5* play.

I'm taking what I perceive as value with the Eagles getting the points and it all stems from the QB play. While odds-makers keep doubting Nick Foles, I think the system that made Philly the NFC's # 1 seed is meshing well with Foles as he gets more comfortable with 2 more weeks of practice and preparation. He just shredded the NFL's #1 defense in the biggest game of his life. Foles has the momentum with him and he's got the better defense on his side.

With the way the Eagles can apply pressure, their secondary in my opinion can pose the bigger threat. New England is not a good team on turf and I think the fast track favors the Eagles and their speed.

Lastly the Eagles are 4-0 ATS when they get 8 or more days of rest between games, compared to just 3-2 for the Pats. I'm going with the Eagles and the points in the Super Bowl.

I few props I like.

UNDER 10 pts in the 1st Q

First score of the game to be a TD.

Zach Ertz total receptions OVER 5.5

Will both teams use all 6 of their timeouts?  NO 

New England has the right offense to attack the Jags. They have TE's and RB's who catch passes and expose their defense just like the SF 49ers did to Jax.

 The Patriots have a huge edge in quarterback play and I just do not believe Blake Bortles can repeat his performance from last week. New England has great success covering these big numbers and at some point, in this game QB Brady will  pick them apart in the passing game.  Despite covering the spread last week, Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road playoff games.

New England will keep Blake Bortles from making the big plays on 3rd down and New England will force Jacksonville to try and make those plays on 3rd and long. With 4 picks, and just 1 TD, along with completing around just 53% on the season on 3rd and 7 or more yards - I trust New England and their LBs. I don't trust the WRs of Jacksonville to make those plays when needed.

Jacksonville has scored only 10 pts in 2 of their last 3 games - here, in New England, their scoring goes back to normal. Jacksonville is coming off an enormous and emotional win vs the Steelers, this is the letdown spot for them. 

Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games and I like them to win by double digits as our 10* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR.

10* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year

The Eagles had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and also playing at home.  Their defense is very good.

 I think they have enough to slow down the Falcons and Philadelphia’s offense should do enough to grind out the win. 

Zach Ertz is a natural leader, and has all the physical tools needed to be great here vs Atlanta. The Eagles have speed with their defense - especially with Brandon Graham on the outside - and excellent strength up front. Philadelphia will continue their hot defensive trend making them far too tough to beat here. They are very balanced and they can play any kind of game, they can pass or run the ball, and they have been really good with their pass coverage as of late.

Atlanta will never be consistently competitive until they find a steadier running game - Atlanta has only generated one 100 yard rusher over the last 14 games. Philly will be able to shut that down here, with their aggressive line play as well. Atlanta enters the game allowing opponents to pass at 66% percent. Which is the 27th ranked passing percentage in the league.

I'm taking the EAGLES with the points.

5*

This is a double revenge game for Carolina. Cam Newton is coming off an awful game last week. Look for Cam to run the ball and get on the right page with his TE Greg Olsen. The Panthers have won seven of their last nine, covering six of them. I'm a fan of Ron Rivera as his teams are always prepared to play. While Carolina lost both regular-season meetings with the Saints, New Orleans went 2-5 ATS down the stretch and its defense has shown some cracks, allowing 288 passing yards or more in four of the last seven games. I'm backing the underdog with the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

5* 

It's hard to win by over nine points when the total for the game is just 39.5. This will be a slow, grind it out, run the ball game from both teams. Jax QB Blake Bortles remains mistake-prone despite improving on the season, and the Bills defense has enough to force a turnover or two from him. In a game that figures to be defensive receiving a touchdown-plus offers solid value. Neither of these two teams have players that are postseason experienced to any significant degree and the Jags are being overvalued by the oddsmakers based on a regular season that saw the defense standout. The Bills want you to believe that there is a question mark about the playing status of Shady McCoy but Tyrod Taylor will have his running back active and ready for Sunday's contest. I believe the Jaguars win this one, but Buffalo will keep it close, and they have an outside shot of stealing this game. Take the+ 8.5-9 points.

5* 

Goff doesn't take unnecessary quick shots, he will be patient, making the DBs of Atlanta work defensively. When LA is moving the ball by ground they are a very different team. The Falcons have just been incredibly inconsistent, and their scoring is unpredictable. Atlanta have faired poorly on the road, vs good teams - as all 3 of their road losses were to playoff teams this year. This isn't any easier vs a team that went 11-5. I know it's the first playoff game for Jared Goff and Sean McVay, but I don't care. They are real rested from sitting out a lot of their starters in last weeks season finale. Goff gets better coaching and play calls than Matt Ryan, who's saddled with Steve Sarkisian, and Goff will outplay the veteran Saturday. Rams get the double-digit home win.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK 

The Titans have been one of the more frustrating teams to analyze all season long. They limp into the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The key in this game will be avoiding the big mistake, which is very tough to avoid for a young team going up against a Chiefs squad well-equipped for the challenge. KC has the veteran QB, offensive and special teams weapons and they are playing at home. Lay the points as the CHIEFS win big on Saturday evening.

5* 

Arizona coach Bruce Arians is 3-1 at Seattle during his tenure as Cardinals coach. His teams have twice handed the Seahawks their lone home loss of the season. Look for Arizona to be stubborn again Sunday.

 The Seahawks with Russell Wilson are 1-4 against the spread at home over the last five games. 

The idea that the Seahawks are impervious to defeat, or even a tough battle at home because they're playing in from the 12th man. The Rams were up 40 to nothing on them two weeks ago. That's who the Seahawks truly are. Russ has been sacked 14 times over the last four games. No quarterback in the NFL has been pressured more than Russell-- Russell Wilson. 207 pressures. Oh Yeah, by the way, this is probably Bruce Arians last game coaching for the Arizona Cardinals. 

I don't think the Cardinals win, but they'll keep the score within single digits.

5*

Miami would like nothing more than to put an end to the Bills playoff dreams and chances.

The Dolphins are tough at home as they already beat New England. THey also beat the Titans and Falcons.

Look for Jay Cutler to get some revenge from a earlier loss.

Their defense is young but good and the roster and positional players seem to be improving heading into 2018. I like the home underdog here with MIAMI as we try and end the NFL regular season with yet another 10* NFL WINNER

This is a terrible spot for the Raiders, as they're basically out of the playoff race and have to travel cross-country for a Christmas Day game against a team fighting for homefield advantage. I don't see how the Raiders, a team that has seemingly had motivation issues this season, gets up for this game. 

The Raiders are 2-8-2 ATS since Week 2, and while the Eagles are 1-2 ATS in their last three, all three came on the road (2 on the West Coast). With some extra practice time I like the Eagles and Nick Foles to roll on Christmas Night.

5*

The narrative here is the return of Ezekiel Elliott, who figures to run all over and through the Seahawks as the Cowboys try and keep their playoff hopes alive. But don't overlook the Seahawks defense getting healthier, with defensive leader Bobby Wagner missing from the final injury report as he, Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas are all good to go after missing practice Thursday. I am backing the Seattle Seahawks getting 5 pts in a bounce back game after getting humiliated by the Rams. It may be Zeke’s return game, but this is all about Russell Wilson coming off a loss. Seattle will come out strong and the Cowboys secondary is weak. Sunday was only the Seahawks 3rd Loss by 10+ points since drafting Wilson. Following the previous 2, Seattle won both games by an average of 23.5 PPG. This one comes back to a FG and I'll take Seattle as our 10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK!

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK 

The Bengals will make the most of it today but they are eliminated from the post-season. The pressure on Detroit is far more enormous than Cincinnati. The Bengals know matter what they do here have everything to gain and nothing to lose and thus will be bound to play looser. This is especially true given the venue of this contest. The fact remains a raucous crowd will be in Detroit’s face every step of the way and we can’t trust them spotting this kind of lumber given the slip-up factor that accompanies a team with the potential to play tight. The Bengals will be playing hard as its their head coaches final home game and I believe they'll get him one final win on Christmas Eve. Cincinnati may just win this game outright and ruin Detroit’s post-season aspirations.

5* 

The Colts are dismal right now and the Ravens need this game in a bad way. You have a Ravens team that is 8-6 with Harbaugh on the hot seat and he cannot afford to shit the bed here at home. His team has won 4 of its last 5 games, come together on offense, is 12th in the league in rushing now, a top 10 defense, scored 27 against the Browns, nearly beat the Steelers outright on the road, 44 against Detroit and gave up a combined 16 points to Green Bay and Houston. This shows that this team is consistent as it relates to beating teams they are supposed to with quality defense and controlling the game and consequently we like the Ravens to get it done here. They will pressure the Colts and I cant see the Colts being able to rush the ball. Take the Ravens by 21.

5* 

This line feels too high to me. 

The Falcons' biggest road win of the season was six points against the Bears in Week 1, and they have to go on the road and face New Orleans in a huge divisional game next week. They might be looking ahead.

The Bucs will be playing their Super Bowl here on MNF: a rare primetime game against a divisional rival at home. They've only been blown out once at home this year, to a better defense than the Falcons (Carolina).  I'll take the HOME UNDERDOG with TB on MNF.

5*

The New England Patriots, coming off a shocking loss to the Miami Dolphins, go on the road to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers who are fresh off a nail biter of a win over the Baltimore Ravens.  Tom Brady played terrible in that game with 2 INT's and the Pats were 0-11 on 3rd downs.

New England is the best passing team in the league and are averaging the 4th most points and get Gronk back for this game.  Also Tom Brady is 6-0 with 22 TD's and 0 INT's in his last 6 versus the Steelers.

The Steelers have been playing close games all season long and have had their last three games decided by three points or less. Big Ben has not really looked like himself all season long and when you look back at the schedule this team has had you really struggle to find a single impressive win except when they beat the Vikings in week two. The Steelers defense is allowing only 19.3 points per game but have had very weak opposition.

You know that Tom Brady has a track record of bouncing back from losses and Belichick is not the kind of coach to tolerate anything but a great performance the week after a letdown.   Take the NE Patriots on Sunday evening as our 10* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!

10* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

With the Dolphins coming off their biggest win of the season against the Patriots, look for the Bills to take advantage of a letdown spot for Miami. Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor will return from injury Sunday, giving Buffalo's offense a needed boast. The Bills also remain on the threshold of playoff contention, so this is essentially a must-win in order to stay alive in the playoff hunt. Jay Cutler is 12-15 all-time when the temperature is under 40 degrees, including losing 5 of his last 6. Buffalo’s 6th-ranked rushing offense should be effective against a Dolphins defense that has given up the 5th-most rushing yards in the NFL since Week 8. Shady McCoy is coming off a monster game in the weather against the Colts, and should be even more effective this Sunday. Following its most impressive performance of the season in an upset of New England, I'm counting on a letdown from the Dolphins on Sunday playing in the cold.

5* 

Looking back at Week 11, a 27-24 Detroit win, you can almost see into the future for this weekend. Chicago jumped out to 7-0 and 17-7 leads but the Lions were able to get 299 passing yards and two scores out of Stafford. Look for Detroit to play and pass much better here at home. The Lions will also key on stopping the Bears running attack which will shut down the Bears offense. Ultimately, I see Detroit pulling out a win as they have more playmakers than Chicago. Alongside Jones and Tate, the Lions have a matchup edge with tight end Eric Ebron when he is matched up against a linebacker and Theo Riddick provides many of the same problems when he is catching the ball out of the backfield. Ameer Abdullah is probable after missing a week with a neck injury so Detroit will at least have its full complement of skill position players to use today. Look for Detroit to get enough production to stay alive in the playoffs with a win & cover here at home.

5* 

This Rams team has a bunch of very good players.

Getting the Rams laying anything less than a field goal is tremendous value. There's also a big coaching edge with Sean McVay facing Doug Pederson. The PUBLIC is all over the Eagles expecting them to bounce back.  NOT ME- as I think the Rams are the better team.

 The Rams should have success in their passing game and they are a very dangerous team with their offensive playcalling and weapons with speed when playing in the warm weather.  I'm backing the LA Rams in this game here Sunday evening.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

I like Arizona as a home underdog against Marcus Mariota and Tennessee. What happened in the past does not dictate what happens in the future. In terms of the law of averages Arizona is better now than they were a month ago - even though that's not saying a lot. If the Cards D improves and the O stays healthy, this will get back to being a good team. Over the last 4 weeks of the 2017 season Arizona has really been showing their improvement vs the passing game. Titans are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record The Titans are 1-4 over their last 5 on the road and 2-3 overall in their last 5, while averaging just 14.6 PPG, 248.8 YPG, and almost 3 Giveaways per game. In his last 4 road games, Mariota has 2 touchdowns, 8 picks, and a pathetic passer rating of only 62.1. Arizona has forced 6 turnovers in their last 3 games. Since the bye in Week 8, Larry Fitzgerald is averaging 10.2 Targets/PG, 7.4 Rec/PG, 76.8 YPG, 2 TD, and he could do damage against a Titans D that has allowed 7 Passing TD’s in their last 4. Take the Cardinals at home PLUS the FG here on Sunday.

5* 

This marks the 24th meeting between Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and Cincinnati Marvin Lewis, two of the most entrenched coaches in the league. The Bengal defense has also been very good this year as they have allowed only 19.5 points per game and have not allowed a 300 yard passer all season. There are several factors here working in the Bengals favor as they are a Monday night home dog and an inter divisional home dog and also they are trying to hold on to slim playoff hopes. This is a playoff game for the Bengals as they need to win to get to 6-6. If they lose and goto 5-7 the playoff hunt is pretty much over. Look for a FG type of game with sloppy weather and I'll take the home underdog with Cincy here on MNF.

5* 

In their first meeting in week 7 the Rams won 33-0 and it was ugly. The defense gave up 425 yards and 28 first downs in that game.  The Cards also struggled on converting 3rd downs and it was the first time they were shutout since 2012.   Head coach Bruce Arians said his team will be ready this time and things will be different.

With a win here at home the Cardinals would be 6-6 and still in the playoff hunt.

Blaine Gabbert continues to be undervalued based on his performance in previous seasons. It's also a nice revenge spot for the Cardinals, who were embarrassed earlier this season. Arizona's offensive line is healthy and that is a plus. Despite Arizona's injuries at running back,Adrian Peterson is expected to play today.  I'll  take the Cardinals +7 to keep this one close at home.

10*

The Buffalo Bills seem to have recovered well from their disastrous QB experiment as Tyrod Taylor came back and played great to lead his team to a win on the road over the KC Chiefs. The Bills defense played great allowing only 10 points and grabbing an INT in addition to sacking Alex Smith twice. The Bills running game looked solid with McCoy, Cadet, and Taylor all chipping in to total 104 rushing yards. Take the Bills and the points in this one as they look to be back on track and now playing at home. I like Buffalo to be a very strong team this week and could beat New England but getting 9 pts the Bills hang tight here on Sunday.

5* 

Things aren't going very well for the Cowboys during their three-game skid with RB Ezekiel Elliott and LB Sean Lee out, but they have a decent opportunity to score against the Redskins' defense just because most offenses do.

The focus for both teams all week were defense and don't allow big plays.

                 The Skins’ injury report runs 14 players long. Three did practice fully Monday; the others were out or limited. The Cowboys listed eight ailing players, half of whom sat out the latest practice. The Cowboys have struggled without Sean Lee.

 The Cowboys are going to have to play ground control with long time consuming drives.

 In the first meeting they scored 16 pts in the final 5 minutes including a pick-6 so the final score was misleading.

Look for plenty of FG's and this game to stay UNDER THE TOTAL on Thursday night.

5*

If it wasn't for Joe Flacco's 11 interceptions, the Ravens would easily have the best turnover margin team in the NFL. As it sits right now, Baltimore is +8, three behind Jacksonville's +11 coming into this week. The Ravens' defense has been tough the entire season and the reason they're in the running for a wild card. 

Baltimore got a big win last week vs. the Packers and I like them at home on MNF.

Between an effective pass rush and an aggressive secondary, they've forced an NFL-leading 23 turnovers, which includes an NFL-best 16 interceptions. Those lead to short field situations and easy scores. I look for Baltimore's defense to force Savage to commit turnovers here on the road. Look for the Ravens to get the win and cover and yet another NFL favorite to grab the cash.

5*

New Orleans’ defense held GB, CHI, TB and BUF to 12 PPG before allowing Washington 31 points LW but the two road games (Bills and Packers) came against offenses that are ranked #26 and #23. Washington’s offense is #12 and now New Orleans has to face the Rams #5 offense. Rams coming off loss at Minnesota and I expect a HUGE bounce back. Jared Goff and the Rams offense has been very good this year.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK 

The short week by having to play on Thursday is a huge advantage for the home teams. It's all about the Cowboys run game. Running back Alfred Morris ran for 91 yards on 17 carries to lead the Cowboys against Philadelphia. On the season, the Chargers rank 22nd in defense. Yeah, they put pressure on QB's but they struggle to stop the run. They’ve struggled against the run all season, allowing 138.9 yards per game (32nd). They averaged 341.3 yards per game and 94.4 yards per game on the ground (25th). It's hard to put the Cowboys on a MUST WIN alert but at 5-5, they are. Look for a gallant effort by Dallas to get the WIN and avoid their 3rd straight loss.

5* 

 I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. Minnesota was only a 3-point favorite at home earlier this season, which they lost 7-14. Detroit is averaging 27.6 ppg and just over 350 ypg at home this season. At the same time the Vikings are giving up 22.2 ppg on the road, well above their season average of 17.2 ppg. Lions have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. I'm backing the home dog with Detroit in this early kickoff on Thanksgiving.

5* 

The Seahawks are known for a tough defense and a great home field advantage. In the winning streak the Seahawk defense has played very well outside of one game where they were unable to stop Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans. If you remove that game from the total the Seahawks have only allowed 16 points per game. This is huge game for both of these teams and both teams have defenses that have been playing very well lately. As I said earlier I would expect the Seahawks to score 20 points and they only allow 16. Many pundits will overreact to what the Falcons did against the Cowboys. But Seattle, even without Richard Sherman, poses a serious threat to the Falcons' offense. Russell Wilson is still a wizard out there and he'll keep the Falcons' defense guessing all game long. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS a 5* MNF play.

5* 

Baltimore is very good after their BYE week and I think Harbaugh will have them ready. This is a big game for the Ravens to win and get to 5-5 on the season. Baltimore was expected to have one of the best defenses in the NFL coming into the season with their combination of talent and depth. They are sixth in the league in yards allowed, and eighth in points (19 points per game).

Joe Flacco should be able to move the ball vs. the Packers defense and the strength of the Ravens defense is their ability to stop the run and I cant trust Brett Hundley.

 We’ve seen the Packers offense for three games without Aaron Rodgers now, and Green Bay hasn’t been able to move the football effectively in any of them. 

 Harbaugh’s squad is getting healthier which is excellent news for a team that was riddled with injuries right from the start of training camp. 

 With Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead both expected back on the field this week and an extra week to prepare I expect the Baltimore offense to move the ball and get the win and cover on Sunday afternoon.

  10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

Cleveland is great running the ball, ranking sixth in rush yards and piling up 201 rushing yards against the Lions last week. The Jags are terrible against the run ranked 30th in rush defense. On the flip side, Cleveland is excellent defending the run, ranking second in rush defense and the Jaguars offense is also ravaged by injuries. We also have a warm weather team traveling north to play in chilly Cleveland. The Jags' defense has played outstanding all season long. Browns QB Kizer has been improving nicely and I'll back the home underdog in this one with Cleveland.

5* 

I don’t think the Titans are getting enough credit for some of the defensive adjustments they’ve made since Week 3. They’re playing much better up front and the offense is getting healthier.

The Steelers have scored 20 or fewer in two-thirds of their games. The Titans have not lost straight-up since Oct. 8th. Those factors suggest the spread belongs a few points south of a touchdown. Pittsburgh might have the marquee cast on offense with Big Ben, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Bryant,  but I’ll settle for Marcus Mariota and the best RB tandem in the league, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Pittsburgh has fallen 3 consecutive times on Thursdays, and the Titans have covered in five of seven in the series. I'll take the Titans with the pts here on Thursday night.

5*

The Dolphins are one of the worst 4-4 teams the NFL has seen recently. They rank last in yards per play, and they got shut out the last time they ventured on the road. Carolina's elite defense will control this one, with Cam Newton and the offense should have no problem covering this number on Monday night. Take the Panthers here!

5* 

I understand that Zeke Elliott is an impact running back but they have 2 quality replacements who will be fresh and ready to go behind that great offensive line. Dak Prescott is on fire, leading the team to 28+ points in each of their last six ballgames and making good decisions with the football week after week – he’s thrown only 2 INT’s during that entire six week span. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS over their last 5, and are 1-4 in their last 5 overall. Atlanta is 1-4 when allowing 100+ rushing yards on the year, and will face a Cowboys offense averaging 183.4 Rush YPG over their last 5. The Cowboys defense has traveled well this season. In 3 road games, they’ve allowed just 15.3 PPG and 302.3 YPG. I'm backing the DALLAS COWBOYS as our 10* GAME OF THE WEEK! 

The Jets have been a nice story, but they’re bad on the road. They have 7 turnovers and are allowing 398.5 yards per game to opponents in their four road games, this year. Jameis Winston is out, but back up Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 95.7 passer rating, and is completing 62.5% of his passes in limited action. He also faces his old team with some revenge on his mind. I'm taking TB at home here on Sunday. 

5*

I like the Vikings here and their dominant defense, coming off their BYE week. The Vikings are 4-2 ATS over their last 6 facing a Washington team that’s just 1-4 ATS in their last 5, and 1-5 ATS over their last 6 at home. Washington hasn’t exceeded 300 yards of total offense in each of the last 2 weeks and likely won’t start this week against a Minnesota D that hasn’t allowed 300 yards to an opponent since Week 3. During their 4-game win streak, the Vikings are averaging 32.5 rushing attempts, 132.0 yards per game, and have a rushing touchdown in each game. They should be able to manufacture enough points against a Redskin defense that’s allowing 24.3 PPG.

5* 

Arizona has alternated wins and losses this season with the losses coming by double digits each time. Arizona is coming off a 10 pt win over the 49ers on Sunday in game where Adrian Peterson carried the ball 37 times.  Its going to be tough for him to carry the load on a short week.

Seattle was sloppy on Sunday as they were flagged for 16 violations that resulted in a number of drive-killing plays... all for a total of nearly 140 penalty yards. 

Pete Carroll teams excel in the second half of the season. The running game was better against Washington rushing for 148 yards. Wilson ran for 77 yards on 10 carries, and Thomas Rawls ran for 39 yards on nine carries. Eddie Lacy left the game early with a groin injury, so his status is somewhat up in the air given the short turnaround. 

Seattle is the  better overall team with the better QB here on the short week and we'll back the Seahawks.

5*

I realize Brett Hundley can't possibly be as bad as he's been after the GB BYE week with coach McCarthy instilling some confidence and doing some play calling that is more suited for his style, but the Packers struggle when star QB Rodgers is out. Its a QB driven league and I'll take Stafford here in a must win game for the Lions to even up their record at 4-4. Detroit is the play with the better QB and offense here on MNF.

5* 

This is a divisional game and I for it to be a close one. Jameis Winston practiced in full Friday, and I expect the Bucs' offense to bounce back in a big way after last week's debacle vs the Panthers. I healthy Winston will be the difference maker and they have enough weaons on offense to stay with New Orleans. The Saints are a big-play defense, not a shutdown unit. None of the last six meetings has been decided by more than 7 points.

5* 

Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home and in the Titans’ 4 wins, they’re averaging 155.5 rushing yards per game with 6 rush TD’s. The Ravens have 30th ranked rushing defense (132.8 YPG) should have a hard time stopping them on the ground. They are also the healthiest team in the NFL right now with no players listed on the injury report. QB Marcus Mariota is much healthier after injuring his hamstring, and he should start using his legs as well as his arm going forward. The Ravens are coming off a 40-0 blowout over Miami last Thursday at home, and you can expect the Ravens to come back down to earth in a hurry on Sunday on the road here. The venue favors Tennessee, which is on a 6-1 ATS home streak while Baltimore has dropped eight of 11 ATS away.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK 

In their 1st meeting McCoy ran for 110 yards and a TD.

 Josh McCown and the Jets' will try short-passing attacks will move the ball against the Bills' zone-based defense. The Jets have played a pretty easy schedule so far and I like the Bills defense to keep the Jets in check tonight on Thursday night.

Buffalo is #1 in turnover margin.  They are +14 and rarely turn the ball over and they force turnovers.  This team could easily be undefeated.

McCoy is coming off a big game vs. the Raiders running 27 times for 151 yards only four days ago.  The Jets swept the Bills last year winning both games and I look for the Bills to get the sweep of the season this year.

The Bills added more offensive help with WR Calvin Benjamin coming over to the team this week. In the 1st meeting the Buffalo had almost 200 more total yards and 12 more first downs.  I expect more of the same tonight and Buffalo to get the WIN and COVER with the short week.  

5*

The Cowboys are road warriors, having gone 19-8 straight-up dating to the 2013 season. They convert at a high rate in the red zone and figure to capitalize on Washington’s defensive soft spot inside the 20. 

The primary reason for Dallas’ success near the goal line is RB Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys offensive line.

The Dallas defense is also healthy again with Shaun Lee back in action.

Dallas is 12-5 in their last 17 overall against the Redskins, including winning their last 4 games in Washington.

 Kirk Cousins is 0-3 at home against Dallas, and just 3-6 in his career, at home against NFC East opponents.

The Cowboy offense ranks 2nd in rushing (147.5 ypg), 5th in 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (45.3%), and is averaging a league high 449.7 Total Yards Per Game since Week 4. 

The Dallas Cowboys are my NFL GAME OF THE WEEK.

This is too many points here in this one.

 Houston is 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (137.7), and Deshaun Watson has a Passer Rating of 118.3 with 12 TD and 2 interceptions since wideout Will Fuller returned to the lineup in Week 4. They’ve also scored touchdowns on 7 of their last 8 red zone drives.

Russell Wilson has been better on the road the road than at home. He only has 3 touchdowns against 2 interceptions at Qwest Field, compared to 8 touchdowns and only 1 pick away from home.

Take Houston plus the points to keep it close throughout.

5*

Both defenses are in trouble in this one. Carolina allowed 24 or more points in each of four games before last week's debacle at Chicago. Tampa Bay allowed 23 or more points in four of its last five. The Bucs' lack of a decent pass rush should give Cam Newton plenty of time to make plays, and Jameis Winston should also find the getting good with so many dangerous targets on the field. Remember, Tampa Bay played an excellent Buffalo defense and still did pretty well and this offense likely busts out in a big way at home as the defense is what is the issue in Tampa Bay and not the offense. Plenty of offense in this contest as this game goes OVER THE TOTAL. 

5*

The home team usually has the edge with a short week and Miami traveling north into the cooler weather will help the Ravens. I look for Joe Flacco to have a big game against a weak Miami secondary. Maclin and Wallace should have big games receiving along with TE Benjamin Watson. Matt Moore stepped in last week and did great things within this Dolphins offense, leading the 14 pt comeback win against the Jets. Things are different when you’re the starter as opposed to coming off the bench. The Ravens' defense will present a lot more problems than the Jets did. Take the RAVENS here on Thursday night. 

5* 

Washington has revenge from a 30-17 loss in week 1. The Eagles have been a lucky team so far, winning 3 of their last 4 games by 5 or less. Philly has the slightly better defense and Washington has an edge on offense. The Redskins have won three of four behind a surging defense that ranks No. 5 overall (316 yards per game).In a matchup of relatively even teams, I’ll take the club with the slightly better defense getting that should be able to move the ball against a weak Eagles secondary.

5* 

QB Ben Roethlisberger is either permanently fading or temporarily slumping, which has reduced the offense pretty much to RB Le’Veon Bell carrying the ball and WR Martavis Bryant reportedly seeking a trade. Problem is, the Bengals give up just 3.8 yards per carry, one element of their No. 2-ranked defense overall. They have won twice in succession after bowing to the Packers in overtime and are stepping out of their BYE week in a big divisional game. The Bengals are now just one win away from being .500 and if they can win this division game, they are right back in the thick of things We like this Bengals defense a lot and we think they will keep them in this game and the Bengals are highly motivated to get us the ATS Cover.

5* 

The Rams made this trip last season, and I like the familiarity aspect they have with this trip. I also give an edge on the team’s decision to remain in Jacksonville following last week’s game before crossing the pond. Lastly, this Cardinals defense that’s given up the most passing TD’s of 20+ yards will meet L.A.’s top ranked scoring offense that leads the league in scoring and 20+ yard plays. Arizona is the only team that’s allowed 100 QB pressures – Carson Palmer has been hit an NFL high 55 times and the Rams defense, led by Aaron Donald is averaging 13 QB pressures per game. There might not be a more disruptive defender in the entire NFL than Aaron Donald. That guy is pretty much unstoppable at this point, and Palmer under pressure is very vulnerable to making mistakes. Take L.A. Rams in this one.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK 

QB Marcus Mariota is expected to play and with the Titans coming off a poor performance, I look for a rejuvenated team, a strong homefield advantage and a comfortable win. I look for their offense to get back on track.

The Colts are very bad this year.  They've been outscored on the road by a combined score of 92-27.

They sport an abysmal negative-1.2 yards per play differential on the season, well behind the Titans' total and that of most other teams.  I look for the TITANS to come out strong and win by 10 or more on MNF.

5*

I am going to take the points with Pittsburgh in this one. The fact that Kansas City has started out 5-0 ATS and are the talk of the NFL right now, the public is lining up to take them. Also Big Ben just threw 5 INT's in his last game with 2 being returned for TD's. This line has been inflated because of that and thus the value here is with the Steelers. The Steelers are a perfect 6-0 against the Chiefs when Roethlisberger starts and finishes a game. Lastly Pittsburgh is a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 road games against a team that is allowing 4.5 or more yards/carry against the run. Give me the Steelers as a juicy underdog here on Sunday evening.

5*

The Eagles and Panthers have identical 4-1 records, and both have been efficient on both sides of the ball in recent outings. The Eagles defense forced the Cardinals to gain 276 of their 307 total yards through the air mostly because they built and early 21-0 lead. The Eagles are ranked in the TOP 10 in almost every major offensive category including # 3 in total offense, #5 in rushing offense, # 9 in passing offense and # 6 in scoring offense. The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Eagles had a dominating performance last Sunday at home against the Cardinals, 34-7. Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz had 4 TD's, 21 of 30 passing for 304 yards and 1 INT. In addition, RB LeGarette Blunt rushed for 74 yards and has been tough rushing the ball this season for the Birds. The 3.5 number provides value on the stronger defensive club in what should be a tight Thursday night game.

5* 

The Bears shouldn't be getting three points in this matchup at home, where they've went toe to toe with two far superior teams earlier this season. The Bears predictably made a switch at QB, and the rookie should give the offense a boost, but he won't have to do too much with the running game likely to dominate this matchup, as it did when the Bears beat the Vikings at home last year 20-10. The Vikings have a solid passing attack, but it hasn't played as well on the road, and they even struggled to move the ball at home last week against the Lions. Dalvin Cook's injury is also a huge loss for this offense. I'll back the Bears here at home on MNF.

5* 

The Chiefs are the league's only undefeated team and they're facing a rookie QB on Sunday night. But this is a great spot for the Texans. KC goes on the road on a short week and banged up on both sides of the ball. The Texans are coming off a dominating home win last Sunday 57-14 and when was the last time the Texans scored over 50 points in a single game. Houston rookie QB Deshaun Watson has been nothing but outstanding in his first 3 starts going 2-1 and that one loss was at New England but lost only by 3-points 36-33. Look for the Texans defense to win this game at home Sunday night. 

5*

Going with the Bengals in this match-up against the Bills. The Bengals are looking like that they are coming together now since they made the change at offensive coordinator. The Bengals defense has been solid this year by ranking 3rd in defense that allows 16.8 points per game. Also, they are ranked 3rd against the pass. The Bills should be ready for a let down after beating the Broncos and Falcons and now playing their 2nd straight road game. Take the Bengals here on Sunday.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK 

The New England Patriots defense is bad and I like TB at home to get us the cash. Tom Brady is on fire and yet the Pats are just 2-2 on the season. They are +5 on the season in turnovers so they've been getting lucky. The Pats are also banged up and on a short week playing on the road. Everyone’s offense gets healthy against this Patriots defense. While I do expect them to get things figured out eventually, I just don’t see it happening on the short week in this game vs. Jameis Winston & the Bucs. Look for WR Jackson and Evans to have big games vs the Pats secondary. Also, the Bucs' defense is pretty good and will generate turnovers.

5* 

Tough to get a read on the Redskins because of how inconsistent they’ve been from week-to-week. What has been consistent is Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs offense. The dynamic duo of Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill have turned the Chiefs into a threat to score on any snap from any spot on the field. They have combined for four touchdowns of between 30 and 75 yards. Defensively, their secondary won’t miss many opportunities to take the ball away from the giving Kirk Cousins as the Redskins struggle away from home. Lay the points with the KC Chiefs on MNF.

5* 

The Steelers are a different team on the road than when they play at home. This is a big divisional game and I like the home team to come out on top as the Ravens are off of a poor game with just 186 total yards last week and 3 turnovers. Steelers just don't have their offense hitting on all cylinders yet and have stayed Under in all three and covered just once. Baltimore has covered the past five meetings. Ravens +3 is the play. The Ravens are being seriously undervalued after their poor showing and I expect a nice bounceback from Joe Flacco. Baltimore is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

5* 

The Bills haven't shown much on offense so far, and Atlanta is very explosive and also playing at home with a tough defense up front and will pressure Bills QB Taylor. The Falcons have so much team speed and playing at home will be too much for Buffalo. The Bills rank 23rd in points scored per drive. Look for Matt Ryan to have a big game and Julio Jones to break out with a big performance.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK 

The Packers are banged up and just played 4 days ago in 90 degree heat.

The Packers defense has struggled against the run this year and I look for a close game here on Thursday night.

 The Bears kept the Steelers in check and being a divisional game I'll take the pts with the Bears here on Thursday night.

5*

The Cowboys were knocked around in Denver last week, but here this is certainly a nice chance to bounce back in all aspects here on MNF.  Look for Dak and Elliott to come up big tonight. With Arizona's David Johnson going down, they are really scrambling to figure things out in the backfield. 

 The Cardinals do not play well on Monday Night Football. 

The Cards are coming off an overtime victory over the Colts in which Arizona's secondary led the way. Dallas struggled against a similarly strong secondary. The difference is that I don’t think the Cards have the ability to run the ball like the Broncos did and Carson Palmer is washed up.

Take the DALLAS COWBOYS to bounce back big on MNF.

5*

The Seattle OL was ripped all week by Pete Carroll. So look for a much-improved performance this week. Russell Wilson has a solid ball-carrier in RB, Chris Carson to keep the Tennessee defense honest as he will get the passing game going and take advantage of a Titans secondary without Safety, Jonathan Cyprien. The Seahawks defense is still very tough and Seattle has a defense that is yielding just 13.0 PPG. The 'dog in this series is 6-0 ATS the L6 meetings. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS the L7 games played in Week 3 while the Titans are 7-22-2 ATS their L31 games played at home and just dont matchup well. We'll go against the public and take this Seattle team plus the pts on Sunday afternoon.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK  

Dallas handled the Giants with rather ease in their season opener, as they completely flustered them on the defensive end. Dallas allowed just 223 yards total in the process and just 3 points against. They should have a field day vs an inexperienced Broncos QB. The Cowboys offensively saw that Dak Prescott is not going to go through any sophomore slumps. Prescott and the offense put up 392 total yards, the 4th most in the NFL in Week 1. He was a perfect 4-0 vs the AFC last year and he rarely turns the ball over. Dallas is one of the most explosive teams on both sides of the ball. They should be able to handle a Denver team that isn't flashy and likely won't be able to sustain any drives.

5*

The Chiefs are very good on both sides on the ball. Andy Reid got his revenge in his third game coaching the Chiefs with a 26-16 win over the Eagles in Philadelphia. My guess is he will always want to beat the Eagles. KC played last Thursday so they'll have a few extra days to prep for this game. The Eagles got banged up vs the Redskins and that game was a lot close than the final score indicated. Reid has his best team yet in Kansas City and they won 44 games in his first four years. They are as good as the team you watched beat New England. Now this isn't quite the same amount of time as a bye week, where Andy Reid is 16-2 ATS coming off a bye. But he is excellent with extra time to prepare. Take the Chiefs here in their home opener.

10*

Both these teams have excellent defenses, but the Broncos lost one of the best defensive coordinators in the league during the offseason and decided to part ways with quality safety T.J. Ward during final cuts. SD also has the better QB by far with Philip Rivers.
Both teams upgraded their O-lines during the offseason, but the Chargers boast a deeper pass rush with Shane Ray sidelined.

The CHARGERS have covered in 5 straight openers and gone 11-3-1 ATS in three-plus years of September outings.
With the unintimidating Trevor Siemian at QB and nice weather in Denver, the Broncos have no business be favored in this game.
Take the SD Chargers with confidence on MNF.

10*

The Eagles are sneakily a contender in the NFC. Their downturn last year was linked to losing Lane Johnson to suspension, and the line will give Carson Wentz plenty of time to move the ball around and he has a solid receiving core. Their weakness heading into the offseason was at cornerback, and Ronald Darby goes a long way towards fixing it. Washington has a big hole to fill on offense after losing their top two WRs and offensive coordinator. I think the Redskins will struggle this year in a major way. Look for Philly to win the battle up front, and for Carson Wentz to enjoy using his new weapons. I'm backing the Eagles here on Sunday.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK 

I like the Patriots to win based on their defense and I think the spread will go up, so I'm okay with laying -3.  When I look up and down the Falcons' six-game win streak, I see they have beat up on some terrible defenses to pad their stats. The Patriots have allowed just 15.6 ppg the entire season. While Tom Brady gets all the credit, it's the defense that has been responsible for covering 15 of 18 games against inflated numbers.

Bill Belichick-coached teams with 2 weeks to prepare is tough to go against.
 Specific areas of the Falcons offense, like their running back usage, will be addressed by Belichick and his staff. The Falcons secondary is very young with an average of 3 years of experience. I think Brady will be able to exploit them and take advantage.
Finally, there's Tom Brady, who should have enough protection against the Falcons' decent pass rush to make plays downfield. I specifically think the matchups over the middle will pay off for the Patriots, and they should find some success running the ball. Atlanta's run defense is not nearly as good as the numbers have made it look in their two playoff games. The Patriots will win Super Bowl 51 and they'll cover the 3 pt spread here too.

Team to score first?

Patriots (-130)

The Pats have scored first in 15 of their 18 games this year.  Most teams defer when they win the coin toss but the Pats like to take the ball first and score on their 1st possession.  With that said I look for ATL to go on defense first if they win the coin toss.

Odds on which team gets more sacks in the Super Bowl:
* New England: 4/5

Both of these teams had 34 sacks during the regular season, but Brady and the Pats like to throw short quick passes in which the Falcons wont have time to put pressure on Brady. Usually when he feels pressure he just throws the ball way. I expect the Pats defense to get more sacks in the game.

 Will the Patriots convert a fourth-down attempt? (Westgate)

Yes +135

Bill Belichick isn't scared to be aggressive and the Pats like to sneak Tom Brady on 4th down and short.  Also, if the Pats are losing late in the game, it will be 4 down territory for New England.

This game will come down to which defense can you trust. The Steelers are a young group that's playing very good team defense at the most important time of the year. Do we really know how good the New England defense is? The Pats have allowed the fewest points in the league per game at 15.6. Sure looks like a defensive powerhouse, in an NFL era of scoring right. In the regular season 7 of the Pats 17 games vs the 5 worst offenses in the league (41.1% of their entire schedule) They had 10 of their 17 games vs the bottom 1/3 of all offenses or 58.8% of their schedule They had 13 of their 17 games vs the bottom 50% of all offenses or 76.4% of their schedule. They faced just 1 team in the top 9, and that was week 1, so in their last 16 games, they have not faced an offense inside the top 10 in points scored per game. They played 5 games with a team that did not have their starting QB, including their game vs Pittsburgh. Pitt should be able to run the ball in this game. The Steelers team are healthy again at the skill positions and come into this game having won 9 straight games! Pittsburgh's defense has been phenomenal in their last 6 road games as they've allowed 310 yards or less in all 6 games. Pittsburgh has faced the tougher strength of schedule this season and the Patriots are in for a war in this one. I do expect the Steelers to win this one outright but I will, of course, grab the points and hopefully the cash after this one is over. Take PITTSBURGH.

5*

Aaron Rodgers burned me big-time last week, but I don't think he can outscore the NFL's top offense in the Georgia Dome on Sunday. Atlanta is very good especially at home and they have great team speed which will be the difference here. Atlanta looked really good last week while handling Seattle in the divisional round. Ryan threw for 338 and three scores with Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman combining for 102 rushing yards and 102 receiving yards. Both backs scored against the Seahawks defense and Atlanta was able to sack Russell Wilson on 3 occasions, including once for a safety. I think the Falcons defense playing at home with their team speed on the turf will be able to slow down Rodgers and the Packers offense. Three of Aaron Rodgers receivers -- Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison -- are seriously banged up and are questionable. That should enable the Falcons to focus on stopping Green Bay's dangerous tight ends and take care of business here at home. Look for the Falcons to come up big here on Sunday afternoon and advance to the Super Bowl. .10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR!

The Steelers throttled the Chiefs early in the season prior to Andy Reid's team going on a bye, and the Chiefs are 10-2 since that blowout loss, dropping two games by just two points each while beating Oakland twice, Denver twice and Atlanta on the road.
 K.C.'s offense has been transformed by the dynamic Tyreek Hill and dependable TE Travis Kelce. Coach Andy Reid's remarkable record with two weeks to prepare -19-2 after a BYE week, including 3-0 postseason and a great KC defense and Special Teams play at home with revenge. The Chiefs take care of the ball and dont make mistakes. Their defense is going to put a lot of pressure on Big Ben knowing he is banged up and not very mobile.
Take the KC Chiefs here on Sunday night.

5*

Ezekiel Elliott ran all over the Packers in the regular-season meeting, and he'll have another big day Sunday in the divisional playoffs. The Cowboys offensive line is that good. The rookie is fresh and recharged after an off week, and his O-line is incomparable. Look for Dez-Witten and Beasley to have big games along with Elliot rushing the ball. In the second half of the season, the Packers have been on fire offensively. They exploded in the second half of their playoff win over the Giants. But defensively, there are still questions about Green Bay and their secondary is not good and they struggle to stop the run. Look for the well-rested Cowboys to benefit from that extra time and feast on the Packers' vulnerable front seven. The GB loss of Jordy Nelson will also hurt the Packers offense. I like Dallas here at home to WIN and COVER on Sunday afternoon.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

We are going to play the red hot Seattle Seahawks behind their tough defense and, make no bones about it, the Atlanta defense is a major weakness. That said, the Seahawks have been moving the ball very well and I just don't see the defense of the Falcons as being capable of stopping them.

The Seahawks have outgained their opponent in six straight games and have a ton of postseason experience. This game won't feel too big for them. The Seahawks are 13-3 ATS as underdogs with QB Russell Wilson under center in his career. HC Pete Caroll is also very good in the underdog spot.

 Based on yardage allowed, the Falcons rank 25th in the NFL on defense while the Seahawks rank 5th in the league! Another concern for Atlanta here is that they haven't played tough competition since their very first game of December.
 Seattle did beat the Patriots in New England earlier this season and they are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season! The Seahawks also won all 4 games this season when facing a team with a winning record and Seattle is 10-2 SU on turf this season!  Take the road dog in this spot with the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS on Saturday.

5*

The Green Bay Packers come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the league and with Aaron Rodgers having fulfilled his guarantee to run the table in the regular season it is not time for them to try and translate that to the postseason. The Green Bay Packers passing game has been incredible over the last six games of the season but now have to take on the stingy Giants secondary who are young and have not been playoff tested yet. Green Bay is a team capable of running the ball quite well and defensively they should not be too worried given how lackluster the Giants have been offensively. Eli is usually good for 2-3 turnovers and I like GB here at home by 7 or more.

5*

The Steelers basically had a bye last week when they rested all of their studs...Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le'veon Bell. They are playing with revenge also when the Dolphins beat them earlier this season. Pittsburgh had New England on deck and were caught looking ahead. That shouldn’t be the case today. I am looking for them to put up a big number here.

The Dolphins defense has been shredded for the most part this year. They have been outgained in 5 of their last 6 games. We have a warm weather team playing in Chilly Pitsburgh this afternoon we the expected temperatures to be in the 15 degree range. Miami starting their backup QB and all of this spells blowout for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh has played especially well this year at Heinz Field, averaging over 28 points per game and going 6-2 with their only losses coming the two top seeds in the league, Dallas and New England, and I expect that hey will continue that success on Sunday.

5*

The Lions have been off the past 3-4 weeks. QB Matthew Stafford’s injured finger has really affected his throwing and their running back is hurt. This number is inflated because of no Theo Riddick (wrist) for the Lions. That's a big deal. Without Riddick, Matt Stafford hasn't had the bailout move that did so well for him and has been regularly stranded on third-down situations. They blew the NFC North without Riddick, losing their last three games. Detroit hasn't covered the spread in its last four -- all without Riddick. Detroit is also winless straight-up and ATS in outdoor road games. Seattle has never lost outright in a postseason game at CenturyLink Field during the Pete Carroll era. With Russell Wilson at QB, the 'Hawks are 28-15-1 ATS at home. I feel like the Lions are going to have plenty of trouble scoring points in this game. Matthew Stafford has clearly been affected by his finger injury, and now he has to go on the road and try and succeed against one of the league's best defenses outdoors in a playoff environment. The Seahawks are 5-0 under HC Pete Carroll in first round playoff games and have won their last 8 straight going back to 2005. I think this matchup favors Seattle in almost every way and they always step up their game play better during the playoffs. The Seahawks have been hit-or-miss on offense this year, but they've averaged 28.4 points in home games and get to face the 32nd-ranked defense here with the Lions. This is my best NFL Play of the Week. 10* SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

This is going to be a low scoring game and I like the Raiders with the better offensive line and FG Kicker. Oakland also has the better offensive athletes. I like Jack DelRio as a coach and I think the public isn't giving the Raiders a shot but they were underdogs for the most of the season and responded well. Oakland hasn’t shown they can thrive in the midst of tumult at the quarterback position. But I see some other aspects of the Oakland machine stepping up this week, keeping the game close, and registering the cover on the road with a reasonable shot at a win. I'm backing the Raiders here PLUS THE POINTS.

5*

You cant just say one team needs to win and bet them. The oddsmakers know all of this and I see it happen every year. People are banking on the Giants sitting a lot of starters. The truth is, the Giants can eliminate the Redskins with a victory, and they don’t have the luxury of sitting guys because of how inconsistent they are offensively. They’ll play hard for 60 minutes, eager to avenge an earlier loss to Washington. These divisional rivals always play close games. Grab the points with the NY Giants here in Sunday late action.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Matt Cassel gets a full week of prep as the Titans' starting quarterback after struggling in relief last week vs. Jacksonville. But the Texans are brimming with confidence after punching their ticket to the playoffs. And with Tom Savage getting his second start, look for his passing to improve and the offense to become more balanced. I also expect Houston's defense to dominate this one and the Texans to keep their confidence and momentum as they go into the playoffs with a win here on Sunday.

5*

This is a HUGE game in the AFC with a lot of playoff implications. The Chiefs lost a winnable game last week, which makes this a must-win scenario at home. I like the Chiefs offense to be able to do enough versus a very tough Broncos defense. Denver’s offense won’t have success against KC’s pass rush. Andy Reid will have his team ready as they rarely have back to back poor games.  CHIEFS big here on Sunday.
 Lay the points.

5*

The Steelers have won and covered in five straight, but I'm not sure I agree with this line with these two teams fighting each other for the AFC North title. Baltimore brings an elite defense into this matchup and has been playing well on offense lately, averaging just under 30 points per game in their last three. Ben Roethlisberger hasn't played that well in recent weeks despite Pittsburgh's win streak, and Baltimore has a defense capable of slowing down Le'Veon Bell. This could turn into a FG battle, and the Ravens have an excellent weapon there as well.

Baltimore has won 5 of their last 7 games, with their losses in that span against the best of the AFC - New England, and the best of the NFC - Dallas, so very interested in grabbing the points this Christmas Day.
That means take the points and the Ravens here on Sunday afternoon.

5*

I'm taking the points with the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday. Vikes HC Mike Zimmer stated it's time to find out who is going to fight. Despite last week's results, the Viking defense is still 3rd best in the league in both passing yards allowed and total yards allowed per game. Get also get Harrison Smith likely returning to bolster the Minn secondary. They've held their opponents to 21 or fewer points in 11 of 14 games (regulation) this season. Both of these divisional teams know each other well and I'm backing the Vikes plus the 7 points here on Saturday afternoon.

5*

Quietly, the Bears have played solid football lately, covering five straight games. I like how this team has competed since Matt Barkley took over at QB. The Redskins are coming off a short week and this is a quick improving Bears pass rush, Kirk Cousins and Washington's offense will struggle enough to keep this within the number. The Bears have covered five straight and now they're getting leading tackler Jerrell Freeman back from suspension. Look for Chicago to have success running the ball against Washington. Also the Redskins will likely will be without top playmaker TE Jordan Reed who is the key to their offense and reminds me of Gronk. Without him I think they will struggle to move the ball and pick up 1st downs. Grab the points with Washington here with our 10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH.

Injuries have cost the Carolina defense this season, in addition to departures. Josh Norman’s absence has really been felt in the secondary, as he will be on the opposite sideline in this game.
 The Redskins return home for this game vs. Carolina. Washington's won its last four games at home and playing great football. Last year, the Redskins were blown out, 44-16, at Carolina by the Panthers, so they'll definitely be looking for some revenge tonight. Take the Washington Redskins on MNF.

5*

The Broncos are now in full desperation mode, as they likely need to win out and also get some help in order to stand a chance of defending their Super Bowl title. Their quest starts Sunday in a rematch with a New England team they have dominated of late. Denver’s meager offense has been the primary culprit in its erratic year, especially in last week’s loss to the Titans. But Denver’s defense historically gives fits to Tom Brady, who might have limited options because TE Martellus Bennett is questionable. Defensively Denver has fared much better and ranks 1st against the pass and 3rd in yards against. Their leader continues to be Von Miller, who decimated the Patriots in the January AFC championship by recording 2.5 sacks and one interception as he was constantly in the Patriots backfield either stopping a running play or harassing Tom Brady on nearly every passing play. Look for the Broncos to come up big at home and I'm backing Denver in this prime motivational spot.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

This is another game with a playoff feel. Marcus Mariota is starting to come into his own. It will be his mobility that’ll give a great defense in Kansas City some fits. The Titans have the best redzone TD efficiency in the league, scoring a TD in 71.4% of their RZ drives, which is led by the third best rushing offense in the league with 144.5 YPG.  Titans also has the better/hotter QB this game.  I think this one comes down to a FG and I'm taking the points with the TITANS here on Sunday afternoon.

5*

The Rams have won three in a row against the Seahawks, with offenses not much better (if at all) than the current group. I consider the firing of Jeff Fisher a net positive in this matchup and maybe firing up the Rams.

 The Seahawks have been held to 12 or less points five times this year, including in their previous matchup with the Rams and in two of their last three games. Russel Wilson threw 5 INT's last game so I do expect him to take better care of the football.

I see the Rams dominating the Seahawks' O-line and keeping this total low with plenty of punts.  Play the UNDER!

5*

The Patriots are looking just fine without the services of Gronk and with their ability to move the ball up and down the field any way they choose it really doesn’t matter how elite the opposing defense is. Tom Brady is leading the New England offense to be top six in the league in both rushing and passing and is not going to be slowing down no matter who is in or out of the lineup. New England is allowing only 17.3 points per game this season and really could be regarded as the best unit on that side of the ball this season. Take the Patriots to get the win and cover in this one as they are the better team in this matchup and now this line has come down to 6 has me licking my chops.

5*

The Saints are sitting at 5-7 and still alive for a playoff spot. New Orleans QB Drew Brees is coming off a tough game where he threw 3 INT's. He normally takes good care of the ball and I expect him and the Saints who have the top ranked offense in the league and 2nd in the league in points to bounce back in a big way on Sunday. The Saints have the top passing offense in the entire NFL averaging almost 320 yards a game and they are scoring almost 30 a game ranking second in the league behind Atlanta. The Saints offense was held in check last week by the Detroit Lions and I do not see that happening again-not two weeks in a row. If the defense can keep Tampa to 20-24 points I think we have a great edge to win this play. Tampa is only 2-4 at home and the Saints have won 8 of the last 9 between the two teams.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Broncos QB Trevor Siemian is reportedly making progress from his foot injury and should play Sunday against the Titans. However, I'd like Denver in this spot, regardless of who is behind center. The Titans have a top-10 offense, but most of their numbers were amassed in a just a couple of games. They have been held to 17 points or fewer four times, and most of their wins have come against weaker competition. The Broncos have one of the leagues top defensive units which is only allowing 192 passing yards a game and have 36 sacks, both of which lead the NFL. While the Titans defense is 21st in takeaways, and 26th in passing. The Titans secondary is also very weak. Take the DENVER BRONCOS in this one.

5*

KC has a very underrated defense and is very good. We always like to be on teams that aren't going to beat themselves, especially in the NFL, and the Chiefs are certainly one of those teams. Since they lost to the Vikings last October (2015) Kansas City has won something like 18 of 21 games. The Chiefs are tough at home and Arrowhead is one of the toughest stadiums to play in, and Kansas City clearly knows the importance of this game if they want to win the AFC West. KC plays smart and doesn't turn the ball over. On the flip-side Oakland is the most penalized team in the league, by far, which is also something that's going to catch up with them. Lastly I also trust Any Reid more than Jack Del Rio and I expect the Chiefs to win by 6 or more tonight at home.

5*

The Colts look like they’ll have the services of Andrew Luck in this game. And while the Jets have played better defensively over the last two weeks, their offense still struggles to find consistency. I think that Indy does have an advantage coming off a longer than usual week, especially as it relates to the health of their injured stars. Luck and Hilton being back at full health is so big for the Colts and the Jets are on the other side of the coin with multiple injuries in their secondary. Indy is far from perfect but they play the kind of style that exposes the weaknesses of the Jets and the normally porous Colt defense is helped by facing a rather unimpressive offense. There isn’t much to play for in New York these days and coming off an emotional week against the Patriots probably puts them at risk for a letdown effort. Trust the team that has the better offense and a much better QB in this Monday night marquee.

5*

This should be a game with a lot of action - Eli Manning vs. Roethlisberger, Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Antonio Brown, with Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell being the x-factor because the Giants continue to not really have anyone at the position that can rival Bell’s production. New York continues to struggle in the running game (only 79.5 ypg – 31st in NFL), but they have done a great job at limiting their opponent’s ability to run as the revamped Giants defense is ranked 5th versus the run thus far this season allowing just 89.1 yards per game. In Pittsburgh I think the Steelers have the better defense, Special Teams and the home field advantage. The Steelers offense would seem to have the edge going into the game, at least on paper and I like them to get the win and cover here on Sunday.

5*

Buffalo Bills are still in the hunt and playing much better. Tyrod Taylor needs to steps up into pocket while continuing his scan of the field - before taking off downfield running. And his 11 TD passes hasn't shown enough to keep teams too concerned about him finding his guys. Taylor is building trust and good faith in his receivers - even though youth and injuries have slowed them down - he has yet to develop that. Sammy Watkins is expected to be back for this game and LeSean McCoy is amped and capable and primed for a big day against a defense that allows 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. Buffalo QB Taylor is going to have to get rid of the ball with a lot of quick throws to avoid that pass rush of the Raiders. The Bills are averaging 25 points per game and have scored at least 25 points in eight of their 11 games. If the Bills continue to protect the ball the way they have, they will have a chance to do some damage on offense. The Raiders defense is far from great as it ranks last in yards allowed per play, 31st in sacks, 23rd in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed. Buffalo has won two in a row following a three-game losing streak. The Bills have been depleted by injuries and suspensions throughout the season, but are starting to get key players back healthy. This is a must win and statement game of the Buffalo and I'll back them plus the points here on Sunday.

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

The Dallas Cowboys, coming off a solid Thanksgiving Day win over the Washington Redskins, and now go on the road to take on the Minnesota Vikings who are coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions after a late INT by Sam Bradford.

The Vikings are sitting at 6-5 on the season right now and have to be a little concerned about recent trends as they have dropped five of their last six overall. Sam Bradford seems to not be panning out in Minnesota just like he hasn’t at every stop in his career and is coming off an absolute stinker of a game against the Lions.  Offensively, there is very little to like with the Vikes. Bradford can connect on short passes well, but thats about it.

The Dallas Cowboys are looking like one of the best teams in the league and with two rookies leading the way for the offense you have to look a little deeper to find out why this team is playing at such an elite level. The Cowboys defense has been excellent this season and very much under the radar as the offense really gets all the credit. They play great defense in the redzone and I expect them to blitz the hell out of Bradford.
 The Dallas offense is excellent as their running game is churning out a league leading 157.3 and the passing game has continued to improve as Prescott gets more experience connecting with Witten, Beasley, and Dez.

Take the Cowboys to get the win and cover in this one as they are the better overall team and with the Vikings offense basically looking nonexistent this should be an easy win for Dallas here on Thursday night.  The Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS this year and I like them to get their 10th spread victory here on Thursday and get us the cash.     

10*

Technically both of these teams are alive in the Playoff hunt, but they’re quickly falling out of the race. Whichever team loses on Monday night might as well turn their attention to next season, and I think that team will be the Packers.

At some point the Packers will start to figure it out on both sides of the ball. GB gave up 515 yards to the Redskins last Sunday so I expect them to be much better vs the Eagles.
They should have also some defensive success against rookie QB Carson Wentz. Like I said last week when we bet against the Eagles in Seattle, Wentz has the worst QB rating since week 5 and has struggled throwing the ball down the field.  Wentz 6 INTs last 6 games
and only 11 TDs on the year with 7 Picks.  Ranked 32 and dead last in the league for QBR.

The Packers enter Week 12 with the 13th-ranked offense averaging 362.7 total yard per game (YPG) and 24.7 points per game (PPG). Their passing game is 10th in league averaging 262.1 YPG, while their rushing game is 19th averaging 100.6 YPG.

 
As for the Eagles, their offense is ranked 19th averaging 340.4 total YPG and 24.1 PPG.

Entering Week 12, Rodgers has completed 259 of 410 passes for 2,761 yards, 25 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, which gives him a 96 passer rating. I like the better QB in a must win game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

5*

Houston is on a short week having played in Mexico on MNF. San Diego is well rested coming off of their BYE week.  SD has the much better QB this game with Rivers and he is coming off a loss and one of the worst games he played in a while throwing 4 INT's.

  All 6 of San Diego’s losses were one possession games.  Texans are only averaging 4.7 yards per play, which is the 2nd worst in the league.  San Diego comes in prepared, rested and they get the WIN on there road here..

10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK!

5*

The most impressive thing is that Atlanta has found a way to win in every way possible, with running the ball, attacking the QB, and even their special teams game. Atlanta has an offense that is virtually impossible to defend.

The Falcons off a BYE and of course are one of the league's premier offenses, leading the league in points scored and net yards per attempt. At home, I think they'll be able to handle a good Arizona defense that hasn't been tested all that much this year.

Carson Palmer has struggled this year and we have a west coast team playing early and the Falcons are rested. Cardinals are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record

Take ATLANTA at home as Julio Jones has a monster game here.

Detroit has trailed in the fourth quarter every game and has pulled out six wins The problem is they don't run the ball anymore (14 yards last wk vs Jax) and the Vikings defense will beat this one-dimension offenses.

The Vikings stopped their free fall last week with a 30-24 win over the Cardinals despite 10 penalties and just 217 yards of total offense. Their defense and special teams accounted for two return TD's to help make up the difference. On Thursday, they will look for revenge against a Lions team that made a 58-yard field goal to force overtime and take a 22-16 win in Minnesota a few weeks ago. Look for the Vikings’ third-ranked defense to disrupt Matthew Stafford here today with the short week.

 Football is a game of adjustments, and playing a team twice in three weeks will yield itself to a very close game. This time however, I think the Vikings, because of their defense, get the win on Thanksgiving afternoon.   5*

This game will be played in Mexico City on a neutral site.  The biggest x-factor is Raiders QB Derek Carr, who has great chemistry with his wideouts and has shown above-average ability in situational football and making great decisions this year.

I think Oakland wins this one by at least a touchdown as they've been great on the road this season going a perfect 5-0. The Raiders' defense has started to round into form and I expect them to beat Houston the way they did Denver with a mauling offensive line that creates running lanes and gives Derek Carr a clean pocket.  5*

Last Sunday we had a top 10* play on the Eagles, but this week we'll go against them. Seattle is a more difficult environment is play in especially for a rookie QB. Since week 5 Eagles QB Carson Wentz has one of the lowest QB ratings in the league. Look for the Seahawks to put a lot of pressure on him. The Eagles have been incredible at home, especially on defense, but on the road is another story where their only win has come at Chicago. Philly is 0-4 ATS on the road. Russell Wilson just played his best game of the season and it came against the best team in the league Sunday night with a win over the Pats. He's apparently healthy again and I expect his upward trend to continue Sunday. Look for Seattle to get the win and cover here on Sunday evening.

10* GOW.

The Bengals are off a tough loss on MNF and also on a short week. Buffalo is now a Top 10 team on the efficiency numbers and coming off of their BYE week. Buffalo has been its own worst enemy, which is why they’re 4-5 and losers of three straight. I think this is a very winnable game for Buffalo as the Bengals are banged up and several players were limited this week in practice.

5*