9:05 Eastern

4* (427) Chicago+ over Denver

As we thought last week (Sports Watch Monitor) the Vikings would handle the Broncos, though, surprisingly one-sided 42-24.  Denver faces struggling Chicago on Saturday.  The Bears have dropped back-to-back preseason games, 17-16 to Baltimore and 30-27 to Cincinnati.  If you recall, Chicago is stuck with an extra preseason game in 2018 and have been playing almost the whole roster.  Yes, we know Denver has not lost back-to-back preseason games since 2012. However, Chicago is frustrated and will come to play this evening using the #1 and #2 slots at each position.  It’s now critical from the timing standpoint.  Remember the Broncos gave away over 400 to the Vikings offense last week, so we’re pretty sure the Bears will be in this all the way despite being on the road.  In the regular season series Chicago has covered 5-straight versus Denver, while the Broncos come in 2-10 ATS L12 times on the field. Granted those numbers don’t reflect the preseason, but they are a intuitive indicator of the current reality.  Good Luck.

(413) 4* Buffalo+ over Cleveland ….7:30 Eastern

It’s somewhat difficult in the early going to take a shot against the Browns who franchise wise are looking forward to an uptick in wins/losses for 2018.  This biggest question for the public is whether subject line (-3-1/2) is appropriate as Cleveland is the chalk?  What I like about the points is QB McCarron will be under center at some point tonight, along with QB Allen adding more competition and rivalry in the overloaded position.  Both players have diverse skills, each could give the Browns defense problems.  Defensively, last season the Browns allowed almost 26 points a game (near the bottom) and the Bills gave back 21.7 points per outing. The Bills QB Taylor would love nothing better than to beat the Browns at home.  Though, we can’t help noting Buffalo has more talent and will be sky high.  On the technical side, Cleveland comes in 0-3 ATS L3 Friday exhibition games, while Buffalo is 4-1 ATS L5 in the series.  Good Luck.

3* Houston +1 over New England

Revenge game for the Texans after that major playoff loss last year to Tom Brady and company.  Don't expect Brady to stay in for long so, I like our chances with Houston.  Remember, the home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the series.  Good Luck.

3* Tampa Bay over Jacksonville

First off, I now doubt would be more comfortable getting points here but, we'll take a shot with the Bucs 8-1 ATS on the road in game #2 of the NFLX season.  Further,  QB Winston has supposed play the first half with Fitz getting the majority of the work later.  Against NE last week the JAX defense surrendered 57+ yards at least in six of the offensive drives, JAX won 31-24.  This time around the Jaguars will be without RB Fournette.  Last year against the Bucs in the exhibition season, the Jags offense threw 4 interceptions.  Last week, Tampa Bay scored only 12 points against Cincinnati so, we expect a turnaround on the offensive end since it's game #2 with the Bucs looking for more consistency.  Good Luck.

Must have +3, nothing less, Brad

10* ARIZONA (279) over Houston (Sunday) @ 4:00 Eastern

NFL PRESEASON GAME OF THE YEAR

Believe it or not we have another unit (Arizona) that has lost back-to-back games SU & ATS in the preseason.  Opposing Houston who is 2-0 SU & ATS during the early period.  In the Arizona losses (19-3, 31-10) the offense has been from hunger with only 13-points on the docket.  The word out of Arizona is the offensive unit being lackluster will be getting more reps than the first two games combined.  In fact, the first unit offense has played just 4 series this preseason.  There is no doubt QB Carson Palmer of Arizona needs the reps with some injuries at the wide out position.  However, the unit is not devoid of threats down the field, including the tight end position.  Last week (8/21) the Texans defeated the struggling New Orleans Saints 16-9.  But, we note the Saints defense shutdown Houston’s offense in the second half holding the opposition to 58 total yards.   Also, the Texans will once again play without their leader J. J. Watt.   Arizona is still listed as the underdog, so please buy this early.  And, remember the Cardinals are 9-2 ATS off a SU loss versus a unit off a SU win.  Arizona should be highly motivated here!

5* PITTSBURGH +3, not lower...over New Orleans @ 8:00 Easter

NFLX GAME OF THE GAME....BDS

As a special note, Saturday we will have our 10* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR.  Here we know Big Ben will play tonight versus the Saints down in New Orleans.  Sorry fantasy fans, RB Bell is once again out, and most likely will not be back until game #4 of the regular season.  As a team the Steelers are 0-2 SU & ATS losing 17-30 and 0-17 to Philly last week.   Obviously, when a unit comes off back-to-back losses they need from the emotional standpoint, a reversal of form.  Seeing Big Ben in the lineup will surely spur the offense, and RB DeAngelo Williams (11 touchdowns) will help drive the offense.  This situation is a "must win" for Pittsburgh since game #4 of the preseason most units run through the motions as to not injure their best players.  Pittsburgh plays Carolina next week.  The Saints we know have problems on the offensive line, and you can "bet" the Pittsburgh defense will be charging the line of scrimmage tonight.  Now, remember you must have +3 as this is where all the stated "value" of the handicap draws from tonight...TAKE THE POINTS!

(427) 4* New Orleans +3 over Houston @ 8:00 Eastern

Last week J.J. Watt ate up the 49ers in the Houston 24-13 win.  This time around the defensive mastermind will not be in the lineup.  New Orleans rolls in off a 34-22 loss to New England back east.  Believe the Saints will come to play with a number of starting positions being worked out in the exhibition sets.  Critical to this encounter considering +3 (don’t go any lower) is adjustment PK Connor Barth who is taking the chores from Kai Forbath tonight.  Understand coach Sean Payton has been showing confidence in the kid the last couple of days on the practice field.  Also, last week against Billy B. the New Orleans running attack was shutdown.  Fully expect veteran running back Ingram to solidify his reputation with a rebound performance.  On the other side of ball, the Houston quarterbacks looked shaky last week, so right now give the fundamentals to the New Orleans side of the ball.  In addition, the players want to bring home a victory for their ravaged fan base after the resulting deficits caused by the recent record breaking flood and storms. Yesterday we lost out with Miami, as Dak looked awesome at QB for Dallas, the SEC product gives the Cowboys a huge boost in their QB insurance department.  So, now including that loss road underdogs are 13-5 ATS L18 games on the preseason schedule.  NO is 10-3 SU in preseason (Peyton), while, the Texans are 2-7 ATS L9. Remember too, this is a revenge situation for the Saints who were defeated by Houston 24-6 last regular season.

3* Denver +1 over Chicago

Not afraid to go with Broncos in the "after Peyton" cycle about to take off in Denver.  These two have played only 8 games since 1987.  The last meeting saw Denver 17-15 at Chicago in November 2015.  The Broncos finished off their championship season in 2015 with 5 straight wins to take the Super Bowl in February.  The Bears hobbled into the off-season winning 2-of-their-last -7 games on the schedule.  Against the spread the Bears come in 6-19-1 ATS at home.  Coach Fox is 27-28-1 ATS in preseason, while coach Kubiak shows 22-12-2 ATS in the early goes.  Also, Denver is 4-0 ATS in week #1 of the exhibition season. Remember Kubiak is a solid coach and will look to begin with a motivational win without Peyton Manning.

3* Carolina over Miami

No doubt both clubs won't to be seen as "prepared" in this spot, but this is BB road games for Miami...The number opened at -1 favoring Carolina, now at the Westgate the Dolphins are favored by one.  The chalk has covered 4 straight in preseason meetings, but this is the shortest price. Also, the Fish are 2-6 ATS in Saturday editions, and they will suffer once their first unit exits the playing field..Panthers may have more energy late...CLOSE!

10 DIME NFLX GOY

...One of my key teams projected to have a surprising winning season. I believe greatly in the coaching aspect of the game...One of my fav coaches is Bill O'Brien who has outstanding experience, taking Penn State out of their depression with a solid season in 2003.  We not only have game covered with outstanding techs slanted heavily to Houston, but catch SF not playing many big money earners, if any at all....Houston

10* Dallas+ over Miami

There is no doubt the Pokes will come to play this evening.  Now that QB Romo being back in the saddle helping the Dallas offense improve greatly against the Fish defense. We know the Cowboys show at 0-2 SU, so they will play with need.  Miami a solid -4 yesterday in Vegas has been tagged down to -3 1/2, the same goes for the off-shore outlets.  With HC Philbin 3-8 SU in NFLX, and not making preseason a priority, I will take a huge ticket and a TOP PLAY on Dallas...Good Luck.

10* Houston over Atlanta

NFLX GAME OF THE WEEK

The line here opened at -2 and already there is movement for this Saturday night event. First off, this is a more important game for O'Brien and the Texans.  At Penn State O'Brien handled a very difficult challenge with the program in flux.  He has even a more coarse scenario down in Houston with the Texans coming off a 32-0 loss to Arizona last week.  Add in their 2013 numbers and it's clear how important this situation is to the head coach especially.  Fortunately, the Texans have three injured players returning to the lineup with Cushing, Johnson and Foster.  Atlanta shows off a SU & ATS win last week 16-10.  Both QB Ryan and Tannehill took one possession and scored. The remainder of game saw Atlanta score just 2 field goals. We expect a similar offensive mindset against Houston.  Taking into consideration the way Houston lost last week, being shutout. You can fully expect a solid rebound effort on their home field...Houston 23 Atlanta 17