Rotation #552 NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The 76ers finished the season with 8 straight wins. They rested Embiid in the season finale and he is listed as questionable for this game as a result. However, there is no way he is missing this game. Philly is on a roll and ready to advance and the Heat are still a strong team but they are not on the same level they use to be. Also, some news on the injury front from Miami. Though Duncan Robinson is probable for this game, Terry Rozier has been ruled out and this does impact the depth of Miami for this game. The 76ers 8 straight wins have come by an average margin of 12.6 ppg! The Heat, prior to a double OT win in their final road game of the season, were on a 5-5 run in road games. The margin of defeat in 4 of the 5 losses was 6 or more points. We have solid value here with this line currently as low as a 4.5 as of overnight hours heading into Wednesday! The Heat won the first two games with Philly in the regular season but Embiid missed both of those. The Sixers have won the last two meetings to wrap the regular season series and that was even without Embiid in one of those as well. He is back, the Sixers are confident, they are rested, they are at home, and this is a manageable line. Lay the short number with the hosts in this one! PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 1 ET - The Nets have a lengthy injury list for this one but all the guys listed also missed Friday's game against  the Knicks and Brooklyn lost that game by just 4 points! Also, the Sixers are motivated to win this game but they don't have to win in blowout fashion. I could see Philly trying to build a huge lead and then letting it slip away later and settling for a win by about 10 points. There is no reason to push it here. The Sixers do want to win for playoff positioning reasons but they also want to stay healthy for the post-season. Remember that Embiid is still managing the recovery process with his left knee. So this one will likely be a closer game than many are expecting. Also, Brooklyn is just 10-13 SU last 23 games but only 3 of those 23 games was a loss by more than a dozen points! This line is in the 15.5 range and, knowing Philly wants to rest guys, I just can not foresee this game being a complete blowout. BROOKLYN (+)

NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - The 76ers have Embiid on the injury report but it is not due to injury but just managing his minutes as he recovers from the past injury that kept him out so long. However, I would be surprised if he does not play here. The Sixers are still trying to move into a playoff position and avoid the play-in portion of the post-season! By doing this Embiid could rest then! That said, and with time off both in front of this game and after this game, I expect Embiid to play here. Even if he does not, I still like the red hot Sixers to roll at home in this game! As for the Magic, Franz Wagner may not play here as he is dealing with a current ankle injury. Orlando has been missing him and he is again listed as questionable. Also, you know the Philly fans are going to give former Sixer Markelle Fultz a helluva tough time here as well and this Magic team has lost 3 straight road games. So Philly has won 6 straight games and Orlando has lost 3 straight road games and all by 9 or more points so covering the spread should not be an issue here either. Philly has also won both meetings this season and each victory was by at least 15 points. Also, dating back to last season, the 3 last meetings between these teams have all been Philadelphia wins by a double digit margin! It might seem like a big line here but it is set that way for a reason and this Sixers team is on a roll and they will not slow down here and the road slump for Orlando continues here. This line is in the 7.5 range and we will lay it with confidence! PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 -115 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Pelicans off B2B road wins at Phoenix and Portland. Interestingly enough, the road team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last 6 New Orleans games. Look for that road team trend to reach 7 in a row here as, of course, there is a reason the Kings are such a small home court favorite here! Note that Sacramento is 0-4 SU versus the Pelicans this season! In other words, we are testing multiple perfect trends here. The Kings enter this game having lost 5 of 8. I know the Pelicans have not been lighting the world on fire either of late but the road team trending above as well as the series dominance this season is what makes it easier to fade the slumping Kings here. Losing Huerter and Monk, one mid-March one late-March, also hurt the depth of Sacramento. Additionally, Keegan Murray is dealing with a left calf issue. He played through it in most recent game but is questionable here. The Kings might rest him with this being the front end of a B2B situation. Even if he plays, he is not 100% and the already short-handed Kings are in trouble here. The Pelicans have been without Brandon Ingram for a few weeks now but have 3 wins over playoff teams (Heat, Bucks, Suns) the past few weeks without him. Over a similar period, the struggling Kings have only beat 1 playoff team. As noted above, this line is set this way for a reason and the small dog road team is the way to play this one! Look for the Pelicans to make it 5 in a row over Sacramento plus the road team trend reaches 7 in a row! NEW ORLEANS +1.5 -115

NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:10 ET - Excellent line value here with this line down to a -6. Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B but none of their guys played more than 27 minutes in yesterday's game. It was a big blowout win at Memphis and so none of the starters played in the 4th quarter either! Also, the 76ers need every win they can get right now and they have a great chance to win out as this is their final road game of the season. The Sixers are trying to move up to a playoff spot rather than being stuck in a play-in spot. As for the Spurs, they had been playing better and also playing much more competitive basketball. But now they have had a number of guys lost to injury. They just recently had a pair of guys (Vassell and Sochan) shut down for the season. Also, another player (Osman) is out for this game. Those guys combine to average 38 points per game. San Antonio will have their hands full with a Sixers team rejuvenated by the recent returns of Embiid and Maxey. Even if the Sixers rest a player or two in the B2B (which I do NOT expect) I would still like Philly here as the Spurs are definitely quite short-handed for this one and the 76ers have now won 4 straight games. The Sixers are well-aware they have 3 winnable home games remaining after this as well and they want to get into a playoff spot and avoid the play-in. Perfect scenario for another highly-motivated effort for the road team. Lay it. PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Friday Miami Heat (-) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:10 ET - As of very early game day morning the Heat are in the -2.5 to -3 range and some money lines are still as low as the -125 to -135 range. I am jumping all over this one early because the Rockets season ended last night. Houston is still mathematically alive but their season effectively ended after they wasted a glorious opportunity last night. The battle for the final play-in position for the upcoming post-season is basically down to just Golden State and Houston. The Rockets were hosting the Warriors last night. They had a chance to move within 2 games of GS with a win. Instead they lost and dropped 4 games back with only 6 games to go. That said, their season is finished and they know it! For me, it is not just about the loss last night, it is the fact that the Rockets got blown out on their home floor and actually were outscored by the Warriors in all 4 quarters! What kind of team is that when you can't accomplish anything in the biggest game of your season! Give some credit to the Warriors for sure but the fact is the Rockets are as soft as a wet paper towel right now! The Heat come into this game hungry and fired up off the home loss to the Sixers last night. That was a tight game and Miami is in a battle with teams like the 76ers and Pacers to secure the #6 seed in the conference and avoid the play-in round. That said, though they fell short last night, the Heat but in a helluva strong effort. Also, they could get Herro back tonight on the floor and that will be another big boost. The Rockets lost starter Amen Thompson to a rolled ankle late in yesterday's game. He has averaged 30 minutes per game last 9 games and they may not rush him back considering their season, as noted above, is effectively over now. This is a great spot to back the Heat at a great number! MIAMI (-)

NBA Wednesday New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 8 ET - This line has dropped down a little from 4.5 to 3.5 and I like the value with the home team laying a short price. They have revenge from a loss at Orlando less than 2 weeks ago. That is actually one of the few wins that the Magic have over a quality opponent in many many weeks! If you look at Orlando's schedule, even though they have been hot overall, they have played a ton of bad teams. The Magic schedule has been friendly, to say the least, but that changes here. They are on the road and facing an angry revenge-minded team. The reason the Pelicans are not in a good mood is they are off B2B losses in addition to seeking revenge here. Very early this season New Orleans had a 5 games losing streak. However, from mid-November onward, the Pelicans have gone 5-1 SU when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. That said, strong odds on a response here from New Orleans even though they are still without Brandon Ingram. By the way, those 5 wins when in this situation included many double digit blowouts and the smallest margin of victory was a 7 point win. The Pelicans roll here. Home court, revenge and situational factors all are in favor of the Pelicans in this one. NEW ORLEANS (-)

NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:30 ET - Joel Embiid is coming back and YES I do know that it is NOT tonight but just the fact he has been practicing with the team and is expect to see his first action on the Sixers upcoming road trip has the 76ers buzzing! They have been ultra competitive of late even without him and the 5.5 points (as of about 8 hours before tipoff) is definitely a solid value in this spot. Philadelphia has won 2 of last 3 at home and the lone loss was by a single point (to the Clippers) and the Sixers were robbed by a foul that wasn't called in the final seconds. The point is Philly could easily be 3-0 L3 at home. Also, their loss just before the 15-point win over Toronto was a defeat by just 3 points at Cleveland. So the Sixers are already gearing up for Embiid's return and they catch the Thunder at a great time for an upset. Oklahoma City is off B2B wins over Phoenix and then at New York (by 1 point) and they have a tougher match-up with Boston on deck. The Thunder might underestimate the Embiid-less Sixers in this one and Philly has great upset potential here with the way they match up with the Thunder. If they do lose, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. Grab the points with the home dog. PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Saturday Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:40 ET - The Bucks will be without Lillard here while the Hawks could have Jalen Johnson back and he has been playing well. Speaking of playing well, Atlanta has been overall as they have won 4 straight including beating Boston twice! The Hawks have won 7 of last 8 home games while the Bucks are on the road and have some injury issues to deal with here also. Some guys are not 100% for sure. Also, Milwaukee has lost 3 straight road games and 5 of last 6. This is a high value home dog spot as the Hawks have been the hotter team of late plus they are the healthier team right now even though they remain without Trae Young of course. Dejounte Murray is off a 44-point game and has scored 28 points or more in 4 of his last 5 games. This is a classic case of long-term metrics getting too much credit compared to the true current situation. As a result, line value that is off the charts good as Hawks stay hot at home while the Bucks road struggles continue. ATLANTA (+)

NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers are fired up after they were robbed by the refs at home against the Clippers and it cost them a win. Of course that does not mean they automatically bounce back with a SU win here. However, it does mean they will give a strong effort and that should be enough for at least the ATS cover in this one. They are getting 8.5 points as of about 6 hours before tipoff for this one and the Cavs seem over-valued here. Even if they get some players back for this one, the  Cavaliers are truly a banged up team right now. Also, though the Sixers have been struggling they are competing hard and Cleveland has not exactly been lighting the world on fire of late. In fact, the Cavs have lost 7 of 10 games and 1 of the wins was by just 5 points. The Sixers are in this one all the way. Philly is only 3-4 SU last 7 games but 2 of the 4 losses by 7 or less points. Huge hungry underdog value here as 76ers come out firing on all cylinders after feeling they were dealt a bad break loss against the Clippers. The Sixers have won 2 of the 3 meetings this season and their only loss was by 3 points in overtime! Grab the generous points here. PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +6 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:40 ET - I really want to take the money line here but the 6 points is certainly nice, added insurance but take a good look at this one because the SU trending is quite impressive! The Clippers are only 5-7 SU L12 games. Simply put, LA has just not been playing that well. This is especially true when you look at the teams they have beaten. They beat the Bulls twice but Chicago has a losing record this season. They beat the Blazers twice but Portland is a poor 19-53 this season. So the only other win must have been against a powerhouse, right? Nope, not at all. The other win was over a Rockets team that would not even make the play-in round of the post-season if the season ended today. All of this said, these struggling Clippers are now favored by a half-dozen points against a respectable Sixers team. Of course Philly is without Embiid and yes the Clips have revenge here for the loss to the 76ers in LA last week. However, this line is still far too high in my opinion. The 76ers are happy to be back home as they have played only two home games in the last 2 and 1/2 weeks and yes they won both games. Grab the points here as the value is with the home dog in this one. PHILADELPHIA +6

NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B spot but they have momentum on their side after knocking off the Clippers last night in LA. Also, they only had two players go big minutes in that game so this Philly team will not be as worn out as one might expect in a B2B. Additionally, Sacramento just got back from a trip back east. Yes, the Kings were off yesterday but they had a lot of travel including coming all the way back from Orlando. Also, if you look at the long-term trending of the Kings this season, they do not have a history of blowing teams out. They are only 18-15 SU last 33 games and many of those wins by a single digit margin. In fact, only 9 times in last 33 games have the Kings won the game by double digits. I like this hungry Sixers team in this spot to stay within the inflated number. They have the shooters to hit enough shots from outside to stay within striking distance of Sacramento throughout this game. PHILADELPHIA +9.5

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - If you look at the board tonight there are 8 games and only 3 of them are match-ups in which both of the teams have a winning record. The Heat / Cavs appears to be an even match-up and Cleveland is favored by about their home court edge. Makes sense. The Celtics are a decent sized favorite over the Bucks but Boston is an insane 31-3 at home this season so that line makes sense as well. This Philly / Phoenix game is the outlier in my opinion. The Suns just have not been playing well enough to justify this large of a line. The Sixers, even while dealing with injuries, remain very scrappy and they have made some changes in their lineup/playing rotation of late that are already starting to pay dividends. That said, the 8.5 points here appears to be on the high side. The Suns have won just 6 of 13 games and the average margin of victory in the 6 wins, not including OT points, was just 6.5 points. Phoenix just has NOT been blowing teams away of late. The Sixers are just 5-5 L10 games but 4 of the 5 losses by a single digit margin! Don't be surprised when this one goes down to the wire. PHILADELPHIA +8.5

NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Denver Nuggets @ 9 ET - Yes the Timberwolves have a cluster of injuries at the big man position. However, the last time these teams met Jokic had a solid game for the Nuggets and yet the Wolves still won the game by 22 points. Outside of Jokic, the Nuggets mostly play a "small ball" lineup which is the same type of lineup Minny will be playing here because of injuries to their bigs. So, the point is that Jokic will again "get his" in this game but I don't see that translating to a huge road win here. Minny is tough at home and this is a key divisional battle and they will not just "lay down" here because they are without Towns and Gobert. In fact, you might even see a more feisty effort from the Wolves here as a result! Look for Minnesota to be aggressive here as it is the wounded dog that often bites the hardest. This is just too many points to give the Timberwolves when at home and hosting the defending champs and a division rival. Playing their first home game in two weeks, Minnesota is absolutely going to make the most of it here! They are getting as many as 7.5 points here as of very early game day morning! We'll take it! MINNESOTA (+)

NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers will take advantage of a Heat team dealing with a myriad of injuries right now. Yes, Philly is still without Joel Embiid but he is back practicing with the team and spirts are up for the Sixers team right now as they know he'll be back sooner rather than the later. Even without Embiid, the Sixers are the overall healthier club in this match-up plus they are at home. Note that Miami is only 4-5 L9 games and here is the kicker to that! One of the wins was against a slumping Jazz team that has lost 12 of 15 games. The other THREE WINS were against a Pistons team that is one of the worst in the league. Beating those teams and winning AT Philly are vastly different things! Even a wounded Sixers team is far superior to the Pistons and the current version of the Jazz. That said, the home team should win this in solid fashion as they take advantage a Heat team that is dealing with too many banged up guys right now. PHILADELPHIA -2

NBA Thursday Portland Trail Blazers +10.5 vs New York Knicks @ 10 ET - Of course the Knicks should win this game SU but I don't see them winning this in a complete blowout. This is their first game on this west coast swing after playing 4 straight home games. Also, the tougher games on this road trip are up next with facing the Kings, Warriors and Nuggets. I just can't see New York being too excited nor too focused on facing this Blazers team they already beat handily two months ago in New York! That said, this spot could be a bit tricky for the Knicks. The Trail Blazers have gone 4-4 SU L8 games. Granted, the wins were against teams that are not on the level of this New York team. However, just getting some SU wins is a confidence boost for a Blazers team having a tough season. Also, some of the players they are missing are close to coming back as well. That is also a positive in terms of creating good vibes and positive energy for the team. I look for them to put up a strong fight on their home floor here and this game will be decided by single digits. PORTLAND +10.5

NBA Saturday Denver Nuggets Pick -110 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Lakers have been playing well at home this season including 4 straight wins. However, the Nuggets have won 5 straight overall and are the much stronger team in this match-up. They just beat Miami in most recent game even though Murray was only able to play 14 minutes. Even if he does not play tonight I still like Denver in this spot. But don't be surprised if he does suit up for facing the Lakers here. The Nuggets have 3 straight wins over solid teams in their 5-game run. Although the Lakers have won 4 straight at home, the last 3 wins were against the Wizards, Pistons and Spurs. Those are the 3 worst teams in the NBA with a combined record of 30-149 on the season! Now they face a 40-19 Denver team that is one of the top teams in the NBA and the defending champs. The Nuggets have beaten the Lakers 3 straight time and in both match-ups this season and now they make it 4 in a row and get the season 3-game sweep over this over-rated LA bunch. DENVER Pick -110

NBA Monday Sacramento Kings (-) vs Miami Heat @ 10:10 ET - This is a revenge game for the Kings after they lost at Miami 115 to 106 on the final day of January. In that game, Butler and Richardson scored nearly half the points (55) and neither are playing tonight. Also, two other starters - Herro and Rozier - are questionable tonight. Herro had 14 points (plus 8 rebounds and 8 assists) and Rozier had 10 assists in that game. With a much more winnable game tomorrow at Portland and Butler coming back tomorrow, one has to wonder if the Heat might be very conservative with their injury situation here rest Herro and Rozier too. Even if those guys play they are for sure missing Butler and Richardson. I just don't think Miami has enough to hang around here despite the favorable scheduling situation. Yes the Heat have been off and Kings in a B2B after the big divisional win over the Clippers down in LA. However, prior to a 4 point loss in most recent game, 11 of last 12 Miami losses have come by 8 or more points! Those dozen losses by an average of 14 points! So unless you think the very short-handed Heat win this outright, is there really any value in the points? In this case the odds say no and I expect Kings to roll by double digits as they have just too much offense for Miami in this one. The number is currently as low as a 7 as of 16 hours before tipoff! SACRAMENTO (-)

NBA Thursday Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - Current line on this one is 11.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff. With the Grizzlies off a rare win and the Bucks off an ugly home loss, it might seem like the perfect spot to back Milwaukee. However, Memphis has been scrappy even in their losses and I just not see them getting totally blown out at home here in this one. Note that Memphis is only 4-9 SU last 13 games but only two of those defeats were by more than 10 points. In other words, at the current +11.5 being offered here, the Grizzlies would be 11-2 ATS last 13 games! Now look at the Bucks road performances too and, overall, this team has not exactly been setting the world on fire since coach Doc Rivers took over. Note that Milwaukee is only 4-7 SU last 11 road games and 2 of those wins were against a bad Detroit team and NO the Bucks did not win either game by double digits! In fact, Milwaukee's two road wins in this stretch, other than the two over the Pistons, were by 4 against a bad San Antonio team and by 12 at Dallas. So the only truly ultra impressive Bucks road win since the calendar flipped the page to 2024 is just barely above the number posted on this game. I like our chances here when you consider that the win over the Mavericks was the only truly impressive road game in 11 tries for Milwaukee in 2024. Give me the big points here with a scrappy home underdog. 10* MEMPHIS (+)

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - Sixers out for revenge here from a 4-point loss at Miami earlier this season. Also, the last time these teams met in Philly, the Heat crushed them by nearly 30 points! The Sixers have a great shot at avenging both these defeats right here right now. The Heat are hurting with a couple of injuries plus Jimmy Butler is out on personal leave. To make this situation even more perfect, the short-handed Heat played last night at Milwaukee. Not only that, they smashed the Bucks! They did it by shooting a ridiculous high-percentage from 3-point land in that one. On a B2B situation and also playing with a shorter bench than usual because of missing 3 players for this one, the Heat will struggle with shooting here and likely also fade as the game goes on. Conversely, the Sixers - though without Embiid and Harris - at least are well-rested here. Also, they will have Kyle Lowry on the floor for this one and the veteran is making his home-coming in Philly and played his college ball at Villanova. Don't be surprised if he plays well in what will be an emotional homecoming game for the veteran. The Sixers have been on a home losing streak but they are getting adjusted now with Payne and Hield already becoming solid contributors and Council has been playing well as a role player. Oubre coming off another solid game and Maxey is an All-Star and this Sixers team now won B2B games including beating a tough Cavaliers team at Cleveland. Now it is time to get the home winning going again and they catch the Heat at the perfect time to get a big home win before the All-Star break. Note that Miami is off a win but had lost 9 of 13 games heading into that one. Yes, the 76ers had struggled recently without Embiid but they are starting to figure things out and have the situational edges in this one plus home court. This line is in the 3.5 range as of early game day morning and this is a bargain number! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Tuesday Oklahoma City Thunder (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:30 ET - Oklahoma City is laying about 3 points in this one as of 13 hours before tipoff. Overall, as you can tell by the records too, the Thunder are the stronger team. However, the Magic do have the home court edge here. However, what I really like about this play is the fact Orlando has another game on deck against a conference foe, the Knicks tomorrow. Conversely, for the Thunder it is their final game before the break. OKC wants to go into the break with another win! In fact, lets talk about the "another win" theory as it relates to both teams here. The Magic enter this game on a 2-game winning streak but, other than the surprising 9-game winning streak Orlando had earlier this season, they have only had one other 3-game winning streak this season! When the Magic enter a game on exactly a 2-game winning streak they have failed to stretch it 3 games 5 of the 7 times this season! Make that 6 of 8 after this one! The Thunder enter this one off a single win and there has been only one time this entire season they have had just a single standalone win and that was way back in October. In other words, the odds based on season-long trending here certainly favor a Thunder win! Orlando has lost 3 of last 5 games at home against team with a winning record. they are not unbeatable here against quality opposition by any stretch of the imagination. Also, Orlando is just 10-10 SU in non-conference action while the Thunder are 14-4 SU in non-conf action! The better team in the better situation and on the road so the number of points is manageable. Great spot here to take advantage. Lay it! OKLAHOMA CITY (-)

NBA Saturday Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - This is a bargain price in the -4 range on Philly as of 10 hours before tipoff. Yes the 76ers are struggling but they got Payne and Hield both into action last night and now this is their 2nd game with both on the floor. Also, Maxey should be back for this one but, even if he is not, look at the value in this match-up! Washington has the WORST home record in the NBA as they are just 3-22 SU at home this season. This is a value spot to grab a talented Sixers team that, though without Embiid and dealing with some injury issues, is still a far superior team to this Wizards team. Also, the Sixers have won 4 straight over the Wizards. All 4 wins were by at least 5 points and the average margin of victory was 21 points! More of the same on the way here in a road rout! Make no mistake the Sixers have struggled but the Wizards are having a very rough season and each of their last 29 losses have been by at least 4 points which is the line currently available in the marketplace as of 10 hours before tipoff. PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers lost the last meeting a week ago and that is when Kuminga fell on Embiid's knee and the latter is now out for 6 to 8 weeks recovering from surgery. Embiid was already hobbled in that game but that finished him off. That is part of the line value here. This line is all the way up to a 4.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff and it is just too much. Embiid had a horrible game when these teams met last week and the Sixers were also without All-Star Maxey in that game. So we are truly getting some line value here by going against an over-rated Warriors team that just does not travel well. They were horrible on the road last season but then shockingly started this season 5-1 on the road. Sure enough, their normal pattern has resumed and they have gone just 4-11 in their road games since then. Here they face a Sixers team that is off B2B home losses after starting the season 17-6 in home games! Philly is without Embiid but the Warriors also have some injury concerns entering this game as well. Also, Golden State off a win at Brooklyn but the Warriors have not won B2B road games since that 5-1 road run to start the season 3 months ago! As for the Sixers, they have only lost 3 consecutive home games one time this season and that also was all the way back in November as well. The point is we have quite a few strong trends in our favor here plus I also like the situational value here! I expect a huge effort from Maxey and the home team in this one in front of a raucous Philly crowd out for revenge in this one. PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Tuesday Minnesota Timberwolves (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8 ET - The Wolves are the much stronger team and this is a reasonable spread to lay. Consider that the Bulls are 8-8 L16 games which does not sound that bad but the only winning team they beat is the Houston Rockets. The other 7 wins were against bad teams like Charlotte (3) and Portland, Memphis, Toronto and San Antonio. As for the Timberwolves, like Chicago, they also have a recent win over Houston and actually beat them twice during their current 11-6 run. The difference between Minny's wins and the Bulls wins however is the fact that Minnesota also has beaten Dallas, OKC, Brooklyn, the Clippers and Orlando during this solid run. Until Chicago truly proves they can step up against top tier competition, that is the big difference between these teams. Also, the T-Wolves are the much healthier team entering this match-up. This line is currently a 5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff. Lay it! MINNESOTA (-)

NBA Sunday Charlotte Hornets (+) vs Indiana Pacers @ 6 ET - The Pacers have a number of banged up players for this one. Yes, they won by 31 when these teams met in Indiana but they outscored the Hornets by 30 from three point land in that one! Ridiculously hot shooting for the Pacers was the difference in that game. I know it may seem tough to play on a team that has lost 6 in a row and is having a tough season but I am happy to challenge the Pacers to win this game by double digits over the Hornets! Note that Charlotte is the much healthier team and they are at home and the Pacers are on a 4-8 SU run. In those dozen games, Indiana had only 1 win by more than 6 points! This is a tricky scheduling spot for Indiana too because it is a 1-game road trip before B2B home games. Could the Pacers "mail it in" here against a Charlotte team they blasted in the first meeting? I absolutely believe that will be the case and the Hornets will be the hungrier team here at home and the Pacers health issues keep this one from turning into a complete rout. This one decided by single digits. CHARLOTTE (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 6:10 ET - Yes, the 76ers are without Embiid right now but Maxey is back and lighting things up on the statsheet. Also, this as much a play against Brooklyn as it is a play on Philly. Note that the Nets have lost 75% of their games since mid-December as they are on a 6-18 SU run. Not only that, Brooklyn had 2 of the 6 wins against a bad Detroit team and also a pair of recent wins against currently slumping Houston and Utah teams. So this line is basically saying that because Embiid is out, the 76ers are about the same level of team as the Nets. I completely disagree with current market assessment that on a neutral court these teams are about equal. Yes, even without Embiid, the Sixers are stronger than Brooklyn. Also, the Nets have lost 9 of last 11 road games and one of the only two wins was against the worst team, Pistons, in the entire league! Now the Sixers are back at home where they have won 11 of 14 games and this is a very reasonable number on Philly which has come down from about a half-dozen when it first came out. As of 10 hours before tipoff, this line is in the -4 range. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - I took the over last night in the Sixers game because even if Embiid missed that would mean more of a "small ball" type of game and I liked the Blazers long-term scoring trends at home as I noted in the write-up. I certainly was not shocked that Embiid did not play because he and the Sixers caught flak, including getting the attention the league office, by him not playing the prior game at Denver. From a Philly perspective it was essentially a "see, he really is hurt" statement by having him miss at Portland. I really expect both he and Maxey will return tonight. Even if they do not (though I certainly expect at least one will), note that the Sixers are in a situation that has not lost since November of 2021! Indeed that was the last time the Sixers have had a losing streak of more than 3 games. Since that point in time, Philly is 6-0 SU when they enter a game on a 3-game losing streak! In this match-up they are a dog and I did consider playing the money line here but we'll grab the available points which is currently 3.5 as of early gameday morning. The Warriors are not a strong team. Golden State is dead last in the Pacific and they continue to give up too many points. The Warriors enter this game having lost 10 of 14 games. So in this game GS is what I would term a "false favorite" as they are laying points against a solid Sixers team that will play desperate here no matter who is on the floor. We will grab the points just in case but I do look for that SU multi-year run of the Sixers when on a 3-game losing streak to reach a PERFECT 7-0 last 7 as they come out strong in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 5:40 ET - The Nuggets are at home and this line has gone from as low as 3.5 to as high as 5.5 points. This is a revenge game for Denver as they lost at Philly earlier this month. However, Embiid is so focused when he is healthy and playing this team and he is ready for this one just like he was in Philly less than two weeks ago. It is the big battle between Jokic and Embiid. In past visits here for the Sixers, Embiid either missed the game or played but was not healthy. The situation this season is different and that will be reflected on the scoreboard as well. The Nuggets are the defending champs and a great team but only 1 of their last 5 games has resulted in a Denver win by more than 5 points. We have some value here with a talented underdog that sees this match-up as a huge game. The Sixers know the NBA title chase ran through Denver last season and that it ultimately could be the same story out west this season. The Sixers must prove they can win here. I do expect Maxey (ankle) to play and, keep in mind, the Nuggets have key players banged up too. That counteracts the impact should Maxey not play in this one. The points are just too valuable here in a game the Sixers can win outright if Embiid keeps playing like he has been. I look for another aggressive game from him here as he looks to again outduel a player, Jokic, that he greatly respects. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA 10* Top Play Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers are about 5 to 5.5 point favorites on the road here. Even though Indiana is at home, they will be without Haliburton and also the Pacers just got back from a long road trip. After a long road swing like that, the first game back is almost the toughest. Making it even tougher is when you face a revenge-minded Sixers team that is on a hot streak. I know Harris might be out for the Sixers tonight but they are otherwise looking strong and certainly the Haliburton absence for the Pacers is the big one. Indiana did spring that upset at Philly as noted above but the Pacers outscored the Sixers beyond the arc by 21 points (differential of 7 threes) as the 76ers had a rare tough shooting night from deep. Philly had taken the first meeting this season by double digits and I expect a repeat of that here. The Sixers enter this one on a 6-game winning streak and the average margin of victory has been 11 points per game. The Pacers have lost 5 of 6 games and are a very weak team defensively. In this revenge spot it will be Philly bringing the better defensive effort. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - This line is in the 6.5 range as of 9 hours before tipoff and I like the underdog value here. Yes, Utah does not have a good SU record on the road and the Pelicans are tough at home. However, this Jazz team has been playing very well for an extended stretch here and the 3 meetings between these teams so far this season have all been tight. Those 3 games have been decided by an average margin of 4.7 points. Utah enters this game off B2B losses but both were by 5 or less points! Prior to this, the Jazz had won 12 of 14 games! So this Jazz team is still hot and and they have been tough to beat by a big margin and here they have revenge for losing their most recent game at New Orleans and yet we have a half-dozen points to work with! I will take it! The Pelicans have not exactly been setting the world on fire as they are just 9-7 SU last 16 games and I feel we have solid value with the way the Jazz have been playing and yet entering this game off B2B losses. The Jazz have not lost 3 straight since early December. Upset alert here but we'll grab the points just in case. 10* UTAH (+)

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:10 ET - First off I know the Blazers are one of the weaker teams in the league but the Lakers are only mediocre in my eyes and that means we have excellent line value here given a few other keys with this one as well. Portland enters this game off B2B wins so that helps a little with confidence. The Lakers are off a bad loss in most recent game and they also could get caught looking ahead to a big game with the rival Clippers on deck. Don't be surprised if LeBron and Company make the mistake of looking right past these Blazers. Also, about LeBron, he is not 100% and could be rested some especially as this game goes on which would allow Portland backdoor cover potential, if that is even needed. Also Anthony Davis appears to have a more serious injury issue he is dealing with now so, even if he plays, he will not be 100% and he could be rested here as a maintenance day given his new injury designation. So, at the end of the day, this is just too many points to give the Blazers in a game like this. Their confidence has been increasing also with recent wins. They will hang around in this game and this one decided by single digits. We'll grab the 10.5 points on offer in this one as of 9 hours before tipoff. 10* PORTLAND (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - This line is in the 11 range as of 8 hours before tipoff. This is the 2nd of 4 meetings between these teams this season and the first game was in Charlotte and was a memorable one! The Hornets suffered their worst home loss in franchise history! 135 to 82 was the final score in that one. Now you have a motivated Hornets team at home and playing with some added confidence after winning their most recent game. Yes it was against the lowly Spurs but that was a much-needed win for Charlotte. Now they host a Sixers team off a big win at Orlando last night. Though Embiid will likely play some, with this being the 2nd game of a B2B and now facing a lesser foe, Philly may choose to rest him some as the game goes on. The Hornets will prove to be the more motivated team here and that will help them keep this game to single digits. The hosts remember all too well how the prior meeting played out this season. Embarrassing home court loss, worst of franchise history, means payback here. Hornets keep this one to single digits. 10* CHARLOTTE (+)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - This line is around a -5 as of about 10 hours before tipoff. The Sixers recently beat the Magic at Orlando by 20 points so this is a revenge spot for the Magic. However, Orlando will again be without Wagner and he scored 24 of the 92 points the Magic had in the prior game with Philly. Yes, this is the front end of a B2B for the Sixers but tomorrow it is lowly Charlotte that they will be facing. In other words, I am sure this game has the full attention of Philadelphia and the absence of Wagner will be significant here for the Magic. They enter this game having lost 4 of 5 and the fact they are off a buzzer-beater loss versus a divisional foe will not help them in the confidence department here. The high-flying Sixers can take advantage. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:40 ET - The Mavericks are in the +4 or +3.5 range in this one and I know many will be looking at the Lakers here in a double revenge spot but I look for the Mavs to complete the trifecta and make the series a 3-0 sweep for the regular season. The key here is the line value with the Mavericks getting solid points as a road dog to a team that has been struggling for quite some time now. The Lakers have lost 12 of 18 games. Also, in those 18 games, ONLY 3 have been victories by more than a 3 point margin. Yes, I am aware Doncic is a game time decision here but Hardaway Jr just had 41 with the extra minutes he is getting because Doncic is out. Couple that with the fact Irving is on fire, the Mavs have won 2 of 3 now even with Doncic out. Long-term this Dallas team is on an 8 of 13 run and one of those 5 losses was by just 5 points. They are the top team in the Southwest Division and the Lakers continue to be over-rated by the betting masses. Los Angeles is not a great team. Let's grab the underdog value here. 10* DALLAS (+)

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:30 ET - This line has dropped a little from as high as a 4.5 overnight to now being down to as low as a 2.5 as of about 8.5 hours before tipoff. There are so many injury question marks entering this one but I feel the biggest key is that the only significant one for the Sixers is Embiid and yet he just came back from some time off. So, even though this is a B2B spot, Embiid is in good shape and even his coach is expecting him to play again tonight. Keep in mind, the 76ers win was an early game yesterday too at mid-day so that helps in the rest department plus it was a blowout win that was not nearly as close as the final score would lead you to believe. The Sixers were therefore able to rest guys and no one played more than 31 minutes. As for the Nuggets, they have a number of key players on their injury report including Jokic. Now certainly I do expect Jokic to play tonight but with other players likely missing and a number of guys (including Jokic) not 100% if they even do play, the Sixers are the play here at home. Philly's Embiid also would have some extra motivation here because Jokic got his ring with Denver last season and, of course, Embiid and Jokic are two of the best big men in the league! Extra motivation for a 76ers club that still wants to prove it can beat the best and rise the elite level. Lay the short number here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) 

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Houston Rockets @ 1:10 ET - The Sixers should have Embiid back for this one but, either way, they are off a blowout win over the Kings without him. Philly is now 14-6 at home this season and Houston is only 4-13 on the road this season. This looks like a blowout that favors the host in a big way. The Rockets just lost by 32 at Boston and that was their 3rd loss in 4 games. Philly already won the first meeting by 4 points and that was at Houston and the Sixers did not have Embiid in that one. Again, he could be back for this one and Philly is at home and he did practice fully each of the last two days. Lay the points here for another blowout as the home/road variance is a big edge for the hosts in this one. Laying 7.5 points here (as of 3 hours before tipoff) is a value line in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:40 ET - Great set up here. The Spurs are off B2B wins and it has been over a year since they have won 3 straight! Indeed, you have to go back to December 2022 for the last time the Spurs won 3 games in a row! Adding to the value here is the fact that Wembanyama will be rested for San Antonio plus Chicago is off a loss. The Bulls, in other words, will be hungry here as they had won 3 straight before that loss and the defeat ruined their ring of honor night which also was ruined by the boos when long-time owner Jerry Krause, whose widow was in attendance, had his name announced. Unsurprisingly, the Bulls went on to get destroyed in the 2nd half after that. Also, this was even despite having a double digit edge at the half. So the Bulls will be ready here and the fact this game is on the road is even better for them after that debacle at home. It also keeps this line manageable. Considering that Wembanyama will not play because SA is in a B2B and considering this line is just 5.5 as of about 8 hours before tipoff, this is a great value! 10* CHICAGO (-)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - The Hawks are just 6-14 SU last 20 games. Trae Young is expected to play in this one but it is evident from his recent shooting numbers from distance that the right shoulder is bothering him. The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid but this is a "rally the troops" type of game off B2B losses and having proven many times before that they can be okay without Embiid when they have to. If the Sixers win this game straight-up then of course it is an ATS win as they are an underdog of 1.5 to 2 points here as of about 10 hours before tipoff for this one! Philly, including post-season, is a PERFECT 5-0 the last 5 times they entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. That includes a PERFECT 3-0 this season. I look for this situation to make it a perfect 4-0 here on the season and perfect 6-0 long-term. Before these B2B losses Philly was 23-10 this season. The Hawks started the season 8-7 but have gone 6-14 since. This line, even though Atlanta is at home, is still over-adjusted because of Embiid being out. That means value here with the road dog. Grab the points but we should not need them. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) 

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:40 ET - The Mavericks are laying about 8.5 points here as of 10 hours before game time. This is a great value considering the Mavs are rolling and now the Grizzlies just lost Morant for the rest of the season. This is the final match-up between these divisional foes these season. Shockingly, the road team has taken all 3 so far but this one is an entirely different situation with the Mavericks on a power surge and also able to take advantage of a short-handed Memphis team. Dallas has won 3 straight games and Memphis is off B2B wins but is still 10 games below .500 on the season! They really have struggled when Morant has not been available and now that is the case again here and the Grizzlies are 6-3 with Morant this season and went 7-20 without him! Mavs roll huge at home. 10* DALLAS (-)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:10 ET - The Celtics are dealing with a number of injury concerns entering this one. Boston just hammered the Pacers at Indiana Saturday but look at a key stat from that game and that tells you all you need to know here. The Celtics made 16 of 41 threes while the Pacers made just 8 of 42 threes. bey is very unusual for this high-scoring Indiana team and yet the Celtics won that game by only 17 points. That means if you back out the 24 point edge from beyond the arc, the Pacers win the game OUTRIGHT by 7 points! Considering this plus immediate revenge plus a 2nd chance at home against Boston plus all the Celtics injuries, the home team underdog looks like a great option here. The Pacers will be better on the boards in this one too. It was an all-around embarrassing effort so this is a great opportunity for immediate revenge and they will make the most of it! Grab the points - currently 3.5 as of early game day morning. 10* INDIANA (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers have some injury question marks but those are minor and don't be surprised if most, if not all, of those guys play in this one. Also, the Sixers are not just off a home loss, it was the worst loss of the season and it came right here in Philly. The 76ers next game is on the road so don't be surprised if they go all out here in this chance to get right back on track. The Sixers bounce back after almost every loss and the Jazz just got hammered at Boston. Yes, Utah wants to bounce back but they are still on the road. and a lot of their recent wins were over poor teams with bad records. Tonight they face an angry beast on the road and this one gets ugly. This is the type of situation where the Sixers will keep the pedal to the metal all game long! This line has dropped to the 11 range as of about 6.5 hours before tipoff. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers are stronger at home than on the road and their 13 point win in most recent game does not even do it justice. Philly led by as many as 31 points in that game but then took their foot off the gas. Also, they were able to rest guys in that one and no one played more than 31 minutes. They will be rested and ready for this one and this line is currently in the -6 range but that suggests that the Sixers are only 3 points better than the Knicks on a neutral floor and I disagree with that. The Knicks are improving but they are not that close to the Sixers level. Also, New York is 9-11 on the road while Philly is 13-4 at home. Those are SU records of course but 9 of the Knicks last 11 losses have been by at least 9 points. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:30 ET - Yes, this line is a big one at 9.5 overnight but the Bucks absolutely should win this one by double digits. Milwaukee is in the 2nd game of a B2B but will still play very well here as they are off B2B losses so they will be fired up for this game against a lesser opponent. The Bucks have not lost 3 straight games all season. As for the Spurs, they are having a very rough season and many of their recent losses, even at home, have come by a big margin. San Antonio has lost 26 of 28 games and each of their last 3 home losses have come by at least a dozen points. The average margin of those 3 home losses was 27 points and another ugly one awaits here as Bucks are fired up to get back on track. 10* MILWAUKEE (-)

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - This line is in the 10.5 range as of 8 hours before tipoff and is the final meeting between these teams this season and the Bulls have taken the first two games. This is a double revenge spot for a Philly team that will have Embiid back on the floor for this one as well. Chicago is 15-19 on the season and Philly is 22-10 and there is also strong home/road dichotomy factors here as the Sixers are 12-4 at home and the Bulls are 4-10 on the road. Of course these are all SU records but I see Philadelphia winning this game huge with Embiid back on the floor and the fact this is double revenge including a home loss two weeks ago as well. The Sixers just lost at Chicago on the 30th as well so they enter this game off a loss. Philly is 3-0 L3 times coming off a loss. Blowout alert! 10* PHILADLELPHIA (-)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ LA Clippers @ 10:40 ET - A lot of injury issues here on both teams. I am aware of the situation and I know Butler will miss this game for Miami. However, this is too much underdog line value (7.5 as of 9 and 1/2 hours before tipoff) for Miami. The Heat are coming off a loss and a perfect 5-0 SU the last 5 times they were off a loss. Of course a SU win for Miami is a guaranteed ATS win in this one as they are a sizable underdog in this one. We'll grab the points here but we may not even need them. Note that the Clippers are off B2B wins but Kawhi Leonard will not be 100% here even though he is expected to play. LA had lost B2B games before those two wins and the Heat have won 3 straight meetings. Also, the Clippers do not have a win by more than 7 points in any of the past 6 meetings. I am grabbing the points with a hungry Heat team coming off a loss. 10* MIAMI (+)

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (-) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:10 ET - The Spurs might be without Wembanyama as he has a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable. I know the Jazz have not been good this season but were it not for the Pistons losing 26 games in a row I feel we would all be hearing much more about just how horrific this Spurs run has been. San Antonio started this season 3-2 but they have since gone 1-22 in an awful run of futility only overshadowed by the Pistons nightmare run. Also, 23 of San Antonio's 24 losses this season have been by at least 3 points so laying the number here (currently 3 as of about 11 hours before tipoff) is no problem either. The Jazz have won 5 of last 7 games so they have won more games the past two weeks than the Spurs have won all season long! Only 1 of Utah's last 11 wins have been by less than a 3 point margin. So excellent value here because of the Jazz being on the road for this one and we'll fade San Antonio again here. 10* UTAH (-)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:10 ET - Embiid is out for the Sixers but now they are catching 3 points as of about 9 hours before tip off. Keep in mind, Butler might miss this game for the Heat. Either way, I like the value here of a deep Sixers team catching points because of the absence of Embiid. This is a rare chance to catch Philly as an underdog and, keep in mind, Miami is 0-3 SU the last 3 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of at least 2 games. Including post-season games, the Heat are just 19-19 SU last 38 games. Philly is 29-12 SU last 41 games. The Sixers are 8-1 SU last 9 games overall entering this one and offer exceptional line value here. I know they are without Embiid but the Sixers are so loaded with other talent and depth that they will get the Christmas Day upset here. We'll grab the points just in case but I do not expect to need them. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:40 ET - The Mavericks are off an ugly 122-96 loss at Houston. They were without so many guys but I expect some back here for this one and Doncic is on track to play! That will be a big boost to the Mavs and they will take advantage of facing a Spurs team that is having a disastrous season. San Antonio started the season 3-2 but has since gone 1-21. This is unreal and the Spurs and 7 of the last 8 losses have been by 8 or more points. The current line on this one is in the 7.5 range and SA likely to get hammered again as Dallas is angry off an embarrassing loss. The Mavericks had won 5 of 6 before  tough recent slide but those 5 wins by an average margin of 14.6 points! They can roll this SA team that is an absolute disaster right now. The Mavs already won by 7 against the Spurs earlier this season and that game was at San Antonio and the Spurs were a different team then. They are really lacking in confidence and execution compared to the team we saw early this season. 10* DALLAS (-)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:10 ET - Current line on this is an 8.5 as of 7 hours before tipoff! There is only one team in the entire NBA that does not have a SU divisional win yet this season and it is the Raptors! Toronto is 0-7 SU in divisional action this season and their road losses in divisional games have come by an average margin of 14 points per defeat. The Sixers have won 7 of 8 and each of their last 6 wins have come by a double digit margin! In fact, the average margin has been 29 points! Philly should roll huge again here as this is their last home game until after New Year's so they will make the most of it. Toronto drops to 0-8 SU in divisional games this season and you can see why I am expecting the win to be by a double digit margin! 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs LA Lakers @ 9:10 ET - This line is up around an 8 but it is with good reason. James is out for the Lakers and Davis is questionable for LA. Both these teams are off losses yesterday but Minnesota is the much healthier team plus overall the stronger team plus they have the home court edge in this one. Also, the Timberwolves are a PERFECT 5-0 SU this season when off a loss. Additionally, when off a loss in which they allowed 127 points or less, the Wolves are not only 4-0 SU but every single win was by at least a 16 point margin and that means they are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season in this situation. Look for this one to make it 5-0 ATS on the season as this will be a home blowout against a short-handed Lakers team. 10* MINNESOTA (-)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) vs LA Clippers @ 8:40 ET - The Mavs are getting about 2.5 points here and of course it looks easy to lay the 2 or 2.5 with the Clippers here as they have won 8 straight games! Of course we all know what usually happens when something looks too easy, right? Indeed! So the point is this is the perfect time to go contrarian and back the Mavericks as a home dog in this one. First off, note that 6 of the 8 wins in the Clips win streak were home games! Also, one of the only two road wins was against a Jazz team that now stands just 10-17 on the season. The Clippers are still just 5-7 on the road this season and now they face their toughest road test since a 120-114 loss at Golden State. Also, 2 of the other road wins LA has this season were against a Western Conference league-worst Spurs team! So, the point is the Clippers are facing a much bigger challenge here but we get line value because of the current LA hot streak! Let's take advantage as the Mavericks are off a loss and they have gone 7-2 this season when coming off a loss! 10* DALLAS (+) 

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Phoenix Suns @ 10:10 ET - Big revenge game for the Suns is on deck against the Kings. That said, I like the value here of the big home dog Blazers who are playing this game with revenge and have been playing better of late but are off a tight home loss in which they covered ATS versus the Warriors. The Trail Blazers are still fighting hard for a win to snap their losing streak and they are on the cusp and should battle all the way through again here in this one. The points are a huge value in this one given the revenge situation for the home dog and the lookahead situation for the road favorite in this one! 10* PORTLAND (+)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - This line in the 11 range as of about 9 hours before tipoff. I know this is a big number and normally I do not like to lay such big numbers but this 76ers team, including their bench play, is absolutely on a tear right now. The Sixers have been getting great play from their bench and this has allowed them to sustain blowout margins in recent games and they are at home here and the Bulls have struggled overall this season. Chicago is a little better than their 10-17 record in my opinion but they are dealing with injury issues and the Bulls also are on the road and walking into a buzzsaw here. The 76ers have won 6 straight games and the average margin has been 27 points! Yes they are dominating teams! Each of last 4 wins by at least a margin of 18 points! The Sixers should roll big again here as on deck is a Western Conference foe and that game is not until Wednesday. So Philly is fully focused here. Also, though they won most recent game with Bulls, they lost the game immediately before that in a "home and home" B2B spot last season and that was in Philly. Chicago beat the Sixers in double OT in that one and the Sixers will get their home court revenge here the way I see it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:10 ET - I know the Trail Blazers have a bad record but this is a great spot for them. They are at home off a home loss and they catch Golden State traveling off a hard-fought home win over the Nets last night. Yes, Portland has an ugly record and is on a losing streak but they are catching 5.5 points here and they are hosting a Warriors team that has lost 7 straight road games. I know the Blazers are off B2B ugly losses but this followed an 8-game stretch in which only 1 game was a loss by more than 6 points! They will be in this one all the way and, considering the Warriors 0-7 SU run in road games, an outright win is not of the question either! This line is round a 5.5 as of 7 hours before tip-off so we'll grab the generous points in this one! 10* PORTLAND (+)

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This line currently in the 9.5 to 9 range as of mid-day Thursday. Boston is the only team that has an undefeated home record this season but this sure looks like too many points! Cleveland is 2-0 the last 2 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of at least two games. The Cavaliers are 12-8 SU last 20 games but, only 3 of their last 20 games have been losses by a double digit margin! Boston is 8-3 SU last 11 games but only 3 of the 11 games were Celtics wins by a double digit margin. The Cavs did lost this same match-up when these teams met Tuesday but Boston outscored them by 20 points at the free throw point line. In other words, the Cavaliers actually won the game by 13 points if not including free throws and I feel we have excellent line value here in this revenge spot for the Cavs. Grab the points in this one. 10* CLEVELAND (+)

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - These teams just met in Washington and the Sixers only won by 5 points and that was with Joel Embiid scoring 50 in that contest. I realize that the Wizards shot very well in that game, including from 3-point land. But now the Sixers are heavier favorites here - 11.5 to 12 points as of early gameday morning - and this is with Embiid questionable. Embiid did practice fully Sunday but why is he still on the report then? The fact is there is a chance that, facing a 3-18 team, the Sixers might try to give him rest here. Even if they do not rest him fully, there is a chance they will limit his minutes. Either way, the Sixers are likely in for at least a dogfight in which the Wizards keep this one to a single digit margin again. Washington has scorers and has some confidence given the way the last game played out. The Wizards off ugly loss at Brooklyn but this followed a 7-game stretch in which Washington had only 2 losses by more than 5 points! As for the 76ers, they only have 2 wins by more than 11 points in their last 15 games. I feel this is a nice value here as this is a game where Philly knows they have bigger fish to fry and I could see them being a bit flat or disinterested in this one. Even if they do manage to get up by 15 points or so the Wizards could easily backdoor the cover in the final stages too. Just too many points. 10* WASHINGTON (+)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET in Las Vegas, NV - There is some extra value baked into this line because the Lakers just absolutely destroyed the Pelicans on the scoreboard. However, LA shot 55% overall plus made 17 of 35 threes. New Orleans had a dreadful shooting game and was outscored by 30 from 3-point land as the Lakers made 10 more threes in the game. Keep in mind, the Lakers entered that game against NO in Vegas having gone just 4-7 in road games this season. The Pacers entered their game, a win over the Bucks, having gone 4-3 on the road this season and 2 of the 3 losses were at Boston and Philly. Of course the Celtics and 76ers are two of the best teams in the league. The point is that Indiana is arguably a better road team than the Lakers yet they are catching sizable points here against an over-rated LA team that is now over-valued after the hot-shooting win over the Pelicans. The Pacers are a very cohesive group. I like the team chemistry this roster has and I feel they will pull together to win this thing. Even if they fall short I look for it to be by one possession. This game could go right down to the wire but I am expecting the outright upset. We'll grab the 4.5 points. 10* INDIANA (+)

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:10 ET - This line in the 7 or 7.5 range and this is a bargain in my opinion. Looks like Trae Young could miss due to illness or at least would not be 100% here. That is bad news for a Hawks team that already lost to the Sixers by double digits earlier this season and that game was in Atlanta! Also, Philadelphia won their most recent home game by 44 points over the Lakers and the 76ers are getting healthy again with Oubre having come back as well. The Sixers are off a road game at Washington and have another game versus the Wizards at home up next. That said, the Hawks are certainly getting the full focus and attention of the Sixers right now. When Philly is focused they can blow teams out. They know they let that game at DC be much closer against the Wiz then it should have been and they will respond huge here with a strong home game. The Sixers have 7 home wins this season and all were by double digit margin except the Celtics. The Hawks are definitely not at the level of the C's. In other words, another blowout home win is imminent here! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) 

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Los Angeles Lakers in Las Vegas, NV @ 9 ET - The Lakers are such a popular team they tend to get some extra attention in the betting markets and that can put lines out of whack a bit. Lets not forget that this is a neutral site game and they are 4-7 SU away from home this season. Davis should play here but is managing some injuries. James is questionable but I am sure he will play but the point is that neither are likely to be 100% here. Couple that with the fact that the Pelicans have won 8 of 12 games plus they are the healthier team entering this match-up and they have revenge from losing 3 of 4 with LeBron and the Lakers last season. This line is now up to a 2.5 and I like the value with the underdog in this one given all of the above. 10* NEW ORLEANS (+)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - Normally I do not like to lay 9.5 or 10+ points in NBA games but this Sixers team is finally going to have everyone back and healthy on the floor for this one and they are off B2B losses and they are facing a 3-16 team. Not only that, this 3-16 Wizards team might be without Shamet and Poole. The latter is of particular importance but even Shamet gets some decent minutes. Poole is one of the top scorers. If either or both guys play they are unlikely to be 100% for this one. The Wizards have lost 11 of 12 games. The Sixers are strong when off B2B losses and are 9-2 SU the last 11 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. This team just not have long losing streaks and they are a much better and more cohesive club this season than last season. Of course a SU win is not the only key here as we also have a big spread to cover. The key with that is the Sixers have had 4 of last 5 wins come by 10+ points and the Wizards most recent loss was by 5 points. However, Washington has lost 6 straight road games and 5 of the 6 have been by more than a dozen points! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) 

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - The Bucks line is down to 4.5 in this one. After the line move especially there is value on Milwaukee in this one. The Bucks are 9-1 at home this season. 8 of their last 9 wins have been by 6 or more points. Of the Knicks last 6 losses, 5 have been by 5 or more points. Home court is a key factor here as the Bucks are 41-10 since the start of last season. The Knicks are solid on the road but certainly not at 80%+ like Milwaukee is at home. The Bucks have won 7 in a row over New York in their regular season meetings and I am grabbing the extra value here after the line move. The Bucks are without Connaughton and they are certainly better with him on the floor but are these teams really equal on a neutral floor (which is what this line is practically saying) when Bucks don't have him? I say no and I know the hosts want this tourney game and will have a strong crowd behind them. 10* MILWAUKEE (-)

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Sacramento -4.5 vs Denver Nuggets @ 10:10 ET - Tough spot for Nuggets off the big win over Phoenix last night. B2B spot for Denver and, this is the 3rd time they have entered a game on a 4-game winning streak. Both times thus far they lost the 5th game each time. This is a solid Kings team they face here and Sacramento is angry off a loss. The Kings just lost to the Clippers but Sacramento was off a big win over the Warriors. Remember that Golden State had won each of the first two meetings this season plus knocked Sacramento out of the playoffs last season. Not only that, the Kings had to rally and practically won that game in miracle fashion. So it was a definite flat spot. They bounce back here and take advantage of catching the defending champs in a tough scheduling spot. 10* SACRAMENTO -4.5

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This line is as high as 7 as of about 7 hours before tipoff. Embiid missed the morning shootaround so now speculation is rampant that he will miss tonight's game. Don't be surprised when Embiid plays tonight. I just do not see him missing this contest as the Sixers seek revenge here. They probably wanted to let him rest as much as possible this morning rather than force him for the shootaround. Either way this is a lot of points in a rivalry game and I like Philly here. Before the loss to the Pelicans, in which it was a surprise that Embiid did not play, the Sixers were 5-2 SU on the road this season and one of those losses was by just 1 point. We have great line value here with this line possibly now even going higher. You are going to see a huge effort here in this revenge spot from the Sixers no matter who is on the floor. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+)

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors -5 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 10:10 ET - Last night the Clippers caught the Kings off a dramatic huge-deficit come from behind victory the night before. LA took advantage and got the win at Sacramento but the situation was a good one for the Clips and a horrible one for the Kings plus LA hit 14 of 28 three-points in the game! They will not do that again tonight. Now it is the Clippers that are in a B2B situation and they are facing the very team (Warriors) that had blown a massive lead in a gut-wrenching loss at Sacramento! That said, Golden State is rested and ready and angry and this is a very reasonable line to lay here. I would not be surprised to see Leonard and Harden be less effective in the 2nd game of a B2B plus Powell got hurt last night and will not play here. Yes I am aware of the Chris Paul injury for the Warriors but the rest of the team in good shape entering this one and now Draymond Green is back from his suspension too. The Warriors are ready to go tonight and I am expecting them to have one of their best games of the season thus far in this one. They led by as many as 24 points in that loss at Sacramento and did lead by 17 at the half. GSW can not wait to get back on the floor. 10* GOLDEN STATE -5

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Pick'em @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - As of very early game day morning this line is showing some movement toward the Pelicans and the Sixers have gone from being a small favorite to right around a pick'em. The 76ers might even end up being the dog here but we are getting in on this now at the pick'em price. Yes, the 76ers have a revenge game on deck at Boston and are 1-1 this season when they have the Celtics on deck. However, the win was by 18 points while the loss was a game in which they were in the 2nd leg of a B2B with a Pacers team they had just beaten. This is a different situation. Philly going on the road off a blowout win over the Lakers and they know they do not want to make the same mistake they made against the Pacers. In other words, the fact this is a road game might even help the Sixers in the focus department and they know they can not overlook these Pelicans. New Orleans is at home and that is why this game is priced this way but they have lost B2B games and another reason for the pricing is that CJ McCollum could be back tonight. But if you are the Pelicans, wouldn't you rather wait and bring him back Friday against a bad Spurs team? Also, if he does play here, he would likely not be 100% plus he would be on a minutes restriction. The Sixers are 5-1 last 6 road games and a PERFECT 5-0 L5 road games when Embiid plays. He is playing tonight and the lone road game he missed was a loss he sat out of due to a b2b situation and playing with a sore hip. So this is a non-B2B and it is a road games streak I expect Philly to take to a PERFECT 6-0 RUN! 10* PHILADELPHIA pick'em 

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:40 ET - First off this line looks funny with Brooklyn only a 1.5 point favorite as of about 10 hours before tipoff. Why are the Nets such a small home favorite here? Glad you asked! The fact is Brooklyn is dealing with some injury concerns entering this one and that will impact both their effectiveness and team depth in this one. Also, they are off B2B wins here and not going to be as hungry as a Toronto team that is off a loss and has gone 5-0 the last 5 times this season in which they are off a defeat in which they scored 107 points or less. Look for this hungry Raptors to make it 6 in a row in this situation. Do not let the line fool you here! 10* TORONTO +1.5

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:10 ET - This line is around a 5.5 or 6 and that is saying the Sixers might only be about a bucket better than the Lakers on a neutral floor. I am just not buying that argument. The Lakers have won 3 straight road games but they lost 5 straight road games prior to that. Also, the Sixers have surprisingly lost each of their last 3 home games so you know they have this one circled on their calendar. This is particularly true because Philly has a couple road games on deck. Also, their most recent win was only by 4 points but this followed the first 9 of 10 Philly wins coming by a margin of at least 7 points and I feel certain this one will too! Lakers have some banged up players and I expect Davis and James to play but neither is likely to be 100% here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:40 ET - The Bulls are hungry for a win. They have revenge here against the Nets from a loss earlier this season too. Also, Chicago is catching Brooklyn in the 2nd night of a B2B and off a revenge win over the own. The Nets had revenge against Miami and they got it. Don't be surprised if, based on scheduling dynamics and situational advantage, the Bulls are the more aggressive and fresh team here. I know Caruso and LaVine are each listed as questionable for this one but I expect them to play. Either way, I like the underdog Bulls here in this one and will grab the points, currently around a 4 or 4.5 as of mid-day Sunday. 10* CHICAGO (+) 

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 8:10 ET - As of about 8 hours before tipoff this line is in the 7.5 range and the Pacers are hurting with some injuries including top scorer Haliburton. Even if he plays, he is dealing with right wrist pain. That will not help in the scoring department. That said, the Pacers have to score a ton to win games because this team just not play defense. There is a reason this line is coming down even though we are talking about a Detroit team (2-13) that has the worst record in the league. Pacers allowing 126.4 ppg and this is the worst mark in the league. If you look at Indiana's last 6 games, none were Pacers wins by more than 6 points and they have gone just 3-3 in those games. There is a reason some action is coming in on a team that has lost 12 straight games, 5 of the last 7 defeats have been by a single digit margin. Look for another very tight game here as the Pistons are very hungry for a win and will take advantage of shoddy defensive play of the Pacers. 10* DETROIT (+)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:10 ET - Current line is in the -4.5 range and I expect a solid home win. Philly had 4 guys score in double digits in last night's OT loss at home to Cleveland. Those 4 players were also the big 4 in terms of minutes played last night as they all topped 40 minutes! This is a really tough spot here for Philly as they are in a B2B while Minny has some rest and the Timberwolves have been playing so well this season. Also, the Sixers have now lost 3 of 5 and certainly are not as a strong of a team as they were early this season before Oubre got hurt. Yes they are still a top team but now short-handed already plus playing the 2nd night of a B2B and the Wolves are 6-0 at home this season and most have been blowout wins and the one that wasn't was still a 5-pt win in OT here. I look for the Timberwolves to take advantage of the situation and roll the Sixers here. 10* MINNESOTA (-)

NBA 10* Top Play Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - This line is in the 7.5 range as of early gameday morning. The Cavaliers are a solid team that has won 3 straight games so this line makes sense. However, Cleveland is going to again be without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell here. Also, the Cavaliers could be without Caris LeVert again. If he does play, LeVert (knee) will not be 100% most likely and, keep in mind, he is also one of the Cavs top scorers. This the Sixers only home game in about a 2-week stretch so they want to make it count! Philly has been so strong and they were encouraged by having Oubre back at practice yesterday. His return is likely still weeks away but the team chemistry in Philly right now is as high as it has been in years so they definitely were also encouraged by having him back at practice Monday! The Sixers are 10-2 last dozen games and 8 of last 9 wins by at least 8 points! In fact, the average margin of victory in Philly's wins this season is 13.4 ppg so I do not expect the spread to be an issue here. 4 of the Cavs last 5 losses by at least 8 points and the Sixers are so strong and confident so far this season and this is particularly true at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 3:10 ET - The Nets are just 3-4 last 7 games and a big key with that is 2 of their 3 wins came against teams that are now a combined 6-17 this season. Against tougher teams the Nets continue to lose and Brooklyn also hurting without leading scorer Cam Thomas. If you look at this Brooklyn roster you can see it is no wonder why they tend to struggle against top teams. Of course the Nets would like revenge for last season's playoff ouster at the hands of the Sixers but they don't have the roster to do it right now in my opinion. Also, keep in mind, Philly's only losses this season came against a strong Bucks team by 1 point in Milwaukee and they lost both ends of a B2B. But that B2B featured a front-end lookahead with a tough Celtics team the very next night. The point is, the way Philly is playing right now, even without Oubre a bit longer, they just do not lose to lower-tier teams. They will get the big win here in my opinion and we have a very manageable line to work with. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The current line on this one is around a 3.5 and the Heat are still without Tyler Herro. The game he got hurt in was a game that he only played 8 minutes in. So including that game, Miami has won 4 straight games without him. However, the key here is that 3 of those teams were really bad and are struggling overall this season. In fact, the combined record of all 4 teams is 14-29. Now the Heat face a red hot Nets team that already beat the Heat at Miami this season and that was when Herro was the leading scorer for Miami with 30 points and now he is not even playing tonight. I understand the Heat being favored here as they are at home and have won 6 straight. However, Brooklyn has won 6 of 9 and the only 3 losses were to Boston (twice) and Milwaukee. Of course the Celtics and Bucks are two of the best teams in the league. The Heat, without Herro, are not at that level. The road team gets it done here. 10* BROOKLYN + points

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - Embiid may not play here as he has a sore left hip. To put that on the injury report in a different way, Embiid may rest here because the Sixers have another huge game with the rival Celtics on deck for tomorrow night! In all seriousness that is a real factor here and it would not surprise me if this is the Sixers excuse to end up holding Embiid out of this one. Even if he does play I expect Philly to rest some guys if they do have a sizable lead late. But the fact is this Pacers team can hang around in this one and possibly even steal an upset win. The Sixers can not help but to think about the huge showdown with the Celtics on deck. Yes they finally beat them when these teams met last week but that does not change importance of "round two" of their season series. Also, though Philly won by 11 in the game versus Indiana Sunday, that was with Maxey scoring 50 points and with the team overall making 14 three pointers! I just do not see those types of numbers again and expect a tight battle here in this one. The Pacers have a strong shot at revenge here but we'll grab the points being offered for added insurance. The current line on this one as of early gameday morning is +5.5 points. 10* INDIANA + points

NBA Monday 10* Top Play New York Knicks + @ Boston Celtics @ 7:40 ET - This is a great set-up. The Celtics have a big revenge game with the 76ers on deck. Conversely, the Knicks have revenge on their minds right here, right now as they lost their season opener at home to Boston despite having an edge in field goal attempts of 20 more in that game! Not only that, the Knicks enter this game off B2B high-scoring performances including a season high in shooting efficiency in their most recent win. Yes, Boston is solid defensively and they are the better overall team in this match-up as they are one of the best teams in the league. However, the Knicks are a solid club and they have a big motivational edge here and could catch the Celtics thinking ahead to the rematch with Philly. I'll gladly grab the generous points here which is in the +9 range as of early game day morning. 10* NEW YORK KNICKS + points 

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:40 ET - This is a revenge game for the Warriors as they lost at Cleveland less than a week ago. They had a horrible shooting night from inside the arc in that game and I like the situation here too as the Cavaliers are 1-5 SU, other than the win over GS, ever since they won on opening night. In other words, they have struggled badly and now they face a revenge-minded Warriors team off a loss after a 6-1 SU stretch in which the only loss was the defeat to the Cavs. As you can see, value here with the home team at this very manageable number currently in the -4 range. 10* GOLDEN STATE (-)

Wednesday NBA 10* Top Philadelphia 76ers + vs Boston Celtics @ 7:10 ET - I know White is expected back for the Celtics tonight but he was away on paternity leave so how effective will he be here? Could he be distracted? Boston has a great team of course and they have owned the Sixers in recent seasons but there is something different about this Philly team this season and the chemistry they have as they have rallied around the entire Harden situation and are happy he is now with the Clippers. As a home dog, this is is a great spot to grab a team that has rattled off 5 straight wins and remember that Boston is still working some guys into their rotation early this season. As evidenced by the loss at Minnesota, this is still a process for the Celtics. The 76ers get revenge here for last spring's playoff ouster at the hands of their long-time rivals. This is a big game and it sure looks like the Sixers are finally ready to show up and knock off the C's. Grab the points with home dog here. Currently the dominant line is +2 but there is some +2.5 out there as of mid-morning gameday. 10* PHILADELPHIA +

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - This line is right around an 11 as of early gameday morning and I am not a huge fan of laying big points in the NBA but this 76ers team is rolling right now and has excellent team chemistry now that Harden is gone. Also, in that trade the Sixers picked up a few players and tonight Batum will make his debut while Covington already is back and contributed in the win over the Suns. Keep in mind Covington is a former Sixer that had some big seasons and he is happy to be back here. He and Batum will be role players that help this team with depth. Speaking of depth, we are only 5 games into the season but this is still a pretty amazing feat. The Sixers have 4 guys (Embiid, Maxey, Oubre, Harris) right now averaging at least 20 points per game! How amazing is that? Glad you asked! This is an NBA record. In NBA history there has never been a team with 4 guys still averaging 20+ points per game by the time they are 5 games into a new season. This is just not normal but Philly has a new free-flowing offense and everyone is contributing and they even got to rest Embiid for the entire 4th quarter against the Suns in that 12 point win. Speaking of big wins, the Sixers 4 wins have come by an average of 15.5 ppg. The 76ers have won 4 straight after a 1-point loss at Milwaukee to open the season. The Wizards 4 losses have come by an average of 14.5 ppg. I know the Sixers have the Celtics on deck but that game is not until Wednesday and Philly is enjoying a long homestand and that game is at home too. They will be ready to stay hot at home and dominate this Wizards team that just does not have the depth to keep up with Philly for 4 quarters. The Sixers pull away as this game goes on. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

Saturday NBA Utah Jazz +8.5 @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:10 ET - Minnesota off a huge win they were waiting all summer for as they just beat the Nuggets. Not only is Denver the defending NBA champs and not only were they off to a hot start again this season, the Nuggets knocked the Wolves out of the playoffs last season. So that was a huge revenge win for the T-wolves and now they face a letdown spot here. The Jazz will not be in a good mood either as they had won their last 2 home games and now just lost most recent game by only a bucket. I am not saying they get the outright win here but they are motivated and will be hungry tonight and they stay within this inflated team that could get caught a bit flat-footed off the big win over the Nuggets. UTAH +8.5

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 10:40 ET - The Magic off a tough loss to the Lakers last night but now play on the same floor tonight. Orlando had 95 shots from the field compared to just 79 for LA but they were done in by poor shooting. They will be better here tonight and all I can say about the Clippers getting Harden from the Sixers is two words: good luck! I think he will be more of a problem than a solution here in LA plus the Clips lost some bench minutes in the process with some of those guys now on the way to Philly in the trade. So tonight may not be the Clippers best effort. I also like the fact they are off a 40 point win while the Magic are off a tight loss. Look for Orlando to be very hungry team and this is one of those teams that is young but they tend to work hard at each end of the floor and I believe they will hang around in this one and eventually might even pull of the upset win late. After all, there is some extra hunger when you know you should have beat a team but you did not. That is the case here with the Magic after the tight loss to the Lakers. I am sure they will make up for that here. 10* ORLANDO (+) 

NBA Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 or -6 vs Detroit Pistons @ 8:10 ET - The Thunder just got completely embarrassed at home yesterday and that was their home opener. However, OKC had a really tough shooting night while the Nuggets were red hot from the field. Oklahoma City is sure to bounce back tonight. Remember that the Thunder are a young and up-and-coming team and are expected to do well this season. The Pistons are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league. I know Detroit is 2-1 but they beat some teams also projected to not do well this season. This is going to be the Pistons toughest test yet as they face an angry Thunder team ready to immediately respond at home. Denver shot 60% last night and 41% from three point land while OKC shot just 41% from the field and 19% from beyond the arc in an ugly game. It was a sell-out game at home against the defending champs and a home opener no-less and the Thunder got embarrassed. That is the kind of game a decent team will respond to. OKC is more than decent. They are talented and can make a move up the standings this season. They had won both games before the loss to the Champs. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 or -6 

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:40 ET - It is one thing to lose in OT but it is another thing to lose that game when you led by 17 points in the 4th quarter with under 5 minutes to go! Indeed, the loss for the Raptors last night at Chicago is one that falls into the gut-wrenching category and those are the toughest to bounce back from. Toronto was still up by 7 with under a minute and a half to go in regulation. Then, in OT, the Raptors were up by 4 with about 30 seconds to go! The Bulls then got a layup and later a 3-pointer with 2 seconds left and got the 1-point win. Look for Toronto to struggle to bounce back from this and they are facing a rested 76ers team that came up just 1 point short at Milwaukee in the first game. The Bucks were a tougher opponent for Philly than either of the opponents Toronto has faced so far this season. This further adds to the value here. Though I am not nuts about laying points in the NBA this is a manageable number given the situation and I expect the Sixers to continue to work hard under a new head coach and plus they are motivated by the Harden situation looking to prove they can do all the need to without him. 10* PHILADELPHIA -3.5

NBA Friday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings -2.5 vs  Golden State Warriors @ 10:10 ET - The Warriors were one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season. Granted this is not much of a road trip for them but facts are facts. Golden State has really struggled to win in other team's buildings. They did not shoot well at all versus Phoenix from 3-point land in the season opener and that was at home. Now they are in an enemy's building and it is an enemy that does not like them at all and this nearby rival is likely to get a solid home win here as the Warriors will again be without Draymond Green for this one. This impacts their defense and rebounding and the Kings off a big win in their season opener and rolling with confidence entering this one. 10* SACRAMENTO -2.5

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:30 ET - This line is as high as a 6.5 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. I feel we have excellent underdog line value here. All you hear about the Sixers these days is the Harden situation. You here very little about the fact this team has plenty of other talent plus has added some key personnel pieces that fit well into the other big key here that few are talking about. Nick Nurse is going to end up doing a great job in Philly. He will get more out of these players and these guys, sans Harden, are a hungry group that is a great mix of young talent and veteran leadership. I am not saying they are the best team in the east but they are one of the top ones and in this match-up with the Bucks they have the coaching edge plus we have about a half-dozen points to work with. Couple that with the hungry underdog mentality and the fact that Milwaukee could have some growing pains early this season in terms of Lillard and Giannis looking to figure out how to develop synergy on the floor together - it could be choppy early in Milwaukee. The Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset and when I see a game like this plus am getting a half-dozen points to work with, I am on it! 10* PHILADELPHIA +

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks -4 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:40 ET - Of course there is a ton of hype about the Spurs and their new big man Victor Wembanyama but he is a rookie and will have some growing pains. Additionally, Spurs coach Popovich has had a remarkable career and I have plenty of respect for him but he should have hung it up a few years ago. San Antonio will again struggle this season and not get out of the 20s in win total this season. Conversely, Dallas off  a disappointing campaign but had been flying quite high prior to this and I am expecting a big bounce back year for them. They look positively re-tooled and I like this Mavs team to be very hungry early this season after the disappointment of the way last season ended. That said, covering a small number on the road against a hated division rival set for another down campaign should not be a problem. We lay it here with plenty of confidence and I look for the the Mavericks to pull away as the game goes on. The Spurs may ride some early emotion but that will take them only so far here as reality sets in as the game goes on. 10* DALLAS -4

NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The line is as high as +1.5 on the Suns here but some books even have the Suns as a 1 point favorite in this one as of early gameday morning. Essentially this line is in the pick'em range. This sets up perfectly for me as a contrarian play and I love contrarian plays in the NBA. Last season Golden State was 33-8 at home while the Suns were 17-24 on the road. You think the odds makers are unaware of this home/road dichotomy? Of course not. That said, this line has been set this way with good reason and Phoenix is projected to be the stronger team this season and I am going to ride them right away here in Game 1 of the new season as they get the road win against this over-rated Warriors bunch. Look for the absence of Draymond Green to hurt Golden State as they sure could use his defense in a match-up like this. 10* PHOENIX (+)

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets -2 or -2.5 @ Miami @ 8:30 ET - The Nuggets are 3-0 SU the last 3 times they have entered a game off a loss by 6 or less points. Given that straight up (SU) trend as well as the fact the line here is only 2 or 2.5, I do not have any hesitation in laying the points in this bounce back spot for Denver. Note that they outrebounded the Heat in the Game 2 loss. They also led the game by 8 points entering the 4th quarter. The fact the Nuggets fell short as a result of getting outplayed in that 4th quarter on their home floor will only strengthen their resolve here. The Nuggets were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc in that game and it was the difference maker. The fact the Heat knocked down about 50 percent of threes and hit 17 of them while Denver hit 11 means that the final score would have been Nuggets by 15 if you take the threes out of the equation. Of course you can not do that and I had the Heat in Game 2 on the MONEY LINE as an outright +300 winner and expected them to respond big Sunday. However, I now expect Denver to make adjustments too and they respond here and get the road win. Note that Denver is 7-0 SU when they allow 100 or more points in their prior game. Nuggets D up here and the big road win by 3 or more. 10* DENVER -2 or -2.5

NBA Sunday Miami Heat Money Line +300 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently +8.5 is out there) but I am going with the +300 on the money line here. Note that Miami saw Martin, Strus and Robinson combine for 2 of 23 from the field Thursday. The Heat also had only 2 free throw attempts in the game. Miami also saw Jimmy Butler score just 13 points. All of these insane numbers and yet the Heat still won the game. Wait, you are telling me Denver won and not Miami? Well technically you are 100% correct but the fact is Miami won the game from the field despite those numbers above. Indeed the Nuggets scored 14 more points than the Heat from the free throw line. This means that Miami (104-93 losers in Game 1) actually won the game by 3 points from the field. When I look at this series I feel certain that the Nuggets can win at Miami and the Heat can win at Denver. The Heat will respond here and are very well coached (admittedly Denver is too) and I could see the Nuggets getting caught feeling a little too good about themselves after the way Game 1 went. In further support of this pick and in terms of having the guts to take a +300 money line, note that the Heat are 9-0 SU (STRAIGHT UP) the last 9 times they have entered a game off a loss by a margin of a dozen or less points. The points are a generous offer here for sure but we won't need them so I am going for a triple your money wager here. Take the Heat on the money line as this streak reaches 10 in a row! MIAMI +300

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +9 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - I really like both these teams. Guys who follow me closely know I rode both the Nuggets and Heat heavily in the conference finals. That said, I got the match-up I wanted and I feel we have a solid competitive balance here. Certainly the Nuggets are the stronger overall team and deserve this heavy line generally speaking but Miami is a very good team. Also, this is not a normal situation here either. Rest is a good thing but too much rest can lead to rust. That is an issue here for Denver. There already is a normal automatic layoff between the conference finals and the NBA finals. That said, the fact the Heat / Celtics series went 7 games did not necessarily hurt them entering this series. It could hurt them if this series goes deep but early on it actually is an advantage that Miami could be more game ready here considering the fact that the Nuggets have not played since Monday. No not the Monday of THIS week but the Monday of LAST week. So a weak and a half later Denver is taking the floor again finally for a real game. Nothing compares to real game action no matter how much you practice. So the point is Denver is likely rusty enough that the Heat can take advantage early on in this one. I still think Nuggets find a way to win this one but I do not think they win this by double digits. Grab the big points here. MIAMI +9

NBA Monday Miami Heat Money Line +250 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently some +7.5 is out there) but I am going with the +250 on the money line here. First off, Boston is trying to do something that has never been done in terms of coming all the way back from down 3-0 in an NBA series to win 4 straight and take the series. Secondly, the Heat are so well-coached and have a huge experience edge with Spoelstra over Mazzulla as I have mentioned in my prior write-ups. Thirdly and, for me, a huge key here is a look inside that Game 6 boxscore in the thriller that Boston won by just a single point on a late tap-in. Note that the Big 3 of Boston - Brown, Smart, Tatum - totaled 78 points and shot a respectable 24 of 53 from the field. Conversely, the Big 3 of Miami - Butler, Adebayo, Vincent - totaled only 50 on disastrous 15 of 55 shooting from the field. Look at those numbers again. Look at the final score again. I am telling you straight up that I will actually be SHOCKED, given all of the above, if the Heat do NOT pull off what the public would perceive as a SHOCKER and win this game OUTRIGHT! Seriously, I am not exaggerating here. Given the number above the Heat should have lost by at least 20 points in that last game and they did not as they were 0.1 seconds from an outright win. That says a lot. I am confident in Spoelstra and in Butler and the fact they will bounce back here after the horrible shooting in Game 6. Grab the points if you want but my play is on the outright money line winner. MIAMI +250

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I just can not see Gabe Vincent missing this game. The Heat know a win tonight is critical. Vincent was able to take Game 5 off because of the situation but now in Game 6, and considering the injury is not major, I feel strongly that he will be back. Even if he is not, I look for Jimmy Butler to have a much better game on his home floor. He and all of the Heat players should bounce back. They have been so strong this year when at home and off a loss. Miami is 17-4 the last 21 times they have entered a home game coming off a loss. This includes a perfect 8-0 the last 8 times! This is a SU record but, of course, any SU win tonight is also an ATS win for the Heat as they are catching 3 points here. So the system fits and we will not hesitate to back it. Also, Boston is 0-6 the last 6 times they have entered a road game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. So this is a double perfect spot as both these team trends are also perfect in this post-season. Indeed I am expecting the outright win here but I will grab the points just in case the Heat fall just short but I am looking for a major response here at home and the long-term numbers in this situation certainly support that. MIAMI +3

NBA Thursday Miami Heat +8.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I did have Boston in Game 4 and expected Celtic pride to rise up and avoid the sweep. However, as I mentioned in that write-up I sill expect Miami to end up winning this series. Even if that does not happen, I do expect them to stay inside this inflated number. The Heat are up 3-1 in this series. Now, because Boston finally got a win but is down 3-1 and returning home and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to blowout Miami in Game 5? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat have been fantastic in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 177th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. I know Boston won Game 4 by 15 in Miami but the Celtics outscored the Heat by 30 points from 3-point land as they were hot from downtown while Miami struggled to hit from deep. I did like the fact that the Heat resumed being the stronger rebounding team in Game 4 and I expect more of the same here. Miami has only had one losing streak (3 games) since early March as when they have entered a game off a standalone loss they have won the next game 8 of 9 times including all 3 times in this post-season. Even if they do not win outright here, look for them to get at least th cover and yes I am aware of the questionable status of guard Gabe Vincent but this team has battled through injuries all post-season. MIAMI +8.5

NBA Tuesday Boston Celtics +2 @ Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - Even though I have been on Miami throughout this series and do expect them to win the series eventually. I don't see that happening tonight. The Celtics actually had 98 field goal attempts compared to 81 for the Heat in Game 3 on Sunday. Boston was done in by poor shooting and the fact that Miami shot lights out. That said, the value is with the Celtics here in desperation mode. The Heat have the coaching edge big-time in this match-up but Boston has a very talented cast and they can will this team to victory if they want it bad enough. I think this Celtics team absolutely does want to win this one for pride and to get one more home in at least as this would send the series back to Boston for Game 5. Note that the Celtics made just 26% of threes Sunday while the Heat knocked down 54%. That was your game right there. Rebounds were 57 to 35 in favor of Boston plus a crazy 21 to 1 edge for the Celtics in terms of offensive rebounds. So some of the hustle stats were there for the C's Sunday and odds in terms of regression to the mean certainly would suggest that Miami regresses in Game 4 while the Celtics improve from the floor in Game 4. BOSTON +2

NBA Monday Denver Nuggets +3.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - All the pressure on the Lakers here. Nuggets would be okay if there was a game 5 in Denver. LA will not see a Game 5 unless they win tonight. Lakers have not handled the pressure well so far in this series and I like the fact that Nuggets won Game 3 despite Jokic scoring "only" 24 points. This says a lot about how strong this Denver team is and they also got outrebounded in that game. So when you combine all those factors with the fact we can get 3.5 points here with a Nuggets team that has won 5 straight games and 11 of 14 in this post-season, you have value on your side with this one. The Lakers have lost 3 straight of course and are just 7-7 last 14 games in this post-season. Also one of their round two wins came by just 3 points and one of their round one wins came in OT. We have a lot of value here in a game the Nuggets could win outright but also could cash for us even with a SU loss as this could be a tight finish. Keep in mind, the Lakers biggest lead in Game 3 here in LA was 2 points while the Nuggets led by as many as 14. The visitors just have too much for the hosts here. DENVER +3.5

NBA Sunday Miami Heat +3.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Heat are up 2-0 in this series. Now, because Boston is down 0-2 and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to go down to Miami and turn all this around in one game? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat are 5-0 at home in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 175th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. Considering all of the above factors I do like the Heat to go up 3-0 in this series but the money line is only in the +135 range and, in a case like this, considering I can get 3.5 points with the underdog, I am going to side with the points rather than the money line in case Miami falls just short. But look for the Heat to get the job done yet again as they win their 8th straight home dating back to a loss in way back in late March. MIAMI +3.5

NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +6 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Much is being made of the Lakers returning home and how they are now going to respond and that everything will be okay in La-La Land. I beg to differ! The most recent home game for the Lakers saw them allow 103 field goal attempts (they had just 75) in the 122-101 game that eliminated the Warriors from the post-season. Golden State lost that game for one key reason and that was simply horrible shooting overall including from 3-point land. The home game before that saw the Lakers go 20 of 20 from the line while the Warriors had just 9 free throw attempts. Even with that the Lakers won the game by just 3 points. That said, and with knowledge the free throw disparity between the Nuggets and Lakers will NOT be the same here (Lakers 62 to 26 edge in FT attempts in last 2 home games of series with GSW). Denver has looked very strong so far in this series and remember their 3 post-season defeats have come by 5 and 6 and 7 points and one of those was in OT. This team getting 6 points against a team they are clearly superior to especially when you consider the Nuggets have NO pressure here makes them a VERY dangerous dog in this spot. All the pressure is on the Lakers. The underdog has a great shot at the upset here but certainly the Nuggets should at least do enough for the cover the way I see this one unfolding! 10* DENVER +6

NBA Friday Miami Heat +9 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Boston might bounce back and win this game but I am still going to challenge them to win big after we rode Miami in game one to a solid outright upset win. The fact is the Celtics got past a mediocre Atlanta team and a dysfunctional soft weak 76ers team to get to this point. They are facing a real team now in Miami that is also so well coached. The fact is the Celtics are coached by 34 year-old Mazzulla and I think this is the series where his lack of high-level experience is finally going to be exploited. The Hawks did not have the talent to beat this Celtics team. The 76ers did not have the heart or the coaching ability (yes Doc Rivers deserved blame too) to get past Boston as the talent went to waste. This Heat team has talent and hunger and an X-factor in Jimmy Butler as he continues to be playoff Jimmy in this post-season. More of the same here. Give me the points against a Boston team that is 8-10 SU last 18 home games. This team can't even win a good percentage of home games come playoff time let alone cover a double digit spread. Grab the big points as the Heat have played 12 post-season games thus far and only 1 was a loss by a double digit margin. MIAMI +9

NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - This is just a typical contrarian play for me. The zig zag theory is in effect here because when the markets zig I prefer to zag. The point being that most will be backing the Lakers here after they fell just short in Game 1 and so most will be looking at the underdog as that is the traditional zig zag approach. However, what I see in this game is that Denver is going to be a very tough match-up for the Lakers and the Nuggets also will have proven to have learned their lesson from Game 1. What I mean by this is that they let the Lakers get back into the game late as Denver blew a massive and comfortable lead they had for much of the game. The Nuggets will not make the same mistake twice and I look for them to win this one big by double digits. DENVER -5.5

NBA Wednesday Miami Heat +8.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics were gift-wrapped this appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals. They faced a Hawks team that barely made the playoffs. Then they faced a 76ers team that has a guy by the name of Embiid that should return his MVP Trophy and the NBA should reissue it to Jokic. The 76ers Embiid and Harden - to lose those final two games and put the stat lines together they had - is absolutely inexcusable. You did not see heart, you did not see effort, you did not see the heart of a champion. Jimmy Butler has that heart and he is the leader of this team. Even battling through injuries they have made it this far because they are also well-coached unlike Doc Rivers running a 3-ring circus in Philly. The point is that this Boston team is not what they used to be, not the same team they were when Brad Stevens was patrolling the sidelines rather than sitting in the front office. They simply ran into a Philly team that has so much talent but was poorly coached and did not show heart and fortitude. Simply put, the Sixers are a joke. The reason that has so much to do with this play is because now Boston runs into a true foe that can battle them all over the floor. Yes they have injuries but these guys play hard and they are gamers and the energy is infectious all over the floor. So the Heat are going to battle hard. I am not saying they win this game or win this series but the Celtics are about to face something they have not yet faced in this post-season. A team that is talented AND well-coached AND scrappy AND hard-working. The Heat have it all and they will be in this game to the final minute the way I see it. Give me these huge points. MIAMI +8.5

NBA Tuesday Denver Nuggets -6 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Game 6 of the Lakers prior series they were hosting Golden State. Take a look at this: Warriors 103, Lakers 75. Now, of course we all know this was not the final score or else there would have been a Game 7 at Golden State and the Lakers would not even be here. But the point is the Lakers won Game 6 despite the Warriors having 28 more FG attempts. Yes LA got to the line a ton but the biggest problem was the Warriors shot horribly from the field. That is not happening here with this Lakers opponent. The Nuggets are rested and ready and are strong. Jamaal Murray is on the injury report as questionable with illness but we also saw that in the final game of the series with the Suns. The fact is that Denver has won 8 of 11 post-season games and 7 of the 8 wins have come by a margin of at least 9 points. The Nuggets are so strong at home and the Lakers 4 post-season losses have all come by double digits and this one will too. DENVER -6