There are a lot of factors playing into this selection. First and foremost the weather, and its impact on each team. There is a snowstorm in Baltimore today, which won't impact the play tomorrow, but what lies in its wake will. Game time temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s. Moreover, the wind will be sustained between 15-20 MPH and gusting into the 30s.The Houston offense does not run the ball well, and the Baltimore defense excels vs. the run. Houston predicates a lot of what they do on the deep threat, but the weather, and a strong Baltimore pass defense is going to negate that. Baltimore runs the ball as well as any team in the league, and going against a soft Houston run defense, their offense is made for games like this. An abstract study on NFL games proved that a wind of 13 MPH or more sustained has more of a negative impact on the visiting team, especially if they are a dome team. The actual total in these windy conditions drop by just 2.05 ppg from the same teams playing in a dome, but the actual impact is 6.15ppg, and thus the under converts 65% of all games. Not much more needs to be said. Make the play on the under.

This is going to be a tough physical game. I get the feeling the Eagles are hiding an injury to Jalen Hurts. If not then for some reason he just fell off a cliff. His stats are hard to hide. Last year he threw 25 TDs and 6 INTs. This season 23 TDs and 15 INTs. He is running the ball at fewer than 4 yards per carry. His numbers are ugly. Tampa Bay has problems of their own. Baker Mayfield sat out of practice Thursday. He has compound injuries. He is dealing with a bad ankle, as well as injured ribs. His status is still up in the air, but my best guess he will play at some form below what he has done on the season. I think this game is going to be ugly, and the best bet is under the total.

The Detroit Lions have won just 1 playoff game in 66 years (1992). They are a tough team to play, but lost their TE last game to injury and he was an integral part of the offense. There are plenty of weapons left as the Lions still have 3 more receivers with 10 or more TDs. Will it be enough? The Rams arguably have been the best team in the NFL in the last 8 games at 7-1. The loss was in OT at Baltimore, the best team in the AFC. The Rams offense over their last 7 games is averaging 30ppg. It averaged 19.8ppg prior to that. The Lions put up 30+ points 9 times, and this game looks to me like the highest scoring game of the weekend. The Rams have played 6 of their last 7 to the over, with the only miss by 1/2 point. The Lions are 12-5 to the over at home with an average points scored in those games og 55.5ppg. Make the play over the total.

The Houston Texans made a giant leap forward making the playoffs. Houston in their previous 3 seasons managed a total of 11 wins, while posting 10 this season. A lot of that had to do with rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who had one of the best rookie seasons ever. He will face a Cleveland defense that is one of the best in the league, but with that being said the Browns defense did allow 20+ points in 11 of their games. There is one huge thing that stands out with this Browns defense. The Browns played 12 games on grass this season and allowed just 17.6ppg. It was an entirely different story when they played on artificial turf, where in their 5 games they allowed 30.2ppg, and also scored 25.6ppg. All 5 games went well over the total by an average of 16.7ppg. Joe Flacco has elevated the Browns offense as in his 5 starts they have averaged 28.8ppg. Games tend to average more points played on turf and indoors, as the elements don't come into play, or a retractable roof is open when the elements don't come into play. Make the play over the total.

Washington is allowing better than 40ppg in their last 3, and that make the over appear very attractive. However, a team that has allowed 115 or more points in their last 3 games are 53-28 to the under. Coach McVay is also 48-32 to the under when his team is posted as a favorite, and Washington is 97-71 to the under as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Make the play under the total.

This would normally be a trap game for Kansas City, but off of 2 losses they will show up today, and I think the Patriots will not find the end-zone in this game, and their defense will limit a Kansas City offense that is not nearly as good as we have seen in recent years. Backed by a situation that is 109-76 I will make the play under the total.

I wrote a lot about the advantages in this game, and it also fits a total situation that is 40-9-3 to the under. Make the play under the total.

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great situation for this game to go over the total. The Eagles are 41-9 ATS to the over following a game where they scored fewer than 23 points as a dog. Make the play over the total.

One thing that history shows is when an NFL team has played at least 4 straight games that have gone under the total, the odds-makers compensate the total, and quite often the adjustment ahead of the anticipated public jumping on the bandwagon, turns the line in favor of the other direction which is over the total, especially when it is a below average total. A team off 4 straight games playing under the total that has a season long scoring margin of -4 points or more (Denver), and playing to a low total from 34 to 41 are 71-39-2 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The New England Patriots certainly have offensive issues as they have averaged 14.1ppg on the season. The Patriots have scored 17 or fewer points in 8 of their last 9 games, so they have been consistently bad. The Giants put up 31 points last week, and that number is very deceiving. The Giants were held to 292 total yards and did their scoring because the Washington Commanders turned the ball over 6 times. The Giants in their previous 8 games averaged fewer than 11ppg. Coach Belichick has seen his team play 10-0 ATS to the under when failing to cover in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Giants over the past 3 seasons are 12-1 ATS to the under as a home dog. The Giants have a long history of playing under vs. a team with a losing record as they are 106-78 ATS to the under. I like the under in this one.

The Washington Commanders turned sellers and traded their bookend defensive ends Chase Young, and Montez Sweat. They also lost safety Darrick Forrest in week 5. This defense is already suspect having allowed 33 or more points 5 times this season already. New England scored 52 points over a 5 week period, but has scored 46 in their last 2. I think Washington lost most of their talent on the defensive end, and I can see significant points here. Rivera's teams have played over to a 30-16 ATS mark on turf, and Washington is 46-28 ATS to the over after scoring 30 or more points their last game. Make the play on the OVER.

This game fits a long term situation that has resulted in a 217-143-4 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

The Chicago Bears are just 1-5 on the season, and about the only good part of that is if the draft was today they would have the first and second picks in the draft. That won't help their offense today. The Bears lost QB Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent will get the start. Chicago has another problem. They are going to want to run more, but Justin Fields was the reason they ran the ball above average, which won't be the case today. The Vegas offense has struggled along with QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has thrown just 7 TD passes with 8 INT's on the season. Las Vegas has averaged just 16ppg in his 5 starts. The Raiders offense is full of check downs and have trouble getting the ball downfield leaving behind a frustrated Davante Adams. This game is supported by a 79-41 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.

The New York Giants had a really good season last year, but everything seemed to work out in their favor. The opposite has been true this season. The Giants enter Sunday Night vs. the Bills with an offense that has scored 16 or fewer points in all 4 losses. The Giants have 18 players on the injury report including QB Daniel Jones who has been ruled out. Jones has been the offense for the Giants scrambling for his life. Tyrod Taylor will get the start for New York. The Buffalo offense is going to have to do all the heavy lifting on the scoreboard, but I doubt the motivation will be there in a lopsided game. The Giants have surrendered 30 sacks already which is the most by any team in the NFL through 5 games ever! This game fits a total situation that is 107-62 ATS, and I agree. Make the play under the total.

As you can see from my side write up I am high on both offenses match ups in this game as well as a 189-122 ATS total situation. Make the play over the total.

This is strictly a turnover play that works against the Bears. The situation is exclusive to the Bears and is a total situation that is 33-2 ATS. Make the play UNDER the total.

This game fits a situation that is 41-100 ATS but there are double posting in some stances. Overall when a home team is in this situation the total has gone 25-55-5 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 41-100 ATS but there are double posting in some stances. Overall when a home team is in this situation the total has gone 25-55-5 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has gone over the total to a record of 126-85 ATS and the play is on the OVER.

This game total fits a situation that has gone 74-41 ATS and the play is on the OVER.

Cincinnati heads to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. The weather is not going to be ideal for passing downfield. The temperature will be in the low 20s to start the game and down to 15-18 by the end of the game, and the windchill will be hovering around 0, with wind gusts in the 20s. The big question will be the mobility of Patrick Mahomes as he deals with a high ankle sprain sustained last week. That is the type of injury that takes more than a week to heal, so I will assume Mahomes is less than 100%. The Bengals offensive line is in shambles but did hold up against Buffalo, and I think Kansas City is going to try and test it with pressure. This has the look of more running than one would think and the Chiefs have run for 138 yards or more in each of the last 3 vs Kansas City, and with a less than healthy Mahomes, they may run even more. Almost all bets I see from questionable handicappers are on the over. I am in the other camp and will make the play on the under.

The San Francisco 49ers will head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. It should be ideal weather conditions with a high of 51 degrees and light winds, and just a slight chance for a shower or two. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy has played just a couple games on the road, and both opponents were rather weak. He will be facing the best defense he has in his brief career, one that has sacked the QB 70 times on the season. Jalen Hurts is going to be facing a tough defense in San Francisco, and both defenses will have the advantage when they are on the field. I think this is going to be a game of field position, and TD's are going to hard to come by. This game also fits a total situation that is 38-16 ATS. I will make the play under the total.

The 49ers played one team this season that has the offensive weapons that Dallas does, and that was against Kansas City. They proceeded to allow 44 points in that game. The Niners have averaged over 30ppg since Brock Purdy became the QB. I can see this game getting into the 50s. A team playing to a total of 42 to 49.5 and off of 2 consecutive games played under the total, and both teams have a season to date scoring margin of 7 points or more in the playoffs are 11-0 ATS to the over since 2007! Make the play on the over.

Since the start of the 2019 season the Chiefs have played 7 home playoff games, where they have averaged 36ppg. These games have averaged 62ppg by both teams. The 2 games they were favored by more than 8 points they averaged 46.5ppg. More importantly, the Chiefs fit a strong situation that has been 22-2 ATS in the playoffs. The play is over the total.

The Baltimore Ravens will once again give it a go without Lamar Jackson. The decision on QB for Baltimore is still a mystery. Tyler Huntley is said to be a game time decision, and he hasn't exactly moved the offense even when he was healthy. If he can't go then Anthony Brown will make his second straight start. Baltimore is averaging 12.5ppg in their last 5 games. The Ravens do have their defensive swagger on. Through 8 weeks the Ravens were allowing 22.9ppg but since then have allowed 14.7ppg from week 9 out. They have held the Bengal offense to 22ppg in the 2 meetings. The Ravens only true chance of winning this game is going to play their best defensive game of the season because the offense is just horrible without Jackson. Make the play under the total.

It has been raining all week in the Bay Area. The field has likely been covered, but heavy rain is forecast during the game. Additionally a sustained wind of 20MPH with gusts over 30 are going to make passing and kicking a challenge. I like the under in this one.

This game fits a last game of the season total situation which is 78-31 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a last game of the season total situation which is 78-31 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a last game of the season total situation which is 78-31 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Raiders have given up on Derek Carr, and apparently will replace a lot of starters in this game and looking ahead to 2023-24. Can't see them moving the ball much here, and these teams fit into a strong 166-108 ATS situation. Make the play under the total.

This game fits my strongest total situation which is 113-48 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game will be determined in large part on the weather. The game time temperature will be around 5 degrees, with a forecast high of 10. The wins will be gusting upward to 35 MPH, and the wind chill will be -20 or lower at times. This will likely be a top 10 worst weather game in NFL history in terms of wind and cold that both alter scoring negatively. Make the play on the under.

The Atlanta Falcons are taking a look at rookie QB Desmond Ridder. Ridder will get the start, and I would expect the Atlanta offense to struggle, throw safe passes, and do a lot of running. New Orleans is getting completely healthy on defense, and I expect them to play more up to expectations. The NFC South has a long-term history of low scoring division games as 54.7% of them have played under. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 77-46 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits in a rather strong 106-61 ATS situation, and the play is under the total.

Dallas is active in a situation that is 38-7 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Indianapolis Colts fired head coach Frank Reich after the Colts generated just 121 total yards on 51 plays. It was the lowest yards per play generated by any team in the NFL this year. The Colts offense has generated just 9.7ppg in the last 3. New Head Coach Jeff Saturday who will become the first NFL head coach ever that has never coached at the pro or college level. Worse than that he hasn't been with the Colts all season. The Colts are left with a staff where no coach has ever called plays, so a bad offense may be worse. Defensively the Colts allowed New England 26 points, but the Pat's scored a defensive TD, and also scored after a blocked punt game New England a short field TD. New England generated just 203 total yards, so the 26 points was very misleading. Vegas is averaging 10ppg in their last 2 games on an average of 252 total yards per game, and has struggled offensively themselves. Derek Carr has numbers well short of last season, and the Colts can defend very well. I don't see a lot of points being scored in this game, and the Raiders are going to have to score big to get this over, and I don't see it in this match up. Make the play under the total.

The Seattle Seahawks after trading Russell Wilson, were supposed to be in a steep rebuild. That was until Geno Smith took charge of the offense, and has made this Seattle team a bonafide playoff contender. Seattle is 5-3 on the season and Smith has been spectacular. He enters this game with 19 TD passes to just 4 INTs with a passer rating of 103.2. Seattle is averaging 26.2ppg. Arizona is a disappointing 3-5. The Cardinal's defense is allowing 6 yards per play so the Seattle offense should be putting up a lot of points. The Seattle defense is allowing almost 6 yards per play, and Arizona should have no trouble moving the chains. The last 5 seasons has seen a team that is playing to a total of 49.5 or higher and is off a home win of 10 points or more that wins 60-75% of its games has played over the total to a 26-7 ATS mark. Make the play over the total.

This game fits my 2nd strongest total situation that has been 238-157 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 84-38 ATS and the play is over the total.

The New England Patriots seem to get into a mud sling every week, with sloppy play on both sides. Through 8 games the Patriot's games have seen 32 turnovers, 16 by each side. Indianapolis came into this season thinking they could hand off to Johnathon Taylor and solve their offensive issues. Taylor through 8 games has not topped 80 yards in any of them. Indianapolis has played 7 of their 8 games under the total, with no team in those games topping 24. The Colts have scored more thn 20 points just 1 time all season. This game fits a situatiaon that is 139-94 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a toatl situation that is 106-67 ATS. The play is on the over.

Atlanta is a surprising 3-3 on the season, while Cincinnati is a disappointing 3-3. This is a good match up for both offenses. The Falcons are limiting the number of passes that Marcus Mariota throws as he has not thrown more than 20 times in any game this season. The Falcons are running the ball as well as any team with 150+ yards in 5 of their 6 contests. The Bengals have become vulnerable to the running game when D.J. Reader went down with an injury (5.6 yards a carry). Burrow led Cincinnati to 30 points last week vs New Orleans and the Falcons are dead last in the league getting pressure. This game also fits a situation that is 87-41 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Detroit Lions games have been exciting to watch. Their games have averaged 62ppg. Dak Prescott will make his return at QB for Dallas and he obviously has a favorable match up. The Cowboy's throw the ball a lot with Prescott so things will certainly open up against the soft Detroit pass defense. If for some reason Prescott isn't completely healthy and clicking, the Lions run defense is the worst in the league. Dallas is one of the top teams in getting pressure, but Goff has been protected by a strong offensive line that ranks 3rd in allowing the least pressure. The game sets up as another high scoring affair for the Lions, who also fit in a situation that is 54-18 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

This game fits one of my strongest total situations that is 226-118 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 38-9 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 107-56 ATS. The play is under the total.

This game fits a total situation hat is 77-36 ATS and the play is on the under.

The New England Patriots took a blow when Mac Jones went down with a shoulder injury. I think back to last year when Bill Belichick took his team to Buffalo and played the game in high winds. His game plan was to run the ball on every down, and the Pats ended up throwing 3 passes in the game for an upset win in Buffalo. Maybe the strategy won't be as extreme here, but he knows he is facing a future HOF QB in Aaron Rodgers, and he is likely going to take the air out of the ball and run often. Green Bay is considered an offensive power with Rodgers but with no true go to guy the Packers offense has struggled to 16ppg. I see a defensive struggle in this one and will make the play under the total.

This game fits one of my strongest NFL total situations. This game applies to a total situation that is 68-16 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

Both Denver and San Francisco have played 2 games under the total. They have both showed some strong defense and at the same time neither offense has looked very impressive. Their games have combined to average about 40 total points. This game features Denver at home and early in the season. Looking at all Denver home games through week3 the over covers 61.1% of all games. I think a good part of that is defenses are in full game shape early in the season and the high altitude makes that worse. I expect a lot more offense in this one. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that is 172-117 ATS to the under, and I like the fact that both teams have their season on the line which usually means intense battles at the line of scrimmage. Make the play under the total.

The Minnesota Vikings shocked the Green Bay Packers last week holding them to 7 points. They generated 23 points in that game, but generated close to 400 yards of offensive, indicative of more points. Philadelphia was in a shootout with the Lions where they survived 38-35. I think we are heading for another shootout here. The Vikings faced a team down 3 offensive linemen, and their 3 top receivers from a year ago. It won`t be so easy this week. Especially with a Monday Night week 2 situation that is 37-9 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over in this one.

Last week the Detroit Lions put up 35 points on the Philadelphia Eagles. It wasn't enough to win as they allowed 38, and the game saw 850 total yards. Washington also over-achieved their expected offense, and under-performed on defense. We have a pair of teams here that are heading for another 50+ point combined score. Bigger than all that is a huge 113-53 ATS total situation that has gone decisively to the over. Make the play over the total.

I think these teams both have weapons but the Dolphins defense is going to be one of the top in the league. They were impressive last week allowing New England just 271 total yards, 7 points, and 3 turnovers. Baltimore allowed just 9 points to the Jets. Many will look at the 295 yards passing and say the Ravens are in trouble, but those yards took 59 pass attempts to create, or just 5 ypa, which is well below average. The Jets managed just 9 points. This game is setting up to be a lot more defensive than the total is suggesting, and it is supported by a 138-71 ATS situation to the under. Make the play under the total.

This game fits an opening week total situation that is 47-19 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

The Buffalo Bills are an alluring team after last week. Buffalo scored on every drive except a kneel down on their last possession. They played a perfect game with 7 straight Td drives, no punts, no turnovers. So they immediately become a sexy pick. The Chiefs may have something to say about that. Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City offense can score in bunches and quickly, and while the offense seems to be the talking point, the defense has better and healthier players, and looks completely different than it did in the beginning of the season. They have become a bonafide top 10 defense. While the Bills offense was perfect last week, the defense has been the strength of this team, and while it looks like both offenses are clicking right now, I think the defenses are going to have more to say than the offenses. This total is suggesting a shootout, and I don't think this game gets there. It fits a playoff total situation that is 39-17 ATS, and I will play under the total.

This pick is strictly system based. I don't typically play situations blindly unless they are very strong. This one is 87-38 ATS and the play is on the UNDER.

This game is based on one of my favorite and most reliable total situations. If you play on the under when a team enters the game off a road favorite loss of 10 points or more from game 4 on they are 175-110-6 ATS to the under. If their opponent is off a loss the under is 37-6-1 ATS to the under, including 28-3 ATS in the last 31 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

This game makes little sense. Both teams will be starting back up QB's and the Lions from week 2 on have yet to score 20 points in a game. Tim Boyle threw for 77 yards last week and 2 INT's, and now the Bears go with back up Andy Dalton (who is better than Fields by the way). The Bears defense is bad enough for even Boyle and the inept Lions to do something, and Dalton is an upgrade for the Bears offense. This game seems so obvious it should stay under the total, and I have seen games like this all too often where weird things happen and the expected quickly goes sideways. I like the over in this one.

Aaron Rodgers at QB tends to say offense, but the Packer offense has been sputtering all season. They rank in the bottom third of the league. The last 5 games has the Green Bay offense averaging just 19.2ppg. Meanwhile the Packers who have been labeled an offensive team during the Rodgers era have become one of the top defenses in the league. Green Bay has held its last 5 opponents to 11.6ppg.The Packers have in fact played 7 straight games to the under. No opponent in that stretch has scored more than 22 points against them. The Packers have not topped the 27 point mark in any of the 7 games either, and collectively the 7 Packer games have averaged just 35 total points. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 to the under holding 5 opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Packers are 4-1 to the under in its last 5 played in Minnesota with the average total score being fewer than 41 points. This game also fits a situation that is 50-15 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game features a pair of QB's having good seasons, as well as a pair of defenses that are suffering from a rash of injuries. The Chargers defense has allowed 31.8ppg over their last 4 and the Vikings will have up to as many as 5 key starters that may miss this game. The Chargers are ranked last in the NFL in success rate over their last 4 games. This game fits a situation that has been 87-46 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Rams are part of the top heavy NFC, where there is currently 5 teams beginning the week with a single loss. The Rams have taken the next step up on offense behind Matthew Stafford as they are averaging just about 30ppg. The Rams will have a huge mismatch in their favor going up against the very weak Texan's secondary. I expect the Rams to surpass their season scoring average of 30ppg in this contest. Houston is down to David Mills at QB and he has yet to win an NFL game. The Houston offense has been bogged down by 10 turnovers in its last 4 games, and 2.5 turnovers per contest is unsustainable, and I expect that number to go down, and the points to go up. The Rams defense has only been about average on the season, and they may not be on the field a lot in the 2nd half of this one, enhancing the Texan's chances of scoring. Make the play on the over in this one.

The Baltimore Ravens are known to like to put the ball on the ground especially with Lamar Jackson at QB. The running game should be met with little resistance, as the Chargers run stop unit is among the worst in the league. The usually reliable Baltimore defense is not up to standard, as it is allowing 6.5 yards per play and close to 400 yards a game. Justin Hebert has taken a very strong rookie season, and elevated it as he is beating last year's numbers to this point of the season. Things haven't gotten much better as they allowed over 500 yards last week to the Colts. This game should see a lot of scoring opportunities, make the play on the over.

Washington will once again go with QB Taylor Heinicke. Probably the best testiment to the Washington offensive line was the fact that Heinicke took 3 seconds on average to unload the ball, and did not get sacked a single time. Washington runs the ball at a top 10 rate, but the Saints own the 2nd best run stop unit in the NFL so the heart of the Washington offense is going into a very unfavorable match up. Winston is known for holding the ball too long, and will be with out 2 pieces in his offensive line, most notable starting center Erik McCoy. I like this game to play under the total.

The match up here should provide a lot more scoring opportunities than the posted total might otherwise indicate. The Atlanta offense has allowed less time for Matt Ryan to et rid of the ball, and that has led to running backs featured in the passing game, as Ryan needs to get the ball out quickly. The Falcons target running backs at the 2nd highest rate in the league and the Jets allow the 2nd most receiving yards to running backs in the league. That sets up the Atlanta offense for success in this contest. Jamison Crowder lifted the Jets offense last week in his first game. He was targeted 9 times, and has a favorable match up here vs Atlanta. This game will be played in London under very good scoring conditions. I think these match ups favor a game with more scoring than expected. Make the play over the total.

Seattle had a big halftime lead vs Tennessee last week, and let it slip away in the 2nd half in a 33-30 loss. The Titans went for over 500 yards on the Seahawks. Minnesota despite allowing a considerable amount of points has one of the top run defenses in the league, and they will be able to get pressure on Wilson. Cousin's has 6 starts vs Seattle and 5 of the games have played under, and the Minnesota defense has historically been much better at home, and this will be the home opener for the Vikings. Russell Wilson is 15-7 to the under when playing as a road favorite. I like the under in this one.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will wheel out Ben Roethlisberger at age 39 for another go. Big Ben is 39 now and he has lost his fastball. He also is at the point where he does not have the ability to escape and shake a rush anymore and is subject to injury. What complicates things is the Pittsburgh offensive line is below average, and the running game is non-existent. The Steelers finished at 82 yards a game last year on the ground, which was dead last in the NFL. Buffalo has exceeded their season wins total 4 straight years, but have no Super Bowl appearances to show for it. Josh Allen's numbers last year compared to past seasons were among the biggest jump of any player in recent memory. It will be hard for him to duplicate those numbers this year, especially in game 1 as the one thing Pittsburgh can do is play defense. I look for this game to plaay under the total.

There is a lot to unpack for this game. We have two QBs that may in the end go down to the top 2 all-time. I think for the KC offense it comes down to how much will it matter that their offensive line is down both of their starting tackles? I think for Tampa Bay it will come down to how Brady handles the blitz. The Bucs allowed 27 points in the 1st meeting, which is a win against this KC offense. The points however didn't tell the story. Tyreke Hill owned the game. Kansas City was up 17-0 early and was on their way to making it 24-0 when Mahomes suffered a strip-sack inside the 15. Hill had 202 receiving yards in the first quarter. Mahomes had 462 passing yards in the game. The 27 points were an anomaly, it could just as easily have been 45. Tampa Bay will get destroyed if they depend on the blitz to get pressure. They learned that lesson early and often in game 1. They blitzed 12 times in that game, 11 in their first half. They also have to be more relaxed on the line. Tampa Bay jumped offsides 4 times in the game, which is a Mahomes specialty, as he drew 26 flags this season, tops in the league, while Tampa Bay jumped 24 times on defense ranked second-worst in the league. Trying to play man defense is suicide against Mahomes, as they ran a man defense for 8 plays, and Mahomes was 6-8 for 113 yards and 2 TDs. The problem is, Travis Kelce is a zone destroyer and a blitz destroyer. He was targeted just 8 times in that game but had 8 catches. When KC lines up with 3 receivers on one side, and Kelcey alone on the other side, Mahomes keys on White. If White blitzes, the back comes out to Kelce's side, and it is 2 on 1 with Kelce carving free space in the middle. Tampa Bay ranks 25th against opponents TEs, and this guy is the best of them all. If KC goes 12 personnel with 2 TE's Mahomes averages 9.4 yards per attempt, and the TB defense on the season allows 8.1. The TB defense ranks 26th on first down, 16th on 2nd, 6th on 3rd, and 1st on 4th. They get better by the down. TB is going to get chances to score. KC allowed 954 yards to TEs this season. Gronk and Cameron Brate were targeted often and with success in the first meeting. Gronk had his best game of the year, and Brate had 4 grabs as well. TB likes to throw downfield and had 67 passing plays of 20+ yards, while the KC pass defense allowed 54. The TB offense is peaking right now. They ranked 11th in week's 1-9 but have since ranked #2. (ahead of KC). While Mahomes is good at drawing flags at the line of scrimmage, Brady and the Buc's receivers are good at drawing flags for DPI. The Bucs got 23 of those, an all-time record. Those 23 plays supplied 395 more yards of hidden offense. KC was flagged 15 times for defensive pass interference, and additionally, their defensive backs rank #30 in broken tackles allowed. I can see where two offenses that each have a plethora of star-studded weapons can find ways to score quickly, as each defense has vulnerabilities that each opponent has the weapons to expose. My play in this game is on OVER the total.

The Cleveland Browns and the Kansas City Chiefs match two teams big on offense and small on defense. They Browns have played 6-2 to the over when the total has been 48 points or higher and the 2 games that stayed under were against top tier defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They were otherwise 6-0 to the over. All 8 of the games showed an average of 64.38 points being scored. Kansas City has played just 6 games over the total this season, but all 6 of those games were to a total of 50-58. NFL playoff games don`t often have high totals, but when there has been a playoff game with a total of 56 or higher they have gone 5-1 to the over with the average points scored at 63.33. Andy Reid is now 7-1 to the over to a total of 55.5 or more. Make the play on the over.

These teams have battled 18 times since Russell Wilson was drafted by Seattle. Outside of a 4 game stretch of shootouts, the rest of the games have been tight, physical, brawls. Those 14 games have seen the under prevail 12-2. Just twice did these teams top 40 total points between them in the 14 games.The losing team has scored 17 or fewer points in 12 of the 14 games. The loser has also scored 10 points or fewer in half of the 14 games. The wildcard round has seen the under cash at a 51-34-1 rate, with a qualifying subset that fits this game of 28-6 and 15-1. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a late season division total situation that is 117-68 ATS. Make the play on the under.

While there is some low sample size situations on the under in this game, I have a couple large sample size situations (195-105 ATS, and 148-96 ATS) on the over, and the game caps out to 53.5 points scored. I always trust large samples over small ones, and with this game capping out at 53.5, make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 178-113 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 96-57 ATS and the play is on the over.

The Washington Redskins have not had a regular season with more than 10 wins since 1991. They are just 4-7 this year, but still in contention in the NFC East. The Steelers look to make it 11 straight wins to start the season. I like the fact that a lot of these teams success has been with effective blitzing, but this match up features a pair of QBs that get rid of the ball very quickly. The Redskins pass rush is probably the strength of the team. Roethlisberger leads the NFL in fastest time to throw, and that will negate the strength of this Washington team. Pittsburgh throws the ball 40 times a contest, and that is even higher recently. Alex Smith is getting rid of the ball very quickly as well, and that will frustrate the strength of the Pittsburgh defense, the defensive line. Pittsburgh is 84-56 ATS in their last 140 games as a home favorite of 7 or fewer points. I think the match up here figures to see the ball in the air a lot which tends to slow games down from a clock standpoint. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 236-169 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-105 ATS and the play is on the over.

I expected the New Orleans Saints to be one of the top defenses in the league this season. The Saints got off to their annual slow start, and injuries were mounting, and the defense was not performing up to expectations. That has all changed as New Orleans has become dominant on the defensive side of the ball allowing just 225 points in their last 4 games including just 9 vs Atlanta. The Saints offense without Drew Brees under center has become run heavy as they have attempted just 62 passes in the last 3 games, while running the ball110 times. This compares to the previous 3 games with Brees as QB passing 113 times. This certainly shortens the game with the clock in motion significantly more than previously. Todd Gurley has been ruled out for Atlanta, and Julio Jones looks like a game time decision, so the Atlanta offense is not nearly at full strength. Make the play on the under.

The Minnesota Vikings have had issues on defense all season long. They held an inept Bears offense to 19 points and very little ball movement. Their other most recent 5 games has seem them allow an average of over 400 yards per contest. The Minnesota offense should have no trouble moving the ball vs a depleted Jacksonville defense, as the powerful Viking offense coupled with a horrible defense has led them to 5 games over the total in their last 6. This is also supported by a situation that is 131-88 ATS. Make the play on the over.

No, write ups this week

Play is on the over

No, write ups this week

Play is on the over

This game fits a total situation that is 117-54 ATS, and the play is on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have seen their last 2 games played score a combined 39 points vs Houston and Vegas. Th Browns offense also struggled against a pair of elite defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, scoring a combined 13 points in the 2 games. I see a lot of hidden value in this game regarding the total. The last 2 games the Browns have played were both in impossible conditions with rain and extremely high winds. While their is rain in the forecast in Cleveland, the winds will not be a factor. Cleveland outside of 2 games vs elite defenses, and 2 extremely poor weather games has averaged 37.4ppg in their other 5 games. The Eagles should get their share here as they have scored 17-29 points in every game. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 195-108 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game features a weather alert with winds sustained at 30 MPH during the game, with gusts to 45 MPH. The market has adjusted but not enough. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a 103-47 ATS situation, and the play is on the over.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens are heated rivals, and this is a huge game as the winner will certain be viewed as a high rated Super Bowl caliber team. Division games are wars, and this one has always been an intense battle. Intensity is often a synonym for defense and that is what I expect here in this one. These games virtually never meet scoring expectations, and in the last 17 meetings in Baltimore just one game has seen both teams combine for more than 46 points (48), and it has been 12 years since these teams have gotten to even 43. The Steelers are 28-2 to the under on the road to a total of fewer than 49 points in their last 30. Make the play on the under.

The Kansas City Chiefs are arguably the best team in the NFL, and Pat Mahomes has been special. The Chiefs offense is still very potent, but it hasn't been quite as explosive as it was a year ago to this point. Kansas City closed last season in top form averaging 37ppg in their final 4 games, but have yet to top the 34 point mark this season. Doing so in Denver won't be easy. The Broncos always play tough defense, and currently have the longest streak in the NFL of not allowing more than 30 points, as they have gone 32 straight games without doing so. They have more impressive numbers at home allowing 2 of their lst 59 opponents to top the 30 point mark. Broncos offense is a disaster, and the KC defense is vastly underrated because the offense gets all the ink. This is all topped off by the fact that the game time temperature for Sunday is expected to be in the teens, with snow falling through the game. make the play on the under.

This is a system play that plays under the total on a division home favorite with a total of 44 or more if they are on regular rest and their opponents last opponent scored fewer than 32 points. This is 195-115 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points

It seems like a team playing on Monday Night just opens the playbook and let's it fly if they have a bye coming up the following week. Perhaps the defense doesn't focus as well looking forward the 2 weeks without another game. Whatever the reason or theory, when a team plays on Monday Night and has a bye the following week the over is 58-31-2 ATS. It helps if they are a good team as .600 or better teams in this situation are 31-13-2 ATS to the over. (14-2-1 ATS to the over since 2009). Make the play on the over.

If you are a Packers fan, it was good to see Aaron Rodgers have a big day. Many thought the Packers loading up on running backs, and not addressing the pass catchers Rodgers needs meant the Packers were going to turn to the running game. That certainly wasn't the case vs a depleted and weak Minnesota secondary, and likely we will see the same thing vs Detroit, who has a depleted secondary due to injuries.The Packers put up over 500 yards of offense, but also gave up 34 points themselves. Matthew Stafford completed 24-of-42 attempts for 297 yards, one touchdown, and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.Those are strong numbers against a pretty good Bears defense. I think Stafford can put up similar numbers against Green Bay, and the fast pace offense of the Bears was too much for the Lions. There was 7 points lost in that game as D"Andre Swift dropped a wide open pass in the end-zone that would have won the game for the Lions with just a few ticks on the clock. Make the play over the total.

DEEBO SAMUEL  MVP     +2500   (1/2 of 1 UNIT)
>>
>> I always shy away from the QB's in this game, as it is the logical choice and the value is usually not there. that typically means I am on a long shot. i don't just like to choose a long shot on a whim, but on value so I will make the case for Deebo Samuel of the 49ers here. First, the 49ers have barely passed the ball at all in the post-season so the value is enriched as Samuel will not be on most bettors radar. He is on mine. The Niners were not sure what they had in Samuel early in the season, and his use was limited. Through 9 weeks he had 22 receptions for just 227 yards, or just over 10 yards a catch. he had just 1 catch for 30+ yards, and scored 1 TD. He also had 5 rushing attempts for 37 yards. Then starting in week 10 the Niners started to realize he had something to add to their attack. from week 10 on he caught 35 passes for 575 yards, or 16.5 yds. per catch, a quantum leap. he had 4 catches for 30+ yards and added 3 TDs. Since week 13 the 49ers wanted him to get more touches and he ran the ball 9 times for 122 yards. he had 4 runs of 20+ yards, and 2 TDs. despite the 49ers pretty much running their way to the Super Bowl he caught more balls, for more yards than any other receiver. he also ran the ball 3 times for 49 yards. When I make an MVP choice, I like players that can impact a game multiple ways (running and receiving in this case). I think the 49ers have so much to look out for that Samuel could become an under the radar part of the game plan, as he has taken on an expanded role late in the season and has delivered.
> ************************************************************************************************************************************************
> The rest of my Super Bowl props are all based on FGs. I have more detailed information on this than anyone would ever expect. It is because I had the foresight to track everything in this area for every Super Bowl, and the data I didn't have I added as I got older. These are some extremely powerful props based on FGs. I only consider the last 45 years. I have done so because the goal posts were moved in 1974 to the back of the end-zone which changed things. Here we go:
>
> UNDER   3.5 MADE FGs (Both teams)   3.5   -120
>
> The last 45 Super Bowls have topped 3,5 just 14 of 45 years (31.1%) Huge value
> **************************************************************************************************************************************
> UNDER  4.5 MADE FGs (Both teams)  4.5   -240
>
> There have been 5 or more made FGs in just 3 of the last 45 Super Bowls (6.6%) EXTREME VALUE!
> ****************************************************************************************************************************************
> UNDER 5.5 MADE FGs (Both teams)  5.5   -650
>
> THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED  0-45!
> ****************************************************************************************************************************************
> LONGEST MADE FG  47.5 YARDS    UNDER   -130
>
> There has been just 6 Super Bowls with a FG longer than 47 yards.  HUGE VALUE!
> **************************************************************************************************************************************
> TOTAL COMBINED MADE FG YARDS (Both teams)  UNDER   122.5   -110
>
> Only 12 of 45 Super Bowls have topped this number (26.6%)  TREMENDOUS VALUE!
> ************************************************************************************************************************************
> BOTH TEAMS WILL RECORD A MADE FG OF 33 OR MORE YARDS?  NO   -110
> This has occurred in just 14 of 45 Super Bowls  (31.1%) HUGE VALUE
> **********************************************************************************************************************************
IMPORTANT NOTE**********

When betting money line odds please remained disciplined!  For example on the prop that is -650, that doesn't mean to bet -650 to win 100 (if your unit size is 100.00). It means bet 100 to win 15.38. Don't get greedy thinking these are guaranteed to win, they are not! What I can guarantee which you can see is these are heavyweight advantaged props, but it is still one game and anything can happen! Whatever your unit size, stick with betting 1 unit. betting is a continuous of scraping a few dollars here and there, and suddenly when you look down, those few dollars start to add up instead of disappearing. STAY DISCIPLINED PLEASE!
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HIGHEST SCORING HALF:    2ND    -155

There has been a long history of Super Bowl games starting slowly. It seems that each team takes a look at how they are being defended early in the game before they open things up. The total points scored in the 1st quarter of 53 Super Bowl games is just 439 total points. that has led to the 2nd half outscoring the first half 1263-1142. The last 21 Super Bowls has seen the 2nd half outscore the 1st half to a record of 16-4-1. Like the odds here. The 2nd half is 8-2-1 in this when the total has been 50+ and 18-6-1 if the total has been 47+. Make the play on the 2nd half being the higher scoring half.
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HIGHEST SCORING QUARTER UNDER 21 -155

Overall there has been just 16 of 53 Super Bowls that saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter. That is just 30% if all games. The next thing to look at is the early years of the Super Bowl that had a lot of low scoring games, or at least by the posted totals the games were anticipated to be lower scoring. prior to Super Bowl 28 there was just 1 game with a posted total of 50+ so if we start from there and look at games from Super Bowl 28 forward we get a better idea on this. There have since been 10 Super Bowls with a posted total of 50+. just 2 of those saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter between both teams. make the play on the under.
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LOWEST SCORING QUARTER  UNDER   3.5   +140:

There has been 34 times out of the 53 Super Bowls that saw the lowest scoring combined score come in at 3 or fewer points or 64.2% of the time. It isn't just because the games were lower scoring in the early years, as one might expect. The fact is in the last 21 Super Bowls it has occurred 13 times or 62% of the time, including 5 of the last 7 times the total was 50+. Getting plus odds on this shows value.
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TEAM THAT SCORES LAST WINS THE GAME  YES  -240:

This is one of the best values of all. The Yes is 18-2 the last 20 years, 27-5 in the last 32 years and 33-7 the last 40 years. needless to say the odds makers swung and missed on this one.
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PLAY KC/SF  UNDER   54.5   -110





Enjoy the game!

When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule:

week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8

SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records

ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%)  avg line: 4.3+6:  97-41-3 (70.3%)  -6:  36-102-3 (26.1%)  +10:  111-27-3 (80.4%)  -10:  24-116-1 (17.1%)  

O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%)

Make the play on the under.

When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule:

week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8

SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records

ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%)  avg line: 4.3+6:  97-41-3 (70.3%)  -6:  36-102-3 (26.1%)  +10:  111-27-3 (80.4%)  -10:  24-116-1 (17.1%)  

O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%)

Make the play on the under.

When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule:

week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8

SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records

ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%)  avg line: 4.3+6:  97-41-3 (70.3%)  -6:  36-102-3 (26.1%)  +10:  111-27-3 (80.4%)  -10:  24-116-1 (17.1%)  

O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%)

Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that os 27-3 ATS:

H and po:points > 34 and ppo:points > 34 and tS(o:points,N=2) > 80 and 49 > total > 35

SU:13-18-0 (-2.84, 41.9%)Teaser Records

ATS:13-18-0 (-2.29, 41.9%)  avg line: 0.5+6:  20-11-0 (64.5%)  -6:  7-22-2 (24.1%)  +10:  27-4-0 (87.1%)  -10:  1-28-2 (3.4%)  

O/U:3-27-1 (-8.94, 10.0%)

Make the play on the under.