Mets vs Dodgers

4:10 ET | Dodger Stadium

8-Unit bet on the New York Mets priced at +190 using the money line.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 24-18 record, averaging a +139-underdog wager has earned a 32% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $17,840 profit. The requirements are:

·       Bet on road teams facing a host that has won between 50 and 55% of their games on the season.

·       The home team has lost the first two games of a three-game series.

Consider betting 5.5 units on the run line and 2.5 units on the money line.

The following betting algorithm has produced a terrific and highly profitable 40-38 record averaging a +154 wager and earning the Dime Player a profit of $29,490 and a juicy 29% ROI since 2007. The requirements are:

·       Bet on home underdogs of 125 and greater.

·       The underdog is averaging 0.5 or fewer errors per game.

·       The underdog was shutout in their previous game.

Betting on the CWS with their anemic start and 0-4 record is a classic contrarian bet. They are facing the 3-1 Atlanta Braves, who are one of the favorites to win the NL pennant. The Braves took three of four games from as solid Phillies squad. Given this situation, the market has overpriced the Braves in this situation. There is no guarantee this upset will happen, but I can tell you with extreme confidence that if you bet these situations over the course of a month and a season they are going to come through with significant profits.

The Weather Forecast

The forecast is not good, especially for Wednesday where the Chicago region could get an inch ot more of snow. For Tuesday, rain and wind is expected right up to game time. The game may start an hour or so late, but based on current information the game will not be cancelled. If the game is cancelled, the same bet can be made when the next game takes place as long as the CWS are priced as 125 and greater underdogs.

10-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies as prescribed at the end of the report or on the +1.5 run line.

A Pair of NL East Divisional rivals square off to play a best-of-five series to determine, who will advance to the NLCS starting Saturday at 6:00 PM EST at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The weather at game time is expected to be 63 degrees with wind gusts up to 20 MPH out of the northwest throughout the game. The relative humidity will be extremely low at 25% so overall great weather for a baseball game.

This season, the NL East division was dominated once again by the Braves, who went 104-58 averaging a -165 wager, but earning only a 1.5% ROI. The Phillies earned the top wild card berth by way of a 92-72 record averaging a -121 wager but producing a -1.7% ROI. The scant ROI’s for both teams is a reflection of how well the market priced these teams over a 162-game season. The Braves played exceptional ball at Truist Park sporting a 52-29 record averaging a -184 bet, but a money losing -1.5% ROI. The Phillies played consistent baseball on the road going 41-40 averaging a -105 wager, but a money-losing 5% ROI.

The wind will be blowing out to left field and may be a factor for balls hit very high. The stadium, is quite high behind home plate and extends down both the first and third base sides and shields the wind from the playing surface. So, the wind may not be a huge factor contributing to home runs being hit tonight. The setting sun will only be a problem for fans sitting on the third base side for about the first 45 minutes of the game.

The Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other’s great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against the Braves, who will have to be at their best if they want to hold home field and advance to play in the NLCS.

The Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler, was dominant in Game 1 of their wild card sweep over the Miami Marlins. Then in Game 2, Aaron Nola was equally as dominating, but it created somewhat of an issue for the brain trust to decide the pitching rotation for this series knowing the Braves would have their best rotation in place starter with Spencer Strider.

So, it was not surprising to see the Phillies elect to start left-hander Ranger Suarez for Game 1, who went just 4-6 in 22 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.416 WHIP including 119 strikeouts and 48 walks over 125 innings of work. He is a craft left-handed pitcher with a wide array and variation of pitches he uses to keep batters guessing. He uses a heavy late-sinking fastball about 50% of the time then mixes in a cutter 15%, change 18%, and curve 17%. His change is exceptional and used mostly against right-handed batters, but he will use it occasionally to left-handed batters. His fastball will top out at 95 MPH and average 93 MPH. His curve will have big-time late breaking movement attributed to a spin rate around 2,100 RPM. All of his pitches average about 2,000 RPM and that consistency make it tough for batters to identify what pitch is coming their way.

Spencer Strider had a tremendous season posting a 20-5 record in 32 starts including a league-high 281 strike outs spanning 186 2/3 innings of work. He made 11 starts in which he struck out 10 or more batters, but the Phillies, as a team, are one of the most disciplined in MLB. Three of his five losses occurred at Truist Park where he went 8-3 in 16 starts with a mediocre 4.35 ERA and a 1.032 WHIP including 153 strikeouts over 93 innings of work. The biggest fact that the Phillies must overcome is that he went 11-0 in 12 starts against divisional foes with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.064 WHIP including 102 strikeouts over 73 1/3 innings of work.

The biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen and the scheduling of this series, which includes three days off allowing for even greater rest and managerial options. Their bullpen is the best of the remaining teams in the playoffs and have posted a 1.33 ERA and a 0.852 WHIP including 36 strikeouts and just six walks over their seven games spanning 27 innings of work.

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 68-27 record for 72% winning bets averaging a -108 wager and earning a 55% ROI in games played over the past 25 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams who are facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 and following a game in which their bullpen allowed 5 or more runs.

Now, the fact that the last game the Braves played was meaningless does diminish that parameter of the algorithm so let’s substitute another game parameter for it. In the playoffs, road dogs of 125 and higher and facing a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 have gone a quite impressive 29-26 for 53%, but by averaging a +155 wager have earned a highly profitable 28% ROI.

Last, teams that won their previous game by 5 or more runs to close out a series are 8-7 averaging a +140 wager and a 29.5% ROI and a remarkable 11-3 on the +1.5-run line earning and 35% ROI.

My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-Unit amount on the +1.5 run line and a 4-Unit amount using the money line as offered at DraftKings.

Spencer Strider OVER 1,5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM

Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145

Trea Turner to hit a home run +450

1.     Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100

2.     Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115

3.     Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400

4.     Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100

5.     Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L  -100

6.     JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450

7.     Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100

                 Total: +965

Monday – Seattle Mariners vs CWS
8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Mariners using the run line.

Start Time is 8:10 PM EST.

Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the -1.5-run line and then look for the CWS to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action to add the 1-unit on the money line.

Betting on favorites of -150 or greater on the money line with the run line that is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.25 or lower on the season and is facing a struggling foe that is scoring just 4.25 or fewer RPG has produced a 23-13 ML record and a 20-16 Run Line record averaging a +105 RL wager and earning a 17% ROI since 2016.

The Mariners have caught fire since putting all-star Julio Rodriguez in the leadoff spot of the batting order having won five consecutive games and have won 15 of their last 18 games to close to within three games of Al Division-leading Texas Rangers and with 2.5 games of the reigning world champion Houston Astros. The Mariners hold the third wild card berth by just a ½-game over the Toronto Blue Jays and by three games over the surging Boston Red Sox.

The CWS are playing out the remainder of the season and have lost 12 of their last 17 games and allowed 30 runs to the Colorado Rockies in their three set over the weekend. Starting tonight for the CWS is Touki Toussaint, who is just 1-5 in eight starts with a 5.26 ERA and 1.519 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0-2 record with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.954WHIP.

Boston vs Houston

Thursday – Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox
8-Unit best bet on the Red Sox using the -1.5-run line currently with -125 juice. Start Time is 7:10 PM EST.

Consider splitting this 8-Unit amount into two parts consisting of a 6-Unit amount using the -1.5-run line and then add a 2-Unit amount on the -1.5-run line if the Red Sox fall behind at any point during the first three innings of action.

Betting on home teams using the -1.5-run line that has an on-base-percentage of 0.260or lower spanning their last three games and with their bullpen struggling to an ERA of 7.00 or worse over their last 10 games has produced an outstanding 50-26-1 record for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Baltimore vs Atlanta 

8-Unit best bet on the Braves using the –1.5 Run line  
 
Betting on any team that is coming off a three-game sweep of a divisional rival and is facing a foe from the other league (inter-league) has earned a solid 30-12 record averaging a –111 wager and producing a 33% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. The Run line is 15-9 63% averaging a –103 bet and a 30% ROI. 

Atlanta Braves vs Oakland A’s

4% 8-Unit bets best on the A’s using the +1.5-run line

Betting against road favorites using the run line with a money line price between a 130 dog and 255 favorite and with a total of  8 or fewer runs that is averaging a minimum of 4.5 RPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games allowing no more than one run in either game has produced a 65-47 record, but has averaged a 116 Run Line bet producing an 18% ROI over the past five seasons. 

Oakland is 22-11 making 14 unit son the run line when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by at least 0.5 RPG in games played in the second half of each of the past two seasons.

NY Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates

4% 8-Unit bets Bet on the Run Line with the Pirates

An alternative strategy and the way I will be betting this game is to place a 2% amount on the moneyline and a 2% 4-Unit amount using the run line.

Betting on home teams that are scoring 3.8 or fewer RPG and has been hitting poorly at .215 or worse over their last 15 games and now facing a good team with a good bullpen that has posted an ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned an outstanding 90-59 record good for 60% winners, averaging a +115 dog and producing a 35% ROI over the last 25 seasons.

Colorado vs New York Mets 

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Colorado Rockies using the +1.5-run line 

For this game, I am splitting into two bets with the Rockies as a 1% 2-unit wager on the money line and a 3% 6-Unit wager on the +1.5-run line getting +160 or more. Since 2004, favorites of –400 or more in a game with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs has seen that favorite go 19-8, but by averaging a –432 wager has lost 15 units resulting in a -23% ROI. In the same scenario, these huge favorites have gone 13-11 averaging a –205 bet using the –1.5 run line resulting in a –20% ROI since 2004.  

Rockies are 30-16 making 14 units on the moneyline revenging a loss in which they scored no more than a single run in games played over the last two seasons.  

MLB had one best bet Monday and it came through on the winning side as the Philadelphia Phillies knocked off the Reds. Here is tonight’s best bet featuring a pair of situational angles with one nailing down winners at a 75% clip.  

Washington Nationals +270 vs San Diego Padres -330 

The Washington Nationals are arguably the worst team in MLB, but they were heroes last night as they were my best bet on the MLB Angle of the Day show. This quick-hitting video can be seen Monday through Friday and always features a highly profitable time-tested situational angle and system that you can track and use for your own betting opportunities. The Washington Nationals are my bet again tonight when they host the San Diego Padres and are priced as enormous underdogs. 

Situational Trends and Angles 

The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Marlins in this matchup. 

The Padres are 27-46 losing 40 units on the moneyline when facing an NL team that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of each of the last two seasons 

The Nationals are 7-2 making 11 units on the moneyline following two consecutive Under results in games played this season. 

The Padres are 5-10 losing 11.1 units on the moneyline in home games after allowing four or fewer runs in three consecutive games this season. 

I am going to the window betting the Nationals on the +1.5 run line +140 as offered at FanDuel. 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies 

4% Best Bet Dodgers on the –1.5 Run Line 

I also like a team total bet of 1% amount OVER Dodgers team total 

Dodgers are 55-36 on the run line when facing a bullpen that is overused and averages 3.2 innings per game on the season; 54-34 when facing a foe that averages 7+ strikeouts per game, and LA Dodger starter Tyler Anderson is 12-4 on the run line when facing a team that strikeouts 7+ times per game.  

Dodgers are also 31-12 on the run line after allowing two or fewer runs I games played this season and 12-3 on the run line following a win of 6 or ore runs in games played this season. 

LA Angels vs Houston Astros 

2:10 EDT, July 3, 2022 

4% best bet on the Angels using the +1.5-run line 

Angels lost the first two games of this three-game series badly by a combined scored of 17-2. The predictive models have targeted the Angels to play significantly better and have a much better day at the plate and on the scoreboard. Betting on road teams using the +1.5-run line that are facing a host that defeated them by eight or more runs in the previous game and starting a pitcher in strong form with an ERA of 3.00 over his last 10 starts has produced a 30-10 record good for 75% winning bets since 2004.  

Angels are 38-234 on the +1.5 run ine after losing three of their last four games.  

Angels wake up and realize they need to win, but I will still take the +1.5 run line. 

Philadelphia vs San Diego

4:10 EDT, June 26, 2022

4% best bet on the Phillies using the +1.5 run line

Harper has a broken thumb and will be out indefinitely, which is a huge loss, but somehow, this may be the situation, that wakes up the entire roster and has everyone stepping up their game. Even without Harper in the lineup, the Phillies are a formidable offensive force. Harper is a loss, but they have plenty of depth in this lineup to get through the next 4 to 6 weeks without him and remain in playoff contention.

Betting on road teams using the +1.5 run line facing a host whose bullpen did not give an ER in two straight games and is starting a pitcher with excellent control sporting a 1.100 over his last 10 starts has earned a highly profitable 78-40 record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The SU record has been 58-60. 

Detroit Tigers vs NY Yankees 

11:35 AM EST, June 5, 2022 

3% best bet on the Detroit Tigers on the run line and a 1.5% best bet on the Money line. 

I will be discussing the handicapping concept of regression each on the Full Count Show this week as well as my 2-minute quick-hitting free pick MLV videos airing M-F on the Predictive Playbook channel. Bes uyre to tune in for more in-depth analysis of this profitable strategy. 

So, home teams favored by –175 or more that have outscored their opponents by 100 or more runs in games played in the month of June are horrid ones to back with your money. They have earned a 49-30 record for 62% wins, BUT have averaged a –225.3 favorite and the result is a massive loss of $2,.115 wager just $100 per game played on these juggernaut teams. Fading these powerful teams has averaged a +205 underdog bet, making $1570 per $100 wagered for a solid 23% return-on-investment (ROI). If our favorites are lined on the –1.5 run line at =140 or more (more negative, more favored), then the run line record has been 7-8 betting against them, producing a 25% ROI averaging a +140 +1.5 run line wager on our barking underdog.  

olorado vs San Francisco

9:45 EST, August 13, 2021

4-UNIT play on the Run Line betting Colorado

Betting on road teams of at least +110 in the first game of a series and facing a hot bullpen that has posted an ERA of 2.00 or lower spanning their last five games has produced a 90-75 record, averaging a +155 dog bet and making the $100 bettor a $5100 profit over the last five seasons. 

From the predictive models and machine learning applications, we learn that San Fran is just 2-12 as a home favorite of -150 and greater when the opponent has had 2 or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the last three seasons.

LA Dodgers at the Colorado Rockies
4:10 PM EST, April 1, 2021
4% Best Bet on the LA Dodgers using the -1.5 Run Line

This is a very logical bet to be making on opening day. Over the last 15 seasons had you bet on the defending World Series Champion using the run line when favored between -175 and -200., you would have profited and produced a solid 15% ROI. The Dodgers are a juggernaut and added starting pitcher Trevor Bauer at $40 million. They were first in MLB with a 136-run differential in last season’s 60-game sprint and was more than half of their 273 run differential in 2019.

At DraftKings they are lined with a 102.5 wins total and if you are interested in backing the Dodgers, you can get it cheaper at BetMGM, who are offering it at 101.5 wins. I cannot imagine this team with the depth and talent in the starting lineup losing more than 60 games and are more likely to win 110 or more games in the 2021 season.

The Dodgers are 43-13 in day games over the last three seasons and starting pitcher Kershaw is 79-27 in day games for his career.

Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers
Game 5 NLCS
9:08 PM EST, October 12, 2020

10-Star on the Dodgers

Here is a betting system that has eanred a 25-11 record good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet against NL underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +185) that is a good offensive team scoring >=4.9 runs-per-game against a good NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers

10:08 PM EST, September 30, 2020
Game 1 NL Wild Card

10-Star Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 Run Line

Here is a supporting run line betting system that has earned a 48-17 record good for 74% winning bets spanning the past five seasons and requires us to bet on road underdogs using the run line of +165 to -190 that is averaging 4.0 to 4.5 runs per game and is battig just 0.225 or worse over their last five games and is facing a solid NL starter with an ERA or 3.70 or lower on the season.

The Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler is on the hill and his team record is just 4-13 against the run line after giving up 1 or zero earned runs in his last outing over the last two seasons. He is also 0-2 when facing the Brewers and was on the disabled list twice in September because of a blister at the tip of his right index finger. He pitched just 11 2/3 innings in September.

Brent Sutor has made four appearances as an opener, he had no decisions and a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings.

Milwaukee finished sixth in the NL with a staff ERA of 4.16, and the team's relievers were fourth with a 4.17 mark.

7-STAR WAGER ON THE LOS ANGELES DODGERS (912) AS THEY TAKE ON THE COLORADO ROCKIES IN MLB ACTION SET TO START AT 10:10 PM EST.

This situational run line query has earned a 36-19 record for 65% wins over the past 20 seasons and instructs us to play against road teams using the run line that is priced between -190 and +165 that is a good offensive team scoring an average of 4.7 or more-runs-per game on the season and after five consecutive games where they stranded seven or more runners on base in each of the five games and is now facing an NL opponent that is starting an excellent pitcher posting an ERA of 3.00 or less on the season. 

The Machine learning summary projects that Dodger’s starter RYU will complete six or more innings and will complete at least one more inning than the Rockies starter Antojnio Senzatela will complete and that the Dosdgers offense will score in a minimum of three innings. IN past home games where the Dodgers have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned an outstanding 218-9 SU record for 96% wins since 2006 and are 22-1 for 95.7% wins this season. 

10-STAR WAGER ON THE ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (964) USING THE RUN LINE AS THEY TAKE ON THE SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS IN MLB ACTION SET TO START AT 9:40 PM EST, FRIDAY, AUGUST 16.

This situational query has earned a 48-21 record for 70% wins over the last 20 seasons. The query instructs us to play on home favorites using the run line that is priced between +1.5 -130 to -1.5 +160 that is starting a pitcher who has posted an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70 on the season and has posted a WHIP of 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. 

Leake is the starter for the Diamondbacks and he has struggled over his last three starts posting a lofty 7.87 ERA and a 2.125 WHIP. However, he has pitched superior ball in home games posting a 7-2 record in 11 starts with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.162 WHIP. 

The machine learning summary we learn to expect that Arizona will have at least two multiple run innings and that Giants starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija will not have a quality start of six or more innings and allowing three or fewer earned runs. In past games where the Diamondbacks met or exceeded these performance mesure they have earned a 551-108 record for 84% wins since 2004 and a 34-5 record for 87% wins this season. 

7-STAR WAGER ON THE TEXAS RANGERS (957) USING THE RUN LINE AS THEY TAKE ON THE SEATTLE MARINERS SET TO START AT 9:10 PM EST, MONDAY MAY 27, 2019

Here is a situational query that has earned a 30-25 record for 55% wins over the last five seasons and instructs us to play on road dogs of 105 and greater that have just lost two consecutive games to a divisional rival and has a starter with good command sporting a WHIP of 1.00 or lower over his last three starts

Here is a strong run line situational query that has earned a 53-13 record for 80.3% wins over the last five seasons and instructs us to play on road dogs using the run line based on a money line ranging between a -190 favorite and 165 dog that are off two straight road losses to a divisional foe and has a starting pitcher posting a WHIP of 1.00 or lower over his last three starts.

John Ryan Sports

7-STAR WAGER ON THE CINCINNATI REDS (957) USING THE RUN LINE AS THEY TAKE ON THE CHICAGO CUBS SET TO START AT 2:20 PM EST, SUNDAY MAY 26, 2019

Here is a situational query that has earned a 89-77 record for 55% wins over the last five seasons and instructs us to play against NL home favorites of -110 and greater that are coming off a game where they scored eight or more runs and have season-to-date slugging percentage of at least 0.430.  The average wager has been an impressive 142-dog and is the dominant reason this query has made $4,900 per $100 wager over the past five seasons. 

 Reds starter Roarke is in excellent form posting a 2.81 ERA and a 1.187 WHIP over his last three starts. The Machine learning summary projections call for Roarke to complete at least six innings and complete more innings than Cubs starting pitcher Quintana. In past Reds road games where they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned 40-13 SU record winning the games by an average of 3.2 RPG and 46-7 Run Line and covering the RL by an average of 4.3 RPG since 2016. When the dataset is sliced a bit further to include only games where they are installed as 150 to 200 road dogs, they have earned a 14-3 SU record fo 82.4% wins and 15-2 RL record for 88.2% wins since 2016. 

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
LA Dodgers using the Run Line (961)
LA DODGERS (88 - 69) at ARIZONA (79 - 78)   
Tuesday, 9/25/2018 9:40 PM
WALKER BUEHLER (R) vs. MATT KOCH (R)
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
10 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 10-star wager on the Dodgers using the RUN line, which is currently pricing them as -220 ML and -1.5 -140 Run Line road favorites.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Dodgers to have a lower, more efficient hits-to-run ratio and have at least 1 multiple run inning. In previous road games where the Dodgers have met or exceeded these KPIs, they have gone 415-58 for 88% and a 65% ROI. When installed as a road favorite including these measures they have gone 234-30 for 89% and 49% ROI and 75-9 for 89% and a 44% ROI since the start of the 2016 season. Finally, slicing it further to include games where they were favored by at least -185, they have gone 21-2 for 91% and a 32% ROI. Under these same measures, when the Diamondbacks have been home, they have gone a dismal 7-27 for 21% and a horrid -54% ROI.

Database Situational Query
Play against all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are batting 255 or less on the season and batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games and now facing against a solid NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or less.
99-20 over the last 5 seasons for 83.2%, +6120 per $100 wagered.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
SF Giants Run Line (964)
ATLANTA (79 - 64) at SAN FRANCISCO (68 - 76)   
Tuesday, 9/11/2018 10:15 PM
MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R) vs. ANDREW SUAREZ (L)
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 7-star wager on the Giants using the Run Line, which is currently priced at +1 ½ -130.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Giants to have more extra-base hits than the Braves. When the Giants have been installed as home dogs between 100 and 135 and matching this single performance metric, they have gone 55-16 on the Run Line for 78% and a 29% ROI.

Database Situational Query
Play on all teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160)with a poor OBP of 310 or less and a a team in a big slump hitting 225 or worse over their last 10 games and is now facing an excellent control NL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.250 or lower.
64-31 over the last 5 seasons for 67.4%, +3520 per $100 wagered.

Utilizing the Two Subsets of AI (Machine and Deep Learning)
If you are new to our service, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning  and deep learning processes - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian probability networks. Also, we have deployed combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant advances in predictive power and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports.
   
The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.
NBA 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.
NCAAB 10-Star plays 14-5 ATS for 73%


Active Sports
MLB 10-Star plays 11-6 or $5,560.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.
MLB 2018 7-Star 72-71 and 5.55 units x $700 = $3,885
MLB 2018 5-Star 14-11 and 5.61 units x $500 = $2,805
MLB Overall 2018 $12,250.00

CFL 4-2 10-Star and $1,800

NFLX 7-Star plays 6-3 ATS $1,890
NFLX 10-Stars 3-0 ATS $3,000
NCAAF 5-Star plays 2-1 $450.00
NCAAF 7-Star plays 4-3 ATS $490
NCAAF 10-Star 1-1 ATS $1,000.00
NFL 5-Stars 0-2 ATS $-1,100
NFL 7-Stars 1-2 ATS $-$840
NFL 10-Stars 0-1 ATS $-1,100

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
Philadelphia (904)
WASHINGTON (67 - 66) at PHILADELPHIA (70 - 62)   
Wednesday, 8/29/2018 7:05 PM
GIO GONZALEZ (L) vs. JAKE ARRIETA (R)         
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
10 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 10-star wager on the Phillies using the Run Line line, which currently prices them as -125 home favorites and -1.5 +165 on the Run Line. So, a $1,000 wager returns $1650 using the Run Line if the Phillies win by 2 or more runs. To minimize the risk, but also reduce the max profit of a straight run line win, consider making a 7-Star wager on the RL and a 3-Star wager on the money line.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Phillies to have a lower (more efficient) hits-to-runs ratio and have at least one multiple run innings. In past games where they have matched or exceeded these performance measures, the Phillies have gone 72-10 for 88% winners averaging a -105 line and a 73% ROI. And a 66-16 record using the RL for 81% and a 63% ROI since 2016. When installed as a home favorite, the Phillies are 35-4 SU for 90% and a 52% ROI and 27-12 on the RL for 69% and a 64.4% ROI since 2016.


Database System Query
Play against road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) that are off a one run win over a division rival, with a cold starting pitcher posting an ERA of at least 7.00 over his last 3 starts.
73-45 since 1997 for 61.9%, +4170 per $100 wagered.
Methodologies and Subscriptions
If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, we have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports.
   
The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.
College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.
NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.
NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%
14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.
NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.
NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports
MLB 10-Star plays 9-5 or $4,130.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.
MLB 2018 7-Star 69-68 and 6.33 units x $700 = $4,4310
MLB 2018 5-Star 13-11 and 4.61 units x $500 = $2,305
MLB Overall 2018 $10,886.00

CFL 4-2 10-Star and $1,800

NFLX
4-2 ATS 7-Stars and $1,260
2-0 ATS 10-Stars and $2,000

ohn Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

San Diego using the Run Line (962)

ARIZONA (66 - 55) at SAN DIEGO (48 - 74)

Thursday, 8/16/2018 10:10 PM

CLAY BUCHHOLZ (R) vs. JACOB NIX (R)    

SIM grading

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager on the Padres using the run line, which currently prices them as +1 ½ -130 home favorite.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary calls for the Padres to have more hits and have more multiple run innings. In past games where they have matched or exceeded these performance measures, the Rockies have gone 29-1 for 97% winners averaging a 191 line and a 182 % ROI.

Database System Query

Play on all teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) and is a poor hitting team batting no higher than 250 and starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. and are now facing a top level starting pitcher sporting an ERA of 3.10 or lower and a, WHIP of 1.250 or lower.

75-37 since 1997 for 67%, +3910 per $100 wagered.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

San Diego using the Run Line (962)

ARIZONA (66 - 55) at SAN DIEGO (48 - 74)

Thursday, 8/16/2018 10:10 PM

CLAY BUCHHOLZ (R) vs. JACOB NIX (R)    

SIM grading

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager on the Padres using the run line, which currently prices them as +1 ½ -130 home favorite.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary calls for the Padres to have more hits and have more multiple run innings. In past games where they have matched or exceeded these performance measures, the Rockies have gone 29-1 for 97% winners averaging a 191 line and a 182 % ROI.

Database System Query

Play on all teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) and is a poor hitting team batting no higher than 250 and starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. and are now facing a top level starting pitcher sporting an ERA of 3.10 or lower and a, WHIP of 1.250 or lower.

75-37 since 1997 for 67%, +3910 per $100 wagered.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Dodgers using the Run Line (906)

SAN FRANCISCO (59 - 60) at LA DODGERS (64 - 55)

Monday, 8/13/2018 10:10 PM

MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)

SIM grading

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager on the Dodgers using the money line, which currently has them priced as -200 home favorites.

SIM Projections and Results

In Dodger home games installed as a favorite and have had more hits and the same or more multiple run innings and their starter has completed more innings than the opponent’s starter, they have gone 331-16 for 95.4% winners and a 62% ROI since 2004. When the starter has been Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers are 71-5 for 93.4% winners and 44% ROI and also 56-20 on the RL for 56% ROI. 

Database System Query

Play on all favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+135 to -190) off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher and has a win percentage 51% to 54% and playing a losing record team. 

34-9 since 1997 for 79.1%, +2800 per $100 wagered.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Colorado (910)
PITTSBURGH (57 - 56) at COLORADO (60 - 52)   

Tuesday, 8/7/2018 8:40 PM

JAMESON TAILLON (R) vs. CHAD BETTIS (R)

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 7-star wager on the Colorado using the run line, which currently prices the Rockies as +1.5 -130.

SIM Projections and Results

Rockies are batting 205 over their last 7 games and still have posted a 4-3 record.

Expect a bit of an explosion in offense tonight. Rockies are projected to get at least 12 hits and have at least 3 more hits than Pittsburgh and will have at least 2 Multiple run innings. In past games, when these measures have been met in Rocky home games, they have gone 161-21 for 89% against the Run Line and a strong 94% ROI.

Database System Query
Play on home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) with a cold starting pitcher posting a WHIP of 2.000 and higher over his last 3 starts and has been a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games.

49-18 over the last 5 seasons for 73.1%, +3720 per $100 wagered.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Boston 

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 7-star wager on the Orioles using the money line, which currently priced at +120.

SIM Projections and Results

Boston can put the Yankees far behind them with a win tonight and sweep the four-game series. If Seattle resumes their winning ways, the Yankees could be in trouble of even making it to the playoffs given all of their bullpen troubles and now starting pitching has been weak. Boston is projected to have at least 12 hits and 2 Multiple Run innings and will use fewer pitchers. Red Sox are an amazing 115-6 when getting 12 or more its, out hitting their opponent and using less pitchers. 

Database System Query

Play on all favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) and are averaging at least 5.1 runs-per-game and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season and is now facing a AL starting pitcher posting an ERA of not higher than 4.20. 

55-33 over the last 5 seasons for 62.5%, +3460 per $100 wagered. 

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, we have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports. 

The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.

College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.

NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.

NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%

14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.

NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.

NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports 

MLB 10-Star plays 8-5 or $2,950.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.

MLB 2018 7-Star 523-50 and 11.23 units x $700 = $7,861

MLB 2018 5-Star 10-8 and 3.40 units x $500 = $1,703

MLB Overall 2018 $12,514.00

WNBA 1-0 ATS    5-Star and $500.

WNBA 4-4 ATS    7-Star and $-40.

WNBA 1-0 ATS    10-Star and $1,000

WNBA Overall $1,990

CFL 4-1 10-Star and $2,900

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Oakland (924) Run LINE

DETROIT (47 - 63) at OAKLAND (65 - 46)

Sunday, 8/5/2018 4:05 PM

FRANCISCO LIRIANO (L) vs. TREVOR CAHILL (R)

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 7-star wager on the Athletics using the RUN line, which currently priced at -115 for the 1.5 Run Line.

SIM Projections and Results

A’s are projected to have more hits than the Tigers and will have at least 11 hits and 2 multiple run innings. When the A’s have met or exceeded these measures, they are 159-9 for 95% and a nice 68% ROI

Database System Query

Play on all favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-120 to +115scorig between 4.4 to 4.9 runs-per-game and facing an AL starter sporting an ERA between 4.70 to 5.70 after allowing 1 run or less. 

32-8 since 1997 for 80%, +2430 per $100 wager

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, we have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports. 

The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.

College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.

NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.

NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%

14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.

NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.

NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports 

MLB 10-Star plays 8-5 or $2,950.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.

MLB 2018 7-Star 523-50 and 11.23 units x $700 = $7,861

MLB 2018 5-Star 10-8 and 3.40 units x $500 = $1,703

MLB Overall 2018 $12,514.00

WNBA 1-0 ATS    5-Star and $500.

WNBA 4-4 ATS    7-Star and $-40.

WNBA 1-0 ATS    10-Star and $1,000

WNBA Overall $1,990

CFL 4-1 10-Star and $2,900

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

The New York Mets (907)
NY METS (31 - 38) at COLORADO (34 - 38)
Tuesday, 6/19/2018 8:40 PM
JASON VARGAS (L) vs. GERMAN MARQUEZ (R)

SIM grading

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager on the  using the line, which currently shows them installed as a -145 home road favorite dog.

Game Intelligence Discussion Points

Play against home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +135 to -190) after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs
36-9 since 1997 for 80.0%, +2510 per $100 wagered.

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value in augmented total rate of returns in all sports.

The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.

College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.

NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.

NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%

14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

       NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.

NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.

NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports

MLB 10-Star plays 6-2 or $3,950.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.

          MLB 2018 season 29-32 and 0.95 units
          MLB Overall 2018    $4,615.00 wagering $100 per ‘star’ grading.

           WNBA 1-0 ATS    5-star
           WNBA 2-1 ATS    7-star

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

Colorado using the Run Line (929)
Colorado at Texas
Friday, June 15 8:05 PM EST
Chad Bettis versus Yohander Mendez

SIM grading

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager on the  using the run line, which currently shows them installed at -1.5 +145 return.

Game Intelligence Discussion Points

Play against home teams against a 1.5 run line after 4 straight games where they stranded 8 or more runners on base, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games
31-9 over the last 5 seasons for 77.5%, +2300 per $100 wagered.

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian networks. Also, have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value in augmented total rate of returns in all sports.

The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.

      College Basketball went 81-63 ATS for 56.3% winners.

NCAA Tournament Plays went 13-6 ATS for 63%.

NCAA Basketball record from March 1. 26-12 ATS for 68.4%

14-5 ATS mark for Top-Rated 10-Star College Hardwood Titans.

       NBA since March 1 33-18 ATS for 64.7%.

NBA Playoffs 21-10 ATS 68%.

NBA Season 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.

Active Sports

MLB 10-Star plays 6-2 or $3,950.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.

          MLB 2018 season 27-29 and 1.60 units
          MLB Overall 2018    $5,072.00 wagering $100 per ‘star’ grading.

           WNBA 1-0 ATS    5-star
           WNBA 2-1 ATS    7-star

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play

Houston Astros (974)

The Matchup

BOSTON (39 - 19) at HOUSTON (37 - 22)
Saturday, 6/2/2018 7:15 PM
DAVID PRICE (L) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R

SIM Grading and Recommended Strategy

7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 7-star wager on Houston using the RUN line, which currently shows the Astros installed as a -1 ½ +115 home dog.

SIM Matching Game Situations

Since the start of the 2017 season, opponents, who have won at least 6 games of their last 10 and facing a stout opponent lined as a -175 or greater favorite are 34-104 wagering on the RUN LINE. So, this is working against Boston in this matchup.

Game Intelligence Discussion Points

Houston is a solid 24-14 against the run line (+10.7 Units) vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season.
Verlander is a stout 13-4 against the run line (+9.8 Units) vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more HR-per-game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record).
Houston is 19-7 against the run line (+12.3 Units) after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season.

The Play

Boston (923) using the Run Line

BOSTON (24 - 9) at TEXAS (13 - 22)
Sunday, 4/28/2018 2:15 PM

SIM grading on a 3 to 10-Star Spectrum

7 stars

Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager on Boston using the Run line, which currently shows Boston installed as at -145 for the -1.5 Run Line.

Game Intelligence Analytics

Boston has the best record in baseball in large part to a powerful run scoring offense that ranks 2nd in runs scored per game at 5.64 and best in total bases per game at 16.38. They rank second in team batting average at 0.269 and best in doubles averaging 2.52 per game. Their lineup keeps constant pressure on opposing pitches and defenses with excellent plate discipline. They rank 2nd-best averaging just 7.55 strikeouts per game.

Texas ranks 25th in win percentage, 23rd in runs per game at 4.09 and 28th averaging 9.77 strikeouts per game. Moreover, Texas pitchers average just 7.56 K’s per game ranking 26th. Boston, on the other hand, ranks 5th-best averaging 9.67 K’s per game by their pitching staff.

Database System Query
Play on all teams against a 1.5 run line ranking from -190 to +175 that are solid offensive team scoring 5.1 runs per game and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better and is now facing a very good AL starting pitcher sporting an ERA of 3.50 or lower
48-27 over the last 5 seasons for 64%, +3110 per $100 wagwered.

SIM Matching Game Situations

Texas is a money burning:

Boston is projected to get 11 or more hits and 3 or more doubles. In past games, where Texas has allowed this combination of hits and doubles they have gone just 64-219 against the run line. Playing against Texas in this situation has produced a 55% ROI since 1995. Over the past three seasons, playing against Texas in this situation has produced a 61-26 record for 70.9% winners and has made $4390 per $100 wagered.

Boston is a solid money making:

18-6 against the run line (+11.3 Units) vs. an AL team with they batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
9-1 against the run line (+9.0 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.

7* graded play on the Chicago White Sox as they take on Houston in MLB action set to start at  8:10 PM ET. We also like making this a combination wager using a 5* play on the RL and a 2* play using the inflated money line.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward  opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, the CWS are today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit  say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.

We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons.

   So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 43-16 hitting 73% winners and has made 38 units/unit wagered since 1997. The system has also averaged a 126 DOG wager.

Play on AL home teams.

Team with a below average  OBP of .320 or less.

Facing a very good starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.
And the team starting a pitcher who walked 4or more hitters each of his last 2 outings.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

CWS are a stout 15-4 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in home games after 6 or more consecutive losses.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the CWS.

7* graded play on the Los Angeles Dodgers (930) using the Run Line as they take on Minnesota in MLB action set to start at 10:10 PM ET.

Recommended Wagering Strategy

The current money line is about -175 with some books at -171 and others higher at -178. The Run line is currently at -1.5 +125. So, a combination of these two lines offers an way to optimize the ROI and minimize the risk. This ROI optimization is not beneficial to the user for just one game, however, if it is adopted over the course of the season it will add more profits.

So, for this play, the combination wager is optimized ONLY if you have access to the -2 ½ Run Line, which we anticipate to be lined at + 180.

If the -2 ½ is not available, then simply wager a 7* amount on the Run Line.

If the -2 ½ run line is available, then wager a 4.5* amount using the Run Line and a 2.5* amount using the -2 ½ Run Line.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

Despite losing Clayton Kershaw for 4 to 6 weeks and Brandon McCarthy (blister), the Dodgers  are in position to maintain at least ‘500’ ball over the next few weeks. More on this a bit later in the report.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Twins are just  25-44 against the run line losing 30.4 Units when facing a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons.  

Dodgers are a solid 42-22 against the run line making 18.7 Units facing an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.

Dodger starter Maeda is a perfect 6-0 against the run line making 6.7 Units in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.

Team Discussion Points

Dodgers have the offense to offset the loss of Kershaw and McCarthy. They are currently batting 0.271 with a 0.351 OBP and 0.830 OPS over their last seven games. Minnesota does not have near the fire-power batting 0.254 with a 0.327 and 0.723 OPS over their last seven games. The biggest advantage for the Dodgers is their bullpen. The relief boys have produced a 2.92 ERA with a 1.082 WHIP allowing just 96 walks while striking out 371 batters. In 54 home games they have been even better with a 2.32 ERA and a 0.982 WHIP allowing 52 walks and recording 199 K’s spanning 186 innings of work. The bullpen is also 12-2 in home games. Twins bullpen is largely inconsistent posting a 4.69 ERA with a 1.446 WHIP allowing 121 walks and recording 273 Ks spanning 343 ⅔ innings of work. Between the offense and the bullpen, the Dodgers will be nearly always competitive in every game played moving forward.

The following list of games show that the Dodgers are 7-3 in games played in 2017 where they were in a tied game through six innings. This is not all that relevant for a single game, but does reflect how strong the bullpen has been this season. I rarely state subjective opinions in these reports, but the The ‘Next Man Up’ motto will be apparent for this Dodgers team moving forward.

10* graded play on Oakland (907) using the Run Line as they take on Cleveland in AL MLB action set to start at 12:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm projects that the A’s will win this game.

    We nearly always look to create a combination wager that is optimized by using the money line and the Run Line. In this game, we like playing a 6.5* amount using the Run Line and a 3.5* amount using the money line. The Run Line is currently at -110 and the money line is about +200 to 220 at the majority of books.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward  opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Oakland is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit  say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.

We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons.

    So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has produced a 52-23 record hitting 69% winners and has made 27.9 units/unit wagered since 2012. The system has also averaged an impressive . Play on all underdogs using a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (OAKLAND) and is a below average hitting AL hitting team batting.260 or less and with a batting average of .240 or worse over their last 20 games.  and is now facing a team with a good bullpen posting an ERA of 3.75 or less.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Cleveland is just  10-28 against the run line (-18.6 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.

7-21 against the run line (-14.8 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is +135 to -190 this season.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the A’s today and expect the upset.

7* graded play on the Seattle Mariners (917) using the Run Line as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in MLB action set to start at 7:05 PM ET.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by 2 or more runs.

The current Run Line is at Seattle -1 ½  +140 and the money line is at essentially pick-em. Make certain you always use the - 1 ½ line as it will equate to a dog line (+140 in this case) and offer a much better return. So, an alternative wager is to combine money line and run line by wagering a 2.5* play using the line and a 4.5* play using the Run Line.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

Phillies had a 5-run lead and ended up losing the game at home last night to the Mariners. Teams that have replicated that type of disappointing loss are 58-6 with a 7.4% ROI and 40-56 with a 10.4% ROI using the Run Line.

    Applying the team filter, shows that the Phillies are 0-3 SU and 1-2 Run Line (playing the same opponent) after game  blowing a 5-run or more lead and losing at home since 2004. Small dataset, but meaningful.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Seattle is 17-9 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better.

Phillies are just  5-20 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in home games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Mariners using the Run Line or by using the combination wager outlined above.

Ryan’s Run Line SIM Algorithm Titan

John Ryan's proven algorithm has identified a High-Powered winner in today’s MLB card

10* graded play on San Francisco (961) using the Run Line as they take on Cincinnati in MLB action set to start at 4:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that  will win this game by at least 2 runs.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 32-8 hitting 80% winners and has made 24.3 units/unit wagered since 2012. Play on all NL teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SAN FRANCISCO) with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Cueto’s team record in his starts are 13-4 against the run line (+10.5 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

Other Fundamental and Technical Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Giants using the Run Line.

10* graded play on the NY Yankees (966) as they take on the Baltimore Orioles using the Run Line in AL East action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Yankees will win this game.

     We also like using an alternative combination ager consisting of a 3.5* play using the money line and a 6.5* play using the Run Line. The current RL is – 1 ½  +115, so this offers an optimized ROI when combined with the 3.5* play using the money line.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Yankees are 20-9 against the run line (+14.1 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start as the manager of NY Yankees. 

     So, teams that scored 4 or more runs against the bullpen than the starter are 59-52 against the Run Line making 30.54 units/unit wagered ($3,054 per $100 wager) since 2012. The play has averaged a +140 Run Line and that alone is why this situation is credible and proven money maker.

Other Fundamental and Technical Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Yankees.

7* graded play on San Diego (962) using the Run Line as they take on San Francisco in NL action set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SD will lose this game by 1 run covering the Run Line and also may win the game.

Given the favorable projections we like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the Run Line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 5.5* play on the RL and a 1.5* play using the money line. This combination maximizes your ROI for this wager based on the probabilistic projections from the SIM.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Here is a system that has gone 27-8 for 82% winners since 1997. Play on home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (SAN DIEGO) below average NL hitting team batting .255 or less and us now facing a team with a below average bullpen posting an ERA >=4.50, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse on the season.

SD is 16-4 against the run line (+13.0 Units) in home games facing a struggling bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 

Other Fundamental and Technical Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board SD.

25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on Tampa Bay in AL East action set to start at 1:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. I like making this play a combination wager using a 21* amount on the money line and a 4* play using the RUN LINE.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven RUN LINE system posting a 34-15 mark good for 69.4% winners and has made 24.2 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on home teams against a 1.5 run line (BALTIMORE) team with a good slugging percentage >=.440 and with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game and is now facing a very good AL starting pitcher posting a WHIP

25* graded play on Los Angeles boxed with Kershaw and using the Run LINE as they take on Arizona in NL West action set to start at 3:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match and/or support the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game; 16-5 in Kershaw’s last 21 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Corbins last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record; Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Corbins last 6 home starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Kershaw is 9-1, is tied for the major league lead with three shutouts, , and has given up 59 hits in 100 2/3 innings. He has 122 strikeouts and only six walks. He leads the majors in ERA (1.52) and WHIP (0.65). The Diamondbacks were 6-13 against the Dodgers last season and 4-15 against them in 2013. Take LA Dodgers.

50* graded play on the Dodgers using the Run LINE as they take on the Mets in NL action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game by at least 3 runs. If you have access to the growing – 2 12 lines, then I highly recommend a combination wager using a 40* play on the -1 ½ line and a 10* play using the 2 ½ run line. Another option is to play a 22* play on the line and then a 28* play using the -1 ½ Run Line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 64-6 mark good for 91.4% winners and has made 51.1 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against all NL underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (NY METS) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. This is a straight ML system and not a Run Line, BUT it certainly underscores the Algorithm projection of a 3+ Dodgers win.

Fundamental Discussion Points Kershaw is 7-1 with a 1.58 ERA with a 1.013 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Mets. Colon is just 2-5 with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.323 WHIP in 7 starts against the Dodgers. Kershaw is 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA and a 0.774 WHIP in 7 starts allowing just 3 BB while striking out 64 batters spanning 53 innings of work. Take the Dodgers.

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers as they take on the SF Giants in NL West action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-17 mark good for 73% winners and has made 27.6 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on any team (LA DODGERS) team that had a good record last season (54% to 62%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 54%).  The following game situation matches the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Giants' Cain is a money losing 15-29 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in April games in his career.

Fundamental Discussion Points Dodgers send out 26-year old Ross Stripling, who makes his major league debut two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The right-hander, who never pitched in Triple-A, went 3-6 with a 3.66 ERA pitching for Double-A Tulsa and Class-A Great Lakes last year. Scouting reports can provide adequate knowledge to MLB hitters, but facing a starter for the first time is often far different in live situations. This is a huge advantage for Stripling. Cain starts for the Giants and has not had much success against the Dodgers sporting a 5-11 record in 30 career starts with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.342 WHIP. Yasiel Puig, 4 for 11 with two doubles and a home run against Cain, is 8 for 15 with two triples, a homer, six runs scored and four RBIs through four games. Though Los Angeles pitchers were battered Thursday, it's hitters are batting .313 with 13 doubles thus far. Adrian Gonzalez is 7 for 14 with three doubles and four RBIs, and hitting .400 with seven RBIs in his last nine against the Giants.

25* graded play on Boston as they take on Toronto in AL East action set to start at 7:07 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Boston will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is 11-9 (+4.2 Units) at Toronto over the last 3 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Boston's Dustin Pedroia is 4 for 7 against Stroman. He's hit safely in 14 straight games against the Blue Jays, and is batting .330 with 16 RBIs in his last 21 meetings. Josh Donaldson left his last game with a calf injury which will effect his play (if he does play) in this game. Boston will end Stroman's perfect streak against them tonight. Pick Boston Red Sox.

25* graded play on The Pittsburgh Pirates as they host the St. Louis Cardinals in Opening Day MLB action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability the Pirates get the win.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Day games have suited the Pirates well in the last few seasons. They sport a very strong 19-3 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Liriano is one of the most under valued starters in fantasy drafts this season based on my metrics. In this game he already knows he does very well against a strong Cardinals lineup. He has gone 5-2 in 13 career starts with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.053 WHIP. The team record is 9-4 in those 13 starts. Wainwright is still the ace of the Cardinals staff, despite not starting a game since April 2015 suffering from an Achilles injury. The time off is a big concern and his pin-point control may be off a bit allowing Pirate hitters to work counts in their favor. Pirates is the play.

25* graded play on the Toronto Blue Jays using the run line as they take on the Phillies in inter league action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 114-62 mark good for 65% winners and has made 44 units/unit wagered sice 1997. Play against home teams against a 1.5 run line (PHILADELPHIA) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs. Phillies bullpen had done a great job essentially since late June, but now are showing the wear of the marathon season and overuse. They lost their ace Hamels and closer Papelbon to trade deadline moves. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Blue Jays are 19-9 against the run line (+11.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season; Phillies are  26-40 against the run line (-21.5 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Simply said, the Blue Jays have by far the best and most feared offense in baseball and one that I highly believe will carry them to the Al pennant. Weather could be an issue with thunderstorms in the area, but MLB will play this game and any game delays will favor Toronto. Take Toronto.  

25* graded play on the NY Yankees using the Run Line as they take on the Texas Rangers in AL action set to start at 1:05 PM ET. The Yanks have lost 8 of 9 games and four straight. Yet, this is a game that they can win easily and by more than 1 run. Given the favorable Run Line at a current +130 offers an excellent investment in the Yankees this afternoon. I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. When these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Yankees using the Run Line. Looking at Sabathia's performance in 2015, his fastball is down about 4 MPH from recent seasons. His chance was still in the 84/86 range and did not offer enough movement to fool batters. However, in his recent starts he has widened the gap between the speeds and is getting positive results. His slider has been much better and is a pitch he uses almost exclusively to LHH since he is a LH starter. He has used change and slider nearly equally against RH batters and this has been getting better results. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-22 run line results and has made 30 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against any team against a 1.5 run line (TEXAS) with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts, starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing. Sabathia is coming off a 7 inning start allowing just 1 ER on 6 hits with 5 K's and no walks. Further, the Yankees bullpen is vastly better than the Rangers. Take the New York Yankees using the Run Line.

25* graded play on the Houston Astros using the Run Line as they take on the LA Angels in AL West action set to start at 10:05 PM ET.  I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. When these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Houston using the Run Line. If you prefer just a money line play,. I have no problem with that at all. Depending on your book, you may not get the favorable dog run line with a current price of +156. Do not play the run line if is NOT the dog line with Houston - 1 1/2. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 60-12 mark good for 84% winners and has made 49 units/unit wagered since 2009. Play on road teams against a 1.5 run line (HOUSTON) with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season, excellent speed team averaging 1 or more SB's/game on the season. So far this season, it has gone an incredible 22-2 and made 21.8 units/unit wagered. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston starter McHugh's team record is a solid  19-5 against the run line (+14.9 Units) facing an AL team with they batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Take Houston. 

10* graded play on the Los Angeles Dodgers using the Run Line as they host the Washington Nationals in NL action set to start at 10:10 PM ET. In reading the LA Times, I noted immediately the interview with skipper Mattingly. He drew on a hoops analogy to Kobe Bryant and how great he is; how even greater he is when the pressure is on. He mentioned names of key players adn the entire starting lineup and simply said it will be fun to watch these players rise their play to even greater levels down the stretch. In my opinion, that was brilliant and can only motivate and inspire his team. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-5 mark for 92% winners since 1997. Play on all NL underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (WASHINGTON) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. Nats are a money burning 2-12 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in road games when facing an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last 2 seasons. Dodgers are a solid 40-14 (+23.7 Units) against the money line in home games facing NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Kershaw is an amazing  36-9 (+17.8 Units) against the money line facing NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record); 16-0 (+16.0 Units) against the money line against NL East opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record). Now, these are money line situations and I have no problem if you simply wanted to lay the wood with the steep favorite line. To confirm, I will be using the Run Line for this tilt as all of the projections and research call for an easy win by the Dodgers. Further, Washington is just  3-11 against the run line (-10.9 Units) in road games facing an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last 2 seasons. Take the Dodgers. 

25* graded play on the Seattle Mariners as they host the Texas Rangers in AL action set to start at 10:10 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will win this game by 2 or more runs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 56-31 mark for 64.4% winners since 1997. Play on home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+135 to -190) (SEATTLE) and is an AL offensive team scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season and after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games. 52% of these plays saw the team win the game by 3 or more runs and averaged a +113 DOG Run Line play. Texas is a money burning 13-28 against the run line (-21.6 Units) facing teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season; 14-28 against the run line (-20.4 Units) vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season; 9-19 against the run line (-15.4 Units) when playing against a good team winning between 54% to 62% of their games this season; 6-15 against the run line (-13.4 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of this season. Rangers starter Mikolas has struggled posting a 7.87 ERA with a 1.687 WHIP spanning his last three starts. Seattle starter Elias has been sparkling with a 2.35 ERA and 1.369 WHIP over his last three starts. Moreover, the Seattle bullpen is monumentally better than the Rangers pen. Take Seattle and Best of Luck to us!

10* graded play on the Dodgers using the Run Line as they take on the NY Mets in NL action set to start at 9:10 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game by 2 or more runs. Dodger starter Greinke is a solid 11-3 against the run line (+10.6 Units) in home games vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) 18-8 against the run line (+12.5 Units) in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)  Mets starter DeGrom has been quite impressive, but he is making his first start in 16 days having been sidelined with rotator cuff tendinitis. He may have done well in a bullpen session to live batters, but this is a significant injury that can become inflamed quickly. I would have to be quite impressed if he did well enough to complete 6 innings tonight. Greinke hasn't been on a team that has dropped four of his starts in a row since 2010. He is 0-2 with a 3.50 ERA in his last three as Los Angeles has provided him three runs of support. Greinke's fifth career start over 10 years ago came against the Mets, a 5-2 loss. He has faced New York twice since then, going 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. Take the Dodgers using the Run Line.

10* graded play on the Oakland A's using the Run Line as they take on the NY Mets in inter-league action set to start at 3:35 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game by at least 2 runs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 mark using the Run Line making 33 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on any team against a 1.5 run line (OAKLAND) and is a solid AL offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs/game and facing a good NL starter posting an ERA<=3.70 and playing on Wednesday. The day of the week is quite important as Wednesday and Thursday marks games played in day-time conditions and in twi-light conditions. I won't belabored the point, but Oakland is a vastly better team than the Mets. Oakland has gone through their slump and are now poised to regain that winning momentum. Further, A's are 10-2 against the run line (+10.6 Units) in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 3 seasons. Also of note, is that the LA Angels are in first in the AL West and no team wants to be a wild card entry into the post-season play. So, the A's have every reason to be completely focused and prepared to take care of business against a weak NL losing record team. Take the A's using the Run Line. 

10* graded play on the Toronto Blue Jays using the Run Line as they take on the Houston Astros in AL action set to start at 8:10 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game by at least 2 runs. Houston is a money burning  6-18 against the run line (-15.5 Units) in home games facing excellent fielding teams averaging <=0.5 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons;  4-12 against the run line (-10.7 Units) after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less this season. Toronto is 18-7 against the run line (+11.7 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Toronto starter Dickey and his knuckle ball technique are coming off a solid start at Boston. He went 7 innings allowing just three hits in a 14-1 blowout win. I fully expect Dickey to confound the Houston lineup and complete another 7+ innings of work. Take Toronto. 

10* graded play on the Miami Marlins using the Run Line as they take on the Cincinnati Reds IN NL action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. The ML is right around pick-em,a t most sports books, so play this Run Line as ONLY a DOG line. For example Miami -1 1/2 +175. If this -1 1/2 line is not available and instead you are receiving +1 1/2, then play the Fish as a money line play only. I also like using the -1 1/2 line as a combination wager consisting of a 5* play using the ML and a 5* play using the Run Line. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by at least 2 runs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-31 mark for 65% winners using the Run Line and has made 50 units/unit wagered since 1997. The SU record of this system is a solid 66-22 and has averaged a +142 RL line. Play on NL home favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +175) (MIAMI) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season with a cold starting pitcher posting a WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts.  Take the Miami Marlins

25* graded play on the Oakland A's using the Run Line as they take on the Houston Astros in AL action set to start at 8:10 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game by 2 or more runs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 61-15 mark for 80.3% winners since 2008. Play on road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (OAKLAND) - revenging a loss to opponent as a road favorite of -150 or more and is an excellent team winning 54 to 62% or more of their games on the season. Here is a second system that has gone 64-25 for 72% winners since 2008. Play against AL home teams (HOUSTON) with a low on-base percentage of <=.320 and with a struggling starting pitcher posting a WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts and is now facing a team with a good bullpen posting a WHIP <=1.350. A struggling starter like Feldman does not want to be facing the Oakland A's. The reasons are numerous. A's rank best in MLB scoring 5.02 RPG, best in plate appearances, fifth in HR per game, best in BB per game. It is the last stat, BB per game, that has made the A's such a strong offensive team. That plate discipline forces starter and relievers to throw pitches in the strike zone and allows the A's to work counts to get the pitches they are best at hitting. A's have the better starter and a vastly better bullpen and I strongly believe this game will be a blowout winner by the A's. 

10* graded play on the Oakland A's using the Run Line as they take on the Texas Rangers set to start at 7:05 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will win this game by at least 2 or more runs. A's are a solid  22-8 against the run line (+16.1 Units) vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; Kazmire is a solid 16-7 against the run line (+11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record);  10-3 against the run line (+8.5 Units) facing AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record); 21-6 against the run line (+17.9 Units) facing an AL team with they batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Texas is a money burning 4-15 against the run line (-14.5 Units) facing AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of this season; 0-8 against the run line (-10.4 Units) in home games facing an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season. Take Oakland.

25* graded play on the Los Angeles Dodgers using the RUn LINE as they take on the SF Giants in NL West action set to start at 9:05 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this gam by 2 or more runs. Tis play is based on a dominant start by Kershaw and that is certainly a reasonable xpectation. he is  15-4 against the run line (+11.8 Units) in road games when facing teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record); 10-1 against the run line (+9.5 Units) in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record); Dodgers are a soid money making  29-9 against the run line (+16.2 Units) in road games when facing an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 3 seasons;  28-10 against the run line (+20.0 Units) after 7 or more consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. Giants are a money burning  11-29 against the run line (-18.7 Units) in home games after 2 straight games with no home runs over the last 2 seasons. In Kershaw's last start, he was not on his 'A' game, but still managed to pitch at an elite level. He went 7 innings allowing 3 ER on 6 hits with one HR in a 4-3 non-decision start at St. Louis For the season, he is 11-2 with a 1.92 ERA and a 0.842 WHIP, walking just 14 batters and striking out 134 in 103 1/3 innings of work. Giant starter Vogelsong has posted a 4.91 ERA with a 1.637 WHIP over his last three starts spanning just 14 2/3 innings of work. In his last start at Philadelphia Vofelson allowed 11 hits and 4 runs (3 ER) in just 3 innings of work. Take the Dodgers.

10* graded play on the Los Angeles Angels using the Run Line as they take on the Seattle Mariners in AL West action set to start at 3:35 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Angels will win this game by 2 or more runs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  85-18 mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (SEATTLE) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season. Here is a Run Line system that has gone 1-6-57 for 65% winners and has made 54.1 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on any team against a 1.5 run line (LA ANGELS) hot hitting team batting .290 or better over their last 20 games and now facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 1.000 over his last three starts. I have no problem for those who feel confident in laying the 'wood' and play this a money line play. I can also offer you a combination wager comprised of a 6* play using the Run Line and a 4* play using the money line. Moreover, Angels are 10-3 against the run line (+8.2 Units) in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. Angels rank first in RPG, third in total bases, second in run differential, and second in doubles-per-game. These are just a few of the strengths of this Angels offensive lineup and I strongly believe that Seattle starter Young will not be able to contain this lineup. Further, Young may have posted a solid 3.15 ERA with a 0.800 WHIP over his last three starts, BUT he has allowed 4 bombs and 10 of his 16 for the season have occurred on the road. Take the Angels using the Run Line. 

10* graded play on the CWS using the Run Line as they take on the Houston Astros in AL action set to start at 8:10 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the CWS will win this game by two or more runs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 111-48 mark for 70% winners using the money line. Play against all AL underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (HOUSTON) that is a below average offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season and after allowing 9 runs or more. I have no problem with anyone wanting to play a straight ML wager on this game as the aforementioned system under scores. However, a combination wager using a 6.5* play on the Run Line and a 3.5* play using the money line is a preferred strategy based on risk analysis than simply a straight ML wager. CWS are a near-perfect 13-1 against the run line (+12.0 Units) facing an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 this season. CWS starter Quintana is coming off three impressive starts posting a 1.25 ERA with a 0.646 WHIP allowing 0 HR while walking 5 batters and striking out 24. He had gone two straight starts allowing no ER before yielding 3 ER on just 2 hits in a no-decision, but team win at Boston. He throws FB 56% and at 91 MPH. His true strength is that he throws a cutter at 88 MPH and an above average curve 15 and 20% of the time respectively. They come out of the same arm slot as the FB and is extremely difficult for any MLB batter to identify. He is left-handed so the change will be used far more against RH batters. When ahead in the count, batters are hitting just 0.148 reflecting his elite pitches that can throw. Take the CWS. 

25* graded play on the LA Dodgers using the Run Line as they host the San Diego Padres set to start at 10:10 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game by more than 2 runs.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-20 mark for 69% winners since 1997. It has made 28 units/unit wagered. Play on any NL team against a 1.5 run line (LA DODGERS) with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season. SD is just 16-32 against the run line (-21.4 Units) when facing NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game this season;  7-26 against the run line (-24.7 Units) after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. Dodgers are a solid money making 22-8 against the run line (+16.2 Units) when facing an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 10-3 against the run line (+9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. This is the first game of a four-game set against the Padres and the first home game since ending a 2-4 road trip going 2-4 against Colorado and then losing both games at Detroit. No one better in MLB to have on the hill to get things on the right track then Kershaw. For the season, he is 10-2 with a 1.85 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, walking just 12 batters while striking out 115 in 13 starts spanning 87 1/3 innings of work. He has posted a ZERO ERA with a 0.739 WHIP walking four batters while striking out 29 in his last three starts spanning 23 innings of work. Padres rank 30th in RPG, 30th in total bases, 25th in run differential, 30th in team batting average, 30th in hits per game, and 25th in K%. That group must face Kershaw. Enough said. Take Los Angeles using the Run Line. Good Luck!  

10* graded play on the LA Angels using the Run Line as they take on the Houston Astros in AL action set to start at 9:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Angels will win this game by 2 or more runs.  Happy Fourth of July!!!! As a note, I am traveling on the West Coast and attending a big family member's wedding. So, if I don't put out any plays Saturday or Sunday that is the reason why. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-16 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2008. Play against road underdogs in July games using a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (HOUSTON) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season. Angels are a solid money making 15-7 against the run line (+10.4 Units) in home games when facing an AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game this season. Houston's bullpen is terrible - perhaps as bad as the edition located in the Bronx. The Angels lineup is just far too strong for any combination of Houston pitchers to contain for nine innings. I strongly believe that the Angels will win this game easily.  

10* graded play on the Toronto Blue Jays using the Run Line over the CWS in AL action set to start at 7:07 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game by more than 2 runs.  I had Toronto Thursday as my Run Line Game of the Year 25* Titan and they made it very easy for all of us winning 8-0 with Happ going 7 2/3 innings and allowing just 4 hits. Supporting this graded play are several game situations. CWS starting pitcher Danks is a near-imperfect 1-12 against the run line (-13.8 Units) when facing non-aggressive running teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Toronto's offense is deep and powerful and will overwhelm Danks tonight. They rank 4th in team batting average, second in plate appearances, best in RPG, best in HRPG, and 6th in fewest K's per game. Knuckle-baller Dickey has pitched well over his last three starts and has allowed three or fewer ER in four straight starts. In three of the four he allowed 2 ER exact and is averaging 6 1/3 innings per start for the season. Take Toronto using the Run Line. 

25* graded play on the Toronto Blue Jays as they take on the CWS in AL action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game by more than 2 runs. This is obviously a very powerful money making opportunity. It is imperative though that you resist the temptation to wager beyond your means. The key to my work is play everyday with a disciplined amount and with a long-term focus on profits. Not every GOY or GOM release is going to win, but over the course of the season, you stand a great probability of significant profits in you wager each one of them with discipline. So, if you are wagering $100 per 10* release, then do not exceed a 250 dollar play for this 25* release.  CWS are just 16-30 against the run line (-19.9 Units) after a one run loss over the last 2 seasons. JA Happ starts for the Blue Jays and is coming off a very poor start against the Reds. However, he rarely has consecutive poor starts. His counterpart is Scott Carroll and I fully expect the Blue Jays to hammer him early and often. He relies on a mediocre fastball that rides in at 90 MPH and mixes in a change (83 MPH) and curve (77 MPH). His curve is by far his best pitch accounting for the majority of K's. However, this allows hitters to sit on his FB that lacks solid location. He's allowed 6 ER in each of his last three starts with 3 HR and just 6 K's with 6 BB. His average start has lasted 5 1/3 innings and I strongly believe tonight's will be even shorter. Take the Blue Jays.  

10* graded play on the Miami Marlins using the Run Line as they take on the NY Mets in NL East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Marlins will win this game by 2 or more runs.  Supporting this graded play are several game situations. Miami is a solid money making 52-25 against the run line (+24.4 Units) facing a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons; 42-19 against the run line (+18.7 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons; Miami starter Alverez is a solid  11-2 against the run line (+10.2 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Alverez is a solid starter that relies on a very elite sinking fastball that he throws 49% of the time. He mixes in sliders at 13% of the time augmenting both pitches with an above average changeup 16%. Early in the count he will launch a four-seem FB that accounts for the 20% of remaining pitches. You will see him use the sinker as the first pitch of the AB. he has thrown sinker 52% of the time on the first pitch. He will use the change against LH batters and the slider mainly against RH. However, you will see him back door the slider to a LH hitter. I strongly believe the control he possesses will keep the Mets offense on their heels and I fully expect the Marlins to cruise to an easy win.  

10* graded play on the Oakland A's using the Run Line as they host the NY Yankees in AL action set to start at 10:05 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the A's will win this game by more than 2 runs. I like making this a combination wager consisting of an 7.5* amount using the Run Line and then a 3.5* amount using the money line for a total risk of 11* units. Given the ML is listed as a -156 favorite the actual risk must remain at 11* units. So, make certain you wager that way so that the ML is equal to 3.5* units of risk amount and not to win amount. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  53-10 mark for 84% winners since 1997.  Play on all favorites with a money line of -150 or more (OAKLAND) and is a team hitting <=.260 and with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games and is now facing a solid AL starting pitcher posting an ERA <=4.20. Oakland starts Kazmir and he is a near-perfect 11-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record; 40-12 (+23.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997; 11-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season;  23-4 (+16.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1997. Kazmir has been pitching fantastic baseball this season with a 7-2 record, 2.20 ERA, and a 0.976 WHIP in 13 starts spanning 82 innings of work. He has also posted a very strong BB/K ratio having recorded 70 K's and issuing just 17 BB. In his last three starts he has posted a 1.21 ERA with a 0.896 WHIP recording 25 K's and just 4 BB in 22 1/3 innings of work. Take the Oakland A's.  

10* graded play on the Texas Rangers as they host the Miami Marlins in inter-league action set to start at 8:05 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by 2 or more runs and cover the -1 1/2 run line. I am currently seeing Texas lined at -105 at the majority of books for the Run Line play. The play is obvious, but note that the majority of my releases are not only heavy favorites. In fact, if you follow me each day, you will be getting about 80% dogs over the a 3-day sample period. Of my pitcher rankings based on sabremetrics and some proprietary stats, Darvish ranks 4th best in MLB. In 11 starts he has posted a 2.36 ERA with a 1.140 WHIP, striking out 91 batters in 76 1/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts, he has posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.273 WHIP striking out 26 batters spanning 22 innings of work. In his last three starts he won 6-4 against Cleveland, 2-0 at Washington, and 9-2 at Detroit. Texas will get to hit and score runs against Jacob Turner, who has posted a 5.93 ERA with a 1.637 WHIP in 8 starts spanning 44 innings of work. During these starts he has fanned just 26 batters while walking 13. Normally, a strong starter will look to get to a 3:1 ratio of K's/BB. Take Texas using the Run Line  

10* graded play on Cleveland using the Run Line as they host Colorado in inter-league action set to start at 7:05 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that  Cleveland will win this game by 2 or more runs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-22 mark for 67.2% winners using the run line and has made 27.2 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against any NL team against a 1.5 run line (COLORADO) with a team batting average of .285 or better on the season and over the near-term is batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games. Here is a second system that has gone 74-37 for 67% winners and has made 37.1 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on any AL team against a 1.5 run line (CLEVELAND) with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season and is now facing a NL opponent with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season. Rockies are just 7-27 against the run line (-26.0 Units) facing an AL team with they batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons;  4-15 against the run line (-14.7 Units) vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons;  3-11 against the run line (-12.3 Units) in road games in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. Corey Kluber starts for the Indians and has been pitching fantastic baseball. He has gone 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and a 1.048 WHIP waking 5 and striking out 26 batters in this last three starts spanning 21 innings of work. These three starts were against Baltimore, Detroit, and Toronto so I certainly feel confident that he will do very well against a solid hitting Rockies team. The Rockies bat 0.285 and score 5.4 RPG in home tilts, BUT just 0.242 and 3.6 RPG in road games. Take the Indians using the Run Line