San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

6:30 ET | Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV

10-Unit Bet on the 49ers minus 2 points and if the money line is less than -130 (As in -125) use the money line.

5-Unit Bet Under 47.5 points.

I cannot prevent you from placing a parlay on these opportunities but would recommend not to as there are plenty of prop bets that add more than enough risk to our Super Bowl portfolio of bets. If you force me (LOL), I would prefer the teaser (Ouch, I cannot even believe I am writing that) where you tease down the 49ers and the tease up the total.

For Live betting consider betting 70% preflop on the 49ers as prescribed above and then look to get 15% more at +1.5 and 15% more at +4.5 points during the first half of action. Of course, you can bet say 80% preflop and then add 10% more at each of these levels and is dependent on how much you like the 49ers to win the game.

As for the Over bet I like betting 2.5 units preflop. If the game starts out terribly slowly on the scoreboard and the total drops to 39.5 points, I plan to BUY BACK that 2.5 units and play the middle between 39.5 and 47.5 points. The other strategy is to bet 2.5 units UNDER preflop and then look to add 1.5 units at 50.5 points and 1 more unit at 53.5 points.

Over the past five seasons, the 49ers and the Chiefs lead the NFL tied with 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed a 6 or more-point lead. The Chiefs had 3 games and the 49ers four games this season in which they and their foes enjoyed 6 or more-point leads. So, expect multiple lead changes and use the live game betting strategy detailed above if you agree with me.

I am a documented 22-5 ATS in the Super Bowls and that record is not a guarantee that this 10-Unit bet will win this year. My goal is always to see you bet with discipline and the reality that in a one game situation anything can happen. No one has a crystal ball. I do have massive databases and predictive models using machine learning and gaussian probability tools that have done extremely well over the course of a season and a calendar year. My 10-Unit MAX Bets have LOST 32% of the time on a 78-38 record across all sports and more than 4+ years of betting action. Make no mistake, I like the 49ers quite a bit, but it is another individual bet and will not have any impact to my season-to-date profits or my 2024 year-end profits.

The following NFL betting algorithm has earned a highly profitable 33-16 SU record and 33-14-2 ATS mark good for 70% winning bets over the past 10 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on any team lined between the 3’s.

·      That team is on a three or more-game ASTS losing streak.

·      The opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak.

Note, in the playoffs going back to 2003, the Under is 12-3 for 80% winning bets in a matchup where one of the teams is on a 3-game ATS losing streak and the opponent is on a 2 or more-game ATS win streak.

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 44-14 Under record good for 76% winning bets since 1989. The requirements are:

·      Bet the under in game where the total us priced between 42.5 and 49 points.

·      One of the teams (49ers) is coming off a home game in which they won the game priced as the favorite but did not cover the spread.

·      That team is facing a foe that is coming off an upset road win.

If the game occurs in the playoffs, the Under has gone a near-perfect 6-1 Under for 86% winning bets.

The Predictive Model Projections

The market at current pricing of 47.5 point total and the 49ers favored by 1.5 points reflects a 24.5-23 49ers win. In the NFL ranks, the 27-point scoring level is a significant pivot for many of the elite teams. For instance, over the past five seasons, the Dolphins own the best record when scoring 27 or more points producing a 24-7 SU and 26-3-2 ATS mark for 90% winning bets. Over the same period, the 49ers have gone 44-3 SU and 35-10-2 ATS and the Chiefs have gone 49-4 SU and 34-18-1 ATS for 65% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points. The Chiefs ATS win percentage is second-lowest to only the Minnesota Vikings, who are 32-10 SU and 26-15-1 ASTS for 63% winning bets.

The predictive models are calling for the 49ers to score 27 or more points and will gain more total yards and average at least 6.25 yards per play. In past games spanning the past five seasons, the 49ers are 20-0 SU and 17-2-1 ATS for 90% winning bets. The Chiefs are 4-5 SU and 1-8 ATS when they have allowed 27 or more points, gained fewer total yards and allowed 6.25 or more yards per play.

Teams that have produced a 14 or lower (better and more efficient) offensive yards per point ratio has gone 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS for 68% winning bets in the Super Bowl. The forecast is for the 49ers to produce a 13 or lower YPPT ratio. In the super bowl teams that have scored 27 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers have gone on to a 12-3 SU and 11-4 ASTS record good for 73% winning bets.

My expectations are that the 49ers wrinkle in this game and one that will not be surprising to the Chiefs defense is that they will start the game in a spread formation and not the ‘22’ formation. The ‘22’ is a formation where only one WR is set away from the line of scrimmage and with a pair of TE and RB packed in close to the ball. The reason is simply that Purdy will be able to see where the blitz pressure is coming from far easier than in a packed-in-the phone booth ‘22’ set. Eventually, I believe the Chiefs will have to commit one of their two safeties to support the run defense. When you see this happen during the game you can then expect play action and throw to a WR in man coverage and executing a vertical post or crossing route.

The Pizza Money Prop Bets

First and foremost, when betting the 49ers be careful not to add too many 49er player props. The mistake most people make is to add player props on the team they bet because they believe those prop bets will win too. One case in point is the 2007 Super Bowl when the Patriots came into the Super Bowl priced as 12.5 point favorites and lost to the Giants 17-14 priced as 12.5-point favorites. If you had bet the Patriot they obviously lost and if you added a plethora of plater props on aardy and company the majority of those would have lost too resulting in a significant financial loss. So, bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours.

Prop Bets

1.    McCaffrey Over 100 rushing yards +128

Currently at Bet ESPN, the odds for Christian McCaffery to rush for over 100 yards is +128. Note, that when McCaffrey has gained 110 or more yards nd his team has been favored by less than 10 points has seen that team (Panthers and 49ers) go 9-1 SI and 7-3 ATS for 70%. You can also bet any amount of yards that MaCaffrey will get with 90 yards having equal vig for the Under and Over bets.

2.    Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rushing yards.

This bet is almost akin to a hedge on our 49ers bet that if this bet wins it also could mean that Purdy is scrambling more than expected and that the Chiefs defense is not allowing an separation from the 49ers WRs.

3.    Kyle Juszczyk Over 3.5 receiving yards

4.    Travis Kelce Under 6.5 receptions (sorry Taylor LOL)

5.    Rashee Rice Over 66.5 receiving yards

Rice is the x-factor in this game and I think you will see the 49ers corner Ward mirroring him all over the field. This is a matchup (game within the game) situation that could determine the winner of the Super Bowl. For instance if Rice scores 2 TDs and has over 150 receiving yards the Chiefs more than likely win this game.

6.    Elijah Mitchell Over 1.5 rushing attempts

The Chiefs ranked 27th in defensive rush DVOA this season and will be without Charles Omenihu. Mitchell had at least 2 rushing attempts in the 11 games he suited up for and the 49ers will be looking to pound the ball between the tackles and force the Chiefs to bring up a safety.

7.    Kyle Juszcyk +2400 to catch the 49ers first reception

This bet is based on the first play the 49ers run from scrimmage is not a which player makes the first catch of the Super Bowl. So, even if the 49ers defer the coin toss and get the second possession of the game, this bet will be active on that first 49ers offensive play. In the last two games, Juszcyk has been targeted on the second play of the 49ers first drive. So, Shanahan has a solid history of mixing up his offensive tendencies in big games. The top-4 49ers are all priced exceptionally low and offer not much value to make that first catch, but Juszcyk is a monster value. $10 here and a winner buys a lot of pizzas.

8.    Highest Scoring Quarter will be the 2nd at +170

Since the 2001 Super Bowl, the highest scoring quarter has been the fourth averaging 15.5 PPG. The second quarter has seen an average of 14.9 PPG. The third has averaged 11 PPG, and the first quarter has averaged 7 PPG. The Chiefs went scoreless in 7 fourth quarters this season, scored 3 or fewer points in the 4th in 13 games, and in four games they did not score in the second half. Just last week in their winner over the Ravens they failed to score in the second half. So, that takes out the 4th quarter as a potential bet.

It has been mentioned far too often in the past two weeks or so that Shanahan is pathetic in comeback situations sporting a 1-35 SU record when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth quarter. The truth is all head coaches in the NFL that have been around for any stretch of time have posted horrid records in this trailing situation.

Andy Reid struggled to close out games with a lead and earn the win while the head coach of Philadelphia. Since 2019, he has become one of the greatest closers ion the history of the game going 41-1 SU and 35-6-1 ATS for 85% winning tickets when leading by 5 or more points through three quarters of action.

Most Games When Trailing By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter

1.     Bill Belichick 19-102 SU | 11-107-3 ATS (9.3%)

2.     Jeff Fisher 12-108 SU | 16-101-3 ATS (14%)

3.     Tom Coughlin 15-94 SU | 17-87-5 ATS (16%)

4.     Andy Reid 20-80 SU | 18-81-1 ATS (18%)

5.     John Fox 11-83 SU | 15-77-2 ATS (16%)

Lowest Win Percentages When Trailing by 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter

1.     Gruden 0-34 SU | 2-32 ATS (6%)

2.     Spagnuolo 0-29 SU | 4-24-1 ATS (14%)

3.     Mangini 0-29 SU | 5-24 ATS (17%)

4.     Hue Jackson 0-28-1 | 5-24 ATS (17%)

5.     Sparano 0-28 SU | 4-24 ATS (14%)

Most Games When Leading By 5+ Points Entering the Fourth Quarter

1.     Belichick 234-16 SU | 212-30-8 ATS (88%)

2.     Reid 183-21 SU |162-40-2 ATS (80%)

3.     Coughlin 115-14 SU | 106-21-2 ATS (84%)

4.     Shanahan 112-16 SU 95-31-2 ATS (75%)

5.     John Harbaugh 110-17 SU | 94-31-2 ATS (75%)

Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers

8-Unit bet on the 49ers minus the 7 points and is valid up 7.5 points.

Consider betting 75% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 25% on two parts consisting of 15% on the 49ers -4.5 points and 10% more at -1.5 points during the first half of action.

Home teams in the conference championship that failed to cover the spread in their divisional win and had fewer than 30 minutes of time of possession are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The only loss was when the team was on the road. The Green Bay packers traveled to Seattle to take on the Seahawks as 8.5-point underdogs and enjoyed a 16-point half time lead. How, the Seahawks stormed back with 22 second-half points (15 of them scored in the fourth quarter) and won 28-22. So, home teams in this role are undefeated and in any round of the playoffs have gone 17-12-1 ATS for 59% and

Supporting this bet on the 49ers is the following algorithm that has gone 25-13 (66%) SU and 25-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are:

·      Bet on home favorites in the playoffs.

·      Facing an opponent that won 5 or more games, but were outgained in the stats.

·      That opponent is coming off a home win.

If in the Conference Championship Game

Ø  11-3 SU | 12-2 86% ATS | 8-6 O-U

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

10-Unit bet on the Chiefs plus 3 or more points.

Consider betting 60% of your 8-unit bet preflop and then look to add the remaining 20% on the Chiefs at +6.5 and then 20% more at +9.5 points during the first half of action.

5-Unit Bet OVER 44.5 points.

Consider betting just 40% preflop on the total because the first quarter scoring in these Championship games sees the least amount of points scored. Then if the game does go accoding to plan, you will be able to add 30% more at 41.5 points and 30% more at 39.5 points at some point during the first half of action. The downside is that if the game starts out fast, you are likely to only have 40% bet on the Over preflop, but that also implies that bet will be winning by margin at the half.

CBS Sports noted that Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers was 0-31 SU when trailing by five or more points entering the fourth quarter and last week’s comeback against the Packer’s was the first time he and the 49ers overcame that type of deficit to win a game. However, this type of stat is a bit misleading starting with the fact that all NFL coaches and their teams have had few wins when trailing by 5 or more points entering the fourth. In 49ers history Mike Nolan went 0-27 and Dennis Erickson went 0-27, for instance. Bill Belichick went 19-102, Jeff Fisher went 12-108, Tom Coughlin went 15-94, and Andy Reid went 20-80 to round out the top-4 coaches records with 100 or more trailing by 5+ entering the fourth quarter.

Speaking of Reid, he is tops on the coaching list with 20 come from behind fourth quarter wins trailing by 5+ points. In case you were wondering Jay Gruden went 0-34 for his career when trailing by 5+ points entering the fourth quarter.

In week 16 on Monday Night Football, the Chiefs were priced as 11.5-point favorites and trailed by 20-7 entering the fourth and lost 20-14 to the AFC West Division rival Raiders. Ten of the 20 wins in this situation for coach Reid have occurred with the Chiefs and prior to that with the Eagles. With the Chiefs he is 7-3 ATS in those 10 games, so keep that in mind too if they are trailing entering the fourth.

Since 2019, the Chiefs have played in a league-high 32 games in which they and their opponents enjoyed 6 or more-point leads at some point during these games. What is remarkable is Reid has won 26 of these 32 games and went 17-9 ATS and 18-8 OVER. So, I do see many lead changes in this AFC Championship game against the Ravens.

Supporting this bet on the Chiefs is the following algorithm that has gone 31-39 SU and 49-21-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points.

·      Our dog has committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games.

·      The host forced zero turnovers in their previous game.

if the game occurs in the playoffs our dogs have gone 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Although just two games, these dogs have gone 1-1 and 2-0 ATS in the Conference Championship.

            Player Prop bets for Both games today:

1)    Bet Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing TDs -110

2)    Bet Mahomes OVER 25.5 completions +115

3)    Bet Kelce OVER 63.5 receiving yards -110

4)    Bet Pacheco OVER 15.5 longest rush -105

5)    Bet Pacheco Over 63.5 rushing yards -115

6)    Bet Goff OVER 2.5 passing TDs +300

7)    Bet George Kittle most receiving yards +550

Analysts will say that Kyle Hamilton will take away Kelce. Maybe. The fact that TEs have done well against this defense bodes well for Kelce. He’s had 71+ yards in each playoff game. The Chiefs will need him if they want to have a chance to score 20+ points.

Tampa Bay vs Detroit

3:00 PM EST | NBC
Ford Field, Detroit

10-Unit Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs +6 points and is valid to 4.5 points although a drop in the line at this point would be rare. Please remember to bet with your heads and ne er over it on every bet I provide, especially these 10-UNIT max bets which have hit 68% on a 76-35 record across all sports and over 4 years of betting action. This also means they LOSE 32% of the time abd to be completely honest, there is no way I nor anyone else knows with any degree of certainty that this play will win this afternoon. So, a reminder that is a marathon and that I have proven for many years that profits are achieved not in one day or one week or even a month, but over 12 months or a full season.

Let’s look at some of the betting systems supporting the pick from the predictive models.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that committed no more than one turnover in each of their last two games and facing a foe coming off a game without recording a forced turnover has gone 41-57 SU (42%) and 65-33 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Making this system even better is that it has had NO seasons in which it lost money and if the game has taken place in any round of the playoffs it has recorded an insanely great 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS record for 88% winning bets.  

If you have watched any my show appearances on ESPN Syracuse, SportsMap Radio, and Rotowire, you already know who important the metric called yards per points is to my predictive models. So, in the divisional round, road teams that have posted a defensive yards per point ratio of 20 or more over their last three games have gone 10-13 SU, but a healthy and profitable 15-8 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 20 years. A YPPT defensive ratio of 20 or more simply means that the team’s defense I playing at a high level and forcing their last three opponents to gain 20 yards on average to just 1 single point on the scoreboard.

If the dog in this situation is priced at 4 or more points they have gone 10-3 ATS for 77% winning bets in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

Teams playing the divisional round of the NFL playoffs that won their Wild card game by 21 or more points have gone 23-12 SU and 21-14 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. They have gone 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets with a total of 45 or more points. If our team is facing a foe that is allowing an average of 21 or more points over their last three games has produced an amazing 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS mark for 88% winning bets.

Green Bay vs San Francisco

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

8:15 PM EST | FOX
5-Unit bet on the Over 50.5 points and is valid to 51.5 points.

8-Unit bet on the Packers plus the 9.5 points

1-Unit optional bet on the Packers using the money line

Supporting the play on the Packers is a terrific betting system where betting on underdogs in the divisional round that are on a three or more-game win streak has earned a highly profitable 24-15 ATS record for 62% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Moreover, if our underdog is priced between 4.5 and 10 points they improve to a highly profitable 16-7 ATS for 70% winning tickets. If the total is 50 or more points, these dogs have been near-perfect going 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that have gone four consecutive games with no more than one committed turnover and facing a foe that is coming off a game where they forced no more than one turnover have gone 23-14-1 ATS for 62% winning bets. In games with a posted total of 47 or more points they have gone 14-5-1 ATS for 74% winning bets.

Betting the Over with any team coming off an upset win, which is Green Bay, and now facing a foe that lost their previous game by three or fewer points to a divisional rival has earned a solid 27-9 Over record for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is 45 or more points the Over has gone an exceptional 14-4 for 78% winning bets.

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

4:30 PM EST | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
M&T Stadium, Baltimore, MD

8-Unit Bet on the Texans +9.5 points and is valid to 8.5 points.

The line is not likely to move and if it does I do not see it going more than ½ point in either direction barring some major breaking news of a star player being ruled out.

Consider betting 6 units on the Texans preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or when the Ravens retake the lead during the first half of action. Another strategy is to bet 5 units on the spread and 1-unit on the money line preflop and then look to add the remaining 2-units if the Ravens attain a 7 or more-point first lead. The negative part of these strategies is that the Texans score first and never give up that lead.

This one is a jaw dropper for sure. Betting on teams in the divisional round that lose the same-season previous meeting by double digits and is now facing that foe on the rod and with a game total of 48 or fewer points has gone 5-6 SU and 10-1 ATS for 91% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Three of these matchups went into overtime.

On January 15, 2005 of the 2004 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers hosted the NY Jets as 8.5 point favorites and needed overtime to secure a 20-17 win. On January 14th, 2007, the Chicago Bears hosted the Seattle Seahawks priced as 8.5-point home favorites and needed overtime to win the game 27-24. The Baltimore Ravens hosted the Denver Broncos on January 12, 2013 priced as 9.5-point favorites and needed overtime to win 38-35. Notice that each of these games had a significant favorite matching the line for today’s game between the Ravens and the Texans.

The Texans lost to the Ravens on the road in the opening week of the season by the final score of 25-9 and failed to cover the spread as a 9.5-point road dog. Rookie QB CJ Stroud took that loss and used it to greatly improve over the course of the season and is now playing at an elite level. He finished the regular season ranked 8th with 4,108 passing yards and threw for 25 TDs with just 5 interceptions. He ranked 6th best with a 100.8 QBR and posted three game winning drives.

The weather will be in the mid-20’s and winds will be at 15 MPH at the start of the game, but will be decreasing throughout the game. So, I do not see this being a disadvantage for either of these teams. The Stadium is a bowl and the wind will be blowing from end zone to end zone, so there may be an added advantage for field Goal attempts with the wind. The wind can swirl in this stadium, but nothing like how unpredictable the wins are in the NY Met Life Stadium in the Meadowlands.

Teams that are on a three or more-game win streak coming into the divisional round of the playoffs and are priced as underdogs of 4.5 to 10 points have produced an 8-14-1 SU mark and a 16-7 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

Highmark Stadium, Orchard, Park, NY
4:30 EST | CBS
8-Unit Best Bet on the Steelers +10 points and is valid at 9.5 points.

Weather is going to be an issue with sustained winds of 12 to 17 MPH and a below zero wind chill. The wind will be out of the NNW and will make the one side play mostly downwind with a slight left to right breeze and into the wind with a right-left head wind. So, on kickoffs into the wind it will be nearly possible to achieve a touchback and more likely the receiver of the kickoff will catch the ball around the 10-yard line. I also think you will see lie drive squib type of kicks when kicking off into the wind.

Any field goal attempt with the wind has the potential be achievable from 60+ yards despite the frigid temperatures. Right-footed kickers can draw the ball spinning it so it curves right-to-left with the wind holding the amount of draw and resulting in a mostly straight kick. On long range kicks, they can slice the football aiming a bit outside of the left goal post and allow the wind to push the ball further and from left-to-right though the goal posts. The kicking game (including punts) will be a major factor in this game.

Tyler Bass is the kicker for the Bills and made 24 of 29 attempts (82%) and converted 49 of 50 extra points. For his four-year career with the Bills, he is 32 for 32 from inside 30 yards, 36 of 43 from 30 to 39 yards including three misses this season, 26 for 31 from 40 to 49 yards, and 12 for 19 from 50 and beyond.

The veteran Chris Boswell is the Steeler’s kicker and he had an excellent season making 29 of 31 field goal attempts and 27 of 28 extra points. Through 9 seasons with the Steelers he has made 62 of 62 from inside the 30, 64 of 71 from 30 to 39 yards, 73 of 93 from 40 to 49 yards, and 30 of 37 from 50 yards and beyond. Despite kicking on the road, Boswell brings a significant advantage over Bass in this game.

In the Wild Card Round, the underdog with the better defensive yards per point allowed ratio has gone 23-26 SU and 31-17-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. If our dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points they have gone 13-17 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets.

The team that has averaged fewer dropped passes per game and is priced as a road underdog has gone 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets in the Wild Card Round since 2019. The Steelers ranked third best in the regular season averaging just 0.94 dropped passes per game while the Bills averaged 1.67 dropped pass per game ranking 20th.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

4:30 EST | Fox| AT&T Stadium,. Arlington, TX
10-Unit Bet on the Green Bay Packers +7.5 points and is good at +7 points.

I do not expect that the lie will move against the Packers and if any movement occurs it will be attributed to the public bettors., who will be on the Cowboys.

I expect the Packers to get off to a solid start and score first. If they do score first, it would limit the live bet opportunity. So, I like simply making the 8-Unit bet preflop. Of course, you can bet 7 units preflop and save the last unit for live in game at a price of 11.5 points. Now, if they do not score first all is not lost either as 16 of 45 games played saw comeback wins by teams that did not score first.

In the wild card round teams that scored first went on to a 29-16 SU record and 24-20-1 ATS for 55% winning bets. If the team scored first via a TD, they went on to a 25-12 record and 22-14-1 ATS mark for 61% winning bets. Road teams that were tied or led at the half have gone on to a 30-11 SU record and 31-7-3 ATS (82%) including a 27-13-1 Under mark for 68%. Road teams that led by 6+ points at the half went on to a 20-6 SU record and 20-4-2 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2002. If the road dog led by 6+ points at the half, they went on to a 15-5 SU mark and 18-2 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2002.

Betting on road dogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the wild card round of the playoffs with a posted total that is higher than the dog’s average total during the regular season has gone 18-21 SU, 27-12 ATS for 69% and the Under has done well going 23-15-1 for 61%. If you like the Under, my recommendation is to wait and look to get a number closer to 57.5 points during the first half of action.

Here is one of the best betting algorithms I my database consisting of more than 5000 across all sports and has earned a 17-20 SU record, but a 31-6 ATS mark for 84% winning bets since 2018. Bet on road dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games. If the game occurs in the playoff rounds, these dogs have gone 3-3 SU and 6-0 ATS with the Under going 5-1.

Buffalo vs Miami

Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL

8:20 ET | NBA
8-Unit bet on the Bills minus the 2.5 points and is valid up to 3.5 points.

The following betting algorithm supports a betting opportunity using the money line and has produced a 32-13 record good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 years. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road teams facing a winning record host.

·      The road team defeated the host in their previous game.

·      The game occurs in the second half of the regular season.

·      The road teams scored 35 or more points in their previous matchup against the host.

·      The total is 48 or more points.

The Bills are 24-20 SU and 26-17-1 ATS for 61% winning bets when they have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games spanning games played since 2010. If they are facing a divisional foe in this situation, they have gone 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS for 65% winning bets since 2010.

From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games facing a divisional foe and matching or exceeding these performance expectations, they have gone on to an impressive 21-2 SU record and 19-4 ATS mark good for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

4:25 ET | FedEx Field, Landover, MD
8-Unit bet on the Commanders +13.5 points and valid if they remain a double-digit underdog.

Betting on divisional home dogs revenging a same-season blowout loss of 27 or more points in the final four weeks of the regular season have gone 12-11 SU and 14-8-1 ATS for 64% winning bets. So, don’t think that Dallas is just going to waltz into FedEx Field and get a double-digit lead early and coast to a win. Of course, that is a possibility, but the numbers beg to differ despite the Commanders being a horrible team.

The line for this game opened before the season started with Dallas a 3-point favorite at the Circa. Line movements of 7 or more points from the opening become fade or contrarian betting opportunities that have hit 65% ATS over the past five years.  So, these opportunities always look like bad decisions and they do lose 35% of the time, but over the course of the second half of the regular season, they have provided added profits.

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
4:25 EST | FOX
8-Unit bet on the Eagles minus the 4.5 points and is valid to -6 points.

Consider betting on the Eagles using the first half line to minimize the potential that the Eagles will pull starters at some point if Dallas does get out to double-digit lead. However, we are on Washington for a reason. Even if Dallas gets a 3 or more-score lead, they may even pull starters in the fourth quarter and giving Washington a shot at the backdoor cover. Just saying.

Betting on favorites that are scoring between 23.5 and 27.5 PPG and facing a foe that is allowing 23.5 to 27 PPG and with our team coming off back-to-back games in which 50+ points were scored in each game has produced a 75-22 SU record and 62-32-3 ATS record good for 66% winning bets since 2010. If the game occurs in the final four weeks of the season, our team has gone 18-5 SU and 15-7-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2010. If a divisional matchup our team has gone 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS for 73% winners.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
4:30 ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+

8-Unit best bet on the Steelers minus the 3.5 points and is valid up to 4.5 points.

Be careful presuming this bet is a winner before it starts simply because the Ravens may not be starting anyone from the first units. So, with that statement, consider betting 70% of your betting amount preflop on the Steelers and then look to add the remaining 30% if the Ravens score the first TD of the game or retake the lead at some point during the first half of action.

Betting on favorites that are facing a divisional foe that they defeated earlier in the season, is coming off two consecutive OVER results and with a total that is lower than each of the past two game’s totals have gone 46-33 for 58% winning bets since 1989. If the favorite is priced between 2.5 and 7.5 points, they improve to 40-10 SU and 34-16 ATS for 68% winning bets and 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS and 9-4 Under since 2015.

Arizona vs Philadelphia
Lincoln Financial Field
1 ET
8-Unit Titan Bet on the Eagles minus 13 points.

My recommendation is to bet 80% of your normal 8-unit bet amount preflop and the look to add the remaining 20% betting amount with the Eagles priced as 9.5-point favorites  or at whatever price is available if the Cardinals score the first touchdown of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action. Granted, this scenario is not likely to happen, but it never hurts to have the plan in place if it does.

I do see AJ Brown having a monster game against a Cardinals defense that struggles to cover anyone no matter if it is zone or man coverage situations. The Eagles will be in much better shape and nearly at full strength when the playoffs begin as they continue to get more starters returning from the IR.  So, with pizza money, I am recommending a bet on AJ Brown over 83.5 receiving yards.

Eagles are 28-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games. They are also 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS following three straight ATS losses over the past five seasons.

From the predictive model, the Eagles are 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past five seasons.

Miami vs Baltimore

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
1:00 ET | CBS
10-Unit bet on the Dolphins +3.5 points.

Consider betting 80% of your bet amount on the Dolphins preflop and then look to at 20% more at a price making the Dolphins a 7.5-point underdog or if the Ravens score the first touchdown of the game.

Bet on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points.

Our dog has allowed

Raiders vs Colts

1 ET
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
8-Unit best bet on the Raiders plus the points currently priced as 4-point underdogs.

I would bet 7-units preflop on this one and look to add that final unit using the money line if the Colts score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action.

Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games and facing a host coming off a game in which they did not force a turnover has gone 31-36 SU and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the season and is a non-divisional matchup, our road warriors have gone 17-15 SU and 25-7 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

49ers vs Washington

1:00 ET | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville

8-Unit bet on the Commanders plus the 14 points

Betting on teams that have failed to cover the spread by 33 or more points over their past five games and facing a foe that has seen their last three games play OVER by 30 or more points have gone 40-45 SU, but 60-24-1 SATS for 71% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons.

In the last four weeks of the regular season double-digit home underdogs are 15-62 SU, but a highly profitable 48-27-2 ATS for 64% winning bets and if the total in these games is 45 or more points, our home dogs with fleas has gone 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

NY Jets vs. Cleveland Browns

Thursday NFL on Prime
8-Unit Bet on the Jets plus the 7 points and is valid down to 5.5 points.

8-Unit Bet Under 36 points and is valid to 35.5 points.

Betting on road teams in the last four weeks of the season that are facing a host that is averaging 2 or more points per drive and has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 15-20 SU record and 23-11-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is a conference matchup these road warriors have gone 13-15 SU and 20-8 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Two of the best defenses in the NFL square off in this matchup and there is an opportunity to bet the Under. Betting the Under in a game involving a team that converted three or more fourth down situations in a win in their previous game has produced a 46-25-2 record fort 65% winning bets since 2002.  So, I suggest betting 75% of your normal bet size preflop on the Under and then look to get the remaining 25% at 41.5 or more points.

I do not play teasers often, but there is an opportunity for those of you who do enjoy the teaser bets.  Tease the Jets up to 13 points and the Under up to 42 points. As game time approaches Thursday, there may be better prices available enabling you to get 42.5 points and 13.5 points. If you choose to do the teaser, I recommend betting 2 units only and then reduce the 8-Unit bets on the Jets and the Under to 7-unit bets.

Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears
4:25 PM EST, Christmas Eve
8-Unit Best Bet on the Cardinals plus the points.

Did you know that dogs of 3.5 to 4.5 points in the final three weeks of the regular season are 40-41 SU and 58-23 ATS for 71.6% winning bets since 1990.  

Here is a first half line with a road team facing a host that is coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards and  is a solid ground attack team averaging 130 or more RYPG has earned a 35-11-1 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. So, if you like the Cardinals as I obviously do, consider betting them with a pizza money bet if the Bears score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action.

Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins

4:25 ET, Week 16 Christmas Eve

10-Unit bet on the Dolphins minus the 2 points.

Consider betting 80% of your bets size preflop and then look for Dallas to score the first TD of the game or retake the lead during the first half of action and then add the remaining 20% on the Dolphins.

Betting home teams coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe and the current game is a non-conference matchup has earned a 52-15 SU record and 47-18-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2009 or 15 seasons. If the game occurs from game number 10 on, these home teams have gone 20-5 SU and 18-6-1 ATS for 75% winning bets.

From the predictive models we are expecting the Dolphins to score 28 or more points and gain at least 8 yards per pass. In games over the past five seasons the Dolphins are 59-4 SU and 55-6-2 ASTS for 90% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. If the Dolphins have been at home they have gone 31-0 SU and 26-4-1 ATS for 87% winning bets.

The Cowboys have yet to defeat a winning record team on the road and have defeated just one team (Eagles) all season. They played horribly poor last week in Buffalo and were dominated on both sides of the ball. Moreover, they are averaging 40 PPG in home games and just 21 PPG on the road and is by far the widest differential of any team in the NFL this season.

The Cowboys scoring differential between home and away is the most since the 2014 Green Bay Packers posted a 17.1 PPG differential, the Ravens in 2004 and the 49ers in 1991 posted 16.4 PPG differentials. In 2014 the Packers won the NFC North Division and went on to defeat the  Cowboys 26-21 in the Divisional Round and then lost to the Seattle Seahawks 31-17 in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks lost the Super Bowl on the last play of the game to the New England Patriots. The 1991 49ers and the 2004 Ravens failed to make the playoffs.

[DB] Elijah Campbell (Knee) - Questionable [12/21/2023] => Campbell was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[DE] Emmanuel Ogbah (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Ogbah was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[OL] Austin Jackson (Oblique) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Jackson was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[CB] Cam Smith (Hamstring) - Questionable [12/17/2023] => Smith was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[CB] Xavien Howard (Hip) - Questionable [12/13/2023] => Howard was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

[WR] Tyreek Hill (Ankle) - Questionable [12/11/2023] => Hill was limited in practice on Friday heading into Week 16 versus the Cowboys.

From all my resources Hill is a game-time decision but has a 90% probability of playing in this critical game. Even if he does not start, the 10-Unit Bet is valid.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh

8-Unit Bet on the Steelers plus the points currently priced as 2.5-point home underdogs and is valid if they remain the underdog.

This will end up being a contrarian bet as the Steelers have lost four of their last five games and three straight. They have scored just 67 points over their past five games ranking fifth least in the NFL. The Bengals rank 8th most scoring 125 points over their last five games but are prone to regression in this divisional matchup. Tomlin has made some questionable head scratching calls, but no one can take away his ability to prepare his team on the defensive end in a must win game.

Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that have lost three consecutive games to the spread and facing a foe that has covered their last two games ATS has produced a 33-16 SU record for 67.3% winners and 32-14-3 ATS for 70% winning bets, including a 31-18 UNDER mark for 63% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If the foe has covered the spread in three consecutive games, then our home team has gone 17-10 SU for 63% and 18-9 ATS for 67% winning bets including a 16-10-1 Under mark for 62% winning best over the past 10 seasons. If a divisional matchup our home team has gone 16-6 SU and 15-4-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Here is a money line system that has produced an 86-37 record for 68% since 1990. The requirements are to be on home team that is facing a divisional foe that they defeated in the previous same season meeting and with that foe coming off a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points and with the game occurring in the last three weeks of the regular season. If our home team has a 0.500 or better record, they soar to greater heights posting a 68-25 record for 73% winning bets since 1990 and 10-4 over the past three seasons (71.4%).

Also, if our home team has struggled offensively scoring 70 or fewer points over their past five games, has a 0.500 record or better and facing a divisional foe from Week 14 on out, have gone 17-13 SU, 19-7-4 ATS for 73% winning bets since 1990.

Dallas vs Buffalo

8-Unit Bet on the Bills minus the 2-points.

Currently, 58% of the tickets but just 35% of the handle is on the Cowboys. The recency bias is a big factor in this game as the Cowboys are two solid back-to-back wins while the Bills held off a furious rally and strange officiating to get the ‘must win’ they needed. It remains a desperate now or never game for the Bills given that two 7-6 teams won Saturday in the Bengals and the Colts. They come in to the week ranked 11tnh in the playoff standings and after yesterday’s results are in the 9th position. With a win, they may remain in the 9th position, but with a loss, they would drop two positions to 11th. There is a myriad of playoff scenarios today, but if there are a few upsets, and the Bills win, they could be one of six AFC teams with 8-6 records with just three weeks remaining.

The Cowboys are a different team on the road going 3-3 SU and ATS, but are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in home games. The Cowboys are the most prolific offense averaging 40 PPG at home, but are 9th in the NFL scoring an average of 23 PPG on the road. The Cowboys’ scoring differential between home and away games is 16.2 PPG and is the widest in the NFL by 5 PPG to the second-widest differential of the Titans. Moreover, the Cowboys average 3 dropped passes per game on the road, which is the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys defense in road games ranks fifth worst seeing only 1.17 opponents drops.

From Week 14 on out teams that have a winning record but three or more less wins than their foe have gone 34-17 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If it is a non-conference matchup, their record soars to 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2004.

The predictive model projects that the Bills will score 26 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Cowboys. In past home games since 2019 in which the Bills have scored 26 or more points and have had the same or fewer turnovers has led to an excellent 25-1 SU and 18-8 ATS record for 69% winning bets.

Commanders vs Rams
8-Unit Best bet on the Commanders plus the 6.5 points and is good down to 5.5 points. 5-Unit Bet on the Under currently at 50.5 points.

Betting on road underdogs that are facing a losing record team that has covered the spread in three or more consecutive games has earned a 50-57 SU record and 66037-4 ATS for 64% winning bets dating back to 1990 and is 14-6 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons.

As for the Under bet the Commanders are the worst defensive team in the league, but they do matchup well against this Rams offense. They rank 32nd in scoring defense, yards allowed per game, and points allowed per play. The Rams offense rank 30th with a 59% completion percentage and matchup against the Commanders, who rank 13th allowing 64% completions.

Betting the Under with a favorite of 6.5 to 9.5 points from Week 5 on out and is facing an opponent that has seen the total play over by 30 or more points spanning their last five games has earned a highly profitable 23-87 record good for 74% winning bets since 2017.

Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns

8-Unit Best Bet on the Browns mins the 3-points and is good to 4.5 points.

 Betting on all teams priced between the 3’s and now facing a foe that has allowed 14 or fewer points in each of their past two games has earned a solid 63-29-5 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the foe (Bears) had five or fewer dropped passes in their previous game, our team has then gone on to a 36-13-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the pat 10 seasons.

Green Bay Packers vs NY Giants

10-Unit Bet on the Giants plus the 6-points.

Consider betting this game by placing a 7.5-unit amount preflop at +6 and then look in game and bet the remaining 2.5 units if the Packers score a TD first or score a TD to go up 10-0 or if they retake the lead at any point during the first half of action only.

Betting on teams that are facing a foe that has won their last three games priced as a dog has produced a highly profitable 26-20 SU (57%) and 28-18 ATS for 61% winning bets since 1990. If our team is playing at home they improve modestly to 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS for 63% including a 17-6-1 Under mark for 74% winning bets. If our team is the dog or priced at pick-em they have gone to produce a highly profitable 13-11 SU mark and 18-6 ATS for 75% winning bets. If the game takes place from Week 9 on out, they soar to an incredible 8-7 SU and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets.

Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are slow starting ones being outscored by 5 or more PPG in the first half of action and after scoring 14 or fewer points in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 24-33 SU and 40-15-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
8-Unit bet on the Eagles plus the 3.5 points and is valid to 2.5 points.

Betting on road teams priced between 3- and 7-point underdogs that have two or fewer losses that defeated a divisional foe, who has three or more losses in the previous meeting have gone 17-13 SU and 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets.

Eagles are 7-0 ATS when on the road and following a game in which they allowed 30 or more points; 31-14-1 ATS following two straight games in which 50 or more points were scored. Cowboys are 16-38-2 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games.  

Eagles have played a much more difficult schedule to date than the Cowboys, who have yet defeat a team with a winning record. From my predictive models, we are expecting the Eagles to score 27 or more points and have an edge in time of possession. In past games when meeting these projections and also facing a divisional foe has seen them go 54-2 SU and 48-6-2 and since 2017 they have gone 12-0 SU as a dog.
Let’s bet the Eagles plus the points and should the Cowboys score a TD first in this game or get to 10-0 or 10-3 lead during the first half, then the money line for pizza money sized bet is a great opportunity.

Bills vs. Chiefs
4:25 PM EST
10-Unit Best Bet on the Bills at pick-em or a dog price.  If they do move to a favorite bet 50% of your bet size on the Bills, then look for any underdog price of 3.5 or more points for the Bills during the first half of action.

Buffalo is off the BYE and the Chiefs have not been playing well of late. Over a three stretch that began 5 games ago, they did not score a single point in the second half. Buffalo is healthier than they have been since the start of the season and are in desperation mode at 6-6 and truly playing with their season on the line.

The following betting algorithm has done quite well.

·      Bet on road teams facing a conference foe.

·      The road team has failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last four games.

·      The game occurs in December.

·       

51-47 SU  (52%)| 67-30-1 ATS (69%) last 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between pick and 7.5 points has seen our road team go 31-12 ATS (72%) and supports a bet on the Bills

Bills are 11-2-1 ATS in roads games following a game in which both teams scored 24 or more points; 22-7-1 ATS after allowing 35 or more points. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Bills to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met these performance measures in road games they have gone 49-5 SU and ATS and 15-4 SUATS for 79% over the past 10 seasons.

Lions vs. Bears

8-Unit Bet on the Bears plus the 3.5 points and is a valid bet if they remain the underdog.

Betting against favorites of not more than 4.5 points that are playing in week 14 and later and are coming off a road win and have a winning record on the season have gone 14-21 SU and 11-22-2 for 33% winning bets since 1989. If that false favorite defeated a divisional foe in a previous meeting, they underperform even more going 5-10 SU and 3-11-1 ATS for a miserable 21% winning bets. This all supports a best bet opportunity on the Chicago Bears.

Colts vs. Bengals
1:00 ET
8-Unit Best Bet on the Colts plus 2.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

Betting on teams coming off an ATS win in which they won the game outright by a single score , completed 30 or more passes in that win and now find themselves priced as a home favorite have gone 24-30 SU and 20-34 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.  If the total is 44 or more points in these games, our road warrior has gone 22-14 SU and 26-10 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.

Rams vs. Ravens
1:00 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams plus the 7.5 points and is valid down to 6.5 points and sprinkle the money line if the Ravens score a TD first in this game.

Betting on road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games have gone 16-19 SU and 29-6 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2018. If the total in these games is 40 or more points, these road dogs have gone 13-18 SU and 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018.

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers
8:20 ET | Prime
8-UNIT Best Bet on the Patriots +6 points.

I was holding my nose tightly given the stickiness of this road dog, who has won just two games this season. However, as we saw on Monday, which was not the first time, teams that look to have minimal chance of being competitive let alone have a chance to win the game outright, somehow find a way to shock NFL fans. I do believe this is one of those games.

Betting on road underdogs that have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their previous three games have gone 21-33 SU and 37-16-1 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2019. If our road underdog is priced between 3 and 9 points they have done even better posting a 20-5 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets and if the game occurs from Week 13 on out, these dogs with a serious case of fleas and badly needed bath are a perfect 10-0 ATS and 5-5 SU since 2019.

Betting on terrible teams that are priced between 3.5 and 10-point dogs and averaging 14 or fewer PPG on the season and scored fewer than 10 points in each of their last two games have gone 36-18 for 67% winning bets since 1990. If the game is occurring from Week 9 on out, these dogs have gone 12-15 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets.

Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville
EverBank Stadium
8:15 ET | ABC/ESPN
8-Unit best Bet on Jacksonville minus the 10 points.

Consider betting 70% preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 30% more at 6.5 or fewer points during the first half of action only.

Betting on home favorites from -5 to -12 points in a game with a total of 40 or fewer points that have covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and has won 60 to 75% of their games and facing a losing record team has earned a solid 31-6 SU (84%) and 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Betting on home teams that are facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 6 or more YPPL and was outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game has earned a highly profitable 29-13-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons.

The Bengals defense ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 6.41 yards per play.

I have been hearing and more importantly seeing that the offensive play calls are now being called by Doug Pederson and since this ‘rumor’ began to circle around the Jaguars offense has been quite good. In the past two weeks, the Jaguars have scored 58 points, they have won and covered 7 of their last 8 games with the only loss and failed cover to the 49ers, who are destroying everyone on their schedule since the BYE week three weeks ago. The Bengals have lost and failed to cover the spread in their last three games. Their ground game has all but disappeared and gained just 25 yards on 11 rushes in their 16-10 loss to divisional foe Pittsburgh. The Bengals D has allowed 153, 157, and 188 rushing yards in each of their last three games.

Pederson is 7-0 ATS after covering the spread in three of his last four games as the HC of the Jaguars; 10-1 ATS in home games when facing a foe that averages less than 1 turnover per game for his career.

From the predictive models we are looking for the Jaguars to have 100 or more total yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. In previous home games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these projections they have gone on to a 173-5 SU record and 146-28-4 ATS mark good for 84% winning bets since 2019.

Kansas City vs Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
8:20 ET | NBC
8-Unit bet on the Packers plus the 6 points and is good to 5.5 points.

Betting on dogs that are coming off two consecutive wins priced as the underdog in each one and has won between 40 and 49% of their 8 or more games played on the season has earned a solid 28-10-2. ATS for 74% winners over the past 30 seasons and is 6-0 ATS and 4-2 SU since 2019.

Chiefs are 1-7 ATS when coming off an ATS win and facing a foe also coming of an ATS win.

Chiefs are 0-6 ATS coming off a win in which that opponent had a double-digit lead.

Chiefs are 1-10 ATS coming off a double-digit win.

From the predictive model, the Packers are 29-2 SU and 27-4 ATS (87%) when scoring 21 or more points and forcing 2 or more opponent turnovers in home games since 2014.

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome
1:00 ET | FOX
Lions -4.5 | 47.5-point total

Betting on teams that have won 60% or more of their games after having played at least 8 games and is coming off a home loss have gone 63-28 SU and 61-28-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

The Lions defense has been getting better each week with the exception of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers. However, winning teams at this point of the season refocus after a humiliating home loss and get back on track. The Lions defense ranks 11th in the NFL having allowed 1038 yards after the catch or 94 yards per game this season.

On offense the Lions have been outstanding in the passing game ranking 6th with 1,411 yards gained after the catch. I do not see the Saints being able to contain the Lions ariel attack and see the Lions winning this one fairly easily.

Seahawks vs Cowboys
Thursday | Prime
8-Unit Best Bet on the Seahawks +7.5 points
5-Unit Best Bet on the Over.

Betting on road teams in a non-divisional clash that are coming off a divisional game and after this game they will take on a divisional foe (Sandwich) on the road has gone 16-9 ATS for 64% winning bets and the OVER is 16-8-1 for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

The Cowboys have looked like Super Bowl Champions in their wins, but then have struggled against losing record teams such as the Arizona Cardinals, for instance. This is a ‘sandwich’ game for both teams and serious regression spot for the Cowboys.

Betting on teams that have failed to covered the spread by 33 or more points spanning their last five games and taking on a foe that has seen the OVER go 33 or more points spanning their last five games has produced a 34-33 SU record and 47-19-1 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2010.

So, consider an in game pizza money parlay if you can get the Seahawks at 10 or more points and the total at 43.5 or fewer points during the first half of action.

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
8:15 ET
8-Unit Bet on the Chicago Bears plus the 3 points and is good down to 2.5 points.

Betting on road teams priced between a 3.5-point underdog and favorite that is coming off a road loss but covered the spread and with the game taking place in November has earned an outstanding 21-11 SU (66%) and 24-8 ATS record for 75% winning bets since 1989.

I only like betting the money line in-game if the Vikings score a TD first or go up 10-0 in the first half of action. So, making the 8-Unit bet preflop and then add pizza money sized wager if the Vikings do get off to a solid start.

The Vikings are just 17-23 SU and 11-28-1 ASTS fort 28% winning bets when coming off back-to-back games allowing less than 75 rushing yards in each game. The Vikings allowed 46 rushing yards on 15 attempts top the Broncos last week and 65 rushing yards on 15 attempts to the Saints the week prior to that one. They have also covered the spread in their last six games. Home favorites that are on a five or more-game ats win streak and facing a divisional foe that has won less than 40% of their games have gone just 4-10 ATS for 29% winning bets.

Let’s bet on the Chicago Bears and get the 3 points.

LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
4:05 ET Sunday | FOX
8-UNIT BEST BET on the Rams at pick-em (money line) and use the money line on the Rams whether the market moves to price them as a favorite or underdog.

Betting on a team that has failed to cover the spread in each of their last games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in two consecutive games and in a game priced between the 3’s has gone 31-14-3 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If the game is a divisional showdown, our team, the Rams, have gone 16-4-1 ATS for 80% winning bets.

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
12:30 PM ET | FOX
8-Unit Best Bet on the Lions minus the 7.5 points and is valid up to -9, but that is unlikely to happen.

Betting on favorites of 3 or more points and facing a divisional foe, are coming off a win, the last two games went OVER the total, and the last three games have seen the total lower than the previous game has gone 26-13-1 ATS for 67% winning bets. This total is priced at 47 points, last week the total was 48 points and week prior to that one the total was 48.5 points.

We were on the Chicago Bears as a 7.5-point dog and they were leading by 6 points entering the fourth quarter against the Lions, who came from behind and won the game. Teams that have exceeded their team scoring total line by more than 10 points over their last two games and are favored by four or more points against a divisional foe and are coming off a come from behind win in which they were trailing by 6 or more points at the start of the fourth quarter have gone 17-9-1 ATS for 65.4% winning bets.

Eagles vs Chiefs
8:15 ET | ESPN
Arrowhead Stadium
8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles plus the 2.5 points.

The Chiefs have had 23 games – most in the NFL - among 49 played since 2021 that they and their opponent both had 7 or more-point leads in the same game. So, this lends itself to multiple lead changes for this game against the Eagles. They are both the best team currently in the NFL and do think there will be lead changes during the first half of action. So, let the scoring volatility work for you and consider betting 70% on the Eagles preflop and then if KC scores the first TD of the game and it occurs during the first half of action then add the 30% remaining balance on the Eagles.

Betting on road underdogs that have gained 7 or more yards per pass in each of their last two games and facing a host that allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass in their previous game has earned highly profitable 53-25-2 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between 2 and 7.5 points, they have gone on to a 38-19-2 ATS for 67% winning bets.

Player Props
Under Travis Kelce 7.5 receptions -135
Over Mahomes passing attempts 37.5 -118 at FanDuel

Over Swift rushing and passing yards 77.5 at FanDuel.

Vikings vs Broncos

8:20 PM EST Sunday Night FB

Empower Field at Mile High, Denver

10-Unit best Bet on the Denver Broncos -2.5 points and is good up to and including -4.5 points.

Betting on losing record teams from Week 9 on out that are facing a foe that has won 50 to 60% of their games and coming off an upset home win have produced a remarkable 18-13 SU record and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our team is playing at home, their record has been 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS for 81% winning bets. If the game has a total of 45 or fewer points, our team regardless of home or away situation have gone 14-11 SU and 21-3-1 ATS for 88% winning bets.

Betting on home teams using the money line that are on a 3 or more-game Under streak, is scoring between 17.5 and 23 points per game and facing a foe that is allowing 17.5 to 23 PPG from Week 9 on has earned a highly profitable 32-13 SU and 31-13-1 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Cardinals vs Texans
1:00 ET | CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston
8-Unit Bet on the Cardinals plus the 6 points

The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 28-16-2 ATS record for 64% winners over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points

·      Game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season.

·      Our dog is facing a foe has a winning record in the current season.

·      That foe is coming off an upset win.

·      That foe won six or fewer games in their previous season.

If we drill down a bit further int the database and include games that had a posted total of 42.5 or more points has earned a highly profitable 16-7-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Cardinals vs Texans
1:00 ET | CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston
8-Unit Bet on the Cardinals plus the 6 points

The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 28-16-2 ATS record for 64% winners over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points

·      Game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season.

·      Our dog is facing a foe has a winning record in the current season.

·      That foe is coming off an upset win.

·      That foe won six or fewer games in their previous season.

If we drill down a bit further int the database and include games that had a posted total of 42.5 or more points has earned a highly profitable 16-7-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
Highmark Park, Orchard Park, NY
8:15 PM ABC/ESPN
8-Unit Best Bet on the Broncos plus the 7 points and good at 6 points. I do not see this line moving ahead of kickoff.

Bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are struggling on defense allowing 28 or more PPG have gone 75-36-3 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2015. If our road dog is in a matchup against a conference foe, their record soars to 57-21-1 ATS for 73% winners and if we drill further and include only games with a total of less than 50 points these dogs are a remarkable 43-13-1 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015.

Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover and facing a foe that has not forced a turnover in two consecutive games has earned a robust 21-21 SU record and 33-9 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs from Week 8 on out these dogs have garnered a wealth-building 24-4 ATS mark good for 86% winning bets.

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks
Lumen Field, Seattle
4:25 PM | FOX
8-Unit Best bet on the Washington Commanders plus the 6 points and is valid bet down to 4.5 points, although I do not see any significant change in the market ahead of kickoff.

Betting on road teams in a conference matchup that are facing home favorites of not more than 6-points that are coming off a humiliating loss by 28 or more points and with a total of 46 or fewer points has earned a highly profitable 38-19-2 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The best of all is the fact that these wounded teams have gone 0-12 ATS and 2-10 SU over the past 10 seasons. A rare situation, but one that has significant analytical meaning (p-Value and others)

Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
8:15 PM Prime Video
10-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the 3.5 points

Betting on any team that is facing a foe that has won 25% or fewer of their games, is coming off two consecutive road losses, and with the game taking place from Week 5 on out to the end of the season has earned a highly profitable 51-33-6 ATS mark for 61% winning bets since 2010. If our team is the underdog in this matchup, their record soars to 12-12 SU and 16-6-2 ATS for 73% winning bets since 2010. If the total has been less than 40 points, our team has gone an impressive 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets since 2010.

Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points that are allowing 28 or more PPG have gone 82-37-4 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our game has a total of 42.5 or fewer points, our road dogs have gone a near-perfect 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets since 2015 and is 8-0 ATS since 2016.

The Panthers have covered the spread just once this season. Teams with no more than a single ATS win in games played from Week 10 on to the end of the season have gone 23-25 SU and 34-11-3 ATS for 76% winning bets since 1989 and is 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2009 (15 seasons) and has not lost since Week 12 of the 2012 season. Since that loss, this system is 10-0 ATS!

Chargers vs Jets
Monday Night Football | MetLife Stadium
8:15 PM EST
10-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers minus the points

5-Unit Best Bet on the Under | No Parlay – not worth the added risk.

It is a fact that the 10-UNIT MAX Bets have done very well in all sports for more than four years of betting opportunities hitting 68.8% winning tickets. Do not make the mistake that these plays anything more than that you can also look at them as the fact they lost 31% of the time. No one including me, knows if this play is going to win or lose, but over the course of a season or calendar year it is likely that we will generate profits by betting each one as they arise in a disciplined manner.

With that said, I am offering a special subscription for just $300 to get the remaining 8-weeks of the calendar year all access to every NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL 10-Unit best bet, which is more than 50% of what you would pay.

I like betting Under in game during the first half of action at 42.5 or more points. So, consider betting 3.5 units preflop and then took to add 1.5 units at 42.5 points.

Also, consider betting 7-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 3-units at pick-em during the first half of action.

Last Sunday, the Jets and Giants played one of the ineptest games since at least 2000. The Giants managed to pass for negative yardage, which marks only the 7th time that any NFL team passed for negative yardage in a game since 1998. The last time any NFL passed for -9 or fewer yards was the Browns, who lost 48-0 to the Jacksonville Jaguars December 3, 2000.

So, home teams coming off a game in which they had 10 or more points, their previous opponent had 10 or more punts and with the current game total between 31 and 41 points has seen the Under go 13-4-1 for 77% winning bets.

There have been 85 games among the 8,754 games played or 1.0% where the teams combined for more punts than points scored since 1989. 

Teams that won a game in which there were more punts than points scored by both teams and now playing at home have gone 24-10-2 Under the total for 71% winning bets since 1989.

Justin Herbert looked at his best since suffering the grotesque injury to his fingers on his non-throwing hand. Granted the Bears were without their two starting safeties, but still Herbert was very accurate with all his passes. Jets defense has been great this season, but they have not been able to get off the field allowing 40% third down conversions. The Chargers are excellent in third down situations converting 41% of them on the season. The jets also are getting a sack on 6.94% of the plays ranking just 20th in the league. The Chargers OL is expected to protect Herbert well knowing the rank 7th in the league allowing a sack on just 5.6% of their passes.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers do get pressure on the QB more time than not and rank 12th with 7.90 sack percentage. The Jets OL has not been good in large part to injuries and allow a sack on close to 10% of their plays ranking 27th in the league.

Chargers are 7-0 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive Under results in games played over the past three seasons.

From the predictive model, there is a high probability that the Chargers will hold the Jets to fewer than 21 points and force at least two turnovers. The Chargers are 21-5 SU and 19-6-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when they allowed 21 or fewer points and 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have allowed 21 or fewer points and forced two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 1-20 SU and 2-18-1 ATS for just 10% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points and committing two or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. The Jets are 7-41 SU and 10-37-1 ATS for 21% winning tickets when scoring 21 or fewer points in games played over the past 5 seasons.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
4:25 PM EST, 8-Unit Best Bet on the Cowboys plus the points.
This is expected to be a great game between these two NFC East Rivals and there is a high probability of many lead changes. So, if that happens use that volatility to your advantage abdf consider betting 5 units on the Cowboys preflop and then add 1.5 units if the Eagles score a TD first to take a 7-0 lead, or kick a FG, then score a TD to go up 10-0 in the first half of action. Then look to get the Cowboys for the remaining 1.5 units at Dallas +9.5 points during the first half of action.

Betting on winning record road teams from Week 8 on out that are facing a host that coming off a divisional road win and has won 75% or more of their games on the season has earned an outstanding 30-12 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets since 2010.

Betting on road teams using the money line that is coming off a home win by 21 or more points from Week 6 on out has earned a highly profitable 40-22 ATS record over the past five seasons. If our team is priced as a dog, they have gone on to a highly profitable 15-12 SU and 19-8 ATS record good for 70.3% winning bets over the past five seasons. The clincher is if our road warrior is facing a divisional foe, they have gone on to a 7-3 SU record and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons.

LA Rams vs Green Bay Packers

1:00 PM EST, Lambeau Field

8-Unit best Bet on the Packers minus the points

Betting on favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is averaging 5.5 or more yards per play and was outgained by 100 or more yards in their previous game has gone to earn a 93-21 SU record and a 69-42-3 ATS mark good for 62% winners since 2010. If our home team is on a three or more-game losing streak, the record improves to 25-11 SU and 24-11-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 2010. The clincher is the fact that these home teams that have the foe on the second or more road game and that opponent having lost their last game, which was also on the road are a perfect 7-0 ATS.

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints

1:00 PM EST,
8-Unit best bet on the Bears plus the points

This is a highly contrarian bet that may make no sense at all, but let’s get into the numbers why the Bears are a terrific betting opportunity.

Betting on road dogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points and that have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 14-17 SU record and a jaw-dropping 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets since 2018. If a road dog of 7 or more points their record has been 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2018.

Before the NFL season began, the Circa puts out lines and totals for every game of the NFL season. This game opened with the Bears a 2.5-point dog and now has shot up 7 points to a current 9.5-point price. When the line change has moved 7 or more points from the opening, and the game is taking place from Week 8 on out, the ATS record of betting on these unwanted teams is a solid 65% ATS.

Betting on dogs that are facing a team that has gained 375 or more total yards in each of their last three games and are outgaining their foes by a 50 or more YPG on the season has gone 27-9-2 ATS for 75% over the past five seasons.

Chicago Bears vs LA Chargers

8:20 PM

10-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the nine points and consider adding a sprinkle on the money line during the first half if the spread gets to 11 or more points.

Betting road underdogs between 3.5 and 10 points that held each of their last three foes to less than 100 rushing yards have gone 26-5 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2018. If they are dogs priced between 6.5 and 10 points has produced an even better 11-2 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets since 2018.

Betting against home favorites between 3.5 and 10 points that are coming off a road loss and in a matchup of teams that have lost 60% or more of their games on the season has earned a solid 46-25 ATS mark for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If both teams have lost between 60 and 75% of their game son the season, these dogs soar to a highly profitable 23-6 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and up to and including 10 points that are allowing a pass completion percentage of 60% and higher and coming off a solid defensive game in which they allowed 5.5 or fewer yards per pass have earned an outstanding 49-27-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. If not a conference matchup, these dogs have gone 16-6 ATS for 73% winning bets.

Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss to a divisional foe; 13-28 ATS in home games following a terrible game in which their defense allowed 300 or more passing yards.

From the predictive models we are looking for the Bears to win the turnover battle and gain at least 135 rushing yards in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections has led them to an outstanding 14-4 SU and 14-4 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets.

Seahawks vs Browns

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Seahawks minus the points, currently priced as a 4-point favorite

Betting on a home favorite in a non-conference matchup that is coming off a double-digit win over a divisional foe has earned a highly profitable 39-15-1 ATS record good for 72% winning bets since 2009.

Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM, Week 8
8-Unit Best bet on the Texans -3.5 points

So, the Texans find themselves at 3-3 for the season and for the first time in many seasons have realistic expectations to make the postseason. However, the Jaguars lead the AFC South Division at 5-2 and the Texans must keep pace and stay ahead of both Colts abnd Titans, who are both at 3-4 in the division race.

The Texans QB, CJ Stroud, I shaving a solid season completing 127 of 213 passes for 1660 yards, nine TDs and just one interception. Overall, he has attained a 57.1 QBR for the season. In road games he has done much better completing 62% of his 109 passes for 771 yards, three TDs and one interception.

The Texans are coming off the BYE and have had two weeks to focus and prepare for this pivotal game. Moreover, road favorites coming off a BYE week and playing a winless team are 10-1 ATS and 11-0 SU. So, I like betting 80% of the 8-Unit amount preflop and then look to get the remaining 20% amount bet if the Panthers score first or retake the lead during the first half of action. If neither occurs, but the halftime line for 20% as long as it is not above a 6.5-point favorite.

The Colts have seen 26 lead changes in their games this season, which is tops in the NFL. The Panthers have experienced 14 lead changes, so the probability that the Texans may trail at some point during the first half is quite high.

New York Jets vs NY Giants

1:00 PM MetLife Stadium

8-Unit Best Bet on the Over the total currently priced at 35 points.

Betting on the Over in a game lined between 35 and 42 points with one of the team sin the matchup (Giants) getting outscored by 4 or more PPG and coming off four or more Under results has gone 87-42-2 Over for 62% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.

Minnesota vs Green Bay

1:00 PM

8-Unit best bet on the Packers plus the 1.5 points or if it is less than that consider the money line.

Betting on teams that have covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in their last two games and with the team (Green Bay) being priced between the 3’s has gone 30-12-3 for 71.4% winning bets since 2015. If in a divisional matchup, our teams have gone 14-3-3 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2015.

Tampa Bay vs Buffalo
8:15 PM Prime Video

8-Unit best Bet on the Bucs plus the 9.5 points

Betting on road underdogs facing a non-conference foe coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a solid 87-66-7 ATS record goods for 57% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and an 18-10-1 ATS mark for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. If a matchup of winning record teams, the road team has gone 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons.

A sprinkle on the money line is worth it as I do see the Bucs being vastly undervalued in this matchup.

Chargers vs Chiefs

4:25 EST

Globe Life Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

8-Unit best bet on the Chiefs

Betting on road teams that are facing a team that is outgaining their foes by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt and coming off a game in which they gained 7 or more yards per pass attempt have gone 72-40-2 ATS for 64% winners last five seasons. If in a divisional matchup, 22-7-2 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs LA Rams

4:05 PM EST, FOX

SoFi Stadium

8-Unit best bet on the Rams minus the 3-points

Bet on any team that is facing a winning record foe that is coming off an upset home win to a divisional rival

82-48 SU (63%) | 84-39-7 ATS (68%) since 1989

If the foe pressed the QB on

Arizona vs Seattle

4:05 PM EST FOX
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA

8-UNIT best bet on the Cardinals plus the 8 points and sprinkle on the money line

Betting against home favorites coming off a road loss in the first half of the season has earned a highly profitable 66-33-3 for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our team, the Cardinals, are coming off a SU and ATS loss, they soar to a 27-11-2 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. This is obviously a highly contrarian bet. Aside from the sentiment Python apps I run on Twitter to access the betting community’s appetite for specific teams, note that 60% of the remain 1785 Circa Eliminator entries are on Seattle.

If our team is also averaging a mediocre 15 or higher yards per point ratio on offense, betting on them has produced a 50-22-3 ATS record for 70% winners over the past five seasons.

MNF: Dallas vs LA Chargers

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

8-Unit Best Bet on the Chargers +1.5 points

Consider betting 6-Units on the Chargers preflop and then look to add the remaining 2 units if Dallas scores a TD first or takes a 10-0 lead or retakes the lead by 4 or more points during the first half of action.

Betting on teams using the money line following a game in which they forced three or more turnovers and now taking on a foe that committed four or more turnovers in their previous game has earned a 36-12 record for 75% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons. If the game has a total of 50 or more points, they have gone on to a near-perfect 6-1 SUATS mark for 86% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive model, the Chargers are a rock-solid 62-8 SU (89%) and 58-12 ATS (83%) winning bets in home games in which they scored 23 or more points and forced two or more turnovers.

Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

1:00 EST, Week 6

8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points, currently priced at +14.5 points.

Well, periodically, the numbers do point solidly to a dog, or perhaps better stated using the noun mutt, or a dog with a serious case of fleas, and this is certainly one of those opportunities. Carolina is winless at 0-5 and the Dolphins are 4-1 overall and 2-0 at home and considered by many to be the team to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC.

Betting on Dogs, with or without fleas, that are facing a non-divisional foe that has gained at least 450 total yards in each of their last three games and is also averaging at least 6 yards per play for the season have gone an amazing 11-15 SU and 20-5-1 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Several months ago, when the Circa and a few others released their full season betting lines, the Dolphins were priced as a 7-point home favorite. The market has moved the price to a whopping 14.5 points an increase of 7.5 points. I have studied and participated in the Circa and WestGate and numerous other contests and when the line moves 6 or more points from those opening preseason lines presents a sold contrarian betting opportunity. The market and betting communities over react and price the surging juggernauts higher than warranted and discount the talents of struggling winless teams too much– not always of course.

Winless teams on the road in weeks 4 through 7 of the regular season are 32-13-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the are priced as double-digit dogs has produced an 8-3 ATS mark for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

New Orleans Saints vs Houston Texans

NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the 2.5 points

Betting on teams priced between the 3’s that are coming off a loss of three or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 6 or fewer points in their previous game have gone 30-10 SU and 28-12 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. Home dogs in this role are 12-14 SU and 17-9 ASTS for 65% winners, and 17-8-1 Over the total for 68% winners. If priced as a four or fewer point dog, they soar to 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets.

Saints are 1-8 ATS when allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards and 1-10 ATS after allowing three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game spanning the past three seasons. Regression.

49ers vs Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM EST, Week 6

8-Unit Best bet on the Browns plus the 10 or more points

Watson is not starting, but the market has all of this priced into the current level of 10 points. The 49ers coming off a 32-point victory over the rival Dallas Cowboys and now will be facing a vastly underrated defensive unit that I believe can keep this game quite close no matter who is under center for the Browns offense.

Bet on home underdogs that are facing a foe that has defeated their opponents by an average of 10 or more PPG and with that foe coming off a double-digit win have gone 40-45 SU, 60-24-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foes win was by 21 or more points, these dogs have gone 22-28 SU and 34-15-1 ATS for 69.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If that foe is also averaging fewer than 1 turnovers per game have seen these dogs go 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets.

Green Bay vs Las Vegas

8:15 PM EST

8-UNIT BEST BET on Green Bay Packers +2.5 or more points.

Coming off a dismal NFL Sunday, but it is a reminder that no one is going to produce profits every week of any NFL season. Even in weeks that we have gone 4-1 or 5-0 ATS the results remind us that this is a grind, and that the success of any season is not dependent on one single week. I know all of you are quite used to my nagging (for very good reasons) and that discipline is the key. So, do not attempt to use this game to win back the losses over the weekend and at the same time, do not ever bet the profits made over the weekend on a MNF game.

Betting on underdogs that are facing a team that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game and has a defense that averages one or fewer turnovers per game on the season has earned an outstanding 33-32-1 SU record and a highly profitable 46-16-4 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is playing in a non-conference game, they soar to a 12-6-1 record and 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Here is the clincher, if our dog is playing on the road has produced a 9-3-1 SU record and a near-perfect 11-1-1 ATS mark good for 92% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive model, we learn that the Packers are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS when gaining 100 or more rushing yards and forcing two or more opponent turnovers in games played over the past five seasons.

Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers

4:25 EST

8-Unit best Bet on the Cowboys plus the points

Let’s get right to the point of this play and reveal a betting algorithm that earned a highly profitable 29-8-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and has covered the spread by an average of The requirements are to bet on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their four previous games and facing a foe that has forced no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games. If our team is on the road the results improve to a remarkable 18-13 SU and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on road teams that are facing a host that is gaining 1.75 or more yards per pass than their opponents and coming off two consecutive games in which they gained 6.75 or more yards per pass has earned a 29-26 SU record and 35-17-3 ATS mar good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive model, the Cowboys are 93-13 SU and 85-19-2 ASTS when gaining at least 125 rushing yards and forcing 2 or more turnovers and 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winners over the past five seasons.

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

4:05 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the NY Jets plus the points

Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s and with the host coming off two straight road tilts and with the game occurring between weeks 5 and 8 have gone 38-17 SU and 36-16-3 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, has covered the spread in just one of the previous three games, in a matchup of losing record teams, and with the host coming of two straight road games have gone 23-13 SU and 22-12-4 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive model, the Broncos are just 13-25-1 SU and 5-33-1 ATS when allowing 24 or more points and allowing 5.5 or more YPPL.

Eagles vs Rams

4:05 PM EST, 10/8

8-Unit best bet on the Rams plus the points

The Eagles offense has not been in sync for an entire game, yet they have scored points in every quarter of their 4-0 start, except the second quarter in Week 1 against the Patriots. Teams that have scored in 15 or 16 of the quarters played spanning their last four games, priced as a road favorite, and facing a non-divisional foe have gone 16-16 SU, 9-22-1 ATS for 29%, and a solid 20-12 Over record for 63% winning bets.

Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons -2.5 points

The following betting algorithm has earned a 36-15 SU record (71%) and a 36-12-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has not covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in three consecutive games and priced between the 3’s.  Drilling further down into the database, if the total in these games was 45 or fewer points, these teams went 17-5 SU (77%), 16-4-2 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team scored first in the contest, they went on to a 10-0 SU and ATS record and covered the spread by an average of 9 PPG.

NY Giants vs Miami Dolphins

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Giants plus the points

I know I will hear many moans on this one as we are backing a team that finds ways to play poorly in critical situations and find ways to lose games. Remember, I am betting on situations and not the mascot, and not if the team looked great or horrid in their previous game. That also applies to the great recent play by the Dolphins, who are on the precipice of regression too. The following betting system underscores the regression, and that the Dolphins recent offensive prowess is unsustainable.

The algorithm has gone 19-12 SU, but 5-24-2 ATS for 17%, and the Under has gone 21-9-1 for 70% winning bets. The requirements are to bet on underdogs in a non-divisional frey that are facing a team that has averaged 450 or more yards of total offense over their last three games and has averaged 6 or more YPPL on the season. If the matchup is a non-conference one, these dogs have chewed mercilessly on these false favorites to the tune of 9-4 SU record and a near-perfect 10-1-2 ATS mark since 2017. The clincher, if we even needed one, is the fact that if our dog is priced at 4 or more points, they have gone on to a 5-3 SU record and a perfect 7-0-1 ATS record.  

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

8:15 PM EST, 10/5

Prime Telecast
8-Unit best bet on the Chicago Bears plus the points

Certainly not a ‘sexy matchup’, but the analytics clearly point to a contrarian bet on the Bears plus the 5.5 points.

Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing an average of 28 or more points per game on the season have gone 47-89 SU (65.6%), 88-46-3 ATS (65.7%) over the past 10 seasons of action. If our road warrior underdog is facing a host coming off a home loss, they soar to 6-10 SU, and 12-4 ATS for 75% winners over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on road teams after allowing 6.75 or more YPPA in four consecutive games and now facing a foe that is coming off a game in which they allowed 8 or more YPPA has yielded a 35-31-1 SU record and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets since 1989. If in a non-divisional matchup, these dogs soar to 22-22-1 SU and 32-13 ATS for 71.1% winning bets over the past 34 seasons and has had just 3 seasons losing money.

Here is a second betting algorithm that ash done quite well earning a 26-19 SU record and 29-14-2 ATS mark good for 67.4% winning bets over the past 34 seasons. The requirements are to bet on dogs of six or fewer points that are coming off a loss in which the game played Over the total and with that dog having more penalties then incomplete passes.

Seattle Seahawks vs NY Giants

MetLife Stadium

8-Unit best bet on the Giants getting the 2-points

The Giants remained on the west coast after their historic come from behind win over the Arizona Cardinals to prepare for one of the best teams in the NFL, the 49ers, and on a short week. They lost that game, but were quite competitive during the first half, and are not fully rested for this game tonight at home.

Betting on teams that has not covered the spread in their last three games and taking on a foe that has covered their last three games and with the price between a 3-point favorite and underdog has produced a 30-13 SU record and a 30-10-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 8 years (since start of the 2015 season).

Betting on Underdogs that are struggling to gain yards in the passing game averaging 5.5 or fewer YPPA, is coming of a game where their defense allowed 8 or more YPPA, and now facing a foe that struggles to stop the pass allowing an average of 7.25 or more YPPA has produced a 42-19 ATS record for 69% winning bets. If our team is a home dog, they have soared to a money-making 18-7 ASTS for 72% winning bets.

The Giants QB, Daniel Jones is an inconsistent one and many others would say he is downright terrible, but this is a matchup ladies and gentlemen that he has the potential to shine brightly. This is a must-win game for the Giants to say within distance of the undefeated Eagles and one-loss Cowboys in the NFC East division. They lost their first two prime time games by a combined score of 70-12 and failed to cover the spread by a combined 44 points. So, they are rested, fully prepared, and I do expect them to put out their best effort of the season.

The predictive model tells us that the Giants when playing at home and scoring 23 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers then the foe has produced a 77-11 SU record (88%) and a 68-19-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets.

NFL Week 4

Steelers vs Texans

8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the points

Betting on underdogs of not more than 7.5 points that are facing a foe that won their last two games in the previous season, but missed the playoffs, and with the current game taking place in the first four weeks of the current season has produced a 13-5 ATS mark for 72% winning bets since 2018.

NFL Week 4

Ravens vs Browns

8-Unit Best Bet on the Ravens plus the 2.5 points

5-Unit Best Bet on the Over 38.5 points

For the Over bet I like making 2.5 units on the Over preflop and then given that these are divisional foes from a gritty and defensive-minded AFC North, look for a low scoring first quarter and to add 2.5 units to the Over at a price of 34.5 or fewer points.

Betting on a team priced between the 4’s (4-point favorite to a 4-point underdog) that is coming off a loss (Ravens) by three or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 6 or fewer points to their previous foe has earned a 36-18 ATS record for 67% winning bets and also produced a solid 37-14-3 OVER record for 73% winning bets

NFL Week 4

Minnesota vs Carolina

8-Unit Best Bet on the Vikings minus the 4.5 points

Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the Vikings and then during the first half look for -1.5 or bet the money line when the price is at -1.5 points.

Betting on favorites including pick-em that are scoring an average of 23.5 to 27 PPG, is coming off two straight games in which they and their foes combined for 50 or more points in each game and facing a foe that is allowing between 23.5 and 27 PPG has produced a 61-32-3 ATS record for 65.6% winning bets since 2010.

NFL Week 4

Commanders vs Eagles

8-Unit Best Bet on the Commanders plus the 9 points.

Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points that are scoring at least 28 PPG have gone 80-37-4 ATS for 68.4% winning bets since 2015. If a divisional matchup, the record soars to 34-10-1 ATS for 77% winning bets and if a divisional matchup facing an undefeated foe, the record is 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets since 2015.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons

Wembley Stadium, London

8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars -3 -115 and is the worst line I see right now.

 I do not believe the lines makers are going to move off of 3-points and instead raise the vig to -120 if necessary. If your book(s) have -3.5, then consider betting 5-unit preflop and then look to get 3 more units at pick-em or better during the first half of action (preferably the first quarter)

Intuitively, I am just not seeing why the Jaguars are not priced closer to 6 points and the reason is not due to their dreadful loss to the Texans last week at home. We were on the Texans and never saw a blowout win by the Texans, but I thought they had a shot at it. I am not sold on Ritter being a solid NFL quarterback and the offense ranks 26th in the league and a worse 29th in passing offense. The Jaguar’s defense is an average one by NFL standards and certainly much better than the Falcons offense. Plus, this is the Jaguars second home field and a serious advantage given the travel itinerary and logistics involved in getting to London and then situated comfortably. The Jaguars have played in London five times since 2015 and are 4-1 SUATS.

The Jaguars are 22-12-2 ATS for 65% winners from week 4 on out and facing a passing defense allowing an average 175 or fewer yards per game.

From the predictive model, we are looking for the Jaguars to score 22 or more points and out gain the Falcons by at least 1.0 yards per play. In past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a highly profitable 42-8 SU record and 39-10-1 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets.

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

8:15 PM EST, September 28, 2023 | Prime Video

8-Unit best bet on the Packers +2 points

Consider betting 6-Units on the Packers at +2 points preflop and then add 2-Units if Detroit is the first to score a touchdown. So, 7-0, 7-3, or 10-3 Lions’ leads during the first half of action only.

Betting on dogs in games played in the first four weeks of the season, that failed to make the playoffs last season, and won their last two games of that season have gone 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons. If playing on a short week, the home team (Packers) have gone 4-1 ATS over the past 10 seasons.

Creating a variation of this algorithm we learn that dogs in a divisional matchup that failed to make the playoffs in their previous, but did win their last two games of that season and with the current opportunity occurring in the first four weeks are 26-19 SU and 33-12 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Now, working against Detroit is the fact that teams that were not in the playoffs and won their final two games of the previous season and find themselves of no more than a 6.5 point favorite, playing in the first four weeks of the season are just 3-13 ATS and 6-10 SU over the past five seasons and 40-46 SU and 24-59-3 ATS for 29% over the past 20 seasons.

Some 1-Unit max pizza money best bets:

1.     Romeo Doubs +190 at DraftKings to score a TD

2.     Jordan Love to complete 20 or more passes -125 at BetMGM

3.     Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7 catches +102 at Bet Rivers

LA Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals

8:20 PM EST, Week 3

10-Unit best bet on the Rams plus the points.

My subscribers won another 10-UNIT MAX Best bet on the Alabama Crimson Tide who defeated Ole Miss Saturday bringing the 4+ year record to 59-27 for 69% winning bets across all sports. NFL 10-UNIT MAX Bets have hit 73% ATS over the past four years and this also means that these plays lose 27% of the time ATS. Over the course a season in any sport, they have a high probability of putting a lot more cash in your pocket than not. These plays are 4-0 this season in CFB and the NFL.

The following betting algorithm has done quite well producing a 20-9-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1993. Betting on road dogs of not more than 7 points that won six or fewer games in the previous season and is playing on Monday Night Football.  If the total in these games is priced at fewer than 50 points, these dogs have gone 17-7-2 ATS for 71% winnig bets since 1993. If our dog won just 5 or fewer games in the previous season, they have gone 7-2-2 ATS for 78% winning bets since 1993.

Here is a second betting algorithm that has produced a 62-62-1 record and an 84-63 SATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons.   and the requirements are to bet on road dogs in the first 8 weeks of the regular season that are facing a foe coming off at least one consecutive loss. If our road dog is priced at three or fewer points, they have gone to earn an outstanding 31-16 SU record and 32-12-3 STS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons.

From my predictive models, we are looking for the Rams to gain more than 100 rushing yards and to keep the Bengals under 100 rushing yards and for the Rams to have at least 33 minutes in top-of-possession. In games where they met or exceeded these measures has propelled them to a 11-1 SU record and a 9-2-1 ATS mark good for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons. When any favorite in the NFL has allowed these metrics as seen them produce a horrid 28-100 SU (22%), 15-113 ATS (12%) record and 0-7 SUATS on prime-time Monday Night Football.

Falcons vs Lions

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit best bet on the Falcons plus the 3.5 points

Betting on dogs in the first four weeks of the regular season that are priced as 6.5 or fewer points and facing a non-playoff team from last season that also won two or more of their last games in the previous season have gone 22-13 SU and 29-6 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Houston vs Jacksonville

1:00 EST

EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the points.

Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are scoring an average of 28 or more points and did not make the playoffs in the previous season have earned a highly profitable 33-64-1 SU record averaging a +450 dog bet on the money line and a 64-30-4 STS record for 68% winning bets  over the past 10 seasons. Not one season posted a losing money result following the discipline of this betting system.

Currently, the line is giving 7.5 points to the Texans and suggest placing 6-Units preflop at +7.5 points and look to get +10.5 points during the first half of action for the remining 2-Units.

New Orleans vs Carolina

8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points

No more than a 3-Unit Parlay Under in this game and Under in the second game, which is Cleveland vs Pittsburgh

Betting on underdogs of three or fewer points that are facing a conference foe that was not in the playoffs last season has earned a 32-22 SU record and 34-19-1 ATS mark good for 64% winners since 1992.

Of 82 head-to-head series in NFL history to have included at least 50 regular-season meetings, this is the only one which is currently tied -- 28 wins apiece. The Panthers have won three of the last four meetings while holding the Saints to an average of 11.5 points. The Panthers committed three turnovers in a season-opening, 24-10 loss at Atlanta. However, Carolina had only six turnovers at home last season, tied with Detroit for fewest in the league. It was their fewest ever at home even though 2022 marking the first time they played nine home games in a season.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

8:20 PM EST, Sunday Night Football

8-Unit best bet on the Patriots +2.5 points.

The Dolphins and Chargers each recorded 30 first downs in their Week 1 matchup (which Miami won, 36-34). It was the eighth regular-season NFL game since 1960 in which each team had 30 or more first downs and only the sixth such non-overtime game in that time. Mac Jones had a career-high 54 pass attempts in the Patriots' Week 1 loss to the Eagles. Including postseason play, the Patriots are 0-8 in games in which Jones has thrown 38 or more passes (16-9 when he has fewer pass attempts).

From the predictive model, we are looking for the Patriots to throw 30 or fewer passes and either gain more than 100 RY or gain more rushing yards than the Dolphins, and have no more than a single turnover. In past home games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 37-1 SU and 30-7-1 ATS for 81% winning under Belichick. The Dolphins are 4-40 SU, 4-39-1 ATS when allowing these measures since 2000.

Since 2000, the Patriots are 18=7 SU and 19-6 ATS when coming off a home loss in which they threw 35 or more passes under Belichick.

San Francisco vs LA Rams

4:05 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams +7.5 points and a little sprinkle on the money line.

The 49ers are just 5-20 ATS following a great defensive effort in which they allowed 50 or fewer rushing yards. They are 14-28-1 ATS when on the road and coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 10 points. They are 23-42 ATS in road games following a win by 14 or more points.

Teams playing in weeks 2 through 4 that are coming off a road win against a divisional foe are 40-14 SU for 74% and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home, the record moves higher to 33-9 SU for 79% winning bets and 28-13-1 ATS for 68% winning tickets over the past 10 seasons.

Puka Nacua became the fifth player in the last 60 years to record 10+ receptions in his NFL debut, along with Sid Banks in 1964 (13), Keke Coutee in 2018 (11), Anquan Boldin in 2003 (10) and Earl Cooper in 1980 (10).

The 49ers held the Steelers to only seven points in Week 1, generating five sacks and two interceptions. The only other season opener in the last 60 years that San Francisco's defense hit all these marks was in 2003 (7 pts allowed, 5 sacks, 3 INTs). The next game they faced the Rams on the road and lost that game 27-24.

San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans

8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total currently priced at 46.5 points

Betting the Over in a game with a total of 45 or more points, with the road team coming off a game in which they and their foe both had 27 or more first downs has earned a 13-23 SU record for 36%, 14-22 ATS for 39%, and 26-10 Over for 72% winners. Plus, if the game is a divisional showdown, the record soars to an amazing 13-3 OVER for 81% winners since 2000.

Tannehill posted his worst passer rating in Tennessee's 16-15 loss in New Orleans, which also marked just the third game of his career and first since his rookie season with three interceptions and no touchdown passes. The Chargers (0-1) have their own motivation. They haven't won in their past two trips to Nashville and are coming off a 36-34 loss to Miami where they gave up a league-high 466 yards passing.

From the predictive model, we are looking for the Chargers and Titans to combine for more than 700 yards of offense. In past games when the Chargers and their foe gained over 700 total yards has seen the OVER go 127-39 for 77% and the Titans have seen the OVER go 98-26 for 79% winners and these are projections without Eckler in the game.

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons

8-Unit Best Bet on the Packers plus 2.5 points

1:00 PM EST

Betting against non-playoff teams that won their last two games of the previous season and are favorites of not more than 6.5 points in weeks 2 through 4 have gone 7-15 SU and 4-18 ATS for 18% winners and failing to cover the spread by an average 6 points per game over the past 10 seasons.

Falcons are 3-17 ATS in home games coming off a double-digit win.

Green Bay (1-0) faces the Falcons (1-0) on Sunday, and their QB Jordan Love will be looking to build on the solid numbers he put up in a 38-20 victory at Chicago. He threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns in his second career start after backing up Rodgers the last three seasons. The Falcons find themselves in strange territory after opening the season with a 24-10 victory over Carolina. For the first time since the end of the 2017 season, Atlanta has a winning record. The Falcons are a young team that remains uncertain and in a rebuild mode. However, the Packers have the potential under Love, how got to study, watch, and learn from the departed Aaron Rogers and that showed immensely in Week 1.

The Falcons are building around their own young quarterback, Desmond Ridder, who passed for only 115 yards against the Panthers. Most notably, top receiver Drake Young failed to make a catch and was targeted only once and look for the Packers defense to minimize his catches today.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

8-Unit Best Bet on the Jaguars plus the points

Consider betting 6.5 units preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 1.5 units if the Chiefs score a TD first or the betting line gets to +7.5 during the first half of action.

Betting on home teams coming off a double-digit win to a divisional foe, total is 50 or more points and was in the playoffs in the previous season have produced a 34-6 SU record, 26-13-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990.

Jags head coach Pederson is a remarkable 15-4 ATS as a home dog for his career and 13-4 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 or fewer points for his career.

Supporting a sprinkle on the money line is the fact that teams coming off a road win against a divisional foe in the first four weeks of the regular season have gone 40-14 SU, and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 years.

No Super Bowl winning team has started out the following season 0-2 since the 1999 Denver Broncos, who were in rebuild mode after their legendary QB John Elway retired. The Chiefs fell to the Lions in Week 1, making them the second defending champions since 2000 to lose their season opener to a team that missed the playoffs the previous year. The 2012 Giants lost to the Cowboys in their season opener after winning Super Bowl XLVI. The Giants went on to a dismal 9-7 record, 7-8-1 ATS in 2012.

The Jaguars have a great coach in Doug Pederson, who won the 2017 Super Bowl as the herd coach of the Eagles and their roster is built to make a run for the AFC Championship game.

Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles

8-Unit Best Bet on the Vikings +7.5 points

8:20 PM EST

Betting on road teams in the first five weeks of the season in a matchup where both teams are playing on a short week, both teams had no individual player having more than 19 rushing attempts in the previous game have gone 16-14 SU, 18-10-2 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If our dog is priced between a 1 and 7-point underdog produces an 8-9 SU, 12-5 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.

Betting road underdogs that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game and facing a host that committed no more than a single turnover in their previous games has earned an outstanding 45-20-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. In 2022, this system went 14-3 ATS for 82% winners. In 2021, it went 11-7 ATS for 61% winners. In 2020, it went 9-1 ATS for 90% winners. In 2019, it went 11-9-1 ATS for 55% winners. Point is that this system has generated tremendous results over the course of a season and remember that this system has had 20 ATS losses over the past five seasons. So, on any betting opportunity, it is exactly that – an OPPORTUNITY and not a LOCK.

Betting against the previous season Super Bowl loser in weeks 2 through 4 and facing a foe that is coming off an upset loss are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 13 PPG over the past 10 seasons.

The Eagle’s defense is banged up and they were unable to generate any significant pass rush last week against the Patriots. Giving Cousins time to throw the ball and having numerous weapons to throw to starting with the NFL’s best receiver in Justin Jefferson is not a winning situation for the Eagles. Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell and safety Reed Blankenship are out with rib injuries while cornerback James Bradberry is in the concussion protocol. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable with rib injuries. The Eagles already placed linebacker Nakobe Dean (foot) on the injured reserve this week.

Replacing Bradberry is Josh Jobe, who has had just 24 totals snaps in the NFL, which by itself makes Justin Jefferson, rookie Jordan Addison, and TE TJ Hockenson primary targets and excellent Over Player prop bets for catches and/or betting Over receiving yards gained tonight.

If the Eagles elect to have Darius Slay mirror Jefferson, the first Slay will be out of position if lined up on the left side (defense perspective) and also puts Jobe in a new side of the field with no experience. The Vikings can utilize Jefferson as a decoy and force another backup at the free safety position, rookie Sydney Brown, to be used as deep help against Jefferson leaving Jobe on an island to cover Addison. Thius is a simple read for Cousins to make, especially if the Eagles defensive front does not get pressure on him with just their front four. If the Eagles need to bring linebacker blitzes, then look for Cousins to get the ball out quickly targeting Hockenson over the middle.

Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets
Monday, September 11, 2023
10-Unit bets bet on the NY Jets plus the points, currently priced as 2.5-point dogs

Now, this is a top-rated pick and we have seen an increase in scoring volatility with nearly 30% of games played seeing both teams enjoying 7 or more-point leads. Two games already in Week 1 saw this happen with the Detroit Lions scoring first and leading 7-0 and then the Chiefs roaring back to retake the lead 14-7. In the second game, the Vikings took a 10-3 lead after the Bucs opened the scoring 3-0 and then tied the game at the half and took the lead in the third quarter 17-10. This game has the potential for a similar back and forth type of scoring volatility so if it does happen let it work in your favor.

Consider betting 8-Units on the Jets preflop and then if they fall behind by 7 points on the basis of a Bill touchdown to start the scoring add another unit plus the points, and if that lead goes to 10-0 or 14-0 then add the final unit plus the points. I am not suggesting this will happen, but if it does jump on it as another betting opportunity, in my opinion.

Aaron Rogers is back with his former OC Nathaniel Hackett and former Packer’s WR Allen Lazard and WR Randall Cobb. The last time Rogers had an elite defensive unit playing with the Packers as back in 2010, which is also the year of the only Super Bowl ring Rogers has ever had. More, the Jets last season allowed the second fewest yards-per-play at 4.8 and just a couple of hundredths higher than the Philadelphia Eagles. So, even though this is the first game of the regular season, this Jets team – at least on paper – is much better than last year’s edition.

Divisional dogs in week 1 action are 15-13-1 SU and 18-11 ATS over the past five seasons. Home dogs over the past five years have gone 5-3-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over the past five seasons, 9-6-2 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons, and 20-19-2 SU and 26-15 ATS over the past 25 seasons. If our dog is priced at just 2.5 points or less, they have gone 9-2 SUATS for 82% winners over the past 25 seasons.

Rodgers is 6-0 ATS as a home dog and 43-27 ATS facing a divisional foe for his career. Favorites playing on Week 1 and on MNF have gone a terrible 14-11 SU and 7-16-2 ATS for 36% winners since 2009. Plus, if the MNF game is facing off divisional foes, the favorite is on a 5-5 SU record and 2-7-1 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If the favorite is taking on a host that had a losing record last season, the favorites are a horrid 3-9 ATS for 25% winning bets.

From the predictive model, one of the high probability projections call the Bills to have the same or more turnovers than the Jets. Favorites on MNF in week 1that had the same or more turnovers when on to post a 2-7-1 ATS record for 22% winners. The Jets are also 12-3 ATS as a home dog hosting the Bills and 8-1 ATS for 89% winners when hosting the Bills as a home dog and priced at 7.5 or fewer points.

The Flyboys are 71-12 SU and 69-13-1 ATS in home games in which they have scored 24 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past 20 seasons and 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS for 86% winners over the past five seasons.

Take the Jets and remember always to be with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours.

LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks
Week 1
Sunday, September 10, 2023
8-Unit best bet on the LA Rams plus the points, currently priced as 5.5-point dogs.

Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets.

Betting on dogs in Week 1 facing a divisional rival have gone 22-21-2 SU and 31-12-2 ATS for 72% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 5 PPG. If our dog is priced as 6.5 or fewer points, they have earned a 19-14-1 SU mark and 24-8-2 ATS for 75% winning bets and if a priced as a home dog of 6.5 or fewer points an outstanding 7-4-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets covering by an average of 8.3 PPG.

Betting on Dogs in a divisional matchup in Week 1 that lost both games to that foe last season have gone 18-33-2 SU, but 36-16-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Now, if priced as a home dog of  two or more points has gone 16-16-2 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% last 20 seasons and has produced a 7-4-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Tampa Bay Bucs vs Minnesota Vikings
Week 1

Sunday, September 10, 2023
8-Unit best bet on the Bucs plus the points, currently priced as 6-point dogs.

Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets.

From the predictive models, there is high probability that the Bucs will outgain the Vikings in total yards in this game. In past games over the past five season, teams that are priced as road underdogs and outgain their foes have gone on to a highly profitable 231-92-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. The Vikings are 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winners when outgained as a home favorite over the past 10 seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots

Week 1

8-Unit best bet on the Patriots plus the points currently at +4.5 points.

The Super Bowl loser generally starts the next season off with a bit of a hangover or perhaps it is more over confidence knowing they are a Super Bowl contending type of team. The Patriots had an off season by many standards, and they did add quite a few solid pieces to fill voids and weakness from last year’s roster.

The Super Bowl loser is just 2-10 ATS when playing on the road in Week 1 spanning the past 20 seasons and 1-5 if a road favorite of at least 2 points. Coach Belichick is 29-15 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 57-37 ATS as a dog for his career, 102-65 Ats in games played in the first half of the regular season.

From the predictive models, we are expecting the Patriot to score 21 or more points, their defense to hold the Eagles passing game to 250 or fewer net passing yards and for the Patriots to gain at least 4 yards-per-carry. In past games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures saw them go an impressive 100-15 SU and 87-27-12 ATS for 76% winning bets and 67-4 SU and 53-17-1 ATS for 76% winning bets if playing at home in Gillette Stadium.

The ’spine’ of the Eagles defense is the weakest part of their unit entering the season. They have had numerous personnel changes within the unit due to free agency and it is rare that any team can have solid chemistry and communication early on in the season. They also have five defensive starters aged 30 or more and the wear and tear of a long-standing career does take it’s toll on the human body. Two of those players re at the cornerback position with Darius Slay, who is still one of the best entering the season and James Bradberry on the right side, who was acquired as a cap casualty from the Giants.

Last season, 12.0 of Matthew Judon's 15.5 sacks were recorded in the first half of games, most in the NFL. Overall, Judon's 28.0 total sacks since the start of the 2021 season are tied for the most in that span behind T.J. Watt.

Tampa Bay Bucs vs Minnesota Vikings

Week 1

Sunday, September 10, 2023
8-Unit best bet on the Bucs plus the points, currently priced as 6-point dogs.

Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets.

From the predictive models, there is high probability that the Bucs will outgain the Vikings in total yards in this game. In past games over the past five season, teams that are priced as road underdogs and outgain their foes have gone on to a highly profitable 231-92-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. The Vikings are 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winners when outgained as a home favorite over the past 10 seasons.

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

8-Unit best Bet on the Texans plus the 9.5-points

Consider betting 6-Units preflop taking the points and then look to add 2-units at +14.5 points during the first half of action. Scoring volatility reached a new high last season and the trend has been moving higher in each of the past five seasons. So, let the back and forth scoring that is prevalent in a typical NFL game work in your favor.

Welcome to the start of the NFL season. I am coming off three strong seasons hitting 64% ATS as documented by SportsMemo and SportsCapping and others. I look to match those results and even do better, if possible, but please, there are no guarantees that will become reality. I am not being negative in the least, but being real with you and being transparent that sports gambling involves risks and events in games that are not predictable. Some will go in our favor, and some will not. I am confident to say that I am looking forward to another profitable season because have been profitable for my clients in 9 of the past 10 seasons in both College Football and the NFL. We won our first NFL bet with the Detroit Lions as a dog winning in outright fashion over the KC Chiefs.

We are 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets through two weeks of college football and 68% on 79-38 ATS record spanning the last three seasons as documented by sportsmemo and sports capping.

Betting on underdogs in the first three weeks of the regular season had a porous defense that allowed 390 or more total yards per game in the previous season have earned a solid 45-25-2 ATS record good for 64.3% winning bets since 2010. If our dog is play on the road they soar to 30-12-1 ATS for 71.4% winning bets since 2010. In addition, if our road dog is priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points, the record soars to 19-5 ATS for 79.2% winning bets since 2010.

Betting on dogs of 6.5 or fewer points in the first four weeks of the season that are facing a host that did not make the playoffs but did win their last two games of the regular season in the previous season are 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the past five seasons of action. Over the past 10 seasons, the record has been a highly profitable 22-14 SU and 29-6-1 ATS for 83% winning bets and over the past 20 seasons a record of 46-46 SU and 60-27-5 ATS for 69% winning bets.

Dogs in a week 1 divisional matchup are 22-21-23 SU, 31-12-2 ATS for 72% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 5.5 PPG and if the dog is priced at 6.5 or fewer points, the record goes to 19-14-1 SU and 24-8-2 ATS for 75% winning bets.

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs

8-Unit best Bet on the Lions plus the 4.5-points

Consider betting 5-Units preflop taking the points and then look to add 2-units at +7.5 points and 1-Unit at +9.5 points. Scoring volatility reached a new high last season and the trend has been moving higher in each of the past five seasons. The Chiefs have played in the most games (32) in which they and their opponents had a 7 or more-point lead over the past five seasons and I believe this game tonight will be another one of those types of up and down games.

Welcome to the start of the NFL season. I am coming off three strong seasons hitting 64% ATS as documented by SportsMemo and SportsCapping and others. I look to match those results and even do better if possible, but please, there are no guarantees that will become reality. I am not being negative in the least, but being real with you and being transparent that sports gambling involves risks and events in games that are not predictable. Some will go in our favor, and some will not. I am confident to say that I am looking forward to another profitable season because have been profitable for my clients in 9 of the past 10 seasons in both College Football and the NFL.

Betting on underdogs in the first four weeks of the regular season that are facing a foe that won six or more of their last eight games of the previous season and won 75% or more of their games last season has earned a 38-27 SU record and a solid 52-32-1 ATS for 62% winning bets. If our team is priced as a dog of 6.5 or more points.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles 

10-Unit 5% Max Best bet on the Eagles 

From my Predictive Models, 85% probability that Eagles score 28 and have same or fewer turnovers. Teamsin Super Bowls are 10-3 SUATS | 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS for Eagles last three seasons. Chiefs are 8-7 SU and 4-11 ATS 27% when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers last three seasons. 

 
Further down in this report, you will see the Live in-game sports bets that will help create a plan of action. I do like the betting strategy of putting down 50% preflop on the Eagles money line –120, then look for, or almost hope for the Chiefs to score a TD first. If that occurs, add 2 more units in-game, and if the Eagles blow a lead and are trailing or tied at that point, add the remaining 2 units.  
 
Another fact is that the average number of lead changes in the past 21 Super Bowls has been 3.65. There have been 7 of the past 21 that a team never had the lead. Tose games are in a spreadsheet in the attached document. However, this game has the potential for as many as 5 or even more lead changes. So, bet no more than 1 unit any time a team blows a lead. You will be creating a solid arbitrage betting on both teams and with lines highly better than what you are getting right now preflop.  
  If a team goes up 7-0 and the opponent answers to make it 7-7, that is a blown lead by definition in my database and you would then bet the team that blew the 7-0 lead. I would be careful adding any type of in-game bet if a team is down two or more scores. 

Last, I recommend an OVER bet if the first quarter ends up showing fewer than 10 points scored and will recommend an 8-unit bet if the quarter ends 0-0 or 3-0. There have been five Super Bowls in which the first quarter ended 0-0. The Over In-Game line is 5-0 and the pre flop Over is 4-1, which implies betting OVER 2nd quarter, and full-game OVER in-game line. 

This a rather comprehensive list of situational trends and angles that support the bet on the Eagles 

Teams that scored 30 or more points in their two previous playoff wins to get to the Super Bowl are 7-1 SUATS inn the Super Bowl 

The League MVP is just 6-15 SU and 5-15-1 ATS and 0-7 ATS last 20 Super Bowls | The last League-MVP to win a Super Bowl was Curt Warner and “The Best Show on Turf” LA Rams in 1999 | Since then, League-MVP’s are 0-9 SU and ATS | Works against Mahomes and the Chiefs 

Teams lined between 2.5-point-favorites and 2.5-point dogs that had the better defensive yards per point allowed for the season went on to a 5-0 SU and ATS record and 3-2 Over-Under – Favors Eagles 

Teams that scored in every quarter of their conference championship win have seen the Under go 13-7 (65%) in the Super Bowl| Chiefs and Eagles have scored in every quarter. 

Teams that scored in every quarter of their previous two playoff games has seen that team go just 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS, and 4-6 over-Under | Favors Eagles 

The team that averaged more points scored in the third quarter are 4-8 SU (33%), 3-9 ATS (25%) and 5-7 O-U |If the total is 50 or more, the higher scoring third quarter team is 2-5 SUATS and 1-6 O-U | Favors Eagles 

Team is the favorite and has won three of their last four games and facing an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 games has produced a 37-14 ATS record since 2010; 33-12 SU and 30-13-2 ATS 70% since 2013; 66-34-3 ATS, 73-30 SU (71%) since 1989 From Week 12 on and includes the playoffs 

The team with the lower offensive yards-per-play average is 16-5 SU, 14-7 ATS, and 9-12 O-U | Eagles 

LIVE in-game Super Bowl Betting 

Dogs that scored first went on to a 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS record with a 5-5 Over-Under 

Dogs that scored a touchdown first went on to a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS record and 3-4 O-U 

Teams that had more rushing attempts in the SB have gone 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS and 9-12 O-U |  

Teams that had more rushing attempts and with the total at 50 or more points has gone 6-1 SUATS and 1-6 O-U 86% under bets.  

Teams that had more rushing attempts and passes are 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS (77%) and 5-8 O-U 

Teams that had fewer passes went onto a 14-7 SYATS record and 9-12 O-U 43% 

Teams that had fewer passes, but more rushes went on a 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS. 5-8 Over-Under 

Teams that had scored 17 or more points by half time and ended the game with the same or fewer turnovers went on to a 7-SUATS record and 7-1 O-U 

Favorites that exceeded their team totals went 10-10 SU, 6-14 ATS, and 9-11 O-U 

Dogs that exceeded their team total went 11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS (71%) and 9-12 (43%) 

NY Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles  

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles minus the points 

Giants come into this game covering the spread in seven of their past eight games and this type of trend forces the betting markets to overvalue these teams. This is attributed to recencybias and we do have the Giants coming off a road win over what I believe was the most overrated 13-win team in the past 20 seasons in the Minnesota Vikings. Home teams that were in the playoffs last season and taking on an opponent that missed the playoffs in the previous season 26-6 SU | 20-12 ATS (63%) and In all rounds except SB, road teams that have covered the spread in 7 or more of their last 8 games are 3-10 SU | 3-9-1 ATS (25%). 

Eagles get their offensive line back to full strength with the return of all pro Lane Johnson and their ground attack is going to be ferocious tonight. The Eagles have been spectacular with Hurts under center identifyingwht the defense is doing pre snap. If the Giants show a cover 2 shell, the Eagles will run the ball between the tackles, if the Giants go to Cover 1 bracket, or Cover-1 Sam Will Blitz – Hurts will know with certainty that he has every WR in man coverage and can throw a deep ball for a vertical route or intermediate crossing pattern. Look for this to feature Eagles tight endGoedart isolated on one side and three WR on the other side of the ball. Don’t be surprised if the 3 WR are on the weak side of the LOS as this gives Davonte Smith an exceptional matchup against a linebacker or safety in man coverage.  
 

From the predictive model, the Eagles are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83%) in home games in which they gain 150 or more rushing yards and average at least 6.5 yards-per-play. So, look for the Eagles to exploit the ground attack and consider making a pizza money prop bet on Miles Sanders Over 66.5 rushing yards. Dallas Goedart Over 30 yards longest reception, AJ Brown Over 100 yards receiving +240, Devonta Smith Over 100 receiving yards +300, and Giants Richie James Over 4.5 +105 receptions – all at BetMGM 

Jacksonville vs Kansas City 

4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Jaguars plus the points and sprinkle a bit more ‘pizza money’ on the money line. I am waiting to place this bet till we get within about 3 or 4 hours of game time given that everyone’s aunt, uncle, and pet have or will be betting on the Chiefs today. I know that in several Las Vegas sportsbooks, Circa is one, that has a large exposure with teasers involving the Chiefs and the books will move this line even higher to avoid further imbalances on their books.  

So, one optional way to bet this game is to bet 50% preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 50% more if the Chiefs score first and it is a TD – not an FG. If the Chiefs score an FG first and then a TD for a 10-0 lead, then add the 50% in-game. Home teams that scored the first TD of a divisional round matchup go on to a rather unimpressive 19-18 ATS over the past 20 seasons.  

Betting on dogs between 7.5 and 11.5 points in a conference matchup (not the Super Bowl) that are facing the top seed are 2-5 SU and 6-1 ATS and 6-1 Under the total.  

Andy Reid, who might be understandably wary of this weekend’s matchup vs. the Jags, coached by one-time protégé Doug Pederson, both a QB and an assistant to Reid in the past.   
JAX lost 27-17 in Week 10 and failed to cover by the hook as 9.5 dogs. Since then, the Jaguars are much-improved team on both sides of the ball. They had week 11 BYE  
teams, like the Jags, that are in the DR and playing with same-season revenge from a road loss have gone 18-11-1 ATS (62%) last 20 seasons.  
 If that loss was by 3 to 10 points, these road teams have posted a 9-4-1 ATS record (69%)  
  
Since week 12 Jaguars rank 4th in the NFL with a 13.6 offensive YPPT behind only the Bills at 12.7 and the 49ers at 13.43.   
Defensively they rank No. 1 with a remarkable 31.5 YPPT ratio. The 49ers are 5th at 21.7, Bengalis 6th at 21.3, the Chiefs 16th at 17.7, and the Jaguars have the best YPPT differential over this span making them a very dangerous team getting a ton of points. 

LA Rams vs LA Chargers 

4% 8-Unit Bets Bet on the Chargers minus the points 

Home teams that are facing an opponent coming off an upset home win in a none-divisional matchup have gone an impressive 9-1 SUATS.  

From the predictive models, the Chargers are 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS when scoring 24 or more points and forcing two or more turnovers in games played since 2015 and 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS (81%) when scoring 24 or more points and forcing 2 or kore turnovers and having two or fewer turnovers in games played since 2015. 

Carolina vs Tampa Bay 

5% 10-Unit best bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs minus the points and consider the money line if the line would drop below 3-points 

After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season the Panthers made the playoffs. However, this is a team led by Tom Brady, who rarely has ever been swept by a divisional foe. Moreover, enough is enough, with this underperforming Bucs offense and I do expect them to put up much bigger offensive numbers than their season-to-date averages. 

Road teams in a conference matchup that are coming off an upset by 14 or more points re just 7-28 SU (20%) and 12-22-1 ATS (35%) over the past five seasons. Road teams coming off an upset win in which they gained 275 or more rushing yards are just 3-7 SUATS. Road teams coming off an upset home win in games played in January are just 7-28 SU and 13-21-1 (38%). Moreover, teams that lost the previous matchup to the current opponent have a win percentage between 40 and 49% on the season facing a losing record foe, and with our team having lost five or six of their last seven games has gone 10-3 SUATS for 77% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. 

From the predictive playbook, the Bucs are 26-3 SU and 20-9 ATS for 69% winners when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past three seasons. 

Jacksonville vs Houston 

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars minus the points 

Houston has beaten Jacksonville in nine-straight games going back to 2018, including a 13-6 victory in October this year. That is the Texans' longest winning streak against a single opponent in franchise history.The under for what it is worth has gone 12-4 for 75% in this situation in which the team has lost 7 exact games to the current opponent. If the total is 43 or fewer points, the Under is 8-3 for 73% winning bets.  

The Jags allowed three points in their previous game against the Jets in their 19-3 win and covered as 2.5-point road underdogs. They also allowed fewer than 3 points in week 2 in a 24-0 win over the Colts as 3-point home dogs. This is only the second time since 2006, that the Jaguars' defense allowed three or fewer points twice in the same season.  

Texans are 8-15 ATS following an upset road win. They did upset Tenn 19-14 as a 3-point road dog. Texans head coach Lovie Smith is 2-10 ATS for his career coming off an upset win regardless of location.  

From the predictive model, JAX is expected to gain at least 130 rushing yards and have the same or fewer turnovers. When they have met or exceeded these measures they have gone to a 15-5 SU mark for 75% and a 16-4 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

New Orleans vs Philadelphia 

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Eagles minus the points 

Teams from week 12 on to the end of the regular season that are coming off just their second loss of the season and have two losses total for the season bounce back with a 43-12 SU record and 33-22 ATS mark for 60% winners since 1990. Digging further home favorites of 7.5 or fewer points, coming off their second loss of the season, from week 9 on out, and facing a losing record foe is 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1990. Teams that have won 7 or more games than the foe and are coming off a loss and now playing at home are 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68%) since 1990 and a perfect 7-0 SUATS last 10 seasons. The eagles are 9-3 ATS in home games and have lost 3 of their last three games to the spread.  

From the predictive mode, the Eagles are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS when scoring 27 or more points and out-rushing their foes by at least 50 yards in games played since 2018. 

Packers vs Dolphins

5% 10-UNIT MAX bet on the Dolphins

Despite winning four of their last five meetings, the Packers are 5-10 all-time against the Dolphins. It is Green Bay's worst record against any active franchise. Moreover, Rogers has gone 18 consecutive starts without throwing for 300 or more yards and only Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke have more cumulative starts. So, Rogers is not playing at the levels of previous seasons when they were playoff contenders. 

The Dolphins are allowing 15.3 points per game at home this season, 16.2 points per game less than on the road where they have allowed 31.5 PPG. That is the largest difference in the NFL and the third largest by any team in the last 40 seasons. The 2018 Chiefs, 16.6, and 2009 Seahawks, 16.2. Dolphins are at home and this is good news for their quarterback Tua, now 0-4 in starts when the weather is below 50 degrees with a passer rating of 71.4. In starts with a temperature of 50 degrees or higher, Tagovailoa boasts a 17-7 (.708) record with a passer rating of 98.1 over those 24 games. 

Betting on favorites that are taking on a foe that has gone Over the total by 35 points in total over their previous five games has earned a 52-37 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the padst five seasons. If our favorite has won more games than their opponent, they go on to a 38-20 ATS record for 65.5% winning bets last five seasons. If a no-divisional matchup is added our favorites have produced an 18-7 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets.

Philadelphia vs Dallas

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Eagles plus the points

Betting on road dogs in a divisional fray that have outscored their opponents by an average of 15 or more PPG spanning their last three games have gone to earn a 27-16 ATS record good for 63% winning bets. 

Prescott has the most interceptions in the NFL (10) since returning from a broken thumb in Week 7 after missing five games. I also like the fact that Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is returning to the lineup from a shoulder injury. When he has injured I stated that he may be the most important player on the offense because of all the great things he does for the offense that do not get recorded in the box scores. His run blocking is the best in the NFL for TEs and I do expect Miles Sanders to get an above average amount of carries in this matchup. These run plays will attempt to get Goedert matched up against DE Micah Parsons, along with either the right or left tackle in a double team. Goedert will release his contact with Parsons quickly looking to get to the second level and open up gaping holes for Sanders to scoot through.  

Betting on underdogs including pick-em that are elite offenses averaging 6.0 or more YPPL and are coming off a game in which they outgained their previous opponent by at least 150 yards have earned a 38-14-1 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Dogs in a divisional game, averaging 5.75 or more YPPL, won the previous matchup in the same season, are 7-3 ATS for 70% winners.