My projections make this Washington Huskies team an  underdog of closer to a FG in a game Im betting will be much closer than this line suggests. Huskies HC DeBoer is  8-1 ATS as a  pup , including 5-0 SUATS with the Huskies and is also  6-1 SU against  undefeated opposition. Meanwhile, HC Harbaugh owns a  11-21-1 ATS career vs undefeated sides like Washington. Teams like Michigan who defeated a Nick Saban side last time out have failed to cash 11 of their L/14. My own view here is the Michigan wolverines after getting some fortunate calls and a dream play run at the game to tie Alabama could find it hard to get their emotional drive back here . After watching in disbelief Saban allowed Michigan  to take the ball first in OT with momentum   which resulted in a TD. Then on offense the Tides miscues cost them from tying the game.  Now  Im betting the Wolverines  will now be in a huge letdown spot. In my opinion it was Saban that lost that game and gifted it to Michigan.  Hey dont get me wrong the Wolverines are fine team, but Im betting on Huskies super star QB Penix who can make the best of Defenses look bad to step up here and give the edge to the Huskies to cover. note: DeBoer is 11-1 ATS   in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Play on Washington to cover

Alabama started slowly this year but like a  run away freight train seem unstoppable now. 

The Tide enter this game with some powerful trends on their  side. For example Alabama is  20-3-1 ATS as an underdog against  an undefeated team and the SEC champion team  is  perfect  6-0 ATS in a Bowl game  vs a undefeated side.  On the flipside the wolverines are 0-6 SU/ATS in their L/6 Bowl games.

I know Michigan can run the ball, and have a mobile QB, but Sabans crew owns 30th ranked rush defense in the country allowing just   3.7 YPC and 124.5 YPG. I can see Harbaugh finding the sledding tough in this matchup and thus for us taking the points makes alot of sense. 

ALABAMA is 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play this season.

Harbaugh is 4-12 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of MICHIGAN.

Play on Alabama to cover

The Tennessee Volunteers have alot of talent, but that has not helped all that much this season, as they underperformed as compared to what the pundits though they would achieve. The Vols owned the worst time of possession in all of FCS football, and here against Iowas super staunch D, will be challenged to hold the ball for long here today. What Im betting on is that this disciplined Iowa D, that ranked 5th in not taking penalties this season will life miserable for a mistake prone and undisciplined Vols side that ranked 127 th in penalties this season. I know the Hawkeyes offense has looked stale this season, but it must be noted that TENNESSEE is 5-15 ATS L/20 versus terrible offensive teams - averaging 4.25 or less yards/play. Also Ferentz is 31-18 ATS  when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of IOWA with the average ppg diff clicking in at +4.3 ppg. 

Play on Iowa to cover

Liberty comes into this game undefeated and have out yarded their opposition in every game this season and Im betting if they lose to this powerful Oregon side they wont go into the night easily. After losing the PAC 12 championship to Washington, the Ducks may find themselves in a emotional letdown spot. With RB Bucky Irving opting out and a litany of other key missing parts from the regular season the Ducks are waddling in this tilt vs a formidable opponent.  QB Bo Nix cannot win this game on his own.

Note: Pac 12 Bowlers are 3-26 ATS vs teams coming off a victory like Liberty.  
Liberty 6-0 ATS vs. sides  coming off a SUATS loss as a favorite.

OREGON is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

LIBERTY is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (LIBERTY) - excellent rushing team - averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 26-3 ATS L/31 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Neutral field underdogs (LIBERTY) - outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-3 ATS L/31 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Liberty to cover

QB Jayden Daniels’ will play for LSU today and his name alone has over bloated this line in favor of the underdogs Wisconsin. It must be noted that Heisman Trophy QBS  have lost 20 of 31 games SU vs top tier  defenses that give up 19 PPG or less like the Badgers. I know LSU has flashy explosive offense but Wisconsin has a very tough D, that can slow down the best of attacks. On the flips side Im betting the Badgers can grind their way towards the red zone , and also do some damage to a non existent  LSU red zone D, ranked 113th in the nation. Note:

Brian Kelly is 1-7 ATS as a bowl favorite of 7 or more points while, the Badgers have covered 6 of their L/8 as 6+ point underdogs.

CFB Neutral field favorites (LSU) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 9-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WISCONSIN) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 38-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 9 or more defensive starters returning are 34-18 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors 

Play on Wisconsin to cover

Auburn lost  In the Stats battles , in all 7 conference games with a net average of -165 YPG and yet fine d favor with the linesmakers. Needless to say this was not one of better incarnations of the Auburn football program and Im betting they are getting far to much respect here  vs a Maryland side with a top tier QB at the helm of their offense,  ( future NFLer  Taulia Tagovailoa)

Auburn is -1-5 SU ATS L/6 Bowl games and failed to cover 7 of their L/8 against the Big 10.  AUBURN is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog.

Teprs are 5-1 ATS  L/6 non conference tilts. 

MARYLAND is 9-2 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Maryland to cover

Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart can rip apart the best of defenses. Yes, Penn State has a top tier D, but their offense is very inconsistent . Note: Penn States respected defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has left a for a job at Duke, and will not be around to mentor his D today. Edge Ole Miss taking points. 

Big Ten bowl sides like Penn State  have lost 11 of 17 games  and are just  4-13 ATS versus the SEC football programs when they are a  three point or more  favorite. Ole Miss is  5-0 SUATS as the bowl under dog  of 3 or more points. 

CFB Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (OLE MISS) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games are 19-7 L/30 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

 CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLE MISS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning are 170-101 L/31 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ole Miss to cover

Clemsons  HC Dabo Sweeney is used to playing for bigger marbles than this, and the team as whole may not be as motivated to play in a minor bowl  . Meanwhile. Kentucky is a gritty team, that has played well overall this season, against top tier competition and considering ,ACC teams are  just 1-6 SU L/7  l  bowl games vs the Southeastern Conference its not going to be hard decision for me to take the points with the underdog Wildcats who are 24-1 SU in their L/25 non conference games.

Play on Kentucky to cover

I know Oklahoma will start a freshman QB  Jackson Arnold today after their starter went into the transfer portal, but this is still a solid Sooners team that is more than capable of upending No.14th ranked Arizona.  He went 18-for-24 for 202 yards this season so its not like hes has not taken a snaps. Scouting reports also say hes is excelling in the new offensive coordinators system. I also know Arizona has won 6 straight and are streaking into this Bowl game, but it must also be noted that  Pac-12 bowl sides  are an ugly 2-25 ATS versus opposition  coming off a victory.

Note: The Sooners are 5-0 SU in their L/5 games against Pac-12.  The favorite is 2-7 ATS in this bowl venue.

Arizona QB Noah Fafita may have more issues staying upright as his starting starting left tackle, will ,miss this tilt,

Historical trend chart:

ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS in road games after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival since 1992.ARIZONA is 1-12 ATSin road games after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. (Beat rivals Arizona State 59-23 last time out)

Both of these teams have opt outs, but the deeper side is Kansas State and they have the better coach in my opinion, Kleiman who takes winning seriously and losing even more intensely as is evident by going   6-0 ATS /SU  after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.( KState lost to Iowa State 42-35 to end the season) Bounce back time on todays agenda for the Wildcats. Note: Kleiman is 10-1-1 ATS off a loss versus a side  coming off a victory like NC State. 

KANSAS ST is 13-5 ATS (as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. KState ranked No. 1 in the nation in most Defensive TD

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NC STATE) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

NC State is 0-3 SUATS L3 Bowls. 

Play on Kansas State to cover

To start with SMU is 0-4 SU/ATS vs ACC schools and have lost their L/3 Bowl games SU/ATS all as chalk. I know Boston college will have a back up QB at the helm of the offense, but my projections estimate they will still do enough damage to cover this number with their D being the key to covering this number and even possibly pulling of the upset. It must also be noted three of the Eagles 6 wins came as underdogs this season and they must not be discounted in this spot play . I know SMU comes in their streaking, but are jus  2-11 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins . 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 55-24 L/31 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on BC to cover

Texas A&M enters this Bowl game with a recent history of failure in Bowl games going 0-3 SU/ATS L/3 appearances. The Aggies despite of some top tier talent just makes to many mistakes and are an undisciplined group as is evident by ranking No. 130  in the nation in Most Penalties Per Game (9.83). Also the Aggies this season are 1-5 SU against fellow Bowl teams. Considering the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS L/7 series , I like their chances to cover against a inconsistent Aggies side.   .The key will be one of the nations top running backs  Gordon who eclipsed the 100-yard mark in eight games this season and has 20 TDs  of Oklahoma State. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 11-3 ATS  vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.

TEXAS A&M is 1-8 ATSin road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

CFB team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games are 60-20 ATS sicne 1992 for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma State to cover

These teams West Virginia and North Carolina feature two key missing parts. The Mountaineers will be without starting C Zach Frazier who is out due to surgery. Meanwhile, North Carolina, will be without star QB Drake Maye  who opted out for the NFL draft. Both may have problems moving the ball consistently though the air because of this will Im betting  instead pound the ball on the ground consistently behind very strong running games. The Mounties have a trio of strong backs,  QB Garrett Green ,.J. Donaldson, and  Jaheim White  while, Tar Heels exhibit  RB Omarion Hampton who had 1442 yars of production. From my projected perspective this will be a grinding game that could easily be decided by one score, thus making the underdog value a very viable proposition. 

W VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. W VIRGINIA is 1-12 ATS   as a neutral field favorite since 1992. West Virginia is also s 0-11 ATS as a bowl favorite. 

N CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS  in road games against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season 

CFB Neutral field favorites (W VIRGINIA) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

The Fav has failed to cover 5 of the L/6 Duke's Mayo Bowl confrontations. 

Play on North Carolina to cover

So Tulanes HC Willie Fritz is gone to Houston along with a few assistants , but is that enough to sway this line in that big of a direction vs a side like Tulane that has won 24 of their L/27 games overall. Im betting no. This is a viable Tulane team, that is in my opinion being vastly under rated and deserve respect here getting points. The Green Wave are 11-2 on the season , while the VTech Hokies are just 6-6 on the season, and just 2-4 away from home. Just have to take the points here as the line seems bloated. VIRGINIA TECH is 2-11 ATS L/13  in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games . Also VTech won their last game of the season vs Virginia, but in the past thats not a good omen for their betting backers as they are 1-10 ATS L/11 coming off a victory as a fav (which they were).

Play on Tulane to cover

The Texas State offense was explosive this season but the D is where the problems are incurred as is evident by ,  ranking 118th in the nation while  allowing 33.8 points per game and earlier this season allowed 77 points in a loss versus Arkansas State. I know Rice  Backup AJ Padgett has not been as explosive as starter JT Daniels , but he is a quality QB that matches up well vs this miserable Texas State secondary and D. Note: AAC bowlers are 4-2 SUATS vs. Sun Belt opponent.  The Owls 7-1 ATS L/7 games as a dog of 13 or less points. RICE is 8-2 ATS in games played on turf this season.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RICE) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 57-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rice to cover 

San Jose State has not lost since late October  winning 6 straight games and have looked decent overall . But this line vs Coastal Carolina is a just a bit too big a spread. according to my projections.  Note : Coastal Carolina is 5-1 ATS vs an opponent  with equal or better record and are 20-9 ATS L/29 as a dog of  12 points or more . San Jose State HC  Brennan has cashed only 2 of 8  ATS as a double-digit favorite.

Coastal Carolina to cover

I dont think is the kind of Bowl invite the Utah Utes expected at the out set of what might be considered a disappointing season, based on high expectations. I realy cant see the Utes coming into this game with a lot of enthusiasm, and Im betting they are weak favs here vs a Northwestern side that won their L/3 games of the season while covering their L/6 overall.

. The Utes are 0-4 SU in their last four bowl tilts,  and have lost 3 of their L/4 SU/ATS vs big 10 opposition. Whittingham is 24-38 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of UTAH.

Big Ten teams coming off a victory like (Northwestern) are 14-0 ATS in bowl games versus Pac-12 opponents. Meanwhile, Pac 12 Bowl  teams like the Utes are 2-25 ATS vs teams coming off a win. 

Northwestern is 7-3 ATS L/10 bowl games. 

Play on Northwestern to cover

JMD HC  Curt Cignetti, has left the team, some say abandoned ( lol)  to be the new coach at Indiana .This  leaves a strong side without their mentor, which could easily see the Dukes fumble here vs a military  school thats not easy to play against . 

Air Force is 9-0 L9 as non-conf dogs  and 8-2 ATS L/10 bowl games . 

CFB team (AIR FORCE) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games are 58-20 ATS L/31 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Air Force to cover

Georgia Techs  defense  is a big issue here facing a side that can light up the board in hurry. .The Gtech rush defense is the worst of  any team in this Bowl season season, ranking No. 128,th allowing 233 ypg and 5.7 ypc. With that said Im expecting the UCF top tier  ground game that has accumulated  233.2 yards per game ranking No. 4  in the nation  while scoring 28 rushing touchdowns to rip apart the GTech rush D, which will set up a strong Knights  passing game that averages 266 ypg in what Im betting will be a decisive victory.Malzahn is 9-1 ATS  in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75 or more  rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Central Florida to cover

Boca Raton Bowl - FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL

Dino Barbers losing tenure comes to end this week, as Syracuse goes in a new direction after this Bowl tilt. The Orange are a side, that is 0-6 ATS   versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game over the last 2 seasons like South Florida. Also the Orange are 3-9 ATS all-time versus the AAC and have failed to cover 8 of the L/10 meetings vs the Bulls and with this game bing a defacto home game for South Florida Im betting they have the edge when taking points.  

Play on South Florida to cover

UTSA had a fine season but historically have not done well in Bowl action as is evident by their 0-4 record. Meanwhile, Marshall despite of a mediocre season, are a football program that has alot of Bowl experience cashing ,13 of their L/18 SUATS in FBS bowl tilts , and are 7-0  SUATS vs. sub .750   opposition. Also  UTSA HC  Traylor  has failed to 9 of 14 as a non- conference favorite. 

After finishing their reg season with a 29-16 loss to Tulane, Im betting that UTSA may not be fully focused here. Note: CUSA Bowl sides are just 2-8 SUATS off a double-digit defeat. 

CFB Neutral field favorites (UTSA) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season are 6-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Marshall to cover

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers behind  QB Austin Reed   are explosive offensive group as is evident by the QBs 3,340 yards passing, 31 touchdowns. I know the Toppers have shown some defense weaknesses this season which skew their negative net gains, but Old dominion is a sub .500 side, and have shown a propensity to break down over and over again this season and when they did win they were all very close as their average margin of victory in their 6 wins rings in at 3.83 ppg. .Considering the Hilltoppers are 5-1 SU L/6 in this series Ill jump on taking the points with the underdog.  W. KENTUCKY is 23-10 ATS L/23 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 at - 3.5 ppg. 

Play on Western Kentucky to cover

Texas Tech got pretty banged up this season and injuries derailed a promising campaign, but believe me when I say this is a solid team.Also  I'm not getting down on them for that ugly  loss to Texas in their season finale.Note: TEXAS TECH is 8-0 ATS  off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Meanwhile, Cal had a decent season, but it was their offense and not their usually staunch D that saw them get this Bowl invite. Note:  Pac-12 bowl sides have not been good bets for while now  going 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS L/14 opportunities. Also Cal is 1-6 ATS this season against fellow Bowl sides . I know Cal mauled the the Bruins, 33-7, at the Rose Bowl stadium in their last game, but now Im betting they will be a letdown spot after that huge emotional win. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover

The UCLA Bruins (7-5) will take on the Mountain West Champion Boise State Broncos (8-5) in the 2023 Starco Brands LA Bowl . 

UCLA is expected to go with  junior QB  Ethan Garbers for this game.   He has  tossed for 984 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions this season  and is more than capable of getting the Bruins to the promised land here today. On the flipside UCLA plays its best D against the run allowing an average of just 70 yards per game, and Boise State is a run first side team, with 60% of its offensive plays coming via the ground game. So the Advantage resides with the Bruins. Note: The Broncos may start a freshman QB for this game .

Play on UCLA to cover 

Cure Bowl - FBC Mortgage Stadium - Orlando, FL

The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (11-2, 10-3 ATS) square off with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-5, 6-6-1 ATS) in the Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl.

The Mountaineers are 6-1 straight up all-time in bowl games. Appalachian State is 3-0 SU when facing a MAC school in a bowl game. Today Im betting Miami O wont be able to keep up here vs a explosive Appalachian State offense that ranks tied for 19th in the country in scoring offense, with an average of  34.8 points per game. Quarterback Joey Aguilar is a top tier stud and has passed for  3,546 passing yards. He’s tied for third in the nation with 33 touchdown passes. I know Miami has shown a strong D, but the Mountaineers can rip apart of the best of stop units. On the flipside App States defense has also really started to show signs of stopping power. Over the last four regular-season games they allowed 15.3 points per game while picking off eight passes and get the nod to cover here today.

Play on App State to cover

Jacksonville State according to my post season power rankings are   being over rated here today against the UL Lafayette The Ragin’ Cajuns  are  5-1 SU all-time in the New Orleans Bowl and have won 7 of their L/10 Bowl games  including three victories  as pups. It must also be noted Gamecocks HC Rich Rodriguez is 2-9 ATS in his career in Bowl games, and 7 of his L/8 when favored. .Rodriguez is 9-21 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached in his career.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover

According to my own power rankings these sides are pretty evenly matched . Last season these two military schools played a grueling tilt that Army won 20-17 in OT, and Im betting on the same kind of action this time around, but with the edge going to the revenging side taking points. The revenging side has covered 10 of the L/12 meetings. NAVY is 19-6 ATS   when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992.(Army 5-6 on the season)

Play on Navy 

This is biggest spread in the history of the Big 10 Championship game. This behemoth line is what we get to bet in here with Iowa . Considering Big 10 chalk has failed to cover 8 of the L/12 events , it becomes obvious they we may have some top tier value with a team with a top tier D, playing at home. It thus must be noted that HC Harbaugh vs top tier Ds, who are .800 or better opposition allowing less  than 12.5 PPG, is just  1-5 ATS as a  big chalk fav  of -18  plus points. After taking on the Buckeyes last week in a close win Im not sure Michigan will be 100%  after that physical game and could also be in an emotional letdown state at the worst possible time. Im not saying the Hawkeyes will win, but covering is definitely a strong possibility here.Ferentz is in 32  vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game as the coach of IOWA has seen a average ppg diff of - 3 ppg. 

Play on Iowa to cover

Statistical analysis based on recent performances might make these teams seem closely matched. But from an empirical  view point home field advantage and what my power rankings suggest is the more talented side, laying this little lumber makes for a viable wagering opportunity with a team that has been ranked top 25 for much of this season. Add to that SMU QB SMU's star quarterback, Preston Stone, broke his fibula in last week's battle  with Navy. The Mustangs will now turn to redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings who despite of being talented is just not as prolific as Stone. 

Tulane is 9-0 ATS L/9 as  a favorite of 7 points or less. SMU is 0-7 ATS   in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 0-7 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 0-8 ATS L/8 in road games after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games. 

Road underdogs (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-35 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tulane to cover

SEC Championship Game - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Im doing the unthinkable and taking Georgia a program that has won 29 straight games to take out Nick Sabans Alabama this week and more importantly to cover. My power rankings suggest the Bulldogs are the best team in the country, and despite of Alabama looking good down the stretch, did not look like one of HC Sabans  more cohesive or even talented groups that  he has mentored in his long coaching career. That was most evident to me in the Tides loss to Texas , a side that is of the top tier variety, but not in the same spectrum as Georgia. 

Key : No opponent reached 150 rushing yards against Georgia the past three seasons and no opponent has scored more than 23 points total against the Bulldogs. 

Bottom line: This is by far the best defense Alabama has faced this season .On the flipside the  Bulldogs  get to crack open the gaps behind RB  K Milton  vs a Tide side  that has given up more than 200 yards rushing in two of the last four games.  Milton has rushed for 349 yards on 41 carries and 5 touchdowns the last three games with an 8.5 yards per carry average.

Saban is 7-20 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game as the coach of ALABAMA.Saban is 9-18 ATSL/27 in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more  yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA

GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Georgia to cover 

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels  host the Boise State Cowboys this afternoon are playing at home . The Rebels have the better record which sets up a nice trend to continue as coach Odom is 12-1 SU at home in his career in games in where  his side owns  the better win percentage on the season, which UNLV does. On the season UNLV is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the underdog role. Yes,  I know Boise State has won 3 straight but that kind of run has not historically been kind to them as they are 3-6 L/9 SU off a .3 or more game  SU/ATS positive run. 

CFB Road favorites (BOISE ST) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 43-86 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on UNLV to cover

Colorado needs a win to become Bowl eligible but they just seem like a team that does not  perform well under pressure and have been inconsistent all season long. Here tonight against a Hawaii side that has improved as the season has progressed and enter this game on a two game winning streak Im betting they choke. Note: Hawaii is  5-0 SU in their L/5 home finales the L/5 years and with that said,  Im betting on the underdog getting points.

Play on Hawaii to cover

The California Bears need a win here today at the  UCLA to become Bowl eligible. With the Bruins off a big win vs USC last week   by a  38- 20 score Im betting the Bruins are vulnerable to a letdown vs a hungry side. Note : the the  Bruins  are  1-8-1 ATS at home after facing USC. . Cal Bears HC  Justin Wilcox is 13-5 ATS L/18 as a home dog.  Cal is 9-1 ATS in this series when UCLA is coming off a win and get the nod here in desperation mode. 

CALIFORNIA is 23-10 ATS L/33 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Kelly is 0-7 ATS  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of UCLA.

 UCLA is 13-26 ATS ( L/39 as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points.

NCAAF Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CALIFORNIA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival, with 17 or more total starters returning are 36-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on Cal Bears to cover

Jaguars have played well lately but are just  are 1-12 ATS following consecutive home chalk victories and  and 1-11 ATS away off consecutive home tilts.   I know Texas State is off a ugly loss last time out, but they have been very competitive this season and deserve respect here as pups. note: Texas State is  8-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. S ALABAMA is also  0-12 ATS L/12 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) .

TEXAS ST is 4-0 straight up against at home vs S ALABAMA since 1992.

Texas State to cover

Virginia upset Duke last week and are now in a huge emotional letdown spot vs instate rivals Vtech and very vulnerable .

Vtech is 11-1-1 ATS.in finales , Virginia is just 0-11 SU  L/11 when facing a Hokies  side with a better record on the season. VIRGINIA TECH is 32-16 ATS  L/48 as a road favorite of 7 points or less .

CFB road team (VIRGINIA TECH) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less  TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 89-52 ATS L/10 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Vtech to cover

James Madison had their undefeated season abruptly come to end vs App State last time and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot vs a Coastal Carolina squad that had a 5 game win streak end last time out. With  Coastal having a 7-4 record  they need a win  to get them to the Sun Belt title game vs. Troy and will be ready to play all out football here this week vs a  program ineligible to play post season football this season/  CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JAMES MADISON) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 62-31 ATS L/31 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Coastal Carolina to cover

 Wisconsin is Bowl eligible after last weeks win while Minnesota desperately needs a victory to get a Bowl invite. Im betting the home, side has the edge. I know the Gophers have not looked good of late, but it must be noted that HC Fleck is 9-1 SU/ATS when coming off a pair of losses and than playing at home.MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS  after being out-gained by 175 or more total yds 2 consecutive games. Fleck is 8-1 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of MINNESOTA. 

Minnesota to cover

Rice according to my power rankings sis the superior side here today and the line should be closer to -7 for the home side. 

RICE is 21-7 ATS   in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game.RICE is 27-10 ATS  L/27  in home games when playing against a sub par team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%. ). 

FLA ATLANTIC is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

RICE is 15-1 ATS L/16 in home games after out-gaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. 

CFB Home favorites (RICE) - in a game involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) after 7+ games are 44-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on the Rice to cover

This game has some huge implications as the winner will get to the College Football Playoff semifinals.   With Michigan QB  JJ Macarthy (ankle) less than 100%  and going  just  12-for-23 via pass including 1  interception   against the Terrapins” last week some doubts about his ability to play vs this type of prime time Ohio State D  loom large . The Buckeyes  have been solid dogs in the past in n Big Ten Title games cashing 10 straight times as pups.  .   We all know how good the /Wolverines D  as is evident by allowing 9 points and 253 yards per game. But the Buckeyes football program has won 15 of their L/18 SU  versus conference opposition that allow less than 10 ppg.  Wolverine iconic HC Harbaugh will once again not be on the sidelines for this big game-  which is not a good omen for a side that has cashed only 2 of  their L/ 9 opportunities  ATS vs undefeated conference opponents . 

OHIO ST is 8-1 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120  or lesws rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB road team (OHIO ST) - with a great scoring defense - allowing 14 or less points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-14 ATS L/.5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Ohio State to cover

Penn State continues to struggle against the top tier teams in the Big 10 losing to both Ohio State and Michigan this season. However, against the lower tier programs seem to always come to play in merciless fashion. Michigan State is a team that suddenly finds itself in the lower echilon of the conference and with nothing really to play for could easily come out flat here today and crushed by a frustrated Litany Lions side that will want to make a statement.PENN ST is 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking at + 27.1. 

Play on Penn State to cover

After a hard fought narrow win against Florida last time out, Im betting Missouri is vulnerable here today against Doctor Jekyll and Mr Hyde football team in Arkansas. Recent history also tells a story of Tigers futility as they are 0-5 ATS L/5   in Last Road Games,  and are   0-6 ATS away in their final tilts of the campaign. ARKANSAS is 4-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI  at home since 1992.

ARKANSAS is 25-10 ATS L/35 in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arkansas to cover

After starting their season 8-0 this Air Force side has looked flat of late, with their current 3 game losing streak starting with a ugly make no sense loss to Army. That embarrassing defeat  and deflating loss to their military foe has reverberated into two more losses.  The 2nd loss came in Hawaii and I can see this group just licking their wounds and just laying back on paradise island  and not preparing well for the Rainbow game where they looked lifeless or maybe hungover. Last weeks loss vs UNLV had them back on track despite of negative3 31-27 count.  Now this week against the Broncos Im expecting Air Force will fly high again and possibly even pull of the upset vs a side that they matchup well against. .  BOISE ST is 3-11 ATS after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons (which was the case last time out)Calhoun is 34-13 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of AIR FORCE.

Play on Air Force to cover

Utah State was smashed last week in a 35-point home loss to Boise State in embarrassing fashion and are now in a key bounce back situation vs New Mexico this week, as they desperately need a win to become bowl eligible. Utah State is  6-0 SU/ATS series run and according to my power rankings should be more than TD fav here. I know the Lobos took out Fresno State last week in. big upset win, but will now be in a letdown spot and very vulnerable vs a hungry side. Note: Lobos’ 0-7 SU L/7 in games coming off an upset win as a dog of 16 or more points and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 at home under those perimeters. 

Play on Utah State to cover

TCU has obviously not had a great season, especially considering their appearance the  CFB Playoff championship game last year. But with the experience on the sidelines, with the coaching staff and with the context of desperation in play here as the Frogs need a win to become Bowl eligible, Im betting on them putting alot of fight into this tilt and they won't go down without a fight. Note: The Frogs have covered their L/4 trips to Norman to play the Sooners and Im backing them to continue that run this Friday.

TCU is 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons

CFB road team (TCU) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU to cover

The Hawkeyes are the 2023 Big Ten West champs yet are being placed as dogs here vs a Nebraska side that despite of needing a win here badly, are not a football program that has a recent history of winning games clutch or otherwise. Hey I know Iowa has problems scoring , but their D, is outstanding and should give a pedestrian Nebraska offense a load of  problems here today in a game I doubt they deserve to be favorites in. Iowa has won 7 of the L/8 in this series, and must not be underestimated in the underdog role.

IOWA is 19-7 in their L/26  road game where the total is 42 or less have seen a +2 ppg diff .

CFB road team (IOWA) - with a great scoring defense - allowing 14 or less points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Iowa to cover

Its chilly in Massachusetts this time of year, and the Canes Cristobal and company may find their welcome from Boston College chilly as well. The Canes are off 3 hard fought losses, and doubt they have much gas left in the proverbial tank. Note :The Canes  are 0-5 ATS  L/5 as a favorite when coming off three losses-exact,. I know BC has not been a very consistent side this season, but at home have a recent history of being a solid dog especially at home covering 5 in q row as +8 or more pup. 

MIAMI is 1-8 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 0-8 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on BC to cover

Minnesota got caught looking ahead to this game with Ohio State this week, and were flattened by Purdue  . That was the Gophers second straight loss but there is good news from  a historical trends chart that I use. Notably Minnesota  is 9-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS losses,  and HC  Fleck is 5-0 ATS as a road dog of 25 or more points,  and has coincidentally covered  4-0 straight as a double-digit pup  versus undefeated  opposition. Meanwhile, Ohio State Im betting will be looking ahead to their battle with Michigan next week and could easily find themselves more concentrated on staying healthy and play with less enthusiasm than usual.

Fleck is 20-6 ATS  vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return as the coach of MINNESOTA.Fleck is 13-4 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached.MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points since 1992.

CFBroad team (MINNESOTA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 87-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on Minnesota to cover

The better team with the better record here is North Carolina vs a over rated Clemson side that should be. no more than a FG fav here based on home field advantage in Dearth Valley and not necessarily the talent gap. Mack Brown’s 16 -5- ATS  in his career as a underdog with the better record, with 13 SU wins during that span, including 5-0 S/UATS the last five tilts. North Carolina has won the stats battles this season in 9 of 10 games and get the nod here to cover the number.

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N CAROLINA) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on North Carolina to cover

Akron has lost all 6 of their road games this season by an average of 15 ppg, while their opponents Eastern Michigan have played their best football at Ryerson Stadium this season where they have won all 4 games. From a projection standpoint I have made the home side a -7 favorite based on some metrics the linesmakers are not using, thus giving us an edge by a FG over this offering, making this viable wagering opportunity laying points at what I perceive to be a discount . Eastern Michigan is 9-2 ATS L/11 meetings in this series and get the green light again. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (AKRON) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 6-63 L/10 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -19.4 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (AKRON) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 2-29 L/5 seasons for a 94% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at -19.5 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Eastern Michigan to cover

After a back forth high scoring battle against USC last week in a victory by a 52-42 count Im now looking for immediate offensive regression in a letdown spot by the Huskies who could easily find themsleves looking ahead to their big game against Oregon State next week. Huskies are 0-12 ATS  L/12 after facing USC and 0-4 ATS L/4 before facing Oregon State. Washington is 0-4-1 ATS L/10 as a conference home fav of 10 points or less. 

Utah is 5-2 ATS L/7 in this series. Utah is 9-1 ATS L/10 as a conference road dog of 10 points or less.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 63-26 ATS L/31 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play Utah to cover

Clemson got by Notre Dame last time out to snap a two game losing streak. The win did not come easily, as the Tigers offense stalled in the 2nd half . Now in an emotional letdown scenario Im betting the home side is vulnerable and Im betting covering this spread vs an improving Georgia Tech squad will be a difficult chore. Both these teams sport identical records and both are vying for a bowl appearance, so a closer than expected game is my projection.

Key is 9-2 ATS  as an underdog as the coach of GEORGIA TECH.

GEORGIA TECH is 8-1 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.GEORGIA TECH is 8-1 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA TECH is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA TECH is 10-2 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog 

CLEMSON is 0-6 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 3 season. Clemson is 1-5 ATS coming off a win. 

Play on Georgia Tech to cover

Texas Tech has owned this series winning 18 of the last 20 meetings   against Kansas, having been favored 18 times. In the  two games  they were the underdog, they notched wins  both times SU. Tech has also only failed to cover one time in this L/7 as a conference dog of 7 points or less and deserve respect here to cover behind a QB in QB Behren Morton, who, has thrown for 978 yards and 10 TDS in his L/5 games . 

CFB Home favorites (KANSAS) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 13-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas Tech to cover

Michigan enters this game with a perfect 9-0 record but from a historical standpoint teams with this  type of W/L stat  l are just 6-20-1 ATS when taking on a  side a with top tier defense,  that allow  20.5 ppg or less since 1982. With all the crap surrounding the Wolverines for cheating , a cloud now rests over this program, and could easily effect their play vs a motivated and very strong opponent playing at home. 

PENN ST is 9-0 ATS  after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.

CFB- Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points are 9-35 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG are 37-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs (PENN ST) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (80% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 38-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line (PENN ST) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. 

Play on Penn State to cover

BC has won 5 straight games but against what many would consider sub par competition. However, their opponent today Virginia Tech  has not exactly set the ACC on fire, and after being humiliated in Louisville last time out by a 34-3 count don't look like viable road favs especially considering they have lost all 4 of their away games this season and have averaged just 12 ppg on offense in turf games this season. Alot of pundits are looking for reasons to fade Boston College, but from my perspective this is a hard working well coached team with alot of fight and deserve respect as home pups. Note:CFB road team vs. the money line (VIRGINIA TECH) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are just 4-42 L/31 seasons for a go against 91% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Boston College to cover

 Huge revenge on board for Stoops as he gets ready to get redemption for a merciless  63-3  beatdown by Saban and company the last time these two programs met. With Alabama off what must be described as their best game of the season last time out vs LSU, a letdown scenario and regression must be expected . NoteL Saban is 2-7 ATS  as conference road favorite  of 3 or more points against a .500 or better side.  Meanwhile, Kentucky is 5-0 ATS L/5  as conference  home dogs of  4 pts or more and have cashed  their L/4 home finales of the season. After watching Alabama this season I cant but keep feeling this is not a 5 star group like other incarnations of this program, and that they could fail in their attempt at a SEC championship and god forbid be upset here today,No matter what happens I strongly believe we get the cover here today by backing Kentucky. 

Play on Kentucky to cover

It has mot been a very good campaign for Ball State overall as they have garnered only two wins so far, but they have been every competitive of late cashing 3 straight times, and playing with momentum and determination.  Meanwhile, N.Illinois from a recent historical trend line has not been a very good home favorite,N.Illinois  is 1-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and is 0-7 ATS   as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and are off a loss last time out, in game where their defense continually let them down allowing 37 points. Momentum resides with Ball State. Northern Illinois owns  the third-best passing defense in the country, but they struggle to stop the run as is evident by allowing 167 rushing yards per game and because of that Im betting they will have issues against duel threat QB Kelly and top tier  running back Marquez Cooper . 

The Cardinals defense has been very staunch of late allowing just 19.5 points per game in their last  four trips to the gridiron. They're 33rd against the rush and 68th against the pass and could easily give N. Illinois  QB Lombardi fits here tonight .

 N Neu is 14-5 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of BALL ST. 

Ball State has won three of the last four rivalry meetings with Northern Illinois . the average ppg diff of the last 5 Stalk events have been decided by 8 points or less.

Ball State to cover

LATE STEAM 

QB Mikey Keene is key here to what Im betting will be a fairly conclusive home win on a short line for Fresno State. Boise State has failed to cover their L/5 roadies. 

BOISE ST is 1-8 ATS  after a win by 21 or more points over the last 3 seasons.Fresno State has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 9% ROI) FRESNO ST is 34-18 ATS  L/52 after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.  

Fresno State to cover

The Huskies are 2-8 ATS  L/10 as road chalk and are getting a ,little to much respect here vs the  USC Trojans  who are  led by a HC Lincoln Riley .It must be noted that USCs HC  is a home pup for the first time in his career and Im sure despite of the lofty opposition will have his team ready to compete.  It must be noted that  Riley is 4-0 SU vs unbeaten conference opposition and 3-0 ATS as a conference-under dog. In his career Riley is also an amazing 40-3 ATS at home overall . From a historical perspective the Trojans are 9-2 ATS as underdogs vs Washington and Im betting they leave everything on the field today after what many will consider a down season for this football program. 

Riley is 21-9 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in all games he has coached .

CFB Home underdogs vs. the money line (USC) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (34 or more  PPG) after 7 or more games, after scoring 42 points or more last game are 34-22 L/31 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on USC to cover

Rice looked good last week against top tier group from Tulane losing by a 30-28 count but more importantly covering as DD underdogs . I know their opponent SMU has galloped away to a fine season, and will see post season action, but  the Owls must not be underestimated and at with a .500 record  need some more victories for a  decent Bowl invite and are motivated to play strong here. It must also be noted that Rice is 10-1 ATS L//11 in this  series  while losing 11 of their L/12 here in Houston, including 0-9 ATS over the last nine visits to this venue. Note: Rice is also 10-0 ATS L/10 after playing Tulane .

SMU is 17-32 ATS  in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more  yards/play.SMU is 6-20 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.SMU is 0-7 ATS  in road games after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Lashlee is 0-6 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games as the coach of SMU.

CFB Road favorites (SMU) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more  YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 81-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

Play on Rice to cover 

Clemson is never easy to play. against in Death Valley, and even against  a strong Florida State football program  had a chance to win late in the game via an ugly FG attempt that missed its mark The Tigers eventually lost in OT. I know the Tigers have not looked as powerful as past incarnations, but like I said this is a tough place to play and Notre Dame already exhibited a tendency to be over whelmed in a nasty environment at Louisville in a DD loss. So its not like the Irish are invincible. Yes, I know Dabo Sweeny and company has lost 2 straight, but this HC has proven resilient in the past and has only been defeated three times a row twice in his career- the last time was back in 2010. 

NOTRE DAME is 15-34 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 or less yards/play.

NOTRE DAME is 1-13 ATS L/14 off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more . 

CFBP home team vs. the money line (CLEMSON) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-4 L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors -so according to this long standing trend getting points here is viable wagering opportunity. 

Play on Clemson to cover

The visiting Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3) have had a tough go of it this season, after going to the National Championship game last year. The worst effort of the season came last time out against Kstate in a ugly 41-3 loss, however, now the Frogs will now be primed for big bounce back effort against their hosts Texas Tech  this week a side that has lost 2 Straight SU/ATS.  Note: 

Though he downplayed it, this will be the first trip back to Lubbock for TCU's Sonny Dykes as a head coach at the school where his father, Spike Dykes, won 82 games from 1986-99. This  game means alot to Dykes junior.

 TEXAS TECH is 0-6 ATS  after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Road underdogs (TCU) - average passing team (6.4-7.5 PYA) against an average passing defense (6.4-7.5 PYA) after 7+ games, after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-22 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on TCU

This is a tilt between two evenly matched MAC  bottom feeders, and is being lined like a late FG will win it. Im in complete agreement with the lines-makers and thus I recommend we take the points. 

CFB road team (KENT ST) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 82-40 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB home team vs. the money line (AKRON) - after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 14-27 L/10 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Kent State to cover

Buffalo after a slow start have progressively improved and have now won 3 of their L/4 overall while, covering 4 of their L/5. Early season losses  against Wisconsin and Liberty were not unexpected , but the Buffalos still were fairly competitive and did not not look out of place. Also a a win vs  pretty good Louisiana Lafayette showed me this Buffalo team deserves my respect here against their MAC rivals the Toledo Rockets tonight.  The Rockets have won 7 straight but have misfired in 6 of those games ATs.   TOLEDO is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS  in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

CFB road team (BUFFALO) - after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 86-43 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Buffalo to cover

Arizona is surprising some of the pundits this season as they are still in Bowl contention with a 4-3 record. and will be very motivated to play hard here today.  Meanwhile, Oregon State despite of a solid 6-1 record have had a few issues away from home , and  were out gained in both away games this season  and are just 2-5 ATS L/7 as PAC 12 road chalk . Beavers are also just  1-7-1 ATS L/9 as road favorites of fewer than seven points. Advantage Arizona .

CFB Road favorites (OREGON ST) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 25-55 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to cover

Oklahoma state just completed a trifecta of underdog winners, but now they are in a vulnerable situation after those hard fought affairs , as they look ahead to a Bedlam battle rivalry tilt  against Oklahoma next week. I know Cincinnati has not looked all that consistent this season, but the talent base is still there and they are more than capable of being competitive here today vs a side that is 1-9 ATS  off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog with Gundy as  the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.( Cowboys beat W.Virginia by a 38-24 count last time out. 

Satterfield is 10-2 ATS L/12 in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers in all games he has coached . 

CINCINNATI L/11 against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a ppg diff of - 0.4 . 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 92-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two teams with 1.25 or less turnovers/game forced, after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 57-27 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate.

Play on the Cincinnati Bearcats to cover

I know Arkansas State is no longer a Sunbelt power house, but the way UL Monroe is playing Im not sure they should be favs in this tilt.  The Warhawks have lost 5 straight games most of which were not pretty watch. On the flispide, Arkansas State is off two consecutive losses vs Coastal Carolina and Troy, but after facing those viable sides, playing this group will feel like a walk in the park.  Its also important to note that Arkansas State is 13-0 SUATS  L/13 vs ULM.LA MONROE is 3-12 ATS L/15 as a home favorite of 3 points or less and has failed to cover 13 of their L/14 overall as conference home chalk. 

CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA MONROE) - slow starting team - outscored by 7+ PPG in the first half, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 40-84 L/31 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arkansas State to cover

Tulane is a  top 25 ranked team but Rice must not be under estimated in this ability to competitive here this Saturday afternoon at home where they average 39.3 ppg in offensive production. 

RICE is 14-1 ATS L/15 in home games after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game (  Crushed Tulsa 42-10 last time out, outgaining them by 222 yards)

RICE is 16-3 ATS )n home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival since 1992.

RICE is 30-16 ATS L/46 in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better.

Bloomgren is 7-0 ATS  in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of RICE.

CFB home team vs. the money line (RICE) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (390 to 440 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-3 L/10 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rice to cover

The Georgia Southern Eagles host the Georgia State Panthers as in-state Sun Belt action this Thursday night.  Georgia State enters this game with a  6-1 record , including 3-1 in Sun Belt play, and enter this tilt on a two-game win streak. Note:GEORGIA ST is 10-1 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons and are-9-1 ATS  in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

GEORGIA ST is 6-0 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 2 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

Georgia Southern at 5-2  is fine team playing at home but Georgia State according to my power rankings is one of the most under rated teams in the nation and deserve respect .Georgia State has emerged victorious in the last three meetings  between these teams and Im once again history repeats itself in this spot play. 

Play on Georgia State to cover

Jacksonville State according to my own projections should be closer to 10 point road chalk here, so getting them at this number makes for a viable wagering opportunity. 

Jacksonville State's powerful run game and defensive stopping units have a huge edge over a FIU team that is struggling to score  behind a freshman QB. It must be noted that the Gamecocks rank 50 th in the nation in defensive HAVOC , so FIUs pedestrian offensive line and freshman QB should have their hands full tonight.   Despite of being an efficient defensive group the Panthers  just do not matchup well vs  Jacksonville  States grinding productive ground attack.  Remember this is a FIU squad that is 1-4 in conference play with their only victory coming in OT vs winless Sam Houston State. 

FLA INTERNATIONAL is 0-7 ATS L/7  as a home underdog of 7.5 to 10 points . 

Play on Jacksonville State to cover

One of if not the biggest wins in the history of the Washington Huskies football program took place  last week vs /Oregon and  will undoubtedly see this group in a huge letdown scenario vs Arizona State this week making them vulnerable. 

Washington has failed to cover 7 of their L/9 after playing Oregon , and ASU is 15-1 ATS L/16 in this series. Arizona State has also on failed to cover one time in their L/7 as conference of more than 17 points.

WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

CFB Underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (ARIZONA ST) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses, in October games are 46-17 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on ASU to cover

Army (2-4) fell at home to Troy last Saturday, 19-0. It was the first time that Army was shutout at home at Michie Stadium since 2003 and you can bet this fearless group will be ready to bounce back this week with a much better showing.  Note:ARMY is 18-6 ATS L/24  as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points .  

Meanwhile,LSU (5-2) enters with the second-best total offense in the nation averaging 550.4 yards per game and also ranking third in points per game (45.3) but could easily be caught looking ahead to their battle against Alabama up next. : Military schools that are  dogs of 14 or more points are 7-0 ATS versus the  SEC dating back more than 40 seasons.  Monken is 15-5 ATS  in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of ARMY.

ARMY is 6-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARMY is 25-9 ATS after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored since 1992.

Play on Army to cover

TCU is 11-2 in Big 12 regular-season games under HC  Dykes., including  are 7-1 in road contests . The Oct. 7 loss at Iowa State snapped a seven-game road winning streak that was tied for second-longest in the nation so thye are side to be respected when going on the road especially when getting points.Last year's 38-28 win  in Fort Worth by KState snapped a three-game losing streak to the Wildcats. But now you can bet Dykes and company have revenge on board, and I wont be surprised if they pull off the SU victory behind their uptrending QB redshirt freshman Josh Hoover who looked excellent and poised vs BYU last week in a big 44-11 DD win. 

Take the points with TCU

 Hawaii lost a 41-34 game at the  hands of San Diego State last  Saturday. Hawaii gained 102 more yards on the day than their opponent and still lost but are getting more cohesive as this season progresses. QB Brayden Schager, who threw for 427 yards and three touchdown looks to have a great deal of momentum on hiss ides and deserves respect here in this spot play. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (NEW MEXICO) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 4-23 L/31 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate. (

LATE STEAM - Hawaii to cover

Texas after a loss to Oklahoma last time out, enter into this frey with extra rest . Im sure the Longhorns are still however in a letdown mode after that heart breaking loss, and that could easily hamper them against an explosive opponent that has lots of back door capabilities. TEXAS is 0-6 ATS  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons. TEXAS is also 0-4 ATS L/4 after taking on the Sooners. TEXAS is 1-5 ATS L/6 off a rest/ bye week. 

Sarkisian is 4-13 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 in all games he has coached since 1992.

TEXAS has also failed to cover  as away favs  of more than 12 points in 6 of their L/7 opportunities. ,  Houston is  8-0 ATS L/8 as dogs of more than 13 points. 

Play on Houston to cover

Ohio State has won six straight in the series and 10 of the past 11. Penn State coach James Franklin is 1-8 vs. the Buckeyes and has lost all four games in Ohio Stadium by an average of more than 11 ppg. Penn State has not won in Columbus since 2011 and Im betting they wont turn the trick here this week.More importantly I project  a TD or more win by the home side. PENN ST is 3-19 ATS L/21 vs. incredible defensive teams who give up 12 or less points/game. Note:The Buckeyes' pass defense is fourth (154.3) in the country. The defense  is third in average points allowed (9.7) and seventh in total defense (263.5).

PENN ST is 7-19 ATS  in road games after allowing 6 points or less last game.

Day is 12-2 ATS in October games as the coach of OHIO ST.

.CFB  Home favorites vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or better ) are 41-4  L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in +13.7. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (OHIO ST) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 29-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for a average ppg diff of +13.3 clicking in. 

Play on the Ohio State to cover

Marshall lost their 2nd straight game at Georgia State this past Saturday after starting their season at 4-0.Meanwhile James Madison continued their undefeated run at 6-0 with a huge DD win vs Georgia Southern last time out . According to my power rankings  despite the slight discrepancy in records -both these sides are evenly matched, with home field advantage favoring a Marshall side that is 3-0 at home this season, and long term have cashed 60% of their L/30 home games as underdogs dating back to 2002 season. Overall Marshall has 22-8 L/30 SU at home and have won 5 straight dating back to last season as hosts including a win vs Sunbelt perennial App State. Advantage Marshall 

CFB  home team vs. the money line (MARSHALL) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80% or ,more ) playing a team with a winning record are 36-6 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 30-9 ATS L/31 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARSHALL) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Marshall to cover

Mew Mexico State according to my projections are precarious road favs here at UTEP considering  they are just. 3-17 SU in their last 20 games on the road.  I know the Aggies (4-3) are getting alot of accolades this season, and have a top tier QB under center Pavia has a QB rating of 166.9, ranking second in CUSA and 18th in FBS., but it must be noted that  Opponents are averaging 204.7 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of just  89.4 when facing UTEP.

The Miners ,must not be underestimated and have momentum on their sides after a road win at Florida International last week. One key feature to UTEP is in their special teams department with their punter Sloan who registered a 64 yard punt last week, and has the ability to quickly flip field position in favor of his team. Note:UTEP is 8-1 ATS  vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

UTEP is 3-0 in Wednesday regular-season contests and Im betting has a great opportunity to repeat in this spot play vs a visitor that does not have a history of respectable road performances.

Play on UTEP to cover

Miami enters this game with a  4-1 record after a loss last week to Georgia Tech, while Carolina enters at 5-0. The Canes may have fell asleep  at the proverbial wheel looking forward to this game , but now Im betting they will be wide awake here vs the Heels and ready to perform. 

 North Carolina is  1-14 ATS when coming off a conference home tilt, including 0-9 ATS as the favorite.

N CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival since 1992. Brown is 1-11 ATS off a home win against a conference rival as the coach of N CAROLINA.

CFB road team (MIAMI) - after allowing 250 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 32-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after out-gaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Miami FL to cover 

Notre Dame after a ugly effort vs a fired up Louisville Cardinal last week will be primed to get back on track vs a Trojans side that is exhibiting some weak defensive deficiencies as is evident by allowing 41 points in back to back games. What happened last week in Louisville the Irish I think was attributed to them not being able to meet the motivation factors needed after their heart breaking 17-14  loss to Ohio State the week before. 

USC is 5-15 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons

NOTRE DAME is 15-4 ATS  vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992. USC is 1-11 ATS in road games off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite since 1992.

USC is 1-14 ATS versus non-conference revenge, and a nasty 2-15 ATS as pups of less than 8 points and a just 2-12 ATS in non-conference road tilts. 

Notre Dame to cover

The Wildcats  were upset last week in Stillwater against Oklahoma State but will now in a big bounce back situation vs Texas Tech this week. I know Texas Tech is off a big win last time out vs Baylor . Note:. K-State is 11-1 ATS when coming off a SUATS defeat. and  11-1 ATS following a double-digit loss. Meanwhile, .Texas Tech is 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in the last six meetings of this series and are fade material vs what my own power ranking suggest is the superior side. Also the Wildcats will be coming into the game with a little extra rest and their energy levels will be high as thyey look for redemption. 

Play on Kansas State 

Louisville is in a huge emotional letdown situation after smashing Notre Dame last week in all out effort. Needless to say they are vulnerable here on the road in Pittsburgh this week, against a sub par side that still however boasts the best run defense in the nation and must not be underestimated. 

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - off 2 consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Pittsburgh 7-2 ATS L/9 in this series vs the Cardinal. 

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

Memphis lost a 38-28 decision on the road to Tulane last season and now have revenge on board for what is a must win situation tonight at home since the Tigers will play 4 of their L/6 games on the road after tonight. The Tigers only loss this season came by a TD deficit vs Missouri and they must not be underestimated in their abilities. It must be noted Memphis is 8-1 ATS L/9 at home as a underdog. 

Memphis  is 10-1 SU at home in this series L/11 meetings. 

CFB Home underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team ( 80%)or more  playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Memphis Tigers to cover

West Virginia is on a nice 4-0 ATS run but it must be noted they lost the stats battles in their last 2 wins both as underdogs and are being over rated here tonight vs what can be an explosive offensive foe in Houston.  Note:CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover

Florida International has revenge on board for a ugly 40-6  road loss last season to UTEP and Im betting they will be prepared to get pay back here tonight. 

Florida International have proved they have improved this season already notching 3 wins vs , Uconn , N.Texas and Maine. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 straight up against UTEP since 1992 at home. Utep has lost 4 straight snd are winless in their L/ 5 tries against FBS teams, also going 0-5 against the spread (ATS). UTEP is winless in 3 road tilts this season, losing the last 2 games by 21 or more points. 

UTEP has lost 11 of their L/12 road games.

UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.UTEP is 0-6 ATS   after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 season.

Play on FIU to cover

.I know Louisville is getting alot of accolades this season, but the harsh truth is they are a level or two below the visiting Irish. Louisville in my opinion is not a national contender while Notre Dame is this season which was obvious in how they handled Ohio State, despite of their last second loss. Just one thing, I must mention and that is  Im not bashing the Cardinal they are a fine looking speedy team, but the Irish are just a superior side. Also it must be noted that the Cardinal are 1-3 in the stats battles against FBS sides despite of being 5-0 this season. Cards passing D, is also allowing an average 7.4 YPP, which is not a good omen against a arm like QB Hartman and his accomplished WRs. 

 The Fighting Irish have owned the ACC in the  recent  past from a betting perspective going a perfect 10-0 SUATS L/10   and are  6-0 SUATS with HC Marcus Freeman on the sidelines  with the  average winning ppg  diff clicking in at  +19.5 PPG.

Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here and for the Iriish to come out of this with a conclusive victory and more importantly a cover. 

CFB home team (LOUISVILLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Notre Dame to cover

The Cougars star  junior quarterback Cam Ward is really something to watch and must be respected . He has 14 TDs and no interceptions and leads the nations 2nd best offensive passing attack. The Cougars a team averaging 45 points per game,  and are live dogs here in my betting opinion vs a UCLA  side that does not look as fluid or a consistent as the Cougars.  Note: Kelly is 4-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game as the coach of UCLA . Advantage Washington State 

Washington States football program is  17-0 ATS L/17  in games following a SU underdog victory  .

CFB home team (UCLA) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in weeks 5 through 9 are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (UCLA) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games are 6-26 L/30 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB toad underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (440 or more  YPG), after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 35-12 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington State to cover

Buffalo has momentum after garnering a road win in OT last time out at Akron. BUFFALO is 16-6 ATS  in home games off a win against a conference rival. Meanwhile, Central Michigan despite of a 3-2 record this season, has been far from dominant with all  3 of their wins ending in 4 point or less margin differentials. Considering the Chips are 0-7 ATS L/7  as favs vs sub .500 sides like the Bulls it will not be a difficult proposition for me to take points here with the home side. C MICHIGAN is  also just 1-8 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Buffalo to cover

Last season the Longhorns smashed the the Sooners by a 49-0 count and now Oklahoma has big time revenge on board. It must be noted 5-0 teams like Texas going against an avenging foe are just 23-43-2 ATS since 1980. Texas is also 0-9 ATS L/9 on the road vs conference side with revenge like the Sooners. 

The Longhorns are  1-5 SU all time  when in. a battle of undefeated teams.  

TEXAS is 9-22 ATS L/31 in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. 

According to my projections these teams are evenly matched thus getting this many points is a blessing in disguise. I know   Mathew McConaughey might disagree but Im sticking to my guns here and taking the points with the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl today.

CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game, after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Oklahoma to cover

Everyone and his dog now is up an arms against the viability of this Illinois team after a gutless effort against Purdue last time out in a ugly 44-10 loss as road chalk. HC Bret Bielema is now officially on the hot seat after being the darling of the Illinois fan base coming to this season. I know alot of ppl have lost faith in Illini, but Im going to actually back them against a Nebraska  program that just cant get over the hump and maybe even more lacking in the respect category.

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are just  42-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at +22.5 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

CFB Road underdogs vs. the money line (NEBRASKA) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-62 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate with the qverqge ppg diff clicking in at -19.9 which easily qualifies in this ATS offering. 

Play on Illinois to cover

Im betting Western Michigans Jalen Buckley,  who has registered 4 TDS already this season  while averaging  125 YPG will be key to the Broncos finding the win column. Considering Ball State just cant move the ball inconsistently and constantly making bad reads on offense as is evident by a  5  interceptions and just  3 TDs.   Ball State is losing the stats battles  an average of 172 YPG including allowing a whopping  40 or more points in their 3 ugly losses. 

CFB  Road underdogs vs. the money line (BALL ST) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 4-60 L/10 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Western Michigan 

Texas Tech lost West Virginia last time out on the road by a 20-14 count and will now be in bounce back mode at home here today. The Raiders are just 1-3 this season, but in a specific outing against top 10 Oregon they looked like they matched up well and only lost by a 38-30 count and must be respected here against a defensively deficient  Houston side that has already lost to Rice and TCU  while allowing 43 and 36 points respectively. TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS  off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 12.7 . 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Texas Tech) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Texas Tech to cover

South Floridas offensive line is horrendous already allowing 19 sacks and that will be their downfall today vs a physical Navy front 7. On the flip-side the Middies Im betting will plough through the Bulls defense via their vaunted one way ground attack. Also after a extra week of rest and now playing at home Im betting we see  Navy at their very best.

NAVY is 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more  yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NAVY is 13-4 ATS ( against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Blowing a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter to a Northwestern program that was on the ropes is arguably the worst loss of head coach P.J. Fleck's time in Minnesota. This kind of embarrassing loss will have Fleck prepared to coach a big game against a lower tier side. Getting off the hot seat is of prime importance and getting the Gopher fans to lay down their pitchforks  I believe Fleck has the personnel to get it done this week in convincing fashion after last weeks gutless sleepy effort. Note: UL Lafayette has allowed an average of 36 ppg so far this season in what looks to be a wide open type of game plan. Im betting that wont work well against this power 5 opponent. 

LA LAFAYETTE is 0-9 ATS  after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. (they beat Mac side Buffalo last week in a 45-38 shootout) Regression expected. 

CFB Home favorites vs. the money line (Minnesota ) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in the first half of the season are 38-1 L/5 seasons for a 98% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +23.2 ppg which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Minnesota to cover

Penn State is the real deal and in my opinion a true national contender, and my thought s were reinforced after watching them slam dunk Iowa 31-0. With that said,  Im betting they will be wide awake here knowing their opponent Northwestern came back form a 31-10 deficit in the 4th quarter last time out for a miraculous 34-31 win vs Minnesota. From a talent and coaching  perspective this line does not do the discrepancies justice, and laying this may points is not a problem for me. Note: Penn State when coming off consecutive SUATS victories , is 13-0-1 ATS in conference tilts. Also NW is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS after a SU victory. 

Play on Penn State to cover 

Im betting Kentucky has finally arrived as a SEC side to be feared and not because of their talent but their grit  . I know Florida has the bigger brand name and following, but the Wildcats proved recently they can handle the Gators as was evident last season when they took out the Gators on the road and also ended a 14 game home losing streak in this series back in 2021.  FLORIDA is 2-10 ATS   off a home win over the last 3 seasons.

The Wildcats defense has forced multiple takeaways in three of the four tilts and has been solid  against the run and hasn’t allowed anyone to record 100 yards on the ground. Florida Im betting will be forced to be more one dimensional and despite of some good results this season, are in for a more formidable experience here today against a gritty Kentucky football program that plays with pride and passion. 

KENTUCKY is 14-4 ATS  in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

CFB home team vs. the money line (KENTUCKY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half are 39-2  L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Kentucky Wildcats 

Both BYU and Cincinnati are off losses last week, but Im betting the Bearcats wont be able to bounce back as easily as they were physically smothered and battered by the Oklahoma D, only scoring 6 points and when nearing the  red zone looked completely lost. In the Cougars loss to Kansas BYU ran more plays for more yards than the Jayhawks but turnovers proverbially  killed them. 

This week in this matchup Im betting on a BYU D, that has looked good against the run to slow down the Beracats attack, and on the flipside for the potent Cougars passing attack to do well vs a Cincinnati D, that does better against the run than the pass. I know BYU has had a tremendous amount of trouble running the ball, but their passing attack behind Slovis has been explosive and that Im betting will be key to them getting the cover here at home. 

CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons

CFB road team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 3-27 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against conversion rate for bettors.