At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers (on the moneyline), to win the game, straight-up, over the Kansas City Chiefs.  This is a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl won by the Chiefs, 31-20, as a 1.5-point favorite.  Since then, the two teams have met once.  And that was last season, in San Francisco, in RB Christian McCaffrey's first game as a 49er following the trade with the Carolina Panthers.  The Chiefs were favored by 1 point, and won, 44-23.  Kansas City is, without a doubt, playing its best football of the season.  It won impressively at Buffalo and Baltimore to reach this game.  And it has been well-chronicled how well the Chiefs have performed in the underdog role (17-4-1 ATS, including 15-1-1 ATS away from home).  But the 49ers have also excelled in the role of small favorite.  San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 4 points.  And it has covered the spread in those games by an average of 16.25 ppg.  Notably, six of those seven games involved opponents that qualified for the playoffs.  The 49ers have also been terrific against teams off upset wins (8-1-1 ATS) and against opponents off back-to-back wins (59-39-3 ATS).  And, while it's true that the Niners failed to cover the spread in their three previous games, the Chiefs are 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off 3 ATS losses!  Even better:  NFL Playoff teams that weren't getting 3+ points, have gone 0-9 ATS if they covered their previous game by 10+ points, and their opponent was on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  The 49ers will no doubt be prepared for Steve Spagnuolo's blitz packages.  And Brock Purdy led the NFL, statistically, this season when facing a blitz.  He ranked #1 with 9.9 yards per attempt, and also had the best QB rating (127.9).  I will take the 49ers to win the game, straight-up, on the moneyline.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Detroit.  This is the 49ers' 3rd straight game at home, and they failed to cover the point spread in the first two (with a 21-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, and a narrow 3-point win last week vs. the Green Bay Packers).  I think the 3rd time will be the charm, as NFL home favorites have covered 65.9% since 1980 off back to back ATS losses at home.  Even better for San Francisco:  its defense ranked among the top 3 in points allowed (17.5) in the regular season, while Detroit's defense ranked in the bottom 10 (23.2).  Detroit was especially poor against the pass, as its defense ranked next-to-last in passing yards per attempt (7.8).  In contrast, the 49ers ranked #5, and gave up just 6.4 yards per pass attempt.  In NFL Conference Championship games, road teams that give up more than 19.3 ppg have covered the spread just 33% of the time.  And, finally, Detroit is a dreadful 14-32-1 ATS on the road if it owned a win percentage of .700 (or better), and it won its previous game, including 0-10 ATS its last 10, if it was an underdog of +5 or more points.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills OVER the total.  Last week, the Chiefs held the high-octane Miami Dolphins' offense -- which was averaging 29 ppg -- to just 7 points.  And that game went under the total of 43.5.  But NFL teams that hold a Playoff opponent to 20+ points less than their scoring average (and went Under the total in that win), have proceeded to go 12-0 OVER the total in their next game.  Moreover, after its 31-17 win against the Steelers, Buffalo's home playoff games have now gone 11-1 Over when the line was 48 or less points.  Take the Chiefs and Bills Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Bucs to go OVER the total.  This game will be played at Ford Field, which is an enclosed stadium.  And enclosed stadia tend to be higher scoring as they're not exposed to the (sometimes) inclement weather, and have gone Over the total 59.5 percent since 1980.  That's one reason I favor a high-scoring game.  Another is that Detroit has gone 18-2 Over at home if it wasn't off a game which went Over the total (including 12-0 Over if the O/U line was 47+ points).  Take the Lions and Bucs Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Tampa Bay.  We played on Detroit last week as a 3-point home favorite and unfortunately lost, as Detroit won that game, 24-23.  We'll come right back with Dan Campbell's men in this Divisional round game.  The Lions are a super 18-5 ATS under Campbell if their opponent wasn't off a straight-up loss.  Additionally, Tampa Bay has held its last two opponents (Eagles, Panthers) to 9 combined points.  And NFL teams have covered just 31% in the Playoffs after not giving up 10+ points in either of their two previous games.  Take Detroit to blow out the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay.  The 49ers had last week off following their 21-20 loss to the LA Rams, as a 6-point home favorite, to end the regular season.  Meanwhile, the Packers went into Dallas and shocked the Cowboys last week, 48-32, as a 7-point road underdog.  Unfortunately, it's tough to pull off two road upsets in a row in the Playoffs.  We'll fade Green Bay, as NFL road teams, with a sub-.666 record, have cashed just 40% on the post-season road since 1980, if they won as a road dog in the Playoffs the previous week.  Even worse for Green Bay:  the 49ers are 70-31 ATS off an upset loss, if the 49ers were favored by 3+ points in their previous game.  Take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Houston.  We had a big play on the Texans last Saturday, and were rewarded with a 45-14 blowout win.  We also played against Baltimore in its last game, and got the $$$ with the Steelers, when they defeated the Ravens, 17-10.  Here, however, we'll take the Ravens and fade Houston off its 31-point victory.  Indeed, underdogs of +5 to +15 points, off a win by 28+ points, have gone 0-13 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss.  That doesn't bode well for Houston.  Nor does the fact that the Ravens are a spectacular 45-14 ATS when playing a non-division foe that owns a winning record, if the Ravens weren't off an ATS win.  And Houston is a horrible 22-39-3 ATS off an upset win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go OVER the total.  Last week, the Tampa Bay Bucs won, 9-0, at Carolina.  Off that extremely low scoring game, we'll look for a bounce higher tonight.  Indeed, NFL games have gone OVER the total 62-40-3 when the line was < 46 points, if a team's prior game totaled less than 14 points (including 4-1 Over in the Playoffs).  Likewise, Tampa has gone Over the total 16 of 21 at home following a low-scoring game which totaled 28 points or less.  Finally, the Eagles are 31-11 Over the total when the line was 44 < points, if the Eagles scored less than 24 points in their previous game.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Over the total.  The weather forecast for Buffalo, NY on Sunday is calling for winds in the 15 to 25 mph range.  This has caused the O/U line to be adjusted downward.  I think the move has been too severe, and that there's value on the over.  Buffalo's home playoff games have also tended to be relatively high scoring, as the Over has cashed 10 straight when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Likewise, the Steelers are 15-1 Over their last 16 Playoff games (and 24-6 Over their last 30) when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Over the total.  The weather forecast for Buffalo, NY on Sunday is calling for winds in the 15 to 25 mph range.  This has caused the O/U line to be adjusted downward.  I think the move has been too severe, and that there's value on the over.  Buffalo's home playoff games have also tended to be relatively high scoring, as the Over has cashed 10 straight when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Likewise, the Steelers are 15-1 Over their last 16 Playoff games (and 24-6 Over their last 30) when the O/U line was 44 points or less.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  Los Angeles went into San Francisco and upset the 49ers last Sunday, 21-20, while Detroit downed the Minnesota Vikings, 30-20.  The Lions have excelled since Dan Campbell took over as head coach.  They've gone 21-13 SU and 24-9-1 ATS, including an awesome 16-2-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a losing record.  On Sunday night, the Lions will welcome the Rams to Ford Field for Detroit's first home playoff game in 30 years.  This will be the Rams' 3rd straight road game, and NFL single-digit dogs off an upset win, and playing their 3rd straight road game have covered just 35.7% since 1980.  Additionally, the Rams are a poor 14-29 ATS off back to back wins (including 1-7 ATS off an upset win).  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Green Bay.  The Cowboys annihilated their opponents here, at home, this season.  Dallas went 8-0 and covered the point spread by an average of 12.87 ppg!  Dating back to last season, the Cowboys' home win streak is 16 games, and it's gone 12-4 ATS, and has covered the spread in those home games by 9.78 ppg.  Green Bay was 4-5 ATS on the road this season (but 1-5 ATS in non-division road games, compared to 3-0 ATS vs. its division rivals).  Dallas and Green Bay did meet last season at Lambeau Field, and the Packers came away with a 31-28 victory.  Unfortunately for the Packers, revenge-minded favorites of -7 (or more) points have covered 67% in the NFL Playoffs.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Kansas City.  The Chiefs' offense was a mess for much of the season, and it finished the regular season with an offensive average of 21.82 ppg.  In contrast, Miami averaged 29.0 ppg.  To put Kansas City's number into context, it averaged 35.31, 28.18, 29.56, 28.23, and 29.17 ppg over the previous five seasons.  We'll grab the points with the Dolphins as underdogs have cashed 67% the last 44 seasons in the Playoffs, if their offense averaged 4.30+ ppg more than their opponent.  Take Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Cleveland.  The Texans punched a spot into the Playoffs with a road win at Indianapolis, while Cleveland rested many of its players, and mailed in its game at Cincy last week, with a 31-14 loss.  These two teams met here, in Houston, three weeks ago, and the Browns were victorious, 36-22.  We'll take Houston to avenge that loss, as revenge-minded NFL home teams have cashed 69% in the Playoffs if the two teams recently met within the three previous games.  Even better:  the Browns are a wallet-breaking 0-12 ATS off a SU/ATS loss if it defeated its opponent earlier in the season.  Grab the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Buffalo/Miami game.  Buffalo has been installed as a road favorite.  And it's 8-0 Under its last eight as a road favorite of less than 6 points, while Miami is 42-21 Under at home when playing with revenge.  Take the Under.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Dolphins were blown out last week by Baltimore, 56-19.  But winning teams, off a loss by more than 7 points, have covered 86% as home underdogs since 1980, if they were playing with revenge.  And the Dolphins do, indeed, have revenge, since Buffalo blasted them by 28 points earlier this season.  I'll take the points with the home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers to go Over the total.  The Chiefs are not incentivized to win, so they will turn to QB Blaine Gabbert to line up under center for this game, while Patrick Mahomes will be on the sidelines.  The line has been adjusted, of course, to compensate for the players who won't be available, but I think there's significant value now on the Over, as it falls into a 24-4 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, the Chargers have gone Over the total 14 of the last 17 years in their final game, while KC has gone 6-2 Over in their final road game.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Atlanta/New Orleans game.  The Over falls into a 67-36 Totals system of mine, and I look for a relatively high scoring game on Sunday afternoon.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Carolina/Tampa Bay game.  The Panthers and Buccaneers both played poorly on offense last week.  Carolina was shutout, 26-0, by Jacksonville, while Tampa mustered just 13 points in a 10-point home loss to New Orleans.  I expect a higher scoring game this week, as NFL games tend to go over the total more often than not when both teams scored less than 14 points in their previous game.  And the Over also falls into a 109-58 Totals system of mine.  Take Carolina/Tampa Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Detroit.  These two teams met two game ago in Minneapolis, and the Lions came away with a 30-24 victory.  The story of that game was 4 interceptions thrown by Vikings QB Nick Mullens.  That led to Mullens being benched for last week's game vs. Green Bay.  But after the Vikes trailed 23-3 at halftime, coach Kevin O'Connell had second thoughts and inserted Mullens into the game to replace the ineffective Jaren Hall.  Mullens played better vs. Green Bay, as he was 13-of-22 for 113 yards and a TD.  But it was not enough as the Vikes fell, 33-10.  It's unclear who will start at QB for Minnesota in this game, which it must win if it is to have any shot at the Playoffs.  But regardless of who is under center, we'll take the road underdog, as Minnesota falls into a 152-77 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Grab the points with the Vikings.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Cleveland Browns.  Cincy lost at Cleveland, 24-3, to open the season.  We'll take the Bengals to close out the season with some payback, as Cleveland is a poor 5-21 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes that Cleveland defeated earlier in the season.  Additionally, the Bengals are 25-9 ATS in their final home game of the season, if they weren't laying more than 7 points.  Take Cincinnati.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Jacksonville.  Last week, the Titans were blown out, 26-3, by Houston, while the Jaguars shut out Carolina, 26-0.  We'll take Tennessee to bounce back, as NFL home dogs  (or PK) have cashed 64% since 1980 off a loss by 23+ points, if their opponent was off a win by 23+ points.  Take Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Panthers were shut out, 26-0, by Jacksonville.  I look for Carolina to bounce back as teams off shutout losses have gone 66-40 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points.  Even better, over the last 44 years, home underdogs have cashed 58.0 ATS in the last 3 weeks of the season, if they were off an SU/ATS loss.  Finally, the Panthers fall into 145-67, 84-25 and 157-72 ATS systems of mine.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans Under the total.  These two teams met earlier this season.  The Over/Under for that game was just 40 points. And it went over the total, as the two teams combined to score 51. This O/U line is significantly higher than the first meeting. I think it's too high. The Indianapolis Colts have not played a game with an Over/Under line this high in any of their last 30 games. And the Texans have only played two games this season with an over/under line north of 47 points. Both of those were 48, and Houston went under the total in each game. The Texans are 10-6 Under this season, and are 46-35 Under when the line was greater than 47 points. And the Colts are 86-59 under at home vs. division rivals, including 26-15 Under if the season's first meeting went Over the total.  Take the Under.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens are 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS, and will be the #1 seed in the AFC following their 56-19 blowout of the Miami Dolphins.  The Steelers are still in the running for the Playoffs.  And though they can still get in with a loss (if the Broncos win and the Jaguars lose), their chances will be greatly improved with a win.  We'll lay the points with Pittsburgh, as it's 81-34 ATS vs. foes that scored 23+ points in their previous game, if that foe owned an ATS win pct. of .400 (or better).  Additionally, Baltimore is 2-10 ATS at home vs. the rival Steelers, if Baltimore had a winning record ATS.  Lay the points with Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over Kansas City.  The Bengals lost in the Playoffs to the Chiefs last season, so that will be added incentive for Zac Taylor's men on Sunday.  Both of these teams come into this game off losses.  Cincy was blown out by Pittsburgh on Saturday, while the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Monday.  I like the underdog Bengals here, as they're 14-1 ATS when installed as an underdog of more than 2 points.  Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Detroit.  After losing to the Miami Dolphins last week, the Cowboys are now 1-12 ATS their last 13 on the road vs winning teams that were in the Playoffs the previous season. The good news for Dallas, then, in this game is that it is not on the road, and Detroit wasn't in the Playoffs last season. Dallas has played 5 games the past two seasons at home vs. winning clubs, and the Cowboys have won all 5, and have gone 3-2 straight-up. Even better: winning NFL teams have gone 41-20 ATS as a single-digit home favorite (or PK) off back to back SU/ATS road losses. Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Under in the Detroit/Dallas game.  The Lions come into this game off back to back Overs, as they blew out Denver, 42-17, and won at Minnesota, 30-24.  But off those two high-scoring games, we'll take the Under on Saturday night, as Detroit has gone 62-42 Under off back to back Overs, including 8-0 UNDER when the O/U line was 52+ points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders Over the total.  We played on each of these teams to go over the total last week, and cashed both, as the Raiders put up 63 points in a 63-21 win over the Chargers, while the Chiefs tallied 27 in a 27-17 victory over New England.  We'll come right back with the Over in this divisional matchup on Christmas Day as it falls into 67-35 and 109-57 Totals systems of mine.  Additionally, six of the last seven meetings between these two rivals have gone OVER the total.  And those seven games have averaged 57.28 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Chicago Bears.  This is the 3rd time this season the Bears have been installed as a point spread favorite, and they've yet to cover in that role.  Even worse, Chicago is 23-38-2 ATS its last 63 games as a favorite, including 11-25-2 ATS when favored by less than 5 points.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 21-6-1 ATS as a single-digit road underdog, including 13-1 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Grab the points with Arizona.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  I'm well aware of how poor Dallas has done vs. top-level teams.  But off its 21-point loss to Buffalo, we'll step in and take the Cowboys today.  Dallas is 22-12-1 ATS off a 20-point (or worse) loss when not getting 3+ points.  And the Cowboys also fall into a 97-52 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets and Washington Commanders Under the total.  Both of these teams come into this game with sub-.400 records.  The Jets are 5-9, while the Commanders are 4-10.  Late in the season, when two awful teams match-up, the games tend to be low-scoring, and have gone under the total 57.7% since 1980.  Additionally, the Jets were shutout, 30-0, at Miami last weekend.  And NFL teams off shutout losses have gone 42-27 under their last 69.  Take the under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Buffalo.  The Chargers were the 2nd team this NFL season to fall by 40+ points when they were crushed, 63-21, by the Raiders on Thursday Night Football.  Historically, teams do bounce back from such blowout losses when they play at home in their next game, but not when they take to the road.  At home, our teams have gone 34-25-2 ATS, while they they've faltered on the road, to the tune of 6-12-2 ATS.  The Chargers have been installed as a double-digit home dog, which also bodes well, as double-digit home dogs have gone 130-102-2 ATS.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  This is the Steelers' final home game of the season.  And they come into the game off 3 SU/ATS losses.  We played against the Black and Gold last week, and got the $$$$ with the Colts.  But we'll switch gears today, and take the points with the home pup.  Indeed, home dogs off 3 SU/ATS losses have covered 64% since 1980 in their final home game of the season.  Take Pittsburgh.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New Orleans/Los Angeles game.  This game is a technical play, as it falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 65% over the last 44 seasons, as well as a 59% system.  Additionally, the Saints have held their last two opponents to 6 points each.  And NFL teams that have given up less than 13 points in their two previous games have gone 148-121-7 OVER.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks Under the total.  The Eagles' defense has not played well the last three weeks, as it's given up 34, 42 and 33 points.  Off those three dismal performance, we'll take the Eagles and Seahawks to go under the total, as NFL teams that gave up more than 30 points in each of their 3 previous games have gone Under the total 59.5% since 1980.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Baltimore.  The Jaguars come into this Sunday Night game off back to back losses to Cincinnati and Cleveland. They'll now play their 3rd straight game vs. an AFC North division foe, as Baltimore will come into Jacksonville. Since 1980, winning teams (like the Jaguars) have cashed 61 percent at home off back to back losses, if they weren't favored by more than 1 point. Take the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Dallas.  Both Dallas and Buffalo scored their biggest wins of the season last Sunday. The Bills moved to 7-6 with a 20-17 win at Kansas City, while Dallas won at home, 33-13, vs. rival Philadelphia. That was Dallas' 5th straight win, overall. And four of those five wins came at home, including their last three. Now, the Cowboys have to take to the road, and play a Bills team which needs to keep winning to get into the Playoffs. I'll fade Dallas, as road teams off a home win, and 3 home games, overall, have gone 98-133-3 ATS. And the Cowboys are an ugly 1-10 ATS on the road vs winning teams that were in the Playoffs the previous season. Take Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Rams Under the total.  The Commanders had last week off to rest, and regroup after 4 straight losses where they gave up more than 28 points.  They lost 29-26 at Seattle.  Then the New York Giants upset them, 31-19.  On Thanksgiving, Dallas blew them out, 45-10, while Miami put up 45 in a 30-point win two weeks ago.   All four of those games went Over the total.  I like the Under in this game, as teams off 3 straight Overs where they gave up more than 30 points in each of those three games, have then gone under the total 60% since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Rams had a high-scoring game at Baltimore last Sunday.  But Los Angeles is 14-3-1 Under following a game that went Over the total, including 11-0 Under if the O/U line was greater than 42 points.  Take the Under.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Los Angeles Rams.  The Commanders had last week off to rest and prepare for this game, while the Rams lost an overtime affair at Baltimore (but covered the spread in defeat).  The Rams are a poor 8-21 ATS off 3 ATS wins, including 0-8 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -11 points.  And they're 1-12 ATS vs. rested foes when priced from -3 to -13 points.  Admittedly, the Commanders were playing poorly going into their Bye Week, as they had dropped 4 straight games, including their last three ATS.  The good news is that rested underdogs of more than 5 points have cashed 75% since 1990, if they had lost their three previous games SU/ATS.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Kansas City.  Defending Super Bowl champs have not done well as road favorites vs. foes off a straight-up win, and especially not in non-division games, as they've gone 22-41 ATS since 1981, including 0-11 ATS when laying more than 7 points. Take New England + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over the New York Giants.  The Giants pulled off a big upset this past Monday at home vs. Green Bay, as they won 24-22 as a 6-point home underdog. But road teams have had letdowns off upset home wins, if they were an underdog of more than 5 points in that upset win. Since 1980, those teams have gone 88-126-6 ATS. Take the Saints.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Carolina/Atlanta game.  The first meeting between these NFC South division rivals was low-scoring, with just 34 point scored (Atlanta won, 24-10).  Since 1980, subsequent meetings between division rivals have gone Over the total 55% if the prior meeting totaled less than 36 points.  Take the Falcons and Panthers Over the total.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New England/Kansas City game.  After scoring just 13 points over its three previous games, the New England offense broke out (for it, anyway) in a big way last Thursday.  It scored 21 first-half points, and coasted to a 21-18 victory in a game which went "over' by halftime.  We played on the Over in that Patriots/Steelers game, and will come right back with the Over in this Patriots/Chiefs game, as the number is still too low, by my math.  The Chiefs are also 24-10 Over their last 34 as road favorites of more than 6 points.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New York Giants/New Orleans Saints game.  The Giants had their 2nd best offensive performance of the season, in terms of yards gained, this past Monday.  New York rolled up 367 yards of offense, and tallied 24 points in an upset win of Green Bay.  That game easily went over the posted total of 37.5, and that was the 3rd time in its last four games that New York went Over the total (after playing 7 unders in a row prior to that).  New Orleans has had a similar arc.  After starting the season with 6 straight unders, it has now played Overs in four of its last seven.  We'll ride the current momentum, and look for another high-scoring game here.  Take the Giants and Saints Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Atlanta.  The Panthers have been installed as a home underdog in this NFC South division contest.  We'll grab the points, as home dogs off 3+ losses have done well in the final 4 games of the regular season, with a 95-60-2 ATS record vs. sub-.666 opponents.  That bodes well for Carolina.  As does the fact that the Falcons have covered just 10 of 29 as road favorites.  Take the Panthers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Colts were blown out, 34-14, by Cincinnati last week, as a 3-point road underdog.  So, Indianapolis failed to cover the spread by 17 points.  But that bodes well for them here, at home, vs. Pittsburgh, as the Colts are 35-10 ATS off a straight-up loss, if they failed to cover the spread in that previous game by 8 or more points.  Take Indianapolis.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the OVER in the Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers game.  The Chargers lost quarterback Justin Herbert for the rest of the season, so Easton Stick will get the start on Thursday night. Prior to last week's games, the Over/Under line on this game was projected to be 42.5, but the number has been significantly adjusted after the results of the Chargers' 24-7 loss to Denver, and the Raiders' 3-0 loss to the Vikings. I think the adjustment has been too severe. We will take the Over, as NFL games have gone Over the total 59% of the time, if each team's previous game went under, and each scored less than 10 points in its prior game.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers have won 3 straight games -- each as an underdog.  They upset Kansas City last week, the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, and the Los Angeles Chargers at Lambeau Field before that.  But now the Packers are favored by the most points they've been all season.  And NFL road favorites of -4 (or more) points, off back to back upset wins, have gone 4-17 ATS.  Even worse for Green Bay:  it's 2-10 ATS its last 12 as a favorite of -4 to -9.5 points, including 0-4 ATS on the road.  Take the Giants as the home underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Dallas/Philadelphia game.  The Eagles were destroyed by the San Francisco 49ers last week, 42-19.  We'll take the Philadelphia/Dallas game under the total, as the Eagles have gone 64-27 Under following a game which totaled 58 or more points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles are the league's best team ATS, as they're 8-3-1 ATS this season.  They're also an awesome 21-8 ATS their last 29 vs. winning opponents off back to back wins.  Dallas, meanwhile, is great this season against bad teams, but has not stepped up against the league's best.  And the Cowboys are also a wallet-lightening 19-36-1 ATS vs. winning foes, including 2-14 ATS if Dallas was favored by less than 4 points, 11-26 ATS if Dallas was off a win, and 6-10 ATS if Dallas had revenge.  Take Philadelphia + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Denver/Los Angeles game.  The Chargers went into Foxborough last Sunday and shut out the New England Patriots, 6-0.  That was the 3rd straight Under played by the Chargers, and those three games totaled 79 points combined.  I like the Over in this game, as teams off 3 straight unders, in 3 games that combined for 79 or less points, have proceeded to go over the total 65.2% of the time.  Take the Broncos and Chargers Over the total.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Denver.  The Broncos' 5-game win streak was snapped last Sunday by Houston, and I like the Chargers to hand Denver its 2nd straight loss this weekend.  The Broncos are a wallet-busting 0-13 ATS in 'win-situation' games with point spread of 3 or less, if the Broncos were on the road, and owned a win percentage > .350.  Meanwhile, the Chargers are 26-14 ATS in division games if they were off a straight-up win, and owned a losing record on the season.  Take Los Angeles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Kansas City.  The Bills suffered a horrible loss in overtime against the Philadelphia Eagles two weeks ago, and they will be hard-pressed to make the Playoffs this season should they lose this game to the Kansas City Chiefs.  With their season likely on the line, we'll grab the points with Buffalo, which is 45-34-4 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 4-1 ATS with rest.  And it's 7-1-1 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss, when matched up against an opponent with a better record.  Grab the points with Buffalo.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts over the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals pulled off a huge upset last week on Monday Night Football when they won outright as a 10-point dog.  Unfortunately, teams off upset wins as double-digit underdogs have not done well the following week, as they've gone 81-106 ATS.  Take the Colts.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions Under the total.  These two teams played a couple of weeks ago, and the Lions won, 31-26.  That game was played at Detroit's Ford Field, which is a covered stadium, so the teams were not impacted by weather.  This Sunday, the weather outlook calls for 10 to 15 mile per hour winds, and 35 degree weather, which will contribute to a much lower-scoring game than the first meeting.  The Bears have gone 28-12 Under at home in the final 5 games of the season (when Chicago weather is at its worst), when the O/U line ranged from 39 to 48.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Houston.  The Jets lost to the Falcons, at home, last week, 13-8.  New York is back home for this game, and will host the upstart Texans, who are 7-5 on the season.  I like New York, as it's 23-4 ATS at home vs. winning teams if the Jets were at home in their previous game, but didn't win and cover the spread in that game.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Detroit Lions.  These two teams met three weeks ago in Ford Field, and the Lions came away with a comeback win, 31-26.  We played on the Bears +7.5 in that game, and will take them as a home underdog today, on Sunday.  Chicago had last week off to rest and prepare for this division revenge match, while Detroit had a home game vs. the Saints.  The Lions are an atrocious 7-26-2 ATS as a road favorite vs. sub-.400 foes.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots Over the total.  The Over/Under in this game has been installed around 30 points, which is the lowest over/under number this season.  Historically, NFL games with over/under lines less than 31 have gone Over the total, as they've gone Over 82 percent since 1982.  Usually, when the Over/Under lines get down this low, it's due to weather.  Here, it's because of the Patriots' horrible offense.  New England has scored just 13 points over its three previous games.  But teams that have scored a combined 25 or less points over their previous 3 games, all of which have gone Under the total, have then proceeded to go over the total 76 of 128 games, or 59.3%.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Philadelphia.  The Eagles have the best record in football, at 10-1, and have won 5 straight, yet are a home underdog vs. the 49ers.  Unfortunately, home dogs of 2 (or more) points, on a 5-game (or better) win streak, have covered just 41% since 2001.  And the 49ers are 30-14-1 ATS their last 45, including 10-1-1 ATS their last 12 vs. .700 (or better) foes.  I'll take San Francisco minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Panthers have won just once this season, and fired head coach Frank Reich on Monday.  Chris Tabor will take over as interim head coach.  We'll take Carolina + the points on Sunday, as underdogs have gone 54-31-2 ATS in NFC South division games if it was the first meeting of the season.  That bodes well for Carolina today.  As does the fact that Tampa's 15-31-2 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 0-5 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Commanders were trounced on Thanksgiving Day by Dallas, 45-10.  I like playing on Underdogs following a blowout loss by 14+ points on Thanksgiving, as they've cashed 67% in their next game.  Additionally, underdogs of more than 8 points, off a loss by more than 31 points, have cashed 67.6% over the last 34 years.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Detroit.  The Saints return home after back to back upset losses to the Vikings and Falcons on the road.  I'll take the Saints, as home teams have covered 61.2% since 1980 following back to back upsets as a road favorite.  Grab the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New Orleans/Detroit game.  The Lions were upset last week at home as a 9-point favorite vs. Green Bay.  We'll take the Under in their game at New Orleans, as road favorites of -4 (or more) points, off an upset loss as a 7-point (or greater) favorite, have gone 9-1 under their last 10 (and 52-29-1 under their last 82).  Take the Saints/Lions Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers to go OVER the total.  The Chargers come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, and will need to reel off six straight wins, if they're to have any hope of making the playoffs.  Los Angeles is 39-17 Over the total on the road off back to back losses, and I look for a relatively high scoring game today.  Take the Over.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  Both teams come into this game off losses.  The Bears lost a heartbreaker last week to Detroit, 31-26, while Minny fell to the Broncos, 21-20.  Unfortunately for the Vikings, winning teams (like Minnesota) have burned money on Monday Night if they lost their previous game, as they've gone 63-81-3 ATS.  Even worse for Minnesota:  revenge-minded NFC North division teams have gone 105-74 ATS if they were playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and were also off a straight-up loss in their previous game.   With Chicago playing with revenge from a 6-point loss to the Vikings earlier this season, I'll take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers Under the total.  The Ravens have gone 16-7 Under their last 23 as a road favorite, while the Chargers have gone 16-7 Under as a home dog vs. AFC foes.  Additionally, this season, games involving home underdogs of less than 7 (or PK) have gone 39-16 Under.  I expect a relatively low scoring game.  Take the Ravens + Chargers Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Philadelphia.  This past Monday, the Eagles won an emotional game, as they upset the Chiefs, who defeated them in last year's Super Bowl.  Off that emotional game, I'll fade Philadelphia here, as teams that avenged a playoff loss with an upset win have cashed just 38.8% in their next game.  Take the Bills.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Giants.  The Patriots come into this road game off 3 SU/ATS losses, while the Giants enter off an upset win over the Washington Commanders.  I'll take New England, as it's 22-1 ATS on the road off a loss, if its opponent was off a win.  And road favorites (or PK) off 3 losses have covered 71.8% since 1980 vs. foes off a win.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Jacksonville/Houston game.  The Jaguars were upset by Houston, 37-20, in the first meeting, and that game went over the total.  I like taking regular season rematches of games with O/U lines of 47+ under the total if the favored team was upset in the first meeting, and that prior meeting went also went Over the total.  The rematches then have gone Under the total 61.1 percent since 1980.  Take the Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  Both the Panthers and the Titans were blown out in their last game.  Carolina lost by 33 at home to Dallas, while the Titans were routed by Jacksonville, 34-14.  I'll take the points with the Panthers, as they're 47-27 ATS as road underdogs vs. opponents that don't have a winning record.  Meanwhile, Tennessee is a terrible 16-34-3 ATS in non-division games, if the Titans weren't getting 3+ points, including 8-27 ATS if their opponent wasn't off a win.  Take Carolina.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Jets were bombed by the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, 32-6, as an 8.5-point road underdog, while Miami downed the Las Vegas Raiders, 20-13, as a 13.5-point home favorite.  We'll take the Flyboys to bounce back off that blowout loss, as home dogs of more than 9 points have gone 39-12 ATS off a 7-point (or worse) road loss when matched up against a foe off a 7-point (or greater) home win.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  This NFC East division rivalry is one of the fiercest rivalries in the league.  And the underdog has generally got the $$$, including a 40-16 ATS record if the favored team was not off a straight-up loss.  That bodes well for the Commanders on Thursday.  As does the fact that Dallas is 1-11 ATS its last 12 Thanksgiving Day games.  Take Washington + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers under the total.  These two teams met earlier this season in Green Bay, and Detroit won that game, 34-20.  The Over/Under for that game was 45.5.  This Thanksgiving Day game has a higher number, and it is the highest over/under line for the Packers this season.  I look for a relatively low scoring game, as Green Bay has gone 13-5 under in games with O/U lines greater than 46 points.  Additionally, the under falls into 551-449, 383-287 and 94-49 Totals system of mine.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Buffalo/New York game.  These two teams met in Week 1, on Monday Night, and the Jets escaped with a 22-16 victory in overtime.  That game went under the total of 44.5.  We have a much lower number here, and I like the Over, as rematches of AFC East division games that went under the total in the first meeting have gone over the total more often than not in the 2nd meeting.  And the Bills are also 36-26 Over in games with O/U lines less than 42 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Carolina Panthers have been installed as a double-digit home underdog.   And double-digit home dogs have been money in the bank over the years, as they've gone 129-100-2 ATS.  And they've been especially strong in non-division games, with a 74-48 ATS record.  Take the Panthers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Detroit Lions.  The Lions are a soft 29-54 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -10 points.  Additionally, the Bears will play this game with an extra 3 days to rest and prepare, as their last game was on Thursday, while Detroit played on Sunday.  I'll grab the points, as division road underdogs of more than 7 points have gone 89-72 ATS off a straight-up win.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over the Tennessee Titans.  This is Tennessee's 3rd straight road game.  And NFL teams playing their 3rd straight on the road have gone 128-162 ATS since 1980, including 27-55-1 ATS vs. .500 (or better) division foes.  The Titans have also gone 0-5 ATS their last five away from Nashville.  Meanwhile, the Jaguars fell to 6-3 after their 34-3 loss to the 49ers last Sunday.  But .666 (or better) teams have gone 8-0 ATS since 2016 following a game where they scored 3 points or less.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Washington Commanders.  These two teams met last month in the Meadowlands, and the Commanders scored just 7 points in a 14-7 defeat.  Now, they're laying more than that, which is the first time Washington has been favored by this many points in over 6 years.  And when they've been favored by 9 or more points, the Commanders are 4-14 ATS their last 18.  But it's not just as a big favorite that Washington has struggled.  The Commanders are also 15-45 ATS when favored by more than 5 points, including 0-2 ATS this season.  I generally don't like laying a lot of points with bad teams, and the Commanders certainly qualify.  Washington has been outscored by 5.70 ppg this season.  And teams with a negative scoring margin have gone 72-136-5 ATS when favored by 9 or more points against losing opposition.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Denver Broncos.  When we last saw Denver, it was upsetting rival Kansas City, 24-9, as a 7-point underdog.  We had our AFC West Division Game of the Year on Denver, so we were not surprised by the outright win.  But off that victory, we'll fade the Broncos here, as NFL road teams have cashed just 28% on Monday Nights the last 33 years off an upset home win.  Even worse:  Denver is 3-21 ATS off a SU/ATS home win over a division rival.  And it's a dreadful 2-13 SU and 3-11-1 ATS on the road when not getting double-digits.  Lay the points with Josh Allen & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Washington.  The Seahawks are 5-3 and tied for first place in the NFC West division standings.  They did lose by 34 points last week, but I love the Seahawks to bounce back on Sunday.  Since 1980, NFL teams with a .583 (or better) win percentage, that scored less than 6 points in their previous game, have gone 73-45-3 ATS including 11-0 ATS their last 11.  And the Seahawks are a solid 16-7 ATS off a loss by more than 16 points.  Lay the points with Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Dallas.  The Giants were blown out, 30-6, by the Las Vegas Raiders last week.  And they've now lost 2 straight, and haven't covered the point spread in either.  And they're 2-7 straight-up, and 2-6-1 ATS on the season.  The Giants and Cowboys met earlier this year, and Dallas annihilated New York, 40-0, for the worst shutout loss a team has suffered since the Chargers lost 45-0 to the Patriots in 2020.  We'll take New York to avenge that defeat, as underdogs of 14 (or more) points have gone 57–31-3 ATS off back to back losses, if they didn't cover the spread in those two losses, and lost by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Even better:  underdogs of +3 (or more) points that were shutout and lost the previous meeting by more than points have gone 44-25 ATS.  Grab the points with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/Green Bay game.  Both of these teams come into this game at Acrisure Stadium off a string of low-scoring games.  Pittsburgh has played its last 6 under, while Green Bay has gone under the total in 4 straight.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here.  But consider that teams off 6 or more Unders have actually gone OVER the total 106-84 since 1980.  We'll take the Packers and Steelers Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Chicago.  I can't lay points with a Chicago team which has won just 2 of its last 19 games.  The Bears are also a poor 23-37 ATS as a favorite, including 14-24 ATS vs. a foe off a loss.  And the Panthers are 46-27 ATS as a road underdog vs. a non-winning foe.  I'll take the Panthers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Over in the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders game. The New York Giants are averaging a league-low 11.8 ppg, and their last 6 games have gone Under the total. But in none of those 6 games were both Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones on the field. Barkley missed Game 3, 4 and 5, while Jones was sidelined for Games 6, 7, and 8. I expect a much better offensive performance for the Giants now that both will be in the backfield on Sunday. And the Over also falls into 43-24 and 93-69 Totals systems of mine.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Under in the Carolina/Indianapolis game.  The Colts' defense has been a sieve over the past three weeks, as they gave up 37 to Jacksonville, 38 to Cleveland, and 38 last week to New Orleans. After those three high-scoring games -- all of which went Over the total -- I'll take the Under in this game vs. Carolina. Since 1980, NFL games have gone Under the total 60% of the time, if a team gave up more than 30 points in each of its last three games, and all 3 went Over the total. Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Matthew Stafford will be sidelined this afternoon, and the Rams will instead have Brett Rypien under center.  They'll be looking to bounce back from last week's 43-20 loss to Dallas.  We'll grab the points, as underdogs have gone 430-336-17 ATS in non-division games off a loss by more than 18 points.  And the Packers are a poor 3-12 ATS as a single-digit favorite, including 1-8 ATS in non-division games.  Take Los Angeles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Please note that this game's start time is early Sunday morning, as it is being played in Frankfurt, Germany.  Last week, I had my AFC West Game of the Year on the Denver Broncos +7 over Kansas City, so I wasn't surprised that the Super Bowl champs were upset in that game. But I will switch gears and play on Kansas City in this contest, as defending champs have gone 14-1 ATS away from home off a loss, if they were playing a .700 (or better) opponent off a SU/ATS win. Lay the points with KC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over San Francisco.  The 49ers come into this game off back to back upset losses, while Cincy has won its last 2, both straight-up, and ATS.  In most instances, I would be looking to play on the team off back to back upset losses.  And it's certainly true that the 49ers have excelled in that situation, going 11-5 ATS.  But my problem here is that I don't want to lay this many points to a dangerous and, in my mind, still undervalued Bengals team.  Indeed, dating back to the start of the 2021 season, the Bengals are 12-0 ATS when getting 2.5 or more points.  I won't fade those numbers.  Take Cincinnati.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City.  The Broncos lost at Kansas City 2 weeks ago, 19-8.  But they'll get a chance to avenge that defeat at home, on Sunday.  And I love playing on revenge-minded home underdogs that lost to their opponent in their previous game, or two games back, as they've covered 65.9% since 1980.  Even better:  AFC West division underdogs, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, with a .500 (or worse) record, have gone 100-64-6 ATS.  Take Denver.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over Baltimore.  The Cardinals return home off back to back road games.  And they've played much better at home this season than on the road.  At home, Arizona has averaged 25.3 ppg on offense, compared to 12.7 ppg on the road.  And Arizona has gone 2-1 ATS at home, compared to 1-3 ATS on the road.   Arizona is an awesome 31-7 ATS at home vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win, if Arizona was not favored by 3 or more points.  And the Ravens are a wallet-busting 10-22-4 ATS on the road off a win by 19 or more points.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens Over the total.  The Cardinals have not been scoring on the road this season, but they have been scoring in bunches at home.  On the road, Arizona has averaged 12.7 ppg, and three of its four road games have gone under the total.  But it's been a different story in front of its home faithful, as Arizona has averaged 25.3 ppg, and all three went over the total.  The Cardinals have gone over in 17 of their last 26 home games.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs to go Over the total.  The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game off 3 straight unders, while the Broncos have played their last 2 under the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially with Denver scoring just 8 points in the season's first meeting.  But I'll take the Over, as the Chiefs are 25-13 Over the total following 3 or more unders.  And NFL games have gone Over the total 56% the past 20 seasons if a team scored 8 or less points in the season's prior meeting.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Houston.  The Texans come into this game off four straight covers -- all as an underdog.  But now, they're favored at Carolina.  And the last time Houston was favored, it didn't cover.  I don't like to play on teams as favorites following a string of covers as an underdog, as such teams generally don't do very well when they reverse roles from an underdog to a favorite.  Indeed, favorites of more than 2 points, off 3 straight dog covers have gone just 14-37 ATS, including 5-23 ATS vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints over Indianapolis.  Last week, I played on the Colts vs. the Browns, as I loved the situational spot for Indianapolis, as it was off a 17-point blowout loss to division rival, Jacksonville, while the Browns came in off that shocking upset win over the previously-undefeated 49ers.  But now the Colts are NOT off a SU/ATS loss, as they covered the spread in defeat vs. Cleveland.  And Indy is a super 46-21 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, including 3-0 ATS this season.  But when it's NOT off a SU/ATS loss, Indy has gone just 31-43-3 ATS.  Meanwhile, New Orleans is 60-35 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS loss, including 15-4 ATS their last 19.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers over Minnesota.  The Vikings upset the 49ers on Monday Night Football, 22-17, as a 7-point underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Minnesota in this game.  Since 1980, NFL favorites (or PK) off an upset win as a home underdog of more than 5 points, have covered just 38%.  Even better:  in this NFC North division rivalry, teams off a SU/ATS win have gone just 10-24 ATS when their opponent was not off a SU/ATS win.  With Green Bay off a loss to Denver, we'll take the Packers to snap their losing streak.