CFB Championship Game Monday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - Wow! A pair of 14-0 teams matched up for the Championship Game! The Wolverines and Huskies are both 14-0 now this season. The Wolverines have a great defense but I don't see them shutting down this ultra talented Washington offense. At the same time, the defense of Huskies is NOT their strength yet they have stepped up as needed throughout this season including last week against Texas. Here they do it again and get enough stops to let their offense do the rest to get the outright win in my opinion. We will grab the points just in case but I really do not expect to need them. Currently this line as high as a 5 as of very early game day morning which is a huge value. Alabama, who many felt should not have even made the CFB playoffs, should have beaten Michigan last week no questions asked. Conversely, the Huskies beat a Longhorns team quite handily last week that is the same Texas team that beat the Crimson Tide earlier this season. The point is that all of the above means Wolverines a little overvalued here and Huskies a little undervalued. The value is with the dog in this one. The Huskies did play the tougher schedule this season in comparison with Michigan. Grab the points in this one and look for Pennix to have another massive game as his Huskies outduel McCarthy and the Wolverines in this one. The underdog just has too much offense. 10* WASHINGTON (+)

Sugar Bowl Monday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ 8:45 ET - Two great teams of course but I feel the Huskies are under-rated here. A team does not go 13-0 by accident and they had to beat Oregon twice to do that! I respect the Ducks plenty and Oregon is favored by 18 points today on Monday against a fellow 13-0 team, Liberty, which says a lot about how impressive it is that the Huskies beat the Ducks twice this season. Remember too that Washington also has multiple other wins against Top 25 teams as well. The Huskies have a fantastic offensive line and a stellar passing attack and the Horns weakness is pass defense. Look for the Longhorns pass D to be exposed in this game. Texas hammered Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game but their two games before that against ranked foes featured a loss to Oklahoma and a 3-point win (in OT) over Kansas State. Yes, the Horns beat Alabama this season but they benefitted from a 2-0 turnover edge in that one also. Don't get me wrong, Texas is a high-quality team but they are really going to struggle to stop this dynamic Huskies offense. Washington does not have a great defense but they can get enough stops to let the offense dominate games and that is what I expect again here. Texas has revenge here from losing to the Huskies in last year's bowl but the Longhorns actually have a poor ATS history when playing high-quality teams away from home. The win over Alabama, we talked about it above, was a rare exception. Too much value to pass up here with this line in the +4 range as of about 10 hours before kickoff. 10* WASHINGTON (+) 

Rose Bowl Monday 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 5 ET - Of course these are two of the best teams in the nation or they would not be playing in this game. Now let's look at what top teams have done from the respective conferences of these two teams. Note that other top Big Ten teams including Iowa (great defense, horrible offense) are not as balanced as this Alabama team. In the bowls that have already taken place prior to today, Ohio State lost 14 to 3 to an SEC team and Penn State lost 38 to 25 to an SEC team. As for other top SEC teams that played in the bowls, Georgia just rolled 13-0 Florida State 63 to 3. Now, I fully realize there were other variables in those games but the point is that the top SEC teams have certainly looked a lot better than the top Big Ten teams. That is another key as to why I am taking the Crimson Tide over the Wolverines in this one. Another key is coaching in the biggest of games. Harbaugh has lost 6 straight (both SU and ATS) in bowls and playoff games. Now look at Saban's record in semi-final playoff games like this. He is 6-1 SU! We should not even need the points here but we'll go ahead and grab the 2 points available in this one as of about 7 and 1/2 hours before kickoff. 10* ALABAMA (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (-) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ Noon ET in Peach Bowl - This line in the 4 to 4.5 range as of about 2 and 1/2 hours before kickoff. Two very strong 10-2 teams but Ole Miss head coach Kiffin is 2-4 SU and ATS in bowls while Penn State head coach Franklin is 7-4 ATS in bowls. I also like the fact that the Nittany Lions have the much better defense in this match-up. The Nittany Lions road that defense to a 9-3 ATS mark this season and I expect one more cover from them to close the season out. Even though PSU defensive coordinator Manny Diaz left the program earlier this month as he took the head coaching job at Duke, all his systems are in place and this rock solid defense has seemed to rally around the fact they want to win one more for Diaz even though he has departed the program. Yes, the cohesiveness and bond was that strong. Diaz even came back to speak to the players after taking the job at Duke and that is not something you always see. This is a tight-knit group that this PSU defense has and the co-defensive coordinators calling this game will combine with the players for one last super strong game under the Diaz schemes. Next season Tom Allen (formerly with Indiana) takes over as the DC. In this bowl match-up, as strong as the Ole Miss offense is, they are facing one of the toughest defenses in the nation plus the Rebels defense is not strong enough to slow down a determined Lions bunch that can run the ball very well and remember that this passing attack had 27 TDs against only 1 INT all season long. Yes, that includes games against Michigan and Ohio State! 10* PENN STATE (-) 

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (-) vs Memphis Tigers @ 3:30 ET in the Liberty Bowl which is played in Memphis. The current line on this one in the 10 to 10.5 range as of about 5 hours before kickoff. Someone knows something. Yes, this is one of those games. The Tigers have the better record, are playing at home for this game, and yet the line has moved toward Iowa State and the Cyclones are now double digit favorites in this game! Don't be surprised when the road team wins this one huge. This one features a Memphis team that did not have to play UTSA in the regular season and lost their games with SMU and Tulane. The reason I mention that is because those are the only 3 teams in the AAC that, besides the Tigers, had a winning record. So the point is Memphis has not even beaten a team in their conference that ended up with a winning record in conference action. Now the Tigers go outside their conference to face a tough Iowa State team from the Big 12. Yes, Memphis has a solid offense that puts up big numbers but their defense is horrible. The Cyclones will move the ball well on the Tigers throughout this game and the flip side is that Iowa State will be able to get some stops on Memphis. Note that, against unranked teams like the Tigers, the Cyclones have won 5 straight games and allowed only 14 ppg in the last 4 victories in that run. Iowa State is on a 6-3 run and the only 3 losses were to ranked teams and the 6 wins saw them average 34.7 ppg. Against this bad Tigers defense they will score at least that and I just do not see Memphis keeping up as the Cyclones defense is a respectable one to say the least. Also, look at what other AAC teams have done in the bowls. Although USF throttled a disinterested Syracuse team, the other 3 AAC teams that have played in bowls were all beaten badly and struggled to score points. Rice lost 45-21, SMU lost 23-14, and Tulane lost 41-20. Also, NONE of those 3 played teams as tough as Iowa State. Look for the Cyclones to roll here as AAC has proven to be even weaker than advertised! 10* IOWA STATE (-) 

CFB Bowls Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs Northwestern Wildcats @ 7:30 ET - The Utes coach Whittingham is 11-5 SU in bowls! The Wildcats coach Braun is 0-0 SU in bowls! Indeed, this is his first ever bowl and Whittingham has been coaching at Utah as a head coach since 2005. At that time Braun was still PLAYING - not coaching - College Football at Winona State in Minnesota. In fact, Whittingham's coaching career dates all the way back to 1985 when he was a graduate assistant at BYU so he has been coaching since the year Braun was born! I know the Utes had higher hopes this season but they are still coming to Vegas with sights set on winning this bowl. If they did not care about winning it they would not have asked their QB to stay and play in this game even though he will be transferring after this season. By the way, why is he transferring? Is Bryson Barnes disgruntled with the program? No, not at all. He just wants to play and he knows that Cameron Rising, off a huge 2022 season, will be back in 2024 with Utah after missing all of 2023. Barnes does not want to ride the bench behind a star QB like Rising potentially all season long next year. So Barnes will look to go out on top here with the Utes and I like the coaching experience edge and the fact that Whittingham demands the best from his players. The Utes finished 8-4 this season but the 4 losses were all to teams in the top 20 when they faced them. The Wildcats finished the season 7-5 and 3 of their 5 losses were to unranked teams and Northwestern scored an average of only 8 points in those 3 losses to unranked foes! Northwestern faced two ranked teams this season and lost those games by a combined scored of 29 to 7! The Utes also get a boost with the return of RB Micah Bernard for this one. He is a solid running back and he is solid out of the backfield too in the receiving game as well. Utah wants this game and they have won Pac-12 Championships in this stadium in Vegas in recent seasons as well. They are use to playing here, are the stronger team, and we get line value with this one dropping from a 9.5 down to a 6.5 as of about 8 hours before kickoff. 10* UTAH (-)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (-) vs South Florida @ 8 ET - This is the Boca Raton Bowl in Florida so the location certainly favors the Bulls. However, the Orange are the stronger team and this line has dropped from near 6 to near 3 and it is go time for me. Syracuse has an interim coach here but Nunzio Campanile will bring out the best in this team here. I realize the Syracuse QB is out for this one but look for the Orange to have a Wildcat offense in place for this one that utilizes the skills of their skill position players at QB. They should not have a problem here against a Bulls defense whose D is a major weakness. USF has allowed 455 ypg on the season and they played a weaker schedule than the Orange did. Also, Syracuse is going to take advantage of a team that had lost 4 of 6 before closing the season with a win over Charlotte. In those 4 losses, the Bulls allowed at least 49 points in all 4 losses! It is hard to trust a defense like that to stop anyone and I like what I am hearing from the side of the Orange in this one in terms of being motivated for this game. The faves are going to bring an "A game" effort here and they cover the FG along the way! 10* SYRACUSE (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Boise State Broncos (+) vs UCLA Bruins @ 7:30 ET in LA Bowl - Points will be at a premium here with both teams having issues at the QB position entering this one. With defenses likely to rule the day, I feel we have excellent line value here with getting the full +6 points in this one as of about 10 hours before game time. The Broncos finished the season much stronger after their coach was fired and the Bruins did not look strong at all wrapping up this season. UCLA lost 3 of last 4 games and did not score more than 10 points in any of those 3 losses! The Broncos won 4 straight games to close out the season and they scored an average of 39.5 points per game in those 4 victories. I know they are starting a true frosh at QB in this one but Boise State still has a solid overall team and plenty of weapons they will utilize on offense in this one as well. The Broncos being given generous points here and I will not pass up on it! 10* BOISE STATE (+)

CFB Saturday SMU Mustangs (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - This line is a around a 3 and certainly presents as a head-scratcher, right? Think about it. Tulane has won 11 straight AAC games and it all began with the last time these teams met. Tulane smashed SMU 59-24 last season as party of a huge campaign they had. They then won 2 more AAC games and are perfect 8-0 in the conference this season too. So now notice this line is around a field even though the Green Wave are at home, won the last meeting by 35 points, have won 11 conference match-ups in a row, AND (here is the kicker) the Mustangs just lost their starting QB for the season. All of those factors and this line is a -3. This is a trap line if I have ever seen one and the key for me is that, even though Stone is out, Jennings is a solid option at QB. Not only that, the Mustangs do rate a slight edge on defense and a strong edge on offense. Now, with Stone out, one could dispute that latter fact but the odds makers certainly are not! This game is priced this way for a reason! Grab the underdog here as Jennings will have a big game here. He does have some experience and has a lot of talent all around him to work with. I am fading the 11-0 SU run of Tulane but even if they sneak out a win we could still get the cover with having the points on our side. Great spot to fade an 11-0 run and I expect an outright upset. 10* SMU (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Boise State Broncos (-) @ UNLV @ 3 ET - This is another one of those funny line scenarios as UNLV is at home and has the better record yet Boise State is favored by about a field goal in this one. The line is holding around a -2.5 as of about 6 hours before kickoff. I like the fact that Boise State was left for dead not too long ago and then their head coach was fired and they could have just packed it in. Instead these team has shown incredible fortitude and fought their way through the battles and somehow ended up in the MWC Championship Game. Hats off to the Broncos for this performance and I expect their momentum to carry them all the way through this game. Certainly the amazing turnaround at UNLV was impressive this season but they had a couple of tight wins and some losses late in the season and I feel some cracks are starting to show here. Keep in mind, the Rebels have a 10-2 ATS record this season but that was also the case with Oregon and New Mexico State last night and both lost their games SU and ATS. I have Boise State rated better on each side of the ball plus they are used to playing this MWC Champ games while the same can certainly not be said for the UNLV Football program. At this time of the year, I like taking teams playing their best football of the season and that is the case with the Broncos. Solid season for the Rebels but they face a surging team with a lot of dangerous playmaking options on offense in this one. 10* BOISE STATE (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET - This line is up to 15.5 and it is just too much the way I see it. Yes, Texas has revenge and is the better overall team but we saw that last night also with Oregon when they faced Washington and the Huskies ended up winning outright! I am not expecting an outright win here but I am expecting a solid underdog cover. The Cowboys have been tough as underdogs under head coach Mike Gundy and has covered 4 of 5 as a big 12 dog this season and 15 of 21 long-term when installed as a big 12 dog. As for Texas, they have not been great ATS away from home. Remember that, prior to barely covering at Iowa State, the last 3 Longhorns games played away from Austin were all ATS losses. The Cowboys did beat Oklahoma this year. The Horns lost to that same Sooners team. Don't get me wrong though, I am not saying Okla St is better than UT because of something like this. I am just telling you that this is a quality 9-3 team that plays well as an underdog and is well-coached and is getting too many points here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies (+) vs Oregon Ducks Friday at 8 ET - Current line around 10 as of early game day morning. I have tremendous respect for Dan Lanning and the Ducks but feel strongly that they are over-valued here. Kalen DeBoer and the Huskies have some edges in my opinion here and I am expecting a 1-score game as a result. Don't be surprised if Oregon gets their revenge but the win comes by just a FG or TD the way I see it. The big key here is that this is a pair of 2nd year coaches and Lanning is 21-2 with the Ducks against teams not named Washington and DeBoer is 23-2 with the Huskies overall. The key point here is Lanning is 0-2 against DeBoer so far. All the pressure is on him and the Ducks here. I know the Huskies have unbeaten pressure if you will but I feel this is a game in which Oregon has all the pressure to prove they can finally beat Washington again and you know DeBoer and the Huskies have extra confidence from winning the meetings both last season and this season. Also, notice that these teams played the exact same conference schedule expect the Ducks played the Pac-12 worst Buffaloes while the Huskies had to play a top tier Pac-12 team as they faced the Wildcats. Arizona is 10-2 ATS this season also and so is Oregon. Washington did get straight-up wins over both these 10-2 ATS teams and the Huskies are 12-0 SU on the season. Also, consider that the Ducks non-conference schedule included an 81-7 win over an FCS school which certainly padded stats. The Huskies non-conference schedule included, instead of an FCS school in that slot, a Boise State team that is now playing for the Mountain West Championship title tomorrow. The point is that the Huskies are 12-0, played the tougher non-conf schedule, played the tougher conference schedule, have won both meetings that featured these two head coaches, and are getting double digits in points here. This is a lot of line value. Ducks are a great team but this Huskies team is not undefeated by accident. They might lose this game but I expect an epic finish if that is the case. Lanning wants this game bad but, as the line shows, all the pressure is on him here. Lose a 3rd straight to the Huskies (and this one as a double digit fave) and that tarnishes what he has done with this Ducks program so far. This is a pressure game for Oregon. I'll take the big points as the Huskies schedule to end the season was a tough one with 3 straight ranked teams and then rival Washington State so they are better than some of their late season stats would lead you to believe and, keep in mind, they still found a way to win all 4 of those games. These guys are winners. Two very strong teams...I am taking the big points. 10* WASHINGTON (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide (-) @ Auburn Tigers @ 3:30 ET - This line keeps dropping and is now down to a 13 as for about 7 hours before kickoff. The fact is the Crimson Tide are already locked into the SEC title game next week BUT there is no way they will come out flat in this rivalry game. Coach Nick Saban knows that coach Hugh Freeze has led his teams to a few wins over him in SEC action and no one else has won more than one over him. Not only that, Saban knows his team can not afford come out flat here and have an ugly performance and then expect to be at their best against Georgia next week. So the Tide will be well prepared and roll here as they have been rolling for quite some time now after a slow start this season. They are now 7-0 SU in SEC action on the season while the Tigers are 3-4 SU in SEC games and here is a huge key. The 3 wins for Auburn have come against Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. Those 3 teams are a combined 2-21 in SEC action this season and are easily the 3 worst teams in the league. Now the Tigers face one of the leagues best and the Crimson Tide have won 4 straight games each by 14 or more points. This line dropping to 13 make this one particularly attractive. The Tigers off that ugly loss last week which completely deflated their confidence. Auburn got hammered by New Mexico State last week! The Tide will bring their A game and are firing on all cylinders right now and win by a multi-TD margin! Mismatch! 10* ALABAMA (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3 ET - This line is around a 20.5 as of 7 hours before kickoff. As long-time followers know, I do not normally lay big points. However, when the situation calls for it, I have no hesitation. This Colorado team is really bad. They are so weak in the trenches on both sides of the ball. So no matter how much talent you have at the skill positions, you struggle as a team. Now, even more concerning for the Buffaloes here is the most key skill position of them all (QB) is an issue heading into this one as Sanders got hurt in most recent game and may not be able to go here. Even if he is under center for this one, he will not be 100% and will be running for his life most of this game. The Utes come into this one angry off a bad loss at Arizona. Utah has lost 3 of 4 but the other two losses were to Oregon and Washington. Those are two very strong teams of course. Also, they did cover against the Huskies and, after the ugly loss to the Ducks, they responded as they so often do. They thrashed Arizona State 55 to 3! Now, after an ugly loss to the Wildcats, I am sure we will see a response here! The Utes are often so strong in the trenches and that is particularly true off a bad loss. Utah is known for toughening up and pounding teams after they themselves suffer a rare beatdown. Whittingham has coached the Utes for nearly two decades and he is the exact opposite of flashy Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders who is in his first year at Colorado and getting a baptism by fire in the Pac-12. The Buffaloes are 4-7 but could just as easily be 1-10 on the season. They get exposed again by a superior team and the Utes will not let up here. 10* UTAH UTES (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ Noon ET - Michigan has won the last two meetings but this was after many years of domination for Ohio State. The Buckeyes should resume their winning ways in this rivalry this season as this will be the game that the Wolverines being without coach Harbaugh is finally going to come back to bite them. These two teams are quite evenly matched and for me the key angle here is the revenge factor and the coaching factor. It is not often that Ohio State is a dog and, when they are in a range of +3.5 (the line here) to +7.5 it shows you they are playing a quality team but also means the situation is not such a disadvantage that they are a heavy dog. Sure enough the Buckeyes - this includes bowl games - have excelled in this situation of being a dog of more than a FG but less than 8 points. In other words, not a 2-possession line. They have actually gotten the upset on a number of occasions when priced between 3.5 and 7.5 as an underdog but the key is they are a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 times and no this is not ancient data. It is all since the 2014 season. I like the Buckeyes again in this spot as it makes sense this angle works as you have one of the best teams in the nation getting points. I respect Michigan but they have not looked as sharp past two games and again being without Harbaugh will hurt them as they now face a dominant team that has continued to roll here late in the season. Grab the points, 3.5, as of about 4 and 1/2 hours before kick-off. 10* OHIO STATE +

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 7:30 ET - The Red Raiders are catching +14 here as of early game day morning. This is a big rivalry. These schools definitely do like each other. Even though Texas has revenge and should find a way to win this, I feel the line is far too big. The Red Raiders clinched bowl eligibility last week so you might think they would be flat here. On the contrary though, I feel this will allow Texas Tech to play loose and relaxed and confident here and that makes for a dangerous underdog. The Red Raiders would love nothing more than to prevent Texas from getting to the Big 12 Championship. The Longhorns lost to Oklahoma earlier this season so an OU win, Okla St win and Texas loss would leave Horns out of the picture. I am not saying an upset happens here but I am saying all the pressure is on UT. The Horns are 5-1 SU last 6 games but only one of those wins was by more than 10 points. Also, the Red Raiders are 5-2 SU last 7 games and on a 3-game winning streak SU and their first 3 losses this season were by 8 or less points. They only have 1 loss (17 points) by more than a 13-point margin this entire season. Given all these numbers, a 2-touchdown line here is substantial. Grab the big points. 10* TEXAS TECH (+)

CFB Friday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) at Michigan State Spartans @ 7:30 ET in Detroit - This is a neutral site venue but of course if favors the Spartans as the game is at Ford Field in Detroit. However, the fact the Nittany Lions are traveling actually is good news for their backers. Penn State lost on the road at Ohio State (as usual) this season but their other 3 road games have all been wins and by a combined score of 122-41. The Nittany Lions only two losses this season are to the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. They are just not quite at the level of OSU or Michigan just yet but they are close. Michigan State is not and that is why this is a play for me even with the Nittany Lions a 22-point road favorite as of early game day morning. The Spartans are a mess with the in-season coaching change and player departures and player injuries. Yes they snuck by Indiana last week but they lost by a combined 87 to 3 to Ohio State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions are not far from the level of those two teams as I noted above. That said, the average margin of those two Michigan State defeats was 42 points and we only need to win this by about half that. Penn State is going for a New Year's Day bowl so they will still be focused here. With no concerns about a Big Ten Championship they can play loose and relaxed here and I expect their season-long trend of pounding the bad teams (especially away from home) to continue here with a win by at least a 4 TD margin! 10* PENN STATE (-)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - Too many points. This line around 10 or 10.5 as of gameday morning. Yes, it was only Southern Miss whom they most recently faced but the Bulldogs got a couple key guys back and looked like a much better team and rolled to an easy win. They now will have a much tougher match-up with this Ole Miss team here. However, this is a rivalry game and Mississippi State is at home and the points are just too much. I am happy to challenge the Rebels to cover this double digit spread. The fact Ole Miss has a 9-2 SU record and Mississippi State is a horrible 3-8 ATS this season is keeping this rivalry game line higher than it should be. Other than one bad game their last 5, the Bulldogs allowed just 18.5 ppg in the other 4 games. The Rebels have faced some tough road match-ups this season but losses away to Georgia and Alabama and only getting by Auburn by 7 points means we have some value here with the big points. Ole Miss is not exactly sky-high with confidence on the road and they did lose to the Bulldogs last season. Also, the home team is on an 0-8 ATS run in this series but sometimes a simple trend like that gets over-played and over-valued. That seems to be the case here. Too many points and note that Ole Miss, despite two ATS wins this season, has still covered just 6 of the last 32 times they have been a road favorite of less than 16 points. Also, the Bulldogs have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. I know the home team has that 0-8 ATS run but I am happy to put it to the test here...in contrarian fashion...home team it is! Grab the big points. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE (+) 

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Buffalo Bulls @ 7:30 ET - The Bulls started having weekday games on Halloween and then through this month of November. Not only did they lose all 3 SU they also lost all 3 ATS! But now we are not just talking about a short-term streak either. This brings the run for Buffalo to 0-9 ATS in their last 9 weekday games! Indeed, the Bulls are better served to stick to Saturday CFB but, of course, they have no say in the matter as it pertains to their season finale here on Tuesday. That said, I love the points here with Eastern Michigan. The Eagles need one more win for a .500 season and to secure bowl eligibility. Yes the teams they have beaten in the MAC are having tough seasons but the same holds true for Buffalo. Eastern Michigan is 3-2 SU this season against MAC teams that currently have a losing record in conference games on the season. One of those two losses was by just 3 points and here we are getting 5.5 points with the Eagles! Rallying for the win against Akron last week as they prevailed in double-OT, the Eagles have some extra confidence heading into this one. Eastern Michigan is 9-2 ATS in weekday road games when they are an underdog and I expect the Eagles, even if they fall short of the SU win, to get at least the ATS cover. This one in a 9-0 ATS play-against Buffalo situation as noted above and I look for the trend to reach 10 in a row ATS here! This is also a revenge game for the Eagles as they allowed 50 points in a home loss to Buffalo last season. They have not forgotten! It is the only time since 2016 that the Eagles have allowed 50 or more points in a regular season game. Payback here! 10* EASTERN MICHIGAN (+) points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Houston Cougars @ 4 ET - This line is a around a 6 or 6.5 and is offering excellent value on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State just got crushed by Central Florida. This was after their big game with Oklahoma. The Cowboys won that game over the Sooners and they historically struggle ATS after facing OU and particularly it makes sense for them to struggle when they have upset Oklahoma like they just did. Keep in mind, that was a 5th straight win for the Cowboys and they were hot. Now, after a very ugly loss to the Golden Knights, I feel certain that OSU is going to bounce back strong here. The Cowboys are the much stronger team on offense and I know their defense is going to come to play after that ugly loss to UCF. As for the Cougars, they have lost 6 of 9 games. Also, two of the only three wins that Houston has in that action was over two teams that now have a combined 5-15 record this season. The Cougars now are facing an angry OSU team that was 7-2 this season and 5-1 in Big 12 games before the embarrassing loss to UCF! I know we are laying points on the road here which is not my favorite thing to do but really there is a decided edge here with the Cowboys. They have been the stronger team all season long and definitely are the much better team on offense and the motivation factor is huge. The Cougars, by the way, just lost to a Cincinnati team that has been dreadful this season. The Bearcats were 0-6 in Big 12 and having a horrible season. Houston struggles again in this one and the Cowboys should roll by much more than a TD. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE (-)

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 10:30 ET - I know the Cougars have their annual rivalry game on deck with Washington but this week's game versus Colorado is the home finale for Washington State. Not only that, the Buffaloes need 2 more wins for bowl eligibility and you can bet (literally) that there is some extra motivation here for the Cougars to make sure flashy Deion Sanders and Company miss out on bowl season. No one in the Pac-12 liked all the attention showered upon the Buffaloes this season and that is a big part of the reason that Colorado is now 1-6 in conference games this season. Now, granted, the Cougars have also had a dreadful season but they can at least get some measure of satisfaction from this season with a win here. The Cougars also are 9-1 ATS when they are a home favorite by a single digit margin of points and hosting a team that is off at least two straight losses! That system fits the bill here with the Cougars a 4-point favorite in this one and the Buffaloes entering this one having lost 4 straight and also 6 of their last 7 since their "smoke screen" 3-0 start to the season. By the way, the Cougars are 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings with Colorado and also 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they have hosted the Buffaloes. A home finale loss for Colorado is how the Buffs enter this one after their disappointing OT loss last week. Now this is their first B2B road game situation with next week's season finale also on the road. Note that Buffaloes are on a 1-7 ATS run when they are playing the first of B2B road games. They could be flat here too after losing a crucial home game last week. Just like everyone else gunning for the Buffs this season, the Cougars will be highly motivated here despite their disappointing record and I expect a huge home finale win as they take each of the aforementioned perfect ATS runs to 4-0 apiece! 10* WASHINGTON STATE (-) points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 7 ET - Current line is a -3 as of early gameday morning. The last 3 times that the Panthers were at home and on a losing streak of 3 or more games and facing an unranked foe, they have gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS! Also, that streak does not include - Louisville was a ranked opponent - their big home win earlier this season when they snapped a 4-game losing streak by winning big over the Cardinals at home here in Pittsburgh. You can tell by this line that there is more than meets the eye with this match-up. The 6-4 Eagles are a 3-point dog against a 2-8 Panthers team...how can that be? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. The Panthers were done in by turnovers last week against Syracuse at Yankee Stadium but now they are back home where they have been solid in recent games and I am looking for a very strong effort from them in what is their last home game of the season. The Panthers will make it count and they will get revenge for losing the most recent meeting with Boston College by a single point in 2020. Under Pat Narduzzi, that is the only season in the past 5 that the Panthers did not play in a bowl game and now this season is the same but they can at least finish the home portion of their season schedule with a big weeknight win and make the most of this primetime opportunity with the spotlight in College Football only on Pittsburgh tonight as this is the lone game going in CFB. With the Panthers entering this one on a 4-game losing streak, look for the aforementioned "back to winning at home" streak to reach a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS! 10* Pittsburgh - points

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - Both teams are 4-6 on the season and trying to keep bowl hopes alive with each having one game remaining after this one and, of course, needing to get to 6 wins. That said, I like the momentum factor here and feel the Broncos are undervalued. The Huskies are off B2B losses and the Broncos are off B2B wins. So, entering this game, you have one team surging and one fading and plus Northern Illinois was favored in both of those games they just lost, once favored by nearly a TD and then once favored by nearly 10 points. Overall, the Huskies are on an 0-3 ATS run. The Broncos have covered 3 straight and 6 of last 7. Western Michigan is 14-2 ATS the last 16 times they have been a MAC dog of more than 3 points! Last season the Broncos faced the Huskies late in season as well and that 24-21 loss on a Northern Illinois TD with under a minute to go ultimately cost the Broncos a 6-6 season. They would go on to win their two games after that and finish the season 5-7. This season is shaping up for a different finish the way things are going for each of these teams right now. Look for the surging road dog to grab the cash again in this one and truly I expect an outright upset win but will grab the points as added insurance. Currently this line is a 5 as of early gameday morning. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN + points 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ Washington Huskies @ 3:30 ET - The Utes are getting as many as 9 points in this one as of early gameday morning. This is a lot of value here because, even though Utah has a recent history of SU losses to the Huskies, they actually have covered 4 in a row ATS at Washington. Even though the Huskies coach is a newer head coach to the program, Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham has been with the program for two decades! He and the Utes want revenge here as they lost the most recent meeting here SU at Washington. Also, the last two meetings between these teams in Utah were both Huskies SU wins. Whittingham, as per usual, will have his guys ready here and he wants revenge. He would love nothing more than to knock off the unbeaten Huskies here. I know Washington is 9-0 but, other than the tight win over Oregon (which certainly is impressive don't get me wrong), the Huskies have faced a rather weak schedule. Also, their defensive rankings (the important one based on yardage allowed not points) shows this is overall a very weak defense. They are coming off a shootout win versus USC but they are in trouble now against a much tougher defense. This Utes defense is tough and the Utah offense also got a huge boost in morale with the blowout win versus Arizona State last week. That said, this game is going to be a much tighter battle than many are expecting and I would not be surprised to see an upset win here but am happy to grab the security of the generous points on offer for this one! Utah is 14-3 ATS last 17 as a road dog and they also are poised to make it 5 in a row ATS in games at Washington. The Utes are out for revenge here and bring an "A game" effort and I like having the much better defense on my side getting points here! Also, could be windy conditions here for this one which helps the defensive-minded big dog. 10* UTAH (+) points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State (+) vs Michigan @ Noon ET - Line as of early gameday morning is 4.5 and I like the dog plenty in this one! Every year when Penn State is facing Michigan or Ohio State it seems to be a loss. I know the Nittany Lions already lost to the Buckeyes this season (we were on Ohio St there) but this year PSU is likely to take down the Wolverines the way I see it. First off, this game is at Penn State. Secondly, the Wolverines are dealing with a huge mess with the alleged sign-stealing scheme that has coach Harbaugh in hot water. In fact, Harbaugh likely serving a 3-game suspension beginning with this game. I know he was still coaching the team during the week and I know some will look at this and say the Wolverines are going to rally for the coach, etc. But this is different than rallying for an injured player or a coach missing a game due to illness. This is alleged cheating and it is not a good look. How does a team get fired up about that? The way I see this game, Penn State has one of its strongest teams in recent years and though they lost at Ohio State, they actually played the Buckeyes even tougher than the final score shows. This one is different than that game because the Nittany Lions are home for this one plus I don't think Michigan is as strong as Ohio State. Note that the Wolverines have proven to be a bit over-rated by the betting markets as they have only covered 4 of their 9 games this season. The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, have only 2 ATS losses and those were the aforementioned hard-fought loss versus Ohio State followed by, as expected, struggling to get by Indiana the next week after the huge game with the Buckeyes the prior week. So, in my mind, the Nittany Lions are a little under-valued in the marketplace for this game when you look at their ATS results on the season and you know PSU is very hungry for this game. Penn State is tired of always losing the big games with Ohio State and Michigan and they looked more ready than ever (in that loss to the Buckeyes) to put this streak to rest. They battle hard here and have a great shot at the outright upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. 10* PENN STATE (+) points

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) @ UNLV Rebels @ 10:45 ET - UNLV getting a lot of attention here because they have the better record and are at home. However, Wyoming has played the much tougher schedule. Also, the Cowboys are known for being a tough dog. This is part of the reason they are a solid 8-1 ATS when they are an underdog against a team that is playing with revenge. The Rebels are conference foes but these teams have not met the past two seasons but in the most recent meeting UNLV got destroyed right here in Vegas so they are well aware of this and will be looking to give a much better effort. However, the Cowboys have that great ATS record in this spot plus the Rebels are 1-7 ATS when they are at home and off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. So we are testing angles here that are a combined 15-2 ATS and I like the strength of schedule variance here and feel the Rebels get a wake-up call with the known physicality of these Cowboys giving them a reality check here. UNLV is much improved but they will struggle just to defeat (let alone cover against) this tough Cowboys team! 10* WYOMING (+)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles @ 7:30 ET - This line is currently 9.5 or 10 as of early game day morning but don't hesitate to lay the big points here! ULL is off a loss and Southern Miss is off a win and this is a great set up. The Golden Eagles just beat an FBS school for the very first time this season. Southern Miss had opened up the season with a win over an FCS school but this was followed by going 0-7 SU against FBS schools prior to last week's surprising win. The Golden Eagles are just not a very good football team and now they are on the road facing a Ragin' Cajuns team that still needs one more win for bowl eligibility. Not only that, ULL has a tough trip to Troy on deck so they know they want to be sure and lock things up this week and not leave things up to chance for when they face UL Monroe in their regular season finale. ULL also has plenty of motivation here as they lost last season's match-up at Southern Miss despite having a yardage edge of 100 as they were done in by turnovers. Louisiana is now in the 2nd year under coach Desormeaux and I expect continued improvement through the end of the season as the Ragin' Cajuns had gone 34-5 the last 3 seasons before last year's disappointing campaign. Look for a 7-5 regular season finish after last year's 6-7 (including bowl loss). Here UL - Lafayette bounces back off a loss and hammers a Southern Miss team that is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Golden Eagles most recent weekday road game saw them lose 55 to 3 at South Alabama! Southern Mississippi has allowed 53 points per game on the road this season! Louisiana just beat that same S. Ala team 33-20 a few weeks ago as a double digit dog. This is a great situation for the home favorite as you can see and, though I am not normally fond of laying big numbers, the situational value here speaks for itself! 10* UL Lafayette (-)

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan (-) vs Central Michigan @ 7 ET - I love this spot because the line at -3 suggests these teams would be equal on a neutral field. That is what the average bettor sees and the fact is Central Michigan is 5-4 and Western Michigan is 3-6 so how are these teams equal? Major value on the Chippewas here, right? Actually I love this play on the Broncos here and keep in mind that Western Michigan is favored by 3 even though this series has been dominated by the road team in recent years. That also says something here because the odds makers are sharp and they are inviting Chippewas money here. My money is on the same side as the books and, that is, it is on the Broncos here! One final comment before my biggest key here is that this is a big game for each team because it is a rivalry and because each team already beat Eastern Michigan. So the winner of this one wins the "Victory Cannon" for this year in the battle among these trio of MAC teams from Michigan. This game also carries extra importance for the Broncos because they need 3 more wins for bowl eligibility. A bowl may seem out of the question when you are sitting at 3-6 on the campaign but therein lies the biggest key of all here. The Broncos have faced a very tough schedule so far and that is why their record is so bad. They are much better than their record shows. Their 3 MAC losses were to Ohio U, Miami (OH) and Toledo. Those 3 teams are a combined 21-6 this season and are considered the best teams in the MAC. As for Central Michigan, they do not have to face Miami (OH) and their final two games of the season are against Ohio U and Toledo! The point is the Chips have not been battle tested in the MAC like the Broncos have so far this season! Also, the 3 MAC wins that Central Michigan has are against teams with a combined 10-17 season. I respect the Chips and they are well-coached and have a solid QB but the Broncos are a lot better than most realize and that will show up in a big way tonight. 10* WESTERN MICHGAN (-)

CFB Saturday Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 3:30 ET - The current line on this one is as low as 8.5 as of early game day morning. I like the Nittany Lions to roll here. You might remember we took the over in their game last week because they were off the hard fought loss to the Buckeyes the week before. Sure enough the defense was worn out and they had a bad game against Indiana as I predicted. You can bet (literally) that they are going to now "bring it" in this tune-up game at Maryland before the huge game hosting Michigan next week. Had PSU beaten Ohio State and if they, therefore, were coming into this game undefeated on the season then I might feel differently about this spot. However, coming off a loss to the Buckeyes followed by a lackluster defense effort against the Hoosiers, I am sure the Nittany Lions are going to bring their A Game in this one. That is bad news for a Terrapins team that has lost 3 straight games both SU and ATS! By the way, the Nittany Lions are on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when they are a road favorite of more than 6 points against a team that is coming off B2B SU/ATS losses. This trend makes perfect sense because if PSU is favored big but on the road it means they are facing a team they are expect to dominate. Couple that with the fact that the team is off B2B poor performances and that means that struggling home team likely is slumping! I like playing trends that make good sense and Maryland was actually about a 2 TD favorite in each of those last two games. Look for the trend to reach a perfect 7-0! PENN STATE (-)

CFB Saturday Utah Utes (-) vs Arizona State Devils @ 2 ET - This line is around 10.5 or 11 as of early gameday morning. I know that might seem like a bit much but the Utes hammered ASU last season. They are so strong in the trenches, the Utes are. Utah also punches a team in the mouth. They are physical and tough and this is particularly true when they are angry. This is a perfect set up for a blowout home win. The Utes are off a bad loss to Oregon but that Ducks team is, as usual, super strong this season. That actually ties into this play because everyone talks about the Sun Devils defense but I am not 100% sold on them. The reason is because, other than Washington, have they really played ultra strong teams with ultra potent offenses? Then the Oregon factor is that ASU caught the Huskies off their upset win over the Ducks! That remains the only loss for the Ducks this season. So Arizona State only lost 15 to 7 to Washington but they caught them off the huge upset win! The Sun Devils are facing a different animal this time around as they catch the Utes off the Ducks but, for Utah, it was an embarrassing home loss! That said, this is going to be a blowout win for the road team. I know their numbers on offense are not that great but neither are the numbers of the Sun Devils on that side of the ball. The difference in this game will be that we have the much more physical team and and the stronger defense. This will allow the Utes to pull away as this game goes on! Bryson Barnes was certainly respectable through the air and on the ground in the two games prior to struggling against the Ducks. He will bounce right back with a strong game at QB here against an over-rated Sun Devils defense. This is the Utes final home game of the season other than Thanksgiving weekend so they are sure to make this one count after getting blown out at home last week. UTAH (-)

CFB Friday Colorado State Rams + @ Wyoming Cowboys @ 8 ET - This line is nearly a TD as there are books as high as a 6.5 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that the Cowboys offensive struggles are a concern in a spot like this. The defense of Wyoming is not as much of a strength as it has been in recent seasons. As for the offense, they just do have a lot of firepower. Colorado State is by no means a stronger team than Wyoming but I would call them roughly equal. So then when you factor in that this is a rivalry game plus a double revenge spot for the Rams, the points become very attractive in this spot. Remember the other rivalry game for Colorado State against Colorado earlier this season? The Rams should have won that game outright and certainly gave the Buffaloes all they could handle in that eventual OT loss. This is going to be another game where the Rams have a great shot at the outright upset. Wyoming is 5-3 SU this season but only one win was by a double digit margin and the Cowboys enter this game off B2B losses. As for Colorado State, they had won 3 of 5 games before the loss at Air Force last week and in that 3-2 SU run one of the losses was by just 2 points. The Rams have a solid passing attack and the weather (by Laramie, WY standards) truly will not be too bad for this one. An evening game, the wind will start to lay down and is not expected to be too intense and there is no precipitation expected and temperatures in the 40s. Nice football weather really and the Rams passing attack will be the difference in this one. COLORADO STATE +

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play South Alabama Jaguars + @ Troy Trojans @ 7:30 ET - There are bigger match-ups tonight in Big 12 and ACC so why is my only wager in the SunBelt tonight? Because we go for the best spots not the biggest conferences or biggest games. That said, I love this spot because this is a revenge spot for the Jaguars and they are coming off a loss in this battle last season. These are two of the top teams in this conference but South Alabama does have a pair of conference losses already and is not happy about that and they just lost by double digits at home in a game in which they were favored by double digits! That is an attention-getter to say the least and the angry Jags will be ready here. Conversely, Troy is off a big win over Texas State and I like the hungry revenge-minded team that is coming off a loss here. Also, I know you can't just point to one game comparison for an example but one thing absolutely worth noting here is both these SBC foes faced a Big 12 team this season and the Trojans got hammered 42-13 at Kansas State while the Jaguars won 33-7 at Oklahoma State. There is a reason the home team with the better record is hardly favored here. This line is in the 4 or 4.5 range as of early gameday morning and the play here is the underdog. 10* SOUTH ALABAMA +

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals +5.5 @ Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - We have solid underdog value here. Yes the Falcons have the better record this season but the Cardinals are off B2B ATS covers including a SU win in most recent game. That was an outright win as an underdog and followed a solid 13 to 6 loss to Toledo. The Rockets are by the far the best team in the MAC and Ball State lost to them by only 7 points in a game in which they were a 17 point dog. So the Cardinals are playing some of their best football of the season right now. The Falcons have the better record this season but they have also lost a couple of MAC games by a combined 65 to 7 score and they have not even faced Toledo yet. The Cardinals can compete here and might even spring the outright upset. Their confidence is growing and, though BG is off a big win it came against a very bad Akron team. Upset alert here. 10* BALL STATE +5.5

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Central Michigan (+) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - This line is around 5.5 points and the home dog is the play here. Central Michigan is off an outright loss as a favorite. Now they are hosting a Huskies team that is 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they have faced a conference opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite. I am sure the Chippewas are going to bring a strong effort here and note that Northern Illinois is 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings with Central Michigan. I remember two years ago the Huskies had a strong season but seemed to have the most fortunate season ever in terms of winning close games. Sure enough last season they went 3-9. This season they started the year 1-4 but now suddenly have won 3 straight games. However, the 3 wins included a blowout win over Akron and the Zips are 0-7 SU this season against FBS schools as their only win on the year was against an FCS team. Also, the other win for UNI in this 3-game win streak is they beat Ohio U but in that one they had a 3-0 turnover advantage and actually the Bobcats had more first downs than the Huskies in the 23-13 Ohio U defeat. Then the other win for Northern Illinois was over Eastern Michigan 10 days ago but again they benefited from a 2-0 turnover advantage! The Huskies trailed the Eagles by 10 points entering the 4th quarter of that one and they were a double digit favorite in that game! Simply put, based on all these above factors there is no justification for UNI being this big of a favorite on the road and the Chippewas lost the most recent meeting as a host here after winning 3 straight at home against them. This will be payback for the Chips and, as tough as their season has been this year, look at their home performances. They are a perfect 3-0 at home. Granted the competition in those 3 games was weak but it gives them some confidence and they can give the Huskies all they can handle here and possibly even win the game outright. Those two trends noted above are a combined 14-2 ATS in favor of the home dog here and I like those odds! 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars +20.5 @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - The Cougars could surprise here. UT will be going with a back-up quarterback here because of the Ewers injury. I know the Horns have talented options at the back-up position but that does not mean these guys are going to come in and light things up at the Division 1 CFB level. There is a lack of experience for these guys. At the same time, everyone is saying the Horns can run all over BYU here due to some of the bad rushing defense numbers that the Cougars have. But if you can worry a little less about a team's passing attack and you can focus more on stopping the run, guess what happens usually? I am not saying that the Longhorns will not have success moving the ball here but I am going to challenge them to win this game by 3 touchdowns! I just do not see that happening. BYU is a respectable program and they showed last week again that this team can generate turnovers. They also have a defensive-minded head coach. This actually could be a tricky match-up for Texas as BYU has the experience edge at QB in this one and I feel the Cougars could hang around for a long time in this game just like we saw what Wyoming did in Austin earlier this season. The Longhorns have some big wins this season but they also have allowed an average of 29 points per game the past two games. The defense has regressed some and the offense has taken a brief hit with the Ewers injury and BYU has only truly been blown out in one game this season and they tend to be a consistently solid and competitive team. They will be in this one all the way the way I see it. 10* BYU +20.5

CFB Friday Charlotte 49ers (+) vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 7:30 ET - The 49ers get a little boost of confidence with the win at East Carolina. It was not easy and the Charlotte offense has not been impressive but their defense sure has. That makes the Niners a defensive-minded home dog and I like to grab teams like this when they are getting a field goal or more. In this case the dominant line is 3.5 but there is some 4 out there as well as of about 9 hours before kickoff. Charlotte had one hiccup at SMU when you look at their last 4 games but in the other 3 they allowed an average of only 14 points per game and that included facing an SEC foe when they battle Florida. FAU just got blasted by UTSA and the Owls have gone just 2-4 SU against FBS schools this season. One of those wins for Florida Atlantic was by just 3 points. Statistically FAU has the better offense even though the Owls are not great on that side of the ball. However, defensively it is the 49ers with the edge especially in the yardage allowed category. Also, FAU has blown out Charlotte each of the past two seasons and yet look at the very small number posted on this game! Do not let the small line fool you. Grab the points with the home dog as they get their revenge here. CHARLOTTE (+)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) @ Virginia Tech @ 7:30 ET - Most will back the Hokies here. After all, they are at home and laying only 3 points as of gameday morning. How can this line be set like this when the Orange have lost 3 straight and the Hokies are 2-1 in ACC play plus at home for this game? Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. The Orange have played a murderer's row of competition in their ACC action that preceded their bye week. They will be ready to bounce back here off their bye week while I expect Virginia Tech could come into this one overconfident. The Hokies have won 2 of last 3 games and see the Orange coming into Blacksburg with an 0-3 ACC record! We have seen this movie before! In other words, the overconfident home team is set up well to get upset here and we'll grab the points just in case but Syracuse is coming into this one highly motivated and angry off the recent results and they will get back on track. Note that Virginia Tech is 0-5 ATS as a weekday favorite the last 5 times and this looks like the ideal spot for that streak to NOT be broken and reach 6 in a row. The Hokies have struggled in this situation. Also, taking a look at recent action overall, the road team is already 4-0 SU/ATS in this week's CFB action going 2-0 Tue and 2-0 Wed and I would not be surprised to see that trend continue Thu, at least in this ACC match-up. So often the home point spread adjustment is more of an overall factor and all it actually does is give us even more value with road teams. I know I fell short in my assessments Tue and Wed after another big Saturday but look for the CFB to get right back to winning as the road team value trend continues here given the situation and the factors noted above about this match-up. 10* SYRACUSE +

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Sam Houston State Bearkats (-) vs UTEP Miners @ 8 ET - Well I am not too happy this line is up as high as a 3.5 as of early gameday morning. However, the Bearcats are absolutely the play here and should finally get that solid win they have been longing for all season long. Sam Houston is new to FBS action and they also remain the only FBS school in the nation without a SU victory yet this season. So why are the 0-7 Bearkats favored here? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you here. UTEP is a very bad team. Sam Houston has deserved better. Also, the Bearkats have the better overall defense. I know the Kats offense has struggled this season but they have been better statistically in their last 4 games and this will be their breakthrough game. The Miners are struggling and off a 28-7 loss last week. I went against them then with New Mexico State and I will do the same here! You might think UTEP should bounce back off such an ugly low-scoring loss but the trending actually shows otherwise. The Miners are actually just 1-10 ATS the last 11 times they have been a road dog and coming off a game in which they were held to single digits in scoring! Overall, in weekday road games, even though they won in that role at FIU a few weeks ago, UTEP is still just 2-9 ATS last 11 weekday road games. The Bearkats win big in this one and finally break into the win column! 10* SAM HOUSTON STATE (-)

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) vs Liberty Flames @ 7:30 ET - Something fishy here with this line. It opened even lower than the current number which, as of early gameday morning, is in the 5.5 range. Love the home dog value here. Liberty is undefeated on the season but they just allowed 35 points last week and have played a very weak schedule. This could be the week the Flames finally lose but, even if the Hilltoppers fall short, I expect them to do enough for the ATS win. The key here is that Western Kentucky is only 4-3 on the season but their overall season stats are impacted by a blowout loss to Ohio State. Note that their other two defeats, including one last week at Jacksonville State, have each come by just a field goal. That said, Western Kentucky is a tougher opponent than one might think from just looking at their record and comparing it to Liberty here. In their most recent weekday home game, the Toppers blew out MTSU by a 31-10 count. That brings their current run to 7-0 ATS in weekday home games! Look for that ATS streak to reach 8 in a row here. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ USC Trojans @ 8 ET - Now the Trojans are sure to bounce back, right? After all, they were on a huge roll before getting destroyed by Notre Dame last week. However, there is a key to that hot run they were on! USC played 4 teams that currently have a combined record of 5-20 SU on the season! Surely the Trojans must have faced some tough teams before the Fighting Irish though, right? Nope! They barely hung on to beat Colorado by 7 and the Buffaloes have been proven to be a fraud and have one of the worst defenses in the league and they are very weak in the trenches. The other match-up in the Trojans 6-0 start was a 3-OT win over Arizona and the Wildcats are nothing special this season. So the point is USC had not really been challenged until they faced Notre Dame and we all saw how that went. Now they face a Utah team that is tough in the trenches and is willing to punch teams in the mouth. That is part of the reason the Utes got the wins over Southern Cal last season too. They are a scrappy, hard-nosed, well-coached team and they are catching a full TD in this match-up because QB is the high-profile position everyone pays attention to. Keep in mind, the Utes QB played well last week and we saw the Trojans QB struggle as he finally faced a tougher team and threw 3 interceptions. Based on the line movement in this one, everyone is backing the revenge-minded Trojans and the line is now up to a 7 as of early gameday morning. I love fading the popular choices and will gladly grab the gritty Utes here who just have to play a clean football game without a bunch of turnovers and they could even get the upset here. Either way I certainly like this tough defense at a full +7 and feel the Trojans could be suffering a case of unbeaten letdown this week! 10* UTAH (+)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - The line opened at nearly a TD but is down to the 4.5 range and I love fading movement like this. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 SU and ATS this season while the Buckeyes are also 6-0 SU but do have some ATS losses and I like that factor here as I feel Penn State is a bit over-valued here. Both defenses have been great this season. However, there is a key here in that the Nittany Lions have not faced anyone in terms of a threat offensively. The 3 Big Ten teams they have faced are Illinois, Iowa and Northwestern. All 3 have been horrible on offense. In non-conference action, PSU has also faced some really bad teams offensively. At least Ohio State had to battle a strong Notre Dame team this season plus they did face a respectable offense in non-conference action when they took on Western Kentucky. The point is I feel the Buckeyes have the better defense and are more battle-tested no matter what the stats say. Also, OSU is at home for this one and their QB already engineered a key win over the Fighting Irish in a pressure-packed situation. Conversely, though Lions QB Allard has been great this season, this will be his first real test and he is on the road and his team is facing an opponent that has been dominating them in recent seasons. I look for another solid home win here as Penn State is getting close but they are just not quite there yet and they get exposed here and the Buckeyes pull away to win this game by double digits. 10* OHIO STATE (-)

CFB Friday 10* Temple Owls (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - As of about 7 hours before kickoff the Owls are as much as a 24 point dog here. I waited for the line to jump because of the fact the Owls starting QB may not play again this week. The key difference though is last week it was announced 20 minutes prior to kickoff. This week the Owls have been preparing all week knowing that they may be going with the #2 guy. The back-up will be much better this week and we are getting a truckload of points to work with. Yes, the Mustangs are much better than the Owls but this is a rare standalone national TV game for Temple. This is the only thing going Friday night. In other words, these guys might be approaching this game as their super bowl when you consider how their season is going. Of course that does not mean they have the talent level to win this game but I do expect Temple to really step here and the Owls will keep this game a lot closer than most are expecting. Look for it to be decided by a 2-score margin as the Owls are not as bad as their record shows and will certainly be looking to put forward a strong effort at Lincoln Field in Philly. This is a rare primetime showcase for the Owls and they will make the most of it. SMU is the stronger team by far but the Mustangs also are on a 2-11 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B road conference games! That is not an easy thing to do and this their only such occurrence of that this season and we step in to take advantage! 10* TEMPLE (+)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7 ET - Current line 3.5 at time of posting late morning game day. Both teams are off a bye and both are off losses before their bye week. However, Rice actually had a huge yardage edge against Connecticut and that was a turnover-fueled loss that is helping to give us line value now this week. I say that because these Owls have been moving the ball quite well and getting decent QB play. The same can not be said for Tulsa and they also have some inconsistency issues at QB as well. I just can not trust the Golden Hurricane with the QB play they have been getting and also their 3 wins are against an FCS school and a pair of FBS schools that each have losing records this season. The Owls defense has improved some in recent weeks too. I know the Owls are still searching for their first road win but this looks like a great spot to get it and I definitely do not trust this Tulsa offense. It has not matter who is at QB for them. The Golden Hurricane had a blowout win over a bad Temple team and an FCS school but in their other 4 games against FBS foes this season, they have averaged just 16.5 ppg this season. The Owls also have more consistency in terms of their head coach in his 5th season here while Tulsa under a new coach this season. Grab the road dog here to get it done in this one. If they do fall short look for it to be a field goal at most and the current line on this as of late morning on game day is 3.5 points. 10* RICE (+)

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play New Mexico State Aggies -3 @ UTEP Miners @ 9 ET - I know UTEP is coming off a win but that was against a bad FIU team. Also, the only other Miners win this season was against an FCS team. Since that win over Incarnate Word, UTEP had proceeded to lose 4 straight games and all the losses were by at least a 2 TD margin. The Miners coming off the win over the Panthers last week simply increases the line value here on the Aggies. UTEP might be hungrier off a loss but, off their first win over an FBS team this season, the Miners are lined up well to get hammered here. As for the Aggies, they have won 4 of 6 games and all 4 victories were by a double digit margin. Their defense is at least as good, if not better than the Miners and certainly the Aggies have the edge over this UTEP offense. The NM State offense actually has been better than we've seen in the past and I look for them to pull away for a comfortable road win in this one. Remember their season opening loss to UMass was a turnover driven defeat in which they won the yardage battle by 100 yards. They have responded ever since because one of their only 2 other losses was to a strong Liberty team. The Aggies are the better team and we get line value here because they are on the road. Lay it! 10* New Mexico State -3

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - This line is right around a 7.5 as of mid-morning on gameday and I am laying it! The Gamecocks got hammered at home versus Liberty last week and this followed some fortunate come from behind wins against weaker competition than the Flames. The point is that the Gamecocks are still overrated as they played a weak schedule and are very fortunate to be 5-2 SU on the season. So the Hilltoppers are only 4-2 on the season and on the road here but they are favored by a TD plus the hook? Seems like a headscratcher, right? Do not let the line fool you! Western Kentucky has played the tougher schedule and they are coming off a bye week and they are the overall better team that also has done a great job of creating turnovers this season. Jacksonville State having a 5-2 record this season will insure that the Toppers have the proper focus entering this one and I look for the road team to roll as a result.  Also, this play falls into a 100% system for WKU as they have won 6 in a row ATS when they enter game off of B2B wins SU+ATS and are now facing a team with a winning record. All this makes good sense as it means when the Toppers are rolling and now facing a team with a solid record (which helps keep the line reasonable) they have stayed hot. Look for coach Tyson Helton to again have his team ready to roll here! That streak reaches 7-0 ATS! Lay it! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-)

CFB Saturday CFB 10* UMass Minutemen + points @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 3:30 ET - I know it may seem tough to take one of the worst teams in FBS football against one of the best in the nation but, as of early game day morning the line on this one is as high as 42 points! There are some keys here that have led to big value here in a game in which I feel the Lions will call off the dogs before running up the score. One of the big keys here that I think people may be overlooking is that rain is in the forecast all day long in State College today. Beaver Stadium in PA will still be packed with fans but the field conditions could get sloppy here. I mean we are not just talking about drizzle or mist, this is supposed to a significant and persistent rainfall. I love having big dogs in ugly weather games and you will rarely see lines bigger than this one. I know UMass is a bad football team but they won their season opener on the road and also have a 2 point road loss under their belts, a 3 point home loss in OT as well, and they had as many first downs as Toledo in their loss to the Rockets last week that was a bit of a "phony" final score. Of course, the Minutemen are nowhere near on the level of Penn State but they have been a bit more competitive this season than what I have seen from them in the past. Also, they have a bye week on deck and certainly will leave it all on the field for this one in terms of their best effort. Speaking of byes, the Nittany Lions are off a bye week after a Big Ten road win at Northwestern and they have a huge game on deck at Ohio State. This is the perfect spot for the Nittany Lions to be a bit complacent early on in this game plus then start thinking about the Buckeyes once they do get up big in this game. They will likely rest their first stringers as this game goes on plus the expected ugly weather conditions will likely make the right choice to be a conservative grind it out second half with a heavy dose of the ground game and just running clock. Note that PSU is 0-4 ATS when they are playing with rest and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of less than .666 and this is another one of those perfect spots for the Lions to be a bit complacent. Also, Penn State has covered just 20% of the time when coming off a game against Northwestern. I like all the edges here, including the weather, to help this game end up being decided in the 20s or maybe 30s at most. 10* MASSACHUSETTS + points

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys + points vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - In Lance Leipold's first season at Kansas the Jayhawks came to Stillwater, OK and got annihilated 55 to 3. They got major payback last season when they hosted the Cowboys and won 37 to 16. So the home team in the Mike Gundy vs Lance Leipold match-ups is 92 to 19 so far. This one, of course, is not going to be that easy for the hosts but I do think the home team wins and I love the fact we are getting 3 points to work with as home dog OSU is catching a full field goal as of early game day morning. Quick...when is the last time Kansas was a Big 12 road favorite? Stumped? Don't feel bad as it has been more than a DECADE as you have to go back about 14 years to find it! Sure, Kansas is improved and Oklahoma State is down from where they use to be but their ugly home loss to South Alabama was the wake-up call this team needed. The Cowboys have been undervalued since then and got an outright win last week as a double digit home dog to Kansas State! Just like knocking off the Wildcats they can now knock off the same-state Jayhawks as well. Kansas did not win last week's game as easily as the final score would lead you to believe. At least from a stats perspective. Also, their road game before that was an annihilation loss at Texas. Kansas has wins against a lot of bad teams this season. The last two games they have been without their starting QB and he is not expected to start this game either. As for the Cowboys, they seem to have things settling down at the QB position and have added confidence of the much needed win last week. Now they look to get some revenge and this spot is also supported by an 11-0 ATS angle. The last 11 times that OSU has been a dog of less than 7 points against a team that is coming in off a SU win, they have covered the spread all 11 times! This one should make it 12 straight as the Cowboys get revenge for last year's embarrassing loss at Kansas. Gundy has his guys ready and they protect their home turf in this one! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE + points

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 10 ET - This line is around a dozen points as of early gameday morning and I feel it will prove to be too much. Stanford has a new head coach this season and is having some growing pains as expected. However, now they enter this game off a bye week and having had a chance to evaluate everything and make some changes and get ready to attack the rest of the season refreshed a bit both mentally and physically. Colorado, on the other hand, has a bye on deck and they enter this game off a tight win at Arizona State where they won the game by 3 points plus were outgained by 100 yards! The Buffaloes are over-rated because of all the Coach Prime hype. I am not saying they will not win this game but I do not expect them to cover. Note that 3 of the 4 wins Colorado has have come by a margin of 8 points or less and the one by 8 points was a very fortunate OT win over Colorado State. The other key about the Buffs wins is that none of them have come against a team that currently has a winning record this season. Now, as noted above, Stanford has certainly struggled. But one could argue (and rightly so) that the Buffaloes could easily be a 1-win team so far this season just like Stanford. Also, this situation is set up well with the Cardinal coming in off a bye week and catching double digits in points. I know Stanford has been bad this season but the Buffaloes are over-valued and the Cardinal view this game as a big one to jump-start their 2nd half of the season and the lion's share portion of their Pac-12 schedule which remains. The Buffaloes will overlook the Cardinal and this big road dog comes into this one fully ready. An outright upset would not shock me but of course that is still asking a bit much. I will happily grab the big points! 10* STANFORD (+)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - When Dana Holgorsen was coaching West Virginia he left because he could not get the contract he wanted. The Mountaineers certainly could afford to pay him but they just did not want to. They felt he was not worth it and Holgorsen ended up in Houston while Neal Brown took over at West Virginia. The result was that Brown ended up on the hot seat with struggles with the Mountaineers whereas Holgorsen built up to the level of an 11-2 season and bowl win just 2 years ago. They then won their bowl game again last season but it was overall a lackluster campaign compared to the year prior. Now, having struggled some early this season too, this first game after a bye week and first chance against his former team has Holgorsen and his team fired up. They want this game badly. Sometimes bye weeks come at a great time for a team and other times it is bad timing. In this case, the Cougars had been struggling with 3 losses in 4 games since winning their season opener versus UTSA. Conversely, the Mountaineers had surprisingly been rolling with 4 straight wins. That makes this a perfect set up because Houston needed the bye but it was the last thing West Virginia wanted. Think about it too...why is a team that has won 4 straight laying just 3 points against a team that has gone 1-3 last 4 games and struggled in their Big 12 games? Don't fall for the trap here! The Cougars are hungry and at home and their coach will have them ready for this, perhaps, "do or die" game in the eyes of Holgorsen! 10* HOUSTON (+)

CFB Wednesday Sam Houston State Bearkats (+) @ New Mexico State Aggies @ 9 ET - Handicapping lesson 101. When you see a home team that is 3-3 laying only about a field goal to a team that is 0-5 on the season, it is time to take a close look. In this case, I would almost never play a favorite but would look at that winless dog. In this case, everything checks out for being worthy of a bet. I certainly respect coach Jerry Kill and his Aggies are decent, especially on defense. However, this Bearkats team has played the tougher overall schedule. There is a good reason this game is priced this way. Do not let the line fool you. The Bearkats nearly upset Liberty last week and they should have beaten Jacksonville State the week prior when they led by 8 with under 20 seconds to go! The point is that this team is much better than their 0-5 record would lead you to believe. The Bearkats have been double digit dogs in 4 of their 5 games so that tells you just how tough their schedule has been. Prior to a win over a bad FIU team last week in which the Aggies did not even pull away until the 4th quarter, New Mexico State was just 1-3 SU this season against FBS teams and Sam Houston has had just 1 home game this season while this will be the 4th home game this season for NM St. The point is that there is contrarian line value here with this 0-5 team that is catching 3 points plus the hook as of late morning game day. I am expecting an outright upset here but grabbing the points just in case. SAM HOUSTON STATE (+) 

CFB Tuesday Liberty Flames (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - Two weeks ago the Gamecocks pulled a rabbit out of the hat as -6.5 point favorites on the road at Sam Houston State. Ironically this line also is currently a 6.5 as of late morning Tuesday but this time Jacksonville State is on the other side of it as a home dog. I am laying the points with the road team here. The Gamecocks -6.5 were down 8 to the Bearkats but then scored a TD and 2 point conversion with just seconds left in regulation to force OT. They then got the ball first in OT and scored to take a 7 point lead and, you guessed it, Sam Houston could not answer. Was a miracle cover for the Gamecocks. Then last week they were down 23 to 7 at the half against Middle Tennessee State. Unbelievably Jacksonville State did it again. Not only rallying for the win they made it look even easier than it was as they won 45 to 30. All this has done is given us exceptional line value here because both those teams the Gamecocks beat are nowhere close to the level of this Liberty team. The Flames are undefeated this season and have the much better offense in comparison with the Gamecocks. I know Liberty did not dominate the Bearkats like they should have last week but they were up 21 to 10 at half and started looking ahead to this game. By the way, a few weeks ago Liberty caught FIU off an outright upset win at Connecticut. The Flames proceeded to blast Florida International in a 38 to 6 win. That makes Liberty 5-0 ATS when catching an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog! They now catch Jacksonville State in that same situation with the Gamecocks off an outright upset win at Middle Tennessee! Look for this system to improve to 6-0 ATS as J-St gets blasted! The Flames are on a 31-11 SU run at the FBS level while the Gamecocks are still quite new to this level of football. Do not let the line scare you. The road team should take this in a rout! Lay it! LIBERTY (-) 

NCAAF Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - Kentucky just beat Florida and they are 5-0 SU this season and 4-0 ATS against FBS foes as their only non-cover was against an FCS school. Also, the Wildcats 4-0 ATS last 4 against Georgia. The Bulldogs enter this game 0-4-1 ATS on the season. So all of these perfect angles favor a play on the big dog Cats in this one and yet I am on the Dawgs! The fact is this line is 14.5 (as of game day morning) for a reason! Why would a game involving two ranked teams have one team laying more than 2 touchdowns? Exactly! The odds makers know what they are doing folks and I am expecting an absolute blowout home win here. Georgia has not been as impressive early this season and that is why they are still seeking first ATS win. However, this does not change the fact they are undefeated SU and national champs, etc. Also, the only team that Kentucky has faced this season that had a winning record last season was the FCS school Eastern Kentucky and they were only 7-5 this season. Yes beating Florida last week was big for the Wildcats but the Gators are not what they were a few years back. Also, Kentucky ran all over the Gators but the Bulldogs won't allow that here in their house. This will force the Wildcats to pass and their passing attack is still suspect. There are a number of injury concerns for Kentucky entering this one as well. So, analyzing all the variables here, I am fully expecting a blowout win and have no hesitation in facing the triple perfect trends ATS that are noted above. 10* GEORGIA (-)

NCAAF Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET @ Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas - Current line, as of about 6 hours before kick off is a solid 5.5 and this is a huge revenge game for the Sooners. I know revenge is overplayed but this is not just any revenge game. That's because these teams have been meeting for over 100 years! You read that right, they meet each other every year in the Red River Rivalry in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas and this neutral site game is a big deal for these two schools. Before last year's shellacking, each of the most recent 4 meetings had been decided by 8 or less points. I expect another tighter game here in this year's match-up but sense an upset. We'll grab the points as added insurance but Oklahoma and Texas off to great starts this season but the Sooners - unlike in their first year under Venable last season - are a very confident bunch this time around. Texas won 49 to 0 last season! You read that right...49 to 0 and it was complete domination. Yes, Ewers has been great at QB for the Longhorns but Gabriel (missed last season's game due to injury) has also been fantastic this season for the Sooners. Gabriel will make up for missing last year's game and OU will make up for getting blown out. Texas has not won B2B games in the Red River Rivalry since 2008/2009 and that win in '09 was by just 3 points. The last time the Longhorns won B2B games in the RRR and would have covered a spread of 5.5 was when they won the 2005/2006 match-ups. So yes it has been over 15 years! I like the odds when you consider those facts and though I think UT deserves the hype they are getting early this season, I also feel that OU is on a mission this year and they are much better than the markets are giving them credit for here. Give me the big points! 10* OKLAHOMA (+) points

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Illinois Illini (-) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I was on Nebraska earlier this season when they scored just 14 points at Colorado. Yes that is the over-hyped Buffaloes that are not very good defensively. In the Buffs other 4 games against teams not named Nebraska they allowed an average of 42 points per game! Again, the Cornhuskers put up a measly 14 points. Here lies the problem with this 2-3 Huskers team is that they only scored decently in two wins over two very bad teams. Louisiana Tech lost again last night and only had 3 wins in each of the last two seasons. Also, Northern Illinois is just 1-4 this season. Those are the Huskers two wins. In their other 3 games this season they have scored an average of just 10 points. Yes one of those games was Michigan (last week) but what the hell happened in the other games? Exactly! Not a whole helluva lot! I am not big on Illinois this year but they are home laying just 3.5 points (as of early game day morning) and this is as much a play against the Huskers as it is a play on the Illini. Note that Illinois has faced Penn State and Kansas this season and those two teams are a combined 9-1 on the year with the Jayhawks only loss coming to undefeated Texas. So the point is that the Illini might be a little better than their record shows and they are 2-1 in their other games. The Illini are coming off an ugly loss to Purdue on the scoreboard but the yardage in that game was about equal. The Illini will bounce back here at home and though Matt Rhule will eventually get things going at Nebraska it will take time. His first year at Temple he was 2-10 SU and his first year at Baylor he was 1-11 SU. This is his first year at Nebraska and he has 2 wins so far but against very bad teams and when you look at his remaining schedule it will be tough to get wins for sure. Unlike Rhule, Brett Bielema is in his 3rd year at Illinois and the Illini had gone 2-6 the covid year before he got here and then went 5-7 and then 8-4 last season. So the Bielema project is much further along than the Rhule project at this point in time. Also, taking a look at the Illini, again their other 2 losses this season they were a dog and those 2 teams they lost to are a combined 9-1 this season. The loss to Purdue is the one outlier for Illinois and that just happened. Teams often bounce back off embarrassing losses like that and I expect the Illini will do just that here. 10* ILLINOIS (-)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -6 @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ 8 ET - One could argue that Louisiana Tech's best player on offense is QB Hank Bachmeier. He might be out again this week but even if he does play he will not be 100% due to shoulder injury. One could also argue that the Bulldogs best player on defense is senior linebacker Brevin Randle and he will not play in this game as he has been suspended for a head stomp in the win at UTEP. Louisiana Tech was actually outgained by the Miners in that victory and UTEP is not a good football team. Yes the Hilltoppers overall stats are not great this season but they also played Ohio State and, as expected, were thoroughly dominated by the Buckeyes. That is certainly impacting their stats. Keep in mind, they went 3-1 SU in their other 4 games and the lone WKU loss was by just 3 points while each of the 3 wins was by a margin of at least 17 points! Louisiana Tech's only other FBS win, besides the unimpressive win over UTEP last week, was a 5-point win over a bad FIU team. The Bulldogs have 3 losses this season and 2 of those have been by at least 14 points and I expect this one will be too! QB Austin Reed is solid for the Toppers and he is the healthier of the QBs here and overall the road favorite has big edges over a home dog that is simply a bad football team. They have won just 3 games each of the past two seasons and their win at UTEP last week was their first road win in 17 tries dating back to the 2020 season. Yes they are now back home for this one but a streak of 16 straight road losses prior to last week shows just how bad this team really is. I like the road team to get the win here and love the fact the line has dropped down some and is below a TD. The value is with the road favorite against a wounded home dog dealing with some issues on both sides of the ball. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY -6

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 8 ET - This line is around a 3.5 as of very early gameday morning and I am expecting a solid win and cover for MTSU here. They are at home and coming off a turnover-fueled loss at Western Kentucky last week. The game against WKU is a big one for the Blue Raiders and so I did some research on this and they have lost a few in a row when facing the Hilltoppers and the result has been a big bounce back effort the following week. In fact, MTSU is now a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 6 times when off a game against Western Kentucky. Look for that trend to continue here as they catch Jacksonville State off a last-gasp fortunate win and cover at Sam Houston. They rallied late against the Bearkats for a game-tying touchdown with the necessary two point conversion as well! Then the Gamecocks got the win in overtime. Not only that, this big comeback OT win was on the road. I feel that will have taken a lot out of Jacksonville State and they did give up 300 yards of passing offense to a Sam Houston team that had been very weak on offense this season. Now the Gamecocks face a Middle Tennessee State team angry off a loss and, keep in mind, turnovers played a key role in that defeat at Western Kentucky! MTSU has faced the much tougher schedule and that is offering huge line value here! Trust me, there is a reason this 1-4 Blue Raiders team is favored over this 4-1 Jacksonville State team and the line is no mistake! Lay it! 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) vs Central Florida @ 3:30 ET - Current line is in the 9 or 9.5 range here and I am going to challenge the big favorite to win this by double digits. Baylor is expected to Shapen back at QB for this one while Central Florida is still without Plumlee. I know the Bears are 1-3 this season but their 3 losses this season were to an improved Texas State team and to Utah and Texas! These are all solid teams that entered this week's action with a combined 11-1 record on the season! I don't think Baylor is what they use to be BUT they are also much better than their record shows and Shapen is a very strong QB that will give this team a huge boost this week. UCF is also not what they use to be and, though they have been surviving without Plumlee in recent weeks they will struggle more without him in a tougher game like this. The Bears feel their backs are to the wall and they get their starting QB back and there is a feeling of "now or never" for Baylor. I think they will come out strong and this Knights team is not what they use to be. UCF is 3-1 this season but 2 of the wins against FCS schools and one of those was against Boise State and the Broncos are not as strong as in the past. Also, coming off a loss against Kansas State last week that ended their unbeaten start to the season, the Knights may be thinking they just come home and all is well again because they are in the Bounce House. However, this Bears team is going to come to play and an outright win would not surprise me. At the very least I expect the road dog to lose this one by only a one score margin if they even lose. 10* BAYLOR (+) points

CFB Friday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 10:15 ET - I like the underdog line value after the line move. This line has swung toward the Bearcats and currently we can get home dog BYU at +1 or +1.5 as of very early gameday morning. The fact is that Cincinnati had a lot of coaching changes heading into the season and even the assistant coaches that Scott Satterfield had ended up taking "better" opportunities elsewhere. Of course former head coach Luke Fickell moved onto Wisconsin. The point is that this one, for me, is as much a play against Cincy as it is a play on BYU. This is a tough spot for the Bearcats the way I see it. Yes they knew that beating Oklahoma last week was a lot to ask and sure enough they lost by two TDs. Still, the Cats did want that home game badly and now they are traveling on the road on a short week and in the thin air of Provo in Utah. This Brigham Young team is off a loss but they faced a tough Kansas team that is now 4-0 on the season. The Jayhawks are a different team under head coach Lance Leipold and there is no real shame in that loss for BYU. Still, that was the first loss of the Cougars on the season and I look for them to bounce back here at home and though the competition was weaker it is still worth noting something here. Brigham Young won first two home games this season by a combined score of 55 to 16 and they will make the most of this spot as it is their first home game in 3 weeks. Both teams have a bye on deck but I like the fact Bearcats are on the road here. Cougars will take advantage. The Cats lost at home to Miami-Ohio which is bad news for sure about the current state of this program. The fact that is their only ATS loss in 4 games this season while BYU is 1-3 ATS this season is also helping to give us line value here. Lets take advantage. 10* BYU + points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 7:30 ET - The dominant line here as of early game day morning is 6.5 but there is some 6 out there and I am laying it. I am going to start here by talking about Colorado State which may surprise you but it is with good reason. What does Colorado State have to do with this game? Plenty! The Rams had the memorable devastating double-OT loss to Colorado two weeks ago. They never should have blown the big lead and lost that game and it was heartbreaking. Following the gut-wrenching loss they were going on the road to Middle Tennessee State. Situations from the scheduling gods don't get much better than that for the Blue Raiders. They were catching a team playing B2B games away from home and they were catching them off a soul-crushing loss. How did MTSU handle it? Like the very weak team they are. The Blue Raiders lost outright even though they were favored in that one. Now they face a Western Kentucky team that has dominated them in recent meetings and also comes in angry off B2B losses. The Hilltoppers are going to roll here at home. Not only have they won big in the last two meetings, they are also on a 6-0 ATS run in weeknight home games. You know the Toppers are fired up with this primetime weeknight opportunity on their home field and they will pull away as this one goes along! WKU improves to 7-0 ATS in this spot! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7:30 ET - It is impossible to forecast the exact timing of the rain but showers followed by heavy rain and some wind - not too windy but possible gusts - are moving into the area because of Tropical Storm Opheila. State College, PA is over 200 miles away the ocean but the fact is those bands of rain are coming deep inland and I love having big points with an underdog when conditions are a little bit sloppy. This is particularly true when it is a defensive-minded dog that likes to run the football. I know that the Nittany Lions have a great record so far and have looked good but they benefited firstly from rather easy opponents then first two weeks - dysfunctional West Virginia team and an FCS team (Delaware) - and then secondly from Illinois turning the ball over 5 times against them last week! Penn State is a rock solid team and I really like their QB too. They have the definite aerial attack edge in this match-up but you can tell by the low total posted on this game, this one is expected to be a low-scoring defensive-minded rush-oriented match-up. This Hawkeyes team has a very tough defense and they are well-coached. Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the nation and has been here for a quarter-century now! The Hawkeyes have won the the last two meetings outright and, while I am not anticipating that here, I am expecting this one to be decided by a one-score margin. That means excellent line value with Iowa available at +14.5 and no less than +14 as of early gameday morning. We'll take it! 10* IOWA + points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs UCLA Bruins @ 3:30 ET - This line has been all over the place because of the uncertain status of QB Cameron Rising for the Utes. Let me tell you what we do know about this match-up. Kyle Whittingham is a better coach than Chip Kelly. The UCLA young quarterback has played well but makes his first ever PAC-12 road start. The Bruins are playing right into the teeth of revenge as UCLA won a tight one (though double digit final margin of 10) over Utah last season. That was the 1st win in 4 tries for Kelly with the Bruins against Whittingham with the Utes. The first 3 meetings...how did those go? Utah won all 3 by at least 20 each team and with an average margin of victory at 32 points! There is nothing average about that and the Utes defense got embarrassed last season at UCLA. That is where one of the biggest keys lies in this rematch. Everyone is talking about QB Rising and the fact he may miss again but the Utes offense has still been decent and they still have the better defense in this match-up plus they are at home and plus this Utah defense wants to prove that last season was an aberration. A lot of key factors including a solid low number here (3.5 as of early gameday morning) have me all over the Utes in this one! 10* UTAH (-) points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina (-) vs Georgia State @ 7:30 ET - This series has been dominated by the road team recently and, in my opinion, that is keeping the line (6.5 at time of this posting) on this one lower than it should be. Coastal Carolina is really rolling under their new coach after all the changes made after last season's last collapse. I like this Chanticleers team. I am not crazy about their defense but they have enough offense to dominate in this one. Keep in mind, new head coach Tim Beck was offensive coordinator at NC State and he has this offense firing on all cylinders now. They have played the tougher schedule than Georgia State thus far. The Chanticleers had to face the Bruins at UCLA and having that one really tough game and a SU loss helps them here. Georgia State is 3-0 SU but has not really been challenged yet. The Chanticleers are 3-0 ATS this season as they did cover in that SU loss at UCLA. The Panthers have been allowing more points than Coastal Carolina and CC has the stronger offense too. Combining all that with the home field edge, the play here is the home team as laying less than a TD is a real bargain here and the current line is 6.5 on this one at time of posting. The Chanticleers are 100% ATS this season and I am happy to test that here. Look for 4-0 ATS after this one goes in the books! 10* COASTAL CAROLINA (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys + @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - The Cowboys are catching the Longhorns at the right time to hang tough in this game. There is a lot of value here with Wyoming currently catching as much as 30 points as of early gameday morning. This Cowboys defense returned virtually everyone from last season's team and they are very solid on that side of the ball. Texas is off the huge win in upset fashion at Alabama last week and they have their Big 12 opener next week. Not only that, it is nearby Baylor who they are facing. The Longhorns and Bears do not get along at all. They are rivals and do not like each other so this is absolutely a sandwich spot for Texas. The Horns off the upset of Crimson Tide and opening their Big 12 portion of the season next week. Of course I am not saying the Longhorns lose this game but I just can not see them winning by more than 2 or 3 touchdowns. Wyoming has confidence from the OT win versus Texas Tech. Remember the Red Raiders beat this UT team last year! Again, I am not saying Wyoming is as good as is Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are as good as Texas! Not at all! I am just saying that you can see the Cowboys will not be intimidated here and they have a veteran defense and they have the added confidence of a 2-0 start. I think UT has been very benefited by the turnover margin early this season and this is the type of game where some of those bounces finally do not go their way. The Cowboys will hang around in this one and stay inside the inflated number. 10* WYOMING + points

CFB Saturday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - This line is holding at 14 as of early game day morning. Remember 2 weeks ago when Penn State punched it in late (just seconds left on the clock) for a "meaningless" TD against West Virginia that gave them a 23 point win in a game in which they were favored by 20 points? That is the kind of stuff to keep in mind when you are contemplating whether or not you are comfortable laying big points with a team. This Nittany Lions team is off to a hot start and yes I know they played an outclassed Delaware team last week but the fact is PSU is rolling with confidence on both sides of the ball right now. This is a much different situation than the last time they faced Illinois and this Illini defense is also much weaker than that one. That match-up I am referring to was only 2 years ago in 2021 but the Nittany Lions entered that game off their first loss of the season. They were demoralized and flat after their 5-0 start to the season came crashing to a halt against Iowa. Penn State went on to lose to Illinois in a crazy OT game of defensive prowess that took forever to finish in a multi-OT slugfest. Things are much different this time around and the Illini do not look nearly as strong for this rematch. Their defense is not as strong and Illinois is 0-2 ATS because they barely got by a MAC team in Week 1 and then got hammered by Kansas last week. Certainly Toledo is a respectable opponent and the Jayhawks are much more respectable than they used to be. However, now the Illini face a revenge-minded and stacked Penn State team that will not hesitate to pile up points even with a big late lead. I expect this one to possibly be tight early for a bit but eventually the much stronger road team pulls away for a win by at least a 3 TD margin the way I see it. There is also a perfect trend here that has gone undefeated the last 14 times involving Penn State. That is that when the Nittany Lions are entering a match-up against a conference foe and PSU is coming off B2B wins both SU and ATS, they have not failed to cover in any of the last 14. There is one push in the bunch and we could see a push here if this one lands on 14 but I am looking for another win by 20+ for this road team! 10* PENN STATE (-)

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - Maybe we will see -7 on this but I want to get this play written up and out to all my customers and the current number is 7.5 and 8 as of Friday morning. Army has some impressive stats already but they played Delaware State - an FCS school - and UL Monroe. Note that the latter (the Warhawks) have won only 8 games the past 3 seasons combined! The Black Knights are a solid scrappy team and can be a tough underdog. But they gave up a pile of points to the Roadrunners last season. I know that Army also scored well in that one but I look for the Runners to be much tougher defensively at home in the rematch. I know UTSA has not been overly impressive early this season but they faced a couple of in-state foes that really had it out for them. Texas State is improved - already upset Baylor - and Houston is a tough in-state foe. In terms of strength of schedule, it is really night and day between these two teams so far this season. Adding to the value here is that UTSA is fully aware that they will NOT have another home game until mid-October! So this is it until a month from now and they will make this one count and they will be relentless. Note that this line was double digits and now has moved down to almost a 7. I love spots like this where the betting markets have adjusted a line substantially. More often than not the move is not warranted. I get it that Army can be a tough dog but this Runners team is solid and has been great under the current regime and won about 75% of its games over 4+ seasons! In terms of covering the spread here, Army's last 8 losses in true road games have seen 6 come by a double digit margin. That is a 75% rate of double digit losses in road defeats in recent seasons that dates back to the 2020 season. More of the same here. 10* UTSA (-)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -14 vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - Longtime followers know I am not big on laying big points in any sport. However, on occasion - when the situation is right - I will not hesitate to step in and lay the lumber. This is one of those rare cases. The Midshipmen are only as good as their QB. It has been that way for a long time and it is not changing anytime soon because they are so dependent on him with the type of offense they play. That said, scoring 24 points on Wagner in game they were favored by 42 points is not a good sign. Remember this was on the heels of a season opening shellacking at the hands of Notre Dame. Navy scored only 3 points in that game. No the Tigers are not the Fighting Irish. However, the Midshipmen have missed the mark ATS by at least 18 points in each of their first two games. That said, I have no hesitation here in rolling with a Memphis team that is so strong offensively that they can pile up big points here and Navy will not be able to keep up. Yes the Tigers faced overmatched Bethune-Cookman and Arkansas State so far but still they have looked solid on both sides of the ball. The way Memphis can score points very quickly and very well and the fact the D looked good against a Red Wolves team that averaged 25 points per game on offense in each of the first two seasons under head coach Butch Jones, don't be surprised if the Tigers roll huge here at home. Remember that big win last week was at Arkansas State and now they are at home here for this visit from Navy. 10* MEMPHIS -14

CFB Saturday Ole Miss Rebels - points @ Tulane Green Wave @ 3:30 ET - Both teams off huge wins last week but Tulane did face the much tougher test but still it was impressive that Ole Miss scored 73 points unanswered after allowing a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play of the game! That said, from a technical standpoint, the Green Wave have not performed well in situations like this. They have failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times when they are home off a double digit ATS cover and are hosting a team that is off a straight-up win. Conversely, this situation sets up well for Ole Miss from a technical standpoint. The Rebels actually have covered nine straight times when they are favored by five or more points and facing a team off a win both SU and ATS. Outside of technical data here, I like the fact that Ole Miss had a great start last season and then faded late in the season. The Rebels have a little extra hunger here and will again do great in non-conference action this season. Of course the SEC the much tougher conference in comparison with the American Athletic Conference. That being said, this AAC team is off a great season but they lost quite a bit from that team and the Green Wave had a 2-win season the year before! In other words, Tulane is still a solid team but of course this is a program that is nowhere near the level of Ole Miss. I also feel the Rebels defense is improved entering this season while the Green Wave defense has taken a step back. This one could be close for awhile but eventually the visitors pull away. They simply have too much offense and are so stacked offensively and are well-coached and Tulane will not be able to keep up for the full 60 here. Wish we could lay less than a TD but I do expect the Rebels to win this by a double digit margin as that ATS streak I mentioned above reaches 10 straight wins! 10* Ole Miss Rebels - points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers + points @ Colorado Buffaloes @ Noon ET - There is some +3 still out there at the time of this posting though it looks like 2.5 could end up being the dominant number on this one. Either way, I like Nebraska as I am actually expecting an outright upset here so really I do not expect the points to be a factor. The Buffaloes are being anointed as title contenders now after just one game. Give credit to coach Sanders for having his guys ready and pulling off the massive upset of the Horned Frogs at TCU last week. However, it is one game! Now there is film out on this team. And guess what...the defense does NOT look good! They allowed over 540 yards to the Frogs last week! Conversely, the Cornhuskers allowed about 250 yards (less than HALF of what TCU allowed) as they fell just short at Minnesota. The Huskers know they should have won that game outright (they did cover ATS) and will be extra hungry for the outright win this week. Keep in mind, most everyone is sick of hearing about Colorado and coach "Prime" and this Cornhuskers defense will come to play and now there is film out on what the Buffaloes offense is capable of. The Huskers allowed just 55 rushing yards to a fantastic rushing team in Minnesota last week. Nebraska now faces a Buffs team that ran for only 55 yards last week. The Cornhuskers were done in by turnovers last week and keep in mind Coach Rhule is a solid coach with NFL experience too and he gives them a coaching edge here. Also, they actually ran for nearly 200 yards. So now we have a defensive-minded underdog with the rushing edge as well. I love spots like this and am going to challenge this over-hyped Colorado team to beat us through the air. Give coach Sanders and his group credit for the upset last week but things can change in a hurry in the college football world and that is particularly true of a new roster of players with a new coach that now has been introduced to the college football world. As they (unlike TCU) now have an idea of what is coming for them this week, one word describes the Cornhuskers here: READY! 10* NEBRASKA + points

Friday CFB 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -3 vs Illinois Illini @ 7:30 ET - This is not the Kansas of old - not under head coach Leipold - no way! As for the Illini - coach Bielema has a poor history in road openers (or 1st neutral site game - anything away from home to start season) and he is 0-2 ATS here with Illinois already. Overall, Illinois is 0-4 ATS L4 years in road openers, the last two with Bielema at the helm. Last week the Illini were at home at home and were favored by nearly double digits against Toledo and yet were outgained and had to win the game on a field goal with just a few seconds left on the clock. I know the Jayhawks pulled away late in their win over FCS opponent Murray State but they also were without starting QB Jalon Daniels who I believe was held out of that game simply because coach Leipold felt they could easily beat the FCS Racers without him. They did end up ultimately winning 48-17 and Daniels is likely getting the start this week. Either way, I like the fact that the Jayhawks are returning one of the most experienced rosters in the country, Leipold is really starting to build something here, the Illini have Big Ten opener versus Penn State on deck, and Kansas has a situational edge factor since they have an extra day of rest (played Friday) plus are home again this week! The Illini are on a short week and have the Nittany Lions on deck plus they are traveling for this one! The Jayhawks have only a non-conference game at Nevada on deck so this is easily the most important early season game for them while the same can not be said for Illinois. This line was around a 4 and I know it may seem hard to trust the Jayhawks as a favorite but the fact the line has moved down to a 3 has me liking this one even more. This line is as of early Thursday morning for the Friday evening affair. Lets jump on it! 10* KANSAS -3

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks (+) points vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET in Charlotte, NC - This is a neutral site game and the current dominant line across all sports books as of gameday morning is 2.5 and I am grabbing the dog here. I like the fact the ranked team, North Carolina, is laying such a short number. I also like the way a few of the books I few as sharp are pricing this game. This has me lining up on what I feel is the sharp side which is also heavily based on what I like in terms of the match-up here too of course. The Gamecocks have really responded well under head coach Shane Beamer (yes he is the son of long-time former head coach Frank Beamer). South Carolina is building some continuity here in the program with Beamer and they finished last season very strong and I feel they will carry that momentum right into this season. Their passing attack is a strength now and QB Spencer Rattler is getting more and more comfortable here as he showed late last season. He will lead the way here against a Tar Heels defense that essentially lost their entire secondary from last season so you are talking about new starters here at key positions in the back of the defense. North Carolina had a lot of question marks in the off-season with a lot going on in the transfer portal including all the uncertainty involving the starting QB. Though he eventually decided to stay it says a lot about this program and that it is a bit shaky right now when I look at their coaching and personnel situations. I feel strongly that the Gamecocks are in better shape to hit the ground running early this season. North Carolina should improve as the season goes on but there is a reason this ranked team is hardly favored here in Week 1 and I love the points in this spot. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET in Atlanta, Georgia - Technically the Yellow Jackets have the home field edge here but it is a neutral site game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This line was originally around 10 and I was hoping we would see it tick down to an even 7 but it has been stuck at 7.5 across the board at the time of this write-up. I feel that is actually a positive sign for us if you will. The fact is the sharp action would come flying in too hard on a 7 and the books are not willing to go there, at least not yet. I say sharp money because the fact is this Louisville team is too strong for Georgia Tech. Look at statistics from last season and it already shows that overall, the Cardinals were already the stronger team. Then when you look at what has transpired with each team in the off-season and the Cards appear much more poised than the Jackets to hit the ground running with strong play this season. Plummer will be the QB and he is off a strong season at Cal and before that was at Purdue where Cardinals head coach Brohm was as well so there is already familiarity for him here working in this offense. This is a great match and their ground game, with Jordan leading the way, will run all over a GT defense that struggles to stop the run. I know Louisville lost quite a bit from the defensive side of the ball but Georgia Tech has a new offensive coordinator and a new QB to run it with King (previously unimpressive at A & M) under center. The Yellow Jackets will have more growing pains than the Cardinals early this season. 10* LOUISVILLE - points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (- points) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game from last season when Utah lost the game late. However, revenge is certainly not the only factor but it certainly does not hurt either! The real value here is because of Utah QB Cameron Rising being out for this game. The key is that the back-up has experience and will be just fine here plus we have seen a line drop from near double digits to now a 4.5 as of gameday morning. The Utes should roll to a big win here as they have much more in the way of returning experience here than the Gators. Also, last season's meeting was in Florida and now this one is in the thin air of Utah and the altitude edge can be a factor for a team like the Gators that hardly ever has to deal with it. For the Utes it certainly is nothing new. I look for the experience edge, home field factor, revenge factor, and line value to all play a role in this one being an ATS victory for us as a win by at least a TD margin is in the cards for the Utes the way I see it. Keep in mind, this line plummeted right past the key number of 7 so the value added is certainly noticeable! Though Cameron Rising is a strong QB the fact is Bryson Barnes has experience already and has a great team around him with which to work and then the other QB option (also could see some snaps) is a guy with dangerous legs! Nate Johnson is a guy loaded with speed and that makes him tough to defend when he is under center as well. 10* UTAH (- points)

Rotation #302 Saturday CFB 10* New Mexico State Aggies -7 vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Of course the point spread is, and must, be a factor but lets first talk about some facts in terms of straight-up records. UMass has lost 24 straight road games! The Minutemen have covered just 6 times in their last 23 road games. UMass is again projected to be one of the worst teams in the nation. New Mexico State has won 6 of last 7 games including their bowl game last season. This team is really responding well under head coach Jerry Kill and I also like the fact they are at home for this one and want to avoid the slow start they had out of the gate last season. The Aggies are much better than the Minutemen and I also like the fact this line opened up around double digits but has come down to the TD mark. Laying 7 points here is something I am very comfortable with and hopefully the line will stay no higher than 7. Either way, lay it with this one and it would not surprise me if this game got steamed as the day goes along Saturday so note this line could rise back up. A lot of lines do that in football. They'll fall in the days coming into game day and then start moving back toward where they came from when the sharps start rolling in with bigger bets on gameday. The fact is the Aggies have won each of the last two meetings by double digits and I expect a similar result here. They are the more talented and more cohesive group and they have an altitude edge at home also plus this is a long road trip for a bad UMass team. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE -7

CFB Monday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -12.5 vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 7:30 ET - My money is on Georgia here as their defense responds after rare sub-par performances recently. The Bulldogs, prior to SEC Championship, had played 12 games in the regular season. Georgia never allowed more than 22 points in a game and their average points allowed was half that at just 11 per game! The Horned Frogs have a solid pass defense but the Bulldogs strength is their ground game on offense and I expect them to run all over TCU in this one. That plus the championship experience edge the Dawgs have gives them a huge edge here. Remember what I said about the Bulldogs defense above? Well the TCU defense has allowed 24 points or more in 10 of their last 12 games. Essentially the opposite of the Georgia defensive performance! In those 10 games, the Horned Frogs allowed an average of 31.6 points per game. I would not be surprised if TCU hangs around early in this one but eventually the strength, power, experience edges for the Bulldogs allow them to pull away in this one. 10* GEORGIA -12.5

CFB Monday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions +1.5 vs Utah Utes @ 5 ET - The Big Ten was particularly tough this season and sent 9 teams to bowl games. Entering Monday's action, 6 had already played and they went 4-2 SU with the one of those two losses being Ohio State losing to the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs by 1 point. by the way, the other Big Team that played in a CFP Semi-Final game was Michigan and they fell just short against TCU. The reason I emphasize this is because the Buckeyes and Wolverines were the only two teams to beat Penn State this season. Keep in mind those two schools had a chance to advance to the National Championship and each fell only just short against the best quality in all of CFB. The Pac-12, on the other hand, had more teams ranked but their quality was not as high as the teams like Michigan and Ohio State. Utah lost to Florida this season and the Gators did not even end up with a winning record. The Utes also lost to UCLA and Oregon. Note that UCLA just got upset by Pittsburgh in the bowls and Oregon barely snuck by a North Carolina team that has a bad defense. The Utes are a high quality program for sure but the point is that the two losses PSU had to Michigan and Ohio State should serve them well here and those were two of the top four programs in the nation this season. Utah has been hit harder by opt-outs than the Lions heading into this one and also the edge in special teams play goes to the Nittany Lions. 10* PENN STATE +1.5 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -5.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 8 ET - The Buckeyes have had a great season but they were losing to Penn State with 9 minutes to go, then got outgained by Northwestern even though they won the game by 14 points, and were only ahead of Maryland by 3 points until a late explosion in the final MINUTE of the game. They then got hammered by Michigan in their final regular season game. So the point is that 4 of the last 5 games involving Ohio State were not so impressive. The Buckeyes were not the same dominating force we saw in the first 7 games of the season. Now they face the defending champions and the Bulldogs are going to pull away as this game goes on. Georgia allowing only 12.8 ppg this season and their strong ground game on offense as well as their fantastic rush defense on the other side of the ball will prove to be the difference in the trenches as this game goes along. The Bulldogs won and covered both games in last year's post-season and both wins were by double digits. The Buckeyes are just 3-3 SU/ATS last 6 games in the CFB playoff match-ups. Ohio State is a high-quality team ot say the least but I just do not see the Dawgs being denied here and like them to win this game by at least a touchdown. 10* GEORGIA -5.5

Bowl Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs +8.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 4 ET - The Wolverines are undefeated but I just can not ignore the lousy track record of coach Harbaugh in big games including bowl games. Also, about Michigan, they were up by only 5 points with less than 7 minutes to go against a mediocre Maryland team in a game that they eventually won by 7 points and that game was at Ann Arbor. Though they did eventually pull away against Penn State and there is no arguing they deserved the big win, the Nittany Lions did have a 3rd quarter lead in that one in 3rd quarter. Also, they had to rally in the 4th quarter of the win over Illinois and again this was a home game for them. Of course at 13-0 and with plenty of dominating wins, the Wolverines are a very strong team. But I like getting more than a TD with a Horned Frogs team that has had a huge season and has prevailed against all odds all season long. I don't see why that would change here. Yes they lost the Big 12 Championship - though in OT - but still had a huge season and that loss was by just 3 points. With a dynamic offense, look for the Horned Frogs to hang around all game long in this one too. I just don't see Michigan winning this one by more than 1 score. Also, an outright upset certainly would not shock me. All the pressure to win here is on Michigan and that is dangerous. The Horned Frogs could prove to be the much more relaxed team and that will pay dividends. 8* TCU +8.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks +4 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - I really like the way Spencer Rattler played late in the season and, overall, the way the Gamecocks played in earning a couple of upset wins late in the year as well. This South Carolina team has a ton of momentum plus they have their starting quarterback here. Conversely, the Fighting Irish closed the season with a disappointing loss plus they lost QB Drew Pyne so they will be using little-used Buchner in this match-up as he has been out much of the season. The Gamecocks enter this one on a 7-2 SU / ATS run. The Fighting Irish enter this game on a 5-2 SU run but 1 of those wins by just 3 points so only 4 of last 7 games were wins by more than the margin on this game and, again, this is a tough spot facing an SEC team that has the QB edge in a big way. I like the momentum of Rattler and the Gamecocks and the fact we are getting more than a field goal here. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA +4

Bowl Thursday 10* Minnesota Golden Gophers -10.5 vs Syracuse in Pinstripe Bowl in Bronx, NY @ 2 ET - The Orange rallied late for a win over BC in their season finale but this followed 5 straight losses. Boston College had a bad season too so this is not much to be proud of. The fact is Syracuse faded badly in the 2nd half of the season and they will be no match here for this tough Minnesota team. The Golden Gophers are too strong with their running game and will push the Orange defense all over the field throughout this game. Syracuse does not have the weapons on offense to keep up here. Note that Minnesota allowed 16 points or less in all 5 of its final games and won 4 of those 5 games. Conversely, the Orange defense allowed 34 points per game in its 5 game losing streak plus did allow 23 to a bad Eagles team in its season finale. This one gets ugly. Lay it! 10* MINNESOTA -10.5

Bowl Saturday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +7 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 8 ET - Just going to challenge the Aztecs to score enough to cover the full TD here. I just don't see that happening. San Diego State has not run the ball as well as they have in recent seasons. They made a switch at QB during the season that helped the team some but also I have to question their motivation here. Last season the Aztecs had a strong year and finished with a dozen wins on the year including their bowl victory over UTSA. This season they are just 7-5 on the year and they face a Middle Tennessee team that could be the hungrier team with this rare trip to Hawaii for them. MTSU wants to make the most of this rare opportunity and, though they have the weaker defense in this match-up, they do have the stronger offense. 3 of the 7 Aztecs wins this season were by 4 or less points. If you look at this match-up "on paper" as they saying goes you may think that San Diego State should dominate and, indeed, the line movement has followed that assumption. I like to fade line moves when the situation is right and this is one of those. Look for the more motivated team - the underdog in this case - to stay inside a 1-score margin in this one and possibly even pull of the upset. 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +7

Bowl Friday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers +2.5 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 6:30 ET - The Tigers are facing a Demon Deacons team that had a lead in all 12 of their games this season yet lost 5 of the 12. They also wrapped up the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. The point is that no lead is safe with Wake Forest and the Tigers are the much better team on defense. The Demon Deacons have allowed at least 30 points in 5 straight games. Missouri allowed 27 points or less in ALL but TWO of their DOZEN games this season. The Tigers started the season only 2-4 but they have 3 close losses to solid SEC foes like Auburn, Georgia, and Florida. Now Missouri very focused on getting a bowl win after falling just short last year versus Army. The Tigers won their final two games this season to get to 6-6 and become bowl eligible. Now Missouri wants to get that 7th win to get to their first winning season in 4 years. Like the motivation factor here while Wake Forest had an 11-3 season last year and went 7-1 in the ACC and played in a New Year's Eve bowl. Will they be motivated enough here? That is a legitimate question for sure and I feel the hungrier team with the far superior defense gets the win here. 10* MISSOURI +2.5

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Air Force Falcons +3.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 7:30 ET - Brutal weather in Fort Worth, TX expected for this one. Temperatures in the teens with wind chills possibly in the teens below zero. I would be the first one to tell you that Air Force is a bit over-rated based on their strength of schedule but there are some key factors here supporting the underdog Falcons. First off the weather is going to help the run-based Falcons offense. Also, Air Force is more used to playing in bad weather games because they play in the mountain west conference. Also, how motivated will Baylor be for this game? Yes it is just up the road from Waco in Fort Worth but the Bears can't be too thrilled about playing in this game after winning the Big 12 title last season. Baylor only ended up 6-6 this season and they recently fired defensive coordinator. This is the Armed Forces Bowl and so you know that the Falcons will come to this game motivated and ready as service academy schools are certainly known for being fully prepared for the biggest of games. Discipline and structure on one side in this one and even if they are the weaker side the fact that motivation and weather go in their favor here plus the fact we are getting 3.5 points to work with as well means that the underdog is the play here. 10* AIR FORCE +3.5

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +4 vs South Alabama Jaguars @ 9 ET - With QB Austin Reed deciding NOT to enter the transfer portal and the fact he WILL play in this game means the Hilltoppers offense is going to be operating at full efficiency for this one. Western Kentucky's passing offense will key this one. South Alabama has lost and failed to cover each of their last two bowl appearances. Now here the Jaguars are favored because of their 10-2 record but the 8-5 Hilltoppers are the play! Don't let the records fool you. The Jags just don't have a potent enough offense to keep up with the underdog in this one. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY +4

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets -3.5 vs Liberty Flames @ 7:30 ET - The Rockets catch a Flames team that struggled late in the season plus has an interim head coach. I also am a contrarian and love the fact that Rockets are 0-4 SU/ATS last 4 bowls and Liberty is 3-0 SU/ATS last 3 bowls. Toledo has been upset in recent bowls and should bounce back here with a strong effort. The Rockets are desperate to end the bowl streak of losses. They have the firepower to get the job done here. Liberty closed the season with 3 straight losses including a UConn team that got hammered by Marshall already in this bowl season. The Flames also lost to Virginia Tech who went 3-8 this season and also lost to a New Mexico State team by 35 and the Aggies barely limped into bowl season. Rockets have momentum after beating Ohio University in the MAC Championship Game too! When I match these teams up I just can not see any areas of the game where I give Liberty the edge. That said, laying the short number is very fair here. 10* TOLEDO -3.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators +8.5 vs Oregon State Beavers @ 2:15 ET - Typical contrarian play for me. Yes I know the Gators have some opt-outs but this line has jumped too high and Florida is not getting near enough respect here. I feel strongly that, given all the extra prep time plus the fact QB Jack Miller was highly recruited and came over from Ohio State will lead to a stronger performance here than most are expecting. Florida is well-coached and will be fully prepared here and this is a solid SEC team taking on an Oregon State team that had gone 9-22 from 2018 to 2020. The Beavers did go 7-6 last season but now after the 9-3 this season are a little over-rated here. I am not saying Oregon State will not win this bowl game but an upset would not surprise me. At the very least, the Gators will stay within a single score margin here. 10* FLORIDA +8.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave -3.5 vs Central Florida Knights @ 4 ET - UCF has had the number of the Green Wave for years now including the meeting earlier this season. That said, why is Tulane favored by more than a field goal here? Exactly! Lay it! This game is priced this way for a reason! The Green Wave have the better defense in this match-up. Their star RB is now healthier. Conversely, the UCF QB Plumlee is set to play in this one but he is not 100%. He is dealing with a hamstring issue. Look for a big ground game from the Green Wave here and look for the Knights offense to continue to stammer and stutter a bit as they have been in recent games. Just do not think Plumlee will be himself here. The Knights defense has had some lapses recently and remember they recently lost to Navy and plus had to rally late, after blowing a huge lead, in their win over a bad South Florida team. So this UCF team is not peaking at the right time and, for the Green Wave, their only AAC loss was to Central Florida and now they can get revenge here. 10* TULANE -3.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans +19 @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 4 ET - The Spartans need a win to be a bowl eligible. Do I think Michigan State will win this outright? No. Do I think Michigan State is a dangerous double digit dog that is going to fight like hell in this game? Yes. Absolutely! The fact is this is just too many points. Yes the Spartans lost to Indiana last week but they outgained the Hoosiers 540 to 288 but still found a way to blow a 24-7 lead and then eventually lose in double overtime. It was a disheartening loss but Michigan State upset Penn State last season and absolutely believes they can do it again here despite the huge line. Now I certainly know that the Nittany Lions are on a red hot ATS run and have been piling up big wins. However, just like the Spartans, they lost big to Michigan and Ohio State. Penn State is 4-2 last 6 games but the wins against Minnesota, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers. None of those are powerhouses and certainly Michigan State is no powerhouse either. But they can compete on the road again here just like they did in most recent road game at Illinois when they won outright as a double digit dog! You can bet the Spartans feel they can do the exact same thing here and there is not only added confidence from that result but also from last week's huge yardage edge over the Hoosiers. Michigan State knows they deserved better and will go hard again this week. Spartans only have 3 losses by more than this margin this season and two of them were to the same Michigan and Ohio State teams that both beat Penn State. The Nittany Lions do not have huge motivation here as they will not be playing for the Big Ten title game and simply look ahead to their big bowl match-up. The Lions certainly want to win their home finale and to continue playing well but there is no arguing that the Spartans should come in as the hungrier team in desperation mode to earn a 6th win for a bowl bid. They may fall short in their quest but they should at least get the solid cover here! 10* MICHIGAN STATE +19

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers -10.5 @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - The Hoosiers were outgained 540 to 288 by Michigan State last week. They got a miracle win in double OT despite that huge yardage deficit. Now they take on a determined Purdue team that got new life with yesterday's shocking upset of Nebraska knocking off Iowa. The Boilermakers are the only team left in the Big Ten West that controls its own destiny. They win this game and they are in the Big Ten Championship Game to face either Michigan or Ohio State - depending on that outcome in the Big Ten East today. So the set up here is a good one for the Boilers to roll. Indiana had lost 7 straight games (and by an average margin of deficit of 20 points) prior to last week's win which, again, was a deceiving final score. So look for the Boilers offense (27 ppg on the road this season) to produce plenty of points here as they face a struggling Indiana defense that has been torched for game after game of late. Also, the Boilermakers D has allowed just 19 ppg last 3 games and can shut down the Hoosiers who were held under 300 yards last week and were held to 17 points or less in 4 of 5 games heading into that one. Rivalry game but the motivation and talent disparity this season mean the favorite wins this by at least a two touchdown margin. 10* PURDUE -10.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UCLA Bruins -10.5 @ California Golden Bears @ 4:30 ET - This sets up beautifully. UCLA is off a tight loss to USC in which they had a 4-1 turnover deficit. California is off a big win over rival Stanford in "The Game" for those long-time rivals. The Bruins enter this game angry and they are so much stronger than Cal. The Golden Bears enter this game content. This is going to turn into a road rout. Normally I don't like to lay big points but this is a rare exception as this game jumped off the page for me given the set-up. UCLA average margin of victory is 26 points the last two meetings with Cal and I fully expect another blowout here. Both teams have some issues on defense for sure but the difference is the prolific offense of the Bruins while the Bears are not strong at all on that side of the ball. Keep in mind the Bears got a 37 yard fumble return for a TD in their comeback win versus the Cardinal last week as they were down by 11 in the 4th quarter! UCLA started the season 6-0 but now has lost 3 of 5 including B2B losses. The Bruins can tie their season record wins record of 10 by winning this game and their bowl game so they still have motivation despite last week's loss to USC. Also, Cal had lost 6 straight games before getting the win over Stanford last week. Bruins one of only six teams in the country averaging over 500 yards of offense per game. 10* UCLA -10.5

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons +6.5 or +7 @ Ohio Bobcats @ 7 ET - Ohio is priced this way because they are at home and still motivated to win as they look to win the MAC East. However, their top QB Rourke was on the sidelines with a heavy brace and ice for the 2nd half of last week's game. Even if he is able to play here he will not be 100%. As for Bowling Green, they are off a big 42-35 road win at Toledo to keep their MAC title game hopes alive. They need to win here and then hope Kent State beats Buffalo on Saturday. The road win for the Falcons was no fluke as they are now 3-0 SU in MAC road games this season and have scored an average of 35.7 ppg in winning all 3. Led by a solid (and healthier) QB in McDonald, the Falcons are off an amazing late win against the Bulls that kept their season alive. BG will build off that emotional last second win, they were down 35-34 when they won it on what was very nearly the final play of the game. The Bobcats are not very strong defensively and rely heavily on their offense to win games. The Falcons are peaking at the right time and will give a wounded Ohio U all they can handle here and possibly even win the game outright. I will take the points. 10* Bowling Green +6.5 or +7

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -7 vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - 5-4 team is favored by a full TD over a 7-3 team in a rivalry game. Looks funny, right? Don't let the line fool you. The Sooners being at home for this is big. QB Dillon Gabriel has been much better at home than on the road this season. Gabriel and the entire offense had a rough game at West Virginia last week and it was a 2nd straight 3-point loss for the Sooners. Keep in mind, all five of their wins this season have been by a double digit margin. Oklahoma is going to take advantage of Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders not being 100 percent. I know he came in last week to lead the Cowboys to the win versus Iowa State but he started the game on the bench for a reason. Also, that was at home against the Cyclones and now he is on the road and he and OSU now face their biggest rivals and those rivals are having a challenging season and have revenge on their minds. In other words, this is essentially Oklahoma's Championship Game if you will! They want revenge after the Cowboys snuck out the win in last season's meeting! That ended a streak of 6 straight wins for the Sooners in this series. Look for OU to get back to the winning side of things here. At home this season they have scored an average of 40 points per game! Oklahoma State has scored an average of only 12 points in their last 3 games heading into this one. The Cowboys have lost their last two road games by an average margin of 34.5 points. Another ugly defeat for OSU on the road is in the forecast here! 10* OKLAHOMA -7

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars -3.5 @ Arizona Wildcats @ 2 ET - The Cougars have rival Washington on deck but the Wildcats have rival Arizona on deck so that is a wash. Washington State has 4 losses this season but 3 of the losses were to ranked teams! The other loss was at Oregon State but the Cougars did outgain the Beavers in that one so the final score was deceiving. The point is that this Washington State team is quite solid and they certainly have a much better defense than Arizona. The Wildcats are off a huge upset at UCLA as a nearly 3 TD underdog so this is a beautiful set-up for a letdown for Arizona. The Cats had lost 4 straight games prior to beating the Bruins. Arizona has not won B2B games all season. All 6 of their losses by at least 8 points and the average margin of defeat is 18.3 points! I know they shocked UCLA last week but, prior to that, Arizona's only 2 losses since winning their season opener were against an FCS school and a Colorado team that has played like an FCS school this season! In their 4 defeats prior to beating the Bruins, Arizona allowed 45 points or more in all 4 losses! The Cougars, on the other hand, have allowed only 19.3 points per game last 6 games. We get a favorable line because they are on the road and I won't hesitate to back the much better team here and much better defense at a very fair number here! 10* WASHINGTON STATE -3.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play New Mexico Lobos +14.5 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 9:45 ET - Yes the Lobos offense has been ugly. But this New Mexico defense is solid and there are situational aspects to this play that make it very unlikely the Aztecs will win this by more than a 2-TD margin so I am happy to grab the 14 plus the hook here in a game I expect to be decided by just a 1-score margin. San Diego State is hot and has won 4 of 5 but note this team is just 1-3 on the road this season. Their lone road win was by 16 points at Nevada but was helped by turnovers too. The Aztecs offense has been better since they switched to Mayden at QB but he threw for only 156 yards against the Wolf Pack. Also, he threw 2 interceptions in his other road start. Being successful on the road is not easy and I expect Mayden and the Aztecs to have some struggles here against a respectable Lobos defense that will be fired up here. This is the bowl game for New Mexico if you will. This is their home finale and has ended up being their biggest game of the season in an otherwise disappointing campaign. New Mexico Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long was the head coach at San Diego State for many years. Long will have his Lobos defense fired up for this one and I expect a tight low-scoring game here which should mean an easy cover for us. San Diego State off big game win versus San Jose State last week plus have another tough big game against Air Force on deck. This is a flat spot situation for the Aztecs whereas the fired up Lobos are fully focused here and want to get the shocker in their home finale. 10* NEW MEXICO +14.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears -2.5 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Bears opened up favored at 3.5 and even as high as -5 at some of the earliest posting shops. Baylor is down to a 2.5 as of game day very early morning. Everyone is seeing that a ranked team is getting points here and everyone sees the stats that Bears were fortunate to beat Sooners at Oklahoma last week. Also, everyone sees that Wildcats deserved better at home against Texas last week. However, this is just all leading to exceptional line value here with a Baylor team that plays different when at home and is catching Kansas State off 3 straight emotional games and that is on the road for the first time in 3 weeks! The Wildcats had a chance to knock off undefeated TCU and did not then they won a huge home game against Oklahoma but fell short against Texas. That is 3 straight very big games for the Cats. Note that they have averaged scoring just 19 points per game last two road games and could be emotionally spent here. Also, the Bears have won 4 straight meetings with Kansas State! The Bears have one home loss this season but they outgained Oklahoma State by nearly 100 yards in the surprising defeat. Their other 3 home games have been won by a combined score of 146 to 40. That includes a Big 12 win over an improved Kansas team in which the Bears had 28 first downs compared to just 11 for the Jayhawks! Remember Baylor is coming off a huge season last year and yes they have regressed a little but this is still a very strong, very well-coached team, that loves to play in Waco and will be riled up for a huge win here over the Wildcats. Fade the line move as the Bears improve to 11-1 their last 12 home games! They are strong here and I do not trust this Kansas State team on the road off of 3 straight huge games. This is a tough spot for them and they will struggle to keep up with the strong offense that the Bears have. 10* BAYLOR -2.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -10.5 vs Maryland Terrapins @ 3:30 ET - Maryland just got blasted at Wisconsin and has failed to cover 4 straight games. Not only is this a B2B road game situation for the Terrapins, they will be facing a very motivated Nittany Lions team. Yes, Penn State did win at Maryland last season but they also have not forgotten the Terps last visit to State College. That was in the pandemic-impacted 2020 season and the Nittany Lions lost 35-19 despite having nearly twice as many first downs in the game. PSU was about a 4 TD favorite in that game but was done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit and got embarrassed at home. The Lions will be ready for payback here and, with this line dropping a little bit, I feel we have excellent value here. The average margin of victory in Penn State's last 6 wins is 25.5 points. All 6 were by a double digit margin. The Nittany Lions most recent home game was a loss to Ohio State and, as noted above, they did lose to Maryland last time they met here. Those two factors mean that the Nittany Lions will be very focused here. Insuring that focus is the fact they have Rutgers (1-4 in Big Ten action) on deck. Lay it and look for the hosts to pull away as this game gets into the 2nd half. 10* PENN STATE -10.5

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -6.5 vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 7:30 ET - Tulsa has QB issues. Brin has been hurting and, even if he plays, he has been throwing too many picks lately. The other option for the Golden Hurricane QB is Braxton but he is a freshman and would be making a road start here against an angry Memphis team that has lost 4 straight games and is ready for a huge bounce back here. The Tigers are much better than their record shows and this is their final AAC home game of the season. In a primetime situation on a Thursday night, I look for Memphis to put on a show in this one! Beautiful weather expected for this one and the Tigers can put up huge points at home in this one. I just don't think, even though Memphis D is not a strength, that Tulsa can keep up here given their QB situation. The Golden Hurricane have just 3 wins this season and they have come against a Northern Illinois team that entered this week with a 2-7 record. Also an FCS school, Jacksonville State, and a Temple team that is 1-4 in conference games this season. Tulsa's last 5 losses all by at least 8 points and the average margin of defeat has been 15 points. As for Memphis, yes they have been losing but they faced some tough match-ups and lost some tight games too. The Tigers will take advantage here of taking a step down in level of opposition. Keep in mind, Memphis lost by a single point then lost a game in 4-OT, then lost B2B games against teams that were ranked in Top 25. The Tigers 4 wins this season all by double digit margins and average margin of victory was 17 points. Getting them at under a TD here is a great bargain price. Look for huge home win in a statement game for the Tigers. 10* MEMPHIS -6.5

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes -2.5 @ Bowling Green Falcons @ 7 ET - Love the set-up and the motivational/pressure factors in this one plus the line. Why would Kent State be favored by 2.5 on the road when they are 3-6 on the season and Bowling Green is having a winning season including 4-1 in MAC play? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you here. The Golden Flashes have played the much tougher schedule overall as well as within the MAC. The Falcons are over-rated right now. Kent State certainly has the much better offense in this match-up with Schlee back under center. Also, all the pressure is on Bowling Green here. With Ohio University's win last night, BG needs a win here to maintain a tie atop the MAC East standings and plus Buffalo (in action tonight) is in the mix as well. That said, Falcons are feeling pressure while Golden Flashes looking to play the role of spoiler. Kent State has won 4 straight meetings and by a combined score of 186 to 92. All 4 wins have been by at least 7 points so were are testing a 100% streak here and the Golden Flashes have truly dominated this period as they have doubled up the Falcons in total points the past 4 years. Kent State averaging 28 points scored in their 5 MAC games but is off a tight loss last week. Bowling Green is on a 3-game winning streak but has scored an average of only 18 points last 4 MAC games! The Falcons have not had a 4-game winning streak since the 2015 season! They are over-rated right now and playing with pressure they are not use to. The Golden Flashes take advantage. 10* KENT STATE -2.5

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 @ Kansas Jayhawks @ 3:30 ET - I know there are major questions at quarterback for both teams entering this one. I know the markets have moved toward Kansas in this game. I am happy to grab the extra value on a well-coached Oklahoma State team that is off a thoroughly embarrassing 48-0 loss last week. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have beaten the Jayhawks 12 straight times. Also, OSU was 6-1 SU and ATS prior to that loss last week to the Wildcats. The only loss that Okla St had suffered this season, prior to last week, was a defeat in double-OT. In other words, I feel we have seen a severe over-reaction to last week's result and we are getting value with a Cowboys team that is sure to come out angry and focused for this game. I know Jayhawks are better than past teams but their defense has been very bad too. Though Kansas enters this game off a bye, they had lost 3 straight games and by an average margin of 10 points per defeat before that week off. Lets not forget that OSU was a top ten team entering last week's game. They should bounce back strong here no matter the QB situation for either side. I know the emotion that Cowboys are going to bring to this team under coach Gundy! Look for the 12-0 run in favor of the Cowboys in meetings between these foes to make it 13 in a row! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5

Saturday CFB 10* Penn State Nittany Lions -13.5 @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - Looks like most of the weather is going to move through before this game gets underway so this one is a go for me after having to wait it out a bit. Penn State should roll to a huge win here just like they did after losing badly at Michigan last month. The Nittany Lions turned around and rolled the Gophers. Yes this time the Lions are on the road and Indiana is off a bye week but this Hoosiers team has lost 5 straight games. This included a loss to Rutgers in their most recent game and they lost WR Cam Camper to a season-ending ACL injury in that one too! Sean Clifford had huge numbers for PSU versus Ohio State last week but also had turnover problems. He has been challenged by his head coach as a result of that and I expect he and this Penn State offense to attack a bad Hoosiers defense all day long in this one! On the other side of the ball, the Indiana offense has struggled in recent games and losing their top WR certainly will not help matters. The Hoosiers already have 3 losses by 14 or more points and this one should fall into this category as well. Be warned that there is a chance that Lions could start a little slow out of the gate, though I am not expecting that, but the Lions will come ROARING back either way as they are just too much for this bad Hoosiers team. 10* PENN STATE -13.5

CFB Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys +1.5 @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET - The Cowboys have been a covering machine this season and they enter this game red hot ATS. Not only that, Kansas State is off a loss at TCU plus won their prior game by just a single point and already lost a home game versus Tulane this season too. Also, the Wildcats are hosting an OSU team that has performed well as a Big 12 road dog under Gundy and I love the fact the line has flipped here. The Cowboys have gone from being the favorite to the dog in this one. Kansas State did beat Oklahoma by a TD this season but that win is looking less impressive now that the Sooners have struggled so much this season. The point is that I am not a believer in the Cats being a very solid 5-2 team. The Cowboys, in my opinion, are a very strong 6-1 team that suffered it's only loss this season in double OT! OSU is off big win versus Texas but Cowboys do NOT have a penchant for letdowns under Gundy. His team will be ready here and having a veteran QB like Spencer Sanders is a HUGE plus as well! 8* OKLAHOMA STATE +1.5