Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total.

There were 73 combined points in last year's Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs. While I don't believe the 49ers and Chiefs will get anywhere near that number, I do believe there will be more than 50 points produced by the two teams.

Andy Reid is one of the best offensive innovator head coaches of all-time. Kyle Shanahan is an elite play-caller. Give these coaches two weeks to prepare and they should design excellent schemes and game plans.

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and already one of the all-time greats. He has a Hall of Fame tight end, Travis Kelce, wide receiver depth and a solid running back in Isiah Pacheco, who is running behind an improved run-blocking offensive line.

San Francisco has an average secondary and its overall defense has not looked good in its two playoff games. Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards, while averaging 6.0 yards a carry, against the 49ers and the Lions rushed for 182 yards on 29 carries - a 6.3 yards per run average - against San Francisco. Mahomes is going to be highly effective if the Chiefs are running the ball well. The Chiefs put up 31 points when they met the 49ers in the Super Bowl four seasons ago.

Kansas City has its best defense of the Reid/Mahomes era. But the rules highly favor offense and the 49ers have numerous weapons for Brock Purdy with Christian McCaffrey - the best all-purpose back in the league - Deebo Samuel - the best combination of receiver/runner in the NFL - emerging star Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

The Chiefs just lost two of their defensive linemen to injuries, Charles Omenihu and Derrick Nnadi. The 49ers are averaging 31.1 points in their last 10 games in which Purdy has started. Kansas City's defense is good, but not elite. It can't stop all of those 49ers weapons.

San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited.

Those are my reasons, in a nutshell, why I don't see this rather high total going Over.

The 49ers surrendered the third-fewest points in the league at 17.5. They also have the No. 3 run defense and were sixth in takeaways. San Francisco gave up 21 or fewer points in seven of its last nine games. I seriously question how effective Goff will be on the road against this caliber of defense.

The Lions are tough to run on. They gave up the second-fewest rushing yards and were fourth in causing negative plays. Detroit hasn't yielded more than 24 points during any of its last six games. The Lions held both the Chiefs and Cowboys to just 20 points each when they played them on the road.

Purdy didn't look good against the Packers last week. Many of his throws were not accurate. The 49ers are reliant on Samuel, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The 49ers averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel and 5.7 yards per play without him. 

The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers.

The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. 

The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. 

Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. 

The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing. 

The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline.

Yes, there are some very good skill position players involved. But this is a high total and these defenses are not as bad as some perceive. I also believe there will be more running plays than expected. 

Raheem Morris is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. He's done a fine job with the Rams this season. Aaron Donald still is in his dominant prime. Morris has the Rams playing a lot of soft coverage. This invites the run and prevents big plays from happening. It's good for the Under. 

Lions coach Dan Campbell isn't afraid to feature a lot of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. The Rams held seven of their last nine opponents to 22 or fewer points. Just once did the Rams allow an opposing runner to gain 100 rushing yards.

Goff's top red zone target is tight end Sam LaPorta, who set a rookie record with 86 catches and ranked No. 1 in red zone touchdowns for tight ends. LaPorta suffered a knee injury in the Lions' Week 18 victory against the Vikings. He'll be limited if he plays. Also hurt in that game was Kalif Raymond, a dangerous return man for the Lions. 

The Rams use Kyren Williams to set up their passing attack. Detroit's defense strength is its run defense. The Lions finished third in yards per carry allowed and No. 2 in run defense limiting opposing runners to 88.8 yards per game.

The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling.

Dallas could be the best team in the NFL when playing at home. The Cowboys have won 16 games in a row at AT&T Stadium. That includes an 8-0 mark this season with the average winning margin being 21.5 points.

Green Bay is the youngest team in the NFL. The Packers had no Pro Bowl players. None. They are 28th in run defense. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with an ankle injury. Joe Barry is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league. He will not have answers, nor innovations, to slow down Dallas' high-powered attack.

The Cowboys were the top-scoring team in the NFL. Dak Prescott was first in touchdown passes. He has a 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home. CeeDee Lamb is right there with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill as the best wide receiver in football.

Before closing out their regular season facing the Vikings' rookie fourth-string quarterback and the Bears, the Packers surrendered 34 points to the Buccaneers at home. They made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana. Then Green Bay gave up 30 points to the Panthers. Carolina ranked last in yards gained and second-to-last in points. The Panthers were shut out in their final two games after playing Green Bay.

The Packers, Jordan Love and their many young receivers are in the development stage. The Cowboys have gone 12-5 each of the last three seasons making the playoffs each year. They are far ahead of the Packers at this juncture.

I find this total too high for a pair of inexperienced playoff teams. C.J. Stroud is an extraordinary rookie. But he's going against a Cleveland defense that gave up the fewest yards per game and finished No. 2 in the metric DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Stroud also has to deal with maybe the best pass rusher in the league, Myles Garrett.

Joe Flacco has been a remarkable story saving the Browns' season. But what's been overlooked about Flacco, who turns 39 in a matter of days, is he has thrown eight interceptions in his five starts with Cleveland.

I envision the Browns being heavily run-oriented against the Texans. The Colts had great success on the ground vs the Texans. But they had Jonathan Taylor. The Browns don't have an above average runner with Nick Chubb sidelined.

Houston's defense is going to get reinforced, too, this week with the return of star pass rushing rookie Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman, an underrated player who racks up tackles. The Texans also might get back defensive lineman Jonathan Greenard.

This is an NFL regular season game masquerading as an exhibition game with an exhibition type total.

No Patrick Mahomes. No Justin Herbert nor Keenan Allen.

The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 playoff seed in the AFC. The Chargers are rudderless awaiting a new coach. Andy Reid has told his Chiefs to go out and have fun. The Chiefs won't have Mahomes, but their quarterback-friendly offensive system is in place.

So I see a loosely, played game with each team not afraid to take chances.

The headline is Mahomes not playing. But many key defensive players won't be in action either. The Chargers already have ruled out Joey Bosa and Kenneth Murray. The Chiefs could sit out their best defensive player, star pass rusher Chris Jones. He's dealing with a groin injury.

Blaine Gabbert will fill-in for Mahomes. He's one of the better backup QB's in the league. He's backed by an above average offense. The Chiefs don't have any stars at wide receiver, but they do have good wide receiving depth. The bar is set low for Kansas City's offense. The Chargers rank 29th in total defense and 30th in pass defense. They just surrendered 63 points to the Raiders three weeks ago.

Easton Stick will be making his fifth straight QB start for the Chargers. He has command of the offense. The Chargers, like the Chiefs, are a passing offense. Unlike other Week 18 games, weather won't factor here with clear skies, temperatures in the high 50's and little wind.

The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed.

Both the Dallas and Philadelphia Sunday games go later in the afternoon. The Eagles will be monitoring the Cowboys-Commanders matchup. If that game goes as expected with Dallas winning, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is going to want to pull Jalen Hurts and other starters not wanting to risk injury.

But even if the Eagles starters play the entire game - which I don't anticipate - the Giants are capable of beating Philadelphia straight-up.

New York would be 4-3 in its last seven games if not for a one-point loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Tyrod Taylor is the right quarterback choice. The Giants' offensive line has gotten healthier. Darren Waller has returned at tight end.

The Eagles' defense is gassed. They are giving up 31.5 points a game during their last six games. They miss Jonathan Gannon, their defensive coordinator from last season who now coaches the Cardinals. Gannon's Cardinals ran for 221 yards and never punted in beating the Eagles, 35-31, this past Sunday at Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley is better than James Conner or any runner Arizona has.

This very well could be Bill Belichick's final game as head coach of the Patriots after 24 seasons. I don't see Belichick losing at home to the Jets, a rivalry opponent his Patriots have beaten 15 times in a row! 

New England has kept its poise under Belichick despite skill position deficiencies. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games with straight-up upset victories against the Steelers and Broncos.
 
The Jets have collapsed under the weight of horrendous quarterback play going 2-7 SU, 1-8 ATS. Defense had been New York's strength. But the Jets defense has worn down from being on the field so much this season. New York has allowed an average of 31.6 points in its last three games. The Jets just were lit up by 38-year-old Joe Flacco this past Thursday losing, 37-20. 

Bailey Zappe has completed 70.3 percent of his passes during the last four games for 885 yards and six touchdowns. The Jets can't match that through the air with a quarterback choice of either Trevor Siemian or Zach Wilson if he's healthy. The Patriots have held the Jets to an average of 9.8 points during the last five meetings, including a 15-10 win earlier this season.

Just because the Steelers are in a must-win spot to keep their playoff hopes alive, doesn't mean they will win. Yes, I understand the Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will be sitting out multiple starters, including Lamar Jackson.

But John Harbaugh doesn't like losing, especially to Baltimore's bitter rival, which is Pittsburgh.

The Ravens have excellent depth and revenge for a frustrating 17-10 Week 5 loss to the Steelers when Baltimore turned the ball over three times.

Harbaugh has shown how much he hates losing as the Ravens are 24-2 in their last 26 preseason games. Baltimore also has covered 77 percent of the time the past 31 instances it has been an underdog going 24-7 ATS.

Tyler Huntley will be starting instead of Jackson. But he's no worse, if not better, than Pittsburgh's QB, immobile Mason Rudolph, who was Mike Tomlin's third choice at quarterback after Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky.

The Steelers have injuries at linebacker and in the secondary so they also will have reserves in their lineup.

The Vikings' defense has improved under ace defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota has held four of its last six opponents to 21 or fewer points.

Kevin O'Connell did the Packers a big favor by having rookie Jaren Hall start. Hall has passed for a total of 101 yards in the NFL. This signals the Vikings are going to be extra cautious and conservative in this matchup.

Jaire Alexander is suspended. But he's missed most of the season and hasn't played up to his elite level when he has been on the field. The Vikings also are without star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

The Chiefs are not an elite team right now. But the Bengals aren't even a playoff team without Joe Burrow and D.J. Reader to fortify the team's run defense. So I'm going to buy low on the Chiefs to beat the Bengals by more than a touchdown at home.

This feels like an overdue blowout victory for the Chiefs off one of their worst losses of the Patrick Mahomes era.

The Bengals have faced backup quarterbacks each of the last three games. Now they get Mahomes after just surrendering 34 points to the Steelers and Mason Rudolph.

Just like Joshua Dobbs and Tommy DeVito, the magic is wearing off on backup QB Jake Browning. These reserve quarterbacks become exposed once opponents see enough of them and fully realize their many limitations.

The Chiefs rank No. 2 in the NFL in fewest points and yards. I don't see Browning doing much against this strong of a defense on the road, especially if he doesn't get Ja'Marr Chase back.

The demoralized Broncos aren't making the playoffs for the eighth straight season. Because of that and financial considerations, they could sit out Russell Wilson. Jarrett Stidham is Denver's backup QB. That's a huge dropoff.

The Chargers showed new life in their first game without fired coach Brandon Staley nearly upsetting the Bills. Staley was holding the Chargers back with his terrible on-field decisions and hurting team morale.

Denver already has lost four times as a home favorite. The last coming to the Patriots in gut-punching fashion this past Sunday night.

The Chargers usually keep games close. They have lost six games by three or fewer points. The Chargers have had a chance to adjust to new QB Easton Stick and want to keep sticking it to the unpopular Staley by playing hard for popular interim coach Giff Smith.

Since returning from a finger injury, Matthew Stafford has been one of the best QB's in the NFL throwing for 1,578 yards with a 15-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games. 

Setting up Stafford has been the emergence of Kyren Williams as an elite running back. The second-year running back tops the NFL averaging 96.1 yards rushing a game. The Giants rank 29th in run defense. So an effective Williams should mean another big performance for Stafford and his stud wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. 

Making it worse for the Giants is they are banged-up in their defensive line. 

The buy sign is on the Giants offense with Brian Daboll going with veteran Tyrod Taylor at quarterback instead of Tommy DeVito. 

Weather won't be a factor with temperatures in the 40's, clear skies and only a slight wind.

This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly.

The Cowboys return home following a close road loss to the Dolphins. Dallas has been absolutely dominant at home and very strong, too, off a loss.
Dallas is 7-0 at home. The Cowboys' average winning margin at home is 24.4 points. Dallas also is 8-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons following a defeat.

The Lions are in a major letdown spot after capturing their first division crown in 30 years.

Dallas is second in the NFL in scoring at 30.1 points a game. Detroit also has a good offense. The difference is defense. The Cowboys give up the fifth-fewest points per game at 19.1. The Lions have permitted an average of 26.8 points during their last nine games. Detroit ranks 24th in scoring defense and 23rd in pass defense.

Dak Prescott has a 122.5 passer rating at home and a home mark of 20 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.

There's also a 10-figure gap in turnover ratio. Dallas is plus 8 in takeaways/giveaways while the Lions are minus-2.

Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's.

So as good as San Francisco is, I'm not turning down this many points with Baltimore.

This may be the game of the year. But as strange as it may sound, this is not a crucial game for the 49ers. San Francisco can lose to Baltimore and still earn the No. 1 NFC seed in the playoffs by winning its final two games. Those games are against the 4-11 Commanders and Rams at home.

My handicap is based almost entirely on being pro-Ravens rather than anti-49ers. But San Francisco did give up 234 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. The 49ers hadn't allowed that many yards on the ground in six seasons. Perhaps a possible red flag? The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. They've run for at least 100 yards in 30 straight games.

Both teams have Super Bowl-caliber defenses. The Ravens have surrendered 20 touchdowns, which is the fewest in the league. Baltimore has permitted one touchdown or fewer in nine games. That's by far the best mark in the NFL.

Brock Purdy is a pocket passer. He has outstanding weapons that he utilizes well. Jackson is his own weapon. He's the most mobile quarterback the 49ers have faced and by far the best dual-threat they've seen.

This is the supreme fade spot on the Raiders' offense after they put up 63 points against the hapless Chargers at home last week. Despite that result, Las Vegas' offense isn't very good, quarterbacked by Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders averaged just 11.5 points in their previous four games before hosting the Chargers.

The Chiefs entered this week surrendering the third-fewest points per game at 17.5. Their defense is strong and is even better with linebacker Nick Bolton back from injury.

Kansas City's offense is way down from past Patrick Mahomes seasons. The Chiefs are outside of the top-10 in scoring. This is the weakest wide receiver group Mahomes has had.

Weather is going to factor, too. The forecast is for showers, possibly snow, with temperatures dipping below 32. The Raiders are an indoors team that hasn't played in a bad weather game all season.

Geno Smith has missed Seattle's last two games. When Smith last played it was against the Cowboys. He accounted for four touchdowns and threw for 334 yards leading the Seahawks to 35 points in a 41-35 road loss. Smith is capable of games like that aided by having three excellent wide receivers and two good running backs. Smith will be back in action for this matchup.

Smith's task will be made easier by the Titans' cluster injury problem on defense. Among those out for Tennessee is lineman Jeffery Simmons. He's the Titans best defensive player. The Titans' secondary is decimated by injuries. Among those out are cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Sean Murphy-Bunting along with safeties Amani Hooker and K'Von Wallace. Defensive backs Shyheim Carter and Tae Gowan have been called up from the practice squad.

The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention. That should ensure a loose game from them with nothing to lose. Ryan Tannehill is back at quarterback with Will Levis unable to go. Tannehill is playing for his NFL future. Derrick Henry also is in rebound mode coming off one of his worst performances.

Seattle has its own injuries in the secondary. Safety Jamal Adams has been ruled out and cornerback Devon Witherspoon is out, too, with a hip injury.

The last three games in this series have gone Over. There have been at least 52 points scored during each of those past three games. I see that pattern continuing.

The Lions have tremendous firepower with Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and explosive Jamison Williams. The Vikings are heavy blitzers. But Jared Goff will be well-protected with the Lions' excellent offensive line healthy again.

Goff usually is at his finest playing on a fast track in a dome setting like in this matchup. Detroit ranks in the top-five in many of the major offensive categories, including points, yards, passing and rushing.  

Detroit's defense has been exposed as fraudulent. The Lions are giving up an average of 27.2 points in their last eight games.

The Vikings have the right backup quarterback in place now with veteran Nick Mullens. He's a much better distributor than Joshua Dobbs or rookie Jaren Hall. Justin Jefferson is healthy, giving Mullens a great wideout to go with star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Look for a lot of back and forth scoring with this one getting into the 50's just like in their three previous head-to-head matchups.

There is one thing the Commanders have excelled at this season, covering as a road underdog. They are 5-1 ATS in that role.

The Rams left nothing on the field in taking a tough road overtime loss to the Ravens last Sunday. It was an extremely physical game. The Rams looked like the superior team. But now the Rams are in the favorite's role against a rested Washington team that finally had its bye week. The Commanders desperately needed to rest and regroup having lost four in a row. It's one of many unfair things about the NFL that some teams had to wait until Week 14 to get their bye.

The Commanders are horrible on defense especially in pass coverage. However, they have skill position talent and quarterback Sam Howell is resilient and resourceful. He can keep the Commanders in this contest against a below-average Los Angeles defense that has just 11 takeaways, third-lowest in the league.

The Rams host the Saints this coming Thursday in what shapes up to be a tougher game and more meaningful in their playoff chase. So this matchup looms as a letdown spot.

I'm selling high on the Bears, who have won three of their last four games but haven't faced an elite defense like this on the road all season.

Chicago is in a fat-and-happy mood having won two straight NFC North Division games upsetting the Vikings on the road and Lions at home this past Sunday.

Cleveland gives up the fewest yards in the NFL. The Browns also are a far stronger defensive team at home. Toss out the Ravens game and the Browns have held their other six home opponents to an average of 10 points a game.

Joe Flacco has solidified the Browns' quarterback spot with his veteran presence and threat of a deep pass. He's 38, but his arm is still there.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do.

The Chiefs are still mad and fired-up about the way they lost to the Bills last week. They are going to be up for this game. Kansas City has too much offense for New England.

The Patriots and Bailey Zappe didn't suddenly get good by virtue of their 21-18 victory against the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh is terrible going 1-4 in its last five games averaging 13.4 points during this span.

New England's defense is sound, but it's going to break under the weight of the Chiefs' well-designed attack and the ineptitude of the Patriot offense. The Patriots had scored a combined 13 points during their previous three games before beating the Steelers. New England is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL averaging 13 points a game. Zappe is not a starting-caliber quarterback and the Patriots remain without their one decent skill position player, injured Rhamondre Stevenson.

This also was the week where news broke about this possibly being Bill Belichick's last season in New England. Belichick hasn't had the locker room all season. So this distracting news is going to be more of a negative than a motivational factor.

This is a low total for a Colts home game. Indy has gone Over in 69 percent of its games under innovative and aggressive Shane Steichen.

The Colts are the eighth-highest scoring team in the NFL at 24.2 points per game. They have scored 27 or more points in five of their last seven games.

I expect the Steelers to keep up. They gained more than 400 yards for the first time this season three weeks ago against the Bengals. It was not a coincidence it was their first game since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. There was a big buzz then about Pittsburgh's improved offense.

The Steelers are more explosive and use better schemes since getting rid of Canada, who seemed to think the only pass worth throwing was an out-of-bounds sideline pass to George Pickens. But the offensive improvement didn't show the past two games because the Steelers had to play in horrible weather conditions against the Cardinals and then went up against New England's upper-tier defense, although still managing 21 points against the Patriots.

Now the Steelers are dropping way down in defensive class facing the Colts, who rank 29th in scoring defense giving up 25.4 points a game. The Colts are 27th in run defense and 25th in total defense.

Mitch Trubisky is just as good as Kenny Pickett. Yes I know that's a low bar. But Trubisky is far more mobile and he has three quality receivers and two reliable running backs to help him out against a bad defense on Indy's fast dome track.

When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. 

The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. 

Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  

The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. 

Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. 

Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. 

Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. 

Miami has the most explosive and intriguing offense in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the league in yards and are second in points at 32 per game. They also have had the most plays of plus 25 and plus 50 yard gains.

The Titans would be hard-pressed to keep the Dolphins in check if they had all of their best defensive players. But they will be without their top lineman, Jeffery Simmons, and cornerback, Kristian Fulton. So this sets up as another big-scoring game for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The Titans gave up 34 points to the Jaguars in their last road game.

The Dolphins can come close to covering this Over themselves. But I expect the Titans to contribute their share of points.

Derrick Henry still has some juice left. He entered this week ranked No. 2 in rushing with 841 yards and eight TD's on the ground. Rookie QB Will Levis had proven to be more gunslinger than game manager, averaging 11.8 yards per completion in six starts, which was the third-highest number in the AFC during the last seven weeks.

The Titans lost their reliable punter, Ryan Stonehouse, to a season-ending injury in last week's, 31-28, overtime loss to the Colts. The Colts blocked two Tennessee punts in that game. The Dolphins are sure to have taken notice.

Dallas is 9-3. The Cowboys have crushed a lot of bad teams. They've faced only two above .500 opponents, though, and lost those two games, falling to the Eagles and 49ers.

I think of the Cowboys as a bully. Now they get their rematch with the Eagles. You know what you're getting with the Eagles - an elite, resilient team that is well-coached. I can't say that about the Cowboys.

I wonder if the Cowboys' preparation wasn't thrown off by Mike McCarthy undergoing surgery for an acute appendicitis on Wednesday?

The Eagles have fortified themselves after getting blasted by the 49ers at home this past Sunday. Dallas Goedert, a top-five tight end, is expected to play after missing the last three games. Goedert opens the middle of the field for Jalen Hurts and makes things easier for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

The Eagles also upgraded their defense by signing three-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard.

There are multiple bad weather games this week. This isn't one of them. The forecast is for a sunny day with temperatures in the 40's and little wind.

So Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes won't have any restrictions.

The Bills have been more aggressive in playing to Allen's strengths - which is his running and taking downfield shots - since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey two games ago. Buffalo is averaging 33 points since Dorsey departed. They had averaged 20.5 points during their previous six games.

The Chiefs were short-handed at linebacker against the Packers last week after Drue Tranquill suffered a concussion. He's questionable as is Nick Bolton, who has been on the injured list. It's a bonus if those two are unable to play.

Mahomes can take advantage of a beat-up Bills defense that has lost their best linebacker and cornerback for the season.

Jordan Love has had two strong games in a row. That was against the Chargers and Lions. Now he steps up facing a much better defense. Kansas City surrenders the third-fewest points per game at 16.5. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points in a game all season.

The Packers are likely to be missing their best runner again, Aaron Jones. That leaves plodding A.J. Dillon, who isn't 100 percent either because of groin injury, and free agent type of backup runners to handle the ground attack.

Green Bay's defense has been underrated, permitting 18.2 points per game in its last seven games. There's a good chance the Packers get back a number of their injured defensive backs, too, including shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. A healthy Rashan Gary makes a big difference for Green Bay. His snap count has increased as he nears 100 percent. Gary had three sacks against the Lions last Thursday.

The Chiefs have dropped the most passes in the league costing them nearly 300 yards. Expect Kansas City to attack Green Bay's run defense. That means a lot of north/south runner Isiah Pacheco, which is good for the under.

This is a December night game in Green Bay so it will be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with a chance of snow.

The Rams were able to bully a bad Cardinals defense last week. They won't be able to do that against an elite, well-coached Browns defense.

Cleveland is the better team. But because of its quarterback situation with Joe Flacco starting we have an inflated line on the Rams.

The line is shaded to the Rams, too, because of Cleveland injuries. However, I expect both Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper to both play. Cooper actually is excited about Flacco starting because of Flacco's ability to throw deep.

If you discount the Rams' overtime victory against the Colts, their only wins have been against the Cardinals and Seahawks. LA has lost both to the Bengals and Steelers. The Browns defeated the Bengals and split with the Steelers.

The Rams are a finesse team. The Browns are extremely physical. It's a bad matchup for the Rams and because of that this game is priced incorrectly.

The Rams are going from playing a bottom-two defense in Arizona to meeting a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards. Night and day.

Before lighting up the Cardinals' dreadful defense last week, the Rams had averaged 14.2 points in their previous four games. The Rams' passing game isn't as good as it looks on paper with Cooper Kupp being close to a non-factor with only six receptions in his last three games for 77 yards.

The Browns can win this game with their tough defense and ground-control running attack. The only thing that can beat the Browns is turnovers. So look for Cleveland to be ultra-conservative on offense knowing that immobile Joe Flacco will be under center.

The Rams have held their last three opponents - Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers - to a combined average of 16.6 points.

The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game.

I find the 49ers to be the most complete team in the NFC when healthy, which they are now. The Eagles rank 29th on pass defense. That is a potentially fatal flaw.

Philadelphia also isn't as healthy as San Francisco with a banged-up receiver corps.

San Francisco is the more rested team having last played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles defense was on the field for a staggering 92 plays in their overtime victory against the Bills last Sunday. Buffalo produced 505 yards against the Eagles.

The 49ers have much to prove here. The Eagles, on the other hand, actually have a bigger game on deck when they face the Cowboys on the road next Sunday night.

Finally free of obtuse offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers produced a season-high 421 yards against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett wasn't just restricted to throwing sideline passes like before. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards using the middle of the field. Pittsburgh has a strong 1-2 running punch of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to go with one of the better wide receiver tandems, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.

The Steelers weren't utilizing all these weapons properly under Canada. Now they are. Pittsburgh also gets to face a worse defense than Cincinnati - Arizona. Only the Commanders have surrendered more points than the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are more dangerous offensively with Kyler Murray and James Conner back. Going by fantasy football numbers, Murray has been a top-10 quarterback since his return three games ago. The Steelers have yielded the seventh-most yards to wide receivers.

It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas.

The Cowboys have been invincible at home winning 13 in a row. They are 5-0 SU and ATS this season at AT&T Stadium. All five of the Cowboys' home victories have been by at least 20 points. These wins have come against the Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants and Commanders.

Not good competition. But then again Seattle isn't very good right now. Seattle is 1-3 in its last four games with the lone victory during this span coming against Washington. Smith is cold and dealing with a sore elbow. Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks' best runner, isn't expected to play. The Seahawks have only scored three touchdowns offensively during their last four games.

I don't see Smith keeping pace with Dak Prescott, who is the hottest quarterback in the NFL with an 18-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

There's a chance of rain, but no need to be scared off by the weather because wind isn't a factor.

The Bills have the most beat-up defense in the league with numerous injuries, including ones to their top linebacker and cornerback.

The Eagles have one weakness - pass defense where they rank 28th.

Buffalo is in a much better position to have success attacking that weakness with a change in offensive coordinators from fired Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. This change signals that Josh Allen will be reverting back to his old style of running more and the Bills using multiple wide receiver sets with far more pre-snap motion to freeze defenses.

The Bills put up 32 points on a good Jets defense last week in their first game without Dorsey.

Everybody is talking about how good the Browns' defense is even saying it's Super Bowl caliber. However, Cleveland's defense is far less intimidating on the road. The Browns have surrendered an average of 29.7 points a game in four away games this season.

The Browns also aren't going to have Denzel Ward, their best cornerback.

So I have to side with the Broncos given their strong quarterback edge with Russell Wilson versus rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who will be making only second career NFL start. Cleveland's passing attack is very much limited with Thompson-Robinson behind center.

Sean Payton ran his mouth during the off-season about how bad Nathaniel Hackett was with the Broncos last season. It wasn't a classy thing to do, but Payton was right. Russell Wilson is having a strong bounce back season under Payton with a 19-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

This is a tough situational spot for the Browns. They are off consecutive narrow AFC North Division victories against the Ravens and Steelers. Their intensity could be down a notch going against this AFC West opponent.

The numbers are 64.6 percent completions for 2,389 yards and 15 TD passes. Those numbers belong to Baker Mayfield. Surprised? Mayfield is having a below-the-radar good season. The Buccaneers have no ground attack, but they can effectively air it out.

Mayfield goes from facing the 49ers' daunting defense to drawing Indy's defense that ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game and is 25th in total defense. Mayfield is at his best finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sitting between defenders in zone coverage. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is notorious for his complete reliance on Cover-2 type zone defenses.

Shane Streichen, the Colts' coach and offensive guru, has had extra time to prepare with the Colts off their bye. He should dial up plenty of passes with the Buccaneers ranked second-to-last in pass defense. The Buccaneers' secondary is made more vulnerable with numerous injuries. Out are star linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean. In addition, cornerback Carlton Davis and linebacker Devin White are each questionable.

This clearly is a buy low on the Commanders sell high on the Cowboys play. 

It's just plain too many points in this long-time bitter division rivalry. If the Commanders lose big here on national TV, Ron Rivera could be fired on Black Friday. You have to believe the Commanders are primed to provide their best effort.

But will it be good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Dallas?

Yes. Washington looked horrible in losing to the Giants last week. Let's not forget, though, how tough the Commanders played the Eagles in both of their meetings this season,  losing the first one in overtime and the second, 38-31, after leading in the fourth quarter. 

The Cowboys have played nine of their 11 games against below .500 opponents. Unlike some of the Cowboys' victims such as the Panthers, Giants, Patriots and Jets, the Commanders have back-door capabilities with a top-10 passing attack spearheaded by mobile and resilient Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in passing yards. 

The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup.

After that game, Lombardi said the Packers would never again play the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Packers should have followed Lombardi's wishes because this is a terrible situational spot for them.

As the Lions ascend, the Packers descend. Green Bay is 2-5 in its last seven games. The short week really hurts the Packers here as they won't have Aaron Jones and may not have A.J. Dillon, who has a groin injury. The Packers are in free agent country without those two running backs. They also could be without two of their better receivers with Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave questionable.

The Packers have been depleted in the secondary with possibly all four starters out. They were hoping to get some of them back, but this early-week game is a hindrance to that. Expect Jared Goff to have a much better game than he had against the Bears last week. Goff was on his way to his worst game of the season throwing a season-high three interceptions against the Bears. Yet Detroit still pulled out a five-point victory.

Green Bay was much more optimistic when it hosted the Lions in late September. That was on a Thursday, too. The Packers laid an egg falling behind, 27-3, at halftime before losing, 34-20. The poorly coached Packers defense couldn't contain straight-ahead runner David Montgomery, who rushed for 121 yards and powered to three touchdowns.

It was the fourth straight time the Lions have defeated Green Bay. Look for the Lions to make it five straight victories in convincing fashion.

The Broncos have their confidence up riding a three-game winning streak with the last two victories coming against the Bills and Chiefs.

The keys have been a resurgent Denver defense and a turnaround season from Russell Wilson, who has an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson will be helped by the Vikings being minus their second-leading tackler, injured linebacker Jordan Hicks.

The Vikings have pulled off a pair of upset wins the past two weeks with newcomer Joshua Dobbs as their QB. Dobbs is a better runner than thrower. His stock is at an all-time high. Dobbs, though, is not an accurate passer, nor a downfield threat. He's really just a game manager with good legs. This should not be forgotten amidst all of the adulation for him during his remarkable stint with the Vikings.

Dobbs needs weapons and he won't have them here. Justin Jefferson remains out. The Vikings probably will be down to third-string tailback Ty Chandler to handle the bulk of their running. T.J. Hockenson is available, but is severely banged-up.

This has the potential for being a below-the-radar shootout. Trevor Lawrence is way overdue for a big game and he's dropping way down in class after going against the 49ers last week.

The Titans are weak in the secondary. Their statistics haven't looked bad because in their last three games they've faced the following quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Kenny Pickett and Taylor Heinicke/Desmond Ridder. Lawrence is way more talented than any of those stiff QB's.

Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel should be astute enough to realize that he needs to establish the pass before he can get Derrick Henry going. This is the opposite approach of what the Titans have been under Vrabel.

Rookie Will Levis has a big arm, a still dangerous DeAndre Hopkins and the Jaguars will be minus their best cornerback, injured Tyson Campbell. Jacksonville has the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. So I expect the Titans to contribute their fair share of points here.

The Texans are 5-0 as an underdog this season. However, when favored they are 0-3 ATS this season. Until this season, the Texans hadn't been favored in 22 consecutive games. Yes, Houston is much improved thanks to C.J. Stroud and better coaching. But the Texans are overpriced because this isn't the Cardinals of past weeks.

Arizona welcomed Kyler Murray back this past Sunday against the Falcons. Murray showed he hasn't lost his magical ability to escape pressure and be a big-time quarterback. The Falcons found that out first-hand losing to the Cardinals.

The offensive season statistics of the Cardinals should be tossed out. Their offense is much more dangerous now with Murray, who has all his weapons healthy with Marquise Brown, James Conner, Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore and emerging tight end force Trey McBride. Murray can attack a banged-up Houston secondary that ranks 24th.

As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. 

Poorly coached on defense and way too inexperienced on offense, the Packers are rapidly heading toward lower-echelon status with their only victory in their last six games coming against the Brett Rypien-led Rams at home. 

Justin Herbert can light up a vulnerable, banged-up Green Bay secondary that was forced to start inexperienced backup cornerbacks Carrington Valetine and Corey Ballentine last Sunday. 

Jordan Love has an 8-to-13 touchdown-to-giveaway ratio in his last seven games. The Chargers can protect their secondary because they have some excellent pass rushers and Green Bay's offensive line has regressed to mediocre status.

The Chargers catch a weather break, too, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the high 40's with no rain and little wind.

The timing is right to back the Jets off their Monday night home loss to the Chargers while the Raiders rode the excitement and relief of having Josh McDaniels finally getting fired to a victory against the lowly Giants.

Those results have made the Jets underpriced here and the Raiders overpriced.

Let's start with the Raiders. Their defense is bad even with Maxx Crosby. Rookie Aidan O'Connell isn't any better than Zach Wilson. Davante Adams is wasted in the Raiders' offense. Adams has caught five passes for 45 yards the last two weeks. He hasn't gone above 57 yards receiving in his last five games.

Canning McDaniels was the right thing to do for the Raiders. But interim coach Antonio Pierce isn't a head coach. The Raiders rode enthusiasm and a historically bad Giants offense to an easy victory last week. Pierce didn't really have to do anything. That rare emotion from the Raiders is not sustainable. Pierce is going to find himself way over his head similar to Jeff Saturday with the Colts last year.

The Jets' defense is at least two levels higher, if not three levels above the Raiders. The Jets like to believe they are serious playoff contenders owning victories against the Bills and Eagles. If they are, they can't afford to lose to this opponent.

It's the Jets who should be the more motivated team this week following a bad home loss on Monday night. Getting out of New York actually should work in their favor.

The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory.

Now the Seahawks drop down from playing the best defense to one of the worst - and they get the Commanders at home. Washington was terrible defensively before they dealt Chase Young and Montez Sweat away. Now the Commanders don't have a pass rush to go with their vulnerable secondary.

Pete Carroll is going to have the Seahawks ready to play following the debacle against the Ravens.

Geno Smith can look good against a bottom-five defense given the weapons Seattle has.

Seattle's defense had been looking pretty good until that Ravens game. The Seahawks had held their previous four opponents to an average of 12.5 points. Washington has become a one-dimensional passing team. Sam Howell has good statistics because the Commanders have become so heavily pass-oriented. But he's average at best and the Commanders have trouble protecting him giving up 44 sacks, second-most in the NFL.

Note, too, the situational aspects. Not only are the Seahawks returning home following a humiliating loss, Washington is fat and happy after beating Bill Belichick's Patriots. This marks Washington's second consecutive road game and an East to West travel itinerary. The Commanders' last seven games all have been played on East Coast time.

If there's one thing the Falcons can do it's beat bad teams such as the Cardinals. Atlanta is 4-2 against .500 or below foes.

Stubborn and unlikeable Arthur Smith has yet to figure out that Bijan Robinson is worth using, but at least he made the right QB switch to Taylor Heinicke, who gives a spark and experience the Falcons lacked with Desmond Ridder under center. Heinicke should get back Atlanta's best wide receiver, Drake London.

The Cardinals are the worst team in the NFL. Maybe they'll improve with Kyler Murray back. It remains to be seen how rusty Murray could be and if he's lost any mobility. The Falcons should be ready for Murray after having just faced another QB, Joshua Dobbs, who has the ability to break containment and get outside.

The Falcons and Smith are a laughing stock right now after losing to Dobbs and the Vikings last week. They'll seek redemption here against this layup opponent.

After three consecutive losses - one of which occurred against the Browns on a missed 41-yard field goal with six seconds left - I'm buying low on the 49ers.

Each team is off their bye. The timing works out much better for San Francisco. I'm expecting Deebo Samuel and offensive left tackle Trent Williams to return to the 49ers' lineup following the extra time off. That will make Brock Purdy reach peak efficiency again.

Jacksonville entered its bye winning and covering five in a row. That momentum could get stalled.

The Jaguars have come up with 18 takeaways, an average of 2.2 per game. If the 49ers play a clean game, they should win being the superior team.

Trevor Lawrence remains inconsistent. He's going to encounter a strong 49ers defense that will be bolstered by the return to health of underrated linebacker Dre Greenlaw and the addition of defensive line stud Chase Young from the Commanders. Nick Bosa is way overdue for a big game, too. It could come here.

The Falcons should have fired Arthur Smith for letting his Falcons lose, 31-28, to the Vikings and Joshua Dobbs last Sunday. It's not going to happen to defensive whiz Dennis Allen and the Saints.

Dobbs was a great story last week learning on the fly after being forced into Minnesota's starting lineup four days after joining the team when rookie QB Jaren Hall was injured. But there are reasons why Dobbs is on his eighth NFL team since coming into the league in 2017. The main reason being he can't throw downfield. Dobbs is 2-9 as an NFL starter.

The Saints have an above average defense. The Vikings rank 29th in rushing. They are without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson and No. 3 wideout K.J. Osborn is questionable as is offensive left tackle Christian Darrisaw. This is the spot where the Vikings are really going to miss Kirk Cousins.

Minnesota has a below average defense. The Saints' offense has picked up with Alvin Kamara back from suspension and increased usage from multi-talented Taysom Hill. New Orleans has gained more than 400 yards in three of its last four games.

There's also a 13 turnover difference between the two teams. The Vikings are minus 5 in takeaways/giveaways, while New Orleans is plus 8 in that department.

The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night.

Only once in their last 10 games, have the Chargers won two in a row. The Jets have played the tougher schedule and are 3-1 at home this season with point spread covers against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. They've beaten the Bills and Eagles straight-up, teams better than the Chargers.

Justin Herbert is off his finest game of the year. However, he was facing the Bears, who have no pass rush and entered this Week 9 ranked third-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

The Jets' defense is really hitting their stride with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed back from injuries. The Jets rank fifth in pass defense. They've held their last three opponents to an average of 15 points a game.

Minus All-Pro center Corey Linsley, Herbert was sacked five times by the Chiefs two weeks ago. Herbert also is without two of his three best wide receivers with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer both out.  

Zach Wilson should have one of his better games. The Chargers give up 24 points a game and rank 31st in pass defense.

It's no coincidence the Bengals put up 31 points on the road against a strong 49ers defense last week. Joe Burrow is finally healthy. He looked great. The rest of the Bengals are healthy, too. Joe Mixon actually displayed some explosiveness for the first time this season.

The Bills have played the following QB's in their last three games: Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield. Now they face an elite QB with one of the most banged-up defenses in the NFL. Burrow can exploit Buffalo's long list of key defensive players who are out the way those other QB stiffs couldn't.

Buffalo, in turn, has opened up its offense going back to three wide receiver sets, involving potential star pass-catching rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid more and having Josh Allen run in his reckless fashion. The Bills are playing faster using more no-huddle, all great for the Over.

The weather should be fine for this Sunday night matchup with the forecast calling for temperatures in the low 40's, little wind and clear skies.

If there's one game Panthers coach Frank Reich wants to win more than any other it's this one against the Colts, a team he was fired from after coaching them the previous five years.

Are the 1-6 Panthers capable of that?

The buy sign is on after Carolina came out of its bye week with a 15-13 home win against the Texans. The Panthers were better offensively because they made a switch in play-callers going to Thomas Brown, who wasn't afraid to let Bryce Young throw on first down. The Panthers also made a smart move decreasing the role of Miles Sanders, who is one of the worst running backs in the league.

The Colts can't be road chalk because of their horrendous defense. They are giving up an NFL-worst 28.6 points per game. Indy ranks 28th in total defense. If anything, the Colts' defense is getting worse allowing an average of 38 points in their past three games. They just surrendered 38 points and 511 yards to a moribund Saints offense last week at home.

The Commanders' already horrific defense just traded defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Those two were maybe their best defenders. The Patriots are minus pass rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Now linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is questionable with a hamstring injury. Those are New England's three top defensive players. 

Yet the total still remains low by today's NFL offensively-enabled numbers. 

Sam Howell has put up good numbers despite being sacked the most of any QB. He has reliable receiving targets. The Patriots have permitted the ninth-most passing TD's and 11th-most receiving yards. New England is tied for the second-fewest sacks with 15. 

Mac Jones should have a strong game because he'll have a clean pocket. The Commanders rank in the bottom-four in scoring defense, defensive total yards and pass defense.

If you're going to undergo a youth movement at the skill positions, you better have good coaching. The Packers lack leadership both on the field and on the sidelines. Their defense underperforms to their talent level and Matt LaFleur offers nothing innovative to help Jordan Love. It's obvious the Packers' success during LaFleur's previous three seasons was due to Aaron Rodgers carrying the team.

Having said all this, I don't believe the Packers lose to the Rams. Green Bay is mediocre at best, but it is not bottom-five. The Rams are a bottom-five unit with Brett Rypien at QB. Note, too, the Rams are going to be without their second-best defensive player as linebacker Ernest Jones is out with a knee injury.

This is the Packers' season and they have a lay-up opponent at home because of Matthew Stafford likely sitting out.

I don't trust the Packers to cover any margin. But I will throw a peanut on them on the money line asking them to just win the game.

The game hasn't even started and already Clayton Tune is hearing Myles Garrett's footsteps. 

I didn't want to jump the gun on this one, but now that we know Deshaun Watson will be under center for Cleveland instead of P.J. Walker and the rookie Tune will be in the Lion's Den not mobile Kyler Murray, I'm going to lay the wood with Cleveland. 

This is a give-up game for the Cardinals. If it weren't, they would have held on to Joshua Dobbs, or started Murray. Tune is facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game and also ranks No. 1 in pass defense. He doesn't have a reliable running back either with James Conner a week away from returning. 

Watson was coming off his best game as a Brown on Sept. 24 against the Titans where he was 27-of-33 passing for 289 yards and two TD's. His QB rating was 123.4. However, he's thrown just five passes since then as the Browns have given him the baby treatment holding him out of games. But now Watson is ready.

He gets an Arizona defense that ranks in the bottom-seven in scoring defense and defensive total yards. 

Unless there's bad weather or key skill position injury concerns, this is too low of a total. The weather is going to be fine and Derrick Henry is set to play. DeAndre Hopkins is likely to suit up, too, so I'm going Over.

Rookie Will Levis threw four TD passes against the Falcons in his pro debut last week. While I don't expect Levis to repeat that a second straight week, he's a plus for the Over because of his strong arm. Injured Ryan Tannehill was the lowest rated starting QB in the league. Tannehill had just two TD passes all season. The threat of a downfield Titans passing attack makes Henry more dangerous because Pittsburgh's defense just can't key on him.

There is a big injury - and it's on the Steelers defense. Star free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is out with a hamstring injury. That's another plus for the Over.

I expect Kenny Pickett to get the QB start for Pittsburgh. He has two strong wide receiving targets in George Pickins and Diontae Johnson. If Pickett can't go, I'm fine with Mitchell Trubisky behind center as this is not a huge total to go Over.

Both the Raiders and Lions were humbled last week. The Lions were destroyed, 38-6, by the Ravens while the Raiders were embarrassed by the Bears, 30-12, who were giving rookie QB Tyson Bagent his first NFL start.

The Lions are a legitimate, good team. The Raiders aren't. I like the Lions to bounce back in a big way hosting their first nationally televised Monday night home game since 2018.

Detroit had won four consecutive games, all by double-digits, before losing to the Ravens.

Jared Goff plays much better at home inside a dome where cold and wind don't factor. The Lions remain without injured David Montgomery, but rookie Jahmyr Gibbs stepped up against the Ravens amassing 126 total yards and showing why he was a first-round draft pick.

Detroit's defense is much improved, especially against the run. But the Lions have trouble against mobile QB's. Lamar Jackson really hurt them last week. Jimmy Garoppolo is anything but mobile. He's also turnover-prone. The Raiders entered this Week 8 committing the most turnovers in the NFL with 15. Garoppolo has eight interceptions in just five games.

Las Vegas averages just 16 points a game and entered this week last in rushing, which doesn't say much for the highly disappointing Josh Jacobs.

This sets up as a get-well game for Justin Herbert, who has had a disappointing season given his high bar. The Bears defense turned dreadful after the team dealt star linebacker Roquan Smith and pass rusher Robert Quinn at midseason last year.

Chicago finished last in scoring defense and 29th in total defense in 2022. This season the Bears are giving up 28.9 points, which ranks 28th, and they are 29th in pass defense. Safety Jaquan Brisker, the Bears' fourth-leading tackler, already has been ruled out and fellow safety Eddie Jackson is questionable with a foot injury. So Herbert is set up for success.

The Bears were able to slow down the Raiders at home last week because Las Vegas' QB's were Brian Hoyer and Aidan O'Connell. I don't see them doing well against Herbert.

Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent draws his second NFL start for Chicago. He showed accuracy - more than Justin Fields - and moxie in helping the Bears defeat the Raiders, 30-12, last week. The Bears should open their playbook more for him this week. It just might be that the Bears found a diamond in the rough.  

The Chargers have the worst pass defense in the league. Their secondary, particularly Derwin James, seems more interested in head hunting than in playing smart football. The Chargers are second-to-last in defensive total yards and 25th in scoring defense allowing 25.8 points per game.

Dak Prescott is off his best game of the season. The Cowboys' offensive line is as healthy as it has been all season and getting more in sync. Dallas has had two weeks to prepare, being on its bye last week. The Rams defense is mediocre at best and is stepping up in class after having just played the Steelers and Cardinals.

So I'm confident the Cowboys will produce their share of points hosting the Rams. Dallas is averaging a whooping 38 points per game in its last seven games at AT&T Stadium.

I expect Matthew Stafford to keep up given that he has a healthy Cooper Kupp along with rookie-of-the-year candidate Puka Nacua, who leads the NFL in receptions with 58. The Rams aren't one-dimensional either. Their ground attack is averaging 157 yards rushing the past two weeks.

Micah Parsons is a dominant player, but Dallas defense is not dominant minus its best cornerback, Trevon Diggs, and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. The Cowboys surrendered 42 points to the 49ers just two weeks ago.

The Rams' field goal kicking can't get worse after they cut Brett Maher, who missed two field goals and an extra point against the Steelers last week.

The Bears are the Packers' oldest rival. But it's the Vikings who the Packers want to beat more than any other team. It has been that way for years. The spot sets up perfect for Green Bay to do just that.

The Vikings are coming off a stunning upset home win against the 49ers this past Monday now. That was their second win in a row having beaten the Bears during the NFL debut of rookie QB Tyson Bagent two weeks ago.

Minnesota is weak defensively, lacks a good ground attack and its passing game is down several notches without Justin Jefferson. The Vikings are an average team at best. They come into Green Bay on a short week flush with short-term success. They'll find a desperate Packers team with their season and manhood hanging in the balance following three straight losses, two coming on the road to the Raiders and Broncos, whose combined record is 5-9.

The Packers are an average team like the Vikings, but this is a great spot for them. They haven't played at home in four weeks and they get their best offensive player, Aaron Jones, back from injury. Jordan Love desperately needs Jones especially against the blitz-happy Vikings.

Love isn't as good as he looked during the first three games. But he isn't as bad as he's looked during the last three games.

Kirk Cousins is more turnover-prone than Love. The Vikings have committed 14 turnovers, which is second-most in the NFL next to the Raiders.

The Vikings played their first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday. They managed only 220 yards of total offense, reaching the red zone just once. Yet they managed to win because they were playing the Bears, who had lost Justin Fields to injury during the game.

The 49ers don't need Christian McCaffrey to beat the Vikings.

San Francisco is in a huge bounce-back spot after getting upset by the Browns in Cleveland last Sunday. That game was played in windy conditions, which bothered Brock Purdy. This game is being played in a dome and Purdy is stepping down in defensive class going from the No. 1 defense to a below average one that will be minus one of its best interior players with Marcus Davenport out.

The 49ers were averaging 33.4 points looking like the best team in the NFL before running into the Browns. Even with that loss, San Francisco has covered 13 of its last 17 games.

The Vikings are going to struggle to dent a 49ers defense that gives up the fewest points per game, ranks No. 3 in fewest yards allowed and has 11 takeaways. San Francisco has the best turnover ratio in the league at plus 8, while the Vikings are minus 7 in takeaways/giveaways.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are up to their old dominant ways. The Rams' wide receiving corps is at peak efficiency right now with the emergence of rookie Puka Nacua and vast improvement shown by Tutu Atwell.

Despite the presence of T.J. Watt, the Steelers' defense is down from previous seasons. They rank 30th in defensive total yards.

Kyren Williams is out for the Rams. That's going to cripple their ground attack. But I see Stafford passing more because of that. Sean McVay probably will decide on the best pass blocking running back to replace Williams.

The Steelers should come out throwing, too, following their bye. Kenny Pickett is close, or at, 100 percent. He gets back tight end security blanket and prime red zone target tight end Pat Friermuth and probably Diontae Johnson, too. That would give Pickett three strong receiving targets factoring in talented George Pickens.

I don't find the Rams defense very good. It's Aaron Donald and 10 other bodies.

I'm not sold on the Lions playing their second consecutive road game on grass. The Ravens' defense is extremely intimidating at home. The Ravens surrender the second-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points per game.

The Lions need a balanced attack. They aren't going to have that with David Montgomery out. He's been their best runner by far. Jared Goff has a history of not playing well in outdoor games when the weather conditions are not good. Heavy wind is being forecast for this game.

Detroit's defense is much improved. However, it's not as good as its numbers. The Lions' last three opponents have been the Buccaneers, Panthers and Packers. All three of those teams rank in the bottom-10 in yards gained.

The Ravens' offensive line finally has gotten healthy. The Lions have trouble with mobile QB's and Lamar Jackson is the most dangerous running QB in the NFL with Justin Fields out.

Take the Lions out of their dome. Put them on a grass field in windy conditions against an elite defense and they are not going to put up fancy numbers.

That's the situation here with Detroit traveling to Baltimore to face a Ravens defense that gives up 15.2 points per game and ranks No. 2 in the NFL in defensive total yards and pass defense.

The Ravens have held their last three opponents to an average of 12 points a game.

Jared Goff has a history of playing much worse in outdoor settings especially when weather is a factor. The forecast is for strong wind in the 15-20 mph range. Goff won't have his top running back either with David Montgomery out. The Lions hope to get Jahmyr Gibbs back, but he's been a disappointment and is not a heavy duty back like Montgomery.

The Lions' defense has improved so much that it can be trusted to hold up their end.

Detroit has the No. 1 run defense in the league. The Lions rank seventh in defensive total yards and ninth in scoring defense giving up 18.8 points a game. The Ravens are without their best running back, J.K. Dobbins, and their passing attack has been hurt by repeated dropped passes from their mediocre wide receiving group.

Dennis Allen isn't a very good head coach. But he's an elite defensive coach. The Saints have turned into a dead nuts Under team with Allen.

The Under has cashed in 14 of the Saints' last 15 games, including all five games this season. The Saints have played 11 consecutive games where the combined score was below 40 points.

What clinches this Under play, though, is how improved the Texans' defense is under their new coach, defensive-minded DeMeco Ryans. Houston has held its last three opponents to an average of 14.6 points. New Orleans had managed only four offensive TD's during its first four games until blasting the punchless Patriots, 34-0, at home last week.

Derek Carr is mediocre. The Saints should have known this before signing him. He doesn't elevate his surrounding talent.

The Texans are going against a top-five defense shorthanded as usual with multiple injuries in their offensive line and the possibility of being down wide receivers, Robert Woods and Tank Dell, their second-biggest threat. Houston hasn't been able to run the ball ranking 27th in rushing. That inability could really hurt them against this caliber of defense.

Maybe the Commanders get things turned around - although I have no confidence in Ron Rivera - but until there is evidence of that, they remain a team to fade. Washington has lost three in a row with the latest being, 40-20, to the previously winless Bears at home.

The Falcons not only are the better team, but they are home. It's Washington's first dome game of the season.

Atlanta is a top-12 rushing team with an emerging superstar running back in Bijan Robinson. The Commanders can't match that. They also can't protect Sam Howell. He's on pace to be sacked 99 times!

The Falcons' defense is much improved from last season ranking in the top-10, while the Commanders' defense has greatly regressed to the point of allowing 31 points a game, second-worst in the NFL.

Lots of dropped passes and six lost fumbles have skewed the Ravens' offensive numbers. But Baltimore remains aggressive in its new passing-oriented offense. Lamar Jackson is comfortable and likes this new aggressive approach. He's completing a career-best 69.9 percent of his throws despite Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman dropping way too many balls. Those two are too good to keep doing that.

So I envision a strong offensive performance from Jackson and the Ravens against a Tennessee defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense and was just gashed for 193 yards rushing by the Colts last Sunday. The Titans have just three takeaways, too, which ranks 30th. 

On the flip side, I see the Titans scoring their share of points. Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins remain productive. Tennessee's offensive line has been getting better.

The Ravens' defense has good numbers. But I'm not sold on them, especially outside of Baltimore where they are less intimidating. 

Baltimore has been extremely lucky in the offenses they have drawn - C.J. Stroud making his NFL debut on the road behind a makeshift offensive line opening week, a one-legged Joe Burrow in Week 2, backup Gardner Minshew in Week 3, overmatched rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson with no Nick Chubb in Week 4 and the poorly designed Steelers offense with a banged-up Kenny Pickett last week. 

This is a lot of points to lay in a division matchup for the Chiefs. Aside from walloping the Bears, the Chiefs haven't looked that sharp offensively. Discount that Bears game and the Chiefs are averaging 21.7 points in their four other games.

Denver's defense is way down from previous seasons. But it's not as bad as the Dolphins, with their 4X100 team of relay runners, made it look during that 70-20 Week 3 Miami victory.

Patrick Mahomes is still getting acclimated to his young wide receiving group. They are not making Mahomes look good. Mahomes already has thrown four interceptions. Travis Kelce is likely to play, but he's not 100 percent. The weather conditions favor more running than usual with the wind factor at 15-25 mph. The total has gone way down because of that.

Isiah Pacheco has emerged as Kansas City's top runner. Nothing against Pacheco, but backing Denver I'd rather see much more of him than Mahomes. The Broncos are expected to get back from injury their best running back, Javonte Williams.

As bad as the Broncos were last season, they played the Chiefs tough in both games losing, 34- 28 and 27-24. The Broncos are supposed to be better coached this year.

Certainly the Broncos won't lack motivation knowing they have a chance to redeem themselves for their disappointing season. Note that two of Denver's four losses were by a combined three points. If the Broncos would have won those games and not blown a second-half lead against the Jets last week, they would be 4-1 and the point spread would be much lower.

If home field is worth 3 points then the oddsmaker is saying San Francisco is barely better than Dallas.

I disagree. In my view, the 49ers are the best team in football right now and it's not that close.

These teams have current history. The 49ers have eliminated the Cowboys in the postseason each of the past two seasons winning, 19-12 last season and 23-17 two seasons ago. I don't expect this game to be that close.

The 49ers have been ridiculously dominant at Levi's Stadium covering 15 of their last 17 games there. All but three of those victories came by double-digits. San Francisco has won by at least two TD's in eight of Brock Purdy's nine home starts. Christian McCaffrey would get my MVP vote right now having gained 100 yards from scrimmage and scored at least one TD in all four of the 49ers' games.

The Cowboys are a good team, but not great like the 49ers. Dallas lost to the Cardinals two weeks ago, 28-16. The 49ers just whipped the Cardinals, 35-16, this past Sunday.

The 49ers were 5-for-5 scoring TD's inside the red zone against Arizona. The Cowboys have red zone issues scoring only seven TD's in 19 trips inside the red zone. The Cowboys have fatten up their scoring statistics by getting three TD's from their defense/special teams.

Dallas' brain trust of Brian Scottenheimer and increased input from Mike McCarthy isn't trustworthy against this caliber of defense. The Cowboys were better off when they had Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator last year.

Perhaps this is nitpicking because the Eagles are unbeaten after all. But they haven't looked very good at least compared to last season.

The Rams, on the other hand, have been better than perceived. Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level, Puka Nacua has put up Cooper Kupp-type numbers and LA's defense has shown solid improvement. Aaron Donald still is around to create havoc.

The Eagles are traveling cross-country following an overtime division win against the Commanders. So this isn't a great spot for them.

Philly's glaring weakness is pass defense. They rank 27th. Stafford and Co. can take advantage of that - and that's not figuring Kupp is going to play. If he does, it's just an added bonus. The Eagles have surrendered 28 points to the Vikings and 31 to the Commanders.

The Rams should be well prepared for this non-division matchup. They just faced the Colts and their mobile QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts have Eagles tendencies coached by Shane Steichen, who was the Eagles' offensive coordinator last season.

 I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.

Joe Burrow is supposed to be the healthiest he's been all season, according to Zac Taylor, and the Cardinals are a bottom-five caliber opponent.

Even if he's just 75 percent, Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should enjoy success against an Arizona defense that gave up 31 points to the Giants and allowed Brock Purdy to go 20-of-21 passing while averaging 13.5 yards per completion last week.

The Bengals have also been a major disappointment defensively. I expect a turnaround as Joshua Dobbs is the worst QB and his skill position weapons are the worst the Bengals have faced all season.

The Cardinals aren't demoralized yet. They have played hard. But they could be the least-talented team in the NFL. The Bengals won't be overlooking them as other opponents have.

I get that the Titans are considered an Under team. But the Colts rank 29th in total defense and struggle against Derrick Henry, who has topped 100 yards rushing against Indy in six of the past seven meetings. The lone time he didn't reach that figure was when he suffered a broken foot.

Tennessee is averaging 27.8 points in its last seven games against Indianapolis. The Colts' defense carries a high fatigue rating having been involved in overtime games the last two weeks. Indy's defense was on the field for more than 32 minutes against Baltimore chasing Lamar Jackson and for nearly 40 minutes against the Rams this past Sunday. The bruising Henry is about the last running back the Colts want to face.

The Titans' offensive line could improve immensely with the return of tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere from suspension and if guard Peter Skoronski can play after being out with illness. Those are their two best offensive linemen.

Again, the bar is not set high going against the Colts' defense. It's an added plus playing on a fast track inside Indy's dome stadium.

Early reports on Shane Steichen are very positive. He's an aggressive, offensive guru who has helped accelerate the progress of rookie QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts showed no quit last week rallying from 23 points down in the second half against the Rams to force overtime. Richardson's effective dual threat talents can only be helped by the expected return of star running back Jonathan Taylor.

The Titans rank 23rd in pass defense. They've managed just three takeaways.

The Bears showed signs of finding their offensive identity this past Sunday in a 31-28 home loss to the Broncos. But their defense remains horrible. It's a prime reason why the Over has cashed in all four of Chicago's games this season.

Chicago had the worst defense last season and there hasn't been any improvement. The Bears are giving up 34.3 points, rank 29th in pass defense and have only two sacks.

Washington's defense has been disappointing. The Commanders are surrendering 30 points a game.

Both teams have mobile, young QB's backed by good wide receivers.

Justin Fields threw for a career-best 335 yards and four TD's against Denver. He has D.J. Moore, a ''B'' level wide receiver, to target along with emerging tight end Cole Kmet.

Sam Howell has his own ''B'' level wideout, Terry McLaurin, along with reliable Jahan Dotson to go against a banged-up Chicago secondary. The Bears have given up 25 or more points in each of their last 14 games.

The Commanders also have one of the more respected offensive coordinators, Eric Bieniemy.

It comes down to this. The Seahawks are at least a tier better than the Giants. New York isn't very good right now. The Giants are lucky to be 1-2 having led for the grand total of 19 seconds this season.

Seattle gets back one of its top defensive players, versatile safety Jamal Adams, while the Giants are likely to be missing two of their three best offensive players with left tackle Andrew Thomas ruled out and Saquon Barkley doubtful with an ankle injury.

Since laying an egg against the Rams opening week, the Seahawks have beaten the Lions on the road and Panthers. Seattle scored 37 points in each of those wins. I like the Seahawks' skill position players much better than the Giants especially if Barkley is a no-good.

The Giants will have a different offensive line for the fourth time in four weeks. They rank in the bottom-four in points, total yards and passing yards. Daniel Jones has been sacked an average of four times per game.

New York is equally bad on defense. The Giants have no takeaways. They rank in the bottom-five in scoring defense and run defense. I expect emerging star Kenneth Walker III to have a big rushing game thus setting up Geno Smith for effective play-action passes.

The teams met in Seattle last season. The Seahawks won, 27-13.

The Seahawks have a fantastic record in prime-time games under Pete Carroll going 33-14-1 for 70 percent. Seattle won't be holding anything back either being idle this week following this game.

No matter how good of a defense you have, it doesn't matter if your offense can't score. The Jets' offense has generated three TD's in three games with Zach Wilson. That's not going to cut it against many teams. Certainly not against the high-powered defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes deservedly gets all the attention. But quietly the Chiefs' defense has emerged as a very good stop unit. Kansas City is giving up only 13.3 points per game having faced the Lions, Jaguars and Bears. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-fewest points and seventh-fewest yards per game.

Kansas City has a dominant pass rusher in Chris Jones. The Jets' offensive line hasn't been very good. But even when given time, Wilson still ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks in passer ratings when afforded decent protection.

The Chiefs' attack is potent with a healthy Travis Kelce and he's back healthy.

This is a low total given how explosive the Cowboys can be with Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb.

The key is how many points can New England come in with? Don't be surprised if the Patriots score far more than you think.

The Patriots have played two of their three games in bad weather. They produced 382 yards of offense against a strong Eagles defense. New England has missed field goals and had costly turnovers inside Miami territory in its game against the Dolphins.

New England has played against the Eagles and Jets already, two of the better defenses in the league. Dallas' defense took a massive hit with its star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffering a season-ending knee injury during practice last week.

The Patriots' offensive line is improved with key players back. Ezekiel Elliott showed he still has some juice rushing for 80 yards against the Jets last week, averaging 5.0 yards a carry.

The Cowboys surrendered 28 points and 400 yards to the Cardinals this past week. Joshua Dobbs threw for 182 yards on just 21 attempts. James Connor rushed for 98 yards while averaging 7.0 yards a carry. Mac Jones is better than Dobbs and Rhamondre Stevenson is superior to Connor.

These teams have an Over history, too. They met two seasons ago and Dallas won, 35-29.

While I don't expect 64 points to be scored again, it's not a daunting task for these teams to go Over this number.

I'm not expecting Derek Carr to play. But I make no drop-off from Carr to Jameis Winston. Either of those two is better than Baker Mayfield. 

The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension. He'll have fresh legs. Tampa Bay just yielded 201 yards rushing to the Eagles this past Monday. Note that game was played on Monday so the Buccaneers are traveling on a short week. 

Tampa Bay still has good defenders. But New Orleans has a very good defense. The Saints have held their last six opponents to an average of 13.3 points a game. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in their last 11 games. 

The Buccaneers rank 25th in total yards, 27th in rushing and third-from-last in red zone touchdown percentage. 

The Dolphins are on top of the world after their 70-20 burial of the Broncos. Miami deserves all the plaudits. Lost in the glare of the Dolphins' pin-ball attack, though, are the Bills.

After losing in overtime to the fired-up Jets opening Monday night, Buffalo has gotten untracked rolling past the Raiders and Commanders by the combined score of 75-13.

The Bills have defeated Miami seven straight times at home. Buffalo is 6-1 in its last seven home games, including defeating the Dolphins twice during this span.

The Dolphins appear improved. But the Bills still have the better quarterback with Josh Allen and the superior defense. Miami should get back Jaylen Waddle, however, offensive left tackle Terron Armstead is likely to be out again. The Bills have the pass rushers to take advantage of that.

I see this as a buy-low opportunity on the Bills because the Dolphins are off such a mind-boggling performance against an 0-3 team.

Yes, Jim Schwartz has made a difference as the Browns' new defensive coordinator. Cleveland's defense has improved. But I'm not buying its dominant numbers of giving up just 10.7 points a game and 163.7 yards, both of which are the best in the NFL.

Consider just who the Browns have played. They met the Bengals and a rusty Joe Burrow opening week. They then faced a Steelers offense going through growing pains with second-year QB Kenny Pickett and maybe the league's worst offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. After that it was the impotent Titans, who have the worst offensive line in the NFL coupled with over-the-hill skill position players.

Now the Browns draw Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has looked good running again. The Ravens' offensive line is healthy again for the first time in two weeks with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum back practicing. Gus Edwards also is expected to play, giving Baltimore a legitimate power runner. Jackson has had three games to learn the Ravens' new emphasis on downfield passing. He has the best receivers he's ever had.

Deshaun Watson is off his finest game since joining the Browns, completing 81.8 percent of his passes for 289 yards and two TD's against the Titans last week. He should have had a third TD throw, but the referee made a mistake blowing his whistle thinking Amari Cooper had stepped out of bounds after a catch when Cooper had not. Like Jackson, Watson has the best receivers he's ever had in his career.

The totals bar is set low here. It's not asking too much for each of these teams to produce 20 points.

How wretched are the Bears? 

The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them.

And Denver is the right side. 

Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. 

The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. 

The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. 

One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears.