Rating: 2 Units

Sox need a bullpen game and could be without Casas and possibly Devers. Carrasco fared well enough in his last start and while pitching against the same club in consecutive outings can be challenging, the Sox haven't had enough continuity in their lineup to expect an improved performance this time around. Besides, the veteran righty has looked much better since returning in 2024 and has an elite bullpen backing him up. Cleveland's pen sports a 2.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with the most Ks and fewest HR allowed. The Guardians will string together enough hits against Boston's group of relievers to outlast them at home. They rank fifth in hits, sixth in total bases, and ninth in stolen bases per game this year. They're crushing lefty pitchers (.304/.365/.469/.834) and have performed well under the lights (.267/.333/.434/.767), as well. 16-6 both straight-up and against the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

Montgomery (1-0, 1.50 ERA) won his first start for Arizona over the San Francisco Giants on Friday. He will make his second today as the Diamondbacks face the St. Louis Cardinals to close their three-game road series. The Cardinals won the series opener 5-3 on Monday and the Diamondbacks rolled to a 14-1 victory Tuesday. Montgomery, who spent the bulk of last season with the Cardinals before his trade to the Texas Rangers, went six innings in his first start for the Diamondbacks. He held the Giants to one run on four hits while striking out three and walking nobody. The Cardinals will start Kyle Gibson (1-2, 5.04), who delivered a quality start in his last outing, a 2-1, 10-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday. Gibson allowed one run on three hits and four walks over six innings while getting in sync with catcher Willson Contreras. He is 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA in six career starts against the Diamondbacks.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams are trending in opposite directions, and the same could be said for the starting pitchers. The Orioles are hot, they have won six of their last seven games, and lead the major leagues in home runs with 33 home runs. They have four more home runs than the team in second place, the Red Sox. The Orioles generate runs at a high level, they rank 5th in the majors in run production. The Angels have not fared so well, they have lost four straight, including getting swept by the Reds. The Angels are only 20th in run production, and have not been putting up the same numbers as Baltimore. The Orioles will start Rodriguez here, they are 4-0 in his starts. In the other dugout, the Angels are starting Canning, and they are 0-4 in his starts. There pitching stats gives a big edge to the Orioles, as Rodriguez has 11 more strikeouts, has given up two fewer home runs, and has a much better ERA at 2.64, while Cannings is 8.05.

Rating: 2 Units

The Colorado offense has stalled out, and will have a tough time keeping up with San Diego's offense in this one. The Rockies have only generated four runs over the past three games combined, and are taking on the Padres who are in the top ten in runs scored, home runs and batting average as a team. It is a landslide in almost all statistical categories, the Padres have outscored the Rockies 118-80 this season, with ten more home runs, and a much lower ERA. The Rockies have the worst ERA in all of baseball at 5.88, as the thin Denver air is hurting them more than it helps. Colorado's starter Feltner has an ERA over 5, and will struggle to get out of innings against Tatis, Machado and company. Michael King has been far better on the mound, even in his only loss he struck out ten batters and only allowed two hits. San Diego will cruise an an easy victory here.

Rating: 2 Units

Oakland has been playing much better since its 1-7 start to the season. It gutted out a clutch win on Monday with just four hits, holding New York scoreless with zero extra-base hits. Now, it turns to Blackburn, who has been rock solid in 2024 and has fared well against the Yankees in the past. Plus, the Yankees are slashing just .227/.335/.351/.686 at home and really need Aaron Judge (.174 BA and 31 Ks in 86 ABs) to break out of his slump soon. With Stroman on the bump, I like Oakland's odds of at least keeping the final score close. The Yankees' starter got off to a solid start but wasn't as sharp in his last two appearances, putting eight runners on base in each outing. He gave up a home run in each of these starts and fanned just two Blue Jays in his last appearance. The A's may not be the most intimidating offense, but they're playing with some confidence. As long as Blackburn can give his team six innings of quality pitching, I like the value of a bet on the A's.

Rating: 2 Units

Grayson Rodriguez bullied the Angels in his season debut on March 30. He punched out nine across six frames while giving up just an earned run on four hits and a walk. Since then, Rodriguez has allowed two earned runs in each of his next three starts. On the other side, Reid Detmers met the O’s on the last day of March and fanned seven across five innings. He emerged victorious, allowing one earned run on two hits and three walks. Detmers has been outstanding so far this season, and Rodriguez has been nothing short of spectacular, too. I’m backing the Orioles to come out on top because of their offense. Baltimore has been killing the southpaws over the last ten days, posting a ridiculous 259 wRC+ in 76 plate appearances (.444/.474/.750 triple-slash).

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockies have not been winning many games this season, and they are not going to win games in back to back days, especially while taking on San Diego. The Padres have far more offensive firepower, they have big name stars in Tatis and Machado, as well as up and comers who have been producing in Profar and Merrill. The pitching edge goes to San Diego here, Cease has 27 strikeouts to just 11 walks while giving up only one home run, while Gomber only has 18 strikeouts and has given up four home runs in the same amount of starts. Even with their recent struggles, the Padres are still sixth in the majors in home runs. and the Rockies are dead last in team ERA at 6.06. San Diego gets back on track and opens up this series with a big win.

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 2.08 ERA) will take the mound to open the series. In seven career starts against the Royals, Kikuchi is 1-2 with a 6.37 ERA, earning the lone win on April 4, 2023, while allowing a run on three hits over five innings. Hunter Renfroe has a home run among three hits in five at-bats against Kikuchi. Right-hander Brady Singer (2-0, 1.54 ERA) will start for Kansas City today. Singer is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Blue Jays, having won the most recent outing on April 3, 2023, while allowing a run on two hits in five innings. Varsho has a home run in five at-bats against Singer. The Royals have won all four of Singer's 2024 starts as he has allowed no more than two runs in any outing. All four runs allowed over 23 1/3 innings scored on homers. Singer's .163 opponent batting average ranks third in the American League. The development of a split-change has helped him induce more weak contact.

Rating: 2 Units

The Tigers have won two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 16 runs in their last three games. They will play well offensively in this game because Varland hasn’t looked good on the mound for the Twins, giving up 15 runs in three starts. He gave up six runs in his last start against the Tigers and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Twins have lost six of their last eight games. They have struggled offensively and scored nine runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they are batting under .200 against right-handers and Mize has been solid on the mound, giving up seven runs in three starts. He gave up five runs in two road starts and with Detroit having the best bullpen in the league, they will keep Minnesota’s offense in check. Go with Detroit to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Stripling hasn’t earned a win in the majors since the 2022 campaign as he was 0-5 with the Giants last season ahead of being 0-4 this year. The A’s have hung tough early on this season and have been better than expected in the early going. Cleveland got the win in the opening game of this series as they were solid with runners in scoring position, going four of seven in those situations. The Guardians have had a lot of success in the early going this season and if Bibee can throw more strikes than he has in the early going, Cleveland should be in good shape here. Look for the Guardians to earn the victory in this contest.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia will hand the ball to right-hander Aaron Nola (2-1, 3.47 ERA), who will have a tough act to follow after Zach Wheeler flirted with a no-hitter on Saturday. Against the Rockies last Monday, Nola gave up four hits and one run with nine strikeouts and one walk over 7 1/3 innings. He did not factor into the decision as the Phillies won 2-1 in 10 innings. The White Sox will turn to right-hander Nick Nastrini (0-1, 3.60 ERA) on the mound. Nola is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in one career start against the White Sox. Despite scoring five runs in the ninth inning Saturday, the White Sox still fell to 3-17 for the worst 20-game start in franchise history.

MLB Free Pick - Tampa Bay at NYY

Although they are 14-7 in their first 21 games, the Yankees are 2-4 in their past six games. During that span, New York had a four-run ninth in Wednesday's 6-4 victory at Toronto, then put together a five-run seventh on Friday. Right-hander Aaron Civale (2-1, 2.74 ERA), who has completed six innings in three of his first four starts of the season, concludes the series for the Rays. Civale last pitched on Tuesday, when he took a no-decision after allowing three runs on five hits in six innings of Tampa Bay's 7-6 win over the Los Angeles Angels. Civale was acquired from the Cleveland Guardians ahead of last season's trade deadline. Yankee starter, Right-hander Luis Gil (0-1, 3.86) hopes he can display better command of the strike zone when he makes his 11th career start on Sunday. Gil has walked 14 in 14 innings across his first three outings. He issued seven free passes in five innings on Monday, also allowing three runs and three hits while taking a loss against the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Rating: 2 Units

In four starts, Texas pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has allowed eight runs in 24 ⅔ innings but five of those eight were in just one start, while holding three opponents to just three runs across 18 ⅔ innings. Atlanta starter Charlie Morgan has been roughed up in each of the last two outings, allowing 10 runs in 10 ⅔ innings while striking out 12 but walking six. Atlanta will play without second baseman Ozzie Albies, who thus far this season has five doubles, two home runs and 14 RBIs. Albies production at the plate will be missed in this series with Texas. Texas has won 16 of its last 20 played on the road and the Rangers have won four of the last six played on the road against Atlanta. The Braves have struggled a bit on the mound with a team ERA of 4.41 and WHIP of 1.33. Saturday's starting pitcher for Atlanta, Morton has an ERA that is even higher than the team average at 5.29.

Rating: 2 Units

Diamondbacks’ starter Zac Gallen has been dominant, allowing zero or one run in three of his four outings this season. He issued six scoreless innings against the Cardinals in his previous outing. The Diamondbacks have won in three of his four starts. Giants’ starter Kyle Harrison is an inexperienced pitcher. He has given up 10 runs in his last 17 innings pitched.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago will turn to right-hander Javier Assad (2-0, 2.16 ERA) for the opener of the twin bill. Assad's latest start was also against Seattle, and he came away with a victory after allowing two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings on Sunday. Assad has never faced Miami in his career. Going up against a pair of pitchers with sub-2.20 ERAs could pose a challenge for the Marlins, who fell to 4-16 on the season with an 8-3 loss to the Cubs on Friday. Miami totaled six hits in the setback, with three of them coming in the ninth inning. Southpaw Jesus Luzardo (0-2, 7.65 ERA) will attempt to keep Chicago at bay in Game 1 of the Saturday doubleheader. Luzardo escaped with a no-decision against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday despite surrendering five runs and seven hits in five innings.

Rating: 2 Units

With former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes pitching for the Baltimore Orioles and Brandon Woodruff recovering from shoulder surgery, Freddy Peralta has emerged as Milwaukee's staff ace. Peralta (2-0, 2.55 ERA) has been up to the task while striking out 26 batters and walking two in 17 2/3 innings in three starts. He will face a Cardinals lineup that is failing to generate much offense. The Cardinals have scored three runs or fewer in five straight games and in 10 of their past 11. While Peralta has been on point for the Brewers, Kyle Gibson (1-2, 6.16 ERA) has struggled for the Cardinals since signing as a free agent. He has allowed five homers in 19 innings over his three starts. Gibson took the loss in his last start on Saturday. He allowed four runs on six hits -- including Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s three-run homer -- and three walks in six innings against the Diamondbacks. Gibson is 1-2 with a 5.44 ERA in eight career starts against the Brewers.

Rating: 2 Units

The surprising A's begin a three-game series and 10-game road trip when they face the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Oakland begins the series on a hot streak after winning seven of its past 11 games, including a 6-3 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. The Athletics will send rookie right-hander Joe Boyle (1-2, 5.68 ERA) to the mound in the series opener. He allowed one run on five hits and one walk over five innings in a 3-1 loss to the Washington Nationals last Saturday. Boyle, 24, went 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts with the A's last season. He is making his first appearance against the Guardians. Cleveland will counter with right-hander Triston McKenzie (1-2, 6.23), who is looking to bounce back after giving up six runs (five earned) on four hits and six walks over four innings in an 8-2 loss to the New York Yankees last Saturday. The 26-year-old McKenzie has struck out five batters and issued 12 walks in his first three outings covering 13 innings.

Rating: 2 Units

Right-hander Jameson Taillon will finally make his season debut today when the host Chicago Cubs open a four-game set with the Miami Marlins. After a strong season with the New York Yankees in 2022, Taillon took a step back with Chicago in 2023, going 8-10 with a 4.84 ERA. He went 4-6 with a 4.62 ERA at home, and only one of those wins came before the All-Star break. Activated from the 15-day injured list on Thursday, Taillon (back) is 2-0 with a glistening 0.54 ERA in three career starts against Miami. Left-hander A.J. Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA) will try to slow down Busch and the Cubs when he makes his fourth start of the campaign today. Puk had never started a game prior to this season, and he hasn't had a smooth transition into his new role. In each of his first three outings this year, Puk has lasted no longer than 4 2/3 innings, a mark he reached on April 9 in a loss to the New York Yankees. Puk yielded two runs (one earned) on four hits and five walks against New York. Puk is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in four career relief appearances against Chicago.

Rating: 2 Units

I like the value of a bet on the Diamondbacks ML at roughly +150 odds. Webb hasn't been terrible, but he's put too many runners on base this season (17 in his last two starts combined). He isn't striking out a lot of batters, either (five or fewer Ks in all four starts). Arizona has plenty of offensive weapons and is averaging 5.7 runs per game. Given the Giants' struggles on offense, I don't expect Nelson to struggle much. San Francisco has scored three or fewer runs in eight of its last twelve games and is slashing .233/.307/.370/.677 vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Webb may be the bigger name, but I believe Nelson will hold his own. With early run support, he should last long enough to give his tired bullpen a rest. Besides, I'm not confident the Giants will have better luck against the D-Backs' pen. If anything, bettors should be wary of the home team's relief group (5.05 ERA).

Rating: 2 Units

Toronto is scheduled to start struggling Kevin Gausman (0-2, 11.57 ERA) today against fellow right-hander and former Blue Jay Marcus Stroman (1-1, 2.12). Stroman is 0-0 with an 0.82 ERA in two career starts vs. Toronto. This will be the second time Stroman has pitched in Toronto since he was traded to the New York Mets during the 2019 season. He held the Blue Jays to one run over five innings with the Chicago Cubs on Aug. 30, 2022. Gausman is 10-8 with a 3.27 ERA in 32 career outings (26 starts) against the Yankees. He allowed six runs (five earned) over 1 1/3 innings in a 9-8 loss in New York on April 6. He followed that last Friday by permitting six runs on 10 hits over 3 2/3 frames to the Colorado Rockies in a 12-4 loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals are off to a great start this season and part of that success is due to the return to form of starting pitcher Singer. Singer has found his strikeout pitch again after struggling in 2023 with just 133 strikeouts. He is well ahead of that pace this year and looks like a top-two starter in the rotation. The Royals are hitting home runs at a fast pace already with 20 on the season and that doesn't bode well for White Sox starter Fedde. Fedde has already given up five home runs in just three starts this season. The White Sox, as a team, are hitting just .200 as team this season and have struck out 132 times as a team.

Rating: 2 Units

Atlanta has won seven of the last 10 and 10 of the first 15 to start the season. Houston has lost five of the last seven and dating back to last season have lost 15 in the last 20 at home. At the plate, Atlanta is first in team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while third in runs scored. Houston is next to last in team ERA at 5.35 and 28th in batting average allowed (.265). Atlanta starting pitcher Max Fried is coming off a solid outing in which the left-hander gave up four hits and one run in 6 plus innings last Friday with Atlanta defeating Miami 8-1.  Houston starting pitcher J.P. France is off to a slow start. Across three outings, the right-hander has allowed 14 runs in 15 plus innings while striking out 12 but walking seven. Houston has lost each of France’s three starts.  As mentioned twice previously, Houston is playing without four starting pitchers from last season's starting rotation, due to injuries, which puts more pressure on both the starting rotation and bullpen.

Rating: 2 Units

Oakland’s lineup is one of the worst in baseball. The current Athletics are only 10-for-43 with three home runs and four RBI against Lance Lynn. The A’s own an 85 wRC+ against the right-handed pitchers in April, so it’s hard to trust them in this matchup. I cannot take the A’s even though their bullpen has been terrific so far this month. The Cardinals have a 98 wRC+ against the southpaws in April and are 4-for-11 with a home run and two RBI versus JP Sears. Their bullpen has registered a strong 2.23 ERA and 2.63 FIP so far this month (40.1 innings pitched), so I’m backing the Cards to come out on top.  

Rating: 2 Units

The Giants split their last four games. They are playing well offensively and scored 16 runs in their last three road games. Expect them to pay well offensively in this game because they have crushed left-handed pitching this season and Weathers has been shaky on the mound, giving up six runs in three starts. He gave up three runs in his lone home start, and with Miami having the third-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Giants in this game. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 home games. They are playing well offensively and scored 13 runs in their last three home games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Hicks has been brilliant on the mound this season, giving up three runs in three starts. He gave up one run in his lone start against the Marlins and will keep their offense in check. Go with San Francisco to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Sonny Gray's first start as a Cardinal was strong, and he'll return home as a pitcher that limits damage consistently. Behind him is a solid bullpen. Against an Athletics offense that is still among MLB's worst, expect St. Louis' pitching to keep Oakland in check. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will get hits off Ross Stripling, as his H/9 (13.0) is the reason that Oakland keeps losing his starts. St. Louis will get runs early and often. They should parlay that into a multi-run victory on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to bounce back behind resurrected right-hander Joe Ross when they host the San Diego Padres today in the opener of a short three-game homestand. Ross (1-0, 1.80 ERA), who missed most of the last two seasons after a second Tommy John surgery, makes his third start for Milwaukee. Right-hander Joe Musgrove (1-2, 6.87), who gave up one hit over eight innings the last time he faced the Brewers, gets the nod for the Padres. Musgrove was charged with four runs on five hits in four innings in his most recent start, a 5-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday. He allowed a leadoff homer in the fifth then left three batters later with the bases loaded. Reliever Stephen Kolek then surrendered a grand slam to the first batter he faced. Musgrove is 1-3 with a 4.04 ERA in eight career starts vs. Milwaukee.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox will send right-hander Nick Nastrini to make his major league debut today. Nastrini, 24, was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of last year's trade deadline for right-handers Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. Nastrini has made two starts at Triple-A Charlotte, going 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. He made five appearances (three starts) in spring training this year, going 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA. The Royals will send right-hander Seth Lugo (2-0, 1.45 ERA), who will be making his fourth start of the season. In his most recent start last Wednesday night against the Houston Astros, Lugo earned his second win of the year, allowing two runs on seven hits in six innings, striking out two. Lugo, who is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his career against Chicago, will be making his second career start (third appearance) against the White Sox. Lugo allowed one run on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings, striking out three and walking two against the White Sox on April 4 to earn his first win with Kansas City.

Rating: 2 Units

Chicago isn't going anywhere, but Cincinnati could be on the verge of a breakout season. The Reds have power, potential, and pitching — the White Sox have none of those things. The visitors will jump on Soroka early, giving Ashcraft the run support necessary to turn in a quality start. The Reds' SP hasn't been lights out, but he has fanned 11 batters in 11.1 IP and held the Phillies to two earned runs in his season debut. After facing Philadelphia and Milwaukee, he should find it much easier to work through the Sox lineup.

Rating; 2 Units

This Marlins squad has been miserable at home. Not only are they winless, but all but one of those defeats came by multiple runs. Matching up a struggling Jesus Luzardo, who has started three losses, against an Atlanta offense that's arguably MLB's best, is a nightmare matchup. Charlie Morton's lone road start of 2024 was what every team wants, scoreless. The Braves' bullpen has had issues, but Miami's offense is among MLB's weakest. This is another game where they can succeed. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Brewers have been road warriors this season. They have won three straight road games and six of their last seven overall. They are playing well offensively and scored 27 runs in their last three road games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they feasted on right-handed pitching this season and they’re batting over .290 against righties. Even though Corbin has pitched well this season, he hasn't been as sharp at home, and with Baltimore’s bullpen struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Orioles have lost two of their last three home games. They are struggling offensively, scoring only six runs in their last three home games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Rea has done a good job on the mound for the Brewers, giving up three runs in two starts. He didn’t give up a run in his lone start against the Orioles last season and will keep their offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona starter Ryne Nelson has an 8.33 ERA. The Diamondbacks have lost five of the last seven, five of the last six at home versus St Louis and Arizona is 2-4 in its last six against an opponent from the National League. St Louis is 14-6 in the last 20 versus Arizona and 5-1 in the last six on the road against the Diamondbacks. St. Louis is a solid 3.99 in team ERA. Arizona is allowing opponents to hit .246 and before winning two straight had lost five straight, allowing five runs or more in each of the five losses. Arizona is 25th in errors per game, committing an average of 0.85.

Rating: 2 Units

Tampa Bay is 4-1 in the last five games, while San Francisco is 3-7 in the last 10 games, and 2-4 in the last six in the six versus Tampa Bay. San Francisco has lost nine of the last 12 in April. Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot was hit hard in his first outing, but bounced back strong last time out when holding Colorado, at Coors Field, to three hits and no runs in six innings. Logan Webb has allowed nine runs in 19 ⅔ innings for an ERA of nearly 5.00. San Francisco’s team ERA is 27th at 5.06 and is allowing teams to average .262 at the plate. Tampa Bay’s Isaac Paredes is off to a strong start with four home runs and 10 RBIs.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia has fared much better against left-handed pitchers (.277 BA/.358 OBP/.361 SLG/.719 OPS) than right-handers this season (.208/.283/.350/.633), and while Gonzales has pitched well in his first two outings, his track record isn't reliable. He has been home run-prone during his career, allowing 29 long balls in 2021 and 30 in 2022. The home team's powerful lineup will inflict damage on the lefty hurler's ERA early in tomorrow's game, building a lead for Turnbull. Philly's pen has performed poorly this season, but with a comfortable lead, Turnbull should last long enough to take pressure off of it.

Rating: 2 Units

Cincinnati is not off to the best start but it's playing one of the weakest teams in baseball, as the White Sox have been decimated by injuries. Chicago is without Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert and Max Stassi, who all contribute considerably at the plate. The loss of several players for Chicago has resulted in the White Sox being 25th in slugging percentage, 26th in team batting average and 29th in runs scored, averaging 2.42 runs per game. Chicago has lost 12 of its last 14. Cincinnati starting pitcher Andrew Abboitt has had two solid outings allowing 10 hits and five runs in 10 ⅓ innings. In contrast, Chicago starting pitcher Chris Flexen has allowed seven earned runs in 10 ⅔ innings resulting in losses to Atlanta and Kansas City. Flexen has a 5.91 ERA.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals have won seven straight games. They’ve been on a roll offensively and scored 28 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they’ve hit the ball well against right-handers this season and Severino struggled in his first home start, giving up six runs in the loss to Milwaukee. Even though he is 3-1 against the Royals, he didn’t pitch well in recent starts against them, giving up 13 runs in his last three starts against Kansas City, so expect him to have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Mets have won five of their last seven games. They have also played well offensively, scoring 29 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they’re batting under .200 against right-handers and Wacha has looked good on the mound for the Royals, giving up only three runs in two starts. He is 5-3 against the Mets and gave up 10 runs in his last four starts against them. With Kansas City’s bullpen playing well at the moment, they won’t have a hard time keeping New York’s offense in check. Go with Kansas City to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a tough scheduling spot for the Orioles, as they were on the road and playing well into the night against Boston before having to travel home to take on the well rested Brewer team. On top of that, Milwaukee has the best power hitter, and the better pitcher in the matchup. Christian Yelich has more home runs that the top two Orioles combined, he has been excellent lately and is fueling this Milwaukee attack. This will be bad news for Tyler Wells, as he lost both of his starts this season, allowing at least three runs and a home run in each of his two starts. Peralta has been much better for the Brewers, and has struck out 15 while only walking two, with the Brewers winning each of his two starts. The Brewers will steal the first game here on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Royals have momentum after a solid start to 2024 and Singer has been impressive in his first two outings. The Astros aren't consistently producing at the plate and have been held to three or fewer runs in four of their last five games (prior to Wednesday's action). These Astros hitters haven't seen Singer since the 2022 season. Considering Brown's recent struggles, I feel confident the wrong team is favored. He may have better stuff tomorrow, but I'm not betting on that outcome. If the Royals get out to an early lead, the Astros will be leaving town with another series loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Lugo has been outstanding in his two starts thus far, most importantly by keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding giving up extra-base hits. Brown has not been very good thus far, struggling with the strike zone and giving up 12 hits in just seven innings of work. Last year, Brown was roughed up by these same Royals including coughing up four home runs in his lone start against KC. The Royals have been getting exceptional pitching thus far with a team ERA under three and a team WHIP of 1.01. Lugo's ability to keep the ball on the ground will be key to victory here against an Astros team that has 16 home runs on the season heading into Tuesday night's game against KC.

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles jumped all over Boston's pitching yesterday, scoring seven runs on 13 hits. They were 8-for-15 with runners in scoring position. The Red Sox scored one run in the bottom of the first but were held scoreless the rest of the afternoon, managing just two hits against SP Corbin Burnes and the O's bullpen. I'm anticipating a better performance by the home team today against Irvin, who didn't fare well against Boston last season, as 1B Triston Casas hit a three-run homer and 3B Rafael Devers went 2-for-4. The Orioles starter put nine runners on base in his 2024 debut versus the Royals, and I expect Boston to take advantage of these opportunities after yesterday's dud. Crawford is expected to go for Boston, which should be good news for Sox fans. He has allowed just five hits with 12 Ks in 10.2 combined innings this season and held Baltimore scoreless in his lone appearance against them last year (one hit with seven Ks in 6.0 IP on Sept. 30). He and the Red Sox bullpen (fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeouts) should perform well enough to quiet the Orioles' bats. 

Rating: 2 Units

Nola (1-1, 5.40 ERA) allowed seven runs, six earned, in 4 1/3 innings during a 12-4 loss to the Atlanta Braves on March 30. He rebounded as the Phillies blanked the host Washington Nationals 4-0 on Friday. Nola walked four batters in the blustery conditions but gave up only two hits over 5 2/3 innings. Nola went 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals last season. In his career, he is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 11 starts vs. St. Louis. Lance Lynn (0-0, 4.15 ERA) will make his third start of the season for the Cardinals. He threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers before a Southern California rainstorm cut short his March 30 start. In his second outing, Lynn served up three home runs to the Miami Marlins in 4 2/3 innings on Thursday, though the Cardinals won 8-5. He allowed four runs on eight hits in that contest.

Rating: 2 Units

Philadelphia has won seven of the last eight head-to-head versus St Louis and the Phillies have won four of the last five played on the road at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals. Although Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler is 0-1, the right-hander has pitched very well in two outings allowing just one run in 12 innings pitched with 15 strikeouts and one walk. St Louis starting pitcher Sonny Gray will be making his season debut and will likely not pitch more than three to four innings. St Louis has struggled at the plate thus far with a team batting average of .222 and a .343 slugging percentage. The Cardinals OPS is just .643. Philadelphia is not that much better at this point, but the Phillies are higher in each of the three previous categories with a .229 team batting average, .358 slugging percentage and .675 OPS.

Rating; 2 Units

The Yankees destroyed Jesus Luzardo, as both Juan Soto and Anthony Volpe took the Marlins’ lefty deep. The Yankees should be fired up to stay hot against another southpaw in A.J. Puk. It’s hard to trust Puk, who served as Miami’s closer for most of the 2023 season. He’s been pretty bad over his first two showings in 2024. Furthermore, the Marlins bullpen holds an ugly 6.11 ERA, whereas the Yankees’ relievers have recorded a 2.88 ERA so far this season.

Rating: 2 Units

James Paxton is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins. Last season, he met the Twins once as a member of the Red Sox and threw 6.1 frames of a three-run ball in a winning effort. On the other side, Bailey Ober emerged victorious in his lone career start against the Dodgers. Last year, he held the Blue Crew to one earned run on six hits. I’m backing the Dodgers because of their scary lineup. The Dodgers lead the majors in home runs (15) and are third in OPS (.816). They are hitting a strong .298/.373/.477 against the right-handed pitchers, and it’s hard to trust Bailey Ober in this matchup. The Dodgers are 12-1 in their last 13 meetings with the Twins. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Atlanta Braves are far and away the better team and should be able to dominate against a struggling New York Mets team. We do not know what is going to be coming out of Julio Teheran while Charlie Morton has been dominating throughout his old age. This Braves team has been the best offensive team throughout the beginning stages of the season and should be able to continue doing extremely well. Ronald Acuna Jr. is 4-for-6 with a home run while Marcell Ozuna has a 1.024 OPS in 53 at-bats. All in all, go with the Atlanta Braves to cover the run line in this game. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees have won seven of their last nine games. They are playing well offensively, scoring at least five runs in three of their last four games. They will play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against left-handers and they’ve had a lot of success against Luzardo, who gave up five runs in his first two starts. He is 0-2 in two starts against the Yankees, giving up 10 runs in those starts. With Miami also having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Yankees in this game. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games. Even though they played well offensively in their last game, they haven’t looked good on that end so far and scored only 11 runs in their previous four games. Even though Cortez has been shaky on the mound so far, giving up seven runs in two starts, expect the Marlins to struggle offensively in this game because they are batting under .200 against left-handers and Cortez is backed up by one of the best bullpens in the league, so even if they get to him, the damage will be minimized. Go with New York to cover the money line. 

Rating: 2 Units

Miami is 27th in team ERA, 28th in WHIP and 25th in batting average allowed. The Marlins are not much better at the plate, sitting 25th in team batting average, 26th in on base percentage and 27th in slugging percentage. St Louis is slightly better on the mound with the 18th-best ERA. Miami starter Max Meyer had a solid outing in his season debut allowing two runs in five innings including serving up one home run but the Marlins lost nonetheless.  Kyle Gibson had a strong debut with St Louis on the mound. Gibson gave up two runs in seven innings to beat the San Diego Padres 6-2 last Monday. Miami has lost eight straight to open the season and the Marlins are 1-9 over the last 10 games played on the road versus St Louis. St Louis has won four of its last six.

Rating; 2 Units

The Brewers have won five of their last six games. They are playing well offensively and scored 12 runs in their last three games. They will play well offensively in this game because they’re batting over .270 against right-handers and Hancock didn’t look good on the mound in his first start, giving up three runs in five innings. With Seattle’s bullpen also struggling during their slump, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Mariners have lost three straight games. They are struggling offensively, scoring seven runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they’re barely batting over .200 against right-handers and Rea looked good on the mound in his first start, giving up only one run. With Milwaukee’s bullpen also playing well, they won’t have trouble keeping Seattle’s offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

This Marlins team is in absolute shambles right now, so there’s just no way that I can back them in this spot. Steven Matz gets the nod, and the southpaw has owned this Miami roster throughout his career. It’s a slim 31-at-bat sample size, but he’s limited them to a slash line of .194/.219/.258. Furthermore, Matz looked really solid in his season debut against the Dodgers, so I think he may parlay that performance into another respectable start against the floundering Fish. I believe the Red Birds have the edge in starting pitching, the bullpen, and offensively. Let’s not overthink this one, let’s lock in St. Louis at home.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams come into this game with momentum as they each earned road sweeps in their early week series. Neither team beat a juggernaut as the Red Sox swept the A’s while the Angels swept the winless Marlins but you take your wins where you can get them. Boston has been solid so far this season and they have the advantage on the bump in this contest with Crawford looking sharp in his debut. Meanwhile, Canning was roughed up by the Orioles in his season debut and the Red Sox are hitting the ball well right now. Look for the Red Sox to ding Canning and put this one in the win column.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mets will send left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86 ERA) to the mound in the series opener at Cincinnati. Quintana allowed six hits and two runs over 4 2/3 innings and took a 3-1 loss against the Milwaukee Brewers on March 29 in the season opener. In his career against the Reds, Quintana is 5-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 14 games (13 starts). The Reds will counter with Hunter Greene (0-0, 3.86), also making his second start of the season. The right-hander was the victim of some shoddy fielding behind him in the Washington Nationals' 7-6 comeback win on Saturday. Greene allowed five hits and just two runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out seven and walking four in a no-decision.

Rating: 2 Units

The Yankees will attempt to keep Toronto's offense quiet by starting former Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman (1-0, 0.00 ERA). He made his Yankee debut Saturday and allowed three unearned runs on four hits in six innings of a 5-3 win at Houston. Stroman is making his second start against the Blue Jays since they traded him to the New York Mets in 2019. He faced them on Aug. 30, 2022 for the Chicago Cubs and allowed one run in five innings of a no-decision. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 6.23), who allowed three runs in 4 1/3 innings Saturday against the Rays, starts for Toronto. He is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) against the Yankees.

Rating: 2 Units

While the Cardinals began their season by going 3-4 in California against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, the reeling Marlins lost all seven games of their opening homestand against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Angels. St. Louis starter, Lynn (0-0, 0.00 ERA) threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start of the season on Saturday. He allowed four hits, walked one and struck out five before a rain delay cut short his outing. The Marlins will counter Lynn with left-hander Ryan Weathers (0-1, 6.75 ERA). He is part of a Miami rotation that is missing injured starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. Weathers allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings during a 9-3 loss to the Pirates during his season debut on Saturday. He needed 94 pitches to get 12 outs.  I love betting on teams in their home openers when it makes sense.  This one makes sense.

Rating: 2 Units

Rockies have gotten off to a forgettable start to the 2024 season, as they have dropped five of their first six games and three in a row while allowing an average of 8.2 runs per contest. After finishing a franchise-worst 59-103 last season, the 1-5 mark this year ties them with the 2005 and 2008 Colorado teams for the worst start in Rockies history.Hoping to start the turnaround for the Rockies is Wednesday's scheduled starter, Cal Quantrill (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who gave up five runs in five innings to the Diamondbacks in the second game of the season. In five career appearances against the Cubs, Quantrill is 1-2 with an 8.22 ERA. Cubs and Counsell will hand the ball first to left-hander Luke Little -- 0-0, 0.00 ERA in two games covering two innings this season -- in what likely will be a bullpen game for the pitching staff on Wednesday. Little pitched a scoreless ninth inning Tuesday.

Rating: 2 Units

Red Sox starters were stunning through the first five games of the season, combining to allow just five runs (four earned) across 28 innings, good for an ERA of 1.29. Of the five pitchers who started, Pivetta (0-1, 1.50 ERA) was among three who worked six innings, while the other two lasted five. Opponents mustered 17 hits against the starting rotation, which racked up 37 strikeouts against just one walk. Pivetta is 5-0 with a glistening 0.82 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against Oakland. Fellow right-hander Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.20 ERA) will oppose Pivetta today after allowing five runs (four earned) and seven hits in five innings against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Stripling was tagged with the loss, and he hasn't picked up a win since Oct. 1, 2022, while pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Rating: 2 Units

Alex Wood's first start was horrible, and in this start (in the same building), he has an offense that should be even tougher. Oakland's bullpen can't be trusted to stop any bleeding. Expect Boston's offense to have a great night. Bello is facing an offense that was MLB's worst a year ago and didn't make any significant moves that project to change that for 2024. Through four games, the Athletics have drawn walks at a decent rate, and that's about it. Bello didn't issue a single walk in his first start, a strong winning effort.

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore looked excellent in their first two games of the season, scoring at least 11 runs in each game, and now they will be playing a pitcher who was only 3-9 last season. Alec Marsh is starting for the Royals, he struggled last year and only had a 5.69 ERA. The Baltimore bats will get hot in this one, as Henderson and Santander are both off to a quick start to the 2024 season. Baltimore has 25 runs through their first three games, while KC only had 13, and 11 of them came in one game. The Royals hit five homers in their only win, but have shown very little offensive production outside that. The Baltimore pitching staff has five more strikeouts than the Royals, and are beating them in virtually every category.

Rating: 2 Units

Six games into a 162-game season, the San Diego Padres are showing the type of offensive punch they so often lacked last year. Sunday's 13-4 rout of the San Francisco Giants marked their second double-figure game and gave them 45 runs, an average of 7.5 runs per game. They collected five doubles and two homers in the first three innings alone. San Diego will try to keep up that prodigious production tonight when it welcomes the St. Louis Cardinals to town for the opener of a three-game series. The Cardinals arrive in San Diego after a difficult 5-4 loss Sunday at the Los Angeles Dodgers. St. Louis was in position to split its opening series of the season after taking a 4-0 lead in the sixth but its bullpen coughed up the lead, denying Steven Matz a win. Matz's 5 1/3 innings tied Zack Thompson for the longest stint any of the team's four starters enjoyed in Los Angeles. That means the Cardinals could use a long outing from one of their free agent acquisitions, veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson, who gets the start today. Coming off a 15-9 season in 2023 for the American League East champion Baltimore Orioles, Gibson would like to improve on his 4.73 ERA. He'll make his sixth career start against San Diego, going 2-1 with a 4.28 ERA in the previous five and 1-0 with a 6.32 ERA in three outings at Petco Park. Finally, last year teams that played on Sunday night and had to travel seemed to never win when having to play Monday in a quick turnaround, and that's where the Cardinals are tonight.

Rating; 2 Units

Did the Royals empty their tank on Sunday? After scoring just two runs in their first two games, they broke out offensively in the series finale. I'm not so sure they can sustain their offensive momentum tomorrow, however. Baltimore SP Kremer was a solid bet at home last season and was 11-3 with a 3.70 ERA in 22 night games, as well. I'm also betting on the O's offense to come back to life. After throttling the Angels for 24 combined runs in their first two games, they managed just one run through seven innings on Sunday. Wacha's ERA was nearly 1.5 runs higher on the road than at home in 2023. His first start for Kansas City will be challenging — I would rather back Kremer today.

Rating: 2 Units

The Angels already had a team meeting to attempt to rebuild confidence in the team. This meetings rarely ever rebuild confidence, as the team knows things are already not looking good. Baltimore scored 24 runs in their first two games against Los Angeles, and now they are taking on their third best pitcher. Detmers had a 4.48 ERA last season, and the Baltimore bats will be able to put up numbers again here. In just two games, the Orioles have four players that already have three hits, their lineup is a well-oiled machine, and it starts at the top. Henderson has been excellent this season, and will keep the momentum going here against a Los Angeles team that may be hitting the panic button too early.

Rating: 2 Units

Canning has been a bit of a project, teasing Angels fans with upside but failing to sustain success. His first start of the 2024 season will be a challenge, as Baltimore is fired up and coming off an 11-run shellacking of LA on Opening Day. I'm betting the O's bats will come to life again after a day off on Friday, chasing Canning from the game early. With early run support, Rodriguez will shine, building off of his late-season success in 2023 (2-1 with a 2.64 ERA in August and 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA in September).

Rating: 2 Units

The Guardians had a very good pitching staff last season and they have one of their best pitchers taking the mound in this game. The Athletics had one of the worst offenses in the league and they’re bringing back the core of that team. They didn’t have a lot of success against left-handers and didn’t play well when they faced Allen, who gave up two hits and no runs in his lone start against them. With Cleveland also having a good bullpen, they will keep Oakland’s offense in check. The Athletics also had one of the worst pitching in the league last season. Even though they added some depth in the offseason, Stripling didn’t look good on the mound last season, finishing with an ERA that was over 5. He gave up four runs in four innings in his last start against the Guardians and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. Go with Cleveland to cover the money line.

Rating; 2 Units

While the Angels will be without their former two-way ace, the Orioles went out and added one as right-hander Corbin Burnes will get the Opening Day assignment for Baltimore. Burnes, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner, went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA and league-best 1.069 WHIP (walks and hits to innings pitched ratio) last season. The 29-year-old was acquired in a February trade after Baltimore won the American League East in 2023 but was roughed up by Texas hitters in a three-game AL Division Series sweep. Burnes allowed two runs, one unearned, in 5 1/3 innings in his final spring training start. He gave up five hits and struck out four in 57 pitches and then turned his attention to the Angels. The Orioles will also have a new closer, 35-year-old Craig Kimbrel, signed as a free agent this past winter. Kimbrel, owner of 417 career saves, fills in for All-Star right-hander Felix Bautista, who will miss 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Rating: 2 Units

Zac Gallen was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the regular season and regularly got the Diamondbacks deep into games and to the backend of their bullpen. In the playoffs, that hasn't been the case. Gallen has only one quality start in the postseason and he has consistently been hit hard, particularly with fastballs up in the zone. In fact, Gallen's weariness has shown up in his strikeout rate which has dropped by more than four per game in the playoffs. On the other side, Eovaldi has only gotten better as the season turned to October. The playoff-savvy righty has won all four of his starts this postseason and has pitched at least six innings in each of his four starts. While Gallen has struggled with runners in scoring position, Eovaldi has thrived. Eovaldi had the best ERA in baseball with RISP in the regular season and that trend has continued in the postseason. While the D-backs have gotten solid offensive production out of Marte, with his 16-game hitting streak, and Carroll seems to be heating up, the Diamondbacks have less threats all across their lineup. The Rangers, meanwhile, are loaded with hitting threats throughout the lineup with Corey Seager, Evan Carter and Josh Jung combing for seven home runs and all hitting at or near .300 in the playoffs. That doesn't include red-hot Adolis Garcia who has seven home runs himself and 20 RBI in the playoffs. This series will be fascinating but game one won't be quite as interesting.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rangers and Astros have failed to protect their home field in all six games of this series thus far. The Rangers are now 7-0 on the road in the postseason after being a relatively mediocre road team this season. The Astros are 40-46 overall at home this season and 1-4 at home in the postseason. Despite that, I'm leaning toward the Astros in the seventh and deciding game. The Astros will be sending Javier to the hill and his postseason track record over the last two postseasons has been remarkable. He has an ERA under one and a half in five appearances, including four starts. He is a perfect 4-0 in that time and allowed a total of just six hits in 23.2 innings of work. Javier has a fairly rested backend of the bullpen, particularly the closer Ryan Pressly, ready to go behind him. The Rangers will start Scherzer but I'm certainly concerned with the righty's ability to get very deep into this start after going four innings in his return in game three. Scherzer is a gamer but his stuff is not nearly as dominant as it was in 2019 when he led the Nationals to the World Title. The Rangers are built to win when their starters get deep into games and Bochy can manipulate the bullpen with the right matchups to close out the game, as he was able to do in games 1, 2, and 6. When his starters don't get deep into the game, Bochy's bullpen is exposed. I expect that to happen again.

Rating: 2 Units

Arizona found some life in Game 3 by winning in walk-off fashion and pulled an incredible win out in Game 4, but the question is whether the Snakes can conjure up that kind of magic two more times to win the series. We saw this pitching matchup at Citizens Bank Park Monday night with Wheeler dealing for six strong frames while Gallen was tagged for three homers en route to giving up five runs in five innings. The Phillies still have the stronger pitching as they were solid even in the Game 3 defeat. We’ve seen Philadelphia’s bats do the job in the postseason time and again: that should be the case here as the Phillies earn the win as Wheeler turns in another solid outing.

Rating: 2 Units

This afternoon's matchup between the Astros and Rangers appears to be the immovable object against the unstoppable force. The Astros are undefeated on the road in the playoffs and had the best road record in baseball this season. The Rangers are a perfect 3-0 in games started by Friday's starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery. The Astros have their own postseason hero going in this game in Justin Verlander, however. Verlander is 1-1 this postseason after game one's loss to the Rangers but the righty allowed just two runs in the game while giving Houston his second straight quality start of the postseason. Verlander is also 7-3 on the road this season with an ERA just over 3.00. He will be backed by an Astros' offense that has absolutely feasted at Globe Life Field. Following Thursday night's win, the Astros have won eight of their last nine games played at Texas and have hit an incredible 26 home runs as a team while averaging 8.9 runs per game. The Rangers have scored just 40 runs in that same span against the Astros. Jose Altuve has been a one-man wrecking crew at Globe Life Field, hitting eight home runs there this year including one in this series. The Astros' bullpen will be rested and ready to back Verlander in the late innings once again and, this time, Verlander should have offensive support behind him.

Rating: 2 Units

Game four is by far the most intriguing game of this ALCS thus far. Both teams were rather mum on the starter for this game although the moves by each manager in game three seem to have established Urquidy vs. Heaney as the initial matchup for game four. Both pitchers will have a short leash in game four as the Astros look to knot the series while the Rangers look to take a daunting 3-1 lead. Urquidy is the more established postseason pitcher in this matchup with 13 appearances in his career in October. He will be backed up by starters Hunter Brown and J.P. France in the early innings and then the usual suspects out of the Astros bullpen from the fifth inning on. The Rangers will likely turn to Heaney with his solid showings against Houston this season and he will be backed up by Dane Dunning in the early innings. The emergence of Jose Altuve in game three and then the patience shown by Kyle Tucker at the plate should give the Astros lineup a huge boost. The Rangers' offense has cooled a bit in this series with two runs in game one and then four runs through two innings in game two before going hitless through the fourth inning in game three. The streaky Rangers will need to find their relentless offense again soon. I like the Astros to knot this series in game four with big games from all the big bats, particularly Altuve, Tucker and the red-hot Yordan Alvarez. Their bullpen was touched up for three runs in game three but they didn't have to use Phil Maton or Rafael Montero. The Rangers bullpen will be rested with all the primary relievers rested in game three but they looked shaky in game two. The Astros will turn the pressure on in game four and use their experience to knot this series heading into game five.

Rating: 2 Units

I'm going with the defending champs to pick up their first series win tonight. Scherzer is undoubtedly one of the best pitchers of this generation but comes into this game pitching for the first time in over a month. He also was hit hard in two starts against the Astros this season, coughing up four home runs in the process. He no longer has the kind of velocity to challenge hitters and he may struggle with location on Wednesday in his first start since September 12th. Javier was also hit hard this season by Texas, with a no-decision in his only start against them. He didn't last five innings in the game, however. The postseason has been a different thing altogether for Javier in the past few seasons. He stormed his way to a 3-0 mark in last year's postseason and picked up a win in his only start this year. Javier is now 4-0 in his last five postseason starts while allowing just three hits in 17.2 innings of work. Lost in yet another Rangers' win on Monday was the offense cooling off over the final six innings. In fact, the Astros bullpen has been nearly un-hittable in the series and has yet to allow a run in two games. Unfortunately, Houston hasn't been able to combine their offense with their pitching yet in the series. The Astros are under .500 on the season at home this year but have the best road record in baseball. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Arizona Diamondbacks are enjoying an incredible run, winning all five playoff games and doing so against division winners. They swept Milwaukee and easily swept the Dodgers by outscoring them 19-6. Arizona is known for the hitting but the pitching has been incredible, allowing three or fewer runs in all five postseason games. D-Backs’ starter Zac Gallen limited the Brewers and Dodgers to just two runs spanning 11.1 innings in this postseason. Gallen has dominated the Phillies throughout his career, sporting a dazzling 2.22 ERA and a 3-1 record in 24.1 innings. While the Phillies have also been dominant, Arizona scored four runs against Wheeler in the first meeting this season. Arizona has won all four playoff road games.

Rating: 2 Units

The numbers heading into game two point in many ways to the Rangers taking a 2-0 lead in this series. They have won six straight games, Nathan Eovaldi is 2-0 in the playoffs, and the Astros are now four games under .500 at home this season. Intangibles still count for something, but I will back this Astros team coming off a World Series title and making their seventh straight appearance in the ALCS. Houston turns to lefty Framber Valdez in game two and, while the lefty is just 1-2 against the Rangers this season and 0-1 in this postseason, his career mark of 7-3 in the playoffs proves he is a big-game pitcher. On Monday afternoon, Valdez will need to be all that and more against the Rangers. One thing to note from Sunday night's game is the Rangers' quiet night at the plate. The Rangers have been notoriously streaky at the plate and were quiet in game one with just six hits. The Astros' bats were equally quiet in game one but watch out for a big night from Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is hitting .714 in his career vs. Eovaldi including a home run and a double with 3 RBI. Kyle Tucker, who has struggled in the playoffs, is hitting .333 with a home run in his career vs. Eovaldi. Lastly, Houston should have Michael Brantley in at DH vs. Eovaldi and he has a home run and five RBI in his career against the veteran Rangers' righty. I expect the Astros' heavy hitters to lead the way this afternoon and help tie this series up.

Rating: 2 Units

While the regular season can't be used as a full barometer of things to come, the Astros did take nine of the 13 meetings between the two teams this season. More importantly, the Astros closed with wins in seven of their final eight games against the Rangers. Houston pounded out a whopping 30 home runs against the Rangers in the 13 games including 25 in the last seven meetings. The Astros' power surge has continued in the playoffs with 10 home runs in the four-game series with Minnesota. The addition of former MVP Abreu seemed to be a modest one for much of the season but he has caught fire in the postseason with three home runs in his last two games and should be chomping at the bit to face the left-handed Montgomery. The Rangers will not be lacking in offense either, however, as they rank first in the playoffs with six runs per game after finishing third overall during the regular season. The big edge for Houston in this game and this series is in the bullpen. While Texas has the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the playoffs, they have not been put into too many high-leverage situations thus far and the team has relied on manager Bochy to cobble together pitchers in the late innings. During the regular season, that was very apparent with Texas' bullpen ranking 24th in ERA in baseball. The Astros bullpen, while lacking any left-handed arms, is well constructed and roles are well defined. Houston finished the regular season with the league's sixth-best bullpen ERA and it was their bullpen that carried them to the World Series last season. Closer Ryan Pressley is a perfect 13-of-13 in save chances in the postseason in his career. Verlander can and will at least match Montgomery in innings in the opener and hand the ball over to a more capable bullpen.

Rating: 2 Units

Houston has been reliable in big spots, while Minnesota is finally feeling like a winner again. That doesn't work in the Twins' favor today, even at home. I'm betting on the Astros to win straight-up! A lot has been made about Houston's game-four starter, but not enough has been said about Ryan's inexperience and lack of success post-All-Star weekend. The young right-hander appeared to be an ace earlier this season but was a shell of himself in the second half. He was roughed up in his last start and didn't pitch in the Twins' Wild Card round despite being next up in the rotation. I doubt that boosted his ego — now he gets to face the defending champs in a much more important game. If Houston's starter lasts five or six innings, that will be a victory. At the end of the day, though, the onus is on the Astros' lineup to come up clutch. Early run production will be crucial, as well. The same pieces are in place that led this ballclub to a World Series title in 2022 — now it's time to do it again.

Rating: 2 Units

Game one was a surprising result but this is a veteran Dodgers squad who won’t be rattled. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen was not able to contain the Dodgers this season. The veteran squandered five runs in 4.2 innings in the first meeting and six runs in 5.1 innings in the second one. The Dodgers bashed four home runs against him. Dodgers’ starter Bobby Miller shut down the Diamondbacks this season, conceding just four runs in 12 innings. The Dodgers won those games by 2-0 and 7-4 scores. Miller posted a solid 3.21 ERA in August and a 3.57 ERA in September. This is a must-win game for the Dodgers and I expect the veteran squad to come through with a convincing home win.

Rating: 2 Units

López continued to impress in the postseason after holding nine of his last 11 opponents to three or fewer runs. He's part of a Twins rotation that led the big leagues in Ks, and he had better walk numbers than his counterpart Valdez. He and the Minnesota bullpen possess the high-octane stuff that will make life difficult for Houston in game two. Valdez wasn't a reliable pitcher in the second half of the season, surrendering ten runs (nine earned) and eight walks in his last two outings. He gave up four-plus runs in nine of his last 16 appearances and walked two or more batters in 11 of those starts. The southpaw also gave up a career-high 19 home runs this year. That will be problematic against Minnesota (AL-leading 233 long balls).

Rating: 2 Units

The Orioles are in a tough spot here with Montgomery taking the hill for the Rangers today. Montgomery has been outstanding in his last five starts with an ERA under one in that span. He has also gone at least seven innings in four of those five starts. He will, however, face an Orioles team that now has their legs under them after Saturday's game. The Orioles have consistently bounced back this season after a loss. The Orioles have had only two losing streaks as long as four games all season. Also, the last time the Rangers faced Rodriguez, he was struggling and soon to be sent to the minor leagues. Since then, he has been a completely different pitcher and has been arguably the team's best pitcher down the stretch. His K/9 rate is over ten in his last five starts which will play well against a Rangers' lineup that has struck out 37 times in the last three games. The Orioles lineup, while struggling to produce runs in the opener, did earn five walks and worked the pitch count. The Rangers burned through six pitchers on Saturday and the Orioles will continue to try to work counts and get Montgomery out prior to the seventh. I like the Orioles' chances the second time around against the Rangers' bullpen.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a must-win game for Houston, as the Twins are confident and eager to get back home. Stealing a game at Minute Maid Park would be huge for a Minnesota team that fed off the Target Field crowd last series. With that said, I believe the Astros' experience will speak louder than the Twins' passion on Saturday. The acquisition of Verlander put Houston firmly back into the mix in the AL title race, and there's no reason to believe he'll let his team down. The Twins led the AL in home runs, but their offense relies too heavily on the long ball. They also struck out more than any team in baseball this year. Verlander didn't give up a homer in his last three starts after surrendering seven in his first three outings of September. He'll keep the Twins in the yard on Saturday, giving the Astros the quality start they need to win. Minnesota's pitching staff led the league in strikeouts, but Houston's lineup struck out in just 19.8 percent of its ABs this season, the lowest of any team in the postseason. The 'Stros make consistent contact, too, boasting the fifth-lowest whiff rate during the regular season. Ober fanned 17 batters in his last two starts, but those outings were against Oakland and Colorado. The playoff-ready Astros won't make it easy for him or any other Twins pitcher, working their at-bats until they score.

Rating: 2 Units

Late Friday evening, the Rangers named left-hander Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15 ERA) their Game 1 starter, while right-hander Kyle Bradish (12-7, 2.83 ERA) will go for Baltimore. Bradish, 27, has been on extended roll. He went 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA in 11 starts during August and September, striking out 73 batters while walking 17 in 64 2/3 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .178 batting average. Including a brief two-inning effort on Sunday, he has thrown 16 consecutive scoreless innings in his past three starts. Orioles pitchers finished fifth in the American League with a 3.89 ERA while the Rangers were 10th at 4.28. Baltimore will be without closer Felix Bautista but still should have the edge in the bullpen, where its relievers pitched to a 3.55 ERA while Texas finished at 4.77.

Rating: 2 Units

The Phillies' recent playoff experience showed out in game one as they scored four times in the game despite a lack of power against five different Marlins pitchers. Meanwhile, the Marlins continued their postseason playoff run drought. They have now scored just one run in the team's last three postseason games. The Phillies should also have the advantage in game two with the playoff-savvy Nola taking on Marlins' lefty Garrett. Garrett pitched well down the stretch but posted a 5.40 ERA against the Phillies this year and will be pitching in front of a rabid Philadelphia crowd on Wednesday night. While Nola has not been at his best against the Marlins this season, he is not uncomfortable pitching on a big stage after making five postseason starts last season for the Phillies. He started twice in front of the home crowd last postseason and has a 2.70 ERA. The Marlins poured through five pitchers in game one thanks to Luzardo's exit after four innings. If Garrett falters early, the Marlins' bullpen will have trouble duplicating Tuesday night's performance. 

Rating: 2 Units

Gray has been one of the game's best starters in 2023, holding 21 of his 32 opponents to two or fewer runs. He was 11th in the AL in innings pitched and 13th in strikeouts, too. With a couple of months of momentum on his side, I'm betting on Gray to turn in a quality start on Wednesday at home (2.67 ERA in 17 starts at Target Field). Berríos has been less effective, giving up eight runs in his last two starts and four-plus runs in five of his last ten outings. The Twins scored 4.8 runs per game at home in 2023, slashing .249 BA/.332 OBP/.448 SLG/.780 OPS in 81 games at Target Field. They have been on a tear since the All-Star break, too (.257 BA/.346 OBP/.462 SLG/.808 OPS in 71 games).

Rating: 2 Units

Eflin gets a chance to live up to the big money deal he signed in the offseason as one of the lone remaining starters standing in the Rays’ rotation. He pitched well in the postseason for the Phillies a season ago and has the edge of the Rangers’ hitters not being overly familiar with his stuff. Eovaldi was a stabilizing force for the Rangers this season but he came apart down the stretch. After missing six-plus weeks and returning on September 5, he went just 1-2 with a 9.30 ERA with 13 walks and 21 strikeouts while allowing seven homers in 20.1 innings in six outings. Opposing hitters lit him up to the tune of a .313/.418/.602 slash line in that stretch. Facing a Tampa Bay lineup that blasted 233 homers this season is going to be an uphill task. Give the advantage to Tampa Bay as they earn the victory here.

Rating: 2 Units

In a matchup of two very familiar foes, I'm going with the home team in game one. On the season, the Marlins won the season series 7-6 over the Phillies but the Phillies did win four of the last seven meetings. Opposing lefties have an ERA of nearly five and a half at Citizens Bank Park this season, which is the task facing Marlins' lefty Luzardo. He was 2-0 on the season against the Phillies but was far from dominant in his two wins. Luzardo has also been a much better pitcher at home than on the road this season. Phillies' starter Wheeler was stellar down the stretch with a 3-0 record in his last five starts. Wheeler is also the more experienced big-game pitcher in this game after being one of the key pitchers in the Phillies' march to the World Series last year. Wheeler had an ERA of 2.78 in the 2022 postseason. The Phillies' key to victory will be with the long ball and they are especially dangerous at home in that department.

Rating: 2 Units

The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt as they had to use Kelly and Gallen on the weekend. This is not ideal considering Pfaadt did not have success. The rookie posted a 4.32 ERA in September and issued a poor 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 96 innings on the season. The Brewers have been outstanding at home, winning eight consecutive home series. Corbin Burnes is rested and has allowed just four runs in his last 22 innings pitched. He has registered a solid 3.77 career ERA against the Diamondbacks. Woodruff has dominated in his brief work in the postseason, allowing just two runs in 15 career innings. I don’t expect this game to go down to the late innings but if it does, the Brewers have the stronger pen.

Rating: 2 Units

The stars seem to be perfectly aligned for the Tigers today. They need the win to jump three spots in the standings from last season and finish in second place. They also send out Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound this season and the lefty has dominated the Guardians this season. He is perfect in three starts against them, all quality starts, and his ERA is under one in those three turns. Finally, and most importantly, the Tigers and their fans send off future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera in the final game of his illustrious career. Expect the game to be emotional and all about the veteran stars. The Guardians will step back and let the well-respected Cabrera have his moment and will fall to the Tigers to close out a disappointing season.

Rating: 2 Units

Late on Saturday night, the Rangers watched the Astros win 1-0 over the Diamondbacks to remain alive for the AL West crown. The Rangers now have a huge game to play today to try and avoid having to play in the wildcard round this week. Dunning will be facing a Mariners' lineup that certainly will not have the same fire as they would have if the playoffs were on the line and one that may very well likely rest several players. The Rangers will be playing all their starters on Sunday to clinch the division. Seattle starter Kirby has been a bit up and down during the stretch and may also be given a much shorter hook here with the season over for the Mariners. I expect the Rangers to be the more motivated team, even if the division title isn't up for grabs.

Rating: 2 Units

Javier, the fourth-year pro held four of his five September opponents to three or fewer earned runs and fanned 11 batters two starts ago vs. Baltimore. He's going to be an important arm in the Houston rotation this postseason. He should be able to tame a D-Backs lineup that slashed just .238 BA/.315 OBP/.374 SLG/.688 OPS in September.

Rating: 2 Units

Kansas City's offense putting up more than five runs per game this month already gives them an advantage at the plate on Saturday. Then factor in their better play at home all season (.259/.322/.419 slash line), and they should tee off. Clarke Schmidt already gave up three runs against them in Yankee Stadium. He brings a 5.27 road ERA and 5.33 ERA in his last five starts to Kansas City with him. Expect the Royals to jump ahead early. Pitching has been a concern for Kansas City, but this year's Yankees aren't threatening at the plate at all. New York is scoring fewer than four runs per game in September and has been among the league's lowest-scoring teams all season. Home runs are their great equalizer, but Kauffman Stadium's dimensions should neutralize that. This game will be a Royals win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Marlins are trying to hang on to the final Wildcard spot. They won three of their previous four games against the Pirates this season. They have scored 17 runs in their last four games. They hit the ball well against right-handers and Priester has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 10 runs in his last three starts. He gave up 20 runs in his last four home starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Marlins in this game. The Pirates offensive struggles will continue in this game because they are one of the worst hitting teams in the league and Miami’s pitching has been very good in recent games, with the team holding four of their last five opponents under four runs. They gave up 10 runs in four games against the Pirates this season and will keep their offense in check. Go with Miami to cover the money line.

Rating: 2 Units

This should be an interesting matchup today between the Jays and Rays. With a likely playoff matchup looming, neither team will likely look to play their starters the full game. Both starting pitchers are also likely to be pitching out of the bullpen in the wildcard round with neither in the top-three of their team's rotations. I expect both pitchers to be gone by the end of the fourth inning at the latest as each team protects their pitching staff. The rest of the game should be played by recent call-ups that will not be a part of the playoff roster. I like the home team Jays to be slightly more motivated after going through a bit of a tough stretch in recent games.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are heading to an offseason full of questions as they are missing the postseason. That’s an uncommon thing for the Yankees in recent history but their moves to bolster things failed to deliver. Rodon is a prime example of what fell apart for the franchise as he missed the first three months of the season and never got up to speed after that. Of course, facing a Royals team that is minus arguably their top two starting pitchers in Brady Singer and Brad Keller makes things more difficult for the hosts. The Royals have struggled offensively and Rodon should be able to finish the season on a positive note with a strong outing here. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Padres, who average 4.66 runs per game, should drive in runs at will with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and the rest of the lineup making contact and powering the ball to easily drive in runs. The Padres should also limit a White Sox lineup that averages only 4.01 runs per game with Nick Martinez tossing multiple scoreless innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with the lead. The Padres should win the game with a strong performance on the road.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rangers have dominated right-handed pitchers in the last ten days, notching a .895 OPS and 139 wRC+ across 261 plate appearances. Last Saturday, they scored two runs off Logan Gilbert in that 2-0 home win against Seattle. On the other side, the Mariners have registered a .672 OPS and 93 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers over the last ten days (133 plate appearances). They’ve owned the Mariners as of late. Jordan Montgomery has been outstanding over his previous three starts including seven scoreless innings against Seattle, and the Rangers ‘pen has been surprisingly good in the last ten days (3.67 ERA and 2.71 FIP). 

Rating: 2 Units

It’s hard to go with a Cardinals team playing with a depleted lineup. Several key players are out including Arenado, Contreras, and Gorman. They have dropped five of their last seven games. The Brewers are looking strong heading into the postseason, winning four of their last five series. Cards’ starter Dakota Hudson is struggling, producing a poor 5.93 ERA in his five outings in September. Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes continues to shut down the opposition, allowing just four runs in his last three outings spanning 18 innings. Burnes has a stifling 2.97 ERA in 75 innings in his career against the rivals.

Rating: 2 Units

Minnesota's ace, Sonny Gray, will try to put a bow on a sensational 2023 season against MLB's worst offense. Gray will take his 2.66 home ERA against his former team that's averaging fewer than four runs per game. The Twins shouldn't feel threatened by Oakland's offense at all today. The Twins have been mashing the ball, which is why they're the only team averaging over six runs per game this month. Luis Medina is the A's starter, and he has a 6.60 ERA on the road. The Oakland bullpen is MLB's worst. Minnesota should clobber plenty of baseballs in this one. It shouldn't be close.

Rating: 2 Units

The Texas Rangers are close to a playoff spot and every game is huge the rest of the way. The Rangers are in a groove. The Angels have been abysmal and have a poor lineup due to the injuries to Trout and Ohtani. They have lost eight of their last ten games. Rangers’ starter Dane Dunning has only conceded four runs in his last 10 innings pitched. He has contained the Angels, limiting them to only three earned runs in 10 innings this season. Angels' pitcher Griffin Canning struggles against the Rangers, allowing 20 runs in 24 career innings against the rivals. 

Rating: 2 Units

Too much at stake here for Baltimore not to lean their way in this matchup. They have a chance to rest some key players over the weekend and to limit the rest of their starters to a pitch count to keep them fresh but not tax them as they miss nearly a week while getting a well-deserved bye in the first round of the playoffs. Baltimore's Rodriguez has looked like a potential future ace with his lively arm and command coming together down the stretch. He has an ERA under two over his last five starts while slightly upping his K/9 rate. The Nats Corbin has bounced back from an 18-loss season a year ago with a solid season but he still gives up way too many hits per start and that plays right into the Orioles small-ball style of play. The Orioles will move runners along, work the count, and wear down Corbin to get to the Nats' weak bullpen. I don't expect the Orioles to let up here with a chance to possibly clinch the division.

Rating: 2 Units

The Reds have likely run out of steam in terms of earning a wildcard spot but they are certainly in line to earn a winning season in 2023. This will be lefty Abbott's final start of the 2023 season and he will look to go out on a high note after coming out of the gates on fire before cooling off. The Guardians will counter with Bieber who returned from the IL and pitched five innings in his return last week. Bieber has had a difficult season as he transitions from a power pitcher to more of a finesse pitcher who needs to survive with more balls being put in play. Abbott is also 5-1 on the road this season for Cincinnati. The Reds come into this game as the more motivated team and should be able to pull out a win over the Guardians with what is an excellent money line.

Rating: 2 Units

The White Sox have been awful at the plate of late, posting a .671 OPS and 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in the last ten days. On the other side, the Diamondbacks have registered a .744 OPS and 102 wRC+ versus the righties in that span. The Diamondbacks bullpen has done a tremendous job over the last ten days, posting a microscopic 0.65 ERA to go with a 3.80 FIP. The White Sox’s bullpen has recorded a hideous 9.61 ERA and 8.34 FIP during that span. 

Rating: 2 Units

As well as King has pitched since taking on a starter's role, he is still limited in the number of innings he can throw. The Blue Jays' Gausman, however, will have such issues in what might be his last start of the season if all things go right for the Jays. I expect Gausman to once again get deep into the game against a Yankees team that he is averaging just under seven innings per start in his previous three appearances. Gausman is 2-0 against the Yankees and has done an excellent job at keeping the ball out of play with 37 strikeouts in nearly 21 innings pitched. The Yankees' lineup has scored two runs or less in four of their last six games. I don't expect too many contested at-bats from a team already looking ahead to a long offseason. The Jays lineup will do their best to work the pitch count of King to get to the Yankees bullpen. The Jays have much more to play for on Tuesday night and should win this one relatively easily.

Rating: 2 Units

Both teams are holding on to fading playoff hopes as they try to make a late push to get back into the playoff picture. With that said, the Padres had won eight straight before losing Saturday night while the Giants have been floundering for the last six or seven weeks. Snell is the presumptive NL Cy Young winner despite his major league-leading walk total as he does a solid job keeping his team in games. Webb has been victimized by a lack of run support in his starts this season and the Giants have struggled to put runs on the board at home. It’s tough to have faith in the home team given their struggles of late. Take the Padres on the road in this contest as they find a way to prevail and keep their faint hopes alive for another day.

Rating: 2 Units

The Angels sport a 32-43 run line record at home and a 19-27 run line division record this season. Texas hits .273 BA/.349 OBP/.451 SLG/.801 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season. Sandoval was roughed up by the Rangers last month and is 1-3 in seven career appearances against them. They're in the thick of a competitive division title hunt and will roll to a road victory over the hapless Angels. Gray contained the LA offense in a seven-inning gem last month and should shine again today. The veteran righty has held four of his last five opponents to three runs and has a lower road ERA than at home this year. The Angels are without several key cogs and will be uncompetitive in this series.