUATS the last three times as favs. 

Play on the Steelers to cover

Cure Bowl - FBC Mortgage Stadium - Orlando, FL

The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (11-2, 10-3 ATS) square off with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-5, 6-6-1 ATS) in the Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl.

The Mountaineers are 6-1 straight up all-time in bowl games. Appalachian State is 3-0 SU when facing a MAC school in a bowl game. Today Im betting Miami O wont be able to keep up here vs a explosive Appalachian State offense that ranks tied for 19th in the country in scoring offense, with an average of  34.8 points per game. Quarterback Joey Aguilar is a top tier stud and has passed for  3,546 passing yards. He’s tied for third in the nation with 33 touchdown passes. I know Miami has shown a strong D, but the Mountaineers can rip apart of the best of stop units. On the flipside App States defense has also really started to show signs of stopping power. Over the last four regular-season games they allowed 15.3 points per game while picking off eight passes and get the nod to cover here today.

Play on App State to cover

Jacksonville State according to my post season power rankings are   being over rated here today against the UL Lafayette The Ragin’ Cajuns  are  5-1 SU all-time in the New Orleans Bowl and have won 7 of their L/10 Bowl games  including three victories  as pups. It must also be noted Gamecocks HC Rich Rodriguez is 2-9 ATS in his career in Bowl games, and 7 of his L/8 when favored. .Rodriguez is 9-21 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached in his career.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover

Los Angeles' 24-17 home win over Las Vegas in Week 4 and according to my power rankings still matchup well here giving us an edge taking points. I know Chargers QB  Juston Herbert is gone for the season, but  Easton Stick  is viable backup and must not be disrespected. Quote: "Look, I understand North Dakota State is not the National Football League, but I'm used to winning," said Stick, who played college football for the Bison. "I only know one way." End Quote. both teams are seeing alot of nagging injuuries take their tolls on both sides, but depth charts still suggest getting points here is optimal. 

LA CHARGERS are 22-9 ATS L/31 versus poor offensive teams - averaging 285 or less yards/game in the second half of the season.

LAS VEGAS is 1-9 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 93-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chargers to cover

After three straight underdog wins the Packers are back in the play off race, against a side the NY Giants that are not. Thats not a good thing from my perspective, as the Giants are playing loose while  the Packers will now feeling pressure to perform and  could easily be in a letdown situation after that trio of surprising victories. Also the Gemn have momentum coming into this prime time affair, after win last week and are now feeling alot more confident about themselves. 

Daboll is 15-6 ATS  vs. sub standard  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse as the coach of NY GIANTS.

NFLRoad favorites (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two sub standard  defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-28 ATS L/40 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

Its not easy going against a Cowboys side that  has won 14 consecutive games at home ,but thats what Im about to recommend we do. I know the Eagles had their clocks cleaned vs the SF 49ers last week, but even top tier teams like the Eagles can have an off week. I also know the Boyz despite of their strong current run still have not beaten an .above .500 team this season, and do most of their damage against sub par sides.  With that said and considering the fact that the Eagles when  QB Jalen Hurts, is on the field play vs an above .500 squad like the Cowboys the Eagles  have gone  14-1 SU  L/15 . 

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS  in road games after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a team with a struggling defense (335 to 370 YPG), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 8-18 L/10 seasons for ago against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

The Chiefs have not performed optimally of late , but don't be mistaken this a top tier team that is capable of capturing a Super Bowl and now in bounce back mode after a down effort vs the Packers last time out. Meanwhile, nothing has come easily for the Bills this season, and Im betting they will find themselves in a tough spot this week in KC. Buffalo has failed to cover 7 of their L/8. BUFFALO is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 41-21 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY. bottom line is here, is that Im big believer in Mahomes and the Chiefs, add to that I have some futures bets on the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl and you might understand why Im taking this position. 

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover

Texans behind rookie QB Stroud are getting alot of accolades, but after escaping Broncos last drive last week that stalled on Houstons 8 yard line, they enter into this game as road chalk something that they dont have a great history of being successful at ,as is evident by failing in 6 of their  L/7 in the chalk role. Add to that the Texans lost  one their top WR Dell, which Im betting will be a blow to them in this spot and you have a situation that could easily see the under performing ( Im being nice here) pulling off the upset and more importantly getting us the cover.

HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Jets 3-1 ATS L/4 meetings in this series.

Play on NY Jets to cover

Bengals QB Browning shocked alot of ppl in his big performance last week that saw him break some records for a back up , but Im betting he will suffer regression here this week, after that miraculous 34-31 OT underdog win vs the Jags.  This is an important game for both the Bengals and the  Colts, as post season implication prevail in what should be a grueling affair.   NFL  team (CINCINNATI) - off a huge upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-21 ATS L/30 seasons for a 88% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Colts to cover 

According to my own power rankings these sides are pretty evenly matched . Last season these two military schools played a grueling tilt that Army won 20-17 in OT, and Im betting on the same kind of action this time around, but with the edge going to the revenging side taking points. The revenging side has covered 10 of the L/12 meetings. NAVY is 19-6 ATS   when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992.(Army 5-6 on the season)

Play on Navy 

Bill Belichick’s Patriots just cant score, they have no flow to their offense what so ever. The Steelers are also not much better, but they have shown some signs of like under new offensive coordinator Canada. .  This could easily be a snore fest , and the linesmakers know it setting a total of around 30 points on this tilt.  I know  most of the  general public are not interested in this game, but from a bettors perspective their are some edges that can be isolated giving us the edge needed to cash a ticket. First off the Steelers after a big win feel asleep at the wheel last time out, which brings into play a strong bounce back tendency form HC  Mike Tomlin  see his team go  10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in his career,  off a home loss. Considering New England is just 0-10 SUATS in their last ten non-division contests  and 1-12 SUATS in their thirteen games as a pup. Im betting Tomlin weaves his bounce back magic once again, and with Trubisky under center  for the Steelers, a new sense of offensive effectiveness may take hole. But whatever the case Im betting the lack of Patriots scoring will doom them here again tonight in this prime time affair. 

NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS  vs. sub par kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more  yards per return this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.7. NEW ENGLAND is 1-8 ATS  passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season with a average ppg diff of -11 ppg.NEW ENGLAND is 1-7 ATS  as an underdog this season with a average ppf diff of -9.8 ppg. 

NFL Home teams (PITTSBURGH) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

The Chiefs have a recent history of not performing optimally off one win exact  going  2-9 ATS  including 1-5 ATS road games . Kansas City is  also 0-9 ATS as a favorite when both teams are coming off an ATS win and is 0-7 ATS  after a win by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

(Packers won last week as dogs and the Chiefs polished off Vegas by DDS as favs.) On  the fliside  the Packers are 13-4 ATS as a dog of 3 or more  points with HC Matt LaFleur on the sidelines. Also  Packers QB QB Jordan Love owns a  3-0 SU/ATS  in his young career hosting a  non-conference opponent.  LaFleur is 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points as the coach of GREEN BAY.

Add to that GREEN BAY is 10-1 ATS L/11 in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in the second half of the season and is s 10-1 ATS  L/11  in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season , As well as GREEN BAY is 16-4 ATS L/20 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in the second half of the season . 

.NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 31-9 ATS L/30 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Green Bay to cover

The Tampa Bays Bucs' will be with out three top tier    defenders for this  this game: LB Lavonte David (groin), LB Devin White (foot) and CB Jamel Dean (ankle) making a inept Carolina D, more proficient. Thats not a good omen considering  The Bucs D since they  came offt heir  bye  in Week 6,  rank last in the NFL in EPA/play (0.069) On the flipside the Bucks offense with Bake Mayfield at the helm have proven to be bad bets when favored cashing just 13 of 38 times for a go against 65% conversion rate for his batting backers. With that said, Ill recommend we take the points with a Carolina team that has not pressure on them what so ever, as their play off hopes are already dead in the water. 

)TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS L/10  vs. struggling  passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att in the second half of the season.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 97-47 ATS L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 87-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL road pups with one or less wins entering their eighth through 12th contest of the season are 63-30-5 (68%) ATS since 2003, covering by an veage  3.6 points per game.

Play on Carolina to cover

Broncos have now won 5 in a row SU after starting the season 1-5 SU and deserve respect here as underdogs this week vs the Texans. Nothing comes easily for the Texans this season, and Im betting if they get the win here this week, it wont come easily. Advantage taking the points. 

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more  PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA), after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 11-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

DENVER is 6-3 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 and won the most recent meeting here in Texas. 

Payton is 13-4 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Denver to cover

The Lions looked bad in their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers, and have shown alot of signs of weakness at times this season despite of the consistent accolades they get from the media. From a trends perspectivee the Lions have also failed to cover 5 of their L/6 off a SU chalk loss

   . Meanwhile, the Saints are desperate and need a victory badly to  stay inNFC Playoff race.as well as NFC South contention . I know the Saints have not looked good of late, but they are  New  s 6-0 ATS when coming off back-to-back SUATS defeats and are  7-2 ATS in this series and 4-0 ATS when getting points .  NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS L/20  vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game in the second half of the season

DETROIT is 16-31 ATSas a road favorite since 1992.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 45-91 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans Saints to cover

This is biggest spread in the history of the Big 10 Championship game. This behemoth line is what we get to bet in here with Iowa . Considering Big 10 chalk has failed to cover 8 of the L/12 events , it becomes obvious they we may have some top tier value with a team with a top tier D, playing at home. It thus must be noted that HC Harbaugh vs top tier Ds, who are .800 or better opposition allowing less  than 12.5 PPG, is just  1-5 ATS as a  big chalk fav  of -18  plus points. After taking on the Buckeyes last week in a close win Im not sure Michigan will be 100%  after that physical game and could also be in an emotional letdown state at the worst possible time. Im not saying the Hawkeyes will win, but covering is definitely a strong possibility here.Ferentz is in 32  vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game as the coach of IOWA has seen a average ppg diff of - 3 ppg. 

Play on Iowa to cover

Statistical analysis based on recent performances might make these teams seem closely matched. But from an empirical  view point home field advantage and what my power rankings suggest is the more talented side, laying this little lumber makes for a viable wagering opportunity with a team that has been ranked top 25 for much of this season. Add to that SMU QB SMU's star quarterback, Preston Stone, broke his fibula in last week's battle  with Navy. The Mustangs will now turn to redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings who despite of being talented is just not as prolific as Stone. 

Tulane is 9-0 ATS L/9 as  a favorite of 7 points or less. SMU is 0-7 ATS   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 0-7 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games. 

Road underdogs (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-35 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover

SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Im doing the unthinkable and taking Georgia a program that has won 29 straight games to take out Nick Sabans Alabama this week and more importantly to cover. My power rankings suggest the Bulldogs are the best team in the country, and despite of Alabama looking good down the stretch, did not look like one of HC Sabans  more cohesive or even talented groups that  he has mentored in his long coaching career. That was most evident to me in the Tides loss to Texas , a side that is of the top tier variety, but not in the same spectrum as Georgia. 

Key : No opponent reached 150 rushing yards against Georgia the past three seasons and no opponent has scored more than 23 points total against the Bulldogs. 

Bottom line: This is by far the best defense Alabama has faced this season .On the flipside the  Bulldogs  get to crack open the gaps behind RB  K Milton  vs a Tide side  that has given up more than 200 yards rushing in two of the last four games.  Milton has rushed for 349 yards on 41 carries and 5 touchdowns the last three games with an 8.5 yards per carry average.

Saban is 7-20 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game as the coach of ALABAMA.Saban is 9-18 ATSL/27 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA

GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Georgia to cover 

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels  host the Boise State Cowboys this afternoon are playing at home . The Rebels have the better record which sets up a nice trend to continue as coach Odom is 12-1 SU at home in his career in games in where  his side owns  the better win percentage on the season, which UNLV does. On the season UNLV is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the underdog role. Yes,  I know Boise State has won 3 straight but that kind of run has not historically been kind to them as they are 3-6 L/9 SU off a .3 or more game  SU/ATS positive run. 

CFB Road favorites (BOISE ST) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 43-86 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNLV to cover

Because Dallas has been top form of late, and also because they are Americas team  they are being over rated here vs the Seattle Seahawks a side that has won 3 of the L/4 meetings vs the Boyz including 4 straight covers. I know Seattle has not performed optimally of late, and lost their last two games both as pups but it must be noted Seahawks  teams are 10-0 ATS L/10 when losing consecutive tilts as underdogs. Carroll is 20-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE.

Carroll is 20-10 ATS  against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

 DALLAS is 17-38 ATS L/55 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. 

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a good offense - averaging 335 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 12-32 ATS L/5 seasons for. a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover

The Vikings had their 5 game win streak snapped last time out, and now enter this home game vs a side they beat earlier this season, but saw them out stated while putting just 220 yards of offense on the board. The Vikings /Horse Shoe might be starting to loosen, and the proverbial wheels looks ready to fall off the cart. Remember that above mentioned game that the Vikings won saw Bears QB Justin Fields get injured and with him fully healthy again I like the Bears odds of being competitive. Note the Vikings are 0-6 ATS on MNF when coming off a loss.  

Vikings are 3-9 ATS L/12 as division home chalk. Bears are 6-1 ATS L/7 Monday night away games. 

Play on Chicago to cover

Buffalo has had a bit of disappointing season but still rank in the Top 10 on both offense and defense and should be respected here against a foe in a letdown spot after a huge upset win vs KC last time out. NFL home sides  who pulled an  upset vs the defending Super Bowl champion in its last game like the Eagles did , have failed to cash 6 straight times, dating back to the 2020 season. BUFFALO is 14-4 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games . McDermott is 12-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 58-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Buffalo to cash

Joe Burrows is out for the season, and the Bengals as a group Im sure in a letdown mentality and that Im betting plays out here today against a hungry Steelers group that must not be understimated . Note:  Bengals will start veteran backup Jake Browning who will make his first start in just his third game since entering the league in 2019.this is important because QBs  making their first career start vs. Steelers are 1-11 straight-up (SU) in their last 12 games dating back to 1987.

Steelers to cover 

Colorado needs a win to become Bowl eligible but they just seem like a team that does not  perform well under pressure and have been inconsistent all season long. Here tonight against a Hawaii side that has improved as the season has progressed and enter this game on a two game winning streak Im betting they choke. Note: Hawaii is  5-0 SU in their L/5 home finales the L/5 years and with that said,  Im betting on the underdog getting points.

Play on Hawaii to cover

The California Bears need a win here today at the  UCLA to become Bowl eligible. With the Bruins off a big win vs USC last week   by a  38- 20 score Im betting the Bruins are vulnerable to a letdown vs a hungry side. Note : the the  Bruins  are  1-8-1 ATS at home after facing USC. . Cal Bears HC  Justin Wilcox is 13-5 ATS L/18 as a home dog.  Cal is 9-1 ATS in this series when UCLA is coming off a win and get the nod here in desperation mode. 

CALIFORNIA is 23-10 ATS L/33 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Kelly is 0-7 ATS  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of UCLA.

 UCLA is 13-26 ATS ( L/39 as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.

NCAAF Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CALIFORNIA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 36-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on Cal Bears to cover

Jaguars have played well lately but are just  are 1-12 ATS following consecutive home chalk victories and  and 1-11 ATS away off consecutive home tilts.   I know Texas State is off a ugly loss last time out, but they have been very competitive this season and deserve respect here as pups. note: Texas State is  8-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. S ALABAMA is also  0-12 ATS L/12 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) .

TEXAS ST is 4-0 straight up against at home vs S ALABAMA since 1992.

Texas State to cover

Virginia upset Duke last week and are now in a huge emotional letdown spot vs instate rivals Vtech and very vulnerable .

Vtech is 11-1-1 ATS.in finales , Virginia is just 0-11 SU  L/11 when facing a Hokies  side with a better record on the season. VIRGINIA TECH is 32-16 ATS  L/48 as a road favorite of 7 points or less .

CFB road team (VIRGINIA TECH) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less  TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 89-52 ATS L/10 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Vtech to cover

James Madison had their undefeated season abruptly come to end vs App State last time and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a Coastal Carolina squad that had a 5 game win streak end last time out. With  Coastal having a 7-4 record  they need a win  to get them to the Sun Belt title game vs. Troy and will be ready to play all out football here this week vs a  program ineligible to play post season football this season/  CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JAMES MADISON) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 62-31 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

 Wisconsin is Bowl eligible after last weeks win while Minnesota desperately needs a victory to get a Bowl invite. Im betting the home, side has the edge. I know the Gophers have not looked good of late, but it must be noted that HC Fleck is 9-1 SU/ATS when coming off a pair of losses and than playing at home.MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS  after being out-gained by 175 or more total yds 2 consecutive games. Fleck is 8-1 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of MINNESOTA. 

Minnesota to cover

Rice according to my power rankings sis the superior side here today and the line should be closer to -7 for the home side. 

RICE is 21-7 ATS   in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game.RICE is 27-10 ATS  L/27  in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%. ). 

FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

RICE is 15-1 ATS L/16 in home games after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. 

CFB Home favorites (RICE) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 44-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on the Rice to cover

This game has some huge implications as the winner will get to the College Football Playoff semifinals.   With Michigan QB  JJ Macarthy (ankle) less than 100%  and going  just  12-for-23 via pass including 1  interception   against the Terrapins” last week some doubts about his ability to play vs this type of prime time Ohio State D  loom large . The Buckeyes  have been solid dogs in the past in n Big Ten Title games cashing 10 straight times as pups.  .   We all know how good the /Wolverines D  as is evident by allowing 9 points and 253 yards per game. But the Buckeyes football program has won 15 of their L/18 SU  versus conference opposition that allow less than 10 ppg.  Wolverine iconic HC Harbaugh will once again not be on the sidelines for this big game-  which is not a good omen for a side that has cashed only 2 of  their L/ 9 opportunities  ATS vs undefeated conference opponents . 

OHIO ST is 8-1 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120  or lesws rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (OHIO ST) - with a great scoring defense - allowing 14 or less points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-14 ATS L/.5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio State to cover

Penn State continues to struggle against the top tier teams in the Big 10 losing to both Ohio State and Michigan this season. However, against the lower tier programs seem to always come to play in merciless fashion. Michigan State is a team that suddenly finds itself in the lower echilon of the conference and with nothing really to play for could easily come out flat here today and crushed by a frustrated Litany Lions side that will want to make a statement.PENN ST is 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at + 27.1. 

Play on Penn State to cover

After a hard fought narrow win against Florida last time out, Im betting Missouri is vulnerable here today against Doctor Jekyll and Mr Hyde football team in Arkansas. Recent history also tells a story of Tigers futility as they are 0-5 ATS L/5   in Last Road Games,  and are   0-6 ATS away in their final tilts of the campaign. ARKANSAS is 4-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI  at home since 1992.

ARKANSAS is 25-10 ATS L/35 in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arkansas to cover

After starting their season 8-0 this Air Force side has looked flat of late, with their current 3 game losing streak starting with a ugly make no sense loss to Army. That embarrassing defeat  and deflating loss to their military foe has reverberated into two more losses.  The 2nd loss came in Hawaii and I can see this group just licking their wounds and just laying back on paradise island  and not preparing well for the Rainbow game where they looked lifeless or maybe hungover. Last weeks loss vs UNLV had them back on track despite of negative3 31-27 count.  Now this week against the Broncos Im expecting Air Force will fly high again and possibly even pull of the upset vs a side that they matchup well against. .  BOISE ST is 3-11 ATS after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons (which was the case last time out)Calhoun is 34-13 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of AIR FORCE.

Play on Air Force to cover

Utah State was smashed last week in a 35-point home loss to Boise State in embarrassing fashion and are now in a key bounce back situation vs New Mexico this week, as they desperately need a win to become bowl eligible. Utah State is  6-0 SU/ATS series run and according to my power rankings should be more than TD fav here. I know the Lobos took out Fresno State last week in. big upset win, but will now be in a letdown spot and very vulnerable vs a hungry side. Note: Lobos’ 0-7 SU L/7 in games coming off an upset win as a dog of 16 or more points and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 at home under those perimeters. 

Play on Utah State to cover

The Jets have dropped three straight games and are turning to journeyman Tim Boyle under center when they face the Dolphins in a Black Friday clash at East Rutherford, N.J. Im betting he will be a blast of fresh air for this stale Jets attack. I know Miami has done well this season, offensively but the Jets D has been mostly solid and Im betting hold up well here in the cold windy conditions today against a team not so ready to play in the cool weather. 

NY JETS are 19-8 ATS L/27 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. NY JETS are 29-14 ATS L/43 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-9 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover

TCU has obviously not had a great season, especially considering their appearance the  CFB Playoff championship game last year. But with the experience on the sidelines, with the coaching staff and with the context of desperation in play here as the Frogs need a win to become Bowl eligible, Im betting on them putting alot of fight into this tilt and they won't go down without a fight. Note: The Frogs have covered their L/4 trips to Norman to play the Sooners and Im backing them to continue that run this Friday.

TCU is 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons

CFB road team (TCU) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU to cover

The Hawkeyes are the 2023 Big Ten West champs yet are being placed as dogs here vs a Nebraska side that despite of needing a win here badly, are not a football program that has a recent history of winning games clutch or otherwise. Hey I know Iowa has problems scoring , but their D, is outstanding and should give a pedestrian Nebraska offense a load of  problems here today in a game I doubt they deserve to be favorites in. Iowa has won 7 of the L/8 in this series, and must not be underestimated in the underdog role.

IOWA is 19-7 in their L/26  road game where the total is 42 or less have seen a +2 ppg diff .

CFB road team (IOWA) - with a great scoring defense - allowing 14 or less points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover

Its chilly in Massachusetts this time of year, and the Canes Cristobal and company may find their welcome from Boston College chilly as well. The Canes are off 3 hard fought losses, and doubt they have much gas left in the proverbial tank. Note :The Canes  are 0-5 ATS  L/5 as a favorite when coming off three losses-exact,. I know BC has not been a very consistent side this season, but at home have a recent history of being a solid dog especially at home covering 5 in q row as +8 or more pup. 

MIAMI is 1-8 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 0-8 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on BC to cover