10* Temple+ over UNC

CFB EASTERN EDGE BOWL OF THE YEAR

BDS

5* Georgia Southern -7 over Georgia State

SUN BELT GAME OF THE WEEK...BDS

Realize GSU letdown last week in their loss to Troy on the road.  But, needs to respond in game where underdog State is accruing late interest.  Georgia State has solid forces in Ellington, Barnett and McCoy.  QB Ellington, though, is injured playing on a so-so leg issue.  On the road I don't want that angle burying our chances of covering when getting points.  We're going GSU who is coming off a loss, while State just beat 1-10 South Alabama at home which was not impressive.  For now, we're laying the points with a homer in a must win scenario.  Good Luck.

ALREADY CASHED AMERICAN/ALBANY UNDER CBB EARLY

5* Central Michigan (7-4, 9-2) over Toledo (6-5, 3-7-1)

CFB FRIDAY EARLY BEST BET ANGLE....BDS

HOW CENTRAL HAS PERFORMED THE LAST TWO VERSUS NIU AND BALL STATE HAS BEEN SUPERLATIVE WINNING AND COVERING EACH, WHILE OUT SCORING THE OPPOSITION IN THEIR SEVEN WINS BY 135 POINTS.  LAY THE WOOD NOON TIME ON THE NETWORK.  GOOD LUCK.

3* MISSISSIPPI STATE -1 over Ole Miss

CFB EGG BOWL WINNER...BDS

4* NO. ILLINOIS+ over Western Michigan

Much press for WMU who have won 3 straight in conference games against 3-8, 4-8 and 5-6 teams.  Western has been a loser on the road this season, despite they should come in a little over confident against NIU.  The road chalk in this series has not won and covered going back to 2012, we'll grab the value tonight.  Good Luck.

111619

4* Minnesota+ (335) over Iowa

CFB Key Reverse Angle…BDS

Coach Fleck of Minnesota has turned around the team’s course of action, winning 9 straight (6-2-1 ATS) this season and 11 in a row going back to 2018.  Last week the Golden Gophers stunned Penn State (-6-1/2) 31-26.  OB Morgan of Minnesota was the key completing 18-20 (339) and 3 touchdowns.  Last season Minny went 6-6 SU with Big-10 losses to Maryland (13-42), Iowa (31-48), Ohio State (14-30), Nebraska (28-53), Illinois (31-55) and Northwestern (14-24).  They were out scored 242-131 in those defeats.  Thus far in 2019 the Golden Gophers have faced Maryland, Nebraska and Illinois out scoring the group 126-34 winning all three SU & ATS.  So, it’s easy to ascertain the improvement by Minnesota on the playing field.  Iowa comes in 6-3 SU (4-5 ATS), 4-1 L5 SU in Iowa City. They have won 6 of 7 SU over Minnesota out scoring in the series 187-172.  Technically, the road unit comes in 3-0-1 ATS L4 with the underdog 3-1-1 ATS L5 times out.  Remember Minnesota has covered 7-straight versus the Big-10, 6-0 ATS L6 overall and 5-0 ATS on turf.  Iowa (after losing to Wisconsin 22-24) shows 1-4 ATS L5 after a SU loss and 2-5 ATS L7 after allowing 200+ rushing yards prior.  No matter, we’re going with the Golden Gophers to cover considering they have so much revenge built up in the que.  Good Luck.

3* Cornell+ over Dartmouth

The Green (8-0) is a perfect 5-0 SU in the Ivies this season after taking care of hated rival Princeton last week in easy fashion.  Their two largest blowouts at home were against Yale and Columbia one sided affairs.  However, those easy winners where after a road game with a road game scheduled next after those two huge wins.  Today Dartmouth has another game versus Cornell.  The Big Red (2-6) have played seven difficult games in a row.  They dropped a road game to Princeton 21-20 last week and now have even a tougher situation on the road.  The Big Red did cover earlier this season in the second of BB road games against Yale.  In 2018 as a RF the Green (-9) beat Cornell 35-24, and the line sets up herewith +30-1/2.  Take the points in what we expect might be somewhat of a letdown for Dartmouth.  Good Luck.

4* STONY BROOK+ over Delaware

Key CFB Eastern Edge...BDS

Again turnovers and OL blocking (2 fumbles and 3 sacks) hurt the Blue Hens in their loss to Albany running their losing streak to three, while the Brook on a 1-4 SU run L5 looks to bounce back after some tough losses.  We must recall Stony on the road a few games upset Villanova 36-35. Here feel the Brook is in the right spot to pull road upset.  Good Luck.

4* Fresno State over Utah State

CFB MWC Special Saturday...BDS

5* WASHINGTON (5-4) over Oregon State (4-4)

Incredible scenario with the Huskies losers (leading in the 4th quarter in each) of BB games to Oregon and Utah, and they were the underdog in each case.  Now they go on the road against the Beavers who show off BB road wins over California and Arizona. Talk about contrasting situations!  Don't forget it's November and Washington has not secured a bowl bid.  SOS of late really favors the Huskies, but their defense will face a balanced scoring arsenal with QB Luton (who is hot) and a bevy running backs.  Washington no doubt is in a must win situation on the road.  However, overall they have the better defense and should be able to respond with a run first attack controlling the tempo of the game.  Remember State has been more vulnerable  at home against the run this season allowing on average of 236 yards.  Washington has won the last three by 19, 35 and 24 points, but the spread has been -32, -27 and -26 and the -10 does extend the mind alittle.  The Huskies have controlled the series winning seven straight games, and the road team has covered the last four.  Also, despite being jacked up State has poor history on their field going 2-7 ATS L9.  In addition, they are 1-4 ATS L5 in Friday games.  Washington looking to regain their mojo is 4-1 ATS L5 after running for less than 100 yards and 7-2 ATS Friday's.  What should be a close game early, feel the Huskies focusing on the run and TOP will circumvent Oregon State's prolific gang somewhat.  Don't forget Washington just played Oregon and Utah two top ten units.  Drop in overall physical pressure at the line of scrimmage equates to a 38-24 win by Washington.

3* FLORIDA+ over South Carolina

SEC APPRECIATION SATURDAY ANGLE

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

LES MILES!

10* KANSAS+ (348) over Kansas State

CFB...BIG-12 GAME OF THE YEAR...BDS

4* North Carolina State+ over Wake Forest

CFB REVERSE ANGLE ELITE...BDS

Double Revenge for reeling Pack who show 0-3 SU & ATS this season on the road against West Virginia, Florida State and Boston College.  Wake 6-1 and 4-1 SU at home with all close games with the exception of ELON!  For the Demon Deacons QB Newman should start, while State will look at 1-3 options behind the center, but frosh QB Leary should get the nod.  Overall the spread series has been controlled by Wake of late, but Deacons 0-4 ATS after a bye.  NCS is a perfect 5-0 ATS after carrying for under 100 yards in their last game.  Another positive angle for the Pack is the additional rest after the Boston College game.  Good Luck.

4* Columbia+ over Yale

IVY LEAGUE SPECIAL...BDS

3* UCONN+ (308) over Navy

CFB Friday Appreciation Angle…BDS

Navy travels tonight 6-1 with the loss being earlier at Memphis.  They ran for almost 400 yards last week rarely in a must throw situation versus a testy Tulane team.  Also, the Middies managed only 68 yards through the air winning 41-38 at home.  The Huskies with a 2-6 record show off a nice win against lesser UMass and have improved offensively with a frosh quarterback.  Can they stay in the game enough to cover the large number?  One insight has the #1 rushing team (Navy) quite capable of piling up the points, especially considering they have the #18 rush defense in the country.  However, we believe UConn will have the edge in mental focus being at home and showing off a rare win.  In addition, teams who have Notre Dame (Navy) up next are 2-4 ATS L6 in 2019.  Granted Navy has been a consistent spread unit of late, still they come in 1-4-1 ATS on grass and 1-5 ATS L6 against a losing home unit.  TAKE THE POINTS!

4* AUBURN+ over LSU

CFB SEC Special Saturday...BDS

5* Brown+ over Cornell

IVY LEAGUE SPECIAL...BDS

The Bears have not won an Ivy League game in two years, while continuing their streak this season with losses to both Harvard (7-42) and Princeton (22-65).  Granted they are no doubt overdue for a reclamation win.  Cornell this season shows 0-2 SU in the Ivies copying Brown, but in both cases Yale and Harvard they covered +18 for nice underdog covers.  The aforementioned line was originally  stroked at -10 with the Big Red.  The line change still has value for the Bears  considering they played two of the top four units (9-1) in the Ivies.  The Bears should have enough offense to stay close with an "expected" win by Cornell with Princeton up next(!).  Big Red lost to the Tigers 66-0 last season, TAKE THE POINTS.

3* Pennsylvania+ over Yale

By all means this the Eli football game.  However, we were not impressed by their last two wins.  If the running game can execute more effectively for Pennsylvania they should manage to stay close in what could a shocking final score.  Good Luck.

5* LSU over Mississippi State

SATURDAY CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS

3* Tulsa+ over Cincinnati

CFB Saturday Appreciation Side

Good Luck, BDS

4* Auburn over Arkansas

Saturday SEC Special...BDS

Auburn (5-1 SU & ATS) shows off a bye week and a SU loss to talented Florida.  And now must travel to Arkansas to face a 2-4 team both SU & ATS.  Granted Arkansas despite their negative is seemingly on the improve, but recently the War Eagles have dominated, especially in the last three games winning and covering each by an average margin of 38.7 points.  We know HC Malzahn of Auburn will want to rebound after their horrific loss and will be well rested.  The favorite in the series is 6-0 ATS and the Tigers show 5-1 ATS L6 meetings.  Good Luck.

101819

4* Marshall+ (309) over Florida Atlantic

Friday Night Key College Angle…BDS

At home Marshall (3-3, 1-5) won 31-17 last week over a 1-5 Old Dominion club, while FAU (4-2, 4-2) at home won 28-13 over MTS (2-4). Earlier FAU dropped both games to quality opponents in Ohio State and Central Florida. Since improving their running game, the Owls are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS.  Although QB Robison and young RB Davidson played well last week, though, it was the ineptness of the ODU passing game which earmarked three interceptions making the difference.  Marshall knowing, they are going up against Kiffin just might show a different look offensively.  Of course, they will be looking for QB Green to get untracked in a negative environment.   We look for the Herd to improve on the defensive side of the ball with some of the players dealing with nagging injuries.  Granted this is a tough call with the home team winners of the last three in the series, but the road units are 4-1 ATS and the underdog 5-1 L6 ATS.  Marshall comes an amazing 16-5 ATS on grass, FAU is 3-8 ATS L11 in that venue. And, don’t forget the Owls show 1-9 ATS L10 at home when laying between -3-1/2 and -7.  In Friday encounters the Herd is 8-3 L11 ATS and opposing Florida Atlantic a PERFECT 0-6 ATS.  Grab the line value now and earn with us.  Good Luck.

THIS IS A TOP PLAY!

5* Temple (128) over Memphis

CFB Game of the Week…BDS

On Saturday we have another exciting football game with the high -flying Memphis (5-0) Tigers traveling to Philadelphia and a date with eastern (AAC) unit Temple (4-1).  The Tigers come off a blasting (52-33) of UL-Monroe though giving up over 300 yards passing will have their hands filled Saturday afternoon in a situation that will represent an uptick in team strengths.  Key, the Tigers have struggled somewhat in stopping the run.  And the Owls will be their most physical opponent since game #1 against Ole Miss.  From the Temple offensive perspective, the running game went for over 230 yards on the ground last week against ECU (who is a stronger unit than ULM), and clearly should have a noted edge here.  Memphis has not encountered a running game thus far that will control the tempo.  So, if QB Russo of Temple stays out of negative yardage issues, we can easily see a win and cover for the Owls.  No doubt current and former head coach Matt Rhule will have the unit sky high.  Technically with Temple a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season, we’ll take the points.  Good Luck.

4* VIRGINIA PLUS over Miami Florida

Friday CFB Key Alert...BDS

5* Central Michigan+ over EMU

EMU coming off BB wins at Illinois and home versus CC State while struggling.  Central lost 31-15 to WMU however they covered the number. Their only downer this season just like Michigan was a 61-0 loss at Wisconsin.  Central has enough offensive talent to keep this within a FG at home, and finally never featured Eastern laying points historically in a key game.  GL.

3* SOUTH ALABAMA +10 over GSU

Would normally restrict going against GSU after they came up short last week for us.  However, they seem over confident this week so the message goes against a school they have crushed the last five on the board with an average point-differential of 32+ per meeting.  Although the Jags have suffered in some physical area they have improved their running game.  In the past they have struggled running the football against GSU, but we feel tonight this will higher scoring game with still the running games in the forefront.  Remember Georgia Southern has bigger games down the road while showing 1-4 ATS in Thursday calls and 1-7 ATS on turf.  If there ever was a revenge game this is it (SA) as they have been out scored 100-13 L2 in the series.  Take the points with South Alabama, and good luck.

3* Colorado State+ (193) over Utah State

CFB APPRECIATION ANGLE...BDS

Might be a difficult spot for red hot Utah State (3-1) after surprising San Diego State on the road 23-17 as an underdog and having LSU in Death Valley next week in a "day" game!  The Rams (1-3) came up short Saturday at home to Toledo 41-35, but they out first downed the Rockets by an amazing 36-20 and limiting their passing game to 111 yards.  However they were pounded for 436 yards against a big offensive line.  Utah State with a huge road win and having success in the early going the books have been alerted pushing the opening line to -23-1/2 UTS with the home setting.  So we are looking keenly at the Rams to stay closer than expected.  In their loss to physically talented Toledo CSU almost reached 700 yards of total offense which is an indicator of points enhancement.  Defensively they have to minimize dangerous QB Long of the home unit.  Remember UTS in 2018 won at CSU 29-24 but, needed a few INTERCEPTION Touches to take the cash.  Techs have UTS with super long-term numbers, but the Rams show a PERFECT 4-0 ATS record after a SU LOSS.  Good Luck.

5* Mississippi State+ (167) over Auburn

SEC GAME OF THE WEEK…BDS

Home standing War Eagles show with a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS mark entertaining Mississippi State this evening.  Last season State at home took down Auburn 23-9 so overall this will be a difficult situation.  However, we note the Bulldogs will look to control the tempo with their running game recalling they generated 349 yards on the ground with RB Hill grinding yardage, while considered one of the best in the country.  Last week MSU at home won and covered 28-13 over Kentucky.  This will be the initial experience as an underdog in 2019.  If State hangs on to the football it will ensure a closer game than the lines makers projections.  In the physical series MSU has cashed 5 of 7 in Vegas, and 4-1 L5 ATS challenging the SEC.  Take the points in another SEC showdown tonight.  Good Luck.

4* Iowa State (129) over Baylor

After a blowout win over lowly rated UTSA 63-14, the Bears managed a letdown at Rice surviving by 21-13.  The Owls have a lackluster running attack and a mediocre passing game!  Iowa State just clobbered Louisiana Monroe 72-20 as a bounce after losing a killer home game to no less Iowa 18-17.  State has won back-to-back games in the series 28-14 and 23-13.  From the trending side the ISU is 3-1-1 ATS L5 in the series with the road unit carrying the same numbers.  The Bears are 3-8 L11 ATS at home which is not good!  In addition, Baylor is 5-16-1 ATS after gaining 280 yards passing (Rice has no push on the "D" line) and 1-6 ATS after allowing 100 yards rushing. And, don't forget the Bears 10-21 ATS mark on grass.  Whereas ISU is a solid 7-1 ATS after allowing 200+ yards rushing.  Good Luck.

4* Western Michigan (120) over Central Michigan

Last week Miami Fla. (-30-1/2) at home were highly disinterested in different aspects of their game defeating Central Michigan in a so-so 17-12 win. And that was after Miami coasted in a 63-0 win against Bethune-Cookman?  Central Michigan 2-2 have yet to win on the road.  The Horses show 2-2 after losing at 'Cuse 52-33, made a late run but were far off in matching points up in New York. WMU did manage to put over 500 yards of total offense, however, their turnovers made the Orange look good.  They are 2-2 ATS covering their first two home games in 2019.  Most instate rivalries can be brutal, we feel WMU with their running attack should do big time damage as they did in 2018 with 305 yards at CMU.  Realize the number has increased over last season -5-1/2 - 17.0.  CMU has some nagging injuries though that could hurt their overall production.  We'll back the Horses who have the edge talent wise, while this is a change in venue using a chalk in College Football for BDS.  Good Luck.  

MAJOR LATE MONEY SORRY NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR DATA

GOOD LUCK BRAD

Despite situation we expect Ole Miss letdown by the Bears indicating ASU has more than a shot of a SU win. GL.

091419

4* Kansas State (111) over Mississippi State

12:00 Eastern…

In this non-conference show down the units arrive with a 2-0 SU record each victory against lesser foes, and the Wildcats beat FCS Nicholls State as part of that equation.  Last year Mississippi State crushed 31-10 at Kansas State running for 384 yards controlling the tempo of the football game.  The Wildcats looked futile offensively with only 213 yards of offense.  The SEC unit simply dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  From last week MSU QB Stevens (9/10 w/2 touchdowns) was injured and played only the first-half against Southern Miss in a 38-15 win which was helped along by three turnovers by the visitor.  Since Stevens injury effected the upper body, frosh Shrader (7/11) who played the second-half last week would most likely grab the start.  Really the key this season is the running attack illustrated by RB Hill’s 17 carries last week gaining 211 yards and 2 touchdowns.  No doubt the Bulldogs have lost key players from 2018, while starting three newcomers on the defensive line.  On the other hand, first-year mentor for Kansas State Kleiman (FCS) will look to upset the SEC crowd, but will be in for a real war.  The Wildcats running game has improved with graduate transfer Gilbert taking pressure off the passing game, and that may translate into increased time of possession.  In addition, one critical non-statistical side bar has assistant Malone coming over from Mississippi State (2018…defensive quality control coach) which should help the staff garner a more diverse approach from the stop troops.  Technically the Bulldogs have a history of super numbers at home, and against quality clubs, but we can’t overlook the new excitement (Bill Snyder retired) with Kleiman’s motivational skills and opened minded approach to the normal substitution format.  Kansas State visits with a perfect 4-0 ATS L4 record and 5-1 ATS against winning teams.  They are 7-3 ATS versus non-conference foes and 21-9-1 ATS L31 in road assignments challenging winning home teams.  Good Luck.

091319

3* North Carolina+ (103) over Wake Forest

In this Friday opener we fully expect the Tar Heels to continue improvement winning SU at Wake Forest.  In games #1 and #2 this season UNC stopped South Carolina as an underdog winning 24-20 in their initial 2019 test, while in the second battle last week they secured an incredible 28-25 upset of highly touted Miami Florida. Remember North Carolina is now coached by their “old” coach Mack Brown, and have quickly delivered for the aspiring headmaster.  The Demon Deacons who are also 2-0 beat a talented Utah State 38-35 at home, then handled lackluster Rice on the road 41-21.  HC Clawson has done a solid job coming with three successful seasons for Wake Forest only the second time as part of the ACC, and they have won three straight bowl games.  No matter, if frosh QB Howell of the Tar Heels continues to play solid football in a tough place, the Heels should be kicking.  North Carolina is 3-0-1 ATS on turf, and 8-of-11 ATS as an underdog most recently.  Don’t forget as well as Wake Forest has played poorly against the ACC going 0-5 ATS L5.  Good Luck.

10* FRESNO STATE+ (390) over Minnesota, at home the Gophers (-14) limped through a 28-21 win over South Dakota State, while being out gained by South Dakota St.  Recall Minnesota finished 2018 with a 7-6 record with Fresno State 12-2 on the campaign.  Realize the Gophers are Big-10 pedigree, but their laying points on the road?  Fresno State with QB Reyna should out score the bulk of the visitor, and with HC Tedford logging ATS achievements getting points, go Bulldogs!  You will love this TOP PLAY.  Good Luck.

Saturday, September 7th

4* LSU (369) over Texas

7:30 AM Eastern

The Tigers were highly successful against lowly Georgia Southern at home, while Texas at home crushed Louisiana Tech 45-14.  Both schools are again ranked in the AP Top Ten LSU #6 and Texas #9 in week #2 of the season.  Tech generated 413 yards on offense with a 25-24 edge in first downs. ‘Horns QB (Tim Tebow?) Ehlinger was outstanding dropping in 4 scores inside the passing game, but Texas accumulated a few more injuries at running back and the receiver position. History does illustrate success at home against LSU, but this is far more advanced unit than the prior Tigers football teams. As a note when LSU won national championships in 2004 & 2011 they went a combined 11-0 SU versus non-conference teams.  In 2018 LSU lost to Texas A&M and Alabama and Florida all SEC Conference foes.  In order to jump back into title talk this is a CRITICAL game.  This is the first non-conference road game against an AP Top Ten team since 1970.  They will need to erase a series (7-9-1) losing record against Texas, and they show 4-5 ATS as a road chalk L9.  An LSU defensive prospective leader is back with LB Divinity with additional help showing on OL.  Technically the Tigers come in 4-0-1 ATS L5 playing against BIG-12 units and 21-9 ATS showing after allowing 170+ yards passing.  The ‘Horns are 4-11 ATS after a SU win of 20+ and 1-4 ATS after a SU win L5.  Good Luck.

090719

5* Texas State (354)  over  Wyoming

College Football Upset of the Week…BDS

Last Saturday Wyoming defeated a lopsided Missouri unit 37-31 by rushing for almost 300 yards on the ground, competing 6/16 passing for 92 yards.  SEC Tigers were clearly stunned after having a 28-16 edge in first downs and 537 total yards of offense.  Missouri had former Clemson QB Kelly Bryant running the offense throwing for 423 yards and two scores, but he threw a killer INT in the end zone and mishandled the football causing another turnover that was scooped up by the Pokes for a TD.  In addition, the mistake prone Tigers fumbled at the Wyoming one-yard line illustrating they were “never meant to win.”  Overall the Pokes brought back 11 starters while Texas State has 19 in the fold out of the Sun Belt Conference.  State did fall hard last time at Texas A&M 41-7.  They were completely shutdown on the ground which forced passing the ball in questionable situations.  The new spread offense being used by the Bobcats should be amenable to the Texas Hill Country especially facing the incredible speed of Texas A&M.  We like the fact Wyoming won last week and play non-conference with Idaho up next.  Texas State shows 4-1 ATS L5 off a loss, while Wyoming is 0-4 ATS in the month of September.  Good Luck.

4* Notre Dame (217) over Louisville (H)

8:00 Eastern

This is an interesting battle taking place down in Louisville where the Cardinals return 16 starters and the Irish showing 13.  From the 2018 stat sheet the task for Louisville (19.8/44.1) might be monumental considering their points for and against when facing nationally ranked Notre Dame (31.4/18.2). It is expected HC Sutterfield and Louisville will try slowing the pace of the football game.  Notre Dame QB Book, though, has already intuit that the Irish’s goal is to play fast?  Considering ND is ranked, although hit with injuries and key losses, they appear to have a clear advantage in size and speed.  In game #1 openers the Cards show 9-11-2 SU, while the Irish are 26-6 L32.  Also, Louisville shows 0-4 SU against ranked clubs to start the season, so obviously we can’t see them defeating Notre Dame HC Brian Kelly tonight.  No matter what Sutterfield’s game plan might be, it’s hard to erase the last 5 games in 2018 where Louisville gave up 50 or more points in each?  Technically the Irish come in 6-2 ATS L8 in September opposing Louisville unit 1-7 ATS L8.   With Louisville 1-11-1 ATS L13 versus non-conference foes, we’ll back the Irish tonight.  Good Luck.

083119

4* Georgia Southern (198) over LSU

BATON ROGUE

No doubt the Tigers (10-3) have a solid talent advantage in this game #1 non-conference battle with Georgia Southern, no less at home with a hungry following shadowing national champion hope.  In 2018 the Tigers lost in disgrace to Alabama on the road 29-0 not to mention a rough road downer against Florida, plus losing  (72-74) at Texas A&M in seven overtimes to end the regular season.  The Fiesta Bowl win over Central Florida 40-32 did not impress me considering defensive lapses.  The Tigers bring back seven starters on defense (Delpit), but did lose monster Devin White their leader with a quality defensive back transferring last week.  They still have a solid unit (23.6 – 2018) overall with potential under classman vying for playing time.  Offensively the New Orleans Saints OC Joe Brady has taken the same job for LSU giving great anticipation to a broader attack?  QB Burrow is a real gamer and will run but, does not have outstanding foot speed to get into the secondary enough to stretch the defense. He will be in throwing mode more often especially versus SEC teams.  The running back and wide out groups are once again loaded with an experienced OL to support.  Last season the offense averaged 32.5 points per game, 36.8 points in non-conference games including UCF.  Always the Tigers have consistent special team units.  Georgia Southern regroups off a 10-3 SU season and 23-21 win over Eastern Michigan in the Camellia Bowl last December.  In 2018 non-conference games the Eagles were both 4-1 SU and ATS with the only spread loss to Eastern Michigan in the Bowl game.  They have a solid running QB in Werts (908) who still has weapons with a multi-dimensional optional attack to cause confusion, misreads etc.  Despite lsoing their best rusher (Fields) coach Lunsford (12-7) has estimated there will be no drop off in execution or points with an uptick in the passing game.  Defensively, this is not a prolific unit from the size standpoint but one which brings speed in the secondary and on the corners of the 3-4 set.  Georgia Southern does have outstanding special teams with place-kicker Bauerle and Bass the punter both solid leaders.  With the Tigers showing a more diversified offense in practice sessions (Brady changes) you can expect more scoring this season down in Baton Rouge.  However, if ever LSU was going to play “straight” before a monster game (in Texas) this is it.  We look for an LSU win of course, but recent history shows when laying -20 or more against a non-conference foe before an SEC or quality unit next the Tigers are 0-5 ATS (2015-2018).  Texas (10-4) is not SEC but, they just won the Sugar Bowl over SEC unit Georgia 28-21 (+12-1/2) back on January 1st.   Take the points, and hope LSU maintains their second-half scoring ineffectiveness (2018) averaging 10.3 points in all their games.  Good Luck.

4* North Carolina (182) over South Carolina

Site:  Charlotte, North Carolina

Okay, obviously SEC contingent Gamecocks (7-6) have the listed favored and talent advantage coming into action.  Further, they have an advantage at quarterback with senior Bentley against a frosh entry for the Tar Heels (2-9).  SC has 14 starters back with UNC a similar amount.  No doubt SC being in the SEC had the edge in SOS.  The Gamecocks come 18-1 SU in season openers and show 6-1 ATS at neutral sites and 12-5 ATS L17 vs. ACC.  Still they had problems toward the end of last season against quality programs. UNC has not won a season opener against a Power 5 unit going back to 1997.  However, this time around the Tar Heels start with an old and brand new head coach in Mack Brown returning to his former haunt right out of the press box.  So we see UNC surfacing with a different mind set in 2019.  It might be somewhat of an edge playing in Charlotte, and it would help restructuring Tar Heels not facing SC at home.  Remember UNC still has a solid rushing attack which HC Brown will look to parlay into a "ball control" advantage this afternoon.  If the defense improves in the tackling construct the Heels should produce an extremely competitive showing, while generating line value with this baby (SC-7, -12-1/2) hitting doubles.  Recall in the Belk Bowl the 'Cocks lost miserably 28-0, while late in the 2018 season UNC challenged Virginia only to lose 31-21.  Just a thought, but we look for a close encounter down in Charlotte this afternoon.  Good Luck.