Tough spot, tough starting pitching to go against. That's the situation the Rangers face today.

This is Texas' first game at home in 12 days since returning from a 10-game road trip. The Rangers are up against Seattle starter Logan Gilbert.

Gilbert is an emerging star with a 1-0 record and 2.33 ERA. He gets overlooked in Seattle's pitching staff because of Luis Castillo and George Kirby, but he's one of the best No. 3 starters in the league. Gilbert has a 2.88 career ERA vs the Rangers in 10 starts.

Texas starter Dane Dunning isn't in Gilbert's class with a 2-1 record and 3.91 ERA. Dunning has a 4.28 lifetime ERA against Seattle in eight starts.

The Angels are a below average offensive team and in a scoring slump with just seven runs in their last four games. Orioles starter Albert Suarez is on the comeback trail. He has yet to be scored upon in 5 2/3 innings this season.

Angels starter lefty Reid Detmers is making an early case for Cy Young Award honors with a 1.19 ERA in 22 2/3 innings. The Orioles are nothing special against southpaw pitching.

The Braves are the best offensive team in baseball. They rank first in runs, batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage. Atlanta is swinging hot bats right now averaging 6.5 runs in its last six games. 

I don't see Michael Lorenzen and a disappointing Rangers bullpen stopping Atlanta's offense. 

Lorenzen will be making his second appearance of the season. He went five innings - against the Tigers. Detroit has a bottom-seven offense. The Braves saw Lorenzen three times last year. They got to him for 17 hits, seven walks, five homers and 14 runs in just 11 1/3 innings. Texas' bullpen has a 5.05 ERA, which is the eighth-worst. 

The Rangers should do their share of damage against Darius Vines, who has only 25 innings of big league experience. Texas ranks eighth in batting average and 11th in runs.

There will be a slight wind blowing out to left. Brock Ballou is slated to be the home plate umpire. This is his third year in the majors. The Over is 15-11 (58 percent) in games he has been behind the plate. 

Given their injuries, the Red Sox have done well to open the season 10-9. Boston has received outstanding starting pitching and power from Tyler O'Neil, who is second in the majors in homers with seven.

But the Red Sox are in trouble in this game. O'Neil is likely to miss his third straight game because of a concussion. Boston's bullpen is below average and this is going to be a bullpen game for them.

Reliever Brennan Bernardino is slated to start for the Red Sox. He's only expected to pitch one or two innings followed by Cooper Criswell. The Red Sox have a 4.11 bullpen ERA.

By contrast, the Guardians rank No. 2 in the majors in bullpen ERA at 2.15. This is a huge plus for Cleveland's aged starter Carlos Carrasco, who has allowed two earned runs during his past 7 2/3 innings and has a respectable 3.55 ERA.

Given these circumstances, I'll go with the Guardians especially in an underdog role.

The Nationals have one quality start this season. Don't expect them to have two after this game against the Dodgers. Patrick Corbin is starting for Washington. He hasn't been good since 2019.

Corbin is looking terrible again this season with an 0-2 mark and 8.44 ERA in three starts. Corbin just gave up seven runs on 11 hits against the Giants in 5 2/3 innings this past Wednesday. The Dodgers lead the majors in homers and have a far more dangerous lineup than the Giants.

The Nationals should contribute to this total going Over since it's a bullpen game for the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the 10th-highest bullpen ERA in the majors. Washington ranks No. 2 in the majors in stolen bases.

Down star closer Devin Williams and leading the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position entering yesterday, the Brewers are off to a National League-best 10-4 start. 

I'm not buying the Brewers, though, as a top team. The Padres have the superior offensive players and a strong edge in pitching with a matchup of Joe Musgrove vs Joe Ross. Musgrove's ERA the past three years is 3.05, 2.93 and 3.18. Ross is a reclamation project, who has missed much of the past two seasons because of elbow surgery. 

The Brewers' timely hitting could be rounding its course. Milwaukee stranded 15 runners in scoring position during its 6-4 loss to the Orioles on Sunday. The Brewers remain without injured Christian Yelich. 

The Padres are off a, 6-3, road win against the Dodgers last night. However, Milwaukee also has to travel. The Brewers haven't been home in eight days, having just concluded a seven-game road trip against the Orioles and Reds.

Both teams will be back in action less than 24 hours after playing on Sunday. That's because this is the traditional Patriot's Day holiday game in Boston with a weird Monday 11:10 a.m. East Coast time start.

That unusual time has to have a negative effect on batters. Neither team has a dynamic offense either.

Xzavion Curry is slated to make his season debut for the Guardians. He had been sidelined by a viral infection. The Red Sox have never faced him. Curry is backed by a deep Guardians' bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors at 1.88.

Kutter Crawford gets the start for Boston. He has a 0.57 ERA in 15 2/3 innings this season, living up to preseason hype that he was going to be one of the more improved pitchers in baseball.

The Dodgers and Padres rank first and second, respectively, in most home runs this season. The Padres have a top-10 offense and the Dodgers a top-five attack.

Starting pitchers Yu Darvish and James Paxton are off to good starts. But I favor the offenses here. Both San Diego and Los Angeles have bottom-12 bullpen ERA's.

The Dodgers opened the season against Darvish, who pitched 3 2/3 innings against them in Seoul, South Korea. Darvish has a 3.86 ERA on the season and is past his prime.

Darvish is going to have to deal with a sizzling Mookie Betts, who is batting .500 with two homers and 12 RBIs in 20 at bats against San Diego this season.

The 35-year-old Paxton has opened the season with a 2-0 record and 1.64 ERA. His starts, though, have come against the Giants and Twins. Now he steps up against the Padres. Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar all have good histories against Paxton.

Tanner Bibee is going to look very good pitching on Wednesday. How's that? What major league pitcher wouldn't look good going against hitters such as Robbie Grossman, Nicky Lopez, Lenny Sosa, Kevin Pillar, Paul DeJong and Martin Maldonado.

That's what the White Sox lineup is reduced to down their three best offensive players - Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada. All three are injured.

The White Sox are averaging two runs a game and that's after scoring seven runs to beat the Guardians, 7-5, on Tuesday.

Bibee, a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, is backed by a strong Cleveland bullpen.

The White Sox have an underrated bullpen and an underrated starter pitcher going Wednesday, Erick Fedde. He's much improved since his days with the Nationals. He dominated while pitching in South Korea last season. Fedde has a 2.79 ERA in two starts this season.

The Guardians have a bottom-three offense when it comes to hitting home runs.

The White Sox didn't have much firepower entering the season and now they are without their two best offensive players with Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez both on the injured list.

So it's not a major surprise the White Sox have the worst offense in the majors scoring only 13 runs in eight games. 

A rare bright spot for the White Sox is Garrett Crochet, who has been outstanding in his two starts this season with a 1.38 ERA going against the Braves and Tigers. Crochet has 16 strikeouts in 13 innings. 

Kansas City starter Alec Marsh was strong against the Orioles in his first start this season winning, 4-1. He has a career 2.08 ERA vs the White Sox in 4 1/3 innings.

I'm looking for the Angels to bounce back and beat Boston after losing to the Red Sox last night. Trevor Story was injured in that game. That could bother the Red Sox in this matchup. It certainly hurts their middle infield situation.

I'm high on Angels starter Reid Detmers. He was sharp in his first outing this season holding the Orioles, a top-eight offense, to one run on two hits with seven strikeouts in five innings. The Angels won that game, 4-1.

Boston starter Garrett Whitlock had a 5.15 ERA last season. He's not a big innings guy and the Red Sox bullpen already is beginning to pile up innings.

We knew the A's were going to be terrible this season and they certainly have lived up to expectations. The 1-4 A's have been outscored, 38-11. They have committed more errors with 13 than they have scored runs.

If the price isn't too high, the A's are an auto-fade. I can live with this price in a pitching matchup of Brayan Bello vs washed-up 33-year-old Alex Wood.

The Red Sox have underrated starting pitching and Bello is one reason for that. He looked good in his first start opening day, holding the Mariners to two runs on five hits in five innings in a 6-4 victory.

Wood has a 16.20 ERA after giving up six runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings in his first start this season, an 8-0 loss to the Guardians .He has never beaten the Red Sox.

A total that opens below 9 in a Dodgers game is going to pique my interest. This is one of those games.

Los Angeles has a dominant offense and it hasn't disappointed. The Dodgers are averaging 6.6 runs in their six games. They have scored five or more runs in every game.

Here the home Dodgers draw Keaton Winn, who has pitched fewer than 43 innings in the major leagues. The Dodgers are familiar with Winn, though. They faced him late last season and got to him for six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Winn had a 4.68 ERA last year.

The Giants are giving up seven runs per game. Their middle relief pitching and fielding don't look up to par.

San Francisco, though, averaged 6.2 runs during its four games against the Padres. The Giants draw James Paxton, who is in LA's rotation because of injuries to Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Emmet Sheehan. The 35-year-old Paxton had a 4.50 ERA last season.

I'll back Cleveland at around a pick price against Seattle in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie vs Emerson Hancock.

I have McKenzie ranked two tiers higher than Hancock.

McKenzie had a 2.96 ERA two seasons ago showing tremendous promise. However, he made only four starts because of injuries last season. McKenzie enters this year healthy. He had a much better spring training than Hancock with a 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 16 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings compared to Hancock's 10.24 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings. Hancock had a 4.50 ERA last year.

The Guardians aren't going to set any power records, but the Mariners averaged only 2.5 runs while batting .178 in four games against the Red Sox to open the season. Seattle hitters struck out 45 times in the four-game series.

The Dodgers scored the second most runs in baseball last year and they've taken right where they left off. LA is averaging 6.8 runs in its five games. The Dodgers have scored at least five runs in each game.

LA should continue its high-scoring ways facing Steven Matz, who was 4-7 with a 3.86 ERA in 25 appearances last season. 

The Cardinals draw Gavin Stone, who struggled with a 9.00 ERA in eight appearances, including four starts, for the Dodgers last year. Supposedly he should be improved having added a couple of pitches. But Stone might not have even made the starting rotation if Emmet Sheehan didn't suffer shoulder soreness. 

Weather could be a rare factor for this Dodgers home game as rain is expected. Rain delays could bring in middle relievers earlier than expected.

The Royals should be much improved this season, but the Twins are superior and the price is short enough to get involved backing Minnesota. 

Kansas City has some promising hitters. The Twins have proven hitters and a much more reliable bullpen even with Jhoan Duran out.

Oh, yes, the Twins hold a huge starting pitcher edge with Joe Ryan facing Seth Lugo.

Ryan is in my second tier of top American League pitchers, way above Lugo. Ryan has dominated the Royals in his career, too, with a 5-0 record and 1.50 ERA. 

The Twins won against Cole Ragans, a much better pitcher than Lugo, in the series opener. They can certainly win against Lugo.

I'm not counting the Diamondbacks out yet. Not with Zac Gallen pitching at home and Adolis Garcia out.

Nathan Eovaldi versus Gallen was the Game 1 pitching matchup. Neither pitcher made it to the sixth inning. The Diamondbacks led 5-3 until the Rangers tied in the ninth and won in extra innings.

Gallen didn't pitch that well, but Eovaldi was worse. That game was in Texas, too.

Now Gallen is back pitching at home where he was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA during the regular season.

Garcia being out with an oblique injury can't be underestimated either. He's the Rangers' top power hitter.

The Diamondbacks have proven resilient all season. I'm not ready to give up on them - at least not at this value price.

The Rangers are lucky to have the World Series even at 1-1 after pulling out an extra inning win. The Diamondbacks have outscored the Rangers, 14-7, and now are coming home for Game 3. Texas had a losing road record during the regular season.

Yet this Game 3 is being priced as a toss-up. It's time to start respecting the Diamondbacks. The Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies all discovered that the hard way. It's also time to realize that 39-year-old Max Scherzer is past his prime and not fully healthy.

Scherzer had a 9.45 ERA in two postseason starts against the Astros this month. He is 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA in 29 lifetime playoff appearances. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was quoted as saying he's just looking for innings from Scherzer, rather than his one-time dominance, since the Rangers have a vulnerable bullpen.

I prefer Diamondbacks' rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who showed he could do the job under pressure when he shut out the Phillies on two hits with nine strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 of the NLCS.

Pfaadt has pitched 16 2/3 innings in the playoffs. He has a 2.70 ERA with a 22-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Rangers have a top-three offense. They have not gone Under the total during their last six games. Zac Gallen was bad on the road and has proven disappointing lately in the postseason. 

So I like this total to go Over. 

Gallen has allowed nine earned runs on five homers in his last two innings spanning 11 innings. The Rangers hit the third-most homers in the majors. Gallen also hasn't been good on the road this season with a 7-7 record and 4.49 ERA in 21 away starts. 

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well in the postseason with a 4-0 record and 2.42 ERA. But he's been known throughout his career to throw an occasional clunker. This is his first World Series start. The Rangers' bullpen is untrustworthy. 

The Diamondbacks had a lot of timely hits in taking out the Phillies in the NCLS. They have produced at least four runs in eight of their 12 postseason games.

After sweeping the Rangers three games in Texas, the Astros return to Houston for this Game 6. That's bad news for the Astros.

The Astros were 39-42 at home during the regular season and are 1-3 at Minute Maid Park in the postseason.

I don't see ineffective Framber Valdez turning that around. Valdez had a 4.66 ERA after the All-Star break. He's been terrible in the playoffs giving up nine earned runs in two starts. He has a 7.30 ERA in his last seven home starts.

On the flip side is Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi. He's been excellent in the postseason with a 3-0 record and 2.29 ERA. This isn't a fluke. He's 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 playoff appearances, including nine starts.

Taking the Rangers at a plus price is a no-brainer.

Arizona's relief pitchers did a great job in helping preserve the Diamondbacks' 2-1 victory against the Phillies on Thursday. I don't think they can do it again, though.

This is going to be a bullpen game for the Diamondbacks. The Phillies had smacked 19 homers in their previous eight playoff games this season before last night. I see them getting back on track. Philadelphia is averaging 5.6 runs during its last 10 games.

Lefty Cristopher Sanchez gets the start for the Phillies. He had a solid 3.44 ERA in 19 appearances this season, including 18 starts. The Diamondbacks have below average numbers against southpaws in several major categories, including slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

The momentum has shifted in this series with the Astros dealing the Rangers their first loss of the playoffs. I'm going to ride the Astros here as the underdog. 

Houston is 17-3 in its last 20 road games. The Astros especially like playing in Arlington. The Astros are 7-1 this year there against Texas, averaging 8.9 runs in those games.

This is an action play for me, but I do favor Houston, too, in a pitching matchup of Jose Urquidy versus lefty Andrew Heaney. Urquidy has a 1.74 ERA in his last three appearances. He has a 5-0 career mark versus the Rangers with a 2.82 ERA in seven starts. 

The Astros have very good numbers against lefthanded pitching, including No. 2 in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS and fifth in batting average.

The Astros are down 2-0 in this American League Championship Series, but I'm not ready to count them out. The scene shifting from Houston to Texas is a good thing for the Astros.

The last time the Astros were in Arlington was early last month and they went 3-0 against Texas scoring 13, 14 and 12 runs smacking 16 homers.

The Astros have their playoff stud, Christian Javier, on the mound. He has yet to give up a run in three postseason starts during his career spanning 16 1/3 innings.

Opposing Javier is Max Scherzer. Now Scherzer is a future Hall of Famer, but this isn't an ideal spot for him. He hasn't pitched since Sept. 12 after sustaining a muscle strain in his pitching shoulder. The Rangers are hoping to get around 70 pitches from Scherzer.

The Astros torched Scherzer for seven runs in three innings when they buried Texas, 12-3, on Sept. 6.

The magic is broken. Momentum gone. After sweeping the Brewers and Dodgers in the playoffs, the Diamondbacks lost, 5-3, to the Phillies in Monday's NLCS opener.

No letup now from the Phillies. They are strong favorites for this Game 2 home game and I see them coming through in a pitching matchup of Merrill Kelly versus Aaron Nola.

Kelly had a 2.59 home ERA, but his road ERA during the regular season was 4.07. He's also been giving up too many walks - 18 in his last six starts. The Phillies, with their top-10 offense, can take advantage. They are averaging 5.6 runs in their last eight games.

Nola was a solid 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA when pitching at Citizens Bank Park.

The marketplace is enamored with the pitching matchup of Zac Gallen versus Zach Wheeler in this opening game of the National League Championship Series. The total is being bet down.

I don't see it that way. I see at least eight runs being scored.

The Diamondbacks are averaging six runs per game during their five postseason games. They've faced good pitching, too, drawing Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Clayton Kershaw during this span. Arizona has scored four or more runs in each playoff game.

Arizona has displayed a good combination of power and speed. The Diamondbacks finished second in stolen bases during the season.
The Phillies are averaging 5.7 runs in their last seven games. It's a good sign for them that Trea Turner has gotten hot. The Phillies are a top-eight offensive team.

As for the starting pitchers, Gallen has pitched much worse on the road this season with a 4.42 ERA compared to a 2.47 home ERA. Wheeler has a 4.13 home ERA compared to a 3.16 road ERA.

Citizens Bank Park is a noted hitter's park and there are no weather issues.

This total may seem a little low because Christian Javier is one of the starters. But it's not. Javier has a 2.30 ERA in his last three starts and is a proven big-game pitcher. He has a 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 32 2/3 postseason innings. Javier is backed by an Astros bullpen that had the sixth-lowest ERA during the regular season.

The Twins have reliable Sonny Gray on the hill. He had a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts spanning 184 innings in the regular season. He pitched five scoreless innings against the Blue Jays in the wild-card series. Gray has a 2.39 ERA in five career playoff starts and a 3.03 ERA in 12 career starts versus Houston.

The kicker is that Bill Miller is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's known for a generous strike zone. The Under cashed 57 percent of the time in his 28 games behind the plate this year.

Perhaps it was the pressure of playing in their first home playoff game in nine years before a packed crowd. But the Orioles let Game 1 of their playoff series against the Rangers slip by in a 3-2 loss on Saturday. 

The Orioles have proven resilient all season. I see them bouncing back behind rookie pitcher Grayson Rodriguez against lefty Jordan Montgomery. 

Rodriguez, a high ceiling prospect, found his groove down the home stretch. He didn't allow more than two earned runs during any of his last six starts. Rodriguez was 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his last three starts. 

Texas finished the regular season with a losing road record. Baltimore was 49-32 at home.

The Orioles also were 36-17 versus lefty starters. No other team had more than 30 victories against southpaw starters. 

Montgomery has been pitching well, too. But he has a 3.72 day time ERA and the Orioles were in the top-10 in many offensive categories against lefties including, batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. 

The Orioles were far-and-away the most profitable team for bettors this season. I have no qualms backing them at this low of a home lay price.

The Diamondbacks are on house money after upsetting the Brewers, 6-3, in Game 1 of their playoff series against the Brewers on Tuesday. Arizona scored six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings off Milwaukee's two best pitchers, Corbin Burnes and closer Devin Williams.

Now the pitching matchup is Zac Gallen versus Freddy Peralta.

Gallen is the superior pitcher yet Arizona is an underdog. I'll take the plus price with the loose Diamondbacks and with Gallen, who in two starts against the Brewers this season held Milwaukee to one earned run on six hits and two walks with 15 strikeouts in 14 innings.

The Twins face two obstacles here: Kevin Gausman and their own wretched playoff history.

Minnesota has lost 18 consecutive postseason games!

The Blue Jays had a better regular season record than the Twins. Gausman is a better pitcher than Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez. Yet the Twins opened as the favorite.

Gausman is 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA. He led the AL in strikeouts with 237 in 185 innings. Lopez is 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA.

Wrong team favored, so I'll be on the Blue Jays.

The Cardinals have been one of the major disappointments of the season. That's the way they're finishing, too.

St. Louis is 2-7 in its last nine games. The Cardinals are averaging a puny 2.1 runs per game during their last 10 games.

The Reds are 6-3 in their past nine road games. They are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, which should ensure motivation and a strong effort.

The pitching matchup is rookie Brandon Williamson versus Jake Woodford. I like Williamson better although this is an action play. Woodford is taking the place of Adam Wainwright, who was shut down after earning his 200th career victory. Woodford has a 5.09 ERA.

Congratulations to the Orioles for winning the tough AL East Division and earning the top seed in the American League. Baltimore clinched that distinction by beating the Red Sox, 2-0, on Thursday night.

So the Orioles can be excused if they mail in this game. After all, it's a meaningless game for them. Some regulars could get rested. The team still might be celebrating - or hung over.

It sets up a great underdog spot for the Red Sox. They've played Baltimore tough all season going 4-6 against the Orioles with half of the losses occurring by one run.

The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta against lefty John Means.

Pivetta runs hot and cold. Right now he's blazing, giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 1/3 innings. He has 13 strikeouts during this span. Pivetta pitched seven scoreless innings against the White Sox in his last start this past Saturday.

Pivetta is 7-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 61 career innings versus Baltimore.

Means is making only his fourth start having been out all season. He has a 5.40 home ERA this season. The Red Sox are 23-18 against southpaw starters this season. They rank in the top-10 in on-base percentage versus lefties.

Baltimore has been tough to go against all season. But this is one spot where it's justified.

The Brewers have dropped three consecutive games. But they still were able to clinch the National League Central Division title on Tuesday when the Cubs lost to the Braves.

Milwaukee isn't playing that well, doesn't have much incentive after clinching last night and is facing lefty, Zack Thompson. He's mediocre at best, but the Brewers don't hit lefties very well. They rank in the bottom-12 in the major categories versus southpaws. Milwaukee is 20-25 against lefties.

The Cardinals are looking to close a very disappointing season on a strong note. They draw veteran journeyman Wade Miley.

At this plus price, I'll fade Milwaukee given the circumstances.

Unlike other sports, baseball doesn't lend itself to situational handicapping except for a few rare times. This is one of those rare times.

The Phillies clinched the top wild-card spot by nipping the Pirates, 3-2, in 10 innings on Tuesday. They celebrated with champagne in the clubhouse.

I don't see the Phillies being motivated for this game since they already have clinched a postseason berth and will be hosting playoff games.

The Pirates are closing the season in respectable fashion winning eight of their last 13 games.

Pittsburgh is pitching John Oviedo, who has given up only one run during his last two starts spanning 11 innings against the Cubs and Yankees.

Ranger Suarez gets the start for Philadelphia. He's pitched much worse at home where he's 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA compared to being 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA on the road.

This is a cheap price to get the Rays, who have won 20 more games than the 76-81 Red Sox.

Tampa Bay is averaging seven runs in its last three games and draws Brayan Bello, a promising pitcher who has hit the wall with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. Bello is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts against the Rays. Bello was shelled by the Rangers in his past start last Wednesday giving up eight runs in three innings.

The Rays hold a big edge on the mound starting Tyler Glasnow, who is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA in 10 career starts versus Boston. He faced the Red Sox earlier this month and struck out 14 in six innings allowing just one run.

Tampa Bay has owned Boston this season winning 10 of the 12 meetings.

The Guardians are out of the playoff chase. The Reds are not. Cincinnati is in must-win mode and have hot Hunter Greene going against disappointing Lucas Giolito.

Greene is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts against the Twins this past Wednesday. Greene is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his past four starts. He has 35 strikeouts in his last 24 innings.

Giolito is 8-14 with a 4.70 ERA on the season. He's been tagged for 37 homers. He's becoming more of a journeyman than an above average starter. Giolito's teams are 2-12 during his last 14 starts.

The Reds are playing a lot of youth. Their young players are highly talented. They are on house money so they should be loose and not feel the pressure.

The Padres waited way too long. But they are on a season-best 9-1 hot streak. The Giants are going the opposite way - 2-8 in their last 10 games.

San Francisco has ace Logan Webb pitching at home here. Webb, however, is trumped by Blake Snell, the most effective pitcher in the National League.

Snell's season numbers are 14-9 with a 2.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 227 strikeouts in 174 innings. Webb can't match that at 10-13 with a 3.35 ERA.
What's so impressive about Snell, though, is his current form. He's working on 13 straight scoreless innings, allowing only two base runners in his past two starts. Snell is 5-1 career-wise against San Francisco with a 1.83 ERA.

San Diego is 10-1 in Snell's last 11 starts.

Rarely will I go against Webb when he pitches at home. But this is the exception, getting the much hotter team with the best pitcher in the league at a low lay price.

The pitching matchup is Shane Bieber versus Dean Kremer. That is misleading. So are the Guardians being the favorites.

Cleveland is eight games below .500 on the season. Baltimore is 37 games above .500.

The Guardians are trying to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. It's not realistic. The Orioles have motivation, too, being just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Rays in the AL East.

Bieber isn't the Bieber of past dominant seasons. He was 5-6 with a 3.77 ERA before going on the IL following his July 9 start. He hadn't pitched since and will be on around an 80-pitch count.

Kremer is 12-5 with a 4.17 ERA. That ERA drops to 3.51 when he pitches on the road.

David Peterson pitches bad on the road. Ranger Suarez is lousy at home. Both teams have been consistently scoring at better than a 5-run per game pace. The game is at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. So I see no reason for each team not to score at least four runs apiece.

Peterson is 1-6 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 10 road starts. He has a 5.53 career ERA in six starts against the Phillies. Philadelphia is averaging 5.5 runs per game during its last dozen games.

Suarez is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 10 home starts. He's never beaten the Mets in five career starts against them posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.

The Mets are averaging 5.6 runs in their last nine games.

At this late juncture of the season we know who the Yankees are: A .500 team. Actually New York is 76-75. Mediocre is a fitting description.

The Blue Jays are the more motivated team being in the playoff hunt. They've won four in a row following a three-game sweep of the Red Sox with a 7-1 victory against the Yankees last night.

I find this price low to back the superior Blue Jays with their ace, Kevin Gausman, on the mound. Gausman isn't having a great year, but he's been solid. He has a career 3.28 ERA versus the Yankees in 29 appearances, including 23 starts.

Converted reliever Michael King draws the start for New York. He's pitched well, but hasn't exceeded five innings all season. King entering the rotation thins the Yankees' bullpen.

Technically the Padres haven't been eliminated yet from the playoffs. Realistically yes, though, trailing by 5 1/2 games for the final NL wild-card spot with 11 games to go.

The underachieving Padres waited too long to put together their first five-game win streak of the season.

But the Padres want to achieve some kind of distinction from their disappointing season. That would be to get Blake Snell the Cy Young Award. Snell is a strong candidate for that honor with a 14-9 record and the league's lowest ERA at 2.43 and 217 strikeouts in 167 innings.

Snell is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts - and that was going against the Dodgers, Astros and Giants. The feeble Rockies are batting .231 on the road. They rank second-to-last in slugging percentage and on-base percentage away from Coors Field.

Snell should dominate a youthful, rebuilding Colorado lineup while his teammates should batter Colorado starter Ryan Feltner and a Colorado bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors at 5.29.

Feltner hasn't pitched since May 13 when he sustained a skull fracture after getting hit in the head by a line drive. Feltner is 2-3 on the season with a 5.86 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The Rockies probably will have Feltner on a pitch count.

San Diego is averaging eight runs per game during its last eight games. That hot-hitting definitely should continue here.

Anytime I see a total of less than nine on a Dodgers game, I think Over.

This Detroit-LA game isn't a pitching matchup of Mickey Lolich versus Sandy Koufax. It's Eduardo Rodriguez against Lance Lynn and both offenses are hot.

The Tigers are averaging 6.1 runs in their last six games. They've scored at least 5 runs in five of these games. The Tigers have gotten healthy and some of their young, promising offensive talent is developing.

Lynn is just an innings-eater mercenary at this late stage of his career. He's regressed since he first came to the Dodgers with a 9.37 ERA in his last three starts. Oh, yeah, he also has surrendered the most homers in the league at 41.

Rodriguez hasn't been sharp either, giving up seven earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. Rodriguez has permitted eight hits and a staggering nine walks during this time frame.

The Dodgers rank second in the majors in runs, homers and OPS. If you discount their one-run game against Blake Snell, the Dodgers are averaging 7.5 runs in their last nine games.

I respect the heck out of the Orioles. But the timing and pitching matchup are heavily against them in this one.

Baltimore clinched its first playoff berth since 2016 on Sunday with a walk-off extra inning home win against division rival Tampa Bay. The Orioles did plenty of celebrating following their achievement.

I doubt the Orioles will be at peak efficiency when they go on the road for the first time in eight games. The Orioles are also missing a couple of key injured players: closer Felix Bautista and slugger Ryan Mountcastle, who is fourth on the team in homers with 18 and fifth in RBI's with 67.

Lefty John Means will be making just his second appearance for the Orioles starting this game. Means had been out the entire season up until this past Tuesday because of Tommy John elbow surgery. He made this first start six days ago against the Cardinals, giving up three earned runs, including two homers, in five innings in a 5-2 loss.

The Orioles are hoping Means has the rust off when the playoffs begin. So Means is likely to have a longer leash than normally expected for someone on the comeback trail. The Astros rank in the top-four in many offensive categories against southpaws, including batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS.

The Astros are clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL West Division. They are expected to pitch future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who is 11-8 with a 3.39 ERA. Verlander's home ERA is 3.14.

Aaron Nola isn't having a good season by his lofty standards. But he dominates the Cardinals. That was on display on Aug. 27 when he threw seven shutout innings giving up only one hit with nine strikeouts and one walk.

Nola is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA in 10 career starts versus St. Louis.

The Phillies are 14 games better than the underachieving Cardinals, who have been on the road for their last nine games. This is St. Louis' first home game since Sept. 3. So this isn't a good situational spot for the Cardinals.

Zach Thompson goes for St. Louis. He's 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA in the majors.

The Cardinals have a couple of injuries, too. Nolan Gorman is out and Wilson Contreras is questionable. Gorman leads the Cardinals in homers, while Contreras is fourth on the Cardinals in homers and RBI's.

Each team probably is going to be missing an important speed/power guy. Dynamic Jazz Chisholm got hurt again for the Marlins in Wednesday's game leaving in the fourth inning with a knee injury. Christian Yelich has missed the past five games because of a back injury. The Brewers have scored 3 or fewer runs in three of their last four games.

Eury Perez is one of Miami's excellent pitching prospects. He's 5-4 with a 2.90 ERA on the season.

Adrian Houser, a bottom-of-the-rotation starter, gets the call for Milwaukee. But Houser is 2-0 with a 3.07 ERA in three career appearances versus the Marlins, including two starts. The Brewers have a rested stud closer in Devin Williams to call on if needed.

Brennan Miller is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed at 58 percent the past two seasons he's been behind the plate spanning 43 games.

The Mets took advantage of the Diamondbacks having to pitch a bottom-of-the-end rotation guy on Tuesday. But now Arizona is coming in with its ace, Zac Gallen.

Gallen doesn't pitch as well on the road, but he's still a stud and in the NL Cy Young Award conversation with a 15-7 record and 3.31 ERA. Opponents are batting only .229 against him.

The Diamondbacks are battling hard with five other teams for a wildcard playoff spot. They have incentive. The Mets don't. They are 12 games below .500. Mets manager Buck Showalter is trying to balance his veterans with youth knowing his team is in rebuild mode.

I'd stay away from this game if the Mets were going to pitch Kodai Senga because he's tough at home. But the Mets are giving Senga extra rest. Instead they are starting journeyman Joey Lucchesi, who hasn't pitched since Aug. 19. Lucchesi has made six starts this year. Only one was a quality start. So the Mets could be turning to their bullpen early.

Taj Bradley is a huge strikeout pitcher with a high ceiling. Dallas Keuchel has been washed up for several years. Somehow, though, he's made his way on to the Twins' roster.

I don't see Keuchel successfully navigating through a deep Rays lineup that has power and speed. Tampa ranks in the top-four in runs, homers and steals.

Bradley has 111 strikeouts in 86 innings. The Twins strike out more than any team in the majors.

Neither starter, Patrick Sandoval nor rookie Bryan Woo, is in good form. The bullpens have mileage on them.

So it's not too big of a task for each team to produce at least four runs.

Seattle has done that in five of its last seven games. The Mariners rank 10th in runs and homers. They draw Sandoval, who has surrendered nine earned runs in his past two starts spanning 8 2/3 innings. During this two-game span, Sandoval has given up 12 hits and seven walks. The Angels have the seventh-highest bullpen ERA.

Woo is off his second-worst outing of the season. He gave up five earned runs to the Reds in five innings during his last start.

I'm not counting on it, but there's a chance Shohei Ohtani returns to the Angels' lineup today. He was nearly ready last night.

The underdog Marlins are playing well, winners of eight of their last 10 games. They catch the Brewers at what should be a good time.

This is Milwaukee's first game back home following a six-game road trip that concluded Sunday with an unbelievable loss to the Yankees. Corbin Burnes threw a no-hitter for eight innings. All together, Milwaukee pitchers didn't allow a hit for 10 1/3 innings. Yet Milwaukee lost the game in 13 innings.

That bizarre defeat has to be on the Brewers' minds as they return home, not to mention getting acclimated to seeing their families returning from a road trip. So their concentration may not be at peak efficiency.

The Brewers do have Brandon Woodruff starting. He's 4-1 with a 2.30 ERA. Very solid. But the Marlins also have a hot pitcher, lefty Jesus Luzardo. He's given up only two earned runs in his last three starts spanning 18 innings with a 1.00 ERA and 0.61 WHIP during this span. Luzardo hasn't faced weak competition either during this time frame pitching against the Dodgers, Rays and Padres.

Milwaukee has never faced Luzardo before giving him the element of surprise. The Brewers fare much worse against southpaws, too. They are 62-41 versus righty starters, but 17-22 against lefties. The Brewers average only 3.2 runs against lefties, ranking in the bottom-seven in batting average and slugging percentage against them.

Fat and happy after sweeping the Rangers in Texas, the Astros got whacked at home, 11-2, by the Padres on Friday.

I see this as a great bounce back spot for Houston. The Padres are one of the biggest underachievers in baseball. They are second only to the Royals in money lost by bettors.

This is an action play for me with a pitching matchup of Christian Javier versus Seth Lugo, who has been pitching well but has faced weak-hitting opponents during his last three starts.

The Astros rank fifth in runs scored, while the unclutch Padres are 17th in runs and 23rd in batting average.

The Rockies are playing a lot of young, untested players, have trouble hitting away from Coors Field and are facing a lefty. That's all bad for their offense.

The Giants also are facing a southpaw. They are well below average against lefties ranking second-from-the bottom in slugging percentage and 28th in OPS. That's good news for Colorado's lefty starter Ty Blach, a former Giant. He's pitched well in three of his last five starts.

San Francisco has scored three or fewer runs in five of its last six games. The Giants have scored two or fewer runs in four of those games.

Good looking rookie southpaw Kyle Harrison, one of the team's top prospects, gets the call for the Giants. The Rockies have never faced him. Harrison held the Reds to no runs on three hits and had 11 strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings during his last home start.

The Rockies are batting .229 in road games, the fourth-lowest away batting average. They also have the second-lowest OPS versus lefties and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in slugging percentage versus southpaws.

Judging by this low line, the oddsmaker still hasn't fully grasped that the Orioles have the second-best record in baseball behind only the Braves. They also have the top road record in the American League at 46-25.

Baltimore has won five in a row. Boston is 3-7 in its last 10 games. The Red Sox have lost 17 more games than the Orioles.

The Orioles have the better starter going with Kyle Bradish facing Tanner Houck.

Yet the Orioles are only a small favorite. Well, I certainly don't mind laying this low of a price with the superior team especially with an edge in starting pitchers.

Bradish is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during his last five starts.

Houck is 4-8 on the season with a 5.07 ERA. His home ERA on the year is 5.40.

Two major reasons why I like the Under in this matchup: Cubs starter Javier Assad and the weather, primarily the wind. It's going to be blowing in at 10-15 mph.

Assad has been fantastic in going 3-2 with a 2.69 ERA in seven starts. He's been super sharp in his last three starts with a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The key Cubs' relievers are rested, including closer Adbert Alzolay.

Arizona scored 12 runs on the hapless Rockies at home yesterday. Previously to that, however, the Diamondbacks had averaged 2.8 runs in their last eight games. Arizona also might be without dynamic rookie Corbin Carroll, who left Wednesday's game with a bruised wrist after being hit by a pitch.

Ryne Nelson gets the start for Arizona. He's been respectable on the road with a 4-2 record and 3.30 ERA.

Maybe the Angels get Shohei Ohtani back in their lineup. Maybe. But even if Ohtani returns from oblique tightness, the Angels are a near auto-fade while the Orioles continue to be a play-on team. The lay price is low enough to back Baltimore.

The Orioles have the best road mark in the American League at 45-25. They are 32-16 against lefty starters and going against southpaw Patrick Sandoval.

Baltimore has won four in a row. The Angels have dropped five straight and eight of their last nine games. The Angels are 11 games below .500, their worst mark of the season.

Kyle Gibson goes for the Orioles. He's 13-8 with a 5.15 ERA. The Orioles get back their best relief pitcher, Yennier Cano, with closer Felix Bautista out for possibly the season. Cano didn't pitch last night because of previous high usage.

Sandoval is 7-11 with a 4.19 ERA. The Angels are 4-13 in his last 17 starts. Baltimore ranks in the top-10 versus lefties in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Down Joe Musgrave and Yu Darvish, the Padres are forced to turn to Pedro Avila today against the hot-hitting Phillies. Avila has given up seven earned runs in his last three appearances spanning only eight innings.

Philadelphia is averaging 7.1 runs in its last 17 games!

San Diego should contribute to this Over, too. The Padres have been good for at least four runs in nine of their last 10 games. They get to face a cold Michael Lorenzen, who has permitted 13 earned runs in his last three starts spanning 15 innings. During these last 15 innings, Lorenzen has been tagged for 24 hits and walked six.

Why the Rockies?

Arizona rookie Brandon Pfaadt that's why. He's getting the start today. Pfaadt is 1-7 with a 6.21 ERA. Because the Diamondbacks are ridiculously high favorites, I can back the visiting Rockies getting 1 1/2 runs on the run line at a small lay price. 

Lefty Kyle Freeland hasn't been very good for Colorado at 5-14 with a 5.18 ERA. But I prefer him against Pfaadt. Freeland isn't pitching at Coors Field and he's stepping down in class after getting shelled by the powerful Braves during his last start.

The Braves are the best hitting team against lefties. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-nine versus southpaws in slugging percentage and OPS. 
Arizona would be 5-8 in its last 13 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. 

Some teams just can't play at funky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one such team. Boston plays outdoors on grass at Fenway Park. The Rays' Tropicana Field is just the opposite - a dome stadium with artificial turf and the smallest seating capacity in the majors.

The Red Sox are 1-13 in their last 14 games at Tropicana Field.

Expect Boston to be 1-14 following Tuesday's game with a pitching matchup of Kutter Crawford versus Zach Eflin, who would become the AL's first 14-game winner with a victory.

Crawford, who has a losing record, already has thrown a career-high 103 innings. He could be hitting a wall with a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts. Crawford has a 5.29 night ERA.

The Rays have the top combination of speed and power in the American League. They rank in the top-four in runs, homers, OPS and steals.

Eflin has pitched his best at home where he's 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA. He's in excellent current form, unlike Crawford, with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.

The Red Sox could still be missing Alex Verdugo, one of their top-six hitters. He's been out since Sunday with a hamstring injury.

The Padres have been a monster disappointment this year. But they are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Giants.

Impressed? I'm not. The Giants are a struggling team and San Diego hasn't won four in a row all season.

I don't see it happening here in a pitching matchup of Taijuan Walker versus 43-year-old southpaw Rich Hill.

Walker is 14-5 with a 4.11 ERA. He has dominated the Padres in his career with a 4-3 mark, 2.51 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in eight career starts. The Padres are hitting just .178 against him.

Hill is 7-13 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 26 starts.

The Phillies are averaging 5.1 runs against lefties and rank sixth in slugging percentage against them.

There may not be a better homefield pitcher than Zac Gallen. He's 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA this season when pitching in Arizona.

Gallen and the possibility of three power hitters being out are the reasons I like this total to go Under.

Baltimore could be minus Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle. Santander leads the Orioles in homers and RBI's. Mountcastle is third on the team in homers and RBI's. Mountcastle missed Saturday's game due to illness. Santander and Walker were removed from Saturday's game after each getting hit by a pitch.

Jack Flaherty gets the start for the Orioles. He's far from the ace he was with the Cardinals, but he's a veteran, savvy pitcher that should hold his own against an Arizona lineup that could be missing some starters.

Unless it's Bob Gibson versus Sandy Koufax, I'm going Over a total of less than nine in a Braves-Dodgers game. These are the two highest scoring teams in baseball.

Both teams are hot at the plate, too. The Braves are averaging 6.8 runs in their last eight games. The Dodgers also are averaging 6.8 runs during their last nine games.

Max Fried and Julio Urias, the two starting pitchers, aren't going to be able to slow these offenses down and the bullpens carry high fatigue ratings.

Fried is trying to get back to being 100 percent after being out three months with a left forearm strain. He has a 3.58 ERA in five starts since returning in August.

Urias isn't the pitcher of last season when he led the NL in ERA. He also missed time - six weeks because of a hamstring injury - and has a 4.41 ERA.

The Diamondbacks got a cold reality check. They just got swept on the road by the Dodgers losing all three games by a 23-5 margin. 

Now the Diamondbacks return home to take on the Orioles, who have the same elite record as the Dodgers at 83-50. 

The Orioles just finished 18-9 in August. They are 41-24 on the road. The price is short to lay with the superior team - Baltimore. Arizona is not nearly in this class. 

The pitching matchup is Cole Irvin, 1-3, 4.78 ERA, versus Arizona's Zach Davies, 1-5 with a 6.93 ERA. I prefer the crafty lefty Irvin. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-10 in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage against southpaws. Irvin has a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. 

Baltimore ranks seventh in runs. Davies is a fly-ball pitcher, who has surrendered 20 or more homers in five of the last eight years. 

The Braves not only have the best record in baseball, but they have one of the great offenses of modern times. Atlanta ranks No. 1 in nearly every major category, including runs, batting average, homers and OPS. The Braves have seven players with 20 or more homers.

Colorado has one player with more than 15 homers.

So it's not a surprise the Braves have absolutely dominated the Rockies winning 12 of the past 13 games, including all six this season.

The setting is optimal for another huge Braves' scoring performance. They are playing at Coors Field and going against lefty Kyle Freeland. The Braves are batting .296 against southpaws. The next closest team is hitting .280. The Braves have a .534 slugging percentage versus lefties. The next closest team is at .479.

Plus Freeland sucks. He's 5-13 with a 5.00 ERA. That ERA goes up even more to 5.80 when you look at his lifetime ERA against the Braves in seven appearances. The Braves last saw Freeland on June 15. They got to him for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Darius Vines is set to make his major league debut for the Braves. He's a wild-card here. But the Braves are known for their wealth of young pitching talent. Vines had a 2.70 ERA in nine minor league starts since recovering from shoulder inflammation at the end of June.

The Rockies are bad and unmotivated, losers of eight of their last nine games. So even if Vines doesn't fare well - which I don't think will happen - the Braves' offense still should score a ton of runs to win by multiple runs.

The Cubs snapped the Brewers' season-high nine-game win streak, 1-0, last night. Justin Steele outdueled Corbin Burnes in a great pitching matchup. But the Brewers were victimized more than the Cubs by 20 mph winds blowing in.

This time there will be just a slight wind blowing out. So weather shouldn't play a part. Given a level playing condition, I like the Brewers to return to their winning ways in a matchup of righthanders Brandon Woodruff versus Kyle Hendricks.

Woodruff is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Woodruff is a stud pitcher when healthy - and he's back healthy. He's allowed more than two earned runs only once in six starts. Woodruff struck out 11 Padres batters in his last start this past Friday, a 7-3 Milwaukee victory.

Backing up Woodruff is a rested Devin Williams, an elite closer.

Hendricks is an average starter, nothing special. He's pitched worse at home where he's 2-4 with a 4.84 ERA. The Brewers have done far better against righties than southpaws. Milwaukee is 57-37 versus righthanders this season.

Stay away from Brewer and Cub hitters in daily fantasy today. Not only are two ace pitchers going - Corbin Burnes and Justin Steele - but the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field at 18-to-20 mph.

The lefty Steele is 14-3 with a 3.20 ERA and has a 1.18 WHIP. He's emerged into a star pitcher. The Brewers are a bottom-10 team against southpaw pitching. They average 3.3 runs against lefties.

Burnes isn't enjoying another Cy Young-caliber season, but he's still well above average. He has a 3.08 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 14 road starts this season.

The White Sox are garbage. They are 28 games below .500 because they rank 25th in runs, 26th in ERA and have a dreadful bullpen.

Baltimore is the opposite. The Orioles are an American League-best 82-49. They have been the most profitable team for bettors.

One reason for this is a below-the-radar pitcher named Dean Kremer. His 4.31 ERA may look unimposing, but Baltimore is 12-3 in his home starts this season. Kremer has made three starts this month at Camden Yards. He's 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in those outings.

The Orioles crushed the listless White Sox, 9-0, on Monday. That was Baltimore's eighth win in its last 10 games. The Orioles can't afford a letdown with just a 2 1/2-game lead on the Rays in the AL East Division.

The White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games. They've lost by more than one run during each of their past seven defeats. During this span, the White Sox's average loss is by 7.7 runs.

I don't see the White Sox getting turned around against this opponent with rookie Jesse Scholtens on the mound. He's 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Scholtens is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox's bullpen, which lacks a legitimate closer, has the fifth-highest ERA in baseball.

So I see another kill spot for the Orioles setting up this run line winner.

I don't get the love for Miami here. The Marlins are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They are one game above .500. Tampa Bay is 80-52 and has won eight of its last 10 games.

Yet the Marlins are favored.

Is the pitching matchup so strong in Miami's favor?

No.

It's Aaron Civale and a rested Tampa Bay bullpen versus Sandy Alcantara.

This isn't last season when Alcantara captured the NL Cy Young Award with a 2.28 ERA. He's been pitching better, but he's not dominant like last year. He's 6-11 with a 4.16 ERA.

Civale is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He's 6-3 with a 2.59 ERA. Tampa Bay was idle on Monday.

The Astros have scored 26 runs in their last two games. Those games were at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Now Houston gets to play at Fenway Park, one of the best hitter's parks, against a lefty starter. The Astros are 25-15 versus southpaws this season for 63 percent.

The pitching matchup is Christian Javier versus lefty Chris Sale.

Houston ranks second in slugging percentage and OPS against southpaw pitching. The Astros are fourth against lefties in batting average and OBP.

Sale has struggled since coming off the injured list. This will be his fourth start since then. He's 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in this span. He's averaged fewer than five innings. The last time Sale went more than five innings was way back on May 20.

Boston's bullpen is below average ranking 18th in ERA.

Javier moved his record to 9-2 when he beat Boston, 9-4, as a minus $1.20 home favorite last Monday. Now the Astros are underdogs.

Doesn't make sense to me. Sale has yet to show he's regained any semblance of his one-time dominant pitching form. The Astros have the stronger bullpen and could catch the Red Sox minus their best power hitter, Rafael Devers. He leads Boston in homers and RBI's. Devers missed Sunday's loss to the Dodgers after getting hit in the wrist during Saturday's game.

As bad as the Yankees are, they still are better than Detroit. The Yankees should be fired-up after a highly contentious series against the Rays.

The Tigers don't get ripped on like the Yankees because no one expects anything from them. Detroit has lived up to form again this season with a 59-71 record. That's three games worse than the Yankees.

Detroit just lost its last two games by a combined 20 runs to the Astros.

The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus Reese Olson. Miserable is too nice of a word to describe how Severino's pitched after returning from a lat muscle injury. It's been hideous - up to his last start. Severino held the Nationals to one hit and two walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to pick up a victory last Wednesday. So there's hope.

Severino has a strong history versus Detroit with a 4-1 career mark and 2.11 ERA in seven starts.

Olson is 2-5 with a 5.29 ERA, which jumps up to a 6.75 ERA if you go by his last three starts.

Kudos to the Brewers for winning seven in a row and building a four-game lead in the NL Central Division.

Milwaukee has a right to feel a little fat and happy. I don't see the Brewers winning this game, though, facing one of the more below-the-radar pitchers in the majors.

San Diego starter Michael Wacha is 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA. He is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last seven starts. This will be his third start since coming off the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. He's 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in those two outings pitching 10 1/3 innings against the Marlins and Orioles.

The Brewers are going with Adrian Houser, a fifth-type rotation starter. He's 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA. Houser had a 5.66 ERA in four July starts and has a 3.80 ERA in four starts this month.

This low lay price makes it easy to back the Cubs.

The Cubs have owned the Pirates winning eight of nine games from them this season.

Look for that to continue in a pitching matchup of Javier Assad versus Bailey Falter.

Assad is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He's been sharp lately with a 2.86 ERA in his last four starts.

Falter is 1-7 with a 4.53 ERA. Falter has a 9.35 ERA in four career appearances versus the Cubs.

Two of the more underrated pitchers in the American League are Cleveland rookie Tanner Bibee and Toronto's nine-year veteran Chris Bassitt. They face each other here and the oddsmaker has set the total too high overlooking just how effective these two pitchers have been.

Bibee has been getting better, not worse. He's 7-1 with a 2.34 ERA in his past 11 outings. One of these starts came against the Blue Jays on August 8. Bibee held the Blue Jays scoreless for seven innings in a 1-0 victory. He allowed six hits with no walks and six strikeouts.

Bassitt has been excellent at home compiling a 6-2 mark with a 2.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in a dozen home starts for the Blue Jays this season.

Bassitt draws a weak-hitting Guardians squad that ranks last in homers and 28th in runs. Cleveland is averaging just 2.6 runs per game in its last seven games if you discount an eight-run performance against the Dodgers.

Luis Severino is the Adam Wainwright of the American League, a once very-good pitcher, who has been absolutely terrible this season.

Severino is enduring the worst stretch of his eight-year career. He is 1-6 with an 11.08 ERA during his last eight outings, including seven starts. He's surrendered 19 homers on the season in 65 2/3 innings. His last three starts have been absolutely brutal - a 13.50 ERA and 2.38 WHIP.

The Nationals know how to get on base. They rank fifth in the majors in batting average.

The Yankees go against lefty MacKenzie Gore, who has a 5.11 road ERA. The Yankees are averaging 5.1 runs against southpaws this season.

On paper, the Angels are justified being home favorites with a pitching matchup of Graham Ashcraft opposing Lucas Giolito.

Reality is different.

The Reds have the hotter pitcher going and are the more motivated team.

Cincinnati harbors postseason hope. They have a lot of exciting youth. The Angels have fallen out of realistic playoff contention having lost 13 of their last 18 games.

Ashcraft has a 4.89 ERA. However, he has pitched much better during the second half of the season. Ashcraft hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during each of his past nine starts. His road and night splits are much better than his home and day time pitching numbers.

Ashcraft could catch the Angels' hitters rusty from not having played the last two days.

Giolito is having a second straight down season. He's been especially bad for the Angels since coming from the White Sox. Giolito has made four starts for the Angels and is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA.

The Reds' 33-27 road mark is better than the Angels' home record.

He's 40, but Justin Verlander still is an elite pitcher. He isn't being priced like one, however, pitching at home against the Red Sox and Tanner Houck.

Houck has been out the past two months after taking a line drive below his right eye against the Yankees on June 16. It remains to be seen how long and effective Houck can be.

Before his injury, Houck wasn't in good form with an 0-6 record and 5.40 ERA during his last nine starts.

The Astros are off a well-played victory against the Red Sox last night. I like the pitching matchup for the Astros and their momentum. The Red Sox are just a .500 team on the road.

After a fun Sunday playing the Nationals in the MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., the Phillies will be taking this game very seriously, especially after getting upset by Washington last night.

As well as they should.

The Phillies are just two games ahead of the Giants for a wild-card berth.

I like the Phillies' chances here. They've won eight of their past dozen home games and hold a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola facing Scott Alexander in what shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Nola pitches better at home where his ERA is 3.59 compared to 5.26 on the road.

The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 games. They just placed shortstop Brandon Crawford on the injured list leaving them with a huge gap at a key defensive position.

San Francisco's bullpen is stretched, too. Giants relievers had to pitch 7 1/3 innings to edge the Braves, 4-3, on Sunday after starter Jakob Junis pitched just 1 2/3 innings.

That was just the Giants' second away victory during their last 14 road games.

I harbor no big illusions anymore for Michael Kopech. I thought for years he would be a great pitcher once he got fully healthy. It hasn't happened. Kopech is who he is - a potentially high strikeout pitcher with mediocre numbers, 5-10 record and 4.58 ERA.

But the White Sox and Kopech still are better than the Rockies and their starter, Peter Lambert, who is 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA.

The White Sox are a major disappointment. However, they still have some feared batters. Luis Robert Jr. gives them the best player on the field. The Rockies are in full rebuild mode.

Chicago is 5-5 in its last 10 games. Colorado is 2-8 in its past 10 games.

Kopech has made just two career starts against the Rockies, but has a strong record to show for that: 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA. He pitched at Coors Field a little more than a year ago and didn't allow a run in 5 1/3 innings.

Corbin Burnes has been back on track for the last month and a half. He's 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings spanning his past eight starts. Burnes has earned trust to hold the powerful Dodgers in check.

But can an Under work when Lance Lynn is the opposing pitcher?

Probably not when Lynn was pitching for the White Sox. But Lynn has been dominant since coming to the Dodgers going 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three starts. He has a strong history, too, versus the Brewers going 11-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 108 1/3 innings that spans 21 appearances, including 17 starts.

Lynn is not facing a very good offensive team. Milwaukee is well below average - 22nd in runs, 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS. The Brewers are having problems scoring in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium managing only three runs during the first two games of this series.

Not only could the Cardinals be down four key starters here against the Mets, but they are pitching Adam Wainwright.

Wainwright has a shot at being a Hall of Famer, but he should have retired at the end of last season like his future Hall of Fame teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina.

Instead Wainwright chose to return this year. He shouldn't have. It's been embarrassing. Wainwright has given up three or more runs in 14 of his 15 starts. He's 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA. St. Louis is 2-9 in his last 11 starts.

Not only is Wainwright an auto-fade now, but the Cardinals could be missing four important players facing veteran and former Cardinal Jose Quintana, who is in good form having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Quintana has a 3.03 ERA on the season.

Nolan Gorman has missed St. Louis' last three games with a lower back injury. Catcher Wilson Contreras has sat out the past two games due to a hip injury. Then on Wednesday, centerfielder Lars Nootbaar and shortstop Tommy Edman left with injuries. After Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, these could be the Cardinals' next four best players.

The Cardinals have underachieved all season, particularly at home where they are 27-34.

St. Louis management doesn't want to embarrass Wainwright. But no way should he still be in the rotation after surrendering eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just one inning against the Royals this past Friday. That's up there for the worst pitching performance of the season.

The Mets have been a major disappointment, too, but they are swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in their last four games.

You know with a total this high on a Cubs home game that wind has to factor.

It does.

The forecast is for 15 mph winds blowing out to left field.

The Cubs have an underrated top-10 offense. They are getting big seasons from a number of below-the-radar hitters, including Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner and recently acquired Jeimer Candelairo. The Cubs rank fifth in the majors in runs, eighth in OPS and 10th in batting average.

The White Sox have produced at least five runs in six of their last nine games. They are averaging five runs a game during their last five games with four of those matchups coming against pitchers much better than who the Cubs will pitch against them.

The Cubs could start Javier Assad. This could turn into a bullpen game for the Cubs.

Both team's closers pitched last night and could be unavailable.

The White Sox are expected to start Mike Clevinger. The White Sox's bullpen has the seventh-highest ERA in the league.

Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team.

Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson.

Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts.

Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road.

Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team.

Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson.

Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts.

Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road.

It didn't draw much publicity, but Logan Gilbert had one of the best starts of the season this past Tuesday. Gilbert shut out the Padres for seven innings giving up one hit and no walks while striking out 12. That was at home.

The underrated Gilbert is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA when pitching on the road. He has a 2.58 ERA during his last seven starts. Gilbert faces a weak-hitting Royals team that ranks 28th in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers.

Opposing Gilbert is Brady Singer, whose season numbers don't impress at 8-8 with a 5.05 ERA. Singer, however, has been below-the-radar since the All-Star break compiling a 2.94 ERA. He has surrendered just seven earned runs during his past four starts spanning 25 2/3 innings with a 27-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame.

The Royals enjoyed a rare Sunday off. So their bullpen is rested.

The Mariners rank 25th in batting average. They do not have one regular batting higher than .266. Seattle has scored fewer than four runs in five of its last seven games.

With this number coming down, I'm going to get involved in the Over. Each team should be good for at least four runs.

Angels rookie starter Chase Silseth is pitching better than his metrics show. He's been lucky and is due for regression. The Angels' bullpen has the third-highest ERA in the league during the past nine days.

The Astros are averaging 5.2 runs during the past 2 1/2 months, which is the highest in the American League.

The Angels should do their share of damage against a rusty Jose Urquidy, who has a 6.20 ERA. This is just his second start since April. The Angels have averaged nearly five runs since the beginning of June.

This should be an excellent pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole going against Eury Perez.

We know we're going to get a strong performance from Cole, an elite starter. Cole has permitted two runs or fewer in 18 of his 24 starts this season. The only pitcher that can match that consistency is Blake Snell.

The Yankees, who lost to the Marlins on Saturday, are 9-1 following a loss when Cole has been on the mound for the next game.

Perez is a rookie with a high ceiling. However, he's not as consistent as Cole. Perez has lost his last three decisions, including giving up four runs in four innings in a loss to the Reds this past Monday.

I find it good value to get Cole in this price range.

Two below-the-radar pitchers go at it here. The Cardinals are going with Steven Matz. KC is starting Cole Ragans.

Matz is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last six starts. He faces a Royals offense that ranks 28th in runs. He also won't have to deal with injured leadoff hitter Maikel Garcia, who is hitting .304 in his last 35 games.

Ragans has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals since coming from the Rangers. He has a 1.02 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings with the Royals.

The oddsmaker is not showing these pitchers enough respect with this high of a total.

After playing 27 games in 28 days, the Reds received a much needed day off on Thursday. I see them coming up big against the Pirates today with good-looking rookie lefty Andrew Abbott and a finally fresh bullpen that has a lower ERA than Pittsburgh's bullpen.

The Pirates could be in a letdown mood after splitting four exciting games against the Braves at home.

Abbott is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has 74 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank 27th in slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching.

Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to make this start. So the price is right to back the Angels and Ohtani.

Just two starts ago, Ohtani threw a complete game one-hit, shutout against the Tigers. Ohtani has a 2.97 home ERA. The Giants have a below offense and don't steal bases ranking second-to-last in the league.

San Francisco also leads the National League in errors and its bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. That matters because this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants.

Giants starter Ryan Walker hasn't pitched more than three innings in a game all season.

Mike Trout isn't back yet for the Angels, but underrated Brandon Drury just came off the injured list. He had three hits and scored three runs for the Angels last night.

Anytime there's a double-digit total on the Royals, my first look is to the Under.

It's my last look, too, for this matchup as I don't see the Red Sox and Royals reaching 10 runs in this game.

Kansas City ranks second-to-last in the league in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers. The Royals are likely to be without their star power-hitting catcher Salvador Perez. He was pulled from Sunday's game suffering a bruised hand after being hit by a pitch. Perez is second on the Royals in homers and RBI's.

That's good news for Boston starter Brayan Bello, who leads the Red Sox in victories. Bello is 8-6 with a 3.79 ERA. That ERA goes down to 3.29 when he pitches at home and shrinks to 2.82 when he pitches at night.

Lefty Cole Ragans draws the start for Kansas City. He's 3-3 with a 4.33 ERA, but is below-the-radar with his current form. He's given up just one earned run in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. Ragans has struck out 11 during this 11-inning span.

The Red Sox rank slightly below average against lefties in slugging percentage and OPS.

The wind will be blowing in at seven mph, another plus for the Under.

Fresh off a three-game road sweep of the Red Sox, the Blue Jays come into Cleveland riding high. But that doesn't mean they should be favored in a pitching matchup of Hyun Jin Ryu versus rookie Gavin Williams.

Ryu made his first big league start since undergoing elbow surgery in June of 2022 this past Tuesdayagainst the Orioles. It did not go well. He permitted four runs on nine hits in five-plus innings. The Orioles won, 13-3.

Obviously rusty, Ryu is likely going to need several more starts to find his groove - if he can find it.

Williams has a high ceiling and is pitching well with a 2.50 ERA in his past four starts. Williams has the element of surprise as the Blue Jays have never faced him. Williams also has the benefit of the stronger bullpen. Cleveland's relief staff has the fourth-lowest ERA.

The lay price is high here for the Braves even on the run line. It should be. Because the Braves hold all the edges - and these are big edges. 
Let's start with the obvious. Atlanta has the best record in baseball at 70-39. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. 

The Braves are the road team. So they'll be assured of getting nine innings of at bats. 

The pitching matchup pits an ''A'' pitcher against a ''D'' type pitcher with Spencer Strider facing Osvaldo Bido.

Strider is 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA. He leads the majors in strikeouts. If he wins this game, he'll be tied for the most victories in the majors. Strider has been at his best, too, on the road where he's 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA. 

Bido is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA. Bido is not in good form with a 7.27 ERA in his last three starts. He pitches worse at home where he's 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA. 
The Braves rank either first or second in runs, batting average, homers and OPS. The Pirates rank among the bottom-seven in those major offensive categories. 

Atlanta won't lack motivation having lost two straight games. If you discount a one-run game against the Angels, the Braves are averaging eight runs per game during their last eight games. 

Each of the Braves' last 11 victories have been by more than one run. 

Lots of big-name hitters here facing two over-the-hill starting pitchers.

Sounds like it shouldn't be too difficult for the Dodgers and Padres to reach double-digit runs, right?

Not so fast.

Let's not forget this game is being played at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors.

Lance Lynn and Rich Hill are a combined 79 years old. Neither has good statistics, but they are savvy veterans both acquired at the trade deadline because they know how to navigate through big games such as this one.

Lynn's problem is giving up too many home runs. He's surrendered 31 of them this season. But Lynn also has 151 strikeouts in 126 innings, which comes out to an average of 10.7 per nine innings. So he still can fire.

The Dodgers' bullpen has shown big improvement leading the league with a 2.84 ERA since June 30 entering the weekend.

The underachieving Padres offense ranks 19th in batting average and 13th in runs.

Look for Hill to pitch better going from the Pirates to the Padres. The lefty won't lack motivation with this being his first start for San Diego. The Dodgers rank 24th in batting average versus southpaw pitching.

This is a huge game for the Padres. They have a rested Josh Hader to go two innings if needed.

Given their large payroll, the Padres are one of the most disappointing teams in baseball.

But don't blame Blake Snell. He's the hottest pitcher in baseball having given up only six earned runs in his last 13 starts! Snell leads the majors with a 2.50 ERA.

The pitching matchup is so huge in San Diego's favor that this is a fair price to lay to get Snell against probable Dodgers starter Michael Grove and what could be a host of below par LA relief pitchers.

Grove has a 6.75 ERA. He just gave up eight runs on 10 hits and a walk to the Reds in six innings this past Sunday.

It's not hard to envision these teams each producing at least nine runs given the starting pitching matchup and the White Sox gutting their bullpen at the trade deadline.

Chicago starter Michael Kopech has been a major disappointment after beginning his career with such high promise. He's 4-10 with a 4.49 ERA. That ERA climbs to 5.09 when he pitches at night. The Guardians just faced Kopech six days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings.

Noah Syndergaard draws the start for Cleveland. Syndergaard has struggled following major arm surgery. He's 1-4 with a 6.68 ERA.

Not only is there a huge class difference in this one, but also in the starting pitchers.

Tampa Bay wisely traded for Aaron Civale, who is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 5-2 record, 2.34 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts.

Civale faces a weak-hitting Tigers lineup that ranks in the bottom-three in many of the major categories, including runs, batting average and homers.

Civale has made 10 career starts versus Detroit. His team won all 10 of those starts with Civale posting a 2.06 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.

Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in good form either with a 7.24 ERA in his last three starts.