NFL Super Bowl Sunday San Francisco 49ers Money Line -120 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET - The dominant number on the Super Bowl, as of 13 hours before kickoff, is the 49ers at a -2. Right now there is also some -1.5 out there at higher juice and even some -1 at even higher juice. That said, the best value the way I see it is grabbing the money line available at as low of a price as -120 at the time of this write-up. When it comes to the Super Bowl, so much information is already out there. The key reasons for my pick are truly all tied into my contrarian aspect when it comes to sports and, in particular the NFL! No sport is more publicly bet than the NFL and especially when it comes to the Super Bowl. Now ask yourself...who is going to be picking Purdy over Mahomes at QB here? Who is going to pick Shanahan over Reid at head coach here? Why on earth is San Francisco favored when you consider the recent playoff dominance of the Chiefs as this is their 4th Super Bowl in 5 years? Exactly! This line to me is telling everyone to go ahead and back the Chiefs and Mahomes and Reid in their 4th Super Bowl in 5 years. It is basically inviting Kansas City money! My money here, in typical contrarian fashion, is on the Niners in this one! For one thing, the Chiefs did beat the Eagles in the SB last season. It is hard to repeat as champions in this league. The last time it happened was nearly 20 years ago with the Patriots in 2004 and 2005. It is not like teams have not had chances either! In the last 10 years this will be the FOURTH time a team has had a chance to repeat and NONE of the past 3 accomplished this tough task! So many things have to break right for a team to win it all. The Chiefs are a great team but so too are the 49ers and only one team's luck can run out here. Both teams are solid defensively and in the trenches but SF does have the better ground game on offense and that will help limit Mahomes and Company as the Niners can chew up clock on offense and keep the KC offense off the field for longer stretches! Also, Purdy is up to the task here as Mr Irrelevant (last pick in the draft) and is a much better player than many realize! He and McCaffrey will be the stars of this game as well as a 49ers defense that comes in a bit under-valued due to recent performance. This SF D will surprise here after KC embarrassed them in the most recent match-up last season in a 44-23 Chiefs win. This Kansas City offense this season is simply not at the same level as last season. This 49ers team had an 800+ yardage edge on offense this season compared to the Chiefs. That included a 600 yard edge on the ground. Also, if you eliminate QB rushing yards from that the edge is about 900 yards on the ground in looking at the regular season stats of these teams. That is an average of over 50 yards per game on the ground! Teams that can run well and chew up clock can win the big games like this. Finally it is the Niners as Champs for the first time in nearly 30 years as once again a team fails for the 4th time in last 10 years in terms of a chance to repeat! SAN FRANCISCO -120

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers -7 vs Detroit Lions @ 6:30 ET - I know that the Niners barely got by the Packers last week and we had Green Bay right here and were not surprised by the tight outcome. At the same time, the Lions beat Tampa Bay and covered last week as they won by 8 points. However, the Packers were very hot at the end of the season and the Buccaneers were not. The point is that SF was tested more last week than the Lions have been in this post-season. Keep in mind, the Lions game the week before was a 1 point Wild Card round win over the Rams but LA outgained Detroit by nearly 100 yards in that one. Now the Lions will be playing on the road for the first time in 4 weeks! I respect Detroit and I respect Goff at QB but he has a history of struggling badly against the Niners. Also, San Francisco has a big edge here as they have been at home all month long and remain home for this game. The Niners got destroyed by the Eagles in last year's NFC Championship Game. They make up for that ugly result here! They will not let a chance like this get away again. Also, the Lions pass defense has been struggling for quite some time and we know what Purdy is capable of under center. Other than one horrible game against the Ravens in December, he has been consistent and strong for much of this season. Yes, we must lay a TD here but all of the Niners regular season wins were by at least 7 points and 11 of the 12 victories were by a double digit margin! Last week's tight win over Green Bay merely serving to give us line value. We have the better defense and the situational advantage and line value here. 3 of the 4 Lions road losses this season were by at least 7 points and this one will be too! I respect Detroit and they are getting close but they are not quite there yet. This is the 49ers year to get to the Super Bowl after last year's debacle in Philadelphia. Now they are home and are the more balanced team in this match-up. 10* SAN FRANCISCO -7

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44 or 44.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 3 ET - The Ravens, not including their regular season finale when they rested guys, have won 11 of 12 games! In those dozen games they have averaged scoring 33.4 ppg! As for the Chiefs, in their last 4 road games (not including regular season finale as they rested guys), they have scored an average of 26 ppg. We have solid line value with this total in the mid-40s when you consider the recent trending of these two teams. I definitely respect both defenses but Lamar Jackson is such a weapon for the Ravens and Baltimore is going to move the ball well (again!) here at home in this one! However, how can you not respect a Chiefs offense that continues to do enough to once again find themselves in the AFC Championship Game for the 6th straight season! Keep in mind, if each team just gets into the low 20s here we have ourselves a winner and both teams have been doing this all season long. Look for both teams to be aggressive here on offense as Ravens will take advantage of having dual threat Jackson and a solid ground game while the Chiefs aerial attack did produce over 200 yards passing in frigid conditions at Buffalo last week. Also, over 250 yards passing for KC the prior week in even colder conditions in Kansas City. The weather in Baltimore will be cool but not cold and winds should not top 10 mph and rain would be light. Speaking of light, both offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard here and that is what I expect to see in this one! 10* OVER 44 or 44.5 in Baltimore

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET - Amazingly Mahomes has 15 career NFL playoff games and 12 were at home and 3 were neutral site (because they were Super Bowl games). That said, this is his first road start in the playoffs which is quite amazing. Now certainly I don't expect this to be a huge impact for a guy with the experience he has but it still not ideal as this is his first ever playoff game - including Super Bowls of course - where almost no one will be cheering for him in the entire stadium! The Bills are hungry and, for Josh Allen, home field does matter. He had an 11-11 TD-INT ratio on the road this season but an 18-7 TD-INT ratio in home starts. Long-term Allen has fantastic numbers at home and he and the Bills love playing here. The Chiefs have been in the Super Bowl 3 of the last 4 seasons but there is a different feel with this team this season. I am not saying either one of these teams would get by the Ravens next week to reach the Super Bowl (we will cross that bridge when we get there!) but I am saying that Bills are very hungry for their chance finally AND this KC team just has not been as dynamic on offense this season. The Bills are scoring an average of 28 points last 8 games including 6 straight wins and not a single loss in regulation. Both teams are strong defensively but Chiefs averaging only 20.6 points last 10 games NOT even including the season finale in which Gabbert was at QB for them. The last 10 games that INCLUDED Mahomes the Chiefs went just 5-5 SU and all 5 losses by at least 3 points so lay the 2.5 here with the home team! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 3 ET - Detroit is 7-1 SU last 8 games at home and last week's 1 point win was a rare exception of a very tight win as their last 11 victories overall had all been by at least 3 points. Now I know we are laying 6 points in this particular match-up versus the Bucs. However, Tampa Bay has seen 6 of their 8 losses this season come by at least 6 points. Though TB ended up being able take advantage of a dysfunctional Eagles team last week that wrapped the season in ugly fashion, they now face a Lions team that is surging at the right time and I really like their head coach as well. He has the respect of this locker room and that goes a long way in sports. Now, back to the Bucs, note that entering last week's game, though the Bucs started this season 3-1 they then went 6-7 the rest of the way. Not only that, TB went just 1-5 against playoff teams in the regular season! That included a TB loss to the Lions and that game was at Tampa and Detroit won by 14 and won the yardage battle by over 100 yards! The Lions have the better ground game in this match-up and will be able run against the Bucs here and that establishes the passing attack as it makes TB respect the ground game. Keep in mind Tampa Bay just beat the defending NFC Champion Eagles and now they are having to go on the road on short rest and face a team that is worlds better than the Eagles are right now. This sets up well for the Buccaneers to get their doors blown off here. Lay it! 10* DETROIT (-)

NFL Saturday Green Bay Packers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - This line is in the range of -10 on San Francisco as of 11 hours before kickoff. While I certainly have a lot of respect for the 49ers they also finished the season 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS L5 home games. The point is they tend to be a little over-valued here at home and I feel strongly that is the case again here. In this case they are facing a Packers team that finished the season on a 6-2 SU run and now, including playoffs, it is 7-2 SU last 9 games! Including post-season, Green Bay played 18 games this season and only 3 of the 17 games were a GB loss by more than 4 points! Surprisingly all 3 of those ugly defeats came at home! The Packers, including the win at Dallas last week, are only 5-5 SU on the road but all 5 losses were by 4 or less points and those 5 defeats averaged just a 2.6 point margin. In other words, in this game San Francisco is being asked to do something no other team has managed yet this season. The Niners are being asked to beat the traveling Packers by a spread greater than 4 points which makes this a 10-0 YTD factor as no team has done that this season! I also like taking big dogs in ugly weather games and rain and possibly wind as well could factor into this game. The Packers, as well as Jordan Love, are peaking at the right time. Look for this to be a great game decided by a one-score margin. The confidence level of the Pack is sky-high right now and the Niners could be a little rusty as the play their first meaningful game in quite some time. Sometimes teams lose momentum in cases like this and this GB team absolutely believe in itself and their run on that 10-0 YTD factor is all set for 11 in a row. 10* GREEN BAY (+)

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans @ 4:30 ET - The Ravens regular season finale was a low-scoring battle with the Steelers two weeks ago but Baltimore rested a lot of regulars in that one. Prior to that game, which certainly deserves an asterisk, the Ravens were on a 10-1 run and had scored an average of 34 points in the 10 games in that stretch that followed their win over in London. The point being that if the Ravens just hit their average here of 34 points and they win by about 10 points (current line on this game is Baltimore by 10) then this game will total in the upper 50s! I am not saying we get there but I am pointing out the line value we have on this total! The Texans have scored an average of 27 points last 5 games. I know they had defensive TDs in their playoff win over Cleveland last week but they did see Stroud throw for nearly 300 yards. This is a solid running team too. I like the Texans to score well here as they are a very confident group right now but they will not be able to stop the dangerous offensive attack of the Ravens. With the running threat of Lamar Jackson a constant worry for defenses, Baltimore is going to give this team nightmares in this one. This should fly over the total as a result and I like the fact the total has ticked down a little from the mid-40s to lower-40s on this one. Take advantage of the added value. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Everyone is talking about the demise of the Eagles and, understandably so, as they as fell apart late in the season. However, with adversity can come opportunity. This is the Eagles opportunity to seize the moment and there is still a ton of talent on this team as well as the heart of a Champion. Yes, they were NFC Champions last season. For starters lets talk about the fact that the Bucs started this season 3-1 but then went 6-7 the rest of the way. Not only that, TB went just 1-5 against playoff teams this season! But wait a second, you are saying Tampa has home field here so that is a key factor? Well, guess what, the Bucs 2 home games versus playoff teams were both losses by 14 points and that included one to these Eagles. Philly ran overall them in that win and I expect them to return to that physical display up front and dominate and open up rushing lanes to again gash TB on the ground. You saw what the Lions ground game did against the Cowboys yesterday. This will be similar. Ground attacks can win playoff games. Now I am well aware that AJ Brown is out for Philly but that is what is keeping this line down and I know Hurts has a finger injury. However, it seems like a key Buccaneers injury is being ignored because of this. Baker Mayfield has a rib issue and ankle injury. He was hobbling around against the Panthers last week and then barely practiced this week. Hurts has the playoff factor edge and better health in comparison with Mayfield. Hurts was huge in last year's postseason while Mayfield only had one post-season and his first start was good but his second start helped eliminate his team from the playoffs. Look for a similar result here. The Bucs went 1-5 against playoff teams and the Eagles went 6-2 against playoff teams this year. For all the doom and gloom about Philly they are still the better team in this match-up and, after an ugly finish to the season - unlike the Cowboys, the Eagles know how to turn things up to a higher notch when the post-season rolls around. This should be a road rout ladies and gentlemen. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:30 ET - I said it all season long that the Steelers are the worst winning team in a long time in this league. They kept getting outgained but yet winning game after game. They finished the season going 4-4 last 8 games after one of the luckiest 6-3 starts in the history of this league. Pittsburgh will be exposed here on Monday by a Bills team that is coming on strong at the end of the season. Buffalo is not an easy place to play and losing Watt also hurts this Steelers team. By the way, in that 4-4 finish to the season, the Steelers only win over a playoff team was when they faced the Ravens in the season finale but Baltimore had nothing to play for and rested guys. So now a Steelers anemic offense led by Mason Rudolph faces a Bills offense led by Josh Allen who had an 18-6 TD-INT ratio in home games this season prior to throwing a pick in Buffalo's final home game. Rudolph has a 5-6 TD-INT ratio dating back to the latter part of the 2019 season when he is on the road. Though this line at -10 might seem high to some the fact is that the Bills home field edge might be closer to 4 points than 3 and that means this line is effectively set at a -6 on a neutral field. But is Buffalo a team that is only 6 points better than this over-rated Steelers team that -outstatted week after week this season - might be the worst 10-7 team in NFL history? Not in my book, no way! The Bills are at least 2 TD better on a neutral field. Look for the hosts to win this by about 17! Lay the 10 points here. 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday Detroit Lions (-) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The Rams have been on a hot run to close out the season but this Lions team is also playing very well and they are at home and they are very well-coached which is certainly a key when you are facing a well-coached Rams team. Detroit is coming off a huge season and their only loss since December 10th was a tough 1-point loss at Dallas in which it looked like they had the game won. The Lions were robbed by the refs in that game at the end as was well-documented. In this match-up I like the fact that Detroit is the better running team and also is better defensively against the run. The Rams are certainly solid too but the edges here for the Lions in the ground game on both sides of the ball can be a key in a playoff setting. Also both home teams got big wins in yesterday's opening wild card day and laying a -3 at home is a solid line value for a Lions team whose last 11 wins were by at least 3 points. All 7 Rams losses were by at least 3 points this season. The Rams were just 4-4 SU in last 8 games on the road. Lions went 6-1 SU L7 games at home. So if you like the Lions to win the game SU at home you can also see why we have ATS value with this low line available at a -3 as of 8 hours before kickoff. Lay it! 10* DETROIT (-) 

NFL Sunday Green Bay Packers +7 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - The Cowboys have had an amazing regular season at home but take a closer look at the games. When they faced the Rams, LA was in the midst of a disastrous 3-6 start to the season. LA went 7-1 the rest of the way. When they faced the Eagles, Philly was shell-shocked off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers that began a season-ending 1-5 run. As for wins over other respectable teams, the win over the Seahawks was by just 6 points and the win over the Lions was by just a single point. Anyone who watched those two games knows Dallas very easily could (should) of lost both games outright! As for their other 4 home wins this season, those came against teams with a combined record of 21-47 this season! Per the above, the Cowboys 8-0 home record is a little over-valued. They are not facing a bad team here nor are they facing a team that has been stumbling. In fact they are facing a Packers team that finished the season on a 6-2 SU run! Green Bay played 17 games this season of course and only 3 of the 17 games were a GB loss by more than 4 points! Surprisingly all 3 of those ugly defeats came at home! The Packers were only 4-5 SU on the road but all 5 losses were by 4 or less points and those 5 defeats averaged just a 2.6 point margin. In other words, in this game Dallas is being asked to do something no other team has managed yet this season. The Cowboys are being asked to beat the traveling Packers by a spread greater than 4 points which makes this a 9-0 YTD factor as no team has done that this season! 10* GREEN BAY +7

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - The Dolphins were at Buffalo in last season's playoffs and lost by just 3 points even though Miami was down to a 3rd string QB. For many years, it has been made a big deal when warm weather teams go to cold weather cities. However, Miami has certainly had their share of cold weather games in recent seasons. Also, this is a much a play against the Chiefs as it is a play on the Dolphins. Kansas City just has not looked as strong or as dominant this season. Kansas City went just 5-5 SU in their last 10 games and only 2 of the 5 wins were by more than a 1-score margin! This line is as high as a +5 as of 11 hours before kickoff and I love the value here with this scrappy Miami team. The Dolphins have the better rushing numbers both offensively and defensively in this match-up and that could be a key with brutally cold weather for this game in KC and gusty winds possible. This game could turn into a bit of a grinder and I like having the sizable points on my side here. Also, Kelce's numbers dropped off this season and there also was a decline late in the season. If you are sick of the Taylor Swift drama with Kelce - which perhaps this is impacting him too - don't be surprised if you don't have to worry about it after this week. An outright upset would not surprise me in the least as this is a hungry up-and-coming dog facing a once-dominant Chiefs team that is on the decline. We'll grab the points just in case but we may not even need them. 10* MIAMI (+)

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns (-) @ Houston Texans @ 4:30 ET - Absolutely I respect the job they have done this season for the Texans but the fact is CJ Stroud is still a rookie QB making his first post-season appearance and DeMeco Ryans is still a first year head coach. Conversely, Kevin Stefanaski is in his 4th year as Browns head coach. They did make the post-season in his first season as head coach and won in the Wild Card Round over Pittsburgh. Though they lost to the AFC Champion Chiefs in the Divisional round but Kansas City went 14-2 that season. No shame in that. I like how Stefanaski took care of business for the Browns this season even though they had some significant injury issues. Also, Joe Flacco is a 38 year old veteran QB who had a huge push late this season and has this Browns team very confident heading into the post-season. He has thrown passes in 14 playoff games in his career over 6 different post-seasons. In his last 4 post-seasons he has 24 TD passes against only 5 INTs! Flacco is the veteran guy I want here and the Browns defense is the better D plus they come from a tougher division. The other 3 teams in their division went 33-18 this season while the other 3 teams in the Texans division went 24-27 and none of them made the post-season. The Browns, on the other hand, are one of 3 teams that made the playoffs out of 4 from the AFC North. There is a reason that Houston is a home underdog here. Don't let the line fool you! 10* CLEVELAND (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The line is as low as a 2.5 on the Bills here as of early game day morning so it is go time with this one. Buffalo has won 4 straight games and has all the momentum. Not only have the Bills won 4 straight games, they also dominated the Dolphins in their meeting earlier this season. Miami also enters this game after having had their doors blown off by the Ravens last week. It sets up well for continued domination for the Bills in this one as they have won 9 of the last 10 meetings SU. Also, the Bills have a good recent history in the final game of the regular season as they are 5-1 ATS L6 and, with this one for the AFC East title, Buffalo will be fully prepared again. Against possible division winning teams, the Dolphins only have one win and that was against Dallas in a tight game recently. Their other games against these Bills, the Eagles, the Chiefs and the Ravens were all losses. Miami just not  quite there yet in terms of their performance in the most pressure-packed games. This is another one here and the Bills have more experience in these types of affairs and that pays off here. 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 4:25 ET - Waiting has paid off here as we are now seeing the Eagles available as low as a -4 as of early gameday morning. This is an excellent line value as Philly is motivated to win for more reasons than one. Not only do they still have hopes of the Cowboys losing and opening the door for Eagles to win the division, they also just need to win to get back on track before the playoffs start. Remember they led Arizona 21-6 at the half in last week's loss. That's no excuse but is just a fact and they are capable of winning by a solid margin here against a Giants team they have beaten in 17 of the last 20 meetings. Keep in mind, both teams have struggled on defense this season but the Eagles have the much stronger attack on offense and I don't see New York as being able to keep up in this one. Prior to last week's 1-point loss, 9 of the Giants 10 losses this season have been by 5 or more points. 8 of the Eagles 11 wins this season have been by 5 or more points. The point is that with the drop on this line we now have solid line value here. If you expect the Eagles to win SU which logically most do, then you can also see that the odds favor that SU win also being an ATS cover. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Commanders are getting 13 points here and I feel strongly that it is just too much. I know Washington has struggled but Dallas is their biggest rival. If they can prevent the Cowboys from winning the division, they will certainly go hard in that endeavor. The key here is we don't need Washington to win this game outright to cash our ticket, we just need them to keep the game respectable and I fully expect them to do just that. Keep in mind, Dallas is just 2-5 SU last 7 road games and one of those was a win by just a 3-point margin. The Cowboys enter this game having failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Other than a blowout win over the Eagles, the Cowboys have allowed 27 ppg in their other 4 recent games. Sam Howell has had some big yardage numbers in his starts this season, including 300 against Dallas earlier this season, but he just needs to cut down on his mistakes. Look for Howell to make the most of his 2nd chance in a game that is the Commanders Super Bowl for this season. They will make the most of the chance and I look for this game to be tight throughout. Grab the big points. 10* WASHINGTON (+)

NFL Saturday Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Houston Texans @ 8:15 ET - This line is mostly a 2 but has moved to as high as a 2.5 on the Texans as of about 9 hours before kickoff and that means it is go time with the Colts in this one! Indianapolis has won 6 of 8 games including 4 in a row in non-road games. 3 of those were at home and one was at Frankfurt. Some of their stats are ugly but, the fact is, Indy keeps finding a way. They have allowed only 15 ppg in those 4 victories. The Texans have not won B2B games since they strung together a 3-game winning streak that lasted until mid-November. Houston is 0-3 SU last 3 times they were off a win. CJ Stroud has been a solid QB for the Texans but his numbers are stronger at home than on the road. Overall, the Texans won their most recent road game in OT but had lost 4 of 6 away from home. The Colts home field edge is the difference maker in this key battle in the AFC South! 10* INDIANAPOLIS (+)

NFL Saturday OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:30 ET - Ravens already locked up a spot in the post-season including the #1 seed in the AFC so that means Huntley will be at QB instead of Jackson. However, Baltimore is known for playing well even in meaningless games as their preseason record under Harbaugh has shown for many years. Also, Huntley has plenty of NFL experience including as a starter so he could move this Ravens offense better than many might expect. Additionally, the Steelers offense has been better with Rudolph at QB. Of course the Ravens will want to prevent their long-time rival from earning a playoff berth so I am expecting a solid effort from them here but the Steelers are desperate and will pull out all the stops here - more passing than usual, trick plays, getting the ball downfield quickly, hurry-up offense, etc - and with the drop on this total all the way down to as low as 34 as of about 5 and 1/2 hours before game time, it is go time with this one! 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

NFL Sunday 10* Minnesota Vikings Pick'em -110 vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The Packers have been so bad defensively in recent games. The Vikings have been doomed by turnovers but this team is talented on both sides of the ball and the QB change this week will pay for Minnesota. At the same time, the Vikings defense is much stronger than the Packers and they are at home here. This is a revenge game for Green Bay and that is keeping this line in the pick'em range when the reality is that the Vikings home field edge and defensive edge should be worth much more than they are being given credit for here. I trust Jaren Hall to have a solid game at QB as he gets his chance after Mullens cost the Vikings game each of the past two weeks due to turnovers. Justin Jefferson will have a huge game at WR for Minnesota and the Packers D continues to struggle. Vikings off a home loss to Detroit but this is after allowing just 16 ppg in their 3 prior home games. Vikes have allowed only 14 ppg in their 7 wins this season and they are solid on D at home. The Packers have allowed 29 ppg the last 3 weeks and they faced teams that are a combined 15-30 this season. Green Bay barely got by a 2-win Panthers team last week at Carolina and this followed a 1-5 run last 6 road games for the Pack. They do not travel well and the Vikings take advantage here. 10* MINNESOTA Pick'em -110

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 4:25 ET - Beautiful football weather in Denver for this one. Chilly but sunshine and light winds. We get value with this total as low as 37.5 as of about 5 hours before kickoff. These teams are not known for offense but look for big upticks from each here. Wilson was benched for a reason and don't be surprised if Jarrett Stidham comes in and has a strong game as the Broncos get a boost to the offense as everyone fired up to make things work and chase a playoff berth. As for the Chargers, Herbert is out of course but I do not care who they use at QB here. LA has been given a boost by the head coaching change that absolutely had needed to happen and they will continue to play hard here and look to play spoiler against a divisional foe. The Chargers have scored more than 20 points each of their last two games but also allowed 24 points or more in their last 3 games. The Broncos have averaged 21 ppg their last 3 games but also have allowed more than 21 points in 3 of last 4. The odds favor each team getting into the 20s in this game and yet we are dealing with a total in the upper 30s. I love the value here because you have two highly motivated teams here as Chargers continue to work hard after the coaching change and Broncos want post-season chance. Also, in the thin air of Denver, the field goals can be kicked from great distance so we could see plenty of field goal chances on a nice weather day here. 10* OVER the total in Denver

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Titans are 2-3 last 5 games but two of those losses were in OT and all 3 losses were by exactly a 3 point margin. That is why the +4 being offered here as of 3 hours before kickoff is a solid line value! Tennessee lost to Houston two weeks ago in the most recent meeting between these divisional rivals. The Titans, after another tight loss last week, are relegated to playing the role of spoiler here. Certainly that is not a role they take lightly against bitter rivals. They would love to prevent the Texans from winning the division. Tennessee has not lost by more than 3 points since mid-November. Houston has only 2 wins by more than 3 points in their last 9 games! This is an easy call in terms of value with the points with a highly motivated divisional underdog! 10* TENNESSEE (+)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Arizona Cardinals @ 1 ET - The Eagles are about a 12.5 point favorite as of 3 hours before kickoff in this one. The Cardinals have lost 10 of 12 games and those 10 losses have been by an average margin of 15 ppg. Couple that with the fact that they are on the road for this one and facing one of the top teams in the league and their QB Kyler Murray is dealing with an illness. Remember that same issue (an illness) plagued Eagles QB Jalen Hurts a few weeks ago and it showed in his play on the field in that tough loss. Well now it is Murray that will likely play but not be 100% and he does not have the supporting cast that Hurts has either. In other words, this one will get ugly. After the Cowboys controversial 1-point win in which every key penalty call including a ridiculous one on a 2-point conversion that stole a win from the Lions, the Eagles now are in a key situation in which they must win this game. They will not mess around and will leave no doubt. They have deserved some better results than they have gotten of late and I know the Eagles recent wins have not been by big margins but this Cardinals team is very weak defensively and the Eagles are angry (even coming off a win) as they still are fired up about not having an "A game" effort and they had the undeserved loss to the Seahawks the week before the win over the Giants last week. Philly is favored with good reason here and they have averaged 30 ppg in their 11 wins this season while Cardinals have scored 15 ppg in their last 10 losses. I am looking for a 31-14 type game given all of the above but honestly a margin of 20+ points is likely here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - This line is the 5.5 range as of 8 hours before kickoff. Note that both teams have already clinched a post-season berth but there is still some motivation for both teams here. Detroit and Dallas both need to win for playoff positioning reasons but, without a doubt, the pressure is much more on the Cowboys than the Lions in this one. Detroit already clinched the NFC North while Dallas is still chasing the Eagles for the NFC East division title. So the pressure is on Dallas here and they have not been handling it well. They already lost B2B games after finally catching the Eagles at the top of the division. Losses to the Bills and Dolphins the past two weeks and the Cowboys continue their pattern of losing to quality teams. Certainly the Lions are a quality team. Also, statistically Detroit has the much better rush defense in this match-up. Their weakness is pass defense but Prescott has a history of struggling in big games against better teams. Also, another angle I like a lot in this match-up is Lions head coach Dan Campbell is a Texas guy. He played for the Cowboys during his NFL career and was born in Texas and in college he played with the Aggies of Texas A & M. In 2021, he became head coach of the Lions and it was a tough season but he has fully completed the turnaround. By the way, during his time with the Lions, they have met just one time and that was last season and was a 24 to 6 loss for Detroit. You can bet, literally, they have their eyes on payback here as this team has come a long way and this Lions team playing with confidence and without pressure whereas Dallas needs this game to have any reasonable shot in the NFC East race with the Eagles. We'll grab the points here but I do not even expect to need them. As usual, the Cowboys fall on the big stage like they so often do. Against quality teams like the Dolphins, Bills, Eagles and 49ers the Cowboys are 1-4 SU. Give me the points. 10* DETROIT (+)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 33.5 in Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets @ 8:15 ET - This total is just too low when you consider that Siemian has rejuvenated the Jets offense a bit and he is getting the call as starter again this week. Also, the Browns are legitimate one touchdown favorites here and Flacco has revitalized the Browns offense as well. So here you have a Cleveland team that has won 3 in a row and is playing with confidence and they are hosting a Jets team that has won 2 of 3 and is looking to play the role of spoiler. Jets have allowed 29 points per game last two games. However, they have also scored 30 points in their last two wins. Cleveland has seen each of last five games total at least 37 points! The Browns have allowed 26 ppg last 5 games but have also scored 29 ppg last 3 games. Look at the line on this game and this total. That would put this game, given the spread by the oddsmakers, at about 21-14 but I just don't see either team being held below those numbers given the above. Also, definitely decent weather by Cleveland standards for late December for this one. I respect these defenses but the offenses are playing with more confidence of late and this posted total is just too low given the recent level of play of these offensive units. 10* OVER 33.5 in Cleveland 

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - This total is down to as low as a 46 as of about 11 hours before kickoff on this one. I love going contrarian in this one. Of course you are talking about two solid defenses here but why is this total so high? Exactly! This total is high because we are also talking about two great offenses here and I feel the running ability of Jackson for the Ravens is going to frustrate the Niners in this one. He is a major headaches for defenses and, at the same time, Baltimore will struggle to slow down the Niners in this one as their offense is "off the charts" good. Lets dig into the numbers on this one. The 49ers enter this one having won 6 straight games and they averaged scoring 34.5 points per game during this stretch! So they must of played a bunch of bad teams, right? No, not at all actually! The Niners had 5 of the 6 games against teams that are likely to end up in this year's playoffs! So the point is that San Francisco can move the ball on anyone and will do so again here against the Ravens. Baltimore has won 8 of 9 games and they have scored an average of 26.4 ppg in those 9 games. Note that the spread on this game is right around a 7 and, per the above, a 34-27 final would not be a shock. Now certainly that is not what I am necessarily expecting here but that gives us a lot of wiggle room (about 2 TDs) compared to the posted total on this game! I am definitely looking for 48 to 55 as a likely range on this total. These are two of the top offenses in the NFL and the weather will be great for this one as well. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 4:30 ET - The Giants had won 3 straight before a 24-6 loss last week. However, 2 of those 3 wins were at home. In terms of road games, the Giants have lost 3 of 4 and all 3 of those losses were by at least 18 points! Overall, 5 of their last 6 road losses have been by at least 18 points and the average margin of those defeats is 19 points! The Eagles are off 3 straight losses but they faced 3 playoff teams in the 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks. Those teams have a combined record of 29-15. The Giants, on the other hand, have a 5-9 record. Philly is going to move the ball much better this week as Hurts is now healthy and the Eagles offense does look healthy, for the most part, heading into this one. The defense has some injuries but the Giants offense just does not have the weapons to take advantage. The Eagles so hungry off 3 straight losses, are at home, and they can take advantage of the Cowboys loss yesterday to move back into first place in the division. A lot of positive energy as a result of all of the above is going to see the Eagles win this one in an annihilation. The Giants just do not have the offense to keep up here. The Giants have scored an average of 9 points in their 9 losses this season. The Eagles are averaging 30 points in their 10 victories their season. That puts this game at about 30-9 which is a victory margin of 21 points and we are looking at a line that is just under the 2-TD margin - the current line on this game. The line is 13.5 on this one as of about 8 hours before kickoff. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 36.5 in Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - We get line value here due to the long-term under trending in NFL this season plus that trend being particularly strong in primetime games plus the fact that these teams each had low-scoring tendencies up until recently. Now, things are starting to change and yet the betting markets have not caught up with that and getting this total in the mid-30's is a bargain to say the least. The Broncos are off a loss but this followed a 6-1 SU run in which Denver averaged 22.6 points scored per game. Also, Denver has allowed an average of 21 ppg in their last 6 games. The Patriots are off a home loss that totaled 44 points. Also, in terms of true road games (not neutral site), the Pats have seen 4 of last 5 total at least 38 points! Those 4 games averaged 41.5 points per game and that is the range I am expecting with this one today as well. Zappe has 4 TD passes for the Patriots the past two weeks. Wilson has 3 TDs the past two weeks. Also he has 13 TDs against only 1 INT in his 7 home games this season. Patriots will surprise on the road here as Zappe continues to work hard to get this offense going and Broncos D has struggled some recently but, also, the Broncos strong play continues at home. 10* OVER 36.5 in Denver 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins PK -115 / -120 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - When the Cowboys prove they can beat a good team on the road I will stop fading them away from home. But as I noted in their game at Buffalo last week when we had the Bills, the Cowboys almost always struggle against good teams and particularly when on the road. As I mentioned in last week's write-up on Buffalo, the Cowboys were off the shocking absolute blowout of the Eagles the prior week. That was a huge divisional win for Dallas but the most shocking aspect was not just the final score and the domination. The most shocking aspect is the Cowboys finally beat a good team. The fact is Dallas almost always fails against good teams. It has been their modus operandi (m.o.) for quite some time now. The Cowboys dominate all the bad teams and plump up their stats in those games and then get everyone excited but then they crumble against quality teams. Give Dallas credit for the big win over Philly but also it looks like something continues to be amiss with the Eagles the past few weeks. That is certainly not the case with Miami. The Dolphins have won 6 of their 7 games played in Miami this season and their only loss was by a single point against Tennessee. That said, I feel we have some solid home value here with the Dolphins in this one. Dallas, including post-season action, is 0-5 both SU and ATS the last 5 times they have been road dogs. Of course when the Cowboys are road dogs it means they are facing a quality team. This goes back to what I was saying above in that Dallas usually struggles against quality opposition and, of course, road games are the toughest. Dolphins are about 1 point favorite here as of about 5 hours before kickoff but they also are available in the -115 to -120 range on the money line which is the better value in my opinion. Look for that play against situation involving Dallas as a road dog to improve to a PERFECT 6-0 the last six. 10* MIAMI (-)

Scott NFL Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans Money Line +145 vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - Seattle on a short week plus traveling. Seahawks also off miracle in over the Eagles on Monday night. It was not just a miracle in terms of the late drive for the last second game deciding score. It was a miracle because of a non-pass interference call in the end zone not too long before that which would have given the Eagles the ball first and goal and they would have pushed in with their tush push play like they always do. Philly was already leading the game at the time and would have cemented the game away right there but instead the officials decided it was okay to let a Seahawks defender push the Eagles receiver away so he could intercept the ball. Yes, I had a huge play on the Eagles and yes I am bitter about it but that is merely serving to gives us line value here. I will enjoy watching this Seahawks resume their losing ways this week. Seattle had lost 4 straight before that "phantom win" over the Eagles and the Seahawks also have a disgruntled QB in Geno Smith who will now start this week. This spells disaster as Seattle faces a Tennessee team who gets a rejuvenated Ryan Tannehill back at QB for this game and the Titans will take advantage of hosting a Seahawks team that has a "sparkling" 0-5 SU run in their last 5 road games! I am happy to test this 5-0 play against streak here and we do not even need the points here to test it. Give me the money line here and the Titans have not lost in regulation since mid-November. The point is that the Titans could easily be 4-0 last 4 but they were on the wrong end of two OT games. 10* TENNESSEE +145 

NFL Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings Money Line +135 vs Detroit Lions @ 1 ET - This is another home dog situation I like a lot as the Vikings have the much better defense than the Lions D. Plus Minny is at home for this game plus the Vikes are off that game versus the Bengals in which they completely blew the game and lost it in OT. This followed wins in 6 of last 8 games and the Vikings have allowed an average of 16 points in their last 3 home games and that even included a win over the 49ers. This Vikes team can D up and was off a shutout win on the road just prior to last week's loss at Cincinnati. Minny will bounce back from that here and note that the Lions have lost each of their last two divisional games. Also, before beating Denver last week, Detroit had allowed an average of 30 ppg in their last 5 games! I am grabbing the better D at home and off a loss and we do not even need the points. Grab the money line in this one. 8* MINNESOTA +135 

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play LA Chargers (+) vs Buffalo Bills @ 8 ET - As of about 7 and 1/2 hours before kickoff this line is in the 13 range. The Chargers will be a different team this week. Yes they got blown out by Raiders and Broncos the past two weeks but the yardage was not nearly commensurate with the final scores of those games. They were fluke final scores. Now the Chargers have fired their head coach and will be different this week. After getting blasted 63 to 21 at Las Vegas last week on Thursday, Los Angeles is anxious to get back on the field and make up for that embarrassment. Yes, the Bills are a solid team but to be laying nearly two touchdowns here sure seems like a bit much. Buffalo is off 3 straight huge games - Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys - and has a divisional revenge game on deck versus Patriots. Don't be surprised if this game is decided by a single score margin. The Chargers, prior to B2B losses, were just 5-7 on the season but only 2 losses by more than 3 points in those dozen games! A lot of line value here with the huge points for the home dog in a situation where the road favorite may not be 100% focused. 10* LA Chargers (+)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in LA Rams vs NO Saints @ 8:15 ET - Waiting as this has paid off to delay release time some and this line is down to a 45 as of about 6 hours before kickoff. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in 6 of last 8 games. They have averaged 25 points per game last 10 games. New Orleans is off B2B wins and the Rams have won 4 of 5 so each team playing with extra confidence here. Also, Los Angeles has scored an average of 30 points per game during this 5-game stretch. Though there is some rain expected in the area this evening in LA it is expected to light at least for the majority, if not all, of the game. Also, winds expected to be light as well. That said, both offenses should be able to operate as they want tonight and the Saints have allowed 24.5 ppg in their last 4 games away from home. The Rams have allowed 24 ppg last 9 games. We should see both teams getting to at least the 24 point mark here and I see this game finishing in the 50s for total points scored as two confident offenses are squaring off in this one. Carr and Stafford both poised for big games in this one the way they have been going. The Saints will have WR Olave back for this one as well. Also, in terms of trending, the over is 3-0 / 100% this season when the Rams are off a game decided in regulation (non-OT) in which they scored at least 28 points! This one tests that 100% season-long trend and I expect the winning to continue as we should see another high-scoring match-up here given all of the above. 10* OVER the total in LA Rams

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - The Eagles are mostly 3 point favorites, though you may find a 2.5 or two out there, as of early gameday morning. I am aware of the Hurts illness but expect him to play at QB for Philly. In any event, lets also not forget that Geno Smith is still dealing with a groin injury and is unlikely to be 100% if he even plays here. That could leave little-used Drew Lock as the starting QB for Seattle here. Even though the Seahawks have strong receivers, I like the fact that the QB situation could certainly be impactful in that regard! The Eagles defense also could be aggressive here with Patricia taking over the play-calling duties and I expect the Philly D to respond after looking lousy the last couple games. The Seahawks, keep in mind, have lost 4 straight games. The Eagles, courtesy of the Dallas loss yesterday, are again in the driver's seat for the NFC East division and I do not expect them to let this opportunity slip through their hands. Philly is 7-1 ATS when they are off B2B SU losses if the latter of those two losses was against a divisional foe. This one fits the bill in that regard. Also, the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS when they are off a divisional road game. Keep in mind they last were at home off a divisional road game where they had lost at the Rams and then got pounded 31-13 by the 49ers. This is all now part of an 0-4 stretch in which they have allowed 33.3 ppg last 3 games. The Seahawks now off another ugly loss to the Niners this time at San Francisco so this one fits that system play that is 7-0 ATS going against the Hawks! Look for that one to make it 8 IN A ROW right here! Seattle has a great home record this season but played a lot of struggling teams here. The Seahawks are 4-2 at home but 3 of the 4 home wins against teams that are now a combined 9-33 SU this season! The Eagles are 5-2 on the road this season and 3 of the road wins have come against teams that at least a have a .500 record on the year. They can beat this 6-7 Seahawks team and I have no hesitation in backing the 7-0 angle! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:20 ET - The current line as of Friday morning is a 3 and I love the value with the small road favorite in this one. The Ravens are actually 5-1 on the road this season. The Jaguars are just 2-3 SU last 5 games and one of those wins was against a Tennessee team that is now 5-8 on the season. The Jags, not including OT points of course, have allowed 26 ppg last 5 games. The Ravens enter this game 10-3 on the season including 7-1 last 8 and Baltimore has allowed only 14 ppg in last 5 games played away form Baltimore. The Ravens are the much stronger defense, particularly against the pass, and Trevor Lawrence is off a game in which he threw 3 picks. This is also a revenge game for the Ravens since they lost here last year by a single point. Baltimore knows they have extra rest on deck with a big Monday night game (their only one scheduled this season) on deck and the Ravens have gone 7-0 ATS the last 7 times when they have a Monday Night game on deck. The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS this season in true home games (not neutral site like London) against non-divisional opponents. That means we have double perfect angles we are testing with this play and I look for another Ravens cover in this one as they are the stronger overall team playing the better football right now and they have the better defense. Getting a 3 here makes this is a great value! 10* BALTIMORE (-) 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The line on this one is as low as 1.5 as of about 5 hours before kickoff but also the money line is as low as a -125 if you have that option as well. The Bills off the big win at Kansas City but the Cowboys off the shocking absolute blowout of the Eagles last week. That was a huge divisional win for Dallas but the most shocking aspect was not just the final score and the domination. The most shocking aspect is the Cowboys finally beat a good team. The fact is Dallas almost always fails against good teams. It has been their modus operandi (m.o.) for quite some time now. The Cowboys dominate all the bad teams and then crumble against quality teams. Give Dallas credit for the big win last week but also it looks like something was amiss with the Eagles the past few weeks. That is certainly not the case with Buffalo. The Bills have won 2 of last 3 and their only loss was at the Eagles in OT in a game that Buffalo deserved to win. That said, I feel we have some solid home value here with the Bills in this one. Dallas, including post-season action, is 0-4 both SU and ATS the last 4 times they have been road dogs. Of course when the Cowboys are road dogs it means they are facing a quality team. This times back to what I was saying above in that Dallas usually struggles against quality opposition and, of course, road games are the toughest. Look for that streak to reach 5-0 ATS here as the Bills continue their strong level of play and catch Cowboys off that huge divisional win over Philly. Arguably this game means even more to Buffalo also as their playoff hopes are hanging in the balance but they gave themselves a boost with the win over the Chiefs last week and will build on that momentum here! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - This total offering great value in the upper 40s. The Cardinals have been a different team since Murray came back at QB and I expect them to score well here but Arizona also has little chance of slowing down a 49ers team that has been clicking and is one of the most dangerous teams in the league. San Francisco is a huge favorite here with good reason of course. Note that they are 10-3 on the season and in their 10 wins they have averaged 33 ppg! The Cardinals, since Murray has come back, have averaged a respectable 20 ppg. Also, Arizona's 6 home games have averaged 52 ppg this season. Look for another high-scoring battle here as the Cards also are off a much-needed late-season bye week. Arizona will have fresh legs here and will move the ball well on their home field and with a rejuvenated offense. However, they are allowing 33 ppg in their home losses this season and the Niners will impose their will against a suspect Cardinals defense as this game goes on. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Giants have rallied around DeVito at QB. They are getting much better play on the offensive line. The defense and even special teams at times is forcing turnovers. New York has a very positive vibe right now and I like backing sizable underdogs in spots like this. They have the momentum and even though the Saints won last week they were outgained by about 100 yards in that victory and it was against a Panthers team that is 1-12 on the season! So New Orleans is a still a bit over-rated right now and the points are generous in this one. The Giants are a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they have entered a game off of exactly 3 straight SU wins. The Saints are 0-3 SU the last 3 times they were off a win in which they allowed 17 points or less. That makes this a double perfect spot and I would not be surprised to see the Giants win outright but we will grab the points just in case. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+)

Saturday NFL 10* Denver Broncos (+) @ Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - Current line is 4.5 as of Friday morning. Not only is Denver 6-1 SU last 7 games, the Broncos had 5 of the 6 wins come against teams that are in the mix for a playoff spot. Now look at a Lions team trending the other way as Detroit has gone just 4-3 SU last 7 games and only 1 of the 4 wins was against a team with a legit playoff shot. That would be the Saints who have a decent chance because they play in a division that does not have a single team with a winning record entering this week's action. The Lions other 3 wins in this 7 game stretch came against 3 teams that entered this week a combined 15-24 and, barring a miracle, will not be in the post-season. In fact, the last time the Lions beat a team that currently has a winning record was way back in Week 1 when they beat Kansas City in a surprise season-opening win. The Broncos also have a win over the Chiefs plus also the Browns, Vikings and Bills - all 4 of those teams have winning records right now entering this week's action. The point is that the Lions have been trending the wrong direction and are not a true 9-4 team the way I see it while the Broncos have been trending the right direction and confidence growing with each win. With each victory, the confidence of Denver is growing. I am not saying they win this outright necessarily but I do feel we have excellent value with this line at 4.5 as of Friday morning meaning that the common final margins of both 3 and 4 would both provide winning tickets with the dog in this one. Goff has thrown multiple picks in 2 of his last 4 games and both were against a Bears team that is just 5-8 this season. Conversely, Wilson had thrown NO picks in 7 of last 8 games prior to his 3-INT performance against the Texans which gave Denver its only loss last 7 games. I like the way the Broncos are trending and feel the Lions are starting to show their true colors as the season has gone on. Give the big points in this one! 10* DENVER (+)

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (Pick'em) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:30 ET - This line is right around a pick'em and is as much a play AGAINST the Steelers as it is a play on the Colts. Followers know I have been very anti-Pittsburgh this season as the wins the Steelers have definitely have seem to come mostly by virtue of smoke and mirrors. Statistically Pittsburgh has been outgained in almost every single game this season. Indianapolis enters this game off an ugly loss but this followed 4 straight wins. I like the fact that Pittsburgh has beaten Indy 8 straight meetings yet this line is a pick'em. Looks easy to take the Steelers going for 9 in a row does it not? Well the fact is their offense has been struggling badly and Pittsburgh is averaging just 14 points per game last 4 games and I look for that 8-0 SU run to come to a screeching halt right here. The Steelers have lost 3 of 4 now and quickly are coming back down to earth and the last two losses were at home as well. Now they go on the road. They are now 0-5 ATS when they are coming off an outright upset home loss in non-divisional action. This one, just like their loss to the Patriots after upset home loss to Cardinals, fits the bill in that regard and I look for that "go against Steelers" spot to make it to 6-0 ATS as the hungry Colts get it done at home here. Indy is the much more consistent offense and respectable on the ground and through the air. 10* INDIANAPOLIS 

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers + @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - The current line on this as of about 12 hours before kickoff is in the 3 to 3.5 range and I feel we have solid underdog line value with the Chargers in this one. LA will be starting Ethan Stick at QB in this one. Yes he has a little NFL experience but this guy was a winner at North Dakota State - a solid FCS school - and he has some experience already in the LA system here. Now with a full week to prepare for this game and work with the first team offense again, Stick will be fully prepared here and I expect him to surprise. This Raiders team covered their game last week despite not scoring a single point! They lost 3-0 but were 3.5 point dogs last week. They are favored here because of the home field factor in this one but the road team is actually 8-5 SU in Chargers games this season as LA has been better on the road than at home. Also, one of those 5 SU wins for the home team was when the Chargers beat the Raiders in LA earlier this season. Remember too that the Chargers just recently won 6-0 at New England after a low-scoring loss in which they scored just 10 points at home the week before. The Chargers are now a perfect 9-0 ATS when they are on the road and coming off a game in which they scored 10 or less points. Coming off the 24-7 home loss to Denver last week and now on the road at Las Vegas, look for LA to bounce back strong here and take that ATS run to a perfect 10-0 ATS! 10* LA CHARGERS + points

NFL Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The Giants will likely have Tommy DeVito under center for this one and he has been a pleasant surprise as he has improved each week. This one sets up well from a situational perspective. The line has gone up on Green Bay and is now a solid 6 as of early game day morning. The Packers are off that huge upset win over the Chiefs while the Giants benefit here from a late season bye. Note that New York won their two games before the bye week too. I know those wins were over bad Commanders and Patriots teams but, the point is, the confidence of New York is growing with each win. They also will have Tyrod Taylor available here to back up DeVito. The Packers won their most recent road game in upset fashion at Detroit but they had lost 4 straight road games prior to that. Now Green Bay is in an unusual role (for this season) as they are a larger favorite in this one. Keep in mind, the Packers (before these wins over the Lions and Chiefs), had only one win by more than 3 points in the 9 games preceding these two bigger wins. As bad as the Giants have been, they only have lost by more than 5 points twice in their last 7 games and they have the rest edge entering this one plus a home dog edge as they have been much better here since losing big in their first two home games to the Cowboys and Seahawks. Grab the home dog here and don't be surprised if we see an outright upset. Not only is GB off the big upset of KC but they also have TB on deck and the Bucs are in the mix along with the Packers for a Wild Card spot in the post-season. This is a tricky spot for the Pack all the way around. Give me the points. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - This is a classic case of recent results creating an immediate over-reaction from the marketplace. The Cowboys are favored by 3.5 points here as of the overnight hours heading into Sunday. Dallas lost at Philly earlier this season but, since then, they have won 4 straight. However, they barely got by Seattle last week after having walloped the Giants, Panthers and Commanders. The combined record of those 3 teams is now 9-28 on the season. This is classic Cowboys. Dallas tends to look great and pad stats against bad teams and then struggle mightily against others. Note that the Cowboys are now facing 4 straight tough games against teams with a combined 34-14 record. Part of the reason Dallas has such a strong record this season is they have played a weak schedule. The Cowboys already are 0-2 against stronger teams: SF and Philly. The Eagles have already played Buffalo and Miami while Dallas still has those teams on deck. Philly also beat the Chiefs in addition to toppling the Bills and Dolphins. Now, I am well aware that the Niners just waxed the Eagles but the Cowboys got rolled by them as well. The ugly Philly loss to SF just happened and creates the line value here. You know the Eagles will be hungry to bounce back and prove that defeat was a fluke! I have no hesitation in grabbing the points here and challenging Dallas to win this game by more than field goal. The Cowboys just do not have a history of performing well in big games against strong teams. Dallas will struggle just to win, let alone cover, in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - Current line in the overnight hours is as high as a +1.5 for the Bills. The Chiefs are at home where they are 4-2 on the season. The Bills are on the road where they are 1-4 on the season. Kansas City also lost last year's meeting at Buffalo so this is revenge even though yes, I know, the Bills have had some memorable playoff battles recently against the Chiefs that went the wrong way. When you consider all of the above factors, how is KC such a small favorite in this spot? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you! The Bills are the play! Who can bet against Mahomes and Company at a home in a game where the line is virtually a pick'em and we are playing on a team that has had tough road trips this season? We can! Buffalo has a key edge here in that they are coming off a late-season bye week. So the Bills have had plenty of time to rest both mentally and physically plus "recharge their batteries" for this game. The set-up here is a solid one for Buffalo. Remember that the Bills made a change at offensive coordinator last month. The Bills are off that OT loss at Philly but they scored a pile of points and this followed a thrashing of the Jets the prior week. As bad as the Jets are, they do have a respectable defense and the point is that Buffalo put up big yardage against them and against the Eagles. They outgained Philly by over 100 yards and should have won that game. They have averaged nearly 450 yards per game in the two games since the OC change. Conversely, the Chiefs offense just has not been what it once was. The Bills season has ended here in Kansas City in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Though the Bills won a regular season game at KC last season, this is yet another shot at more payback that is on the very field where the Bills season had ended in EACH of the two seasons prior to last year. Payback time. 10* BUFFALO 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - We get line value here (in the 2.5 range as of overnight hours) because the Bengals are off that upset win of the Jaguars on Monday night. Note that the Bengals had lost 3 straight before that. I know Browning had a big game for Cincinnati and is a solid QB. However, Cincinnati is now on a short week and with travel involved as they were in Jacksonville for the battle with the Jags. Indy has won 4 straight games and, like Jags QB Browning, Colts QB Minshew is off a big game. The Colts were favored in this one but the line has flipped to having Indianapolis as the dog. I love fading line moves like this and expect the Bengals struggles to quickly resume. Yes, both teams off OT wins but the Colts have a rest edge here plus they have now won 4 straight whereas the Bengals had lost 3 in a row before that victory. Cincy is allowing 28 ppg last 4 games while Colts allowing 17 ppg last 4 games. 10* INDIANAPOLIS (+) 

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - As of about 8 hours before kickoff the dominant number on this total is 30 but there is even some 29.5 starting to show up. I totally understand the low number but am happy to go against it here. Don't be surprised if Trubisky has a big game for Pittsburgh here and if New England surprises pleasantly whether it is Zappe or Jones under center. Note that the Steelers are not nearly good defensively as their points allowed would lead you to believe. Statistically, Pittsburgh ranks poorly against both the run and the pass! New England ranks only in the middle of the pack statistically against the pass. So, even though the Patriots have some low points allowed numbers o late, don't be surprised if things come unraveled here. The Steelers had scored an average of 19 ppg in their last 5 home games prior to struggling versus the Cardinals last week. Also, 6 of their 7 home games have totaled at least 30 points this season. The Patriots, before a 10-7 loss to the Giants in New York, had seen 4 of their last 5 true road games (non-neutral site) had seen each of their last 3 road games total at least 38 points. The point is that recent point totals have caused an over-reaction in the marketplace. This has created on value on the over here. Also, the weather in Pittsburgh will be perfect football weather. Chilly but little wind and no precipitation expected. Also, the overall trending of night games under the total this season is starting to show signs of a reversal. Last week all 3 primetime games went over the total. Getting this one into the 30s is not too much to ask. Each team has quarterbacks and offenses hungry to prove they can get going again. No this will NOT be a shootout but we don't need a shootout to get into the 30s in this one! Look for each offense to enjoy moderate success here and that gets the job done in this one. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - This line is currently in the 10 range with even some 10.5 out there as of early game day morning. First off a couple of perfect systems here in this situation involving the Bengals. Cincinnati beat Jacksonville the last time these teams met and it was recent enough that it matters. This one in 2021 and that makes this a revenge game for the Jaguars. That puts the Bengals into a nice system angle here as they have covered 10 times in a row when they are a road dog and the team they are facing is playing with revenge. Also, Cincinnati has covered 8 times in a row when they are in non-divisional action against an AFC foe that is on a SU winning streak of at least 2 games. Now, to the meat and potatoes of this spot, I think the Bengals were still dealing with shock last week as they lost their star QB for the season in the prior game. As a result, they got crushed by the Steelers as it was about more than just Joe Burrow being gone for the season, the overall team morale was just crushed and they could never get it going in that game. Keep in mind, these are still professionals and after an effort at Pittsburgh in which they were outstatted by a big margin, they will bounce back here. The Bengals come to play in this one on primetime TV and I love having big dogs that will give big effort in the NFL. Browning is now expected to have Higgins back at WR for this one after he missed 8 games and having him along with Chase makes the offense a little more dangerous. I liked Browning in College and feel he will be stronger now after getting that first start under his belt. The Jags are having a strong season but in 11 games so far they have only 3 wins by more than 10 points on the season. I think this is a on-score game and we have excellent line value. 10* CINCINNATI (+) 

Sunday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - There is snow in the area today but it will be mostly gone by kickoff here. Winds will have also died down by kickoff. It will be cold but nothing brutal. The point is I do not expect either offense to be impacted here. We all know the Chiefs can move the ball well but the big key here too is that the Packers offense has been stronger of late too. Green Bay did tally 377 yards last week and they have scored an average of 24 points per game last 3 games. The Packers have allowed at least 20 points in 3 of last 4 games at home and now face the defending champs. Kansas City only scored 17 points in that recent loss with Philly but they should have had a lot more scoring in that one. They dropped too many passes. The Chiefs then scored 31 last week at Vegas and, other than a fluke 9 point performance at Denver, they have scored 24.7 ppg in their other 10 games. There has been a big under trend on primetime NFL this season and this has forced the numbers down further than they should be. Keep in mind, both teams off divisional wins plus the Chiefs have a big game with the Bills on deck. The defenses are unlikely to be at their best in this kind of scheduling situation and I love the fact this total is in the low 40s. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

NFL Sunday 10* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - The dominant number on this one is a 4 as of about 6 hours before kickoff. The Browns have struggled to score points in their past two games and now they have to go with Joe Flacco at QB in this one. He is a veteran but is entering this game off the practice squad and has not seen live action in a long time. I expect Cleveland's offense to continue to struggle here and they are facing a Rams team that has been much better since their bye week. The confidence of B2B wins for this LA team was much needed and, though the Rams are not spectacular in any one facet, they have solid overall teams stats in terms of the run and the pass numbers on offense and defense. The Browns are very weak on the passing attack and that will be the difference in this one! Don't be surprised if Flacco struggles in his first action in a long time in this one and this is a new team for him as well. The Rams barely snuck by the Seahawks and also just beat a Cardinals team that is having a tough season but the confidence and the locker room atmosphere that is now present in LA is getting contagious. These guys believe they can make a run at the post-season yet and I am expecting another strong effort here to result in the home win and cover in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - This line is a solid 6.5 as of 5 hours before kickoff and this is unchartered territory for the Steelers this season. Look for that to be the difference in this one. Every line in Steelers games this season has been in the 4 range or less (whether dog or fave) and this is a rare bigger favorite situation for Pittsburgh. Yes they put up some big yardage (finally!) last week but this team has been outgained in almost every single game this season and is one of the most fortunate 7-4 NFL teams the league has ever seen at this later stage in the season. This is the perfect spot for a letdown. The Cardinals have a bye on deck. The Steelers are facing a non-conference opponent that has one of the worst records in the league. This game and this line is Trap City for the Steel City! Don't let the line fool you. I was hoping for +7 but there is a reason this line is holding at 6.5 across the board. The ugly dog Cards are the play. The Bengals are really a mess because the entire team morale plummeted after the Joe Burrow injury. The reason I am talking about Cincinnati here is because that is the team the Steelers just piled up all those yards against last week. The Bengals have issues now with Burrow out for the season. The defense of the Cards, though not great, is going to at least bring an effort here. These guys not happy at all about their record and will be going all out for an upset road win before their bye week. 10* ARIZONA +6.5

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The current number as of early game day morning is 9.5 or 9 in most books. I was hoping we might see 10 points popping up but, either way, based on this current line we are essentially challenging the Cowboys to win this game by double digits. I love this spot as a spot to fade Dallas. They are off a big home win but when you look close at what the Cowboys have done this season, it has been a typical Dallas season. They beat up on bad teams (other than when they fell short at Arizona) and they lose to stronger teams (Niners, Eagles). Now I am certainly not saying the Seahawks are in the category of a San Fran or Philly. But I they do have a winning record this season and were 6-3 before suffering B2B tough losses. The Cowboys are 8-3 this season and taking away the two games against the only two teams they have faced that currently have a winning record, the other 8 teams they have faced have a combined record of 26-55 this season! So the Cowboys 8 wins (including twice beating Giants) plus the lone loss to a bad team (Arizona) means that Dallas is 8-1 against teams with a losing record. Those teams current combined losing record is 26-55. Seattle is not SF or Philly but they also are better than all the teams that Dallas has made a living feasting off of this season. This is going to be a much tougher game than most are expecting. Carroll will have his team ready on the road coming off B2B losses and to top it off, the Cowboys have Philly on deck! This is a huge lookahead situation because Eagles are playing SF this week. Dallas knows that Philly could lose that game which means if the Cowboys win this plus beat Philly next week then both teams would be 10-3 and tied at the top of the NFC East! Trust me Dallas has this in their head too and all this in their head means this "cakewalk game" turns into a "lookahead situation" and traditionally these are the types of games Dallas struggles in. Seattle has beaten Detroit and Cleveland this season and those two teams have a combined 15-7 record this season. The Seahawks are 11-2 ATS when they face a non-divisional opponent that has a winning record. Also, coach Carroll's teams have produced a 20-5 ATS record when entering a game off B2B SU losses and this their first losing streak of the season! Even with the big win over Washington on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys are still just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite in Thursday games. Seahawks bounce back here and might even pull off the shocker. Grab the big points. 10* SEATTLE (+)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - This total is a 44 as of early gameday morning. Considering all the unders cashing consistently in the NFL this season and all the primetime unders as well, this total seems too high, does it not? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. This divisional showdown between two teams generally known for defense more than offense might surprise people to see a total posted in the mid-40s. It is no mistake! Note that the Bears will have Justin Fields back at QB for this one. The Vikings Josh Dobbs has been solid at QB so far since being acquired from the Cardinals. Now, look at some recent numbers for these teams. The Bears have given up piles of points when away from Soldier Field this season. Chicago is allowing 29 ppg this season when they are away from home. The Vikings defense has been solid overall this season but even they are allowing 22 ppg at home this season. The Bears offensive production can ramp up again with Fields under center and the Vikings low points allowed numbers hides the fact that their pass defense has been mediocre. Chicago has a decent ground game that can open things up through the air as the ground attack of Herbert and Foreman (plus Fields dangerous legs) keeps the defense honest as they must respect the ground game. As for the Bears defense, they have struggled against the pass this season and the Vikings have good overall numbers through the air this season. Dobbs is not Kirk Cousins but he has looked solid and should be especially strong at home in this one. The first meeting was just 19-13 (Vikes win) and the posted total was also 44. Now the rematch has the same total despite the first one staying under by double digits and the Vikings having only one offensive TD in that game. Head-scratcher? No...just another solid sign from the books that the play here is the over! I expect 50+ in this one! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 4:25 ET - This is a very tough spot for the Eagles. They are off two of their biggest wins of the season as they beat their biggest division rival threat, the Cowboys, and then went out and got Super Bowl revenge at Kansas City Monday night. Short week, traveling, B2B huge wins...and now hosting a Bills team that is off a huge win after firing their offensive coordinator. Before you say it was only the Jets last week, the fact is the New York defense is respectable and the Bills really did a number on them last week. I look for the Eagles to be emotionally spent for this one and I expect Buffalo to take advantage. The Bills have a bye week on deck so they will go all out here. The Eagles did have a bye week between the Cowboys and Chiefs game but I still think this Philly team is going to be out of gas here. Keep in mind, if that pass was not dropped last week, KC wins that game over the Eagles. In my mind, the current Bills, after the OC change, are truly a much better team than their 6-5 record while the Eagles are a very strong team but truly not a 9-1 team. Just look at this line for validation of that. The odds makers are saying this 6-5 team is equal to this 9-1 team and that is why Philly favored by only 3 even though this game is on their home field! That said, the public likely to look hard at the Eagles here but the sharp money - including ours - will be on the Bills. 10* BUFFALO

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:05 ET - This line is -1 as of about 8 hours before kickoff but why even lay -1 -110 when there is access to -120 or -115 on the money line. The latter is my recommendation on this one and I do look for Denver to come up with a dominating win but, just in case it is tight, would be nice to have a pick'em rather than laying even 1 point. The Browns got a tight win last week but that was at home and now their rookie QB is going on the road for the first time and the Broncos come into this one surging. Also, Cleveland's win with the rookie at QB was over a Steelers team that entered the game 6-3 on the season but has now been outgained in all 10 games this season. The point is that this is going to be a tough spot for Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) as Denver is at home and has won 4 straight games. Even the defense is gaining some confidence as the Broncos have allowed only 17.4 ppg last 5 games and that included facing Chiefs twice plus Bills and Vikings! Both the Browns and Broncos have been winning tight games of late but, again, this is first NFL road game for a rookie QB and if we have another tight game on our hands I will take the now-rejuvenated veteran Russell Wilson over an NFL rookie making his first ever start every time. Look for Wilson and the Broncos to stay red hot. Cleveland might be out of gas off B2B tight, hard-fought late wins over divisional opponents. 10* DENVER (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - This line is currently as high as +2.5 as of about 6 hours before kickoff and I have been waiting but, of course can't wait too long, hoping we might even see +3 start to pop up. Either way, I don't think we'll even need the points. In my opinion, the Steelers are the worst 6-4 football team in the history of the NFL. They have been outgained in every single game this season. Yes, 10 straight games to start the season Pittsburgh has NEVER won the stats battle. It will catch up with them. They lost to the Browns in OT last week and now this week I expect them to lose to the Bengals. We get line value here with a nice home dog spot on Cincy because of Burrow being out. Don't be surprised if Browning plays well here. It is good he got some action last week and now he's been able to work with the first team offense and prepare all week for this game. He is ready and so is Cincinnati. This is a big game for them. The Steelers have revenge here as they suffered a home loss in the most recent meeting between these division rivals. However, Pittsburgh entered this season 1-6 ATS when playing with revenge and facing a team off a SU loss. The Bengals off tough B2B SU/ATS losses and will bounce back here. In fact, Cincinnati is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last 7 times they have entered a game off B2B SU/ATS losses. 10* CINCINNATI +

NFL Friday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 3 ET - We are getting 9.5 points in this one as of early game day morning. Home field matters in this one. I know the Dolphins are off a home game they should have covered (but were done in by turnovers) and that the Jets have struggled badly on offense of late. However, this New York team at home already beat the Eagles and Bills here and 2 of their 3 losses were by 6 or less points. Now look at what the Dolphins have done away from Miami and also keep in mind that, though not too cold, it will be chilly and windy for this game in New York. Note that the Dolphins are just 2-3 SU in games played away from Miami and both victories were by 7 or less points. This is a divisional game and the Jets have a respectable defense that will be amped up for this one. I expect this one, like so many Jets home games this season, to be decided by a slim one-score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS (+) 

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - This total is in the 44 range as of early gameday morning and this is a big battle for 1st place in the NFC West division. The big story leading into this one has been the health of Seahawks QB Geno Smith and, now that he is expected to play, this total is even ticking up a bit. I feel we have huge value with the under in this one. The Seahawks are facing a very tough defense and the last thing that Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll wants to do here is to get into a shootout with the Niners. San Francisco has the much better offense in this match-up. I know the Seattle defense has not been great but they are at home and this is a huge game and the defense is known for stepping at home in primetime key games like this through the years. I sense a raucous atmosphere for this one and the Seahawks to bring it with a huge effort on D here. The Niners have been better since the bye week and I love their defense but lets not forget that San Francisco had produced only 17 points in each of three games before the bye week. The Seahawks have scored an average of just 17.5 points last 6 games. I see some value in this total in the mid-40s. The 49ers have allowed an average of only 14.8 points in their 5 road games this season. But I look for this to be a game management type of game from both sides. The Niners are on the road in a loud venue and want to lean on their defense and a strong ground game. The Seahawks also are likely to be conservative here as they face a top defense and also are well aware of the recent results from SF QB Purdy. Yes this is a playoff revenge game for the Seahawks but they will have their hands full. Look for a hard-fought game here and I am projecting a 21-14 final based on all of the above. That means we have some wiggle room for sure with this big total. 10* UNDER the total in Seattle

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - If you look at the two big home favorites on Thanksgiving Day, the Lions were at home last week too while the Cowboys were on the road. I am not involved with the early game today but, the point is, we are getting bigger points with this match-up when Dallas is definitely in the tougher scheduling situation in comparison with Detroit. The Cowboys were back east in Carolina last week, then traveled back for this Thursday game and they now have a tougher match-up on deck with the Seahawks next THURSDAY too! In fact the Cowboys have a very tough schedule remaining with Seattle, Philly, Buffalo, Detroit and Miami remaining. They have home and away games against the Commanders but the 5 match-ups in between are brutal. I believe Dallas could get caught looking ahead a bit here. Tough spot for Dallas to be such a large favorite. The Commanders are getting nearly two full touchdowns - early game day morning line is 13.5 - and this is a rivalry game. I feel we are getting some extra value here because everyone just saw Washington lose to the Giants but they had an insane 6-0 turnover deficit in that game. They'll clean things up here. Also there is a unique system edge here. The Commanders are a perfect 8-0 ATS when they are coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin and they are facing a divisional opponent that has revenge against them and is entering the contest off B2B SU wins! The Cowboys lost regular season finale at Washington last year and enter this game on a winning streak so the system fits perfectly after Commanders got blasted last week in a fluke final against the Giants that was turnover-driven. 10* WASHINGTON + points

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - This line is currently +3 in some spots as of early game day morning and we will jump on that as I am not sure it will last. There is a lot of +2.5 out there as well. The line is actually a key to my play here. In fact, this will not be the normal write-up you typically see from me. I am sure all of you know plenty about the Eagles and Chiefs and the current situation with each. I am going to talk to you purely about the betting angle with this one as that is the key. How in the world are the Chiefs favored by just 2.5 or 3 points against a team that everyone - save for people from Philly, maybe - would say is better than the Eagles? This is not a neutral site game like the Super Bowl was! This is a night game at Arrowhead and this line is basically telling you that the Eagles are at least as good if not better than the Chiefs. But the betting markets have a general idea of the knowledge that Philly, in between these two most recent years of going to the Super Bowl, had a combined regular season record of 31-33-1 in the 4 seasons from 2018 to 2021. How in the world is this line a -2.5 or -3 for KC when the Chiefs have gone 50-15 over those same 4 seasons? The point is both teams are off great seasons in 2022 and met in the Super Bowl just 9 months ago and both are having great seasons this year, but the Chiefs are the much more consistent team getting it done for many years! Kansas City, as you all know, just won the Super Bowl over this same team on a neutral field! So why is this revenge game for the Eagles priced this way? Someone knows something...and we do too! Based on this VERY interesting betting market for this one and my own interpretation of this match-up, I expect the Eagles will win outright but I am happy to grab the value of taking the points with the field goal available here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - The Broncos have won 3 straight games and it is amazing what confidence can do for a team. So playing at home on Sunday Night Football I do expect another decent performance here and they'll move the ball on this Vikings team. With each win they notch on their belt this Broncos team is starting to believe they can get the job done and win the games with a decent ground game helping to open things up for the passing game to get going again. The Vikings will also move the ball well here as Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise at QB and Minnesota is also hot with 5 straight wins! So you have two teams squaring off here that are each growing with confidence week by week. I know we have seen a huge under trend in NFL primetime games this season but don't be surprised if Thursday's OVER in Baltimore is a sign of things to come. These trends have a way of reversing in the middle portion of the season and this total down around a 41 is just too low of a range in my opinion. Another thing you get with these season-long trends is an eventual overadjustment of the numbers. The Vikings are averaging 24.6 ppg in their 5-game winning streak. They also are, ironically, averaging 24.6 ppg in their 5 road games this season. Denver has scored at least 19 points in 7 of last 8 games and has averaged 22.3 points in their 3-game winning streak. This one gets into the 40s! 10* OVER the total in Denver 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs New York Jets @ 4:25 ET - The dominant line on this one as of about 7 hours before kickoff is a 7.5 but I am not going to let the line being above 7 keep me away from this fantastic spot. This is a revenge spot for Buffalo and the Bills are also coming off their first true home loss (also lost in London, UK) as they fell short against the Broncos Monday. So they have revenge against the Jets from a season opening loss at New York plus they are angry off B2B losses including their first loss in Orchard Park this season. The Jets were a small favorite at Las Vegas and lost outright to the Raiders. Note that the Jets are a long-term 0-11 ATS when they are coming off a game against a non-divisional AFC opponent in which they were favored but lost outright. The Bills are off B2B losses for the first time this season and it has only happened 3 times the past 3 seasons. Each of those 3 times they won their next game by at least an 8 point margin every single time. I know Buffalo has disappointed this season but this is still the stronger team in comparison with the Jets and now they are coming off a home loss as well plus playing with revenge plus we are testing a a play-against angle with the Jets that is 11-0 the last 11. I like our chances for a dozen straight here as the Bills have a fire lit under them for this game! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns -1.5 / -2.5 / or money line -130 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - As you can see from the lines shown here, this one offers a number of options of how to play it as of about 5 hours before kickoff Sunday. What we know here is that the Browns will be without QB Watson and of course RB Chubb has been out since early this season. In fact, that was the first match-up with the Steelers in Pittsburgh. This will be revenge payback here. The Steelers are the worst 6-3 NFL team in recent memory. They have been OUTGAINED every single week this season yet they somehow have miraculously won 6 of 9 games. The nonsense stops here. I know the Browns are off the emotional last-second win over the Ravens last week but this game is huge too. Cleveland will not come out flat here as this game is just too important. They have still been strong on the ground this season even without Chubb. Also, the Browns have a solid rookie option at QB and at least his first start comes at home and against a weak defense. Yes, the Steelers statistically bad against the pass and the run. They also are bad statistically on offense. They have won games with "smoke and mirrors" a lot this season. But now we get line value with the stronger team on their home field and we get that line value because of Watson being out. The Browns are still the better team here and they have revenge on their minds after not only losing Chubb but also losing to the Steelers in that game earlier this season. Cleveland lost that game despite a huge yardage edge. This will be payback! 10* CLEVELAND (-) 

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - Current total in the 46 range as of early morning Thursday. The weather will be perfect in Baltimore for this one. Also, the Bengals are facing an angry Ravens team off a home loss in which they blew the game against the Browns. Note that Cincinnati games are 13-3 to the over in divisional action when the divisional foe they are facing is off a home loss. Also, Bengals divisional road games are 10-2 to the over when the divisional foe they are facing is coming off a home game. In terms of current statistical edges here, I like the fact that Baltimore has averaged scoring 31 points in last 5 games. Also, the Ravens have allowed more than 30 points twice in last three games. The Bengals also off a high-scoring loss and have scored 27 points per game in last 5 games. We should see plenty of points here as Cincinnati is allowing an average of 22 points in their road games this season and they gave up huge yardage in the loss to the Texans last week. The Ravens pile up rushing yardage and the Bengals defense is bad overall including against the run. Cincinnati can score well here however as their passing attack has been piling up yardage under Burrow on a consistent basis for many weeks now.  10* OVER the total in Baltimore

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -7 vs Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - Denver enters this game off B2B wins and they are an underdog in both. However, getting B2B wins like that as a dog is rare for the Broncos. In fact, they are now just 1-9 ATS when they enter a game off a SU win as an underdog. Also, they are just 1-8 ATS when off B2B SU/ATS wins and facing a team with a winning record. That is the case here and I know the Bills have underachieved this season and sit with just a 5-4 record. However, they are more than capable of stepping up big, particularly at home. I know the Broncos just shocked KC but the Chiefs turned the ball over 5 times in the game and were coming off a big win over the Chargers, and they had a huge trip to Europe on deck. That said, it is no wonder Denver got the shocking win and Kansas City turned the ball over like crazy. The Broncos other two wins were against teams having very bad seasons. That said, I love Buffalo at a very fair price here. The line is saying Buffalo would be only -4 on a neutral site and even though they have struggled, I still do not buy the argument that the Bills are only 4 points better than the Broncos on a neutral field...no way! I also like the fact that the Bills are off loss at Cincy and lost the turnover battle 2-0 in this one. I know Denver off a bye week but they are coming in fat and happy and this Buffalo team is angry. Also, Buffalo is 3-0 SU when off a loss this season and is yet to lose B2B games. What about the cover though? Well I love the fact this line is a 7 and want to note too that the Bills are now 7-0 ATS L7 times when favored over an AFC West foe. Look for that run of ATS success to reach 8-0 ATS in this one as everything is set up perfectly! 10* BUFFALO -7

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Jets Pick -115 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - The Raiders are off a 30-6 win over a bad Giants team but the yardage was nearly equal in the game too! The Jets are off a 27-6 loss to the Chargers but they had 3 turnovers in the game and actually outgained LA by nearly 100 yards! That is why we have line value here with a respectable Jets team against a bad Raiders team. Last week's craze results are giving the Raiders more respect from the betting markets than they deserve. This Las Vegas team is still a mess and the Jets had been playing better prior to 3 fumbles proving to be their undoing last week. LV had lost 5 of 7 games prior to the win last week. The Jets had won 3 straight prior to their loss last week. The Jets have the better defense and have the better rushing attack on offense which will be able to exploit the Raiders weakness on D which is the rushing defense. Grab the road team as the Jets Wilson bounces back after the fumble problems last week. He has been better overall since his rough start to the season and has not been throwing picks like he did early on. I like the value with the road team at a great value here. The line is in the pick'em range in the -110 or -115 range. 10* NEW YORK JETS Pick -115

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play LA Chargers (+) vs Detroit Lions @ 4 ET - The Lions are 6-2 this season and have 5 wins by more than 1 point. The combined record of those 5 teams is 14-28. None of the 5 teams have a winning record this season. Now, I am certainly not saying the Chargers are a great team but they are not the ones laying 3 points here nor are they the ones who are the road for this game either. I like the home dog value here with a Chargers team that is 4-2 SU L6 games and who only has 1 loss by more than 3 points this entire season. LA is seemingly always involved in tight games when they do lose. This season they are 2-1 against NFC opponents and the lone loss was by 3 points. In fact, if you look at the last 7 times they were a dog of 2+ points against NFC opponents, they have gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS! This non-conference match-up falls into that category (they were only +1.5 versus Cowboys) and I look for this trend to reach 8-0 ATS as the Lions come off the bye "fat and happy" and so often teams that were rolling and then had a bye can come out flat the very next game. When that game is also on the road and facing a non-conference foe, the odds of having that "flat game" are even stronger! Look for the Chargers, though on a short week and coming back from Monday night game at New York in a win over the Jets, to come out strong here. LA is only 2-2 SU at home this season but the two wins were by a combined 24 points while the two losses were by a combined 5 points! 10* LA Chargers +

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Line as of ultra early Sunday morning is 3.5 points. Statistically when you look at the Steelers you would think you are looking at a 3-5 team (at best!) rather than a 5-3 team. No team in the NFL has won more games with "smoke and mirrors" than this over-rated Pittsburgh bunch. That said, even though I am not crazy about this Packers team, Green Bay certainly has the much better defense in this match-up. I like taking defensive dogs against over-rated home favorites. Also, note that GB is only 1-3 SU on the road but the 3 losses were by an average margin of 2 points per game! The Packers are off a 20-3 win over the Rams last week. Under coach Matt LaFleur, GB is 6-0 ATS when they are installed as an underdog when entering that game off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Steelers have the rival Browns on deck and the last 5 times in the game prior to facing the Browns, Pittsburgh has either lost the game outright or won it by 3 points or less all 5 times. In other words, at +3.5 here, we are dealing with a 5-0 ATS situation for playing against the Steelers in addition to the 6-0 ATS situation in favor of playing on the Packers. Give me the points here! 10* GREEN BAY +

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:15 ET - Current total on this one is 38.5 as of early game day morning. The big story here is the quarterbacks as a pair of rookies are matched up and they are both off tough outings. Also, the under trend has been big this season and particularly in primetime action. However, we are at the midway point of the season, these trends tend to always flip at some point and especially when the adjustments start to become too much. That is the case here. This total is down to 38.5 and I am going to focus on the quarterbacks. Yes, Bryce Young is off a very tough game but it came against the Colts. Sure he made a couple of bad decisions but you know why this game was particularly tough on him before it even started? The Colts likely knew what was coming. Frank Reich is the head coach of the Panthers but he was head coach at Indianapolis each of the last 4 years leading into this one! His background is offensive coordinator. Trust me when I tell you that the Colts had an idea of what to expect facing a Reich-led team that also has a rookie QB. That said, back to looking at Young and note that he had a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his last 5 games before that disaster. Also, he had averaged 226 passing yards in the 4 games before that tough start. His counterpart here is an undrafted rookie by the name of Tyson Bagent. This guy has great mobility and ran for 70 yards last week and can make solid plays out of the pocket. Bagent made some mistakes last week too but now he is back in Chicago for a home start and he has fared well here so far and will be better now after two rough road outings that threw him into the fire. Bagent comes up big here and so does Young and we do not need a whole helluva lot to get this game into the 40s and it looks like nice weather in Chicago for this one too! Carolina is allowing an average of 36 points per game on the road this season! The Bears are allowing 27 points per game on the season. Also, the over is 100% this season and, dating back to last season, 4-0 L4 in Panthers road games against non-divisional opponents! The over is also 100% this season and, dating back to last season, 3-0 L3 in Bears home games against non-divisional opponents! Testing the 100% PERFECT trends here! 10* OVER the total in Chicago

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - Current total as of early game day morning is 39.5 for this one and the Chargers last 5 road games, including playoffs and dating back to last season, have all totaled at least 48 points. From that standpoint, we are testing a 5-0 spot here because we only need 40 points to be a winner! Not only that, those 5 games averaged 54 points apiece! Also, the weather will be good for this one tonight which is good news as it can certainly get rainy and windy this time of year in New York but the weather looks great for this one with light winds and a nice autumn evening on tap. The Chargers have a very solid offense but have struggled on defense. That opens up the door for the Jets to have some success through the air in this one. Keep in mind, the Jets have won 3 straight games and Wilson has been playing better so confidence is up even though they did not score well last week against the Giants. Keep in mind, that one was played in ugly weather conditions. Also, the Jets defense - if you look at the stats - looks strong this season but certainly has given up plenty of yardage against the better teams they have faced. The Chargers will be able to move the ball well here but I do not completely trust their defense on the road. Look for plenty of points in this one as LA has given up at least 24 points in 5 straight road games but they are favored on the road for a reason here. In other words, don't be surprised if this one gets into the 50s and yet we only need 40s to be a winner. This is a great high value spot and also I want to note that under coach Brandon Staley, the Chargers are 7-1 to the over when they are favored and facing an opponent that is off a SU win and ATS cover/tie in most recent game. Also, the aforementioned 5-0 run of high-scoring road games is ready for 6 in a row here! 10* OVER the total in New York Jets

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play the total in Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:20 ET - The total is in the 50.5 range on this one as of about 10 AM ET on game day. This is a revenge game from the post-season last year as certainly Buffalo is out for revenge. The thing is Joe Burrow looked very strong last week for the Bengals and the Bills defense, yardage-wise, has truly not been as good as expected to be coming into this season. I believe Cincy will move the ball very well here. At the same time, the Bills have an ultra dangerous offense when Josh Allen takes care of the ball and he is taking on a rather weak Bengals defense that has struggled often this season. They had to come up big for the upset win over the Niners but so often defenses quickly come back down to earth after a huge game like that. Also, the weather is going to be perfect including light winds in Cincy tonight so we should two solid quarterbacks taking advantage and airing it out in this one. Bills D came up strong on the road in one game this season but they allowed 25 ppg in their other 3 games away from home. The Bengals have allowed 26 ppg in their 3 games against AFC opponents. Combining this plus the weather plus the expectation of strong QB play (Burrow looked healthy, Allen looks for revenge), I really like this over a lot. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - First off, the Eagles are a 3 point favorite here at home and this is a reasonable line considering many people look at the Eagles and Cowboys as roughly equal. However, there always tends to be some additional market love for the Cowboys and that seems to be the case again here as one could easily argue that this line should be higher. Philadelphia is 7-1 this season and that includes blowing out Miami. The Cowboys really do not have a signature win and they are in the same situation here that has seen them get hammered twice already this season. That is, Dallas is off a big home win and now on the road. So far this season they got hammered by the Cardinals and 49ers when in this situation. By the way, Eagles are in a great situation here with a bye on deck and, of course, will be fully prepared to go all out with a week off up ahead! Philly is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times when a bye on deck. Another perfect trend here is that Philadelphia is 8-0 ATS when they are at home with revenge and facing a team that is off a SU win. Logically this makes sense and you can use this situation as a perfect example. Cowboys played almost the perfect game in knocking off Rams (and knocking QB Stafford out of game) last week but now go on the road and face a revenge-minded opponent. The Eagles were 13-1 last season when they then went on the road and lost at Dallas. This will be payback time for that loss and Philly gets the cover here as well to improve on both those 100% perfect trends! The Eagles are so strong against the run and it will force Prescott to try and beat them through the air and he so often struggles in the big games and is on the road for this one as well. Eagles could create problems for him once again here. The recent series between these teams has been dominated by the home team and that continues here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play LA Rams (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - The Rams are on the road and just got hammered 43-20 last week at Dallas so they have no chance here, right? Actually Los Angeles, under head coach Sean McVay, has gone 7-0 ATS when they are on the road and coming off a game in which they allowed more than 35 points. An ugly loss like that is an attention getter! Yes, I know Stafford got hurt last week and likely will not play here. However, Rypien has some NFL experience and, as you guys know, there is nothing too easy in the sports wagering world. Many will be looking and thinking that the Rams are off an ugly loss and the Packers are at home and laying 3.5 points and it just looks too easy, right? How I look at this is in contrarian fashion but certainly not without reason. Rypien has had a chance to prepare all week with the first team guys and he'll be ready and, overall, the Rams are the better team. I know that LA is struggling this season but so too is Green Bay. The Packers have gone just 1-5 SU the last 6 games and the only win was by 1 point! The Packers have failed to cover 5 straight games and that 0-5 ATS run is ready for 0-6 here plus I see the Rams taking their aforementioned situational trend here to a perfect 8-0 ATS the last 8. Grab the points (currently 3.5). 10* LA Rams + points

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans + @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Steelers are the worst 4-3 NFL team to be seen in quite some time. The odds makers know it too. That is why Pittsburgh is HOSTING a Titans team here that is 0-3 on the road this season yet the Steelers are hardly favored here. The current line is 3 points as of early Thursday morning and I am happy to be getting the full field goal here with a team I expect to win outright. It is a miracle that Pittsburgh has a winning record this season as they are one of the worst teams in the NFL statistically on BOTH sides of the ball. Granted the Titans are not a whole lot better but they are are going to ride the positive momentum of a strong performance from QB Will Levis last week while Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky certainly did not look impressive last week. Tennessee has some momentum coming off a win and remember too that one of their road losses was by just a single point. The Steelers do not have a single win by more than a TD this season and, again, they have been so fortunate in those games and yet still barely won. Statistically poor but showing the betting markets a team that was 4-2 entering last week facing a team that was 2-4 entering last week and plus they are at home so, naturally, the Steelers will be getting the attention here. I am grabbing the underdog Titans and fading a Pittsburgh team that has 3 losses by an average margin of 19 points and their wins have been by an average margin of 6 points. Over-rated Steelers as the stats YTD show. 10* TENNESSEE +

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (-) vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - I know this line is currently a 7.5 as of early gameday morning but I feel we have the solid line value here with the home favorite. Both teams off ugly losses but the Lions have looked like the better team this season and have some solid wins to show for it and have a better chance of bouncing back. If you look at Las Vegas, their 3 wins have been over 3 bad teams that are now a combined 7-16 on the season! They are not going to be a Lions team that was 5-1 on the season prior to last week's embarrassing loss. In terms of technical support for this play, the Raiders under head coach Josh McDaniels have gone 1-7 ATS in road games against non-divisional opponents. That includes losing to the Bills and Bears this season by a combined score of 68 to 22. I do not think this one will be that much of a blowout but I do feel strongly that the Lions will bounce back at home and win this by double digits. They are the better overall team on both sides of the ball. Also, in terms of technical support, the Lions are 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they were off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. Additionally, Detroit is a fantastic 7-0 ATS when they are at home off a game in which they allowed more than 35 points! This is the perfect spot to test that perfect trend as the Lions can take advantage of home field and facing a weak Raiders team and turn this into a blowout win as the aforementioned trend reaches 8 straight winners ATS! 10* DETROIT (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Bears just got their 2nd win of the season after getting 3 wins last season. The significance of this is that these are the only 5 wins that Chicago has under head coach Matt Eberflus and they have gone 0-4 ATS so far when coming off a win under Eberflus. In fact, dating back to the season before he got here, fading the Bears when they are off a SU win is now a 5-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS the last 5. When the casual observer looks at this one they will wonder how a 2-win Chargers team can be laying 8 or 8.5 points against a 2-win Bears team! Well, the fact is the line could fool some folks for sure but not us! LA should roll here. The Bears now have a rookie QB from a Division II school making his first ever road start and this is after a "game management" win he notched over a bad Raiders defense last week. Now I know the Chargers defense has struggled too but they have faced quite a tough schedule so far and yet they have been quite solid against the run. That said, what happens if the Bears can't run well and are forced to rely on their rookie QB to win this game? Not much is my prediction and the strength of this Chargers team is its passing attack and the Bears weakness on D is the pass defense. This is a great set up for the home team to dominate especially with them coming off B2B SU losses. The Bears have suddenly won 2 of 3 but this is not a very good football team. Conversely, many had the Chargers pegged to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West this season. I don't think that assessment was entirely wrong either but sometimes it takes awhile for the cream to rise to the top. Look for the aforementioned Bears "play against" angle to move to a PERFECT 6-0 ATS L6 as the home team rolls to a double digit win. 10* LA CHARGERS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - This line is currently a -7 as of early game day morning. Look for the Eagles to roll by much more than just a TD in this one. Philadelphia allowed Washington to score late and take them to OT in the most recent meeting. They will not make the same mistake here. The Eagles were also 3-0 SU and ATS this season in road games before the turnover-filled ugly loss in New York when they fell short against the Jets. All of the above insures proper focus from Philly here even though they do have a big home game versus the rival Cowboys on deck. The Eagles are catching the Commanders at the right time to inflict a blowout defeat upon Washington. The Commanders are struggling badly and reeling after the 14-7 loss to the division rival Giants. New York was just 1-5 on the season and self-doubt is now setting in on this Commanders team that has lost 4 of 5 including their last two home games by a combined score of 77 to 23. When Washington started this season 2-0 it was truly "smoke and mirrors" and reality is setting in. If you look at the stats of these two teams, the Eagles are one of the best in the league on both sides of the ball while Washington is one of the worst on both sides of the ball. It is truly a minor miracle that the Commanders have managed 3 wins this season and they are set up to get hammered here by a focused Philly team that will want to make sure there is no OT possible in this rematch! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - We are getting line value with this total in the 41.5 range as of early gameday morning. Yes the weather will be cold in Green Bay but nothing unusual. It will be above freezing and the winds are light and no precipitation is expected. That said, I look for both offenses to enjoy plenty of success. Don't be surprised if the Vikings defense is worn out after a great effort versus the 49ers last week. That takes a lot out of a defensive unit and now they are on short rest too. As for the Minnesota offense, they could have scored even much more than they did last week and that is helping to give us line value here. Yes, the Packers defense has some decent numbers this season but have you looked at the teams (and offenses) they have faced recently. Note that when they faced a tougher team like Detroit they gave up 34 to the Lions. I look for the over-rated GB defense to have some trouble with a Vikings offense that is growing with confidence as Cousins keeps firing away downfield. Now, I am certainly also well aware that the Packers offense has been struggling and interceptions have been an issue the last two weeks as well. However, don't be surprised if they show marked improvement on the offensive side of the ball now that they are back at home this week. The Packers have played a road-heavy schedule so far this season and that has done no favors for an offense led by a young QB. The Pack offense will bounce back this week as the Vikings defense left a lot on the field against San Francisco in that big upset win Monday night. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The Bills have underachieved so far this season but statistically remain a strong team on both sides of the ball. They have frequently been done in by turnovers and that has held them back. Now they are at home and coming off a loss and are set up well for a big bounce back. I normally do not like to lay big points but this Bucs team is not very good. They have overachieved so far this season as shown by their statistics so far on both sides of the ball. Also, all their wins have come against bad teams. They will get exposed here. Also, they are off a heart-breaking divisional loss to Atlanta. Now they are facing a non-divisional foe on Thursday night. That is a situation that has not gone well for them as, when facing a team from outside the NFC South in a Thursday game, the Buccaneers have gone 0-6 ATS. Look for that trend to reach 7 in a row here. The Bills are angry off a loss and they have won both games this season when they were off a loss. I know one of those was a non-cover but the other 3 wins that Buffalo has this season have all come by a margin of 24 or more more points! I would not be surprised to see a similar result here but definitely can sense that, at the very least, Bills do win this by a double digit margin. 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - Generally speaking I like playing strong teams off losses and fading mediocre or bad teams off wins. That said, this one already sets up perfectly with the Niners off their first loss of the season in an upset defeat at Cleveland plus the Vikes off the divisional win over the Bears last week. The big key though that has me pulling the trigger with a top play here is that there also is strong historical ATS data that adds to the strength factor here. In other words, we have a good situation already as we know we have the better team angry off a loss and we are fading a team off a key win that also has, by the way, alternated ATS wins and losses all season long. However, what really strengthens this one is the fact that the Vikings have failed to cover 8 in a row when they are a dog on Monday Night Football. Also, San Francisco has covered 11 times in a row when they are off an outright upset loss as a road favorite and now facing a team that is off a SU win. The 49ers also have covered 6 straight times when they are on the road on Monday night. As the saying goes, good teams win but great teams cover and I like taking a good team when the are in a spot when they should bring their top effort. That usually ends up being one of their games with a great result! In other words, I am happy to test the triple perfect ATS angles here and we'll lay the points which is currently less than 7 at 6.5 in some spots as of early gameday morning! 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-) 

NFL Sunday 10* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - This is a great spot for a play on the Eagles at a bargain price. As of early gameday morning the line on this one is -2.5 or -3 and Philly is at home here. Their last 4 games were against teams that all now have reached 3 wins on the season. What does that matter here? Well, the Dolphins have 4 games this season against teams that are now a combined 3-21 SU on the season! That is not a mistype. 4 teams now sitting all at 1-5 SU or worse on the season. Miami has faced two teams with a pulse. They allowed 34 points and 48 points in those 2 games. One was a 2-point win and the other was a 28-point loss. I am not sold on this Miami team just yet. I am sold on grabbing the Eagles off a loss when they are coming off a Super Bowl season and have faced the tougher schedule than their opponent and are at home and laying only a field goal. This is a great value. Philly has the much better defense in this match-up. They also are at home and they are coming off a loss. I do not see them losing two straight in a situation like this and their offense is also statistically better than their point total shows. That said, they are capable of trading scores with this high-powered Dolphins team. However, I do think their defense will get enough stops to slow this game down and not let Miami get the kind of game they want this to be. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:05 ET - There is much more than a revenge angle to this game but first off it is worth noting the last meeting between these teams ultimately cost the Rams a playoff spot. The coaches were the same and Sean McVay will be out for payback over Mike Tomlin in this one. Prior to last season's surprising disappointment for the Rams after winning the Super Bowl the year before, the Rams had only missed the playoffs one time after McVay's rookie season with the team. The year was 2019 and the Rams lost as a favorite in a game that would have improved them to 6-3 on the season had they won. LA never lost another game they were favored in the rest of the way but ultimately ended the season 9-7 and needing that 10th win for a playoff spot. The Rams ended the 2019 season as the only NFC team with a winning record to NOT make the post-season. Losing that game to the Steelers (you need to win the games you are favored in) ultimately proved to be the difference! The set up entering this one is great because the Steelers, though off a bye week, got an upset win over the Ravens the week before. Los Angeles is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last 7 times when they are favored by less than 7 points and facing a team that is off an outright upset winner as an underdog! The Rams are catching the Steelers off a key divisional upset win and the timing is perfect for LA to take that run to 8-0 ATS! I am looking for a blowout home win here and taking advantage of the line value. The Steelers have won games with smoke and mirrors this season. They rank horribly from a yardage perspective both on offense and defense this season! It is truly a miracle that they have a winning record this season. We take advantage with exceptional line value here as the Rams have faced a very tough schedule with games against the NFC best 49ers and Eagles already this season and yet LA has survived to at least be 3-3 so far this season and that is despite a 1-2 record in home games because of having faced Philly and SF here. I feel the Rams are a bit under-rated right now as a result and, also, this Steelers team is absolutely over-rated right now! We take advantage. Lay the points (currently -3 as of early game day morning) with the home team in this one. The Steelers have won the recent meetings between these teams but McVay and Company get revenge for the most recent one right here right now with a dominating win. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - Watch the Browns defense soften up after facing a very tough 49ers team last week and notching an upset win. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland could get a boost with the return of QB Watson. Either way, I expect the Browns offense to enjoy a lot more success this week as they go from facing a league-best Niners defense to facing one of the league's lesser defensive units as they take on the Colts this week. However, even with a bad defense the news is not all bad in Indy this week. The Colts offense will again be led by QB Minshew and I expect them to again move the ball well this week but avoid the turnovers that plagued them against Jacksonville last week. Minshew has a history of this. He'll have an ugly game with turnovers and then follow it up with a solid effort. I think he and the Colts are catching the Browns in the perfect spot to get back on track. Cleveland's defense ranks high and that is what is keeping this total low but the Browns D likely to be a bit flat after the upset win over San Francisco. Also, in a bit of a scheduling quirk, Cleveland has had only one road game this season prior to this week and we are now in late October! The Browns defense tends not to travel and they have allowed 24 points on average in last 10 games away from home. So if the odds makers are correct with their point spread here - as they so often are - that would put this game in the 28-24 range if Browns allow their typical road average. That is double digits above the current posted total on this one in the 40.5 to 41 range as of early game day morning! I love the value here considering the situation. 10* OVER the total in Indianapolis

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - This line, as of mid-morning game day, is mostly a -2 or you can look at about -130 on the money line. I definitely like the Saints in this spot a ton even with the line moving slightly toward them. For one thing there are questions about the health of Jaguars QB Lawrence entering this one. But, more importantly, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Jags as they are now on short rest and this is after spending two weeks in London for multiple games there before coming back stateside for last week's game and now they have the short turnaround for the Thursday game and this one is on the road. Also, the Jags have been winning some games with "smoke and mirrors" the way I see it. A lot of favorable bounces have gone the way of Jacksonville and they have had some turnover-fueled wins. The Saints are a solid defensive team as the stats show and I feel we have excellent value with the much better defense at home and coming off a loss and facing a travel-weary foe in this one. 10* NEW ORLEANS (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers + vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - This line is as high as a +2 on the Chargers as of early gameday morning and this is a great spot for the home dog. Los Angeles is coming off a bye. LA has been in their home state ever since a win 3 weeks ago at Minnesota when they knocked off the Vikings. They are now off B2B wins plus expected to get stud RB Austin Ekeler back for this one. He has been out since Week 1 and he is a helluva player! That is when he put up 164 yards of offense, including 117 on the ground on just 16 carries, and he scored a touchdown. He essentially ran roughshod over a Dolphins team that is now 5-1 on the season. Speaking of facing tough opposition, it is something these Cowboys had not done until facing the Niners last week and we all know what happened then. Dallas looked like a high school team trying to take on a college team. Yes, it was that bad. Here is the thing. Dallas is not that good. They are overrated. Look at their skill position players. Look at how they perform against better teams. Prescott always seems to struggle against the better teams as he showed again last week. So the Cowboys stats on the season are quite irrelevant because what really matters is who they have played and then how they perform against better teams. So heading into this week, the 4 teams Dallas had faced entered this week with a combined record of 5-15. Do you really care what stats Dallas put up against such bad teams when they now face a team that is expected to be in the playoffs this season? Also, of the 5 teams Dallas has faced so far this season 4 of them then lost AGAIN this week! Now the Cowboys are on the road AGAIN and they are favored AGAIN and I am going to sit back and happily watch them again disappoint the legion of Boys fans all over the globe. This team is just not strong against the better teams in the league. Year after year they give their fans false hope by annihilating bad teams (which pads their inflated stats) and then struggling against better teams. As I said, last week when we had the Niners over the Cowboys, "Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great!" and also as I alluded to last week I am not a fan of McCarthy as a coach and think he again will get out-coached this week. Give me the home team to make it 3 straight wins. Note their 2 losses were by 2 points to a now 5-1 Miami team and the other loss in OT by a FG. So I will grab the points being offered here but I do not expect to need them. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+) points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This total has dropped to the 43.5 range. I understand the concern here with the Giants often struggling to score points. However, New York is going to get a surprising boost here with Daniel Jones out. I believe Tyrod Taylor - his 3 biggest seasons here in Buffalo - is going to step up with a big game in place of Jones. Going against his former team and with the Bills defense not looking quite as dominant as usual early this season, Taylor and the Giants are going to surprise some people this week. I know they have issues on the offensive line but also Saquan Barkley is likely to play in this one and I am expecting a huge effort in prime-time action on Sunday. The Giants have certainly struggled badly and faced a brutally tough schedule but they will want to step up here in primetime and finally put forth a positive effort on offense. I do expect that to happen but the issue is that the NYG defense has no chance (the way I see it) to stop a Bills offense that has been one of the best in the league statistically so far this season. The Buffalo offense has been piling up yardage through the air but often has been done in by turnovers. Even with those turnover issues, the Bills have averaged scoring 36 points per game last 4 games. The Giants allowing 30.6 points per game on the season and are in trouble here on defense. But look for NY to get an unexpected spark on offense with Taylor - he wants this and will be highly motivated for a strong game! The Giants are averaging 20 points per game on the road this season but are a 15 point dog here for a reason. How about a 35-20 Bills win per the above stats? That works for me and, either way, I am looking for at least 45 in this one but truly 55 would not surprise me at all! 10* OVER the total in Buffalo

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) points @ New York Jets @ 4:25 ET - For those of you that did not know, the Jets win at Denver last week was practically like New York winning their Super Bowl for this season. I am kidding but only partially kidding as the fact is there had been a major war of words between Broncos coach Payton and Jets offensive coordinator Hackett. The later had preceded him at Denver as the head coach and Payton made the mistake of criticizing him badly. Hackett, though only the OC, got the game ball after the Jets win over a bad Broncos team in which New York had over 400 yards of offense and scored 31 points. On that note, this is a big-time flat spot for what is still not a good Jets team and we have some 100% angles here that support 5-0 Philadelphia in this spot. The Jets are 0-5 ATS when they are a home dog after a game in which they scored at least 28 points. Also, in terms of historical data, the Eagles are a perfect 7-0 ATS when they face an AFC East opponent that is coming off a win. So this is a double perfect spot favoring the Eagles with those TWO 100% PERFECT trends. Statistically the Jets are not good on either side of the ball yet they have managed B2B covers and have a couple of SU wins on the season. The Eagles are one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball and this is a value line at less than a TD. Currently the dominant number is 6.5 as of early gameday morning. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) points 

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers (+) points @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - This line has moved to as high as 14.5 as of 7 hours before kick-off. This has me in play here because it is not easy to cover big spreads in the NFL. These guys are professionals and they are paid to play the game for a reason. This Panthers defense is actually statistically better than the Dolphins defense on the season when looking at yards. I know the problem in this match-up for Carolina backers is that the offense is certainly worlds better for Miami that it is for the Panthers. However, the Panthers need to protect the ball, play solid defense, create some turnovers, and catch the Dolphins looking ahead to a match-up with 5-0 Philly that is on deck. The fact is if all those things happened we even could see the biggest upset of the season here. I am not banking on that but I honestly do fully expect this game will be decided by a one-score margin. Even if I am wrong, but not by too much, a 2-TD margin here still gets us the cash. I love the big dog in this match-up as the set-up is perfect. The Giants team the Dolphins just beat is decimated by injuries. The Panthers are off another ugly loss but they played better than the final score indicated. Then when you factor in Miami's trip to Philadelphia is on deck while Carolina can go all out with a bye on deck, this is a fantastic match-up for a big dog cover. The Panthers are 14-2 ATS when they are off a road loss to an NFC opponent by a double digit margin. Trust me, that loss at Detroit got Carolina and Frank Reich's attention as they look to right the ship before the bye week. 10* CAROLINA + points

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - Current line range is 10.5 points and is too much the way I see it! Game on short rest for both teams of course but this favors Denver in my opinion. Chiefs off win but were up in Minnesota and so not only a satisfying but coming off a week that involved travel. Yes the Broncos had to travel to get here of course but is a very short trip from Denver to KC and the Broncos mentality is much different entering this one. Denver is angry off embarrassing home loss to the Jets last week. Denver is now 1-4 this season and they lost 3 fumbles last week in a frustrating defeat. The Broncos will be the ugly dog here that no one wants to back but note that Sean Payton as a head coach has gone 9-3 ATS as a road dog and the last time they were in this role they were blasted by 50 points at Miami so I am quite confident Payton will have his troops ready this go around. Also, Payton's teams have gone 13-3 ATS as a divisional dog. Also, worth noting here is that the Chiefs have the Chargers up next. LA is the only real threat to KC for the division title this season. Could they get caught looking ahead? Keep in mind, the Chiefs are only 1-6 ATS last 7 in divisional games. The Chiefs also have covered just 2 of 8 when facing a team with a winning percentage under .400 so the lookahead theory is evident there too. Additionally, Kansas City has covered just 2 of 13 when coming off a non-conference road game and that was a hard-fought win over the Vikings last week. There is even more ATS stuff on this one from a situational standpoint but I will not bore you with the details. The simple fact is this is too many points to lay on a short week and facing an angry underdog that wants to play much better football this week. The Chiefs still the much better team of course and they find a way to win but I look for this game to be decided by just a 1-score margin as the Broncos put up a helluva fight! 10* DENVER (+)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:15 ET - The current spread on this one is as low as 1.5 as of early game day morning or you also have the option of money line at -125. I am expecting a solid home win here. Why is 1-3 Vegas favored? Think about that for a moment. Yes, Green Bay is coming off a down season but Love has been playing quite well at QB for the Packers and they are a .500 team this season that are only a season removed from producing season after season of solid win totals. Herein lies the key, when a bad team is favored over a team that most would consider to be the better team, it is always for a reason. Of course nothing is fool-proof or 100% but I do like this situation and the line and there actually is a stat on this that is on a 100% ATS run. That is that when the Packers are a dog of 4.5 points or less but facing a team with a losing record, they are 0-7 ATS the last 7 times! Again, like I said above, LV is favored for a reason and yes I am backing a favorite that is only 1-3 SU this season! One thing that helps this week is Jimmy G will be back for the Raiders. They are at home off a loss and I am expecting a strong effort from the hosts here. Also, the Packers are visiting Las Vegas and have a bye week on deck. This is not an easy situation for Green Bay to remain focused. I would not be surprised to see a bit of a sloppy game from the Packers while the Raiders should be razor sharp with focus and also excited to have Jimmy G back under center for this one. Look for the aforementioned ATS trend to make it 8 WINNERS in a row! 10* Las Vegas (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The NFL is the most publicly bet sport worldwide. When public money is involved the public teams get more attention. There are many Cowboys fans out there and they love their 'Boys. That serves us well in cases like this. Take a look at this current line being very nearly just a field goal as of game day morning. That implies that on a neutral field this would be anybody's game. I completely disagree with that assessment. Dallas finally won a road playoff game last season for the first time in a very long time. The fact is the Cowboys often are great at hammering bad teams and inflating their stats in those games but then struggling against quality opponents. It has been this way for many years and has not really shown any signs of changing. Consider this also when assessing whether these teams are equal. Who would you rather have coaching your team? Shanahan or McCarthy? How about QB? Big-game mistake prone Prescott or up and coming Purdy who is off to a phenomenal start this season. The Niners are arguably the best run NFL organization. This team has done things the right way and is running a solid ship. Jerry Jones still has too much say so in this Cowboys organization and that is why they continue to be good but not great! The Niners are built to be a much better big-game team and, in fact, there is another key stat that supports that as well as supporting our play here. The Niners are 7-0 ATS in last 7 home games against an NFC opponent with a winning record. Keep in mind the 3-1 Cowboys have revenge here but they had that last year too when they faced the Niners in the playoffs after losing to them in the post-season before that too. Yes, that was the 2nd straight season that ended for Dallas in the post-season at San Francisco. Revenge is often over-played and the Cowboys could not get their revenge then and they will not get it now. Dallas overlooked Arizona two weeks ago and lost there. The Cowboys 3 wins are against teams that currently have a combined 3-9 record this season. At least the Niners have beaten a couple teams that have a .500 record so far this season plus they hammered the same Cardinals team the Cowboys overlooked. This is the difference of a well-run professional organization compared to a team that does not have the same leadership from top to bottom. This is a value line for the home team in my opinion. Lay it! 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:05 ET - The Rams won the Super Bowl in February of 2022. Then they went 5-12 in the 2022 season that followed that. Which team is LA this season? Well it is still a little too early to tell for sure but Los Angeles certainly is not at the level of the Super Bowl team. I know Cooper Kupp is back this week for the Rams but he may not be performing at his typical elite level in his first game back. Both teams have some injury issues but Rams hip injuries to Matthew Stafford plus their starting RB could keep those guys from being as strong as usual. If you look at the week 1 stats when the Rams beat the Seahawks you will know that the result was not commensurate with the stats. Other than LA has two losses, including to a struggling Bengals team, and an OT win last week over the Colts in which the Rams blew a huge lead. I just do not think this Rams team is on the level this Eagles team is. Philly is on a mission to get back to the Super Bowl and to win it this time. They have a road game on deck in New York but against the Jets rather than the long-time rival (but struggling) Giants. That said, there is clearly no lookahead here and I expect a very focused Eagles team to come out and dominate in the trenches in this one. Yes I know Fletcher Cox is out for Philly but they have more defensive line depth than they use to. Eagles off an OT win versus Washington in which they gave up a late score to the Commanders that forced OT. That was only a 3-point win but 16 of 18 wins before that came by 5 or more points for the Eagles. In other words, if you like them to win here you can also see why you can feel comfortable laying the current number of 4 points too. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens -4.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - We get some line value here because the Steelers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings but this year Pittsburgh is way down in my opinion. I know they are 2-2 on the year but their stats tell the real story. The Steelers do not run or throw well. They also do not defend the pass well and do not stop the run. The Ravens have edges all over the field in this one. They also have revenge on their minds from losing the most recent meeting late last season. Remember that Lamar Jackson was hurt last season and missed BOTH meetings with the Steelers. Look for the  Pittsburgh defense to struggle with him in this one! The Ravens have great numbers on defense so far this season and big rushing numbers on offense. That is a combination that can win plenty of road games and especially when Harbaugh is your coach and your QB is healthy! The Steelers were very fortunate to beat the Browns (just look at the stats from that one) and their other win was against a dysfunctional Raiders team. Now they face a Ravens team with which coach Harbaugh has produced only one losing season in his 15-year tenure! Steelers QB Pickett expected to play but could be running for his life with this one and they are still without a starting WR plus now lost their starting TE to injury! 10* BALTIMORE -4.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET in London, UK -Current line as of about 4 hours before kick-off is a 4.5 and this is a great value. Buffalo got their wake up call early this season as they already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders the next week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not looking back and certainly showing they are not done yet because they have now won 3 straight games and scored more than 35 points in each win! Buffalo did it again last week with a huge victory over Miami and the Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road in London. In fact, note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won eight in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. That trend continues here as Jacksonville is over-rated in my opinion. Yes they have an edge here in that they were already in London for this games as the knocked off the Falcons here last week. However, the yardage was roughly equal in that game and Atlanta actually had more first downs in the game but were done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit. We get line value here because of the scheduling situation seeming to so strongly favor the Jags. I might argue that Jacksonville having now been in London for so long that it could even be a distraction for them in preparations for this game. Plus the Bills have been one of the top teams in the NFL in recent seasons. The Jaguars had some good fortune last season but this team is still not on the Bills level and that 8-0 ATS situation I mentioned above will turn into 9-0 ATS here! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +6 @ Washington Commanders @ 8:15 ET - Both teams off tough losses last week but the Commanders was even tougher the way I see it. They lost in OT at Philly and that is a divisional match-up for Washington and was a physical battle that took a lot out of them. The Bears, on the other hand, are coming off a non-conference battle versus the Broncos. Though it is still sickening to Chicago that they blew a huge lead against Denver and lost, I also think they will be better set physically and mentally for this match-up at DC. Note that Chicago has lost 14 straight games SU and is on the road here yet getting less than TD. Must be a mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about purported "odds maker mistakes" and this is particularly true in the NFL. In other words, grab the points with the team on a 14-game losing streak. Chicago is 0-6 ATS last 6 road games but the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in Commanders games this season. The latter of those two trends is the one I see continuing here. The Bears dominated their game statistically but were done in by turnovers last week. Conversely, Washington was outgained by Philly and keep in mind that even includes all the yardage the Commanders picked up at the end of regulation with a game-tying drive when Eagles went in to prevent defense. I like the fact the Bears showed improvement on both sides of the ball last week and they will build off that here and actually have a good shot at finally getting back into the win column. At the very least, they get the road cover here the way I see it! 10* CHICAGO +6

NFL Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Under head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants have been strong off a loss. They won at Arizona in Week 2 after ugly home loss to Dallas the week before. Now, off an ugly road loss against a strong 49ers team, the Giants are at home and ready to respond. Not only are they 12-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday night game, they also went 4-0 ATS last season when they were at home and coming off a loss. That means that, under coach Daboll, the Giants are a perfect 4-0 ATS when at home and off a loss. I know they are 1-2 SU this season and have some ugly stats but, keep in mind, the Giants two losses were to a pair of the best teams in the NFL and the Cowboys and Niners are now a combined 7-1 SU on the season. Yes, the Seahawks are 2-1 SU this season but 2 of their 3 games have been against teams that are combined 2-6 SU on the season! Early in the season you can get some extra line value based on early market perception influenced by a lack of factoring for the schedules. By the way, so far this season, the Chiefs and Eagles failed to cover on the Thursday night games and each covered their very next game. Look for the Giants, after the ATS beatdown at San Francisco, to continue that trend. I love the fact that the Giants have yet to get an ATS cover this season as that has led to line value here. We step in and take advantage. The Seahawks are off B2B covers but this followed a 1-9 ATS stretch dating back to last season and I feel Seattle is very over-valued here on the road. The Giants have the rest edge here. Again, consider the strength of schedule too. The Seahawks have faced 3 non-playoff teams from last season that went a combined 21-30 SU. The Giants have a win in the game they were supposed to win and a pair of losses in games against teams that went, including post-season, a combined 28-11 SU last season and are also now 7-1 SU this season so far. The home dog is the play here and, though 1.5 is the dominant number, there is some 2 out there as well. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS + points

NFL Sunday 10* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - I am not a big fan of laying big points in the NFL but this Jets team is really bad right now. Currently this line is in the 8.5 range but there is some 8 out there and I am expecting a double digit road win here. Even though the NYJ defense can be solid and will do their best here, this offense just can not be trusted at all. They have been so bad as many are questioning the entire QB situation of course ever since Rodgers went down with injury right away in week 1. That game in week 1 was a bit of a miracle win for New York and now reality has quickly set in. The same holds true for the Chiefs. They had a shocking loss in week 1 but their reality has set in now as they are off B2B wins and really dominated the Bears last week. I know it was just "da Bears" but the defending champs are a confident group that really has their offense clicking now on all cylinders. The Jets had 171 yards last week and the Chiefs had over 450 yards of offense last week. This will be a blowout. KC will have some extra focus here and will really bring an A game effort here. Even though they are the defending champs, the primetime games still carry extra weight. Having lost the first one this season is something the Chiefs have not forgotten and they want to make amends for that right here right now in New York. I look for them to do just that. The last 6 times on MNF that they were facing a team off a SU loss they showed no mercy to say the least. KC went 6-0 ATS in that situation and they do it again here as the Jets struggles on offense will be the key culprit here. 10* KANSAS CITY (-) points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:05 ET - When you look at the point totals that the Raiders have put up, it is not a big surprise that this total has dropped some and is down to a 48 as of early gameday morning. However, all this means for us is even more value with an over that should get well into the 50s. The Chargers defense has had some struggles and so too has the LV defense. Also, the Raiders have moved the ball better than their point totals show as they also have been hurt by turnovers. As for Los Angeles, their offense has been great so far this season and they are favored by nearly a touchdown here with good reason! So if Las Vegas just gets into the 21 range and the odds makers are right about this line, you already have a game that is in the upper 40s. The fact is the Chargers have allowed an average of 29 points per game this season and never allowed less than 24. The Raiders have allowed 30.5 the past two weeks and their defensive numbers were only better last week because of facing a Steelers team that has an anemic offense. The Raiders defense will get lit up here but look for them to also have success against a Chargers defense that is dead last in pass defense so far this season. 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +9 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - First off some technical stuff here. The Commanders just got throttled at home by the Bills last week - we were on Buffalo in easy win - but Washington is in a perfect 7-0 ATS spot here. Generally I like decent teams off horrible losses and the Commanders have a great divisional angle here. When they are playing a divisional foe and Washington is off a double digit ATS loss and the team they are playing is on a winning streak of at least 2 games plus playing with revenge, the Commanders have covered 7 times in a row. Sometimes revenge is overplayed and I know Washington won at Philly the last time these teams met and it ended the Eagles unbeaten start to last season. That said, Philly wants this game but they are on short rest off a MNF Game plus still have been dealing with some injury issues. I am not saying they won't get revenge and at least win this game but I think asking them to win this by double digits is asking too much. Eagles are 3-0 this season but statistically have not been that dominant. They will look to pound the ground game and grind out a win here but Washington has enough firepower to keep this one close. The last 5 times Philly entered a game off a SU road win they have gone 3-2 SU but all 3 wins were by 7 or less points. I look for a very tight game here as the Commanders respond off an embarrassing loss. Look for the above trend I mentioned to improve to 8-0 ATS as the dog gets the cover here. 10* WASHINGTON +9

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 9:30 AM ET - The dominant number as of about 5 hours before kickoff on this one is a 3 but there is some 3.5 out there and I would recommend jumping on that now if you can. The Jaguars are off B2B losses and the Falcons have the better defense and are off their first loss of the season. I could see Atlanta bouncing back huge here off a defeat in which they scored just 6 points. They will take advantage of a weak Jaguars defense. Much is made of the travel here and that Jacksonville is use to it and the Falcons are not - in terms of London games. But to put this in proper perspective, the USA is so big that went teams go East to West they are sometimes traveling 5 to 6 hours in the air just to get to the West Coast and it is a 3-hour time difference to adjust the body clocks. The point is that going Atlanta to London is about 7 hours in the air on a non-stop flight and when you land there it is a 5-hour difference on the body clock. So the point is that going to London for an NFL team in the Eastern Time Zone is not much different than going to a West Coast NFL city. Speaking from experience as I live in Europe right now, the travel going back to USA is tougher for sure. It is longer and more difficult to adjust the body clocks. That said Jaguars being used to this trip is not relevant in my book. Both teams coming off ugly losses and I trust the better defense getting points! Very quietly these Falcons have allowed an average of only 18 ppg their last 9 games as they finished last season strong too on the defensive side of the ball. The Jaguars have a long-term history of struggles against NFC opposition and, within that, they have actually lost 10 in a row ATS when facing a team from NFC South. I look for that play-against situation to reach 11-0 ATS here as Falcons have great shot at outright win but should at least get the cover. 10* ATLANTA + points

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - This total has mostly held at 46 but is starting to drop to 45.5 at the time of this posting Thursday morning. The Lions caught the Falcons last week off a tight win over, ironically, these same Packers. It was Atlanta's first road game of the season and the perfect spot for the Falcons offense to fall flat and they did just that. Sure some credit is due the Lions defense but lets not forget the week 1 win over KC saw the Chiefs, like a lot of teams, struggle on offense. Detroit then gave up plenty in the 37-31 OT loss to Seattle. I do like the Lions offense so far this season but am not yet sold on the defense. That said, the Packers should move the ball well here. They have really played well with Jordan Love at QB. Keep in mind in limited action last season he also played well behind long-time Packer Aaron Rodgers - now with the Jets but out with injury. The point is that Love is finally getting his opportunity and he is making the most of it. Now he can build momentum off a come-from-behind win last week. GB got that key win after a very slow start and lets not forget the Pack averaged 31 points in the first two games this season. So the point is that both teams are off lower-scoring games last week but these offenses showed what they could do the first two weeks this season. Considering the low-scoring trend of primetime NFL action this season are you surprised the odds makers have this total set in the mid-40s? Trust me it is not a mistake and the books are honestly expecting the same thing I am here and I am looking for 50+ in this one. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 7:15 ET - The current dominant number on this one is 5 though you might find a stray 4.5 out there - at least as of very early game day morning. This is a battle of early season unbeatens and the Eagles have started at least 3-0 (last season started 8-0), 3 times in the past 9 seasons. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has not gone 3-0 in nearly TWO decades as you have to go all the way back to 2005. The Bucs have been around since 1976 - nearly a HALF century - and yet they only have started a season 3-0 THREE times! As you can see with historical odds like this, the Eagles certainly are the likely team to win this SU but what about the all-important cover? Well, Philly has 9 straight wins by 5 or more points and 15 of last 17 by 5 or more points. So 5 may not seem like a key number but it has been for the Eagles and, either way, look for a win by at least a TD in this one. Tampa Bay's last 7 SU losses have all come by 6 or more. The Eagles are so strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that will be key here. Also, imagine you are starting a team would you rather have Jalen Hurts at QB or Baker Mayfield? That is no disrespect to the latter but I have a feeling he is going to get a reality check this week against a tough Eagles defensive line that will pressure the hell out of him. Also, Sirianni is now 25-11 SU in regular season NFL as a head coach while Bowles is 36-50 SU as a head coach. The Eagles also have the rest edge after playing on Thursday last week so they have had extra time off compared to TB as the Bucs beat the Bears Sunday. The Eagles and Buccaneers have each played the Vikings this season. The Bucs were outgained 369 to 242 by Minny. Philly outgained Minnesota 430 to 374. In other words, the D numbers were similar but the Eagles offense put up nearly 200 yards more than TB. The Bucs are a decent team but they are over-rated right now. Philly is a Super Bowl contender. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) the points