49ers -7 5.5% NFL POD

Chiefs +3 -120 5.5% NFL POD

Packers +7.5 -115 3.5% play 

Washington +6 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this line is disrespect for Washington, but also the PAC 12, which has proven that they were one of the better conferences this year, which hasn’t always been the case.  The PAC 12 has always done well against the Big 10 for whatever reason, and actually Michigan is only 24-43 straight up vs. the PAC 12 and the PAC 12 is 3-1 this year.  It may be relevant, because Michigan just does not really face quality passing teams like Washington.  They may face an efficient passing attack, but nobody that is as good as Washington nor throws as much as Washington.

The story line is that Washington has not faced a defense this good, and Michigan has not faced an offense this good, but the real story should be that Washington faced 6 top tier defenses and went 6-0, and scored 30+ points in 5 of those games.  Michigan really only faced, Alabama, Ohio State, and neither team had an elite passing QB.  Michigan’s average opponent offense ranks 90.58, compare that with Washington’s defense getting to face an average offense ranking 53rd.  

Why is this number so large, and it comes down the the advance metrics, which has Washington’s overall numbers are not as good as Michigan, but there were games where Penix was hurt, and this team was not healthy.  They were much healthier and really dominated Texas, a team that you could argue has a very similar defense to Michigan.  I think Washington is really going to give Michigan’s defense issues, I think Michigan’s offense could control the game with their rushing attack, but I don’t trust McCarthy or Harbough as much as I trust Penix and Deboer.  They have been in many tight games this season, and have found all kinds of ways to win games, including last week when they nearly choked away a victory.  Penix faced Michigan when he was at Indiana and won the game without Deboer as his coach, and Deboer faced Michigan and lost without Penix so there is some familiarity here although not as relevant with different coaches.  I think the referee assignment also will lead to a higher scoring game

Packers -2.5 -123 5.5% NFL POD

Washington +4 5.5% max NCAAF POD

Washington has won all different ways this season, and still have not gotten the respect they deserve.  Texas is getting a ton of respect for beating Alabama way back when, and they navigated their way through the Big 12 after losign in the Red River Rivalry.  Each team had to overcome adversity, but Washington did it without losing, and they did it more impressively in my opinion beating Oregon 2x, winning in poor weather, with injured receivers.  They won with defense when they needed to, and they won with the running game when they needed.  They clearly in my opinion are not a one dimensional team and this is the best offense Texas has faced all year long.  Washington has the better YPP differential against a tougher schedule just by a slim margin and I would say the PAC 12 was better than the Big 12 this season.  We saw Arizona beat Oklahoma, Iowa State lose to Memphis yesterday.  USC's win over Louisville was impressive for the PAC 12 as well so at the end of the day I think this game will be close, and I trust Penix way more than I trust Ewers. 

Alabama +2 4.4% play 

These teams met in 2020, while Alabama was 7.5 point favorite, and now they area  2, 2.5 point dog in the span of 4 years it is a 10 point move and Alabama dominated that game.  Obviously a lot has changed since that game, but lets be honest 10 points in favor of Michigan is a bit crazy.  Michigan has faced a weak schedule this season, and the Big 10 has not looked good in these bowl games - Penn State, and Ohio State both lost to SEC teams as favorites.  Alabama has the better coach, especially with extra time, while Jim Harbough has really struggled in this spot against top 10 teams so numbers aside Alabama clearly has the edge with their coaching staff.

Michigan’s defense ranks 4th, but their average opponent ypp rank is 94th.  I think they are in for a culture shock here facing an Alabama offense that really hit its strides down the stretch has all kinds of ways to beat you with the explosive pass play, the mobile QB, and an offensive line that really improved as the season went on.  This Alabama team is better than the TCU team that beat Michigan a season ago.  The SEC has really dominated the Big 10 in the bowl games and until that changes I really could not lay the points with a Big Ten team as a favorite at this point.

Wyoming -165 5.5% MAX POD

Ohio State +1 5.5% NCAAF POD 

Colts +3 -115 4.5% NFL POD

Navy +3 5.5% pod

Saints+4.5 5.5% NFL POD

Over 53.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Broncos -1 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Packers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Jets pk 5.5% NFL MAX POD 

Tenn -1 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

Missouri in a major hangover spot here, and their head coach even admitted that they emptied the tank left it all out on the field against Georgia, but came up short.  Missouri will go back home and welcome in Tennessee, a team who got to cruise and play just a half of football against Uconn.  Tennessee is the better team, and based on what I have seen I trust them on the road.  They completely out played Alabama on the road in the first half, but couldn’t hold on, but I think we see a different situation here at Missouri, a team they smacked 66-24 last year.

Missouri will also have a banged up Luther Burden who is the star and the key to their offense at WR.  He’ll likely give it a go, but won’t be close to 100%.  Tennessee is just a really good team when you look at the numbers I don’t really see a glaring weakness that Missouri can take advantage of.  They don’t turn the ball over, and MIssouri does not force turnovers.  They have a top 20 special teams unit.  They have the better third down offense and defense, better rush offense and defense, the better coach, and the fresher team.  Tennessee does have a look ahead to Georgia, but that game won’t matter unless they win this one, and who knows what happens as Georgia hosts Ole Miss later that night.

cowboys+3.5 -120 5.5% max nfl pod

Arkansas +4.5 5% play / Arkansas +170 0.5%

Arkansas has had a gauntlet schedule before their bye.  They had 4 road games against LSU, A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama, then a home game against Miss State where they just had nothing left.  Now they have a bye where they fired their offensive coordinator and a favorable match up against a Florida team that is in a major sandwich spot following the Georgia game and LSU on deck.  Arkansas has 4 winnable games if they get this one they could run the table to 6-6 and get into a bowl game.

Arkansas needs to run the ball to win games, and they have a veteran QB that is excellent in the red zone where Arkansas will have a major advantage on Saturday.  They’ll face a run defense that ranks 99th in ypc defense.  Over the past two years Arkansas when facing a run defense that’s not in the top 75 have only lost 1 game out of 9 by more than 4, and it was by 7, and they were able to put up an average of 35.2 points per game. Arkansas also a team that does not turn the ball over ranking 19th in OTO % which should keep them in this game no matter what on the road. 

Florida is certainly capable of winning this game, but the games that this team won big were games they were able to run the ball over 180 yards.  The Tennessee game was most impressive, but that was a night game, and they will have their hands full against Arkansas who ranks top 50 in ypc defense and rushing success defense, and rank 46% in TD percentage allowed.  Florida’s offense is hit or miss and they rely on long drives ranking 92nd in explosive defense I think Arkansas will be able to keep it within this number with a chance for an outright upset. Sam Pittman also 16-7 ATS as an underdog his team will fight for him here.

Panthers +3.5 5.5% pod

Cincinnati +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Oklahoma State has been a dog in their last 4 games pulling the outright upset in their last 3, by running the ball, and forcing turnovers.  That has been the difference, meanwhile Cinci is -5 TO margin over their last 3 games, but on the season they actually rank 45th in % of possessions ending in a turnover.  Their run defense has also been excellent ranking 10th in rushing success rate allowed, and 19th in ypc allowed so they should be able to hold Oklahoma State in check on the ground game, and Oklahoma STate has not proven they can pass the ball ranking 92nd in passing success rate, 102nd in QB rating.  Overall I see two similar teams.  I think Cincinnati is going to be able to run the ball better than Oklahoma State as they have the better #’s overall fur rushing offense and rushing defense and that will be key going into this game. Cinci is desperate for a win, Oklahoma State is not supposed to be where they are currently, and have Oklahoma on deck so I see them just getting out with a win by less than a TD.

UAB +9.5 5.5% pod

Cowboys +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Louisville +7 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

This game has all the ingredients of an upset win here for Louisville.  Notre Dame is off back to back games that took a full effort and were high leverage results coming down to the last few plays.  Louisville has the extra day of rest and prep, and will be at home at night with their first sell out crowd in 4 years.  Jeff Brohm is the better and more experienced coach in this match up and he is 10-6 ATS as a home dog.  I just don’t trust this Notre Dame team, which has played great defense, but They will be up against an offense that could give them some issues in this one, and Notre Dame’s coaching staff has yet to let Sam Hartman loose. I expect a close fought game, and the home crowd will make the difference at night.

Broncos +6 5.5% MAX POD

PATRIOTS +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Chiefs +3 -125 buy 1/2 point

Chiefs -120 5.5% NFL POD

Cowboys / 49ers Over 46 5.5% NFL POD

Giants +3 -115 5.5% NFL POD

Georgia / TCU Under 64 4.4% NCAAF POD

This total seems high to me when you factor in these are two run first teams who play at a slower pace.  Georgia ranks 115th in seconds per play, and TCU ranks 81st.  Georgia the last two years have allowed 16 points per game over 9 total games when facing an offense that is top 50 in passing offense and rushing offense.  Their last two games they gave up 41 and 30 however, but I think that is giving us an inflated total here tonight.  Same thing goes for TCU who benefited from two pick sixes in the game against Michigan and then they played lose and gave up explosive plays which led to a highs coring game.  There were several red flags about the Michigan’s run defense that I thought TCU would exploit that they won’t be able to against Georgia’s run defense here tonight.  TCU’s offense lives off explosives, but Georgia has always done a good job stopping explosive plays.  I think TCU’s defense can hold their own a little bit in this game with a banged up Darnell Washington that’s a huge loss if he’s not 100%.  At the end of the day.  This is the best pass defense that Georgia has faced since Kentucky who held them to 16 points.  TCU runs the 3-3-5 which will invite Georgia to run the ball and keep the clock moving.  TCU average opponent defense ranks 70th, and while they put up a ton of points on Michigan last week it came in unusual fashion of large plays, two pick sixes etc. This is the most complete defense they’ve seen, and it will be tough to score points particularly in the red zone where Georgia has only allowed 36% TD rate.

Penn State pk 4.4% play 

I have some serious questions about Utah being able to move the ball consistently and put up points in the Rose Bowl. They ranked 19th in ypp, but that came against an average ypp defense ranking 97.8.  They’ll be without their TE Kinkaid, who had the majority of the targets from Cam Rising and going up against a top 10 defense.  They did not face a top 35 run defense all year, but faced 7 bottom 35 run defenses.  Utah has also enjoyed quite the home field advantage over the years that they will not enjoy in this game.  Utah ranked 80th in % off possessions ending in a TO, while Penn State ranked 14th in forcing them. I have Penn State as the more complete team and we are getting points.  Penn State playing without their top corner Joey Porter, but the loss of both Utah’s TE’s are a huge deal.

Penn State’s offense is led by Sean Clifford, a 5 year veteran who would like nothing more than to go out a Rose Bowl winner.  He’s really enjoyed a quality season and has taken care of the ball just 1 turnover worth play in 93 passing attempts against pressure and Penn State 32nd in sack % allowed.  Utah’s best cover corner out in this game, and should allow Penn State to move the ball.  Utah’s defense far better last year against Ohio State team playing without some of their skill position gave up 48 points.  Utah’s defense last year ranked 14th in ypp against an average offense ranking 46.  This year they rank 73rd against an average opponent ranking 44.6.  Last year they had a top 50 run defense as well as a top 50 pass defense.  Utah was also +1.5 ypp vs. an average opponent +0.83, while this year they are +0.9 vs. an average worse opponent -0.025.  Penn State +1.5 vs. +0.1.

Bucs -3 -125 5.5% NFL POD

Eagles / Cowboys Over 47 5.5% NFL POD

JETS -1 5.5% max nfl pod

Navy -138 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

This is one of my favorite games of the season.  It’s a game where every inch and yard and play matters so much.  I have been able to do a great job winning this game in the past, and look to continue that here again.  The last two years Army has been a -7 and -7.5 favorite, but this year it moves back to Navy being a favorite and rightfully so.  My handicap will be similar to last year’s +7.5 5.5% MAX winner in that I believe Navy has taken another step forward in improving.  So much to this match up comes down to the play in the trenches, and once again Navy has the better run defense by far.  Navy comes in ranking 16th in ypc run defense while Army comes in at 118th, and Navy has faced a tougher schedule with Notre Dame on their schedule and an opponent average ypp diff of +0.28, compared to Army’s -0.26. 

I like to look at an average offense defensive line stats looking at adjusted line yards, power success sand stuff rate.  This year Navy is the better team which was not the case the past 3 years yet Navy still managed to win 2 of the 3 games probably because their #’s were always a little worse from playing in a tougher conference.  In 2019 Navy averaged 80th, and Army rated 20th, In 2020 Navy 75th, Army 31st, and in 2021 Navy 48th, Army 23.16, but this year Navy 38.5, and Army 60th.  Navy is top 10 in all defensive line yard categories.  Their defensive coordinator Brian Newbery has given up a total of 3 TD’s to Army in 3 games.

Lastly, these games often come down to turnovers, and special teams.  Navy has the advantage in both.  They have a very strong advantage in forcing and limiting turnovers ranking 38th in % of possessions ending in a TO, and 15th in forcing them.  Army ranks 103rd and 121st.  Special teams is pretty even, but Navy has the advantage there ranking 56th vs. an average opponent special teams of 69.4 compared to Army 64th vs. 85.  Navy large advantages on third down offense and defense, which will be a huge factor here.  They average 58th between the two against an average 55.75 opponent 3rd down offense/defense.  Army averages 87th, and against a weaker schedule of 68.4.

Looking at the Air Force match up both teams lost, but Navy played far better offensively.  Army only managed 78 rushing yards and 67 passing yards with 25 minutes time of possession.  Navy had a 10-10 game going late losing 13-10 while Army lost 13-7.  That has not been the case in recent years, which only more proof that Navy has significantly improved.  In 2021, Navy lost 23-3, while Army beat Air force 21-14.  In 2020 Navy lost 40-7, while Army won 10-7.  Bottom line I’m taking the money line, I don’t like playing a favorite in this game which is going to be tight, but given all of the fact I laid out I like Navy to win this game a lot.

Falcons pk 5.5% MAX POD

Fresno State +3.5 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

The weather should have no impact on this game, which is rare for Boise at this time of year, but excellent for Fresno State.  Boise vs. top 50 offenses is 1-2, and their only win was against Fresno State without Jake Haener, and without Jake Haener Fresno is not a top 100 offense.  They played 5 games without Haener went 2-3, and failed to score more than 21 points with the exception of their game against a horrible New Mexico team and turned the ball over 9 times in those games.  Fresno also without their defensive captain Evan Williams in the first meeting and will return for this game.

Fresno’s defense is a top unit they rank 35th in success rate, and their only weakness is defending the run, which BYU with a worse run defense recently stopped Boise.  I think Fresno’s run defense will be pumped up for this one after giving up 300 yards to Boise. They did hold Taylen Green to 22 yards on 11 carries in the first game, and there is only more tape on Green at this point for Fresno to scheme a game plan.  Fresno State without their defensive captain really held their own early in the game against Boise holding Boise in the red zone multiple times.  This is going to be a close game and I would rather have the team with the better more experienced QB.  Fresno State also has a significant advantage in special teams ranking 14th compared to 104th. 

Jeff Tedford also the better head coach here with experience in the MW Championship game.  In fact Tedford 7-2 ATS as a road dog 2017-2019 when he was at Fresno and in 2018 they lost to Boise on the road and came back and beat them in OT on the road in the Championship game.  Andy Avalos is still a very young head coach in just his second season and first time in a game this big.  He is just 1-4 ATS in games where Boise is favored by less than a TD losing 4 outright.  Boise has not been in this situation yet this year.  They were a +2 dog twice, and went 1-1.  In what is supposed to be a tight game Fresno has the advantage in a very key area.

Oregon / Oregon State Under 58 5.5% NCAAF POD

This is a big game for Oregon who can get to the PAC 12 Championship with a win.  Oregon State is just a very hard team to beat on the road.  USC was able to do it 17-14, but that’s because Oregon State had costly turnovers.  I think with two run heavy teams, and Bo Nix not being 100%, he had 2 rushes last week we could see a lower scoring game.  These are two slower paced teams Oregon is 75th, while Oregon State is 125th in pace.  Oregon has the match up with their rushing attack which ranks 2nd, going up against a poor Oregon State run defense, but without Bo Nix being 100% healthy it clearly impacts their running game or at least did a week ago against a bad Utah run defense.  Oregon State’s run defense has been better at home and they have held their opponents to 17, 17, 10, 9, and 10 points in home games.  Their red zone defense has been elite allowing only 25% TD’s at home, 50% overall.

Oregon’s defense has had its struggles, but those have come against the pass.  Their run defense although not a birk wall rnaks 42nd in epa.  I think Oregon State can find some success running the ball, but it will be methodical drives.  Oregon ranks 17th in explosive defense allowed, and since Oregon State is 125th in pace that means we should see some long drives in this one.  Oregon’s defense also very good in the red zone allowing just 40% TD rate in conference play.

Patriots +3 -120 buy 1/2 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Short week definitely is an edge for the more experienced head coach, and Bill Bellechick already admitted that he was preparing for the Vikings during the bye before the Jets game, which I guess makes sense since he's very much familiar with my Jets.  Vikings have some injury issues as they lose their LT to another concussion, the secondary is banged up  and could be exposed here against the Patriots who rank #4 in explosive passing offense.  Patriots have a big edge in special teams and have a top 5 pass defense.  Vikings vs. top 10 pass defenses this season are 1-2 losing to Cowboys and Eagles, but their one win was against the Bills who they should have lost to last week.  Kirk Cousins typically also struggles when he's out of his routine, and this is playing at night + on Thanksgiving. 

Colts +7 5.5% MAX POD

Arkansas +3 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

Arkansas really needs a win here to make sure they get to a bowl game and they will be getting healthy just in time with KJ Jefferson taking all the reps in practice, RT Dalton Wagner back after missing the LSU game as well as one of the leaders of the defense in Myles Slusher.  Ole Miss in a dream crushing spot here after losing to Alabama they also lost the ability to win the SEC West and have the Egg Bowl on Friday on deck.  This is a tough situation for Ole Miss going on the road to play at Arkansas at night.  Arkansas has faced the tougher schedule, and a lot of their statistics are compressed with the health of KJ Jefferson.  This was a 1 point loss at Ole Miss last year for Arkansas as they rushed for 350 yards, and remember that game.  KJ Jefferson is from the state of Mississippi and unfortunately could not play against Miss State.

California +14 5.5% NCAAF POD

There is a lot to like getting double digits here.  First of all Oregon state is a one dimensional offense that relies heavily on the running game, and their offense runs at an extremely slow pace 128th in seconds per play in the country.  To win by double digits they will have to have a significant advantage, but I don't see that as the case as Cal ranks 49th in rushing defense and that has come against a 53rd ranked ypc offense on average.  So.. Oregon State is going to have to force turnovers, but they rank 83rd in % of opponent possessions ending in a TO, while Cal ranks 12th in turning the ball over.  Cal given up on their season? No, Cal has been fighting hard to get to bowl and played well against USC and Oregon their last two games.

Cal also has played in tight games with Oregon State each of the last 3 seasons losing 2 by 4 points, and winning 39-25 last year.  I think their offense can have some success here particularly running the ball against Oregon State who ranks 106th in epa run defense.  Cal's Jack Plummer was the starting QB a season ago at Purdue to open the year up and had one of his best games against Oregon State.  Cal's offense has been stopped because their offensive line has struggled at times, but Oregon State's defensive line ranks 121st in sack %, and 124th in power success rate.  Justin Wilcox also 16-5 ATS as a road dog.

Cardinals -1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Memphis +3.5 5.5 % NCAAF POD

Memphis off the bye and Cincinnati in a huge sandwich spot after their huge victory over Cincinnati in what was a very physical game.  I felt Cinci’s game plan lacked a bit on offense and they should have thrown the ball to attack the weakness of UCF’s defense, which is their pass coverage.  UCF has Tulane the top ranked team in the AAC up next.  I think Memphis, a team with a very good passing game will be able to do that this week.  Memphis also a very good home team.  They lost back to back on the road to Tulane and East Carolina.  They had a 17-0 lead against East Carolina, and lost in OT, the same team that beat UCF 35-13.  Against Tulane they were -4 TO margin and gave up a 90 yard punt return. 

Aside from the spot that favors Memphis here. I actually like their match up as they are very similar to East Carolina.  A pass first offense with a very good QB, and a defensive strength against the run.  Memphis 28th in ypc defense, 27th in epa.  They also have a top 30 special teams unit just like East Carolina.  UCF could be without Plumlee in this game although I personally hope he starts coming off the concussion I don’t think he’ll be 100%, and I’ve said it before he’s a one dimensional QB, and Memphis has shown they can stop the run.  They’ll also have revenge on their mind after losing 24-7 on the road last year.  They played that game without Seth Henigan, and had 4 turnovers.  UCF’s defense ranks 128th in forcing turnovers this season.  Memphis has been a very good team at home dating back to last year playing in a lot of tight games.  I think this one goes down to the wire.

Seahawks -3 5.5% MAX POD

Pitt +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

I have to put last week’s Pitt game behind me as it was our top play, and it’s usually a little difficult for me to get back to the window after a team burned me like Pitt did coming with 4 to’s at Louisville in my biggest play of the week, but not getting to the window the next week is a little square so here we are in a match up I like even more.  23-13 ATS, is Pat Narduzzi’s record following a SU loss.  For all the shit this guy gets he is a very solid coach.

North Carolina’s offense is sizzling, but the last time you want a team to go on a bye is when the offense and team is clicking, and that’s what we have here for Mac Brown’s Tarheels.  Mac Brown took over in 2019, and he’s 0-4 after the bye losing to Notre Dame the last two years, Virginia Tech and Pitt in 2019.  This offense really has not faced a good defense all year with the exception of Notre Dame, a game they put up a lot of garbage stats.  Notre Dame absolutely dominated that game, and the Irish have a very similar profile to Pittsburg in the fact that they want to run the ball, they want to play defense, and they rely on their QB to manage the game.  North Carolina since Brown took over when facing a top 50 ypp defense is only 2-9!   Their two wins came back in 2019, and were by only 3 points each against Miami and Duke.  Pitt at 4-3 still has everything to play for.

Pitt’s offensive troubles were two-fold last week at Louisville.  They could not protect their QB, and they really couldn’t get consistency and flow in their running game.  Despite running for more than 150 yards the team was just 4-11 on third down and had the 4 TO’s that cost them.  I don’t see the same thing happening here as they are facing a North Carolina defense that ranks 114th, in yards per play.  They rank 118th vs. the run, 116th vs. the pass, and have not show an ability to get pressure ranking 111th in sack %, 92nd in third down defense, and 112th in success rate.  Pitt is 2-0 when facing a bad defense this year, and 19-4 since 2018 when facing a non top 75 defense.  3 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points.  This team under Narduzzi just thrives in this type of a match up.  

Browns +7 5.5% MAX POD

Pittsburgh +2.5 5.5% MAX POD

Malik Cunningham is cleared for this game for Louisville and that’s a good thing here.  He hasn’t played in 3 weeks since suffering a concussion and Louisville off a bye.  I always feel like QB’s struggle the first week coming back after a concussion.  I feel like they aren’t necessarily 100%, and then they have to process so much information so quickly.  Cunningham does not do well with that normally, and here he goes against top 25 pass rush  that also is a top 20 pass defense overall and decent enough against the run to give them issues.  Pitt is 15th in havoc rate, and Cunningham grades out very poorly according to PFF vs. pressure 33.5, and it’s really not optimal to face it in this situation.  I looked further back and Louisville is 7-16 overall when facing a top 50 pass rush with Cunningham as the starter with two of those wins vs. group of 5 team.

Personally, I think we are getting some value, because Pitt lost to Georgia Tech 3 weeks ago, but they rebounded nicely to beat Virginia Tech.  In that game they had 3 turnovers in the second half.  I think they take better care of the football here and Louisville actually is worse ranking 93rd in % of possessions ending in TO’s while Pitt ranks 57th.  Pitt, a much more balanced offense than previous years makes them more difficult to prepare for, and they played extremely well on the road a season ago, and are also off the bye.  Narduzzi the last few seasons with extra prep is 8-0 straight up, meanwhile Louisville just 2-4 the last two seasons with 10+ days to prepare and that includes some large losses by 19, 14, and 21 points.  Coaching advantage here for Pitt in my opinion.

Match up wise Pitt also has the advantage as they are both run first teams.  Pitt ranks 56th in epa vs. an average opponent ranking 53.2, while Louisville ranks 72nd vs. 66.  Pitt’s defense ranks 43rd, while Louisville’s ranks 70th.  Pitt also more of a threat in the passing game as Pitt’s pass defense is top 20.  Louisville’s pass defense ranks 88th in qb rating despite having 2nd best pass rush, which is not a great sign heading into this game. Pitt’s other loss, was only only to Tennessee the #3 team in the nation, and nobody played Tennessee better this year than Pitt.

Dolphins +3 5.5% MAX POD

Kentucky +4

Classic buy low sell high situation here as Miss State dominated a good Arkansas team without their QB winning 40-17, while Kentucky lost without their star QB Will Levis as a more than a TD favorite.  Arkansas with a backup QB actually had 3 trips into Miss State territory with no points, so that final score was a bit misleading.  Kentucky is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  They are getting Will Levis back this game, and it will be the third game for Chris Rodriguez at RB, which should make a difference.

Miss State’s air raid offense is tough to defend, but I feel Kentucky can have success.  They rank 26th in epa pass defense this is the third year in a row they are seeing it, and the strength of the team is the LB’s.  Kentucky also a very good red zone defense, and although they haven’t gotten pressure on the QB this year that has been much different at home where they are top 50.  Miss State will move the ball, but Kentucky is 40th in third down stops, and top 25 pass defense overall should be able to slow Miss State enough to cover this #.

Kentucky on the flip side here is still a run first offense despite having issues from their OL.  I don’t think that shows up as much at home here and Miss State’s defensive weakness is their defensive line where they rank 107th in adjusted line ayrds, 102nd in standard down, 92nd vs. the run.  Kentucky since 2018 is 18-2 straight up when facing a team outside the top 75 in run defense.  These are two slow paced teams, and I expect a very tight ball game, but I believe the value is on the Kentucky side as they have also faced the tougher schedule.  Kentucky opponents +0.5 ypp differential compared to Miss State -0.51.  Kentucky could be undefeated they lost against Ole Miss on a late fumble, and obviously played without Levis against South Carolina this past week.  If that were the case wouldn’t they be favored here, but this is the exact spot we like to take Kentucky and Stoops in + the points.

Browns +1.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Clear hangover spot here for Illinois in my opinion.  Not only did they upset Wisconsin on the road they got their HC fired, and Brett Bielema who was fired by Wisconsin had to be very happy.  Well, how do they come back home now as a favorite, a role they’re not really used to with a hungry Iowa team who will be giving it their all before they go on a bye.

Iowa has all the ingredients of a dog we love.  We have the better defense based on strength of schedule.  Their offense which is catching a lot of shit has only faced an average ypp defense ranking 19.2, and again they face a top 10 defense right now, but a closer look at Illinois and their defense has faced an average opponent offense ranking 91st in ypp.  I understand Iowa ranks 108th, but I have more confidence that they’ll figure it out and Illinois will start to digress.

Honestly, both of these teams are very similar, run first offenses that take their time in pace.  3.5 points for Iowa when the total is 36 points seems like an awful lot.  I also love the fact that Iowa has significant edges in categories most people don’t bother to take a look at.  Special teams they rank 17th, and Illinois ranks 54th.  Penalties, Iowa is top 25 in fewest penalties, while Illinois ranks 106th.  Finally, turnovers which is arguably the most important thing to look at when you handicap a game.  Turnovers are generally luck, but Iowa seems to have a tendency year in and year out to cause turnovers.  They rank 21st in % of opponent’s possessions ending in TO’s, while Illinois ranks 111th on offense turning the ball over 17% of their offensive possessions.  Their QB is Tommy Devito who is typically good for 1 or 2 against top defense.  They actually played a clean game at Wisconsin, but don’t expect it to happen again here, and their star RB Chase Brown already has 2 fumbles. 

One last note, Kirk Ferentz on the road where the spread is single digits, is a cash maker as he has gone 39-24 ATS. 

Browns/Falcons Over 47.5 5.5% MAX POD

Troy +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Western Kentucky looks like it has not missed a beat, but look at the strength of schedule here as they have faced an opponent ypp differential of -2.8ypp.  To put it simply the average defense ypp is 105th, and average ypp offense is 116.  This is a team that had to replace their QB, OC, top WR, and only returned 11 starters.  There are going to be some growing pains and I think it shows up here against a very tough Troy team that already has proven they can win on the road as was the case at App State where it took a miracle on game day for them to lose.

Troy matches up well here, because of the defensive line, which is the best in the Sun Belt.  They ranked 3rd in sack %, but unlike Western Kentucky, Troy has faced a very tough schedule to start with road games at Ole Miss and App State, and then a very impressive home win last week against Marshall.  They go back on the road to face Western Kentucky, and I think they’ll be in position to win this game.  Western Kentucky’s offense despite facing poor defenses have only converted 34.48% of their plays.  Western Kentucky relying heavily on big plays.  They were #1 in 20+ yard plays a season ago.  Troy was 33rd allowing 20+ plays last season and is top 20 this season despite playing

Western Kentucky has to be feeling good about themselves right now, but they have a monster game on deck.  They’ll face UTSA the team they lost to twice last year including the C-USA Championship.  Troy coming from the Sun Belt is the clear better conference and Western Kentucky just 2-6 ATS their last 8 vs. Sun Belt.

Packers +1 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Arkansas +2 5.5% NCAAF POD

Just off the top I think we are seeing some value here with Arkansas following their near upset to Missouri State, but they were resting a lot of guys for this upcoming game at Cowboys Stadium, but also Bobby Petrino returned as Missouri State’s head coach so thought there was max motivation for them in that game.

Max Johnson took over at QB for A&M after the loss to App State and it was supposed to spark the offense, but despite their 17-9 win it did not spark the offense as Johnson was just 10-20 for 140 yards.  It got us a win and a cover, but I felt like we were very fortunate to cover with A&M last week.  Arkansas and Barry Odom prepared for Max Johnson last year when he was at LSU, which led to him being benched in the game so I think that helps here, and I don’t think A&M’s offense is able to take advantage of the clear weakness of Arkansas defense, which is their secondary.  A&M ranks 113th in epa pass offense and that has come against some suspect passing defense ranked 77th on average in epa pass defense.  A&M needs to run the ball to win games, and Arkansas thus far has been a rock against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, and they have been able to get to the QB ranking #1 in sacks.

A&M’s defense has been great and that will be a challenge for Arkansas, but I like Arkansas offensive line here that is very experienced and grading out as a top 5 unit overall.  Aggies are talented with 5 star guys across the board, but they have just two upper classmen on their 3 deep on the DL and 8 of the 12 are freshman.  Texas A&M also has struggled on defense when they have had to face a team that can beat you throwing the ball and passing the ball, and Arkansas ranks top 30 in both categories, but since Jimbo Fisher has come aboard they are just 1-9 vs. teams who are top 50 in rushing ypc and QB rating.  At this point are we really sure Jimbo is a good football coach worth all that money?  A&M also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 in September. 

Panthers +2.5 5.5% NFL POD

Purdue +1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

We have two one dimensional offenses of different styles going against each other as we have a clash of the Big Ten and ACC.  First off the Big Ten has gone 8-4 vs. the ACC outscoring them by a TD since 2020 so while these two teams appear to be about the same in their given conference I think Purdue and this coaching staff led by Brohm have definitely proven they are the better team.  This is a team that showed they could win on the road winning 5 games last year and are 9-3 ATS overall as an away dog under Jeff Brohm.  Meanwhile, Syracuse as a home favorite under Baber 8-7 ATS as a home favorite.

Purdue’s run defense is going to be the big match up here as Syracuse has a run first offense led by mobile QB Garret Shrader and the great RB Sean Tucker.  Purdue ranks 34th in epa run defense and held Penn State in check in their first game, and allowed less than 4 ypc on the road a season ago. 

Purdue runs a spread 60%+ pass first offense, that I think is harder to defend than Syracuse option run offense.  It also helps that Syracuse ranks 108th in epa pass defense, and ranked outside the top 100 a season ago.  While their designed 3-3-5 defense is built to defense the spread their defense is extremely young especially in the secondary. I actually think Purdue who has a size advantage up front with 3 of their 5 OL being upper classmen and an average total weight of 308lbs.  I look for Purdue to be able to get some explosive plays in this game, which was something they were able to achieve in week 2 but not in the game against Penn State.

I gave out Syracuse at home vs. Louisville in week 1 and it was an easy casher.  Syracuse has a very good home field advantage in a dome, but this is an early noon kickoff, and I think Purdue’s pass first play style is something that will give them trouble.  They only played two teams a season ago that were pass first offenses (Pitt, NC State) those teams won by 17 and 24 putting up 31 and 41 points respectively and dating back 2019 they are 0-7 vs pass first teams, and they have yet to face a team that passes over 60% of the time like Purdue typically does.  Last note on this one.. Jeff Brohm was a +7 dog vs. Dino Babers Bowling Green team back in 2014, and Western Kentucky won 59-31.

Falcons +5.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

49ers +3.5 5.5% NFL POD

Tampa Bucs -2.5 -114 5.5% NFL POD

Just who have the Rams beaten of late that is impressive?  They played very poorly down the stretch and were fortunate and went 3-5 vs. playoff teams this year with 2 wins coming against a Cardinal team that was obviously having issues down the stretch.  They also beat Tampa in LA, but Tampa out gained them, and had a monster game on deck as Brady was set to return to New England.  Stafford played out of his mind on third down in that game, and I don’t know that I see him playing perfectly again.  If he does we tip our hat, and take the loss.

I think Tampa has some value here, because there is still this idea that the offense is going to struggle without Brown, and Godwin, but there are plenty of weapons left in Tampa.  Rumors Lenoard Fournette will return, and it looks like both Wirfs/Jensen will play in this game along the offensive line.  Brady at home won’t be phased by the Rams, while Stafford just won his first playoff game in his career.  Stafford had issues with turnovers all year and they go against a Bucs team that ranked 7th in TO/drive while the Rams were 20th in offensive TO’s/drive.  If there is going to be a turnover that impacts this game it’s going to be on the Rams side.

49ers +3.5 -115 5.5% NFL POD E

Right now you can get +102 for +3 on the 49ers, if you wait long enough I suspect a +3.5 may pop at your book.  That's what I'm doing here, but righ tnow you can buy the half and grab the -115.

First of all the 49ers come from the much tougher division with 3 of the 4 teams in the playoffs, and the worst team being Seattle.  Each NFC West team played the AFC East 1x, all games were on the road, and the NFC West went 3-1 SU & ATS with margin of cover of 10.67 points.

Both teams had some key injuries throughout the year that impacted their teams so I’m not going to harp on the Cowboys injuries or the 49ers as they both had to go through adversity to get here.  Both teams went 4-4 vs. team’s with a +0.1 or more ypp differential, but it’s worth noting that all 4 of the 49ers losses came against top 10 run defenses in that cycle, and the Cowboys rank 20th in epa run defense, 16th in rushing defense dvoa.

49ers and Kyle Shanahan are built off their zone running scheme that operates on misdirection, speed, and RB with great natural ability to hit the correct hole.  This is a bad match up against an aggressive defense with speed like the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys could have some stops for loss, but overall the 49ers are going to be able to move the ball here.  The 49ers vs. bad run defenses (outside of the top 15) went 7-1 averaged 29.6 ppg, with a margin of victory of 12.42 points, and their only loss was by 2 against the top seeded Cowboys.

Much can be said about the 49ers pass defense as well that ranks 23rd in epa, and 16th in dvoa.  Cowboys when facing a bad pass defense went 8-2 this year, they averaged 36.8 ppg, with a margin of victory of 22.8 ppg, but in that sample is the horrible NFC East opponents including covid issues, and an Eagles team that rested all their players the last week of the season when the Cowboys put up 50+ points.  I think the Cowboys will get some points here for sure, but that’s also why I played 49ers over.  It’s also worth noting that 49ers pass defense has had issues, but their strength of opponent passing teams is very tough.  On average they faced 15th ranked passing offense when we blend passing dvoa and epa.  Compare that with the weakness of the Cowboys defense which faced an average run offense ranking 17.54.

Alabama +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

First off lets address the "sharp" vs. "public joe," because it does appear that 60% of the tickets are on Bama, and just 40% of the money.  I think many are number grabbers pointing to the fact that, hey Georgia was -6.5 on a neutral in the SEC Championship, and now they are -3 or even -2.5 in places.  The look ahead was actually 3.5 for that game, but Alabama struggled with Auburn and we get 3 points of line movement.  If anything this is great news for the Alabama side, because there is no rat poison for NIck Saban's players to feel overly confident even though they just beat this team by double digits.  It only helps that many of the radio and guys who say they are sharp are also on Georgia here.  Many of those guys that are said to be sharp, are not transparent on their records and don't win long term.  

Some other concerns here are the fact that Menchie is out for Alabama, and while that's a big loss, they replace him with another 5 star WR that has more talent in Ja"Corey Brooks who had 4 catches, 66 yards and a TD vs. Cincinnati.  There are some bumps and bruises on the right side of the offensive line, but those are being hush hush, and I think there won't be an issue.  Bryce Young can't play out of his mind again, but I think you have to factor in Brian Robinson is healthy again, and wasn't for the SEC Championship.  Jameson Williams is a difference maker and the main reason Alabama struggled vs. Auburn.  We saw the difference with him in the game, and I'm sure Georgia makes adjustments to take him out of the game, but that opens things up for Bolden, Billingsley, and Brooks and others in this passing game.

Georgia's offense in recent match ups has come out throwing on Alabama, mainly bc that seems to be the weakness of the defense, and it is again this year.  You can't ignore that Stetson Bennett has played better agaisnt Alabama in his last outing, but still he threw 2 interceptions, and I still question now that Alabama is able to take that game and make adjustments.  Honestly when we take out the two Alabama games he has had 13 opponents he's gone up against and they have had an average 73 ypp defense, and those teams who averaged 73rd rank ypp went against an opponent average of 59.3 ypp offense.  He's really only gone up against a total of 4 top 40 defenses including the two times against Alabama.  He struggled this year against Florida who ranked 39th in ypp, and he had a great game against Michigan, but they had extra month to prepare, and lets be honest Michigan was not the 8th ranked defense, they played an easy schedule of offenses averaging 73.5 in ypp.  Alabama ranks 7th, and their opponent average ypp offense is 51.  In my opinion Alabama's defense is totally getting disrespected with all the talk on Georgia's defense, which has flaws.  Their secondary does not have the speed to keep up with Alabama's receivers, and Alabama with their hurry up can take the defensive line out of the game.  It's really up to Stetson Bennett in this game, and can he make adjustments again to make his game better?  I just don't think the talent is there for him to pull something we haven't seen before, and going up against Nick Saban who will make his own adjustments from the last game.

Adjustments, and psychological advantage on the Alabama side. You really can't argue that.  2017 Georgia played Alabama in the National Championship game and led 13-0 at the half, but then adjustments and Saban went to a backup QB, and they outscored Georgia 26-10 to win in OT.  In fact Alabama has outscored Georgia in the second half 85-24 in the last 4 meetings including the 2017 game.  They trailed in 3 of the 4 in the first half 75-58.  So if we consider this second game of the season like a second half, where both teams have limited time to review and make adjustments, history tells us that Alabama is going to have the advantage, and I think that advantage is on their defense which is held Georgia to 6ppg in the second half of games.  Stetson Bennett could prove me wrong, but until I see it there is only one play here and it's on Alabama as a dog.

49ers +3.5 5.5% POD

Bengals +4 5.5% NFL POD

Arkansas -125 5.5% NCAAF POD

Alabama / Cinci Under 57.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Nick Saban, a month to prepare for tendencies and strengths, and I think the game plan will be to run the ball, and avoid turnovers.  Alabama came out running no huddle against Georgia, which made a lot of sense, and I think the offense looked great giving us an inflated total here.  Against Cinci, the way to attack them is in the running game. They boast two of the best corners in all of football, the #7 epa pass defense, and 18th sack %, but this defensive front is under sized.  Alabama without Menchie at WR, so I think the plan of attack will be on the ground, which obviously makes the under very attractive.

For Cinci's offense, I'm really not sure how they move the ball with consistency.  All of their big plays come on early downs, and you bet Alabama will be ready for that.  Desmond Ridder is really going to have to play the game of his life to win or put up points, because Alabama #2 in run defense, they're #41 in epa pass defense, and 8th in getting to the QB.  Ridder against good defenses have not been pretty and his offense has benefited largely from the Cinci defense forcing turnovers.  They rank 3rd in forced turnover percentage per drive, but Alabama is 9th on offensive TO% per drive.  I don't anticipate they will have that edge here.

Vikings +3.5 4.5% / Vikings +155 1% 

UTSA +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this game means more to UTSA, they will have the crowd edge in Frisco, TX and I’m a bit surprised they are dogs here, but the Mountain West just gets more respect than C-USA, but they are just 11-10 vs. C-USA in bowl games.  We already saw UTEP go toe to toe with Fresno State, and that was much more of a mismatch than this game.  In reality on paper UTSA is the better team, far more balanced overall where San Diego State is a very good team, but they have a very bad offense.  They’ll rely on running the ball, but they still rank just 83rd in EPA run, and they are going up against a very good run defense that play physical football, and ranks 29th in epa run defense. 

San Diego State played 3 top run defenses this year and scored 19, 20, and 20 points.  UTSA is without their star RB who opts out to prepare for the NFL draft, but if there is a position I’d want to lose, it would be RB.  They still have their leader Frank Harris at QB, and San Diego State’s defense has not faced a mobile QB this season.  IF you remember they played Utah gave up 31 points at home, won the game, but that was the first game for Cam Rising at QB, and he had 50 rushing yards against this San Diego State defense.  Facing a top defense is nothing new for UTSA and I think they’ll enjoy the challenge.  They faced 4 top 40 ypp defenses and averaged 35.5 points per game in those games eclipsing 27 or more points in each.

I have tremendous respect for Jeff Traylor he’s a winner, and they beat a Western Kentucky team in their Championship game that dominated in bowl season.  They have hit many goals this year, beating a Big 10 opponent, getting 12 wins, and a C-USA Championship, but going for a 13th win is something very special especially since it would be their first bowl win ever.  Jeff Traylor is one hell of a coach we backed them against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship, and it paid off and I’ll do it again here.  Traylor missed last year’s bowl game because of COVID protocols, and his team still nearly upset Louisiana Lafayette as a +14 dog.  They got behind 24-7, and crawled back to tie the game in the 4th.  This is a team that does not give up plays hard football, and I think they get the upset here.   Brady Hoke has had a great season, but I feel like the luck runs out here.  He’s just 2-3 in bowl games and when this defense played a top 50 ypp offense they went 1-1, but gave up 30 points in both games.  The only reason I’m not taking the money line here is these are two defensive teams, San Diego State plays a lot of close games, and the 3 points mean a lot more than getting +122.

Steelers -121 5.5% MAX

Bengals +115 5.5% MAX POD

NAVY +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I expect a tight game on a neutral field here.  The numbers favor Army, but Navy has faced the tougher schedule with Notre Dame and Cinci on their schedule and their opponent YPP differential are far different.  Navy has faced an average opponent YPP diff of +0.65 cmopared to Army -0.2.  The YPP differential, and opponent YPP differential leads me to believe that Army is the side, but you have to understand these two teams know each other, and anything over a TD I think is gold in this game.  This most resembles the 2018 game where Army was 7 point favorite, and pushed with a 17-10 win, but that was because they were +4 TO margin.

Army +11 TO margin in their wins and -4 in their losses.  Navy has a total of 8 to's on the season and rank 5th in posessions ending in a TO, Army ranks 10th.  I actually think Navy has the better run defense they rank 52nd in epa run defense comapred to Army who is 87th.  It doesn't look or seem like Navy is any better than last year, and last year was a complete disaster for Navy, but Army is slightly worse, and Navy has gotten a lot better.  Their average offensive and defensive standard line yards, power success, and stuff rate is 48th, Army's is 23.16.  Last year, when they were also +7.5 a true road game mind you.  They averaged 75th, while Army averaged 31st.  In 2018 when Navy was 7 point dog on a neutral they averaged 80th, while Army averaged 20th. 

I think this match-up is going to be a lot closer, and  Navy has been a pesky team this year.  They have given some teams that are better than Army fits.  They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits.  They won at home against UCF, lost by only 3 to East Carolina and at won at Tulsa who statistically are better than Army.  Navy'd DC, Brian Newberry has only given up 2 TD's in 2 games vs. Army so expect Navy to have an opportunity to win the game.

Chargers +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Under 53 5.5% MAX POD

Rams -1 5.5% MAX POD

Saints +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Saints +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD

UAB +4.5 5.5% NCAAF POD / UAB +170 1% bonus

Marshall was my POD last Saturday over FAU, and it was an easy cover, but Marshall continued to give up rushing yards 47-243 yards, but luckily FAU, and their poor coaching staff bailed us out.  That will not happen here as Bill Clark far better coach than Willie Taggart.  UAB held Marshall to 268 yards in their own building last year and there really is not much difference between last year’s UAB vs. Marshall.  Marshall was +1.4 vs. -0.6 ypp while UAB WAS +1.3 VS. -0.25.  This year, UAB +1 VS. -0.35, AND Marshall +1.6 vs. -0.53.  UAB also needs this game more as both sit at 4-1, UAB is trailing UTSA, and if they don’t win this game next week’s game won’t matter at all, while Marshall can afford to lose, and then beat Western Kentucky the last week of the season and win their division to get to the C-USA Championship.

UAB also has the goods in a team that I want to back on the road.  They have very good rushing offense ranked 10th in epa, they’re going against a Marshall defense that ranks 95th in ypc, and 93rd in epa run defense.  They have a very good defense ranking 24th in ypp, and can force Marshall into third and longs to let their elite pass rush get after Marshall.  They also rank 12th in defensive TO% per possession, while Marshall ranks 122nd on offense.  I don’t think Marshall can play a clean game here, while UAB can. The biggest difference between this year and last year’s match up is Marshall seems to have forgotten how to stop the run. Last year’ steam ranked 6th in ypc defense, and gave up 216 yards to UAB, but this year’s defense ranks 95th.  It’s not even because they have faced a tougher group of offenses.  UAB’S ranked 64th in epa run offense last year, and this year they rank 10th.  They ran for 127 yards at Georgia, which is the second most rushing yards Georgia has given up all year.  I think the wrong team is favored here UAB wins outright!

49ers MAX 5.5% NFL POD 

Marshall -1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Florida Atlantic is over rated, and they have an over rated head coach in Willie Taggart.  Marshall’s DC Lance Guidry was also the safeties coach at FAU last seasons and is very familiar with the Owls’ defensive personnel.  FAU offensive numbers are bull shit.  They average 30.3 ppg on the season, and 44.75ppg have come in their 4 games against shitty defenses.  An fcs foe, and 3 defenses that rank 119th, 118th, and 127th in yards per play. Marshall ranks 24th in that category.  Against top ypp defenses FAU is 1-3, and scoring only 15.75ppg.  Last week they scored 28 vs. UTEP, which looks great, but it’s misleading thus giving us value in this spot with Marshall.  FAU pulled off the upset, but they were outgained 436 to 279 in the game.  Marshall has a huge advantage on the defensive line ranking 6th in pressure rank while FAU Ranks 113th in protecting their QB.  Against the top 2 pressure rate defenses, Air Force & UAB, FAU scored a total of 21 points, and N’kosi Perry had 1 passing TD and 4 INT’s.

Marshall has had turnover issues, and that’s really the story here, and while FAU has been able to force turnovers, I don’t see Marshall having issues, because they are going up against arguably the worst run defense they have faced all year.  FAU ranks 107th in epa run defense, 102nd in defensive ypc.  Very similar to FIU team that they beat 38-0 last week.  FIU also had a good running team, and Marshall who had been struggling to stop the run seemed to fix the issues in their bye really holding FIU in check to 108 yards on 31 carries and 0 points.  Marshall’s offense had 10 rushing TD’s in their last two games while scoring 49 and 38 points.  FAU is not going to be able to stop the run, and Grant Wells is fully capable of passing the ball, while FAU ranks 111th at getting pressure.  Marshall has dominated their trips into the state of Florida over the past decade and it is very important that they continue that as they recruit a ton of players from the state.

Boston College +135 5.5% MAX POD

I'm taking BC on the money line here.  There are stron grumors that Phil Jurkovec will be back at QB tonight for the Red Bandana Game.  Red Bandana game is something that BC players have in their brain all season.  They ahve Red Bandana practice drills, and we know we will get a max effort out of Boston College.  Boston College has the better run defense, and rushing offense in my opinion and if Jurkovec is back it will be another boost for a struggling offense.  They also lost to Virginia Tech on the road 40-14 last year, but it was a 17-14 game in the 3Q.  Boston College had 5 turnovers in the game.  They have only turned the ball over 3 times at home this season.  

Boston College has struggle dlosign 4 in a row, and the last two have been really bad, but those games were on the road, and against Louisville and Syracuse who have an elite part of their offense.  Both rank top 25 in rushing offense, and have a good running defense to go along with it making it a challenging task.  Virginia Tech on the other hand ranks 90th in epa run offense, and 122nd in epa run defense, they also rank 92nd in epa passing offense.  I'm not a big fan of Braxton Burmeister at QB.  He's a heck of an athlete and a threat in the running game, but until recently has not been a good QB on the road.

Saints +4.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Fresno State +100 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Fresno is by far the more balanced team especially on offense, while San Diego State is 105th in ypp, and that has come against an opponent ypp differential of -0.7.  Fresno State is 42nd in ypp offense, and 35th in ypp defense, and it has come against an opponent with an average ypp differential of 0.08.  Fresno beat UCLA on the road and shut down their rushing offense, that is far superior to San Diego State’s.  That was not a fluke as they also shut down Oregon’s rushing offense, and lost by only 7 points on the road.  I think we are getting some line value, because Fresno lost to Hawaii on the road, but they had 6 turnovers in that game.  With 16 turnovers on the season is concerning, but 12 of the 16 have come against Oregon, UCLA, and Hawaii who all rank in the top 25 on defensive TO % per possession.  As good as San Diego State is they rank 120th in defensive to % per possession.  Fresno who ranks 20th on defense in the category will actually have the advantage here as San Diego State ranks 109th in % of their possessions ending in TO’s.

Fresno is the best defense San Diego State has faced thus far ranking 18th in success rate defense, 40th in epa run defense, and 17th in epa pass defense.  On the flip side Fresno is the best offense that San Diego State has faced.  San Diego State has not faced a single team that can pass as their average opponent epa pass offense ranks 99.1.  I believe this is the game that San Diego State’s offense finally catches up with them.  It’s also not easy defensively the week after playing a triple option offense.  Fresno wins on the road.

Colts +4 5.5% NFL POD

Kansas State -105 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

This is a max effort game for Kansas State who is the more desparate team having lost 8 straight Big 12 games, and Chris Kleinman’s seat has gotten hot.  However, they just lost to the 3 best teams in the conference in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  They have actually owned Texas Tech winning 9 of the last 10 match ups, and I expect Texas Tech who is just one win shy of a bowl game already to be a little more content.

This is also the type of game Texas Tech loses.  They lose against opponents that can run the ball and take them out of their flow on offense.  The run defense has allowed 2.61 ypc in wins, and 7.37 in losses to TCU and Texas.  Kansas State is every bit in that mix of quality rushing offenses led by Deuce Vaughn who had 113 yards on only 16 carries in this match up last year.  Kansas State ranks 40th in ypc, and 63rd in epa rush offense, but they have done it against a tough schedule.  An average opponent ypc defense ranking 47th.  Their last 3 losses have come against Oklahoma State, 18th in ypc defense, Oklahoma 6th in epa run defense, and Iowa State 20th in epa run defense.  Texas Tech ranks 101st in ypc defense, and 109th in epa run defense and it doesn’t hurt that some of Kansas State’s rankings came when they were without Skylar Thompson for two games.  Even Kansas was able to run the ball against Tech 145 yards on 33 carries.

Texas Tech has a veteran QB in Columbi, but there is a reason he lost the starting job to transfer Tyler Shough.  Columbi needs the big play to put up points, and Kansas State’s defense, which has not been good against the pass at least ranks 37th in 20+ yard passing plays allowed.  I think Columbi gets a bit impatient and forces some passes here.  Kansas State also has beaten two top 50 passing offenses and held them to season low in points in Stanford and Nevada and they have only allowed 7 passing TD’s in 6 games.  Tech has shown some balance in the running game and that’s probably why they are favorites here, but it’s flawed.  4 out of the top 5 are outside the top 80 in epa run defense.  Kansas State ranks 52nd in epa run defense, and 28th in ypc.  Houston was the only other top 50 run defense, but their average opponent epa run offense faced was 102.2, so they’re flawed.  This is the best defense that Tech has played all year.

There is another advantage here for Kansas State and that is special teams where they rank 12th in the country compared to Texas Tech’s 100th ranking.

UCF +115 5.5% NCAAF POD

Let’s talk about the short rest for UCF? I’m not concerned, because they get so much energy from their home crowd, known as the “Bounce House.”  Memphis does have an extra couple days to prepare for this game, but I think traveling down to UCF where it’s 80 degrees and over 60% humidity is going to be a challenge.  Memphis has really struggled on the road in front of crowds of 19,500, 28,500, and 17,500 this season, and they’ll see 42,000 in a loud stadium on Friday night at the Bounce House.  Memphis QB Seth Henigan is also a true freshman, and while he’s been lights out this is just a different kind of challenge in my opinion.  Henigan also hurt his arm in the last game and he’s listed as probable, but you have to at least think it impacts him some.  Memphis also ranks 90th in percentage of offensive possessions ending in  TO, while UCF’s defense ranks 33rd in forcing those turnovers, which is a HUGE edge in this game.  UCF also much better at stopping the run at home allowing 2.34 ypc compared to the 5.65 on the road, and Memphis is averaging 2.5 ypc less in their losses. 

UCF’s offense without Gabriel really needs to establish the run.  They rank 22nd in ypc, and 4th in epa run offense and they get to go up against a Memphis defense that ranks 92nd in epa run defense, and 94th in epa pass defense.  I just don’t understand how Memphis is favored here.  Isiah Bowser came back last game for UCF and will go here tonight.  Memphis has not faced a top 50 rushing offense.  Their average opponent rushing ypc rank is 92.16.  The best rushing offense they faced was Texas San Antonio and they gave up 205 yards and 3 TD’s.  They also gave up 235 yards to Tulsa on the road who ranks 111th in EPA run offense.  I think UCF can establish the run in this game.  It’s worth noting that Gus Malzahn is 30-3 since 2016 when his team runs for 200+ yards.  Mikey Keane is starting to improve and while he has 4 INT’s on the year he just had to face Cinci’s defense, and here he gets to go back home facing a Memphis defense ranking 98th in QB rating, 94th in epa pass defense, and 129th in TO percentage forced per possession, and he’ll have Bowser and the rushing attack backing him up.  Central Florida wins outright!

Raiders +4 4.4% NFL POD 

Stanford -1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Washington State is very happy with themselves after winning back to back games as a dog, but Oregon State was fat and happy after beating USC and Washington, and traveled all the way up to Washington State to lose 31-24, and that was a different type of match up for Washington State.  Stanford here is off a loss, and has an extra day to prepare and they really need this game for bowl eligibility.  They have a QB in Tanner McKee who is going to give Washington State’s defense some issues.  Washington ST ranks 113th in sack %, and that will allow McKee time to find the receivers.

For Stanford is simple they are 3-0 when they run for more than 100 yards, and 0-3 when they run for 70 or less.  The teams they are 0-3 against and ran for less than 70 yards were UCLA, Kansas State, and Arizona State who rank 19th, 10th, and 7th vs. the run.  Washington State ranks 103rd in rushing ypc defense, and 112th in epa run defense.  Stanford’s run defense, which has struggled has seen them facing 5 top 50 rushing teams.  They lost 3 of those games, and 3 of them have come against athletic QB’s who are a threat to run the ball, and ran for 5 rushing TD’s.  Washington State ranks 96th in ypc and 97th epa run offense, and their QB is not a threat to run.

Stanford also has a special teams advantage here ranking 66th to Washington State’s 114th ranking, and Washington State has been very turnover prone with 12 lost turnovers.   Stanford also has faced the tougher schedule having faced Kansas State in non-conference play compared to Washington ST who faced Utah St.  Stanford also faced arguably the top 3 teams in the PAC 12 – UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona State, while Washington St faced Cal, Oregon St, and Utah, and they have the common opponent of USC, who Stanford beat, and Washington State got crushed by.  Again Washington St has proven they can hang in games when their opponent’s strength is running the ball, but if their opponent has a capable QB they have not.  Stanford’s Tanner McKee has been excellent and really a difference maker for Stanford, and I expect he will have a good game with some balance from the running game.  Stanford did beat Oregon, and I think many are already writing that off.

49ERS +6 BUY 1/2 5.5% NFL POD

South Carolina +10.5 MAX NCAAF POD

Get on the Tennessee hype train after they beat Missouri 62-24 last week, right?  80%+ of the tickets and the money is on Tennessee, but I think this line is inflated here.  South Carolina has been good to me this year, and I played them twice as a favorite going 2-0 ATS, and Shane Beamer has his team playing extremely hard right now and 8 out of the last 10 meetings between these two have been decided by single digits and there is no doubt that South Carolina has faced a far tougher schedule, which is giving us a bit more value on the spread.

Despite Tennessee wanting to run the ball more, they will face a very good South  Carolina defense ranking 18th in QB rating, and 4th in epa pass defense.  Their run defense on paper doesn’t look great, but their epa run defense ranks 43rd, which compare that with Missouri ranking 124th.  South Carolina does not give up big plays as they rank 3rd in the nation in 20+ yard plays so it’s going to take Tennessee a lot of plays to score TD’s, and I trust South Carolina to make some stops here.

South Carolina’s offense has been a struggle, and mainly because they haven’t gotten the running game going.  It’s understandable when you face three top 10 run defenses. Here they face Tennessee which ranks 33rd, but a closer look and you see that Tennessee really has not faced a good running offense outside of Florida who ran all over Tennessee.  Bowling Green ranks 130th, Missouri, and Pitt prefer to pass and are not running teams.  Missouri and Pitt also don’t slow the game down like South Carolina wants to do here, which is also going to make it very difficult for Tennessee to cover double digits in this game.  South Carolina is 125th in pace on offense.  South Carolina has also struggled in the red zone, but here they face a Tennessee defense that has allowed 71% red zone trips to end in a TD.  Last week was nice for Tennessee, but I think this team is really reading the press clippings.  Missouri’s head coach fired their DL line coach this week and called out his team for lack of effort.  The Tennessee offense going crazy had more to do with Missouri’s missed assignments, and just giving up, while I feel that won’t happen with South Carolina.  South Carolina had a hard-fought win last week and should have a chip on their shoulder and play with max effort.  I expect this to be a 4-quarter battle.

I also don’t think we should sleep on Luke Doty at QB, who is still not 100%, but starting to click with WR Josh Vann who leads the SEC in yards per catch at 21.

Shane Beamer and his staff are very familiar with the travel to Knoxville, Tennessee as he was a GA here, and while it’s not a huge note, it does make a difference.

Steelers +6 5.5% MAX POD

Kentucky +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

This will be a sell out crowd Saturday night at Kroger Field against a top 10 Florida team.  Mark Stoops has gone head to head with Mullen 7 times and is 4-2-1 ATS with an average margin of cover of 10.37pts.  This Kentucky brand has really been built up the last few years, and I think this may be their most balanced team yet.

From a statistical perspective Kentucky is really good at defending the run, which is what Florida is really going to be focused on here.  Florida ranks #1 in the nation in running the ball, and they do it with a physical ground attack led by QB Emory Jones, but I still think it’s very one dimensional, and the average opponent run defense they have faced ranks 91st in ypc defense.  If Kentucky’s excellent group of LB’s can contain Emory or set up some third downs I think they can force some turnovers as this is Emory’s first real road game.  They played at South Florida, but that was in their home state and there were more Florida fans there.

Kentucky offensively ranks 13th in ypc, and 26th in QB rating so they are a balanced offense.  Will Levis has had issues turning the ball over the last two games, but overall he’s added another dimension to the Kentucky offense, and he has the best WR in this game in Won’Dale Robinson.  Florida ranks 42nd in ypp defense, but on average they have faced 62nd ranked ypp offense.  This is a much bigger game for Kentucky than it is for Florida who has dominated the series, and has not lost here since 1986.  However, Kentucky won at Florida just 2 years ago, and Florida’s last 3 visits to Kentucky have been wins of 8, 1, and 5 points. 

Washington +7.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD 

New Mexico -1 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think the wrong team is favored here and New Mexico may go off as a favorite.  They are 0-3 ATS, and that automatically gives us value, but they are a team that just got shutout by Texas A&M and now face a UTEP team off a bye.  Both teams played New Mexico State, and while on paper it looks like UTEP is the better team, New Mexico played a more complete game. 

New Mexico will have the best player on the field in Terry Wilson at QB, the transfer from Kentucky, and he should be much more comfortable than he was a week ago at A&M.  Wilson has been solid this year 5td / 1 int, and goes up against a pass defense that has just 8 INT’s in the last 3 seasons.  In fact UTEP has been negative TO margin 6 straight seasons and are already -5 this year, while New Mexico is +4. 

UTEP also has a run heavy rushing offense, while New Mexico is only allowing 85 yards rushing per game, and really played well against A&M’s offense holding them in the red zone to FG’s in 2 of their 4 trips.  I think Terry Wilson gets comfortable and dominates this game.

Vikings +3.5 5.5% MAX NFL POD

Oklahoma St +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

We have a 0-2 ATS team facing a phony 2-0 ATS Boise State team.  I have not been impressed with Boise State thus far who really should not have covered either game.  Against UCF they were outgained by 290 yards and lost by 5 points and covered the spread thanks to a 14 point swing as they had a 100 yard pick six.  Against UTEP they enjoyed a +5 TO margin, and scored 31 points in a 3 minute span of the game.

Oklahoma State is getting no love here, and it’s exactly the situation I want to back Mike Gundy in.  Over the last 10 years he is 10-6 ATS as a road dog and 27-11 ATS in non-conference games.  This is also a better matchup for the weather as it looks like 15mph winds with 40mph gusts, and Oklahoma State has the better rushing attack and run defense, and feature a mobile QB in Spencer Sanders.  I think Boise State’s defense which ranked 25th last year in YPP, and 10th in sack % could cause some issues as they like to run confusing style defense with a lot of movement and could force a turnover here to allow them to pull the upset, but I expect a tight game and the +4 is well worth it.

Arizona +3 5.5% NFL POD

Arkansas +7 4.4%

TEXAS IS BACK!  We have heard this before, and this team is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS win, while Arkansas 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as a dog.  Arkansas will be hosting arguably their biggest home game in quite in a while as they host their old SWC rival.  This is a huge game for Arkansas, and as good as Texas looked in week 1, Hudson Card has to prove it on the road against a senior laden defense that was a top 50 pass defense last year and brings back 10 starters.

Texas is getting the majority of the money and tickets, and I think it’s because people think Arkansas win was misleading against Rice as they trailed 17-7 in the third quarter before rattling off 31 unanswered points.  A lot of their struggles were self inflicted as their first 18 drives averaged the 17 yard line.  They also had a punt blocked, bad snap on third down, and penalty issues that led to the poor field position.  They lost one of their defensive leaders due to targeting in Grant Morgan, but he’ll be back to start this game.  KJ Jefferson also seemed to have first game jitters that after he connected with Tyson Morris went away.  It seemed mental to me as Arkansas cruised after that.  PFF ranked KJ’s performance as the #1 QB rushing performance of week 1.  Texas stopped a relatively mobile Levi Lewis in game 1, but that’s not a huge part of Lewis game in 2018 he averaged just 1.6 yards per carry, 2019 2.83, 2020 he averaged 6.09ypc, but 50% of his yards came in 2 games so just because Texas stopped Lewis does not mean they’ll stop Jefferson who is a lot bigger than Lewis, and has a future 1st or 2nd round pick at WR in Treylon Burks.

Texas offense is not going to look as great here on the road.  Arkansas home/away splits are outstanding where they play significantly better at home as they allowed 6 passing TD and 9INT at home compared to 12/4 ratio on the road, and they allowed 1.55ypc less at home than on the road and held a Georgia running game to 2.88 to open last season.  They were without their 320lb starting DT Ridgeway last week, and get him back here, which should help free up the LB.  Speaking of health, Texas loses their starting RG who is questionable for this game.

Lastly, I really like the coaching staff at Arkansas, while Sark is great and has proven he can rebuild it’s just their second game.  OC Kendall Briles in his second year, and DC Barry Odom has led some very good SEC Defenses in the past.  This line also opened up at 4.5 and moved to 7, with resistance at some of the sharper books likes like Bookmaker.

Clemson -3 4.4% NCAAF POD

Georgia is getting a lot of hype for all the players they brought in, but there are some question marks I would still need answered to give them this type of respect.  The big one is about their QB and play calling from Todd Monken.  Is Kirby Smart really going to let him play call and let this offense go?  I think we will see more aggressive play, but is JT Daniels good enough and does he have the help around him for this game?  JT Daniels hype has always been a big thing he was the #3 QB coming out of high school behind Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Field.  He put together a great final 4 games for Georgia with 10 TD and 2 INT.  Great, but who did he actually do it against?  In his two road games he played South Carolina and Missouri with roughly 10,000 fans, and both defenses were not good at all against the pass.  In fact the 4 teams he faced ranked 95th, 106th, 58th, and 25th.  The top two pass defenses were not as good as the numbers suggest considering they faced an average opponent QB rating of 86th and 75th.   In the bowl game against Cincinnati we saw JT Daniels struggle under pressure.

Georgia has an inexperienced offensive line that ranked 73rd in passing down sack rate allowed and will go up against a Clemson DL that is #1 in havoc generated form the front 7.  Brent Venables is still here as the DC and not going anywhere so there is a lot of stability.  JT Daniels has really struggled in his career under pressure.  According to PFF, in 91 passes under pressure he has had 15 turnover worthy plays and just 26 completions.  Clemson’s defense returns 10 starters and ranked 8th in ypp allowed last year.  This is easily the best defense JT Daniels has ever faced in his life.

Clemson breaks in a young QB in DJ Uiagalelai, but he got two starts last year.  In those two starts he faced two solid pass defenses in Boston College at home, and Notre Dame on the road.  Clemson did not lose the game against Notre Dame because of DJ.  In those two games he had 69% completion percentage, 4 TD to 0INT, and 9.18 yards per play.  Clemson OL is a bit under sized, but I think they’ll use tempo here to their advantage against a Georgia defense that wants to stay fresh.  Georgia’s secondary was 51st in QB rating allowed last year and that came against an average 79th ranking QB rating opponent.  Alabama and Florida were the only top 2 passing offenses and they lost both giving up 41 and 44 points.  Georgia lost their top 4 CB’s in terms of snap count, which could be a good thing, but they brough in a pre-season All-American  Tykee Smith from West Virginia, but he’s out for this game, and they get Clemson CB Derion Kendrick to transfer in, but Kendrick in the big games in 2019 vs. LSU, and 2020 vs Ohio State was targeted by Fields and Burrow and he gave up 13 receptions 274 yards, and 5TD’s!!

I feel Clemson is still ahead of Georgia, and the price of -3 is nice.  Clemson almost has to feel like the underdog here.  This game is a neutral field