I'm laying the points with Alabama on Monday night.  We had the Tide (our top bowl play) in the win over Clemson. The Alabama defense dominated and QB Jalen Hurts didn't make any costly mistakes. We like the defense to take care of business again in the championship game. Georgia fought back from a 17 point deficit and upended Oklahoma, but the Sooners shot themselves in the foot repeatedly after building the lead. Both Georgia and Alabama picked up a few injuries in the wins, but we feel Bama is in better shape against a one-sided Georgia offense.  The Bulldogs are 110th in the nation in yards passing per game and if the Tide load-up to slow down the ground game, the onus of the offense falls on Jake Fromm's shoulders and that's a definite advantage for Alabama. Under Nick Saban, the Tide have played 45 games after holding an opponent to less than 3.25 yards per play in a game. They outscored those 45 teams by an average of 32-17.  They've played 32 games against teams that hold opponents to 17 or fewer ppg, outscoring those teams by an average of 29-14.  Alabama is a combined 51-26 ATS in those 77 games.  I'm laying the points with Alabama on Monday night.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day.  The reason the Tide deserve to be here in the opinion of Las Vegas is due to the fact they'd be favored over every team in college football, including Clemson.  Having said that, they're power rated to be 4.5 points better than Clemson on a neutral field.  We are jumping on Alabama out of the blocks to take advantage of line value.  We love interested bowl teams with A-plus running attacks and A-plus run defenses.  Very few teams are part of that club and Alabama is one of them.  In fact, they're the only team in college football ranked in the top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  We'll also get the Tide at the healthiest they've been for nearly the entire season.  Another important key factor - Clemson's Kelly Bryant has played well, but his TD to INT ratio is nothing special, with 11 TDs and 6 INTs.  He's no Deshaun Watson and let's not forget that Watson had to connect on 36 of 56 passes, for 420 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs in order for Clemson to eke by Alabama in last year's championship game.  In fact, the game winning score, as you'll remember, was a Watson TD pass with 1-second left on the clock.  Alabama's Jalen Hurts completed just 13 of 31 passes in the game and the Tide didn't have a 100-yard rusher, yet as well as Clemson played, again, it came down to the final play of the game.  Hurts is much more experienced, obviously, and he's thrown 15 TD passes with just 1 INT this entire season.  He doesn't make mistakes and he's rushed for 738 yards on 5.6 yards per carry with 8 TDs.  Damien Harris leads the running game with nearly 1,000 yards and 8.2 yards per carry.  He's one of three players on the roster to rush for more than 540 yards on the season.  We have nothing but respect for Clemson, but we feel they'll be on the short end of the talent card here.  I'm backing Alabama on January 1.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Notre Dame on Monday.  We give Ed Orgeron credit for keeping the team focused after the upset loss to Troy.  The Tigers won six of their final seven games with their only loss coming against Alabama.  LSU has also covered six in a row to end the season.  But outside of the impressive win over Auburn, the other wins down the stretch were against so-so opposition.  Piling up points against Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, is nothing special.  Notre Dame is the underdog due to public perception.  But the Irish were a true playoff candidate until a bad loss to a very good Miami team and to rival Stanford.  They shouldn't be ashamed of either loss.  Notre Dame should be able to run at and through LSU and wear down the Tiger defense.  We like the fact LSU has covered six straight and that Notre Dame has lost four in a row ATS.  This helps keep the line a little out of whack in our opinion.  Brian Kelly owns a solid 25-12 ATS record against teams playing better than .750 football.  We'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with Notre Dame on Monday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Louisville on December 30. We could be seeing Cardinals' QB Lamar Jackson for the final team as a collegiate signal caller and we expect a huge game from the 2016 Heisman winner, whether he's coming back to school or not. Jackson's numbers his junior season surpassed those of his Heisman winning campaign. After another season of taking care of the football, Jackson has 55 TD passes and just 15 INTs the last two seasons combined. Obviously, defenses have to worry about his running ability, also, and there's no way, not even with a month to prep, that most teams can account for his dual-threat capability. Mississippi State will also have to prepare for Jackson's talented and deep list of targets. Louisville has six players with more than 20 receptions on the season and five of those six average 11 to 16.5 yards per catch. The Bulldogs have relied on their defense this season and one reason has been due to a lack of a passing game on offense. MSU ranks 109th in yards passing per game and that was with a healthy Nick Fitzgerald behind center. Fitzgerald will miss the bowl game (knee) and the next best passer has completed just 21 of 46 attempts this season. MSU will have to rely on RB Aeris Williams, but that's no way to play successful "keep up" with the Cardinal offense. Finally, Mississippi State lost HC Dan Mullen to Florida. We like the hiring of Penn State OC Jim Moorhead, but he's not going to help them here. We expect a big performance from the Louisville offense and we'll lay the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Wake Forest on Friday.  This is a virtual home game for the Demon Deacons, but that's not one of the main reasons we're on them. Texas A&M reminds me a bit of UCLA heading into the bowls.  The Aggies are off a disappointing regular season. They have a defense that allowed a ton of points on the road, an average of 35 ppg.  They're middle of the road in just about every key category.  And A&M will use an assistant as their interim coach before Jimbo Fisher takes over after the bowl season.  A&M enters on a 0-5 ATS slide against ACC teams and will face an excited Wake Forest team that beat Louisville by 10 points, gained 587 yards against Notre Dame, came within 53-seconds and a 40-yard Seminole TD pass of a possible win in a 7-point loss to Florida State, and certainly didn't embarrass themselves in a 28-14 loss to Clemson.  Wake QB John Wolford has had a tremendous season with 25 TD passes and only 6 INTs.  He's a 64% passer, averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt, and he ran for 615 yards on 5 yards per carry.  We note that Wolford is 10th best in the nation in passing efficiency.  Wolford and the Demon Deacon offense will face the Aggies' defense, one that allowed 42 points or more on four occasions.  Texas A&M should score some points, but I'm betting their defense will be out-matched and the offense won't be able to keep up.  Besides A&M's 0-5 ATS spot mentioned above, they've covered just 16 of their last 54 against teams with a winning record.  Meanwhile, Wake is 8-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with Wake Forest, our Best Bet KO!  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Stanford on Thursday.  Both teams lost their final game of the season in conference title tilts.  But while Stanford came within a couple of plays of winning the Pac-12 in their 31-28 loss to USC, TCU's status in Big-12 play and nationally was essentially reaffirmed as a good but not elite football team.  The Horned Frogs were no match for the OU ground game in either meeting this season, even though the overall numbers say they're top-5 in the nation in yards rushing allowed.  QB Kenny Hill finished the season with 21 TD passes and just 6 INTs.  Those numbers are misleading.  Take away games against the hapless and out-manned defenses of Jacksonville State, SMU, and Kansas, and Hill's numbers drop to a measly 8 TD passes with 5 picks.  We're betting TCU's offense will have a tougher night against Stanford's defense, than the Cardinal offense will have against TCU's stop unit.  Stanford ranks 30th in the nation running the football and own the best player on the field in RB Bryce Love, who's expected to play.  We also feel the Cardinal offensive line will wear down the TCU defense leading to a decent night from QB K.J. Costello.  The Stanford signal caller threw 6 TD passes with no INTs in his final two games against Notre Dame and USC, while averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt.  The Cardinal will aim for their fourth straight bowl win and fifth in their last six tries.  They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight bowl games, 13-3 ATS off a loss, and 5-1 ATS in neutral site affairs.  Meanwhile, TCU has covered just two of their last eight bowl games and they're on a 2-9 ATS slide in neutral site games.  I'm taking the points with Stanford in Thursday's Alamo Bowl.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Purdue on Wednesday night.  Jeff Brohm has done a quick and terrific job in making the Boilermakers competitive and postseason bound.  We like the attention to detail on defense, especially late in the season when they held their final five opponents to an average of 84 yards rushing per game on 2.47 yards per carry.  At 6-6 SU and due to a recent lack of success prompting the hiring of Brohm, Purdue is no doubt excited to be here.  And while they were "just" 6-6, four of the losses came by one score. The Purdue defense will face a one-dimensional Arizona offense with little semblance of a passing game (110th in the nation).  If Purdue plays the kind of defense they did in their final five games, U of A will be hard-pressed to move the ball consistently.  Meanwhile, Arizona's defense has a lot of holes ranked 90th against the run, 122nd against the pass, and 117th in points allowed per game.  We have the better coached team, the better defensive team, and the more motivated team, and we're getting points.  Purdue heads into this one on a 4-0 ATS non-conference run, while the Wildcats have covered just one of their last six bowl games and have dropped four in a row ATS at neutral sites.  I'm taking the points with Purdue on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

The title of this game says "Arkansas State." Obviously, it's meant to be "Kansas State."  I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday.  Reports are saying Josh Rosen is not likely to suit-up tonight, (more on that in a bit).  We normally give Bill Snyder about a 1-point advantage over most college football coaches, but in this case he might be worth a little more.  After Jim Mora, Jr., was sacked, UCLA soon named Chip Kelly as their HC, but of course, his era begins after the bowl game.  The Bruins' named OC Jedd Fisch interim coach.  Fisch has been an assistant for 20 years with several different locales, but never a HC job.  It's his job to try and make the most out of a disappointing season for a team that lost its coach and whose star QB (concussion) will likely take a pass as he readies himself for the 2018 NFL draft.  Even if Rosen changes his mind and decides to play, he's less than 100% healthy and we'll play against the Bruins, anyway.  UCLA didn't play well outside of Pasadena as it was.  The Bruins lost all six games away from the Rose Bowl this season (1-5 ATS), allowing an average of 45.5 ppg! The Kansas State offense should have little trouble running at and through a Bruin defense ranked 129th in the nation against the run.  Meanwhile, the Bruins ranked 114th on the ground on offense and if Rosen doesn't play, they will struggle to throw over the top of the healthy K-State defense.  UCLA has struggled outside of Pac-12 play in general, currently on a 1-7 ATS slide in their last eight non-conference games. I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Toledo on Saturday.  We have a rematch from last year's bowls when Appalachian State beat Toledo, 31-28.  But we like what HC Jason Candle has done since taking over for Matt Campbell when he took the job in Ames, Iowa.  This year's Rockets' offense is a step above last year's. QB Logan Woodside is an accurate passer with plenty of weaponry around him and has tossed more than 90 TD passes with less than two dozen INTs in his career, including a 28-5 TD-INT mark this season.  He's completed 13 passes of 40 yards or more and hits the intermediate passes well.  Then there's the Toledo ground game.  Not only do the Rockets have Terry Swanson and his 1,300+ yards rushing, but they have two more RBs who combined for more than 1,300 yards between the two of them.  Taylor Lamb is a decent dual-threat QB for Appalachian State, but I highly doubt they're going to be able to push Toledo around on the ground without opening up the passing game early.  The problem for ASU is that Toledo ranked in the top-3 in pass efficiency defense in the MAC.  I simply don't believe App State will be able to "keep up" in the rematch.  Unfortunately, bowl rematches are so rare that there aren't any pertinent angles to mention.  But the Rockets have covered six of eight and they're 16-4-1 ATS after rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game.  We're laying the points with Toledo on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Central Michigan in Friday's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  Motivation means so much when it comes to minor bowls and the team that "owns it" is often the team that cashes tickets. In this case, the Wyoming fan base has reportedly shown little interest in traveling to Boise, something they do every other year in MWC play.  More importantly, QB Josh Allen isn't 100% healthy.  He's been bothered by a sore shoulder and is listed as questionable, along with a couple linemen on both sides of the line of scrimmage.  Even if Allen starts, he certainly didn't have the season many had projected, due to the lack of weapons around him.  Allen completed just 56% of his passes with a mediocre TD/INT mark of 13 & 6.  The Cowboys don't have much of a ground game either.  In fact, Trey Woods was the busiest Cowboys' back this season, carrying the ball 133 times, but averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. Wyoming finished the season ranked from 101st to 120th in yards passing per game, yards rushing per game, total yards, and points scored per contest. CMU was terrific against the pass this season. Offensively, four of senior QB Shane Morris' top five receivers are seniors.  And while the rushing stats may not look terrific, overall, they will have the most successful RB in this matchup in Jonathan Ward who ran for 6 yards per carry and finished just 12 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season.  The Chips are on a 5-0 spread run, while Wyoming went just 2-6 ATS in non-conference action.  Finally, I like CMU's added motivaton: The Chips' senior class will make their fourth straight postseason appearance and will be highly motivated to garner their first win. I'm backing Central Michigan in Friday's Idaho Potato Bowl.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with FIU in Thursday's bowl action.  What a turnaround for the Panther seniors and they have chance to cap it off with a bowl win.  Butch Davis has done a fantastic job in a short time and we like a couple things going for them here.   Temple's defense left a lot to be desired this season.  FIU owns the better ground game, which we really like when getting a TD and Temple wasn't too hot against the run this season.  FIU can hammer away with three RBs rushing for more than 420 yards on the season, including Alex Gardner, who leads the way with 765 yards rushing.  QB Alex McGough is a dangerous QB, who completed over 65% of his passes.  McGough threw 12 TD passes with just 2 picks over his final 6 games, completing over 70% of his pass attempts in four of the six games.  Finally, while this isn't a true home game, it is being played in St. Petersburg, which is a short hop, skip, and jump for Panther fans, giving them a bit of a home field feel.  We believe the line is too high and we'll grab the points with FIU on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky in Saturday's Cure Bowl in Orlando.  The Hilltoppers have climbed a bit as the chalk in this one and we believe rightly so, (and not enough). Their offense isn't as lethal as last season's, but they're facing an opponent in Georgia State that's "just what the doctor ordered."  GSU played three bowl opponents this regular season, losing all three by an average of more than 33 ppg, while allowing a total of 121 points, or 40 ppg.  Offensively, the Panthers can't run the football whatsoever, ranked 117th in the nation in yards rushing per game.  It was so bad that their top RB, Glenn Smith averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on the season.  It's no wonder the Panthers averaged less than 20 ppg in 2017. Western Kentucky isn't going to set the world on fire with their running game, but QB Mike White is the real deal.  The senior signal caller is a 66% passer over the last two seasons, throwing for more than 8,000 yards with 61 TD passes and 14 INTs.  I'm betting he caps off his time at WKU with a win and cover. In fact, the senior class has a chance to close out their college careers with a 4-0 bowl record.  We believe they will accomplish the goal and do so by margin. I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky on Saturday afternoon.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm playing the Under between Ohio State & Wisconsin on Saturday.  We have teams that'll take similar approaches when they meet.  The Buckeyes and Badgers are two of the better running teams in the nation and both coaches would probably rather not have to count on their QB and the passing game.  J.T. Barrett is expected to play, but he isn't 100% healthy after leaving last week's game with a knee injury.  And Wisconsin HC Paul Chryst would prefer it if Alex Hornibrook doesn't have to throw more passes than he did last time out when he attempted 19.  Besides running games shortening the game we also have two top-notch defenses making life tougher on each other's air attacks. Ohio State has allowed a combined 37 points in their last three games, combined, while Wisconsin hasn't given up more than 17 points in any of their last eight games.  For what it's worth, Paul Chryst teams are 2-8 ATS against opponents that allow no more than 3.25 yards per carry and they're 1-5 ATS against teams that allow no more than 4.5 yards per play.  Power rating totals say this one should have been posted in the 40s.  We're taking the Under between Ohio State & Wisconsin.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe on Saturday.  Florida State needs one more win for bowl eligibility and they're likely to get it here, but this pointspread is quite rich.  The Seminoles are off the big win over rival Florida.  They have a coaching staff not knowing if they’re coming or going.  And that's not good with a young team that's still a bit "wet behind the ears."  We should note that in the win over Florida, the Seminoles gained just 216 total yards and averaged under 3 yards per carry on the ground.  They’re routinely out-gained and rank 98th on the ground and 92nd through the air. UL-Monroe can move the football, averaging over 470 yards per game and they own the 19th best passing game (yards per contest) in college football.  QB Caleb Evans has 16 TD passes and just 6 INTs on the season.  He's averaged 11 yards per pass or more in 3 of his last 4 games.  And while UL-M is 6-2 ATS on the road, Fla State has covered just 1 of their last 6 at home.  We had UL-Monroe plus the points against Auburn and cashed the ticket and we'll back them again this week.  I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe, our High Noon Shocker! Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Texas A&M on Saturday.  Rumors abound regarding whether or not Kevin Sumlin's job is safe at College Station.  But he's a popular coach and we expect an all-out effort from Aggie players.  Outside of the collapse against UCLA in the season opener, A&M's losses have come against extremely talented teams, including Alabama and Auburn, along with a good Mississippi State squad.  LSU and Ed Orgeron have done a tremendous job righting the ship after the loss to Troy, but they're simply laying too many points according to our power ratings. LSU was out-gained last week in the win over Tennessee, but the biggest issue for A&M will be forcing QB Danny Etling to throw some passes.  Etling has thrown just 15 and 16 passes in his last two games, both LSU wins.  I think we'll see a concerted effort to slow the Tiger ground game and force Etling to make key decisions and passes.  Offensively for A&M, I like the fact Nick Starkel is getting more time behind center, tossing 5 TD passes and just 1 INT in his last couple games.  Starkel makes the offense more diverse and tougher to defend.  The Aggies have covered 4 straight road games and they're undervalued here.  I'm taking the points with Texas A&M on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday.  Gophers' HC P.J. Fleck signed an extension and his team still has a shot at bowl eligibility with a win on Saturday.  There's no denying the Gophers were absent between the ears in last week's ugly loss to Northwestern. We expect a refocused effort in their final home game and that 39-0 loss gives us even more value on the home dog. Wisconsin has been good enough to win all 11 games this season and they'll have the pressure of knowing winning-out means a playoff invite in all likelihood.  They'll have to grind this one out and hope Minnesota makes mistakes because the Badger passing game is unreliable.  QB Alex Hornibrook struggled again last week, completing just 9 of 19 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. The Badger signal caller now has more INTs (12) than TD passes (11) over his last eight games.  Minnesota's defense ranks 27th in total yards allowed per game and we expect them to give Wisconsin some trouble.  The Gophers run the football well, themselves, and this one promises to be a slug-fest in our opinion.  Minnesota is on an 8-2 ATS run off a game where they failed to reach 20 points, which is the case here.  They're on a 7-0 ATS run off a double-digit conference loss, and P.J. Fleck-coached teams are 8-3 ATS against teams that win by an average margin of at least 17 ppg, while the Gophers are on a recent and current 3-0 ATS run in those games.  Value lies with the home dog.  I'm grabbing the points with Minnesota.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Texas Longhorns on Friday night.  Texas and Texas Tech are programs truly headed in opposite directions.  It took a little time for Tom Herman to get things rolling in his first season in Austin, but we're starting to see why he was such a hot coaching prospect.  Texas enters just 6-5 SU, but they are two OT losses and a total of 11 points away from a 9-1 SU run.  Dual threat QB Sam Ehlinger will face a Tech defense that ranks 124th against the pass and 107th, overall.  Tech allows over 30 ppg on the season and the offense has disappeared when the level of competition has picked up.  Texas Tech scored a total of just 43 points in losses to Iowa State, Oklahoma, and TCU, over the last five weeks.  The Red Raiders struggle on the ground, which puts more pressure on the passing game and that's simply not getting it done.  We doubt they'll get any semblance of a ground game going against the Longhorns' excellent run defense, which means the Raider offense struggles.  As mentioned above, the programs are in different spots right now with Texas Tech losing five of their last six both SU & ATS with the losses coming by an average margin of more than 16 ppg.  Texas enters on a 7-2-1 ATS run, overall, and they have covered six of the last seven in this series.  I'm laying the points with Texas, our KO release on Friday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with San Diego State on Friday afternoon.  We went against New Mexico last week and cashed with UNLV, a late and fortunate cover. The Lobos did not play well, but came with a huge effort in their senior day game and saw victory stolen from their clutches in the final minute.  UNLV won the game despite not playing well and struggling with defensive play-calling. The Lobos were crushed as they walked off the field.  UNM has now dropped six straight games and lost the previous five by an average score of 37-10.  The passing game is atrocious.  Led by QB Lamar Jordan (although he hasn't been the lone offender), the Lobos have completed 29 of 68 passes (43%) the last six games, averaging 28 yards per game and 2.47 yards per attempt, with no TD passes and 7 INTs.  SDSU lost to Fresno a few weeks ago, which keeps them from a berth in the MWC title game, but they can get their 10th win of the season this week.  HC Rocky Long and staff will have no trouble prepping for the option, especially since UNM has no passing game to worry about as mentioned above.  The Lobos allowed UNLV 534 yards of offense, including 363 yards rushing on 7 yards per attempt.  The defense is done. SDSU and their 14th ranked ground game should run at will, while the Aztec defense, ranked 11th against the run and 13th overall, will slam the door.  SDSU is on a 35-15-1 ATS conference run, including 19-6-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.  And along with their 0-4 ATS slide, UNM has covered just 8 of their last 31 after allowing at least 450 yards.  They don't bounce back well. San Diego State minus the points on Friday, our Afternoon Annihilator!  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the big points with Ball State on Tuesday night.  Both teams are wrapping up disappointing seasons, but BSU will be attempting to stave off a winless conference season.  There will be motivation for the Cardinals, while Miami may have given it their all last week in a tough 27-24 home finale loss to Eastern Michigan (we covered with EMU).  They're certainly a team I don't trust with this big of a point-spread. Miami RB's Kenny Young and Alonzo Smith are both questionable.  One or both may play, but both are far from 100% healthy and the next best runner is QB Gus Ragland who averages just 1.8 yards per carry.  No one else on the team has more than 12 carries on the season.  Speaking of Ragland, he's connecting on just 56% of his passes and we don't believe he'll be able to extend a lead by the margin Miami would need to cover the number. Miami has covered just one of eight as a favorite this season and lost five of those games, outright, while Ball State covered two of three this season as a dog of 10 to 20 points.  Last year's meeting went right to the wire with Miami scoring a TD in the final six minutes to win, 21-20.  The underdog Cardinals covered the spread and we expect them to do so again tonight, which would run the underdog streak in this series to 6-1 ATS.  I'm grabbing the points with Ball State on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Wake Forest on Saturday night.  Both teams are bowl eligible and every additional win means a bigger and better bowl invitation.  But we doubt NC State can slow the juggernaut that is the Wake Forest offense.  The Demon Deacons have kicked it into another gear.  Wake averaged 48 ppg in their most recent three games against Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse.  Points scored weren't the only impressive stat.  Wake averaged 649 yards per game on 7.8 yards per play.  They ran for 258 yards per game on nearly 6 yards per carry, and the passing game has gone nuts the last three games, showing a 69% completion rate, an average of 391 yards passing per game on 9.8 yards per attempt with 10 TD passes and just 1 INT.  NC State has been involved in three tough games in a row, finally picking up a 17-14 win at Boston College after a pair of losses to Notre Dame and Clemson.  The pass defense can be had and as we noted above, Wake's passing game is on fire and QB Jim Wofford wouldn't mind exacting some revenge for last year's loss to the Pack.  The Demon Deacons enter on a 9-2-1 ATS run in ACC play.  They're on a 4-0-1 ATS run at home and have covered nine of the last 10 meetings in Winston-Salem.  I'm betting we'll see more of the same on Saturday.  I'm backing Wake Forest, our Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Idaho Vandals on Saturday afternoon.  Vandal fans weren't too happy when they found out last year that this season would be the program's last at the FBS level. Players haven't been too pleased either, expressing their frustration.  But Idaho, a team involved in a lot of close calls this season, still has a chance to reach a bowl-eligible 6th win if they win out.  Idaho is 3-6 SU, but have three winnable games to close the season.  First things first.  The Vandals had last week off and will be fresh, while Coastal Carolina will be playing for the 10th straight week, while having to make the long journey to Moscow, Idaho.  This is a worn out and banged-up football team with three QBs on the injury list (two are out), that have dropped nine straight games after a season-opening win over UMass.  They've allowed 37 to 52 points in six of their last eight games and an average of 44.5 ppg in their last four road games.  The Chanticleers are 109th against the pass and 104th in total yards allowed per game, while the offense ranks 106th. Idaho QB Matt Linehan may not play this week (wrist), in fact, we doubt he'll suit-up, but Idaho, unlike Coastal Carolina, has a capable backup in Mason Petrino, who had last week off to get ready for this one.  Idaho has been "money," currently on a 13-3 ATS run, and they have covered 20 of their last 27 conference games.  It's their home finale at the FBS level and we believe the Vandals will make the most of it. I'm laying the points with Idaho, our Afternoon Annihilator.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Penn State on Saturday.  We are 6-1 ATS playing against Nebraska with our opinions and bets on the season.  We haven't shied away from playing against the Huskers when installed as a decent-sized dog (see Ohio State) because this isn't the program we grew up with...not even close.  Mike Riley is out at the end of the regular season and now the QB situation may even be worse than it was. Tanner Lee has been horrible most of the season, but Lee suffered a concussion (questionable) in last week's loss to Minnesota.  Frosh Patrick O'Brien would start behind center if Lee can't go and making your first collegiate start at Happy Valley is not an ideal situation. We do want to point out we're on PSU whether it's Lee or O'Brien.  The Huskers can't run (114th) and can't stop the run (108th). Saquon Barkley, Trace McSorley and company have to be champing at the bit to get after this defense. Husker defenders have not caught on to new DC Bob Diaco's 3-4 base.  Penn State is 14-0 SU at home since the start of last season and they're on a 9-1-1 ATS run in their last 11 home games. They've outscored this season's six visitors by an average of 44-8!  No visiting team has scored more than 14 points against PSU this season.  This is the final home game for Penn State and we believe they'll jump out early and keep their foot on the gas against a team led by a lame duck coach.  I'm laying the points with Penn State, our Saturday Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Baylor on Saturday.  This promises to be a difficult task for Iowa State as they attempt to "get up" for a game in Waco after blowing a shot to control their own fate for a possible Big-12 title game appearance.  The Cyclones led Oklahoma State by two TDs at one point of the game and led 42-34 with 6 minutes to go in the fourth quarter before falling 49-42.  ISU had the ball inside the Oklahoma State 3-yard line with 30-seconds to go in the game and a chance to tie, before QB Zeb Noland threw an INT in the endzone, turning the ball over and essentially ending ISU's chances to play for a conference title. Cyclone HC Matt Campbell called it, "...a devastating loss."  Baylor HC Matt Ruhle has certainly followed his promise of doing things his way.  The Bears virtually sacrificed a season to set Ruhle's plan in motion.  The offense is starting to come around scoring a combined 98 points in three of their last four games, including 36 in a 2-point loss to West Virginia and 38 in a 29-point win over Kansas.  Baylor gained an average of 492 yards on 6.1 yards per play in those games.  The passing game flourished, connecting on 68% of their pass attempts for an average of 374 yards per game on 8.44 yards per attempt.  We should also note, the Bears, (Charlie Brewer to be specific), fired 8 TD passes in those three outings with just 1 INT.  They'll face an ISU defense ranked 93rd against the pass. Baylor has covered six of the last seven home meetings and we'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with Baylor, our Saturday Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UL-Monroe on Saturday.  We feature "sandwich spots" on our ESPN-Las Vegas radio show, but this one might be the "Dagwood" of them all.  Auburn is off the butt-kicking win over Georgia and has a date with Alabama in the Iron Bowl up next.  It won't be shocking if they do just enough to win by 24 points or so, while laying much more.  UL-Monroe is 4-5 SU on the season and are led by a capable QB in Caleb Evans who has 12 TD passes and just 3 INTs.  Evans is a 66% passer, averages about 9 yards per attempt, and he's a dual threat - just the kind of QB potentially flat defenses don't like to face.  UL-M runs for nearly 200 yards per game, ranks 27th in yards passing per game and 18th in total yards per game.  No, they aren't going to pull the outright upset of all upsets, but we'll take the three-dozen points or so.  The Warhawks are on a 7-1 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and we believe they're undervalued in this situation.  We're grabbing the points with UL-Monroe, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing UNLV plus the points on Friday night.  Despite the loss to BYU last time out, the Rebels still have a shot at postseason play, but must win their final two games.  UNLV catches a badly struggling New Mexico team tonight, no longer capable of reaching the magical six wins.  UNM has dropped five straight games, outscored by an average of 37-10.  The Lobos were favored in two of those games and installed as a single digit underdog twice, with just one expected mismatch during the run.  They're as one dimensional as it gets, with no semblance of a passing game.  In fact, New Mexico has completed just 45% of their passes the last three games, combined, averaging just 2.63 yards per attempt, with no TDs and 6 INTs.  The pass defense, meanwhile, has allowed 9 TDs with no INTs in the same three games.  UNLV enters on a 5-0 ATS run on the road (4-0 this season), and they've covered six of their last nine games, overall.  We believe the Rebels, led by RB Lexington Thomas (1,100+ yards rushing), will find little resistance on the ground with the occasional big-gainer through the air.  We'll back UNLV on Friday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Eastern Michigan on Wednesday night.  EMU isn't going bowling and they're going to finish with a sub-.500 record, currently 3-7 SU with two games to go.  However, the Eagles have lost three games in OT, lost three more games by 1, 4, and 5 points, and even last week's 42-30 loss to CMU was a 5-point game with one minute to go in the contest.  EMU can pass the heck out of the football, averaging 270 yards passing per game, while the defense ranks 15th against the pass.  Miami got Gus Ragland back at QB last week and they beat Akron 24-14. Ragland threw 3 TD passes, but also threw 2 INTs.  Ragland has thrown at least 1 INT in each of his last three games, has completed just 54.5% of his passes on the season and again, will face a strong pass defense tonight.  And while the Redhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, EMU is on a 16-5 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss.  We expect a SU win for the road team tonight, but our play is to take the points.  Eastern Michigan, plus the points on Wednesday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Colorado State on Saturday night.  We feel we're getting solid value with the home underdog in this one.  Boise State brings a five-game winning streak to Fort Collins, but only one of those truly impressed us, beating SDSU a few weeks ago.  Two of the wins came against dreadful BYU and Nevada.  Boise, we should note, has covered just three of their last 12 against teams with a winning record.  CSU has dropped two straight after starting the season 6-2 SU.  But they have been kind to the bankroll against teams with a winning record, going 10-2 ATS the last 12, and 17-6-1 ATS off a SU loss.  The offense is balanced, ranked 25th through the air and 36th on the ground.  In fact, this might be the most balanced attack Boise has faced in a while.  Meanwhile, the Broncos are 94th on the ground on offense, while the passing game is middle of the road.  We don't believe they'll be able to pull away by margin. In fact, we don't believe they'll win the game.  However, our play is to take the points with the highly undervalued Rams.  We're taking the points with Colorado State our DogPound Game of the Week.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the short points with UCLA on Saturday.  Josh Rosen has been upgraded to probable for the Bruins and that means we'll have the nation's 10th ranked passing offense squaring off against the nation's 110th pass defense. Arizona State allowed an average of 36.4 ppg through their first four games of the season before getting a defensive reprieve and holding Washington and Utah to a combined 17 points mid-season. Unfortunately for ASU, the defense returned to form and has since allowed 48 points and 30 points to USC and Colorado.  Another issue for the Sun Devils is the fact they don't have much of a ground game, so we don't believe they'll be able to attack UCLA where the Bruin defense is at its most vulnerable. The Bruins need two wins in their final three games to reach bowl eligibility and they're a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season, averaging 40 ppg.  We backed Arizona State last week and got a fortunate late cover over Colorado.  But this week, we'll go against the desert dwellers and lay the points with UCLA, our Saturday night Beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday night.  Butch Davis is all but gone following the end of the season and even in a win over out-manned Southern Miss last week, the Vols were unimpressive.  That might have been the team's last big effort for their embattled coach. Mizzou HC Barry Odom was about two steps from being shown the door after a 53-28 loss to Georgia dropped the Tigers to 1-5. Since then, Missouri has dropped the clutch instead of dropping football games, winning three straight by 47, 40, and 29 points. This is Missouri's home finale before finishing on the road at Vanderbilt and Arkansas, and they need two more wins to become bowl eligible.  The passing game is unstoppable right now and Tennessee's defense is prone to allowing a big ground game this week, also, ranked 123rd against the run.  The Vols' offense is unreliable and we don't believe they'll be able to "keep up" in this one.  It's certainly not the same team that clobbered the Tigers 63-37 a season ago.  The Vols are 8-24 ATS off a cover, while Mizzou has covered five straight games.  I'm laying the points with Missouri on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Mississippi State.  The more we looked into this game, the more reasons we found to back the Bulldogs.  Alabama continues to "take on water" due to the injury bug that has hit the defense.  The passing game is also suffering a bit, and MSU does two things we like a lot -- they run the ball extremely well and they stop the run.  The Bulldogs also have the type of QB, Nick Fitzgerald, (a dual-threat), which are the kind who have caused Alabama problems in the past.  Defensively, Miss State is not only strong against the run, but they rank 8th against the pass and 7th in total yards allowed per game.  And while Mississippi State is on a 21-5 ATS run in "Stark-Vegas" against teams with a winning road record, but Alabama is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record.  Dan Mullen will have his troops ready and we believe they're catching the Tide at the right time.  I'm taking the points with Mississippi State, our Top Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Purdue.  We backed Northwestern as a free play last week in Lincoln and came away with a fortunate OT win.  Overtime is the key word as it was Northwestern's third OT win in three weeks.  We don't expect the Wildcats to be at their sharpest or most energetic this week, especially since last week's win also accomplished their 6th win making them bowl eligible.  The 'Cats can't run the football and they're horrible against the pass.  Purdue still needs two wins to receive a postseason invite.  They aren't bad through the air and allow just 369 total yards per game on defense.  The Boilermakers are physical up front on offense and we believe they'll wear down the weary Wildcats. Purdue is 11-1-1 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record.  The road team has covered five in a row in the series and Purdue has covered seven of the last nine meetings. I'm taking the points with Purdue, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with FAU on Saturday.  This marks the second time in a few weeks that we have backed the Owls.  The first time paid off with an easy win and cover over North Texas. FAU is a year ahead of schedule and they're having no trouble tearing through the conference, winning five in a row, while covering four.  The 7th ranked ground attack led by Devin Singletary, (who has rushed for over 1,200 yards), will face a La Tech defense that simply can't stop the run.  The Bulldogs have been involved in four straight nail-biters and are led by QB J'Mar Smith, who isn't the most accurate passer, completing less than 57% of his attempts.  That's scary news considering FAU's ball-hawking defense has 15 INTs in their last five games, picking off at least two passes in each of those contests. We note that college road favorites are on a 65-25 ATS run if they beat the spread by at least 5 TDs (35 points) in their previous five games combined, provided they have a winning record and their opponent has a losing record.  La Tech has covered just one of their last six against teams with a winning record. I'm laying the points with FAU, our KO on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Tuesday night.  The Buffalo Bulls still have a shot at gaining the magical six wins on the season, but to do so they'll need to snap their four-game losing streak and win their final three games of the season.  The offense has averaged less than 16 ppg in the last three outings and and was out-gained in two of those.  The Bulls can't run the football and QB Tyree Jackson has just 3 TD passes with 2 INTs on the season.  In fact, in two seasons behind center Jackson has as many TD passes (9) as INTs thrown.  Buffalo is also 115th against the run on defense.  We're not saying BG's defense is anything special, but they have won their last two road games, winning 37-29 as a 17-point underdog at Miami-Oh, and winning 44-16 as a 1 1/2 point favorite at Kent State last time out.  We like the Falcon offense more than Buffalo's.  The underdog has covered 10 of the last 12 in this series and Bowling Green has covered four of the last five at Buffalo.  There are a few players listed as questionable for the Falcons, but we like them to keep this one close and hang the number, whether they play or not.  I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Arizona State on Saturday night.  The more I looked into this one the more I agreed with the line movement on the Sun Devils.  ASU caught USC at the wrong time last week. The Trojans were a ticked-off football team that was beginning to get healthy where it mattered.  Bad timing for ASU.  Colorado beat Cal, but caught the Golden Bears off of a two-week thrilling span, beating Washington State in front of the home folks, then fighting back before losing by a point in OT to Arizona.  But I like the Sun Devils here.  Steven Montez saw the nation's 116th ranked pass defense last week.  Arizona State's LB's have really picked-up their play in recent weeks and will load up to slow Phillip Lindsay, forcing Montez to make key plays with his arm.  Let's not forget Montez was benched just a couple weeks ago for poor play.  We also get ASU in a big revenge spot.  The Devils had dominated the series before an ugly loss to the Buffs in Boulder last season. This marks just the 4th road game of the season for CU and they're just 1-2 thus far, getting shutout by Washington, losing to UCLA, scoring just 23 points against one of the worst defenses in the nation, and getting their lone win in a 36-33 squeaker over Oregon State.  The Buffs have covered just 3 of their last 12, while the Sun Devils are on a 10-4 ATS run at home and have covered four in a row in Tempe against Colorado.  We like Arizona State to win going away and we'll back them here.  Arizona State minus the points is our KO release.   Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Virginia Tech on Saturday.  Miami keeps sneaking by lesser teams than the one they're going to face this week.  The Hurricanes don't have RB Mark Walton and have been crushed on the ground the last two weeks.  Miami was out-rushed 176-59 by North Carolina and 264-136 by Syracuse. Miami averaged just 3.04 yards per carry in those two games, putting pressure on QB Malik Rosier.  The Hurricane signal caller has managed to stay away from the INT the last two weeks, but has completed just 52% of his passes.  He and his offense will face the nation's 14th ranked pass defense, 12th ranked run defense, and 9th ranked defense overall, allowing just 284.5 total yards per contest.  Va Tech DC Bud Foster will certainly have a wrinkle or two just for Rosier, and we're talking about a stop unit that allows just 11.5 ppg. Offensively, Va Tech owns a good passing game and ground attack, adding up to about 447 total yards per game.  They crushed Miami in the trenches in last season's 37-16 win and while the Hurricanes are making strides under Mark Richt, we don't believe Miami has made up enough ground quite yet.  Miami heads into this one 0-6 ATS off a win by six or less, while the Hokies are on a 12-3 ATS run as road chalk of three or less, outscoring the 15 opponents by an average margin of 13 ppg.  They're 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games, overall. I believe Miami will be exposed this week and I'm laying the points with Virginia Tech on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Southern Miss over Tennessee.  The Volunteers may have put forth their final true effort for lame duck HC Butch Jones last week, but still fell short against a Kentucky team they had dominated 31 of the last 32 years.  I certainly don't like them laying points off the loss.  Southern Miss got shocked last weekend by UAB. We suspected it and it came to fruition as the Eagles looked fat-and-sassy heading into the game on a 3 game winning streak, culminating with an OT win over La Tech.  Southern Miss looked spent from start to finish in the defeat.  But a winnable game against an SEC program like Tennessee will get the competitive juices flowing this week.  So Miss also needs one more win for a shot at postseason play and could very well get it here.  The Eagles face a Vols' defense allowing over 5 yards per carry and ranked 125th in yards rushing allowed per game, while So Miss makes opponents earn their yardage more often than not.  Southern Miss has covered 8 of their last 10 games, overall, and four straight on the road.  Tennessee is on a 6-20 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record.  I'm taking the points with Southern Miss, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Army on Saturday.  The Cadets have one of their best units in a while, have won four straight games, and have had an extra week to prep for Air Force.  We have the #1 (Army) and #2 (AFA) running games in college football, but Army has the advantage on defense.  Air Force ranks 120th against the run, allowing 231.9 yards per game on the ground and a whopping 32.6 ppg on the scoreboard. The Falcons are hot also, winning three straight games, but they allowed exactly 100 points in the three wins against UNLV, Nevada, and Colorado State.  The win over CSU was a bit misleading as the Rams hurt their own cause with turnovers.  Army has been stellar on the road off a home game in their previous contest, covering eight in a row.  And as reported, we also note the underdog is on a 14-1 ATS run in games involving Air Force. We're grabbing the points with Army, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Virginia on Saturday.  The Cavaliers stood 5-1 SU and looked like a postseason appearance was all but a lock.  Three weeks later and the Cavs have dropped back-to-back games, meaning there's work to be done. However, this might be their best chance to pick up a bowl qualifying win. Following Saturday's game against Ga Tech, the Cavaliers have road games at Louisville and Miami, and finish with a home game against Va Tech.  UVA has rebounded well off a loss by 17 or more under HC Bronco Mendenhall, covering six of eight.  They're 15-8 ATS as a dog in general the last 23 times.  And UVA is in true revenge.  The Cavaliers won two years ago, 27-21 and absolutely dominated Ga Tech last season, including gaining 25 first downs to 8 for the Jackets, but couldn't overcome a minus-3 turnover margin.  Ga Tech heads to town with offensive line injuries and a banged-up squad in general after a rough tilt with Clemson.  In fact, they have faced Clemson, Wake Forest, and Miami in their last three games with Va Tech up next.  Finally, while Ga Tech is undefeated ATS this season, this marks the first time they have been installed as road chalk this season and they're 0-3 ATS in this situation the last three times. I'm taking the points with Virginia, our Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Utah on Friday night.  No revenge here as the UCLA Bruins' disappointing season continues.  And Utah, in a rebuilding year gets "just what the doctor ordered." The Utes will want to run the ball with a power game, and draws the horrible UCLA run defense that ranks 130th in the country, allowing over 300 yards rushing per game.  Call it the perfect setup for the return of Utah's identity after dropping four straight games.  Bruin QB Josh Rosen is listed as questionable and we don't care if he plays or not.  While we respect his NFL talent, the fact is, it hasn't mattered playing on this team for this soon to be unemployed coaching staff.  UCLA's passing game will face a Utah defense with more INTs than TD passes allowed this season.  UCLA is on a 1-6 ATS slide in Pac-12 play, and while it's not a huge sample size, the Bruins have dropped four in a row ATS as a road dog of seven or less.  Let's also not forget they've covered just 11 of their last 32 games, overall, a true bankroll burner. We're laying the points with Utah, our Friday Night Smash. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Temple on Thursday night.  The Middies will look to exact revenge for their 34-10 loss in the last meeting -- and they may get it, but we feel this one is either a Temple outright win, or a very close loss. That's been Temple's M.O. of late, just 1-3 SU in their last four games, but 3-1 ATS.  The three losses came by a grand total of 13 points.  Navy expects to have QB Zach Abey (head) on the field, but it doesn't matter to us.  The nucleus of players who returned from last year's Temple team understand how to defend the option, while the offense should be able to pass the football on the 82nd ranked pass defense that's allowed 106 points in their last three games.  Temple enters on an 8-1 ATS run against defenses that allow at least 58% passing.  They're also on a 6-0 ATS run at home against teams with a winning record.  And finally, the Owls have covered eight of their last nine when lined as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points.  Temple is grasping first-year HC Geoff Collins game plan as the season progresses and we're backing them here. I'm taking the points with Temple on Thursday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Washington State, our KO in the Pac-12 on Saturday night.  Cougar HC Mike Leach gets a ton of credit for the passing game he brings to every coaching locale.  But this year's Washington State Cougars also know a thing or two about defense where they're ranked 7th in the nation in total yards allowed per game, including 3rd stingiest against the pass, and 23rd against the run.  And under his direction, the Cougars are a perfect 9-0 ATS against run-oriented teams, those that rush for at least 230 yards per game.  Arizona has been a pleasant surprise for some, but the fact is, this will mark their biggest step-up in level of competition this season.  The Wildcats don't bother passing the football, they run the ball as much as possible.  But their four FBS wins came against defenses ranked 101st, 122nd, 95th, and 111th, in total yards allowed per game.  Those teams also ranked 76th, 130th, 97th, and 119th against the run. The 'Cats played two teams with run defenses ranked in the top-60 (Utah and Houston) and lost both games.  Arizona will also face a team that does pass the football a lot, but also possesses the football the majority of the game and gains more than 20 first downs per game. I bring that up because under HC Rich Rodriguez, the Wildcats are 0-7 ATS against teams that average at least 21 FDs per game and hold the ball for at least 32 minutes per game.  Wazzu, as mentioned, fits the bill.  Luke Falk and his teammates didn't show up for their game at Cal a couple weeks ago off the win over USC, but bounced back with a 28-0 win over Colorado last week.  They held the Buffs to 174 total yards and just 80 yards rushing on 40 carries. That's the same CU offense that scored 42 against Arizona, while gaining 551 yards.  Besides the numbers already mentioned, WSU is 15-3 ATS (4-0 this season) against teams that complete more than 58% of their passes and they're 11-1 ATS (2-0 this season) against teams that average at least 5.9 yards per play.  Arizona is playing with revenge on their mind, but I'm betting they fall short.  I'm laying the points with Washington State on Saturday night. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kentucky on Saturday night.  Yes, we know about Tennessee's head-to-head dominance in this series.  But this might be the worst Vols' version of them all and Kentucky may not get a better chance of picking up the win.  If the Vols had any semblance of a passing game, (or a ground game for that matter), they wouldn't be led by a virtual lame duck coach.  Tennessee ranks 108th on the ground, 112th through the air, and 126th in total yards per game.  To top if off, RB John Kelly is one of a handful of players listed as out for this game (suspension).  Meanwhile, Kentucky owns their best defense in half-a-dozen years and should bounce back from last week's loss, while I expect the Wildcat offense to establish a run against the horrible Vols' run defense.  Tennessee has dropped six straight ATS off a loss by 20 or more...they don't bounce back well. Kentucky has covered 8 of their last 11 SEC games.  I'm laying the points with Kentucky, our KNOCKOUT release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday, our Road Warrior.  The Iowa Hawkeyes have dropped three of their last four games and while they're 4-3 SU, overall, they could very well be under .500, barely beating Iowa State, 44-41 in OT.  The offense is not a good one, ranked 103rd in yards rushing per game and total yards per game, while the passing game is also unreliable.  Iowa has been horrible in the red-zone, ranked 124th in this key category.  This is all too familiar under HC Kirk Ferentz.  Even their 45-16 win over hapless Illinois was misleading.  Iowa got out-gained by the Illini and led just 24-16 in the fourth quarter.  In fact, the Hawks have been out-gained in each of their last four games. Minnesota can run the football and we believe they'll find success against a Hawkeye defense that's been under the gun too often this season, having to make up for the weak offense.  The Gophers are extremely stingy on defense, equally good against the run and the pass. Minnesota dropped three straight games (two could have gone either way) before getting healthy against Illinois last time out and we believe it'll prove to be a stepping stone in the right direction.  The Gophers are on a 6-0-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and we'll back them here.  I'm taking the points with Minnesota on Saturday, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Northwestern on Saturday.  Spartan HC Mike Dantonio has turned things around after a tough 2016 campaign, including a 14-10 win over Michigan.  But the wins haven't exactly come against a murderer's row of offensive units.  MSU beat Iowa, ranked 104th in total yards per game and the Hawkeyes can't run the football. They've beaten Michigan and their 99th ranked offense...Michigan has no passing game. And Dantonio's troops beat Indiana and their 94th ranked offense.  We understand you can only beat the teams that are put in front of you, but all four wins were close games.  This week, they face Northwestern, a step-up in offensive competition when you consider the Wildcats actually have a passing offense ranked in the top-50 (43rd, to be exact).  Defensively, Northwestern has slammed the door on opposing running games.  That's scary news for a Michigan State team that can't rely on the pass. The Spartans will attempt to exact revenge for a 54-40 loss last season, but we are betting they'll come up short of their goal.  I'm grabbing the points with Northwestern on Saturday, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Penn State on Saturday.  The last time Ohio State faced a legitimate offense (and defense for that matter) the Buckeyes took it on the chin at home in a one-sided loss to Oklahoma.  QB J.T. Barrett struggled as he has been known to do in step-up games during his collegiate career.  His downfield completions were few and far between through the OU game.  Since then, we've heard nothing but great things about his development.  But look at the competition.  Since the loss to the Sooners, Ohio State has faced the defenses of Army, UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska.  He's going to see "a little more resistance" this week against Penn State.  We like the look of Nittany Lion QB Trace McSorley last week against Michigan.  He showed he can make quick decisions and key plays without being completely reliant on RB Saquon Barkley.  Penn State not only opened up on the Wolverines in the second half, but out-gained U-M, 506-269 for the game.  Some believe the Nittany Lions might have a letdown...I'm not one of them.  Penn State enters on an 11-1-1 ATS run in Big-10 play, while going 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games, overall. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have covered just one of their last five home games. I'm grabbing the points with Penn State on Saturday, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Oregon State on Thursday night.  Former Beavers' HC Gary Anderson stepped aside, resigning from his position a couple weeks ago and even said he wasn't focused on the job at hand.  We saw immediate dividends when Cory Hall was named interim coach. The offense was bottled up and hamstrung under Anderson, but Hall opened things up in his first game calling the shots and Oregon State gained over 560 yards of offense in a 36-33 loss to Colorado. OSU led the Buffs until the final 1:34 of the game.  This is not the same attack Stanford would have prepped for just a few weeks ago and that makes things a little more difficult. Meanwhile, whether RB Bryce Love (ankle) plays or not, Stanford will look to power their way to victory with the ground attack paving the way.  So, even if successful, we are betting the Cardinal will not be able to pull away by a margin greater than the spread. Stanford also has bigger fish to fry coming up, facing Washington State, Washington, Cal, and Notre Dame, in that order, to close the season.  The Cardinal are 1-6 ATS off a cover. Oregon State is on a 9-3 ATS conference run and they're 26-9 ATS after losing a Pac-12 game by no more than seven points.  Stanford has won the last seven meetings, but the last five have come by an average of just 13 ppg.  I'm grabbing the points with Oregon State on Thursday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Fresno State on Saturday night.  This line opened higher offshore, but in Nevada, the typical opening line was 8.  One shop opened it 10, but lowered it two full points, literally 16-seconds later because it was a bad number.  But even at the current number, the value still lies with the underdog.  SDSU has played several close games this season and got their doors blown off last week.  We saw this coming a few weeks ago when we went against SDSU and cashed a ticket with a top play release on Northern Illinois. The Aztecs won 34-28, but NIU covered. The alarming part of the equation was the fact the Aztecs got out-gained 429-263 and had to rely on three non-offensive TDs.  We cashed with Fresno, taking the big points against Alabama early this season.  The Bulldogs only two losses in six games came on the road in back-to-back weeks to Bama and Washington.  While we like the offensive attack HC Jeff Tedford has employed, we really like the fact the run defense is as stingy as it is.  FSU ranks 14th against the run and they have the ability to slow SDSU's bread-and-butter ground game like Boise did last week. Even if the Aztecs are up in the fourth quarter, you know Rocky Long will look for his team to grind out the clock rather than fire the ball through the air, meaning he'd gladly accept a 3 point win.  SDSU ran for just 83 yards on 39 carries in the 31-14 loss to Boise and adding to the negative, the Aztecs just lost their chance and dream at a New Years Day bowl.  SDSU is just 2-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are on a 12-3-1 ATS run, overall.  They're 6-0 ATS against teams with a winning record and have covered five of the last six meetings.  I'm grabbing the points with Fresno State, our MWC Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Arizona on Saturday night.  We had the Wildcats a few weeks ago when they upended Colorado as an underdog.  Arizona has found one heck of a running game under HC Rich Rodriguez, ranked 4th in the nation on the ground.  They'll face a Cal defense that's middle of the pack against the run and horrible on pass defense.  The Golden Bears caught Washington State at the right time, the Cougars were about as flat as I've seen a team this season. But I don't like the fact Cal is so bad at running the football.  They average under 100 yards rushing per contest and will run into trouble in this one. Arizona pressured a better passing game, led by UCLA QB Josh Rosen into mistakes, forcing three interceptions in last week's win.  Cal is "built" a lot like UCLA in that they're one-dimensional...all pass.  I expect similar results.  We note that in games with a +3/-3 line range, teams that run for at least 5.25 yards per carry are on a 36-13 ATS run provided they gained at least 6.5 yards per carry in their previous game.  I have been a big fan of teams that run the football well for decades and nothing has changed.  I'm laying the points with Arizona, our KO release on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday afternoon.  It took a couple games for the FAU offense to catch on to OC Kendal Briles game plan. But now that they have, the Owls have been virtually unstoppable.  After step-up games against Navy and Wisconsin, the Owls have scored 45, 31, 38, and 58 points in their last four games, winning three of them.  The offense churned out an average of 505 yards on 6.2 yards per play in the four games, including 351.5 yards rushing per game on 6.57 yards per carry.  We also note that QB Jason Driskel connected on 63% of his passes. North Texas has won three in a row, including last week's last minute game winning drive against UTSA, culminating in a 22-yard TD pass with 10-seconds left in the game.  But after that emotional high, I expect North Texas to get beat in the trenches in this one, especially facing FAU's strong ground attack.  It certainly doesn't hurt our cause that while North Texas was in a battle to the final gun, FAU had the week off to prep for the Mean Green. North Texas has covered just 7 of their last 22 road games, while the Owls have covered four in a row at home against teams with a winning road record.  UNT is 4-14 ATS the last 18 times on the road following a SU win as an underdog. And finally, as chalk, Lane Kiffin is off to a 3-0 ATS start at FAU.  I'm laying the points with Florida Atlantic, our C-USA Chalk GOY.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Purdue on Saturday.  Rutgers picked up their second win of the season this past weekend and now have two wins against bottom-feeders.  Take wins over hapless Illinois and outmanned Morgan State out of the mix and the Illini are not only winless in four games, but the offense scored a grand total of 44 points, while averaging just 259.5 total yards per game on 3.9 yards per play.  Rutgers can't run the football and the passing game averaged 148.5 yards per game in the four losses on just 4.64 yards per attempt, with 2 TD passes and 8 INTs. Boilermaker HC Jeff Brohm has done a terrific job turning around the team's level of competitiveness in his first season.  Their only losses came by single digits against Louisville and Wisconsin and a 28-10 loss to Michigan that was a 14-10 game well into the fourth quarter.  Purdue has a great shot to win their next three games and take a 6-3 record into the conference stretch run.  They enter on a 6-1 ATS run, overall, and a 13-3-2 ATS run on the road.  Meanwhile, Rutgers has covered just 5 of their last 17 Big-10 games. I'm laying the points with Purdue on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Nevada on Friday night.  The Wolf Pack have started to find their rhythm and identity under HC Jay Norvell.  Nevada beat Hawaii outright as a 3 1/2 point dog last time in Reno, and last week, took Colorado State to the brink, before falling 44-42, easily covering the 25 point spread.  The Pack have gained 566 and 564 yards in their last two games on 7.79 yards per play.  Nevada ran all over Hawaii, but when CSU took away their running game last week, the Pack went up top in a major way.  In fact, Ty Gangi and company have completed 51 of 76 passes (67%) the last two games, for 796 yards, with 9 TD passes and just 1 INT.  That's an average of 10.47 yards per pass.  Air Force is catching a different Nevada version than the one we saw earlier this season.  The Falcons fought back from a 27-0 deficit last week to beat UNLV 34-30.  But AF has not faced a decent pass offense this season, taking on mostly run-oriented offenses. Air Force heads into this one on a 1-9 ATS slide in conference play and they're on a 0-6 ATS slide on the road against teams with a losing home record, typically overvalued in this situation. Meanwhile, Nevada is 4-1 ATS in their last five MWC games and while this is Norvell's first season, the Wolf Pack have been a second half of the season team, covering 8 of their last 9 in this role.  With the way the team is coming together after a sluggish start, we see more of the same.  I'm grabbing the points with Nevada, our Friday night Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing the New Mexico Lobos on Saturday night.  We're getting value here with the road team.  Fresno State owns three wins on the season, but while Jeff Tedford's team may be improving from the last couple Bulldog versions, the fact is the wins came against three dreadful softies.  UNM is 3-2, also, and 2 points away from a 4-1 mark.  Their most impressive win came against Air Force, a 56-38 victory.  The Lobos outscored the Falcons 42-17 after halftime and rolled up 509 yards, including 363 yards rushing on 9 yards per carry.  New Mexico has had an extra week to prep for Fresno.  While the ground attack is going to be tough on the Bulldogs' defense, the Lobos' underrated defense will be well versed in slowing down FSU.  New Mexico's top-35 in both run defense and in total yards allowed per game.  We note that road teams averaging at least 5.25 yards per carry are on a 24-5 ATS run if the line is in the +3/-3 range and they're off a game where they ran for at least 6.25 yards per pop.  UNM fits the bill.  I'm backing New Mexico, our Shocker on Saturday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Michigan State on Saturday.  Minnesota's P.J. Fleck got off to a great start with the Gophers winning their first three games.  But as soon as the level of competition picked up, their deficiencies were magnified.  Minnesota has lost back-to-back games to Maryland and Purdue, giving up 31 points in each game, while getting out-gained by 218 yards.  The fact is, Minnesota QB Conor Rhoda struggles in the passing game, connecting on just 24 of 51 passes the last two games with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. The defense has been pushed around allowing 5.6 yards per carry to the Terps and 4.6 yards per carry to the Boilermakers.  Michigan State's off the big win over Michigan and we don't expect a letdown.  HC Mike Dantonio has been here before.  His team is decent on the ground, while the defense ranks 4th, 12th, and 12th, in total yards allowed, yards passing allowed, and yards rushing allowed.  The Spartans hold their opponents to 16.4 ppg.  One final note: we expect the Spartans to be able to pass the football when needed.  Mich State will face a Gophers' defense that has seen their last two opponents connect on 67% of their passes (43 of 64) for 461 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs. MSU enters on an 18-6-2 ATS run on the road against teams with a winning home record and the road team is on a 4-0 ATS series run.  I'm laying the points with Michigan State, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Ohio State on Saturday.  Nebraska played their tails off in an emotional atmosphere in Lincoln last weekend, but eventually their lack of direction, lack of identity, and lack of coaching adjustments were too much to overcome in a 38-17 loss to Wisconsin.  The wheels seem "this close" to coming off. They won't be able to run the football against the Buckeyes, which means 3rd and long for QB Tanner Lee and that means INTs.  Defensively, the Huskers still haven't caught on to DC Bob Diaco's 3-4 base.  That's not a shocker since it can take a full year to learn the nuances of the 3-4, along with the fact Nebraska doesn't own the personnel to operate it properly.  Ohio State has scored 54 points or more in each of their last three games and beat this Nebraska team, 62-3 a season ago. They're on a 44-20-1 ATS run on the road, while the Huskers have dropped four in a row ATS at home.  I'm laying the points with Ohio State, our Big-10 Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with UAB on Saturday.  The Blazers are getting little respect from the folks "behind the counter" and we'll look to take advantage here.  UAB is not only a perfect 3-0 SU at home, but they're 4-1 ATS.  The Blazers even knocked off Louisiana Tech 23-22 as a double digit underdog.  You can't throw the football on UAB and they're at their best running the football on offense.  We like both qualities.  Especially with the pass defense facing a MTSU offense that can do nothing but pass the football.  Take away the aerial game and I'm betting the Blue Raiders will struggle.  MTSU is also suffering from a few key injuries, including starting QB Brent Stockstill (doubtful) who continues to nurse an injured collarbone. John Urzua has seen a lot of action behind center and has thrown more INTs (6) than TD passes (5).  In fact, he's thrown just 13 TDs with 14 INTs in his career at MTSU.  UAB enters on a 4-0 ATS run at home and a 4-0 ATS run in conference action. They're on a 6-1 ATS run, overall.  I'm backing undervalued UAB plus the points on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with New Mexico State on Saturday.  The Aggies are playing their third straight road game, but the line more than makes up for it, not to mention the opponent.  Georgia Southern won't be able to "keep up" in our opinion.  The Eagles are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS with the push coming in a 34-point loss to Auburn.  The offense ranks 117th in total yards per game and 123rd in ppg, averaging just over 15 points per contest.  NMSU owns one of the nation's most prolific pass offenses and will score against a defense allowing nearly 40 ppg.  The Aggies are 4-1-1 ATS this season, while the Eagles enter on a 1-7-1 ATS slide at home.  We also note that CFB road favorites are on a 33-12-1 ATS run if their opponent failed to cover their previous game.  We're laying the points with New Mexico State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona on Saturday night.  We had the Buffaloes last weekend and cashed when they covered the number against UCLA.  But we were surprised Colorado couldn't do more on offense against the horrible UCLA defense that has failed to stop anyone. That's a scary situation for CU moving forward.  With their personnel losses and assistant coaching losses on defense before the season, we felt the Buffs wouldn't be in position to capture the Pac-12 South, but again, their last two games have left a lot to be desired on the offensive side of the football, also.  Arizona has had two weeks to prepare for CU and their two losses were "this close" to landing in the win column, with no shame in losing close games to Utah & Houston.  The Arizona defense is strong against the run and CU is not the same on the ground in 2017. If the Buffs can't run, they're in trouble with Steven Montez tossing six INTs to just 7 TDs this season.  In fact, Montez has a poor, 14 to 11, TD-INT ratio in his career.  Arizona is 8th in the nation on the ground and we believe they'll run the ball effectively, while slowing down the run on defense, putting pressure on the CU passing game.  The Buffs have covered just one of their last six home games and again, are overvalued.  Meanwhile, the road team has covered five in a row in this series.  I'm grabbing the points with Arizona, our Upset Special in the Pac-12.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Kansas State on Saturday.  The Texas offense has only looked strong, (from a balanced standpoint), in one game this season, a 56-0 win over San Jose State.  But we take nothing from that game as SJSU may be the worst FBS team in the nation.  We take more from Texas' lack of offensive output against Iowa State last Thursday night.  The Cyclones had a horrible game plan themselves, passing the ball deep downfield over and over.  Texas was never challenged, yet finished with just 312 total yards, which included a mediocre night from QB Shane Buechele, and a running game that average less than 3 yards per carry.  We also note Texas averaged just 1.9 yards per carry against a slightly banged-up USC defense.  Kansas State is terrific on defense and on the other side of the ball, run it well, averaging a 27th best 229 yards per game.  K-State held Vandy to 2 yards per carry in their other road game this season and we expect another stout effort here.  The Wildcats have covered eight of the last 10 meetings, while Texas is on a 1-7 ATS slide the week before the big rivalry game with Oklahoma.  I'm grabbing the points with Kansas State, my Road Warrior.

I'm laying the points with Houston on Saturday.  Nice revenge spot for the Cougars, but that's a small part of the equation.  Line value is obviously the main reason we make our plays on certain teams and the Cougars own the value in this one.  Houston has been a favorite of 21 or more in each of the last three meetings, including last year when they lost outright as a 23-point favorite.  While some faces have changed, including new HC Major Applewhite and no more Greg Ward at QB, the Cougars are still averaging over 280 yards passing per game.  But Houston has taken on the tougher slate, which includes a 19-16 win at Arizona and a tough 27-24 loss against an improved Texas Tech squad. SMU has had just one step-up game so far this season and the defense got clobbered, allowing 56 points in a 20-point loss to TCU.  SMU allowed 619 yards and 30 first downs.  They gave up over 5 yards per carry on the ground and a 24 of 30, 4 TDs & 0 INTs night through the air.  I'm not too crazy about SMU QB Ben Hicks who has completed just 54% of his passes after completing just 55% a season ago.  Hicks threw 15 INTs last season and while he's thrown just three this year, he's only faced one strong defense, throwing two against TCU.  His lack of accuracy and propensity to force throws means Houston could be in for a big pick or two in this one.  Our raw power numbers have Houston 11 points better than SMU in this contest, a big and rare gap for us.  We trust our power ratings and will back the Houston Cougars minus the points on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with West Virginia on Saturday.  TCU's value is gone thanks to the big win over Oklahoma State two weeks ago.  The Horned Frogs find themselves laying nearly two full TDs when our raw power ratings are four points lower even with a few Mountaineer defenders potentially banged-up for this contest.  But we like the deep WVU running game to keep this one tight throughout.  The ground attack, ranked 26th in the nation really opens things up for the nation's 7th ranked passing offense.  And let's not forget that TCU was out-gained in the win over Oklahoma State, allowing 499 yards. The Cowboys simply couldn't overcome a 4-turnover night.  Being overvalued is nothing new for TCU, which is why they're on a 1-10 ATS slide at home.  The Horned Frogs might gain a measure of revenge from last year's loss, but we are betting the Mountaineers will hang the number.  I'm taking the points with West Virginia, our Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Florida State on Saturday.  The Seminoles haven't been the same since losing to Alabama and losing star QB Deondre Francois in the process.  But this team is beyond battle-tested, having also played NC State and Wake Forest.  Big win last week against the Demon Deacons, finding a way to win on the road.  We feel the first win of the season will be a jumpstart for this team and expect another win here.  FSU has had to deal with injuries, but Miami has played a soft slate, facing Bethune Cookman, Toledo, and an overrated Duke squad. Miami actually finished with 5 fewer first downs than Duke, but took care of business when needed.  Their top RB, Mark Walton, is probable, but his ankle is not 100%.  FSU is stingy against the run...and the defensive backfield will be by far the best one Miami QB Malik Rosier has faced.  Defensively, the Hurricanes' secondary leaves a lot to be desired, ranked 92nd against the pass, which we believe will be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Seminoles offense.  The dog has covered 15 of the last 18 in this series and Florida State is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run when listed as the underdog.  I'm taking the points with Florida State, our DogPound release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Colorado on Saturday night.  The next time the UCLA Bruins slow an opponent down will be the first time.  The Bruins' defense has allowed 44, 48, and 58 points to Texas A&M, Memphis, and Stanford.  And even though Hawaii "only" scored 23 points against UCLA, the Warriors out-gained the Bruins 515-505.  Besides allowing over 43 ppg, UCLA ranks 130th against the run and 125th in total yards allowed per game.  Colorado lost to Washington last weekend, trailing 17-10 with about 4 minutes left in the third before the wheels came off as turnovers did them in.  But the Buffaloes' defense held Josh Browning to 11 of 21 passing for 160 yards with a TD and an INT.  It was Browning's worst game of the season.  I expect Josh Rosen to get his numbers, but without a ground game (104th in the nation) UCLA is slightly easier to defend.  This number is simply too high compared to our power ratings. CU has covered six of their last seven road games, while the Bruins are on a 1-7 ATS September slide.  UCLA is on a 1-6 ATS slide when laying 3 1/2 to 10 points, including 0-2 ATS this season.  I'm taking the points with Colorado, our DogPound on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Northern Illinois, our Shocker Game of the Month.  Scheduling lies completely in favor of the Huskies in this one.  NIU had last week off after beating Nebraska in Lincoln.  And if he has to go again, they've had one more week to get QB Daniel Santacaterina more reps with the first team -- not that he's had any issues so far, completing 38 of 56, 68% of his passes with 3 TDs and just 1 INT. The NIU signal caller also has help in the offensive backfield from RB Jordan Huff, who topped 100 yards rushing against Nebraska and is averaging 6.84 yards per carry in his 238 attempts at NIU.  The defense has been fantastic against the run thus far and will face a one-dimensional SDSU offense that's all about the run.  The NIU defense ranks 19th against the run allowing just 98 yards rushing per game and they're 26th in total yards allowed.  Now the second half of the scheduling advantage.  The Aztecs are off three straight physically and emotionally tough football games, beating Arizona State, Stanford, and Air Force, winning the last two games on the final score of the game.  SDSU got by Stanford, scoring the game winning TD with less than 10 seconds to go, and they beat AFA with a 53-yard TD run with just over 5 minutes to go.  We had SDSU last week, but we'll go against them here.  NIU wouldn't mind exacting a little revenge for last year's 42-28 loss.  This Huskies' version is much better than the one that started 1-6 SU last season, including the loss to the Aztecs.  NIU is a true road warrior, currently on a 24-7-2 ATS run on the road.  They're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record.  I'm grabbing the points with Northern Illinois, our Shocker of the Month. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Coastal Carolina on Saturday.  CC did not fare too well last weekend in a loss to FCS Western Illinois.  But WIU is an undefeated top-20 ranked FCS team and Coastal was no doubt looking ahead to this week, their first Sun Belt contest. We are not only getting an over-adjustment on the spread, but the UL-Monroe defense is coming off an OT win against their rival, UL-Lafayette, where the defense was on the field for 90 plays.  UL-M allowed 231 yards on 49 carries and head into this one ranked 124th against the run, allowing 278 yards rushing per game.  Guess what Coastal Carolina does best?  Yes, run the football.  Coastal ranks 21st in the nation, averaging nearly 240 yards rushing per game.  They'll take their shots lining up and pounding the football at an already weary Warhawks' defense.  UL-M has covered just 7 of their last 26 home games.  This marks the first time since October 15, 2016, that UL-M has been installed as a favorite, losing outright, 40-34 as 10-point home chalk to Texas State.  In fact, the Warhawks have been home chalk just three times since October 25, 2014 and they lost all three outright.  I'm taking the points with Coastal Carolina, our Road Warrior on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Bowling Green on Saturday.  The Falcons are off to a 0-4 start, but this line has been over-adjusted, more than accounting for the slow start.  BG should be the favorite in this game and it's why we saw some underdog money midweek.  Akron is 1-3 SU and both teams have faced tough opposition.  But we feel BG will be getting "just what the doctor ordered," facing a Zips' team ranked 107th in total yards per game on offense, and 102nd in total yards allowed.  The Falcons numbers aren't pretty either, but we like the matchups in this head-to-head clash.  And while the Zips are 1-8 ATS as road chalk of 3 or less, the Falcons are on a 6-0 ATS run off two consecutive double digit road losses and they're on a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS run in this series.  I'm backing Bowling Green plus the points, our Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Minnesota on Saturday.  Cluster injuries to any position will make life tougher on the rest of a football team, but when the cluster injuries occur at the QB position the term takes on a whole new meaning.  We saw what losing their top two QBs meant to Maryland last week when the Terps were throttled by Central Florida.  Maryland expects to start Max Bortenschlager with the team's other three QBs sidelined by injury.  The young QB certainly struggled last week. I expect Maryland to attempt to get the ground game in gear, but they ran for only 42 yards on 37 carries with the passing game a non-factor.  The Terps defense allowed UCF 250 yards rushing on 6.4 yards per carry.  P.J. Fleck and his Golden Gophers must be champing at the bit.  Minnesota ranks #1 against the run and in ppg allowed and #5 in total yards allowed.  They're outstanding on the ground and are all about owning time of possession.  The Gophers own the ground game to milk the clock in the final quarter after building a lead.  Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare for the game, so adjusting to defending the new QB will not be an issue.  The Terps have covered just one of their last seven road games and one of their last six against teams with a winning record.  Meanwhile, P.J. Fleck-coached teams are fast starters, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 September games.  I'm laying the points with Minnesota, our Morning Massacre.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with USC on Friday night.  The Trojans are battle tested, while Washington State has had a pretty easy early season slate.  But the scary part for Cougar fans in this one is the fact their offensive line is allowing way too many sacks, and will face a Trojan defense that has been in the opposing backfield on a regular basis. USC has 11 sacks on the season, while Wazzu allowed 5 sacks to Boise alone, and 14 sacks on the season, overall. USC also owns a top shelf pass efficiency secondary and we do believe that combined with the pass rush, Luke Falk will be forced into a couple of mistakes.  Offensively, the best player on the field is USC QB Sam Darnold and the USC passing game is averaging over 306 yards per game without excluding the running game, which keeps defenses honest.  The Trojans enter on a 6-1 ATS run within the conference, while Washington State has dropped 5 in a row ATS against teams with a winning record. We're laying the points with USC, our Friday beatdown.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arizona State on Saturday night.  This one is all about line value with our Power Ratings a solid 5 points off the number.  Oregon is riding a hot streak, but all of a sudden the 42-35 win against struggling Nebraska doesn't look so hot, while winning at Wyoming means not nearly as much with the Cowboys obviously overvalued before the season kicked off. ASU is just 1-2 SU, but the three teams they've played have a combined record of 6-2 SU / 7-1 ATS.  And while losing to San Diego State felt bad for Sun Devil backers two weeks ago, that loss doesn't look too bad after watching the Aztecs knock off Stanford last week.  Arizona State has the firepower as far as the aerial game is concerned and we believe they will give Oregon's pass defense problems.  The Ducks have covered just 2 of their last 10 Pac-12 games, while Arizona State is on an 8-3 ATS run at home.  We'll trust our numbers and grab the points with Arizona State, our DogPound Crusher. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with San Diego State on Saturday.  The knee-jerk reaction and easy thing to do would be to back Air Force, believing the Aztecs are in for a letdown off the win over Stanford. We don't subscribe to a letdown under HC Rocky Long and we also believe part of the perception has been baked into this line.  The Falcons hung around at the Big House last week before losing 29-13 to Michigan.  The Air Force offense did next to nothing, especially in the passing game completing just 1 of 9 passes.  AFA is one dimensional, a likely problem against a SDSU defense holding opponents to 91 yards rushing per game.  SDSU held Stanford to 238 total yards just one week after holding Arizona State to 1.3 yards per carry on 31 attempts.  Rocky Long and his defensive staff know the AFA attack as well as anyone and we're betting there will be no letdown. We also expect SDSU's 21st ranked ground game will find holes against AFA's defense.  The Aztecs are on a 15-5-1 ATS conference run, while Air Force has covered just one of their last seven conference games.  And finally, SDSU has covered six of the last seven meetings.  We're laying the points with San Diego State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Appalachian State on Saturday afternoon.  Wake Forest is off to a great start, but this is a very tough situation, taking on an upset minded Mountaineers' team right before facing Florida State.  App State was a bit of a public dog when they faced Georgia in their first game of the season, but couldn't overcome the difference in pedigree, not to mention, UGA owns a very good team in 2017.  The ASU defense didn't play badly, holding Georgia to 368 total yards and just 11 of 20 passing.  Wake owns a good ground game, but the passing game is mediocre and will have issues against the ASU defense.  Bottom line:  The public jumped ship when ASU failed them ATS in their opener against UGA and we're now getting solid value with the home underdog that I had favored in this one before the season began.  This is an over-adjustment in our eyes and we'll grab the points with Appalachian State, our Shocker.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm backing Miami-Ohio on Saturday afternoon.  Miami-Oh blew one last week. The Redhawks led Cincinnati 17-6 with less than five minutes to go in the game before falling apart, including giving up a pick-6 for the loss with about 90 seconds left in the contest.  Miami HC Chuck Martin called it one of the worst losses in his career.  But the team has reportedly responded like they have a chip on their shoulder for this week's game at Central Michigan (we waited to find out before posting).  The Chips are down a bit this season, escaping Rhode Island with a 30-27 OT win as a 5 TD favorite.  They beat pathetic Kansas, then got whipped 41-17 by Syracuse. Central Michigan is fairly one-dimensional on offense, not much of a running game.  The Chips are horrible on defense, ranked 117th in total yards allowed per game, equally bad against the run and pass, while playing against soft opposition.  I expect the CMU defense o be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Miami offense.  The Redhawks have covered 6 of their last 7 against teams that allow at least 4.75 yards per carry.  Meanwhile, CMU has covered just 3 of their last 13 games, overall.  Miami won last year's meeting 37-17, out-gaining the Chips by nearly 150 yards.  I expect more of the same on Saturday.  I'm backing Miami-Ohio, our Afternoon Annihilator.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Navy on Saturday.  The Cincinnati Bearcats are in a tough spot, off a fortunate win over Miami-Oh in an in-state clash. Cincy trailed Miami, 17-6 with less than 5 minutes to go in the fourth quarter before a Miami meltdown allowed the Bearcats to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  Cincinnati scored the game winning TD on a pick-6 with 1:40 to go in the game.  It was obviously a huge win for the Bearcats and now they must gear-up for an offense they don't see. With UC and Navy playing in different divisions, this marks the first time the teams have met since the AAC was formed. Tough to get ready for an option you have never seen.  Navy was off last week after beating Tulane, 23-21 two weeks ago (we won with Tulane plus points). But it marked the 5th time Tulane had faced an option in three years, including having seen Navy.  And we should note Cincy ranks 88th against the run.  Meanwhile, the Cincy offense ranks 111th through the air, 113th on the ground and 124th in total yards per game.  The Middies are on a 14-4 ATS run at home and they start well, currently on a 6-1 ATS September run the last 2+ years.  I'm laying the points with Navy on Saturday, our Main Event. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Idaho on Saturday afternoon.  We went against Idaho and cashed with UNLV a few weeks ago because the Rebels were undervalued after losing to Howard.  Idaho has now lost two straight and the Vandals are the undervalued team heading to Mobile to face South Alabama.  Idaho covered last week in a 37-28 loss to Western Michigan in a game the Sun Belt entry led 28-19 early in the fourth quarter.  The defense was outstanding as was the Idaho ground game (5 yards per carry) as they out-gained WMU.  I believe the solid play carries over to this conference tilt.  South Alabama allowed 91 points to their first two opponents before a meaningless 45-0 win over Alabama A&M last time out.  USA is averaging just 320 total yards per game and rank 101st on the ground.  The passing game has struggled too with QB Cole Garvin nursing an injured ankle (questionable).  Idaho isn't on par with USA's first two opponents, but they were good enough to nearly win on the road against Western Michigan and they are the better team in this matchup.  Idaho has covered seven straight conference games, while South Alabama is on a 4-17 ATS Sun Belt slide.  We'll back Idaho plus the points, our Hammer on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday night.  Revenge is an overused term in sports betting, but we do believe Louisville is going to gain a measure of it tonight. The Cardinals came within a few yards of possibly beating the Deshaun Watson-led Tigers in a 42-36 loss last season. Clemson's defense was very good last season, overall, and can be dominant again, (ask Auburn), but just like last year, Jackson is the great equalizer. New Clemson QB Kelly Bryant is a heady signal caller, but he's no Watson, at least not yet, and we don't think his offense will be able to overcome Louisville's.  The best thing we like about Louisville this season is Lamar Jackson's accuracy.  The Heisman winner is connecting on 65% of his passes, about 10 percentage points higher than last year.  We note that home teams with a returning starting QB are on a 54-27 ATS run if they're off a season where they averaged at least 200 yards rushing per game and their opponent has a new starting QB.  We also note that under HC Dabo Swiney, Clemson is just 1-8 ATS as road chalk of seven or less, outscored by an average of 26-20.  We're taking the points with Louisville, our Smackdown on Saturday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Kentucky on Saturday.  South Carolina is 2-0, but it's not due to great play on either side of the line of scrimmage.  The defense has given up an average of 330 yards passing per game and 463.5 total yards per game and the offense is barely topping 300 yards per contest, unable to run or pass the football with consistent success.  SC was outgained by 258 yards in their 35-28 win over NC State, rushing for 31 yards on 21 carries.  And they were outgained by 64 yards in last week's win over Missouri.  They do own a +4 turnover margin and have a couple of special teams TDs.  Kentucky's run defense should win the battle up front, turning SC into a one-dimensional offense and that's a major advantage for the Wildcats.  Kentucky is on a 6-1 ATS run in SEC action and have covered four straight meetings.  I'm taking the points with Kentucky, our Hammer.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Kansas State on Saturday.  Just about everybody who's anybody is back for K-State this season and QB Jesse Ertz is getting it done through the air, while also keeping defenses honest with his feet and ability to escape pressure.  Ertz is averaging nearly 14 yards per pass attempt, while connecting on 70.3% of his passes. Both teams are stepping up in class of opponent this week, but we believe the 'Cats will be more capable of handling it.  Vandy would like to grind it out a bit, but they ran for 2.2 yards per carry against MSTU in opening week action. They had to rely on arm of QB Kyle Shurmur, who has yet to fave any pressure.  That changes this week. We expect the K-State defense to hold the Vandy offense in check, while the Wildcat offense does the rest.  K-State averages 5.9 yards per carry, while Vandy averages just 3.5. We note that CFB teams averaging at least 4.8 yards per carry are on a 32-9 ATS run if they out-rushed their previous opponent by at least 125 yards and are facing a team that runs for 3 to 3.5 yards per carry.  Both teams fit the bill and K-State out-rushed Charlotte by nearly 200 yards last week.  The 'Cats also react well on the road off two straight home games, covering 15 of the last 20.  I'm laying the points with Kansas State, our Road Warrior.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Tulsa on Saturday.  There ought to be a few points in this one with these two offenses going at it, but one of the differences -- Tulsa has already faced Oklahoma State. Toledo will not be the stiffest test the Golden Hurricane have had so far this season.  But Tulsa will be a step-up in class for the Rockets.  Toledo allowed Nevada 4.5 yards per carry last time out and we feel the defense will have a rough time with the prolific Tulsa ground game that even gained 244 yards against the Cowboys in week-one.  Tulsa has averaged nearly 45 ppg over the last dozen games.  They're a tough "out," having covered 12 of their last 15 on the road and Tulsa is taking aim at their 7th straight cover against teams with a winning record.  Toledo remains overvalued at home where they have dropped four in a row ATS.  I'm taking the points with Tulsa, our Shocker. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Minnesota on Saturday.  This reminds me a little of MTSU's first game of the season when Vanderbilt really took it to them in a 28-6 Commodores win.  We said on our ESPN radio show that Vandy would power through the Blue Raiders and they did. Vandy out-gained MTSU 372-240 and held Brent Stockstill to 18 of 31 passing for 166 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT.  The Golden Gophers were a little sluggish in week-one, P.J. Fleck's first game as HC, ending in a win over Buffalo.  But Minnesota found their rhythm last weekend in a 48-14 pounding at Oregon State. When Fleck-coached teams find their rhythm they are dangerous, covering 14 of the last 18 after out-gaining their previous opponent by at least 125 yards.  Gopher QB Demry Croft is a bit banged-up, but it doesn't matter because Fleck had settled on Conor Rhoda, who has completed more than 65% of his passes this season, while averaging over 11 yards per attempt. Rhoda doesn't throw the ball often, but he will stretch the MTSU defense, allowing running lanes to open up for the Gopher ground game.  MTSU could also be hamstrung with QB Stockstill listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. MTSU is just 2-6-1 ATS off a SU win and we'll go against them here.  I'm laying the points with Minnesota, our KO release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Auburn, our CFB Hammer.  The Auburn Tigers gave the Deshaun Watson-led Clemson offense to 19 points in last season's hard-fought 19-13 Clemson win.  New Clemson QB Kelly Bryant led his team to an easy win last week over Kent State, but Auburn HC Gus Malzahn owns the defensive talent to once again stand-up to the Clemson attack that's shy of where it was last year under Watson.  New Auburn QB Jason Stidham (Baylor transfer) got a chance to shake off the rust last week in a 41-7 win over Georgia Southern.  Stidham played well for the most part and the offense rolled-up 535 yards on 6.8 yards per play.  All that offense in week-1 for both teams, but we expect the Auburn defense to slow the Clemson attack for the second straight season.  Auburn owns serious depth at the skill positions, so missing a RB is not tough to overcome. Auburn has been "money," entering on a 10-4-1 ATS run in their last 15 games. We'll back them here.  We're taking the points with Auburn, our Hammer release.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with TCU on Saturday.  The legit line in Nevada opened TCU -2.5.  Off-shore books opened TCU as much as a 2 1/2 point underdog. Bad line!  TCU lost to Arkansas in double-OT last season, despite out-gaining the Hogs 572-403.  TCU RB Kyle Hicks may not play, but the offense is superior to Arkansas' attack and the Razorbacks' defense had no answer for Frogs' QB Kenny Hill, who threw for 377 yards on 36 of 56 passing, while running for 93 yards in last year's meeting.  In fact, they had no answer for most teams on their schedule, allowing an FBS-worst 39 rushing TDs.  Arkansas also allowed almost 260 yards rushing per game in SEC play and the defense is even younger this season.  The fact TCU is better up front on defense than when these teams met last year will be the difference in the contest.  Arkansas QB Austin Allen played poorly down the stretch in 2016 with 7 TD passes and 9 INTs and we saw another pick last week with just one TD in a win over an out-manned Florida A&M team.  Arkansas is 0-6 ATS off a SU win and they have covered just one of their last five, overall.  We'll lay it with TCU, our Revenge GOM. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Indiana on Saturday afternoon.  We saw the Hoosiers give the heavily favored Buckeyes all they could handle for a good portion of the game.  The contest was definitely closer than the final score would indicate.  The job should get a bit easier for the defense this week, facing an offensive line that couldn't generate a running game in last year's debacle of a season. The Cavaliers have a couple of talented WR's, but pass-blocking is going to be a negative. Meanwhile, Indiana should have little trouble throwing downfield against a weak secondary.  The Cavaliers have dropped five straight games ATS, while when Indiana gets hot they have stayed so of late, currently on a 5-1 ATS run after throwing for more than 280 yards in their previous game. I'm laying the points with Indiana, our Best Bet KO.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Tulane over Navy on Saturday.  Willie Fritz employs his own version of triple-option offense at Tulane.  But the Green Wave spent more than one week prepping for what they'll attempt to defend on Saturday. In fact, Fritz had his defensive coaches spend time this summer coaching-up the defense specifically for this opponent. Tulane has also has the experience of facing Navy in each of the last two seasons, along with games against Georgia Tech and Air Force two seasons ago.  They're about as familiar with defending option football as any team in the nation.  Last year, I had Tulane's offense graded lower than this year's version, yet the Green Wave ran for 5.1 yards per carry against Navy and even led the game, 14-13 with less than three minutes to go, before Navy pulled out the 21-14 win.  Junior QB Jonathan Banks, a Kansas State transfer has the ability to run the football 20 times, while completing a decent rate of passes.  But again, the fact Tulane's defense will see Navy for the third straight season and an option attack for the 5th time in three seasons gives them a huge advantage.  I believe we're in for a close one for the second straight season, allowing Tulane to hang the number.  I'm taking the points with Tulane, our Road Warrior on Saturday.  Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Arkansas State on Saturday.  The Huskers are entering yet another new era, so to speak.  They have revamped their defense, hiring former UConn coach Bob Diaco, who has installed a 3-4 base defense.  But the offensive line could very well have issues both pass blocking and run blocking in this one.  Nebraska has some new parts up front and will look to protect a more pass-oriented QB in Tanner Lee.  We are not yet sold on the Tulane-transfer when it comes to running this offense.  Arkansas State expects to be tough in the front-six on defense and should hold the Huskers in-check.  We don't believe Nebraska will be ready to attack the young ASU secondary.  While the ASU offense left something to be desired last year, HC Blake Anderson has gotten more involved with this year's offensive attack. Arkansas State has grown used to going bowling in recent years and won't be intimidated by a program that stopped intimidating teams years ago.  Nebraska dropped four of their final six games last year and covered just three of their final nine games.  They also have a date with Oregon in Eugene next week and if Diaco's defense and even the Lee-led offense can get by ASU without revealing too much, they certainly will. ASU enters on a 7-2 ATS run, while Nebraska is just 4-8-2 ATS in their last 14 as home chalk.  They covered each of their first two home games last season against Fresno State & Wyoming, but the wide-margin final scores were quite misleading as was their very fortunate home win (push) over Oregon in week-3. This one is tougher than expected for the home team and we're grabbing the points with Arkansas State, our Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. Big-time revenge for the 'Cats for one of the uglier losses of 2016.  Kentucky jumped out to a 35-10 lead with less than a minute to go in the first half, before Southern Miss scored 34 straight points, winning 44-35 as a 3 1/2 point underdog. We remember it well, because we were on Southern Miss.  But the Golden Eagles are breaking in a new QB and have seven new starters on defense.  Nick Mullens is gone and the Eagles are left with a pair of underwhelming signal callers. So Miss is also replacing three starters on the offensive line, two of which are underclassmen.  Two of the seven starters lost on defense included their leading tackler and best pass rusher. Look for a confident and run-heavy Kentucky offense to push So Miss around on Saturday with arguably the best offensive line in the SEC East paving the road.  The ground game should lead to strong production from the aerial game behind dual-threat QB Stephen Jonson and a group of talented WR's who'll be tough covers for the So Miss secondary.  The 'Cats covered each of their last four road games, while the Golden Eagles are on a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home.  I'm laying the points with the Kentucky Wildcats, our Knockout release. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Troy over Boise State on Saturday afternoon.  The Trojans will line-up against a Bronco defense that will attempt to be more aggressive this season, but I just don't believe they have the parts to make great leaps and bounds.  INT's by the Bronco secondary were non-existent last season and while they'll likely load-up to slow the Trojan run early-on in this one, Troy has the weaponry in the passing game to make them pay, and eventually play an honest brand of defense.  Troy QB Brandon Silvers leads a fast-paced attack with a strong receiving corps that will have Boise on their heels.  Offensively, I don't believe BSU can pull away.  They're good on the offensive side of the football, but won't be able to shake the Trojans. BSU enters on a 0-9 ATS slide at home. Meanwhile, Troy enters on a 5-1 ATS September run and they have covered 9 of their last 12 on the road.  For what it's worth, Boise was having a tough time generating interest and ticket sales for their opener as recently as early this week.  Normal home value may not be there for this one, which is not a reason to fade Boise, but an interesting note.  I'm grabbing the points with Troy, our Shocker on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Colorado State on Friday night.  We certainly like teams playing a second game over one that's playing their first of the season when the programs are relatively close.  We saw CSU's offense kick into high gear in the second half of their 58-27 win over Oregon State. They were able to work out first game kinks. Colorado overachieved last season and while the offense has a lot of familiar faces, they do have a new starting QB with Sefo Liufao's departure.  Defense is where this team will be hurt the most.  CU has to replace one of the best DC's in college football with Jim Leavitt's departure, taking three assistants with him.  Making matters even worse, the Buffs have eight new starters to break in.  The defense will be tested all night long by the Rams' offensive attack.  CSU has been a money-maker, on a 35-17-1 ATS run in their last 53 games.  They're on a 14-3 ATS run after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  I expect Colorado State to snap their two-game head to head losing streak, covering at the very least.  I'm taking the points with Colorado State, my DogPound on Friday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Auburn, my Bowl Smash on Monday.  The Sooners closed with a blowout win over Oklahoma State, however, Stoops' troops fell short of where they'd hoped to be thanks to ugly losses to Houston & Ohio State.  OU enters on a nine-game winning streak, covering the final three.  Auburn finished 12 points from a 10-2 season and own the play in the trenches that gives the Sooners' defense fits.  Auburn has been a solid bowl entry under Malzahn, losing to Florida State & Wisconsin by identical 34-31 scores, while beating Memphis 31-10 as a 3-point fave last season.  Stoops' Sooners have won just five of their last 13 bowls, (4-9 ATS), including 3-5 SU / 2-6 ATS when favored.  We'll grab the points with Auburn, our Monday Bowl Smash.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Clemson on Saturday.  Ohio State struggled up front on offense against the better defenses on their schedule.  At times, J.T. Barrett was unfairly criticized when you consider he was under pressure.  Clemson has been outstanding at getting to the QB, posting a sack net of more than +20 on the season.  I do expect the battle in the trenches to be won by Clemson and prove to be the difference in the outcome.  We note the Tigers are 8-0 ATS away from home against teams that outscore the opposition by at least 17 ppg.  While this isn't a true road game, we get the picture.  Swiney's Tigers outscored the eight opponents by an average of 38-29. They're also 9-2 ATS against pass defenses that hold the opposition to no more than 5.75 yards per attempt, able to dissect and solve solid pass defenses.  And finally, they know how to prep for bowl action, on a 5-0 ATS bowl run.  I'm grabbing the points with Clemson, my Playoff Knockout.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Florida State, my Bowl Smash.  The Seminoles had bigger hopes before the season began as did Michigan.  But Jimbo Fisher's squad knew they were out of the mix long before the Wolverines had their hopes dashed.  Florida State was a very young football team when the season began, but are now a seasoned crew.  We do believe the ultra-quick FSU defense will be tough on the Michigan offense.  It's extremely tough to run on the Seminoles and the Michigan pass offense is on the wrong side of mediocre.  The Wolverines did not finish well on offense, gaining just 201, 284, and 310 yards in their final three games of the season, averaging just 3.86 yards per play.  I do believe the FSU defense will prove to be the difference in the game, at least hanging the number.  Florida State enters on an 8-2-1 ATS bowl run and they're on a 5-1 ATS run outside of conference play.  I'm grabbing the points with Florida State on Friday night.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with South Alabama, my Bowl GOY.  The young Jaguar program is pumped to be here, obviously, and no one expected this year's Jags to go bowling before the season began.  In fact, South Alabama won six games, which doubled their preseason projected win total. But they've dropped five straight games ATS and covered just three of 12 games this season. Thanks to perception and typical public betting in games that involve a team like South Alabama, we tend to get value on that team.  We believe this is one of those cases. Let's also not forget the Jaguars beat Mississippi State outright to start the season and four of their losses came by one score.  South Alabama came pretty close to a nine win season.  The Jaguar coaching staff has had a month to prep for the Air Force option offense, a definite advantage.  Air Force heads into this one on a 0-5 ATS slide when laying double digits.  We saw South Alabama take out another Mountain West entry, beating San Diego State 42-24 as an 18 1/2 point underdog.  The Jags scored the game's final 21 points.  I expect another strong performance in this one.  I'm grabbing the points with South Alabama, my Bowl GOY.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Kansas State on Wednesday, my Bowl Smash.  After a 6-0 start and dreams of a CFB playoff appearance, Texas A&M HC Kevin Sumlin, is back on the proverbial hot-seat. After a loss to Alabama, A&M dropped three of their last five games with the only two wins coming against NMSU & UTSA.  That's been modus operandi under Sumlin.  The Aggies are 8-11 SU & 3-16 ATS, following their first loss of the season over the last three years combined, including a 27-21 SU/ATS loss to Louisville in last year's Music City Bowl.  The Aggie defense has allowed 37 ppg, 556 yards per game, and 7.22 yards per play in their last three bowl games, combined.  Bill Snyder's 'Cats run and stop the run!  Meanwhile, A&M enters on a 0-8 ATS slide.  I'm grabbing the points with Kansas State, my Bowl Smash on Wednesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Wake Forest, my Shocker GOM on Tuesday.  The Temple Owls were “money” this season AND ARE on a 12-0 ATS run.  They won their final seven games of the season SU, including a 34-10 blowout win over favored Navy.  But thanks to all the impressive wins and covers, the Owls are now an overvalued bowl team in my opinion and their HC is taking his expertise to Baylor.  Wake Forest, meanwhile, sails under the radar here, losing their final three games, while finishing with just six wins all season.  And when you consider the schedules, Wake's defensive numbers are nearly as strong as Temple's.  I'm taking the points with Wake Forest, my Top Shocker Game of the Month.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Miami-Ohio. This one has much to do with motivation and the RedHawks are pumped to be in this game with a chance to take on an SEC school. Mississippi State has fallen short of expectations and can thank their lack of a passing game and their 121st ranked pass defense.  The strength of the Miami offense is the aerial game, while the defense ranks in the top-30 in total yards allowed per game.  We have seen the Bulldogs struggle against less talented opposition this season and we believe this one will stay within the number. Miami enters on an 8-2 ATS run off a spread loss, while the Bulldogs are on a 1-5 ATS slide off a cover.  I'm grabbing the points with Miami-Ohio, my Hammer on Monday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Ohio on Friday.  We like the dynamic QB Greg Windham brings to the Bobcats and the senior signal caller is expected to start on Friday.  Windham's energy leads the Bobcat offense and he enters with a 12-4, TD-INT mark, while also capable of pulling the ball down and beating Troy with his legs when needed. Defensively, the Bobcats are outstanding against the run and we expect Troy's balance to be tested in this one.  Bottom line:  The number is too high in our opinion, giving us value on the dog.  Ohio enters on a 9-2 ATS run in non-conference action and they're on a 6-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record.  I'm taking the points with Ohio, my Bowl Beatdown. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with Idaho on Thursday, my Hammer release. This may turn out to be Idaho's final bowl game. The program has one more season at the FBS level before returning to their roots, the FCS and the Big Sky Conference.  Coaches, players, and fans alike, are not happy with the decision to step "down" a level and the team is reportedly fired-up to show the administration it made a mistake.  As far as the matchups, Idaho's defensive line is bigger than CSU's offensive line.  I'm not the first to point that out and not the first to believe Idaho will cause the Rams' problems up front.  The Vandals' defense held three of their last four opponents to 14 points or fewer.  Idaho won six of their last seven games and finished 8-4 SU with all four losses coming against teams that have made it to the postseason.  Idaho enters on a 7-0 ATS run and they're on a 9-1 ATS run the last two seasons against teams that allow at least 200 yards rushing per game.  The Rams allow 213 yards rushing per contest.  I'm grabbing the points with Idaho, my CFB Hammer on Thursday. Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky, my Tuesday Bowl Knockout.  The Hilltoppers are well known for putting up big bowl numbers after scoring 94 points in their last two postseason appearances.  The passing game has flourished the last two years in bowl action and we expect more of the same.  WKU scored 44 or more points in each of their final nine games this season, averaging 52.1 ppg along the way.  They have passed for 947 yards on 10.9 yards per pass with 8 TDs and just 2 INTs in the last two bowl games, completing 72% of their attempts.  The offense ranks 5th in yards passing per game this season and 2nd in ppg, averaging 45.1.  I expect another big performance against a Memphis defense that's bad against both the pass and run.  The Tigers allowed 42 or more points in four of their last six games. Memphis is on a 1-6 ATS slide against teams with a winning record.  Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are 15-6 ATS the last 21 times when a total of 63 or higher has been posted. They thrive in an expected shootout, out-scoring the 21 opponents by an average of 49-25.  I'm laying the points with Western Kentucky, my Bowl KO on Tuesday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my first Smackdown of the bowl season.  Bowl favorites who have not had much point-spread success during the course of the regular season (33% ATS or worse) tend to be undervalued and we believe that's the case with Southern Miss (3-8-1 ATS). These teams are on a 21-6 SU & 20-7 ATS run.  We don't base plays solely on situations, but in this type of spot we feel the better team, the fave, is undervalued due in part to perception.  We also have a Golden Eagles' team that out-gained 11 of this year's 12 opponents.  They own the much better offense in this matchup.  Both teams average about 180 yards rushing per game, but UL-L's passing game is non-existent, dragging down their total yards gained per game to 365.9, or 104th in the nation.  Southern Miss ranks 23rd through the air, while pass defense is the weakness of the UL-L defense.  Another key bowl tool is motivation and in this case it's even.  Look for a spread-covering win for the New Orleans Bowl chalk.  I'm laying the points with Southern Miss, my Smackdown release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm laying the points with West Virginia on Saturday, my Main Event.  Baylor University went through a lot of tragedy due to the football program's behavior off the field, but the team itself was able to maintain focus while it was winning games.  HC Jim Grobe took the interim job as a favor to the administration, but assistants who remained had certainly given 100% of their loyalty to the dismissed Art Briles.  The Bears began the season 6-0, but once they took their first loss on October 29, the wheels came off.  The team completely lost focus and the coaching staff splintered.  No one is recruiting and assistants have been looking for other jobs.  Baylor has dropped five straight games SU & ATS, allowing 47.6 ppg during the skid.  The closest margin of defeat in their last four games was 19 points as a couple of Big-12 opponents exacted revenge. West Virginia is the final team to take a shot at revenge after losing 62-38 in Waco last season.  The Mountaineers are off a 49-19 win in Ames, and while they can't catch Oklahoma for top-spot in the conference, they can reach their 10th win of the season and possibly improve their bowl resume.  WVU's 23rd ranked running game and 25th ranked passing game (514.6 total yards per game) ought to have a field day with the "checked-out" Baylor defense.  All we need is focus from the Mountaineers and there's no reason to think they won't.  As mentioned, Baylor has dropped five in a row ATS.  They're also on a 0-6 ATS slide on the road. The season couldn't end fast enough for the Bears and I'm backing West Virginia, minus the points, my Main Event.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm grabbing the points with Temple on Saturday, my DogPound release.  The Owls have dropped their first game of the season ATS, but have covered each and every game since.  Defense is their calling card, one of the best units in all of college football defending the run, the pass, and in total yards allowed per game.  And if you can slow down the Navy ground game, their weak passing game is not going to beat you in all likelihood.  The Owls own the defensive athletes to handle the Middies.  Navy's defense gives up a lot of yardage, especially through the air where they rank 107th in yards passing per contest.  I expect Owls' QB Phillip Walker to take full advantage.  Navy is giving up 440 yards per contest and we note that Temple is on a 9-0 ATS run against teams that allow at least 425 yards per game.  The Owls have averaged 41 ppg in those nine games.  We'll grab the points with Temple, my DogPound release.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

I'm taking the points with New Mexico, my DogPound release.  We have been involved in a few Wyoming games this season, including a big win for us when they took down Utah State following a big win over Boise State.  This time we'll play against the Cowboys.  Wyoming is off four straight emotionally taxing games, culminating in last week's outright underdog, 34-33 win over San Diego State.  The defense leaves a lot to be desired and Bob Davie teams are 19-8 ATS against teams that allow at least 31 ppg.  They're also 9-1 ATS against teams that are playing .600 to .750 football. Look for UNM to run the football, doing what they do best against a WYO defense that has allowed 102 points and 579 yards rushing on 95 carries (6.1 yards per carry) in their last two games, combined.  I'm taking the points with New Mexico, my DogPound on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.