Come tournament time strong defenses have turned into great defenses. That's the case with Purdue and Connecticut.

The Boilermakers have allowed an average of only 61.2 points in regulation during their seven games, spanning the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament.

Connecticut has gone Under in nine of its last 10 games, including the past six. The Huskies have held seven of their last nine foes to 60 points or fewer.

So it's no surprise early money has come on the Under. The Under is helped, too, by Connecticut's slow pace and the game being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., which is known for being a tough venue for shooters.

Zach Edey has been dominant scoring inside for Purdue. But the 7-foot-4 Edey will face his biggest challenge going against 7-2 Donovan Clingan. Both are excellent defenders. Clingan ranked eighth in the nation in blocked shots per game.

How good is Illinois' offense? The Illini just put up 72 points on Iowa State's fifth-ranked defense despite going just 15-of-29 from the foul line for 52 percent. Illinois' season free throw percentage is 74.1 percent.

Illinois ranks 12th in the nation in scoring and second in offensive efficiency. Connecticut is strong defensively, but not as good as Iowa State.

There hasn't been any stopping Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr. He's averaging 30.2 points in his last seven games, the hottest player in the country.
Connecticut has even a better offense than Illinois in terms of efficiency ranking No. 1 in the country. The Huskies are going to get their points against an Illinois defense that ranks below average rating 214th in scoring defense and 259th in 3-point defense.

Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies.

Texas A&M has picked up its offense at the right time averaging 90.2 points in its last five games. The Aggies rank third in the nation in offensive rebounding and are a better free throw shooting team than Houston.

It takes good guards to beat Houston. Texas A&M has that. The Aggies also are healthier than the banged-up Cougars.

The two teams played each other this season. The game was played in Houston and the Cougars won, 70-66, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite. Now the game is at a neutral site and the point spread is much higher.

The Aggies have proven themselves against some elite opponents beating Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa State. The Cougars just met Iowa State in the finals of the Big 12 Tournament championship game and lost big, 69-41.

I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante.

Sparked by Dante stepping up the past few weeks as he's gotten fully healthy, the Ducks won the Pac-12 tournament - beating Arizona in the semifinals - and then knocking off South Carolina by 14 points in their opening NCAA Tournament game.

This game holds special meaning for Altman, a native of Nebraska who spent 16 seasons coaching Creighton leading the Bluejays to seven NCAA Tourney appearances.

Akron couldn't handle Creighton's height and shot poorly in losing to the Bluejays in the first round. Creighton, though, is stepping up in class with Oregon.

The Bluejays have to contend not only with Dante, but Oregon's hot-shooting guards. Dante missed the start of the season, but he's averaged 19.9 points on 84.1 percent shooting from the floor during his last seven games.

Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation.
 
The Owls reached the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last season before losing to San Diego State by one point on a buzzer beater. Florida Atlantic returns that experience and is in an angry mood after a stunning upset loss to Temple in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. 

Northwestern was fortunate to even be picked for the NCAA Tournament. I have Florida Atlantic ranked way ahead of the Wildcats in my power ratings. Not helping matters for Northwestern is injuries. Senior guard Ty Berry is out. He's the Wildcats' fourth leading scorer and center Matthew Nicholson is dealing with a knee injury.

Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday.

Grant McCasland continued a recent Texas Tech tradition of strong coaching. The Red Raiders were riding a hot streak until running into second-ranked Houston in the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals.

The Big 12 may be the best conference in the country this season, while it was a down year for the ACC.

Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C.

"Playing in the postseason is a huge deal,'' Appalachian State coach Dustin Kerns was quoted as saying. "This is another stair taken upwards in the evolution of our program. No one on our team has ever played in the NIT, so this will be a great experience for everyone."

Appalachian State has the motivation and is good enough to upset Wake Forest straight-up. The Mountaineers rank 30th defensively and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. Each team averages 78 points a game. The Mountaineers are the stronger defensive team.

The Mountaineers can contain Wake Forest's pick-and-rolls and they have elite rim protector Justin Abson, who was the NCAA's fourth-leading shot-blocker. The Mountaineers defeated James Madison, a team getting a lot of love in the NCAA Tournament, twice this season.

The Mountaineers have won 16 of their last 18 games. Wake Forest is 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games. Appalachian State and Wake Forest last met two years ago and Wake Forest won by one point.

It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday.

But now the Badgers go from getting past the best big man in the Big Ten in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey to perhaps the most talented player in the conference, Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr.

The Badgers entered the Big Ten Tournament losing eight of their last 11 games. The Badgers beat Maryland and banged-up Northwestern. Their victory against Purdue was a gutty effort. However, I don't see the Badgers pulling off a second straight upset in two days with some of their energy zapped from such a physical and emotional tussle with the Boilermakers.

Illinois also is not a good matchup for Wisconsin. The team's met once this season at Wisconsin on March 2. Illinois won, 91-83. Now the teams are on a neutral court in Minneapolis.

The Illini are explosive and talented, none more than the dynamic Shannon. Illinois is going to get its points. The Illini rank 12th in the country in scoring at 83.9 points a game. The way to beat Illinois is exploit its weak 3-point defense that ranks 259th.

Wisconsin, though, is a below average 3-point shooting team. The Badgers rank 192nd in 3-point accuracy at 33.9 percent. The Illini didn't have nearly the tough time with Nebraska in their semifinal Saturday game as the Badgers did in upsetting Purdue.

I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now.

The Wolf Pack get a scheduling edge, too, with the Mountain West Conference Tournament being in Las Vegas.

Matchup-wise, Nevada has a size advantage in the low post with Nick Davidson and has a trio of excellent defensive guards to hound Colorado State's star point guard Isaiah Stevens.

Colorado State has been out of sync when playing Nevada due to the Wolf Pack slowing things down and playing excellent perimeter defense. The Rams were just 12-of-41 (29 percent) from 3-point range in their two games against Nevada while the Wolf Pack made 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc for 45 percent. This isn't surprising since Nevada is a top-50 3-point shooting team while the Rams ranked second-to-last in the Mountain West in 3-point accuracy.

Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread.

The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the country with a 4-27 record. Their last victory was on Dec. 21. They are an embarrassing 0-19 in the Big West Conference.

San Diego is 20-11 and 14-5 in the Big West, which is the second-best mark in the league. However, the Tritons are ineligible to play in the conference tournament, NCAA Tournament and NIT. That's because they transitioned from Division II to Division I when they joined the Big West in 2020. There is a four-year transition period before the team can be eligible to play in those postseason tournaments. This is the final year the Tritons have to wait.

So look for San Diego to come out strong with this being its final game. The Tritons were upset by Cal-Davis at home in their previous game this past Thursday. They certainly don't want to close their season with another disappointing performance. They should come out focused and they have the perfect patsy to make amends.

The overmatched Mustangs just want their horrendous season to close. They are a terrible defensive team and the sixth-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging a puny 62.9 points a game. San Diego averages nearly 15 more points per game than the Mustangs.

Boise State and San Diego State are two of the better teams in the highly competitive Mountain West Conference. Boise State is 21-9 and San Diego State is 22-8. Both, though, are in bad moods coming off losses.

So the defensive intensity should be up as the teams close out the regular season with this game, with seeding position in next week's conference tournament at stake.

San Diego State gives up the 29th-fewest points per game in the country. The Aztecs have held their last opponents to an average of 55.6 points.

Boise State ranks 50th in the nation defensively and eighth in defensive rebounding. The Broncos play at the second-slowest tempo in the Mountain West. San Diego State is a terrible 3-point shooting team and the Aztecs aren't likely to get many second-chance points, either.

The last six games in the series have averaged only 113.6 combined points. There were 133 points scored in the first meeting in Boise when the Broncos nipped the Aztecs, 67-66.

There were only 120 points scored in the team's first meeting, a 64-56 Boise State win on Jan. 12. Do I think more points will be scored in this rematch? Yes, but not enough of them go to Over the total. 

This is an important Mountain West Conference game with Nevada tied for second place one game behind Boise State and Utah State for the lead. So the intensity should be there. 

Nevada ranks 42nd defensively and 38th in defensive efficiency. The Wolf Pack were hurt by Boise State's star big man, Tyson Degenhart in that first meeting. Degenhart, who averages 17 points a game, scored 20 points against Nevada. But the Wolf Pack have improved their low-post defense since then. 

Boise State ranks 43rd defensively and 31st in defensive efficiency. The Broncos play at the second slowest tempo in the Mountain West. They are strong both in defensive rebounding and 3-point defense. Nevada managed only two offensive rebounds in the first meeting. That wasn't a fluke. Only 10 teams in the country allow fewer second-chance points than Boise State. 

There's a chance the Wolf Pack could be without their best backcourt player, point guard Kenan Blackshear. He missed the Wolf Pack's last game and is questionable here with a calf injury. That injury could slow him - and Nevada's pace - if Blackshear does play.

Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team.

Fairfield leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) with a 12-5 mark. Marist is in fourth place with a 10-6 mark. The Red Foxes have three fewer overall victories than Fairfield.

Marist lost, 69-60, to Saint Peter's as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs in its last game this past Sunday. Fairfield defeated Saint Peter's, 64-62, on the road and whipped them, 76-67, at home.

The Staggs also rolled past Marist, 82-61, as short home favorites back on Jan. 7. Fairfield has the healthier frontcourt and holds a strong backcourt edge on the Red Foxes. The Staggs have the top guard depth in the MAAC. They forced 18 turnovers against Marist in the first game. That wasn't unusual. Marist has a turnover problem and the Staggs' guards are excellent defenders.

Marist has a stingy defense that is aided by its offense's half-court slow, deliberate style. However, Fairfield averages 12 points more per game and ranks 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Caleb Fields, one of four good guards Fairfield has, burned the Red Foxes for 33 points while hitting 10-of-18 3-pointers in the first meeting.

The Staggs are in excellent current form, too, winning six of their last seven games, including going 3-0 SU and ATS in their past three games. The Staggs have won outright five of the last six times they've been underdogs. Marist has a losing ATS record the past nine times it has been favored.

Fairfield has defeated Marist each of the previous five seasons on the road. This includes a 70-61 away win last year.

Butler is home, has revenge and is in circle-the-wagons mode. The Bulldogs have lost four in a row putting them on the NCAA Tournament bubble. This is a huge game for the Bulldogs and I believe they will come through given St. John's recent road conference struggles.

St. John's is off a huge, 80-66, upset of then 15th-ranked Creighton this past Sunday. That was at home, though. The Red Storm are 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in their last six Big East road contests. Their lone victory during this span was against Georgetown, which is 2-15 in the Big East. 

Despite the win against Creighton, the Red Storm have not been doing that well going 4-8 in their last 12 games. 

Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada.

The Wolf Pack are a tough matchup for Colorado State. That was proven in the first game between these teams on Jan. 24. The Wolf Pack won, 77-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. That was the most points the Rams allowed in regulation during their last 19 games. 

Nevada took advantage of its height advantage to make 56.8 percent of its shots inside the paint. 

The Rams are heavily reliant upon point guard Isaiah Stevens. But Stevens had trouble against the Wolf Pack's 38th-ranked defense making only four-of-16 shots from the field. Nevada held Colorado State to just 26.1 percent from 3-point range as the Rams missed 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. This wasn't a fluke as the Wolf Pack have some of the Mountain West Conference best perimeter defenders in Tre Coleman, Daniel Foster and Kenan Blackshear. They are a big reason why the Wolf Pack give up just 66.3 points a game. 

The Wolf Pack have held six of their last seven opponents to 66 or fewer points. Discount an 83-82 loss to New Mexico and Nevada is surrendering an average of only 61.6 points in its last six games.

This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row.

Wake Forest is 14-0 at home, the only ACC team without a home loss. But the 17-9 Demon Deacons aren't as good as the 21-5 Blue Devils, who are 12-3 in the ACC compared to Wake Forest's 9-6 league mark.

I was far more impressed with Duke's 84-55 road victory against Miami this past Wednesday than Wake Forest's, 91-58, home victory against Pittsburgh, which shot just 29 percent from the field vs the Demon Deacons.

Duke handled Wake Forest, 77-69, as seven-point home favorites on Feb. 12. So I find plenty of line value on the Blue Devils as an underdog.

Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday. 

The Trojans were 6 1/2-point favorites in that matchup. Now, a week later, they opened as underdogs to Arkansas State. 

I'm not buying that. It's not just rapid revenge for Troy. The Trojans are the superior team. Troy is 18-9 and 11-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, tied for second one game behind Appalachian State. Arkansas State is 13-4 overall and 8-6 in the Sun Belt. 

Both teams average 79 points. The difference comes on defense. Troy gives up 69.4 points a game. Arkansas State permits 78.4 points per game, which ranks 334th. The Red Wolves also are 300th in defensive field goal percentage. 

Don't expect Troy to have a second straight off-shooting game against Arkansas State. So I'll take the points with the superior team.

Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV.

The Falcons stunned the Rebels, 90-58, as 10 1/2-point road 'dogs on Jan. 23. Air Force is 0-6 SU and ATS since then. Air Force made 14 of 28 3-pointers against the Rebels. 

Not only do the Rebels have revenge, but they also are in a kill mood after blowing an 11-point second-half lead in a 69-66 home loss to arch-rival Nevada this past Saturday. That loss snapped a five-game UNLV win streak. 

The Rebels are 14-10 on the season, 7-5 in the Mountain West Conference. They are a much better team than Air Force and should have huge motivation. Air Force ranks 315th in scoring at 67.9 points per game. The Falcons rank 337th in defensive field goal percentage and 354th in 3-point defense. 

Oh, yes, the Falcons also are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.

There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night.

Nevada rallied from nine points down to nip the Rebels, 69-66, as two-point road 'dogs. It was a very satisfying victory for the Wolf Pack. But it also puts the Wolf Pack in a letdown spot for this matchup against Wyoming.

The Cowboys are a respectable .500 Mountain West Conference team that has a winning overall record and a winning league road mark. They are not an easy opponent for Nevada. The Cowboys proved that back on Jan. 20 when they upset the Wolf Pack, 98-93, as seven-point home 'dogs. Now the line has doubled, which I find way too high.

Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars.

So I'm on the Cyclones.

Yes, Houston has a 19-game home win streak and is ranked first in the country defensively. Iowa State, however, ranks seventh defensively in the nation, averages more points per game than the Cougars and is a better free throw shooting team.

The Cyclones have had the Cougars' number, too, winning seven of the past eight times. This includes a 57-53 home victory against Texas on Jan. 9 when the Cyclones were a much shorter underdog.    

Iowa State's T.J. Otzelberger is one of the top-five coaches in the country, in my view. The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Texas had failed to cover in its past four games before its victory against Texas.

Canisius is nothing great. But Siena is the Washington Generals of college basketball. Canisius is 9-15. Siena is 3-21 in its last 24 games. The Saints very well could be the worst offensive team in the country.

The Golden Griffins average 71.8 points a game. That's nearly 12 points more per game than the Saints.

Siena is averaging 60.1 points. That miniscule average shrinks even more to 54.2 points in its last eight games.

The Saints rank 360th in scoring, 354th in free throw accuracy, 348th in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point percent.

Siena's below-average defense can't make up for its lack of offense. The Saints rank 278th defensively allowing 75.2 points a game.
Canisius defeated Siena, 67-63, on Jan. 12. The Saints have gotten worse since then losing eight of their last nine games.

There hadn't been this much excitement about Indiana State since Larry Bird played for the Sycamores. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Sycamores they are coming off a stunning home upset loss to 12-14 Illinois State this past Tuesday.

Indiana State coach Josh Schertz ripped his team following that defeat calling them soft and lacking toughness.

I'm expecting the Sycamores to be fired-up and to bury Southern Illinois even if Jayson Kent, their leading rebounder, can't play.

Southern Illinois was no match for Indiana State when the teams met earlier this season on Nov. 28. The Sycamores buried the Salukis, 77-48. Southern Illinois ranks 239th in defensive field goal percentage. The Salukis have allowed their past three opponents to shoot at least 50 percent from the field. Indiana State is the third-best shooting team in the country and ranks eighth in points per game at 84.9.

Despite their Top 25 ranking, Indiana State is not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Sycamores lead Drake by just one game in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark.

The teams met two games ago on Feb. 3. Princeton beat the Bears, 70-60, covering as seven-point road favorites. The Tigers accomplished that despite a bad shooting game. They shot 44 percent from the floor and 27 percent from 3-point range. The Tigers' season average is 46.3 shooting from the field and 36.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Brown then lost as a 4 1/2-point home favorite to Columbia, 83-69, in its last game. I don't see Brown staying within this number on the road to Princeton. The Bears lost by double-digits to the Tigers at home when Princeton wasn't shooting well.

Princeton is 8-0 at home. The Tigers permit only 64.7 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the nation. The Tigers also are the second-best free throw shooting team in the country making 79.9 percent.

Brown is below par on both sides of the ball. The Bears average just 70 points and could be the worst free throw shooting team in the land making only 64.7 percent.

Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup.

The Scarlet Knights have won their last three games posting upset victories against Wisconsin at home and road wins against Michigan and Maryland. It's not a coincidence that these three victories have all come since Iowa State transfer Jeremiah Williams became eligible and played in his first three games for Rutgers. Williams sparked the Scarlet Knights to their, 78-56, upset of 11th-ranked Wisconsin this past Saturday by scoring 18 points, dishing off seven assists and grabbing five rebounds.

Williams provides offense and all-around play to the Scarlet Knights, who give up the 28th-fewest points in the nation and rank 13th in defensive field goal percentage.

Northwestern is much better at home than on the road. The Wildcats are 1-5 in their Big Ten away contests.

You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers.

Dayton is ranked 16th, but coming off an ugly, 49-47, road loss to VCU this past Friday. The Flyers held VCU scoreless during the final 5:57, but still couldn't win because of their cold shooting. This was highly unusual since the Flyers rank seventh in 3-point shooting percentage.

That loss has put Dayton in a bounce back spot, while Duquesne is fat-and-happy after upsetting St. Bonaventure this past Saturday.

The Flyers' DaRon Holmes II leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring at 19.4 points per game. Holmes, though, is off a terrible performance against VCU. I expect the Flyers and Holmes to bounce back strong against Duquesne, which is a well below average shooting team. Dayton gives up the seventh-fewest points in the country at 64.3.

Prior to losing to VCU, the Flyers had gone 16-1 with one of those victories during this span coming against Duquesne, 72-62, on the road on Jan. 12.

Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers.

It's their revenge game of the year. VCU defeated Dayton, 68-56, in the Atlantic 10 title game last season.

VCU is good again this season at 15-8, 7-3 in conference. But 19-3 Dayton is better. The Flyers are a better offensive team than they were when they lost to VCU last season. The Flyers average three points more per game than the Rams and rank fifth in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Dayton's DaRon Holmes II leads the A-10 in scoring at 19.7 points per game.

The oddsmaker agrees that Dayton is the superior team, opening the Flyers a road favorite. I'm going to back Dayton on the money line with the line as short as it is.

I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years.

Even giving up 78 points in that game, the Cougars still rank first in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 54 and in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Big 12 Conference. The Cowboys only average 71.1 points, which ranks 259th. They also rank 314th in free throw percentage.

The Cowboys are actually a little fat and happy, though, after upsetting Kansas State at home this past Saturday. That was just their second win in their past nine games.

Texas has a strong record as a big favorite covering 62 percent of the past 104 times when they've been chalk of more than 10 points.

This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus.

Kentucky defeated Tennessee in both meetings last season. Kentucky won those games by a combined 19 points. The Wildcats close their regular season at Tennessee. So it is paramount they beat the Volunteers in Lexington, Ky.

Both teams got caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup in their last game. Kentucky blew a four-point home lead with 20 seconds and lost in overtime to Florida this past Wednesday. That was just the Wildcats' second home loss in 12 home contests. Tennessee looked far worse, though. The Volunteers lost, 63-59, to South Carolina as a 14-point home favorite this past Tuesday. Tennessee is going to have to play far, far better than that to stay competitive against the Wildcats.

The Wildcats own the deeper bench and have a highly-underrated shooting guard in Antonio Reeves. Not only is he an elite defensive player, but he's scored 19 or more points in eight of the last 10 games.

Albany is a high-scoring, up-tempo team with a weak defense. Vermont is just the opposite. The Catamounts rank 23rd in the nation defensively. They've held their last four foes to an average of 58.5 points.

Based on history, situation and statistical breakdowns, I strongly look for Vermont to control tempo, slow down Albany and have this total go Under.

Only once during the past seven meetings between these America East Conference rivals has Albany reached 68 points. The Great Danes have been held to an average of fewer than 64 points during this span.

I don't look for that to change. Albany is playing its third straight road game. Vermont has the best defense in the conference. The Catamounts also play at one of the slowest paces in the country ranking 346th. They rarely foul or turn the ball over. They should control the tempo being home and with Albany once again on the road.

Vermont is the best team right now in the league. The Catamounts aren't a top-50 caliber team, but they do rank 103rd in net rankings. Albany is averaging 64.6 points in its three games against top-104 teams Seton Hall, UMass and Drexel.

It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game. 

The Rams are home now where they are 10-1, including 3-0 in Mountain West Conference games and with a victory against 19th-ranked New Mexico. San Diego State has been idle for a week. The Aztecs are 0-5-1 ATS in true road games and have been known to struggle when playing in high altitude venues, which Moby Arena is. 

The Aztecs are 16-4, but have feasted on weak competition going 14-0 vs Quad 2 or lower opponents and 2-4 against Quad 1 foes. 
Colorado State is the seventh-best shooting team in the country. San Diego State is the second-worst shooting team in the Mountain West ahead of only Boise State. The Aztecs are the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference. 

San Diego State could be rusty, too, having been idle for a week. The Aztecs have a bigger game up next when they host 17th-ranked and Mountain West leader Utah State.

It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31.

But it's more than that. Washington State has come together a lot more since that defeat going 5-2 in their last seven games. The Cougars are strong at home and Colorado is coming off a road win against Washington this past Wednesday. I don't see the Buffaloes knocking off both Washington and Washington State on the road. Prior to defeating Washington, Colorado had played four true road games. The Buffaloes lost and failed to cover in each of those contests.

Washington State is 9-2 at home. The Cougars won and covered against Utah and Arizona during their last two home games.

The Cougars are a better defensive team than Colorado and can take advantage of the Buffaloes' weak 3-point defense.

Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games.

The Bobcats lost on the road this past Tuesday to Akron, 67-58, as an 8-point 'dog. The Bobcats remain a fade on the road until they prove they can cover a true away game.

Kent State has the better overall record, although both teams are 3-4 in the MAC. The Golden Flashes rank 54th in 3-point accuracy. Ohio is 199th in 3-point defense. Kent State also makes 76 percent of its free throws compared to Ohio, which ranks 221st in free throw percentage at 70.4 percent.

Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU.

BYU has one of the best home-courts in the country. The Cougars slaughtered Iowa State, 87-72, at home a week ago. BYU lost at Texas Tech in its previous game this past Saturday after blowing a 16-point halftime lead. But at home, BYU is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, outscoring foes by an average of nearly 30 points a game.

The Cougars are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 85.3 points. That's 11 points more per game than Houston averages. The Cougars also could be without J'Wan Roberts, a key defender and their leading rebounder.

Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points.

This is only Purdue's third true road game. The Boilermakers lost to Nebraska on the road, 88-72, three games ago. Iowa defeated Nebraska, 94-76, at home eight days ago.

Purdue is playing consecutive true road games for the first time this season. The Boilermakers are the 13th-highest scoring team in the nation. Iowa ranks fifth in scoring averaging two more points per game than Purdue at 87.1.

Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's.

Marist is 8-6. The Red Foxes have a strong 10-4 ATS record. Mount St. Mary's is 6-10 and has a losing ATS mark.

The Red Foxes are a strong defensive team, holding foes to 62.6 points a game. That ranks 10th-best in the country. Mount St. Mary's is below average in scoring, rebounding, 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. The Mountaineers also surrender nearly 10 more points per game than Marist.

The Mountaineers are 2-4 in their last six games, including losing and failing to cover in their last two. The Red Foxes halted a four-game losing skid with a confidence-building, 83-60, victory against Rider.

If you discount an 82-61 loss to Fairfield, Marist is giving up an average of only 58.3 points in its last nine games. I don't see Mount St. Mary's scoring too many points. So receiving multiple points looms large.

Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas.

The Trojans are on a six-game winning and covering streak. They lead the Sun Belt Conference with a 5-0 mark. South Alabama is 2-3 in the Sun Belt. 

Troy averages 81.4 points a game. That's nearly seven points more per game than South Alabama. The Trojans also are the superior rebounding team and 3-point shooting team. Troy ranks 119th in 3-point accuracy. The Jaguars, by contrast, rank 298th in 3-point accuracy. Troy ranks 52nd in the nation in rebounding while the Jaguars are 252nd. 

Not only is Troy superior to South Alabama on paper, but also in the respected kenpom.com ratings where the Trojans are ranked 141st compared to the Jaguars being 205th. 

So I don't find it too much to ask of the Trojans to just win this game. 

The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them.

Lafayette is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Leopards average only 60.2 points per game on 39.3 percent shooting from the floor and 27.7 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross averages five more points per game than Lafayette.

The Crusaders have the best player on the court in Joe Octave. He averages 15 points and 6.6 rebounds. The Crusaders snapped a three-game losing streak with a 69-66 overtime road win against Lehigh as a 10-point 'dog. So the Crusaders should bring in confidence for this key league game.

The Leopards are 2-8 in their 10 road/neutral site games.

I make Holy Cross the favorite in this matchup. So getting these many points is a bonus.

Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup.

Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its Big Ten games. The Nittany Lions upset Michigan at a neutral site three games ago. Since then, however, the Nittany Lions have lost to second-ranked Purdue and Northwestern. So this becomes a circle-the-wagons home game for Penn State, which upset Ohio State at home and nearly upset Maryland on the road losing in overtime.

This is just the Badgers' fifth true road game. They are 2-2 in those away contests with their defeats coming to Providence by 13 and to Arizona by 25.

The teams played two close games last season with Wisconsin edging Penn State, 63-60 and 79-74.

I'm selling high on the Gophers right now. 

Picked to finish last in the Big Ten Conference by the media, Minnesota is a surprising 12-3 and tied for second in the Big Ten with a 3-1 league mark. The Gophers are off narrow victories against Michigan and Maryland. They've won seven in a row.

But I see reality closing in on Minnesota. The Gophers' next four games are this one at Indiana, then Iowa followed by a road game at Michigan State and then Wisconsin. 

Minnesota only has played two true road games. Indiana is 8-1 at home this season.

The Hooisers should be highly motivated for this matchup after losing, 66-57, on the road to Rutgers this past Tuesday. Indiana was an embarrassing 4-of-15 from the foul line in that loss. 

The 11-5 Hooisers are not a good free throw shooting team, but they do connect on 48.4 percent of their field goal attempts. That rates 35th in the country.

BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams.

And the Cougars haven't even been 100 percent - until now. Expected to play is defensive ace Fousseyni Traore, who is the Cougars' sixth-leading scorer. He had missed December because of a hamstring injury.

The 12th-ranked Cougars are ready to make their Big 12 debut against Cincinnati, another newcomer to the esteemed Big 12 Conference.

BYU is a legitimate 12-1. All of its victories have been by at least nine points. The Cougars average 90.4 points and hold their foes to an average of 61.5 points.

Cincinnati is 11-2, but that record is bogus given the soft schedule the Bearcats have played. This is just the Bearcats' third true road game of the season.

Cincinnati failed to cover as 12 1/2-point road favorites against Howard needing overtime to win, 86-81. The Bearcats lost on the road to Xavier, 84-79, as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati also has played one neutral site game. That was against Dayton. The Bearcats were 5 1/2-point favorites and lost, 82-68.

Given their road woes and soft schedule, I don't see the Bearcats staying within double-digits of the powerful Cougars.

Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23.

But before those marquee matchups, the Owls have this game against Florida International. I don't see the Owls getting too motivated for the 3-7 Panthers.

I have this game power-rated much lower than this inflated point spread. Florida International is playing better, winning two of its last three games. The Panthers took the Owls to overtime when they previously met last Jan. 11.

The Panthers force the second-most turnovers in the nation and are second in steals led by guard Arturo Dean, who leads the country in steals per game at 4.5.

Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.

The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.

Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.

I find this total to be too high, an overreaction to each team's last game.

Iowa rolled past North Florida, 103-78, in its previous game this past Wednesday. That was a quick-paced game with North Florida throwing up 31 3-point shots. Purdue is not like that.

The Boilermakers lost, 92-88, as 5 1/2-point road favorites to Northwestern in their last game, which was three days ago. That game went into overtime. The score was 76-76 after regulation.

Purdue has a problem with turnovers, committing 15 or more in three of its last four games. The Boilermakers, though, usually are stout defensively. They rank 34th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 15th in 3-point defense.

This also is a Big Ten matchup where defense is stressed.

I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season.

Saint Mary's can do that to an opponent. Davidson is much better than that.

Charlotte is 3-0 at home, but the 49ers have played easy competition in those games: Maine, Utah Valley and Georgia State.

This is going to be a low-scoring game where every basket counts. Charlotte nipped Davidson by two points in overtime last year. So the Wildcats also have revenge motivation.

Davidson doesn't rely on one scorer. The Wildcats have a balanced attack. They play extremely slow. Charlotte plays at even a slower tempo, ranking 352nd out of 362 Division I teams in pace.

Points are going to be at a premium. So glad to get even this many.

I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lobos have a height advantage and a fast-paced, prolific offense that can exploit the Owls' defensive holes.

New Mexico ranks 58th in the latest KenPom rankings, while Rice is rated 200th.

Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins.

The Sooners did just that in their first two games beating Central Michigan by 30 points and Mississippi Valley State by 39 points, covering both games. This matchup sets up as another blowout for Oklahoma.

The Sooners' strength is 3-point shooting. Texas State's major weakness is 3-point defense and making 3-pointers. The Bobcats finished 310th in 3-point field goal percentage last season and 314th in defending against 3-pointers.

This also is the Bobcats' third consecutive road contest. Oklahoma has been home all season.

I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch.

The Commodores have a deep and athletic backcourt headed by returning guards, Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence.

Presbyterian is off a 5-27 season in which it lost its last 18 games. The Blue Hose was picked to finish last in the Big South during the league's preseason poll. Their two top scorers transferred and they are breaking in eight new players. The Blue Hose lack the athleticism to slow down Vanderbilt's guards.

There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number.

Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively.

However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that.

Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams.

Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here.

There's only one way to play the total in this game - and it's not to the Over.

San Diego State is an Under machine. The Aztecs have gone Under in their last 12 games and 14 of their past 15! Florida Atlantic is a big-scoring team reliant on 3-point accuracy. But the Owls haven't faced a 3-point defense as good as San Diego State. The Aztecs have held foes to below 28 percent shooting from 3-point range.

Florida Atlantic ranks in the top 40 in defensive field goal percentage. The Owls have given up an average of fewer than 65 points during their seven post-season games, five of which went Under. San Diego State doesn't have a player who averages even 11 points a game in the NCAA Tournament.

The game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston. That's a football stadium where the Texans play. It's a huge structure with an unusual shooting backdrop for college basketball teams. It's a huge plus for the Under.

Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road.

The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor.

UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers.

Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games.

I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament.

Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense.

Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves.

Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament.

It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside.

Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points.

I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me.

Florida Atlantic is on house money having never advanced this far. The Owls have a strong backcourt. But I'm going with Kansas State coming out of the Big 12 and having two star players, point guard Markquis Nowell and Keyonate Johnson. There might not have been a tougher conference in the country than the Big 12.

Nowell and Johnson give Kansas State the talent edge.

Nowell, averaging 17.2 points, 8.1 assists and 2.5 steals, has been the star of the tournament. He sparked the Wildcats past Michigan State and Kentucky.

Kansas State has covered 77 percent during their past 22 games against above .500 opponents going 17-5.

Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th.

Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game.

Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns.

The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Both team's defenses were solid during the regular season. But they've each stepped up during the postseason. Now, with ample time to prepare, expect both defenses to be at their finest.

Michigan State has a top-100 defense. The Spartans rank 33rd in 3-point defense. They've held their past three opponents to an average of 63.3 points. This includes holding Marquette to 21 points under its season average. Coaching guru Tom Izzo has plenty of time to work on defensive schemes designed to bother this specific opponent. Look for Michigan State to play at a slow tempo.

Kansas State has been a high level defensive team since last month. The Wildcats are giving up an average of 67 points during their last two games. They just held Kentucky six points under its season average.

Note the Madison Square Garden venue, too. This is a huge arena making it tough for teams unfamiliar with this arena to shoot a high percentage.

Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU.

Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent.

I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy.

TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory.

Princeton successfully outrebounded and slowed down Arizona, 59-55, in their first-round NCAA Tournament victory. The Tigers certainly can do the same to Missouri.

The Tigers held Arizona to 28 points below its season average. Missouri held Utah State to 14 points below the Aggies' season average in a 76-65 first-round tournament win on Thursday. 

No way Princeton gets into a track meet with Missouri so I find this total too high especially because Princeton also is very strong on the defensive glass, ranking in the top 10 in defensive rebounding. 

The Under has cashed six of the last seven times Princeton has played on a neutral court. 

Missouri is underrated defensively in this matchup with its defensive statistics skewed playing in the SEC. Now the Tigers are facing an Ivy League opponent. 

Missouri held Utah State to 4-of-24 shooting from 3-point range. Princeton missed 21 of 25 3-point shots against Arizona. Princeton is a below average 3-point shooting team so the Tigers should not be able to hurt Missouri from beyond the arc. 

This is my Game of the Week.

Drake is a trendy pick to upset Miami in this NCAA Tournament matchup. But I don't see the Bulldogs pulling the upset even if the Hurricanes don't have Norchad Omier, their second-leading rebounder. He's questionable after suffering a knee injury against Duke last Friday.

Miami has many other scorers, including star guard and ACC Player of the Year, Isaiah Wong.

I respect Drake and the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake demolishing Bradley in the MVC Tournament title game, though, is less impressive after the Braves were buried by Big Ten disappointment Wisconsin in the NIT.

Miami is the superior team having beaten ranked opponents Virginia, Clemson and Pittsburgh along with scoring non-conference wins against Providence, Central Florida and Rutgers. Drake doesn't have that kind of resume.

I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. 
Texas has the outstanding guard play, experience, depth and defense to make a serious run in the tournament. 

Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. 

The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. 

Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State.

The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.

Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival.

The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points.

Two slow tempo teams. Two strong defensive clubs. Plus injuries. Factor all of that in and you have the basis for a strong Under play here.

Villanova is one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. The Wildcats are facing a Liberty defense that ranks eighth in the country surrendering only 60.2 points a game. Both teams are strong on the defensive glass.

The Wildcats have four players who score in double figures. Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore are two of them - and both could be out due to soreness and in Whitmore's case an eye injury.

I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. 

Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points.

Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game.

The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points.

Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation.

A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points.

I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. 

Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. 

Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. 
Grand Canyon was three games worse than Sam Houston State during the Western Athletic Conference regular season. The Lopes are 22-11 on the season. 

Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.  

Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road.

I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas.

Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games.

San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team.

Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside.

This isn't the St. Peter's team of last season. The Peacocks haven't been awful as some might have thought they'd be in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but they are far from good after losing so much from last year. 

I don't see the Peacocks getting past Fairfield in this MAAC Tournament. 

St. Peter's has the worst offense in the conference. Nationally, the Peacocks rank 352nd in scoring, 361th in field goal percentage and 357th in 3-point percentage. 

Fairfield isn't much better offensively, but the Staggs play tough defense and just scored 92 points against Quinnipiac. St. Peter's is averaging 58.5 points in regulation during its last six years. 

The Stags defeated St. Peter's in both regular season meetings, winning 56-52 on the road on Jan. 15 and 67-55 at home on Dec. 3. 

The 12-17 Peacocks nipped Siena, 73-72, in overtime during their last game. St. Peter's, however, is 0-11 ATS after covering in their previous game. 

Fairfield is 19-7 ATS the past 26 times against below .500 foes.

Idaho State is 11-20. I'm surprised the Bengals even have that many wins because they are terrible.

Montana has underachieved in going 16-13, 10-7 in the Big Sky. But the Grizzlies have a huge talent edge here along with momentum. The fourth-seeded Grizzlies are very live to capture the Big Sky Conference Tournament.

Montana is 7-1 in its last eight games. Idaho State is 2-5 in its last seven games. Josh Bannan and Aanen Moody give the Grizzlies the two best players on the court.

The Grizzlies were 2-0 against Idaho State during the regular season winning 84-55 at home and 69-61 on the road.

Back when UNLV was playing much better, the Rebels defeated Nevada, 68-62, at home on Jan. 28. Since then UNLV only has managed to beat three of the four worst teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels were a no-show in their last game, a 91-66 home loss to Utah State this past Wednesday.

If it wasn't for a last-second tip-in in a 54-53 home win against Air Force, the Rebels would be 0-5 in their last five games.

So I don't see the Rebels staying with revenge-minded Nevada.

The 22-8 Wolf Pack need this game to have a good chance of landing an NCAA Tournament berth. Nevada is a perfect 15-0 at home. The Wolf Pack will have a sellout crowd at home on senior night playing their arch-rival. They are the superior team catching a downtrodden UNLV team. Expect a double-digit Wolf Pack victory.

I'm very surprised Kansas City opened as a 'dog to Nebraska Omaha in this Summit League Tournament matchup.

UMKC is 11-20. Nebraska Omaha is 8-22. The Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 11 games. UMKC beat them in both meetings during the regular season, 64-61, on Jan. 26 and 75-59 on the road Dec. 31.

The Kangaroos give up nearly nine points fewer per game than Nebraska Omaha. They also are a much stronger rebounding team than the Mavericks.

UMKC has the best player on the court, too, in Rayquawndis Mitchell.

These two teams met twice during the regulation season. There were 127 and 122 points scored during those two games.

Now Illinois-Chicago and Missouri State are meeting again with the stakes much higher - the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. So the defensive intensity is going to be even greater.

The game is being played at a neutral site, Enterprise Arena in St. Louis. This venue is set up for hockey not basketball. Historically there have been a lot of Unders because of the tough shooting background.

Illinois Chicago ranks 289th in scoring, 315th in field goal percentage and 336th in free throw percentage. Missouri State has the 32nd best defense in the country holding foes to 63.7 points a game.

The Bears, though, average only 65.8 points per game and are even worse from the foul line than Illinois-Chicago. No Missouri Valley team plays at a slower tempo either than Missouri State.

This line is out of whack. Both teams are 20-9 and battling for third place in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State State was a three-point home favorite against Akron on Jan. 6 and won, 70-63.

Now look at the line.

This should be a very close game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals win again. They are in better current form although they got a jolt in their last game losing as road chalk to Eastern Michigan this past Saturday. Before that defeat, though, Ball State had won seven of its past eight games.

The Cardinals should be highly-focused following that wake-up call. They are 16-5 ATS (76 percent) the past 21 times following a loss. Ball State also has covered four of the last five times against opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

Akron, by contrast, is 1-7 ATS the past eight times when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Zips' 14-1 home record looks impressive, but they have a losing ATS mark on the season and are 3-3 during their last six games.

The teams have similar statistics. Ball State, however, ranks 43rd nationally in 3-point percentage. That's nearly 100 teams better than Akron in that key category.

Even given home-court advantage, I don't think Stanford should even be favored against Washington let alone laying mid-sized points like this.

So I'm on the Huskies. Washington is 16-13 and 8-10 in the Pac-12. Stanford is 11-17 and 5-12 in the Pac 12.

Washington is playing much better than the Cardinal, too. The Huskies have won three in a row. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Stanford has lost five of its last six games, including the past three.

The teams met on Jan. 12 in Seattle and the Huskies easily won, 86-69. The Cardinal could connect on just nine of 29 3-point attempts. It wasn't a fluke. The Huskies rate seventh in the country in 3-point defense while Stanford is 306th in 3-point defense.

I find this line to be way off. Utah Valley is the best team in the Western Athletic Conference at 12-3. Abilene Christian, by contrast, is 7-9 in league.

The Wolverines shouldn't lack motivation after getting upset on the road by Tarleton State in their last game. Utah Valley had won five in a row until that defeat. The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 away games.

The 21-7 Wolverines are a better rebounding team than Abilene Christian and much better in defensive field goal percentage. Utah Valley ranks fifth in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Abilene Christian ranks 353rd.

The Wildcats are 4-8 in their last 12 games.

It's not too much to ask of Utah Valley just to win the game straight-up so I'm backing the Wolverines on the money line.

This is the most points Iowa State has gotten all season. T.J. Otzelberger could be the best coach in the country. So I'm going to accept this many points.

Texas is a top-25 offense. Iowa State is a top 15-defense. I trust Otzelberger and the Cyclones' defense to keep this close.

Texas was fortunate to get past Oklahoma, 85-83 in overtime, this past Saturday as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-21 (25 percent) ATS the last 28 times following a victory.

Iowa State handled the Longhorns at home. The Cyclones beat them, 78-67, on Jan. 17. They can hang here.

There is one team in the Big Ten Conference who is an autofade - Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-13 in the league. They haven't been competitively on the road lately.

The Gophers lost by 35 points to Rutgers and by 20 points to Northwestern in their last two away games. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road contests. 

I see this as a kill spot for the host Illini. Minnesota has lost nine in a row. It's also a difficult situational spot for the Gophers as because of previous postponements this will be just their third game in 16 days. 

Boise State is very tough at home. UNLV is a sliding team with a bad recent history against the Broncos.

So I find this a simple choice: Lay the points with Boise State.

The 20-6 Broncos have won their last 11 home games with all but one of those victories coming by nine or more points. They are 10-3 in the Mountain West Conference.

UNLV is 16-10 with a 5-9 Mountain West record. The Rebels have lost three of their past four games, including home losses to San Jose State and Fresno State as mid-sized favorites. They are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games.

Boise State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Broncos have held opponents to fewer than 60 points a game when playing at home, while averaging more than 74 points shooting 49 percent from the floor and 77 percent from the foul line.

The Broncos have dominated the Rebels winning the past six meetings. This includes an 84-66 road win on Jan. 11.

Maybe it's because Southeast Missouri State has lost three in a row. But I find this line to be well short of my power rankings for these two teams.

The Redhawks are at least a dozen points better than Eastern Illinois given home-court advantage. SE Missouri State has won the last five in the series, including defeating the Panthers, 79-68, on the road Jan. 28.

SE Missouri State is in a five-way tie for second place in the Ohio Valley Conference at 8-6. Eastern Illinois is 9-18 overall and 5-9 in the OVC.

The Redhawks lead the conference in scoring, field goal percentage and have the best turnover margin. They have the best player on the court in Phillip Russell, who leads the Ohio Valley Conference in scoring at 19 points per game while also dishing off 5.2 assists per game.

I don't see Eastern Illinois staying with SE Missouri State. The Panthers average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank last in the OVC in free throw percentage, rebounding margin and 3-pointers made.

Hawaii has the better record. Hawaii is the better team. The key question is can the Rainbow Warriors cover this number?

I say they can. Home-court is huge here. Hawaii is 15-3 at home. Cal State-Fullerton is 3-10 on the road. The Rainbow Warriors have won their home games by an average of nearly eight points per game. This has been a home team series with the host covering five of the past six times.

Cal-State Fullerton doesn't have enough scoring to stay within this number. Hawaii ranks 19th in the country defensively allowing 62 points a game. The Titans average fewer than 69 points per game.

The Rainbow Warriors also have revenge motivation. The Titans beat them, 79-72 in overtime, when they hosted them on Jan. 7. Hawaii plays much better at home.

Nevada is extremely tough at home. I know first hand having covered games at Lawlor Events Center on the Reno campus during my sportswriting days. I don't see Fresno State staying within double-digits on the road against the Wolf Pack.

The Wolf Pack average nearly 79 points at home, outscoring  opponents by an average of 14 points. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Lawlor. 

Fresno State doesn't have the scoring to keep up. The Bulldogs average just 62 points a game, which ranks 353rd in the country. They are terrible at making 3-pointers and bad at defending against 3-pointers. 

The Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have failed to cover in nine of their past 13 away contests. I'm not fooled by Fresno State's two game win streak, upsetting UNLV and defeating San Jose State. During their previous three games before those wins, the Bulldogs lost to Wyoming on the road, fell to Utah State at home and lost to Boise State on the road. They averaged just 56 points during those three matchups. 

Nevada has won and covered three in a row. In their last four home games, the Wolf Pack beat Utah State by 15 points, defeated New Mexico by three in overtime, knocked off San Diego State by nine and rolled past Air Force by 20 despite being in a letdown spot. Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State are far superior to Fresno State. 

The Wolf Pack are 20-8 ATS the past 28 times at home when going against a foe with a losing road record. 

No surprise that Memphis ranks 25th in scoring averaging 80.2 points. The Tigers have Kendric Davis, play fast and feature a deep bench. They are averaging 86 points in regulation during their past three games.

It's South Florida who has caught the oddsmaker off guard with its up-tempo style. The Bulls don't play slow anymore. It's not a fluke that the Over has cashed in 17 of their last 21 games. The Over also has cashed in nine of South Florida's past 12 home games.

There is a blueprint for this matchup. It came on Dec. 29 in Memphis when the Tigers hosted South Florida. There were 179 points scored in Memphis' 93-86 victory. Neither team could stop the other especially on the defensive glass.

The Bulls aren't going to back down from Memphis especially in revenge mode and playing at home. The Tigers should be pumped for a big scoring performance, too, after having their five-game win streak snapped by underdog Tulane at home this past Saturday in an overtime loss.

Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday.

Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games.

This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats.

You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996.

The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa.

Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent.

San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season.

Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday.

The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many.

Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points.

The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games.

I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton.

William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record.

The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11.

William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense.

The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.

Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC.

Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago.

Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes.

Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents.

Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts.

The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country.

South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road.

Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games.

I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference.

Slow tempo. Bad offenses. That adds up to an Under in this matchup despite the low total the oddsmaker has set.

Cal State-Fullerton ranks third in the Big West Conference in defensive efficiency. The Titans just held Cal-Irvine to 15 points under its season average in a 62-61 win two days ago. Cal Poly is not Cal-Irvine. The Mustangs average 61.9 points, which is 354th in the country. The Under is 46-21 in their last 67 games, including 6-1 during their past seven home games.

Fullerton has gone Under in 11 of its last 16 games. The Titans are 306th in shooting percentage. Cal Poly is a very strong defensive rebounding team and holds opponents to fewer than 66 points a game.

Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range.

Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line.

Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent.

This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times.

Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group.

Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS.

Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games.

The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark.

SIU-Edwardsville is a terrible 3-point shooting team, but a much improved defensive team. The Cougars rank 82nd in defensive field goal percentage. 

Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots.

The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row.

Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team.

This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country.

Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup.

Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes.

I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home.

Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points.

The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game.

Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings.

T.J. Otzenberger turned Iowa State into one of the best defensive teams in the country last season with the Cyclones giving up 63 points a game and finishing in the top-five in overall adjusted defense, according to KenPom ratings. 

Guess what? The Cyclones are showing definite signs of being even better defensively this season.

Iowa State has held its first three opponents to an average of 45 points a game, best in the nation. 

The combination of Villanova's slow pace, Iowa State's great defense and this game being played in neutral site Portland, Ore., should mean another Under.

The Wildcats are trying to rebuild their offense having lost key playmakers Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels. Villanova is playing at a slow, deliberate pace. The Wildcats don't have to worry too much about Iowa State heating up from 3-point range. The Cyclones rank 339th in 3-point shooting. 

Meeting on a neutral court is another plus for the Under. Iowa State has gone Under in its last five neutral site games. Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last 10 neutral site matchups. 

Kudos for Louisiana Lafayette getting off to a 4-0 start. The Ragin' Cajuns, though, have played an easy schedule and all of their games have been either home, or on a neutral court.

I don't see the Ragin' Cajuns pulling a road upset against SMU. The Mustangs have won 40 of 46 games at Moody Coliseum during the past four seasons. They are 20-2 (91 percent) in home non-conference games during this stretch.

SMU is getting scoring from Zhuric Phelps and rebounding from Efe Odigie, who leads the AAC in rebounding.

The oddsmaker has yet to effectively price SMU. They've underestimated the Mustangs in this spot while overrating Lafayette.

Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated.

Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. 

The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. 

The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. 

Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas.

No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed.

Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter.

North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke.

Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise.

Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last nine neutral site games. Look for that trend to continue with this game set for the spacious Louisiana Superdome. 

The Wildcats like to play slow. That strategy certainly isn't going to change facing Kansas, a top-30 scoring team, and with the Wildcats minus their second-leading scorer, Justin Moore. He suffered an Achilles tear in the Wildcats' 50-44 victory against Houston in Villanova's last game on March 26. 

Kansas has held seven of its last eight foes to 65 or fewer points. The Under has cashed in seven of the Jayhawks' last 10 games.