10* NFL Wild Card Saturday TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Browns/Texans OVER 44.5

10* NFL Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON: Chiefs/Chargers OVER 35

10* NCAAF Liberty Bowl TOP PLAY 

PLAY ON: Memphis/Iowa St OVER 57.5

10* NFL Vegas Insider TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Ravens/49ers OVER 46

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON Jags/Bucs OVER 43

10* NCAAF Pre-Christmas PLAY OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON: Arkansas St/N Illinois OVER 53.5

10* NFL Monday Night Football TOP PLAY

PLAY ON: Eagles/Seahawks OVER 45

10* NFL Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON: Vikings/Bengals OVER 40

10* NFL - Pats/Steelers TNF Top Play 

PLAY ON: Pats/Steelers UNDER 30.5

10* NCAAF Championship PLAY OF THE YEAR

PLAY ON: Alabama/Georgia OVER 55

10* NFL Bears/Vikings MNF VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON: UNDER 43

10* NFL Broncos/Bills VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON BRONCOS/BILLS OVER 47.5

10* NFL Falcons/Cardinals VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON FALCONS/CARDINALS OVER 43

10* NFL Bucs/Bills TNF VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON BUCS/BILLS OVER 43.5

10* NCAAF Utah/USC VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON UTAH/USC OVER 53

10* NCAAF - Miss St/Arkansas VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON MISS ST/ARKANSAS OVER 47.5

10* NCAAF S Miss/S Alabama VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON SOUTHERN MISS/SOUTH ALABAMA UNDER 51.5

10* NCAAF TCU/Iowa St VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON TCU/IOWA STATE OVER 52

10* NCAAF Big 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON OKLAHOMA/TEXAS UNDER 60.5

10* NFL Bears/Commanders VEGAS INSIDER

PLAY ON BEARS/COMMANDERS OVER 44

10* NFL Seahawks/Giants VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON SEAHAWKS/GIANTS OVER 47

10* NCAAF SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON TEXAS A&M/ARKANSAS OVER 54.5

10* Auburn/Texas A&M SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON AUBURN/TEXAS A&M OVER 51

10* NCAAF Boise St/SDST MWC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

PLAY ON BOISE ST/SAN DIEGO ST UNDER 46.5 

10* NFL Giants/49ers VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON GIANTS/49ERS OVER 43.5

10* NCAAF Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR 

PLAY ON COLORADO ST/COLORADO OVER 59

10* NFL Vikings/Eagles VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON VIKINGS/EAGLES OVER 49

10* NFL Lions/Chiefs VEGAS INSIDER 

PLAY ON LIONS/CHIEFS OVER 53 

10* NFL Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Cowboys/Bucs OVER 45.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 45.5 in Monday's NFC Wild Card showdown between the Cowboys and Bucs. I'm well aware that Tampa Bay beat Dallas by a score of just 19-3 during the regular-season. That was back in Week 1. 

I'm focused more on what I've seen from these two teams over the last 4-6 weeks of the regular-season. For Dallas, they have really had to rely heavily on their offense, as the defense that looked so good early on in the year has been exposed on several occasions. The OVER had cashed in 5 straight before they went UNDER in their last two. Thing is in Week 17 they played at the Titans who have no offense and were resting guys leading up to their big game vs the Jags in Week 18. Dallas then had a pretty meaningless game in Week 18 at Washington and it showed in their 6-26 loss. 

Tampa Bay's defense is good and does matchup well with their ability to stop the run, but Dak should be able to exploit this season for the Bucs. TB was great at holding bad offenses with average QBs in check, but they struggled against the more efficient QBs. 

As for the Tampa Bay offense, I think they showed a lot of good signs down the stretch. Brady threw for 411 yards in their division-clinching win over the Panthers in Week 17. I'm pretty confident the Bucs will move the ball in this one. I just think there's going to be more than enough scoring to get this game into the 50s. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

10* National Championship VEGAS INSIDER: TCU/Georgia OVER 63.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 63.5 in Monday's National Championship Game between TCU and Georgia. We saw all kinds of points being scored in the two Semifinal matchups with TCU beating Michigan 51-45 and Georgia knocking off Ohio State 42-41. I don't know if we will see this thing get into the 80's, but there should be no problem eclipsing the total of 63.5. 

TCU is simply built for high-scoring games. They have an elite offense and a sub-par defense. I don't see Georgia having any problems moving the ball up and down the field on this Horned Frogs stop unit. They were fortunate to only give up 45 points to the Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl. 

The TCU offense did show me something with how well they moved the ball against a very good Michigan defense. The same Wolverines defense that held a potent Ohio State offense to just 23 points, giving up only 3 points in the 2nd half. We just saw the Buckeyes put up 41 on Georgia's defense. Not to mention the Bulldogs gave up 30 to LSU in the SEC title game. I think TCU can easily get into the 30s and I expect Georgia to as well. Give me the OVER 63.5! 

10* NFL NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Panthers/Bucs UNDER 40.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 40.5 in Sunday's huge NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Bucs. 

I know Carolina just put up 37 points and 570 total yards in last week's 14-point win at home over the Lions, but that's not a very good Lions defense. It's also a Detroit defense that struggles to stop the run and this Panthers offense is built around their run game. 

Running the football on the Bucs will be a much more difficult task. Keep in mind the Panthers did run for 173 yards at home in their previous meeting with Tampa Bay and still only managed 21 points. 

Tampa Bay could only manage a field goal in that first matchup, as the game saw a mere 24 combined points. Things haven't gotten a whole lot better for the Bucs offense as the season has went on. TB has scored fewer than 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games with a 23-point showing against the Bengals being their highest output during this stretch. 

You add in 1st place in the NFC South being up for grabs and I just think we are going to have a playoff like atmosphere in Tampa Bay on Sunday. I think that only helps us, as I see both offenses playing more to not screw it up than taking a bunch of chances. Either way, I don't see this getting into the 40s. Give me the UNDER 40.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Raiders/Rams OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Raiders and Rams on Thursday Night Football. If the Raiders don't push for 30 points in this game, I would be shocked. This Las Vegas offense has quietly been playing well over the last month. In their last 4 games, they have scored on 45% of their possessions, which is the 3rd best mark in the league over that span. Carr is really playing well right now. In their 3-game win streak leading up to this game, he's thrown for 284 ypg, averaging just over 8.0 yards/attempt. 

He'll be facing a Rams defense that has given up at least 26 points in each of their last 4 games. One that is without what many consider to be the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald. They also don't have their second best defensive lineman in A'Shawn Robinson. I don't see how they slow down Josh Jacobs in this game. If they can't, that should only open up things more for Carr thru the air. 

It's not as promising when you look at the Rams offense, which is why I think we are getting such great value with this total. As hard as it is to believe, Baker Mayfield may actually start this game after being with the team for just a couple of days. I know Mayfield has been awful, but it's not like this is some massive drop off in talent from John Wolford or Bryce Perkins. I'll put some faith in McVay figuring out something that gives Mayfield a chance in this game. 

This is not a great Raiders defense and it's one that has struggled to take down the opposing quarterback. Las Vegas' 21 sacks is the 28th worst mark in the league. That's a big plus for Mayfield's chances. All we need here is a 27-17 type of game. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* Thurs. Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Bills/Patriots OVER 43.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 43.5 in Thursday's AFC East showdown between the Bills and Patriots. I just feel the total here should be closer to 48. I know this is a division matchup, but I see both offenses putting up points. 

It felt like Allen figured out this New England defense last year. He had 33 points and 428 total yards in the first meeting and then came back in the next matchup and put up 47 points and 482 total yards. 

Yes, Allen has not played at the MVP level we expect from him in his last few games. I do think he's dealing with some kind of injury to that elbow. However, this offense is far from broken. Bills are averaging 29.7 ppg, 414.7 ypg and 6.2 yards/play over their last 3 games. 

I'm also not convinced this Patriots defense is as good as what people think. Prior to giving up 33 points and 358 yards to the Vikings, the Patriots previous 7 games came against the following quarterbacks. Zach Wilson (twice), Sam Ehlinger, Justin Fields, Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff (without Amon St. Brown). Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up 27 on them with over 400 yards of offense and Lamar Jackson guided Baltimore to 37 points. This team has simply not played great defensively against top tier quarterbacks. 

As for the Pats offense, I definitely feel like it's got better as the season has went along. Mac Jones seems a lot more comfortable than he did a few weeks ago. I also think this Bills defense is hurting and is going to really miss Von Miller. Miller was a game wrecker for this defense. He led the team with 8.5 sacks. The next best is Greg Rosseau with 5 (only two other guys have 2 or more). Bad quarterbacks can look good when there's no pressure. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NCAAF Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Iowa St/TCU UNDER 48

I really like the UNDER 48 in Saturday's Big 12 shodown that has Iowa State going on the road to face TCU. I think the only real concern here is that the Cyclones don't show up given last week's 10-14 loss to Texas Tech ended any hope they had of getting to 6 wins and a bowl game. 

It's certainly a possibility and if that's the case we are probably in trouble. However, I feel pretty good about ISU not just throwing in the towel. Not against TCU. It would be one thing if TCU was 9-2 and needing this win to get to the Big 12 title game. The Horned Frogs are undefeated and ranked No. 4 in the country. I got to think ISU will be motivated here to put that perfect season to rest and really treat this game like it's their Super Bowl given it's the last time they will be on the field together. 

That to me is the key, because if the Cyclones defense shows up, there doesn't figure to be a lot of points scored in this game because this ISU defense is elite and their offense is at the other end of the spectrum. Cyclones have scored 21 or fewer points in more games than they have eclipsed that mark. I just don't see them doing a lot against this TCU defense. 

As for the Cyclones defense, I think they are better or at least equal to the Texas defense that held this TCU team to just 17 points and 284 total yards a couple weeks back. Give me the UNDER 48! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Lions/Bears OVER 48.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFC North showdown between the Lions and Bears. Chicago might be my favorite OVER team in the league right now. Justin Fields and the Bears offense has completely done a 180 from the start of the year. In their last 3 games Chicago is averaging 31.3 ppg and 376.3 ypg. 

This is an ideal matchup for the Bears offense, which is built around their running game, most notabely the running ability of Fields. Lions defense is not very good. Don't be fooled by them playing well last week against a bad Packers offense. Detroit is giving up 4.9 rush yards/play and 147 rushing yards/game on the season. 

While the Bears offense has turned into a bit of a juggernaut, the defense has become one of the worst. The trades of Quinn and Smith really hit hard and this defense has shown no ability to get off the field of late. Their defense is giving up 32.7 ppg, 360.3 ypg and 6.9 yards/play in their last 3 games. Not even some less than ideal conditions in Chicago are going to keep these two teams from putting up 50+ points. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

10* NCAAF AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Tulsa/Memphis OVER 61.5 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 61.5 in Thursday's American Athletic matchup between Tulsa and Memphis. I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing this number. Both of these teams have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Tulsa is giving up 33 ppg and 404 ypg this season and have allowed 36 ppg on the road. Memphis is giving up 31.6 ppg and 412 ypg. They have given up 40 ppg over their last 3.

The only two FBS teams Tulsa has held under 30 points, are Temple who is anemic on offense and Tulane, who plays extremely slow and probably should have had more than the 27 they scored given they had over 480 yards with 357 on the ground. Teams have been able to really do whatever they want against this defense. I don't see them slowing down this Memphis on the road. The Tigers are putting up 33.9 ppg and on average are scoring 8.2 ppg more than what their opponent has allowed. 

Memphis has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7. The only exception coming against Temple. Tulsa has scored 27 or more in 6 of their 9 games this season. 

These are also going to be two tired defenses, as both of these teams are playing this game on just 4 days of rest. Give me the OVER 61.5! 

10* NCAAF Tuesday MACtion VEGAS INSIDER: Ohio/Miami (OH) OVER 50.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Tuesday's MAC matchup between Ohio and Miami (OH). These two teams combined for 68 points in the Bobcats 35-33 win over the RedHawks a season ago. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a similar high-scoring game in the rematch, making this an easy play for me with a total in the low 50's. 

l just don't see Miami (OH) having an answer for Bobcats' quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has put up sensational numbers in 2022. Rourke is averaging over 300 yards/game thru the air with a 21-4 TD-INT ratio and a stellar 9.0 yards/pass attempt. His ability to throw the ball plays right into the weakness of this RedHawks defense, which is just not good at creating havoc in the passing game. 

On the flip side of this, I like Miami's offense to also have a lot of success throwing the football in this game. The RedHawks just recently got back starting quarterback Brett Gabbert, who was hurt in their opener against Kentucky. Gabbert has been a little rusty in his first two starts back, but will be up against a Ohio defense that has struggled to get stops this season. The Bobcats are giving up 33.2 ppg, 483 ypg and 6.5 yards/play. They have been especially bad against the pass, allowing opposing QBs to complete 66.3% of their attempts with a 8.3 average per attempt. Give me the OVER 50.5! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Vikings/Commanders OVER 43.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 43.5 between the Vikings and Commanders on Sunday. This to me is way too low a total for this matchup. I get Washington's offense hasn't been able to do much of late, scoring 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Thing is, those low offensive outputs have come against some pretty good defensive teams in the Colts, Packers, Titans, Cowboys and Eagles. Note that while they did only score 17 vs Tennessee, they had 342 passing yards in that game. 

Minnesota comes into this game at 6-1, but their early season success has all been a result of their high-powered offense. Not their defense. The Vikings come into this game scoring 24.7 ppg and have scored at least 23 points in all but one game (vs the Eagles). Their defense is not very good, giving up 383 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. They are especially bad vs the pass, as opposing QBs are completing 68.9% of their attempts against them. 

Simply put, this is a game where I think both offenses will be able to move the football and put points on the scoreboard. I like both of these teams to at the very minimum eclipse the 20-point mark and that should be more than enough to push us past this low total. Give me the OVER 43.5! 

10* NCAAF - Friday Night Total NO-BRAINER: Oregon St/Washington UNDER 54.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 54.5 in Friday's Pac-12 matchup between Washington and Oregon State. I just don't see this being a shootout. I know Washington has played in a lot of high-scoring games, but this Oregon State defense really matches up well with what the Huskies like to do offensively.

Washington is all about attacking teams thru the air. They come in averaging 379 passing yards/game. Passing on this Oregon State defense is not easy. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 55.6% of their attempts against the Beavers and that's against QBs that on average are completing 62.5% of their attempts. Mother Nature could also slow down the Huskies ariel attack, as there will be 15-20 mph with the real feel in the upper 30s. 

Oregon State on the other hand is going to establish the run and as long as they are within striking distance, I don't see them abandoning it. Beavers on average run 66 plays and 39 (59%) of those are runs. They are pretty good at it, averaging 5.0 yards/carry. I think they can move the chains on the ground, but I also think Washington's run defense is good enough to limit the explosive plays and create the negative plays to end drives. Give me the UNDER 54.5! 

10* NFL - Thursday Night MAX UNIT Top Play: Saints/Cardinals OVER 43.5 

I love the OVER 44.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, as we have the Saints visiting the Cardinals. There has been nearly no offense in these Thursday matchups the last two weeks. First it was the 12-9 OT win for the Colts against the Seahawks in Week 5. Then we saw the Commanders prevail 12-7 last week. I believe that is definitely playing into the number being much lower than it should be.  

I also think the total here is being impacted by what we saw last week with Arizona's offense in a 9-19 loss at Seattle. It's not so much they lost, but the fact that the Cardinals couldn't even reach double-figures against a Seattle defense that came into that game viewed as one of the worst defensive teams in the league.  

It is worth noting that Arizona did have multiple drives into Seahawks territory that resulted in no points. The offense also figures to get a HUGE boost this week with the return of DeAndre Hopkins. I also think the Saints defense is being way overvalued. New Orleans has not played well at all on that side of the ball the past few weeks. In their last 3 games the Saints are giving up 30.0 ppg, 362.7 ypg and 6.8 yards/play. 

I also think people are sleeping a bit on this Saints offense because it's Andy Dalton at quarterback. New Orleans has scored 25 or more in 3 straight games. Arizona is giving up a staggering 28.0 ppg, 395 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Give me the OVER 43.5

10* NCAAF - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Arizona/Oregon OVER 69.5

I love the OVER 69.5 in Saturday's late night action out of the Pac-12 between No. 12 Oregon and Arizona. I'm not so sure the books can set a total high enough for this one. If it wasn't for the fact that the Ducks scored just 3-points in that ugly opening loss to Georgia, I think it would be at the very least in the mid 70s. 

In the 4 games since getting completely shutdown by the defending champs, Oregon has put up 70 points and 604 total yards against Eastern Washington, 41 points and 439 yards on BYU, 44 points and 624 yards on Washington State (Cougars have allowed 20 or fewer in every other game) and 45 points and 515 yards in last week's blowout win over Stanford. 

It feels like anything less than 40 points against this Arizona defense would be a disappointment. In the Wildcats two conference games, they have allowed 49 points to Cal and 20 points to Colorado. In Cal's 3 other games vs a FBS opponent they have scored a combined 46 points. The Buffaloes 20-points they scored on the Wildcats was a season-high. Arizona is giving up 31.2 ppg vs teams who on average score 24.9 ppg. 

They key here is think the Wildcats have the talent at quarterback and skill positions to put up enough points to push this thing well past the mark. Arizona has scored at least 31 points in all but one game against a very good Mississippi State defense. They are averaging 481 ypg and 6.6 yards/play. 

Oregon's defense has been solid in their 3 home games, but they gave up that 49 points on a neutral site to Georgia, which is looking worse and worse with how the Bulldogs have struggled offensively of late and 41 at Washington State. This could very well end up being the highest scoring game on the board this Saturday. Give me the OVER 69.5! 

10* NCAAF Pac-12 Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Washington/UCLA UNDER 65.5

I love the UNDER 65.5 in Friday's Pac-12 showdown between No. 15 Washington and UCLA. Both of these teams come into this game with a perfect 4-0 record. The big reason we are seeing such a big total is the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. The Huskies are scoring 44.0 ppg and 531 ypg, while the Bruins are putting up 41.8 ppg and 508 ypg. 

I don't think either of these teams will be able to sustain these numbers. Yes, Washington has two wins over Power 5 teams in Michigan State and Stanford, but both of those teams are bad defensive teams. Michigan State gave up 34 points and 508 total yards last week at home against Minnesota. USC had 505 yards and 41 points against the Cardinal and then only managed to score 17 with 357 total yards in 3-point win at Oregon State. 

As for UCLA's great offensive numbers, it's come against a super soft schedule. Bruins 4 games have come against Bowling Green, Alabama St, S Alabama and Colorado. Those teams combined are giving up an average of 38.1 ppg. 

The other big thing here is these two defenses are performing well. Washington is only giving up 19.0 ppg, 302 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. UCLA is allowing 18.0 ppg, 301 ypg and 4.4 yards/play. 

Another thing that could work against the Huskies offense, is the fact that this will be Washington's first road game of 2022. 

These two are going to need a minimum of 10 scores (9 TDs and 1 FG is 66 points) to get past this number. I just don't think the red zone efficiency is going to be at that level. Give me the UNDER 65.5! 

10* NFL Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Chiefs/Colts OVER 50

I love the OVER 50 in Sunday's Week 3 NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Colts. I'm actually shocked this number is as low as it is. I know it was the defense that stepped up and really carried KC to a victory last week in their big game against the Chargers, but there might not be a better top to bottom defensive unit in the NFL than what LA has on the field. 

Mahomes was still able to complete 24 of 35 attempts for 235 yards and 2 TDs. Good but not great numbers. I expect the offense to resemble more of what we saw in their 44-21 win over the Cardinals in Week 1. A game in which they had 488 total yard with Mahomes throwing for 360 and 5 scores. 

Especially after watching how poorly the Colts looked in last week's 24-0 loss to the Jaguars. They let Trevor Lawrence complete 25 of 30 attempts. They are going to have no answer for this Chiefs offense. 

The key here is I do think the Colts will be able to at least score enough here to make it somewhat competitive. Getting shutout by the Jags is bad, but the Colts were very thin in that game at receiver. They are getting guys back at that spot and will be facing a Chiefs defense that could be a little flat after that huge game against the Charger and Tom Brady and the Bucs looming next week. KC also lost one of their better defensive players in linebacker Willie Gay to a 4-game suspension. I'm seeing like a 38-28 type of game here with the potential for even more scoring. Give me the OVER 50! 

10* NFL Monday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER: Vikings/Eagles OVER 50

I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Eagles. I think these are two of the better offensive teams in the league. Both looked great in Week 1. 

Philadelphia put up 38 in Week 1 on the road against a much improved Lions team and didn't score a point in the 4th quarter after taking their foot off the gas up 38-21. Eagles had 216 rushing yards and 243 thru the air. I know the Vikings defense looked good in Week 1 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but a lot of that had to do with Green Bay not playing any of their guys in the preseason. 

As for the Vikings offense, they scored 23 points, had 395 total yards and averaged 6.5 yards/play against a top tier Packers defense. Minnesota figures to be a Top 10, maybe Top 5, offense this season under new head coach Kevin O'Connell. Eagles defense gave up 35 points and 386 total yards to an average Lions offense. Minnesota should be able to do as they please in this one. Give me the OVER 50! 

10* NFL Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Panthers/Giants OVER 43

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 43 in Sunday's matchup between the Giants and Panthers. I came into this season really excited about the potential of New York's offense, as I expect some pretty significant improvements now that Brian Daboll as their head coach. They also added Mike Kafa as their OC, who comes over after serving as an assistant under Andy Reid in Kansas City. 

It was why I really like the OVER 43.5 in the Giants Week 1 game against Tennessee. Even with the Giants getting shutout in the 1st half of that game, we would have cashed the OVER had the Titans kicker hit a 47-yarder at the end of regulation. 

Considering that the Giants averaged 6.8 yards/play (3rd best mark of any team in Week 1 behind on the Chiefs and Bills) and the Titans averaged 6.0 yards/play (9th best), it's hard to believe we didn't get the OVER in that game. 

With that said, I'm not letting that outcome keep me from backing the OVER with the Giants in Week 2, as we see a mere total of 43. 

Much like the Giants in Week 1, Carolina's offense was basically a no show for the 1st half before coming alive in the 2nd half. Panthers had just 7 points going into the 4th quarter and finished with 24. I know Mayfield didn't play great, but that's a pretty good Browns defense. He should have a much easier time against this Giants defense. I also would expect a little more out of Christian McCaffrey. 

As for the Panthers defense, I think they are solid on that side of the ball, but we did see them give up 26 points to the Browns who don't offer much of a threat in the passing game with Brissett at quarterback. Daniel Jones will be a much tougher challenge to stop and I could see the Panthers having a difficult time containing Saquon Barkley, which is going to only make it easier on Jones with the defense forced to play the run. Give me the OVER 43! 

10* NCAAF - SEC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH: S Carolina/Arkansas OVER 52.5

I will take my chances with the OVER 52.5 in Saturday's SEC matchup between Arkansas and South Carolina. This to me is just way too low a total for a game involving the Razorbacks. 

Arkansas is absolutely loaded on the offensive side of the ball and it starts with sophomore quarterback KJ Jefferson, who somehow is still flying a bit under the radar. Jefferson is special and the biggest reason why the Razorbacks went 9-4 last year after not winning more than 4 games in any of the previous 4 seasons. It also helps he's playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. Arkansas put up 30.9 ppg and 442 ypg last year and will easily top that in 2022. 

They scored 31 points with 447 yards against Cincinnati in the opener. I know the Bearcats lost some guys on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from a pushover for the Arkansas offense. I don't see South Carolina's defense being able to stop them, especially with the game in Fayetteville. 

The key here is I also think South Carolina's offense is poised to put up some points in this game. They gave up 438 yards (325 passing) to a Cincinnati offense that lost one of their all-time best QBs in Desmond Ridder, as well as their top back and leading receiver. 

Both starting safety Jalen Catalon and starting nickel corner Myles Slusher were hurt in that game and did not return. Good chance neither play on Saturday. 

South Carolina's offense wasn't overly impressive in their win against Georgia State, but remember they got former Oklahoma starter Spencer Rattler under center. Rattler can spark big plays and quick scores and he's also one that will take chances and give the ball away, setting up short fields and quick scores for the other side. Give me the OVER 52.5! 

10* NFL Thursday Night VEGAS INSIDER: Bills/Rams OVER 52

My money is on the OVER 52 in Thursday's highly anticipated season opener between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. I don't see these two teams have any problem eclipsing this number. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if this thing went well into the 60s. 

These were two of the best offenses in the league last year. The Rams finished 9th in the NFL in total offense (372.1 ypg) and T-7th in scoring (27.1 ppg). Buffalo has the No. 5 ranked total offense (381.9 ypg) and the No. 3 ranked scoring offense (28.4 ppg). 

I don't see any letdown coming from Josh Allen and the Bills offense in 2022. I also love the matchup for Buffalo in this one. The Bills are a pass-first offense and the Rams are much better suited at stopping the run. LA was 22nd in the league last year defending the pass (241.7 ypg). 

The big concern some might have is the health of Matthew Stafford's elbow and LA facing what many believe to be a strong Bills defense. I personally think the injury is being a bit overblown. If it was serious he wouldn't be out there in Week 1.

I also think Buffalo's defense comes in way overrated. When you look at who who they played and who was on the field when they played their opponents, the Bills caught a lot of breaks. They are also going to be starting the season without Tre-Davious White.

Look for new Rams wide out Allen Robinson to play a big role, as I feel he was one of the more underrated signings in the entire offseason. Give me the OVER 52! 

10* NCAAF Friday Night TOTAL NO-BRAINER: TCU/Colorado OVER 55

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 55 in Friday's Power 5 non-conference matchup between TCU and Colorado. I don't think these two teams will have any problem getting to 60 points and it could even go into the 70s. 

A big reason I'm so high on the OVER is I think people are really sleeping on this TCU offense. The Horned Frogs brought in Sonny Dykes to replace Gary Patterson and Dykes knows how to put up points. In his last 3 years at SMU, the Mustangs put up monster numbers. Even better is Dykes was able to bring along his OC Garrett Riley. 

These two will take over an offense that returns 10 starters from a unit that averaged a misleading 28.7 ppg. I say misleading, because they averaged a healthy 436 ypg (17 more ypg than they had in 2017 when they averaged 33.6 ppg. 

They got options at quarterback with the return of starter Max Duggan and backup Chandler Morris, who transferred in from Oklahoma last year (had 461 passing yards vs Oklahoma and could overtake Duggan). 

They get back a stud RB in Kenre Miller, return their top 4 pass catchers and on paper have one of the best O-lines in the country. I think they easily average a TD more a game and really should feast on what figures to be a sub-par Colorado defense. 

They key here is I think the Buffaloes will also be able to generate some offense. Colorado isn't elite offensively, but should be greatly improved over the unit that averaged just 18.8 ppg and 257 ypg last year. TCU's defense will be improved, but they are in the first year of a new system and gave up 34.9 ppg and 462 ypg in 2021. Give me the OVER 55! 

50* (CFB) - Non-Playoffs BOWL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 54.5) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark with this total. I get that Air Force only gave up 19.1 ppg and 289 ypg on the season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule. The Falcons didn't play a single Power 5 opponent in non-conference play. 

The two best offenses they faced in MWC play were arguably Utah State and Nevada. They lost 45-49 to the Aggies and won 41-39 over the Wolfpack. 

Louisville is without a couple wideouts, but they got a top tier talent at quarterback in Malik Jackson and he's more than enough weapons to work with. 

Not only do I think the Cardinals will score a bunch, but I don't think the Louisville defense will be able to slow down Air Force's triple-option. They weren't a good run defense and have not seen an offense like this in a long time. Give me the OVER 54.5! 

50* (CFB) - Mizzu/Army MAX UNIT Top Play (Over 53) 

I think we have had a bit of perfect storm that has created a golden opportunity to play the OVER. Army is coming off that defensive battle against Navy and I just think the perception here is that with a team like the Black Knights that want to run, run and run some more, there's not going to be as much scoring. 

That can be the case if they are playing a team that can stop the run, but that's not the case here. Missouri has one of the worst run defenses in the country. They finished the year giving up 229 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry vs the run. We saw Army rush for 416 yards and score 56 points against Wake Forest, so it's not like they can't score a bunch with that offense. 

The other big thing here is Missouri's top running back Tyler Badie (led SEC in rushing) won't play and they are going to give freshman Brady Cook his first start. Not having Badie is a big deal, but I do think the Tigers got some decent backs who can step in and have success, as the Mizzu o-line should have an edge against the Army defensive front. 

As for Cook, he's played sparingly and impressed. He played in their blowout loss against Georgia and completed 14 of 19 attempts. You got to think they are going to let him sling it in this game and he's going to have to with how much the defense figures to struggle. Give me the OVER 53! 

50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Chargers MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 51.5) 

I love the UNDER on Thursday Night Football this week. Even after all the struggles we have seen from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense this year, the public still sees this team as a this offensive juggernaut. Largely because of what we saw from this offense the last two years. 

I know they just put up 48 points in a blowout win over the Raiders this past Sunday, but a lot of that was A) Las Vegas turned the ball over 5 times, B) the Raiders refusal to play the cover-2 shell that has given Mahomes so much trouble. KC only had 372 total yards. Mahomes completed 20 of 24 but for just 258. 

This Chiefs offense is so much more methodical. There's not near as many explosive plays and quick scoring drives. At least, against every other team not named the Raiders. The Chargers aren't stupid. They will play the cover-2 shell and make Mahomes dink and dunk and force Andy to run it more than he wants. 

The other big thing with KC and the UNDER is the play of their defense. You can say what you want about who the schedule has dealt them of late, but you can't be a bad defense and go 3 straight games in today's NFL and give up fewer than 10 points. It's night and day from what this defense looked like to start the year. 

Chris Jones will be out, which is a huge part of that defense. However, I think it's even bigger that the Chargers are down starting tackle and by far their best linemen in Rashawn Slater. Frank Clark has been wreaking havoc off the edge and Melvin Ingram is a force on the other side. I think that pressure combined with one of the most underrated secondaries in the NFL will make it really hard on Herbert and that Chargers offense to do a whole lot. Give me the UNDER 51.5! 

50* (CFB) - PAC-12 Oregon/Utah TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 58.5)

I love the UNDER 58.5 in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game between Utah and Oregon. These two teams just played a couple weeks ago in Utah. The Utes embarrassed the Ducks 38-7, ending all hope for Oregon to make the College Football Playoff. 

As good as Utah looked in that win, you can't underestimate how much of an advantage they had playing that game at home. I think we are going to see a much better effort defensively from Oregon in the rematch, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I also think that these are two teams that want to establish the run. Utah ran it 50 times in the win over the Ducks a couple weeks ago and Oregon's a team that averages close to 40 rush attempts per game on the season. 

I just think it's going to be a defensive battle with both teams struggling to not only sustain drives, but finish them off in the red zone with touchdowns. Give me the UNDER 58.5! 

50* (NFL) Cowboys/Saints MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 47.5) 

I'm not going to lie, I was hoping for a little better injury news for the Saints, especially on the offensive line at the two tackle positions. Either way, I still think this game will go over the total. 

The biggest thing you got to remember with the Saints offense is that they are going up against an overrated Cowboys defense. Yes, Dallas forces a lot of turnovers, but they also rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. I also think having Taysom Hill gives that offense some life and his mobility will be crucial with that Cowboys pass rush up against a depleted Saints o-line. 

I also think there's a chance we don't need New Orleans to do a lot. I really think this Cowboys offense could put up 40+. I don't think this Saints defense is anywhere close to as good as what they get credit for. Their secondary is awful and they are up against one of, if not the, best passing attacks in the league. I also think this Cowboys offense is dying to make a statement after the poor showings and injuries they have had to encounter the last few weeks. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

50* (NFL) Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 47.5) 

I love the UNDER 47.5 in Sunday's big NFC North showdown between the Packers and Vikings. I know Green Bay has an all-time great at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers, but their offense has been far from elite in 2021. The Packers are 19th in scoring at just 21.6 ppg and 20th in total offense at just 339.4 yards/game. Let's also not forget they are down their top back in Aaron Jones, have lost their top tight end in Robert Tonyan, could be without wideout Allen Lazard and have some injuries up front on the offensive line. 

The thing with Green Bay is they haven't needed their offense to be great to win games because their defense has been so good. They are making good quarterbacks look average at best. Just look at what they have done in their last 3 games against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. It will be no different here against Kirk Cousins and what I think is a very overrated Vikings offense. '

Green bay hasn't had a game see more than 47 points since the calendar turned to October (7 straight games). Give me the UNDER 47.5! 

50* (NFL) - Rams/49ers MAX UNIT MNF Top Play (Under 50.5) 

I want nothing to do with the spread in this game. Rams look like the obvious choice at -3.5, but the obvious play in a prime time game never seems to go like you expect. I would much rather have a bet on the UNDER 50.5 for this division matchup. 

I just don't think this 49ers offense is very good. They have scored 21 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 and are up against a stingy Rams defense that has been really good against the run of laste. In LA's last 5 games they are giving up just 80.4 ypg on the ground. For San Francisco's offense to play well, they need to be able to run the ball to get to their play action in the passing game. 

On the flip side, I do think the 49ers have a solid defense. I know they have given up some points in a couple games here of late, but they allow the same 5.5 yards/play that the Rams do and you could argue that SF has played the harder schedule. I also think the loss of Robert Woods is huge, as it figures to take some time for Odell Beckham Jr to learn the Rams offense. The 49ers also have a great understanding of what McVay and that offense wants to do. 

UNDER is 21-7 in the Rams last 28 as a favorite and 11-4 in their last 15 off an ATS loss. UNDER is also 4-1 in the 49ers last 5 as an underdog. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* (NFL) - Giants/Chiefs MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* (NFL) - NFC South TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) 

I love the UNDER 50.5 in Sunday's big NFC South matchup between the Bucs and Saints. I just have a hard time seeing this being a shootout. In fact, I think it's going to be a struggle for both teams offensively. 

Tom Brady has been great, but almost all of their high point totals have come against bad defenses. They had 48 against the Falcons, 45 against the Dolphins and 38 vs the Bears. While Chicago's defense is horrible, that was just all turnovers by the Bears offense. Only 1 of TB's 6 scoring drives were more than 50 yards with 4 of the 5 needing 40 or less yards to reach the endzone. 

I think with Antonio Brown still out and Gronk likely either sidelined or playing at less than 100%, it's going to be hard for Brady and that offense to sustain drives against this Saints defense. 

On the flip side of this, it's no secret that Sean Payton has zero desires of letting Jameis Winston throw it 40+ times per game. That's not going to change just because the Bucs are banged up in the secondary. Their whole game plan is going to be to ride Kamara and do what they can to eat up clock and limit the possessions for Brady and that Bucs offense. 

Unless we get an uncharacteristic amount of turnovers or the Saints defense somehow gets exposed, this thing is going to finish in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 66.5) 

I love the OVER 66.5 in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between Oklahoma and Texas Tech. I'm shocked the number here isn't in the 70's. I think some of that has to do with Oklahoma's lackluster performance this past Saturday against Kansas, but I'm not one that's going to read a lot into the Sooners not playing their best against the worst team in the conference. 

If anything I think that's a positive here, as it's going to make Oklahoma that much more motivated to get off to a strong start offensively in this game. I also think you got to look at what Oklahoma has done as a whole since Caleb Williams has replaced Spencer Rattler at quarterback. 

He was 100% the reason they were able to rally from that huge deficit in their 55-48 win over Texas and the very week he guided this team to 52 points in a win over TCU that saw 83 combined points. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all, if Oklahoma put up 50+ in this game. We have already seen Texas Tech give up that number twice, as Texas scored 70 on them and TCU had 52. 

Even if Oklahoma were to only get to 40, we would only need 27 from Tech to get the OVER and the Red Raiders are scoring 34.3 ppg and the fewest they have scored in any game all season is 23. This is also not a very good Sooners defense and the fact that KU was able to put up 23 points with over 400 yards of offense is probably the biggest takeaway you should take from that game. Give me the OVER 66.5! 

50* (CFB) - Big Ten TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 50.5) 

I was shocked when I saw this total in the 50s, but I guess I'm not shocked when you look at the offensive numbers that these two teams have put up. Michigan State is scoring 34.3 ppg, 452 yards/game and 7.0 yards/play, while Michigan comes in at 37.7 ppg, 443 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. 

We can start to uncover the value when we look at just conference games. If you only focus on Big Ten opponents, Michigan State is scoring just 28.0 ppg, 398.5 ypg and 6.6 yards/play, which Michigan goes down to 30.8 ppg, 389.0 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. 

The other big thing here is the schedule. Both Michigan and Michigan State have played very favorable schedules to this point. The Wolverines are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. They did score 38 against the Badgers, but only had 365 yards and it was a 20-10 game going into the 4th quarter. The Spartans are 4-0 in Big Ten play with wins over Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers and Indiana and they only managed to score 23 vs the Cornhuskers and 20 last time out vs the Hoosiers. 

These are also two offensive teams that want to run the football and are going up against two defenses that have been really good at stopping the run. Michigan is only giving up 3.6 yards/carry and Michigan State is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. 

I just think in a game of this magnitude, both teams are going to be a little more conservative out of the gate and all the running for 3-4 yards is going to eat up the clock and keep this thing in the low 40s. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* (NFL) - Bucs/Eagles MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 52) 

I love the OVER 52 in tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bucs and Eagles. I already think there's an edge to the OVER in these Thursday games, but this matchup we have in Week 6 has shootout written all over it. 

I'm extremely confident that Tom Brady and the Bucs are going to score and score a lot. Not only do they have the best to ever do it at quarterback, but they got one of the best set of skill players in the league. I also think we have seen when Tampa Bay gets matched up with a poor defense they aren't afraid to run it up. They put up 48 on the Falcons and 45 last week against the Dolphins. 

Philly's defense isn't horrible, but their strength is their defensive line and it's just not going to be a big factor in this game. Not only do the Bucs have a pretty good offensive line, few are better than Brady at getting it to the open guy before the pressure gets home. 

Eaglys have faced two offenses that are similar in the Cowboys and Chiefs. Both Dallas and Kansas City did whatever they wanted. Cowboys put up 41 and the Chiefs scored 42. Would not shock me at all if TB had 40+ in this game. 

The other big key here is the Bucs aren't an elite defense by any means. I know they only gave up 17 in each of their last two games, but that was against two bad offenses. One led by a rookie in Mac Jones and the other a subpar veteran in Jacoby Brissett. Jalen Hurts should be able to make some plays and I feel pretty good about the Eagles scoring at least 24 in this one. Give me the OVER 52! 

50* (CFB) - App St/Lafayette MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 57) 

I like the UNDER 57 in Tuesday's Sun Belt action between Appalachian State and Louisiana Lafayette. This is a pretty big matchup in the Sun Belt. Most had these two teams picked to win their respective divisions and meet up in the conference title game. Both are off to a strong 4-1 start and are undefeated in conference play. More times than not, big games are lower-scoring than expected. 

I also like how these two teams matchup. Both teams offensively want to establish the run game. Ragin' Cajuns run in 54% of the time and the Mountaineers rush it 57% of the time. Lafayette also likes to play at a slower pace (T-70th in plays/game). 

While these aren't elite run defenses, I think both are a little better vs the run than what people think. App State's numbers are solid. They only give up 118 ypg and 3.6 ypc. However, that's come against teams who average 151 ypg and 4.2 ypc. Lafayette's numbers look a lot worse. They are giving up 171 ypg and 4.1 ypc. However, that's come against teams averaging 190 ypg and 4.8 ypc. Ragin' Cajuns should also get a boost defensively playing at home. 

UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 45 in a 24-21 Lafayette win. Neither team sniffed 300 yards of offense. Cajuns ran it 45 times to 24 pass attempts. Mountaineers ran it 49 times to 21 pass attempts. Just don't see enough possessions to surpass this number. Give me the UNDER 57! 

50* (NFL) - Colts/Ravens MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 46.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 46.5 between the Ravens and Colts on Monday Night Football. Both offense figure to have a hard time putting up points on the board. Indy's offense is stuck in neutral with Carson Wentz. The Colts are averaging just 20.8 ppg, 326 ypg and 5.2 yard/play. Numbers that really look bad when you consider the 4 opponents they have played are giving up on average 26.3 ppg, 410 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. 

Don't expect this Colts offense to figure it out on the road against a strong Ravens defense. Last two times out, Baltimore has held the Lions to 17 and the Broncos to 7. 

On the flip side of this, the Colts defense is well suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. The biggest thing to slowing down Baltimore is keeping Jackson from running wild. Colts are built to do that. Indy comes in giving up just 331 ypg. 

These two teams played last year and combined for just 34 points with a total of 47.5. UNDER has cashed in 9 of Wentz's last 14 starts. UNDER is also 19-5 in the Ravens last 14 at home off a win by 14 or more and 29-15 in Indy's last 44 off a win as a road dog. Give me the UNDER 46.5! 

50* (NFL) - Raiders/Chargers MNF Vegas Insider TOP PLAY (Over 51.5) 

I think the game itself is a coin flip, and there's just no value with the spread at Chargers -3. Good news is I do think we are getting a pretty good price here on the total. I see both offenses being able to move the ball at will in this one and just don't think 51.5 is near enough. 

These are two of the Top 3 passing offenses in the NFL. Derek Carr and the Raiders lead the league at 379.5 ypg. The next best is Brady and the Bucs at 327.5 ypg. The Chargers are 3rd at 307.3 ypg. 

I know we are just 3 games into the season, but there's no reason to doubt the big offensive numbers by Carr and the Raiders. It's not like they have paid cupcakes. They have played one of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers (on the road) and two above average units in the Ravens and Dolphins.

Carr threw for 382 yards on 28 of 37 passing against Pittsburgh. In the Steelers 3 other games they have held Josh Allen to 270 yards, Joe Burrow to 172 and Aaron Rodgers to 248. 

While it's a little different story for Herbert and the Chargers, who have faced 3 of the worst defenses in the Football Team, Cowboys and Chiefs, they pass the eye test for me. Herbert is a top tier QB in this league. 

I also think they are facing another bad defense in the Raiders. Las Vegas is giving up just 24.0 ppg, but it's come against teams who on the season only average 19.5 ppg. I think them giving up 28 points at home to the Dolphins with a backup QB says a lot. They also gave up 330 yards to that awful Steelers offense. Herbert is by far the best QB they have faced in terms of passing and it's not really close. 

I think you can't ignore last year's games between these two teams. Both games finished with a combined score of 57 points. OVER is 6-2 in the Raiders last 8 on the road and 8-1 in their last 9 as a dog. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

50* (NFL) Eagles/Cowboys MNF Vegas INSIDER (Over 51.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 51.5 in Monday Night Football. Big NFC East matchup with the Cowboys hosting the Eagles. The OVER has been cashing left and right in these prime time games, outside of the Panthers/Texans game this past Thursday (HOU had backup rookie QB and CAR lost McCaffrey early). 

I just don't think the number here is enough for this Cowboys team. Dallas without question has one of the most explosive offenses in the league and I just don't think there's a defense out there that can keep them in check. I know they only had 20 points in their win at the Chargers in Week 2, but that was more of them just playing keep away from Herbert and that Chargers offense. 

I don't think they are going to play conservative here at home against the Eagles. Philly's defense has looked pretty good in their two games, but they have faced Matt Ryan and the Falcons and Jimmy G and the 49ers. The strength of this defense has been their d-line.

Not only does Dallas have better weapons in the passing game, they got an o-line that can more than hold their own. If Dak gets time, he will expose this Eagles secondary. 

On the flip side, I still don't have much faith in this Cowboys defense. Not only are they missing one of their best players in Demarcus Lawrence, they got all kinds of guys out for this game, especially on the d-line. Their depth is really going to be tested in this game. 

I look for Jalen Hurts to step up and go toe-to-toe with Prescott. I think they number in this game should be pushing 55. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

50* (NFL) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 49.5) 

I was shocked to see this total less than 50. The Lions are awful defensively and we have seen time after time this Ravens offense light it up with Lamar Jackson against bad teams. I know Jackson is questionable with an illness, but everything I've read is that he will be on the field Sunday. 

I'm confident we are going to get 30+ from the Ravens in this one and a good chance they hit the 40-point mark. That means all we need is 20-25 from the Lions to cash this ticket. I know Detroit only had 17 in their MNF loss to Green Bay, but they just couldn't get anything going in the 2nd half. 

The Ravens are a good defensive team, but they are a team that likes to blitz a lot, so I feel pretty good about Goff and that Lions offense having a few good drives in this game. You also have to factor in the perfect conditions playing in a dome. Give me the OVER 49.5! 

50* (CFB) Marshall/App State MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 60.5) 

I saw this total start to climb early in the week and quickly grabbed the UNDER 60.5 as soon as I saw the first book go back the other way (why it's so important to be a long-term client, so you get the play as soon as it's published and don't miss out on better numbers). 

I just don't see these two teams going up and down the field the way you need to eclipse a number like this. It's really a prime example of how much more people focus on a team's offensive numbers than their defense. 

Marshall is averaging 43.7 ppg and 604 ypg. Impressive. However, they have played Navy, NC Central and East Carolina. They should have great numbers. It's going to be a whole lot tougher against a very good Appalachian State defense. The Mountaineers are giving up just 18.0 ppg and 349 ypg. That's with them playing a road game at Miami, FL. 

It's similar on the other side. Appalachian State is averaging 33.3 ppg and 446 ypg, but are actually underperforming if you take into account the teams they have faced are giving up on average 36.4 ppg and 480 ypg. The Mountaineers are also a team that wants to run the ball, which is great for eating up the clock. Marshall's defense has also been pretty good, giving up just 19.7 ppg and 379 ypg. 

I also think you got to put some decent stock into last year's game between these two teams, which ended in a 17-7 Marshall win. The Herd ran it 45 times to just 25 passes and App State had 33 carries. Books were way off on that one too, as the total was 59.5. Give me the UNDER 60.5! 

50* (NFL) - Lions/Packers MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 48.5) 

I'm going with the OVER 48.5 on Monday Night Football. I know some of the Lions' scoring against the 49ers came in the final minutes of regulation, but I was impressed with the unit. Jared Goff was way better than I anticipated. He had 338 yards and 3 scores. Detroit also ran for 116 yards and 4.8 yards/carry. 

They now face a Packers defense that had no answer for Jameis Winston and the Saints offense. New Orleans played keep away from Rogers and put up an impressive 5.4 yards/play. That same Saints offense could only put up 128 total yards and 3.0 yards/play this past Sunday against the Panthers. 

This too me all comes down to the Packers offense. I got some concerns, but I also think it's pretty safe to say that Rodgers and company will be a lot better than what they showed in Week 1. 

Detroit doesn't figure to be very good on that side of the ball. They let SF do whatever they wanted and that same 49ers offense really struggled on Sunday against the Eagles. 

Last year these two teams combined for 63 in the game at GB and 55 in the matchup in Detroit. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

50* (CFB) - Sharp Money TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 56.5) 

I think the fact that BC lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury has created some big time value on the OVER in Saturday's game against Temple. I just don't think the drop off to backup Dennis Grosel is as big as people might think. Grosel came in relief of Jurkovec in last week's 45-28 win over UMass and completed 11 of 14 for 199 yards. 

There's also last year's season finale at Virginia, where Grosel got the start for an inured Jurkovec. He was 32 of 46 (69.6%) for 520 yards and 4 scores. I don't see the Owls having any kind of answer for this BC passing attack. 

Don't be fooled by Temple's defense in their first two games. While they held Rutgers to just 365 total yards, the Scarlet Knights put up 61 on the Owls. Even an awful Akron team that didn't score a point until the 4th quarter against Auburn was able to put up 24 points. Let's also not forget that same Rutgers offense that shredded Temple had just 17 points and 195 total yards in their game against Syracuse last week. 

It's not out of the question here that BC could put up a 50 spot. I certainly think they can get to at least 40. That means we just need a little bit out of this Temple offense to cash a winner. 

I think they can. Boston College's defense isn't anything special. If UMass can score 28 against them, so can Temple. My numbers have this game at 64.5. That's a full 8 points of value we are getting. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 40.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 40.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Most are going to look at this matchup between NFC East rivals Washington and New York and think it will be low scoring.

Neither team was able to reach 20 points in Week 1, as the Football Team lost 16-20 at home, while the Giants scored just 13 in their 14-point loss at home to the Broncos. 

Not only that, Washington lost starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that will have him sidelined 6-8 weeks. 

What will get overlook, as it does every year, is the difficulty that comes with playing on just 3 days rest. It's an absolutely brutal turnaround for NFL teams to play on Sunday and then have to play on Thursday. It's just not enough time for these guys to recover. 

I believe that really has a negative impact on the defensive side of the ball. So much of what makes a great defense is energy and effort. Both teams figure to be lacking that. 

I also don't think these offenses are as bad as people think. While the Giants only scored 13 points, they were able to move the football against a really good Denver defense. New York had 314 yards and 19 first downs. They had 4 drives inside Denver territory that didn't result in any points. 

Washington's defense held the Chargers to 20 points. However, I think their defense is a bit overrated. They got a really good player in Chase Young, but as a whole their more middle of the pack in my eyes. LA did have 424 yards and 27 first downs in that game. 

As for the Washington offense and the Fitzpatrick injury, I don't think there's a huge drop off from Fitzpatrick to backup Taylor Heinicke. A number of guys on the Football Team voiced their vote for Heinicke to be the starting QB this year. 

All we basically need is for 5 TDs to be scored in this game. That should get us to 35. You got to think there's at least 2 field goals, which would put us to 41. Give me the OVER 40.5! 

50* (NFL) - Ravens/Raiders MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 50.5) 

I think the best bet on Monday Night Football is the UNDER 50.5. I just don't see this game getting into the 50s. 

Baltimore might have a MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson, but this is a run-first team. They were 1st in rushing in 2020 (191.9 ypg) and dead last in passing (171.2 ypg). I know Lamar might throw more out of necessity with all the injuries the Ravens have had at RB, but that's not playing to his strength. 

I also think that Baltimore offense is going up against an improved Raiders defense that has had several big additions at all 3 levels of the defense. They also are getting a new look under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Not to mention this should be an electric atmosphere in Las Vegas' new stadium with fans for the first time in a prime time game. That will fuel that defense. 

Baltimore did lose a top level corner in Marcus Peters, but they got some solid depth in the secondary and really bring back the entire core from last year's unit that ranked 6th against the pass and 8th against the run. 

The Raiders got some nice weapons at the skill positions and an okay QB in Carr, but I got big time concerns with an offensive line that will have 4 new starters after they traded away 3 of their best linemen in center Rodney Hudson, right tackle Trent Brown and right guard Gabe Jackson. I think they are in trouble against that front 7 of Baltimore. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 51)

I just don't love the side in this game. I don't trust Dallas, but don't want to lay it with Tampa Bay either. The better bet in this game is on the total and for these two go OVER the number of 51. 

It's really a no-brainer if you ask me. You got two of the most talented offensive teams in the NFL going head-to-head. 

Tom Brady and the Bucs offense got off to a slow start in 2020, but it didn't last long. After scoring a mere 3-points against the Saints in early November, Tampa Bay put up at least 24 points in each of their last 11 games, scoring 30+ in each of their 4 playoff games. 

The Bucs have their entire offense back. They finished last year 7th in total offense and 3rd in scoring. They should be even better the second go around together. 

It also doesn't hurt they will be facing one of the least talented defenses in the league in the Cowboys. Nothing Dallas did in the offseason screams they are going to be improved. 

It's going to be up to Dak Prescott and the offense to outscore teams to win. Something they are more than capable of doing. Dallas has a plethora of talent at wide receiver. While they have mentioned wanting to run more to help the defense, their strength is throwing the football. 

They also aren't going to have a choice against this Bucs defense. TB also brings everyone back on defense and last year they led the league in run defense, giving up 80.6 ypg. 

Even if the Cowboy's offense gets off to a slow start, they are built to play from behind and can score in the blink of an eye. I see a final score of something along the lines of TB 38 - DAL 28. That's more than two TDs than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 51! 

50* (CFB) - Non Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK (UNDER 60) 

I really like the UNDER 60 in Saturday's non-conference matchup between USC and San Jose State. The total here is suggesting a shootout, but I'm not convinced that will be the case. 

I know USC has a really good quarterback in Kedon Slovis, but he's got a lot of new faces it receiver. He gets back his top guy in Drake London, but his second and third favorite targets are gone and two guys that were expected to start are not expected to be available for this game. 

You also have to look at what they will be going up against. San Jose State went 7-1 and won the MWC title behind the play of their defense. The Spartans only gave up 19.9 ppg and 346 ypg last year and have 10 of their 11 starters back.

If they can just keep USC from going off for 40+, it's going to be hard for this to get to 60. That's because the Trojans are absolutely loaded on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker. 

For San Jose State to score, they are going to have to have a ton of big plays in the passing game. I just don't see it. They get back starting QB Nick Starkel, but he's got to make due without his top two targets from last year in Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker. Those two had 86 catches for 1,352 yards and 8 scores. Give me the UNDER 60! 

50* (CFB) UNC/Va Tech ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 64) 

I will take the UNDER 64 in Friday's ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia Tech. I think there's a couple factors that have the number here way too high. One of those being how high scoring last year's game was. The Tar Heels won 56-45 as the two put up over 100 points. 

The other is the perception of UNC and how potent are thinking their offense will be with Sam Howell back under center (talk he might be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft). 

I just don't see a repeat of last year. You got to remember that Va Tech had a number of defensive guys miss time because of injury or covid. They also were in the midst of a transition from legendary defensive coordinator Bud Williams. New offensive coordinator Justin Hamilton was behind the 8-ball from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hokies shaved over a TD off their 32.1 ppg they allowed last year. 

I also look at UNC's defense as being much improved. Tar Heels got 10 starters back from a very young unit that suffered through some growing pains. They got the size and speed to be one of the best defenses in Chapel Hill in more than a decade. 

As for Howell and the Tar Heels offense, there's no denying Howell's talents. It's not him that has me concerned about the UNC offense. It's the fact that the Tar Heels lost two 1,000 yards rushers, as well as their top two receivers (combined 1,783 yards, 14 TDs). I don't see this offense being near as potent in 2021, especially not early in the year. Give me the UNDER 64! 

50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 58.5) 

I love the OVER 58.5 in Thursday's matchup that has NC State hosting USF. I would be shocked if these two teams failed to hit 60 in this one. 

NC State is going to have a potent offense in 2021. I really like sophomore quarterback Devin Leary. He only made 3 starts last year before being lost for the season. He threw for 890 yards with a 8-2 TD/INT ratio in those 3 starts. They got everyone back at the skill positions and a veteran offensive line. 

That offense will be up against a Bulls defense that has a lot of question marks. South Florida couldn't stop anybody last year. They gave up 39.9 ppg and 441 ypg. That's with them holding the Citadel to a mere 6-points on 284 yards. They gave up over 200 ypg and 5.0 ypc against the run and opposing QBs completed 60% of their attempts. 

The big key here is I think USF is going to be able to put up a decent amount of points as well. Even with 10 starters back on defense, I got big time concerns with the Wolfpack on that side of the ball. They gave up 40+ points 4 times. 

As for the Bulls offense, I think they are going to be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 23.1 ppg and 365 ypg last year. They got one of the rising stars at OC in Charlie Weis Jr. The problem last year is it was the first year under a new staff and their just wasn't the proper time to implant the offense with the pandemic. We saw a bit of a flash of their potential in last year's finale, as they put up 46 points and nearly 650 yards (646) in a game against UCF. Give me the OVER 58.5! 

50* OLE MISS/INDIANA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 65) 

Whenever Ole Miss is involved it's almost always going to end up being a high-scoring game and I don't see any reason why this will be any different. I know Indiana lost starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but backup Jack Tuttle has had more than enough time to prepare for this game, as Indiana hasn't played since Dec. 5. 

More importantly, Tuttle won't have to do it all against this awful Ole Miss defense. Indiana has a big time running back to carry the load in Stevie Scott III, who will be up against a Rebels defense that allows 211 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. 

As for the Ole Miss offense, few teams have been able to slow down Lane Kiffin's attack. The Rebels averaged 40.7 ppg (allowed 40.3 ppg). They did so with a very balanced attack, as they averaged 218 rushing yards/game and 345 passing yards/game. 

The only two offense that the Hoosiers faced that are close to this Ole Miss attack is Penn State and Ohio State and they couldn't really stop either. The Nittany Lions put up 35 points on 488 yards, while the Buckeyes scored 42 and had over 600 yards of total offense. Give me the OVER 65! 

50* HAWAII/HOUSTON NEW MEXICO BOWL TOP PLAY (Over 59.5) 

I'm going to take the OVER 59.5 between Hawaii and Houston on Christmas Eve. I just don't see either team putting up of a fight on the defensive end. That's because I don't see either defense being able to slow down the run game.

Hawaii hasn't been able to stop the run all season. The Rainbow Warriors go into this game allowing 231 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. Houston is slightly better, allowing only 173 yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, but they will be without two of their best players in linebacker Grant Stuard and defensive end Payton Turner. Stuard is a massive loss as he's the one guy that you can always count on being around the ball. His 61 tacklers are 32 more than the next best player on this team. 

I know wind could be a bit of a factor, but I don't think it will be enough to keep these offenses from putting up points. When you can run the ball, your chances of finishing drives with TDs and not FGs goes up dramatically. I also think both teams are going to have to sell out on the run, which should leave some big opportunities in the pass game. Give me the OVER 59.5! 

50* RAVENS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 46.5) 

I love the UNDER in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between AFC North rivals Browns and Ravens. I think we are getting value here with the UNDER after Cleveland's game last week against the Titans, which saw a combined 76 points in the Browns 41-35 win. 

I know Baker Mayfield has looked great here of late, but let's not overlook the fact that his last two games have come against two of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Jags and Titans. I mean he was throwing to wide open guys against Tennessee. Baltimore isn't going to give them those easy looks and most importantly the Ravens have the front 7 that can contain the Browns ground game. 

The other big thing to note is that these two combined for 44 back in Week 1 with Baltimore scoring 38. With much colder conditions, a lot more tape on each team and winds expected to be blowing at close to 15 mph, I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to score 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5! 

50* GEORGIA/MIZZU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54) 

I'm a bit shocked the total here is this low, as I think both of these teams can and will be able to put points on the board this Saturday. This is not the same Georgia offense that we saw early in the year now that J.T. Daniels is at quarterback. 

Daniels made his first start two games ago against a good Mississippi State defense and completed 28 of 38 for 401 yards and 4 scores. While he only threw for 139 yards in last weeks game against South Carolina, he only had to attempt 16 passes. They still put up 471 yards, as they racked up 332 rushing yards. In his two games as a starter they are averaging 440 yards, well above their season average of 397. 

I see no reason why Georgia won't be able to put up a big number against Missouri's defense. The Tigers just allowed Arkansas to score 48 with 292 rushing yards and 274 passing yards. Really any time this Tigers defense has faced a capable offense they have struggled. They allowed 41 to Florida, 41 to LSU, 38 to Alabama and also 35 to a bad Tennessee offense. 

Georgia's defense is good but not elite like it has been or was expected to be this year. Their biggest weakness is stopping the pass and Missouri has racked up 380 passing yards in each of their last two games. I really think both teams will score in the 30s and all we really need is for one to hit this total. Give me the OVER 54! 

50* BC/VIRGINIA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54.5) 

I think these two are going to fly past the total of 54.5. Both of these teams have the ability to put up points. Virginia has scored at least 31 in each of their last 3 games. BC has scored 31 or more in each of their last two. 

Not only can both teams score, but both teams are pretty good at giving up points. The Cavaliers have allowed 38 or more in 4 games this season. The Eagles have allowed 27 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. They only exception coming against low life Syracuse. I think there's a good chance both teams score 30 in this one and we don't even need that. 28-27 would do the trick. 

OVER is also 9-2 in Virginia's last 11 home games and the average combined score in these 11 games is 63.6. Almost a full 10 points more than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 54.5! 

50* SEAHAWKS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 48.5) 

I wanted to take Seattle, but I just don't feel like laying a touchdown on the road with this Seahawks team. Seattle has lost each of their last 3 road games, two of which they went off as the favorite. 

The good news is, I see a ton of value with the OVER at less than 50. In Seattle's 5 road games 4 have seen a combined score of at least 54 points with 3 going for 63 or more. Only exception was at LA vs the Rams. 

It's a combination of how great this Seahawks offense is and how poor the defense has been. There's so much talent across the board with the Seattle offense and I just feel this Eagles defense is better suited to stop the run. 

I know Wentz has been awful and there's talk that Hurts is going to get a long look, I think they can get something going here at home against this Seattle defense. Seattle is giving up 30.4 ppg, 450 ypg and 6.5 yards/play on the road this season. Give me the OVER 48.5!

50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 53.5) 

I love the OVER 53.5 in Sunday's matchup between the Raiders and Falcons. I don't see a great defensive effort here from Las Vegas after that crushing loss the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. With that said, even in normal circumstances I would be high on this Atlanta offense against this Raiders defense. 

While I'm not expecting a great effort defensively, I do think Carr and that Raiders offense will come to play and they too will be up against a deflated defense in the Falcons, who couldn't stop Taysom Hill and the Saints last week. 

These are really two identical teams. Vegas is scoring 28.6 ppg and giving up 27.6 ppg. Atlanta is scoring 25.2 ppg and allowing 27.5 ppg. I think both teams hit the 30-point mark. Not only do we have ideal conditions with the game indoors, but these non-confernece matchups always seem to be a little higher scoring, as there's just not much familiarity with the two teams. 

Speaking to that, OVER is 7-0 last 2 seasons in non-conference games involving the Raiders. OVER is also 33-18 in Atlanta's last 51 after a road loss by 14 or more. Give me the OVER 53.5! 

50* GEORGIA/S CAROLINA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49) 

I really think people are sleeping on the Bulldogs right now. I think the perception is that because Georgia no longer has a clear path to the SEC East title and thus the playoffs, this team doesn't care. 

I get that expectations are sky-high with this Bulldogs' program, but I don't that this was like previous years in terms of hype. I mean Georgia didn't have their guy at QB to start the year. If J.T. Daniels (USC transfer) would have been ready from the start I think this team would have beat Florida and who knows against Alabama. 

Daniels finally got on the field last week and was spectacular, throwing for 401 yards and 4 TDs against Mississippi State. I get the Bulldogs aren't a great team, but they have put up pretty good defensive numbers this season. Either way, 400 yards and 4 TDs is impressive.

I see no reason to not keep letting Daniels chuck the ball around the field. There's nothing to lose for Georgia at this point. I really wouldn't be shocked at all if the Bulldogs flirted with this total on their own. South Carolina has allowed 48 or more points in 3 of their last 4. Give me the OVER 49!  

50* PURDUE/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 59.5) 

We will take our chances here with Minnesota and Purdue combining for at least 60 points in Friday's Big Ten action. While each of the last two games for the Gophers went UNDER, one was a result of their opponent not being able to score (Illinois) and last week it was Iowa's defense taking away the running game, as Minnesota managed just 7 points after scoring 40+ in each of their previous two games. 

The Gophers offense is much better when they run the ball, but note that last year they scored 38 on Purdue with just 92 rushing yards, as Tanner Morgan threw for 396 yards and 4 scores. Boilermakers had 31 points of their own, as the two combined for 69 points. 

OVER is also 37-17 in the Gophers last 54 at home off a game where they failed to cover and a dominant 22-8 in their last 30 as a home dog of 7 or less. Give me the OVER 59.5! 

50* N ILLINOIS/BALL ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 62) 

I know these are two defenses that have struggled to keep points off the scoreboard. Northern Illinois is giving up 44.4 ppg and Ball State is allowing 34.5 ppg. I just think the numbers are a bit inflated for Northern Illinois. 

The Huskies combined for 79 points in their opener against Buffalo, losing 49-30. However, the Bulls scored 3 defensive touchdowns. A game that was just 21-16 at the half turned into 49-16 in less than 20 minutes on the clock.

In last week's game against Central Michigan, it was 26-0 going into the 4th quarter before the two teams put up 24 to end up at 50. 

Given how much Northern Illinois struggles to score, I just don't see these two teams getting to 63 unless there's a bunch of crazy scores. 

Also, both of these teams like to run the ball and both offenses might be even more inclined to run in this game. There's expected to be crosswinds approaching 20 mph. This should help limit the possessions with fewer big plays thru the air. Give me the UNDER 62! 

50* IOWA/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 58) 

I firmly believe that Minnesota is going to be a great OVER team this year. I took the OVER 65 in their game last week at Illinois and it didn't cash, but they did get to 55 points and it was against arguably the worst offense in the Big Ten. 

Gophers did their part scoring 41 points on 541 total yards of offense. Minnesota is now averaging 36.3 ppg, 444 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. This is no shocker. This team averaged 34.1 ppg last year and returned 9 starters. 

It's the defense where they lost a bunch of talent and it showed in their first two games, as they gave up 49 to Michigan at home and 45 to Maryland on the road. I don't think it magically got better against Illinois. The Illini are just that bad offensively and they were missing some key guys. 

Iowa's offense put up 49 last week, but did only score 20 in their first two games against Purdue and Northwestern. I just think the Hawkeyes are going to be able to do as they please against Minnesota. Iowa's o-line should have their way and that's going to lead to a lot of big runs and plays down the field. 

As for the Hawkeyes defense. It's your typical Kirk Ferentz defense, but I don't think it's quite as good as we have seen the last couple of years. They should also open up/relax a little if the offense is able to move the ball at will. Give me the OVER 58! 

50* RAIDERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 56.5) 

I know the history of these two teams has seen a lot of UNDERS, but I absolutely love the OVER in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes and that Kansas City offense really struggled last week against the Patriots. They played about as poorly as we have seen them since Mahomes became the starter. 

The special players like Mahomes, always seem to bounce back from a bad game with one of their best. A motivated Mahomes should spell disaster for this Raiders defense. Oakland's giving up 30 ppg. They rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. Last year Mahomes scored 28 in a quarter against this defense in the first matchup and KC put up 40 in the next meeting. 

Key here is I expect Oakland to make a game of it. There's no question this Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for, but I just wonder if they aren't primed for a bit of a letdown here. They were clearly excited to play Week 1 against the Texans, then they had to carry them in a win at LA, after that it was Lamar and the Ravens and Belichick and the Pats. 

Even though the Raiders are a big rival, it's not as big when the teams aren't on the same level in talent. Not to mention they got a HUGE game on deck at Buffalo next week. Bills are clearly one of the top teams in the AFC and only one team gets that first round bye this year. That's a massive tie-breaker game for the No. 1 seed. Give me the OVER 57! 

50* PATS/CHIEFS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49) 

I was on the OVER in this game before it got postponed and moved to tonight. I still think it's the play. Yes, I know Cam Newton isn't playing for the Patriots and he's been great in the first 3 games. I just don't think it's going to impact the scoring as much as some might think. 

In fact, it could be a positive. With Cam there's a lot more QB runs, which would have allowed NE to try to eat up more clock and limit the number of times Mahomes got the ball. I also think this Chiefs defense is built for guys like Cam and Lamar. They can really make life miserable for a QB that wants to use his legs and really isn't a precision passer. 

All indications are that Hoyer will be the starter over Stidham. I like that, but still would like the over if they switched last second. 

As for the Chiefs, I think we finally saw their offense resemble what we thought it should look like in last week's complete beatdown against the Ravens. They put up 34 points on a great Baltimore defense and left plenty of points out there. Note Baltimore has allowed 39 points in their 3 other games. 

Belichick is a great defensive mind, but Mahomes has now seen this NE defense enough to know what to expect. Thing is Pats can get away with just his coaching against most teams, but the overall talent level is not great on that side of the ball. We saw Russell Wilson go 21 of 28 for 288 and 5 TDs against this defense a couple weeks ago. Mahomes might throw for 5 TDs, but should put up at least similar numbers. Give me the OVER 49! 

50* DOLPHINS/JAGUARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 47.5) 

I don't want anything to do with the side in this game. I know we didn't get the best number, but I still love the OVER 47.5. I'm a big OVER guy in these Thursday games on short rest, especially early in the season. Add in how much more scoring we are getting in 2020 because of the shorten offseason and no fans and these two should hit 50 with ease. 

Keep in mind everyone was calling for the UNDER last Thursday between the Browns and Bengals and that thing went flying past the total. As bad as these teams are, Fitzpatrick and Minshew are two guys that can sling it. They will both be up against an awful pass defense. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

50* PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 44.5) 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in this one. I got nothing but respect for Bill Belichick and his ability to coach. He's going to get the most out of what he can. It's why one of my biggest plays in Week 1 was on the Pats -6.5 at Miami. 

I'm not saying Russell Wilson is going to shred this NE defense, but I do think Seattle will be able to move the chains early and often. I know Atlanta is not a top tier defensive team, but putting up 38 on the road in Week 1 against a team like that is saying something. 

The other big thing that I think might be getting overlooked is we saw Seattle throw the ball a lot more on early downs. Something so many have been begging them to do for years. It puts the ball in Wilson's hands more and that's huge. I don't think they do that in Week 1 and just go back to pounding the rock in Week 2.

On the flip side of all this is Cam Newton. Everything so far has been positive with Newton and I thought he played really well in Week 1. He was an efficient 15 of 19 passing (no interceptions). He also showed he's willing to run (75 yards on 15 attempts), which is how he won the MVP a few years ago. 

Seattle's defense isn't what it once was. They gave up over 500 yards to the Falcons in Week 1. Atlanta had 3 different players catch 9 passes and all 3 had over 110 yards. I think Newton shows out in Prime Time and this thing turns into a bit of a shootout. Give me the OVER 44.5! 

50* BENGALS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 43.5)

If you have been following my NFL for awhile, you know that I'm pretty big on the OVER in these Thursday night games. People just haven't caught on to how much the lack of rest impacts the play on the defensive side of the ball. 

Factor in how bad the Browns and Bengals looked offensively in Week 1 and I think we are getting big time value with the total at 43.5. I know Cleveland has Garrett, but the Browns defense is no where near as good as the front Cincinnati last faced in the Chargers. Burrow also flashed some in that game and you have to like a guy that makes plays when it matters late. 

As for the Browns poor showing, they just went up against a really good Baltimore defense. Cleveland was able to run on the Ravens and should move the chains on the ground against a Bengals defense that won't have their best guy up front in Geno Atkins. Cleveland also has a bunch of guys hurt on defense. Play the OVER 43.5! 

50* STEELERS/GIANTS MNF MASSACRE (Under 45)

I really like the UNDER 45 in the early Monday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and Giants. 

We know the Steelers defense is going to be good. It carried them last year and just felt like it kept getting better. They were outstanding against the run and should be again. They tied with NE allowing a league-low 7 rushing touchdowns. I think they can take away Barkley and I don't see Daniel Jones having a big day behind an offensive line that has 3 new starters. 

As for the Steelers offense, there's a lot of optimism with the return of Big Ben. I just don't think he's going to be sharp in his first game back. I certainly don't think they are going to be looking to air it out.

I also think people could be sleeping some on the Giants defense. Most just remember how bad it was last year. They added 3 big pieces, including corner James Bradberry and defensive back Logan Ryan. Give me the UNDER 45! 

50* CLEMSON/LSU CHAMP GAME PLAY OF THE YEAR (UNDER 68.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 68.5. I was all over the UNDER in the Clemson/Ohio State semifinal matchup and I see this as a very similar matchup, yet we are getting almost a touchdown more to work with as that total was 62. 

I think the 16 days off between games is a big advantage for the defenses, especially when you factor in the two outstanding defensive coordinators that these two teams have. Not to mention the talent on the defensive side for both sides. 

Another thing that I think gets overlooked is the pressure of this game and how the nerves can play into the outcome. I think both teams will be cautious to make a mistake early and they really can't afford any letdowns to eclipse a total like this, as they have average more than 17 points a quarter to eclipse this mark. Give me the UNDER 68.5! 

50* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 50.5)

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 50.5 in the big NFC Wild Card matchup between the Saints and Vikings. I get the Saints come into this game on an offensive tear, as they scored 34 or more in each of their last 4 games, but I just don't see them matching that success against a really good Vikings defense. At the same time, I don't think Minnesota's offense is going to have much success here and I actually think they are going to focus a lot more on running the ball to not only keep their defense fresh, but to keep Drew Brees off the field. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* NFL PATS/TITANS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 44.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 44.5 between the Titans and Patriots. I'm not anticipating this one being all that entertaining, as I think both offenses are going to have a miserable time moving the ball. Pats offense is broken and the Titans offense isn't good enough to exploit an elite NE defense on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points in this one. UNDER is 16-5 in Pats last 21 games off a loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5! 

50* CFB PLAYOFFS SEMIFINAL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 64)

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 64. Not to take anything away from these two offenses, I think the great offensive numbers for both teams are a result of the bad teams they faced in their conferences. You look at Clemson only scoring 24 against Texas A&M at home and Ohio State not producing at near the same level against the top teams in the Big 10. I just think both teams will have a much harder time moving the ball than the number suggests. 

50* COLTS/SAINTS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 46.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 46.5 between the Colts/Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans is rolling on the offensive side of the ball. While it was in a losing effort, the Saints put up 46 points and nearly 500 yards of offense against the 49ers last Sunday. They are now averaging 35.0 ppg in their last 4. They will be facing a Colts defense that has allowed 38 to the Bucs and 31 to the Titans in their last 2. Most recently they let Jameis Winston threw for 467 yards against them. 

As for the Colts offense, they should be able to hold their own in this game. New Orleans is not playing at the same level defensively as they did early in the year and they just suffered to massive injuries on that side of the ball, losing both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport to season-ending injuries. I think we could see these two eclipse this total by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 46.5! 

50* NFL AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 46 in Sunday's AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. I'm well aware that it's going to be snowing in KC before during and after the game. The betting public sees this and instantly wants to take the UNDER, but in reality the snow actually helps the offenses, as it's much harder to react on defense, as well as generate a pass rush. The biggest thing weather wise that hurts offense is wind and it's not suppose to be that windy. 

I just think this KC offense is ready to explode after being bottled up last week against the Patriots. With that said there's no shame in scoring 23 points on that NE defense, especially on the road and the Chiefs should have had a lot more. 

There's no question the KC defense has improved with each passing week, but it's far from elite and worse defenses have had success against Brady and the Pats here of late. I know they held the Broncos to just 6-points in the first meeting, but that was with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Drew Lock is a big upgrade over Flacco and he's going to generate some big plays. He's also likely to make a couple mistakes, which should lead to some quick scores for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Give me the OVER 46! 

50* RAVENS/RAMS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and Rams eclipsing the total set by the books on Monday Night Football. LA has a solid defense, but there's just no slowing down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. His ability to make something out of nothing is unreal and it's really deflating as a defense to do everything right and still give up the big play. Key here is I think the Rams are poised to go score-for-score with Baltimore. Goff is much better at home and will have his full compliment of weapons at his disposal with Cooks back from injury. Baltimore's defense is good but not great and I think they struggle to play well in this one. Give me the OVER 46.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 41. I almost always lean to the OVER in these Thursday night games, as I just don’t think defenses can play up to their potential on just 3 days of rest. On top of that, I think we are getting a pretty decent number here with both of these teams coming off games in Week 10 where neither side scored 20 points.

Not only do I think both defenses will struggle with getting their bodies up to speed on just 3 days of rest, but I could see both defenses being a bit emotionally drained from really big games at home last week. No one was giving the Steelers a shot at beating the Rams at home and few believed in the Browns being able to beat the Bills. Both defenses had to give everything they had in those wins, which I think only adds to the likelihood that they struggle a bit on Thursday.

Also, history is on our side. Only once in the last 5 meetings have these two teams failed to reach 40 points. Last year they combined for 42 in Cleveland and 51 at Pittsburgh.

I think we could see Cleveland’s offense see an uptick in production now that Kareem Hunt is finally eligible. Hunt made his debut last week and rushed for 30 yards on just 4 attempts (7.5 yards/carry). He also had 7 receptions for 44 yards. Hunt was a difference maker with the Chiefs in his brief time in the league.

As for the Steelers offense, they are expected to get back running back James Conner, who has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Conner is a big upgrade over what the Steelers had to use without him. Give me the OVER 41!

50* NFC LATE AFTERNOON TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 52.5) 

The OVER has cashed in each of the Bucs last 5 games and it’s pretty easy to see why with all the points they are giving up. Tampa Bay has allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this season.

I also don’t think this is an ideal spot for the defense to play well against an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson (TB 31st vs pass) and the fact that a lot of the Bucs players have to be running on fumes. Tampa Bay hasn’t played a home game since Week 3 (Sept. 22) as 4 of their last 5 have been true road games and the other was played in London.

As for Seattle’s defense, this is not the same vaunted Seahawks defense of years past. Seahawks are 27th against the pass and middle of the pack against the run. While the OVER is just 4-3 in their last 5, each of the last two games have barely stayed UNDER. They combined for 46 with a total of 48.5 against the Ravens and 47 with a total of 48.5 against the Falcons.

OVER is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 road games and that includes a 9-2 OVER mark on the road with a total of 45.5 or more. OVER is also 11-2 in the Seahawks last 13 home games after a contest where they gave up 7 or more yards/play in their last game. Give me the OVER 52.5!