Rotation #929: Tuesday OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - Big total here but the wind will likely be blowing out for this one. First toward center and then perhaps toward right-center as the game goes on. The Cubs have hit well at home and have a solid batting average there. Their bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack for team ERA while the struggling Astros have a bullpen ERA that ranks among the worst in the majors! Considering this match-up also features two struggling starting pitchers, I expect plenty of runs here. Even though Jordan Wicks has been piling up strikeouts he has just to complete 5 innings in any of his 4 starts this season. Wicks has allowed 30 baserunners in those 17 innings as he has given up 21 hits plus walked 9! That spells trouble here against an Astros lineup that will be ready to explode after a shutout loss in their most recent game. As for the Cubs, they have scored an average of 6 runs when at Wrigley Field this season and they are facing JP France in this one. The Astros hurler, just like Wicks, has a high WHIP so far this season as he has given up 26 hits plus walked 8 in his 20.1 innings so far this season. Baserunners and hitter friendly conditions expected throughout this one and that means double digits likely here! Don't let the big number keep you away. This is a great spot for a slugfest. OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs

Rotation #953: MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies -117 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - I see no reason to stop riding the Phillies now. Just look at their lineup compared to the Reds lineup. There is no comparison. This Philadelphia team has a very dangerous lineup again this season while Cincinnati has been winning games mostly with pitching as this team is not impressive at the plate. In fact, the Reds .225 batting average ranks down near the bottom of the majors with teams like the Marlins and A's and White Sox and Twins and Cardinals. In fact those 5 teams are a combined 42 games under .500 so far this season! The Reds lack of hitting will catch up with them soon and it is likely right now against a Phillies team that finally got their sticks going. Philadelphia has won 6 straight games and has scored an average of 7.2 runs per game in their 5 most recent victories. The Reds have won 3 straight games but yesterday's game was the 4th time in last 6 games that has seen Cincinnati held to 3 or less runs. The Reds have averaged just 2 runs scored in those 4 games. Conversely, the Phillies have scored at least 4 runs in 8 of last 11 games including at least 5 runs in 5 straight games. The Reds Greene is a strong pitcher who has piled up strikeouts this season but he did allow 6 earned runs in most recent home start. Also, the Phillies Suarez has allowed just 16 hits in 26 innings plus has not allowed any runs in the 15 innings spanning his last two starts! Also, these lineups don't have much experience against these starting pitchers but the Phillies have 5 guys who have enjoyed success versus Greene and those 5 guys are a combined 10 for 21 which is huge! The Reds just have two guys who have had some success against Suarez and those guys are a combined mediocre 3 of 11. The more potent lineup plus a starting pitcher who has thrown 15 straight scoreless frames in his last two starts. Lay it with the road team in this one. PHILADELPHIA -117

Rotation #918: MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -145 vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:35 ET - Not going to change what is working just fine. The White Sox have the worst record in the league and are now 3-17 on the season and 1-8 on the road. The Phillies have won 5 straight games and are swinging hot bats at home. The White Sox have gotten some late runs in recent games but overall continue to slump at the plate. As for Philadelphia, they have now scored an average of 7 runs in their last 4 victories. Aaron Nola gets the ball here and he loves pitching at home. Also, he had a bad first start this season but has been strong ever since and is coming off his best start yet. Curve ball was lethal at home and he has allowed only 9 hits in his last 19 innings plus just 3 solo homers are the only 3 runs in his last 3 starts! Nick Nastrini gets the ball for the White Sox and the 24 year old was strong in his first career MLB start early this week but now he is making his first ever road start! Nastrini was struggling at the AAA level before being called up and he also walked too many batters in spring training so he appears to be prone to lapses in command of his pitches. Facing a hot Phillies team with a number of sluggers is a tough ask for the very first road start of your career. Look for the Phillies to again roll big at home in this one. We have a bit of a price to lay on the run line here but it should prove well worth it! PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -145

Rotation #972: MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -130 vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:05 ET - Of course we are not going to be on the Phillies every day of the season but we are riding with them again today because they are matched up with the team with the worst record in MLB this season! Of course this is why the Phillies are the biggest money line favorite on the board today but there is still value to be had as we can grab the run line at -1.5 runs and get a very fair price. Chicago is now 3-16 on the season. This White Sox team has 4 games where they scored decently (or at least respectable) but in the other 15 games they have averaged only 1 run scored per game! That is incredible! Yes, 15 of 19 games this season have aggregated to just 15 runs - 1 per game! If they have that type of "normal" result for them there, we - in theory - just need 3 runs from the Phillies to win this bet. The fact is Philadelphia's lineup is starting to heat up and they have averaged 6.3 runs in their last 3 games at home! Bohm was the star yesterday. Schwarber and Turner the day before. Harper and Realmuto the day before. All those guys are solid hitters and though Castellanos has slumped so far this season, he and Stott and Marsh in the bottom half of the lineup show just how stacked this team is with hitters compared to a team like the White Sox. Also, Wheeler is 0-3 this season but has pitched very well. Tough luck losses so far. Soroka is 0-2 this season and has struggled with command and has a 6.98 ERA. This game is a complete mismatch again. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -130

Rotation #920: MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -165 / -170 vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:40 ET - Line value here because Garrett Crochet is starting for the White Sox. Lets not forget this is his first year as a starter and he is only 24 and has made only MLB road start. He did pitch okay in that one but lasted only 5 innings. He followed that up with his most recent start coming at home and piling up strikeouts but allowing 5 runs in 4 and 2/3 innings of work. Crochet has good stuff but he is still adjusting to life as a big league starter and he pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball which is a key in terms of the value here also. White Sox are just 3-15 this season. They have won only one of his 4 starts and he has not lasted as long on the mound in his last two starts. The Phillies are at home where they have won 3 straight and 7 of 11 games. Chicago is off a win but this after starting the season 2-14. The Phillies are the hotter and stronger team and are at home. White Sox bullpen ERA is better than Philadelphia's but the WHIP is the same and the Phillies have the much better SO to BB ratio as well. Spencer Turnbull, like Crochet, is off a tougher start. But, unlike Crochet, Turnbull is a long-time starter and is 31 years old. He bounces back here at home while the young White Sox hurler could struggle on the road and the lack of run support will keep the pressure on him. This Chicago team has 3 games where they scored decently but in the other 15 games they have averaged only 1.3 runs scored per game! Philly has not been pounding the ball but they certainly have been better at the plate than the ChiSox. The Phillies have averaged scoring 4 runs per game at home this season including scoring a dozen runs in their last two games at Citizens Bank Park. More of the same here! PHILADELPHIA (-)

Rotation #953: MLB Thursday OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:45 ET - Expected pitching match-up is Logan Webb versus Ryne Nelson. Note that Nelson is struggling early this season and the Giants have hitters with experience against him. In fact, 6 of the 7 that do have gone 11 of 25 against him for a .440 batting average. As for Webb, he is off a solid start but got hit hard (and was fortunate) in his most recent home start and that was preceded by a rough road outing too. Also, the Diamondbacks have a lot of batters with plenty of experience against him so he might not be fooling many guys with his repertoire of pitches in this one. That said, the value is with the over here also because of the bullpens. Currently the Giants bullpen ERA ranks near the bottom of the majors and the Diamondbacks pen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack. Arizona is off a 5-3 loss but had won 5 of 7 games leading into that one. Also, the Dbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game on the season and that includes 5 runs per game last 9 games. The Giants have not hit well early this season overall but have scored an average of nearly 5 runs per game last 7 games and are trending the right direction with wins in 4 of their last 7 games. Interestingly, SF has allowed an average of 7 runs per game this season when coming off a win in their prior game! Arizona has scored an average of 6.5 runs this season when off a loss. I expect similar results here and I expect Nelson's struggles against a number of the SF hitters to continue here. We get a low total because of long-term SF numbers in home games but this one sets up perfectly to get into double digits in runs. OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco

Rotation #912: MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:05 ET - The Rockies, with the extra innings loss in Philly Monday followed by the 5-0 shutout loss yesterday, have dropped to 4-14 on the season and 2-10 in road games. Colorado is now 24-69 in road games since the start of last season. They are one of the worst teams in baseball year after year when away from Coors Field. Though Monday's game was decided by a single run, the Rockies first 8 road losses this season featured 7 by a multi-run margin. The value here is on the run line as we get a pick'em price by taking the Phillies on the run line to win this game by 2 or more runs. After yesterday's 5-0 loss, the 8 road losses the Rockies have by a multi-run margin have come by an average margin of defeat of 6.3 runs! No strangers to blowout defeats away from home, the Rockies are in trouble again here. The Phillies bats have not been as strong as usual early this season but Colorado's Ryan Feltner has struggled in both of his road outings this season. The right-hander has been hammered by lefties early this season and Bryce Harper is heating up plus the Phillies have dangerous left-handed sticks in addition to Harper. Schwarber, Stott and Marsh all could be in line for doing damage against Feltner here. Since entering the league with the Rockies, Feltner is 7-15 with a 5.80 ERA! Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has underperformed so far this season but still is stacked compared to most teams and is starting to show signs of getting the sticks going! The Rockies have been held to 3 or less runs in 9 of 12 road games this season! In those 9 games they have averaged only 1.2 runs scored per game. They face a tough lefty again today after struggling against Suarez yesterday. Now Christopher Sanchez gets the start and he has been strong at home so far this season and is not allowing many hits. Just 9 hits allowed in 11 innings at home while striking out 14 in those 2 starts! He can shut down the Rockies here and Colorado's road struggles continue as Feltner again gets hit hard away from home. This is a great spot for the Phillies lineup to get rolling and the Rockies just can't keep up here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105

Rotation #954: MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:40 ET - The Rockies, with the extra innings loss in Philly yesterday, have dropped to 4-13 on the season and 2-9 in road games. Colorado is now 24-68 in road games since the start of last season. They are one of the worst teams in baseball year after year when away from Coors Field. Though yesterday's game was decided by a single run, the Rockies first 8 road losses this season featured 7 by a multi-run margin. The value here is on the run line as we get a pick'em price by taking the Phillies on the run line to win this game by 2 or more runs. Those 7 losses by a multi-run margin came by an average margin of defeat of 6.4 runs! No strangers to blowout defeats away from home, the Rockies are in trouble again here. The Phillies bats have not been as strong as usual early this season but Colorado's Austin Gomber has struggled in 2 of his 3 outings this season. The southpaw had his worst start of the season thus far on the road at Arizona. Since coming to the Rockies Gomber actually has had two season with a ROAD ERA of 5.98 or more! So the ups and downs of Gomber have not just been because of a tough home venue at Coors Field. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has underperformed so far this season but still is stacked compared to most teams. The Rockies have been held to 3 or less runs in 8 of 11 road games this season! In those 8 games they have averaged only 1.4 runs scored per game. They face a tough lefty as Ranger Suarez has been great so far this season and is not allowing many hits. Just 9 hits allowed in 17 innings and Suarez faced a hot Pirates team and a stellar Braves lineup for 2 of his 3 starts. He can shut down the Rockies here and Colorado's road struggles continue. Gomber gave up quite a bit of hard contact in his most recent start and, remember, that is his only quality outing so far this season. This is a great spot for the Phillies lineup to get rolling and the Rockies just can't keep up here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110

MLB Monday OVER 10 -120 in Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - This is a big total but it is justified. The Braves are the top hitting team in the majors thus far. The Astros are the top hitting team in the American League so far. Also, the Astros bullpen has struggled so far this season and the Braves bullpen has had ups and downs and rank only in the middle of the pack on the young season. As for these starters, I am not convinced of Vines "stuff" in terms of being a major league hurler. He is still young and raw and so give him a chance to develop but will his repertoire of pitches be enough at this level? I am still not convinced. I think the Astros will give him trouble here in his first MLB start of this season. Houston has a pitching concern of their own here as Arrighetti gets the start in this one. He could be back in AAA after this start as Verlander is close to coming back. There is a lot of pressure on the young hurler and he got rocked in his first MLB start versus the Royals and allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. He had not looked overly sharp in the minors either. Arrighetti has a strong arm but he is just not quite ready yet and it is showing in his results. Given all of the above, the over is the play in this one as it should be a slugfest. OVER 10 -120 in Houston

MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies -175 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:35 ET - This one is in the -175 range but I am still willing to lay it. Keller for the Pirates has been rocked in each of his two road starts and those were against lighter-hitting teams. Those were against the Nationals and Marlins. Now he faces a much stronger lineup and the Phillies are likely to get to him early and often. At the same time, the Phillies Zack Wheeler is a tough luck 0-2 so far as he has pitched great and continued to pile up strikeouts. Mitch Keller is a respectable hurler but he is still just 26-39 with a 4.73 ERA in his MLB career. Last year he had a 5.35 ERA on the road and he has already been crushed in both road starts this season! Wheeler, on the other hand, is 22-11 in his home starts for the Phillies and this is a guy with a sub-3.00 ERA in a Phillies uniform. He loves pitching at home in Philly and will handcuff the Pirates here. Pittsburgh has gone just 5-5 since their 5-0 start. Also, not including extra innings runs, the Pirates have been held to 3 or less runs in 7 of their last 10 games. The Phillies are the much stronger lineup and, though not hitting great yet this season, they do enough here at home especially as they take advantage of facing a starting pitcher known for road struggles. Lay the price with confidence here. PHILADELPHIA -175

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 4 ET - I am coming right back with the Phillies today after losing with them yesterday. The Phillies lost B2B games to open this season but have not lost B2B games since. The Phillies are 5-0 L5 times off a loss. The Pirates have been a pleasant early season surprise but had lost 2 straight overall and 2 of last 3 on the road prior to the road win yesterday in the 2nd of 4 games in this series. Both starting pitchers are off to great starts this season but Turnbull has been even better than Gonzales. Turnbull has allowed just 5 hits and struck out 13 while Gonzales has allowed 9 hits and struck out only 6. Both have pitched 11 innings and Gonzales has allowed only 3 earned runs but Turnbull has not allowed any earned runs. The Phillies have a lot of guys with experience against Gonzales and they have had success against him. Turnbull was in the American League and, as you would expect, the Pirates have few hitters with experience against him. Those that do have gone a combined 1 for 11 against him. Phillies bounce back at home and make it 6-0 L6 times when off a loss! PHILADELPHIA (-)

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:40 ET - Bailey Falter is a former Phillie and will be pitching back in Philly for the first time since going to Pittsburgh mid-last season. The added pressure will likely do him no good. Falter has gone 0-6 on the road with a 6.55 ERA since the start of last season! He is road-adverse to say the least and he is in trouble here on the road at Philly. The Pirates over-achieved a little bit early this season but are coming back down to earth and have lost 4 of 8 since their hot start and that includes B2B defeats entering this game. The Phillies, on the other hand, underachieved early but are starting to play better! They have won 5 of 7 including B2B wins. Also, they are known for being a tough team at home in Philly. Sanchez is facing a Pirates team that has 7 hitters that have experience against them. Of those 7, six of them are a combined 0 for 12 against him. Sanchez had a 3.44 ERA last season and was solid in his lone home start so far this season. Remember that last season the Pirates were 7 games under .500 on the road and the Phillies were 17 games over .500 at home. Lets not over-react to the early season results this year. Also, you can already see a shift happening in that regard and it continues here. Look closely at these two lineups and think about which one you would rather have if you were building your own team...exactly! Phillies roll! PHILADELPHIA -160

MLB Thursday: OVER 8.5 -120 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play as the Red Sox and Orioles starters both present impressive ERA numbers and so do the bullpens. Already this posted total has moved from a 9 down to an 8.5 in a number of places. I expect the Red Sox to hit well at home and the Orioles got to the Sox pen yesterday in their huge comeback win and can do that again here. However, also note that Baltimore could get to Whitlock better than most might expect. He has had one day start and one night start this season. He did not allow any earned runs in night start but, in 4 innings  he allowed 4 hits and 4 walks. Last season Whitlock had a 6.34 ERA and a .326 BAA in his night games. As for the O's Rodriguez, he gave up 7 hits and walked 2 in less than 5 innings in his only start versus the Red Sox last season and that was here at Fenway Park. Again, a bit of a contrarian play but you can see exactly why I am expect runs to again flow between these teams, just like yesterday. OVER 8.5 -120 in Boston

MLB Wednesday OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3 ET - The teams combined to go 2 for 13 with runners in scoring position in yesterday's 3-2 Arizona win. Look for much more clutch hitting today! Both these lineups are loaded with guys that have had success against the starting pitcher they are slated to face today. Also, both Austin Gomber and Tommy Henry are off to tough starts this season. The Rockies Gomber is having command issues with his pitches again and walking too many guys. He has made two starts this season and already got rocked when he faced the Diamondbacks in Arizona in the first one. As for the Dbacks Henry, he has allowed 12 hits in 9 innings this season and that includes getting rocked by the Rockies earlier this season. That start was in Arizona too and now he has to face them on the road at Coors Field. Look for both starters to struggle here and note that Arizona bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack and the Rockies bullpen ranks dead last in the NL based on ERA so far this season. This total has dropped from an opener of 12.5 down to a 12 as of 7 hours before first pitch and that also has added value to this play. OVER the total in Colorado

MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies (-) at St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - I am riding the Phillies again today. Sonny Gray is back for the Reds today but likely limited to 65 pitches. Also, he declined on making a rehab start in the minors first. Could that come back to bite him here? I say there is a decent chance it does. The Phillies have some solid left-handed lumber that loves to face righties. Also, in terms of their right-handed bats it was good news for them to see Turner notch 3 hits yesterday plus Rojas, who had been off to a very rough start at the plate, also get 3 hits. The 2-3-4 hitters for the Phillies also had no strikeouts yesterday while each of the 2-3-4 hitters for the Cardinals had multiple strikeouts. The Phillies have Wheeler going today and he has already made 2 starts and has been stellar on the mound yet he has an 0-1 record. That will change to day because I expect Gray to be a bit rusty plus the Cardinals righty might only last 4 innings in this one. The Phillies take advantage as, already, extra bullpen was required yesterday due to the game going 10 innings so the Philly starting pitching edge here becomes an even bigger factor. Also, the Cardinals have been held to 3 or less runs in 4 of last 5 games. The Phillies have not been knocking the cover off the ball either but they have scored an average of 5.3 runs (not including extra innings of course) in the 4 wins in their current 4-2 run last 6 games! Also, the Phillies have won 3 of 4 road games this season and confidence is building again after the tough 2-4 homestand that began their season. Value here with the road team in the -130 price range! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-)

MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies (-) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - This one in the pick'em price range and the Phillies offer great value here. The Cardinals are without a few players and even if catcher Wilson Contreras comes back he is not 100% yet with is hard. The back-up Ivan Herrera has hit okay but the catcher position is so important for how they work with the pitchers and call the games. Keep in mind Miles Mikolas has been around awhile and would likely rather have Contreras, a veteran, behind the plate. Will he even play? Will he be even close to 100%? Not only these questions for the Cards, the Phillies should have the edges here anyway. Better overall lineup and note that the starting pitching shows that Mikolas has been struggling in his first two starts this season. The Phillies Spencer Turnbull has just one start but it was a strong one. Mikolas has allowed 14 hits in 10 innings so far this season. Also, Mikolas allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings in BOTH his starts versus the Phillies last season. Conversely, the Cards have very little experience against Turnbull and the St Louis hitters that do are a combined 3 for 16 against him. We really have big edges here with the Phillies at a great price. Philly is off a loss but has gone 3-0 last 3 times when off a loss. They bounce back here. PHILADELPHIA (-)

MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - I see no reason NOT to ride this situation again. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball in recent seasons. The Nationals could lose 100 games this season. Sanchez is an under-rated hurler for Philly. He is not one of their big name stars but he is a serviceable starter that can absolutely prove effective against a struggling lineup like this Nationals team. The only runs that Washington has in this series are on a 2-run bomb from Joey Gallo. He has only 5 hits in 25 at-bats and, of the 20 outs 10 have come via strikeout! No disrespect to Gallo but he is just not the same hitter he was when he was with the Rangers. That is part of the reason he is on his 5th team in 4 years! You might ask why I am talking so much about just one player but the point is that this is a guy the Nats are relying on - he is their #3 hitter in the lineup - and he strikes out about 50% of the time over the last 5 seasons! Also, Gallo's homer was in the 3rd inning but yesterday (just like Friday) saw Washington not get a single hit after the 3rd inning! So laying this price (as low as the 140 range) with the better team, better lineup, better bullpen (yes they are better despite struggles earlier in the season)...this is a VALUE price. PHILADELPHIA (-)

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - You can reduce your wager level on this one a bit because the money line is in the -175 range. However, I feel this is well worth the investment level and should cash us a nice ticket. Yes, both teams are struggling early this season but, for the Nationals, that was to be expected while the Phillies are certainly expected to be the much stronger team this season. That said, this is the classic case of buy low, sell high because this price would be much higher if the Phillies were off to a hot start as I mentioned in yesterday's write-up on this same match-up. In this case we take advantage of the value as this line could have easily rather been above a -200 fave level. Just like Nola and the Phillies bullpen yesterday, Suarez will take advantage of facing a weaker lineup here. The Phillies stats are a little skewed because of their first two games being ugly. Note that since then, not including extra innings of course, the Phillies have allowed only 2.8 runs per game last 5 games! As for the Nationals, they have consistently allowed big runs as, prior to yesterday they had given up 6 or more runs in 5 of their 6 games. Also, though both teams faced the Reds, the Nationals also faced the Pirates (losing season again last year) while the Phillies faced the Braves (off another huge season last year). The Phillies Suarez is a tough southpaw and the Nats Jake Irvin went 3-7 with a 4.61 ERA last season. Road rout here! PHILADELPHIA (-)

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 6:45 ET - You can reduce your wager level on this one a bit because the money line is in the -175 range. However, I feel this is well worth the investment level and should cash us a nice ticket. Yes, both teams are 2-4 this season but, for the Nationals, that was to be expected while the Phillies are certainly expected to be the much stronger team this season. That said, this is the classic case of buy low, sell high because this price would be much higher if the Phillies were off to a hot start and if Nola had a good first start. In this case we take advantage of the value as this line would have easily rather been above a -200 fave level. Nola will take advantage of facing a weaker lineup here. The Phillies stats are a little skewed because of their first two games being ugly. Note that since then, not including extra innings of course, the Phillies have allowed only 3.5 runs per game last 4 games! As for the Nationals, they have consistently allowed big runs as they have given up 6 or more runs in 5 of their 6 games. Also, though both teams faced the Reds, the Nationals also faced the Pirates (losing season again last year) while the Phillies faced the Braves (off another huge season last year). Also factor in that Corbin gets the start for the Nationals here and note that he has a 27-57 record since the start of the 2020 season and has an ERA in th 6.00 range since the start of the 2021 season. Road rout here! PHILADELPHIA (-)

MLB Wednesday OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET - The Padres have scored just 2 runs in each of the last two games - both losses - versus the Cardinals. However, they will take advantage of facing Zach Thompson here. The Cardinals southpaw has allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his only start this season. He was rocked for 3 homers in that game. San Diego will see their bats wake up as a result in this one. Keep in mind the Padres scored an average of 8.6 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding that. The Cardinals have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 4 games and they should stay hot at the plate here as well. St Louis will take advantage of facing a struggling Joe Musgrove. The Padres right-hander has been hit hard in both his starts this season and has given up 9 earned runs in 8.1 innings. More of the same here and we take advantage of the rather low total posted here. OVER 8.5 in San Diego

MLB Tuesday OVER 8 -115 in Oakland vs Boston @ 9:40 ET - A's were shutout yesterday but scored 11 runs in the 3 games prior to that and their 4-3 win is the only game this season in which totals runs have not reached an 8. I like the value because I like the Athletics bats to bounce back off the shutout loss just like they did with 4 runs in a 6-4 loss after they were shutout in their season opener. Also, the A's have allowed 7.6 runs per game this season and though I think they will hit Bello - he has a 4.35 ERA in his career. Also, Oakland will get hit as Wood struggled badly in his first start this season and he also has only had one decent season since his big years with the Dodgers ended all the way back in 2018. The Red Sox faced some tough Seattle pitching to open the season but will really get the bats going here in Oakland just like they did last night. OVER 8 -115 in Oakland

MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - This is a value spot for the Phillies as they are in the -140 range on their home field. Philadelphia was red hot at home for the final months of the regular season and into the post-season last year before they got upset by Arizona in the NLCS. That said, they are undervalued here against a Reds team that is projected to be a .500 team this season. Christopher Sanchez is a scrappy southpaw that had a 3.44 ERA last season and really showed improvement in his 3rd MLB season. He was solid in a start against Cincinnati in 2022 and then it is an edge too that the Reds did not face him last season. Cincinnati is starting Andrew Abbott and last season he started well but then note he had an ERA above 6.00 in both of the final two months of the season - August and September. He seemed to carry those struggles right into this year as his spring training was rough. In fact, he is likely only starting because Williamson and Lodolo are currently out with injuries! Take advantage of this because in this spot we absolutely have the pitching edge and team edge and home field edge too of course. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-)

MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies +120 vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:35 ET - All Star break 2022. What does that have to do with this game? Well the last time the Phillies got swept in a series of 3 or more games on their home field was against the Cubs in July of 2022 in Philadelphia's first series after the All-Star break. The point is that, on Sunday, the Braves are trying to do something no team has done since a season and a half ago! Chris Sale appears to be healthy but this is first real test in awhile after some ups and downs in the spring. Ranger Suarez was solid against the Braves last season including facing him twice in the post-season. Also, in his final 4 starts against Atlanta in 2022 he allowed a TOTAL of only TWO earned runs. Look for Suarez to have a strong start and Sale to struggle here and the Phillies finally get up off the mat after two rough games versus the Braves to start the new season. The first game the Phillies pen imploded then the second game Nola imploded. Look for the Phillies to bounce back here and we take advantage of the home dog value and bank on something NOT happening that has not happened in over a year and a half! PHILADELPHIA +120

MLB Saturday: Philadelphia Phillies (+) vs Atlanta Braves @ 4 ET - This is a great home dog spot for the Phillies off a loss yesterday. Their bullpen failed them yesterday but don't judge a team on one game. The Phillies beat the Braves (again!) in the post-season last year and that including beating today's starter (Fried). The Braves southpaw is certainly a solid starter but this Philly lineup has had some success against him. As for the Phillies Nola, he has been known throughout his career for being tougher when he pitches at home. Also, he has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts versus the Braves. Fried allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in just 4 innings when he faced the Phillies in October and that start was in Atlanta. It certainly will not get any easier now facing them in Philly. Grab the under-valued home dog in this one that is getting as high as +120 on the money line in some spots as of 4 hours before first pitch! We'll take it! PHILADELPHIA (+)

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers -105/-110 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:03 ET - I am keeping this write-up very short because the fact is both Gallen and Eovaldi have had some hiccups in the playoffs but both are rock solid pitchers and it is actually hard to say which version of each we see in this match-up. However, what we do know is that we should see a red hot Rangers lineup continuing to pound away while all the pressure is on the Diamondbacks lineup as this game is do or die for them. So you have a very relaxed road team that knows they have 3 chances to win just 1 game while the home team in this match-up knows their season ends tonight if they lose. Which team do you think will be more relaxed at the plate in this one? Exactly! And that Rangers team also has been dominating on the road all post-season long and that is why I am making this play. I respect the Dbacks Gallen but the Rangers Eovaldi is solid and Texas is 10-0 in the post-season on the road and has won those games by a combined score of 66 to 29! They are not just squeaking by and their soaring confidence carries forward to winning it all here and making it a perfect 11-0 in the post-season! 10* TEXAS -105/-110

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers @ 8:03 ET - I know last night's game stayed under the total and burned us but I am coming right back with the over in this match-up. This is a bullpen game tonight and the Diamondbacks should get their fair share of runs tonight on their home field but they are up against the team that, in this post-season, has been the hottest team on the road without a doubt. Texas has won all 9 playoff road games and - prior to last night - had hammered starters and bullpens for a pile of runs in most recent road contests too. This continues here but also I do expect Arizona to do some damage here as well. The Diamondbacks, prior to last night's game, had been very hot since the comeback over the Phillies after they were down 2-0 in that series. They entered last night's Game 3 having won 5 of 7 games and having scored at least 4 runs in 5 of last 6 games. In their last 4 games, prior to last night's surprising 3-1 loss, they averaged 6 runs per game. The Rangers have averaged 6 runs per game in winning 9 straight road games. Prior to last night's surprisingly low-scoring game, 6 of last 7 Texas games had totaled double digits and 8 straight Rangers games had totaled at least 9 runs. Great value on this total at 9 runs or 9.5 runs and plus money which is what we are seeing at mid-day Tuesday. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers @ 8:03 ET - This is the spot where Pfaadt's bubble bursts. He has been very successful in this post-season which is surprising given the young hurler's results at the MLB level. That said, I don't see it lasting all the way through. Now he makes a World Series start against the team that, in this post-season, has been the hottest team on the road without a doubt. Texas has won all 8 playoff road games and has hammered starters and bullpens for a pile of runs in most recent road contests too. This continues here but also Arizona should do some damage here as well. The Diamondbacks have been very hot since the comeback over the Phillies after they were down 2-0 in that series. They have since won 5 of 7 games in and have scored at least 4 runs in 5 of last 6 games. In their last 4 games they averaged 6 runs per game. Scherzer has not been working deep in starts for the Rangers and he has been a bit shaky. The Rangers have averaged 6.5 runs per game in winning 8 straight home games. 6 of last 7 Texas games have totaled double digits and 8 straight Rangers games have totaled at least 9 runs. Great value on this total at 9 runs or 9.5 runs and plus money which is what we are seeing at mid-day Monday. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Friday 8* Texas Rangers Money Line -150 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:03 ET - Not crazy about the line here but laying 8* in the -150 range is the same as laying 10* on a -120 in terms of the risk amount. That said, I like the value here with the home team having a decided pithing edge too. Gallen was a little shaky in the Philly series and the Rangers Eovaldi is a perfect 4-0 in this post-season and has really turned things up a notch. Yes I know that the road team has won 11 of Rangers 12 post-season games and 7 in a row (entire series with Astros saw road team win all) but this looks like the spot that bucks this trend. The Dbacks are scoring an average of just 3 runs in their last 5 road games. The Rangers have scored 6 runs per game last 9 games overall and, in terms of home games, have scored 5 runs per game in the post-season. Dating back to regular season too, the last 9 home games for Texas has seen them average 6 runs per game. 8* TEXAS -150

MLB Tuesday 7* Philadelphia Phillies -165 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - I know this line is pricey and we could go to the run line given the string of multi-run victories in Phillies wins in this post-season. However, being a Game 7 and a chance to get to the World Series we could see a tight finish decided by a single run. I do not want to get burned on the run line in this one. That said, instead of laying 10* on a run line we'll reduce our rating to 7* and go with a money line bet here for nearly the same risk amount as a 10* run line. I know Pfaadt shocked the Phillies in the first meeting in this series but now that they will see him again and see him in Philly this time, the same thing will not happen! Unlike Pfaadt and his inconsistent ways that led to a high ERA this season, Suarez has been consistently solid for the Phillies and I look for him to come up big here at home in this one. The Phillies have just been too strong at home to lose back to back games on heir home field to end the season. So, look for them to come up big here and rely on last season's post-season experience to carry them past the pressure of a Game 7 in this NLCS. 7* PHILADELPHIA -165

MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +115 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 5:07 ET - The money line for this one is just a little too high for me from a risk standpoint. I look for the Phillies to close out this series with a win here and will turn to the run line for the better value in this one. Here is the key in regards to this...the Phillies last 9 wins have all come by at least a 2-run margin and that includes all 8 in this post-season. Also, those 9 wins have come by an average margin of 5 runs per game and there is nothing average about that! Certainly I have respect for the Dbacks Kelly but the Phillies got to him for 3 homers in the first meeting in this series and they are so strong here at home. Nola gets the start for Philadelphia here and has been vintage Nola in this post-season. He has held opponents to a .182 batting average and has not allowed any homers in his 18.2 innings in this post-season. The Diamondbacks have not a had one-run loss on the road since early August! So, again, if you like the Phillies to win here at home you can rest a little easier in terms of laying the run line when you consider numbers like this. Arizona's last 16 road losses have all come by a multi-run margin! Hats off to the Dbacks for those wins in Game 3 and Game 4 at home but then losing Game 5 at home completely reversed all that momentum and Philly will be rocking tonight for this one. The Phillies also have the post-season experience edge and appear destined to get back to the World Series. How confident can we be in that assessment? Well the Phillies are now a PERFECT 11-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. 10 of those 11 have come by at least a 2-run margin including all 6 in this post-season! Look for this home team multi-run win streak to reach a perfect 7-0 in this post-season right here for the Phillies. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +115

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line +105 @ Houston Astros @ 8:03 ET - For those of you that like playing trends or streaks, the crazy fact is that the road team has won all 5 of these games. The Rangers should be rejoicing in the fact that the series returns to Houston. All kidding aside, the road team "advantage" likely to continue here because I love this pitching match-up too. Just look at the stats on these guys. Eovaldi is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA in the post-season. Valdez is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in the post-season! Not only that, the Rangers are a perfect 6-0 in this post-season in road games! The Astros won their very first game of the post-season at home but, since then, the road team is a perfect 8-0 in Astros games! Look for that streak to reach 9-0 here as the Rangers get it done behind a strong start from Eovaldi and they pound Valdez. The latter has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 16 and 1/3 innings! The former has dominated in all 3 of his post-season outings and appears to be "in the zone" and pitching with a ton of confidence. The road team domination continues in this series and we'll see you for Game 7 tomorrow! 10* TEXAS +105

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -120 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies and Diamondbacks are now knotted up in this series. This is a critical Game 5 and I like the fact Wheeler outdueled Gallen in Game 1 and is certainly capable of the same here. Wheeler dominated in road games this season. Also, the Phillies, despite B2B losses, are still 8-3 last 11 games and the 3 losses were ALL one-run losses while the 8 wins were by a combined score of 51 to 9. That is an average score of 6 to 1 and that compares to a 4-3 average score in their 3 losses. The point is that the Phillies very easily could have won all 11 of these games and I fully expect a bounce back here. Arizona is just 7-6 last 13 games dating back to regular season and they scored an average of just 1 run per game in those 6 losses. The Dbacks are a quality team that deserves to be here for sure. But the point of all the above is that the Phillies still rate a notch above them. Also, in a critical Game 5 like this, that post-season experience Philly got last season really helps them. You saw the Astros make it 3-2 in their series yesterday and I expect the Phillies to do the same here as the post-season pressure experience from last season pays off. Looks like we could be headed toward an Astros-Phillies rematch. But, first things first, the Phillies must win here or they are really up against it even though the series shifts back to Philly after this. Wheeler and Co get it done here! 10* PHILADELPHIA -120

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - The Phillies bounce back here. This is a great value spot because they have one of their lesser known pitchers on the mound so it is keeping the price down on Philly. The fact is Christopher Sanchez has been quite well and yet he is flying under the radar right now. Also, the Diamondbacks are expected to use Mantiply as an opener and then go with Ryne Nelson to get the bulk of the work on the mound. The problem is Nelson may not last long and Mantiply is not expected to get much worth either. Both guys have struggled recently but the most important is the expected bulk innings guys just got rocked by the Phillies a few days ago. Coming into this series, and it is evident so far in this series as well, Philadelphia has the bullpen edge in this match-up. Now Arizona is going with a bullpen game here. This is an ideal set up for the Phillies bats to come right back to life after a surprisingly successful start from Pfaadt last night for the Dbacks. Lay the money line price here as it is a fair one and the Phillies have all the edges except for home field in this Game 4 match-up and I expect a big bounce back effort from the power-hitting Philly sticks in this one given the pitching situation for Arizona. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 5:07 ET - The Phillies have Suarez on the mound and he rates a big edge over Pfaadt! Not only that the Phillies are simply flying with confidence right now. The fans for this one, even though it is in Arizona, could actually feature a surprising amount of Philly fans as the Diamondbacks are simply not a big draw down there. The Phillies have been dominating and this is a tough spot for Pfaadt to face a power hitting lineup and Suarez was great late in the regular season especially and has been solid already in this post-season. He has really come through in the most pressure-filled portion of the season. So the Phillies also hold the pitching edge here too and that includes the bullpen edge as well. So look for Philadelphia's to continue their hot roll. The Phillies have won 8 of 9 games and 7 of 8 in this post-season. Their only loss was by 1 run in this post-season and their 7 wins have been by a combined score of 42 to 8. That is an average score of 6 to 1. The point is they are not just winning, they are dominating! They have been crushing teams and, having already beaten the Dbacks two best pitchers I do not see a problem with them beating Pfaadt in this match-up. That is not a knock against Pfaadt, that is just that the Phillies lineup has been too much and he is not quite ready for this stage. This Philly lineup is loaded with sluggers and Chase Field is also a hitter friendly back like Citizens Bank Park. The ball will be flying here and that favors the red hot Phillies sluggers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line -126 vs Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - As I mentioned entering the ALCS, this Rangers lineup is the better of the two lineups in this match-up. Sure enough they have done enough to win the first two games of this series and those were both in Houston! Don't let this line now fool you in Game 3. The odds makers set it this way for a reason. Watch so many pile up on Houston to avoid a 3-0 hole here because they have Javier on the mound and he has pitched well recently and Scherzer is coming back from injury and has not pitched in quite awhile. Many will be pounding the champs to get back on track here and get back into this series but sometimes teams are a team of destiny. As you can see so far in this post-season, does it not look like both the Phillies and the Rangers are destined to make the World Series this year? Philadelphia has looked so powerful so far and the Rangers have a great mix of talent and clubhouse cohesiveness that has led to a red hot run! Texas has now won all 7 of their post-season games and they also are a perfect 6-0 L6 home games dating back to regular season! This Game 3 of ALCS will be just their 2nd home game of this post-season and it will be an incredible atmosphere for sure. The Rangers continue to ride the wave of emotion and make it 7 straight home wins and also improve to a perfect 8-0 in the post-season. Look for Javier to struggle just enough on the road for the Rangers to get that early lead and look for Scherzer to make up for his only playoff start in 2022 being a rough one. He wanted this opportunity for redemption and will make the most of it. That is my prediction for this one! 10* TEXAS -126

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - Before this NLCS, what a series with the Braves that just wrapped in Philly in terms of Game 3 filled with homers in a raucous Philly environment and then a tight, low-scoring win to wrap things up in Game 4. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat here. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta last Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one (Game 2 after the 5-3 win in Game 1 vs Arizona) now a PERFECT 10-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. Have you looked at this Phillies lineup? Imagine you are a starting pitcher in MLB, who the hell do you want to pitch to?  This lineup is so stacked and so deep!  Yes, I think highly of this Diamondbacks club and they are a great team but they're facing a tough test here and unlikely to steal a game at Citizens Bank Park. I feel the lower portion of Arizona's lineup is just not quite as strong. As for Philly, the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup in this post-season have included guys like Realmuto, Castellanos, and Marsh!  Those guys are all dangerous hitters that can take you deep.  This is the back half of the lineup folks!  This Phillies team has an incredibly dangerous and deep lineup that is also known for being so strong at home.  Yes, Merrill Kelly is a fantastic pitcher but, as his stats clearly show, he is much more likely to struggle when facing this Phillies team here in Philly than when he faces them in Arizona. Kelly has had some road struggles this season and did struggle overall in a few of his late season starts. Aaron Nola is a fantastic veteran pitcher and was strong late in the season and also to begin the post-season and I like Philadelphia here at home even though the price is a bit moderate in the -160 range. Nola also is supported by a rock solid bullpen and I do feel strongly that Philly has the bullpen edge in this match-up. This Philly team takes that aforementioned home team run to 11 IN A ROW! Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -160

MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:07 ET - What a series that just wrapped in Philly in terms of Game 3 filled with homers in a raucous Philly environment and then a tight, low-scoring win to wrap things up in Game 4. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat here. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one (series opener hosting Arizona) now a PERFECT 9-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. Have you looked at this Phillies lineup? Imagine you are a starting pitcher in MLB, who the hell do you want to pitch to?  This lineup is so stacked and so deep!  Yes, I think highly of this Diamondbacks club and they are a great team but their facing a tough test here and unlikely to steal Game 1. I feel lower portion of Arizona's lineup is just not quite as strong. As for Philly, the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup in this post-season have included guys like Realmuto, Castellanos, and Marsh!  Those guys are all dangerous hitters that can take you deep.  This is the back half of the lineup folks!  This Phillies team has an incredibly dangerous and deep lineup that is also known for being so strong at home.  Yes, Zac Gallen is a fantastic pitcher but, as his stats clearly show, he is much more likely struggle when facing this Phillies team here in Philly than when he faces them in Arizona. Gallen has had some road struggles this season. Zack Wheeler is a great pitcher and I like Philadelphia here at home even though the price is a bit moderate in the -160 range. Wheeler als is supported by a rock solid bullpen and I do feel strongly that Philly has the bullpen edge in this match-up. This Philly team takes that aforementioned home team run to 10 IN A ROW! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA -160

MLB Sunday Texas Rangers Money Line +123 @ Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - The Astros actually finished 3 games below .500 at home in the regular season this year. The Rangers, of course, playing in their home state too. Not much of a trip to head down to Houston from the Dallas area. That said, I really like Texas to steal a game down here in Houston and get home field advantage. Home field was nothing special for the Astros and they face a tough pitcher here. I know Montgomery struggled in his most recent start but this followed 5 straight stellar outings including his first of this post-season. Montgomery allowed a TOTAL of only TWO earned runs in those FIVE starts! He averaged 7 innings per start also so this was a phenomenal stretch of work and one bad start will not change all that. Montgomery bounces back here and now lets talk about Verlander. He is off a strong start but did get roughed up at home in a few of his post-season starts last year and this Rangers lineup is the better of the two lineups in this match-up. They will surprise here and this reason the money line on the Astros is so low here. Don't let the low line fool you. The odds makers set it this way for a reason. Watch so many pile up on Houston at home here with Verlander on the mound and then fall short. That is my prediction for this one! 10* TEXAS +123

MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +130 vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:07 ET - What a Game 3 filled with homers in a raucous Philly environment yesterday. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat there. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one now a PERFECT 8-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons after yesterday's 10-2 win. Have you looked at his Phillies lineup? Imagine you are a starting pitcher in MLB, who the hell do you want to pitch to?  This lineup is so stacked and so deep!  Yes, the Braves are a great team but their lineup really drops off after the top guys.  As for Philly, the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup yesterday were Realmuto, Castellanos, and Marsh!  Those guys are all dangerous hitters that can take you deep.  This is the back half of the lineup folks!  This Phillies team has an incredibly dangerous and deep lineup that is also known for being so strong at home.  Yes, Strider is a fantastic pitcher but facing this Phillies team with a chance to win this series in Philly after the way they were swinging the bats yesterday is going to be a totally different situation than when he faced them in Atlanta.  Also, Suarez was solid in his short start at Atlanta earlier in the series.  He is a gamer who has been in strong late-season form and is supported by a rock solid bullpen.  This is a classic case where starting pitching is given so much weight in the marketplace that the team value going against the market perception is off the charts.  Huge home dog value here.  This Philly team takes that aforementioned home team run to 9 IN A ROW!  Take advantage of the fantastic underdog price being offered here.  PHILADELPHIA +130

MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 vs Atlanta Braves @ 5:07 ET - After a crushing loss the Phillies had two bits of good news after letting Game 2 slip away at Atlanta ... actually 3. First off the Phillies got an off day to recuperate yesterday and secondly they are now back home in Philly. Thirdly, the Braves do not even know who their starting pitcher will be and that truly speaks volumes. The Atlanta rotation is just not what it once was. They already used their top two starters and, think about it, they have only played 2 games since the regular season ended a week and a half ago and they still do not know who to start here. Again, this speaks volumes. The Braves could just go with an opener or go with Edler (seemed to wear down late in season). Elder allowed 13 earned runs in 12.1 innings to finish the season. Another option would be to go with young starter AJ Smith-Shawver. However, he is just 20 years old and would be making an appearance on the road in a raucous Philly environment. About that environment, the Phillies are so tough to beat there. They went 49-32 in the regular season plus, prior to the loss at Atlanta Monday, the Phillies were 12-2 against NL foes in the post-season the past two years and enter this one a PERFECT 7-0 in home games against NL teams the past two post-seasons. Aaron Nola is known for pitching very tough at home throughout his career and showed up big late in the season and in the playoffs against Miami already. He can get the job done again here. PHILADELPHIA -120

MLB Tuesday OVER 9 in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:03 ET - Look for a carry-over from the crazy high-scoring Game 2 in this series. Kremer will struggle in this spot on the road and the Rangers are swinging red hot bats. At the same time, Eovaldi was hit harder than it looked in his post-season start against the Rays last week. That said, we get some line value here because both these starters are solid pitchers with good numbers but these are two very solid lineups and both playing with a lot of confidence after the way Game 2 played out in particular. The hot hitting carries over here and this one should fly over the total. Eovaldi got some key double play balls plus there were a lot of line drives hit against him at Tampa Bay. Hats off to him for still getting the job done but he won't be so fortunate against an Orioles lineup that is more potent than the Rays plus knowing this is a do or die spot for them. Kremer is making his post-season debut and it is on the road and he was a little shaky in a couple of his final starts in the regular season that just wrapped up last month. OVER 9 in Texas

MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies +140 @ Atlanta Braves @ 6:07 ET - I have a ton of respect for the Braves and also for Max Fried. However, as I noted on my previously plays about these Phillies they are a very special team and a great club in their own right. Since they decided to use a lot of bullpen in Saturday's Game 1 win, the off day Sunday was very valuable for the Phillies. Look for Philadelphia to not need much pen here anyway though because Zack Wheeler had a great season on the road this year and that included a recent gem at Atlanta as well. Again, Fried is tough but Wheeler is just as good and the Phillies are the defending NL champs and playing with a lethal combo of poise and confidence and also are loaded with talent. Atlanta is a great team and many will back them to avoid the 0-2 hole here in this series but this is merely serving to give us even more value with a superb underdog. The Phillies have won 14 of 19 games and the Braves have gone just 8-9 last 17 games. The underdog with a top hurler on the mound is absolutely the value play here. PHILADELPHIA +140

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - Strider has been great for the Braves and there is no questioning that. However, just like last season, there is something special going on in Philly and they really believe they can again go all the way to the World Series. Suarez is under-rated as he is a pitcher that is much better than his record shows. That said, getting 1.5 runs here at a pick'em price is a solid bargain. It is not that this game is priced wrong, it is just that this what the markets demand and the fact is that means line value with the Phillies. Philadelphia won their two wild card games against Miami by a combined score of 11 to 2. They have won 13 of 19 games and only 2 of their last 19 games have resulted in a loss by a margin of 2 or more runs. Strider has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and allowed an average of 4 earned runs in those 4 outings! Suarez had a bad final outing of the season but had been running solid prior to that including entering this start having allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in last 3 road starts. Phillies hang around in this one and might even steal Game one of this series this evening. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -115

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -150 vs Miami Marlins @ 8:08 ET - Two good teams and two quality pitchers here but home field edge plus post-season experience edge plus a vintage Nola performance should all combine for another big Phillies win today. Note that Aaron Nola closed the season with a pair of quality outings and he continues to love pitching in Philly. Historically he has great numbers at home and he went 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA at home this season despite not always having his best stuff. That shows how comfortable he is on his home mound. Nola held opponents to a .212 batting average here in Philly. Braxton Garrett is a solid young hurler for the Marlins but still he entered this season with a 5-10 combined record through his first 3 seasons in the majors and now makes his post-season debut in a road start at raucous Philly! Though he had a solid season this year he was 6-7 with a 4.46 ERA in his night starts this year. Look for the Phillies to set up a date with the division rival Braves by knocking off the Marlins again tonight in a solid home win. 10* PHILADELPHIA -150

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -155 vs Miami Marlins @ 8:08 ET - The Marlins went 33-13 in one-run games this season. That tells you two things. One is that they are pretty solid team to be so strong in games like that. However, the other thing is that certainly has been a lot of luck involved too. No other team gets close to that record in 1-run games and I feel strongly that the Miami luck will run out here in Philly in this series. Adding to the value here is Marlins are 4 games under .500 on the road this season and are just 38-50 against teams with a winning record this season. Philly went a solid 49-32 in home games this season. Also, the Phillies send Zack Wheeler to the mound and he rates edges over Jesus Luzardo in my opinion. The latter started to fade some as the season went on. In fact, Luzardo is 2-5 with a 4.70 ERA the past two months. He has a 4.48 ERA on the road and has been hit at a .276 clip away from home. Wheeler, on the other hand, went 6-2 with a 3.08 ERA and held opponents to a .204 batting average since the All-Star break. The Phillies also hold a bullpen edge here and post-season experience edge in addition to home field edge. That is a lot of edges for a game priced in this range and I feel we have huge value as a result here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -155

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line +100 @ Minnesota Twins @ 4:38 ET - Both pitchers off strong September performances but Gausman held hitters to a .189 batting average for the month while Lopez got hit at a .246 clip and is getting hit at a .262 clip since the All Star break. Gausman compiled a 2.58 ERA in day games this season. Lopez had a 4.25 ERA in day games this season. Toronto is on the road for this series but their road record this season was just as strong as Minnesota's home record this season. Also, the AL East was so much stronger than the AL Central this season. Note that the Blue Jays come from the much stronger division and they went 22-10 against teams from the AL Central while the Twins went 13-19 against teams from the AL East. The point is that if the Jays were in the Central and Minnesota was in the East I would bet big money that Toronto wins 100 games and the Twins do not even make the playoffs. All of this said, and with the Blue Jays having a slight bullpen edge too, we have solid line value here with the road team in my opinion. 10* TORONTO +100

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - The Yankees are off a shutout loss yesterday but this followed wins in 5 of last 6 games and New York scored an average of 5 runs in the 5 victories. As for Kansas City, the Royals are off 3 straight losses and allowed 7 runs per defeat on average. However, KC is certainly happy to back home and the sweep at the hands of Detroit followed a hot stretch for Kansas City. The Royals had won 10 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game prior to falling apart against the Tigers. The bats should bounce back against Rodon here as the Yankees southpaw has been nothing special this season. As for the Royals Lyles, he is having a very rough season overall and the Yankees hammered him earlier this season and the same should hold true here. He is 5-17 with a 6.24 ERA on the year. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday 7* Toronto Blue Jays -175 or -180 vs New York Yankees @ 7:07 ET - Generally speaking I do not like to lay bigger money line prices but it already helped us out recently on a couple of 1-run wins that we would have lost had we played the run line at -1.5 runs. That said, this one is in an price range that makes it worth a 7* money line play rather than a 10* run line play and I like this spot for a Blue Jays win. Toronto has lost B2B games at home to the Yankees and each loss was via a shutout! But today they go from facing Gerrit Cole to facing Luke Weaver. I know the latter is off a rare solid outing, though short, but he is no Cole. Overall he has struggled this season and the Blue Jays should pound him. I also look for Chris Bassitt, having a solid season, to come up big here as Toronto still has work to do to lock up a post-season spot! The Yankees would like to prevent that of course but, prior to this 3-game win streak for New York, they had been struggling badly. Those struggles resume here as this one is a much different situation and the pitching favors the host. Off RARE B2B home losses, I am sure of the focus the Blue Jays will bring to the ball park for this one! 7* TORONTO -175 or -180

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles -120 vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:35 ET - I know Chris Sale has been pitching very well for the Red Sox and piling up strikeouts. However, there has been one exception recently and it is nothing new actually this season. Not only did Sale get rocked by the Orioles earlier this month, he also has been hammered by them in all 3 match-ups with them this entire season! In other words, the odds favor another rough outing for him here at Baltimore. As for the Orioles, they are trying to lock up the AL East division and Dean Kremer has solid numbers this season. That said, I am looking for the host to get the win here and I am taking advantage of the line value being afforded by Chris Sale being on the mound for the Red Sox. Note that he has allowed 18 earned runs in 12 innings against them this season and was rocked in all 3 starts. In other words, it is not a fluke and I look for more of the same here. 10* BALTIMORE -120

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs  Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Sheehan has been quite impressive at times  for the Dodgers but also has been a bit "hit and miss" per se so he is not yet a model of consistency and Coors Field is a tough place to pitch. That said, I am expecting the Rockies to get to him here on a hitter-friendly evening as the weather is good and the ball will be carrying very well as usual at Coors Field. The Rockies are expected to start Davis and he will struggle here against a potent Dodgers team. LA is very relaxed at the plate right now because they are essentially locked into the #2 seed for the post-season. They won't catch the Braves but also the Brewers will not catch them so LA can continue to be very relaxed at the plate. Yesterday Game 2 of the double header was an 11-2 Dodgers win and the first game saw each team just miss the double digit mark in hits though the game stayed well under as Colorado got a surprising win in that opener. The Rockies entered this series having scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their last 10 games at home and each team used some extra bullpen yesterday. The Dodgers have won 13 of 19 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. They can explode again at Coors Field like they did in yesterday's nightcap but the Rockies should join the hit parade party in this one as well. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado 

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates +110 @ Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:40 ET - I  do not think the Phillies are too concerned with the Pirates right now! They were yesterday but for sure but that 3-2 win in the 10th inning was the first walk-off playoff-clinching home win since 1920 and it came in extra innings after they blew a 2-0 lead. The celebrations at home were huge for Philly last night and I expect a rather disinterested bunch for this one! Conversely, the Pirates are a scrappy group as they showed again yesterday and also Johan Oviedo has been pitching very well. So, even though Ranger Suarez has also been pitching well for the Phillies, I think he could be supported by a different lineup than usual as Philadelphia may rest some guys. Also, any Phillie that does play may not be 100% after last night's post-game festivities. Look for the road dog to take advantage as Oviedo and the Pirates will be the more focused group. 10* PITTSBURGH +110

MLB Tuesday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 or -165 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:40 ET - After a subpar season by Nola standards, would it not be fitting for him to come out and throw another gem for the Phillies to punch their ticket to the post-season tonight. Of course it would here at home and I can absolutely envision that happening no matter whom the Pirates put on the mound for this one. The veteran Philadelphia right-hander is coming off a great start and that was at Atlanta against the Braves. Nola certainly can get the job done here at home against a Pirates team that is not nearly on Atlanta's level. Pittsburgh is a scrappy team but they are 33-57 against teams with a winning record this season! The Phillies, on the other hand, enter this game 45-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Phils have won 5 straight games and I look for them to stay red hot right here and clinch a post-season berth. Keep in mind a 10* at -128 juice is the same risk amount as a 8* at a -160 price. This is worth a 8* play in my book and I expect another Phillies winner for us here! 8* PHILADELPHIA -160 to -165

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - Look like Olson for the Tigers here Greinke for the Royals but, regardless of starting pitchers in this one I like the over. Right now KC is tied with Texas as the hottest teams in the American League and Philadelphia is the hottest team in the National League - in terms of current hot streaks. Kansas City has actually won 10 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Tigers bullpen is not great and the Royals bullpen has been bad this season. I know Detroit is not known for scoring well but they have won 7 of 11 games and averaged 4.6 runs per game in those 11 games. We only need 8 runs here to be a winner and Greinke is 1-15 with a 5.37 ERA on the season. If it is Reese Olson for Detroit here, he has been pitching well. However, this Royals team is hot at the plate and playing with a lot of confidence right now. I could see him struggling and this total is just far too low given all the variables here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Detroit

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 9:38 ET - The Angels lineup is definitely not what it once was but they will take advantage of facing a struggling hurler today. Jon Gray is having a horrible September and it has been so bad he has not been able to work deep into starts and that could put pressure on the Rangers bullpen arms here after hanging on by a thread in yesterday's 9-8 win. Speaking of bad Septembers, that is also the case with Patrick Sandoval. That being said, there is a lot of value with the over in this one. Of course the Rangers are a big money line favorite here for a reason and they are a solid favorite at 1.5 runs on the run line for a reason too! I expect a 6-4 type game here at a minimum as the result. Note that Texas has allowed at least 4 runs in 6 of last 7 games. Also, the posted total on this game is 9 runs and 11 of the Rangers last 14 games have totaled at least 9 runs with 10 of those 11 getting to double digits! Texas has scored an average of 8 runs during their current 5-game winning streak. Even though the Angels are simply playing out the string on a tough season, they have had won 2 of 4 before yesterday's loss and, other than a 1-0 win in their five most recent games, LA did average 5 runs scored in the other 4 games. Given the pitching match-up and the current status of these two bullpens, both lineups should enjoy plenty of success here. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels

MLB Sunday 7* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -170 to -180 range vs New York Mets @ 6:05 ET - Normally in a spot like this I would recommend the run line and go with a 10* Top and not lay any juice. However, the reason for the big juice here is that if a game is rain-shortened but official (goes at least 5 innings but not the full 9 innings) the money line wagers are PAID but run line plays are UNPAID. They have moved the start time of this game from 1:05 ET to 6:05 ET because of Tropical Storm Ophelia. This looks like the best time to get this game in and I am involved again because I want to keep riding the red hot Phillies. They have won 4 in a row and have been hot for an extended stretch in home games while the Mets continue to wrap up on a very disappointing season and they can not wait for it to be over really. I know Jose Butto has some surprising numbers in his limited action at the MLB level but this will come to a screeching halt soon enough. The majority of his work was at AAA level this season and he went 3-7 with a 5.93 ERA there. As for Christopher Sanchez, he is much better pitcher than his record shows and has a 3.55 ERA this season and prior to B2B tougher starts versus Braves, he allowed a total of only 7 earned runs in his last 4 home starts. The Mets most definitely are NOT the Braves! Keep in mind a 10* at -126 juice is the same risk amount as a 7* at a -180 price. This is worth a 7* play in my book and I expect another Phillies winner for us here! 7* PHILADELPHIA -170 to -180

MLB Saturday 7* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -175 to -185 range vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - Normally in a spot like this I would recommend the run line and go with a 10* Top and not lay any juice. However, the reason for the big juice here is that if a game is rain-shortened but official (goes at least 5 innings but not the full 9 innings) the money line wagers are PAID but run line plays are UNPAID. Tropical Storm Ophelia is affecting weather on the East Coast and what will first be showers will start to turn toward a heavier rain. Looks like Phillies should be able to get this one in and I like red hot Philly here with Wheeler facing his former team. Wheeler is a rock solid hurler and will outduel Quintana here. The Phillies have that winning feeling right now and just continue to find a way day in and day out and I want to keep riding them here as they have all the edges in this match-up again. More of a line than I normally lay but it is for the reason noted above. Keep in mind a 10* at -126 juice is the same risk amount as a 7* at a -180 price. This is worth a 7* play in my book and I expect another Phillies winner for us here! 7* PHILADELPHIA -175 to -185

MLB Friday 8* Philadelphia Phillies -155 vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - Similar to yesterday, going with an 8* instead of a 10* because prefer the money line option over the risk of a run line option here. It paid off yesterday as the Phillies won by a single run. Though I expect a blowout here I want to again be protected if Philly wins by a slim margin. Walker is facing his former team and has fared well against them this season. Megill will struggle here on the road against a Phillies team that is getting guys hot at the right time as they build up for another post-season run. They have had the homer flying and I expect it to continue here as they get this one in before the tropical storm starts bringing rain to the area. 8* PHILADELPHIA -155

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - This line has dropped in part because of the wind blowing in because of the approaching tropical storm. However, just because the wind is blowing in does not mean guys can't make contact and spray the ball all over the field. Both these pitchers have had tough seasons. Pfaadt for the Diamonbacks and Weaver for the multiple teams he has been with this season. Both guys have struggled. The Yankees got their sticks going a bit and remember they just faced some tough Toronto pitching. No, the Yankees lineup is not great this season but this is a low total and the Yanks do tend to hit better at home and had been scoring a bit prior to the first couple games of the Jays series. The Diamondbacks have been hot and scoring runs and they should stay hot here. The Dbacks bullpen has not been great this season and Pfaadt unlikely to go deep. Take advantage of the low total here and look for 9 or more as this is a low total when it is not Cole vs Gallen. This total just too low. 10* OVER 8 in New York Yankees

MLB Thursday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs New York Mets @ 7:15 ET - The price on this one is a little on the high side but I do not want to get burned if the Phillies win this game by only 1 run so I am going with money line here instead of run line though I am anticipating a blowout home win. The Phillies are 28-20 against lefties and the Mets are 15-32 against lefties this season and this is a battle of southpaws. Overall, no matter the pitchers, the Phillies are the overall stronger club plus they are at home here. The Mets are 32-45 on the road this season and struggling again away from home just like last season. The Phillies are 39-24 against teams with a losing record this season. The Mets are 42-51 against teams with a winning record this season. So the situation strongly favors the Phillies and then the pitching does as well. Ranger Suarez had a 2.45 ERA last month and has a 3.31 ERA this month. He has a 3.18 ERA in night games this season. David Peterson is 1-6 with a 7.35 ERA in road games this season. Opponents are hitting .327 against him away from home. Peterson has been piling up strikeouts of late but is still getting hit hard recently as opponents are hitting .323 against him this month. The Phillies also have the bullpen edge here! 8* PHILADELPHIA -160

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:45 ET - This total moving to a 9 in some spots with good reason. The Brewers finally got their bats going again yesterday and will have no trouble with the offerings of Thompson here. The Cardinals do tend to hit better at home and should hammer Houser in this one. Note that Houser is 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA in night games this season. Opponents are hitting over .300 against him in road games and in night games this year. Thomson has a 4.75 ERA in night games this season and opponents hitting .283 against him under the lights. He is facing a Milwaukee team that has won 9 of 14 and scored an average of 7 runs in those 9 victories. The Cardinals 9 of last 13 home games have totaled at least 9 runs and more of the same expected here. 10* OVER 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 or 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - This total has dropped and we have solid value on the over. Yes, Steele has great numbers on the season but he actually got hit at a .286 clip last month and a .287 clip the month before that. Hitter friendly weather for this one at Wrigley Field even though the southerly wind will be rather light. Pirates can score some runs here and they will need it because Keller has a 5.35 ERA since the All Star break and has been hit at a .291 clip since then. He also has been great at home but has a 5.15 ERA on the road this season. Cubs rolled 14-1 yesterday and each of their last 7 games have totaled at least 8 runs and that is the current number on this total. Pirates actually had been playing decent on the road and averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this solid 6-3 stretch before getting rocked yesterday so they will bounce back here but Cubs are going to continue mashing the ball. 10* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Chicago Cubs 

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -105 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - Both pitchers off strong starts against the respective lineups they most recently faced. The Phillies proved last night they can play the home run game too and truly they are a lineup loaded with home run power. That said, they are getting 1.5 runs here at a fantastic price and it is too good to pass up when you consider the pitching of Christopher Sanchez as well. Yes, Spencer Strider is off a a great start versus Philly but he allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings in his two starts prior to that so he could relapse here. He has had another huge season but, unlike Sanchez, he is not flying under the radar. The thing is, because Sanchez does not have a good record and missed some of this season, he is very undervalued. Not only off solid outings of late, he also has a minuscule 1.29 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. On the road here, here and the homer-happy Phillies will keep this one interesting and might even get another big win tonight. If they lose look for it to be decided by just 1 run. A lot of value here with this run line. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Jose Urena piled up some strikeouts in his last start but also allowed 3 homers and he is 0-6 with an 8.48 ERA this season. As for Jackson Rutledge, he just got rocked in his MLB debut and he struggled some at the AAA level of the minors so this was not a huge surprise. These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball too. The White Sox won 6 to 1 here in DC yesterday but, prior to this, 10 of last 13 Nationals home games have totaled at least 10 runs. As for Chicago, they have scored 6 runs in 4 of last 6 road games. Also, prior to the 6-1 win yesterday the White Sox had allowed 8 runs per game last 6 games overall. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +100 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - This one is all about the line value. The Braves took 3 of 4 from the Phillies in Philly and have the best record in baseball this season. However, Philadelphia out for revenge here and they are the defending NL Champions and they have a decided pitching edge here. The fact is the Braves, other than that series win at Philly, have lost 7 of their other 10 recent games as they just got swept at Miami. Atlanta is not exactly on fire at the moment and the Marlins were not just squeaking by in those games. The Marlins hammered them to the tune of a 36 to 13 aggregate score. To say the last, the Braves bullpen is not exactly in great shape right now and they send Kyle Wright to the mound so that might need plenty of pen in this one. Wright has struggled overall in his limited action this season and that includes getting pounded by the Phillies in his most recent start. Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies here and he also struggled against the Braves in a recent outing but bad starts have been rare for him! Wheeler is having a solid season. Not stellar like last season but Wheeler has been solid and he dominated the Braves when he faced them here in Atlanta earlier this season. He and the Phillies are out for revenge here and they are catching the slumping Braves at the right time to get revenge. Take advantage of the low price. 10* PHILADELPHIA +100

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 2:15 ET - The Phillies recently faced Dakota Hudson and gave him trouble. A lot of teams have given him trouble of late. Hudson has allowed 5 or more earned runs now in 3 of his last 4 starts. In that 4 start stretch he has walked 13 and struck out 5. Like Hudson, Taijuan Walker has struggled a bit lately. However, unlike Hudson, Walker has much better BB/SO numbers recently! In his last 4 starts Walker has 10 walks and 22 strikeouts. You can see that Walker, despite giving up more earned runs that usual, has actually been pitching better of late in comparison with Hudson. Digging beyond the expected starting pitchers here (as usual my play is action), the Phillies are 14 games over .500 this season while St Louis is 18 games under .500 on the season. St Louis actually has been worse at home than on the road this season plus the Cards are 41-53 against teams with a winning record this season. Philly is 38-21 against teams with a losing record this season. The Cardinals, after getting drilled again 6-1 yesterday, have lost all 5 games with the Phillies this season and you have to go back to the 2017 season for the last time they won the season series with them. With a reasonable money line on the better team that is a club that is also working hard to clinch a ticket to the post-season again, I will not hesitate to lay the price on the defending NL Champs here again just like yesterday! 10* PHILADELPHIA -125

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ 7:15 ET - The Phillies recently faced Miles Mikolas and gave him trouble. A lot of teams have given him trouble of late. Mikolas has allowed 27 earned runs in 35 innings over his last 6 starts. He has allowed 10 homers in his last 7 starts. Like Mikolas, Ranger Suarez has a sub-par W-L record this season. However, unlike Mikolas, Suarez has actually been pitching better of late. Suarez has allowed an average of 2 earned over his last 5 starts and those starts have seen him average 6 innings per start. The Phillies southpaw is flying under the radar a bit right now yet he actually has been quite solid including 28 strikeouts over his last 22 innings. The Phillies are 13 games over .500 this season while St Louis is 17 games under .500 on the season. St Louis actually has been worse at home than on the road this season plus the Cards are 41-52 against teams with a winning record this season. Philly is 37-21 against teams with a losing record this season. St Louis is 38-60 in night games this season. The Cardinals have lost all 4 games with the Phillies this season and you have to go back to the 2017 season for the last time they won the season series with them. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - Greinke has been working out of the bullpen recently for the Royals as well and honestly whether he starts here or is a bulk reliever out of the bullpen or whatever the case may be, I look for the Royals league-worst bullpen to get pounded here. KC has a very bad bullpen and the Astros will be scoring runs early and often in this one. The key for the Royals though is they have been hitting better overall for quite a stretch long-term now plus they do tend to hit better when at home. So when you factor that in, we should both teams scoring well in this one. I am not too concerned with the Astros starter here but will mention that it is expected to be Cristian Javier. Not only does he have a 5.51 ERA on the road this season, he has a 5.58 ERA overall since the all star break. I am expecting at least a dozen runs in this one given all of the above and certainly at least getting to double digits should not be a problem. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:10 ET - The first game in this series was 5-5 after 5 innings and they had to go all the way to the 10th inning with no scoring before finally Cincy scored a run and ended up getting the win. That was Tuesday and then yesterday's game was 4-3 after 4 innings but, again a long scoreless lull and no one scored the rest of the way and the Reds won another one-run game. Two of the best bullpens in baseball, right? Actually NO and that is why I really like the over in this early day game Thursday. The Reds are a little better than the Tigers in terms of bullpen ERA but still these two teams are both middle of the pack at best really when it comes to relievers. Derek Law expected to be an opener here for the Reds but Ben Lively likely to get most of the bulk work after returning from covid. Neither guy scares me at all and the Tigers will score well here. The Reds also should pound away. I know Reese Olson has had a couple strong outings but that was against a bad White Sox team and also does not change the fact he has struggled often this season. In fact, from late July to late August, Olson allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of 6 starts. He struggles again here the way I see it and both teams score big and we take advantage of the line move from 9 down to an 8.5 on this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 12:35 ET - As written in Monday's write-up involving this series, this one relates to a late season strategy that has worked quite well for me through the years. Here you have a match-up featuring two teams whose seasons are over. Yes I know that mathematically each one of these teams is still alive in the wild card race but realistically neither team is. The Nationals are dead last in the NL East and the Pirates are in 4th place in the NL Central and both clubs are looking to build toward next season. When there is no playoff pressure, hitters can really relax at the plate. So here you have a situation of relaxed batting lineups. We also have a Pirates bullpen that ranks only in the middle of the pack this season while the Nationals bullpen is dead last in the National League based on team ERA. That said, we should see runs throughout this one. The Pirates are likely starting Mitch Keller here and he is 2-5 with a 6.09 ERA in his last ten starts as he is really struggling. The Nationals are expected to start Josiah Gray and he is having a rough season and is slumping again of late. His only start this month did not go well and he went 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA in his 5 starts in the month of August. We have a rather low total to work with here (8.5 as of gameday morning) and the Pirates have averaged scoring a respectable 4.5 runs per game last 15 games. Pittsburgh has allowed 6 runs per game in last 8 home games. The Nationals have seen 8 of last 11 games total double digits in runs. I am expecting this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -105 vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - Getting the Phillies at a pick'em price on the run line here is a bargain price. The Braves have taken 2 of 3 so far in this series but both their wins were in extra innings. Strider is the big name pitcher here but he is off a rough outing and has been dealing with an illness. He is over-priced here. He could struggle again just like the prior start and may not be fully recovered from his illness that pushed this start back. Strider is the big name guy so the markets are all over the Braves here. The Phillies, however, continue to fly under the radar compared to the Braves. This Phillies team is a strong team and was in the World Series last year. Sanchez is flying under the radar too because his record is not that impressive. This guy hardly ever gives up much on the mound and Atlanta has no significant experience against him. He is likely to be a pleasant surprise for Philadelphia here as a result. The Braves have coughed up the lead in the bottom of the 9th of both of their wins in this series. There is a lot of value with the +1.5 runs here. The Phillies, at +1.5, would be 8-2 (80%) last 10 games and one of those two losses was in extra innings by two runs. Philadelphia had won 17 of 26 at home before yesterday's extra innings loss and I look for Strider to struggle again while Sanchez surprises. Sanchez has quietly allowed 2 or less earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -105

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:10 ET - Keuchel has seen his better years. Yes, he is off a good start but that was preceded by a rough one. Overall, he has struggled with command at times, his strikeouts are down, and he could struggle again here after a rare decent start. I will challenge him to make good B2B starts. As for the Rays Taj Bradley, he is off a start in which he allowed 3 homers and that was at home. In his last two road starts Bradley has walked 9 in 8 and 1/3 innings! He has allowed 12 homers in his last 8 starts and this total is being held at a 9 for a reason. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the bats come back to life in this early afternoon game Wednesday. Very pleasant weather expected for this one. Rays had won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs last 10 games prior to yesterday's 3-2 loss. The Twins are 7-4 last 11 games and have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game during this stretch. 10* OVER 9 in Minnesota

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians @ 9:45 ET - Going to test the 6-0 run here as this total is an 8 or 8.5 so we need 9 runs to be a winner and each of the Giants last 6 games have all totaled at least 9 runs!  San Francisco has scored 6.5 runs per game during this stretch but also conceded 6 runs per game during this stretch of 6 games. The Giants are feeling it right now with 4 straight wins and should hit Quantrill hard here but don't be surprised if Manaea gives up big runs here as well. Cleveland has lost 3 straight but this was on the heels of a 7-5 stretch in which they scored an average of 5 runs per game. They will take advantage of an inconsistent Manaea making his first start in 4 months. His bulk relief has not been great and this is essentially a bullpen game and Alex Wood and Jakob Junis could see bulk relief time as well and they both have had rough patches recently as well. So no matter the starters here I like the over and I will note that Quantrill has been good since his return but he faced a downtrodden Angels team in most recent start. The start previous to that was solid also except he had more walks than strikeouts there. So I am not sold on him just yet as he is working his way back into top form after having not started since early July and having endured a number of rough stretches this season. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in San Francisco

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:40 ET - Assad coming off a tough start in which he did not register a single strikeout. He struggled against the Rockies in his lone appearance against them last season and now he makes his first ever start at Coors Field. This is a tough spot for Assad and weather conditions look good for this one in Denver and the ball carries so well here. The Rockies counter with Flexen and he had some good starts (mildly good at least) once he settled in a bit after coming over from Seattle in the summer but now the struggles are quickly resuming. Flexen is having a rough September with both starts, including one at home, being very tough. He has been rocked for much of this season and most of his outings in a Rockies uniform as well and Coors Field is the least pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors. That said, the runs keep piling up here as both starters get rocked plus the Rockies bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors. Asking for a dozen or more runs here is not asking too much! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 6:35 ET - This one relates to a late season strategy that has worked quite well for me through the years. Here you have a match-up featuring two teams whose seasons are over. Yes I know that mathematically each one of these teams is still alive in the wild card race but realistically neither team is. The Nationals are dead last in the NL East and the Pirates are in 4th place in the NL Central and both clubs are looking to build toward next season. When there is no playoff pressure, hitters can really relax at the plate. So here you have a situation of relaxed batting lineups. We also have a Pirates bullpen that ranks only in the middle of the pack this season while the Nationals bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. That said, we should see runs throughout this one. The Pirates have not named a starting pitcher yet and I am not concerned who starts. The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin and he is having another rough season and is slumping again of late. We have a rather low total to work with here (8.5 as of gameday morning) and the Pirates have averaged scoring a respectable 4.5 runs per game last dozen games. Pittsburgh has allowed 6.6 runs per game in last 5 home games. The Nationals have seen 7 of last 8 games total double digits in runs. I am expecting this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - Yes it is an evening game in San Francisco but an early start time of 5:10 since it is the Sunday night game so there will still be a decent wind blowing out and temperatures will not be too chilly at gametime for this one. I like the fact that Winn is not getting many strikeouts for the Giants. Yes he has respectable numbers so far but he has been far from dominant as indicated by the strikeout rate and his minor league ERA numbers were not overly impressive so this is not surprising. The Rockies will do some damage here. At the same time, Lambert is in line to get rocked for Colorado. He has been hit rather hard in 5 of last 7 starts and just allowed 4 earned runs in most recent outing. In night games this season, Lambert has gone 2-5 with a 5.82 ERA. The Rockies have seen 7 of last 9 games total at least 10 runs and their last 5 games have been on the current road trip so this is not just a Coors Field thing. Those games averaged 12.7 runs per game! We only need 9 to be a winner here. The Giants have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 home games and they are starting to hit better recently after a tough patch as SF has now scored 8 or more runs in 3 of last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +110 vs Miami Marlins @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies let me down yesterday - the lone loss on the day - as they blew a 2-run lead and lost 3-2. No hesitation in coming right back with them here off a tight loss like that. This is particularly true when they have a huge pitching edge. Regardless of starters, I will go with Phillies here but definitely I like the projected starting pitching match-up here. The Phillies are going with Aaron Nola and he is off a rare bad start after he had been enjoying a dominating stretch. Nola is known for pitching great at home and 9 of his last 11 starts have been fantastic. In those 9 starts Nola has allowed a total of only 12 earned runs! Yes that is an average of a measly 1.3 runs per start and I expect him to dominate here. As for the Marlins, they are going with Johnny Cueto here and he has not been impressive at all. He is 1-3 with a 5.54 ERA and he has allowed 9 homers in his last 5 starts and those have spanned 27 innings. So count on him to give up a couple homers here against a power-hitting Phillies lineup in this one. Look for Phillies to win in a rout so we will grab the plus money on the run line in this one. Amazingly, 20 of the last 21 wins for Philly have been by 2+ runs. As for the Marlins, 22 of last 26 losses have been by a multi-run margin. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +110

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:07 ET - The Royals have been scoring well for quite an extended stretch now but they still are one of the worst teams in the league because of their pitching. Their bullpen ERA ranks among the worst in the league and here they are essentially going with a bullpen game because Collin Snyder is projected to get the start and he has been a bullpen guy at the MLB level. The Royals just don't have many pitching options right now and even Zack Greinke struggled when used out of the bullpen. The good news for KC though is that projected Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has been struggling. He has given up 13 runs (9 earned) on 19 hits in 15 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts. Kikuchi also walked 4 in less than 5 innings in his most recent start. The Royals have scored an average of 7.3 runs in last 6 games. The Blue Jays have a solid lineup and are 14 games over .500 on the season thanks in part to solid run-scoring capabilities. The Jays enter this one off a 5-2 loss at Oakland Wednesday but got some much needed rest yesterday after the long travel back from the west coast and that low-scoring loss was preceded by the Jays scoring 7.2 runs per game last 10 games. 10* OVER 9 in Toronto

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -140 vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies are 41-26 at home this season and remember they finished up last season on a red hot run at home that carried all the way through the post-season as well. Philadelphia is a tough team to face here and Sanchez has been better than his record shows. Also, though he is off a bit of a shaky outing, Sanchez had previously been very strong in 9 of his last 10 starts. Other than the one outlier he had allowed a total of only 14 earned runs in the other 9 starts. As for the Marlins, they have been making a solid push here as the season has gone on but they are still 4 games below .500 in road games and 10 games below .500 against teams with a winning record on the season. Perez has struggled in 3 of his last 4 road starts and actually allowed multiple homers in all 3 of those rougher outings. Philly is a solid home favorite here with good reason! 10* PHILADELPHIA -140

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:20 ET - The Cardinals won 11-6 yesterday and it was no fluke as they won the day before 10-6. These guys are scoring runs like crazy so far in this series but of course the Braves have been the best lineup in baseball this season and their high-scoring ways have continued. They will take things to a higher gear tonight considering that Wainwright is on the mound for the Cardinals. I know recently he has had a couple of better starts but even in both of those he had more walks than strikeouts. He won't be fooling these Braves hitters tonight and he has not fooled much of anyone for much of this season either. Wainwright has a 3-10 record and an 8.10 ERA on the season. I know Max Fried has good numbers for the Braves and he is a rock solid pitcher. However, before his strong start to begin September, Fried had given up 29 hits in less than 22 innings of work over his 4 prior starts. He has been very hittable and now faces a red hot St Louis lineup. That is why, even though Fried has great numbers this season, this total is set so high. Don't let the big number scare you away. This one likely will get into the same range the prior two games in this series did though this time I expect it will be the Braves doing plenty of damage as they salvage a game in this series. 10* OVER 10 in Atlanta

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles @ 9:38 ET - The Orioles should pound Patrick Sandoval here. The Angels left-hander has struggled badly in 3 of his last 4 starts. Also, the over is a PERFECT 4-0 in Sandoval's last 4 starts against AL foes and all 4 of those games totaled at least 11 runs and actually averaged 15 runs! Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Orioles here and, like Sandoval, he has struggled in 3 of his last 4 starts! Also, 4 of his last 5 starts have resulted in overs and all 4 of them totaled double digits in runs. This one should too. I know the Angels lineup is not what it once was but they still have been scrappy recently and they showed that again yesterday. LA games have totaled at least 9 runs in 9 of last 11 and all we need here is 9 to be a winner with this total set at 8.5 runs. The Angels bullpen has been struggling and the Orioles have won 13 of 17 games thanks in large part to red hot production at the plate. Baltimore has scored an average of 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. Simply put, this total is too low. 10* OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels 

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - Another wild one yesterday between these clubs as the runs were piling up and I expect more of the same today on Wednesday. The White Sox have seen 7 of last 8 road games total at least a dozen runs and the only one that did not actually totaled 9 runs! We'll see big runs again here, especially when you consider that 14 of 20 Royals games have totaled double digits in runs including 5 in a row. KC has averaged scoring 6 runs in those games and they stay hot the plate here Wednesday! These are also two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA this season! In terms of the starting pitchers here - and I do like this over regardless of the starters based on all of the above - note that both are likely to get rocked here. Touki Toussaint walks about 1 batter per inning on the road and he is coming off an August in which he allowed 6 homers in 5 starts! Of course walks and homers are never a good combo for pitchers. The Chicago right-hander is 2-7 this season and his counterpart here, Jordan Lyles has an equally low winning percentage this season. Lyles is 4-15 this season but he is coming off a rare good start. That is actually good news for us because Lyles threw a season-high 114 pitches. Note that every time this season Lyles has thrown at least 100 pitches he has given up at least 4 runs in his next start and been pounded in most of them. In those 5 starts, that followed the heavy pitch counts, he has allowed 26 earned runs - an average of 5 per start and NEVER less than 4. All signs point to another high-scoring game here between these divisional foes. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Rockies Kyle Freeland is 5-14 with a 5.18 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt is 1-7 with a 6.21 ERA this season. Pfaadt has particularly struggled at home where he has a 7.30 ERA and opponents are hitting .320 against him in this, his rookie, season! He just got roughed up at LA by the Dodgers and now he is back home where he has been hit hard in 6 of his 8 starts this season. Unlike most Rockies pitchers, Freeland has been a little worse on the road than at home in hitter-friendly Coors Field this season. He is 1-9 with a 5.32 ERA this season on the road and opponents are hitting .306 against him away from home. Freeland is 1-4 with a 6.45 ERA since the All-Star break and gave up 11 homers in 6 starts last month. No sign that things are getting any better for the southpaw and Arizona has average 5.4 runs per game last 7 home games. Prior to yesterday's 4-2 Dbacks win, 8 of the 10 meetings between these clubs had totaled at least 9 runs and 7 of the 8 that did actually reached double digits. All signs point to the fact this one will as well. Note that the Rockies are dead last in team bullpen ERA this season in the NL and that, among NL teams the Diamonbacks are only two spots above bottom-dwelling Colorado. We'll see runs here! 10* OVER 9 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:40 ET - Dylan Cease has a 5.37 ERA in road games this season a 5.42 ERA on the road. Cease is coming off an August in which he compiled an 8.07 ERA in his 6 starts. Brady Singer enters this one off B2B very rough start for the Royals. The Kansas City right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs on 18 hits in less than 8 innings of work over his past two starts. Singer has a 5.15 ERA on the season and the White Sox have seen 6 of last 7 road games total at least a dozen runs and the only one that did not actually totaled 9 runs! We'll see runs here, especially when you consider that 13 of 19 Royals games have totaled double digits in runs in including 4 in a row. KC has averaged scoring 6 runs in those games and they stay hot the plate here Tuesday! These are also two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA this season! 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles @ 9:38 ET - The Angels Kenny Rosenberg has very little MLB activity in his career but has a 1.75 WHIP in his 5 appearances (1 career start). The Angels pitching is going nowhere fast and they recently did an unloading of veteran players. This team is wrapping up for this season but they can still score runs but also give them up in bunches too. The Angels should hit well tonight as the Orioles Grayson Rodriguez got destroyed by the Angels earlier this season. Also, he has been pitching better overall of late but still has a 5.03 ERA this season and the Angels could get to him again here. Of course the Orioles are a huge favorite here for a reason and they will pound Rosenberg and a bullpen that has a 4.76 ERA and ranks as one of the worst in the majors. 5 of last 6 Angels games have totaled double digits and those games averaged 15 runs per game! 7 of last 9 Baltimore games have totaled at least 9 runs and that is the total on this game. The Orioles have averaged 6.4 runs per game last 15 games - an 11-4 stretch for them and I am projecting a high-scoring battle here. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels

MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ San Diego Padres @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies are a small dog here because they are on the road and because the Padres are still fighting for a playoff spot. That makes this a great value spot on Philly because they are 8-4 last 12 games and 16-10 last 26 while Padres are 10-17 last 27 games. San Diego does enter this game having won 3 straight but are actually 0-7 this season when they enter a game on a 3-game winning streak! The Padres have Rich Hill going tonight and he is 7-13 with a 5.26 ERA this season while the Phillies are expected to go with Taijuan Walker and he is 14-5 with a 4.05 ERA this season! Also, Walker has a 3.13 ERA since June 1st while Hill came over to the Padres to start August. He made 5 August appearances (4 starts) and went 0-3 with an 8.50 ERA. I am taking the Phillies here for all the reasons noted above. Also, this tests that above trend that is in a go-against situation for the Padres for 7-0 / 100% this season! 10* PHILADELPHIA +105

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 2:10 ET - I used the over successfully in this match-up Friday and should have come right back with it yesterday but made the mistake of leaving it off my ticket. I will not make the same mistake today! Some of the write-up below includes excerpts from Friday's analytics: The Royals Clarke is essentially an opener and I am not too concerned with who the starting pitchers are in this match-up. Boston's Chris Sale is having a rather rough season and things are not improving of late either as he has been hit rather hard in his last two starts even though he is notching some strikeouts. Also, as bad as the Royals are overall, they do tend to hit better at home and have some big games here. Given the way Sale is going I am suspecting this to be one of those games as well. As for the Red Sox, they should be able to pound a struggling (and one of the league-worst) Royals bullpen. The Boston bullpen, by the way, ranks only in the middle of the pack this season so they have been nothing special. The Royals entered this series off a rare low-scoring home series with the Pirates. Prior to this, 9 of last 12 home games for KC had totaled double digits and now this series has resumed that double digit trending. As for Boston, 14 of last 16 games have totaled double digits in runs and this one should too given the pitching match-up and weather conditions. Looks like a hot afternoon in KC with favorable winds - even if only moderate - for an over. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 1:05 ET - Why is this line a pick'em when the Phillies, who have lost 3 straight, are on the road and Suarez is 2-6 this season while Miley is 7-3 this season? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. Suarez has been rounding back into form and this potent Phillies lineup is a perfect match for pounding the repertoire of pitches that Miley has in his toolbox. This one will be all Philly and they snap the skid here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs @ 6:40 ET - I know Assad has been pitching well recently for the Cubs but the Reds are quite familiar with him having seen him a couple time last season and a couple times this season. They are at home where they tend to hit better and I like the situational factor here. Generally games in Cincinnati are high-scoring and yet both games yesterday totaled 8 or less runs. I like that factor plus the simple fact the teams are off a double-header yesterday. That means they used extra bullpen in that one. Also, Abbott gets the start for Cincinnati here and he has solid numbers on the season but has been struggling since late July. Dating back to his last start in July, Abbott has a WHIP of nearly 2.00 and, when you are allowing 2 baserunners per inning plus pitching in a ballpark like this one, you can quickly get into trouble. Great American Ballpark is known as a hitter-friendly park and it will be warm weather for this one too. Prior to Game 2 of yesterday's double header, the Cubs last 10 road games had seen them score an average of 6 runs per game and you know the Reds are primed to bounce back here at home at the plate as well. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati 

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - The Royals Lyles is having a very rough season and things are not improving of late either. Boston's Paxton has decent season numbers but he has struggled lately. Also, as bad as the Royals are, they do tend to hit better at home and have some big games here. Given the way Paxton is going I am suspecting this to be one of those games as well. As for the Red Sox, they should be able to pound a struggling Lyles and a league-worst Royals bullpen. The Boston bullpen, by the way, ranks only in the middle of the pack this season so they have been nothing special. The Royals are off a rare low-scoring home series with the Pirates. Prior to this, 9 of last 12 home games for KC had totaled double digits and this one should get there too. As for Boston, 12 of last 14 games have totaled double digits in runs and this one should too given the pitching match-up and weather conditions. Looks like a warm night in KC with favorable winds - even if only moderate - for an over. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

MLB Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs -105 @ Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET - Glasnow has been pitching great, as per usual. Quantrill is returning from injury and his final rehabilitation start in AAA went well but he was struggling prior to this in his rehab outings. Lets also not forget that his numbers at the major league level were not good this season either. So the starting pitching edge is definitely with the Rays plus they have the overall team edge. Tampa Bay is 47-21 this season against teams with a losing record. The Guardians are 31-34 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, the Rays are 20-6 this season against teams from the AL Central. Remember that there is a huge divisional edge this season between the East and Central. The run line should be no issue here in a blowout road win. 10* TAMPA BAY -1.5 -105

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees @ 1:10 ET - The Yankees Schmidt has a 5.25 ERA in road games and a 5.14 ERA in day games this season. I know the Tigers are not a great hitting club but Schmidt is also coming off the longest outing of his career. It was the first time he has had an MLB start in which he went more than 6 innings as he made it into the 7th inning. A lot of times when a guy is off a milestone outing like this they take a quick step back in their next start. Couple that with Schmidt's tendency to not be as sharp in day games or on the road and you have a great situation here. As for the Tigers starter here, Manning has a 5.53 ERA in day games this season. Manning is facing a Yankees team whose confidence is growing again with a little winning streak they have going again. Also, if you look at New York's last 8 games, they had won shutout loss but have scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in the other 7 games. The last 9 Tigers games have seen Tigers go 2-7 and allow 8.3 runs per game! Don't be surprised if we see this one get into double digits and we only need 9 to be a winner here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:40 ET - Yes this total is as high as a 13.5 as of early gameday morning. However, of course it is priced this way for a reason. The weather is very hot in Denver Wednesday and so it will be a warm evening plus in this particular warm weather evening the wind is expected to be blowing out to centerfield at a good clip. Thin air of Denver, warm temperatures, wind blowing out at hitter-friendly Coors Field - all of these factors mean the ball is really going to carry. Couple that with a match-up in which there should be plenty of contact from the hitters and you have a great situation for a slugfest. Note that the Braves won last night's game with only 3 runs scored but they did have 15 hits. Yes, it was an easy under and we lost our play with the over by a mile but I will not hesitate to come right back with it here. Darius Vines is a Braves rookie and seems to have a bright future but this is a tough place to start out your career. No matter the starting pitchers here I do expect the lineups to be the story! But Vines should see action even if he does not start and the Braves go with a different opener. As for the Rockies, they are expected to start Kyle Freeland and he has been getting hit hard again this month just like last month and is having an overall tough season. Now he must face a Braves lineup that is the best in the majors and scoring more runs than any other team. Look for the hot hitting to resume tonight and the Rockies, known for coming up big at the plate at home quite often, do bounce back big here as well. 10* OVER the total in Colorado

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -165 vs Los Angeles Angels @ 1:05 ET - The Phillies remain red hot and the Angels remain ice cold. Not only that the Phillies Sanchez is much better than his record shows as you also tell by his low ERA. That is what is keeping this line lower than you might otherwise expect. Yes it is still a bit of a pricey money line in the -165 range but consider that Detmers is 3-10 this season. Also, Los Angeles enters this game having lost 19 of 26 games while Phillies are going for the sweep and have won 15 of last 20 home games! The hosts are just so hot at the plate right now and also hold the bullpen edge in this match-up as well. 10* PHILADELPHIA -165

Tuesday MLB 10* OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:40 ET - This total opened at 12.5 and came down to a 12. Yes, this is still a big number but yesterday's 14-4 game a likely sign of things to come in this series. The Braves are the strongest team in all of baseball with the #1 offense too. The Rockies do score decently at home and have averaged 7.4 runs scored in last 7 games at Coors Field. The problem is that this Rockies team can stop no one and has a weak bullpen also. Colorado has allowed an average of 8 runs per game in their last 9 home games. More of the same expected here. Lambert expected to start for the Rockies and, like most Colorado pitchers, his stats are much uglier at home than on the road. Also, facing the red hot Braves will be his toughest test yet. I also expect Atlanta starter Morton to struggle as his breaking stuff simply will not break as well in the thin air of Colorado as it does in normal ballpark locations. That said, look for plenty of runs from both clubs in this one. Atlanta has scored a crazy average of 6.4 runs per game since the All-Star break. Factoring that in with the Coors Field factor and this has the makings of another slugfest. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles Run Line -1.5 -110 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles Kremer is 12-5 this season while the White Sox Scholtens is 1-6. Also, the Orioles the much better team overall of course and rolled 9-0 yesterday and Scholtens has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Kremer is having a great season and is enjoying a fantastic August after also dominating in July. More of the same here plus a huge bullpen edge. Chicago is 22-51 against teams with a winning record this season. Baltimore has the best record in the AL plus is 19-7 against AL Central teams this year! The Orioles 15 of last 19 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox have seen 17 of last 20 losses by at least a 2-run margin. More of the same expected here. 10* BALTIMORE -1.5 -110

MLB Monday 10* Top Play San Diego Padres Run Line -1.5 -110 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - For those of you that noticed, yes we just faded the downtrodden Cardinals 3 straight days with the much better team, the Phillies. Here we keep the same angle going as we take the Padres over the Cardinals. Note that St Louis is not just losing games, they are getting dominated. Yesterday the Phillies beat them 3-0 but it could have been much worse as Philadelphia outhit the Cards 11 to 2. The Cardinals have now lost 9 of 11 games and have scored just 12 runs in those 9 defeats - an average of 1.3 runs per loss. They are starting Wainwright whom, as you guys know, I have been fading frequently this season with either overs or playing against him. The fact is his career was already declining but when he finally lost long-time batterymate Molina to retirement that really marked the end for Wainwright as well. This season he is now 3-9 with an 8.61 ERA. Conversely, Blake Snell is pitching some of his best baseball of the year right now and, overall is having a huge season. Snell has a 2.73 ERA this season plus he has been simply unreal truly dating all the way back to late-May! Snell has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 17 starts! That is insane! Making it even more amazing he has allowed just 57 hits in those 17 outings! So about 3 to 4 hits per start and just 1 earned run per start and plus the better team and hotter lineup of the Padres taking advantage of facing the Cardinals here. You don't have to twist my arm here! 10* SAN DIEGO -1.5 -110

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - No matter the starting pitchers here, both clubs should score plenty of runs here. I love the fact that a strong Orioles team will be hungry to bounce back off a loss while an overall bad White Sox team is actually playing with confidence right now after back to back wins. In a quick look at the starters, Kopech continues to struggle with command and is getting in trouble by issuing far too many walks. As for Rodriguez, he is off a bit of a shaky outing and he actually has an ERA north of 6.00 in his home starts. He could struggle here as the White Sox have scored 6 runs back to back in victories and, overall, Chicago has averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 8 games. The Sox have a very bad bullpen however and it should be noted that, prior to rare B2B wins, Chicago had allowed an average of 9 runs per game in 8 prior games! As for the Orioles, they had won 7 of 8 before yesterday's loss and have scored an average of 7 runs per game in last 7 victories. They will bounce back at the plate here but the visitors will stay hot at the plate also and this one has all the makings of a game that gets into double digits for total runs. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - The Giants are going with a bullpen game here. Their bullpen has been decent this season but not great of late. Also, the Braves and Giants have faced each other quite a bit recently and that means extra familiarity for the hitters with the bullpen arms they are facing. As for the Braves starter here, Shuster has struggled at the top level of the minors and his MLB numbers are even slightly worse than his AAA numbers. So, the point is, he is likely to get rocked again here and we will take advantage. The Braves have been the best offense in the league this season and are scoring an average of 6.5 runs per game over the past month as they have been red hot. The Giants lineup has struggled this season but facing Shuster will help them and, no matter the pitchers, I like the fact that San Francisco has at least picked things up a bit over the past week and scored an average of 4 runs per game last 7 games. Look for double digits here as this total was set high with good reason so don't let the number scare you away. 10* OVER 9.5 in San Francisco

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 1:35 ET - Drew Rom is a rookie hurler who has not been overly impressive at the minor league level and just got crushed in his MLB debut Monday. Now on Sunday he faces a Phillies team that has been tough and is surging while his Cardinals team is currently struggling and now in last place in their division. Philadelphia is on a 12-5 run in home games and the Cardinals have been trending the other direction and have lost 8 of last 10 games. Value spot to back the home team here on the run line which is available at even money. Aaron Nola is a rock solid starter and is expected to get the call for the Phillies here. Nola has been fantastic at home throughout his career and in almost all his home starts this season he has been quite tough. Look for these long-term trends to continue here. Note also that St Louis is 33-46 versus winning teams. The Phillies are 38-25 at home. 17 of Cardinals last 20 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 14 of last 15 Philly wins have by 2 or more runs. No hesitation in laying the run line here given those numbers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - Dakota Hudson is 5-0 this season and is expected to start for the Cardinals in this one and yet Philadelphia is a -200 favorite on the money line. Must be big mistake, right? No, not at all! First off, about Hudson he actually has a rather pedestrian 3.95 ERA this season and he had a 4.45 ERA last season so is not like this guy is a true dominator. Give Hudson some credit for his record for sure but now he faces a Phillies team that has been tough and is surging while his Cardinals team is currently struggling and now in last place in their division. Philadelphia is on an 11-5 run in home games and the Cardinals have been trending the other direction and have lost 7 of last 9 games. Value spot to back the home team here on the run line which is available at even money. Zack Wheeler is a solid starter and is expected to get the call for the Phillies here. Wheeler has a 2.89 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .203 batting average in these 7 starts. St Louis is 33-45 versus winning teams. The Phillies are 37-25 at home. 16 of Cardinals last 19 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 13 of last 14 Philly wins have by 2 or more runs. No hesitation in laying the run line here given those numbers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5