Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

8-Unit NFLX best bet on the Commanders +1 or the money line.

Betting on any team priced between the 3’s that is coming off a win by six or fewer points has earned a 65-32-2 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Fully aware that Baltimore is on a once-in a lifetime 24-0 SU run in the preseason, but this is the first time my predictive models have had targeted a foe to bet on when facing the Ravens. The Commanders have the motivation to win a second preseason game looking to generate much-needed fan support after so many dismal and pathetic seasons under the previous regime. So, let’s go with the Commanders and look for the SU win in this one.

Cincinnati vs Atlanta
8-Unit best bet on the Falcons minus the points, currently priced a 6-point favorites.

Betting on favorites that gained 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt and taking on a foe that allowed 73% pass completion in their previous game has earned a 24-8-2 ATS record for 75% winning bets in the NFL preseason.

From the predictive models, the Falcons are 18-3-1 ATS when they have scored 21 to 28 points in a preseason game. The Bengals are an anemic 4-16 ATS for just 20% when they have gained between 250 and 299 total yards in a preseason game.

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans
August 10, 2023 | 10-Unit Best Bet on the Patriots plus the three points and this bet is valid if the Patriots remain an underdog of not greater than 6.5 points

Betting on NFLX dogs between one and 6.5 points that are form the AFC Conference and facing a team from the AFC South have earned an outstanding 38-17-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2004 or 20 years. It has not lost, though, since 2016, going a remarkable 16-0 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 9.81 points-per-game.

Cincinnati Bengals vs NY Giants 

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Giants minus the points 

The predictive models show a high probability that the Giants will score 21 to 27 points in this preseason game. The Bengals are just 6-25 ATS in the NFL preseason when they have allowed 21 to 27 points. Giants have a new head coach, and he will be looking to continue to the positive momentum they generated in the first game defeating the Patriots in Foxborough 23-21.  

Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles minus the points. 

Betting on road teams in a game lined between the 3’s and is coming off a game in which they forced no more than one turnover in their previous game has earned a 37-15-2 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

The Browns defeated the Jaguars 24-13 and covered the spread as a 2.5-point underdog. The Browns are a miserable 3-15 ATS in preseason games coming off a double-digit win.  

Baltimore vs Washington

6:00 PM EST, Saturday, August 28, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Football Team plus the points

This is the first of many 4-Unit Best Bets I will be releasing for the NFL preseason games and MLB action for Saturday. So, please check back for those new releases. All of the best bets will be posted no later than 1:00 EST, Saturday and 10:00 AM EST, Sunday. 

Let’s get right into the analytics and situational tendencies for this matchup. Underdogs that won their previous NFL preseason game by 6 or fewer points have earned a 27-7 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five preseasons. Underdogs that scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last two preseason games have earned a 135-80 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last 15 preseasons.

From the predictive models and machine learning applications, the Football Team is an outstanding and highly profitable 30-9 ATS for 77% winning bets when they have held an opponent to 5.0 or fewer yards per pass attempt.

NY Giants vs Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM EST, Sunday, August 22, 2021

4-UNIT play on the Giants plus the points

Consider making a combination bet with this underdog by placing 80% of your 4-Unit amount on the line and the remaining 20% using the money line. Over the course of the NFL season, these strategies will add more profit and increase the season-long ROI.

4-UNIT Best Bet on Minnesota using the money line

Betting on road teams in the NFLX that are coming off a game in which they scored three or fewer points and are facing a host that is coming off a double-digit win has earned an incredible 44-10-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the last 25 NFL preseasons.

From the all-knowing and highly intelligent database, we learn that Cleveland is just 3-15 ATS after a preseason double-digit win and that the NY Giants are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring in single-digits in their previous game spanning the last 25 preseasons.

7-STAR WAGER ON THE TAMPA BAY BUCS (119) AS THEY TAKE ON THE DALLAS COWBOYS IN NFLX ACTION SET TO START AT 8:00  PM EST, THURSDAY, AUGUST 29.

This situational query has earned a 41-10 ATS record for 80% over the last 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play against home team that that won their game by at least 10 points and is now playing a team that scored three or fewer points in the first-half of their last game. 

This situational query has earned 25-8 ATS record for 76% wins over the past 25 seasons and instructs us to play on road underdogs after allowing 14 or fewer points in their last game and are facing an opponent after leading in their previous game 14 or more points at the half. 

This situational query has earned a 21-4 ATS record for 84% over the last 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play against all underdogs after allowing 7.0 or more passing yards-per-attempt in two consecutive games.

From the machine learning summary the Bills are expected to score 24 to 30 points and hold the Lions offense to between 250 and 300 total yards. In past games, the Lions are just 4-20 for 17% when they have allowed an opponent to score between 24 and 30 points and are a miserable money-burning 4-13 ATS when gaining between 250 and 300 total yards in NFLX games.

7-STAR WAGER  ON THE NEW YORK GIANTS (251) AS THEY TAKE ON THE CINCINNATI BENGALS IN NFLX ACTION SET TO START AT 7:00  PM EST, THURSDAY, AUGUST 22.

This situational query has earned a 27-6 ATS record for 82% over the last 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play on all teams where they are installed between a +3-point dog and a -3-point favorite after a two game home stand and is now facing an opponent after playing their last game on the road. 

From the machine learning summary the Giants are expected to score 24 to 30 points and hold the Bengals offense to between 250 and 300 total yards. In past games, the Bengals are just 5-25 for 20% when they have allowed an opponent to score between 24 and 30 points and are a miserable money-burning 3-14 ATS when gaining between 250 and 300 total yards in NFLX games. 

The machine learning summary calls for the 49ers to gain between 150 and 200 net passing yards. The 49ers are 19-7 ATS in preseason games when they have achieved this range of passing yards. The 49ers are projected to outgain the Broncos by at least 0.5 yards per play and the Broncos are a money-burning 7-14 using the money line and losing a whopping 12.4 units per unit wagered when they have met this measure.

This situational query has earned a 30-11 ATS record for 73% wins over the last 10 seasons. The query instructs us to play against home teams installed between 3-point dogs and 3-point favorites after they allowed three or fewer points in the first half of their last preseason game.

Her is a second situational query that has earned a solid 39-16 ATS record good for 71% winners over the last 25 preseasons. It instructs us to play on underdogs including pick-em that allowed 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt in their last preseason game and are now facing an opponent that has gained 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt in their last two consecutive preseason games.

7-STAR ON THE LA CHARGERS (428) AS THEY TAKE ON THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS  IN NFLX ACTION SET TO START AT 4:00 PM EST.

The machine learning summary calls for the Chargers to score between 24 and 30 points. The Chargers are 18-5 ATS for 78% wins in past NFLX games when they have scored 24 to 30 points. The Saints are just 7-20 straight-up SU for 26% when they have allowed 24 to 30 points. Take the Chargers. 

7-STAR ON THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (908) AS THEY TAKE ON THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES IN NFLX ACTION SET TO START AT 7:00 PM EST.

This situational query has earned a 23-6 ATS record for 79.3% wins and has made the Dime Bettor over $16,000 in profits over the last five NFLX seasons.  The query instructs us to play on any team that is coming off a game getting outgained by the opponent by 150 or more yards. 

The machine learning summary calls for the Jaguras to have fewer turnovers than the Eagles. In NFLX action the Eagles are 1-15 ATS when they have committed more turnovers than the opponent. 

10-STAR ON THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (278) AS THEY TAKE ON THE CINCINNATI BENGALS IN NFLX ACTION SET TO START AT 8:00 PM EST.

The Chiefs and will have the second units Chiefs will be looking to further evaluate many of the defensive players that are competing for the second and third units. Head Coach Reed is an excellent player evaluator and has used the preseason to learn more about his team. The machine learning projectiosn also under score this fact indirectly projecting that the Bengals will not gain more than 90 rushing yards and will allow at least 24 points to the Chiefs. The Bengals are just 3-24 ATS when they have gained between 70 and 90 rushing yards and 4-20 ATS when they have allowed an opponent tto score 24 or more points in NFLX games. 

7-STAR ON THE DENVER BRONCOS AS THEY TAKE ON THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS IN NFLX ACTION SET TO START AT 10:00 PM EST.

The Broncos begin a new era under head coach Vic Fangio, who has been a defensive coordinator for 20 of the last 24 NFL seasons at the NCAA or NFL levels. His defenses have always been consistently among the top in many categories, especially scoring defense and fewest penalties. His NFL defenses have ranked in the top-5 in eight of the last 12 seasons in scoring defense and seven of the last 12 in yards allowed. Being a new head coach he will want to build excitement around his team and the fan base and no better way to do that is with wins in the preseason. 

A simple query that has earned a 44-20 ATS mark good for 69% wins over the last decade. This query instructs us to play on rad teams with a line between a 3-point dog and a 3-point favorite after a preseason win of six or fewer points. 

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
The Oakland Raiders (131)
OAKLAND (2 - 1) at SEATTLE (0 - 3)   
Week 5 Thursday, 8/30/2018 10:00 PM      
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
10 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 10-star wager on the Raiders using the line, which currently prices them as 3-point road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
Summary projection calls for the Raiders to win this game by 6 or more points.

Database System Query
Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a home win, with a winning record in the preseason playing a losing team.
25-6 over the last 10 seasons for 80.6%, +1840 per $100 wagered

Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss and a winning 25% or less  or has won just 1 game entering Week 5 action in the preseason.
21-5 over the last 10 seasons for 80.8%, +1550 per $100 wagered.

Methodologies and Subscriptions
If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, we have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports.
   
The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.
College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.
NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.
NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%
14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.
NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.
NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports
MLB 10-Star plays 9-5 or $4,130.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.
MLB 2018 7-Star 69-68 and 6.33 units x $700 = $4,4310
MLB 2018 5-Star 13-11 and 4.61 units x $500 = $2,305
MLB Overall 2018 $10,886.00

CFL 4-2 10-Star and $1,800

NFLX
4-2 ATS 7-Stars and $1,260
2-0 ATS 10-Stars and $2,000

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
Baltimore (112)
WASHINGTON (1 - 2) at BALTIMORE (4 - 0) 
Week 5 Thursday, 8/30/2018 7:30 PM     
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 7-star wager on the Ravens using the line, which currently prices them as 6.5-point home favorites.

SIM Projections and Results
Ravens are 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards since 1993; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when their defense allows 100 to 150 net passing yards since 1993; 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards since 1993.

Database System Query
Play on favorites in the NFLX after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game.
41-16 over the last 10 seasons for 71.9%, +2340 per $100 wagered.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
Miami Dolphins (103)
MIAMI (0 - 3) at ATLANTA (0 - 3)   
Week 5 Thursday, 8/30/2018 7:00 PM       
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 7-star wager on the Dolphins using the line, which currently prices them as 2.5-point road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Dolphins to score between 22 and 28 points. In past games where they have matched or exceeded these performance measures, the Falcons have gone 5-18 ATS in preseason games since 1993.


Database System Query
Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 and are off a road loss and have won 25% or less of their games in the preseason.
21-5 over the last 10 seasons for 80.8%, +1550 per $100 wagered.

Methodologies and Subscriptions
If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, we have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports.
   
The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.
College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.
NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.
NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%
14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.
NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.
NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports
MLB 10-Star plays 9-5 or $4,130.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.
MLB 2018 7-Star 69-68 and 6.33 units x $700 = $4,4310
MLB 2018 5-Star 13-11 and 4.61 units x $500 = $2,305
MLB Overall 2018 $10,886.00

CFL 4-2 10-Star and $1,800

NFLX
4-2 ATS 7-Stars and $1,260
2-0 ATS 10-Stars and $2,000

 
John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
Cincinnati (279)
CINCINNATI (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 1)   
Week 4 Sunday, 8/26/2018 4:00 PM
        
Recommended Wager Strategy
10 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 10-star wager on the Bengals using the line, which currently prices them as 2-point road dogs. Projections call for the SU Bengals win, so if you get a money line of at least +135 consider an alternative wager consisting of a 7-star play on the line and a 3-Star play using the money line.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Bengals to have more than 300 net passing yards. The projections also confirm that Marvin Lewis will have far more vertical routes called in this game as evidenced by an expected 9.5 yards per pass attempt ratio.


Database System Query
Play against favorites in the NFLX after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins.
60-29 since 1993 for 67.4%, +2810 per $100 wagered.

Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off 1 or more consecutive unders.
53-28 over the last 5 seasons for 65.4%, +2220 per $100 wagered.
Methodologies and Subscriptions
If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, we have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports.
   
The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.
College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.
NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.
NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%
14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.
NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.
NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports
MLB 10-Star plays 9-5 or $4,130.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.
MLB 2018 7-Star 67-68 and 4.17 units x $700 = $2,919
MLB 2018 5-Star 13-11 and 4.61 units x $500 = $2,305
MLB Overall 2018 $9,354.00

CFL 4-2 10-Star and $1,800

NFLX
4-2 ATS 7-Stars and $1,260
1-0    ATS 10-Stars and $1,000

¬¬

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
Kansas City (265)
KANSAS CITY (1 - 1) at CHICAGO (1 - 2)   
Week 4 Saturday, 8/25/2018 1:00 PM
     
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on the Chiefs using the line, which currently prices them as 2-poiint road dogs.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary and past performance in these situations are as follows:
Chiefs are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1993.
Chiefs are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they allow less than 75 rushing yards since 1993.
Chiefs are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards since 1993.
Bears are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when they rush for less than 75 yards since 1993.
Bears are 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards since 1993.
Bears are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1993.

Database System Query
Play on road teams in the NFLX where the line is +3 to -3 and are coming off 1 or more consecutive unders.
52-28 over the last 5 seasons for 65%, +2120 per $100 wagered.



Methodologies and Subscriptions
If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, we have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports.
   
The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.
College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.
NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.
NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%
14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.
NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.
NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports
MLB 10-Star plays 9-5 or $4,130.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.
MLB 2018 7-Star 64-65 and 3.14 units x $700 = $2,198
MLB 2018 5-Star 13-11 and 4.61 units x $500 = $2,305
MLB Overall 2018 $8,833.00

WNBA 1-0 ATS    5-Star and $500.
WNBA 4-4 ATS    7-Star and $-280.
WNBA 1-1 ATS    10-Star and $-100
WNBA Overall $120

CFL 4-1 10-Star and $2,900

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Jacksonville (282)
NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) 

Week 2 Thursday, 8/9/2018 7:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 7-star wager on the using the money line, which currently has JAX installed as a 3-point home favorite

SIM Projections and Results

Projections call for New Orleans to rush the ball for less than 100 yards and that Jacksonville will have a minimum of 40 yards rushing advantage over New Orleans. IN past games, JAX has gone 74-22-5 when out rushing their opponent by more than 40 yards and getting at least 125 on their own merit.

More than 73% of the bets made to this point have been on the Saints. Whenever, the small public bettor is this enthusiastic about a team to cover the spread, it becomes a red flag for that team. So, being on the book side is always the preferred route, but ONLY if it aligns with the Algorithm gradings.

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, we have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports.

The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.

College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.

NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.

NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%

14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.

NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.

NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports

MLB 10-Star plays 8-5 or $2,950.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.

MLB 2018 7-Star 55-51 and 11.87 units x $700 = $8,309

MLB 2018 5-Star 10-8 and 3.40 units x $500 = $1,703
MLB Overall 2018 $12,962.00

WNBA 1-0 ATS    5-Star and $500.
WNBA 4-4 ATS    7-Star and $-40.

WNBA 1-0 ATS    10-Star and $1,000

WNBA Overall $1,990

CFL 4-1 10-Star and $2,900

The play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on Jacksonville (254) as they take on Carolina in NFLX action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will win this game.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following situation has gone 25-7 hitting 78% winners and has made 17.3 units/unit wagered since 2013.

Play on any team off a home loss.

And is now facing an opponent off a road loss.

Additional Data sets reinforcing this NFLX play on JAX

Carolina is just 2-17 ATS (-16.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points.

JAX is a solid  19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on New England Patriots (419) as they take on Houston in NFLX action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.

Upon occasion, there are times to add different wagering lies to create a combination wager that serves to reduce overall risk and enhance total rate of return. With the current line at pick-em and Houston favored by 1 point, there is no opportunity for that combination wager. So, simply wager a 7* amount on new England.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 25-5 ATS hitting 83.3% winners and has made 19,5 units/unit wagered since 2013. All of the data situations are specific to NFLX games only.

Play on any team.

The team is off off a home loss.

Facing an opponent off a road loss.

If we add that the team is playing on the road the results improve to 23-4 ATS for 85.2% ATS.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

New England is a solid  23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards.

New England is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points.

Take New England..

The play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on the Rams (276) as they take on the Cowboys in NFLX action set to start at  9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Rams will win this game.

With the Rams at +3 points and a money line of +130, the combination wager is a valid alternative to the straight 7* line wager. The combination wager would consist of a 5* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone hitting winners and has made units/unit wagered since . The system has also averaged an impressive .

The following game situations align with the data projections and statistical research for the outcome of this game. These data points are for NFLX results only.

Dallas is  1-12 against the money line (-12.0 Units) in road games when they allow 100 to 125 rushing yards.

Dallas is 2-17 against the money line (-20.9 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards.

Dallas is 6-19 against the money line (-17.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50 or fewer yards.

Additional Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Rams.

The news of Elliott being suspended by the NFL for a shocking 6 weeks reinforces how positively incompetent Goodell is as a commissioner of the NFL. I personally think, if he owned a funeral parlor, nobody would die. So, of course this will be appealed with the 3-day window and more than likely reduced to 4 games. No matter the result, it will impact the game plan for this NFLX game. In other words, Elliott will not see extensive playing time since he is not play the first 6 weeks of the season. It would serve no purpose and would only be taking a huge chance of getting him hurt.

New coach, Sean McVey is teaching a new and far more exciting offense to this year’s Rams team. The TE position will see a lot more targets than last year and now with Sammy Watkins arriving via trade, Ram fans have reason to expect significant improvements. After McVey was hired, they landed TE Gerald Everett with their first round pick. So, the bottom line is that defenses will no longer game plan to shut down the Rams running game featuring Gurley. Instead, they will be forced to respect the pass and this will open up running lanes.

New coaches of teams that had losing records the previous season, want to make a positive impression in the preseason and get the fans excited for a successful season.

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on San Diego in NFLX action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Fran will win this game by more than 3 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 53-21 over the last 10 seasons good for 71.6% winners and made 30 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a losing record. Another proven system supports this play posting a 33-9 since 1993 good for 78.6% winners and made 23.1 units/unit wagered. Play Against any team (SAN DIEGO) - outrushed by their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/carry on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Fran is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1993. San Diego is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1993. Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. In head to head the road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points The 49ers players (excluding off-the-field activity) have much more at stake in this game than any of the Chargers with their roster pretty much solidified. The Niners still have Boldin and Smith as WRs to help the offense early in this game. Take San Francisco 49ers.

50* graded play on Jacksonville as they take Cincinnati in NFLX action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will win this game by 6 or more points.  

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-15 mark good for 72% winners since 1993. Play against road teams (CINCINNATI) after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bengals are 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points. JAX is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points

Fundamental Discussion Points Given the line is a skinny -1 ½ points, I see no problem if you would bet the ML instead of the line. The aforementioned system has gone 33-6 for 85% winners since 1998. JAX is 0-2 in the preseason and will look to get a win tonight for the home crowd. This is a common occurrence in NFLX action, especially with a team that is looking to be much improved from being a perennial losing one.

25* graded play on New England as they take on Carolina in NFLX action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that New England will win this game by at least 7. Brady will play, but Garopolo is the man and a vastly under rated talent.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-20 since 1993 good for 72.2% winners and made 30 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. New England is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1993; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt since 1993; 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards since 1993. Carolina is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards since 1993. Take New England Patriots.

25* graded play on Seattle as they take on Dallas in NFLX action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by at least 7 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-14 since 1993 good for 72% winners and made 20.6 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (DALLAS) - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games when they commit 2 turnovers since 1993; 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50 yards or less since 1993; 21-45 ATS (-28.5 Units) after playing a non-conference game since 1993; 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) off 1 or more straight overs since 1993. Seattle is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1993; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they rush for 125 or more yards since 1993; 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1993; 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1993. Garrett is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a non-conference game as the coach of Dallas. Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC. Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Take Seattle Seahawks.

25* graded play on San Francisco as they take on Denver in NFLX action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Francisco will lose this game by less than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these combination wagers using a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) off an upset loss as a home favorite, winless in the preseason. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Francisco is a very stout 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when they score 15 to 21 points. Denver is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog

25* graded play on the NY Giants as they take on the Buffalo Bills in NFLX action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Giants will win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-15 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) off an upset loss as a favorite, winless in the preseason. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 50 or less rushing yards last game.

25* graded play on Green Bay as they take on the Cleveland in Week 1 of NFLX action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Green Bay will win this game by more than 7 points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. These are all based on preseason games. Cleveland is just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when they gain 150 or less net passing yards; 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they rush for less than 75 yards; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they gain less than 200 total yards; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 150+ yards; Green Bay is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when they allow less than 75 rushing yards; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards; 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards.  

Fundamental Discussion Points Green Bay will not be playing many key starters for more than a series or two – if at all based on published local sports news. However, Cleveland is a team in disarray and even after I take out the starters for the entire game from the SIM Algorithm, Green Bay is still the better team. Of course there is the saying that ‘On any given Sunday…’ but today is Friday. Take Green Bay.

25* graded play on the NY Jets as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFLX Week 4 action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Jets will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and have a reasonable probability to win SU> Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager consisting of a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-8 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 1993. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second system that has gone 52-19 ATS for 73% winners since 1993. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record in the preseason. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.Philadelphia is just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points since 1993; Jets are a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1993. This game will be scrimmage featuring second and third and fourth units. I think at best you will see Eagles first unit offense on the field for one series. I do think the Jets will play their first unit for as many as three series. Eagles have several players on the roster bubble and they will see extended playing time as well. Ijust don't see Kelly showing the league anymore offensive schemes than he already has through the first three games of the preseason. Take the Jets. 

25* graded play on Houston as they take on New Orleans in NFLX action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM shows a solid probability that Houston will win this game. Given that they are 4 point dogs, consider making a combination wager comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-6 mark good for 81% winners since 1993.  Play on road teams (HOUSTON) after allowing 14 points or less last game and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. In previous NFLX seasons, Saints are a money burning 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1993. Take the Houston Texans.

25* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the Dallas Cowboys in NFLX action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that SF will win this game by 6 or more points.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this NFLX game. These situations include just NFLX games. Dallas is 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they allow 125 to 150 rushing yards;  6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers since 1993; SF is a strong 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1993;  20-2 ATS (+17.8 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards since 1993. So, look s like this game will feature the 49ers offense featuring a strong ground attack. A successful running game even in NFLX games sets up the play action pass that any QB and receiver can execute well. Playing in front of the home folks will be an added focus even though it is not likely to be sold out. Take the 49ers. 

25* graded play on the Philadelphia Eagles as they host the Baltimore Ravens in NFLX action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that the Eagles will win this game by more than 6 points. They easily put up 36 points in their first week win ands that was with a poor performance by backup QB Sanchez. Based on published reports he will get more snaps tonight and I expect him to be far better executing the offense and making throws.  Tebow actually looked good and did well in his fourth appearance. His throws now have a very tight spiral, but he has yet to learn the progressions on many of the plays. So, if the primary receiver is not open, he does not check down with confidence. I also expect great improvement in that category for him tonight.  Supporting this graded play is a proven Money Line system posting a 38-7 record good for 84.4% winners. Play against road underdogs of +155 to +325 vs. the money line after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record in the preseason. So, if you are a money line player, confidence is high the Eagles win this game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Eagles offense is high powered, but it is also fueled by a relentless ground attack too. Eagles are a solid 16-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they rush for 5 or more yards per attempt in the NFLX past seasons. Take the Eagles.

25* graded play on the Philadelphia Eagles as they host the Indianapolis Colts in NFLX action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. I do believe the Eagles will be a playoff team this season and that Bradford will have an all pro type season. Although he will most likely play 2 series to start this game, the Eagles have the best backup QB's in the NFL. Sanchez could start for many teams and then there is Tebow, who has looked very good in practices. HC Kelly even warded him player of the day in one of the camps practices just last week.  So, although there will be different personnel in the game, Kelly is going to use this game to test many combinations of players and will not take his foot off the gas. The running game will be featured as well. DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews will see limited time, but the Eagles have several backs they will want to evaluate. The depth alone of the Eagles offense is reason enough to back them this afternoon. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. In NFLX games played where the Eagles have gained more than 5.0 yards per rush they have posted a 15-5 ATS mark. Take the Eagles.

25* graded play on the Detroit Lions as they take on the NY Jets in NFLX action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIm shows a high probability that the Lions will win this game SU. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Detroit is a solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1993; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play since 1993. One of the keys here is that Detroit will work on more schemes in this game knowing they will have two road games up next. Getting off to a good win in front of the die hard Lions fans is a realistic goal despite this being a NFLX game. I like the Lions. 

25* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Atlanta Falcons in NFLX Week 4 action set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  I also like the 'OVER" in this contest as well. Although the parlay is attractive, I prefer making this a 25* play on Jags and a 10* play 'OVER'. With this much at risk already, it is not prudent to add a parlay to this opportunity. The simulator shows a high probability that the Jags will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-5 ATS mark for 86% winners since 1993. 49% of these games covered the spread by 7+ points. This under scores my strong belief that the Jags will win this game by double digits. Further, Jags a near-perfect 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better since 1993;  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1993. Borles will not see much action tonight as the game will be more focused on a heated competition for the third quarterback spot on the roster. However, when he is in the game, they will run the 'hurry up' scheme and against a second or evem mixed defensive unit, I see no reason why the offense under Bortles will not score with ease. He is the future of the franchise, but to the chagrin of fans, he may not appear again on the field of play for several weeks.  It’s been all positive so far this month for Bortles, the third overall pick who is 28-of-45 passing for 435 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and a 101.6 passer rating. So, I also like playing 'over' 5 wins on the Jaguars, who could be the surprise team in the Division and have the potential to finish second. The focus tonight will be defensively centered on Chris Posinski, who has struggled at safety, but it is certainly improved. He and several other starters will see more playing time. Further, on the offensive side, WR Brown is fighting for a sixth WR spot and should be targeted quite often tonight. This means that no matter, who is under center the Jags will be moving the ball through the air. The Falcons have no reason to play starters for more than just one series - if at all - on both sides of the ball. Take Jacksonville. 

A 6.0 magnitude earthquake has hit the Bay area and is the largest since the 6.9 quake that hit during the 1989 World Series. I certainly hope everyone is as safe as possible and for all of us to remember that sports are a privilege first. As sensitively as I can state, if they play the game, then consider this a valid play as outlined. It appears that the game is 'on' for this afternoon as there has been no news from the NFL or on the NFL site. 10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on the San Diego Chargers in NFLX action set to start at 4:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-12 ATS mark for 73% winners in NFLX action since 2008. Play on favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) after a game where they forced no turnovers. This is Week 3 and the 49ers have been sloppy through the first two weeks. This game will be more than a dress rehearsal for the 49ers and I fully expect them to play as if it is Week1 tonight. Matching the SIM projections is a game situation showing that the 49ers are a solid money making  17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards in NFLX games since 1993. Take the 49ers. 

10* graded play on the Houston Texans as they take on the Denver Broncos in NFLX action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that  the Texans will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager with an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* play on the Money Line for a 10.5* total risk amount. I am seeing ML prices of +275 so this offers a very attractive level for this opportunity. This combination wager adds more than 40% additional payout than a straight 10* unit play. There is a 48% probability that Houston will win this game and the payout is quite superior given the simulated odds. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-7 ATS mark for 77.4% winners making 17.4 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play against any team using the money line (DENVER) after allowing 6 points or less last game. The results of this system show the DOG winning the game by an average of 7 points. Here is a second system that has hit 81% winners for a 34-8 ATS mark since 1993. Play against home teams (DENVER) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last NFLX game and is now facing an opponent after a win by 10 or more points. This system has gone 6-0 ATS over the last three NFLX seasons and 11-1 ATS over the past five seasons. Take the Texans. 

10* graded play on the JAX Jaguars as they take on the Detroit Lions in NFLX action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. First, for those that don't already know this fact, I LOVE the "OVER' total wins for the season on JAX. This is a team that ended the 2013 season on an even 4-4 mark and are a vastly better football team entering this season. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a series of game situations matching the SIM projections for this game. JAX is a rock solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards since 1993;  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when they gain 300 to 350 total yards since 1993. I won't waste your time, but the matchups in tonight's contest favor the Jaguars at every level and every unit. Take Jacksonville. 

10* graded play on the Atlanta Falcons as they take on the Houston Texans in NFLX action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Falcons will win this game. Given this favorable projection,. I suggest using a combination bet consisting of a 7.5* amount using the line and a 3* amount using the money line for a 10.5* total risk amount. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-13 mark using the money line for 70% winners and has made 20 units/unit wagered averaging a +110 DOG play since 1993. Plat against all teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (HOUSTON) after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game and is now facing an opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. Houston got scorched 32-0 at Arizona in Week 1 and they played even worse than the score indicates on both sides of the ball. Atlanta di a nice job winning 16-10 in their Week 1 tilt against Miami. Most impressive was the Falcons passing attack that accounted for 288 rushing yards on 20-for-38 throwing. Houston defense allowed 326 passing yards on 27-for-34 throwing. Texans gained just 172 in total offensive yards with 90 on the ground and just 82 through the air. I strongly believe the same result will occur and although the score will not be a 37 point blowout, I do see Atlanta winning this game. Take the Falcons. 

10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they host the Philadelphia Eagles in NFLX action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-9 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2008. Play on favorites (NEW ENGLAND) after a game where they forced no turnovers. Simple, yet very successful. The following game situations match the parameters and projections produced by the SIM. Eagles have been a money burning 2-17 ATS (-16.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1993; 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points since 1993; Patriots are a solid 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1993. Eagles have  ton of injuries and several starters and key players will not be in the lineup tonight. This si not official news, but I can hardly imagine head coach Kelly putting 'dinged' players in harms way in meaningless action. Players I anticipate not seeing action are Macklin, Maehl, Cooper, Fluellen, and Polk. Even if only a few of these players are out of the lineup, it presents a chemistry issue for the units that will be playing. QB Foles will very erratic and one more week of practice is not going to get him anywhere near Game 1 ready. Take the Patriots. 

10* graded play on the JAX Jaguars as they take on the Chicago Bears in NFLX action set to start at 8:00 PM ET  The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this opportunity a combination wager using a 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line for a 10.5* total risk amount. Given the surge of small public bets coming in on the Bears, I feel you may be able to work a price of 4 1/2 points by game time. If not, the line will certainly not go below the '4' I am currently seeing. It is not that we need the extra 1/2 point, but shopping for the best price is always prudent. In NFLX action, JAX is a solid 18-9 against the money line (+10.0 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1993; 31-15 against the money line (+22.2 Units) after playing a non-conference game since 1993; 15-5 against the money line (+11.4 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1993. What I really like about this game is that QB Bortles will play the entire second half of this game. This will match him against second, third, and makeshift defensive units. I strongly believe he will be very successful in this situation leading to numerous scoring drives. In the Tuesday scrimmage the WR had by far their best day catching the ball. They already have  vastly under rated TE in Mercedes Lewis, but Barden has solidly moved into the 2-hole on the depth chart. I expect him to have a big night against the Bears second and third units. Take Jacksonville.

10* graded play on the New England Patriots as they take on the Washington Redskins in NFLX action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game outright. The line is skinny at +1 1/2  and if you want to play the dog money line for this affair, I believe that is a solid choice as well. Another consideration would be to play a 5* amount on the ML and the line each for a 10* total amount of risk. Noteworthy, is that NE is a solid 25-12 in NFLX action using the money line (+12.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1993. Jay Gruden will get to see how his offensive tempo will be tonight for the first time this season. The Washington starters will not play very much and I do not see them having a solid cohesive flow to their offense. First, in practice sessions, RG III has not done well on intermediate reads often times throwing into traffic instead of just stopping the play. The Redskins will going up against two talented, extremely physical defensive backs such as Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, Washington’s passing attack has better success with quick hitter, slant routes, check-downs when RG III makes the correct first progression. Here again, I highly doubt he will and he won't be in the game long enough to really get into a game flow. Further, Tom Brady will not start and backup Ryan Mallett will start and will see extended action, which does allow for the Patriots offense to get into a solid rhythm in this game. Washington was terrible in picking up receivers in space during two days of live-action practice against New England in Richmond. Mallett might not have the precision of Brady, but he looked very good in practices. Take the Patriots.