The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers.

The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. 

The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. 

Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. 

The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing. 

The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling.

Dallas could be the best team in the NFL when playing at home. The Cowboys have won 16 games in a row at AT&T Stadium. That includes an 8-0 mark this season with the average winning margin being 21.5 points.

Green Bay is the youngest team in the NFL. The Packers had no Pro Bowl players. None. They are 28th in run defense. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with an ankle injury. Joe Barry is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league. He will not have answers, nor innovations, to slow down Dallas' high-powered attack.

The Cowboys were the top-scoring team in the NFL. Dak Prescott was first in touchdown passes. He has a 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home. CeeDee Lamb is right there with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill as the best wide receiver in football.

Before closing out their regular season facing the Vikings' rookie fourth-string quarterback and the Bears, the Packers surrendered 34 points to the Buccaneers at home. They made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana. Then Green Bay gave up 30 points to the Panthers. Carolina ranked last in yards gained and second-to-last in points. The Panthers were shut out in their final two games after playing Green Bay.

The Packers, Jordan Love and their many young receivers are in the development stage. The Cowboys have gone 12-5 each of the last three seasons making the playoffs each year. They are far ahead of the Packers at this juncture.

The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed.

Both the Dallas and Philadelphia Sunday games go later in the afternoon. The Eagles will be monitoring the Cowboys-Commanders matchup. If that game goes as expected with Dallas winning, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is going to want to pull Jalen Hurts and other starters not wanting to risk injury.

But even if the Eagles starters play the entire game - which I don't anticipate - the Giants are capable of beating Philadelphia straight-up.

New York would be 4-3 in its last seven games if not for a one-point loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Tyrod Taylor is the right quarterback choice. The Giants' offensive line has gotten healthier. Darren Waller has returned at tight end.

The Eagles' defense is gassed. They are giving up 31.5 points a game during their last six games. They miss Jonathan Gannon, their defensive coordinator from last season who now coaches the Cardinals. Gannon's Cardinals ran for 221 yards and never punted in beating the Eagles, 35-31, this past Sunday at Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley is better than James Conner or any runner Arizona has.

Just because the Steelers are in a must-win spot to keep their playoff hopes alive, doesn't mean they will win. Yes, I understand the Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will be sitting out multiple starters, including Lamar Jackson.

But John Harbaugh doesn't like losing, especially to Baltimore's bitter rival, which is Pittsburgh.

The Ravens have excellent depth and revenge for a frustrating 17-10 Week 5 loss to the Steelers when Baltimore turned the ball over three times.

Harbaugh has shown how much he hates losing as the Ravens are 24-2 in their last 26 preseason games. Baltimore also has covered 77 percent of the time the past 31 instances it has been an underdog going 24-7 ATS.

Tyler Huntley will be starting instead of Jackson. But he's no worse, if not better, than Pittsburgh's QB, immobile Mason Rudolph, who was Mike Tomlin's third choice at quarterback after Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky.

The Steelers have injuries at linebacker and in the secondary so they also will have reserves in their lineup.

The Chiefs are not an elite team right now. But the Bengals aren't even a playoff team without Joe Burrow and D.J. Reader to fortify the team's run defense. So I'm going to buy low on the Chiefs to beat the Bengals by more than a touchdown at home.

This feels like an overdue blowout victory for the Chiefs off one of their worst losses of the Patrick Mahomes era.

The Bengals have faced backup quarterbacks each of the last three games. Now they get Mahomes after just surrendering 34 points to the Steelers and Mason Rudolph.

Just like Joshua Dobbs and Tommy DeVito, the magic is wearing off on backup QB Jake Browning. These reserve quarterbacks become exposed once opponents see enough of them and fully realize their many limitations.

The Chiefs rank No. 2 in the NFL in fewest points and yards. I don't see Browning doing much against this strong of a defense on the road, especially if he doesn't get Ja'Marr Chase back.

The demoralized Broncos aren't making the playoffs for the eighth straight season. Because of that and financial considerations, they could sit out Russell Wilson. Jarrett Stidham is Denver's backup QB. That's a huge dropoff.

The Chargers showed new life in their first game without fired coach Brandon Staley nearly upsetting the Bills. Staley was holding the Chargers back with his terrible on-field decisions and hurting team morale.

Denver already has lost four times as a home favorite. The last coming to the Patriots in gut-punching fashion this past Sunday night.

The Chargers usually keep games close. They have lost six games by three or fewer points. The Chargers have had a chance to adjust to new QB Easton Stick and want to keep sticking it to the unpopular Staley by playing hard for popular interim coach Giff Smith.

This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly.

The Cowboys return home following a close road loss to the Dolphins. Dallas has been absolutely dominant at home and very strong, too, off a loss.
Dallas is 7-0 at home. The Cowboys' average winning margin at home is 24.4 points. Dallas also is 8-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons following a defeat.

The Lions are in a major letdown spot after capturing their first division crown in 30 years.

Dallas is second in the NFL in scoring at 30.1 points a game. Detroit also has a good offense. The difference is defense. The Cowboys give up the fifth-fewest points per game at 19.1. The Lions have permitted an average of 26.8 points during their last nine games. Detroit ranks 24th in scoring defense and 23rd in pass defense.

Dak Prescott has a 122.5 passer rating at home and a home mark of 20 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.

There's also a 10-figure gap in turnover ratio. Dallas is plus 8 in takeaways/giveaways while the Lions are minus-2.

Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's.

So as good as San Francisco is, I'm not turning down this many points with Baltimore.

This may be the game of the year. But as strange as it may sound, this is not a crucial game for the 49ers. San Francisco can lose to Baltimore and still earn the No. 1 NFC seed in the playoffs by winning its final two games. Those games are against the 4-11 Commanders and Rams at home.

My handicap is based almost entirely on being pro-Ravens rather than anti-49ers. But San Francisco did give up 234 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. The 49ers hadn't allowed that many yards on the ground in six seasons. Perhaps a possible red flag? The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. They've run for at least 100 yards in 30 straight games.

Both teams have Super Bowl-caliber defenses. The Ravens have surrendered 20 touchdowns, which is the fewest in the league. Baltimore has permitted one touchdown or fewer in nine games. That's by far the best mark in the NFL.

Brock Purdy is a pocket passer. He has outstanding weapons that he utilizes well. Jackson is his own weapon. He's the most mobile quarterback the 49ers have faced and by far the best dual-threat they've seen.

There is one thing the Commanders have excelled at this season, covering as a road underdog. They are 5-1 ATS in that role.

The Rams left nothing on the field in taking a tough road overtime loss to the Ravens last Sunday. It was an extremely physical game. The Rams looked like the superior team. But now the Rams are in the favorite's role against a rested Washington team that finally had its bye week. The Commanders desperately needed to rest and regroup having lost four in a row. It's one of many unfair things about the NFL that some teams had to wait until Week 14 to get their bye.

The Commanders are horrible on defense especially in pass coverage. However, they have skill position talent and quarterback Sam Howell is resilient and resourceful. He can keep the Commanders in this contest against a below-average Los Angeles defense that has just 11 takeaways, third-lowest in the league.

The Rams host the Saints this coming Thursday in what shapes up to be a tougher game and more meaningful in their playoff chase. So this matchup looms as a letdown spot.

I'm selling high on the Bears, who have won three of their last four games but haven't faced an elite defense like this on the road all season.

Chicago is in a fat-and-happy mood having won two straight NFC North Division games upsetting the Vikings on the road and Lions at home this past Sunday.

Cleveland gives up the fewest yards in the NFL. The Browns also are a far stronger defensive team at home. Toss out the Ravens game and the Browns have held their other six home opponents to an average of 10 points a game.

Joe Flacco has solidified the Browns' quarterback spot with his veteran presence and threat of a deep pass. He's 38, but his arm is still there.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do.

The Chiefs are still mad and fired-up about the way they lost to the Bills last week. They are going to be up for this game. Kansas City has too much offense for New England.

The Patriots and Bailey Zappe didn't suddenly get good by virtue of their 21-18 victory against the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh is terrible going 1-4 in its last five games averaging 13.4 points during this span.

New England's defense is sound, but it's going to break under the weight of the Chiefs' well-designed attack and the ineptitude of the Patriot offense. The Patriots had scored a combined 13 points during their previous three games before beating the Steelers. New England is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL averaging 13 points a game. Zappe is not a starting-caliber quarterback and the Patriots remain without their one decent skill position player, injured Rhamondre Stevenson.

This also was the week where news broke about this possibly being Bill Belichick's last season in New England. Belichick hasn't had the locker room all season. So this distracting news is going to be more of a negative than a motivational factor.

When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. 

The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. 

Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  

The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. 

Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. 

Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. 

Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. 

Dallas is 9-3. The Cowboys have crushed a lot of bad teams. They've faced only two above .500 opponents, though, and lost those two games, falling to the Eagles and 49ers.

I think of the Cowboys as a bully. Now they get their rematch with the Eagles. You know what you're getting with the Eagles - an elite, resilient team that is well-coached. I can't say that about the Cowboys.

I wonder if the Cowboys' preparation wasn't thrown off by Mike McCarthy undergoing surgery for an acute appendicitis on Wednesday?

The Eagles have fortified themselves after getting blasted by the 49ers at home this past Sunday. Dallas Goedert, a top-five tight end, is expected to play after missing the last three games. Goedert opens the middle of the field for Jalen Hurts and makes things easier for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

The Eagles also upgraded their defense by signing three-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard.

The Rams were able to bully a bad Cardinals defense last week. They won't be able to do that against an elite, well-coached Browns defense.

Cleveland is the better team. But because of its quarterback situation with Joe Flacco starting we have an inflated line on the Rams.

The line is shaded to the Rams, too, because of Cleveland injuries. However, I expect both Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper to both play. Cooper actually is excited about Flacco starting because of Flacco's ability to throw deep.

If you discount the Rams' overtime victory against the Colts, their only wins have been against the Cardinals and Seahawks. LA has lost both to the Bengals and Steelers. The Browns defeated the Bengals and split with the Steelers.

The Rams are a finesse team. The Browns are extremely physical. It's a bad matchup for the Rams and because of that this game is priced incorrectly.

The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game.

I find the 49ers to be the most complete team in the NFC when healthy, which they are now. The Eagles rank 29th on pass defense. That is a potentially fatal flaw.

Philadelphia also isn't as healthy as San Francisco with a banged-up receiver corps.

San Francisco is the more rested team having last played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles defense was on the field for a staggering 92 plays in their overtime victory against the Bills last Sunday. Buffalo produced 505 yards against the Eagles.

The 49ers have much to prove here. The Eagles, on the other hand, actually have a bigger game on deck when they face the Cowboys on the road next Sunday night.

It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas.

The Cowboys have been invincible at home winning 13 in a row. They are 5-0 SU and ATS this season at AT&T Stadium. All five of the Cowboys' home victories have been by at least 20 points. These wins have come against the Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants and Commanders.

Not good competition. But then again Seattle isn't very good right now. Seattle is 1-3 in its last four games with the lone victory during this span coming against Washington. Smith is cold and dealing with a sore elbow. Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks' best runner, isn't expected to play. The Seahawks have only scored three touchdowns offensively during their last four games.

I don't see Smith keeping pace with Dak Prescott, who is the hottest quarterback in the NFL with an 18-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

This clearly is a buy low on the Commanders sell high on the Cowboys play. 

It's just plain too many points in this long-time bitter division rivalry. If the Commanders lose big here on national TV, Ron Rivera could be fired on Black Friday. You have to believe the Commanders are primed to provide their best effort.

But will it be good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Dallas?

Yes. Washington looked horrible in losing to the Giants last week. Let's not forget, though, how tough the Commanders played the Eagles in both of their meetings this season,  losing the first one in overtime and the second, 38-31, after leading in the fourth quarter. 

The Cowboys have played nine of their 11 games against below .500 opponents. Unlike some of the Cowboys' victims such as the Panthers, Giants, Patriots and Jets, the Commanders have back-door capabilities with a top-10 passing attack spearheaded by mobile and resilient Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in passing yards. 

The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup.

After that game, Lombardi said the Packers would never again play the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Packers should have followed Lombardi's wishes because this is a terrible situational spot for them.

As the Lions ascend, the Packers descend. Green Bay is 2-5 in its last seven games. The short week really hurts the Packers here as they won't have Aaron Jones and may not have A.J. Dillon, who has a groin injury. The Packers are in free agent country without those two running backs. They also could be without two of their better receivers with Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave questionable.

The Packers have been depleted in the secondary with possibly all four starters out. They were hoping to get some of them back, but this early-week game is a hindrance to that. Expect Jared Goff to have a much better game than he had against the Bears last week. Goff was on his way to his worst game of the season throwing a season-high three interceptions against the Bears. Yet Detroit still pulled out a five-point victory.

Green Bay was much more optimistic when it hosted the Lions in late September. That was on a Thursday, too. The Packers laid an egg falling behind, 27-3, at halftime before losing, 34-20. The poorly coached Packers defense couldn't contain straight-ahead runner David Montgomery, who rushed for 121 yards and powered to three touchdowns.

It was the fourth straight time the Lions have defeated Green Bay. Look for the Lions to make it five straight victories in convincing fashion.

The Texans are 5-0 as an underdog this season. However, when favored they are 0-3 ATS this season. Until this season, the Texans hadn't been favored in 22 consecutive games. Yes, Houston is much improved thanks to C.J. Stroud and better coaching. But the Texans are overpriced because this isn't the Cardinals of past weeks.

Arizona welcomed Kyler Murray back this past Sunday against the Falcons. Murray showed he hasn't lost his magical ability to escape pressure and be a big-time quarterback. The Falcons found that out first-hand losing to the Cardinals.

The offensive season statistics of the Cardinals should be tossed out. Their offense is much more dangerous now with Murray, who has all his weapons healthy with Marquise Brown, James Conner, Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore and emerging tight end force Trey McBride. Murray can attack a banged-up Houston secondary that ranks 24th.

As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. 

Poorly coached on defense and way too inexperienced on offense, the Packers are rapidly heading toward lower-echelon status with their only victory in their last six games coming against the Brett Rypien-led Rams at home. 

Justin Herbert can light up a vulnerable, banged-up Green Bay secondary that was forced to start inexperienced backup cornerbacks Carrington Valetine and Corey Ballentine last Sunday. 

Jordan Love has an 8-to-13 touchdown-to-giveaway ratio in his last seven games. The Chargers can protect their secondary because they have some excellent pass rushers and Green Bay's offensive line has regressed to mediocre status.

The Chargers catch a weather break, too, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the high 40's with no rain and little wind.

The timing is right to back the Jets off their Monday night home loss to the Chargers while the Raiders rode the excitement and relief of having Josh McDaniels finally getting fired to a victory against the lowly Giants.

Those results have made the Jets underpriced here and the Raiders overpriced.

Let's start with the Raiders. Their defense is bad even with Maxx Crosby. Rookie Aidan O'Connell isn't any better than Zach Wilson. Davante Adams is wasted in the Raiders' offense. Adams has caught five passes for 45 yards the last two weeks. He hasn't gone above 57 yards receiving in his last five games.

Canning McDaniels was the right thing to do for the Raiders. But interim coach Antonio Pierce isn't a head coach. The Raiders rode enthusiasm and a historically bad Giants offense to an easy victory last week. Pierce didn't really have to do anything. That rare emotion from the Raiders is not sustainable. Pierce is going to find himself way over his head similar to Jeff Saturday with the Colts last year.

The Jets' defense is at least two levels higher, if not three levels above the Raiders. The Jets like to believe they are serious playoff contenders owning victories against the Bills and Eagles. If they are, they can't afford to lose to this opponent.

It's the Jets who should be the more motivated team this week following a bad home loss on Monday night. Getting out of New York actually should work in their favor.

The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory.

Now the Seahawks drop down from playing the best defense to one of the worst - and they get the Commanders at home. Washington was terrible defensively before they dealt Chase Young and Montez Sweat away. Now the Commanders don't have a pass rush to go with their vulnerable secondary.

Pete Carroll is going to have the Seahawks ready to play following the debacle against the Ravens.

Geno Smith can look good against a bottom-five defense given the weapons Seattle has.

Seattle's defense had been looking pretty good until that Ravens game. The Seahawks had held their previous four opponents to an average of 12.5 points. Washington has become a one-dimensional passing team. Sam Howell has good statistics because the Commanders have become so heavily pass-oriented. But he's average at best and the Commanders have trouble protecting him giving up 44 sacks, second-most in the NFL.

Note, too, the situational aspects. Not only are the Seahawks returning home following a humiliating loss, Washington is fat and happy after beating Bill Belichick's Patriots. This marks Washington's second consecutive road game and an East to West travel itinerary. The Commanders' last seven games all have been played on East Coast time.

After three consecutive losses - one of which occurred against the Browns on a missed 41-yard field goal with six seconds left - I'm buying low on the 49ers.

Each team is off their bye. The timing works out much better for San Francisco. I'm expecting Deebo Samuel and offensive left tackle Trent Williams to return to the 49ers' lineup following the extra time off. That will make Brock Purdy reach peak efficiency again.

Jacksonville entered its bye winning and covering five in a row. That momentum could get stalled.

The Jaguars have come up with 18 takeaways, an average of 2.2 per game. If the 49ers play a clean game, they should win being the superior team.

Trevor Lawrence remains inconsistent. He's going to encounter a strong 49ers defense that will be bolstered by the return to health of underrated linebacker Dre Greenlaw and the addition of defensive line stud Chase Young from the Commanders. Nick Bosa is way overdue for a big game, too. It could come here.

The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night.

Only once in their last 10 games, have the Chargers won two in a row. The Jets have played the tougher schedule and are 3-1 at home this season with point spread covers against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. They've beaten the Bills and Eagles straight-up, teams better than the Chargers.

Justin Herbert is off his finest game of the year. However, he was facing the Bears, who have no pass rush and entered this Week 9 ranked third-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

The Jets' defense is really hitting their stride with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed back from injuries. The Jets rank fifth in pass defense. They've held their last three opponents to an average of 15 points a game.

Minus All-Pro center Corey Linsley, Herbert was sacked five times by the Chiefs two weeks ago. Herbert also is without two of his three best wide receivers with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer both out.  

Zach Wilson should have one of his better games. The Chargers give up 24 points a game and rank 31st in pass defense.

If there's one game Panthers coach Frank Reich wants to win more than any other it's this one against the Colts, a team he was fired from after coaching them the previous five years.

Are the 1-6 Panthers capable of that?

The buy sign is on after Carolina came out of its bye week with a 15-13 home win against the Texans. The Panthers were better offensively because they made a switch in play-callers going to Thomas Brown, who wasn't afraid to let Bryce Young throw on first down. The Panthers also made a smart move decreasing the role of Miles Sanders, who is one of the worst running backs in the league.

The Colts can't be road chalk because of their horrendous defense. They are giving up an NFL-worst 28.6 points per game. Indy ranks 28th in total defense. If anything, the Colts' defense is getting worse allowing an average of 38 points in their past three games. They just surrendered 38 points and 511 yards to a moribund Saints offense last week at home.

The game hasn't even started and already Clayton Tune is hearing Myles Garrett's footsteps. 

I didn't want to jump the gun on this one, but now that we know Deshaun Watson will be under center for Cleveland instead of P.J. Walker and the rookie Tune will be in the Lion's Den not mobile Kyler Murray, I'm going to lay the wood with Cleveland. 

This is a give-up game for the Cardinals. If it weren't, they would have held on to Joshua Dobbs, or started Murray. Tune is facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game and also ranks No. 1 in pass defense. He doesn't have a reliable running back either with James Conner a week away from returning. 

Watson was coming off his best game as a Brown on Sept. 24 against the Titans where he was 27-of-33 passing for 289 yards and two TD's. His QB rating was 123.4. However, he's thrown just five passes since then as the Browns have given him the baby treatment holding him out of games. But now Watson is ready.

He gets an Arizona defense that ranks in the bottom-seven in scoring defense and defensive total yards. 

Both the Raiders and Lions were humbled last week. The Lions were destroyed, 38-6, by the Ravens while the Raiders were embarrassed by the Bears, 30-12, who were giving rookie QB Tyson Bagent his first NFL start.

The Lions are a legitimate, good team. The Raiders aren't. I like the Lions to bounce back in a big way hosting their first nationally televised Monday night home game since 2018.

Detroit had won four consecutive games, all by double-digits, before losing to the Ravens.

Jared Goff plays much better at home inside a dome where cold and wind don't factor. The Lions remain without injured David Montgomery, but rookie Jahmyr Gibbs stepped up against the Ravens amassing 126 total yards and showing why he was a first-round draft pick.

Detroit's defense is much improved, especially against the run. But the Lions have trouble against mobile QB's. Lamar Jackson really hurt them last week. Jimmy Garoppolo is anything but mobile. He's also turnover-prone. The Raiders entered this Week 8 committing the most turnovers in the NFL with 15. Garoppolo has eight interceptions in just five games.

Las Vegas averages just 16 points a game and entered this week last in rushing, which doesn't say much for the highly disappointing Josh Jacobs.

The Bears are the Packers' oldest rival. But it's the Vikings who the Packers want to beat more than any other team. It has been that way for years. The spot sets up perfect for Green Bay to do just that.

The Vikings are coming off a stunning upset home win against the 49ers this past Monday now. That was their second win in a row having beaten the Bears during the NFL debut of rookie QB Tyson Bagent two weeks ago.

Minnesota is weak defensively, lacks a good ground attack and its passing game is down several notches without Justin Jefferson. The Vikings are an average team at best. They come into Green Bay on a short week flush with short-term success. They'll find a desperate Packers team with their season and manhood hanging in the balance following three straight losses, two coming on the road to the Raiders and Broncos, whose combined record is 5-9.

The Packers are an average team like the Vikings, but this is a great spot for them. They haven't played at home in four weeks and they get their best offensive player, Aaron Jones, back from injury. Jordan Love desperately needs Jones especially against the blitz-happy Vikings.

Love isn't as good as he looked during the first three games. But he isn't as bad as he's looked during the last three games.

Kirk Cousins is more turnover-prone than Love. The Vikings have committed 14 turnovers, which is second-most in the NFL next to the Raiders.

The Vikings played their first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday. They managed only 220 yards of total offense, reaching the red zone just once. Yet they managed to win because they were playing the Bears, who had lost Justin Fields to injury during the game.

The 49ers don't need Christian McCaffrey to beat the Vikings.

San Francisco is in a huge bounce-back spot after getting upset by the Browns in Cleveland last Sunday. That game was played in windy conditions, which bothered Brock Purdy. This game is being played in a dome and Purdy is stepping down in defensive class going from the No. 1 defense to a below average one that will be minus one of its best interior players with Marcus Davenport out.

The 49ers were averaging 33.4 points looking like the best team in the NFL before running into the Browns. Even with that loss, San Francisco has covered 13 of its last 17 games.

The Vikings are going to struggle to dent a 49ers defense that gives up the fewest points per game, ranks No. 3 in fewest yards allowed and has 11 takeaways. San Francisco has the best turnover ratio in the league at plus 8, while the Vikings are minus 7 in takeaways/giveaways.

This is a lot of points to lay in a division matchup for the Chiefs. Aside from walloping the Bears, the Chiefs haven't looked that sharp offensively. Discount that Bears game and the Chiefs are averaging 21.7 points in their four other games.

Denver's defense is way down from previous seasons. But it's not as bad as the Dolphins, with their 4X100 team of relay runners, made it look during that 70-20 Week 3 Miami victory.

Patrick Mahomes is still getting acclimated to his young wide receiving group. They are not making Mahomes look good. Mahomes already has thrown four interceptions. Travis Kelce is likely to play, but he's not 100 percent. The weather conditions favor more running than usual with the wind factor at 15-25 mph. The total has gone way down because of that.

Isiah Pacheco has emerged as Kansas City's top runner. Nothing against Pacheco, but backing Denver I'd rather see much more of him than Mahomes. The Broncos are expected to get back from injury their best running back, Javonte Williams.

As bad as the Broncos were last season, they played the Chiefs tough in both games losing, 34- 28 and 27-24. The Broncos are supposed to be better coached this year.

Certainly the Broncos won't lack motivation knowing they have a chance to redeem themselves for their disappointing season. Note that two of Denver's four losses were by a combined three points. If the Broncos would have won those games and not blown a second-half lead against the Jets last week, they would be 4-1 and the point spread would be much lower.

If home field is worth 3 points then the oddsmaker is saying San Francisco is barely better than Dallas.

I disagree. In my view, the 49ers are the best team in football right now and it's not that close.

These teams have current history. The 49ers have eliminated the Cowboys in the postseason each of the past two seasons winning, 19-12 last season and 23-17 two seasons ago. I don't expect this game to be that close.

The 49ers have been ridiculously dominant at Levi's Stadium covering 15 of their last 17 games there. All but three of those victories came by double-digits. San Francisco has won by at least two TD's in eight of Brock Purdy's nine home starts. Christian McCaffrey would get my MVP vote right now having gained 100 yards from scrimmage and scored at least one TD in all four of the 49ers' games.

The Cowboys are a good team, but not great like the 49ers. Dallas lost to the Cardinals two weeks ago, 28-16. The 49ers just whipped the Cardinals, 35-16, this past Sunday.

The 49ers were 5-for-5 scoring TD's inside the red zone against Arizona. The Cowboys have red zone issues scoring only seven TD's in 19 trips inside the red zone. The Cowboys have fatten up their scoring statistics by getting three TD's from their defense/special teams.

Dallas' brain trust of Brian Scottenheimer and increased input from Mike McCarthy isn't trustworthy against this caliber of defense. The Cowboys were better off when they had Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator last year.

Perhaps this is nitpicking because the Eagles are unbeaten after all. But they haven't looked very good at least compared to last season.

The Rams, on the other hand, have been better than perceived. Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level, Puka Nacua has put up Cooper Kupp-type numbers and LA's defense has shown solid improvement. Aaron Donald still is around to create havoc.

The Eagles are traveling cross-country following an overtime division win against the Commanders. So this isn't a great spot for them.

Philly's glaring weakness is pass defense. They rank 27th. Stafford and Co. can take advantage of that - and that's not figuring Kupp is going to play. If he does, it's just an added bonus. The Eagles have surrendered 28 points to the Vikings and 31 to the Commanders.

The Rams should be well prepared for this non-division matchup. They just faced the Colts and their mobile QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts have Eagles tendencies coached by Shane Steichen, who was the Eagles' offensive coordinator last season.

 I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.

Joe Burrow is supposed to be the healthiest he's been all season, according to Zac Taylor, and the Cardinals are a bottom-five caliber opponent.

Even if he's just 75 percent, Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should enjoy success against an Arizona defense that gave up 31 points to the Giants and allowed Brock Purdy to go 20-of-21 passing while averaging 13.5 yards per completion last week.

The Bengals have also been a major disappointment defensively. I expect a turnaround as Joshua Dobbs is the worst QB and his skill position weapons are the worst the Bengals have faced all season.

The Cardinals aren't demoralized yet. They have played hard. But they could be the least-talented team in the NFL. The Bengals won't be overlooking them as other opponents have.

No matter how good of a defense you have, it doesn't matter if your offense can't score. The Jets' offense has generated three TD's in three games with Zach Wilson. That's not going to cut it against many teams. Certainly not against the high-powered defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes deservedly gets all the attention. But quietly the Chiefs' defense has emerged as a very good stop unit. Kansas City is giving up only 13.3 points per game having faced the Lions, Jaguars and Bears. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-fewest points and seventh-fewest yards per game.

Kansas City has a dominant pass rusher in Chris Jones. The Jets' offensive line hasn't been very good. But even when given time, Wilson still ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks in passer ratings when afforded decent protection.

The Chiefs' attack is potent with a healthy Travis Kelce and he's back healthy.

I'm not expecting Derek Carr to play. But I make no drop-off from Carr to Jameis Winston. Either of those two is better than Baker Mayfield. 

The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension. He'll have fresh legs. Tampa Bay just yielded 201 yards rushing to the Eagles this past Monday. Note that game was played on Monday so the Buccaneers are traveling on a short week. 

Tampa Bay still has good defenders. But New Orleans has a very good defense. The Saints have held their last six opponents to an average of 13.3 points a game. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in their last 11 games. 

The Buccaneers rank 25th in total yards, 27th in rushing and third-from-last in red zone touchdown percentage. 

How wretched are the Bears? 

The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them.

And Denver is the right side. 

Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. 

The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. 

The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. 

One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears. 

The record shows both the Eagles and Buccaneers to be 2-0. But the Buccaneers are at least two levels behind Philadelphia.

The Eagles, too, are on an extra rest having played in the Week 2 Thursday game. The Eagles are due to play better as their players adjust to new coordinators. The extra rest and practice time should come in handy for them here.

Tampa Bay has beaten the winless Bears and winless Vikings. The Buccaneers are plus 5 in turnover ratio during these victories. The Buccaneers' defense still has good players, but it's not great anymore. I'm not buying the early hype on Baker Mayfield either. He's looked better than he did the previous couple of seasons, but he's still Baker Mayfield with severe limitations.

The Eagles not only have the edges at the skill positions - Jalen Hurts is 19-1 in his last 20 regular-season starts - but also have the advantage in the trenches. Philadelphia is the second-leading rushing team and ranks No. 1 in run defense. Mayfield isn't going to have a run game to keep the Eagles' pass rushers honest. The Eagles easily led the NFL in sacks last season with 70.

The Jaguars beat the Colts by 10 points opening week despite Indy getting a gift defensive TD. The Colts then defeated the Texans by 11 points in Week 2 in a game that was more lopsided than the final score. Now the Jaguars get the Texans.

The oddsmaker and marketplace are down on Jacksonville, though, because of its poor performance against the Chiefs at home last week.

But now the Jaguars don't have to worry about Patrick Mahomes or Chris Jones. I see a strong bounce-back effort from the Jaguars at home against a depleted Texans squad.

Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley are in for a big game against the Texans, who have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Out for the Texans are their top cornerback, Derek Stingley, free safety Jalen Pitre and nickel back Tavierre Thomas. Also hurt and out is Denzel Perryman, one of Houston's better linebackers.

Houston also has multiple injuries in its offensive line. They may get star left tackle Laremy Tunsil back from a knee injury, but remain without three other projected opening day offensive line starters.

The Jaguars' defense is underrated. They gave up 14 points to the Colts' offense and held the Chiefs to 17 points. The Jaguars also have five takeaways, bad news for turnover-prone rookie QB C.J. Stroud.

Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win.

The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL.

I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses.

Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff.

Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers.

This one isn't going to be close.

The Dolphins are not going to draw Bill Belichick's Patriots into a track meet. The Patriots have the superior defense of the two teams. The Patriots offense is improved and the weather conditions are in their favor. So is the situation.

Miami has to be at least a little fat-and-happy crisscrossing the country after beating the Chargers in LA last Sunday and now having to fly to the East Coast where the weather conditions will be different with 10-to-15 mile per hour winds.

The Patriots drew a bad break when the Eagles caught an early gift TD courtesy of their defense last week. But the Patriots showed their grit coming back from a 16-0 deficit to lose, 25-20, to the Super Bowl runner-up. New England outgained Philadelphia, 385-251. The Patriots forced more three-and-outs than the Eagles had all last season.

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill had monster performances against the Chargers. Tagovailoa passed for 466 yards. Hill caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two TD's against the poorly-schemed Chargers defense.

Hill could be the best wide receiver in the AFC. But Belichick isn't going to let this combination beat his team by not paying full attention to Hill like the Chargers failed to do.

The Patriots also have the capability of playing ball-control with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott keeping the chains moving on the ground and the clock running. Mac Jones has upgraded wide receiver depth and much better offensive coaching/play calling than last season with the switch of offensive coordinators from Matt Patricia, a defensive coach, to Bill O'Brien.

Give me the 0-1 home team versus the 1-0 road team. Give me the Denver defense instead of the Commanders offense.

These are the main two factors why I like the Broncos to defeat the Commanders by more than a field goal at Mile High Stadium.

Washington was nip-and-tuck with Arizona, by far the worst team in the NFL, before pulling out a 20-16 home win last week. Commanders QB Sam Howell was sacked six times and committed two turnovers in that loss.

The Commanders were turnover-prone last season committing 23. They still are turnover-prone and the veteran, savvy Denver defense knows how to take advantage.

Russell Wilson didn't set the world ablaze in last Sunday's loss to the Raiders, but he was improved under Sean Payton. Wilson completed 27-of-34 passes for 177 yards and two TD's. I'm expecting Wilson to be much better this season. He's showing signs of that. Payton gives the Broncos more credibility on offense than they've had in the past.

The timing for this matchup couldn't be worse for the Jets. They have to travel on a short week following their roller-coaster emotional Monday night home upset overtime victory against the Bills. Their opponent happens to be the Cowboys, who I rank with the 49ers as being the best teams in the NFL right now. 

Dallas may have the No. 1 defense in the league after adding star cornerback Stephon Gilmore during the off-season. The Cowboys have a devastating pass rush led by Defensive MVP favorite Micah Parsons. Dallas sacked Daniel Jones seven times in its 40-0 destruction of the Giants this past Sunday night. The Cowboys generated pressure on 62 percent of Jones' dropbacks, the fourth-highest pressure rate in the last five years. 

If Aaron Rodgers didn't get hurt against the Bills, he probably wasn't going to survive this game given the Jets' uncertain offensive line play. Zach Wilson has had two years to show he isn't a bust. So far he's done nothing to dispel that. His inaccurate dink-and-dunk approach isn't going to be anywhere close to keeping up with the Cowboys' high-powered offense that has been upgraded with Tony Pollard becoming the lead running back and addition of now-motivated wide receiver Brandin Cooks. 

Yes, the Jets' defense is good. But they aren't going to be able to sustain the motivation and emotional edge they had against the Bills. 

The Giants are going from playing arguably the best team in the NFL, Dallas, to the undisputed worst, the Cardinals.

Elite coach Brian Daboll will be cracking the whip hard after the Giants were humiliated on national television by the Cowboys this past Sunday night. The Giants draw the perfect patsy to retain their identity and get their self-respect back.

All the Giants need to do to cover this number is play a relatively clean game, something the Commanders couldn't do last week when they beat the Cardinals but failed to cover.

Daniel Jones has the most speed he's had at wide receiver and an elite tight end in Darren Waller to go with top-five running back Saquan Barkley.

The Cardinals' pop-gun attack can't compete against that with no threat of a downfield passing attack.

Are the Jets ready for prime time? The answer is yes and they'll prove that here.

Buffalo could only average 18.5 points in its two games against the Jets when the teams split last season. The Jets defense looks even better this season and their offense is far better with Aaron Rodgers on board.

The prideful Rodgers is at his best when he feels he has something to prove after being with the Packers for 15 seasons. During his time in Green Bay, Rodgers was a home underdog just eight times as a starting quarterback. The Packers covered seven of those eight games.

Rodgers is rejuvenated and has better weapons than he's had with emerging superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook along with his two Green Bay security blankets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Buffalo's defense is down from last season with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds gone, edge pass rusher Von Miller injured and the secondary aged and banged-up.

I like the Jets' roster better than Buffalo's.

Jets fans haven't been this excited about their team's Super Bowl chances since Joe Namath was making bold predictions. New York's home field is worth more than it normally is given these Monday night and Rodgers' Jets debut circumstances.

Getting points is just a bonus.

It's easy to rip on the Cowboys for their lack of playoff success. But what about the Giants and Daniel Jones? They don't get a pass now that they've become playoff contenders under Brian Daboll.

After a fast start, the Giants finished 3-6-1 last season. Opponents started keying on Saquan Barkley, holding him to an average of 58 yards rushing during the final 10 games. Jones failed to pick up the slack.

When it comes to prime time, Danny Dimes should be Danny Pennies. Jones is 1-10 in prime-time games.

Jones threw only 15 TD's passes last season. He's not as good as Dak Prescott. The Giants aren't as talented as the Cowboys on either side of the ball.

So there's no reason to overthink this matchup.

Dallas is 11-1 in its last dozen games versus the Giants. This includes a pair of victories last season by seven and eight points, respectively.

Prescott has weapons. I rate Tony Pollard ahead of Barkley. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks give the Cowboys the two best wide receivers.

Jones' major receiving weapon, tight end Darren Waller, is questionable with a hamstring.

Green Bay is flat out the better team. The Packers were five games better than Chicago last season. Does Aaron Rodgers make that big of a difference? Rodgers didn't have a good year by his lofty standards.

Jordan Love, surrounded by a top-10 offensive line and exciting skill position talent and stud running back Aaron Jones, is serviceable at the very minimum. That's enough to beat the Bears, who can't compare to the Packers in either the offensive line or defensive line.

Justin Fields can be a highlight reel. But Chicago is 5-20 SU, 8-16-1 ATS in his 25 starts. Love can throw downfield. Fields has yet to prove he can.

Green Bay has owned the Bears, too, winning 13 of the last 14. Sure much of that was Rodgers. But the Packers play the Bears with a lot of confidence. Green Bay wants to show right away it can win with Love and are no longer dependent on Rodgers.

Don't get suckered by the Vikings 13-4 record last season. They were the luckiest team in the NFL going 11-0 in one-score games. They actually had a negative season point differential.

The Vikings aren't good enough to lay this many points. Only once since Week 2 of last year did the Vikings beat an opponent by more than eight points. They were 2-5 ATS as favorites of four or more points.

The Buccaneers are the much better defensive team. Minnesota ranked 31st in pass defense last season.

Baker Mayfield could surprise this season. He's a good passing fit for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who are due for bounce-back seasons. Tom Brady threw a lot of passes last season, but he wasn't that effective.

The Colts haven't won a season opener in 10 years. Don't look for that streak to end this year against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars established themselves as a Super Bowl contender going 8-3 down the stretch while beating the Chargers in the postseason before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Jacksonville should be even better this season. Trevor Lawrence improves each season and he has an upgrade in weapons with Calvin Ridley, a top-15 wide receiver, and good-looking rookie running back Tank Bisby for short-yardage situations.

I'm not an Anthony Richardson-backer - at least at this embryonic stage of his NFL career. He's not ready to be an NFL starter. He made only 13 starts at Florida and was very inaccurate. His 53.8 completion percentage ranked 13th out of 14 SEC starting quarterbacks. The Jaguars are not stupid. They'll be aware of his mobility and running ability.

Making matters more difficult for Richardson is he doesn't have stud runner Jonathan Taylor to take the pressure off.

The Jaguars enter this season extremely confident. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson is ultra-aggressive. He's not the type to let up with a lead, which is what you're looking for in a favorite.

I'll take this tradeoff of probably no Travis Kelce for a drop in the betting line.

Patrick Mahomes can make any receiving group look good. The guys he has minus Kelce are not big names, but they all have special skill-sets and talents. I include Kadarius Toney (yes he's currently healthy), Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Rashee Rice and running back Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield on this list.

Keep in mind, too, who Mahomes is facing. The Lions came on strong at the end of last season, but their defense is very weak. Detroit gave up the most yards last season and ranked 28th in scoring defense. The Lions' new look secondary is vulnerable to Mahomes.

The Chiefs are 5-0 SU, 4-1 with Mahomes as their starting quarterback opening week, winning by an average of 13 points. The Chiefs have scored at least 33 points in each of their last five season-openers.

It's not a fluke the Chiefs are 9-1 in their season-openers under Andy Reid, who could be the best coach ever with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs won six of those nine games by double-digits.

Player Prop:

David Montgomery Over 51.5 yards rushing.

The Lions are looking to have a balanced offense. That's why they signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Montgomery is going to get the most carries. The Lions already have said they don't want to overuse Gibbs early in the season and that he'll be used a lot for catching passes.

Jamaal Williams led the Lions in rushing last season with 1,066. That was 11th-highest in the NFL. It comes out to 62.7 yards per game. Detroit preferred Montgomery above Williams.

The Chiefs finished 11th in run defense, giving up 107.2 yards rushing per game. That number shoots up 20 yards higher if star defensive lineman Chris Jones doesn't play and Jones is a holdout.

Look for Montgomery to get enough carries to go Over this number.

The Bengals are 3-0 against the Chiefs during the past 12 months. They beat them at Kansas City in the playoffs last season. They beat the Chiefs this season with Joe Burrow outplaying Patrick Mahomes. Now Mahomes isn't healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain.

It's time to give Cincinnati its full due. The Bengals are the best team in the AFC.

Cincinnati's underrated defense is peaking at the right time holding their last six opponents to less than 16 points a game. The high-powered Bills, with the second-most points and yards in the NFL, were held to 10 points by the Bengals.

Mahomes will try to gut it out, but the ankle injury will limit his mobility. One of the reasons Mahomes has emerged as the best quarterback in the league is his ability to make plays on the move. Now he's strictly a pocket passer because of the ankle injury.

Burrow is right up there with Mahomes - and he's healthy with better skill position weapons in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The big question with the Bengals was how would their revamped offensive line hold up minus three starters? That question was answered against the Bills last Sunday when the Bengals dominated putting up 27 points, 412 yards and 30 first downs. Mixon had his best rushing game in more than two months.

Cincinnati has been the hottest point spread team since the middle of last season covering 21 of its last 26 games. The Bengals have covered 69 percent of their last 54 road games. The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS during their past 10 home games.

Kudos to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars for staging the third biggest comeback in NFL postseason history in coming from 27 points down to nip the Chargers at home last week.

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, their season ends here.

The rested Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, winners of a five in a row. Andy Reid-coached teams are 27-4 following a bye. History is against Jacksonville. Wild-card winners who pulled upsets are 17-29 (37 percent) ATS the following week.

The Jaguars are inexperienced in big games and overmatched by the Chiefs - on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City is the top offensive team in the NFL ranking first in points and total yards. Prior to edging the Chargers and Justin Herbert, 31-30, the Jaguars had faced three straight opponents with bad quarterbacks: Jets with Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler, Texans with Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel and Titans with third-stringer Josh Dobbs. The Jaguars faced six above average quarterbacks since Week 4 going against the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Cowboys and Chargers. Jacksonville surrendered an average of 31.1 points in those games.

Now the Jaguars draw Patrick Mahomes, who torched them for 333 passing yards and four touchdowns going 26-of-35 throwing in a 27-17 Week 10 home victory. The Chiefs netted 486 yards in that game, which is the most the Jaguars have allowed all season. The Chiefs built a 20-0 lead. They won't be coasting in this situation if they build up another early advantage.

I don't see Lawrence being able to keep up with Mahomes at this early stage of his career. The Chiefs showed tremendous defensive improvement, ranking 11th in total defense and No. 2 in sacks with 55. They also batted the most passes down from the line of scrimmage. Lawrence wasn't playing that well down the stretch until the second half against the Chargers. He had averaged 197.6 passing yards with a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last three weeks of the regular season, having trouble against the defenses of the Titans and Jets.

This is the game where Lawrence could really miss his injured left tackle Cam Robinson. Chris Jones produced 15 1/2 sacks and 29 quarterback hits for the Chiefs.

Even if Lamar Jackson were to play, the Ravens aren't in the Bengals' class. Jackson is sure to be rusty, too, having been out for more than five weeks. Jackson relies on his mobility and that is going to be affected, too, by his knee injury. If Jackson doesn't start, this line will move much higher.

The Bengals are the hottest team in the AFC winners of eight in a row. They are 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Led by Joe Burrow, the Bengals have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last 11 games.

The Ravens have managed five touchdowns in their last 23 quarters. They haven't broken the 17-point barrier in their past six games.

It's not just the quarterback position where the Dolphins are hurting. They have injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Terron Armstead, most elusive running back, Raheem Mostert, and their two stud wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

There's just not enough healthy firepower for the Dolphins to stay within double-digits of the Bills.

Buffalo was a coin flip against the Chiefs away from going to the Super Bowl last season. The Bills are just as good - if not better - this season. They are No. 2 in points scored and No. 2 in fewest points allowed.

The Dolphins were life-and-death with the Joe Flacco-led Jets at home last week to even sneak into the playoffs. Miami has a negative point differential on the season. This is the Dolphins' first playoff appearance since 2016. They are just happy to be here.

Josh Allen put up 42 touchdowns for the Bills. The banged-up Dolphins can't match Buffalo's firepower.

The Bills have tremendous motivation to reach the Super Bowl for stricken teammate Damar Hamlin.

The point spread is high - but not high enough. Look for a Bills' blowout.

The 2022 Broncos were a disaster under overmatched first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. But the 2023 Broncos under Jerry Rosburg are much more professional, helped by Russell Wilson finally playing better. Denver would very much like to avoid losing 13 games for the first time in the 62-year-old history of the team.

The Broncos can accomplish that by beating the Chargers.

If the Bengals defeat the Ravens - and they currently are 9 1/2-point home favorites to do so - the Chargers would be locked into the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs rendering this matchup meaningless. The Chargers would know that result since this game goes later in the day while the Ravens-Bengals is an early game.

This is what Chargers coach Brandon Staley said about that scenario, '' Once we find out about that game, we'll make the appropriate decisions moving forward ...''

The Chargers signalled their intent not to risk injury to any key starters last week pulling out starters early in the fourth quarter during their 31-10 win against the Rams.

So there's a very good chance that journeyman backup quarterback Chase Daniel could play far more than Justin Herbert.

Even if the Chargers play their starters, I still like the Broncos based on Wilson performing better, being at home and having the superior defense. The Broncos are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times hosting the Chargers.

Nathan Peterman. Need I say more? OK, I will. The Bears have lost nine in a row, most in franchise history. Their defense has fallen apart, done in by injuries and trades to the tune of surrendering 34 points a game during their nine-game losing skid.

There's more. The Bears could clinch the No. 1 pick in the draft with a loss and a victory by the Texans against the Colts.

The Vikings are in the playoffs, but they still have incentive. They have a shot at the No. 2 slot. They also want to erase the stench of a 41-17 road loss to the Packers last week. Minnesota hasn't lost two games in a row all season.

Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell said he would go with his starters against the Bears.

That's not the case with Chicago. Justin Fields is being held out so Peterman gets the start. I regard him as one of the worst reserve quarterbacks of all-time. Somehow Peterman has lasted five years in the NFL. He's played in 12 games, completed 52.5 percent with a puny 4.2 yards per pass and a 3-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's a threat to throw a pick-six every time he drops back to pass.

Minnesota has beaten Chicago during the past three meetings winning by seven or more points each time.

I don't see the justification in the Falcons being favored here. Yes, the 8-8 Buccaneers have clinched the NFC South Division. But they want very much to finish above .500 and build positive momentum for the playoffs. Todd Bowles knows his team has to be sharp. That's why he said he will be playing his starters, including Tom Brady.

Brady is coming off his best game throwing for 432 yards and three TD's against the Panthers, who have a better defense than the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 29th defensively in total yards and 26th in pass defense.

The Falcons aren't very good on offense either. They are averaging 15.2 points in their last five games. Atlanta hasn't scored more than 20 points in seven of its last eight games. Rookie QB Desmond Ridder is set to make his fourth NFL start. He's yet to throw a TD pass. He's facing a top-eight defense in the Buccaneers, who also are tough to run against.

Tampa Bay has won the last five games in the series.

The Bills are definitely a touchdown better than the Patriots, especially playing at home. Buffalo has defeated New England the past three times by an average of 18.6 points, while outgaining them by average of 143.3 yards. 

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in total yards and fourth in scoring at 28 points a game. The Bills also rank No. 2 in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. The Patriots rank 26th in total offense and are below average in scoring even though their defense has contributed seven touchdowns. Only once in their last 10 games have the Patriots gained more than 328 yards, being held to fewer than 300 yards seven times during this span. 
New England has a good defense, but statistically it is not as good as Buffalo's.

Not only has the Patriots' scoring total been skewed by their seven defensive touchdowns - most in the league since 2017 - but their defensive numbers have been bolstered by having had the good fortune to have played six backup quarterbacks. New England achieved seven of its eight victories going against the following quarterbacks: Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson twice and Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson. 

So I find the Bills to be much superior to the Patriots. However, there is a key mental component here: How will the Bills react to their safety, Damar Hamlin, going into cardiac arrest this past Monday night against the Bengals? 

This is a much tougher question to answer. But I believe the Bills will come out hard and try to win big for Hamlin. His condition has shown much improvement allowing the Bills to concentrate. Mario Hamlin, Damar's father, told the Buffalo players to focus on the game because that's what his son would want. The Bills also have less wear and tear on them from Monday's game being called off after just nine minutes rather than the Patriots, who have been involved in close games each of the last three weeks. 

I'm not sold on the untested Jaguars coming through in big games. Tennessee has that big-game experience. Jacksonville doesn't.

The Titans have been in free-fall with six straight losses. They still can win the AFC South, though, with a victory here. The Titans have been decimated with injuries. But they are getting some key players back, including a rested Derrick Henry and two of their best defenders, lineman Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, their top pass rusher.

Tennessee found out the hard way that rookie Malik Willis is not a skilled enough passer. So the Titans are giving Joshua Dobbs a second consecutive start. He makes better decisions than Willis, provides the Titans with at least the threat of a downfield passing game and has Henry to rely upon. The Jaguars rank 28th in pass defense.

Henry has a strong history against Jacksonville with two 200-yard rushing games and three 100-yard rushing games.

The Titans also have an underrated weapon - punter Ryan Stonehouse. He's averaging 53 yards per punt. The NFL record is 51.4 yards set by Hall of Famer Sammy Baugh in 1940.

Tennessee has won nine of the past 11 meetings against Jacksonville going 8-3 ATS. The Titans have covered in four of their last five visits to Jacksonville.

Green Bay is in must-win mode and playing its best ball, winners of three in a row.

I'm not fooled by the Vikings' 12-3 record. They have only outscored their opponents by five points and have a losing point spread mark.

The Vikings give up the second-most yards in the NFL and rank last in pass defense.

I trust Aaron Rodgers to get this home victory. He'll have both his starting offensive tackles, star left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle Yosh Nijman. So Rodgers should have time to throw.

The same can't be said for Kirk Cousins. He's been sacked 11 times during the last two games.

The Packers have been the fourth-best team in the NFL during the last five weeks behind only the 49ers, Bills and Eagles going by the metric Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures efficiency.

The Eagles should polish off the Saints by more than a TD. They don't need Jalen Hurts to do that. Gardner Minshew is one of the better backup QB's in the league and the Eagles own huge edges in the trenches.

Philadelphia leads the NFL in scoring at 29.7 points a game. The Eagles have outscored their opponents by 137 points. Only twice in their last seven games, have the Saints managed more than 17 points.

Philadelphia leads the NFL in sacks. The Eagles have four players with nine or more sacks. They should overwhelm immobile, over-the-hill Andy Dalton, who is minus a couple of offensive line starters.

The Eagles are 6-1 at home. New Orleans is averaging fewer than 11 points a game during its last four road matchups.

The Saints have the fewest takeaways in the NFL with 10 while ranking 29th in turning the ball over. The Eagles have 26 takeaways, second-most in the league.

The Cardinals are bad. But so are the Falcons, losers of six of their last seven games, including four in a row.

David Blough gets the QB start for Arizona. He actually has more experience than Desmond Ridder, who has yet to throw a TD pass in two starts. Blough isn't as bad as Trace McSorley. The Cardinals nearly beat the Buccaneers last week with McSorley under center falling, 19-16, in overtime.

The Cardinals underachieved this season and were hurt by a season-ending injury to Kyler Murray. But they have more talented players than Atlanta and should provide a strong effort for retiring J.J. Watt and Kliff Kingsbury, who is trying to hold on to his coaching job.

No passing game without Ryan Tannehill. No ground game without Derrick Henry. No chance for the Titans.

I'm jumping on board the Titans fade train before this line reaches two touchdowns.

The Titans already have ruled out seven starters, including their three best offensive linemen. They could hold out a number of other banged-up players, too, since this game doesn't mean anything to them. The Titans meet the Jaguars next week with the winner of that matchup capturing the AFC South Division.

Tennessee has lost five in a row, averaging 15.2 points during this span. Dallas is 5-1 in its last six games still alive to win the NFC East Division. Bolstered by the return of Dak Prescott, the Cowboys are averaging an NFL-best 36 points a game during the last 10 weeks. The Titans rank 31st in pass defense.

The Titans have little back-door capability with backup rookie Malik Willis or Joshua Dobbs. The  Cowboys have 49 sacks and a plus-12 turnover ratio.

The collapse of the Rams from Super Bowl champions to one of the worst teams in football is complete. They are the Rams in name only. There's really nothing Sean McVay can do with such limited weaponry and a mediocre defense that is without Aaron Donald. 

Russell Wilson had his best performance of the season when he last played two weeks ago throwing for three TD's and 247 yards in a 34-28 loss to the Chiefs. Wilson rates a strong edge on Baker Mayfield and a Rams attack that ranks 30th in rushing, has backup wide receivers and has gone through 12 different offensive line combinations with scrubs manning all the spots. 

Denver has one of the best defenses in the league ranking No. 3 in total yards and scoring defense. 

The Rams managed only 156 yards last Monday against a Packers defense that isn't nearly as good as Denver's. The Rams have also become mediocre on defense giving up 24 or more points in five of their last six games. 

The Bills are going to have to deal with Justin Fields in a real flat spot for them. Buffalo just accomplished what it set out to do during the previous three games - win division games against the Patriots, Jets and Dolphins. So motivation becomes an issue for Buffalo.

The Bills are a pass-happy team. The weather won't be in their favor. Sustained winds up to 35 mph are in the forecast. There could be snow, too, with temperatures around 10 degrees. 

Thanks to Fields, the Bears lead the NFL in rushing. They are expected to get back Khalil Herbert, one of the more underrated running backs in the league. Fields has accounted for 20 touchdowns in his last nine games. His moves outside of the pocket can't be defended. 

The Bears' defense has been playing hard and has gotten healthier in the secondary. 

Since Week 2, the Bears have lost by more than nine points only twice. 

Turnovers could be a key here. The Bears have turned the ball over nine fewer times than Buffalo. 

Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett and the Cleveland weather will be too much for the warm-weathered Saints.

It's going to be bitter cold with the wind chill factor going below zero. That's not suitable for the Saints, who play on carpet inside their temperature-controlled dome.

The Browns should control the trenches. The highly reliable Chubb should be featured. The Saints have permitted at least 148 yards rushing in four of their last six games. They just allowed the Falcons to produce 231 yards on the ground against them.

Deshaun Watson should have less rust making his fourth start of the season while having a better grasp of Cleveland's offense.

The Saints have a key offensive line injury with guard Cesar Ruiz out. They also will be minus their top wideout, Chris Olave.

I see the Browns controlling both lines of scrimmage and thus the game.

Don't be fooled by the Vikings' 11-3 record. They have outscored their opponents by just two points and have a losing point spread mark.

The Vikings are fat and happy having already won their NFC North Division after coming from 33 points down to beat the Colts in overtime last week.

Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell has already said his priority is having a healthy team ready for the playoffs.

The Giants have more urgency. They are off a key, confidence-regaining road win against the Commanders to put them in the playoff hunt.

Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley can produce enough numbers against a Vikings' defense that ranks last in total yards and 28th in scoring defense to keep the Giants firmly in this game if not pull the outright upset.

No Tyler Lockett, but the Seahawks still have enough firepower to compete against the high-powered Chiefs with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, DK. Metcalf, Noah Fant and Marquise Goodwin. The Seahawks were averaging 28.3 points in their last three games before having to face the 49ers' top-ranked defense.

The Seahawks are in must-win, desperation mode after going 1-4 in their last five games. None of Seattle's last six losses, though, have been by more than eight points.

The Chiefs win, but don't cover spreads. Since Week 2, they are 10-3, but just 2-10-1 ATS. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times laying more than seven points.

Pete Carroll has done one of his best coaching jobs. The Seahawks are on a mini-bye having last played Thursday. I expect Carroll to have a good game plan. The extra rest certainly can't hurt either.

Making a trip to Lambeau Field in December is not fun for the warm-weathered Rams. This is doubly so because the Rams are out of contention at 4-9.

The Packers aren't much better at 5-8, but they still have playoff hope - if they win this game. The elements and injury situation sets up for Green Bay.

The Rams' offense is decimated and their best defender, superstar tackle Aaron Donald, is out for a third straight week because of a high ankle sprain.

There is a 70 percent chance of snow although wind shouldn't factor being in the 5-10 mph range. This is Packers weather and they have the ground game to take advantage with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Aaron Rodgers still is playing at a high level. The Packers also have found their first decent kick returner in many years, Keisean Nixon.

The Rams won the Super Bowl last season yet the Packers beat them at Lambeau Field, 36-28, last year with Rodgers accounting for three scores.

Now the Rams' offense is down to Baker Mayfield, who is on his third team this season, Cam Akers and a host of backup wideouts behind an offensive line full of scrubs.

Everything is in place for the Packers to beat the Rams by more than a touchdown.

The Texans don't have too many good players and they will be missing some of those players. Among those out for Houston are cornerback Derek Stingley, wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and its best skill position player, running back Dameon Pierce. This leaves Davis Mills, a garbage quarterback, with nothing but garbage as weapons.

The Chiefs can name their score. I predict they will name it in blowout fashion. Kansas City jumped in front of Denver, 27-0, last week before holding on for a 34-28 win. The Texans nearly upset the Cowboys last Sunday before losing in the final minute, 27-23. That might have been the Texans' Super Bowl.

So I don't see the Chiefs taking the Texans lightly here. That's all that matters because the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, if not all of football, while the Texans are the worst.

The Bills are in a perfect spot to exact their revenge for an oddball, 21-19, road loss to the Dolphins back in Week 3. Buffalo lost to Miami despite outgaining the Dolphins by 285 yards. That game was played in brutally humid South Florida conditions back in September.

This matchup is just the opposite with a winter storm watch issued. Cold, possibly heavy snow and gusting winds are in the forecast. The warm-weather Dolphins with their warm-weather QB, Tua Tagovailoa, are not equipped for this type of weather element. The Dolphins rely on precision passing timing with Tagovailoa getting the ball out fast to speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa has never even played in temperatures below 37 degrees.

The Dolphins have been exposed as big-game frauds the past two weeks by the 49ers and Chargers. They managed just a combined 521 total yards of offense in those games. The Chargers were minus several of their best defenders, including safety Derwin James and pass rusher Joey Bosa.

MIami is giving 31.4 points on the road this season while going 1-5 ATS in their last six away matchups.

Josh Allen is much more comfortable in cold weather games. I expect the Bills to score against a mediocre Miami defense and the Dolphins' offense unable to counterattack.

The Dolphins are 8-1 SU, 6-3 when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game. The one loss came this past Sunday at San Francisco when Miami ran into the top defense in the league.

The Chargers give up the third-most points in the NFL. They are likely to face the Dolphins' record-setting wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle without safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan. James is in the discussion for best safety in the league. Miami had produced 30 or more points in four straight games prior to the 49ers.

The Chargers aren't going to be able to slow down Miami. Justin Herbert has too many injuries around him to keep up with Miami's high-powered offense. LA is averaging 21.4 points in its last seven games.

LA has not defeated an above .500 team all season. The step up is too high for the Chargers.

Tom Brady versus Brock Purdy. Yeah, I'll take 3 1/2 with that

The 49ers have become the best defense in the NFL. But they may not have their most disruptive force with Nick Bosa questionable with a hamstring injury.

The Buccaneers aren't too shabby defensively either. They rank fifth in scoring defense giving up 18.3 points a game and have the fourth-most sacks.

Tampa Bay is 14-5-2 ATS during its last 21 December games.

The 49ers have won five in a row since losing to the Chiefs. Miami was their only win against a winning club, though, during this span.

The Panthers are trying their hardest to earn trust. They are 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Interim coach Steve Wilks has won the locker room in his bid to become permanent head coach. Sam Darnold is the right quarterback choice.

Seattle is in a division sandwich. The Seahawks got past the surprisingly stubborn Rams, 27-23, on a late TD pass from Geno Smith last Sunday and have their biggest game of the season on deck hosting the 49ers next week.

The Seahawks are facing an underrated Carolina defense being severely banged-up at running back. The Panthers have held their last foes to an average of 12.6 points. The Panthers should be rested and ready coming off their bye week.

The Bengals experienced a frightful Halloween losing, 32-13, on the road to the Browns.

Cincinnati is much the superior team. I see the Bengals getting their revenge. Take away that game and the Bengals would be 9-1 SU, 10-ATS. They are playing well. Cleveland isn't.

While Joe Burrow has a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last seven games, Deshaun Watson is off a horrendous season debut generating no touchdowns against the Texans. Watson's passer rating was 54.3, a career-worst.

Josh Jacobs, Davonte Adams and Maxx Crosby have lifted the Raiders back into playoff contention leading Las Vegas to three straight victories. The Raiders got hot last season to sneak into the playoffs and they're showing signs of repeating that this season.

The Rams, on the other hand, are as dead as Jimmy Hoffa.

Sean McVay thinks so little of backup quarterbacks Bryce Perkins and John Wolford, who has a neck injury, that the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield on waivers. The Browns gave up on Mayfield and now the Panthers had their fill of Mayfield.

Whoever is behind center for the Rams has to deal with backups - some fourth and fifth-stringers - at just about every offensive position. The Rams have had to use a different offensive line in every game because of multiple injuries. LA has no ground game and is minus its two best wideouts, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson.

The Raiders are playing much better defense, limiting opposing running backs to 3.07 yards during the last three weeks, which is the third-lowest mark during this span. Las Vegas also has 11 sacks during its last three games.

Jacobs is the hottest runner in the NFL. He's averaging 179 yards rushing in his last four games. The Rams' defense is far less fierce up front minus Aaron Donald, who is out, along with run-stuffing nose guard A'Shawn Robinson. So Jacobs is in line for another huge performance.

Adams is averaging 137.6 receiving yards in his last three games. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is the Rams' best player in their secondary and he's been playing poorly.

The Rams put forth a great effort this past Sunday against the Seahawks, a team the Raiders beat. However, the Rams came up short, 27-23, against Seattle. I doubt the Rams produce another ''A'' game. The Raiders are likely to have better, crowd support than the home Rams.

Home field: Check mark to Buccaneers. It's an off-surface, too, for the visiting Saints. They are used to turf not grass. 

Quarterback: Check mark to Tom Brady over Andy Dalton. 

Defense: Check mark to the Buccaneers' fifth-ranked defense compared to the Saints' 21st ranked defense. 

These are three strong handicapping factors as to why I believe the Buccaneers will beat the Saints by more than a field goal. 

The Saints are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four true road games. They haven't won on a grass field all season, including last week when they were shut out by the 49ers at Levi's Stadium. 

Not only is Brady much superior to turnover-prone Dalton, but he has better receiving weapons with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin is coming off his best game of the year since suffering a knee injury last December.

The Saints could be down two members of their secondary with cornerback Marshon Lattimore missing the last seven games due to an abdominal injury and safety P.J. Williams suffering a knee injury last week. 

Brady entered this Week 13 leading the NFC in passing yards. He's been picked off just once since opening week. Dalton has been intercepted six times in his last four games.

Tampa Bay gives up the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL. The Bucs rank fifth in pass defense and ninth in total defense. The Saints rank 21st in scoring defense. They have the fewest takeaways in the league with just six. 

The Rams have no hope this season and Sean McVay knows it. He admits he doesn't have the players to compete anymore. The oddsmaker has not fully grasped this yet.

Minus Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and going with their 11th different offensive line combination, the 3-8 Rams are dead. They have lost five in a row, averaging 14.8 points during this span.

Seattle isn't about to feel sorry for the Rams. The Seahawks have lost two in a row with the latter coming in overtime to the Raiders. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. Geno Smith is playing his finest ball, a strong candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. He's helped the Seahawks average 26.5 points, fourth-best in the league. Seattle has averaged even more during their last four road games producing an average of 37 points.

Losing Donald really hurts the Rams' defense and their offense is broken, forced to use scrubs at quarterbacks and fourth and fifth-string type offensive linemen.

The Commanders are 6-1 in their last seven games. They've gotten a big boost since making a QB switch from toxic Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke. 

But I see the Commanders running out of gas in this divisional matchup. The Giants are getting healthier and are on a mini-bye having last played on Thanksgiving. The Commanders haven't had their bye week yet. 

I like Brian Daboll more than Ron Rivera. I favor Daniel Jones above Heinicke and I certainly like Saquon Barkley far more than any Washington skill position player. Barkley's matchup is enhanced by the Commanders missing highly underrated linebacker Cole Holcomb. Barkley gets another boost with the expected return of good-looking rookie offensive right tackle Evan Neal from a knee injury.

Jones has a history of playing well against Washington. He has nine TD passes against them, which is four more than he has thrown against any other opponent. 

Heinicke has provided an emotional spark to the Commanders. Talent-wise, though, he's not very good. He's short and doesn't have a strong arm. Heinicke has a 7-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his six starts. 

The Giants have covered five of the last seven times in this series. 

Pittsburgh has yet to win two in a row this season. I don't see it happening here. It's a tough spot for the Steelers traveling on a short week following an upset road victory against the Colts this past Monday. Pittsburgh has failed to cover seven of its last 10 away contests.

Cordarrelle Patterson gives the Falcons the most dynamic skill position player on the field. He's also a star kick returner. I trust veteran Marcus Mariota against the Steelers' 30th-ranked pass defense more than Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett.

Pickett has a passer rating of 73.5 and a 3-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers' top two running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, are both banged-up. Harris will be a go, but Warren's status is up in the air.

Much has been made about the Packers' steep descent this season. But look at the Bears. They are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with five consecutive losses. Injuries and trades have made their defense a laughing stock.

Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears, beating them 24 of 29 times. Rodgers has completed 76 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 16-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games versus Chicago.

Rodgers is banged-up. But the Packers finally have their bye next week. So I expect Rodgers to be going all out. He'll be looking at a decimated Chicago secondary that is missing three starters, including both safeties. Chicago has the fewest sacks in the NFC with 16.

Matt LaFleur does one thing consistently right - and that's beat the Bears. He's the only Green Bay coach to win his first seven regular-season games against Chicago.

Justin Fields is expected to start, but he'll be missing his No. 1 wide receiver with Darrell Mooney done for the season with an ankle injury. Fields is a tremendous runner, but the Bears likely will be cautious with him. Fields has an AC-joint shoulder sprain and the Bears have their bye next week.

The Packers also may have finally found a special teams weapon as Keisean Nixon had two 50-plus yard returns against the Eagles last week.

Since firing Frank Reich, the Colts are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS upsetting the Raiders on the road and losing to the Eagles by one point at home. The controversial hiring of Jeff Saturday has looked good so far. The players have responded to him.

The most disappointing part of the Colts' season has been their offensive line. If there' one thing Saturday, the long-time former Pro Bowl center for the Colts, knows something about it's an offensive line. He can get it fixed because there is talent there. There is also skill position talent. Jonathan Taylor is back healthy. He's rushed for 231 yards in his last two games.

Matt Ryan is a level higher than rookie Kenny Pickett right now. Pickett has thrown three TD passes and been picked off eight times. He's been sacked 14 times in his last three games.

The Steelers are 3-7 and have lost four straight road games. They entered this week ranked 26th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points a game. The Colts have the better record and their defense entered the week giving up the 11th fewest points per game at 20. Indianapolis ranked fifth in pass defense. The Colts give up 5.0 yards per play and 307.6 yards per game compared to the Steelers allowing 5.8 yards per play and 375.5 yards a game.

Pittsburgh went into this week ranked 29th in scoring offense, averaging just 16.3 points a game. The Steelers won't have their second-best running back, Jaylen Warren. He's out with a hamstring injury.

Both teams should be highly motivated playing on national TV. But the Steelers' 37-30 home loss to the Bengals last week realistically ended any playoff hope. They are looking at their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. They should be in rebuild mode now.

The Colts have some momentum with the coaching switch to Saturday. They are just two games back in the loss column in the AFC South Division.

The bar is not set high here asking the Colts to win by a field goal.

It's last stand time now for the Packers. So you know Green Bay is going to give everything here. The Eagles can take a defeat. The Packers can not. 
Philadelphia hasn't played well the last two weeks losing at home to the Commanders and nipping the Colts by one point. The Eagles are 9-1. They are solid more than dominant, however. The only above average teams the Eagles have met were the Cowboys and Vikings. 

It's easy to forget, but just two weeks ago the Packers came back from two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys. A loss last Thursday to the Titans erased much of that big win. The Titans happen to be 7-1 in their last eight games with the lone defeat during this span occurring to the Chiefs in overtime. 

Aaron Rodgers isn't having that bad of a season. He's in the top-six in touchdown passes, passing yards and completions. Rookie Christian Watson has come on to score five touchdowns in the last two games giving Rodgers a much needed deep threat. 

The Eagles' offense isn't as potent minus injured tight end Dallas Goedert. The Packers' defense is way overdue to step up. This is their chance. 

It's a nice bonus for the Jets if Justin Fields can't make the start for the Bears. That would force the Bears to start Trevor Siemian, a career journeyman and noted stiff.

But even if the dynamic Fields plays, I like the Jets to beat the Bears by more than a touchdown now that they've made the quarterback switch from ineffective, morale-killer Zach Wilson to Mike White.

The Jets have close to a Super Bowl-caliber defense. But Wilson has held New York's offense hostage with his inaccuracies, lack of big plays and interceptions. The Jets have good receiving weapons, especially with Corey Davis expected back to join Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims.

White has proven himself. Just ask the Bengals. White threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns in his first start last season leading the Jets to a 34-31 win against the AFC champion Bengals.

The bar is much lower against a Bears defense that has surrendered an average of 35.5 points in their last four games.

As well as Fields has played recently, it hasn't translated to victories because of the Bears' porous defense. Chicago is 1-6 in its last seven games, losers of four in a row.

The Dolphins went into their bye last week off an impressive 39-17 victory against the Browns. But in their previous six games, the Dolphins lost to the Bengals, Jets and Vikings and beat the Steelers by 6, Lions by 4 and Bears by 3. So I find this spread to be inflated.

Yes, the Dolphins are good this season. But they have flaws. They are not a great team that can cover two touchdowns. Great teams don't squeeze past the Steelers, Lions and Bears by a combined winning margin of 4.3 points.

Miami might not have Raheem Mostert and their kicking game could be in trouble. Jason Sanders ranks fourth-from-the-bottom in field goal percentage accuracy and punter Thomas Morstead has been dealing with illness.

The Texans should get a boost with a quarterback switch from David Mills to Kyle Allen. Mills has been terrible on the road. Allen is a career backup, but he might provide a spark here. He has Dameon Pierce to rely upon. Pierce leads all rookie running backs with 780 yards rushing and 915 scrimmage yards.

The Bucs enter this matchup at their most healthy and fresh off a bye. The Browns were hoping to hang on until Deshaun Watson could take over. But that didn't happen. Cleveland is 3-7 with six losses in its last seven games.

Morale is bad with the Browns. So is their defense, which ranks tied for 31st giving up 26.9 points a game. Tom Brady has the passing attack to take advantage along with an upgraded ground attack thanks to more usage from outside threat Rachaad White, who is now properly factored into Tampa Bay's offense.

Tampa Bay has a top-six defense and its offense that has the second-fewest turnovers. Cleveland has only eight takeaways, which ranks 29th. The Buccaneers held Seattle's star rookie running back Kenneth Walker to 17 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago in their last game. Walker had averaged 102 yards rushing during his past five games.

This doesn't bode well for Nick Chubb, who the Browns heavily rely upon. The Buccaneers are going to be tough to run against with the Browns losing emerging center Ethan Pocic to a knee injury.