3*Arizona D-Backs -136

After playing multiple consecutive games outside, the Chicago Cubs will play their first road game in a true indoor stadium. The team is sending rookie Ben Brown to the bump, with a ground-ball rate of 35.7%, a 64.3% hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 96.3 MPH, ranking last in baseball. Brown's pitching style may not be effective in Arizona, as he only uses two pitches. Merrill Kelly induces ground balls 47.1% of the time, allowing a 25.5% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 86.8 MPH. He has consistently performed better in games played at Chase Field than away games.

3*Baltimore Orioles -133 (Hall/Kremer)

I love betting on winning home teams that lost by ten or more runs in their previous game. The Baltimore Orioles have won three out of four games this season after a defeat, and Dean Kremer has a perfect record of 3-0 after a loss dating back to the last season. Kremer has been impressive, as he has managed to limit the opposition's batting average to .170. DL Hall last pitched seven days ago and might be too eager to face his former team. Hall's numbers don't look great, with a 4.82 ERA and 4.97 FIP, suggesting he's still trying to figure things out. Additionally, his .350 batting average against is concerning. I like the Orioles in this spot! 

4*Houston Astros +121 (Javier/Scherzer)

The Houston Astros have been performing exceptionally well when playing away from home this season, with a record of 51 wins and 30 losses. When Javier takes the mound, Houston's record is 22-10, and they have dominated their last five games at Global Life Stadium, winning all five. On the other hand, Max Scherzer hasn't pitched in over a month and will have a limited pitch count. The Rangers bullpen has been struggling at home this season, with an ERA of 4.99. The Astros at plus money. Yes!

3*Toronto Blue Jays -104 (Cole/Berrios)

This is a rematch from last Thursday, where the Yankees and Cole beat Berrios and the Blue Jays. Gerrit Cole has pitched 200 innings this season and now is the time to fade him. Advanced metrics reveal that Berrios has a lower hard-hit rate of 35.8% compared to Cole's 39.7%. Moreover, Berrios has a lower average exit velocity of 1.1 MPH. It is worth noting that the Blue Jays had only three hits in their shutout loss on Tuesday. I like the home team to bounce back!

3*Texas Rangers -119 (Miller/Dunning)

The Rangers have a strong record against fastballs, which is good news since Bryce Miller throws that pitch almost two-thirds of the time. Unfortunately for Miller, his ground ball rate is just 32.4%, which may not work in his favor at Globe Life Stadium. On the other hand, Dane Dunning has a ground ball rate of 46.3%, which could be an advantage. It's also worth noting that teams that have recently swept the Oakland A's have historically performed poorly in their next game against a different team. I like the Rangers tonight!

3*Chicago White Sox +116 (Clevinger/Olson)

Mike Clevinger had a rough outing on Saturday, giving up eight earned runs against the Tigers, the highest in his career. Detroit beat the Yankees 10-3 in The Bronx on Thursday and now return home. Speaking of Clevinger, he has a career record of 57-37 with an ERA of 3.45 and has struck out 781 batters in 758.1 innings. Reed Olsen boasts a hard-hit rate of 40.6%, which is higher than Clevinger's hard-hit rate of 33.9%. I like the White Sox in this rematch!

3*LA Dodgers -120 (Pepiot/Garrett)

The Dodgers will start their young pitching sensation, Ryan Pepiot, with a batting average of just .163 against him and an impressive hard-hit rate of only 22.9%. Braxton Garrett has pitched a career-high of 140 innings. His ERA is 2.74 on the road, compared to 4.94 at home. His BABIP has increased to .309, and his hard-hit rate is at a season-high of 46%. The Dodgers aim to avoid a series sweep, having previously beaten Garrett at Dodger Stadium last month. Additionally, LA boasts an impressive 11-3 record when playing on Thursdays this season. I like the Blue Crew in this spot!

3*San Diego Padres -134 (Cobb/Lugo)

Alex Cobb has thrown 579 pitches in August, with a career-high of 131 in Tuesday's complete game. He won't even have four days of rest before this day game. The San Diego Padres have a lineup with an OPS of .785 in 108 career at-bats against Cobb. After this game, the San Francisco Giants will travel to Chicago. Therefore, it's wise to take the Padres in this spot!

3*Baltimore Orioles -115 (Kikuchi/Rodriguez)

The Orioles have a .950 OPS in 106 at-bats against Kikuchi this season. Baltimore is 30-14 against left-handed pitchers, ranking 8th in OPS vs. lefties. On the other hand, the Blue Jays are 11-23 against the AL East, whereas Baltimore is 24-14 in division games this year. Grayson Rodriguez has been showing consistent improvement every month. Keep an eye on Ryan Mountcastle, who has an impressive .583 batting average with four home runs and 8 RBI in 12 at-bats against Kikuchi. Take the home team!

3*Houston Astros -126 (Paxton/Javier)

The Boston Red Sox just swept their arch-rivals, the New York Yankees, and are now headed to Houston to face the Astros, who lost all three of their games against the Mariners. Since 2018, James Paxton has allowed a .350 batting average when pitching at Minute Maid Park. Houston has a 16-7 record when Javier takes the mound, and the Astros are ranked No. 4 in OPS against left-handed pitchers. The Red Sox have a 4-9 record when playing on Mondays this season. I like the Astros in this spot!

4*San Diego Padres +108 (Gallen/Hill)

This game will feature the same pitching matchup just five days ago when Gallen and the D-Backs emerged victorious against Hill and the Padres. Arizona utilized six relievers in their win against Colorado on Wednesday. As a strategic move, I prefer to bet against teams that played at high altitude without a day off. Consequently, this presents a favorable opportunity to bet on the home team at plus money.

4*Cleveland Guardians -157 (Clevinger/Allen)

This is a rematch from six days ago when Clevenger and the White Sox defeated Allen and the Guardians. Logan Allen has a sterling ground-ball rate of 42.9% and a 3.98 FIP. Mike Clevenger's FIP is 4.68 with just a 31% ground ball rate. It's difficult for a starting pitcher to conquer the same team twice in less than a week. Take the home team!

3*Philadelphia Phillies -116 (Kremer/Sanchez)

Dean Kremer's ground-ball percentage is 36.2%, while Sanchez has a 54.4% ground-ball rate. Interleague home teams have a high winning percentage in game one. Starting pitchers with a GB rate of 50% or higher usually pitch well in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies!

4*Toronto Blue Jays -115 (Darvish/Berrios)

Yu Darvish has pitched only once in Toronto since 2017, and it did not go well. The Blue Jays are ranked No. 9 in OPS vs. right-handed starters. The Blue Jays' third and fourth batters went a combined 0-for-8 yesterday, and the team didn't have any extra-base hits. Two players to watch are Brandon Belt, batting .333 in 18 at-bats against Darvish, and George Springer, also batting .333 in 18 at-bats against Darvish. Both players have hit two home runs against Darvish in their careers. Jose Berrios induces ground balls at 45.8%, which ranks in the Top 15. Darvish is ranked No. 74. The Blue Jays are ranked No. 1 in defensive runs saved (+47). Take the home team in this spot!

3*Baltimore Orioles -110 (Wells/German)

Domingo German is coming off a perfect game against the Oakland A's. He threw a season-high 99 (tied) pitches. I will take the road team in this spot!

3*Miami Marlins -127 (Mikolas/Garrett)

The Cardinals haven't faced a left-handed starter in the past five games. Miles Mikolas has a ground-ball rate of 37.6%, while Braxton Garrett's ground-ball rate is 49.1% this season. Garrett threw just 66 pitches in his last start and should be relatively fresh. Take the home team!

2*Seattle Mariners +111 (McClanahan/Miller)

Shane McClanahan was removed from his last start due to back tightness, but he will have eight days of rest before pitching again. Despite his impressive 2.23 ERA for the season, his FIP is higher at 3.65, and he had a season-high 2.70 ERA in June. Bryce Miller's ERA is 3.88, but his FIP is even better at 3.38. Tampa Bay ranks 16th in OPS (.719) for June, while Seattle ranks 18th (.701). It's worth noting that the Mariners have won 14 of their last 18 home games against left-handed starters. Take the home team for plus money!

3*Arizona D-Backs -126 (Bradley/Gallen)

Tampa Bay makes their first trip to Arizona for the first time since 2016. Zac Gallen has a 2.58 FIP, while inducing ground-balls 37.5% in his starts. Arizona is 11-5 when Zac Gallen is on the "bump" this season. Take the home team!

3*Miami Marlins +122 (Gausman/Alcantara)

Sandy Alcantara has been incredibly successful in day games, stifling opposing hitters with a .223 batting average since 2021. After a team loss, he’s been immensely dependable. Sandy has had an impressive run when playing against the AL, boasting a 9-2 record along with 3.36 ERA and 3.37 FIP. The only Blue Jay who has had much success against him is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is 5-for-7 with one home run in his career. The Marlins are proficient at putting the ball in play (ranking No. 9 in hits), and Kevin Gausman has an alarming .326 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Seems like a great spot to back the home team at plus money!

3*LA Dodgers -113 (Webb/Gonsolin)

The Dodgers are 21-10 after a loss this season, and they are coming off an embarrassing 15-0 defeat on Saturday. Tony Gonsolin is 30-7 with a 2.42 ERA in his big-league career, and has pitched great off a team loss. The Giants bullpen is tired, having pitched 13+ innings in their last three games. Take the blue crew!

3*Boston Red Sox -109 (German/Houck)

The Yankees and Red Sox are set to face each other again in a rematch from Saturday, when New York won 3-1. It's a difficult task for any starting pitcher to beat the same team twice in less than 7 days. I like to focus on a pitcher’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rather than the traditional ERA (Earned Run average) when handicapping baseball. Domingo's earned run average (ERA) is 3.49, however his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) for this season is 4.38. In contrast, Tanner has an ERA of 5.23, while his FIP stands at 4.30, suggesting he has been a bit unlucky this season. Tanner has a higher ground-ball rate of 50.3%, compared to Domingo's 39.3% this season. I like the Red Sox in this spot!

3*St. Louis Cardinals -104 (Cobb/Flaherty)

Alex Cobb has an alarming hard-hit rate of 44.2% and is coming off an injury; opposing hitters are batting .276 against him. Jack Flaherty, on the other hand, will be pitching with an extra day of rest and has a much lower hard-hit rate of 33.7%, while holding hitters to a .249 batting average. The Cardinals have won 11 of the past 15 meetings against the Giants in St. Louis. Take the home team!

3*Seattle Mariners +123 (Gilbert/Musgrove)

Logan Gilbert's FIP is 3.14, while Musgrove's FIP is 4.71 this season. FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time. Logan is averaging 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, while Musgrove is averaging 8.4 per nine, which has declined in four straight seasons. Seattle is 15-4 against losing teams. The Padres are 4-8 against the American League. Take Seattle! 

3*Texas Rangers -103 (Castillo/Gray)

Luis Castillo is a stud, but has an ERA of 5.06 on the road. His hard-hit rate is 37% this season which is usually high for him. Jon Gray's hard-hit rate is 30% (career best), while holding hitters to a .215 batting average. His three pitch mix (Fastball, Slider, Change-up) all have different speeds from the same arm slot. He does throw a curve-ball 7.7% of the time. Texas owns a +131 run differential which ranks No. 1, and they are 13-6 after a loss. Strong angle. Take the home team!

3*Texas Rangers +115 (Gray/Rodriguez)

Jon Gray is limiting hitters to a .222 batting average, while Grayson Rodriguez has a .295 batting average against. He throws five pitches and he's having a tough time with the pitch clock. His hard-hit ranks in the bottom third at 52.0% so far this season. Texas is ranked No. 8 in defensive runs saved (+8), while Baltimore is ranked No. 19 (-3). The Baltimore Orioles are 8-22 in their last 30 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Take the road dog!

3*Chicago White Sox +120 (Cease/Allen)

This is a rematch from Thursday when Dylan Cease took the loss, despite allowing 3 earned runs at home. Logan Allen allowed just 1 earned run while throwing a season-high 102 pitches. The White Sox have a higher OPS (on base + slugging) against left-handed starters than right-handed starters. I like the underdog to bounce back after getting shutout on Monday!    

3*San Diego Padres +126 (Snell/May)

This is a rematch from six days ago when Dustin May and the Dodgers beat Blake Snell and the Padres. It's very difficult for a starting pitcher to defeat the same team twice in less than a week. The Dodgers are batting .201 against left-handed starters. Lets take the road underdog in this big time rivalry game.

4*St. Louis Cardinals +134 (Mikolas/Webb)

This will be the Giants' tenth straight game without a day off. They finally get a break on Friday before a weekend series against division rival, San Diego. The Cardinals are trying to avoid a four-game sweep. Miles Mikolas is pitching better than his ERA indicates (FIP almost two runs lower) and he's averaging a career-high 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Logan Webb's hard-hit rate is 44%, which is on the high side. Since 2018, Miles Mikolas is 15-9, while holding all hitters to a .247 batting average in all day games. Take the red birds at a great price!

4*LA Dodgers -145 (Urias/Smyly)

Drew Smyly and the Cubs defeated Julio Urias and the Dodgers five days ago at Dodger Stadium. I will gladly play the LA Dodgers in this rematch. It's very difficult for a pitcher to defeat the same team twice in less than a week. Take the blue crew!

2*Seattle Mariners -102 (Gilbert/Civale)

This is a rematch from six days ago. It's very difficult for a starting pitcher (Civale) to defeat the same team (Seattle) twice in less than a week. The Mariners should be more relaxed away from home. Take the road team in this spot!

3*Philadelphia Phillies +116 (Wheeler/Darvish)

Zack Wheeler has pitched just 153 innings this season, while Yu Darvish has pitched 194.2. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .182, while Darvish has a BABIP of .273. This seems like a letdown spot for the Padres after winning three straight against their bitter rivals. Take Philly!

5*Philadelphia Phillies -115  (Morton/Nola)

Charlie Morton hasn't started in 12 days and he throws his curve-ball 38% of the time. That's not easy to do with that much time off. Morton also sports an ERA of 5.72 in road games, and is 2-5 with a 4.29 ERA in all day games. Morton's FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 4.26 with a WAR (wins above replacement) of just 1.5 this season. His hard-hit rate is an alarming 42.1%. Aaron Nola's hard-hit rate is just 31%, with a sparkling WAR of 6.3 this season. Nola is 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA in day games. His FIP is 2.58 and will be pitching with six days of rest. Morton has pitched 26.1 innings vs. Philadelphia this season, allowing a .301 batting average. Nola has pitched 34.1 innings vs. Atlanta, allowing a .227 batting average. The Phillies check all the boxes for me! 

4*Philadelphia Phillies -135 (Odorizzi/Nola)

This is the same pitching match-up from six days ago when the Braves defeated Aaron Nola. It's very difficult for a team to beat the same starting pitcher twice in less than a week. Very strong angle. Aaron Nola has one of the lowest hard-hit rates (31.9%) in all of baseball. I love his three pitch mix that features a 4-seam fastball, 12-6 curveball, and change-up. Take the home team!

4*Baltimore Orioles -117

Brayan Bello brings in a road ERA of 9.00 and 2.25 WHIP. His hard-hit percentage is rather high at 41%. Austin Voth's home ERA is 3.72 along with a 1.48 WHIP. His hard-hit rate is 37% this season. The Orioles are ranked No. 8 (+40) in defensive runs saves, while the Red Sox are ranked No. 17 (+10) this season. Boston is 1-6 in their last seven games against winning teams. Baltimore is 26-12 after a loss, and 11-4 in series game one of late. Take the home team! 

4*Minnesota Twins -115  (Bello/Bundy)

Dylan Bundy is allowing a 38.2% hard-hit rate with a sparkling 2.68 ERA at home. Brayan Bello is still learning how to pitch at the big league level. His 7.36 ERA and 2.09 WHIP are red flags. He's allowing a 41.7% hard-hit rate and walks almost five batters per nine innings. The Twins are ranked No. 10 (+30) in runs saved, while Boston is ranked No. 16 (+12) this season. Minnesota is 10-2 when playing on Mondays. Take the home team!

3*St. Louis Cardinals +107 (Morton/Montgomery)

Charlie Morton is 3-12 with a 5.23 ERA in 19 starts vs. the Cardinals. He hasn't pitched at Bush stadium since 2015. That's a factor. Morton's road ERA is 5.23 ERA, while inducing a ground ball 38.9% of the time. Jordan Montgomery has thrived in the Cardinals' pitching rich system and induces a ground ball 47.1% this season. St. Louis is ranked No. 4 in defensive runs saved (+54), while the Braves are ranked No. 15 (+16) this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 following a loss of late. Take the home underdog!

4*Minnesota Twins -120  (Wood/Ryan)

The Twins return home after dropping six straight games. Joe Ryan's home ERA is 2.95, and holds batters to a 29.6% hard-hit rate overall. Alex Wood hasn't pitched in seven days and brings in a 38.5% hard-hit rate. Joe Ryan is 5-1 after a pitching loss of late, and the Twins are 6-1 in their last seven home games vs. left-handed starters. Minnesota is ranked No. 12 (+26) in defensive runs saved, while San Francisco is ranked No. 29 (-35) this season. Take the hungry host!

4*Cleveland Guardians -125  (Lynn/McKenzie)

Wow! I thought this line should be closer to -140. The Guardians have been really good against fastballs and Lynn throws that pitch 60.2% of the time. Lance has a road ERA of 7.46 this season. Tristan McKenzie is holding hitters to a .198 batting average with a sparkling 2.81 ERA at home. Take the Guardians in this one!

4*St. Louis Cardinals -137 (Ashby/Mikolas)

The Cardinals are ranked No. 3 in OPS (.785) against left-handed starters in all of baseball. A. Ashby hasn't pitched in eight days, while M. Mikolas is coming off his worst performance as a pro five days ago in Colorado. The Brewers have a date with the Dodgers tomorrow. Take the home team in this one!

4*Atlanta Braves +130 (Strider/Degrom)

The Braves got swept in a double dip on Saturday. Jacob will be on a strict pitch count in his second start back. Strider's FIP is almost a full run lower than his 3.30 ERA. His fastball/slider combo has been excellent leading to eight strikeouts per game. Take the underdog!

5*Tampa Bay Rays -102 (Bieber/Springs)

Would you believe the Cleveland Guardians haven't faced a left-handed starter for the last 22 games (July 3rd). It's true. The Indians are ranked No. 29 in OPS (.613) against southpaws this season. Shane Bieber has a .303 BABIP (Batting Average on balls in play) while allowing a 43% hard-hit rate. Jeffrey Springs allows a 32.8% hard-hit rate and has three above average pitches. Fastball (92.1 MPH) 48.6% of the time, change-up (81.4) 29% of the time, and a slider (83.7) 22.1% of the time. The Rays are 9-1 last 10 meetings and 23-11 when the total is 7 or less. Take the home team!

3*Houston Astros -118  (Urquidy/Gonzales)

The Mariners have won 14 in a row heading into the All-Star break. I like fading these teams after taking four days off. Houston has a lot of momentum after sweeping the Yankees in a double header on Thursday. Light play on the road team!

3*Miami Marlins -105  (Suarez/Meyer)

The Marlins will start rookie right-hander Max Meyer, who ranks No. 21 in MLB top 100 prospects. Max has a plus fastball (92-98 MPH) and the best slider coming out of the 2020 class. Miami hasn't lost two straight to the Phillies in quite some time. Philadelphia is ranked No. 26 in defensive runs saved (-20), while the Marlins are ranked No. 10 this season (+20). Light play on the home team!

4*St. Louis Cardinals +110  (Nola/Mikolas)

The Red Birds look for a split in this four-game series. Philadelphia is ranked No. 28 in defensive runs saved (-21), while the Cardinals are ranked No. 7 (tied) this season (+30). With an expected low-scoring game, lets take the better defensive squad as a home underdog. The Phillies will be traveling to Canada after this game. Lots of distractions. Take St. Louis!

5*St. Louis Cardinals +101  (Wheeler/Wainwright)

Simple one for me. This is a rematch (same starters) from Sunday night when Philadelphia blanked St. Louis on Sunday Night baseball. I will gladly take the Red Birds at home as an underdog in this quick turnaround revenge spot. Get down quickly before the line shifts!

5*Cleveland Guardians +115 (Smeltzer/Plesac)

Day Action! This is a rematch from Thursday when Smeltzer out-pitched Plesac in getting the win. Devin Smeltzer's ERA is 3.05, but he's got a 4.93 FIP (fielding independent pitching). It's a more accurate stat of how a pitcher is performing. He has struggled on the road with a 4.87 ERA and FIP over 5.50. Zac Plesac has a 16.7 K-rate, while Devin has a K-rate of just 12.6%. Smeltzer produces a swinging strike just 7.4% of the time, which ranks near the bottom of the league. Zac's batting average against on balls in play (BABIP) is .275, while Devin checks in at .294 this season. I really really like the home team in this spot!

4*Atlanta Braves -127 (Rodon/Morton)

Charlie Morton has pitched better than his ERA indicates. His FIP is nearly a full run lower and Morton has 75 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. The Braves are ranked No. 5 in OPS (.821) vs. left-handed starters, going 16-7 this season. Atlanta is 19-9 after a loss, including 3-0 by 10+ runs this season. Take the home team!

4*Philadelphia Phillies -121 (Alcantara/Nola)

The line has come all the way down to where I think there's value on the home team. I also like Aaron Nola at home off a team loss. Take the Phillies in this one! 

4*Kansas City Royals -130  (Kremer/Keller)

3*Milwaukee Brewers -108 (Saurez/Alexander)

The Brewers faced Saurez early this season and should have a good read on him. Jason Alexander makes his second career start after pitching well in his debut. I love backing future prospects in their second start if they showed me something in the first outing. Milwaukee owns the better bullpen, and they are 22-12 vs. losing teams. Take the Brew crew!

5*Minnesota Twins -118  (Smeltzer/Lynch)

The Twins are 9-5 vs. left-handed starters with an OPS of .739 this season. Kansas City is 3-7 against lefties with an OPS of .650. The Royals will be without two key starters, including Salvador Perez. Minnesota gets the call in this massive underlay!

4*Seattle Mariners +122 (Gilbert/Berrios)

Jose Berrios has an ERA of 5.82 with just 24 strikeouts in 34 IP. I don't think he's completely healthy. His FIP is 5.13 which is well above his career numbers. The Mariners first four batters went 0-for-16 in yesterday's setback, totaling four hits total (3 singles, 1 double). Logan Gilbert took the loss pitching at Rodgers Centre last August and now returns a much improved pitcher. I like the road team!

10*Colorado Rockies -135  (Greinke/Freeland)

The Rockies return home after getting swept by San Francisco. The Royals will start Z. Greinke, who has struggled at Coors field. And that's when he was throwing in the mid 90s. I think the Rockies will feast on his "stuff". Kansas City is ranked No. 26 in OPS (on base+slugging) vs. left-handed starters. Kyle Freeland has been great at home off a team loss in his career. Colorado is 5-0 in their past five home games against losing AL teams of late. More of the same!

3*New York Mets -118  (Nola/Megrill)

The Mets were off on Thursday after Wednesday's ugly loss, allowing 10 runs. The Phillies are one of the worst defensive teams in league history. I like the Mets to get back on track at home in this one!

3*Oakland A's +224 (Jefferies/Rodon)

Seems like a tough spot for the favorite. The Giants return home from a long road trip, playing 12 games in 11 days--- against five different teams. SF will be playing its third game in a row against a different opponent. Not easy to do in baseball. This line is way too high. Take the road dog! 

3*Cincinnati Reds +157 (Musgrove/Sanmartin)

Last week, the Padres swept the Reds as part of Cincinnati's winless seven-game road swing. Joe Musgrove will head to the hill for San Diego in the opener in hopes of repeating his last outing against Cincinnati at Petco Park. The right-hander struck out seven and walked one, allowing just two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings. He earned the win in San Diego's 6-2 victory last Tuesday. The Reds will counter with lefty Reiver Sanmartin, who was the opposing pitcher to Musgrove last week. It's very difficult for a team to beat the same starting pitcher twice in seven days. I like the Reds in this spot!

4*Atlanta Braves +113 (Fried/Woodruff)

The Brewers have not seen Max Fried since 2019. Milwaukee is ranked No. 23 in OPS against left-handed starters. It's been three years since Milwaukee has scored a run off Max Fried. Love the Braves lineup against Woodruff. Dansby Swanson should have a big game. Atlanta defeated Woodruff earlier this season without Ronald Acuna Jr. The Braves are 18-10 when Fried takes the bump. Away team gets the call!

4*LA Angels -124 (Hearn/Junk)

Taylor Hearn's ERA is 3.96, but his FIP is 4.79. Fielding independent pitching measures a pitcher's effectiveness at preventing HR's, walks, HBP, and causing strikeouts. It takes the randomness of balls in play out of the equation. Janson Junk was acquired in a trade with the Yankees. The Rangers have never seen him. Texas is ranked 14th in OPS (.678) against right-handed starters. The Angels are ranked 6th in OPS (.748) against left-handed starters. Second straight day the Angels face a lefty which is an advantage. The Rangers are 16-32 in day games. Take the home team!

3*Atlanta Braves -127 (Desclafani/Anderson)

The Giants will be playing their 13th straight game in as many days. They don't have their lineup out yet and it's just about 1 hour until game time. The Braves are 7-4 after getting shutout over the past three seasons. Light play on the home team! 

3*Atlanta Braves -123 (Gausman/Fried)

Max Fried has a 0.67 ERA in his four starts in August. In three career appearances, two starts, against San Francisco, he is 2-0 with 2.03 ERA. The Giants are dealing with numerous injuries to their everyday lineup. They just swept the Mets and now travel to Atlanta. Take the Braves!

4*Toronto Blue Jays -117  (Giolito/Ray)

The White Sox haven't faced a left-handed starter for five games and just one in the past 10 days. This will be the White Sox 10th game in 10 days. The White Sox banged out a season-high 18 hits in yesterday's 5-2 victory. I like the Blue Jays in this one!

3*Toronto Blue Jays -125  (Cease/Berrios)

Toronto will start right-hander Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.52 ERA) on Tuesday. Obtained from the Minnesota Twins last month, he has faced the White Sox three times this season, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA. In 20 career starts against the White Sox, he is 12-4 with a 2.91 ERA. More importantly, Berrios is 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA at Rogers Center since 2018. He's holding hitters to a .189 batting average.

3*Detroit Tigers +118 (Ohtani/Skubal)

S. Ohtani has pitched much better at home than on the road this season. His ERA is 4.54 with an average start lasting only 5.1 innings. The Angels loose his bat when he's pulled from the mound. The Tigers are 14-4 when playing on Wednesday and look to be a solid underdog investment tonight.

4*Atlanta Braves -105  (Gray/Smyly)

The Reds will be playing their third different team in as many days. Seems tough. Cincinnati is ranked No. 24 in OPS (on base + slugging) against left-handed starters this season. Gray's ERA is 8.16 over his past three starts. Atlanta has played well since the trade deadline (6-2) and I like them in this spot.

3*Milwaukee Brewers -107  (Cueto/Anderson)

The Brewers will look to bounce back after committing a silly mistake that led to yesterday's loss. Milwaukee will send Brett Anderson to the hill. He's been solid in day games as batters are hitting just .227 against him. J. Cueto has a road ERA of 4.91 and 1.58 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .319 against the former Red. The Brewers are 31-14 in day games this season. This will be the Giants' 13th straight game without a day off. They finally get one on Monday. Take the Brewers!

3*Cincinnati Reds -120  (Maeda/Mahle)

Kenta Maeda's ERA is over 5.00 on the road and August has always been a tough month for the former Dodger. Mahle has struggled at home, but has pitched well against the Twins. The Reds are 14-7 when he's on the bump while the Twins are 5-12 with Maeda on the hill. Cincinnati is 11-3 when playing after a day off this season. This line opened at -140, which I thought was high. Like the Reds at this current number for 3 units!

3*Cleveland Indians +103 (Wainwright/Quantrill)

Cal Quantrill (2-2, 3.84 ERA) will look to continue his strong pitching when he takes the mound Tuesday. Quantrill owns a 2-0 record with a 3.22 ERA in four starts in July after allowing one run on four hits in six innings of a no-decision versus Tampa Bay on Thursday. Adam Wainwright has an 5.35 ERA on the road this season. The Cardinals are 2-5 against the AL and 5-10 when playing after a day off this season. Take the home team!

3*Milwaukee Brewers -123 (Giolito/Peralta)

Milwaukee has lost a season-high five straight home games and is looking to bounce back after dropping back-to-back games against Kansas City before Thursday's off day. The Brewers will turn to Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.39 ERA), who is making his first start since July 10. Freddy's ERA at home is 2.11 while holding hitters to a .109 batting average. Lucas Giolito is coming off a complete game gem and hasn't pitch great in starts after complete games. His ERA is 4.98 on the road this season. I like the Brewers in this one!

3*Detroit Tigers -105  (Gibson/Mize)

Casey Mize hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 13 starts. The Rangers will counter with All-Star Kyle Gibson. Gibson has faced the Tigers 24 times in his career, going 10-10 with a 5.51 ERA. The Rangers played a double-header on Sunday. I like the home team in this spot!

3*Washington Nationals +119 (Snell/Corbin)

The Padres scored in every inning except the 7th in last night's 24-8 thrashing. Washington committed three errors in arguably their worst game in franchise history. Blake Snell is 0-3 with an ERA over 9.00 on the road. The Nationals are ranked No. 6 in OPS against left-handed starters while the Padres are ranked No. 18 against lefties this season. Corbin has been great off a team loss. Take the Nats to bounce back!

3*Chicago Cubs +128  (Wheeler/Mills)

The Cubs have dropped 11 straight games since that combined no-hitter against the Dodgers. The Phillies have smacked around Chicago in the first two games of this series by a combined 28-13 score. Philadelphia is 14-26 after a victory this season. I think the Cubs will find a way to win this game and stop the bleeding.

4*Cincinnati Reds -115 (Hendricks/Miley)

The Cubs conclude their long road trip, facing a left-handed starter for the first time in one week. They have not won since their combined no-hitter against the Dodgers. Sunday will mark Kyle Hendrick's 20th career start against the Reds, his 11th in Cincinnati. He is 6-5 with a 4.39 ERA lifetime, including 2-5 with a 6.67 ERA in Cincinnati. He has allowed five runs or more in his last three starts in Cincinnati dating to Aug. 10, 2019, going 0-3 with a 12.46 ERA during that span. The Reds counter with lefty Wade Miley (6-4, 3.09). In six starts since coming off the 10-day IL, Miley is 2-0, 2.61. Reds batters scored at least 10 runs in five of his starts, including three of his last four starts, with the Reds going 5-0 in those starts. Cincinnati is 20-12 against the NL Central. Reds Sweep!

3*Cincinnati Reds -120 (Alzolay/Mahle)

Alzolay allowed a season-high six runs (four earned) in three innings in his last start on Sunday vs. the Dodgers. He is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA in two starts since returning from the IL on June 21 and 0-3 with a 9.28 ERA in his last three starts dating to June 7. The Reds are 11-5 when Tyler Mahle takes the bump. Take the home team against the road weary Cubs.

3*New York Yankees -122 (Ohtani/German)

Shohei Ohtani exploded offensively with two more dingers on Tuesday. This will be Ohtani's first pitching start ever at Yankee Stadium. I just think he struggles against a Yankees' lineup who is ranked No. 3 in OPS over the last month. His ERA at home (1.73) is much lower than his road ERA (3.91). D. German is holding opposing batters to a .220 average this season. New York owns the much better bullpen ERA. I like the Yankees in this one!

3*Minnesota Twins -134  (Ober/Sheffield)

The Twins got crushed on Tuesday and have been hitting left-handed starters hard this season. Minnesota is ranked No. 5 in OPS against left-handed starters in the AL. Justus Sheffield struggled mightily with diminished velocity and hard contact from the Tigers his last time out, lasting a season-low four innings. Seattle is batting a major league low .191 at home this season. Baily Ober has impressed the Twins enough to earn this start. Twins avoid the sweep!

3*Houston Astros -128  (Valdez/Pineda)

The heart (three thru five) of the Astros lineup went a combined 0-for-12 in Saturday's setback. Framber Valdez's past two outings have both lasted into the eighth inning, and he has 22 strikeouts versus just four walks in 18 1/3 innings. The Twins haven't seen much of him. On the flip side, the Astros have hit Pineda hard in the past. His ERA is over 5.00 against Houston since 2017. Take the road team!

3*Minnesota Twins +101 (Garcia/Berrios)

The Twins are now a home underdog after a lot of money bet on the Houston Astros. Jose Berrios has been excellent off a team loss in his career. He's won five starts in a row and held the Astros to two earned runs in last year's wild card game. Luis Garcia has been great, but I like the Twins in this spot. Take the home underdog!

4*Houston Astros +103 (Garcia/Matz)

Luis Garcia is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last four starts, throwing a career-high seven innings of one-run ball against the Red Sox in his last start. This will be his first career start against the Blue Jays which helps Houston in my opinion The Astros saw Matz on May 8th. He allowed three earned runs on eight hits with four strikeouts. Houston is ranked No. 2 in OPS (american league) against left-handed starters. I think the Astros will score early and often in this spot!

3*Atlanta Braves -134 (Strasburgh/Fried)

Max Fried has allowed exactly one run in each of the four starts he has made since returning from the injured list. He's pitched extremely well at home over his career. The Nationals are 4-7 against left-handed starters this season. Light play on the home team!

3*Cleveland Indians +118 (Hentges/Turnbull)

Spencer Turnbull makes his first start since his no-hitter on Tuesday. He’s 0-6 with a 5.18 ERA in nine career appearances against the Indians, who have hit .325 and slugged .482 against him. The Tigers are ranked dead last in OPS (on base + slugging) against left-handed starters in all of baseball. Light play on the road team.

4*New York Yankees -102  (Rodon/Montgomery)

Both teams are red hot this month. The Yankees are 13-5 while Chicago is 12-5. The Yankees have seen a lot of Rodon. On the flip side, the White Sox have very few at-bats against Montgomery. I have a gut feeling that the Yankees are the right side.

4*Colorado Rockies -102 (Miley/Marquez)

I am fading Wade Miley off his no-hitter. The Rockies are ranked No. 2 in batting average and No. 5 in OPS (on base + slugging) against left-handed starters this season. Colorado is batting .292 against Miley at Coors Field. German Marquez has a lot more experience pitching at high-altitude than Miley. Take the Rockies!

4*Washington Nationals -127 (Anderson/Fedde)

I like the pitching matchup and the Nats usually play well against Philadelphia in game one at home ever since Bryce Harper left. Take the home team!

10*New York Mets -125 (Gallen/Peterson)

The Mets salvaged a four-game split after defeating the Cardinals on Thursday. They stranded 17 runners which is a franchise record for a 9-inning game. Arizona got swept in Florida and now play outdoors for the first time in three games. Tough. The Diamondbacks are 2-5 against left-handed starters and 1-8 in their past nine games at New York Mets. Dave Peterson has a nasty slider and the Mets have never seen him. The D-backs are also dealing with numerous injuries to their starting lineup. The Mets' bullpen has an ERA of almost two runs lower than Arizona. Take the Mets! 

4*St. Louis Cardinals -104 (Wheeler/Wainwright)

I will fade the Phillies after playing a three-game series at Colorado. Zack Wheeler has been much better at home than on the road. The Cardinals have the better run differential and bullpen so far this season. I like the red birds!

4*Chicago White Sox -140 (Dunning/Cease)

Dane Dunning returns to Chicago, where he made his Major League debut with the White Sox last season. He heads into his fourth start with a 0.60 ERA on the year. Playing against pitchers with an ERA below 1.00 in their fourth start has been very profitable over the years. The White Sox organization is very familiar with the type of "stuff" he brings to the table. Texas is 8-26 when playing with a day off over the past three seasons, including 0-2 this year. The Rangers are 3-7 against right-handed starters. The White Sox have the much better bullpen so far this season. Take the home team!

4*Cleveland Indians +105 (Rodon/Plesac)

Fading pitchers coming off a no-hitter have been a solid wager especially in April. Take the home team!

3*New York Yankees -108 (Glasnow/Montgomery)

In his last start (also against the Rays), Montgomery permitted four runs on five hits and two walks over five-plus innings. Tyler Glasnow is coming off his best outing of his career with 14 strikeouts against Texas. The Yankees committed three errors yesterday and Tampa Bay is 0-2 against left-handed starters this season. Take the Yankees!

3*Cincinnati Reds -116  (Allen/Hoffman)

The Indians are coming off a four-game series against a division rival. The Reds return home after a 2-4 road trip and had a day off on Thursday. The Reds are 2-0 this season after losing two in a row. The Reds have a +19 run differential while the Indians are +11 so far this season. Light play on the home team.

3*St. Louis Cardinals -124 (Anderson/De Leon)

The Cardinals will face a left-handed starter for the second straight game and Anderson has struggled in day games over the past three seasons. Milwaukee scored 9 runs against the Red Birds yesterday so lets take the home team to bounce back on Sunday. 

4*Atlanta Braves -124  (Wheeler/Morton)

Zack Wheeler will face the Braves for the second time in less than a week. This time, the outing will take place at Truist Park. Last Saturday, Wheeler had two hits and two RBIs as he allowed just one hit and struck out 10 across seven innings in the Phillies' 4-0 victory at Citizens Bank Park. Charlie Morton pitched well in that game giving up two earned runs. It's very difficult for a pitcher to defeat the same team twice in less than a week. I also like fading MLB teams that scored 8 or more runs and than have to play on the road. Take the Braves! 

3*LA Angles +104  (Giolito/Bundy)

If Ohtani can stay healthy, I believe the Angles can win 87+ games this season. This guy can jack 30+ dingers and win 15+ as a starter. There are some wise guys betting him as a sleeper AL MVP candidate. Lucas Giolito has been great, but not in the month of April. In 2018, his ERA was 8.69 and in 2019 his ERA was 6.75 in this opening month. The Angels are 22-6 in the past 28 meetings in Los Angeles. There will be roughly 10,000 fans in attendance. Dylan Bundy looks to be the real deal after a fantastic spring training. His counting stats have been improving year by year. Lets take a shot with the home underdog!

5*New York Yankees -119 (Morton/Tanaka)

M. Tanaka allowed six earned runs to the Indians in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series after never previously allowing more than three earned runs in any of his first eight career postseason starts. He's been solid off a team loss and the Yankees managed just 5 hits yesterday. C. Morton hasn't thrown a pitch in nearly two weeks. I like the Yankees in this one!

10*Cleveland Indians -113 (Woodruff/Civale)

The Indians two thru four hitters went a combined 0-12 in last night's 7-1 loss to the Brewers. Milwaukee is 6-12 after a win this season. I like the Indians to bounce back in a big way.

4*New York Mets -125 (Arrieta/Porcello)

4*Milwaukee Brewers -131  (Houser/Kuhl)

Adrian Houser returns to the scene of his season debut, where he endured a rain delay of nearly two hours in the middle of an effective five-inning stint on July 27. The Brewers are 3-1 when he starts. Take the Brew crew!

4*Oakland A's -109 (Bassitt/Gallen)

4*Colorado Rockies -121 (Weaver/Senzatela)

3*Colorado Rockies -103  (Richards/Gray)

In his 10-year career, mostly with the Angels, Richards has never pitched at Coors Field. He was sharp in his first outing, using two dominant breaking pitches to hold Arizona scoreless over five. Those breaking balls won't be as sharp at altitude in Colorado. Take the Rockies!

3*Cleveland Indians +108 (Giolito/Plesac)