Lions @ 49ers 6:30 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: 49ers -7.0

The difference in this game will be the 49ers passing game against a Detroit defense which has allowed 319 yards or more through the air in each of their previous 5 games. Additionally, the 49ers defense is allowing just 17.7 points and 305.4 yards per game this season which ranks among the league’s best in both categories. Lastly, the 49ers are the more experienced team in big game situations such as these and Detroit takes to the road for a first time this postseason. Give me the 49ers plus points.

Props

·       Brock Purdy over 276.5 passing yards.

·       49ers over 30.5 points scored.

·       Chrisian McCaffery under 84.5 (-115) rushing yards.

·       Chrisian McCaffery over 36.5 (-115) receiving yards.

Chiefs @ Bills 6:30 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Bills -2.5 (10*)

Despite all the success that Patrick Mahomes has had in his career postseason career, this will be his first start on the road in the AFC Wildcard Round, AFC Divisional Round, and AFC Championship Game. Technically Mahomes does have 1 postseason road start and came versus Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl which the Chiefs lost.

Buffalo is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 5-1 SU in their postseason home games. Additionally, this will be just the 3rd time in that stretch they’ll be a home favorite of 4.5 or less. The previous 2 time they beat Baltimore 17-3 in 2021 and New England 47-17 in 2022. The Bills enter this contest on a 6-game win streak while 4 of those 6 opponents finished with regular season action with a winning record. The Bills suffered 6 losses this season, and they all came by 6 points or fewer. So, a strong case can be made for them being an even better team than their current 12-6 record indicates. It’s been well documented how Buffalo will be shorthanded due to several injuries to starters and most notable on the defensive side of the board. However, they do have quality depth on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo began their current win streak with a 20-17 win at Kansas City.

The Bills are coming off a 31-17 home win over Pittsburgh last week, and they covered as a 10.0-point favorite. The current total on today’s game is 45.5. This sets up a 100% betting angle that has remained unscathed since 2009. NFL postseason home favorites of 7.0 or less with a total that’s 51.0 or less and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 10.0 or less, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. The average line in those 6 contests was 4.9 and those home favorites won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points.

Dolphins @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Play On: Chiefs -4.5

Miami enters the postseason mentally deflated. They lost their last 2 games of regular season action which included last Sunday night’s home loss to Buffalo that dropped them from a #2 to #6 seed. Putting things into perspective, they blew a 3.0 game lead over Buffalo in the last 5 games of the season and choked away a chance to end Buffalo’s 3-year reign as AFC East Division champions.  It’s also well documented the recent struggle that Miami has endured when playing teams with a winning record since early last season. To make matters worse, they’ll be facing a Kansas City team which is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 postseason home games and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less.

NFL postseason home favorites of 5.0 or less with a win percentage of .625 or better versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points.

Washington vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Michigan -4.5

The Wolverines defense will be the difference in this contest and will be the best stop unit that Washington’s offense will have faced all season. The Huskies star quarterback Michael Pennix is adept when it comes to getting rid of the ball quickly and with pinpoint accuracy. Those traits have given opposing secondaries fits this season. However, the Wolverines defense is extremely good and will force Pennix to hang on to the ball a lot more than he’s been used to and in turn will make Michigan’s stellar front 7 a relevant factor. The Wolverines have allowed 24 points or fewer in all 14 games this season and 15 or less on 11 separate occasions. Additionally, Michigan has also allowed less than 200 yards passing in 12 of 14 games. Conversely, Washington has allowed 31 points or more 6 times this season. Here’s another thing that favors Michigan. They’re +16 in the turnover margin this season while Washington is only +1. This is the Wolverines year and they’ll be out to make an emphatic statement tonight. Give me Michigan minus points.

Bills @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Bills -2.5

Buffalo has had Miami’s number in recent season while winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Their lone loss in that sequence was 21-19 on the road in September of 2022. The Bills deserved a better fate in that defeat when considering they outgained Miami 497-212. Additionally, Josh Allen’s career passing and rushing statistics are far and away the best against Miami than any other NFL team. Buffalo has been as healthy as they’ve been in quite some time, while Miami has sustained many key injuries heading into this matchup. Give me Buffalo minus points.

Texas vs. Washington 8:45 PM ET

Game# 279-280

Play On: Texas -3.5

This is one of those situations where many bettors will be lured into taking the underdog Washington Huskies. After all, Washington enters this matchup 13-0 and is the higher ranked team versus the favorite Texas Longhorns (12-1). Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Keep in mind, Washington’s last 9 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been dominating the opposition. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. But I like Texas’ defense much better than that of Washington’s stop unit. Despite their undefeated record, the Washington defense allowed 500 yards or more on 3 separate occasions this season. Give me Texas minus points.

Bengals @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Bengals +6.5

The Chiefs are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a favorite of 8.5 or less. Furthermore, Kansas City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home, and 0-3 SU&ATS at home this season versus opponents that currently own a winning record. The Chiefs are also a concerning -10 turnover margin throughout their previous 8 games.

Since taking over at starting quarterback for an injured Joe Burrow, Jale Browning has made 5 starts and averaged 303.0 yards passing per game, threw for 7 touchdowns, and ran for 2 scores. That’s a respectable job done from a backup quarterback. The Bengals are coming off last week’s extremely disappointing 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh which halted their 3-game win streak.  Cincinnati is 8-7 and still contending for a Wildcard berth. Here’s the odd thing about the Bengals record this season, they’re a dismal 0-5 versus division opponents, and an impressive 8-2 in their other 10 games. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Cincinnati is a very profitable 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5-points, and they won 7 of those 10 contests SU. Give me the Bengals plus points.

Texas A& M vs. Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET

Game# 247-248

Play On: Oklahoma State -3.5

Texas A&M will be playing with an interim coaching staff while Mike Elko waits in the wings to take over as head coach. The A&M roster has been decimated by opt outs and players entering the transfer portal. Notably starting quarterback Max Johnson and 5 defensive starters that logged 365 plays or more this season. That’s not good news when facing an Oklahoma State team that made it to the Big 12 Conference Championship game and scored 39 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Additionally, the Cowboys roster was hardly dented by the transfer portal and opt outs in comparison to the rest of this season’s bowl teams.

Ravens @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET

Game# 481-482

Play On: 49ers -6.0

The 49ers are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 13.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by 22.0 points per game and with an average line of -6.3. As a matter of fact, San Francisco will enter tonight’s matchup on a 6-game win streak. Since the 2021-2022 season began, San Francisco is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home after winning 4 or more games in a row and with an average victory margin of 19.3 points per game. Baltimore and Lamar Jackson have put together an excellent winning track record against NFC teams. Buth this 49ers squad is a whole different animal. Give me the 49ers minus points.

Eagles @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Cowboys -3.5

Let’s start with this. The Cowboys are averaging 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home while averaging a massive 4141.0 points scored and 438.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, the Eagles have allowed 29.4 points and 433.0 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. The stout Dallas defense had an uncharacteristically bad game during last week’s 41-35 home win over Seattle in which they allowed the Seahawks to rack up 406 yards of total offense. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season Dallas has gone 10-0 SU&ATS after a contest in which they allowed 400 yards or more and won by an average of 17.5 points per game. During that identical time span, Dallas went 7-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more and won by an average of 15.1 points per contest and held their opponents to a mere 14.9 points scored per outing. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season. Dallas deserved a better fate in that contest when considering they outgained the Eagles in total yards by a margin of 406-292. Give me the Cowboys minus points.

Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET

Game# 305-306

Play On: Oregon -9.5

This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game.

Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year.

Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 271-272

Play On: Chargers +3.0

The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win.

The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss.

Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play.

Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Play On: Michigan -3.0

Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points.

Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Vikings +3.0

The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points.

Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET

Game# 363-364

Play On: Kansas State -9.5

So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points.

Commanders @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET

Game# 261-262

Play On: Commanders +6.0

Seattle was hammered in last week’s 37-3 loss at Baltimore in a game the Ravens held a total yard advantage of 515-151. Since the 2021-2022 season, Seattle is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 7.0. Furthermore, they lost 6 of those 10 games outright. Washington is coming off a confidence building 20-17 win at New England last Sunday in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. The Commanders are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as an away underdog this season and won 3 of those contests SU. Washington’s 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell has been terrific in the last 2 games while going 68-97 (70.1%) passing which accounted for 696 yards. Since 2021-2022, Washington is 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in Games 10 through 13. Give me the Commanders plus the points as my Top Play of the Week.

Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET

Game# 141-142

Play On: UCF +2.5

Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is.

College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati 8:15 PM ET

Game# 8:20 PM ET

Play On: Buffalo +2.5

A lot of people have written off Buffalo but I’m not one of them. Granted they’ve looked anything like a serious Super Bowl contender during a listless 5-3 start to the season. Now they’re about to face a Cincinnati team that’s rounded into form over the last 3 games and very much appears like they’re going on another deep postseason run. However, why are they just a 2.5-point home favorite? This looks like a huge trap to take the small home favorite that’s on a red-hot roll right now. However. keep in mind that Buffalo hasn’t been an underdog very much in recent seasons but when that occurs, they’ve been money in the bank. Specifically speaking, the Bills are 6-0 ATS including 5-1 SU in their last 6 as a regular season underdog of 3.0 or less while averaging a massive 39.2 points scored per game. Their only SU loss in that sequence came when Kyler Murray hooked up with Deandre Hopkins on a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last playoff the game which enable Arizona to defeat Buffalo 34-32. Give me the Bills plus points as my NFL Top Play of the Week.

Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET

Game# 337-338

Play On: Maryland +9.0

#9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests.

Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points.

Bengals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: 49ers -5.0

Cincinnati is coming off a home favorite ATS 17-13 win over Seattle. Nevertheless, that Bengals win was a bit deceiving since they were outgained in the contest by a wide margin of 169 yards. It was more a result of Seattle failing miserably to cash in on their scoring opportunities more than anything else.

San Francisco started the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL while doing so. However, they’re coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses against Minnesota and Cleveland. NFL betting history has shown that teams like San Francisco in this exact situation have done very well. NFL home favorites of 3.0 or more that are coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses and their facing an opponent like Cincinnati who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game.

Wyoming @ Boise State 5:30 PM ET

Game# 163-164

Play On: Wyoming +5.0

Wyoming is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and won 2 of those contests straight up. The Cowboys will be well rested after having their last week off and after a game in which they gave nationally ranked Air Force (7-0) all they can handle in a 34-27 road loss while covering as a 12.5-point underdog. Wyoming is at a +6-turnover differential for the season and hasn’t turned the ball over during each of their previous 3 games. In my professional opinion, Boise State has been overvalued all season due to their winning tradition. This is another prime example of such. The Broncos have really struggled defensively over their previous 4 contests while allowing 31.0 points and 399.0 yards per game. Give me Wyoming plus points.

Dolphins @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Dolphins +3.0

Both teams enter this much anticipated matchup with stellar 5-1 (.833) records. Nevertheless, Miami was the more impressive of the 2 teams. Philadelphia has outscored their opponents by an average of 5.1 points and outgained them by 97.0 yards per game. Conversely, Miami has outscored opponents by an average of 11.2 points and outgained them by 155.0 yards per game. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season as they fell 20-14 on the road last Sunday at the New York Jets. Miami is coming off a 42-21 home win over Carolina.

Any non-division away team like Miami with a point-spread of between +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing after Game 4 and has a win percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive away games with the last of which being a SU loss by 6 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2018. Give me Miami plus points.

Colorado State @ UNLV 7:00 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: UNLV -7.0

UNLV is coming off a 45-27 win at Mountain West Conference rival Nevada and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. Conversely, Colorado State comes off a 31-30 upset win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. UNLV has been red-hot offensively over their last 4 contests while averaging 43.5 points scored and 466.5 yards gained per game. The Rebels are also a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. UNLV also is at an impressive +9 turnover differential while getting off to a stellar 5-1 start to the season. They’ll be facing a 2-3 Colorado State team which has allowed 38.0 points and 485.0 yards per game. The Rams have committed a concerning 11 turnovers through 5 games.

Any College Football conference home favorite of 23.0 or less that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 45 points or more, versus an opponent like Colorado State that’s coming off a conference home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Give me UNLV minus points.

Lions @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 267-268

Play On: Buccaneers +3.5

The Lions certainly received their fair share of preseason hype and thus far have lived up to expectations by going 4-1. However, Tampa Bay has quietly flown under the radar with a 3-1 record with their lone defeat coming at the hands of defending NFC champion Philadelphia.  The Bus are coming off their bye week and a convincing 26-9 win at New Orleans in their previous game. Throughout their first 4 games the Bucs are a +7 in turnover differential while the Lions are only +1 during their first 5 contests. I look for that to be a key factor in us getting the cover.

NFL home teams like Tampa Bay that are coming off an underdog SU win and both teams in the contest have win percentages of .750 or better, resulted in those home teams going 26-6 SU (85%) and 23-8-1 ATS since 1983.  If the home team was an underdog of between 2.0 and 4.0, they went 7-0 SU&ATS and won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers plus points.

Cowboys @ 49ers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Cowboys +4.0

Since 12/20/2020, Dallas has gone 5-0 SU&ATS as a regular season underdog of +3.0 to +5.5. The Cowboys even averaged 28.0 points scored per game during those upset wins. Dallas will also be playing with big time revenge after being eliminated in the playoffs by San Francisco in each of the last 2 years. The Cowboys are coming off an impressive 38-3 home win over the New England Patriots. The 49ers have begun the season 4-0 and scored 30 points or more on each occasion.

Any NFL away team like Dallas that’s coming off a win by 21 points or more in which they scored between 34 and 46 points, versus an opponent coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory during those 8 contests came by 10.0 points per game. Give me the Cowboys plus the points.

Alabama @ Texas A&M 3:30 PM ET

Game# 393-394

Play On: Texas A&M +1.5

Both teams come into this key SEC matchup with identical 4-1 records. Texas A&M is coming off last week's 34-22 neutral site win over Arkansas. Since losing at Miami, Texas A&M has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outgained their 3 opponents (UL-Monroe, Auburn, Arkansas) by an average of 259 yards per game. The Alabama offense has been far from explosive over their previous 3 games while average just 342.0 yards per contest which is well below their standards, they’ve established under head coach Nick Saban.

Since 2020, conference home teams after Game 4 that are coming off a conference win in which they scored 27 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 27-3 SU and 23-7 ATS. The SU results take on added significance in this case since it supports the underdog Texas A&M Aggies. 

Eagles @ Buccaneers 7:15 PM ET

Game# 477-478

Play On: Buccaneers +5.0

Both teams are off to 2-0 starts. However, I’ve been more impressed with Tampa Bay so far considering the low expectation level compared to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defeated New England 25-20 and Minnesota 34-28. Thos teams are a combined 0-4 to start the season. Yet, the Eagles defense allowed 300 yards or more passing in both wins. The Eagles have also been beneficiaries of 6 turnovers committed by those opponents.

Conversely, Tampa Bay didn’t commit a turnover during their 2-0 start while forcing its opponents into 5 giveaways.  Tampa is coming off a 27-17 home win over the Bears in which quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 317 yards.

Any NFL Game 3 home underdog that won each of their first 2 games, and their previous win came by 11 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2006. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Additionally, NFL Monday Night home underdogs of between 2.0 to 5.5-points that are coming off a SU&ATS win and are playing in the first 4 games of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS since 2006. The average margin of victory during those 6 contests came by 11.8 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers as my NFL Top Play of the Week.

BYU @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET

Game# 343-344

Play On: Kansas -9.5   

BYU (3-0) was able to pull off a 38-31 upset win at Arkansas last week as an 8.0-point underdog despite being outgained 424-281. During their only other game versus an FBS opponent that were listless in a 14-0 home win versus Sam Houston State and they were only able to amass a mere 257 yards in that contest.

Kansas (3-0) is coming off a flat sport last week in which they won 34-27 at Nevada but didn’t come close to covering as a 28.5-point favorite. However, I’m willing to pass since that game began at 9:30 PM ET Central Time and they were facing what was perceived to be a terrible Nevada team, and their Big 12 opener was up next versus BYU. I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back in a big way at home on Saturday.

Any College Football conference home favorite of 19.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win by 7 points or more in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they possess a season win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better and they’re coming off a SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average line in those 13 contests was 7.8 and the favorites won those contests by 21.6 points per game. Give me Kansas minus points for my Top Play of the Week.

Jets @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET

Game# 283-284

Play On: Cowboys -8.0

Dallas is coming off a 40-0 blowout road win over the Giants last Sunday night in a game their defense was dominant. The Jets defense will keep them in a game for a while. However, they’ll eventually wear down due to their offense not being able to sustain drives with any consistency.

Any NFL non-division home favorite of 8.0 to 16.0-points like Dallas that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS cover in which they scored 33 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent like the Jets who scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by a massive 25.6 points per game. Give me Dallas minus points.

Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET

Game# 175-176

Play On: Florida +6.5

Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112.

College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points.

Dolphins @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 473-474

Play On: Chargers -3.0

I think the Chargers are one of the biggest sleepers in an otherwise loaded AFC heading into the season. They possess high quality offensive skilled possession players and a defense that will be vastly improved. The Chargers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 season openers. Since 2021, Miami is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU on the road when there’s a total of 45.5 or greater.

Any NFL Game 1 home team with a point-spread ranging from 0.0 to -5.0 that won 10 games or more the season before, and they’re facing an opponent like Miami that won 8 or more games the season before, resulted in those home teams withing that point-spread parameter going 31-14 ATS (68.8%) since 1989. Those home teams also went 35-10 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Chargers minus points for my NFL Week 1 Top Play.

Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET

Game# 333-334

Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0

Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico.

Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points.

Cincinnati @ Buffalo 3:00 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*)

The Cincinnati Bengals have been a betting darling right now and are on a 9-game win streak. However, since the start of the 2011 NFL season, teams that are an underdog of 3.0 or greater that have won 8 of more games in a row have gone 0-7-1 ATS. The Bengals offensive line will be without 2 and possibly 3 starters on Sunday. Cincinnati was very fortunate to escape with a 24-17 home win over Baltimore in the Wildcard Round. They were outgained in that contest by a substantial margin 364-234 yards. If not for a game changing 98-yard fumble return with 10 minutes left with the game tied at 17, the Bengals were in line for a shocking early postseason exit.

Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami was extremely deceiving. The Bills outgained the Dolphins in that contest by a massive margin 423-231 yards. The Dolphins were afforded short fields by way of 2 interception returns and a punt return. Miami also scored a defensive touchdown on a strip sack fumble return. Buffalo has been a highly scrutinized team despite their 14-3 season record which includes a current 8-game win streak. As a matter of fact, they’re 3 losses came by just a combined 3-points. Yet, because of the preseason hype which publicized them as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Bills have been labeled by many as an overrated team. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games, and cover on both occasions that they were a favorite of 6.0 or less while winning by a enormous average of 22.0 points per game.

NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0 or less like Buffalo who are coming off a home favorite SU win in which they failed to cover, and there’s a total of 40.0 or greater, versus an opponent like Cincinnati who has a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 5 contests came by an average of 20.0 points per game, and they covered those outings by an average of 16.1 points per occurrence.

Give me Buffalo minus the points.

Detroit @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET

Game# 459-460

Play On: Green Bay -4.5 (10*)

Detroit does come in having gone a red-hot 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. However, their defense has horrible against the run over the last 2 games while allowing a combined 520 yards rushing and a massive 8.0 yards per attempt. They will be up against it again against a the superb running back due of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Let’s start with the regular season home record of Green Bay. Since the beginning of the NFL 2019-2020 season, the Packers have gone an outstanding 27-4 SU (.871)  and 21-10 ATS (68%) in regular season home games. Furthermore, Green Bay is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 NFC North Division home games. The average line in those games was -9.4 and they won by 19.5 points per contest. Green Bay will be playing with revenge from an earlier season 15-9 loss at Detroit in a game they outgained the Lions by a decisive 135 yards, and only to be victimized by 3 Aaron Rogers interceptions. That’s highly unlikely to occur again. Green Bay enters this regular season finale having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and in a position to guarantee an NFC Wildcard Playoff spot with a win over their division rival.

Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or less like Green Bay that’s playing in their final regular season finale, and they’ve won 4 or more games in a row, and they covered their previous contest against a division foe while doing so by 7.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorites of 7.0 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average point spread in those 6 contests was 5.0 and there was an substantial average victory margin of 23.2 points per game.

Give me Green Bay minus the points.

Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 127-128

Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*)

The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games.

Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit.

NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game.

Give me Green Bay minus the points.

Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET

Game# 319-320

Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*)

Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins.

The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings.

Give me Carolina minus the points.

Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*)

This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses.

Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC.

Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*)

Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games.

NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game.

Give me the 49ers minus the points.

Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*)

Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game.

Give me the 49ers minus the points.

Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET

Game# 309-310

Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*)

These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession.

Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year.

Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*)

Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog.

Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 125-126

Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*)

You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts.

Give me Oregon State plus the points.

Game# 107-108

Play On: Dallas -10.0 (10*)

Both teams are 7-3 but that’s where the similarity ends. Dallas is a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl and is getting better each week as the season has progressed. The Giants have been a nice story as they’ve vastly overachieved and the statistical numbers and analytic convincingly support those statements.

Dallas is coming off a 40-3 win at Minnesota (8-2). While the Giants come off a home favorite SU loss to Detroit (4-6). NFL home favorites of 6.5 to 12 after Game 4 and are coming off an away win by 23 or more in which it scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponent (Giants) who is coming off a home favorite SU loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin came by 22.0 points per game.

Browns @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Browns +4.0 (10*)

Miami is currently on a 3-game win streak. However, those 3 victories came against Pittsburgh (2-6), Detroit (2-6), and Chicago (3-6) who have a combined season record of 7-18 (.280). Furthermore, all 3 of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. During their previous game which resulted in a 35-32 win at Chicago, they allowed the Bears to rush for 252 yards and an alarmingly high average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Miami will be facing Cleveland’s #3 rushing offense in the NFL that averages 164.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.0 yards per attempt. The only teams that rank higher than Cleveland in that department are the Bears and Ravens, and both have extremely mobile quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) who have combined to rush for 1237 yards thus far this season. So, we can make a strong case that the Dolphins defense will be facing the best conventional rushing attack in the NFL.

Cleveland is just 3-5 this season. However, 4 of their 5 losses came by just a combined 9 points. With a little bit of luck, they very easily could be 7-1. My point being, the Browns are a much better team than their record indicates. They’ll also enter this contest off a momentum building 32-13 home win over the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and did so as a 3.0-point home underdog. Additionally, the Browns are coming off their bye week while Miami played last Sunday. The Browns will be able to run the ball with a high degree of success and in turn dominate time of possession. Hence, limiting an explosive Dolphins offense in terms of number of possessions. By the way, Cleveland has gone 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5 or greater and won 3 of those 7 contests straight up. Their 4 SU losses in that situation all came by 5 points or fewer.

Give me the Browns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

TCU @ Texas 7:30 PM ET

Game# 199-200

Play On: Texas -7.0 (10*)

I have preached to whomever will listen, “think like an oddsmaker”. By doing so, you will have a huge edge when compared with many sports bettors in terms of your ability to pick winners.

If the season were to end today, the unbeaten 9-0 TCU Horned Frogs would be the #4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus a Texas team which enters this matchup with just a 6-3 record. It’s worth noting, despite their 9-0 record, TCU has won 6 of its last 7 by 10 points or fewer. The sportsbooks thrive off bettors who make which are perceived to be obvious picks, and they will again after this contest goes final as well.

College Football conference home favorites of between 2.5 to 10.0 (Texas) who have a win percentage of .875 or less, facing an undefeated team (TCU) that’s playing after Game 7 and they’re coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0-1 ATS and 14-0 SU since 1983. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by 15.6 points per contest.

Give me Texas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET

Game# 403-404

Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*)

This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time.

Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week.

San Francisco @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*)

The Rams are coming off a bye week and were a 24-10 home winner over Carolina in their previous game. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 44-23 home loss to Kansas City which dropped their season record to a disappointing 3-4.

NFL home teams (Rams) off a home win by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 21 points or greater (49ers) and they have a losing season record, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 1984. The average margin of victory in those 21 contests came by 11.0 points per game. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the current 1.0-point underdog LA Rams.

Give me the LA Rams for a 10* Top Play.

Louisville @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET

Game# 137-138

Play On: Louisville +3.5 (10*)

Wake Forest is coming off a 48-15 conference win at home over Boston College which improved their season record to 6-1.

Louisville is coming off conference wins in each of their last 2 games and both came by double-digit margins. That improved their season record to 4-3. The Cardinals are showing positive signs regarding finishing this season strong. During their previous 4 games, Louisville is at an excellent +8 turnover margin and forced 13 turnovers by opponents. The Cardinals are just 15-13 SU in their last 21 at home, but that fits perfectly into the betting angle displayed below.

Since 2018, college football home teams (Louisville) with a winning record that are +10.0 to -10.0 and are coming off back-to-back conference wins in which they allowed 33 points or fewer on each occasion, and they’ve won 23 or less of its previous 28 at home, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) with at least 1 loss on the season and coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 14 contests came by 17.1 points per game.

Give me Louisville plus the points.

Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*)

Indianapolis is coming off 2 straight wins but there were red flags to take into consideration moving forward. The Colts allowed an average of 184.0 yards rushing per game in those 2 wins, and that doesn’t bode well for this matchup since they’ll be facing a great running back in Derrick Henry.

Tennessee is coming off a bye week and that’s a noteworthy from a betting perspective. Since Mike Vrabel has been their head coach, the Titans have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a bye week, and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.5 points per contest. Tennessee has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Indianapolis and that includes a 24-17 road victory on just 3 weeks ago. The Titans were a 21-17 winner at Washington in their previous game and that made them 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3.

Since 2014, NFL teams (Titans) with a point-spread ranging from +2.5 to -3.0 with a win percentage of .510 to .600 that’s coming off a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .571 to .750, resulted in those teams going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was 13.1 points per game.

Give me Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Minnesota @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 409-410

Play On: Minnesota +5.0 (10*)

Michigan exposed a huge weakness in the Penn State run defense last week while rushing for 418 yards including 7.6 yards per attempt.  Minnesota will present them with similar challenges in attempting to stop the run. The Golden Gophers offensive rushing game has amassed 240 yards or more in 4 of 6 contests this season. Minnesota will get back on track in this one and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the game outright.

We won’t get greedy. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Cowboys @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Eagles -6.0 (10*)

Dallas is coming off a 22-10 road win over the Rams. The Eagles are coming off a 20-17 win over Arizona and failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. That victory improved the Eagles record to a perfect 6-0. Philadelphia has now gone 16-16 SU in their last 32 games played.

NFL home favorites of between 5.5 to 12.0 with a win percentage of better than .600 playing after Game 5 of the season, and they’re coming off an away win in which they scored 13 or more and allowed 24 or less and failed to cover, and they’ve won 24 or fewer of their last 32 games played versus an opponent who scored 31 or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those 17 contests came by an enormous 22.2 points per game.

Give me the Eagles minus the points.

Nebraska @ Purdue 7:30 ET

Game# 145-146

Play On: Purdue -14.0 (10*)

Nebraska started 1-3 but has bounced back to win their last 2 over Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t get carried away Cornhuskers fans as those 2 teams have combined to go 1-5 in Big 10 Conference play. This is the same Nebraska team that lost 49-14 to Oklahoma. Since then, Oklahoma lost its next 3 and were outscored by an average of 29.0 points per game. They also lost to Georgia Southern at home in a game they were a 23.5-point favorite and versus Northwestern in the Big 10 opener and once again as a double-digit favorite.

Purdue is 4-2 on the season and is arguably one of the best 2-loss teams in the country. Their only losses came to #18 Syracuse (5-0) and #10 Penn State (5-0). As a matter of fact, those 2 defeats came by a combined 6 points. The Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back SU road underdog wins at Minnesota (4-1) and Maryland 4-2). Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than Nebraska at this point. The Boilermakers are much better than their record indicates, and they will make sure that’s known in this contest.

Give me Purdue minus the points.

Bengals @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET

Game# 477-478

Play On: Bengals +3.5 (10*)

Baltimore is a mentality fragile team right now. They’re 0-2 at home this season while blowing leads of 17 versus Buffalo and 21 points against Miami in doing so. This will be their first meeting with Cincinnati this season after losing twice versus the Bengals last year by scores of 41-21 and 41-17. The Ravens defense has looked vulnerable in 3 of their 4 games this season and I look for Cincinnati’s offense to expose them once again.

After starting the season with a pair of narrow 3-point losses, Cincinnati has roared back with 2 straight wins and covered both of those contests as a favorite. It worth noting the obvious of Cincinnati having 3 days more rest than Baltimore heading into this matchup. This is a Bengals team that’s also gone an extremely profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS during its last 15 away games. That includes 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU if they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests.

Any NFL division road underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in Games 3 through 8, and is playing an opponent (Ravens) who will be playing with double revenge, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2009. Now only did the away dogs cover all 12 contests but they won all of them SU by an average of 11.0-points per game. Give me the Bengals plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET

Game# 367-368

Play On: USC -12.5 (10*)

This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt.  During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon.

Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons.

Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game.

Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*)

I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat.

Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game.

NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests.

Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 123-124

Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*)

Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College.

Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task.

Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner.

Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*)

Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it.

By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite.

Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month.

San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET

Game# 487-488

Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*)

Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week.

NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play.

USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*)

Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*)

Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game.

Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest.

Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play.

NY Giants @ Tennessee 4:25 PM ET

Game# 477-478

Play On: NY Giants +5.5 (10*)

Tennessee has won 11 or more games in each of their previous 3 season. As a matter of fact, they were the AFC #1 seed last year entering the playoffs after recording a 12-5 regular season record. Nonetheless, their regular season win total over or under has dropped to 8.5. That speaks volumes to me regarding how the oddsmakers project the Titans to be a mediocre team at best.

The Giants begin the Brian Daboll head coaching era on the road and as an underdog at Tennessee. Daboll inherits a team that went a poor 4-13 a season ago. As a matter of fact, since 2018, the Giants have gone a combined 19-46 and never won more than 6 games in a season. However, New York has gone an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an away underdog of 6.5 or less during that same time span.

Any NFL Week 1 away underdog of 6.5 or less (Giants) who won 6 games or fewer in the previous season, resulted in those away underdogs going 45-13 (77.6%) since 2000. Give me the NY Giants plus the points for a 10* Top Play.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET

Game# 347-348

Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*)

Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater.

Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave.

Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.

Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET

Game# 183-184

Play On: Army +2.5 (10*)

Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them.

Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play.

LA Rams vs. Cincinnati 6:30 PM ET

Game# 101-102

Play On: LA Rams -4.0 (10*)

Cincinnati allowed 55 sacks of their quarterbacks during regular season action. Only Baltimore and Chicago were worse in that statistical category. Conversely, the Rams defense amassed 50 sacks during regular season which was 3rd best among all NFL teams. The Bengals have allowed 12 more sacks in the postseason, and it includes 9 during their upset win at Tennessee.

Cincinnati has rushed for less than 100 yards in all 3 postseason games. On the other hand, Los Angeles has limited their 3 postseason opponents to 61 yards or fewer rushing and permitted a mere 3.1 yards per carry.

The Rams are coming off a win over bitter division rival San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the Rams are 15-4 SU&ATS immediately following a division game and includes 7-1 SU&ATS if they played at home. The Rams enter the Super Bowl having won 8 of its last 9 games. Their only loss during that stretch came by 3 to San Francisco in a game they squandered a 17-point lead.

The Los Angeles running game is much better than their season statistics indicate. They were without star running back Cam Ackers until their regular season finale. Their passing game has been dynamic this season and ranked #5 during NFL regular season action while amassing 273.1 yards per game. They’ll be facing a Cincinnati defense which was 26th against the pass in allowing 248.1 yards per contest.

This is a bad matchup for Cincinnati on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati won’t be able to sustain a consistent running game against a stout Rams defense. Furthermore, the Bengals offensive line will struggle mightily in protecting Joe Burrow. That’s not a winning formula by any stretch of the imagination. Give me the LA Rams minus the points.

Buffalo @ Kansas City 6:30 PM ET

Game# 317-318

Play On: Buffalo +2.5 (10*)

So, the Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, the higher seed in this matchup, but they’re just a 1.5-point home favorite. The oddsmakers and early sharp money are huge indicators as to who the right side in this contest. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot Chiefs at this small of a number. Granted Kansas City has been exceptional in the 2nd half of the regular season and into the playoffs. However, Buffalo is currently on a 5-game win streak and held those opponents to 15.4 points and 237.2 yards per contest. By the way, the Chiefs have accumulated 378 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 5 games. Nonetheless, Kansas City is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS at home immediately following 4 straight games in which they had 375 yards or more of total offense.

The Bills outgained New England by a massive margin of 177 yards during their 47-17 home blowout win last Saturday. Since the start of the 2019-202 season, Buffalo is 8-0 SU on the road following a game in which they outgained their opponent by 100 yards or more and had a decisive average victory margin of 18.4 points per contest. The Bills are one of just a few NFL teams that can match Kansas City’s offensive explosiveness. Bet Buffalo for a Top Play wager.

Cincinnati @ Tennessee 4:30 PM ET

Game# 301-302

Play On: Cincinnati +3.5 (10*)

Tennessee star running back Derrick Henry returns from injury after missing 9 games. However, it’s unlikely he will be given a heavy workload after that long hiatus. The Titans went only 4-3 SU in their last 7 games and included a home loss to lowly Houston. The Titans have allowed 280 yards or more passing 8 times this season. This has been an area of concern for 2 years now, and against a talented young quarterback (Joe Burrow) and group of receivers that Cincinnati possesses, there’s a good chance they’ll be further exposed. Cincinnati has gone 5-2 SU this season versus teams that made the playoffs, and their lone 2 losses came in overtime against Green Bay and San Francisco. Give me Cincinnati plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Cardinals @ Rams 8:15 PM ET

Game# 151-152

Play On: Cardinals +4.0 (10*)

The Cardinals finished the regular season by losing 4 of its last 5 games. However, Arizona was a terrific 8-1 SU&ATS on the road this season and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. It’s not like they feasted on a bunch of creampuffs. The Cardinals defeated 4 teams that qualified for the playoffs on the road in Dallas, LA Rams, Tennessee, and San Francisco. Conversely, the Rams went just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS at home this season. Furthermore, Los Angeles was a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home versus teams that finished regular season action with a winning record. The road teams won and covered both games between these division rivals this season. Bet Arizona plus the points.

San Francisco @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET

Game# 147-148

Play On: San Francisco +3.0 (10*)

Dallas (13-5) is the NFC East champion and finished the regular season going 5-1 SU&ATS in their final 6 regular season contests. Yet, they opened and remain just a 3.0-point favorite versus an opponent that needed to overcome a 17-3 halftime deficit in their final regular season game just to qualify for the postseason. Since 2019, Dallas has gone 4-11 SU and 3-12 ATS when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0.

The 49ers have been chasing the Rams and Cardinals all season when it comes to the NFC West standing and it became clear their only path to the postseason was a wildcard berth. So, they’ve been in win or go home mode over the final few weeks of regular season action. I look for that to pay dividends in this contest. Furthermore, the 49ers have been better on the road than at home this season. San Francisco is 7-2 SU in away games. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the 49ers are 4-1 SU&ATS in away games when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. Bet the 49ers plus the points for a Top Play wager.

New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET

Game# 143-144

Play On: Buffalo -4.5 (10*)

Buffalo has scored 27 points or more in each of their last 5 games. Since Sean McDermott has taken over as head coach in Buffalo, the Bills are an unbeaten 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS at home after scoring 25 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2009, Wildcard Round teams that win straight up have gone 47-8 ATS (85.4%). Do you see where I am going with this? I hope so.

Since Bill Belichick took over as head coach in New England, his Patriots team have gone 36-8 versus Buffalo. However, since the start of last season which coincides with the departure of Tom Brady, New England is 1-3 SU&ATS versus Buffalo. Furthermore, heading into Week 15 of this season, New England held a comfortable 2.0 game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East standings. Then they lost 3 of their last 4 while Buffalo put together a 4-game win streak. One of those defeats was a 33-21 home setback to Buffalo in a game they were outgained 448-288. They will be playing against a Buffalo defense that’s allowed 15 points or fewer and 275 yards or less in each of their last 4 at home. Many people will jump all over a Bill Belichick coached New England team as a playoff underdog. I’m not one of them. Give me Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Georgia vs. Alabama 8:27 PM ET

Game# 287-288

Play On: Georgia -2.5 (10*)

These teams squared off just 5 weeks ago in the SEC Championship game and Alabama won 41-24 as a 6.0-point underdog. The Crimson Tide offense racked up 536 yards versus the vaunted Georgia defense which included a huge day from Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Young who threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Despite that convincing win, Alabama is currently a 2.5-point underdog, and the public is betting on Alabama like it’s found money on their doorsteps.

Even with that poor performance versus Alabama, Georgia’s defense still ranks #1 nationally in points allowed (9.5 PPG) and #2 in yards allowed (254.4 YPG). This elite stop unit was embarrassed versus Alabama and look for them to come up with a huge effort tonight. The Georgia defense has received a plethora of accolades all season and rightfully so. However, Georgia’s offense has quietly averaged a quite impressive 46.6 points scored, and 486.5 yards gained per game over its last 6 contests. That includes racking up 449 yards in the loss to Alabama.

The first time these teams met Georgia entered that contest 12-0 and was 99.9% sure that even with a loss they were going to be in the 4-team College Football Playoffs. Conversely, Alabama didn’t have that same luxury since they already had 1 loss on their regular season resume and it was highly improbable they would be part of the 4-team field as a 2-loss team. As a result, the Crimson Tide played with a far higher degree of urgency and desperation than Georgia displayed. I’m betting on Georgia to turn the table on their SEC rival. Lastly, Georgia has lost their last 7 meetings with Alabama, and yet here they are still a favorite in a National Championship Game. Alabama in this matchup. Bet Georgia minus the small number.

Chargers @ Raiders 8:20 PM ET

Game# 481-482

Play On: Raiders +3.0 (10*)

Whoever wins this game will be in the postseason parade and the loser won’t be a participant. The Chargers are coming off a 34-13 home win over Denver. Nevertheless, the Chargers are 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a win. Additionally, they’re 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games when they’re +3.0 to -3.0 and are coming off a win and were outscored by 12.7 points per contest. The Chargers have scored 28 points or more in each of their last 5 games. However, throughout their previous 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 29.3 points and 417.3 yards per game. Moreover, since 2019, the Chargers are 0-6 SU on the road following a game in which they scored 30 points or more and lost by an average of 10.0 points per game.

The Raiders are coming off a huge win at Indianapolis last Sunday which extended their unbeaten streak to 3 games. What’s eye catching to me is they won those 3 games despite being having a combined turnover margin of -7. What’s been their main catalyst is a defense that allowed 15.7 points and 218.7 yards per game during this current win streak. Las Vegas will also be out to revenge a 28-14 road loss to the Chargers earlier this season. I look for the Raiders to come up with a huge effort on Sunday night and give their newly ordained city of Las Vegas a taste of playoff football for a first time. Bet the Raiders plus the points.

Broncos @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 121-122

Play On: Chargers -7.5 (10*)

These teams met just 5 weeks in Denver and the Broncos walked away with an easy 28-10 win. Yet, the oddsmakers weren’t deterred by that result based in this current point-spread. Additionally, Denver is coming off a pir of deflating losses 15-10 versus Cleveland and 17-13 to Las Vegas. That really put a dent into their postseason hopes and their overall confidence level.

Los Angeles is also coming off losses to Houston 41-29 as a 13.0-point road favorite and in overtime to Kansas City. As a result, the Chargers are on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in with an 8-7 record. The Chargers will be facing a Denver team which has struggled to score at times this season. As a matter of fact, Denver has scored 13 points or fewer in 6 of their last 12 games. That hasn’t been the Chargers problem of late. During their last 4 outings, Los Angeles has averaged 33.8 points scored and 407.8 yards gained per game.

NFL betting history show that teams like the Chargers in this exact situation have passed the test with flying colors. Any division favorite of 4.5 or greater that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a non-division straight up favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 16-0 ATS since 1985. Furthermore, they won those contests by an enormous 20.3 points per game and their average line was -7.2. Bet the Chargers minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Utah vs. Ohio State 5:00 PM ET

Game# 281-282

Play On: Utah +4.0 (10*)

Ohio State had the much higher aspirations this season of winning a national championship compared to Utah. Nevertheless, they failed to even reach the Big 10 Championship Game and were dominated in a 42-27 loss to Michigan during their regular season finale. The Buckeyes will be missing their top 2 wide receivers in this contest who combined to score 25 touchdowns and amass just shy of 2000 receiving yards this season.

Utah has won its first ever PAC-12 Championship in football and will be making their Rose Bowl debut. There’s no doubt in my mind they’ll have an emotional edge in this game as a result. Not to mention, Utah enters this contest on a 6-game win streak which included a pair of blowout wins over #15 Oregon. All 3 Utah losses this season have come by single-digit margins. Bet Utah plus the points for my “Bowl Game of the Year”.

Georgia vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET

Game# 269-270

Play On: Georgia -7.5 (10*)

Michigan has been a nice story this season in a year that head coach Jim Harbaugh entered on the proverbial hot seat. The former Wolverines quarterback has his team peaking at the right time. Here’s where the issue for me comes in with regards to backing Michigan. The Wolverines have run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays this season and they’ll be facing a Georgia defense which allows just 82.2 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs stop units is also tied for 4th nationally with 42 sacks.

Georgia was embarrassed in their 41-24 SEC Championship Game loss to Alabama. Nevertheless, I’m willing to give them a pass since win or lose they 100% knew a college football playoff invitation awaited. Georgia was a 6.0-point favorite in that defeat. The good news, Georgia is 4-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they failed to cover. They won those 4 contests by a substantial average of 39.5 points per game. The Alabama game was the first time all season that Georgia allowed more than 17 points. The Bulldogs defense has received much acclaim this season and rightfully so. But don’t sleep on the Georgia offense which scored 41 points or more in 4 of their last 5 and collected 449 yards or greater on each occasion. Bet Georgia minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Pittsburgh +3.5 (10*)

Both teams will be without their top offensive player. Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett is a potential 1st round draft choice who opted out for risk of injury. All Picket did this season was throw for 4319 yards and 42 touchdowns. Michigan State will be without star running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker rushed for 1646 yards and 18 touchdowns this season while averaging a lofty 6.2 yards per carry.

It comes down to this for me when handicapping this game. Which difference can make the difference between winning and losing? The answer to this then becomes simple. I unequivocally trust Pitt’s defense more than that of today’s opponent. Pitt is #40 in total defense, #6 in rush defense, and #2 in sacks nationally. Conversely, Michigan State is #117 out of 130 college football FBS teams in total defense and dead last in pass yards allowed. Bet Pittsburgh plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Iowa State vs. Clemson 5:45 PM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Iowa State +2.5 (10*)

#19 Clemson (9-3) and enters this Cheez-It Bowl on a 5-game win streak. Yet, they’re less than a field goal favorite versus unranked Iowa State (7-5). That’s all I need to know and especially considering that Iowa State opened as a favorite in this matchup. Iowa State will be without star running back Breece Hall who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. However, they still have 4-year starting quarterback Brock Purdy who will be playing his final game in a Cyclones uniform. Bet on Iowa State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Green Bay @ Baltimore 4:25 PM ET

Game# 315-316

Play On: Baltimore +7.0

I like the Ravens with or without Lamar Jackson. I assume at +7.0 it will be Tyler Huntley at quarterback. If Lamar gets the green light and get medical clearance on his injured ankle, then we aren’t going to be getting 7.0 points it will be more like 3.5 or 4.0 and that’s still fine. Tyler Huntley has accounted himself well when called upon this season. He was the starter in place of the injured Jackson at Chicago when the Ravens walked away with a 16-13 win. Last week, he just came up short of rallying Baltimore from a 24-6 halftime deficit at Cleveland, but the Ravens fell 24-22. Baltimore has gone 4-0 in non-division home games this season which includes wins Kansas City (10-3), LA Chargers (8-5), Indianapolis (7-6), and the best 6-7 team in years the Minnesota Vikings. Baltimore has gone 8-0 SU&ATS during the last 4 weeks of regular season action over the last 2 years and won by a decisive margin of 17.8 points per game. Additionally, since 2019, Baltimore is a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog and won by an average of 12.0 points per game.

All 3 losses by Green Bay this season were sustained away from Lambeau Field. They also escaped with narrow road wins by 3 in overtime versus Cincinnati, by 3 over Arizona, and 2 against San Francisco. It’s inevitable that Green Bay will win the NFC North and that may transpire as soon as the Vikings and Bears Monday night game goes final. I just firmly believe that a Jim Harbaugh coached Ravens team will be difficult for Green Bay to pull away from regardless of the adversity they may be facing. Bet Baltimore plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.

Oregon State @ Utah State 7:30 PM ET

Game# 215-216

Play On: Oregon State -7.0 (10*)

Utah State crushed San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game 46-13 in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. The Aggies enter this Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl having won 7 of their last 8 yet find themselves as a touchdown underdog versus a 7-5 Oregon State team. This is one of those situations where I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more than what may appear to be obvious underdog betting value. As opposed to most Power 5 Conference teams playing opponents from the Group of 6 Conferences, Oregon State is delighted to be playing in a bowl game and will be plenty motivated. Especially when considering that Oregon State went a dismal 10-32 during the previous 4 seasons. Bet Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois 6:00 PM ET

Game# 203-204

Play On: Coastal Carolina -10.5 (10*)

Northern Illinois is the MAC Champion that comes into this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando Florida with a 9-4 record. However, they allowed 40 points or more in each of their 4 losses and were outgained by an average of 26.1 yards per game. Conversely, Coastal Carolina averaged 40.4 points scored per game and outgained their opponents by an average of 166.3 yards per contest. They will be facing a Northern Illinois defense that’s allowed 32.7 points per game this season. Since the start of last season, Coastal Carolina has gone a dominating 8-0 SU&ATS when facing an opponent that allows 31.0 or more points per game and they won by a decisive margin of 20.7 points per contest. Lastly, although Coastal Carolina didn’t reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game despite an outstanding 10-2 record, their 2 losses came by just a combined 5 points. They were that close to going undefeated. Bet Coastal Carolina minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Raiders @ Chiefs 1:00 PM ET

Game# 105-106

Play On: Chiefs -9.5 (10*)

After starting the season 5-2, the Raiders have gone on to lose 4 of its last 5 games. Las Vegas scored 16 points or fewer in all 4 of those defeats.

Kansas City enters this week on a 5-game win streak in addition to covering each of its last 3. It’s the Chiefs defense and not their offense that has been the catalyst throughout those 5 Kansas City wins. Furthermore, and since 2019, the Chiefs are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in their previous 2 contests while winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. Lastly, Kansas City walloped the Raiders during their earlier season meeting in Las Vegas by a final score of 41-14. The Chiefs had a huge total offense yards edge of 516-299. Bet the Chiefs minus the points for a Top Play wager.

New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET

Game# 475-476

Play On: Buffalo -2.5 (-122) (10*)

New England has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games and enters this contest the hottest team in the NFL. Additionally, the Patriots have gone 5-0 on the road this season. Yet, here they are as a road underdog versus a Bills team that’s just 3-3 in their last 6 games. Like I said on many occasions, it’s rarely that east when it comes to sports betting and tonight’s game will be a prime example of such. It also must be noted, 4 of the 5 road wins by New England have come over teams that currently have a losing record in the Jets (3-9), Texans (2-10), Panthers (5-7), and Falcons (5-7). The lone exception was their win at the Chargers (7-5). New England is coming off a 36-13 home win over Tennessee last Sunday. However, that final score is a bit deceiving since they only were able to

Buffalo is coming off a 31-6 blowout win at New Orleans in a game they held the Saints to a mere 146 passing yards. Since 2019, Buffalo is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards and includes 4-0 SU&ATS (+16.2 PPG) at home. Furthermore, since 2019, Buffalo is 5-0 SU at home following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer and they won by an average of 13.8 points per contest.

Kudos to the New England Patriots and future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick for the masterful job he’s done so far this season. Nonetheless, Buffalo is the better team in this matchup and they’ll make a huge statement tonight to fulfill that statement. Bet Buffalo minus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Denver @ Kansas City 8:20 ET

Game# 457-458

Play On: Kansas City -9.5 (10*)

The public has jumped all over Denver to cover this contest as of this writing. Nonetheless, I’m here to tell you they’re dead wrong. Yes, I know the Chiefs have been a terrible play on as a home favorite this season and last. I also know Denver is coming off an impressive 28-13 home win over the Chargers and recently blew out Dallas in Arlington. It doesn’t matter, because I don’t see this as a favorable betting situation for the sizable road underdog.

The Chiefs seemed to sleepwalk through the first half of the season and frankly looked uninspired. However, Kansas City has recently caught fire and enter this week on a 4-game win streak. The most encouraging part of that successful run was the play of their defensive unit. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 11.7 points and 294.0 yards per game while also forcing 8 turnovers. Furthermore, they’ve owned the Broncos in recent seasons while going 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS against them. Lastly, Kansas City is just 1.0 game ahead of Denver in the standings, yet they are more than a touchdown favorite. It sure feels like the sportsbooks are baiting to take the road underdog. Thanks, but no thanks. Bet on Kansas City minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Iowa vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET

Game# 321-322

Play On: Michigan -10.5 (10*)

Give a lot of credit to Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz and his staff for getting Iowa to the Big 12 Championship game despite some glaring offensive weaknesses. Case in point, the Hawkeyes averaged just 20.7 points per game in their final 7 Big 10 Conference games. Unquestionably the Hawkeyes defense has been the catalyst to a successful 10-2 regular season campaign. Nonetheless, Michigan’s defense has been superb as well. The Wolverines are #14 nationally in total defense and #8 in scoring while allowing only 17.2 points per contest. Conversely, Iowa is 123rd out of 130 Division 1 teams in total offense at only 299.3 yards per game. The defenses comparisons are a wash since both units are elite. The telling difference in us covering this spread will be Michigan’s offense which is #20 nationally in total yards. The Wolverines offense is especially difficult to defend since their yards gained between run and pass are almost identical. Bet Michigan minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Buffalo @ New Orleans 8:20 PM ET

Game# 109-110

Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*)

Buffalo will look to rebound from a humiliating and humbling 41-15 home blowout loss to the Colts. However, the Bills have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and win by a decisive margin of 26.0 points per game. So before you start digging a grave for the Bills you should definitely reconsider. Since 2019, Buffalo has gone 15-6 SU and 14-6-1 ATS during regular season away games under current head coach Sean McDermott. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite of 7.0 or less and after Game 6 of the season with an average victory margin of 25.0 points per game. 

New Orleans has been a profitable home underdog under head coach Sean Payton. But most of those occurrences happened with future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees under center and not this year’s backup Trevor Simien. The Saints may also be without star running back Alvin Kamara who is recovering from a knee injury. Bet Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Cincinnati @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Las Vegas +1.0 (10*)

Las Vegas is coming off a disheartening 41-13 home underdog loss to Kansas City. That loss dropped their season record to 5-4. They will be facing a Cincinnati team that’s coming off 2 straight losses in which they allowed 37.5 points and 436.0 yards per game. I looked for the Raiders to bounce back in a big way off such a disappointing effort displayed last Sunday.

Since 1984, any home team with a point-spread of -2.5 to +5.0 that’s coming off a home underdog ATS loss, and they have a winning record, and they’re facing a non-division opponent, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average home team point-spread was +1.2 and they won by 9.7 points per game. Bet Las Vegas for my NFL Game of the Month.

Oregon @ Utah 7:30 PM ET

Game# 371-372

Play On: Utah -3.0 (10*)

The #3 Oregon Ducks find themselves as an underdog against #24 Utah and I believe for good reason. After starting 1-2, Utah has won 6 of its last 7. The Utes are also a perfect 4-0 at home where they’ve outscored their opponents by 17.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’re 17-1 in their last 18 played in Salt Lake City. The Utes offense has been red-hot while scoring 34 points or more in each of their last 6 games. During that stretch, the Utes have only committed 3 turnovers and gained 455 yards or more in each of those contests. The Oregon offense took a huge hit when star running back C.J. Verdell went down for the season. That will catch up to them in this spot while playing in a hostile environment. Bet Utah minus the points.

Purdue @ Ohio State 3:30 PM ET

Game# 199-200

Play On: Ohio State -20.5 (10*)

Purdue is coming off last week’s shocking 40-29 upset win over then #3 Michigan State. The Boilermakers also pulled off a similar type upset earlier this season over then #2 and undefeated Iowa. Nevertheless. They enter this game against the #4 Buckeyes as a 3-touchdown underdog. Purdue has been solid defensively this season. However, they will have their hands full against a balanced Ohio State offense that is averaging 44.9 points and 541.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes will make a statement in this one against #19 Purdue and solidify their position within the top 4 college football playoff spots. Bet Ohio State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Chargers @ Eagles 4:05 PM ET

Game# 467-468

Play On: Eagles +1.5 (10*)

You may be surprised to know that the Chargers are dead last in the NFL at stopping the run. They rank #32 in rushing yards allowed per game (159.6) and #32 at rush yards allowed per attempt (5.1). Furthermore, over their last 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 186.0 yards rushing per game and that alone was a major contributing factor to them entering this week on a 2-game losing streak.

Philadelphia should be able to the run the ball with a huge amount of success, not only because their opponent is inept stopping it, but because they’ve had some degree of success in doing so up until now. The Eagles are coming off a 44-6 blowout win over Detroit last week and amassed 236 rushing years. The Eagles enter this week #7 in offensive rushing yards per game (131.7) and #4 in yards per rushing attempts (5.0).

Any NFL home team (Eagles) with a win percentage of .333 or better, coming off a road win by 23 points or more, versus an opponent (Chargers) coming off a home game where both teams scored 24 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 33-2 SU (94.2%) since 1983. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance when considering the current point-spread. Bet the Eagles for a Top Play wager.

Mississippi State @ Arkansas 4:00 PM ET

Game# 375-376

Play On: Arkansas -4.0 (10*)

Mississippi State is coming off last Saturday’s home win over nationally ranked Kentucky. That victory was key in the Bulldogs being ranked #17 in the first college football playoff poll. Yet they’re an underdog against an Arkansas team that failed to crack the Top 25 in that very same poll, and with an identical 5-3 record as they possess. Arkansas is also coming off a bye week which is always an advantage when facing an unrested opponent at this point of the season.

Both teams defenses are solid. Mississippi State has passed on an enormous 72.4% of their offensive snaps this season. Conversely, Arkansas has run the ball on 65.7% of their offensive snaps this season. However, the Razorbacks still average over 200 passing yards per game and extremely impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The defenses will cancel each other out, Arkansas is unequivocally the more balanced offensive team. That will be the key to us attaining a successful cover. Bet Arkansas minus the points for my SEC Game of the Year.

Dallas @ Minnesota 8:20 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (10*)

As per usual, Dallas is certain to attract a sizable amount of support from a betting perspective in this contest. They enter this stand alone nationally televised primetime game on a 5-0 SU&ATS streak while outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per contest. Yet, here they are as a 3.0-point underdog versus a 3-3 Minnesota team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog and I’m not falling for the trap. Additionally, since 2019, Dallas is 0-6 SU&ATS coming off a win and when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0 and lost by an average of 11.8 points per game. This is still a porous Dallas defense in my opinion. They’re allowing 24.3 points and 381.2 yards per game. Those defensive numbers could be even worse if not for the fact they’ve forced 14 turnovers in their first 6 games. They’ll be facing a Minnesota team that have averaged less than 1 turnover committed per game.

Minnesota is one of just a few teams that can come close to matching the Cowboys offensive explosiveness. The Vikings are 5th in the NFL when it comes to total offense at 414.2 yards gained per game. The Vikings 3 losses have come against Arizona, Cleveland, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 16-5. Furthermore, those 3 defeats came by a combined 11 points. The Vikings are much better than their 3-3 record indicates, and this current point-spread exemplifies that. Moreover, since Mike Zimmer has taken over as the Vikings head coach, Minnesota has gone an impressive 17-7 SU and 19-4 ATS at home versus non-division opponents with a win percentage of .375 or better. Bet Minnesota minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET PM ET

Game# 383-384

Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*)

The oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog in this spot with all being considered. After all, we have #8 and undefeated Oklahoma State as a touchdown underdog against an unranked team Iowa State with a season mark of 4-2. The Cyclones have underachieved this season after being a preseason Top 10 team considered to be a legitimate college football playoff contender. However, they were knocked off at #11 Iowa (6-1) and at #20 Baylor (6-1). They won’t be a playoff team but remains a serious Big 12 title threat if the can win on Saturday. I said it before and I will say it again, Oklahoma State is a fraudulent Top 10 team. The Cowboys 6 wins this season have all come by 11 or fwer and by an average of 7.0 points per game. This is a classic example of me trusting the oddsmakers in setting an accurate line compared to pollsters ranking teams. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Chargers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET

Game# 261-262

Play On: Ravens -2.5 (10*)

Sometimes it’s just best to keep it simple. The Ravens have been of the best running teams in the NFL over the past few seasons. This year is no different as they’re averaging a robust 148.8 yards rushing per game. That’s good for 4th best in the league. Conversely, the Chargers are dead last in rushing yards allowed per contest at 157.6. As a matter of fact, during last Sunday’s win over Cleveland, they allowed the Browns to rush for 230 yards and average a massive 6.6 yards per carry. Additionally, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been red hot in the air during the previous 2 games after going 59-80 (73.8%) and throwing for an enormous 741 yards.

The Chargers are coming off a 47-42 win over Cleveland last week. Since 1980, there has been just 28 regular season games in which a team won while allowing 40 points or greater, and only 12 of those teams were installed as an underdog in their next game. When pairing that up with Baltimore coming off a 31-25 win over Indianapolis in their previous game, and it presents a rare and unbeaten NFL betting situation which is displayed below.

Any NFL regular season underdog (Chargers) that’s coming off a win in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Ravens) that scored 28 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those underdogs going 0-7 SU&ATS since 1980. Those 7 underdogs lost by a decisive margin of 20.1 points per game.

Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET

Game# 173-174

Play On: Texas -3.5 (10*)

#25 Texas (4-2) hosts #12 Oklahoma State (5-0). Despite being the lower ranked team and having 2 losses they find themselves as a favorite versus unbeaten Oklahoma State.  I firmly believe that Oklahoma State is a fraudulent #12 ranked team. All 5 of their wins have come by 14 points or fewer and their average margin of victory has come by just 6.8 points per contest. That’s especially concerning when looking at their first 2 games which were home wins over Missouri State (FCS team) by 7 and Tulsa (2-4) by 5.

The Longhorns only losses this year came versus #17 Arkansas and #4 Oklahoma. The 55-48 loss to Oklahoma last week was a tough pill to swallow considering they squandered a 21-point lead in that contest. On a positive note, the Texas offense has ben red-hot over their last 3 contests while averaging 50.0 points scored and 523.0 yards gained per game. By the way, Texas has gone 22-2 SU and 16-8 ATS over the last 24 season in games immediately following Oklahoma. Since 2019, the Longhorns are 5-0 SU at home following a loss and won by 19.8 points per game. Through their first 6 games Texas has a +5 turnover margin while Oklahoma State is -2.  Texas is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 39.0 points per game. Bet Texas minus the points for a Top Play wager.

Browns @ Chargers 4:05 ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Browns +2.5 (10*)

The Chargers are coming off 2 straight division wins over Las Vegas last Monday night and at Kansas City before that. Now they’ll be hosting a dangerous non-division opponent in Cleveland and playing on short rest.

After losing their season opener at Kansas City by a narrow 4-point margin, Cleveland has bounced back to win 3 in a row. I look for the Browns to attack the Chargers defense on the ground and be successful in doing so. After all, Cleveland is #1 in rushing offense at 177.0 yards per game. San Diego has permitted their opponents to run for 140 yards per contest which ranks 29th out of 32 NFL teams are 30th in yards permitted per carry at 5.3. Cleveland’s defense is pretty good as well. They’re #2 in total defense at 250.3 yards per game, #4 in scoring defense at 16.8 points allowed per contest and tied for 2nd in sacks with 14.

Michigan @ Nebraska 7:30 PM ET

Game# 381-382

Play On: Nebraska +3.0 (10*)

#9 Michigan is coming off convincing 38-17 win at Wisconsin in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 5-0. Conversely, Nebraska is coming off a 56-7 home blowout win over Nebraska which evened their record at 3-3. Yet, the undefeated and #9 Wolverines are just a 3.0-point favorite versus an unranked team with a .500 record. It’s just never that easy and the college football betting angle listed below exemplifies just that.

Play against college football favorite of 4.0 or less (Michigan) that’s playing in Game 6 and has a 5-0 record, and they’re coming off a game in which it covered by 8.5 points or more, versus an opponent (Nebraska) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those undefeated small favorites going 0-8 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all 8 games straight up by an average of 8.4 points per contest.

Furthermore, any college football home underdog that’s coming off a conference win by 35 points or more is 12-0 ATS since 2017. Those underdogs also won 9 of those contests straight up. Their 3 SU losses came by a combined 5 points. Bet on Nebraska plus the small number for a Top Play wager.

Ravens @ Broncos 4:25 PM ET

Game# 273-274

Play On: Denver +1.0 (10*)

Baltimore is 2-1 and their wins have come by a combined 3 points. As a matter of fact, they needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal last week from Justin Tucker with no time left to pull out a 19-17 win at Detroit. The Ravens continue to be a run heavy offense that excels in that area. However, they’ll be facing a Denver defense which allowing a mere 59 rushing yards per game. Lamar Jackson has missed two practices this week while nursing a back injury. He will be facing a Denver defense that has allowed quarterbacks to complete a combined 52.4% of their passes thus far. As it is, Jackson has only completed 60.9% of his passes this season.

Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. They have held all 3 of their opponents to 13 points or fewer and all of its wins came by 10 point or greater. The Broncos offense has been perfectly balanced through 3 games while attempting 95 runs and an identical 95 passes while gaining a more than respectable 387.3 yards per game. Bet on the Broncos for a Top Play wager.

Dolphins @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET

Game# 487-488

Play On: Dolphins +4.0 (10*)

Derek Carr is off to an extremely hot start to the season. Nevertheless, he’ll be facing what is arguable the best cornerback tandem in the NFL which is Miami’s Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. The Raiders are off to a 2-0 start. You may be surprised to know, this is a franchise that’s won 2 straight just 20 times since 2004, and they went a terrible 6-14 SU and 5-15 ATS in their following game. After winning their first 2 games as an underdog versus Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Raiders assume the role of a chalk for a first time this season. Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, the Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a loss.

Miami is coming last Sunday’s embarrassing 35-0 home loss to Buffalo. However, it must be noted that since 2001, away teams with a point-spread of +4.5 to -4.5 who are coming off a home shutout loss have gone 8-0 ATS. Additionally, since the start of last season, Miami is 6-3 SU on the road and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 6.0 or less. As a matter of fact, 1 of those wins came last season at Las Vegas 26-25 as 2.5-point underdog. Yes the Dolphins will be without Tua at quarterback, but at this stage of his young career there’s not a huge drop off going to veteran Jacoby Brissett who has starting experience with both Indianapolis and New England. Bet on the Dolphins plus the points for a Top Play wager.

UCLA @ Stanford 6:00 PM ET

Game# 363-364

Play On: Stanford +4.5 (10*)

After earning a huge victory over LSY 2 weeks ago, UCLA followed that up with a 40-37 loss to Fresno State as a 10.5-point home favorite. Fresno State exposed the UCLA defense last week by racking up 569 yards of total offense. The UCLA defense has been particularly vulnerable in their last 2 games with Fresno State and LSU amassing a combined 785 yards passing against them.

After losing their season opener 24-7 versus Kansas State, Stanford has won their last 2 over USC and Vanderbilt on the road. On the last Saturday in September, Stanford finally will play its home opener. They will be ready. Bet on Stanford plus the points for a Top Play wager.

Virginia @ North Carolina 7:30 PM ET

Game# 185-186

Play On: North Carolina -7.5 (5*)

Virginia has got off to a 2-0 start with blowout home wins over William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14. However, the competition is about to get substantially tougher in their ACC opener on Saturday at #24 North Carolina.

The Tar Heels know if they hope to contend for an ACC title like many expected, they can ill afford to lose this contest after being upset at Virginia Tech in their season opener. North Carolina will also be playing with big time revenge after losing their last 4 against Virginia. On a positive note, the Tar Heels defense which has been their enigma in recent seasons allowed just 296 and 271 yards in their first 2 games. I look for an inspired effort and convincing win from North Carolina on Saturday. Bet on North Carolina minus the points.

Cardinals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 459-460

Play On: Cardinals +3.0 (10*)

I have been eyeing this game down for a few weeks now. Arizona has not reached the postseason since the 2015-2016 campaign. Conversely, Tennessee has been a playoff participant in 3 of the last 4 years. As a matter of fact, the one time they failed to qualify during that span, they still went 9-7. Yet, Tennessee is just a 3.0 points home favorite in their season opener versus an Arizona team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015-2016 season NFL campaign. Moreover, if this game were being played in Arizona, the Cardinals would be the 3.0-point favorite. The last I checked, the sportsbooks and odds-makers aren’t that nice, nor will they ever be lauded for their generosity. If it smells like a rat, and looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Additionally, this is a Tennessee team that allowed 27 points and 398 yards per game a season ago despite being a playoff team.

On the other hand, Arizona averaged a more than respectable 25.6 points scored per game last year. Since 2019, the Cardinals are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a non-division away underdog and won 3 of those contests straight up. Bet on the Cardinals plus the points for a Top Play wager.