2*Kansas City Chiefs +2

The Kansas City Chiefs have played the most demanding strength of schedule this season, while the 49ers ranked 12th. Kansas City is ranked fifth in third-down defense, eighth in red zone defense, and sixth in special teams DVOA. Conversely, San Francisco is ranked 27th in third-down defense, 14th in red zone defense, and 25th in special teams. Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career and should feast against the 49ers zone defense. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo are difficult to conquer with extra preparation time. Kansas City is 4-0 at Allegiant Stadium and should feel right at home. The Chiefs will win back-to-back Super Bowls for the first time since New England accomplished the feat in 2003-04.

Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions (-120)

Patrick Mahomes has zero turnover-worthy plays in his last four games. Throughout his career, he has only thrown seven interceptions in 17 postseason games and has not thrown any interceptions in his previous six games. The defense is performing exceptionally well, and Patrick understands he does not need to make risky throws.

Longest FG Over 47.5 yards (-125)

Both kickers possess strong legs, and Allegiant Stadium's altitude of 2,190 feet and indoor setting make it conducive to kicks over 50 yards. 

Travis Kelce Over 69.5 receiving yards (-130)

Travis has exceeded this number in all three playoff games, averaging 87.3 yards. Kelce has been performing exceptionally well, averaging over 90 receiving yards with extra preparation time. Kelce will have a lot of success against the 49ers zone defense. This number keeps climbing and would take it up to 79.5. According to my model, his predicted performance is 89.5 yards.

3*Kansas City Chiefs +3

In December, the Buffalo Bills had two weeks to prepare when they defeated the Chiefs 20-17 as 1-point road dogs. Also, the Chiefs were without their top two linebackers. This time, the Chiefs will have the rest advantage (two days), and the Bills are dealing with numerous injuries, especially on defense. I think it’s a tall task for backups to contain Patrick Mahomes and company this time of year. The Chiefs own the better DVOA defense (#7 vs. #12) and special teams (#6 vs. #15). Finally, Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, winning seven of those games outright. I like the road dog in this spot!

4*Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

The Miami Dolphins are different from the team we saw earlier in the season as they deal with multiple injuries, especially on defense. Speaking of defense, the Dolphins were on the field for 77 plays and will be playing on a short week. The Kansas City Chiefs are well-rested and will have a massive advantage of playing in freezing weather at home. The Chiefs are ranked 10th in third-down defense and 8th in red-zone defense, while Miami is ranked 20th on third-down defense and 28th in defending the red zone. The Chiefs rank 8th in opponent passer rating, while the Dolphins rank 24th. Kansas City ranks 6th in special teams DVOA, while Miami is ranked 22nd. I will swallow 3.5 points!

10*Tennessee Titans +5.5

The Tennessee Titans were eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Jaguars in week 18 last season. They have dropped eight straight division games from 2022, including three against Jacksonville. The Jags had lost four straight before defeating the Carolina Panthers 26-0 last week. We are getting two extra points of value. Houston recorded six sacks against the Titans last week, but Jacksonville is ranked 27th in sack rate. The Jags committed just one penalty last week, and I expect a negative regression. The Jaguars own a +0.66 net yards per play on the road, while Tennessee owns a +0.62 net yards at home. Mike Vrabel is 24-12-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more points. Revenge is sweet!

2*Minnesota Vikings ML (-109)

The Packers will be playing their first back-to-back road games in over two months, and this will be their third road game in 20 days. They are ranked 24th in yards per play on defense (5.5), while Minnesota is ranked ninth (5.0). Green Bay ranks 26th in yards allowed per rush (4.5), while Minnesota is coming off a game where they rushed for only 17 yards. Jaren Hall played the final 11 snaps of the Vikings' win over the Packers after Cousins was injured and started the following week against the Falcons, but left that game after just 11 snaps when he sustained a concussion. Minnesota is ranked fifth in DVOA defense, while GB is ranked 30th. Give me the home team in this spot!

3*Atlanta Falcons +105 (ML)

The Colts' previous six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 24-46. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth most points (343), while the Falcons have allowed 278. Atlanta owns a +0.83 net yards per play at home, while the Colts have a -0.15 net yards per play in road tilts. I like the QB switch to Taylor Heinicke in this spot. The Falcons are ranked 3rd in third-down defense and second (tied) in red zone defense. That's a great combo against a QB (Gardner Minshew) prone to turnovers (13). It's the third road game in four weeks for Indy. Atlanta's previous three losses are by a total of eight points. The Falcons are 5-1 in their final home game of late.

3*Buffalo Bills -2

The Dallas Cowboys will be playing their first road game since November 19th. They are coming off a colossal division revenge victory last Sunday, where they benefited from three Eagles turnovers and ten penalties for 95 yards. Speaking of those pesky yellow flags, Dallas is ranked 32nd in penalties per game (7.5). Dallas owns net yards per play of +0.22 on the road, while Buffalo has a +1.37 net yards per play at home. The Cowboys haven’t played any game this season when the kickoff temperature is below 50 degrees. We have a 7-6 team favored over a 10-3 team. The odds-makers want you to bet on Dallas. Not so fast. Buffalo is the more desperate team and can win in this spot.

4*Chicago Bears +3.5

The Chicago Bears have been performing exceptionally well recently and have climbed up my power rankings. They have won three out of their last four games, and their defense looks impressive since they traded for edge rusher Montez Sweat. Joe Flacco had one of his best passing games in a while, but his QBR is still low at 41.5, and his lack of mobility could prove problematic, especially since offensive tackle Dawand Jones is out for the season. The Bears are ranked seventh in third-down conversion percentage, while the Browns rank 30th or 27th with Flacco playing. Despite allowing 140 yards last week, the Bears rank second in rushing yards against. Grab the 3.5 points!

4*Chicago Bears +3.5

The Detroit Lions will be playing their second straight road game against a team with revenge coming off its BYE week. Detroit won the first meeting while outgaining the Bears by just four yards. The Lions held Jared Goff to a season-low 68.3 passer rating in perfect weather conditions. This game will be the opposite, with 50% snow showers and 15-25 MPH winds. Jared Goff has a QB rating of 93.9 outdoors and 88.0 on the natural grass compared to 101.5 indoors and 104.1 on turf. The Bears have been improving on both sides of the ball, while the Lions are slipping a bit thanks to multiple injuries at critical spots. Grab the 3.5 points!

4*San Francisco 49ers -1

The Philadelphia Eagles defense had a tough game on Sunday as they were on the field for 92 plays in their overtime victory. Facing a physical group like San Francisco, seeking revenge after losing to Philly in the NFC Championship, will be challenging. The 49ers have ten days of rest and preparation after playing on Thanksgiving, which gives them an advantage. They have better net yards per play, third-down defense, red-zone defense, opponent passer rating, and offensive and defensive DVOA. It makes sense that they are the favorites in this game. Meanwhile, the Eagles are scheduled to play the Dallas Cowboys next week, and this game might prove to be a classic schedule loss for them. This spot screams San Francisco!

5*Indianapolis Colts -2

The Buccaneers have played six straight games (Week Five Bye) without rest and are coming off a physical matchup against San Francisco. I love playing on teams off their BYE with an offensive-minded head coach (Shane Steichen). Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in yards per play (4.9) and 27th in yards per play against (5.7). Indianapolis ranks 16th in yards per play (5.4) and 15th in yards per play against (5.2). Also, Tampa Bay ranks 30th in third-down defense, while the Colts rank 14th. Tampa Bay will have to rely on the pass. Not good. The Colts rank 8th in opponent passer rating, while the Bucks rank 26th. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in penalties, while the Colts rank 16th. This line should be minus 3!

5*LA Rams +1

The Seattle Seahawks are tied for the NFC West's top spot. In their next four games, they will play against San Francisco twice, as well as Dallas and Philadelphia. Seattle has a negative point differential while playing the 29th most demanding schedule. On the other hand, the Rams are coming off their Bye week and are highly motivated after losing three consecutive games straight up and against the spread while playing the eighth-hardest schedule. The team will be the healthiest it's been since week one. The Rams rank 10th in third-down conversion percentage, while Seattle ranks 30th in third-down defense. Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll, having won four of the past six meetings. More of the same!

4*Arizona Cardinals +5

The Houston Texans have an impressive 5-0 record when taking points, but they have yet to cover a spread in any of their three games where they were favored. Last Sunday, Kyler Murray returned to the field and significantly impacted the Cardinals' performance. His ability to read defenses and extend drives with his legs is off the charts. The Texans' listed 18 players on Wednesday’s injury report including several key starters. The Texans have allowed the 31st most fantasy points against opposing tight ends which could lead to a big game for emerging tight end Trey McBride. Houston has a massive division game against Jacksonville on deck. Also, I like fading teams & players after record setting performances. 

4*Detroit Lions -130 (money line)

The LA Chargers take a significant step up in class after defeating the Bears and Jets in prime time over the past two weeks. Detroit owns a plus-0.59 net yards per play, whereas the Chargers are minus-0.30 this season. The Lions are ranked fourth in total DVOA and fifth in defensive DVOA, whereas the Chargers are ranked 12th in total DVOA and 23rd in defensive DVOA. Also, the Chargers are ranked 24th in opponent passer rating, while the Lions are ranked 11th this season. David Montgomery returns to the Lions’ backfield, which gives them a boost in the red zone. Huge rest and preparation advantage as the Chargers played on MNF while the Lions are off a BYE week.

4*Carolina Panthers +3 (-115)

Frank Reich's revenge game against the team that released him last season. Carolina's Bryce Young played very well, with a season-best 103.6 passer rating and an average of 7.6 yards per attempt in defeating Houston on a field goal as time expired. Young is expected to continue playing well against the Colts’ defense, which ranks 25th in passing yards allowed (247.3) and allows the most points per game in the NFL (28.6). The Carolina Panthers have an underrated defense, ranking eighth in third-down defense. With Thomas Brown now calling the plays, Carolina should continue improving in their second consecutive home game following another week of practice. This will be the Colts’ second game outdoors in over a month and ninth straight without a break.

4*Carolina Panthers +3

I've been waiting to bet on the Carolina Panthers without Frank Reich's play-calling. Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown has taken the reins, and the Houston Texans have no idea what the Panthers' offensive will look like. The Texans have a negative yard differential (outgained 430-297 in defeating New Orleans before their bye week), while the Panthers are a sneaky good team despite their 0-6 record. Carolina has a solid third-down defense, ranking fourth in the league, and an efficient red zone offense, ranking tenth. On the other hand, the Texans are struggling in third-down defense, ranking 27th, and opponent passer rating, ranking 20th. Moreover, betting on winless home underdogs after their bye week has been very profitable.

4*Green Bay Packers +1

The Minnesota Vikings have won and covered two in a row and will now travel to Green Bay, who has dropped three in a row straight-up and against the spread. The Vikings will play this division game on short rest after playing the 49ers on MNF. Seems like a very tough spot. The Packers defeated the Vikings 41-17 without CB Jaire Alexander in a cold weather game in Green Bay last season. He practiced on Wednesday and should be available for this cold weather (40 degrees) matchup. Minnesota is ranked 26th in red zone defense, 25th in third-down defense, and 23rd in red zone offense. Green Bay is ranked seventh in red zone defense, ninth in third-down defense, and eighth in red zone offense.

5*Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105)

The Lions coaching staff canceled practice on Wednesday, opting for a walkthrough to rest their injured roster after six weeks of physical football. The Lions have won and covered four straight, and this is the perfect spot to sell high. Baltimore’s defense was on the field for only 46 plays in London. The Ravens are ranked third in opponent passer rating and second in red-zone defense. The Lions struggled to contain both mobile quarterbacks they faced this season: Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes. The home team should be more accustomed to the 10-20 MPH winds in this matchup. Lastly, the Lions will host a Monday Night Football game next week for the first time since 2018.

3*New England Patriots +3

New England is a professional football team, and they know that being outscored 72-3 in their last two games is unacceptable. I believe the Patriots will have success running the ball against a defense ranked 23rd against the run. Las Vegas will have one less day to prepare for the game. This doesn't bode well, especially since head coach Josh McDaniels has a career record of 19-30, including 7-12 after a win. The Patriots had a franchise-low 3rd down conversion rate of 7.14% against the Saints and failed to enter the red zone. NE owns the better 3rd down defense and has played a much tougher schedule. Belichick is 23-14 straight-up after losing two or more consecutive games, including 6-0 over the last three seasons.

5*Indianapolis Colts +4.5

This is a rematch from week one, where the Jaguars won by 10, although the final score was misleading. Both teams are closely matched, with the Colts owning a net yards per play of -0.2 and Jacksonville holding -0.6 this season. The Colts have a solid offensive line, ranked fourth, while Jacksonville is ranked 27th in sack percentage. It's a tough spot for the home team after playing back-to-back games in London. The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, so they should be highly motivated to win this game. The weather will be mild (mid 70s) with winds 10-15 MPH. Take the points in this overlay! 

5*Cincinnati Bengals -3

Although Josh Dobbs has been better than expected, he is not a threat to the Bengals' defense, as he primarily relies on short passes and running plays. The Cardinals recently played against the 49ers, known for their physical play. This situation is not ideal. Lou Anarumo criticized the Bengals' effort after missing 12 tackles, a three-year high. The Bengals are ranked sixth (5.3) in penalties per game, while Arizona is tied for last (8.5) through week four. Cincinnati's defensive line DVOA is ranked 7th, while Arizona allows the fifth-highest pressure rate (36.5%) per PFF. Joe Burrow is 4-1 straight-up in dome games and 8-4 SU off a loss since 2021. He told the local beat writers his calf is feeling much better. The Bengals are a tremendous buy-low team in this matchup!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5

The Steelers are back home after a disappointing game and are expected to be highly motivated in this crucial rivalry. These teams have a history of playing close games, and despite being favored only twice, the Steelers have won 5 out of 6 games against the Ravens in the last three seasons. This presents an excellent opportunity for the Steelers to bounce back as underdogs. Pittsburgh will be all in with their BYE week coming up. This game will be another closely contested match, so taking the points is a wise choice.

5*Indianapolis Colts  PK

The Rams will be playing their third road game in four weeks, with short rest and a body clock of 10:00 AM PT. Anthony Richardson can use his running skills effectively against the Rams' linebackers, who are ranked last at PFF. The Colts are ranked fifth in sack rate, while the Rams are ranked 24th. The Colts rank significantly higher than the Rams in special teams and total defense (DVOA). With a PFF grade of 82.8, Center Ryan Kelly returns to boost the Colts' offensive line. Indianapolis has lost eight consecutive home games and should be motivated to win for their fans' enjoyment.

5*Denver Broncos +6.5

The Dolphins are in the middle of a division sandwich, having played New England last week and with Buffalo on deck. Denver is ranked No. 1 in points per drive and will be all out to avoid a 0-3 start. This line has trap written all over it as all the bets and money are coming in on Miami, yet the line hasn't moved. Jaylen Waddle is OUT for this game with a concussion. There is a 75% chance of thunderstorms, and the wet field will slow down this Miami team. I like the Broncos in this spot!

5*New England Patriots +3

The Dolphins are in a tough spot, having traveled out to the West Coast, back home, and now up North to face the Patriots. Despite their unlucky start in week 1, we can expect the Patriots' defense to be well-prepared under the leadership of Bill Belichick. In their last two games against New England, Miami only scored 20 and 21 points, respectively. Although the Dolphins won against the poorly-coached Chargers in their first game, this matchup will be different as they will be playing outdoors on field turf instead of indoor artificial turf. Fading teams in week two after scoring 30+ and allowing 30+ has been highly profitable. I like the Pats in this spot!

4*Houston Texans +10

The Texans relied heavily on their first-string players in the preseason, while the Ravens did not. This is significant because Baltimore is adjusting to a new offensive scheme. Houston's defense should be better than average at the beginning of the season. Last year, the Ravens went 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS before playing the Bengals, and they have playoff revenge against Cincinnati in week two. It is advisable to bet on teams that did not make the playoffs against teams that did in week one. The Ravens are 7-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the road dog and the generous 10 points!

4*Indianapolis Colts +5.5

According to PFF, the Colts' offensive line is placed at No. 10, whereas the Jaguars are at No. 26. Betting on underdogs with a better-performing offensive line has proven to be a lucrative strategy. Furthermore, the Colts are well-acquainted with the Jaguars' offensive system. Jacksonville has yet to learn what to expect from Anthony Richardson and his team. In week one, division underdogs have a high probability of covering. A solid strategy is to play on teams in their first game that missed the playoffs against teams that made it last season. I like the Colts and the points!

4*Kansas City Chiefs +2

The Chiefs played the 9th toughest schedule, while the Eagles played the 29th easiest schedule. Philadelphia steps up in class after beating the over-rated Giants, and the 49ers who had to use their fourth string QB, and Brock Purdy who couldn't throw the ball downfield. Jalen Hurts yards per attempt has been declining in his past four games (8.0, 6.0, 5.9, 4.0). The Chiefs' offensive line is ranked No. 5 in sack rate (4.8%), while the Eagles are ranked No. 19 (7.7%) this season. Look for Kansas City to play a lot of up-tempo which should negate the Eagles' pass rush. I can't pass up Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes with two weeks to prepare, knowing they are 18-6-1 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. Kansas City has played 32 straight games they either won outright or lost by four points or less. Take the Chiefs plus the points.

5*Buffalo Bills -4.5

The Bengals have major offensive line issues (down three starters) and will now face a brilliant defensive head coach in Sean McDermont. The Bengals went 9-8 in the stats, while Buffalo went 13-4 this season. The Bengals were out-gained in six of seven games against fellow playoff teams. Buffalo owns a +1.1 net yards per play, while Cincinnati is just +0.1 this season. Buffalo owns a +169 point differential, while the Bengals are +96 this season. Josh Allen's QBR is 71.2. Joe Burrow's QBR is 58.5, and that was behind a healthier offensive line. Buffalo owns the better special teams and red-zone stats. Light snow is expected and that favors the home team. Take the Bills! 

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

I think the Buccaneers match-up quite well against the Cowboys. Tampa Bay defeated a much healthier Dallas team in week one. The Cowboys have been out-gained in three of their past four games. The Cowboys are 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing on a grass field this season. Tampa Bay's offensive line is ranked No. 1 in QB sacks allowed. They should be able to run on Dallas from a spread formation as well. Take the three points before this line drops!

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

The Jaguars own a +0.2 net yards per play, while the Chargers are -0.6 this season. Tough travel spot for the road team after playing in Denver last Sunday and now travel to Florida with one less day to prepare. The Chargers went 1-5 SU against fellow playoff teams this season. Mike Williams is OUT and he's been huge on third down and in the red-zone. Joey Bosa will play, but is not 100% healthy. Doug Pederson has won multiple playoff games (including a Super Bowl) while Brandon Staley is making his postseason debut. Take the home dog!

3*Houston Texans +5

The Texans should be motivated to win their final home game of the season as they are 0-6-1 in Houston. It would be fitting for it to happen on the first day of the new year. They have a good chance to keep this one close. Houston is ranked No. 8 in opponent passer rating, No. 2 in special teams, and No. 20 in overall defense. Jacksonville is ranked No. 20 in opponent passer rating, No. 29 in third-down defense, and No. 27 in overall defense at Football Outsiders. Trevor Lawrence did not practice on Wednesday with a toe injury. He's going to play, but I would expect the Jags to be cautious. The Jaguars have their biggest game of the season for the division title next week. Houston is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the hungry host!

3*New England Patriots +3 (+100)

New England should be super focused knowing they must win out to have any chance at reaching the playoffs. The Patriots offense should be able to move the ball against a "nicked" up Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is coming off a phony win against Tampa Bay as they were out-gained 396-237 and benefited from four Tampa Bay turnovers. New England ranks No. 2 in pressure rate, while the Bengals are ranked No. 30 in pressure rate allowed. The Bengals are ranked No. 28 in PFF pass blocking grade. The Patriots own a +0.55 net yards per play, while Cincinnati is +0.31. The Bengals have a big game against Buffalo next week on MNF. Take the hungry host getting three points (even money)!

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +5

The Jaguars return home with a lot of confidence after beating the Titans last week. Doug Pederson was with the Eagles when his defense held Dak Prescott and company to just 172 passing yards. Dallas will be without right tackle Terrance Steele, who has allowed just one sack in 818 snaps this season. The Cowboys have struggled against mobile QB's, and they are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on a grass field this season. This slows down their defense who is also "nicked" up in the secondary. Trevor Lawrence has a higher QBR (56.6) than Dak Prescott (52.9). I like the home team plus the points!

3*New York Giants +2.5

This will be the Commanders' 13th straight game without a week of rest. The Giants have extra time to prepare and get healthy after playing on Thanksgiving. Washington defeated the Giants twice last season. I love backing first-year head coaches (as underdogs) in double revenge division games. The Giants are ranked No. 5 in red-zone defense and No. 10 in opponent passer rating. Daniel Jones QBR is 58.1, while Taylor Heinicke has a QBR of 46.9 this season. I like the home team plus the points in this spot!

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +4

The Jags own the better offensive line and defensive line at Football Outsiders. Jacksonville has seen Lamar Jackson (2020) and their run defense matches-up great against Baltimore. The Ravens will be without stud offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley. I like the Jags head coach with two weeks to prepare. I heard they had some really good meetings about what is working and vice versa. Take the points!

3*New England Patriots -3

The Patriots defeated the Jets on the road two weeks ago and this was the same exact spread. Zach Wilson threw for 355 yards and Bill Belichick has two weeks to prepare for a New England team ranked No. 5 in opponent passer rating. New England is 0-2 straight-up and 0-2 against-the-spread after their BYE week of late. Extra motivation for the home team. The Jets are 4-0 SU on the road this season. I'm not buying it. Road dogs off a BYE have not performed well this season. Take the Pats before this line starts to climb!

3*Cleveland Browns +4

The Dolphins have played nine straight games without any rest. Their defense could be tiring after chasing Justin Fields all over the field last week. The Browns own the better offensive line (No. 7 vs. No. 22) and special teams (No. 22 vs. No. 32). Cleveland owns a net yards per play of +0.22, while the Dolphins are +0.24 this season. Miami is ranked No. 26 in sack rate, while Cleveland ranks No. 14 this season. The Browns are ranked No. 16 in third-down defense, while Miami is ranked No. 27 this season. Cleveland gets stud cornerback Denzel Ward back. I like the Browns with two weeks to prepare in this spot!

The Lions defeated the Packers 15-9 last week, despite getting out-gained 389-254. Detroit finished with a +2 turnover differential and took advantage of eight Packers injured during the game. The Bears' defense was on the field for just 53 plays against the Dolphins and should be relatively fresh. The Lions will be playing their first game on a grass field this season and Jared Goff has struggled in cold weather (below 40) in his career. The Bears own a +0.14 net yards per play at home, while Detroit owns a -0.58 net yards per play on the road. Chicago is ranked No. 10 in opponent passer rating, while the Lions are ranked No. 29 this season. Take the Bears at this great price! 

3*Washington Commanders +4

The Vikings allow more yards per game (383) than they gain (345) so far this season. Washington brings in the better defense, allowing 334 yards per game. The Commanders are ranked No. 8 in red-zone defense, while the Vikings are ranked No. 32 thru week seven. Washington is ranked No. 4 in the fewest fantasy points allowed vs. tight ends. The Commanders are ranked No. 8 in special teams, while Minnesota is ranked No. 25 this season. The Vikings six wins have come against teams with a combined 15-24 record. Seems like a tough spot for the road team with the Buffalo Bills on deck. Take the home dog!

3*New Orleans Saints +2

New Orleans has three extra days to get healthy and prepare for head coach Dennis Allen's former team, where he coached from 2012-2014. Marshawn Lattimore is expected to return from his injury. The Saints have out-gained five of their seven opponents, while the Raiders are just 3-3 in the stats. Las Vegas is ranked No. 27 in third-down defense and No. 30 in red-zone defense. The Saints are ranked No. 4 in third-down defense and No. 13 in red-zone defense. I like the fact Las Vegas won't know which QB will start for the Saints until later this week, and Las Vegas is ranked No. 32 in opponent passer rating. Las Vegas will be playing this game at 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock), and they are just 9-21 against-the-spread vs. the NFC of late. Take the hungry host plus the points! 

3*Washington Commanders +5.5

The Commanders own the better defensive line (No. 12 vs. No. 32), special teams (No. 5 vs. No. 30) and overall defense (No. 11 vs. No. 24) at Football Outsiders. I like the QB switch for the home team. Green Bay is dealing with numerous injuries on their offensive line. This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. I like Washington in this spot!

4*New England Patriots +3

The Patriots own the better offensive line, defensive line, special teams, and overall defense at Football Outsiders. Bill Belichick is very familiar with Jacoby Brissett and his skill set. The Browns play the Ravens next week. I like the road dog plus the points! 

3*Baltimore Ravens -3

The Bengals went 2-0 vs. the Ravens last year scoring 41 points in both blowouts. Lamar Jackson was injured in the first game and then missed the rematch two months later. The Ravens could easily be 4-0, and this seems like a nice bounce back spot playing with revenge off a loss. Lamar Jackson's QBR is 72.4, while Joe Burrow's QBR is 49.4 through week four. The Ravens are 8-2 straight-up after committing 9 or more penalties in defeat. Well-coached team. Lets swallow the FG and take the Ravens! 

4*Cleveland Browns +3

The Browns return home off a loss at Atlanta, despite out-gaining the Falcons 403-333. Nick Chubb and company should have a field day against this Chargers' run defense. The Chargers' offensive line is ranked No. 30 at Football Outsiders, while the Browns are ranked No. 7 so far this season. Cleveland owns the much better special teams unit. Second straight road game for the Chargers after playing indoors last week. Strong angle. This week playing at 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) against a physical team seems like a tough spot. Take the Browns!

3*Pittsburgh Steelers +14.5

I like Kenny Pickett and consider him an upgrade. He brings unbridled enthusiasm and his mobility should help move the chains. The Bills played a high-energy (90 offensive snaps) game in Miami and then another high-energy emotional come-from-behind victory against Baltimore. The Steelers have never been this large of an underdog and you can be sure Mike Tomlin will use it as motivation. Pittsburgh's offensive line is ranked No. 13 at Football Outsiders, while Buffalo is ranked No. 32 thru week four. The Steelers are ranked No. 9 in opponent passer rating (77). The Buffalo Bills have their ultimate revenge game (Divisional playoff loss 42-36 in OT) against the Kansas City Chiefs next week. This line seems inflated. I like the road dog!

4*Baltimore Ravens +4

The Buffalo Bills offense was on the field for 90 plays in last week's loss at Miami. They will now play their second straight road game in less than ideal conditions. Rain is expected (78%) from the remnants of Hurricane Ian. Buffalo defeated the Ravens 17-3 in the 2021 divisional playoffs, despite getting out-gained 340-220. The Ravens last home game vs. Miami was a meltdown of epic proportions. They should be motivated. Baltimore is 7-2 ATS as an underdog in their last nine games. Buffalo is 5-7 straight-up and 4-8 against-the-spread when playing on a grass field of late. Take the home dog in what should be a tight game! 

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +7

The Chargers have seven key starters listed as questionable on their injury report. Their starting center Corey Linsley is elite. If he does play, he won't be 100% healthy. The Chargers could also be rusty from not having six players practice this week. It's going to be hot (around 90). Despite the roof, the open sides of the stadium still make it vulnerable to extreme heat. I think the Jaguars will handle the hot weather better than the Chargers. LA doesn't really have any home field edge as most of their fans are in San Diego. Jacksonville hasn't won on the road in their past 17 games. They should be motivated. I think they keep this one close!

3*Carolina Panthers +3

This will be the first game outdoors for the majority of the Saints' roster since last year. Carolina should have a lot of confidence, knowing they beat New Orleans 26-7 as 3-point home dogs in week two last season. The Panthers out-gained New Orleans 383-128 with Sam Darnold under center. New Orleans has allowed 10 sacks in two games and will be without their starting left tackle. Carolina is 4-0 against-the-spread in Week 3 over the past four years. New Orleans is 1-3 straight-up after playing Tampa Bay the last two seasons. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Saints play the Vikings in London next week. Take the home dog! 

3*Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

Minnesota is in the middle of a division sandwich. They are coming off an emotional win and play another division game next week. The Eagles should be able to dominate the Vikings' undersized interior offensive line. Minnesota and QB Kirk Cousins haven't played great in prime-time games. We also have a rookie head coach making his road debut. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points. Light play on the home chalk.

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

The majority of the Colts roster haven't played a game outdoors since losing to the Jaguars in week 18 last year. The public loves the Colts in this revenge spot. Not so fast. The Colts' offense was on the field for 90 plays in their 20-20 tie last week. In the last 30 games, teams off a tie are just 13-17 ATS in their next game. Light play on the home team!

5*New York Giants +6

The Titans' offensive line is in major flux. They decided to invest heavily on the defensive line (see below). The Giants' offensive line looks much improved and all their key starters played meaningful snaps in the preseason. The Titans really don't know what type of offense the new regime will implement. New York knows exactly the Titans game plan, which features Derrick Henry behind a shaky offensive line. Tennessee just lost their best edge rusher from a year ago with a season-ending injury. The Titans play the Buffalo Bills next week on Monday Night Football. Take the road dog!

4*Detroit Lions +4

The Lions' offensive line is ranked No. 3 at Pro Football Focus and they have very talented skill players at RB, WR, and TE. Jared Goff is very capable and once put up 50+ points on MNF. The Lions drafted well on the defense and should improve in year two under Dan Campbell. In week one, you want to play on teams that missed the playoffs against teams that made the playoffs from the previous year. Strong angle. The Lions should be focused knowing the Eagles crushed them 44-6 in Detroit last Halloween. Take the home dog!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

The Steelers played most of their starters in the preseason, while the Bengals decided to rest nearly every key player on the roster. The Bengals went 2-0 against Pittsburgh last season (out-scored Pittsburgh 65-20), despite getting out-gained 643-638. Mike Tomlin and company are 4-1-1 straight-up of late when playing on the road in week one. This line seems super inflated to me for a division game in week one. Division underdogs are 29-9-1 ATS in week one since 2014. Take the road dog!

5*Kansas City Chiefs -1.5

There is a lot of support for the Bills. I guess their looking at Buffalo's superb 4.6 opponent yards per play. Not so fast. They faced a plethora of sub-par quarterbacks. The Bills (16th) played the easier schedule than Kansas City (4th). I just can't get the fact out of my mind that Buffalo lost to the Jaguars. The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their past 11 games, holding opponents to 16.5 points per game. The Bills literally played a perfect game on offense last week. No punts, no fumbles lost, no interceptions, no field goals. Just a touchdown on seven straight drives until the kneel down. It will be loud, making it very difficult for Josh Allen to improvise. He does that quite often. Kansas City went 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS vs winning teams, while the Bills went 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS vs winning teams. Buffalo is also 2-3 SU on a grass field, while Kansas City went 11-4 SU. Patrick Mahomes ll is 7-2 SU in the playoffs, only losing to Tom Brady. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season in Kansas City. I love Andy Reid and the Chiefs in this rematch. Lay it!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +9

The Eagles have a Top four offensive line which helps lead Philadelphia to a 4.9 yards per rush average. They also own the better special teams unit which could be a factor in the rain/wind. A cold front is scheduled to sweep across Tampa, FL right about game time. The Forecast calls for Rain (0.50 inch) and very windy conditions (20-30 MPH, with gusts near 40 MPH) so the underdog gets the call in this one. Tampa Bay went 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the regular season. Down to wire!

10*Cincinnati Bengals -5.5

The Las Vegas Raiders escaped with a 35-32 OT win late Sunday night, despite getting outgained by 94 yards. The Raiders' defense was on the field for 88 plays and 38:41 of field time. Seven of the Raiders' 10 wins have occurred indoors. Las Vegas will be playing their first game in sub-freezing temps in quite some time. I think traveling East and playing Saturday at 4:30 PM E is not an ideal spot. The Raiders have a -3.8 point differential and these teams don't perform well on the road in the playoffs. On the flip side, the Bengals have a +5.0 point differential. The Raiders commit the second-most penalties per game, while the Bengals commit the second-fewest. No revenge for Las Vegas. Take the Bengals!

5*LA Rams -4

As a local, I have a pretty good read on this team. The Rams are sick & tired of hearing how the 49ers have dominated them in the past (5-0 L5). Jimmy G is not 100% healthy. Trey Lance is still a rookie making his second career road start. Whichever QB starts for SF, the Rams have the edge in my opinion. The Rams (6th) have played a much tougher schedule than SF (22nd). The Rams are ranked No. 6 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 27 this season. SF is 2-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on turf, while the Rams are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS on turf this season. The public is all over the underdog making the 49ers a square dog. Take the Rams (minus the points) to the bank!

5*Washington Football Team +3.5

The Eagles defeated Washington just 12 days ago by 10 points. The Football Team were missing numerous starters including their top two QB's. The Football team return home after getting embarrassed at Dallas. I would expect a much better effort. The Eagles will be without leading rusher Miles Sanders and QB J. Hurts is playing with an ankle injury. I think we're getting two points of value in this division game. I'm going against the public in this one. Take the points!

10*Baltimore Ravens +5.5

This will be the Rams' third game in 12 days after having to play on Tuesday, Dec. 21. This will also be the Rams' first back to back road trip without extra rest this season. This game was originally scheduled for 4:25 PM E. Now, it's an early game (10:00 AM body clock) for the Rams, who had to fly back to the West Coast after playing at Minnesota. No Lamar is fine by me. Tyler Huntley has a QBR of 58.9, while Lamar's QBR is 50.1. QBR is a percentage so anything over 50 is above average. By comparison, P. Mahomes QBR is 59.0, which shows just how well Huntley has played.

The Rams have been outgained in four of their past six games, while the Ravens have outgained opponents in four of their past five. The Ravens are ranked No. 3 in third-down defense, while the Rams are ranked No. 20 this season. Look at the Rams when they don't play on turf. They are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS when playing on a grass surface this season. The Rams are also 1-3 ATS vs. winning teams. The Ravens are 9-3 ATS as underdogs over the past three seasons, including 4-1 ATS this year. The Ravens get numerous key defensive players back after having to sit out due to Covid restrictions. Take the Ravens in their Super Bowl!

5*Minnesota Vikings +3

Both teams will be playing with short rest, but the Rams are in the tougher spot. They have won and covered three straight games. LA is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS after winning three straight since 2018. The Vikings have played 11 straight games decided by single digits. They are the only team not to drop any game by more than 8 points. Minnesota was lucky to win at Chicago and should play much better returning home. The Vikings are ranked No. 3 in QB sacks (44) and ranked No. 2 in QB sacks allowed (22) this season. Strong combo. Imagine you're a football team (LAR) having to prepare/play for a night game than travel five days later for a 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) game in week 16. The Vikings own the fifth-best special teams unit, while the Rams are ranked No. 17 this season. Kirk Cousins does his best work (58.4% ATS) in this time slot (1:00 PM E). Take the home underdog plus the points.

5*Atlanta Falcons +9

This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. The Falcons have been much better in the trenches since their BYE week, so the season long stats are skewed quite a bit. Atlanta defeated the 49ers back in 2019, as 10.5-point underdogs at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers are 1-11-1 in their past 13 games as a favorite. SF is 3-10 ATS vs. losing teams of late. This game qualifies as a highly profitable system play. Home favorites following an OT game. Theses teams are 37-58-4 ATS (38.9%) since 2008. This angle also applies to the Saints this week. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season past three years. The 49ers play at Tennessee on Thursday so not much reason to win by margin. Take the road dog!

5*Cincinnati Bengals +1.5

Tough spot for the 49ers with cluster injuries at RB and CB. Not to mention their first back-to-back road trip this season, and third road game in 22 days. The 49ers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on turf this season. The turf in Cincinnati (Shaw Sports Momentum Pro) is completely different than the turf in Seattle (Field turf). The Bengals' offensive line is ranked No. 10 at Football Outsiders, while SF is ranked No. 19 this season. Cincinnati will be getting both starting tackles back after missing last week's home loss. The Bengals are ranked No. 4 against the run, while SF is ranked No. 18 this season. Cincinnati commits the fewest penalties per game (4.2) and are 6-1 ATS after a double digit loss at home. The Bengals are ranked No. 10 in special teams, while the 49ers are ranked No. 22 this season. Coldest game of the season for SF to date. They are 0-2 SU in cold weather games (40 or below at kickoff), but the kick-off temp should be closer to 44 degrees. I thought it was worth mentioning. Take the hungry host!

5*Detroit Lions +7

This will be the Vikings' fourth road game in five weeks. Two of those games were on the West coast. The Lions will have three extra days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving. The Lions are allowing 4.3 yards per rush, while Minnesota is allowing 4.8 this season. The Lions have the better offensive line, defensive line, and total defense at Football outsiders. Also, the Lions have the fourth-best special teams in all of football. If D. Swift doesn't play, Jamaal Williams is more than capable. The Vikings defense will be without E. Griffen, D. Hunter, and Patrick Peterson. Hunter & Griffen had three sacks and one forced fumble combined in the first matchup. Teams are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS after playing the San Francisco 49ers this season. The Vikings play (Steelers) Thursday night so no reason to win by margin. Take the winless home underdog with the better defense!

4*Denver Broncos +3

Love the Broncos as division home underdogs. Denver is ranked No. 4 in opponent passer rating which should matchup well against the pass-happy Chargers. LA scored 40+ points last week and now travel to high-altitude. The Broncos are 2-0 ATS after their BYE week of late. Denver is 23-6 SU and 21-6 ATS when playing with two weeks of rest. The Chargers are 2-7 SU in weeks 10 thru 13 of late. Take the Broncos in this one!

5*Indianapolis Colts +7.5

I just think the Colts physical style of play can keep this one close in bad weather. The Colts are well-coached and have familiarity with Buffalo. The Bills defeated Indy 27-24 as 7-point home favorites back in Jan. despite getting outgained 472-397. Nice revenge spot. Take the road dog!

5*Houston Texans +10.5

Tyrod Taylor should be much better with a game in hand and more reps during their BYE week. His running and escape-ability plays well as big underdog. The Titans have played 11 straight weeks with five signature wins in a row. Tennessee has been outgained by 262 combined yards in their past two wins. Red flag. Seems like a flat spot with the New England Patriots on deck. Tennessee has a massive injury list. Take the road dog!

5*LA Chargers -2.5

This will be the first West Coast game for the Vikings this season. Kirk Cousins sports a 1-5 SU record when playing on the West Coast with Minnesota. The Vikings played a physical overtime game against Baltimore last week, in which their defense was on the field for 89 plays and 46:04 of field time. The Chargers own a +0.3 yard differential, while the Vikings are -0.1 this season. Justin Herbert's QBR is 64.1 while Cousins' QBR is 55.3. The Chargers offensive line is ranked No. 17, while the Vikings are ranked No. 28 at Football Outsiders. NFL teams are 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS after playing the Ravens without rest this season. Minnesota possibly missing six starters on defense and they play Green Bay at home next week. Take LAC!

5*San Francisco 49ers +2.5

The 49ers bring in the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. SF defensive line is ranked No. 5 while Arizona is ranked No. 21. Kyler Murray is questionable to start. I'm hearing Arizona wants to hold him out until he's 100% healthy. That won't be this week. Colt McCoy will start for Arizona. The 49ers lost 17-10 earlier this season, despite out-gaining Arizona 338-304. Kyle Shanahan knows how to defend Murray just in case he starts. I think this is the perfect time to start fading Kliff Kingsbury and company. Kyle Shanahan is 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in revenge games over the past three years. Take the home dog!

10*Indianapolis Colts +1.5

The Colts are ranked No. 15 in overall team efficiency, while the Titans are ranked No. 20 at Football Outsiders. The Titans have a -0.4 net yard differential, while the Colts have a 0.0 net yard differential through the first seven weeks. The Colts are really good in same-season revenge games at home. The Titans defeated the Colts 25-16, as 5-point home chalk despite having a -3 turnover differential. It was a 1-point game entering the 4th quarter. Tennessee has won & covered three straight games with an impressive +51 ATS margin. This is a huge letdown spot for a team that has allowed 21 sacks (28th) and will be playing inside a dome for the first time this season. The Titans will be without their top three tackles which makes this play even stronger. The Colts are ranked No. 12 against the run, while the Titans are ranked No. 22 this season. The Colts are 8-2 straight-up in October over the past three seasons and 7-3 ATS at home against the Titans. Take the home dog!

3*San Francisco 49ers -4

The Colts want to run the ball to setup play-action. The 49ers strength is their run defense as they have't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 25 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. San Francisco has two weeks to prepare for a hobbled Colts' team in this prime-time affair. East Coast teams playing in Prime-time (8:00 PM E or later) on the West coast have been a solid play against, as the West Coast teams are 52-29-6 ATS. The Colts defeated Houston 31-3 last week and out-gained the Texans by just a 388-353 mark. The Colts have a huge division game against the Titans next week. Take the hungry host! 

3*Philadelphia Eagles +3

The Eagles have 10 days to prepare coming off Thursday's loss against Tampa Bay. Philadelphia has played the 6th-toughest schedule so far this season. Trap line. You have a 4-2 home team vs. 2-4 road team "only" laying a FG. This line suggests the Eagles and Raiders are just about even on a neutral field. There will be 40% Eagles' fans which adds value to this line. The Raiders were all in last week. I see a major letdown before their BYE week. Las Vegas is 3-9 ATS as a favorite over the past three years. Take the Eagles plus the points!

4*Cincinnati Bengals +6.5

The Bengals scored 6 points combined in losing both meetings last season. The Ravens beat up the Bengals pretty good. Baltimore will be missing numerous key players that made a huge difference last season. The Bengals net yards per play is +0.8, while the Ravens are +0.1 this season. Cincinnati has the 6th-best offensive line, while the Ravens have the 24th-best according to Football Outsiders. The Bengals are ranked No. 2 in opponent net yards per play while the Ravens are ranked No. 21 this season. The Bengals are ranked No. 6 in opponent passer rating while the Ravens are ranked No. 13. Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase can't be stopped in the 4th quarter so the backdoor will always be open. Take the road dog! 

5*Las Vegas Raiders +4

5*Detroit Lions +3.5

The Lions return to Ford Field for their only home game in a four week span. The Lions are playing hard and will continue to play hard. They love their coach. The Lions will be getting back two key players. Expect WR Tyrell Williams and DE Kevin Strong to be activated after both starters went down with a concussion in week one. The Bengals are coming off an emotional OT loss against the Packers. Teams are just 1-3 SU after playing Green Bay this season. The Bengals' three wins have come against teams with a combined 4-11 record. Take the Lions plus the points and try a slice on the money line!  

5*San Francisco 49ers +5.5

The 49ers have the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. San Francisco defeated the Cardinals 20-12 as 6-point road underdogs last December with C. J Beathard under center. The Cardinals have very little film on Trey Lance which is going to be a big factor in this game. Don't forget, the 49ers have played more games in Arizona than normal due to the pandemic. The 49ers outgained Seattle by 200+ yards last week. This is a great spot to take the points in a division game!

4*Cincinnati Bengals +3

This is one of the stronger technical plays in quite some time. Green Bay is favored from name recognition only. The Packers are ranked No. 23 in total defense while the Bengals are ranked No. 5 at Football Outsiders. The Packers are ranked No. 31 in opponent red zone scoring while the Bengals are ranked No. 12. The Packers have played a slightly tougher schedule, but the Bengals are at home with extra time to prepare and get healthy. The Bengals defense is ranked No. 5 (86.5) in opponent passer rating while Green Bay is ranked No. 18 (100.2). The Bengals are ranked No. 4 in special teams while Green Bay is ranked No. 19. The Packers will be missing numerous key personnel on defense which makes these stats even stronger. Joe Burrow's QBR is 53.8. Aaron Rogers' QBR is 55.8. Not much difference. Love winning teams getting points at home with the much better defense. Take the home dog in this upset maker!

4*Carolina Panthers +5

The Panthers have 10 days to prepare after having won in Texas on Thursday night. Dallas is coming off a division win against a rookie head coach on MNF and now must play on short rest at 1:05 PM E. Dallas is caught in a Philly/Carolina/NYG sandwich. Just seems like a bad spot to me. I have many notes going back to the early 2000's that says fade Dallas at home against winning teams when playing at 1:05 PM E. It's not a start time they are accustomed too. Carolina is ranked No. 1 in third-down defense and No. 11 in third down conversion percentage. You know how intelligent of a head coach I believe Matt Rhule is. He won't get out-coached. Dallas is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against winning teams. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in their past seven October games. I think we're getting one point of value so lets grab the five points ASAP. 

4*New York Jets +7

The Titans are dealing with numerous injuries up and down the roster. It looks like AJ Brown and Julio Jones will be out. Even if those two play, it won't be at a high level. New York will able to focus on stopping D. Henry. The Jets are coming off a humiliating loss scoring 0 points. Returning home is the key handicap. The Jets have a sneaky good defense especially against the run. The Jets are ranked No. 13 against the run while the Titans are ranked No. 24 at Football Outsiders. Tennessee is only ranked three spots higher in overall team efficiency. The Jets should be able to run the ball on this over-rated Titans' defense. That should open up some nice play-action completions for Wilson and company. The Jets are ranked No. 14 in special teams while Tennessee is ranked No. 27 thru three weeks. Take the Jets in this upset special! 

4*Minnesota Vikings +2

Minnesota returns home and could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. The Seahawks defeated the Vikings 27-26 as 6.5-point home chalk last year despite getting outgained 449-314. Minnesota had a 31-18 First down advantage too. After two games, the Vikings are ranked No. 2 in third-down defense while the Seahawks are ranked No. 17. Lastly, the Seahawks played on the road, than at home, now another road game. Teams in this role to begin the season have been a solid play against in game three. Take the hungry host!

5*LA Rams +1.5

Tampa Bay is 2-0 (at home) this season despite getting outgained in both games. The Buccaneers have won 10 straight dating back to last season, scoring 30+ points in nine straight games which is an NFL record. The Rams have a lot of confidence going into this game. They defeated the Bucs 27-24 at Tampa with Goff (376 passing yards) under center last season. LA outgained TB 413-251. Tom Brady was 26-of-48 for 216 yards. Matthew Stafford has a QBR of 78.1 through two games while Tom Brady has a 65 QBR. This will be the Buccaneers first game on Turf in quite some time, not to mention first game outside the Eastern Time Zone. Antonio Brown is OUT, who is a key weapon on the outside and running jet sweeps. Brady and company might be looking ahead to next week's date with the New England Patriots. Take the Rams in this upset maker!

5*Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Both teams are coming off week 1 victories in relatively easy fashion. Remember, no NFL team is as good or bad as they looked the previous week. I was more impressed with the Eagles, who used physical play in dominating the Falcons as 3.5-point underdogs. The 49ers allowed the Lions to almost pull off a miracle comeback, while losing two key starters (RB1, CB1) to injury. Detroit had 31 First downs while SF had 21. After week one, Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles' defense eight spots higher over SF. This will be the second straight road game for the 49ers after having played in a dome the week before. The 49ers' defense was on the field for a league-high 84 plays, well above the average. San Francisco is learning a new defense going up against a duel-threat QB. Tough. The Eagles are 8-4 ATS as 3.5 to 9.5 underdogs over the past three seasons. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS vs. the NFC East of late. Lastly, the 49ers have two home games on deck against Green Bay and Seattle respectively. Take the home dog and try a slice on the money line too!

5*Carolina Panthers +3.5

The Saints are coming off a big upset victory against the Green Bay Packers. It was basically a BYE week as the Packers looked disengaged. Green Bay went 1-for-10 converting 3rd downs. This will be a completely different experience for the road team. It has been a crazy week around the Saints, dealing with coaches and one player in Covid-19 protocol. The Saints haven't had a "normal week" of practice since before Hurricane Ida. They are in Texas right now ahead of this game. The Saints will be without their starting Center (E. Mcoy) and backup Center. Tough. Carolina had 6 QB sacks against the Jets. This defense is very fast. Also Out for this game, Marshon Lattimore (CB) and Marcus Davenport (DE) with six more defenders listed questionable. The Saints swept the season series against the Panthers last season. Carolina did cover a 7-point road spread. Matt Rhule and company are taking this game very seriously. Take the generous 3.5 points and the money line (+160) as well!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

I think the Las Vegas Raiders are still celebrating that big comeback win on MNF. Very emotional game for the silver and black. I think this Raiders' defense will have their hands full against a pissed off team, full of skill players on the outside. It's a short week for the road team playing at 1:00 PM (10:00 AM Body Clock) against arguably the No. 1 front seven in football. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS after playing on Monday night. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, head coach John Gruden is 15-25 ATS in his career off a SU underdog win. Take the hungry host!

5*Detroit Lions +7.5

The Detroit Lions have a very good offensive line. They will be able to put some points on the board against a team that's learning a new defense. The 49ers also have a new offensive coordinator. I think Garoppolo and Lance splitting reps doesn't help either. This line is super inflated. Home teams getting 7+ points in week one has been very profitable. Take the home dog!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

Wow! The Bills' hype is off the charts right now. They will be good, but lets slow down on all the Josh Allen MVP talk. Mike Tomlin is a master motivator, especially as road underdogs. Pittsburgh is 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games as road underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS as 3.5 to 7.5-point dogs. The Bills defeated the Steelers 26-15 as 2-point home chalk in week 14. That victory cost the Steelers a No. 2 seed last season. The Steelers have been waiting for this game. Love their defense. Take the generous 6.5 points!

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+103)

This game will mark the 14th time in Super Bowl history that we'll be getting a rematch from the regular season and if the first 13 games are any indication, the Chiefs could be in for a fight. In Week 12, the Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 27-24, which is notable, because the team that won the regular season game has gone 6-7 straight-up in the Super Bowl rematch. Check this out! No AFC team has ever beaten an NFC team twice in one season. The Chiefs will be without their two best tackles, which is significant because the Chiefs' offensive line is ranked 14th while Tampa Bay's O'line is ranked 9th at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay's defensive line is ranked first while the Chiefs' defensive line is ranked 25th. Overall team defense, TB checks in fifth while KC is ranked 22nd. I can't ignore the fact that KC is ranked dead last in red zone defense, by a significant margin. The Chiefs are 6-8 ATS when playing on a grass field while Tampa Bay is 8-4 ATS on that same surface. Tom Brady knows how to win Super Bowls and we're getting 3 to 3.5 points at their home stadium. Take the hungry host!

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+102)

The Buccaneers dropped both games against the Saints this season. The first game was relatively close while the second matchup was not. I really believe this helps the Buccaneers maintain a focus like no other in this game. They should learn from it. It's very telling that the line is only 3 points considering how easily the Saints won both games. Tampa Bay had a minus -3 turnover margin in the first game and Tom Brady threw 3 interceptions in game two. The Saints held the Bears to a 10% conversion rate on 3rd down last week. I don't see that happening in this game. Tom Brady should be able to manipulate the Saints' defense especially with very little crowd noise to deal with. The Bucs have a +0.9 net yard differential while the Saints check in at +0.5. The Saints point differential is +9.2 while Tampa Bay checks in at +8.5. Finally, the Saints are ranked 29th in red-zone defense which is the second worst mark of all remaining playoff teams. Take Tampa Bay plus the points risking no juice.

5*Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-103)

I think the Ravens wanted to play the Titans after losing to them earlier this year in overtime (blew a 21-10 3rd quarter lead) and in last year's playoffs. Don't forget, Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-300 in that playoff game. The Titans also recovered three of their own three fumbles in that 28-12 victory. This is not the same Titans defense. A stop unit that is ranked 29th in total defense and 30th in sacks with just 19. On the flip side, the Ravens are ranked 9th in total defense and 13th in sacks with 39 according to Football Outsiders. Special teams really matters in the postseason. The Ravens are ranked 2nd while Tennessee is ranked 28th. The Ravens net yard differential is +0.7 while Tennessee's is +0.3. The Titans pass defense is allowing 7.0 pass yards per attempt which ranks dead last of all the playoff teams. Baltimore is ranked 2nd in third-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd.

The Titans have played 7 games in 7 weeks, with Derrick Henry receiving a huge workload, to the tune of 34 carries and 250 rushing yards last week to surpass 2000 for the season. Tennessee never really had a normal BYE week due to Covid-19. The Ravens are a bit more fresh having played just 6 games in 7 weeks. The Titans went 1-3 SU since week eight when facing QB's with a QBR of 70 or above at the start of the game. Baltimore's point differential is +10.3 while the Titans are +3.2. I think this line should be 4.5 to 5. The Titans have cluster injuries on their offensive line with Saffold, Wilson, Sambralio, and Lewan likely out. I will swallow 3.5 points and take the better team with the hungry Ravens.

3*LA Rams +3 (+103)

The Rams will start John Wolford at QB and he's got some running ability. The Cardinals are ranked 30th in defending mobile QB's this season. That have no game tape on him. Advantage Rams. Wolford has been in McVay's system for two years and Aaron Donald thinks he will play well after seeing his preparation and practice every day for over two years. The Rams are ranked 4th in third-down defense and 2nd in opponent passer rating. The Rams are ranked 2nd in penalties committed while the Cardinals are ranked 32nd. The Rams are 3-1 SU after two or more consecutive losses under McVay and they lost their last home game to the Jets as 17-point chalk. Arizona is 1-4 ATS against winning teams this season. I have herd rumblings that Kyler Murray and the head coach (Kingsbury) are butting heads. I'll take the points with the Rams in what amounts to a playoff game.

10*Green Bay Packers -3

The Titans have scored 30+ points in five straight games and now must play their 4th road game in six weeks. The Titans have won and covered two in a row defeating cupcakes Detroit and Jacksonville. They now take a huge jump up in class. The Packers are motivated wanting a first round BYE and Green Bay scored just 3 points in the second half of last week's win over Carolina. Green Bay is ranked 9th in sacks (38) while Tennessee is ranked 32nd with just 14 QB take downs. Aaron Rodgers should be able to move the ball fairly easy against a not so good Titans' secondary. The Packers are ranked 18th in total defense while Tennessee is ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. Green Bay is ranked 10th in 3rd-down defense while Tennessee is ranked 32nd. The Titans are ranked 29th in special teams and will have to play with a 50% chance of snow showers in the forecast. Ryan Tannehill has a passer rating of 44 in games when the kick-off temp is below 40 degrees. The Titans converted 81.8% on 3rd down last week. These teams are fade bait the very next week especially against a quality opponent. The Packers are 19-9 SU and 16-9 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1993. I love the cheese heads in this one!

4*Denver Broncos +6

The Buffalo Bills have covered the spread in five straight games, including last Sunday's (night) thrilling win over the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. They have a big division game on deck against New England. The Broncos are a sneaky good team ranking #1 in red-zone defense. Drew Lock is coming off his best performance of his career throwing 4 TD's at Carolina. I think he can ride that momentum into this contest. The Bills have played just three games on grass this season going 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Broncos are 6-3 ATS on that same surface and 7-2 ATS against the AFC. Take the home dog!

4*LA Chargers +2.5

The Falcons are coming off a revenge game against New Orleans having played them two weeks prior. Atlanta's next three games are against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay again. Seems like a flat spot especially since the LA Chargers are coming off their worse loss (45-0) in franchise history. The Falcons committed just one penalty last week. I don't see that happening again. The Falcons' defense was on the field for 75 plays against New Orleans. They now must fly out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 19th. Atlanta likes to throw the ball a lot which is LAC's strength. The Chargers are ranked 6th, allowing 214.4 passing yards per game. On the flip side, the Falcons are ranked 30th, allowing 285 passing yards per game. The Chargers are ranked 13th in red-zone defense while Atlanta is ranked 30th in that same category. The Chargers are allowing 5.5 yards per play (15th) on defense while the Falcons are allowing 6.2 (tied for last). I would expect a much better effort for the home team from what we witnessed against the Patriots. Take the points!  

5*Cleveland Browns +6

The Titans are coming off an emotional revenge blowout win against the Colts. They were all in having lost two weeks prior. To show you how focused the Titans were last week check this out. Tennessee is ranked 16th in opponent yards per rush (4.3), however last week they allowed just 2.7 yards per rush against a solid rushing and well-coached team. The Browns are ranked 19th in team defense while the Titans are ranked 28th at Football Outsiders. The Titans are ranked 29th in QB sacks (14) while the Browns are ranked 12th in sacks (27) this season. Tennessee is ranked #32 in third-down defense. A big reason why they are just 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season. The Titans have eight wins and the combined record of those eight teams is 40-47. Finally, last season in week 1 the Titans put a whipping on Cleveland 43-13 as 5.5-point road underdogs. Tennessee covered the spread by 35.5 points. The Browns actually outgained Tennessee 346-339. Baker Mayfield had 3 interceptions. The Browns have a much better coach and scheme this season. Take the road dog in this revenge spot!

4*San Francisco 49ers +7

The 49ers have two weeks to prepare against a division rival while the Rams will be playing on a short week after an upset win on MNF. A lot of bettors will take the Rams saying they have revenge. I'm not. Kyle Shanahan is a really good coach and has been great as an underdog in the division. I think this line is too high in my opinion. Should be closer to 5.5 points. Don't forget, the 49ers are ranked 7th in third-down defense which is key in covering spreads. San Francisco has some Covid concerns but will get some talented players back as well. Take the points!

4*Atlanta Falcons +5

The Falcons are very familiar with Jameis Winston at the QB position after spending his entire career with Tampa Bay. I always like getting points with the more efficient QB. Matt Ryan is ranked #6 in QBR (78.1) this season. Atlanta has two weeks to prepare for this division game. Jameis Winston is 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite of any kind. The Saints defeated SF 27-13 last week while getting outgained by 44 yards. SF also had a 21-17 edge in first downs. The 49ers committed 4 turnovers otherwise it would have been a different result. Atlanta is ranked 8th in third-down defense while the Saints are ranked 22nd. Lets take the points in this upset maker. 

5*LA Rams -1

Two weeks ago, the Rams lost to the Dolphins 28-17 despite outgaining the fish by 326 yards. The Rams have allowed just 10 sacks while Seattle has allowed 24 sacks. The Rams are ranked #1 in opponent yards per play (4.7) while Seattle is ranked #28 (6.2) this season. The Rams are ranked 3rd in third-down defense while Seattle checks in at #24. The Rams are ranked 10th in third-down offense while Seattle is ranked 30th, which is quite surprising. LAR has outgained the Seahawks in the past six meetings going 4-2 SU during that span. The Rams are ranked #5 (84.2) in passer rating against while Seattle is ranked #23 (98.2). Seattle is not the same on offense without Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. Both are out again. They also have an injury list longer than my recent CVS receipt. In this division game, take the home team with the far superior defense and two weeks to prepare. 

5*Arizona Cardinals -1.5

Arizona dropped a tough one last week 34-31 despite outgaining the Dolphins by 130 yards. The Cardinals have scored 30+ points in four straight games. Buffalo is coming off its biggest win of the season and must now travel out of the Eastern time zone for the first time since October 13th. The Bills also lost two key offensive lineman in that big win. The Cardinals own the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. Arizona is ranked 7th in third-down defense while the Bills are ranked 23rd. The Cardinals are ranked 10th in passer rating against while the Bills are ranked 20th. Arizona is ranked 10th in total defense while the Bills are ranked 17th at Football Outsiders. I like the Cardinals to bounce back at home against a Bills' team off an emotional victory. 

4*Arizona Cardinals -4.5

The Dolphins are coming off a phony victory against the Rams. LA outgained Miami 471-145 and had 31 first downs compared to just 8 for the Dolphins. The Rams ran 92 plays and Miami must face an offense ranked 3rd in yards per game (424.6). Arizona likes to run an up-tempo offense. Tough spot for the Dolphins defense. Tua needs more time (reps) and his first road start against a rested well-prepared team does not bode well. The Cardinals are 7-3 SU in their past 10 games dating back to last season. This squad seems to be on a mission right now. Both teams are in the top 5 in third down defense, however Arizona is ranked 13th in third down offense, while Miami checks in at 29th. The Dolphins' offensive line and defensive line are both ranked 30th at Football Outsiders. Miami is 3-10 SU in games played on artificial/field turf of late. Lay it!

5*Denver Broncos +3 (+105)

The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing setback at the hands of the KC Chiefs. I believe the 43 points were the most allowed by a team coached (Head, Defense) by Vic Fangio. Also, draw a line in Drew Lock's performance as he's never played well in the snow. It will be a much nicer day in Denver with temps in the low 60s. Actually, the Broncos outgained KC  411-286, but committed 4 turnovers. Denver ran 76 plays while the Chiefs ran just 51. Denver's defense should be relatively fresh. The Broncos are ranked 4th in third down defense in all of football. The Chargers ran 77 plays on offense in beating Jacksonville and now must play a pissed off Broncos team at high altitude. Tough. Finally, The Broncos have a passer rating against of 78.2 while the Chargers have a passer rating against of 100.1. Take the Broncos plus the generous 3 points with plus juice.