I'm laying the points with the Patriots on Sunday.  Obviously, all the talk is about the injury to Tom Brady's throwing hand and how serious or not-so-serious it actually is.  Ian Rappaport reported that he was throwing the ball well on Friday.  The problem for the Jaguars in this one is that they don't have a true matchup for Gronkowski.  Jalen Ramsey draws the assignment, but as reported, Ramsey has lined up outside all season, while Gronk lines up tight 90 percent of the time.  We doubt the Patriots will play right into Jacksonville's strength on defense like Pittsburgh did last week when the Steelers began the game throwing the ball often, rather than establishing the run.  Pittsburgh miscues also led to 17 Jacksonville points.  Bill Belichick and DC Matt Patricia have made a living off of designing confusion for inexperienced and shaky QBs.  Blake Bortles struggles in the passing game and if he misses early, his confidence is destroyed. Toss in a less than 100 percent healthy Leonard Fournette and the Jags will likely wear down in the second half of this one.  New England enters on a 10-1 ATS run, overall. They're on a 5-0 playoff spread run at home and 36-15-2 ATS run at home, overall.  We're laying the points with the Patriots on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.  We have nothing but respect for the Jaguars' defense.  It was the defense that won last week's wildcard game and the defense that made Ben Roethlisberger's head spin (5 INTs) in a 30-9 Jacksonville win on October 8.  It didn't hurt Jacksonville's cause that the Steelers were off their big rivalry game against Baltimore with then undefeated Kansas City up next.  This week Pittsburgh has just one thing to focus on, beating the Jaguars and doing so with all offensive hands on deck now that Antonio Brown has been upgraded to probable.  And let's not forget the Jags may be #1 in yards passing allowed, but they're 21st against the run.  Having said that, the main problem with Jacksonville remains at the QB position, obviously, where outside of a few Blake Bortles' runs, graded extremely low again.  The passing game stunk with Bortles completing 12 of 23 passes for 87 yards, a pathetic 3.78 yards per pass attempt.  Pittsburgh will force Bortles to make plays he hasn't been able to make since entering the NFL.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home playoff games.  And we note that playoff teams that won no more than four games their previous season and are above .500 the current season have been dead-set go-against postseason teams, including 0-2 ATS this postseason (Jags & Rams both lost ATS last week). Finally, the Steelers are 11-1 ATS in revenge of a SU loss as home chalk.  The average final score in those 12 games: Pittsburgh 25-13.  We're laying the points with the Steelers, our Main Event on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the New England Patriots on Saturday night. Yes, the Pats' defense has not been great against the run at times this season. Yes, Tennessee has a nice pair of RBs. But whether the Patriots were going to face the Titans or Chiefs, they were going to have to slow down either team's ground game and put the onus of the offense on their opponents' passing game.  Therefore, New England didn't have to make huge defensive adjustments from what they were running on defense last week in practice just because it's Tennessee who's coming to town.  Marcus Mariota had a nice fourth quarter, but he was average for the game overall, completing 19 of 31 passes with 2 TDs and 1 INT.  KC choked the game away after building a 21-3 lead and they had no clue what to do offensively once Travis Kelce left with a concussion. The Pats don't panic and fall apart, they don't blow big leads, and outside of Tom Brady, they win games even when they lose star players during the course of a game.  Mariota still can't throw a decent ball outside the numbers and we won't be shocked if that's all New England allows here.  When the Pats load-up to slow the ground game the Titans' offense will rest on Mariota's shoulders.  We note that Dick LeBeau coached defenses have not matched-up well with the Patriots...just take a look at what New England did to the Steeler defenses he coached.  The Pats are on a 14-3 ATS run against teams with a winning record.  They're 5-1 ATS in their last six Divisional Round games.  And finally, they're on a dominating 8-2 ATS run when laying 11 points or more. New England won and covered as a double digit playoff favorite against Houston last postseason and we expect the same fate for Tennessee on Saturday.  I'm laying the points with the Patriots.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Alabama on Monday night.  We had the Tide (our top bowl play) in the win over Clemson. The Alabama defense dominated and QB Jalen Hurts didn't make any costly mistakes. We like the defense to take care of business again in the championship game. Georgia fought back from a 17 point deficit and upended Oklahoma, but the Sooners shot themselves in the foot repeatedly after building the lead. Both Georgia and Alabama picked up a few injuries in the wins, but we feel Bama is in better shape against a one-sided Georgia offense.  The Bulldogs are 110th in the nation in yards passing per game and if the Tide load-up to slow down the ground game, the onus of the offense falls on Jake Fromm's shoulders and that's a definite advantage for Alabama. Under Nick Saban, the Tide have played 45 games after holding an opponent to less than 3.25 yards per play in a game. They outscored those 45 teams by an average of 32-17.  They've played 32 games against teams that hold opponents to 17 or fewer ppg, outscoring those teams by an average of 29-14.  Alabama is a combined 51-26 ATS in those 77 games.  I'm laying the points with Alabama on Monday night.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday night.  Atlanta knows the terrain when it comes to getting to the Super Bowl and we believe it'll go a long way against an inexperienced team tonight.  And while the Rams finished the regular season atop the division and with an 11-5 SU record, they have little home field mojo, finishing just 4-4 SU.  Several weeks ago, we backed the Eagles in L.A. and watched Philly pile-up 43 points in a win and cover.  We mentioned the Rams' defensive issues and they aren't any better now, ranked 28th in yards allowed per game.  The Atlanta offense is decent on the ground and 8th in yards passing per game.  Defensively, the Falcons have allowed just 17 ppg in their last five contests and won 6 of their final 8 games to get here.  I'm taking the points with the Falcons on Saturday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day.  The reason the Tide deserve to be here in the opinion of Las Vegas is due to the fact they'd be favored over every team in college football, including Clemson.  Having said that, they're power rated to be 4.5 points better than Clemson on a neutral field.  We are jumping on Alabama out of the blocks to take advantage of line value.  We love interested bowl teams with A-plus running attacks and A-plus run defenses.  Very few teams are part of that club and Alabama is one of them.  In fact, they're the only team in college football ranked in the top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  We'll also get the Tide at the healthiest they've been for nearly the entire season.  Another important key factor - Clemson's Kelly Bryant has played well, but his TD to INT ratio is nothing special, with 11 TDs and 6 INTs.  He's no Deshaun Watson and let's not forget that Watson had to connect on 36 of 56 passes, for 420 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs in order for Clemson to eke by Alabama in last year's championship game.  In fact, the game winning score, as you'll remember, was a Watson TD pass with 1-second left on the clock.  Alabama's Jalen Hurts completed just 13 of 31 passes in the game and the Tide didn't have a 100-yard rusher, yet as well as Clemson played, again, it came down to the final play of the game.  Hurts is much more experienced, obviously, and he's thrown 15 TD passes with just 1 INT this entire season.  He doesn't make mistakes and he's rushed for 738 yards on 5.6 yards per carry with 8 TDs.  Damien Harris leads the running game with nearly 1,000 yards and 8.2 yards per carry.  He's one of three players on the roster to rush for more than 540 yards on the season.  We have nothing but respect for Clemson, but we feel they'll be on the short end of the talent card here.  I'm backing Alabama on January 1.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Notre Dame on Monday.  We give Ed Orgeron credit for keeping the team focused after the upset loss to Troy.  The Tigers won six of their final seven games with their only loss coming against Alabama.  LSU has also covered six in a row to end the season.  But outside of the impressive win over Auburn, the other wins down the stretch were against so-so opposition.  Piling up points against Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, is nothing special.  Notre Dame is the underdog due to public perception.  But the Irish were a true playoff candidate until a bad loss to a very good Miami team and to rival Stanford.  They shouldn't be ashamed of either loss.  Notre Dame should be able to run at and through LSU and wear down the Tiger defense.  We like the fact LSU has covered six straight and that Notre Dame has lost four in a row ATS.  This helps keep the line a little out of whack in our opinion.  Brian Kelly owns a solid 25-12 ATS record against teams playing better than .750 football.  We'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with Notre Dame on Monday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the 49ers on Sunday.  Jimmy G. will look to extend his perfect record as a starting QB to 7-0, including 5-0 with the Niners. Meanwhile, the Rams are expected to rest starters with nothing on the line as far as playoff positioning is concerned.  SFO plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cardinals on Sunday.  As tough as the season has been on Arizona from an injury standpoint and HC Bruce Arians' health, the Cardinals still have a shot to end Seattle's season, while finishing at .500, themselves.  We had Seattle last weekend and watched the Seahawks become the first NFL team since November, 1966, to win a game while finishing with more penalty yards than total yards.  While we won, we were disappointed in their offensive numbers, especially off the 42-7 loss to the Rams the previous week. We doubt they find a lot of success here.  After all, you can't run on the Cardinals and they're 6th in total yards allowed per game.  The pressure is on Seattle.  They're not THAT much better than Arizona and now the Cardinals have added motivation with Arians likely stepping down following this game.  The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in this series and Seattle has covered just one of their last five home games.  And finally, under Bruce Arians, the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 ATS in revenge of a loss by 7 points or less. The average final score: Arizona 31-10. We'll grab the points with the Cardinals, our Top Shocker on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.  Detroit is left with nothing to play for after failing to win a "must win" game against Cincinnati. That's a tough loss and I expect the Lions to be a little less than motivated for this one.  Green Bay will not only look to exact revenge for a 30-17 loss to the Lions earlier this season, while Brett Hundley was trying to learn the ropes, but while Detroit is disappointed with last week's loss, Green Bay will still be playing to win as they look to further Hundley's development.  After winning two in a row, the Packers were in next to impossible situations the last two weeks.  And before taking on the fierce Vikings' defense last week, Hundley had thrown 6 TD passes with just 1 INT in his previous three starts. Detroit's bad against the pass and owns the NFL's worst ground game. I expect the Pack to take advantage of both, even without WR's Adams and Nelson.  Green Bay is on a 7-0 ATS run on the road after scoring less than 10 points.  And under the direction of HC Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 25-12 ATS against teams that allow a completion rate of 64 percent or better, during the second half of the season.  I'm taking the points with the Packers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Louisville on December 30. We could be seeing Cardinals' QB Lamar Jackson for the final team as a collegiate signal caller and we expect a huge game from the 2016 Heisman winner, whether he's coming back to school or not. Jackson's numbers his junior season surpassed those of his Heisman winning campaign. After another season of taking care of the football, Jackson has 55 TD passes and just 15 INTs the last two seasons combined. Obviously, defenses have to worry about his running ability, also, and there's no way, not even with a month to prep, that most teams can account for his dual-threat capability. Mississippi State will also have to prepare for Jackson's talented and deep list of targets. Louisville has six players with more than 20 receptions on the season and five of those six average 11 to 16.5 yards per catch. The Bulldogs have relied on their defense this season and one reason has been due to a lack of a passing game on offense. MSU ranks 109th in yards passing per game and that was with a healthy Nick Fitzgerald behind center. Fitzgerald will miss the bowl game (knee) and the next best passer has completed just 21 of 46 attempts this season. MSU will have to rely on RB Aeris Williams, but that's no way to play successful "keep up" with the Cardinal offense. Finally, Mississippi State lost HC Dan Mullen to Florida. We like the hiring of Penn State OC Jim Moorhead, but he's not going to help them here. We expect a big performance from the Louisville offense and we'll lay the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Wake Forest on Friday.  This is a virtual home game for the Demon Deacons, but that's not one of the main reasons we're on them. Texas A&M reminds me a bit of UCLA heading into the bowls.  The Aggies are off a disappointing regular season. They have a defense that allowed a ton of points on the road, an average of 35 ppg.  They're middle of the road in just about every key category.  And A&M will use an assistant as their interim coach before Jimbo Fisher takes over after the bowl season.  A&M enters on a 0-5 ATS slide against ACC teams and will face an excited Wake Forest team that beat Louisville by 10 points, gained 587 yards against Notre Dame, came within 53-seconds and a 40-yard Seminole TD pass of a possible win in a 7-point loss to Florida State, and certainly didn't embarrass themselves in a 28-14 loss to Clemson.  Wake QB John Wolford has had a tremendous season with 25 TD passes and only 6 INTs.  He's a 64% passer, averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt, and he ran for 615 yards on 5 yards per carry.  We note that Wolford is 10th best in the nation in passing efficiency.  Wolford and the Demon Deacon offense will face the Aggies' defense, one that allowed 42 points or more on four occasions.  Texas A&M should score some points, but I'm betting their defense will be out-matched and the offense won't be able to keep up.  Besides A&M's 0-5 ATS spot mentioned above, they've covered just 16 of their last 54 against teams with a winning record.  Meanwhile, Wake is 8-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with Wake Forest, our Best Bet KO!  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Stanford on Thursday.  Both teams lost their final game of the season in conference title tilts.  But while Stanford came within a couple of plays of winning the Pac-12 in their 31-28 loss to USC, TCU's status in Big-12 play and nationally was essentially reaffirmed as a good but not elite football team.  The Horned Frogs were no match for the OU ground game in either meeting this season, even though the overall numbers say they're top-5 in the nation in yards rushing allowed.  QB Kenny Hill finished the season with 21 TD passes and just 6 INTs.  Those numbers are misleading.  Take away games against the hapless and out-manned defenses of Jacksonville State, SMU, and Kansas, and Hill's numbers drop to a measly 8 TD passes with 5 picks.  We're betting TCU's offense will have a tougher night against Stanford's defense, than the Cardinal offense will have against TCU's stop unit.  Stanford ranks 30th in the nation running the football and own the best player on the field in RB Bryce Love, who's expected to play.  We also feel the Cardinal offensive line will wear down the TCU defense leading to a decent night from QB K.J. Costello.  The Stanford signal caller threw 6 TD passes with no INTs in his final two games against Notre Dame and USC, while averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt.  The Cardinal will aim for their fourth straight bowl win and fifth in their last six tries.  They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight bowl games, 13-3 ATS off a loss, and 5-1 ATS in neutral site affairs.  Meanwhile, TCU has covered just two of their last eight bowl games and they're on a 2-9 ATS slide in neutral site games.  I'm taking the points with Stanford in Thursday's Alamo Bowl.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Purdue on Wednesday night.  Jeff Brohm has done a quick and terrific job in making the Boilermakers competitive and postseason bound.  We like the attention to detail on defense, especially late in the season when they held their final five opponents to an average of 84 yards rushing per game on 2.47 yards per carry.  At 6-6 SU and due to a recent lack of success prompting the hiring of Brohm, Purdue is no doubt excited to be here.  And while they were "just" 6-6, four of the losses came by one score. The Purdue defense will face a one-dimensional Arizona offense with little semblance of a passing game (110th in the nation).  If Purdue plays the kind of defense they did in their final five games, U of A will be hard-pressed to move the ball consistently.  Meanwhile, Arizona's defense has a lot of holes ranked 90th against the run, 122nd against the pass, and 117th in points allowed per game.  We have the better coached team, the better defensive team, and the more motivated team, and we're getting points.  Purdue heads into this one on a 4-0 ATS non-conference run, while the Wildcats have covered just one of their last six bowl games and have dropped four in a row ATS at neutral sites.  I'm taking the points with Purdue on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

The title of this game says "Arkansas State." Obviously, it's meant to be "Kansas State."  I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday.  Reports are saying Josh Rosen is not likely to suit-up tonight, (more on that in a bit).  We normally give Bill Snyder about a 1-point advantage over most college football coaches, but in this case he might be worth a little more.  After Jim Mora, Jr., was sacked, UCLA soon named Chip Kelly as their HC, but of course, his era begins after the bowl game.  The Bruins' named OC Jedd Fisch interim coach.  Fisch has been an assistant for 20 years with several different locales, but never a HC job.  It's his job to try and make the most out of a disappointing season for a team that lost its coach and whose star QB (concussion) will likely take a pass as he readies himself for the 2018 NFL draft.  Even if Rosen changes his mind and decides to play, he's less than 100% healthy and we'll play against the Bruins, anyway.  UCLA didn't play well outside of Pasadena as it was.  The Bruins lost all six games away from the Rose Bowl this season (1-5 ATS), allowing an average of 45.5 ppg! The Kansas State offense should have little trouble running at and through a Bruin defense ranked 129th in the nation against the run.  Meanwhile, the Bruins ranked 114th on the ground on offense and if Rosen doesn't play, they will struggle to throw over the top of the healthy K-State defense.  UCLA has struggled outside of Pac-12 play in general, currently on a 1-7 ATS slide in their last eight non-conference games. I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Seahawks on Sunday.  Dallas is fighting for their playoff lives, but are overvalued in this spot.  Zeke Elliott makes his return and the public certainly loves that scenario, but while Nazair Jones is doubtful, Seattle is finally looking a bit healthier on the defensive end. Michael Bennett, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner are all set to suit-up and take the field on Sunday.  Dallas won't be facing the same defense the Rams saw last week.  And the Cowboys might not have their best offensive linemen, Tyron Smith for this one.  At the very least, Smith will take the field well short of 100% healthy thanks to a sore knee. Meanwhile, several Cowboy defenders are hit-and-miss with sore backs.  Seattle's 9-2 ATS off two or more consecutive losses under Pete Carroll, holding those 11 opponents to an average of 14 ppg. Dallas has covered just 14 of their last 43 as home chalk under Jason Garrett.  And finally, the Seahawks are on a 16-8 ATS run with Russell Wilson at QB when getting points.  We'll take the points with the Seahawks on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The Lions are in virtual must-win mode and we don't believe they're going to accomplish their goal.  Cincy is off two horrible performances, about as bad as it gets, but we're betting they bounce back in what will be HC Marvin Lewis' final home game.  The Bengals lost an incredible emotional and physical battle with the Steelers a few weeks ago, and basically allowed a couple more times. We went against Cincy off the loss and cashed easily with the Bears.  Last week, the Bengals were still banged-up and listless.  They might not have Vontaze Burfict back (concussion), he's listed as questionable, they're not 100% healthy (what team is at this point) but they are healthier than they were the last two weeks.  Detroit has a lot to play for, but have rarely come through in these spots. They're 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven on the road against teams with a losing record and have covered just 7 of their last 24 December games.  Marvin Lewis teams have been tremendous money-makers late in the season during his Bengals tenure and after a couple bad losses, we expect a return to form, at least for this week.  Cincy is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 December games and 8-2 ATS at home against teams with a winning record. I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.  The Rams are heading to Nashville after five straight intense situations that began with games against the Vikings and Saints and ended with their last two against the Eagles and Seahawks.  That's obviously tough on any NFL team.  The Rams do have one weakness, their run defense and that's what Tennessee does best.  When the ground game finds success, Marcus Mariota is at his best.  Four of Mariota's five best passer rating games this season came at home and he'll face a banged-up Rams' secondary.  The Titans are 5-1 SU at home this season and on a 7-2-1 ATS run at home.  They're in virtual must-win mode and while not every team comes through in this situation, we believe the Titans will hang the number at the very least. Tennessee lost last time out, but they've covered four of their last five off a SU loss.  The Rams are in a tough spot and we'll grab the points with the Titans on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Toledo on Saturday.  We have a rematch from last year's bowls when Appalachian State beat Toledo, 31-28.  But we like what HC Jason Candle has done since taking over for Matt Campbell when he took the job in Ames, Iowa.  This year's Rockets' offense is a step above last year's. QB Logan Woodside is an accurate passer with plenty of weaponry around him and has tossed more than 90 TD passes with less than two dozen INTs in his career, including a 28-5 TD-INT mark this season.  He's completed 13 passes of 40 yards or more and hits the intermediate passes well.  Then there's the Toledo ground game.  Not only do the Rockets have Terry Swanson and his 1,300+ yards rushing, but they have two more RBs who combined for more than 1,300 yards between the two of them.  Taylor Lamb is a decent dual-threat QB for Appalachian State, but I highly doubt they're going to be able to push Toledo around on the ground without opening up the passing game early.  The problem for ASU is that Toledo ranked in the top-3 in pass efficiency defense in the MAC.  I simply don't believe App State will be able to "keep up" in the rematch.  Unfortunately, bowl rematches are so rare that there aren't any pertinent angles to mention.  But the Rockets have covered six of eight and they're 16-4-1 ATS after rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game.  We're laying the points with Toledo on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Central Michigan in Friday's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  Motivation means so much when it comes to minor bowls and the team that "owns it" is often the team that cashes tickets. In this case, the Wyoming fan base has reportedly shown little interest in traveling to Boise, something they do every other year in MWC play.  More importantly, QB Josh Allen isn't 100% healthy.  He's been bothered by a sore shoulder and is listed as questionable, along with a couple linemen on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  Even if Allen starts, he certainly didn't have the season many had projected, due to the lack of weapons around him.  Allen completed just 56% of his passes with a mediocre TD/INT mark of 13 & 6.  The Cowboys don't have much of a ground game either.  In fact, Trey Woods was the busiest Cowboys' back this season, carrying the ball 133 times, but averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. Wyoming finished the season ranked from 101st to 120th in yards passing per game, yards rushing per game, total yards, and points scored per contest. CMU was terrific against the pass this season. Offensively, four of senior QB Shane Morris' top five receivers are seniors.  And while the rushing stats may not look terrific, overall, they will have the most successful RB in this matchup in Jonathan Ward who ran for 6 yards per carry and finished just 12 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season.  The Chips are on a 5-0 spread run, while Wyoming went just 2-6 ATS in non-conference action.  Finally, I like CMU's added motivaton: The Chips' senior class will make their fourth straight postseason appearance and will be highly motivated to garner their first win. I'm backing Central Michigan in Friday's Idaho Potato Bowl.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with FIU in Thursday's bowl action.  What a turnaround for the Panther seniors and they have chance to cap it off with a bowl win.  Butch Davis has done a fantastic job in a short time and we like a couple things going for them here.   Temple's defense left a lot to be desired this season.  FIU owns the better ground game, which we really like when getting a TD and Temple wasn't too hot against the run this season.  FIU can hammer away with three RBs rushing for more than 420 yards on the season, including Alex Gardner, who leads the way with 765 yards rushing.  QB Alex McGough is a dangerous QB, who completed over 65% of his passes.  McGough threw 12 TD passes with just 2 picks over his final 6 games, completing over 70% of his pass attempts in four of the six games.  Finally, while this isn't a true home game, it is being played in St. Petersburg, which is a short hop, skip, and jump for Panther fans, giving them a bit of a home field feel.  We believe the line is too high and we'll grab the points with FIU on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Sunday night.  Neither team can afford a loss in what will be a virtual playoff game.  We're questioning what Dallas has done to deserve to be a FG road favorite in this matchup.  The only thing we learned from last week's win over the Giants is that New York gave up on the situation.  Dallas still struggles in the passing game on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  They've allowed 2 TD passes or more in eight games this season and the secondary is certainly one Oakland QB Derek Carr can do damage against and we believe he will.  Dak Prescott has had back-to-back strong performances, but against hapless and banged-up defenses playing with little motivation.  Before facing the Giants & Skins, Prescott hadn't thrown a TD pass in three games, while firing five INTs.  At the very least, he'll see his first motivated opponent in three weeks.  Dallas has covered just 28 of 69 as chalk under Jason Garett and they're 26-39 ATS in the second half of the season during his coaching tenure. Oakland is 4-3 SU in their last seven games and two of the three losses came against New England and resurgent Kansas City, while the third came at Buffalo, a tough spot following divisional games against rivals Kansas City and the Chargers.  We bring the scheduling up for both teams because we believe the results have led to faulty public perception and line value on the home dog.  I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Sunday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday.  Losing a game in the second half of the season is not unusual for the Patriots.  In fact, they did so again last season, losing 31-24 to Seattle.  Russell Wilson lit-up a shaky looking New England defense, completing 25 of 37 passes for 348 yards with 3 TD passes and no INTs.  The "what's wrong with the Pats' defense," folks came out of the woodwork.  New England then won their final 10 games, covering nine, including another Super Bowl win.  The Pats looked flat on Monday.  But they were far less than 100% due to injuries on both sides of the football, not to mention Rob Gronkowski's absence due to his one game suspension.  That won't be the case this week and we like the Pats to bounce back in this key contest.  New England has won four straight meetings, including each of the last three seasons by an average margin of 12.3 ppg.  The Pats are on a 24-8 ATS run, overall, and they're 8-2 SU & 7-2 ATS when Brady faces the Steelers.  Pittsburgh has been putting points on the board lately, but they also allow quite a few, giving up 86 points in their last three games and the loss of Ryan Shazier looms big against the Brady, Cooks, Gronk-led attack.  Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Brett Hundley threw a combined 7 TD passes with just 1 INT the last 3 weeks against the Steelers' defense. Meanwhile, I expect a return to form by the Patriots' bend-don't-break defense that Matt Patricia has directed so well. New England enters on a 7-0 ATS run when facing a good passing offense, those that average at least 260 yards passing per game.  And under Belichick, New England is 6-0 ATS off a SU divisional loss as a favorite of 6 or more.  I'm backing the New England Patriots on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.  We played against both of these teams last week and cashed both tickets.  Minnesota was in a tough spot at Carolina, which wasn't limited to, but included their third straight road game.  Meanwhile, the Bengals were banged-up off the extremely physical and emotional loss to Pittsburgh.  Cincy has dropped two in a row SU and they've covered eight of their last nine in this spot (after losing at least two straight SU).  The Bengals are normally undervalued on the road and they've fared well ATS in 61 tries under Marvin Lewis.  Recently,  the Bengals have gone 5-1 ATS off a double digit home loss and they have covered four in a row on the road against teams with a winning home record...once again, undervalued. We're getting a couple points extra from last week's look-ahead lines, thanks to Cincy's horrible outing against Minnesota.  We also note that Cincy's injuries on defense have been baked into this number.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Bears on Saturday night.  Chicago has made "hanging around" an art form.  Six of their nine losses came by one score. And last week, they not only caught Cincinnati in a tough situation, but followed through with an outstanding performance on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  We believe the success on the ground, which opened things up for Mitchell Trubisky will carry over into the game against the Lions.  Detroit has played poorly against both the run and the pass and it's added up to the 27th ranked defense in total yards allowed per game.  At the same time, the Lions have zero semblance of a ground game (dead last in the NFL) and QB Matthew Stafford has been under constant pressure because of it.  The Bears' defense is playing well, ranked in the top half of the NFL against the run and in the top 10 defending the pass.  The first meeting was decided by 3 points with Detroit winning 27-24 on a 52-yard Matt Prater FG with 95 seconds left in regulation.  Chicago ran for 222 yards on 30 carries, while holding the Lions to 65 yards rushing.  Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  And John Fox-coached teams have been terrific on the road following an outright win as a road underdog, posting an 11-2 ATS mark, while outscoring those 13 opponents by an average of 23-20.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bears on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky in Saturday's Cure Bowl in Orlando.  The Hilltoppers have climbed a bit as the chalk in this one and we believe rightly so, (and not enough). Their offense isn't as lethal as last season's, but they're facing an opponent in Georgia State that's "just what the doctor ordered."  GSU played three bowl opponents this regular season, losing all three by an average of more than 33 ppg, while allowing a total of 121 points, or 40 ppg.  Offensively, the Panthers can't run the football whatsoever, ranked 117th in the nation in yards rushing per game.  It was so bad that their top RB, Glenn Smith averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on the season.  It's no wonder the Panthers averaged less than 20 ppg in 2017. Western Kentucky isn't going to set the world on fire with their running game, but QB Mike White is the real deal.  The senior signal caller is a 66% passer over the last two seasons, throwing for more than 8,000 yards with 61 TD passes and 14 INTs.  I'm betting he caps off his time at WKU with a win and cover. In fact, the senior class has a chance to close out their college careers with a 4-0 bowl record.  We believe they will accomplish the goal and do so by margin. I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky on Saturday afternoon.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.  We went against Philly in week-13 and cashed when the Seahawks won 24-10. Philadelphia actually out-gained Seattle, 425 to 310, but one of the problems was a minus-2 turnover rate. And even worse for Philly, one of the turnovers was a Carson Wentz fumble at the Seattle 1-yard line, resulting in a touchback.  Philly was in a tough spot last week, but it's the Rams who're in the tough situation in week-14.  The Rams are off wins over New Orleans and on the divisional over Arizona.  Next up is a road date with division rival Seattle.  While the Rams would no doubt like to beat Philly in a quest for the best record in the NFC by the end of the season, beating Seattle next week is more important.  Most importantly for us, the Eagles own the NFL's second best ground game on offense and they're the stingiest in the league defending the run.  The Rams biggest weakness is their run defense, which ranks 27th in the league in yards allowed per game, while they're middle of the pack on the ground on offense.  The Eagles enter on an 8-1 ATS run  Finally, let's not fail to note that there has been a five point adjustment from last week's Westgate Super Book look-ahead line where the Eagles were posted as a 2 1/2 point favorite.  In fact, they opened a 2 1/2 point favorite in a few books this past Sunday before the Rams became the chalk. TE Zach Ertz is listed as questionable, but we like Philly in this spot whether he plays or not.  I'm grabbing the points with the Eagles, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.  Seattle won a key game last week when they beat Philadelphia at home.  But the win and the score were a bit misleading. Seattle was out-gained 425-310.  Also, the Seahawks benefited from a Carson Wentz fumble at the Seattle 1-yard line ending in a touchback and Seattle's ball, rather than a Philly touchdown.  The Seahawk offense has been all Russell Wilson virtually all season.  The offensive line leaves a lot to be desired, thanks in part to injuries, leading to the lack of a ground game outside of their MVP-type QB. Meanwhile, the passing game, without big playmakers, will face the stingiest pass defense in the NFL.  No one runs the football like the Jags this season and while he still doesn't light-up pass defenses, QB Blake Bortles has been taking care of the football in the passing game with 12 TD passes and 6 INTs since week-3.  We note that road teams with a winning record have covered just 15 of the last 54 if they are off a SU win as a home dog and are playing a team with a winning record.  We'll look for Jacksonville to extend their mini-run to 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.  I'm backing the Jaguars, our Beatdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday.  Chicago's offense looked pretty bad last weekend, but the defense has played well and they're catching the Bengals at the perfect time.  Cincinnati is not only off their toughest game of the season, both emotionally and physically, but they lost that game and will be short-handed today.  They took a hit at RB, but equally important, the defense took on serious water.  The secondary is in shambles, losing multiple players, including Adam Jones who was put on the IR after the game.  The leader of the defense, Vontaze Burfict is out this week, part of an injury issue at LB. Cincinnati's stop unit, already 28th in the NFL against the run, should see a steady dose of the best thing going for the Bears, RB Jordan Howard, who is just 115 yards from a 1,000 yards season, and gains over 4 yards per pop.  The ground game should give needed help to the passing game, while the defense is top half in the league against the run, the pass, and in total yards per game.  And let's not fail to mention the Cincinnati offense is ranked 25th to 31st in just about every important category.  As far as the techs are concerned, NFL home teams are 11-34 ATS if they have a .400-.490 record and have covered at least three straight games, provided they're playing a team with a losing record.  These home teams tend to get a public bounce due to covering recent games.  Those same home teams are on a 0-8 ATS slide whether they're facing losing or winning teams.  I'm backing the Bears plus the points, our Top Shocker on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the 49ers plus the points on Sunday.  We took two big SFO positives from last week's 15-14 win at Chicago: 1) Jimmy Garoppolo already has full understanding of the plays being called. 2) The Niner defense can certainly handle mediocre offenses.  SFO has won two of their last three games and have lost five games by three points or less (two losses in OT).  They're just 13 points away from a possible 7-5 SU mark.  The Niners came that close and did so without a true starting QB...but now they have one - in fact a very good one that Bill Belichick didn't want to lose. Houston has been hit by the injury bug as bad as anyone in the league.  The offense isn't good and is led by a backup QB.  The Texans have dropped five of six games SU, scoring an average of 12.5 ppg in their last four losses.  So, we have two teams with a combined record of 6-18 SU, but they're definitely headed in opposite directions.  SFO enters on a 5-2 ATS run on the road overall, and they're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record.  Houston is 4-7 SU & 3-7 ATS with Tom Savage at QB, including 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  I'm grabbing the points with the 49ers, our KO on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Panthers on Sunday.  We understand how well Minnesota has performed under HC Mike Zimmer, but this is an ultra tough spot for the Vikings.  Minnesota will be playing their third straight road game and fourth roadie in their last five games.  They're also running into a stingy defense looking to bounce back after a shaky performance last week in New Orleans.  The Panthers don't match up well with the Saints.  In fact, take away their two games against New Orleans and the Panthers are 8-2 SU in their other 10.  Carolina's defense is ranked in the top four in just about every important category, while Minnesota's offensive line is a bit banged-up for this contest.  The Viking defense has been stingy, themselves, but this is the type of defense we feel Cam Newton can find success against.  The only time Minnesota faced a true mobile QB was in their 23-10 win over Green Bay. However, Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game in the opening quarter and Brett Hundley wasn't ready for the call.  Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart have both received the thumbs-up to play this week and that's the final keys in this play. Carolina has covered five of six off a SU loss.  They have been focused off divisional games, going 11-3 ATS in this spot the last three seasons, and they're 18-3 ATS off a road loss under HC Ron Rivera with an average win margin of nearly 10 ppg.  We're grabbing the points with the Panthers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night.  Falcons' offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian continues to get out-witted by opposing defensive coordinators.  We saw it again this past Sunday when Atlanta's attack did nothing but sputter against the Vikings in a 14-9 Falcon loss.  Atlanta has now lost home games to Buffalo, Miami, and Minnesota, while scoring a grand total of 43 combined points.  Offensively, teams have found they can run against the Falcons and New Orleans is 3rd in the NFL in yards rushing per game.  The fact the Saints have balanced out the offense this season has made Drew Brees even more effective and it's one of the top reasons why this squad heads into week-14 with a 9-3 SU mark.  Another factor is a much improved defense that has allowed just 66 points, or 13 ppg in their last five road games.  The Saints are on a 13-3 ATS road run and they're 8-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record.  They're also 13-3 ATS against weak pass defenses, those that allow a completion rate of 61% or higher (Atlanta's defense fits that dubious distinction).  We also note the road teams has covered four of the last five meetings.  I'm backing the Saints on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Seattle Seahawks plus the points on Sunday night.  Pete Carroll's troops have taken care of business when installed as a home dog, going 12-4 ATS.  Seattle blew one against Atlanta, falling by a FG after choosing to run a fake FG late in the first half.  The failed attempt turned out to be the difference in the game.  They bounced back with a win and cover last week over SFO and the defense played well.  They've now held three of their last four opponents to 13, 16, and 17 points.  Yes, the Philly offense is a step-up in level of competition and yes, Seattle is short-handed in the secondary, missing Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman.  But we got the info we wanted to hear when Shaquill Griffin and Earl Thomas were both upgraded to "expected to play."  I'm not going to beat-up the Eagles, but we must note that 9 of their 10 wins came against teams with a combined record of 35 wins and 67 losses.  They've played just two games against teams who currently own a winning record and split those contests, losing to Kansas City 27-20, while beating Carolina, 28-23.  They only out-gained the Panthers by 5 yards (310 to 305) and Carson Wentz completed a combined 41 of 76 passes in the two games, a rather weak, 53.9% completion rate. Along with the 12-4 ATS mark mentioned above, the Seahawks have been a bankroll building team in the all-important month of December, going 19-6-1 ATS.  I'm taking the points with Seattle on Sunday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Chicago Bears on Sunday.  There's been a lot of love this week for SFO since it was announced former Tom Brady back-up, Jimmy Garoppolo would start behind center.  So much so, that the line has dropped from as high as 5 1/2, down to as low as 3.  The Bears were no match for the red-hot Eagles last week, but while they're just 3-8 SU this season, they finished within one score of their opponent in five of their losses; they have been competitive most of the season.  The key to this game will be whether or not Chicago can form a ground game, which will lead to more time in the pocket when Mitch Trubisky goes up top.  The ground attack is actually 8th in the NFL in yards per game.  Yes, they were shut down by the Eagles, but SFO is not Philadelphia.  The Niners are 30th in the league, allowing 129 yards rushing per game.  They're 26th against the pass and 28th in total yards allowed.  Offensively, SFO can't run the football and the change at QB isn't going to help the ground game.  Besides, Chicago is top 16 on defense against both the run and pass.  The Bears are on a 9-2 ATS run in their last 11 home games and they're on a 7-0 ATS run off a road loss by 14 or more over the last three seasons.  John Fox-coached teams are 12-3 ATS following a game where they scored less than seven points.  Chicago beat SFO 26-6 at home almost one year ago to the day (Dec. 4), and we expect another win and cover here.  I'm laying the points with the Bears, our Smackdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe on Saturday.  Florida State needs one more win for bowl eligibility and they're likely to get it here, but this pointspread is quite rich.  The Seminoles are off the big win over rival Florida.  They have a coaching staff not knowing if they’re coming or going.  And that's not good with a young team that's still a bit "wet behind the ears."  We should note that in the win over Florida, the Seminoles gained just 216 total yards and averaged under 3 yards per carry on the ground.  They’re routinely out-gained and rank 98th on the ground and 92nd through the air. UL-Monroe can move the football, averaging over 470 yards per game and they own the 19th best passing game (yards per contest) in college football.  QB Caleb Evans has 16 TD passes and just 6 INTs on the season.  He's averaged 11 yards per pass or more in 3 of his last 4 games.  And while UL-M is 6-2 ATS on the road, Fla State has covered just 1 of their last 6 at home.  We had UL-Monroe plus the points against Auburn and cashed the ticket and we'll back them again this week.  I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe, our High Noon Shocker! Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Rams on Sunday.  Tough outing for L.A. last week as they had their problems mounting their typical ground game.  But a couple of mistakes and miscues turned a 7-7 4th quarter tie into a 24-7 loss in Minnesota.  Having said that, the ground game and passing game have been strong all season, both ranked 9th in the NFL and New Orleans, in all due credit, have taken on more than their share of softies.  Before last week's comeback win over Washington, the Saints had beaten the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, the Bears, the Buccs, and the Bills in recent games.  The best record of the bunch is 5-5 (Green Bay is 1-3 without Rodgers).  Last week, against a decent offense, the Saints defense allowed 31 points on 456 yards.  Samaje Perine ran for 117 yards and Kirk Cousins had a fantastic game.  I do believe the Saints' defense can be had by a balanced attack and the Rams are certainly that.  Red hot NFL teams don't stay that way for too long and eight game winning streaks are obviously quite rare.  And under Sean Payton, the Saints have covered JUST 3 of 14 after scoring 25 or more in three straight games. The Rams have covered four of their last five games and the home team is on a 5-0 ATS run in the series.  I'm laying the points with the Rams on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Tyrod Taylor is back behind center after a one week failed test by Nathan Peterman.  Taylor and company are getting too many points against an overvalued KC Chiefs' team. Since their 5-0 start, (when they caught every break in the book), the Chiefs have dropped four of five.  Defense, or lack thereof, has been the main culprit. The Chiefs enter the weekend ranked 28th in the NFL in yards per play allowed and they've given up over 4.5 yards per carry on the ground.  I suspect LeSean McCoy is champing at the bit.  WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee) may miss this week's game, but we like the rest of the receiving corps against the vulnerable Chiefs' defense and we're quite pleased to see TE Charles Clay has been upgraded and is expected to start.  As far as the techs are concerned, road teams are 12-2 ATS if they're off at least three straight losses.  And you're 52-24 ATS playing against home favorites off a road loss, provided they're playing an opponent off a road loss by at least 21 points.  I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Texas A&M on Saturday.  Rumors abound regarding whether or not Kevin Sumlin's job is safe at College Station.  But he's a popular coach and we expect an all-out effort from Aggie players.  Outside of the collapse against UCLA in the season opener, A&M's losses have come against extremely talented teams, including Alabama and Auburn, along with a good Mississippi State squad.  LSU and Ed Orgeron have done a tremendous job righting the ship after the loss to Troy, but they're simply laying too many points according to our power ratings. LSU was out-gained last week in the win over Tennessee, but the biggest issue for A&M will be forcing QB Danny Etling to throw some passes.  Etling has thrown just 15 and 16 passes in his last two games, both LSU wins.  I think we'll see a concerted effort to slow the Tiger ground game and force Etling to make key decisions and passes.  Offensively for A&M, I like the fact Nick Starkel is getting more time behind center, tossing 5 TD passes and just 1 INT in his last couple games.  Starkel makes the offense more diverse and tougher to defend.  The Aggies have covered 4 straight road games and they're undervalued here.  I'm taking the points with Texas A&M on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday.  Gophers' HC P.J. Fleck signed an extension and his team still has a shot at bowl eligibility with a win on Saturday.  There's no denying the Gophers were absent between the ears in last week's ugly loss to Northwestern. We expect a refocused effort in their final home game and that 39-0 loss gives us even more value on the home dog. Wisconsin has been good enough to win all 11 games this season and they'll have the pressure of knowing winning-out means a playoff invite in all likelihood.  They'll have to grind this one out and hope Minnesota makes mistakes because the Badger passing game is unreliable.  QB Alex Hornibrook struggled again last week, completing just 9 of 19 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. The Badger signal caller now has more INTs (12) than TD passes (11) over his last eight games.  Minnesota's defense ranks 27th in total yards allowed per game and we expect them to give Wisconsin some trouble.  The Gophers run the football well, themselves, and this one promises to be a slug-fest in our opinion.  Minnesota is on an 8-2 ATS run off a game where they failed to reach 20 points, which is the case here.  They're on a 7-0 ATS run off a double-digit conference loss, and P.J. Fleck-coached teams are 8-3 ATS against teams that win by an average margin of at least 17 ppg, while the Gophers are on a recent and current 3-0 ATS run in those games.  Value lies with the home dog.  I'm grabbing the points with Minnesota.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Texas Longhorns on Friday night.  Texas and Texas Tech are programs truly headed in opposite directions.  It took a little time for Tom Herman to get things rolling in his first season in Austin, but we're starting to see why he was such a hot coaching prospect.  Texas enters just 6-5 SU, but they are two OT losses and a total of 11 points away from a 9-1 SU run.  Dual threat QB Sam Ehlinger will face a Tech defense that ranks 124th against the pass and 107th, overall.  Tech allows over 30 ppg on the season and the offense has disappeared when the level of competition has picked up.  Texas Tech scored a total of just 43 points in losses to Iowa State, Oklahoma, and TCU, over the last five weeks.  The Red Raiders struggle on the ground, which puts more pressure on the passing game and that's simply not getting it done.  We doubt they'll get any semblance of a ground game going against the Longhorns' excellent run defense, which means the Raider offense struggles.  As mentioned above, the programs are in different spots right now with Texas Tech losing five of their last six both SU & ATS with the losses coming by an average margin of more than 16 ppg.  Texas enters on a 7-2-1 ATS run, overall, and they have covered six of the last seven in this series.  I'm laying the points with Texas, our KO release on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with San Diego State on Friday afternoon.  We went against New Mexico last week and cashed with UNLV, a late and fortunate cover. The Lobos did not play well, but came with a huge effort in their senior day game and saw victory stolen from their clutches in the final minute.  UNLV won the game despite not playing well and struggling with defensive play-calling. The Lobos were crushed as they walked off the field.  UNM has now dropped six straight games and lost the previous five by an average score of 37-10.  The passing game is atrocious.  Led by QB Lamar Jordan (although he hasn't been the lone offender), the Lobos have completed 29 of 68 passes (43%) the last six games, averaging 28 yards per game and 2.47 yards per attempt, with no TD passes and 7 INTs.  SDSU lost to Fresno a few weeks ago, which keeps them from a berth in the MWC title game, but they can get their 10th win of the season this week.  HC Rocky Long and staff will have no trouble prepping for the option, especially since UNM has no passing game to worry about as mentioned above.  The Lobos allowed UNLV 534 yards of offense, including 363 yards rushing on 7 yards per attempt.  The defense is done. SDSU and their 14th ranked ground game should run at will, while the Aztec defense, ranked 11th against the run and 13th overall, will slam the door.  SDSU is on a 35-15-1 ATS conference run, including 19-6-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.  And along with their 0-4 ATS slide, UNM has covered just 8 of their last 31 after allowing at least 450 yards.  They don't bounce back well. San Diego State minus the points on Friday, our Afternoon Annihilator!  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the big points with Ball State on Tuesday night.  Both teams are wrapping up disappointing seasons, but BSU will be attempting to stave off a winless conference season.  There will be motivation for the Cardinals, while Miami may have given it their all last week in a tough 27-24 home finale loss to Eastern Michigan (we covered with EMU).  They're certainly a team I don't trust with this big of a point-spread. Miami RB's Kenny Young and Alonzo Smith are both questionable.  One or both may play, but both are far from 100% healthy and the next best runner is QB Gus Ragland who averages just 1.8 yards per carry.  No one else on the team has more than 12 carries on the season.  Speaking of Ragland, he's connecting on just 56% of his passes and we don't believe he'll be able to extend a lead by the margin Miami would need to cover the number. Miami has covered just one of eight as a favorite this season and lost five of those games, outright, while Ball State covered two of three this season as a dog of 10 to 20 points.  Last year's meeting went right to the wire with Miami scoring a TD in the final six minutes to win, 21-20.  The underdog Cardinals covered the spread and we expect them to do so again tonight, which would run the underdog streak in this series to 6-1 ATS.  I'm grabbing the points with Ball State on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night.  The Seahawks have had extra time to prepare for the Falcons, who are off a win over the Dallas Cowboys.  Atlanta couldn't have caught Dallas at a more opportune time. But the Falcons have had their issues, getting out-adjusted throughout the course of several games this season. We expect more of that in this one.  We also expect the Seattle defense to keep the ATL offense under control start to finish.  That's not quite as difficult as it was last season with Atlanta averaging under 22 ppg and scoring 17 or fewer points in four of their last six games. Seattle's a dominant 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 MNF appearances, while ATL has dropped five of their last six ATS, overall.  The Falcons have covered just five of their last 21 against teams that connect on at least 61% of their passes on the season.  We note that in 60 second half of the season games under Pete Carroll, Seattle has turned up the heat, averaging 26 ppg, while allowing just 17 ppg.  And finally, they're 19-7 ATS in weeks 10-13.  We're laying the points with the Seahawks on Monday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.  Injuries had devastated the Green Bay Packers and I'm not just talking about losing Aaron Rodgers.  The offensive line seems to take new "hits" every week and will be down three starters in all likelihood.  QB Brett Hundley needs his "wheels" if he's ever going to show improvement as an NFL signal caller, but even he has an injury, nursing a hamstring, which could "hamstring" his mobility behind the banged-up o-line.  And while the Packers continue to lose bodies on both sides of the line of scrimmage, the Ravens are getting healthy.  HC John Harbaugh commented on the state of his team's health being the best it has been all season.  Baltimore is on a 40-28 ATS run under Harbaugh when the line is in the +3/-3 range.  They're 7-3 SU/ATS off a bye and a decent 18-11 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that allow at least 7 yards per pass attempt. We expect better things from the Ravens over the remaining weeks, especially as players return to the field.  I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Wake Forest on Saturday night.  Both teams are bowl eligible and every additional win means a bigger and better bowl invitation.  But we doubt NC State can slow the juggernaut that is the Wake Forest offense.  The Demon Deacons have kicked it into another gear.  Wake averaged 48 ppg in their most recent three games against Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse.  Points scored weren't the only impressive stat.  Wake averaged 649 yards per game on 7.8 yards per play.  They ran for 258 yards per game on nearly 6 yards per carry, and the passing game has gone nuts the last three games, showing a 69% completion rate, an average of 391 yards passing per game on 9.8 yards per attempt with 10 TD passes and just 1 INT.  NC State has been involved in three tough games in a row, finally picking up a 17-14 win at Boston College after a pair of losses to Notre Dame and Clemson.  The pass defense can be had and as we noted above, Wake's passing game is on fire and QB Jim Wofford wouldn't mind exacting some revenge for last year's loss to the Pack.  The Demon Deacons enter on a 9-2-1 ATS run in ACC play.  They're on a 4-0-1 ATS run at home and have covered nine of the last 10 meetings in Winston-Salem.  I'm betting we'll see more of the same on Saturday.  I'm backing Wake Forest, our Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Idaho Vandals on Saturday afternoon.  Vandal fans weren't too happy when they found out last year that this season would be the program's last at the FBS level. Players haven't been too pleased either, expressing their frustration.  But Idaho, a team involved in a lot of close calls this season, still has a chance to reach a bowl-eligible 6th win if they win out.  Idaho is 3-6 SU, but have three winnable games to close the season.  First things first.  The Vandals had last week off and will be fresh, while Coastal Carolina will be playing for the 10th straight week, while having to make the long journey to Moscow, Idaho.  This is a worn out and banged-up football team with three QBs on the injury list (two are out), that have dropped nine straight games after a season-opening win over UMass.  They've allowed 37 to 52 points in six of their last eight games and an average of 44.5 ppg in their last four road games.  The Chanticleers are 109th against the pass and 104th in total yards allowed per game, while the offense ranks 106th. Idaho QB Matt Linehan may not play this week (wrist), in fact, we doubt he'll suit-up, but Idaho, unlike Coastal Carolina, has a capable backup in Mason Petrino, who had last week off to get ready for this one.  Idaho has been "money," currently on a 13-3 ATS run, and they have covered 20 of their last 27 conference games.  It's their home finale at the FBS level and we believe the Vandals will make the most of it. I'm laying the points with Idaho, our Afternoon Annihilator.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Penn State on Saturday.  We are 6-1 ATS playing against Nebraska with our opinions and bets on the season.  We haven't shied away from playing against the Huskers when installed as a decent-sized dog (see Ohio State) because this isn't the program we grew up with...not even close.  Mike Riley is out at the end of the regular season and now the QB situation may even be worse than it was. Tanner Lee has been horrible most of the season, but Lee suffered a concussion (questionable) in last week's loss to Minnesota.  Frosh Patrick O'Brien would start behind center if Lee can't go and making your first collegiate start at Happy Valley is not an ideal situation. We do want to point out we're on PSU whether it's Lee or O'Brien.  The Huskers can't run (114th) and can't stop the run (108th). Saquon Barkley, Trace McSorley and company have to be champing at the bit to get after this defense. Husker defenders have not caught on to new DC Bob Diaco's 3-4 base.  Penn State is 14-0 SU at home since the start of last season and they're on a 9-1-1 ATS run in their last 11 home games. They've outscored this season's six visitors by an average of 44-8!  No visiting team has scored more than 14 points against PSU this season.  This is the final home game for Penn State and we believe they'll jump out early and keep their foot on the gas against a team led by a lame duck coach.  I'm laying the points with Penn State, our Saturday Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Baylor on Saturday.  This promises to be a difficult task for Iowa State as they attempt to "get up" for a game in Waco after blowing a shot to control their own fate for a possible Big-12 title game appearance.  The Cyclones led Oklahoma State by two TDs at one point of the game and led 42-34 with 6 minutes to go in the fourth quarter before falling 49-42.  ISU had the ball inside the Oklahoma State 3-yard line with 30-seconds to go in the game and a chance to tie, before QB Zeb Noland threw an INT in the endzone, turning the ball over and essentially ending ISU's chances to play for a conference title. Cyclone HC Matt Campbell called it, "...a devastating loss."  Baylor HC Matt Ruhle has certainly followed his promise of doing things his way.  The Bears virtually sacrificed a season to set Ruhle's plan in motion.  The offense is starting to come around scoring a combined 98 points in three of their last four games, including 36 in a 2-point loss to West Virginia and 38 in a 29-point win over Kansas.  Baylor gained an average of 492 yards on 6.1 yards per play in those games.  The passing game flourished, connecting on 68% of their pass attempts for an average of 374 yards per game on 8.44 yards per attempt.  We should also note, the Bears, (Charlie Brewer to be specific), fired 8 TD passes in those three outings with just 1 INT.  They'll face an ISU defense ranked 93rd against the pass. Baylor has covered six of the last seven home meetings and we'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with Baylor, our Saturday Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe on Saturday.  We feature "sandwich spots" on our ESPN-Las Vegas radio show, but this one might be the "Dagwood" of them all.  Auburn is off the butt-kicking win over Georgia and has a date with Alabama in the Iron Bowl up next.  It won't be shocking if they do just enough to win by 24 points or so, while laying much more.  UL-Monroe is 4-5 SU on the season and are led by a capable QB in Caleb Evans who has 12 TD passes and just 3 INTs.  Evans is a 66% passer, averages about 9 yards per attempt, and he's a dual threat - just the kind of QB potentially flat defenses don't like to face.  UL-M runs for nearly 200 yards per game, ranks 27th in yards passing per game and 18th in total yards per game.  No, they aren't going to pull the outright upset of all upsets, but we'll take the three-dozen points or so.  The Warhawks are on a 7-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and we believe they're undervalued in this situation.  We're grabbing the points with UL-Monroe, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing UNLV plus the points on Friday night.  Despite the loss to BYU last time out, the Rebels still have a shot at postseason play, but must win their final two games.  UNLV catches a badly struggling New Mexico team tonight, no longer capable of reaching the magical six wins.  UNM has dropped five straight games, outscored by an average of 37-10.  The Lobos were favored in two of those games and installed as a single digit underdog twice, with just one expected mismatch during the run.  They're as one dimensional as it gets, with no semblance of a passing game.  In fact, New Mexico has completed just 45% of their passes the last three games, combined, averaging just 2.63 yards per attempt, with no TDs and 6 INTs.  The pass defense, meanwhile, has allowed 9 TDs with no INTs in the same three games.  UNLV enters on a 5-0 ATS run on the road (4-0 this season), and they've covered six of their last nine games, overall.  We believe the Rebels, led by RB Lexington Thomas (1,100+ yards rushing), will find little resistance on the ground with the occasional big-gainer through the air.  We'll back UNLV on Friday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan on Wednesday night.  EMU isn't going bowling and they're going to finish with a sub-.500 record, currently 3-7 SU with two games to go.  However, the Eagles have lost three games in OT, lost three more games by 1, 4, and 5 points, and even last week's 42-30 loss to CMU was a 5-point game with one minute to go in the contest.  EMU can pass the heck out of the football, averaging 270 yards passing per game, while the defense ranks 15th against the pass.  Miami got Gus Ragland back at QB last week and they beat Akron 24-14. Ragland threw 3 TD passes, but also threw 2 INTs.  Ragland has thrown at least 1 INT in each of his last three games, has completed just 54.5% of his passes on the season and again, will face a strong pass defense tonight.  And while the Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, EMU is on a 16-5 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss.  We expect a SU win for the road team tonight, but our play is to take the points.  Eastern Michigan, plus the points on Wednesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday night.  Outside of last week's disaster in Philly, the Broncos' defense has played extremely well this season, ranked 2nd in the league in total yards allowed per contest.  I expect a "chip on their shoulder" effort this week after last weekend's embarrassment.  They'll face a less than healthy Patriot offensive line with Marcus Cannon banged-up and the WR unit is far from healthy.  The Denver defense has matched-up well over the last several meetings, holding Brady in check more often than not.  The Patriots' offense hasn't been anything special of late, averaging just 21.75 ppg over their last four contests.  And you always have to lay a little extra when the Pats are involved, which explains their 2-6 ATS slide on the road against teams with a losing home record.  Denver enters on a 5-1 ATS run as a home dog and they're 6-2 ATS at home against New England.  I'm grabbing the points with the Broncos on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. I like going against teams that struggle throwing the football when they're laying more than a FG.  The Titans fit the mold.  They don't own the consistent passing game (27th in yards per game) to win by margin in most cases.  In fact, the Titans are 1-3-1 ATS when laying more than 2 points and have had a tough time just reaching 300 yards of total offense in several games of late. Tennessee has been a November fade, covering just one of their last eight. Cincy heads into this one, winners in three of their last five games and they own the defense (6th in total yards allowed) to slow the Titan offense.  I'm grabbing the points with the Bengals, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.  Tough situation for the Saints who're heading out on the road sporting a 6-game SU/ATS winning streak.  But take a look at the opponents.  We give New Orleans credit for winning against the teams in front of them, but they haven't faced a gauntlet of offensive firepower.  The Bills may not pile-up big passing yardage, but they can control a game with the ground attack.  They're a perfect 4-0 SU at home (3-0-1 ATS) and won by an average margin of more than a TD per contest.  Buffalo has been a winner at home with Tyrod Taylor behind center, going 18-7 SU and 16-8 ATS. And their passing game should be the best we've seen all season with newly acquired WR Kelvin Benjamin expected to suit-up.  Tough spot for the Saints, while I expect Buffalo at its best!  We'll grab the points with the Bills, our Underdog release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Colorado State on Saturday night.  We feel we're getting solid value with the home underdog in this one.  Boise State brings a five-game winning streak to Fort Collins, but only one of those truly impressed us, beating SDSU a few weeks ago.  Two of the wins came against dreadful BYU and Nevada.  Boise, we should note, has covered just three of their last 12 against teams with a winning record.  CSU has dropped two straight after starting the season 6-2 SU.  But they have been kind to the bankroll against teams with a winning record, going 10-2 ATS the last 12, and 17-6-1 ATS off a SU loss.  The offense is balanced, ranked 25th through the air and 36th on the ground.  In fact, this might be the most balanced attack Boise has faced in a while.  Meanwhile, the Broncos are 94th on the ground on offense, while the passing game is middle of the road.  We don't believe they'll be able to pull away by margin. In fact, we don't believe they'll win the game.  However, our play is to take the points with the highly undervalued Rams.  We're taking the points with Colorado State our DogPound Game of the Week.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with UCLA on Saturday.  Josh Rosen has been upgraded to probable for the Bruins and that means we'll have the nation's 10th ranked passing offense squaring off against the nation's 110th pass defense. Arizona State allowed an average of 36.4 ppg through their first four games of the season before getting a defensive reprieve and holding Washington and Utah to a combined 17 points mid-season. Unfortunately for ASU, the defense returned to form and has since allowed 48 points and 30 points to USC and Colorado.  Another issue for the Sun Devils is the fact they don't have much of a ground game, so we don't believe they'll be able to attack UCLA where the Bruin defense is at its most vulnerable. The Bruins need two wins in their final three games to reach bowl eligibility and they're a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season, averaging 40 ppg.  We backed Arizona State last week and got a fortunate late cover over Colorado.  But this week, we'll go against the desert dwellers and lay the points with UCLA, our Saturday night Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday night.  Butch Davis is all but gone following the end of the season and even in a win over out-manned Southern Miss last week, the Vols were unimpressive.  That might have been the team's last big effort for their embattled coach. Mizzou HC Barry Odom was about two steps from being shown the door after a 53-28 loss to Georgia dropped the Tigers to 1-5. Since then, Missouri has dropped the clutch instead of dropping football games, winning three straight by 47, 40, and 29 points. This is Missouri's home finale before finishing on the road at Vanderbilt and Arkansas, and they need two more wins to become bowl eligible.  The passing game is unstoppable right now and Tennessee's defense is prone to allowing a big ground game this week, also, ranked 123rd against the run.  The Vols' offense is unreliable and we don't believe they'll be able to "keep up" in this one.  It's certainly not the same team that clobbered the Tigers 63-37 a season ago.  The Vols are 8-24 ATS off a cover, while Mizzou has covered five straight games.  I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Mississippi State.  The more we looked into this game, the more reasons we found to back the Bulldogs.  Alabama continues to "take on water" due to the injury bug that has hit the defense.  The passing game is also suffering a bit, and MSU does two things we like a lot -- they run the ball extremely well and they stop the run.  The Bulldogs also have the type of QB, Nick Fitzgerald, (a dual-threat), which are the kind who have caused Alabama problems in the past.  Defensively, Miss State is not only strong against the run, but they rank 8th against the pass and 7th in total yards allowed per game.  And while Mississippi State is on a 21-5 ATS run in "Stark-Vegas" against teams with a winning road record, but Alabama is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record.  Dan Mullen will have his troops ready and we believe they're catching the Tide at the right time.  I'm taking the points with Mississippi State, our Top Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Purdue.  We backed Northwestern as a free play last week in Lincoln and came away with a fortunate OT win.  Overtime is the key word as it was Northwestern's third OT win in three weeks.  We don't expect the Wildcats to be at their sharpest or most energetic this week, especially since last week's win also accomplished their 6th win making them bowl eligible.  The 'Cats can't run the football and they're horrible against the pass.  Purdue still needs two wins to receive a postseason invite.  They aren't bad through the air and allow just 369 total yards per game on defense.  The Boilermakers are physical up front on offense and we believe they'll wear down the weary Wildcats. Purdue is 11-1-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record.  The road team has covered five in a row in the series and Purdue has covered seven of the last nine meetings. I'm taking the points with Purdue, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with FAU on Saturday.  This marks the second time in a few weeks that we have backed the Owls.  The first time paid off with an easy win and cover over North Texas. FAU is a year ahead of schedule and they're having no trouble tearing through the conference, winning five in a row, while covering four.  The 7th ranked ground attack led by Devin Singletary, (who has rushed for over 1,200 yards), will face a La Tech defense that simply can't stop the run.  The Bulldogs have been involved in four straight nail-biters and are led by QB J'Mar Smith, who isn't the most accurate passer, completing less than 57% of his attempts.  That's scary news considering FAU's ball-hawking defense has 15 INTs in their last five games, picking off at least two passes in each of those contests. We note that college road favorites are on a 65-25 ATS run if they beat the spread by at least 5 TDs (35 points) in their previous five games combined, provided they have a winning record and their opponent has a losing record.  La Tech has covered just one of their last six against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with FAU, our KO on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Tuesday night.  The Buffalo Bulls still have a shot at gaining the magical six wins on the season, but to do so they'll need to snap their four-game losing streak and win their final three games of the season.  The offense has averaged less than 16 ppg in the last three outings and and was out-gained in two of those.  The Bulls can't run the football and QB Tyree Jackson has just 3 TD passes with 2 INTs on the season.  In fact, in two seasons behind center Jackson has as many TD passes (9) as INTs thrown.  Buffalo is also 115th against the run on defense.  We're not saying BG's defense is anything special, but they have won their last two road games, winning 37-29 as a 17-point underdog at Miami-Oh, and winning 44-16 as a 1 1/2 point favorite at Kent State last time out.  We like the Falcon offense more than Buffalo's.  The underdog has covered 10 of the last 12 in this series and Bowling Green has covered four of the last five at Buffalo.  There are a few players listed as questionable for the Falcons, but we like them to keep this one close and hang the number, whether they play or not.  I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.  We were prepared to back Dallas with or without Zeke Elliott and we now know we'll have him on the field.  The Cowboys ground game will face one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  In fact, KC's defense is bottom of the league in yards per play allowed. They also rank 28th, 29th, and 30th, in run defense, pass defense, and total yards allowed per game, respectively. The Chiefs are a good team, but they aren't an elite team in our opinion. The Cowboys enter on a 9-1 ATS run off two straight road wins and they're 6-0 ATS after out-rushing their opponents by at least 75 yards two straight weeks.  I'm laying the points with the Cowboys, our Knockout on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Denver Broncos on Sunday.  The switch at QB from Trevor Simien to Brock Osweiler can only help Denver.  Simien had lost his confidence, looked lost at times, and at least Osweiler has won with this organization and is familiar with a couple of his receivers.  He's also making his first start of the season against the NFL's 27th ranked pass defense.  Mostly, we like the fact that the Denver defense is catching the Eagles at the right time.  Philly is banged-up on the offensive line and must face the NFL's 2nd ranked run defense, 6th ranked pass defense, and stingiest defense in total yards allowed.  This is the time of year when teams that have been knocked around a bit start to own spread value.  In fact, after the first month of the season, NFL non-favorites on the road (dogs or PK) are on a 46-18 ATS run provided they were beaten ATS by at least 49 points over the last five games.  These teams are undervalued ATS at this point of the season and Denver is one of those teams.  I'm grabbing the points with the Denver Broncos, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Colts on Sunday.  The adjustment of 6 points for the loss of Deshaun Watson is not enough as far as we're concerned.  A Tom Savage-led offense shouldn't be this big of a favorite over anyone, and now it's the underdog Colts with the best QB on the field.  Jacoby Brissett has completed over 60% of his passes as a member of the Colts and came up just short last weekend against the Bengals. Indy is actually on an 11-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing record and the road team is on a 4-0-2 ATS run in the series.  The value lies with the dog and we'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with the Colts, our Road Warrior release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Arizona State on Saturday night.  The more I looked into this one the more I agreed with the line movement on the Sun Devils.  ASU caught USC at the wrong time last week. The Trojans were a ticked-off football team that was beginning to get healthy where it mattered.  Bad timing for ASU.  Colorado beat Cal, but caught the Golden Bears off of a two-week thrilling span, beating Washington State in front of the home folks, then fighting back before losing by a point in OT to Arizona.  But I like the Sun Devils here.  Steven Montez saw the nation's 116th ranked pass defense last week.  Arizona State's LB's have really picked-up their play in recent weeks and will load up to slow Phillip Lindsay, forcing Montez to make key plays with his arm.  Let's not forget Montez was benched just a couple weeks ago for poor play.  We also get ASU in a big revenge spot.  The Devils had dominated the series before an ugly loss to the Buffs in Boulder last season. This marks just the 4th road game of the season for CU and they're just 1-2 thus far, getting shutout by Washington, losing to UCLA, scoring just 23 points against one of the worst defenses in the nation, and getting their lone win in a 36-33 squeaker over Oregon State.  The Buffs have covered just 3 of their last 12, while the Sun Devils are on a 10-4 ATS run at home and have covered four in a row in Tempe against Colorado.  We like Arizona State to win going away and we'll back them here.  Arizona State minus the points is our KO release.   Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Virginia Tech on Saturday.  Miami keeps sneaking by lesser teams than the one they're going to face this week.  The Hurricanes don't have RB Mark Walton and have been crushed on the ground the last two weeks.  Miami was out-rushed 176-59 by North Carolina and 264-136 by Syracuse. Miami averaged just 3.04 yards per carry in those two games, putting pressure on QB Malik Rosier.  The Hurricane signal caller has managed to stay away from the INT the last two weeks, but has completed just 52% of his passes.  He and his offense will face the nation's 14th ranked pass defense, 12th ranked run defense, and 9th ranked defense overall, allowing just 284.5 total yards per contest.  Va Tech DC Bud Foster will certainly have a wrinkle or two just for Rosier, and we're talking about a stop unit that allows just 11.5 ppg. Offensively, Va Tech owns a good passing game and ground attack, adding up to about 447 total yards per game.  They crushed Miami in the trenches in last season's 37-16 win and while the Hurricanes are making strides under Mark Richt, we don't believe Miami has made up enough ground quite yet.  Miami heads into this one 0-6 ATS off a win by six or less, while the Hokies are on a 12-3 ATS run as road chalk of three or less, outscoring the 15 opponents by an average margin of 13 ppg.  They're 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games, overall. I believe Miami will be exposed this week and I'm laying the points with Virginia Tech on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Southern Miss over Tennessee.  The Volunteers may have put forth their final true effort for lame duck HC Butch Jones last week, but still fell short against a Kentucky team they had dominated 31 of the last 32 years.  I certainly don't like them laying points off the loss.  Southern Miss got shocked last weekend by UAB. We suspected it and it came to fruition as the Eagles looked fat-and-sassy heading into the game on a 3 game winning streak, culminating with an OT win over La Tech.  Southern Miss looked spent from start to finish in the defeat.  But a winnable game against an SEC program like Tennessee will get the competitive juices flowing this week.  So Miss also needs one more win for a shot at postseason play and could very well get it here.  The Eagles face a Vols' defense allowing over 5 yards per carry and ranked 125th in yards rushing allowed per game, while So Miss makes opponents earn their yardage more often than not.  Southern Miss has covered 8 of their last 10 games, overall, and four straight on the road.  Tennessee is on a 6-20 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record.  I'm taking the points with Southern Miss, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Army on Saturday.  The Cadets have one of their best units in a while, have won four straight games, and have had an extra week to prep for Air Force.  We have the #1 (Army) and #2 (AFA) running games in college football, but Army has the advantage on defense.  Air Force ranks 120th against the run, allowing 231.9 yards per game on the ground and a whopping 32.6 ppg on the scoreboard. The Falcons are hot also, winning three straight games, but they allowed exactly 100 points in the three wins against UNLV, Nevada, and Colorado State.  The win over CSU was a bit misleading as the Rams hurt their own cause with turnovers.  Army has been stellar on the road off a home game in their previous contest, covering eight in a row.  And as reported, we also note the underdog is on a 14-1 ATS run in games involving Air Force. We're grabbing the points with Army, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Virginia on Saturday.  The Cavaliers stood 5-1 SU and looked like a postseason appearance was all but a lock.  Three weeks later and the Cavs have dropped back-to-back games, meaning there's work to be done. However, this might be their best chance to pick up a bowl qualifying win. Following Saturday's game against Ga Tech, the Cavaliers have road games at Louisville and Miami, and finish with a home game against Va Tech.  UVA has rebounded well off a loss by 17 or more under HC Bronco Mendenhall, covering six of eight.  They're 15-8 ATS as a dog in general the last 23 times.  And UVA is in true revenge.  The Cavaliers won two years ago, 27-21 and absolutely dominated Ga Tech last season, including gaining 25 first downs to 8 for the Jackets, but couldn't overcome a minus-3 turnover margin.  Ga Tech heads to town with offensive line injuries and a banged-up squad in general after a rough tilt with Clemson.  In fact, they have faced Clemson, Wake Forest, and Miami in their last three games with Va Tech up next.  Finally, while Ga Tech is undefeated ATS this season, this marks the first time they have been installed as road chalk this season and they're 0-3 ATS in this situation the last three times. I'm taking the points with Virginia, our Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Utah on Friday night.  No revenge here as the UCLA Bruins' disappointing season continues.  And Utah, in a rebuilding year gets "just what the doctor ordered." The Utes will want to run the ball with a power game, and draws the horrible UCLA run defense that ranks 130th in the country, allowing over 300 yards rushing per game.  Call it the perfect setup for the return of Utah's identity after dropping four straight games.  Bruin QB Josh Rosen is listed as questionable and we don't care if he plays or not.  While we respect his NFL talent, the fact is, it hasn't mattered playing on this team for this soon to be unemployed coaching staff.  UCLA's passing game will face a Utah defense with more INTs than TD passes allowed this season.  UCLA is on a 1-6 ATS slide in Pac-12 play, and while it's not a huge sample size, the Bruins have dropped four in a row ATS as a road dog of seven or less.  Let's also not forget they've covered just 11 of their last 32 games, overall, a true bankroll burner. We're laying the points with Utah, our Friday Night Smash. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Temple on Thursday night.  The Middies will look to exact revenge for their 34-10 loss in the last meeting -- and they may get it, but we feel this one is either a Temple outright win, or a very close loss. That's been Temple's M.O. of late, just 1-3 SU in their last four games, but 3-1 ATS.  The three losses came by a grand total of 13 points.  Navy expects to have QB Zach Abey (head) on the field, but it doesn't matter to us.  The nucleus of players who returned from last year's Temple team understand how to defend the option, while the offense should be able to pass the football on the 82nd ranked pass defense that's allowed 106 points in their last three games.  Temple enters on an 8-1 ATS run against defenses that allow at least 58% passing.  They're also on a 6-0 ATS run at home against teams with a winning record.  And finally, the Owls have covered eight of their last nine when lined as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points.  Temple is grasping first-year HC Geoff Collins game plan as the season progresses and we're backing them here. I'm taking the points with Temple on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Oakland Raiders plus the points on Sunday.  We had Oakland last week and cashed when the won late at Kansas City.  We felt that was a galvanizing victory for several reasons. While the general public is in love with the Bills in this one, we like the way the offensive line gave Derek Carr the time to throw last week and it certainly helps to have Amari Cooper back on track. They'll attack a Bills' defense ranked 26th against the pass.  The offense is also bad through the air and we feel they'll have fall behind and not be able to catch up in this one.  Oakland is on a 10-4 ATS run as a road dog and they're 8-1 ATS off an outright win when getting points.  I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Carolina on Sunday.  Last weekend's loss to Chicago couldn't have been more misleading or frustrating if you were a Panther backer.  The Panthers' defense was fantastic, holding the Bears to 5 first downs and 153 total yards, but Chicago's defense returned a fumble 75 yards for one TD, and had a 76 yard pick-6 for another TD.  Not only did the Bears score 14 points off those two plays, but with the ball inside the Chicago 30, the turnovers took a potential 14 points away from Carolina.  The Panthers were "that close" to a possible 17-3 win and cover.  Cam Newton is ticked-off and we expect the Panther offense to take care of business against the NFL's 30th ranked defense in both passing yards allowed and total yards allowed. Meanwhile, the 4th ranked Carolina defense will look to slam the door on a Tampa Bay offense that has been without Jameis Winston for a pair of practice days this week.  We aren't too crazy about the Buccs offense whether it's Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center.  Carolina has covered five of their last six road games and they've covered four straight in Tampa Bay.  The overvalued Buccs have failed to cover any of their last five games and they're 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record.  I'm taking the points with the Panthers on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Washington State, our KO in the Pac-12 on Saturday night.  Cougar HC Mike Leach gets a ton of credit for the passing game he brings to every coaching locale.  But this year's Washington State Cougars also know a thing or two about defense where they're ranked 7th in the nation in total yards allowed per game, including 3rd stingiest against the pass, and 23rd against the run.  And under his direction, the Cougars are a perfect 9-0 ATS against run-oriented teams, those that rush for at least 230 yards per game.  Arizona has been a pleasant surprise for some, but the fact is, this will mark their biggest step-up in level of competition this season.  The Wildcats don't bother passing the football, they run the ball as much as possible.  But their four FBS wins came against defenses ranked 101st, 122nd, 95th, and 111th, in total yards allowed per game.  Those teams also ranked 76th, 130th, 97th, and 119th against the run. The 'Cats played two teams with run defenses ranked in the top-60 (Utah and Houston) and lost both games.  Arizona will also face a team that does pass the football a lot, but also possesses the football the majority of the game and gains more than 20 first downs per game. I bring that up because under HC Rich Rodriguez, the Wildcats are 0-7 ATS against teams that average at least 21 FDs per game and hold the ball for at least 32 minutes per game.  Wazzu, as mentioned, fits the bill.  Luke Falk and his teammates didn't show up for their game at Cal a couple weeks ago off the win over USC, but bounced back with a 28-0 win over Colorado last week.  They held the Buffs to 174 total yards and just 80 yards rushing on 40 carries. That's the same CU offense that scored 42 against Arizona, while gaining 551 yards.  Besides the numbers already mentioned, WSU is 15-3 ATS (4-0 this season) against teams that complete more than 58% of their passes and they're 11-1 ATS (2-0 this season) against teams that average at least 5.9 yards per play.  Arizona is playing with revenge on their mind, but I'm betting they fall short.  I'm laying the points with Washington State on Saturday night. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kentucky on Saturday night.  Yes, we know about Tennessee's head-to-head dominance in this series.  But this might be the worst Vols' version of them all and Kentucky may not get a better chance of picking up the win.  If the Vols had any semblance of a passing game, (or a ground game for that matter), they wouldn't be led by a virtual lame duck coach.  Tennessee ranks 108th on the ground, 112th through the air, and 126th in total yards per game.  To top if off, RB John Kelly is one of a handful of players listed as out for this game (suspension).  Meanwhile, Kentucky owns their best defense in half-a-dozen years and should bounce back from last week's loss, while I expect the Wildcat offense to establish a run against the horrible Vols' run defense.  Tennessee has dropped six straight ATS off a loss by 20 or more...they don't bounce back well. Kentucky has covered 8 of their last 11 SEC games.  I'm laying the points with Kentucky, our KNOCKOUT release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday, our Road Warrior.  The Iowa Hawkeyes have dropped three of their last four games and while they're 4-3 SU, overall, they could very well be under .500, barely beating Iowa State, 44-41 in OT.  The offense is not a good one, ranked 103rd in yards rushing per game and total yards per game, while the passing game is also unreliable.  Iowa has been horrible in the red-zone, ranked 124th in this key category.  This is all too familiar under HC Kirk Ferentz.  Even their 45-16 win over hapless Illinois was misleading.  Iowa got out-gained by the Illini and led just 24-16 in the fourth quarter.  In fact, the Hawks have been out-gained in each of their last four games. Minnesota can run the football and we believe they'll find success against a Hawkeye defense that's been under the gun too often this season, having to make up for the weak offense.  The Gophers are extremely stingy on defense, equally good against the run and the pass. Minnesota dropped three straight games (two could have gone either way) before getting healthy against Illinois last time out and we believe it'll prove to be a stepping stone in the right direction.  The Gophers are on a 6-0-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and we'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Northwestern on Saturday.  Spartan HC Mike Dantonio has turned things around after a tough 2016 campaign, including a 14-10 win over Michigan.  But the wins haven't exactly come against a murderer's row of offensive units.  MSU beat Iowa, ranked 104th in total yards per game and the Hawkeyes can't run the football. They've beaten Michigan and their 99th ranked offense...Michigan has no passing game. And Dantonio's troops beat Indiana and their 94th ranked offense.  We understand you can only beat the teams that are put in front of you, but all four wins were close games.  This week, they face Northwestern, a step-up in offensive competition when you consider the Wildcats actually have a passing offense ranked in the top-50 (43rd, to be exact).  Defensively, Northwestern has slammed the door on opposing running games.  That's scary news for a Michigan State team that can't rely on the pass. The Spartans will attempt to exact revenge for a 54-40 loss last season, but we are betting they'll come up short of their goal.  I'm grabbing the points with Northwestern on Saturday, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Penn State on Saturday.  The last time Ohio State faced a legitimate offense (and defense for that matter) the Buckeyes took it on the chin at home in a one-sided loss to Oklahoma.  QB J.T. Barrett struggled as he has been known to do in step-up games during his collegiate career.  His downfield completions were few and far between through the OU game.  Since then, we've heard nothing but great things about his development.  But look at the competition.  Since the loss to the Sooners, Ohio State has faced the defenses of Army, UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska.  He's going to see "a little more resistance" this week against Penn State.  We like the look of Nittany Lion QB Trace McSorley last week against Michigan.  He showed he can make quick decisions and key plays without being completely reliant on RB Saquon Barkley.  Penn State not only opened up on the Wolverines in the second half, but out-gained U-M, 506-269 for the game.  Some believe the Nittany Lions might have a letdown...I'm not one of them.  Penn State enters on an 11-1-1 ATS run in Big-10 play, while going 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games, overall. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have covered just one of their last five home games. I'm grabbing the points with Penn State on Saturday, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Oregon State on Thursday night.  Former Beavers' HC Gary Anderson stepped aside, resigning from his position a couple weeks ago and even said he wasn't focused on the job at hand.  We saw immediate dividends when Cory Hall was named interim coach. The offense was bottled up and hamstrung under Anderson, but Hall opened things up in his first game calling the shots and Oregon State gained over 560 yards of offense in a 36-33 loss to Colorado. OSU led the Buffs until the final 1:34 of the game.  This is not the same attack Stanford would have prepped for just a few weeks ago and that makes things a little more difficult. Meanwhile, whether RB Bryce Love (ankle) plays or not, Stanford will look to power their way to victory with the ground attack paving the way.  So, even if successful, we are betting the Cardinal will not be able to pull away by a margin greater than the spread. Stanford also has bigger fish to fry coming up, facing Washington State, Washington, Cal, and Notre Dame, in that order, to close the season.  The Cardinal are 1-6 ATS off a cover. Oregon State is on a 9-3 ATS conference run and they're 26-9 ATS after losing a Pac-12 game by no more than seven points.  Stanford has won the last seven meetings, but the last five have come by an average of just 13 ppg.  I'm grabbing the points with Oregon State on Thursday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Washington Redskins on Monday night. Payback is on the minds of the Skins after losing 30-17 to Philadelphia in week-one.  The final score was misleading, it was a 19-17 game with 2+ minutes to go in the fourth quarter before the Eagles kicked a FG and scored late on a fumble return for a TD.  The Skins were sloppy in the loss and Kirk Cousins had yet to find his stride. But since then, Cousins has thrown 8 TD passes with just 1 INT, and the Skins now own the NFL's 8th best passing game, averaging over 250 yards per game. The Skins will face the league's 29th ranked pass defense.  Washington has been a true road warrior for the bankroll, covering 10 of the last 13 away from home.  They're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Philly.  Washington has also been great at solving good run defenses over the last three seasons, going 6-0 ATS against teams that allow no more than 90 yards rushing per game.  The coaching staff gets another shot at this type of defense, while Cousins and company get another shot to atone for the week-one loss.  We'll back them here.  I'm grabbing the points with the Redskins on Monday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the Denver Broncos on Sunday, our KO release.  Denver couldn't have looked any worse on Sunday night in their loss to the Giants.  The offense was horrible, the defense was gouged on the ground.  But after playing about as bad as they possibly can, we like the Broncos to bounce right back today. The Chargers are back home where they're winless after winning two in a row on the road.  But that's the main thing when it comes to LAC.  We don't want to play them in their new "digs" where a false home field advantage is somewhat baked into the number.  L.A. is not supporting this team and half the crowd at the soccer field in Carson will be wearing Denver colors.  As far as the on field matchups are concerned, Denver runs well, while the defense is a beast, outside of the anomaly against the Giants.  Meanwhile, the Chargers are dead last against the run, and while they have "found" Melvin Gordon of late, we don't feel he'll be able to get the job done on the ground against the Broncos.  The Chargers enter on a 2-8-1 ATS slide, overall.  They've covered just 7 of their last 26 home games (0-3 SU/ATS this season), and Denver has covered 5 of the last 6 road games in this series.  Different home venue for the Chargers...same results. I'm backing the Denver Broncos, our KO release on Sunday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.  We fully understand the reason for the 10+ point adjustment following the injury to Aaron Rodgers. We also believe the adjustment is too great.  New Orleans is on a nice run, winning and covering three straight games, and as NFL teams are in this situation, they're overvalued, receiving a lot of recent hype.  Brett Hundley has been waiting for his chance, while learning behind arguably the best QB in the league.  While no one makes the throws from all angles like Rodgers, Hundley can certainly extend plays with his feet like his mentor.  The latest injury updates certainly help our cause with both Green Bay starting OTs expected to play.  HC Mike McCarthy has done a tremendous job getting his team ready off a division game, going 12-1 ATS in this spot the last 13 times, including a 4-0 ATS run off a division loss.  They're also 20-6 ATS off a two-game road trip.  We're taking the points with the Packers on Sunday, our Dogpound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Fresno State on Saturday night.  This line opened higher offshore, but in Nevada, the typical opening line was 8.  One shop opened it 10, but lowered it two full points, literally 16-seconds later because it was a bad number.  But even at the current number, the value still lies with the underdog.  SDSU has played several close games this season and got their doors blown off last week.  We saw this coming a few weeks ago when we went against SDSU and cashed a ticket with a top play release on Northern Illinois. The Aztecs won 34-28, but NIU covered. The alarming part of the equation was the fact the Aztecs got out-gained 429-263 and had to rely on three non-offensive TDs.  We cashed with Fresno, taking the big points against Alabama early this season.  The Bulldogs only two losses in six games came on the road in back-to-back weeks to Bama and Washington.  While we like the offensive attack HC Jeff Tedford has employed, we really like the fact the run defense is as stingy as it is.  FSU ranks 14th against the run and they have the ability to slow SDSU's bread-and-butter ground game like Boise did last week. Even if the Aztecs are up in the fourth quarter, you know Rocky Long will look for his team to grind out the clock rather than fire the ball through the air, meaning he'd gladly accept a 3 point win.  SDSU ran for just 83 yards on 39 carries in the 31-14 loss to Boise and adding to the negative, the Aztecs just lost their chance and dream at a New Years Day bowl.  SDSU is just 2-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are on a 12-3-1 ATS run, overall.  They're 6-0 ATS against teams with a winning record and have covered five of the last six meetings.  I'm grabbing the points with Fresno State, our MWC Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Arizona on Saturday night.  We had the Wildcats a few weeks ago when they upended Colorado as an underdog.  Arizona has found one heck of a running game under HC Rich Rodriguez, ranked 4th in the nation on the ground.  They'll face a Cal defense that's middle of the pack against the run and horrible on pass defense.  The Golden Bears caught Washington State at the right time, the Cougars were about as flat as I've seen a team this season. But I don't like the fact Cal is so bad at running the football.  They average under 100 yards rushing per contest and will run into trouble in this one. Arizona pressured a better passing game, led by UCLA QB Josh Rosen into mistakes, forcing three interceptions in last week's win.  Cal is "built" a lot like UCLA in that they're one-dimensional...all pass.  I expect similar results.  We note that in games with a +3/-3 line range, teams that run for at least 5.25 yards per carry are on a 36-13 ATS run provided they gained at least 6.5 yards per carry in their previous game.  I have been a big fan of teams that run the football well for decades and nothing has changed.  I'm laying the points with Arizona, our KO release on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday afternoon.  It took a couple games for the FAU offense to catch on to OC Kendal Briles game plan. But now that they have, the Owls have been virtually unstoppable.  After step-up games against Navy and Wisconsin, the Owls have scored 45, 31, 38, and 58 points in their last four games, winning three of them.  The offense churned out an average of 505 yards on 6.2 yards per play in the four games, including 351.5 yards rushing per game on 6.57 yards per carry.  We also note that QB Jason Driskel connected on 63% of his passes. North Texas has won three in a row, including last week's last minute game winning drive against UTSA, culminating in a 22-yard TD pass with 10-seconds left in the game.  But after that emotional high, I expect North Texas to get beat in the trenches in this one, especially facing FAU's strong ground attack.  It certainly doesn't hurt our cause that while North Texas was in a battle to the final gun, FAU had the week off to prep for the Mean Green. North Texas has covered just 7 of their last 22 road games, while the Owls have covered four in a row at home against teams with a winning road record.  UNT is 4-14 ATS the last 18 times on the road following a SU win as an underdog. And finally, as chalk, Lane Kiffin is off to a 3-0 ATS start at FAU.  I'm laying the points with Florida Atlantic, our C-USA Chalk GOY.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Purdue on Saturday.  Rutgers picked up their second win of the season this past weekend and now have two wins against bottom-feeders.  Take wins over hapless Illinois and outmanned Morgan State out of the mix and the Illini are not only winless in four games, but the offense scored a grand total of 44 points, while averaging just 259.5 total yards per game on 3.9 yards per play.  Rutgers can't run the football and the passing game averaged 148.5 yards per game in the four losses on just 4.64 yards per attempt, with 2 TD passes and 8 INTs. Boilermaker HC Jeff Brohm has done a terrific job turning around the team's level of competitiveness in his first season.  Their only losses came by single digits against Louisville and Wisconsin and a 28-10 loss to Michigan that was a 14-10 game well into the fourth quarter.  Purdue has a great shot to win their next three games and take a 6-3 record into the conference stretch run.  They enter on a 6-1 ATS run, overall, and a 13-3-2 ATS run on the road.  Meanwhile, Rutgers has covered just 5 of their last 17 Big-10 games. I'm laying the points with Purdue on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Nevada on Friday night.  The Wolf Pack have started to find their rhythm and identity under HC Jay Norvell.  Nevada beat Hawaii outright as a 3 1/2 point dog last time in Reno, and last week, took Colorado State to the brink, before falling 44-42, easily covering the 25 point spread.  The Pack have gained 566 and 564 yards in their last two games on 7.79 yards per play.  Nevada ran all over Hawaii, but when CSU took away their running game last week, the Pack went up top in a major way.  In fact, Ty Gangi and company have completed 51 of 76 passes (67%) the last two games, for 796 yards, with 9 TD passes and just 1 INT.  That's an average of 10.47 yards per pass.  Air Force is catching a different Nevada version than the one we saw earlier this season.  The Falcons fought back from a 27-0 deficit last week to beat UNLV 34-30.  But AF has not faced a decent pass offense this season, taking on mostly run-oriented offenses. Air Force heads into this one on a 1-9 ATS slide in conference play and they're on a 0-6 ATS slide on the road against teams with a losing home record, typically overvalued in this situation. Meanwhile, Nevada is 4-1 ATS in their last five MWC games and while this is Norvell's first season, the Wolf Pack have been a second half of the season team, covering 8 of their last 9 in this role.  With the way the team is coming together after a sluggish start, we see more of the same.  I'm grabbing the points with Nevada, our Friday night Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Oakland Raiders on Thursday night.  We went against the Chiefs this past weekend and watched Pittsburgh pile-up 230 yards in the first half, while holding KC to 6 yards.  The Steelers slammed the door on the Chiefs' ground game, holding Kareem Hunt in check, forcing Alex Smith to attempt to beat them with the passing game.  The Chiefs aren't generally that type of team.  We expect the Raiders' defense to put pressure in the same areas.  Oakland's biggest issue the last four games has been a lack of consistent offense.  They've had bumps and bruises to key players, including QB Derek Carr, while there has also been too much focus on deep, downfield passes, rather than earning their way downfield.  We mentioned in last week's analysis against Pittsburgh, that KC's defense is quite beatable.  They rank 24th against the pass, 27th against the run, and 29th in total yards allowed per game. Oakland may be getting "just what the doctor ordered," as they attempt to right the offensive ship.  KC has been the right side in this series of late, but we expect that to end here.  And we note that NFL teams that average at least 4.5 yards per carry have covered just 27 of the last 85 times provided they ran for no more than 50 yards in their previous game.  KC fits the bill.  We're taking the points with the Raiders, our Hammer on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.  Read some reports and it sounds like the wheels are coming off in the Pittsburgh clubhouse.  We're not buying it. Pittsburgh has a great chance to right the ship with a game on Sunday against the undefeated KC Chiefs.  But while KC is 5-0 SU, the defense has been soft. The Chiefs rank 21st against the run, 25th against the pass, and 27th in total yards allowed per game.  The Steelers should be able to run the football, loosening up the KC defense as Big Ben and company look to rebound from last week's nightmare performance (we had the Jags).  We note that the Steelers are not only on a 16-5 ATS run after allowing 30 points or more, but they have handled Chief-like defenses over the last few years.  Mike Tomlin's troops are 8-2 ATS against teams that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry and they're on a 6-1 ATS run against teams that allow at least 6 yards per play. Finally, while the Steelers draw everyone's attention and the Chiefs would like to exact revenge for the January 2017 playoff loss, KC does have bigger fish to fry, following Sunday's game with a Thursday night meeting with fellow AFC West rivals Oakland.  We like Pittsburgh to bounce back here and we're grabbing the points.  The Steelers plus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the L.A. Rams on Sunday.  We were on the Jaguars last week and cashed the ticket when they whipped the Pittsburgh Steelers, 30-9. Neither team was expected to be 3-2 SU at this point of the season, but we like what we're seeing out of the Rams.  The passing game is the real deal.  Jared Goff is getting solid protection, while the defense is tough in the trenches, thanks in part to Aaron Donald. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's passing game still leaves a lot to be desired.  Blake Bortles' accuracy issues are at an all-time low, completing just 54.8% of his passes this season.  Bortles and the Jags had that huge game against Baltimore in London, but take that one contest out of the mix and Bortles has just 3 TDs with 4 INTs in his other four games this season.  When the Rams have the ball, we expect to see a solid ground game with Todd Gurley leading the way against the NFL's 31st ranked run defense.  With Gurley keeping the defense honest, Goff and his receiving corps should find consistent success. We note that NFL non-favorites (PK or underdog) playing .510 to .600 football, are on a 38-14 ATS run if they're off a division loss and are playing a team with a winning record.  The Rams fit the bill.  I'm taking the points with the L.A. Rams on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.  Tough spot for Houston.  They're off four straight big games and took a serious hit on the defensive side of the football with the loss of J.J. Watt, along with several bumps and bruises to all units on the defensive side of the football. Cleveland is 0-5 SU, but three of their losses came by a FG each.  The Browns have been outstanding against the run and in total yards allowed per game, where they rank 5th stingiest in both. The offense made the right move, benching rookie DeShone Kizer for 2nd year QB Kevin Hogan.  Kizer wasn't improving and Hogan came off the bench to complete 16 of 19 passes to earn the job.  Houston has next week off and this could be a tough spot to stay focused.  Cleveland enters on a 19-7-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a losing home record.  We believe the Browns are in for another close one giving us solid value with the big number.  I'm grabbing the points with the Browns, our Sunday Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday night.  We're getting value here with the road team.  Fresno State owns three wins on the season, but while Jeff Tedford's team may be improving from the last couple Bulldog versions, the fact is the wins came against three dreadful softies.  UNM is 3-2, also, and 2 points away from a 4-1 mark.  Their most impressive win came against Air Force, a 56-38 victory.  The Lobos outscored the Falcons 42-17 after halftime and rolled up 509 yards, including 363 yards rushing on 9 yards per carry.  New Mexico has had an extra week to prep for Fresno.  While the ground attack is going to be tough on the Bulldogs' defense, the Lobos' underrated defense will be well versed in slowing down FSU.  New Mexico's top-35 in both run defense and in total yards allowed per game.  We note that road teams averaging at least 5.25 yards per carry are on a 24-5 ATS run if the line is in the +3/-3 range and they're off a game where they ran for at least 6.25 yards per pop.  UNM fits the bill.  I'm backing New Mexico, our Shocker on Saturday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Michigan State on Saturday.  Minnesota's P.J. Fleck got off to a great start with the Gophers winning their first three games.  But as soon as the level of competition picked up, their deficiencies were magnified.  Minnesota has lost back-to-back games to Maryland and Purdue, giving up 31 points in each game, while getting out-gained by 218 yards.  The fact is, Minnesota QB Conor Rhoda struggles in the passing game, connecting on just 24 of 51 passes the last two games with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. The defense has been pushed around allowing 5.6 yards per carry to the Terps and 4.6 yards per carry to the Boilermakers.  Michigan State's off the big win over Michigan and we don't expect a letdown.  HC Mike Dantonio has been here before.  His team is decent on the ground, while the defense ranks 4th, 12th, and 12th, in total yards allowed, yards passing allowed, and yards rushing allowed.  The Spartans hold their opponents to 16.4 ppg.  One final note: we expect the Spartans to be able to pass the football when needed.  Mich State will face a Gophers' defense that has seen their last two opponents connect on 67% of their passes (43 of 64) for 461 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs. MSU enters on an 18-6-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and the road team is on a 4-0 ATS series run.  I'm laying the points with Michigan State, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Ohio State on Saturday.  Nebraska played their tails off in an emotional atmosphere in Lincoln last weekend, but eventually their lack of direction, lack of identity, and lack of coaching adjustments were too much to overcome in a 38-17 loss to Wisconsin.  The wheels seem "this close" to coming off. They won't be able to run the football against the Buckeyes, which means 3rd and long for QB Tanner Lee and that means INTs.  Defensively, the Huskers still haven't caught on to DC Bob Diaco's 3-4 base.  That's not a shocker since it can take a full year to learn the nuances of the 3-4, along with the fact Nebraska doesn't own the personnel to operate it properly.  Ohio State has scored 54 points or more in each of their last three games and beat this Nebraska team, 62-3 a season ago. They're on a 44-20-1 ATS run on the road, while the Huskers have dropped four in a row ATS at home.  I'm laying the points with Ohio State, our Big-10 Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UAB on Saturday.  The Blazers are getting little respect from the folks "behind the counter" and we'll look to take advantage here.  UAB is not only a perfect 3-0 SU at home, but they're 4-1 ATS.  The Blazers even knocked off Louisiana Tech 23-22 as a double digit underdog.  You can't throw the football on UAB and they're at their best running the football on offense.  We like both qualities.  Especially with the pass defense facing a MTSU offense that can do nothing but pass the football.  Take away the aerial game and I'm betting the Blue Raiders will struggle.  MTSU is also suffering from a few key injuries, including starting QB Brent Stockstill (doubtful) who continues to nurse an injured collarbone. John Urzua has seen a lot of action behind center and has thrown more INTs (6) than TD passes (5).  In fact, he's thrown just 13 TDs with 14 INTs in his career at MTSU.  UAB enters on a 4-0 ATS run at home and a 4-0 ATS run in conference action. They're on a 6-1 ATS run, overall.  I'm backing undervalued UAB plus the points on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with New Mexico State on Saturday.  The Aggies are playing their third straight road game, but the line more than makes up for it, not to mention the opponent.  Georgia Southern won't be able to "keep up" in our opinion.  The Eagles are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS with the push coming in a 34-point loss to Auburn.  The offense ranks 117th in total yards per game and 123rd in ppg, averaging just over 15 points per contest.  NMSU owns one of the nation's most prolific pass offenses and will score against a defense allowing nearly 40 ppg.  The Aggies are 4-1-1 ATS this season, while the Eagles enter on a 1-7-1 ATS slide at home.  We also note that CFB road favorites are on a 33-12-1 ATS run if their opponent failed to cover their previous game.  We're laying the points with New Mexico State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Panthers on Thursday.  We have a couple of hot teams meeting in Carolina tonight, but we believe the home team will emerge victorious.  Home teams have been the way to go on Thursdays, covering 14 of the last 21.  Home teams are also on an 8-1 spread run the last nine times on Thursday night football.  We don't bet on teams due to trends and angles, but this one tells the story on just how difficult it can be to travel to another team's home address on a short week. The Eagles have pressing issues up front on offense where they'll miss OLT Lane Johnson, out tonight due to a concussion.  The Eagles' offense did not fare well last season in games Lane Johnson missed.  At the same time, the Panthers won't have center Ryan Kalil, but they have been dealing with his injuries for a few weeks, it's nothing new.  Carolina QB Cam Newton lost favorite target Greg Olsen in week-2, but he's developed strong aerial relationships with Ed Dickson, Christian McCaffrey, and David Funchess.  The Panther passing game will lineup against the NFL's 29th ranked pass defense tonight.  Meanwhile, the Panthers' stop unit is top-6 in rushing, passing, and total yards allowed - a big step-up in level of competition from what the Philly offense has seen in their last three games (Giants, Chargers, Cardinals).  Besides the trends mentioned above, NFL teams are on a 26-7 ATS run off an outright win as an underdog, provided they and their current opponent are both playing .750 or better football.  I'm laying the points with the Panthers on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Green Bay is a banged-up on the offensive line and at RB where Ty Montgomery is doubtful and Jamaal Williams is expected to play, but less than 100% healthy.  WR Devante Adams is also questionable (concussion), and on defense, the team has been hit by nagging bumps and bruises to the LB corps.  However, the main reason we're backing the Cowboys, besides line value, is the fact they should be able to run the football against the Pack, who allow 111 yards rushing per game.  That's the Cowboys' desired game plan.  Run the football and take pressure of the passing game.  That's when Dak Prescott is at his best and we believe it'll be the difference in this game.  Dallas got the ground game going last week, rushing for 189 yards.  They're on a 7-0 ATS run, winning by an average score of 31-17, after rushing for at least 175 yards in their most recent game.  We'll back the 'Boys here.  I'm laying the points with the Dallas Cowboys, our Beatdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.  Tough spot for the Bills who're on the road for the second straight game and the third time in their last four weeks. We had the Bills when they knocked-off the Denver Broncos, but that was a great spot to play against Denver.  The Buffalo offense has been one dimensional with the second worst passing game in the NFL, averaging just 171 yards per game.  The running game is better, but nothing to write home about, ranked 16th in the league.  The Bills have been doing it with defense, but we like the look of the Bengals with a new play-caller making a difference.  After a horrible output in week's one and two, the Bengals' offense has scored a combined 55 points the last two games and QB Andy Dalton is 46 of 57, 81% passing, with 498 yards, 6 TDs and ZERO interceptions.  Cincy will also be motivated looking to atone for their first two home games this season when they were outscored 33-9 by Baltimore and Houston.  The Bills roll into town on a 3-12 ATS slide on the road against defenses that hold the opposition to no more than 4.75 yards per play. Meanwhile, Cincy is on a 10-2 ATS run after covering two of three games, doing well with momentum.  And they're 7-2 ATS after holding opponents to less than 100 yards rushing.  I'm laying the points with the Bengals, our Mismatch on Sunday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona on Saturday night.  We had the Buffaloes last weekend and cashed when they covered the number against UCLA.  But we were surprised Colorado couldn't do more on offense against the horrible UCLA defense that has failed to stop anyone. That's a scary situation for CU moving forward.  With their personnel losses and assistant coaching losses on defense before the season, we felt the Buffs wouldn't be in position to capture the Pac-12 South, but again, their last two games have left a lot to be desired on the offensive side of the football, also.  Arizona has had two weeks to prepare for CU and their two losses were "this close" to landing in the win column, with no shame in losing close games to Utah & Houston.  The Arizona defense is strong against the run and CU is not the same on the ground in 2017. If the Buffs can't run, they're in trouble with Steven Montez tossing six INTs to just 7 TDs this season.  In fact, Montez has a poor, 14 to 11, TD-INT ratio in his career.  Arizona is 8th in the nation on the ground and we believe they'll run the ball effectively, while slowing down the run on defense, putting pressure on the CU passing game.  The Buffs have covered just one of their last six home games and again, are overvalued.  Meanwhile, the road team has covered five in a row in this series.  I'm grabbing the points with Arizona, our Upset Special in the Pac-12.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.