Washington +6 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this line is disrespect for Washington, but also the PAC 12, which has proven that they were one of the better conferences this year, which hasn’t always been the case.  The PAC 12 has always done well against the Big 10 for whatever reason, and actually Michigan is only 24-43 straight up vs. the PAC 12 and the PAC 12 is 3-1 this year.  It may be relevant, because Michigan just does not really face quality passing teams like Washington.  They may face an efficient passing attack, but nobody that is as good as Washington nor throws as much as Washington.

The story line is that Washington has not faced a defense this good, and Michigan has not faced an offense this good, but the real story should be that Washington faced 6 top tier defenses and went 6-0, and scored 30+ points in 5 of those games.  Michigan really only faced, Alabama, Ohio State, and neither team had an elite passing QB.  Michigan’s average opponent offense ranks 90.58, compare that with Washington’s defense getting to face an average offense ranking 53rd.  

Why is this number so large, and it comes down the the advance metrics, which has Washington’s overall numbers are not as good as Michigan, but there were games where Penix was hurt, and this team was not healthy.  They were much healthier and really dominated Texas, a team that you could argue has a very similar defense to Michigan.  I think Washington is really going to give Michigan’s defense issues, I think Michigan’s offense could control the game with their rushing attack, but I don’t trust McCarthy or Harbough as much as I trust Penix and Deboer.  They have been in many tight games this season, and have found all kinds of ways to win games, including last week when they nearly choked away a victory.  Penix faced Michigan when he was at Indiana and won the game without Deboer as his coach, and Deboer faced Michigan and lost without Penix so there is some familiarity here although not as relevant with different coaches.  I think the referee assignment also will lead to a higher scoring game

Washington/Michigan over 56 2.2% play

Washington +4 5.5% max NCAAF POD

Washington has won all different ways this season, and still have not gotten the respect they deserve.  Texas is getting a ton of respect for beating Alabama way back when, and they navigated their way through the Big 12 after losign in the Red River Rivalry.  Each team had to overcome adversity, but Washington did it without losing, and they did it more impressively in my opinion beating Oregon 2x, winning in poor weather, with injured receivers.  They won with defense when they needed to, and they won with the running game when they needed.  They clearly in my opinion are not a one dimensional team and this is the best offense Texas has faced all year long.  Washington has the better YPP differential against a tougher schedule just by a slim margin and I would say the PAC 12 was better than the Big 12 this season.  We saw Arizona beat Oklahoma, Iowa State lose to Memphis yesterday.  USC's win over Louisville was impressive for the PAC 12 as well so at the end of the day I think this game will be close, and I trust Penix way more than I trust Ewers. 

Alabama +2 4.4% play 

These teams met in 2020, while Alabama was 7.5 point favorite, and now they area  2, 2.5 point dog in the span of 4 years it is a 10 point move and Alabama dominated that game.  Obviously a lot has changed since that game, but lets be honest 10 points in favor of Michigan is a bit crazy.  Michigan has faced a weak schedule this season, and the Big 10 has not looked good in these bowl games - Penn State, and Ohio State both lost to SEC teams as favorites.  Alabama has the better coach, especially with extra time, while Jim Harbough has really struggled in this spot against top 10 teams so numbers aside Alabama clearly has the edge with their coaching staff.

Michigan’s defense ranks 4th, but their average opponent ypp rank is 94th.  I think they are in for a culture shock here facing an Alabama offense that really hit its strides down the stretch has all kinds of ways to beat you with the explosive pass play, the mobile QB, and an offensive line that really improved as the season went on.  This Alabama team is better than the TCU team that beat Michigan a season ago.  The SEC has really dominated the Big 10 in the bowl games and until that changes I really could not lay the points with a Big Ten team as a favorite at this point.

Wyoming -165 5.5% MAX POD

Auburn/Maryland Under 47 2.2% play 

Ole Miss +4.5 2.2% play 

Both teams are excited to be here, and have limited opt outs. Penn State had 6 players declar for the NFL draft that are traveling, but I question whether or not they will play a lot in this game.  James Franklin the last two times he has faced the SEC in a bowl game has lost to teams they arguably should have beaten.  In 2018 they were 4.5 point favorites over Kentucky in the bowl game they had a massive ypp differential edge over the regular season, but trailed 27-7 before making the final respectful losing 27-24.  In 2021 season they were a 3.5 point dog to Arkansas, and lost 24-10.  People don’t like hearing it, and it seems square to say, but the SEC is far better than the Big 10.  They have backed it up going 66-35 in bowl games +5.6 points per game. After last night’s no show by Ohio State I don’t have any confidence in the Big Ten, and feel like the conference might have been down this season quite a bit despite the praise it has gotten. 

Lets get to the match up, because both teams had similar seasons where they had a great season, but could not get past the top 2 teams in their conferences.  Ole Miss losing to Alabama & Georgia, and Penn State losing to Ohio State and Michigan.  Ole Miss gets to face an offense that has had its struggles this year ranking 73rd in ypp, and when they faced a non top 50 offense they went 6-0.  Ole Miss has to face a top defense, but looking at the defense from Penn state their average opponent rushing ypc is 83rd, there average opponent ypp offense is 72.  Ole Miss went 2-2 and put up 38 and 37 points, but struggled vs. Georgia and Alabama.  We could see the same struggles here today, but it’s worth noting both Alabama and Georgia have top tier offenses something Penn State can not claim on a consistent basis. 

Penn State are bullies.  Their #s are inflated, their ATS numbers are inflated.  James Franklin loves to lay it on late, and if there is an opportunity for him to cover this spread he will do it.  Penn State going up against top offenses and there has only been 3 has gone 1-2, with their lone win coming against West Virginia before they were a top offense to open the season.  To Me this should be a tight game throughout, and I think Ole Miss has a shot to win the game in the end. I think Ole Miss is clearly in the weight class of Penn State and these games have not gone well for Franklin in the past.

Ohio State +1 5.5% NCAAF POD 

Memphis / Iowa State Over 57 3.3% play 

Both teams have opt outs/injuries in the secondary that will really hurt their defense. For Iowa State they lose an NFL Corner in TJ Tampa, and their starting Safety Malik Verdon, and Memphis pass first offense, which will have a full compliment of weapons and a very experienced Seth Hanigan should have no problem putting up points on Iowa State in the LIberty Bowl, a place they are very familiar with

Memphis defense is already suspect, and they too have issues in the secondary with 3 guys missing this game including starting S CAmeron Smith, a big blow to this defense.  I expect Iowa State to really play free and they are the #1 explosive offense and really showed down the stretch what this offense can look like next year. 

Kentucky +3.5 1.1% Free play

Clemson against top run defenses this year 1-3.  kentucky ranks 16th in ypc and 42nd in rushing success rate.  Clemson should maybe not be favored in this game as they have many players on defense opting out.  Kentucky a well coached team, and when going up agaisnt a bad offense, which Clemson is as they rank 99th in ypp have gone 4-1.  I think Kentucky has a chance to win outright. 

Oklahoma / Arizona Under 62.5 3.3% play 

Kansas State -2.5 2.2% play 

I think Kansas State will be motivated to get a win here despite the opt outs. NC State has a few key opt outs as well, and it’s not like they have an offense that can run away with a game.  Kansas State is well coached, and I doubt NC State can really take advantage of their weakness which is vs. the run, as NC State ranks 89th in ypc, and 107th in rushing success rate.  Kansas State is stout in pass defense, and has the ability to force turnovers too, and Brennan Armstrong is always good for a couple of those. 

I’m more excited to see the highly touted QB Avery Johnson take over at QB for Kansas State.  I think he will really stretch this NC State defense with his legs, and it will make for a very entertaining game, but at the end of the day. I just think Kansas State played in the gfar tougher conference and has better #’s against tougher competition, and after the last two Bowl seasons facing an SEC team they finally get to face a weaker opponent out of the ACC.  Dave Doeren gets a ton of credit at NC State, but if you ask me he’s kind of underperformed, and their last 3 bowl games have gone 0-3. 

Rutgers -117 3.5% play 

BC/SMU Under 49.5 3.3% play 

Oklahoma State +110 2% play 

usc +7 -120 2.5% play

Two offensive minded coaches going head to head with key opt outs.  Louisville will be without their two best offensive players in Thrash & Jordan, which are two huge losses.  I don’t see Jack Plummer as the type of guy that can take advantage, and USC did face Plummer a season ago so there is some familiarity.  

USC obviously not the season they wanted, but I think they are a bit desperate for a win, and when I say “they” I mean the coaching staff and Lincoln Riley.  They really don’t have the luxury of cruising and looking to next year.  They need to win and with 20 opt outs it’s prove it time.  I think the offense will be just fine, and that means this spread is too much in my opinion when you factor in the ACC has long had problems against the PAC 12.  The PAC 12 since 2010 is actually 22-4 vs. the ACC, and USC FACED 4 TOP 15 teams while Louisville only faced 2.  Their common opponent was Notre Dame, but USC -5 TO margin while Louisville +4.  

Lincoln Riley has got to put a good showing here.  This game is on the west coast, and I don’t care who the QB is he typically will have his offense ready.  Louisville’s defense has been good, but when facing a top offense they have gone 3-2 with only 1 game covering this spread which was the game against Notre Dame where they were +4 TO margin.

West Virginia -6.5 2.2% play 

Kansas -10 3.3% play 

UNLV has faced three top tier offenses this year and have gone 0-3 in those games losing by 24, 28, and 6.  I think Kansas can put up a ton of points in this one, and will be motivated to do so. Kansas has not won a bowl game since 2008, and lost last year by 3 points to a much better team in Arkansas from the SEC.  Here they get to face UNLV from the Group of 5, and while UNLV has had a great season under Barry Odom, much like the Mountain West Conference Championship game they are just happy to be here.  Kansas should be motivated to win, and their offense is elite ranking top 25 in both passing and rushing, and explosive plays.  Look for them to cover this spread. 

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I think this game offers a ton of variance to be honest, when you have two teams that are very similar in the fact that they play fast, rely on explosive plays have good quality mobile QBs, with defenses that really struggle ranking outside the top 100 in success rate, while the offenses are both in the top 50 in success rate offense.  Both offenses struggle with turnovers ranking 102nd, and 103rd in % of possessions ending in turnovers, but I like Georgia Tech who has been better at forcing turnovers.  They also seem to have the better rushing offense when you factor in strength of schedule.  Overall these teams are very much even, and Georgia Tech proved under Key that this team could play with anyone.  They also had some head scratching losses along the way, Boston College and Bowling Green, but played right with Ole MIss and Georgia.  I think Georgia Tech will be motivated to win a bowl game, while UCF and Malzahn who is only 3-6 straight up in bowl game.

Northern Ill +3 2.2% play

97% of the money is on Arkansas State on side and money line. Nobody thinks Northern Illinois can win this game, and they are putting their faith in Arkansas State’s head coach Butch Jones?  I just don’t understand it to be honest, and I’m happy o take the +3 with Northern Illinois as the Sun Belt Conference has not looked great this bowl season, which is the conference Arkansas State is from.

Northern Illinois has lost 7 straight bowl games, but they have an experienced QB leading the way behind a top 25 rushing attack.  More importantly is Northern Illinois defense, which ranks 31st in ypp, but 10th in QB rating defense, and 14th in passing success rate defense.  Arkansas State vs. top 50 pass defenses went 0-4 getting outscored 14, 10, 34, and 73, and throw in their loss to Troy who is a top 50 success rate defense, and they’re 0-5.  Northern Illinois ranks 50th in success rate defense.  I think Northern Illinois will be able to control this game as Arkansas State ranks 109th in defense ypc. 

Bowling Green +3.5 2.2% play / Bowling Green +150 0.3% play 

This game to me with a total under 40 seems like it’s going to be a battler. I can’t find many advantages for the Minnesota Gophers who somehow got worse on offense this year.  Minnesota will turn to Cole Kramer, a Sr. QB who barely played at all during his time here, which probably tells you all you need to know about his talent, when the QB play the last two years has been bad.  Minnesota will have a hard time protectin him as Bowling Green is 9th in sack %, while Minnesota just 84th in protecting their QB.  Bowling Green 20th in passing success rate, and they also check in 46th in defensive ypc. 

I know PJ Fleck will be trying to motivate his team as a 5-7 team, and he will be out there running around with his tie like an idiot, but I really feel like the ship might be sinking for him.  Bowling Green beat Minnesota in 2021, and they had a much worse team -0.6 ypp differential compared to Minnesota was +0.6, a net difference 1.2 per play.  Bowling Green this season -0.1 vs. Minnesota -0.5, which is in favor of Bowling Green.  Clearly a big game for Bowling Green for recruiting in Detroit, and wouldn’t it be amazing to knock off their second P5 team of the season having beaten Georgia Tech?  They also played Michigan out of the Big Ten, which is not even something Minnesota can say.  They hung with Michigan through 2 quarters trailing just 14-6 at the half.   Bowling Green also #1 in turnovers forced per possession, which could be a problem for a Minnesota offense that ranks 127th in success rate.

Air Force +115 3% play

James Madison 11-1 had a fantastic season going up against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.  Service Academy's are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 bowl games, and we are getting Air Force in a buy low spot after how they closed the season.  Service Academies always ready to go in bowl games, and I can't say the same for James Madison who has 8 transfers, and their two best players on the OL and DL injured for this game.  Air Force has a top 25 rushing attack, and James Madison who is going to be missing players on the DL was one of the best run defense, but they only faced one top 50 rushing offense, and they lost that game against App State.

Air Force also sports a top defense ranking 20th in ypp defense, they are consistent against the run and pass, and rank 36th in success rate defense.  I think overall James Madison will bring the effort, but in the end Air Force will win with experience and the fact that James Madison had to hire five temporary coaches just to prepare for this game after losing their HC Curt Cignetti is a major red flag. 

Utah State -1 2.2% oplay 

Northern Ill +3 2.2% play

97% of the money is on Arkansas State on side and money line. Nobody thinks Northern Illinois can win this game, and they are putting their faith in Arkansas State’s head coach Butch Jones?  I just don’t understand it to be honest, and I’m happy o take the +3 with Northern Illinois as the Sun Belt Conference has not looked great this bowl season, which is the conference Arkansas State is from.

Northern Illinois has lost 7 straight bowl games, but they have an experienced QB leading the way behind a top 25 rushing attack.  More importantly is Northern Illinois defense, which ranks 31st in ypp, but 10th in QB rating defense, and 14th in passing success rate defense.  Arkansas State vs. top 50 pass defenses went 0-4 getting outscored 14, 10, 34, and 73, and throw in their loss to Troy who is a top 50 success rate defense, and they’re 0-5.  Northern Illinois ranks 50th in success rate defense.  I think Northern Illinois will be able to control this game as Arkansas State ranks 109th in defense ypc.

Georgia Tech +5 2.2% play / Georgia Tech +180 1%

I think this game offers a ton of variance to be honest, which is why I also like the money line here. When you have two teams that are very similar in the fact that they play fast, rely on explosive plays have good quality mobile QBs, with defenses that really struggle ranking outside the top 100 in success rate, while the offenses are both in the top 50 in success rate offense.  Both offenses struggle with turnovers ranking 102nd, and 103rd in % of possessions ending in turnovers, but I like Georgia Tech who has been better at forcing turnovers.  They also seem to have the better rushing offense when you factor in strength of schedule.  Overall these teams are very much even, and Georgia Tech proved under Key that this team could play with anyone.  They also had some head scratching losses along the way, Boston College and Bowling Green, but played right with Ole MIss and Georgia.  I think Georgia Tech will be motivated to win a bowl game, while UCF and Malzahn who is only 3-6 straight up in bowl game.

Georgia Tech vs. bad success rate defenses went 3-1 averging over 36 points per game. Their lone loss was the odd game to BC where they turned the ball over a bunch. UCF vs. bad SR defenses went 1-2 losing to Kansas and Baylor, before beating an inconcsinstent Houston team to close out the season. AGainst bad run defense teams, Georgia Tech went 2-1, while UCF went 1-2, with their lone win being a miselading game against Cincinnati. These two met last year, where Georgia TEch lost on the road, but outgained UCF by 105 yards, and Key was not the head coach at the time. I trust Key getting his players up for this game, and will expect them to be excited. This is a team that played right with Ole MIss and Georgia, and Louisville and wins over North Carolina and Miami. UCF's most impressive win was against Oklahoma State at home in a game Oklahoma State was off an upset over Oklahoma, which was a huge win and a clear let down spot.

Old Dominion -130 3.5% play 

UCLA -4.5 2.2% play 

Boise will play the best defense they have faced all season long against UCLA.  Boise with a third string QB, a first time starter going up against a defense that is not only top 30 against the run, they are top 10, and they also have a top 30 pass defense, 16th in sack %, and top 25 in turning opponents over.  Boise played just 1 team in teh top 50 in run defense, and that team was Air Force a team they beat, but was a bit is always a bit off in their rankings.  They went 0-3 vs. top 30 pass defenses.  Boise got dominated by the PAC 12 opponent in week 1, and UCLA dominated on the road against San Diego State from the Mountain West. 

Clearly the PAC 12 took huge strides this year and was a lot better going 10-1 vs. the Mountain West as I feel the MW was down.  PAC 12 in the previous 2 years went 12-8 for example.  Not only did the PAC 12 win they dominated outsourcing on average by 3 TDs.  Boise has had some transfers, and while they played great down the stretch and won the conference they have no WR’s, and their HC got the job they were fighting for, I don’t sense there will be as much fight in Boise here.  UCLA should dominate.

Georgia Southern -3 3.3% play

I think there is some value here with Georgia Southern after they finished the year 0-4 straight up and ATS they come limping into the bowl game, but Georgia Southern had nothing to play for their last 4 games, and play in a far better conference in the SUn Belt than the MAC.  Ohio has been hit very hard by the transfer portal as well with their top 2 QB, RB, and WR and best LB all missing this game.  They'll be down to their 3rd string QB, and I think they'll face a Georgia Soutehrn team that is fully focused.  Ohios defense has been great ranking 12th in ypp allowed, but they have faced an average 97th ranked ypp offense.  Their SR defense ranks 6th, but they have faced an average 100.5 SR offense here they face #37, which is by far the best offense.  Georgia Southern actually ranks top 50 in passing and rushign SR.  Against the only 3 top 90 SR offenses Ohio went 1-2.

Navy +3 5.5% pod

Under 47.5 2.2% play 

Florida St -102 2.5% play

Over 53.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Boise State -2.5 3.3% play

It is very clear that the coaching change for Boise State made a dramatic difference, and I think it will continue here as Spencer Danielson is interviewing for the HC job, and it’s very evident the players love him.  Boise State lost 2 or 3 games that could have easily gone the other way, and I just feel like they are playing their best football right now.  UNLV has had a great season with a win or a loss they should be feeling good, but Boise State has faced the tougher schedule, and arguably has the better #’s although it’s pretty even.  This game is in Vegas, but Boise State is very much used to traveling here in the past and their fans travel extremely well.

Both teams come in with top 30 YPP offenses, and are primarily a run first team at roughly 58% of their plays being runs.  Boise is by far the better rushing team ranking 7th in rushing success rate, while UNLV ranks 99th.  Defensively against the run Boise 72nd, vs. UNLV who is 58th, but Boise has gone up against an average opponent run defense ranking 48th, while UNLV opponent coming in at 70.8.  I think Boise can control the run game and they have the best back in the game in Ashton Jeanty, while Taylon Green at QB also offers a rushing threat.  In conferenc eplay UNLV is only +.17 yards per carry, while Boise State is +1.88 ypc.  UNLV was outgained on the ground only 3x this season going 1-2, while their win against Air Force they had to come from behind as they trailed Air Force 24-7.

Over 55.5 3.3% play 

Toledo -7 2.2% play 

The first meeting was a home game for Miami Ohio, and they trailed 21-3 at the half, ultimately losing 21-17, but they were on the road and Miami Ohio had their QB in that game.  Gabbert lost of the season 4 games ago, and his replacement Aveon Smith has not looked good and has progressively gotten worse over his 4 games as more and more tape is available.  Smith goes up against his toughest challenge so far facing Toledo who has a top 20 pass defense, top 25 run defense, and top 30 sack rate, while Miami Ohio ranks 101st in ypc, 111th in success rate, and 101st in protecting the QB.  Smith threw 2 INT in his last game.  Toledo went 3-1 against top defenses this year, and amazingly all 4 games were on the road while their lone loss was by 2 points to  Power 5 opponent to open the year, which was their only loss. 

Miami Ohio’s defense is what should keep them in this game, but overall they haven’t faced many top offenses.  Toledo ranks 15th in yards per play, and has been balanced offensively ranking 25th in rushing success rate and 26th in passing success rate.  They are also 14th in protecting the QB.  Toledo in their lone two games vs. top offenses went 0-2.  Both teams played similar schedules of opponents, but Toledo +1.6 yards per play differential compared to MIami Ohio at +0.6 yards per play.  Toledo will have the incentive to put points and not take foot off if they get out to an early lead like the last time these two met. 

Washington +10 2.2% play / Washington +300 0.3% bonus

Oregon was a 3.5 point under dog on the road against Washington earlier in the season, and now they are a 10 point favorite on a neutral, which is more than a 10 point move, and Washington has not lost a game.  This is just bonkers to me and I understand Washington has not looked great and has been close to losing a bunch of times, but they have consistently found different ways to win games when some part of their team was not going well the other part turned it up.  We saw it from the defense in their road game at Oregon State.

Bottom line this is an inflated price based on recent results.  Washington has actually played the tougher schedule any way you look at it, and what’s not showing up is the last 3 games where Oregon is getting a ton of credit Washington played at USC and at Oregon State, while not only did Oregon get those two games at home, but they got them the week after Washington played them, and the week after they had dream crushing losses.  Oregon State was still in the mix to get to the PAC 12 title game, and USC the same as we saw Caleb Williams crying in the stands.  There is also this notion that Penix is injured, but I haven’t seen any hints of that with his arm at all.  Washington has a very good pass defense, which is what Bo Nix likes to do.  Although they won the first game they definitely got out played and that should allow them to make some adjustments for this game.  Should be a good one as the last two games have been decided by 3 points in favor of Washington.

New Mexico St +10.5 3.3% play 

Iowa State +10 2.2% play

South Carolina +7.5 2.2% play 

Florida State -6.5 2.2% play

Jordan Travis was a devastating loss to this FSU team that is still undefeated.  I think the team is mentally strong and rallies around each other.  We saw it in the game last week where they just went on a run the rest of the game after losing Travis.  Overall this is a mismatch when you factor in Florida is 131st in ypp defense, 125th in rushing defense, and the one thing Florida has going for them is their offense and passing game behind Graham Mertz, but Mertz is out with a collarbone.  I think the loss of Mertz is a bigger deal for this single game tha the loss of Travis.

I think Travis’ replacement in 4th year Tate Rodemaker is ready to go for this game in the swamp, a game that FSU can rely on their defense and rushing offense to get the win by a TD or more.  Florida -1 yard per play this season, and that was with an efficient Graham Mertz, 19th in QB rating running the show. Florida State is +1.7 yards per play, and have already proven they can beat SEC teams.  They beat Florida last year, they beat LSU last year and this year, and they’ll have motivation to prove they still belong in the college football playoff without Travis by beating an SEC team on the road by double digits.

Minnesota +3 2.2% play 

San Jose +125 3% ML Dog of the Week

UNLV has no motivation other than a 10th win, which they’ll get two more games after this game to accomplish as they’ll host Boise State for the Mountain West Title regardless.

With that aside I like this matchup for San Jose State as UNLV is a pass first team, andt hat’s the strength of this defense which ranks 49th in QB defense and that has come against a great schedule of opposing QB’s ranking 42nd in QB rating.  San Jose STate does not turn the ball over ranking 13th in % of possessions ending in TO’s, which is important, because UNLV is +10 TO margin in their 9 win, and San Jose State just does not turn the ball over.  San Jose State is also great in 3rd down offense ranking 23rd as they have a very balanced offense ranking 32nd in success rate, and top 60 in both passing and rushing.  UNLV on the other hand is very much one dimensional ranking 104th in rushing success rate, and 19th in passing success rate. UNLV has not faced many top passing defense this year so it’s a major step up for this group.  Meanwhile they also haven’t faced many quality passing offenses this year

A big difference in strength of schedule.  UNLV got Wyoming at home and got Air Force at the right time the last two games, while San Jose State had USC, oregon State, road game at Toledo the best team in the MAC, Air Force at the wrong time, a road game at Boise.  San Jose State’s average opponent ypp differential was a positive 0.13 compared with UNLV -0.45, San Jose State actually managed +0.7 compared to UNLV +0.5.  When you factor in the schedule and the luck of playing certain teams at certain times, and the overall match up advantage I like San Jose State to win this game outright.

Kentucky +8 2.2% play 

Kentucky has faced a far tougher schedule the fact will be are they motivated here at all against a rival they have beaten 4 straight times, while Louisville wants this game to keep things rolling into the ACC Championship.  Jeff Brohm knows how important this game is, but he knows it won’t be easy.  While the ACC has actually gone 4-2 this year against the SEC I still believe this will be a close game.  Kentucky has only lost by double digits to 3 top 10 teams, Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri.  Is Louisville in that category?  I say NO.  

Louisville against good run defenses, which Kentucky certainly has ranking 14th in ypc, and 28th in rushing success rate defense.  Louisville has struggled to win with margin against teams that are good at stopping the run.  Against teams in the top 50 in run defense they have gone 3-1, but their wins have been by 7, 3, and 13 vs. Notre Dame due to +4 TO day.  Jack Plummer is ok passing the ball, but he’s not a difference maker much like Devin Leary on the other side of the ball who has very similar #’s.  Louisville also very reliant on explosive plays will go up against Kentucky who is 16th in explosive plays allowed.  Against top 50 explosive play allowed defenses Louisville has average 4 points less, against top 25 in 3 games they have averaged 6 points less than their season average.

Ohio State +3.5 3.3% play 

Ohio State 9 point favorite and 6.5 point favorite have moved all the way to a 3.5 point under dog which is a 10 point move in 2 years. What has Ohio State done to deserve that type of move?  They have gone undefeated this year.  Of course they are doing it a different way than in the past, and that is with their defense.  I like the fact that the running game is healthy going into this game, and Ohio State has been tested on the road in the game against Notre Dame, which honestly could have gone either way, but they are coming into this game better than they were going into the Notre Dame game because of that experience.

For Michigan, what is different that is giving them a 10 point line move here? They are also undefeated, and have dominated Ohio State the last two years, but they are without Jim Harbough’s leadership on the sideline.  The team has rallied in recent weeks, but we have seem struggles against Maryland, and JJ McCarthy’s reluctance to throw.  The Michigan team has faced a far less schedule when you look at Michigan their average opponent has a YPP differential of -0.23, while Ohio State has better ypp vs. a tougher opponent +0.34.  The average opponent success rate for Michigan is 74.13, while Ohio State is 60.14th in the county.  This year’s Michigan team is identical to last year’s Michigan team.  The numbers of the players with the exception of their HC on the sideline.  I think Ohio State has planned for it, and while Ohio State’s #’s are similar too the biggest difference is their defense.  Last year ranked 43rd in QB rating defense, this year #1.  Their overall success defense ranks 7th against a tough opposing schedule of SR defenses ranked 58th on average last year they were 4th, but vs. 80th ranked.  Their 3rd down defense is #2, and their rushing success rate defense ranks 8th.  I think Ohio State’s defense is much more equipped to deal with Michigan’s offense than they were in year’s past and statistically there has not been as much drop off with Ohio State’s offense 

UTSA +3.5 3.3% play

"Nobody will think we can win, and we'll be the underdog on the road," UTSA coach Jeff Traylor said. "Looking forward to that."

UTSA has the better overall numbers, and an extra day of rest/preparation, but will be on the road.  I think these two teams are pretty even, and UTSA is actually the better team since Frank Harris returned healthy at QB.  To me he will be the best player on the field Friday, a mobile QB, an offense that plays with pace will give the stout Tulane defense issues as they are 21st in tempo in the country.  Tulane has a great QB in Pratt as well, but this team even at 10-1 has under achieved all year.  They rank 106th in success rate pass defense, 103rd in rushing success rate, which are two huge holes to fill against a great team like UTSA that was used to fighting for conference championships.  The teams are even, the coaches are even, and I think it sets up for a close game decided by a field goal.

Nebraska -130 3.5% play 

Iowa State +7.5 3.3% play 

Texas seems to be feeling the pressure of getting into the college football playoff in my opinion.  They have won 4 of their last 5 games by 7 points or less, and are expected to win by more than a TD on the road at night against an Iowa State team that has beaten the Longhorns in 3 of their last 4 meetings.  Iowa State has a top 50 pass and run defense, which has given Texas issues this season where they are 0-2 ATS in Big 12 play losing outright to Oklahoma, and nearly to Kansas State.  They turned the ball over 6x in those two contests, and Iowa State ranks top 50 in both offensive and defensive TO % per possession.

I don’t trust Texas and Quin Ewers, and now he will be without his top RB Weapon Jonathan Brooks who was lost for the season a week ago.  I expect this to be a very tense close game, and I give the edge to Matt CAmpbell who is 12-4 ATS as a home dog at Iowa State.

Washington / Oregon St Over 62 2.2% play 

Washington +105 2.5% play

78% of the money on Oregon State, and I haven’t been able to find anyone on the undefeated Washington team.  Washington certainly has holes particularly in their run defense, which is why they are getting disrespected here.  When we look at Oregon State they arguably have even more holes in their pass defense, which is a horrible match up against Washington.  Washington’s defense really showed me something in the second half against Utah shutting them out, and it was the defense that got them the win.  The week before against USC, it was the rushing attack for Washington that got them the win with Dillon Johnson rushing for 256 yards.  The last two weeks against top tier PAC 12 opponents they found different ways to win, which to me is showing they are more of a complete team than they are getting credit for.  This was 24-21 final last year at Washington, but Oregon State’s pass defense is worse than it was a season ago against worse competition.  Last year they ranked 13th in QB Rating against an average opponent ranking 51st.  Oregon State has not faced any prolific passing attacks all year, Washington State is the closest team, passing it 65%, but they rank outside the top 50, and hung 38 points, 422 yards 4 TD and 0 INT.  Arizona another good passing attack with a backup QB in Fiftita threw for 275 yards on 32 attempts, 3 TD and 1 int.

Kansas / Kansas State Under 58 1.65%

Iowa -150 3.5% play

Tenn +10 -120 2.4% 

Maryland / Michigan Under 50 2.2% play

Weather forecasts call for windy conditions, which is not good news for Marylands offense.  Michigan has Ohio STate on deck, and we saw them really take the air out of the ball in the second half against Penn State a week ago.  They are amontg the slowest in pace in the nation, and will run the ball a ton here.  Maryland is top 25 in explosive plays allowed, and will know what's coming so I expect they'll be able to slow things down a bit, and 50 points is a ton given the situation.

Memphis +8.5 2.2% play

Memphis is still live in the AAC Conference Title race, and this is a massive game at home against two top 30 offenses.  Memphis actually has the better offense and QB, and they're at home getting over a TD, where they take care of the ball.  SMU vs. a top 50 offense this season is 1-2, while they beat a similar North Texas team 45-21, that game was at home, and Memphis actually went on the road and beat North Texas.  Memphis lost to Tulane by 10 (-2 TO), and Missouri by 7 (-1 TO) both are to teams, and Memphis played both games tight.  SMU's defense ranks among the bets, but I don't think they are nearly as good as their ranking.  Even when Memphis loses at home it is a close game.  The last time they lost by more than a TD at home before their game against Tulane was 2016.

Army +3.5 3% / Army +145 0.3% 

Situationally this spot favors Army who had an easier game last week against Holy Cross.  Coastal had a tough game against Texas State, and they have a massive game on deck back at home against undefeated James Madison who is ranked in the top 25.  Army desperate for a win and won’t play for 2 weeks against Navy, a game the hope they are fighting for a Bowl berth and the Commander N Chief Trophy.

This was a meeting last season when Coastal had all off season to prepare for Army’s offense as it was the first game of the year.  That’s not the case this year, and this Coastal Carolina team is not as good as last year ranking 81st vs.running and defending the run compared to last year when they ranked 59th and 66th.  Army’s #’s look far worse, but that’s because they have had a much tougher schedule with 3 power 5 opponents on their scheduled compared to only 1 a season ago.  This was a back and forth 3 point game for most of the game a year ago before Coastal punched in a a TD with 3 minutes to go to go up 10 at home.  This game a road game, and I mentioned the favorable spot for Army.

Louisville / Miami Under 46.5 1.65%

South Florida +15 2.2% play 

Ole Miss +11 2.2% play 

Col State -3 -115 3.5 % play 

Auburn / Arkansas Over 48 2.2%

Arkansas -2.5 3.3% play 

Arkansas seemed to have found something in their bye and with the new OC.  It was a 5.5% max play winner a week ago, and this team needs to win out to get to a bowl game.  Raheim SAnders is as healthy as he has been all year, and had 18 carries for 103 yards against Florida.  He makes KJ Jefferson better, and Jefferson is a guy I have a ton more trust in than the Auburn QB’s particularly on the road. 

When you look at Arkansas' schedule it has been brutal.  So much that this is only their 2nd home game in the SEC.  Their road games at Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU< and A&M on neutral has to be one of the toughest schedules this season.  Auburn meanwhile had road games against Cal and Vanderbilt.  I look for Arkansas to try to avenge their only SEC home loss and continue the momentum.  Auburn’s 5 wins have come against opposing defense that rank on average 110th (ypp + success rate), and their 4 losses have come against an average defense ranking 50.5, and that includes LSU who is outside the top 100 in both categories.  Arkansas ranks 60th in ypp, and 38th in success rate.  They have a major advantage on their defensive line, while Auburn ranks 117th in sack % allowed, Arkansas is 5th at sack %.  A very bad combination to have on the road against a hungry Razorback team.

Tenn -1 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

Missouri in a major hangover spot here, and their head coach even admitted that they emptied the tank left it all out on the field against Georgia, but came up short.  Missouri will go back home and welcome in Tennessee, a team who got to cruise and play just a half of football against Uconn.  Tennessee is the better team, and based on what I have seen I trust them on the road.  They completely out played Alabama on the road in the first half, but couldn’t hold on, but I think we see a different situation here at Missouri, a team they smacked 66-24 last year.

Missouri will also have a banged up Luther Burden who is the star and the key to their offense at WR.  He’ll likely give it a go, but won’t be close to 100%.  Tennessee is just a really good team when you look at the numbers I don’t really see a glaring weakness that Missouri can take advantage of.  They don’t turn the ball over, and MIssouri does not force turnovers.  They have a top 20 special teams unit.  They have the better third down offense and defense, better rush offense and defense, the better coach, and the fresher team.  Tennessee does have a look ahead to Georgia, but that game won’t matter unless they win this one, and who knows what happens as Georgia hosts Ole Miss later that night.

Navy/UAB oVER 53.5 2.2% PLAY 

Utah +8 2.2% play 

New Mexico State +4.5 2.2% play

Jerry Kill and New Mexico State clearly not getting enough respect in the market.  They have a great match up here today as good running teams travel, and their 11th ranked rushing success rate offense goes up against Western Kentucky’s 127th rushing success defense.  Western Kentucky on the flip side love to pass the ball all over the yard, and rely on explosive plays, but New Mexico State’s defense ranks 42nd in explosive plays allowed, and the strength of their defense has been against the pass where they rank 54th in QB rating defense, and #60 in sack %.  I think they can come up with enough stops, take care of the ball to keep this game to a field goal or win the game on the road.  The last two teams with a top 50 rushing attack that Western Kentucky faced both beat Western Kentucky and rushed for 252 and 323 yards.

Arizona / Colorado Under 55.5 2.2% play

Wake Forest +115 3% play 

I like the spot for Wake Forest who is desperate for a win, and has played well in home games this year going up against a very satisfied NC State team after beat Miami and Clemson in back to weeks, but at home.  Wake Forest has an extra two days to prepare, has a good defense ranking 41st in success rate, and this is a low total.  NC State got their 6th win of the season last week, and are likely less motivated going back on the road where they have not played well.  This is an offense that scored 3 at Duke, 24 at Virginia, and 24 at Connecticut.  They rank 110th in success rate offense, and haven’t found much success all year long running it 99th, or throwing it ranking 110th, while Wake has a top 50 success rate pass and run defense.  To make things even worse for NC State that seemed like they were gaining momentum offensively, their QB MJ MOrris has decided to red shit and sit out, and NC State will go back to Brennan Armstrong.

Boise State +3 2.2% play 

Alabama -3 2.2% play

I'll back the more complete team at home with revenge here.  LSU' sdefense ranks 105th in ypp defense, and they struggle at times vs. teh run and pass ranking outside the top 90 in both form an efficiency perspective and success rate.  LSU also ranks 120th in explosive plays allowed, which is key, because Jalen Milroe will be able to take advantage of one of his strengths, which is the deep pass.  The weakness of the Alabama offense is their OL, and I don't think LSU can take advantage as they rank 79th in defensive sack %. 

Washington -138 3% play

Utah State -2.5 3.3% play

San Diego State is a bad football team.  They lost 0-6 to a bad Nevada team last time out and are -1.6 ypp on the season compared to Utah STate who is also 3-5, but +0.5 ypp vs. a tougher schedule.  Utah State top 60 in ypp on offense and defense while San Diego State is outside the top 100 in both.  Utah State took James Madison and Fresno to the wire.  San Diego State ranks 126th in success rate, and will go up against Utah STate who is 5th in seconds per play, and 16th in explosive offense.  Expect Utah State to win this game big.

Iowa State -142 4.5% ML play

Major let down spot for Kansas after they upset Oklahoma last week.  This was their first win over a top 10 opponent since 1995, and their first win over Oklahoma since 1997.  They are now bowl eligible again as well.  Iowa State has really started to come together nicely and are tired for first place in the Big 12.  Iowa State also looking to revenge last year’s loss against Kansas 14-11, which was a very misleading loss for Iowa State as they out gained Kansas by over 100 yards.  I’m not that impressed with the Kansas win over Oklahoma, a team that was trending in the wrong direction for a couple of weeks since their upset of Texas.

Cinci +4 2.2% play / Cinci +155 0.2% play

Cinci at 2-6 is fighting for their first Big 12 win against a beatable opponent that they are familiar with in UCF.  UCF comes into this game ranking 121st in ypc defense, 129th in rushing success rate run defense, 124th in possessions ending in turnovers.  Their defense has really struggled with mobile QB’s, which Cinci has in Emory Jones.  I’m not super excited to back Scott Satterfeld again here, but I think it’s a favorable match up.  UCF must run the ball to win, and Cinci ranks 22nd in rushing success rate defense.  I think being back at home will help them in this game

Georgia / Missouri Over 55.5 2.2% play 

Old Dominion pk 2.2% play 

Army +18.5 2.2% play

Huge game here for Army, and they have by far had a tougher schedule than Air force.  Army is playing power 5 schools from the ACC and SEC, and also have arguably the best G5 team in Troy on their schedule. That’s no excuse for losing to Umass 14-21, but Umass did get an extra week to prepare.  I expect a quick game here, and much like when we took Navy + the points that game was a lot closer than the 17-6 final.  These teams know how to defend each other, and I expect Air Force to have more trouble moving the ball than they are used to.  14 of Air Force’s points against Navy came on a broke play, and a key pick six off a tipped ball.  This is just a lot of points in a game where you have 70%+ run, 128th and 127th seconds per play, 112th and 108th explosive offenses.  Army 31st in turnover percentage so it’s going to be very difficult in my opinion for Air Force to win this game by 3 TDs.

Arkansas +4.5 5% play / Arkansas +170 0.5%

Arkansas has had a gauntlet schedule before their bye.  They had 4 road games against LSU, A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama, then a home game against Miss State where they just had nothing left.  Now they have a bye where they fired their offensive coordinator and a favorable match up against a Florida team that is in a major sandwich spot following the Georgia game and LSU on deck.  Arkansas has 4 winnable games if they get this one they could run the table to 6-6 and get into a bowl game.

Arkansas needs to run the ball to win games, and they have a veteran QB that is excellent in the red zone where Arkansas will have a major advantage on Saturday.  They’ll face a run defense that ranks 99th in ypc defense.  Over the past two years Arkansas when facing a run defense that’s not in the top 75 have only lost 1 game out of 9 by more than 4, and it was by 7, and they were able to put up an average of 35.2 points per game. Arkansas also a team that does not turn the ball over ranking 19th in OTO % which should keep them in this game no matter what on the road. 

Florida is certainly capable of winning this game, but the games that this team won big were games they were able to run the ball over 180 yards.  The Tennessee game was most impressive, but that was a night game, and they will have their hands full against Arkansas who ranks top 50 in ypc defense and rushing success defense, and rank 46% in TD percentage allowed.  Florida’s offense is hit or miss and they rely on long drives ranking 92nd in explosive defense I think Arkansas will be able to keep it within this number with a chance for an outright upset. Sam Pittman also 16-7 ATS as an underdog his team will fight for him here.

Syracuse -2.5 2.2% play 

Buy low situation for Syracuase playing at home with 2 extra days of rest/prepartion against a flying high Boston College team off 4 wins, but a closer look reveals a huge difference in strength of schedule. 

Boston College last 4 games have resulted in wins over teams who are a combined 9-23, while Syracuse has played 3 of their 4 games on the road losing all, but to opponents who are 22-10.  Boston College has gotten to go up agaisnt run defenses ranking worst than 100th in the nation in ypc or rushign success rate defense.  Syracuse easily the best run defense they have faced, and are even better at home in the Dome.

Syracuse needs to establish and run the ball and have a lead to do well, and i think they could do that here when you consider Boston College is 85th in ypc defense, 99th in yards per play, their pass defense is even worse so expect Syracuse offense to get back on track here, and for their run defense to set the tone. 

Texas Tech -2.5 2.2% play

I think we are getting some value here on Tech after their misleading two game stretch, and they are a desparate team sitting at 3-5.  Meanwhile TCU not so motivated in my opinion after their season last year and the season slipping a way with the Big 12 Championship out of mind.  TCU will start backup Josh Hoover who is not as good as Morris, not as mobile, and should allow the Tech defense, which is the strength of this team at home to play well enough to win.  They held a 17-13 lead over this TCU team last year heading into the 4th quarter.

Offensively Tech has out gained their last two opponents despite having their third string QB in the game.  They'll get back Behren Morton for this one and it shoudl be a huge bump.  They'll also get this in a night game at home, and Tech has been so much better at home than they have on the road.  TCU has been awful on the road this year, and the Big 12 as a hole have had home teams hitting at greater than 60% ATS.  I think Tech wins big here with TCU turning teh ball over ranking 129th in OTO %, while Tech is 14th on the defensive side of that #.  Tech also has 14th ranked special teams compared to TCU's 10th ranking. 

Old Dominion +21 3.3% play *8pm et

Old Dominion should ride the momentum from last week as they upset App State as a 6 point home dog, a game we gave out.  I don’t sense a let down as they had a bye the week before and they have been playing like this all season long.  James Madison ranked in the top 25 for the first time is not warranted in my opinion when you factor in they have been fortunate winning several of their games by single digits.

James Madison is a run first offense and that’s the strength of this Old Dominion defense which ranks 21st in ypc defense, 1st in success rate defense.  On the flip side James Madison has not faced many quality rushing attacks this season while they rank 1st in ypc defense they have faced an average opponent ranking 80th.  Old Dominion ranks 18th in rushing ypc, and I think they will be able to move the ball on James Madison in this one.  James Madison since last season has faced 7 top 50 run defenses and have gone 5-2, but only 2 games have been a victory by double digits, and they were +4 to margin in those.  Old Dominion has taken good care of the ball and I believe they will do the same in this game. 

Cincinnati +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Oklahoma State has been a dog in their last 4 games pulling the outright upset in their last 3, by running the ball, and forcing turnovers.  That has been the difference, meanwhile Cinci is -5 TO margin over their last 3 games, but on the season they actually rank 45th in % of possessions ending in a turnover.  Their run defense has also been excellent ranking 10th in rushing success rate allowed, and 19th in ypc allowed so they should be able to hold Oklahoma State in check on the ground game, and Oklahoma STate has not proven they can pass the ball ranking 92nd in passing success rate, 102nd in QB rating.  Overall I see two similar teams.  I think Cincinnati is going to be able to run the ball better than Oklahoma State as they have the better #’s overall fur rushing offense and rushing defense and that will be key going into this game. Cinci is desperate for a win, Oklahoma State is not supposed to be where they are currently, and have Oklahoma on deck so I see them just getting out with a win by less than a TD.

Kentucky +4.5 2.2% play

Arkansas State / LA Monroe Over 56(5pm et)

We have two top 50 teams in pace, and two of the worst defenses in football.  Neither offense looks spectacular, but both have played top 50 defenses in 4 of their last 6 games, which makes this total a bit low in my opinion.  When LA Monroe faced poor defenses this year they have scored 28 and 40 points, and Arkansas State’s 127th ranked ypp might be the worst of the bunch.  For Arkansas State they unleash when the play poor teams, and LA Monroe is just that ranking 100th in ypp defense, 124th in success rate defense. Arkansas State scored 52 and 44 points in two similar games against Southern Miss and Umass, and they gave up 37 and 28 in those games as well.  I expect a high scoring game here.

Florida +14.5 2.2% play 

I think the Gators can be pesky here as they do some things on offense that could give Georgia some issues.  Florida’s QB Graham Mertz has been great completing 76% of his passes 12 TD and 2 INT, which is an improvement from Anthony Richardson who was really inconsistent and only completed 53% of his passes.  Both teams off the extra rest and know each other well, both teams play outside the top 100 in pace.  Georgia lost their top offensive player in Bowers for the season, and while there is plenty of talent on Georgia’s offense still that biggest difference between last year’s match up and this year’s match up is the QB.  Carson Beck has played well, but the average opponent QB rating defense ranks 95th.

Pittsburgh /Notre Dame over 45 1.65% play

North Texas +7.5 2.2% play

Memphis just 1-5 ATS as an away favorite under Silverfield, and 10-25 ATS in their last 35 off a double digit victory as they beat up on UAB 45-21, but UAB started a backpu QB, and Memphis was +4 TO margin.  North Texas has been playing well of late, and played Tulane better on the road than Memphis played Tulane at home.  North Texas also proved they could hang with Memphis a season ago on the road outgaining them by 139 yards.  Chandler Rogers is really playing well at QB for North Texas with 8 yards/ attempts 14 TD and 1 INT.  Think this game is decided by a TD or less, and North Texas at home I give them the edge.

West Virginia +7 3.3% play 

I understand UCF has a good home field, but not on a noon kickoff, and we are getting a bit of an inflated line here base don UCF almost taking out Oklahoma and their old QB a week ago.  It seemed like that was a max effort for the team.  Meanwhile West Virginia struggled and lost to Oklahoma State, which is nothing new for West Virginia.  For whatever reason Neal Brown has struggled vs. Mike Gundy, and it happened again a week ago.  However, I actually think West Virginia matches up well in this one. 

West Virginia needs to establish the run in order to stay in games, and they rank 125th in seconds per play and can certainly play keep away in this one.  They got their running QB back in Greene, and they get to go up against the 116th ranked success rate defense, which ranks 112th in defense ypc, 127th in rushing success defense, 127th in third down defense, 133rd in turnovers forced.  I think West Virginia’s offense can have success, and help their defense out.  West Virginia’s defense is very good especially vs. the pass where they rank 5th in success rate.  UCF lives off their explosive plays, but WEst Virginia is very good at limiting those ranking 35th in explosive plays allowed.  They are also 28th in third down defense.  West Virginia is also the better special teams team and red zone team.

UNLV /Colorado State Over 62 2.2% 

Old Dominion +6.5 3.3% 

Both of these teams want to lean on the running game and play defense.  Old Dominion is actually by far the better running offense and defense and they have faced the tougher schedule. Old Dominion when I average out their ypc rank and success rate running the ball with garbage time eliminated rank 50th against an average opponent defense ranking 64.58.  App State ranks 54.5 vs. 67.7 so similar rushing offenses, but Old Dominion is at home in this game, which makes a difference.  Run defense is the biggest discrepancy as App State ranks 121st against an average opponent offense ranking 68, when compared to Old Dominion ranking 27.5 vs. 63.25.  

App State facing a top 50 run defense the last two seasons is only 2-4, with one win coming on a hail mary, and East Carolina  this team, but App State benefited from being at home and forcing 3 turnovers in that game.  Old Dominion coming off a bye here, and on the year holding opponents to 0.5 yard per play less than season average, while Old Dominion is allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponent average. 

BYU+3 2.2% play

BYU in night games at home are almost unbeatable while Texas Tech has been a poor road team for a while now.  This will be their third road game in 5 weeks, and they are down to their 3rd string QB a true freshman.  Meanwhile BYU starts Kedon Slovis a QB with tons of experience.  BYU is off a blow out, but before that they had wins against ARkansas on the road, Cincinnati at home.  I think this team will be ready to go, and Tech’s 85th ranked pass defense should allow BYU who struggled to run the ball to move it in this game.  Tech is not a team that forces turnovers ranking 108th, and they are also near the bottom at turning it over ranking 93rd in % per possession.

Auburn +6.5 3.3% play

Auburn has not been good on the road playing poorly at Cal, Texas AM, and LSU, but at home they took Georgia to the wire losing by only 7 points, and dominated their other two lesser opponents.  I look for Auburn to give Ole Miss issues and have a chance to pull an outright upset.  This is clearly a game Hugh Freeze had circled going up against the team that fired him or forced him to resign.  We saw a similar situation last year with Brett Bielama and Illinois who went into Wisconsin as dogs and won 34-10.  We also get Auburn in a buy low situation after they got crushed by LSU a week ago 48-18 after getting off to a slow start it just snow balled. 

On the flip side Ole Miss has not looked very good on the road; they struggled against Tulane for the majority of the game, got handled by Alabama, and even in their last game against Arkansas at home they struggled.  They come off the bye, but I don’t think this team deserves this much credit to be nearly a TD favorite on the road in the SEC and with the majority of the $ coming in on Ole Miss the oddsmakers refuse to move this to 7, which leads me to believe that Auburn is the right side.  Hugh Freeze as a HC is 36-19 ATS at home, 11-3 ATS as a dog.  Ole Miss just 3-20 ATS as road favorites of less than 8 points, and are just 3-17 all time on the road in the series.

UTSA/FAU O58 1.1% PLAY 

TEXAS / HOUSTON O60 2.2% PLAY 

Alabama / Tennessee Under 48 2.2% play

Both teams run the ball first and their offenses have not been even close to what they were a season ago.  I think this total is too high, when you factor both teams went from experienced top10 QB's who are playing in the NFL to two QB's that both coaches really don't trust.  Alabama has some explosive plays, but they are a run first team, and Tennessee has pbeen playing great defense ranking 4th in SR defense with their pass defense being the strength of the team.  I think Alabama wins this game and gets their revenge from last season, but I think their offensive line will continue to struggle agaisnt this Tennessee front that ranks 14th in sack%.  Both teams also have been limiting turnovers ranking in the top 25 in TO% per drive, and both teams play well on sepcial teams, which should lead to a lower scoring game.

Oklahoma State +3.5 2.2% play

Oklahoma State has revitalized their season after back to back wins against Kansas and Kansas State.  Once Alan Bowman came back and practiced with the first team it just seemed like Oklahoma State played much better all around.  For West Virginia they have been playing great, but they lost on a hail mary to a poor Houston team.  They have a good home field, but they typically are under dogs in this spot, but they’ll be favorites here, and I think Mike Gundy is a far better coach 3-1 vs. Neal Brown.  Last year’s loss saw Oklahoma State the week after Oklahoma lose at home and gave up 200+ yards rushing.  Oklahoma State still out gained West Virginia.  I think West Virginia who needs to be able to run the ball will have a hard time running against Oklahoma State.  They rank 94th in rushing ypc, and 78th in success rate.  Oklahoma State has been solid vs. the run ranking 33rd in success rate defense.  They did give up 200+ yards twice, but that was against a pair of top 20 rushing success teams and that just is not West Virginia.  Look for Oklahoma State to continue their momentum and history of success in this meeting.

Wisconsin-130 2.5% play 

A bit of a cheap price here on Wisconsin following their loss as a double digit favorite vs. Iowa.  A game that saw them lose their starting QB Tanner Mordecai who will be out in this game again.  I thought Braedyn Locke stepped up well enough in a tough spot vs. a top 10 defense.  He gets to go on the road here and take some of the pressure off against an Illinois defense that ranks 108th in success rate defense.  I think with Mordecai going out it gives Wisconsin the ability to go back to what they are great at which is running the ball.  Illinois ranks 99th in success rate defense, and 96th in passing success defense. 

Illinois came off a huge win over Maryland as a dog, but I'm not putting too much stock into that when you factor in Maryland was off an emotional loss against Ohio State which was a bit of a dream crushing loss.  I also think Wisconsin players rally behind the backup QB, and this is a major revenge spot as a much better Illinois team went in and beat Wisconsin 34-10 on the road to give Brett Bielma his win against the team that fired him.  Wisconsin fired Paul Chryst after that game, and I think the players look to get revenge here and they will against a very bad Illinois team.

Baylor +3.5 3.3% play 

Cinci has really struggled this season in their first year in the Big 12.  Actually all of the teams who joined the Big 12 have struggled.  Baylor got a win at UCF in Blake Shapen’s first game back.  Shapen will now be making his third start, and this one after a bye, which gave him extra time to get back in synch with the team, and this should be the best this Baylor’s offense looks all year.  Shapen also gets to go up against a pass defense that’s really struggling.  Cincinnati ranks 114th in QB rating.  Baylor on the other side has struggled on defense, but they have played an average ypp offense ranking 46.2, and Cinci ranks 91st.  Baylor has done well against mobile QB’s, and I don’t have a lot of confidence in Emory Jones passing the ball.

Navy +10.5 3.3% play 

Air Force has one three straight match ups, but I think this is Navy’s best chance over that time period to pull an upset win.  Air Force’s starting QB Larrier is doubtful, and Air Force just played a very physical game against Wyoming. Jensen Jones who came in for Larrier fumbled on his first two possessions, and that’s the one thing that can not happen in a game with limited possessions.  Navy has really taken care of the ball this year and have been able to force turnovers as well.  They rank top 20 in to % and forcing to % per possessions

 Navy had an easy victory over Charlotte a week ago, and facing triple revenge I think they have a max effort here at home where they always seem to play very well.  Air Force stats look very good, but it has come against a very weak schedule, and their #1 third down offense will be challenged this week against a Navy defense that ranks 19th in third down defense, and knows a thing or two about defending this type of offense.  Both teams play slowest in the country, and have not had many explosive plays ranking 100th (Navy), and 126th for Air Force. So a game with limited possessions, Air Force’s QB being doubtful, and navy having a ton of revenge, and the easier game a week ago, and home I think the value is clearly on them.

Georgia Tech -5.5 3.3% play 

Georgia Tech and BC off a bye here, and I think Georgia Tech is discounted a bit as both teams come in at 3-3, but Georgia Tech has faced the far tougher schedule.  Tech was in the game against Ole Miss, and the closes comparable opponent for BC was Louisville with their passing attack.  Georgia Tech is #1 in explosive plays, and top 50 in pace which should give Boston College some issues here.  BC’s wins have come against Army, Virginia and Holy Cross.  Their close loss against Florida State at home 29-31 was misleading as the entire Florida State team had the flu.  Georgia Tech will have an extra week of preparation which will be a huge positive when you factor in Boston College’s only offense is Thomas Castellanos feet.  I think Tech can game plan for it here, and I think their offense wills core some points.  Boston College ranks 113th in success rate offense, and 116th in success rate defense.  They also turn the ball over 95th in % of possessions, and don’t force turnovers 106th.  They just aren’t a good football team, and they like to play fast, which is going to give Georgia Tech the better coached team more opportunities. I sense a blow out here.

New Mexico State -3 2.2% play

Huge coaching mismatch here w/Jerry Kill vs. Dana Dimel.  UTEP is just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 home games, and are down to their 4th string QB at this point.  New Mexico State is continuing to get better and they have an elite offense with an elite running game backed by a dual threat QB in Diego Paiva.  I think that travels well, and expect New Mexico State to get the win here on Wednesday night. 

Under 54.5 3.3% play 

UAB +9.5 5.5% pod