2*Kansas City Chiefs +2

The Kansas City Chiefs have played the most demanding strength of schedule this season, while the 49ers ranked 12th. Kansas City is ranked fifth in third-down defense, eighth in red zone defense, and sixth in special teams DVOA. Conversely, San Francisco is ranked 27th in third-down defense, 14th in red zone defense, and 25th in special teams. Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career and should feast against the 49ers zone defense. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo are difficult to conquer with extra preparation time. Kansas City is 4-0 at Allegiant Stadium and should feel right at home. The Chiefs will win back-to-back Super Bowls for the first time since New England accomplished the feat in 2003-04.

Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions (-120)

Patrick Mahomes has zero turnover-worthy plays in his last four games. Throughout his career, he has only thrown seven interceptions in 17 postseason games and has not thrown any interceptions in his previous six games. The defense is performing exceptionally well, and Patrick understands he does not need to make risky throws.

Longest FG Over 47.5 yards (-125)

Both kickers possess strong legs, and Allegiant Stadium's altitude of 2,190 feet and indoor setting make it conducive to kicks over 50 yards. 

Travis Kelce Over 69.5 receiving yards (-130)

Travis has exceeded this number in all three playoff games, averaging 87.3 yards. Kelce has been performing exceptionally well, averaging over 90 receiving yards with extra preparation time. Kelce will have a lot of success against the 49ers zone defense. This number keeps climbing and would take it up to 79.5. According to my model, his predicted performance is 89.5 yards.

3*Kansas City Chiefs +3

In December, the Buffalo Bills had two weeks to prepare when they defeated the Chiefs 20-17 as 1-point road dogs. Also, the Chiefs were without their top two linebackers. This time, the Chiefs will have the rest advantage (two days), and the Bills are dealing with numerous injuries, especially on defense. I think it’s a tall task for backups to contain Patrick Mahomes and company this time of year. The Chiefs own the better DVOA defense (#7 vs. #12) and special teams (#6 vs. #15). Finally, Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, winning seven of those games outright. I like the road dog in this spot!

4*Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

The Miami Dolphins are different from the team we saw earlier in the season as they deal with multiple injuries, especially on defense. Speaking of defense, the Dolphins were on the field for 77 plays and will be playing on a short week. The Kansas City Chiefs are well-rested and will have a massive advantage of playing in freezing weather at home. The Chiefs are ranked 10th in third-down defense and 8th in red-zone defense, while Miami is ranked 20th on third-down defense and 28th in defending the red zone. The Chiefs rank 8th in opponent passer rating, while the Dolphins rank 24th. Kansas City ranks 6th in special teams DVOA, while Miami is ranked 22nd. I will swallow 3.5 points!

10*Tennessee Titans +5.5

The Tennessee Titans were eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Jaguars in week 18 last season. They have dropped eight straight division games from 2022, including three against Jacksonville. The Jags had lost four straight before defeating the Carolina Panthers 26-0 last week. We are getting two extra points of value. Houston recorded six sacks against the Titans last week, but Jacksonville is ranked 27th in sack rate. The Jags committed just one penalty last week, and I expect a negative regression. The Jaguars own a +0.66 net yards per play on the road, while Tennessee owns a +0.62 net yards at home. Mike Vrabel is 24-12-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 or more points. Revenge is sweet!

2*Minnesota Vikings ML (-109)

The Packers will be playing their first back-to-back road games in over two months, and this will be their third road game in 20 days. They are ranked 24th in yards per play on defense (5.5), while Minnesota is ranked ninth (5.0). Green Bay ranks 26th in yards allowed per rush (4.5), while Minnesota is coming off a game where they rushed for only 17 yards. Jaren Hall played the final 11 snaps of the Vikings' win over the Packers after Cousins was injured and started the following week against the Falcons, but left that game after just 11 snaps when he sustained a concussion. Minnesota is ranked fifth in DVOA defense, while GB is ranked 30th. Give me the home team in this spot!

4*Missouri (+100)

It has been reported that some of the key starters of the Ohio State Buckeyes will not be playing in the upcoming bowl game. Moreover, the players who are playing don't seem to be enthusiastic about it. On the other hand, Missouri is highly motivated to defeat a Big Ten program in a bowl game. They lost the Gasparilla Bowl last year and are determined to show out. The team has improved significantly since last year and is expected to put up a great fight. This line should close much higher!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

Texas A&M will be without 11 players due to injuries, opt-outs, and the transfer portal. Head coach Jimbo Fisher is out, and former Duke head coach Mike Elko will take over starting next season. The Aggies went 1-5 straight-up and 1-4-1 against the spread vs fellow bowl teams, while the Cowboys went 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS this season. Texas A&M went 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS vs. winning teams, while Oklahoma State went 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS vs. winning teams. QB Alan Bowman and RB Ollie Gordon II (Doak Walker award winner) should have a field day against a defense missing several key starters. I love Mike Gundy in games when his team is an underdog (11-6 ATS in the last three seasons).

3*Atlanta Falcons +105 (ML)

The Colts' previous six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 24-46. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth most points (343), while the Falcons have allowed 278. Atlanta owns a +0.83 net yards per play at home, while the Colts have a -0.15 net yards per play in road tilts. I like the QB switch to Taylor Heinicke in this spot. The Falcons are ranked 3rd in third-down defense and second (tied) in red zone defense. That's a great combo against a QB (Gardner Minshew) prone to turnovers (13). It's the third road game in four weeks for Indy. Atlanta's previous three losses are by a total of eight points. The Falcons are 5-1 in their final home game of late.

4*Northern Illinois +1

Northern Illinois has dropped seven straight bowl games and should be super motivated to win this game. Arkansas State played a slightly tougher schedule, but ignoring these stats is hard. The Red Wolves own a minus- 3.4 point differential and minus- 70-yard differential per game, while the Huskies are plus- 4.1 and- plus- 48, respectively. Arkansas State went 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS while getting outgained (-155 YPG) in seven of the eight games against fellow bowl teams. Northern Illinois went 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS while outgaining (+7) three of four matchups. Arkansas State is ranked 127th (dead last), while Northern Illinois is ranked 23rd in total defense of all the bowl teams. Defense travels well. I love the underdog!

3*Buffalo Bills -2

The Dallas Cowboys will be playing their first road game since November 19th. They are coming off a colossal division revenge victory last Sunday, where they benefited from three Eagles turnovers and ten penalties for 95 yards. Speaking of those pesky yellow flags, Dallas is ranked 32nd in penalties per game (7.5). Dallas owns net yards per play of +0.22 on the road, while Buffalo has a +1.37 net yards per play at home. The Cowboys haven’t played any game this season when the kickoff temperature is below 50 degrees. We have a 7-6 team favored over a 10-3 team. The odds-makers want you to bet on Dallas. Not so fast. Buffalo is the more desperate team and can win in this spot.

4*Chicago Bears +3.5

The Chicago Bears have been performing exceptionally well recently and have climbed up my power rankings. They have won three out of their last four games, and their defense looks impressive since they traded for edge rusher Montez Sweat. Joe Flacco had one of his best passing games in a while, but his QBR is still low at 41.5, and his lack of mobility could prove problematic, especially since offensive tackle Dawand Jones is out for the season. The Bears are ranked seventh in third-down conversion percentage, while the Browns rank 30th or 27th with Flacco playing. Despite allowing 140 yards last week, the Bears rank second in rushing yards against. Grab the 3.5 points!

3*Miami (OH) +6.5

The Miami Red Hawks have a good chance of covering the point spread with their superior defense and special teams. They have one of the best kickers in the country, Graham Nicholson, who was named first-team All-MAC. A significant factor to consider is the weather forecast, which shows a 100% chance of rain (over 1 inch) and winds of 15-35 MPH. This weather condition will negatively affect App State's passing attack and positively impact the Red Hawks running game. Miami (OH) ranks 36th against the run, while App State ranks 110th in rushing yards allowed. It is worth noting that the underdog is 4-0 ATS last four Cure Bowls, and Miami (OH) has a 6-1 ATS record in all bowl games since 1993. 

4*Chicago Bears +3.5

The Detroit Lions will be playing their second straight road game against a team with revenge coming off its BYE week. Detroit won the first meeting while outgaining the Bears by just four yards. The Lions held Jared Goff to a season-low 68.3 passer rating in perfect weather conditions. This game will be the opposite, with 50% snow showers and 15-25 MPH winds. Jared Goff has a QB rating of 93.9 outdoors and 88.0 on the natural grass compared to 101.5 indoors and 104.1 on turf. The Bears have been improving on both sides of the ball, while the Lions are slipping a bit thanks to multiple injuries at critical spots. Grab the 3.5 points!

4*San Francisco 49ers -1

The Philadelphia Eagles defense had a tough game on Sunday as they were on the field for 92 plays in their overtime victory. Facing a physical group like San Francisco, seeking revenge after losing to Philly in the NFC Championship, will be challenging. The 49ers have ten days of rest and preparation after playing on Thanksgiving, which gives them an advantage. They have better net yards per play, third-down defense, red-zone defense, opponent passer rating, and offensive and defensive DVOA. It makes sense that they are the favorites in this game. Meanwhile, the Eagles are scheduled to play the Dallas Cowboys next week, and this game might prove to be a classic schedule loss for them. This spot screams San Francisco!

5*Alabama +6

Although the Georgia Bulldogs have a better offense and defense, the Alabama Crimson Tide has a great chance to keep this within the number. Alabama has faced more formidable teams, and a win in this game is crucial for them to make the playoff bracket. My model shows that the Bulldogs will win by five points, so I am happy to take the extra point and bet on Alabama with the 6-point spread.

5*Indianapolis Colts -2

The Buccaneers have played six straight games (Week Five Bye) without rest and are coming off a physical matchup against San Francisco. I love playing on teams off their BYE with an offensive-minded head coach (Shane Steichen). Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in yards per play (4.9) and 27th in yards per play against (5.7). Indianapolis ranks 16th in yards per play (5.4) and 15th in yards per play against (5.2). Also, Tampa Bay ranks 30th in third-down defense, while the Colts rank 14th. Tampa Bay will have to rely on the pass. Not good. The Colts rank 8th in opponent passer rating, while the Bucks rank 26th. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in penalties, while the Colts rank 16th. This line should be minus 3!

10*Jacksonville State -2

The New Mexico State Aggies pulled off a major upset by defeating the Auburn Tigers as 24.5-point road underdogs last week. Win or lose, they have already qualified for the Conference USA Championship game next week. As a result, they may decide to rest some of their key players. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks have a solid rushing attack, averaging 249 yards per game. They will be going against a team that ranks 99th in success rate against the run. The Gamecocks have a strong defense, ranked 18th in yards per play against (4.7), while New Mexico State is ranked 74th (5.6). This game is crucial for Jacksonville State as they are not eligible to play in the postseason, making this their de facto bowl game.

4*TCU +10.5

The Horned Frogs feel very proud after their appearance in last year's championship game. They must pull off an upset against the Sooners to qualify for a bowl game. TCU has a positive yard differential and a solid special teams unit. Oklahoma has played a slightly more demanding schedule and is dealing with some injuries ahead of this game. Grab the points!

5*LA Rams +1

The Seattle Seahawks are tied for the NFC West's top spot. In their next four games, they will play against San Francisco twice, as well as Dallas and Philadelphia. Seattle has a negative point differential while playing the 29th most demanding schedule. On the other hand, the Rams are coming off their Bye week and are highly motivated after losing three consecutive games straight up and against the spread while playing the eighth-hardest schedule. The team will be the healthiest it's been since week one. The Rams rank 10th in third-down conversion percentage, while Seattle ranks 30th in third-down defense. Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll, having won four of the past six meetings. More of the same!

4*Arizona Cardinals +5

The Houston Texans have an impressive 5-0 record when taking points, but they have yet to cover a spread in any of their three games where they were favored. Last Sunday, Kyler Murray returned to the field and significantly impacted the Cardinals' performance. His ability to read defenses and extend drives with his legs is off the charts. The Texans' listed 18 players on Wednesday’s injury report including several key starters. The Texans have allowed the 31st most fantasy points against opposing tight ends which could lead to a big game for emerging tight end Trey McBride. Houston has a massive division game against Jacksonville on deck. Also, I like fading teams & players after record setting performances. 

4*Oregon State -2

Last year's game between Oregon State and Washington was intense. Oregon State initially took the lead, but Washington made a comeback and won the game with a field goal in the last eight seconds. QB Michael Penix Jr. had to complete 52 passes to accumulate 298 yards due to Oregon State's defense. Washington's defense is struggling, ranking 122nd against the pass and 67th in yards per play. In contrast, Oregon State is a top-20 scoring offense and ranks 16th in yards per play. QB DJ Uiagalelei brings big-game experience from his time at Clemson. Rain is expected during the game, which should benefit the Beavers, who own the better offensive and defensive lines. I like the home team!

4*Detroit Lions -130 (money line)

The LA Chargers take a significant step up in class after defeating the Bears and Jets in prime time over the past two weeks. Detroit owns a plus-0.59 net yards per play, whereas the Chargers are minus-0.30 this season. The Lions are ranked fourth in total DVOA and fifth in defensive DVOA, whereas the Chargers are ranked 12th in total DVOA and 23rd in defensive DVOA. Also, the Chargers are ranked 24th in opponent passer rating, while the Lions are ranked 11th this season. David Montgomery returns to the Lions’ backfield, which gives them a boost in the red zone. Huge rest and preparation advantage as the Chargers played on MNF while the Lions are off a BYE week.

5*Wake Forrest +2.5

Last week, NC State clinched bowl eligibility against Miami, even though they were outgained for the second straight game after upsetting Clemson. Wake Forest and NC State recently played at Duke, and the turnover margin was neutral in both matchups. Wake Forest lost by only three points despite outgaining the Blue Devils 400-267. On the other hand, the Wolfpack lost by 21 points despite outgaining Duke just 305-301. Wake Forest has won four out of six games this season on turf, while NC State will be playing its first game on turf in 2023. The Wolfpack are 3-10 against the spread on the road, including 0-3 this season. Wake Forest has won and covered their last home game in three straight seasons. 

4*Carolina Panthers +3 (-115)

Frank Reich's revenge game against the team that released him last season. Carolina's Bryce Young played very well, with a season-best 103.6 passer rating and an average of 7.6 yards per attempt in defeating Houston on a field goal as time expired. Young is expected to continue playing well against the Colts’ defense, which ranks 25th in passing yards allowed (247.3) and allows the most points per game in the NFL (28.6). The Carolina Panthers have an underrated defense, ranking eighth in third-down defense. With Thomas Brown now calling the plays, Carolina should continue improving in their second consecutive home game following another week of practice. This will be the Colts’ second game outdoors in over a month and ninth straight without a break.

4*Kansas State +4

Redshirt freshman quarterback Maalik Murphy made his first career start in place of the injured Quinn Ewers and passed for 170 yards and two touchdowns in defeating BYU 35-6. However, Murphy also had one interception and lost a fumble. He now takes a significant step up in class as Kansas State is one of six Power Five teams that rank in the top 15 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Currently, the Wildcats are ranked 13th in scoring (37.4) and 14th in points allowed (15.9) as they look to snap a six-game losing skid in this series. Kansas State is ranked ninth (55%) in third-down efficiency, while Texas is ranked 83rd (40%). An outright upset wouldn’t shock me. Grab the points!

4*Carolina Panthers +3

I've been waiting to bet on the Carolina Panthers without Frank Reich's play-calling. Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown has taken the reins, and the Houston Texans have no idea what the Panthers' offensive will look like. The Texans have a negative yard differential (outgained 430-297 in defeating New Orleans before their bye week), while the Panthers are a sneaky good team despite their 0-6 record. Carolina has a solid third-down defense, ranking fourth in the league, and an efficient red zone offense, ranking tenth. On the other hand, the Texans are struggling in third-down defense, ranking 27th, and opponent passer rating, ranking 20th. Moreover, betting on winless home underdogs after their bye week has been very profitable.

4*Green Bay Packers +1

The Minnesota Vikings have won and covered two in a row and will now travel to Green Bay, who has dropped three in a row straight-up and against the spread. The Vikings will play this division game on short rest after playing the 49ers on MNF. Seems like a very tough spot. The Packers defeated the Vikings 41-17 without CB Jaire Alexander in a cold weather game in Green Bay last season. He practiced on Wednesday and should be available for this cold weather (40 degrees) matchup. Minnesota is ranked 26th in red zone defense, 25th in third-down defense, and 23rd in red zone offense. Green Bay is ranked seventh in red zone defense, ninth in third-down defense, and eighth in red zone offense.

4*Cincinnati U +7.5

Despite only two wins, the Cincinnati Bearcats have outperformed Oklahoma State in offense and defense. They have an average of 445 yards compared to Oklahoma State's 405 yards in offense and 345 yards versus Oklahoma State's 404 yards in defense. Oklahoma State has won three consecutive games as underdogs, but will dress up as the favorite in their homecoming game. However, the Cowboys have a crucial game against Oklahoma next week, which could affect their performance. This presents an excellent opportunity for the visiting team to end their losing streak against the spread. I like the road dog!

5*Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105)

The Lions coaching staff canceled practice on Wednesday, opting for a walkthrough to rest their injured roster after six weeks of physical football. The Lions have won and covered four straight, and this is the perfect spot to sell high. Baltimore’s defense was on the field for only 46 plays in London. The Ravens are ranked third in opponent passer rating and second in red-zone defense. The Lions struggled to contain both mobile quarterbacks they faced this season: Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes. The home team should be more accustomed to the 10-20 MPH winds in this matchup. Lastly, the Lions will host a Monday Night Football game next week for the first time since 2018.

10*Minnesota U +4.5

Iowa has won their last three games and scored 61 points while allowing only 36 points. However, they were outgained in all three games by 1,016 to 750, which is a cause for concern. This will be their eighth consecutive game without rest, and they might already be thinking about their upcoming BYE week. Meanwhile, Minnesota is seeking revenge after their 52-10 loss and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite being outgained 399-280. I am all over the road dog, especially with such a low total.

3*New England Patriots +3

New England is a professional football team, and they know that being outscored 72-3 in their last two games is unacceptable. I believe the Patriots will have success running the ball against a defense ranked 23rd against the run. Las Vegas will have one less day to prepare for the game. This doesn't bode well, especially since head coach Josh McDaniels has a career record of 19-30, including 7-12 after a win. The Patriots had a franchise-low 3rd down conversion rate of 7.14% against the Saints and failed to enter the red zone. NE owns the better 3rd down defense and has played a much tougher schedule. Belichick is 23-14 straight-up after losing two or more consecutive games, including 6-0 over the last three seasons.

5*Indianapolis Colts +4.5

This is a rematch from week one, where the Jaguars won by 10, although the final score was misleading. Both teams are closely matched, with the Colts owning a net yards per play of -0.2 and Jacksonville holding -0.6 this season. The Colts have a solid offensive line, ranked fourth, while Jacksonville is ranked 27th in sack percentage. It's a tough spot for the home team after playing back-to-back games in London. The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, so they should be highly motivated to win this game. The weather will be mild (mid 70s) with winds 10-15 MPH. Take the points in this overlay! 

3*Auburn +11.5

In last year's game, Auburn had a 17-0 lead, but they allowed a fumble return touchdown and lost to LSU 21-17 despite outgaining them 438-270. LSU is a tired team, having played their seventh straight contest and fourth consecutive game against an SEC foe. The last three games were high-scoring close affairs. Auburn is fresh off a bye and confident after a close loss to Georgia two weeks ago. Although Auburn has struggled to pass the ball, LSU's young secondary has allowed an average of 283 passing yards per game. Revenge cover!

5*Cincinnati Bengals -3

Although Josh Dobbs has been better than expected, he is not a threat to the Bengals' defense, as he primarily relies on short passes and running plays. The Cardinals recently played against the 49ers, known for their physical play. This situation is not ideal. Lou Anarumo criticized the Bengals' effort after missing 12 tackles, a three-year high. The Bengals are ranked sixth (5.3) in penalties per game, while Arizona is tied for last (8.5) through week four. Cincinnati's defensive line DVOA is ranked 7th, while Arizona allows the fifth-highest pressure rate (36.5%) per PFF. Joe Burrow is 4-1 straight-up in dome games and 8-4 SU off a loss since 2021. He told the local beat writers his calf is feeling much better. The Bengals are a tremendous buy-low team in this matchup!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5

The Steelers are back home after a disappointing game and are expected to be highly motivated in this crucial rivalry. These teams have a history of playing close games, and despite being favored only twice, the Steelers have won 5 out of 6 games against the Ravens in the last three seasons. This presents an excellent opportunity for the Steelers to bounce back as underdogs. Pittsburgh will be all in with their BYE week coming up. This game will be another closely contested match, so taking the points is a wise choice.

5*Oklahoma +6.5

The line should be a tad under five points, and I must trust my numbers. It's worth noting that although Texas defeated Alabama as 7-point road underdogs, the Crimson Tide had significant quarterback issues at the time. The Sooners will be highly motivated after losing 49-0 last year, especially since their QB Dillon Gabriel missed that game. Texas has a poor record of 1-7 against the spread before their BYE week of late. It's going to be a close match, so grab the points!

5*Indianapolis Colts  PK

The Rams will be playing their third road game in four weeks, with short rest and a body clock of 10:00 AM PT. Anthony Richardson can use his running skills effectively against the Rams' linebackers, who are ranked last at PFF. The Colts are ranked fifth in sack rate, while the Rams are ranked 24th. The Colts rank significantly higher than the Rams in special teams and total defense (DVOA). With a PFF grade of 82.8, Center Ryan Kelly returns to boost the Colts' offensive line. Indianapolis has lost eight consecutive home games and should be motivated to win for their fans' enjoyment.

5*Georgia State  PK

Georgia State has been performing well this season with a net yards per play of +1.0, while Troy has a -0.1 mark. Georgia State has won and covered against three FBS foes. On the other hand, the Trojans rank No. 130 in Red Zone defense and No. 126 in turnover margin. In comparison, Georgia State averages 37 points per game and has the nation's No. 5 squad in Red Zone defense. Moreover, Troy will be playing their third game in 14 days and fifth game in 28 days, which could put them at a disadvantage. I like the home team in this spot!

5*Coastal Carolina +6.5

Coastal Carolina has a significant rest advantage in this matchup. However, they are coming off a disappointing 30-17 loss despite outgaining GA State by 14 yards and being 5-point favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles will be playing their third game in 14 days and fifth game in 28 days, which is not an ideal schedule. Grayson McCall is a phenomenal QB who can put up points against any defense. The line between the two teams is inflated, as they have similar playing styles. I like the road dog in what should be a tight game.

5*Denver Broncos +6.5

The Dolphins are in the middle of a division sandwich, having played New England last week and with Buffalo on deck. Denver is ranked No. 1 in points per drive and will be all out to avoid a 0-3 start. This line has trap written all over it as all the bets and money are coming in on Miami, yet the line hasn't moved. Jaylen Waddle is OUT for this game with a concussion. There is a 75% chance of thunderstorms, and the wet field will slow down this Miami team. I like the Broncos in this spot!

5*Clemson +2.5

In their previous game, FSU lost the time of possession battle, as their defense was on the field for 75 plays. This week, the Seminoles will be playing their second consecutive road game. The Eagles could have won despite committing 18 penalties for 131 yards. Clemson's coaching staff still remembers how FSU avoided playing them in the 2020 season. The summer line was Clemson -4 points, and we are getting good value on the home team with the better defense.

5*New England Patriots +3

The Dolphins are in a tough spot, having traveled out to the West Coast, back home, and now up North to face the Patriots. Despite their unlucky start in week 1, we can expect the Patriots' defense to be well-prepared under the leadership of Bill Belichick. In their last two games against New England, Miami only scored 20 and 21 points, respectively. Although the Dolphins won against the poorly-coached Chargers in their first game, this matchup will be different as they will be playing outdoors on field turf instead of indoor artificial turf. Fading teams in week two after scoring 30+ and allowing 30+ has been highly profitable. I like the Pats in this spot!

4*Northern Illinois +11.5

Nebraska is back home after a demanding game at high altitude. When the total is relatively low, it's a wise choice to bet on double-digit underdogs. The Huskies have a good track record of 12-6 against the spread as an underdog and 9-4 ATS on the road over the past three seasons. On the other hand, the Cornhuskers have just a 4-8 ATS record when favored over the same period. According to my model, this line should be closer to 9 points. I like the Huskies to stay within the number!

4*Mississippi State +10

This will be the Tigers’ third game in 13 days, and temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. LSU lost more players (10) to the NFL than any other team in the nation. Last year, Mississippi State allowed 21 unanswered points against LSU after leading 16-10 to begin the fourth quarter. The Rebels were 3-point road dogs and now get to play in Starkville, where they have a solid home-field advantage. LSU is 1-4 against-the-spread in their last five games as road chalk. I like the home dog!

4*Houston Texans +10

The Texans relied heavily on their first-string players in the preseason, while the Ravens did not. This is significant because Baltimore is adjusting to a new offensive scheme. Houston's defense should be better than average at the beginning of the season. Last year, the Ravens went 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS before playing the Bengals, and they have playoff revenge against Cincinnati in week two. It is advisable to bet on teams that did not make the playoffs against teams that did in week one. The Ravens are 7-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the road dog and the generous 10 points!

4*Indianapolis Colts +5.5

According to PFF, the Colts' offensive line is placed at No. 10, whereas the Jaguars are at No. 26. Betting on underdogs with a better-performing offensive line has proven to be a lucrative strategy. Furthermore, the Colts are well-acquainted with the Jaguars' offensive system. Jacksonville has yet to learn what to expect from Anthony Richardson and his team. In week one, division underdogs have a high probability of covering. A solid strategy is to play on teams in their first game that missed the playoffs against teams that made it last season. I like the Colts and the points!

4*California +6.5

The Bears have improved significantly, with 16 returning starters compared to Auburn's 12. Head Coach Justin Wilcox has a career ATS record of 36-24-1 with California. Additionally, the Bears have a good record as underdogs at 8-4 ATS and have gone 6-3 ATS in September over the past three seasons. In contrast, Auburn has struggled in September with a 3-6 ATS record over the same period. Based on my Power Ratings, this spread should be closer to 4.5 points. Furthermore, Auburn will play with a body clock time of 10:30 ET. I like the home dog in this spot!

3*Duke +13.5

Brad Powers states Duke Blue Devils are ranked 11th while Clemson is ranked 53rd. This ranking is based on Bill Conelly's returning production and experience chart from Phil Steele. Both teams have dual-threat QBs; Duke's Riley Leonard had a QBR of 73.7 on 391 passing attempts, while Cade Klubnik had a 57.1 QBR on just 100 pass attempts last season. Mike Elko improved Duke from a 3-win to a 9-win team, winning the Military Bowl 30-13 over UCF. Duke has a 10-3 ATS record at home over the past three years, while the Tigers are 1-7 ATS in September over the last three seasons. This is the first matchup between these two schools since 2018, and I'm on the home dog.

4*Toledo +9.5

The Rockets, led by head coach Jason Candle, are a strong contender to win the MAC. With 16 returning starters from their nine-win season and victory in the Boca Raton Bowl, Toledo is ranked 14th in the nation for Returning production. Their secondary is one of the best in the Group of Five. Quarterback Dequan Finn, who had a successful campaign in 2022 as a passer and runner, is returning. Illinois has lost significant production and will have to start sophomore QB Luke Altmyer, who had a low QBR of 50.7 on only 54 attempts. Additionally, Altmyer rushed for only three yards on 25 carries. This is an excellent spot to back the road dog!

3*Hawaii +17.5

The Warriors seek 53-point revenge from last season's second half meltdown. The Run and Shoot is fully installed, with head coach Timmy Chang calling the plays and QB Braden Schrager better suited within it. Hawaii went 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Vanderbilt's stadium has undergone renovations and now has a capacity of 28,500, down from 40,000+. They possess one of the worst home-field advantages (1.75) and only won five games last year, with a luck ranking of No. 11 in the nation. The Commodores rank last in SEC recruiting for the fourth time in five years and are only 3-10 ATS as home favorites over the past three seasons. Vanderbilt will miss their most promising offensive lineman due to an injury sustained in the off-season. I like the road dog in this spot!

4*Kansas City Chiefs +2

The Chiefs played the 9th toughest schedule, while the Eagles played the 29th easiest schedule. Philadelphia steps up in class after beating the over-rated Giants, and the 49ers who had to use their fourth string QB, and Brock Purdy who couldn't throw the ball downfield. Jalen Hurts yards per attempt has been declining in his past four games (8.0, 6.0, 5.9, 4.0). The Chiefs' offensive line is ranked No. 5 in sack rate (4.8%), while the Eagles are ranked No. 19 (7.7%) this season. Look for Kansas City to play a lot of up-tempo which should negate the Eagles' pass rush. I can't pass up Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes with two weeks to prepare, knowing they are 18-6-1 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. Kansas City has played 32 straight games they either won outright or lost by four points or less. Take the Chiefs plus the points.

5*Buffalo Bills -4.5

The Bengals have major offensive line issues (down three starters) and will now face a brilliant defensive head coach in Sean McDermont. The Bengals went 9-8 in the stats, while Buffalo went 13-4 this season. The Bengals were out-gained in six of seven games against fellow playoff teams. Buffalo owns a +1.1 net yards per play, while Cincinnati is just +0.1 this season. Buffalo owns a +169 point differential, while the Bengals are +96 this season. Josh Allen's QBR is 71.2. Joe Burrow's QBR is 58.5, and that was behind a healthier offensive line. Buffalo owns the better special teams and red-zone stats. Light snow is expected and that favors the home team. Take the Bills! 

4*Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

I think the Buccaneers match-up quite well against the Cowboys. Tampa Bay defeated a much healthier Dallas team in week one. The Cowboys have been out-gained in three of their past four games. The Cowboys are 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing on a grass field this season. Tampa Bay's offensive line is ranked No. 1 in QB sacks allowed. They should be able to run on Dallas from a spread formation as well. Take the three points before this line drops!

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

The Jaguars own a +0.2 net yards per play, while the Chargers are -0.6 this season. Tough travel spot for the road team after playing in Denver last Sunday and now travel to Florida with one less day to prepare. The Chargers went 1-5 SU against fellow playoff teams this season. Mike Williams is OUT and he's been huge on third down and in the red-zone. Joey Bosa will play, but is not 100% healthy. Doug Pederson has won multiple playoff games (including a Super Bowl) while Brandon Staley is making his postseason debut. Take the home dog!

10*Penn State +2.5

Penn State dropped their Bowl game last season, 24-10 against Arkansas in the Outback Bowl. The Razorbacks ran for 361 yards on 58 carries. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 12 against the run, which should bode well against the Utes' offense. Utah standout CB Clark Phillips lll has decided to skip this Rose Bowl to prepare for the NFL draft process. Penn State owns the better defensive line (No. 7 vs. No. 58), special teams (No. 23 vs. No. 64) and overall defense (No. 5 vs. No. 17) at Football Outsiders. Utah went 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS when the line was 7 or less this season. Penn State is 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on a grass field, while Utah is just 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS on that same surface. Penn State has played a tougher schedule (No. 10 vs. No. 21) and own better metrics against fellow bowlers, especially on defense. Take the underdog!

3*Houston Texans +5

The Texans should be motivated to win their final home game of the season as they are 0-6-1 in Houston. It would be fitting for it to happen on the first day of the new year. They have a good chance to keep this one close. Houston is ranked No. 8 in opponent passer rating, No. 2 in special teams, and No. 20 in overall defense. Jacksonville is ranked No. 20 in opponent passer rating, No. 29 in third-down defense, and No. 27 in overall defense at Football Outsiders. Trevor Lawrence did not practice on Wednesday with a toe injury. He's going to play, but I would expect the Jags to be cautious. The Jaguars have their biggest game of the season for the division title next week. Houston is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the hungry host!

4*Coastal Carolina +8.5

Coastal Carolina owns the better offensive line (No. 87 vs. No. 102) and defensive line (No. 19 vs. No. 37 at Football Outsiders. Star QB Grayson McCall will start for the Chanticleers who is the only player to earn Sun Belt conference player of the year three times. He's heading for the transfer portal after this game. Coastal Carolina owns better metrics against fellow bowlers. The Chanticleers are 9-3 SU on field turf, while East Carolina is 0-2 SU this season. Take the points in what should be a one-score game!

3*New England Patriots +3 (+100)

New England should be super focused knowing they must win out to have any chance at reaching the playoffs. The Patriots offense should be able to move the ball against a "nicked" up Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is coming off a phony win against Tampa Bay as they were out-gained 396-237 and benefited from four Tampa Bay turnovers. New England ranks No. 2 in pressure rate, while the Bengals are ranked No. 30 in pressure rate allowed. The Bengals are ranked No. 28 in PFF pass blocking grade. The Patriots own a +0.55 net yards per play, while Cincinnati is +0.31. The Bengals have a big game against Buffalo next week on MNF. Take the hungry host getting three points (even money)!

4*Air Force +4

The Falcons own the better offensive line (No. 5 vs. No. 44), defensive line (No. 20 vs. No. 100) and special teams (No. 57 vs. No. 115) at Football Outsiders. It's going to be very windy (20-30 MPH) and this benefits the Falcons' run-heavy attack. Air Force owns the No. 1 defense in yards allowed and No. 2 defense in points allowed. Take the Falcons plus the points!

4*Liberty +5

The Flames should be super focused after dropping their last three games by a combined -87.5 ATS margin. Liberty owns the better offensive line (No. 70 vs. No. 73), defensive line (No. 10 vs. No. 24), special teams (No. 37 vs. No. 120), and total defense (No. 44 vs. No. 61) at Football Outsiders. Liberty has superior metrics against fellow bowlers, and the Flames' defense leads the nation in tackles for a loss (109). Liberty is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS as underdogs, while the Rockets are 2-7 ATS vs. winning teams of late. Take Liberty plus the generous five points!

5*Eastern Michigan +4.5

The Eagles get to practice on the same exact surface (field turf) and in extreme cold weather. San Jose has no such advantage. Eastern Michigan defeated San Jose State 30-27 as 17-point underdogs in the California Bowl in 1987 for its lone bowl victory. I love playing on teams that lost their bowl game by 30+ in the previous year. Both teams played Western Michigan and won with very similar stats. The Eagles are 4-0-1 ATS on field turf, while the Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six tries. Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS as an underdog, while San Jose State is 3-6 ATS as chalk. The Eagles are 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS when playing on Tuesday, while the Spartans have never played on that day of the week. Eastern Michigan is ranked No. 25 in special teams, while San Jose State is ranked dead last (131) at Football Outsiders. Take the points before it drops!

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +5

The Jaguars return home with a lot of confidence after beating the Titans last week. Doug Pederson was with the Eagles when his defense held Dak Prescott and company to just 172 passing yards. Dallas will be without right tackle Terrance Steele, who has allowed just one sack in 818 snaps this season. The Cowboys have struggled against mobile QB's, and they are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS on a grass field this season. This slows down their defense who is also "nicked" up in the secondary. Trevor Lawrence has a higher QBR (56.6) than Dak Prescott (52.9). I like the home team plus the points!

3*New York Giants +2.5

This will be the Commanders' 13th straight game without a week of rest. The Giants have extra time to prepare and get healthy after playing on Thanksgiving. Washington defeated the Giants twice last season. I love backing first-year head coaches (as underdogs) in double revenge division games. The Giants are ranked No. 5 in red-zone defense and No. 10 in opponent passer rating. Daniel Jones QBR is 58.1, while Taylor Heinicke has a QBR of 46.9 this season. I like the home team plus the points in this spot!

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +4

The Jags own the better offensive line and defensive line at Football Outsiders. Jacksonville has seen Lamar Jackson (2020) and their run defense matches-up great against Baltimore. The Ravens will be without stud offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley. I like the Jags head coach with two weeks to prepare. I heard they had some really good meetings about what is working and vice versa. Take the points!

10*Duke Blue Devils +3.5

Wake Forest has punished Duke the last three seasons by a combined score of 143-41. This spread is the lowest since 2015, when Duke was 3.5-point road favorites and won 27-21. First-year head coach Mike Elko was the defensive coordinator at Wake Forrest from 2014-2016. Duke owns the better offensive line (No. 15 vs. No. 80) and special teams (No. 30 vs. No. 82) at Football Outsiders. The Blue Devils own the better yards against, net yards per play, and scoring defense. Duke also owns the better metrics against common opponents (ACC foes) this season. Wake Forrest is just 1-1 straight-up and 1-1 against-the-spread on a grass field this season. Duke is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS on the same surface this season. The Demon Deacons accumulated 543 total yards last week and now hit the road against a highly motivated squad. Play Duke plus the points!

3*New England Patriots -3

The Patriots defeated the Jets on the road two weeks ago and this was the same exact spread. Zach Wilson threw for 355 yards and Bill Belichick has two weeks to prepare for a New England team ranked No. 5 in opponent passer rating. New England is 0-2 straight-up and 0-2 against-the-spread after their BYE week of late. Extra motivation for the home team. The Jets are 4-0 SU on the road this season. I'm not buying it. Road dogs off a BYE have not performed well this season. Take the Pats before this line starts to climb!

5*Baylor +2.5

TCU is coming off two straight interstate rival wins and the pressure is mounting to stay undefeated. Baylor was clearly looking ahead to this match-up after scoring just 3 points at home last week. Baylor is 11-4 against-the-spread as underdogs in their last 15 games and 13-5 ATS vs. winning teams the past three seasons. The Bears are undervalued in this spot so lets take the points!

3*Cleveland Browns +4

The Dolphins have played nine straight games without any rest. Their defense could be tiring after chasing Justin Fields all over the field last week. The Browns own the better offensive line (No. 7 vs. No. 22) and special teams (No. 22 vs. No. 32). Cleveland owns a net yards per play of +0.22, while the Dolphins are +0.24 this season. Miami is ranked No. 26 in sack rate, while Cleveland ranks No. 14 this season. The Browns are ranked No. 16 in third-down defense, while Miami is ranked No. 27 this season. Cleveland gets stud cornerback Denzel Ward back. I like the Browns with two weeks to prepare in this spot!

The Lions defeated the Packers 15-9 last week, despite getting out-gained 389-254. Detroit finished with a +2 turnover differential and took advantage of eight Packers injured during the game. The Bears' defense was on the field for just 53 plays against the Dolphins and should be relatively fresh. The Lions will be playing their first game on a grass field this season and Jared Goff has struggled in cold weather (below 40) in his career. The Bears own a +0.14 net yards per play at home, while Detroit owns a -0.58 net yards per play on the road. Chicago is ranked No. 10 in opponent passer rating, while the Lions are ranked No. 29 this season. Take the Bears at this great price! 

5*Wake Forrest -3.5

Wake Forrest owns the better defensive line (No. 50 vs. No. 123) and overall defense (No. 50 vs. No. 118) at Football Outsiders. The Demon Deacons have revenge on their minds after blowing a big lead last season (58-55), despite out-gaining the Tar Heels 615-546. Wake Forrest is ranked 17 spots higher in DVOA and 16 spots higher in strength of schedule. North Carolina will be playing its third set of back-to-back road games. The Tar Heels are 3-12 against-the-spread off a win vs. a conference rival of late. Wake Forrest is 13-2 straight-up and 12-3 ATS at home over the past three seasons. Take the hungry host!

3*Washington Commanders +4

The Vikings allow more yards per game (383) than they gain (345) so far this season. Washington brings in the better defense, allowing 334 yards per game. The Commanders are ranked No. 8 in red-zone defense, while the Vikings are ranked No. 32 thru week seven. Washington is ranked No. 4 in the fewest fantasy points allowed vs. tight ends. The Commanders are ranked No. 8 in special teams, while Minnesota is ranked No. 25 this season. The Vikings six wins have come against teams with a combined 15-24 record. Seems like a tough spot for the road team with the Buffalo Bills on deck. Take the home dog!

5*Georgia Southern +4

South Alabama will be playing its fourth game in 21 days. That seems like a tough spot considering Georgia Southern has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. The Eagles own the better offensive line (No. 83 vs. No. 101). They are 11-3 against-the-spread vs. winning teams over the past three seasons. The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival and 1-4 ATS as road chalk. Take the home team plus the points!

3*New Orleans Saints +2

New Orleans has three extra days to get healthy and prepare for head coach Dennis Allen's former team, where he coached from 2012-2014. Marshawn Lattimore is expected to return from his injury. The Saints have out-gained five of their seven opponents, while the Raiders are just 3-3 in the stats. Las Vegas is ranked No. 27 in third-down defense and No. 30 in red-zone defense. The Saints are ranked No. 4 in third-down defense and No. 13 in red-zone defense. I like the fact Las Vegas won't know which QB will start for the Saints until later this week, and Las Vegas is ranked No. 32 in opponent passer rating. Las Vegas will be playing this game at 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock), and they are just 9-21 against-the-spread vs. the NFC of late. Take the hungry host plus the points! 

4*Baylor +2.5

Baylor owns the better offensive line (No. 26 vs. No. 92) and defensive line (No. 24 vs. No. 35) at Football Outsiders. The Bears own a +1.3 net yards per play differential, while Texas Tech is +0.5 this season. Baylor is ranked No. 66 (45.1%) in third-down efficiency, while Texas Tech is ranked No. 182 (36.2%). The Red Raiders are 0-6 straight-up off a win vs. a conference rival and 0-5-1 against-the-spread after scoring 40+ points. Baylor is 9-4 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons. Texas Tech has a big revenge game @ TCU next week. Take the road dog!

4*Kentucky +12.5

Kentucky has the better special teams (No. 11 vs. No. 43) and overall defense (No. 14 vs. 42) at Football Outsiders. The Wildcats have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Last season, Tennessee defeated Kentucky 45-42 despite getting out-gained 612-461. The Vols are 8-17 against-the-spread after scoring 40+ points of late. They also have a big game against Georgia next week. Take the road team plus the points!

3*Washington Commanders +5.5

The Commanders own the better defensive line (No. 12 vs. No. 32), special teams (No. 5 vs. No. 30) and overall defense (No. 11 vs. No. 24) at Football Outsiders. I like the QB switch for the home team. Green Bay is dealing with numerous injuries on their offensive line. This line seems inflated to me by at least 1.5 points. I like Washington in this spot!

4*UTEP +4.5

UTEP owns the better offensive line, defensive line, and special teams at Football Outsiders. The Miners have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Last season, FAU defeated UTEP 28-25, despite getting out-gained 438-280. UTEP is 6-1 against-the-spread after their BYE week and 7-2 ATS vs. losing teams of late. FAU is 2-9 straight-up and 3-8 ATS in games played on turf, including 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS this season. Take the hungry host!

5*Wisconsin -2

This will be the Boilermakers third road game in four weeks. They accumulated over 600 total yards in last week's victory. Teams in this role have been a great play to fade in their next game. Wisconsin brings in the better net yards per play (+0.5 vs. -0.4), better offensive line, (No. 67 vs. No. 97) and overall defense at Football Outsiders. Purdue is 3-8 against-the-spread vs. losing teams of late. Take the home team to get back to .500 before their BYE week.

4*New England Patriots +3

The Patriots own the better offensive line, defensive line, special teams, and overall defense at Football Outsiders. Bill Belichick is very familiar with Jacoby Brissett and his skill set. The Browns play the Ravens next week. I like the road dog plus the points! 

5*Oklahoma State +4

Money is coming in on TCU based on last year's blowout loss to these Cowboys. I don't think anything has changed. Oklahoma State should be able to pile up yards on the ground. TCU is ranked No. 71 in defensive line DVOA, while the Cowboys are ranked No. 4 this season. The Cowboys are ranked 18 spots higher in overall defense and will gladly take four points in this spot.

3*Baltimore Ravens -3

The Bengals went 2-0 vs. the Ravens last year scoring 41 points in both blowouts. Lamar Jackson was injured in the first game and then missed the rematch two months later. The Ravens could easily be 4-0, and this seems like a nice bounce back spot playing with revenge off a loss. Lamar Jackson's QBR is 72.4, while Joe Burrow's QBR is 49.4 through week four. The Ravens are 8-2 straight-up after committing 9 or more penalties in defeat. Well-coached team. Lets swallow the FG and take the Ravens! 

4*Cleveland Browns +3

The Browns return home off a loss at Atlanta, despite out-gaining the Falcons 403-333. Nick Chubb and company should have a field day against this Chargers' run defense. The Chargers' offensive line is ranked No. 30 at Football Outsiders, while the Browns are ranked No. 7 so far this season. Cleveland owns the much better special teams unit. Second straight road game for the Chargers after playing indoors last week. Strong angle. This week playing at 1:00 PM E (10:00 AM body clock) against a physical team seems like a tough spot. Take the Browns!

3*Pittsburgh Steelers +14.5

I like Kenny Pickett and consider him an upgrade. He brings unbridled enthusiasm and his mobility should help move the chains. The Bills played a high-energy (90 offensive snaps) game in Miami and then another high-energy emotional come-from-behind victory against Baltimore. The Steelers have never been this large of an underdog and you can be sure Mike Tomlin will use it as motivation. Pittsburgh's offensive line is ranked No. 13 at Football Outsiders, while Buffalo is ranked No. 32 thru week four. The Steelers are ranked No. 9 in opponent passer rating (77). The Buffalo Bills have their ultimate revenge game (Divisional playoff loss 42-36 in OT) against the Kansas City Chiefs next week. This line seems inflated. I like the road dog!

5*Miami U -3.5

The Hurricanes have two weeks to prepare after their embarrassing loss vs. Middle Tenn State as 26-point home chalk. Mario Cristobal is 6-2 against-the-spread when playing with extra rest since 2018. Miami's offensive line ranked No. 38, while North Carolina is ranked No. 90 at Football Outsiders. The Hurricanes' defensive line is ranked No. 33, while the Tar Heels are ranked No. 119 this season. North Carolina defeated Miami 45-42, despite getting out-gained 421-382 last year. The Tar Heels benefited from a +2 turnover differential. This will be the highest humidity game for the road team so far this season. North Carolina is 3-8 straight-up and 1-10 ATS off a win against a conference rival since 2019. Take the hungry host!

4*Baltimore Ravens +4

The Buffalo Bills offense was on the field for 90 plays in last week's loss at Miami. They will now play their second straight road game in less than ideal conditions. Rain is expected (78%) from the remnants of Hurricane Ian. Buffalo defeated the Ravens 17-3 in the 2021 divisional playoffs, despite getting out-gained 340-220. The Ravens last home game vs. Miami was a meltdown of epic proportions. They should be motivated. Baltimore is 7-2 ATS as an underdog in their last nine games. Buffalo is 5-7 straight-up and 4-8 against-the-spread when playing on a grass field of late. Take the home dog in what should be a tight game! 

4*Iowa State -3

Kansas is 4-0 straight-up & 4-0 against-the-spread, despite getting out-gained in two of those games. Iowa State has the better offensive line, defensive line, special teams, and overall defense according to every metric. The Jayhawks have played a much easier schedule so far. Kansas is 1-9 SU & 2-7-1 ATS vs. winning teams of late. The Cyclones are 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. I like the road team in this spot!

4*Oklahoma State +2.5

The Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. Baylor defeated Oklahoma State 21-16 as 7-point road underdogs last season. The Cowboys out-gained Baylor 333-242. Both teams have a Top 2 offensive and defensive lines in the Big 12. Oklahoma State is 5-1 straight-up and 5-1 against-the-spread after their BYE week of late. The Cowboys are 21-6-1 ATS vs. winning teams. I see value on the road team!

4*Jacksonville Jaguars +7

The Chargers have seven key starters listed as questionable on their injury report. Their starting center Corey Linsley is elite. If he does play, he won't be 100% healthy. The Chargers could also be rusty from not having six players practice this week. It's going to be hot (around 90). Despite the roof, the open sides of the stadium still make it vulnerable to extreme heat. I think the Jaguars will handle the hot weather better than the Chargers. LA doesn't really have any home field edge as most of their fans are in San Diego. Jacksonville hasn't won on the road in their past 17 games. They should be motivated. I think they keep this one close!

3*Carolina Panthers +3

This will be the first game outdoors for the majority of the Saints' roster since last year. Carolina should have a lot of confidence, knowing they beat New Orleans 26-7 as 3-point home dogs in week two last season. The Panthers out-gained New Orleans 383-128 with Sam Darnold under center. New Orleans has allowed 10 sacks in two games and will be without their starting left tackle. Carolina is 4-0 against-the-spread in Week 3 over the past four years. New Orleans is 1-3 straight-up after playing Tampa Bay the last two seasons. The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Saints play the Vikings in London next week. Take the home dog! 

5*Arkansas +2

Texas A&M made a QB switch and escaped with a victory against Miami, despite getting out-gained by 128 yards. That loss to Appalachian State is a red flag. The Razorbacks have a really good pass rush and now will face an inexperienced QB at a neutral site. We get the better QB (dual threat), offensive line, and red-zone efficiency as an underdog. Arkansas has out-gained all three foes by 113 yards to start the season. The Razorbacks out-gained the Aggies 448-272 in their 20-10 win last season. Don't worry that Arkansas plays Alabama next week. In a similar spot last year, Arkansas defeated LSU before playing the Crimson Tide. Arkansas has a lot more experience playing on field turf. The Razorbacks are 8-5 straight-up, while Texas A&M is just 1-1 SU over the past three seasons. Larger sample size shows Texas A&M just 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf. Take the dog!

3*Philadelphia Eagles -1.5

Minnesota is in the middle of a division sandwich. They are coming off an emotional win and play another division game next week. The Eagles should be able to dominate the Vikings' undersized interior offensive line. Minnesota and QB Kirk Cousins haven't played great in prime-time games. We also have a rookie head coach making his road debut. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points. Light play on the home chalk.

3*Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

The majority of the Colts roster haven't played a game outdoors since losing to the Jaguars in week 18 last year. The public loves the Colts in this revenge spot. Not so fast. The Colts' offense was on the field for 90 plays in their 20-20 tie last week. In the last 30 games, teams off a tie are just 13-17 ATS in their next game. Light play on the home team!

4*Fresno State +12.5

This will be the best offense that USC has played so far this season. The over/under tells the entire story. Points will be scored by both teams. The Trojans don't have a shut-down defense and the back door will always be open (if needed). USC has a big revenge game on deck against Pac-12 rival Oregon State. The Bulldogs should be all in knowing they have a BYE next week. Fresno State is 9-2 ATS as a road dog, while USC is 3-8 ATS as home chalk of late. The Trojans are just 1-4 ATS after scoring 40+ points. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS after a straight-up loss. The road dog checks all the boxes!  

5*New York Giants +6

The Titans' offensive line is in major flux. They decided to invest heavily on the defensive line (see below). The Giants' offensive line looks much improved and all their key starters played meaningful snaps in the preseason. The Titans really don't know what type of offense the new regime will implement. New York knows exactly the Titans game plan, which features Derrick Henry behind a shaky offensive line. Tennessee just lost their best edge rusher from a year ago with a season-ending injury. The Titans play the Buffalo Bills next week on Monday Night Football. Take the road dog!

4*Detroit Lions +4

The Lions' offensive line is ranked No. 3 at Pro Football Focus and they have very talented skill players at RB, WR, and TE. Jared Goff is very capable and once put up 50+ points on MNF. The Lions drafted well on the defense and should improve in year two under Dan Campbell. In week one, you want to play on teams that missed the playoffs against teams that made the playoffs from the previous year. Strong angle. The Lions should be focused knowing the Eagles crushed them 44-6 in Detroit last Halloween. Take the home dog!

5*Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

The Steelers played most of their starters in the preseason, while the Bengals decided to rest nearly every key player on the roster. The Bengals went 2-0 against Pittsburgh last season (out-scored Pittsburgh 65-20), despite getting out-gained 643-638. Mike Tomlin and company are 4-1-1 straight-up of late when playing on the road in week one. This line seems super inflated to me for a division game in week one. Division underdogs are 29-9-1 ATS in week one since 2014. Take the road dog!

5*Georgia State +7.5

North Carolina defeated Appalachian State 63-61, despite getting out-gained by 82 yards last week. Georgia state has the better offensive line, defensive line, and special teams. North Carolina is 0-5 straight-up and 0-5 ATS when playing back-to-back road games of late. The Panthers are 14-6 ATS playing on turf, while the Tar Heels are just 1-4 ATS on that same surface over the past three years. Georgia State is 5-1 ATS after a loss of 20+ points. Take the hungry host!

5*Boise State +2.5

The Broncos return 17 starters from a squad that went 7-5, while defeating two ranked teams last season. Boise State out-scored their opponents by 10 points per game. I see more improvements in year two under Andy Avalos. The Beavers should get better as the season plays out. Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith is 0-4 straight-up and 0-4 against-the-spread in openers. Boise State is 32-16 ATS as an underdog since 1993. Take the road dog!

5*San Diego State -6

The Aztecs defeated Arizona 38-14 as 1-point road dogs last season. San Diego State out-gained Arizona 454-230. Arizona has a long way to go after winning just one game last season. The Wildcats' offensive line is ranked No. 12 in the Pac 12, and their defensive line is ranked No. 10. The Aztecs' offensive line is ranked No. 2 in the Mountain West, and their defensive line is ranked No. 1 heading into this opener. The Aztecs will be debuting in a brand new home stadium. The new grass field should benefit San Diego State. The Aztecs are 10-5 straight-up and 9-6 against-the-spread on a grass field. Arizona plays mostly on field turf. They are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS playing on a grass field over the past three years. Take the home team!

5*Kansas City Chiefs -1.5

There is a lot of support for the Bills. I guess their looking at Buffalo's superb 4.6 opponent yards per play. Not so fast. They faced a plethora of sub-par quarterbacks. The Bills (16th) played the easier schedule than Kansas City (4th). I just can't get the fact out of my mind that Buffalo lost to the Jaguars. The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their past 11 games, holding opponents to 16.5 points per game. The Bills literally played a perfect game on offense last week. No punts, no fumbles lost, no interceptions, no field goals. Just a touchdown on seven straight drives until the kneel down. It will be loud, making it very difficult for Josh Allen to improvise. He does that quite often. Kansas City went 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS vs winning teams, while the Bills went 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS vs winning teams. Buffalo is also 2-3 SU on a grass field, while Kansas City went 11-4 SU. Patrick Mahomes ll is 7-2 SU in the playoffs, only losing to Tom Brady. The Bills defeated the Chiefs earlier this season in Kansas City. I love Andy Reid and the Chiefs in this rematch. Lay it!