Sunday January 28th, 2024

Game of the Year Side Play · [322] San Francisco 49ERS
 Mr. East   Sun Jan 28th, 2024 6:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

Expert Preview: MREAST NFL SUNDAY NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEARExpert Analysis: The NFL Conference Championship game will have the Detroit Lions facing the San Francisco 49ers. There is one thing most bettors have their eyes on, and that is the status of Deebo Samuel. Samuel injured his shoulder against Green Bay, and has been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. The Niners have played without Samuel 17 times and are 8-9 SU in those games, including all 3 in their 3 game losing streak. The 17 games have seen them average 24.2ppg, while they are 53-23 SU when he plays, and average 26.8ppg with him. While it is a short sample size you can say he is worth 2.6ppg to the offense. I think the focal point on his value is legit, no one is talking about Jared Goff, and there is considerable value when you take a look beyond the overall numbers. Goff has played his 2 playoff games at home where he has thrown for 3,314 total yards at 69% and a yards per attempt average of 8.1ypa. He has 25 TDs to 8 INTs. When you look at his numbers on the road and on grass there is a stark difference. He has thrown for 1,261 yards and completed just 63.6% at 6.5 yards per attempt, with 5 TDs and 4 INTs. His QB rating is 105.5 on turf and 82 on grass. That is going from All-Pro to bottom 5. He has been sacked 15 times on 410 drop backs on turf, and 15 times on 195 drop backs on grass. This season the Lions averaged 18.8ppg on grass, and 30.1ppg on artificial surface. While everyone is focused on Samuels 2.6ppg net value, no one is talking about Goff`s huge difference of 30.1ppg vs. 18.8ppg or 11.3ppg! The Lions have also given up 3.6ppg more on the road, which is probably more reflective of more time on the field due to a vastly diminished offense. The Lions have played 1 game on grass since losing to Baltimore 38-6 in week 7, and that was a 28-13 loss to the Bears in week 14. The public is storming the Lions at 71%, yet the line has risen to 7.5. That usually doesn`t work out well. My playoff game of the year is on San Francisco.

The Detroit Lions got a huge win, and are no longer the team that has gone the longest without a playoff win. I think they had a lot of pressure on them, but the electric crowd, and Jered Goff great performance, and being able to run the last 4:07 off the clock to secure a 24-23 win was huge for this team. Since November 6th of last year only 2 teams have a better record than the Lions. (SF, KC), but they are not held with as high esteem as those teams. Goff ran his record to 22-0 SU when favored by fewer than 7 points. Tampa Bay's win over Philadelphia didn't say a lot as the Eagles finished the season at 1-6. The Buc's 6 other games vs. a team that made the playoffs was 1-5, and did not beat a team with more than 10 wins other than Philadelphia. I think Detroit will play a lot looser in this game, and they shut the Buc's meager offense down earlier in the season 20-6. The situations for this game are split, so I see no edge either way in that regard. The Lions have arrived, and they will take out the Buc's at home in convincing fashion. Make the play on Detroit.

The Houston Texans came out of the wildcard round with a lot of bettors ready to jump on the bandwagon. C.J. Stroud is a special player, and has done more as a rookie than any QB we have seen in a long time. I see a lot of talk that if he could carve up the top defense of Cleveland, then he will do the same in Baltimore. I'm not so sure of that. Cleveland had a strong defense, but were vulnerable as well, and let's compare the vast difference between the Browns and Ravens to get that off the table. Baltimore allowed a league low 26 total TDs this season, Cleveland allowed 44. Baltimore allowed 6 rushing TDs, Cleveland 15, and the Browns allowed more TD's in the air (27), than Baltimore allowed in any form all season. Baltimore has an elite MVP caliber QB and the Ravens average 6.1 yards per play on the season, and an elite 6.6 yards per play at home. The defense allows just 4.9 yards per play. The Houston offense as lethal at home in the dome of fast turf with no weather issues. They scored 26.6ppg. When they took to the road they averaged 19.5ppg which by NFL standards is below average. They are negative in yards per play on the road from the line of scrimmage. Baltimore is going to put a lot of pressure on Stroud as the Ravens recorded 60 sacks on the season. There is a snowstorm in Baltimore today, and while it won't be snowing for the game it will be extremely windy. The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH sustained winds, with gusts into the 30's. The Houston offense is predicated on the deep ball, but that won't be here with the wind. The betting public is all over the Texans, and that usually doesn't work out well. Make the play on Baltimore.

There are a lot of factors playing into this selection. First and foremost the weather, and its impact on each team. There is a snowstorm in Baltimore today, which won't impact the play tomorrow, but what lies in its wake will. Game time temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s. Moreover, the wind will be sustained between 15-20 MPH and gusting into the 30s.The Houston offense does not run the ball well, and the Baltimore defense excels vs. the run. Houston predicates a lot of what they do on the deep threat, but the weather, and a strong Baltimore pass defense is going to negate that. Baltimore runs the ball as well as any team in the league, and going against a soft Houston run defense, their offense is made for games like this. An abstract study on NFL games proved that a wind of 13 MPH or more sustained has more of a negative impact on the visiting team, especially if they are a dome team. The actual total in these windy conditions drop by just 2.05 ppg from the same teams playing in a dome, but the actual impact is 6.15ppg, and thus the under converts 65% of all games. Not much more needs to be said. Make the play on the under.

This is going to be a tough physical game. I get the feeling the Eagles are hiding an injury to Jalen Hurts. If not then for some reason he just fell off a cliff. His stats are hard to hide. Last year he threw 25 TDs and 6 INTs. This season 23 TDs and 15 INTs. He is running the ball at fewer than 4 yards per carry. His numbers are ugly. Tampa Bay has problems of their own. Baker Mayfield sat out of practice Thursday. He has compound injuries. He is dealing with a bad ankle, as well as injured ribs. His status is still up in the air, but my best guess he will play at some form below what he has done on the season. I think this game is going to be ugly, and the best bet is under the total.

The Detroit Lions have won just 1 playoff game in 66 years (1992). They are a tough team to play, but lost their TE last game to injury and he was an integral part of the offense. There are plenty of weapons left as the Lions still have 3 more receivers with 10 or more TDs. Will it be enough? The Rams arguably have been the best team in the NFL in the last 8 games at 7-1. The loss was in OT at Baltimore, the best team in the AFC. The Rams offense over their last 7 games is averaging 30ppg. It averaged 19.8ppg prior to that. The Lions put up 30+ points 9 times, and this game looks to me like the highest scoring game of the weekend. The Rams have played 6 of their last 7 to the over, with the only miss by 1/2 point. The Lions are 12-5 to the over at home with an average points scored in those games og 55.5ppg. Make the play over the total.

Dallas looked like they were going to be a wildcard team, until Philadelphia took a nose-dive. The Cowboys became the 19th straight NFC East Champion without a repeat from the previous season. Dallas has a roster of stars, and are built for a long playoff run. You can make that case for each of the last 3 years, as Dallas has won 12 or more games in each of them. This team for one reason or another just doesn't get over the top. They have to play a team that arguably has played as good as anyone over the 2nd half of the season. The Packers are as healthy as they have been all season, and the key to their success has been the return of Aaron Jones, the emergence of Jordan Love, and a cast of young receivers that are growing up quickly. Green Bay was 3-6 and questions surrounded them if Love was the QB of the future. He proceeded to answer that leading Green Bay to a 6-2 finish by throwing 18 TDs to just 1 INT. The Packer offense improved by +5.6ppg. The last 3 games, with a healthy Aaron Jones back on the field Green Bay has rushed for 154 yards per game, Love has been even better, and the offense climbed +2.2 more points, for a total gain of +7.8ppg. The defense has had to spend less time on the field, and after allowing 21ppg, is now allowing 16.3ppg since Jones returned. Green Bay is also 9-1-1 ATS entering a playoff game at less than .700. Dallas is just 1-9 SU vs. Green Bay in the last 10 meetings dating back to the 2009 season, and Dallas was favored in 6 of the 10 games! These teams are much closer than it looks. While they are 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning percentage of .430 or less during the streak, and winning those games by an average score of 37.4 to 15.4, they have failed to cover 2 of the 3 games this year with a line of -7 or higher. A team that went 8-0 at home in the regular season is just 9-16 ATS in their first playoff game, and 1-6 ATS vs, a team less than .625. Make the play on Green Bay.

The playoffs have seen a lot of very cold game days. The Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be in a top 10 NFL coldest games. Game time temperature will be around 5 degrees, and it will likely dip below 0 before the game comes to an end. The Chiefs have a home field advantage, but that will widen significantly Saturday Night. The Dolphins bring an 0-10 record into a game with a kickoff temperature of 40 or less, while the Chiefs are 9-1 in such games at home. Worse for the Dolphins is their average margin in the 10 games has been -17ppg. Tua is 0-4 at 45 degrees or less, with 5 TDs and $ INTs, and a passer rating of 77.6. The Dolphins have other problems, as they have 20 players on the injury report, and had to sign 5 players this week just to fill out the roster. Mostert and Waddle were both limited in practice, and if they can even play, neither will be as effective. The Dolphins won just 1 game all season vs. a team with a winning record, have a lot to overcome here. Make the play on Kansas City.

The Houston Texans made a giant leap forward making the playoffs. Houston in their previous 3 seasons managed a total of 11 wins, while posting 10 this season. A lot of that had to do with rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who had one of the best rookie seasons ever. He will face a Cleveland defense that is one of the best in the league, but with that being said the Browns defense did allow 20+ points in 11 of their games. There is one huge thing that stands out with this Browns defense. The Browns played 12 games on grass this season and allowed just 17.6ppg. It was an entirely different story when they played on artificial turf, where in their 5 games they allowed 30.2ppg, and also scored 25.6ppg. All 5 games went well over the total by an average of 16.7ppg. Joe Flacco has elevated the Browns offense as in his 5 starts they have averaged 28.8ppg. Games tend to average more points played on turf and indoors, as the elements don't come into play, or a retractable roof is open when the elements don't come into play. Make the play over the total.

Monday January 8th, 2024

NCAA FB Top Side Play · [287] Washington Huskies   +4.5   -110

 Mr. East   Mon Jan 8th, 2024 7:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NCAAF NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 1/8
Expert Analysis: It is fitting that a pair of 14-0 teams will face each other for the NCAAF National Championship. It comes down to the best defense Washington will have faced all season vs, the best offense Michigan will have faced all-season. Looking back at 2022, Michigan brought a defense into their playoff game vs, an elite offense in TCU and was promptly torched for 51 points. That defense allowed just 13.4ppg. The PAC-12 is all about offense. The Big-10 conference games this season averaged just 45.5 total points per game. The Pac-12 at 57.8ppg. Clearly, these teams have faced different paths to get here. Washington gave up 32ppg against the top 5 offenses they faced this season, which had an average rank of #4 in the nation. The Michigan offense ranks at #12. The Washington offense vs. the top 4 defenses they faced put up no fewer than 34 points in any of the 4 games, and those defenses ranked on average #16. The Michigan defense did not face a top 10 offense all season, but against the top 4 offenses they did face they allowed 18ppg and those offenses ranked an average of #32. This looks a lot like the numbers from the TCU game a couple of years ago. Michigan didn`t beat Alabama the game was tied after 60 minutes due to Alabama miscues from the center position. Milroe was sacked 5 times which was an integral part of the Michigan win. Michigan ranks #20 in sacks per game at 2.7 per contest, but the Washington offensive line is very strong at pass blocking, and Penix is quick to make decisions and get the ball out, and was sacked just 10 times in 14 games. Like TCU a couple of years ago, Washington has weapons all over the field in the passing game. Polk and Odunze have combined for 2,675 receiving yards and 22 TDs on the season, and are generating 17.5 yards per catch. Washington has 5 different receivers who have caught passes good for 45 yards or more. Dillon Johnson was injured last game, but all indications are he is ready to go for this one. He has provided 1,162 yards on just 222 carries, and 16 TDs. He is a threat that will keep Michigan honest, and prevent a light box so they can`t commit extra players to slow down the passing attack. The Michigan offense has played 7 games vs. top 20 defenses, but that includes Nebraska who is rated #8, and the reason is the lack of quality offenses in the Big-10. Rutgers and Maryland are in that mix as well, and none of those teams would be seen with those rankings in the Pac-12. Nuetral site games with a line of -4.5 to -7 show the favorite at 145-169-8 ATS, and cover just 45% of the time. Specifically at -4.5 they are 21-33 ATS. both cases show an average line value of 2 points for the dog, so this one should be -2.5 based on historical numbers, and at 4.5 it crosses key numbers of 3, and 4. The 2 points here, because of where the line is has more value crossing a pair of key numbers. The line value on the dog when a pair of teams meet that are both 11-0 or better rises to 2.40 for the dog. McCarthy has been very efficient in his last 5 games, but Michigan has become a run oriented tea. He has attempted just 109 passes for 751 total yards. They have run 193 times and passed just 109 times. Washington may come out heavy in the box, and make McCarthy throw more, which he is capable of doing. Harbaugh has been out-coached facing unbeaten teams where he is 11-21-1 ATS. A team that beats Alabama by 7 or more points in their previous game is 10-20 ATS in their next game if posted as a favorite. (0-6 ATS if favored). I like Washington in this one.

Michigan -1.5

This game is going to come down to the Iowa ultra elite defense vs a Tennessee offense that averages 31.5ppg. Tennessee faced 4 elite defenses this season and it did not go well. They scored 20 vs. Texas A&M, 20 vs. Alabama, 7 vs. Missouri, and 10 vs. Georgia, or an average of 14.8ppg. Iowa has a better defense than all of those teams, as well as one of the best special teams units in college football. The issue in this game for Iowa is Superstar Cooper Dejean will not play for Iowa which is a huge loss, on special teams as well. Iowa's top 2 opponents Michigan (26), Penn St. (31), scored the most points, and that was with DeJean. Iowa is going to have to score some points to cover this game and it will take more than the 12ppg they have averaged in their las 7 games. Iowa did not score against Penn St, or Michigan. Make the play on Tennessee.

Oregon comes into this game with 2 losses, both to playoff team Washington by 3 points. This team is almost entirely in tact, and they are coming to play, so an "A" effort is likely. Liberty played one of the 5 easiest schedules in the country. Looking for a quality win? There are none. The Oregon speed, physicality, size, depth, and physicality are all much better than Liberty. My line on this game comes up at Oregon -21.5, and I will play the line value here. Make the play on Oregon.

Most of the talk regarding this Bowl is LSU QB Daniels opting out. He is certainly worth a lot, but otherwise the LSU team is mostly in tact. What most don`t realize is LSU has an elite running attack. They average 6.3 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allow 4.3. Wisconsin averaged just 16.8ppg over its last 7 games. LSU has deadly receivers with Malik Nabers (86 catches, 1,546 yards, 14 touchdowns), Brian Thomas Jr. (60-1,079-15) and Kyren Lacy (24-463-7) could give UWs secondary fits. They won`t afford to load up the box and allow these pass catches space. Lost in the Daniels opt out is Wisconsin will be missing their top RB, top 2 WRs, and center. A limited offense is going to be further limited. Make the play on LSU.

This game fits a Bowl situation that is 24-4 to the over. Make the play over the total.

Florida State's level of attrition ahead of its upcoming New Year's Six appearance is eye-opening. The No. 5 Seminoles are set to be without at least 15 players on both sides of the ball in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown against No. 6 Georgia, including seven players who earned All-ACC honors. Florida St. is down to their 3rd string QB in Brock Glenn, and he was 8/21 for 55 yards vs Louisville, and this will be a much bigger challenge. Florida St. is without their top 3 receivers tht combined to account for 53% of all receiving yards and 15 of 25 TDs. Additionally, the Seminoles have just 1 RB remaining with at least 50 carries. They have suffered key losses on defense as well. What could have been a gret game is now an exhibition game. I look for Georgia to be taking a look at young players for next season as well, and the line has grown so high the game is untouchable but the total should be a great opportunity. Make the play under the total.

With DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett both expected to opt out of Saturday’s game against Maryland, the Tigers will be without a lot of experience against the Terrapins on the back side of the defense.  Maryland will be without its starting tight end (Corey Dyches), its best linebacker (Jaishawn Barham) and two elite defensive backs (Tarheeb Still and Corey Coley Jr.). Tagovailoa certainly is the biggest loss, but the core of what has been a very good Maryland defense will not be taking part in the bowl game. Overall the balance of who is playing tends to strongly suggest a much higher scoring game. Make the play over the total.

Penn St. has still not been able to get over the top in the Big-10. Michigan and Ohio St. seem to fight it out every season, and Penn St. stands alone as the next best team. The Nitany Lions own the best defense in NCAAF this season and held 9 of 12 opponents to 15 or fewer points and even the elite offenses of Ohio St. (20 points, and Michigan 24), had lots of trouble moving the ball vs. this team. Their other 3 opponents averaged 9.3ppg. Coach Franklin's Penn St. team is 40-14 ATS off a conference win, and overall his team is 95-65-2 ATS. The Ole Miss Rebels have a very potent attack but it was stopped dead by elite defenses (10 points vs. Alabama, and 17 vs. Georgia), and they face a better defense in this one. Make the play on Penn St.

This game comes down to the best defense in the country that has already proven to stand up vs. better offenses than Ole Miss, while the Rebels were stopped cold by Alabama (10 points), and Georgia (17 points), and Penn St. has a better defense than both, but lacks an explosive offense. Stats and situations favor a low scoring game. Ole Miss is 89-56 to the under vs. a winning team since 1992! (16-6 lately). Make the play under the total.

This looks like a bad spot for Ohio St. but a Bowl team that was ranked in the top 7 to start the season and their Bowl opponent is currently in the top 10, and 1 other factor are 17-2 ATS in their Bowl game. Make the play on Ohio St.

A Bowl team that is no more than a 4 point dog (PK or favorite included), playing a December Bowl with a total greater than 45 but fewer than 66 points are 87-64-1 to the under. Make the play under the total.

A lot of action will be on Memphis as they are playing at home. The history books don't show it that way as a Bowl home team is 19-21 ATS. Iowas St. will lose RB's Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton to the transfer portal, but replacement RB Abu Sama III ran for a very impressive 276 yards and 3 TDs vs, Kansas St. last game. Iowa St. has a gem in freshman QB Rocco Becht. Becht set freshman records at Iowa St. for completions, TDs, and passing yards. Remember Brock Purdy started full time at Iowa St. and had a great freshman season. Iowa St. has a strong defense that can limit the Memphis offense, while Iowa St. should have their way vs the lousy Memphis defense. I like Iowa St.

Both QB's have opted out for this game, and it is likely going to be a game with stacked boxes and short passes, and this game fits a Bowl situation that is 40-13 to the under. Make the play on the under.

NCAAF Bowl teams that are off 4 or more SU and ATS wins are 35-63 ATS (3-10 ATS since 2016, and 16-30 ATS as a favorite). Clemson has 4 situations for this game that are a combined 102-204 ATS. Make the play on Kentucky

Since the start of the 2014 season a Pac-12 Bowl team that is facing a team off a win and the total is greater than 52 is 3-26 ATS failing to cover by 9 points per game. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Once again we have a team allowing 40 or more points prior to their Bowl game, which in a December Bowl is 126-170-4 ATS, and plays against Kansas St. Make the play on NC St.

This game fits my best total which is 691-459 to the under including 23-13 in Bowl games. Make the play under the total.

Boston College lost their final 3 games of the season to finish 6-6. The Eagles sustained 3 losses this season by 25 or more points vs. the better teams on their schedule. SMU put together their best season since at least 1989, as the Mustangs won 11 games. SMU went 9-0 SU as a favorite and covered 6 of the 9, and had a scoring margin of 23.2ppg. They held 8 teams to 16 or fewer points on the season. December Bowl teams that allowed 40 or more points in their last game are 99-133-3 ATS. Make the play on SMU.

The Texas A&M Aggies have not been able to take top recruiting classes and make progress in the SEC. They finished the season at 7-5, and no doubt disappointed. They are feeling the push out the door as 11 starters and at least 7 others have opted out of the Bowl game. It is difficult to see this team making any noise in their game vs Oklahoma St. Not only that, but A&M has lost almost the entire coaching staff including the interim coach. Make the play on Oklahoma St.

The USC season had so much promise, and it went up in flames after starting off looking like a Championship team. I like counter-intuitive plays especially when history rides against the expected outcome here. A bowl team with 3 or more losses that lost their Conference Championship game their last time on the field are 3-19-1 ATS in their Bowl game, with a line from +1, PK, or favorite in a December Bowl. Make the play on USC.

West Virginia has suffered in Bowl games as the Mountaineers are 5-20 ATS since 1980, and 0-11 ATS as a one point dog, or less (favorite). They have an overall 8 game ATS losing streak to any line. North Carolina has 17 players in the portal, but West Virginia has 13. I think replacement freshman QB Conner Harrell is going to surprise. he has limited game experience this season but was good as a passer, and really good as a runner. W. Virginia has lost a lot too including their starting center, which is important. I think the line has moved too much. Hard to get behind a W. Virginia team that has been a no-show in Bowl games for 34 years! Make the play on North Carolina.

Bowl games featuring a team on a 3 game or more streak to the over and playing as a favorite of 3 points or more and a total of fewer than 66 points are 13-40-2 to the under. Make the play under the total.

This line has really changed with the Tulane QB opting out, and the loss of their head coach. I think Tulane will be handing the ball off a lot, and allowing their ball hawking defense ranked 6th in forcing turnovers, play a field position clock running type game. Virginia Tech finished 6-6 with not a single signature win. The 3 toughest defenses they played saw the offense get completely shutdown. They managed 17 vs. Florida St., 16 vs. Rutgers, and 3 vs. Louisville. Tulane has played under in 10 of its last 11 games. Make the play under the total.

This one has a great situation as December Bowl favorites of -8 or more points, that average fewer than 38.5ppg are 37-66-2 ATS and cover just 35.4%. If they are from a P5 Conference they are 14-36-2 ATS covering a woeful 28%. Make the play on UNLV.

This will be a good set up in Texas between a pair of Texas schools and the crowd should be fully engaged for both teams. Rice will be without starting QB J.T. Daniels who has retired from football due to too many concussions.  The starter will be A.J. Padgett, who has not been as good as Daniels but has proven to be more than a serviceable replacement. I think getting 15 practices working with the first team will bridge that gap somewhat. Rice is 3-3 in Bowl games since 1980, and last won one in 2014, so they should be excited to be here. Texas St. comes into this game having allowed 121 total points in their last 2 games, which is more than any Bowl team in history. This will be the first Bowl game in Texas St. history, but a team that averages 35 or more are 225-272-3 ATS in a Bowl game so their opponents cover 55% of 500 gams played which is significant. A team that allowed 40 or more points in their last game entering their Bowl game is 126-170-4 ATS covering just 42.6%. Make the play on Rice, while Rice fits a 51-26 ATS Bowl situation. Make the play on Rice.

One would think that a team that became Bowl eligible because there wasn't enough teams to fill all the slots would probably be very unmotivated. History hasn't had much definitive to say about that, but 5-7 Bowl teams are 4-3 SU and 4-3 ATS. Minnesota is not only a poor offensive team they are going to be missing their starting QB for this game. Bowling Green finished the season at 7-5, but two of the losses came against unbeaten teams (Liberty, Michigan). The Falcons closed the season at 5-1 as the offense took a big leap forward scoring 203 points in their last 6 games compared to 113 in their first 6. This is the first winning season for Bowling Greensinc3 2015. I like Bowling Green in this one.

Bowl game situations can sometimes not have a lot of games in the sample set but this is a long term sample set of 282 games and I rely on it. a team that allowed their last opponent to score 40 or more points before their Bowl game is 123-169-4 ATS. Make the play on San Jose St.

The Buffalo Bills really stepped up their game vs. Dallas last week. it was there most complete game of the season. The Chargers have a new coach and a new QB in Easton Stick. Stick has been a lot better than projected throwing for7.8 yards per attempt with 3 TDs and just 1 INT on the season. Josh Allen is feast or famine, but heavy on the famine. He has turned the ball over his entire career and has 14 INTs already this season. He has a 73.9 passer rating in 2 games vs. the Chargers in his career. The Chargers gave up 63 points last week vs. Las Vegas, and turned the ball over 5 times. Buffalo is in a situation that plays against teams from week 16 on, not including the playoffs, when they are an 11.5 point favorite or more to a total of fewer than 46 points, which is 12-30 ATS. The Chargers are in 15 situations which are a combined 1347-946 ATS. (the most situations pointing to one team I have ever had). Make the play on the LA Chargers.

Through 7 games Utah was 6-1 and looked to be in the fight for the Pac-12 Title. They finished a disappointing 2-3 to finish at 8-4. Northwestern finished 7-5 and closed the season 4-2 and 6-0 ATS, and they did not lose any of their last 7 games by 1 possession. This team showed steady improvement all season, while Utah showed steady decline. Utah is also without their QB and 4 starters overall and have lost 14 players to the transfer portal. It isn't bad enough they regressed but they are also missing several key players for this one, and I don't think they will be highly motivated here. Pac-12 teams playing in a Bowl against a team off a win are 6-29-1 ATS since 2014. (0-14 ATS vs.Big-10). Make the play on Northwestern.

When point spreads are this big, there is nothing I can write about that isn't known. Eastern Michigan is a horrible team and playing without their QB against a defense capable of shutting them out. I'm on South Alabama.

Mason Rudolph will get the start for Pittsburgh today, and most will see value on the other side. Rudolph has made 17 career starts and the numbers aren't confidence producing. However, when you look at his home starts things look quite different. He is 5-2 with a QB rating of close to 9 and has 10 TDs to 4 INTs, and Pittsburgh has scored an average of 25ppg in the 7 starts. Moreover, Pittsburgh is in 8 very positive long term situations. Cincinnati has been out-gained on the season by 63 yards per game and nearly 1 yard per play. They won at Cincinnati by gaining over 400 total yards while holding Cincinnati to a paltry 222 total yards. The situations are largely in favor of the Steelers here. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

James Madison lost at home ending their shot at a perfect season. The Dukes would not be Bowl eligible if not for there being enough teams with 6 wins to qualify. All the Military teams recruit heavily in Texas and their record playing in Texas is off the charts. James Madison however will not be the same team that went 11-1 this season as they will be missing at least 10 starters, including their star QB Jordan McCloud. I have 8 situations that all favor Air Force. The 3 Military teams are a combined 30-14 ATS in Bowl games. Make the play on Air Force.

Another pair of 6-6 teams will meet in the famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Georgia St. looked to be on their way to a great season opening the season 6-1. That 6th win would turn out to be their last win. The Panthers also face the fact that they have 13 players in the portal, so this team that played horribly bad in the 2nd half of the season is even worse. Utah St. Utah St. has beaten every team on its schedule that is equivalent to Georgia St. or worse. They also have played in this Stadium many times vs. Boise St. Statistically the Panthers are by -62 yards a game and Utah St. is +79. Make the play on Utah St.

Troy concluded its regular season at 11-2. They were rewarded with a trip to Birmingham just over 2 hours from campus, so the crowd will decidedly favor Troy in this one. Duke is down to their 3rd string QB freshman Grayson Loftis. Loftis has thrown for 823 yards, but has completed just 53% of his passes. Troy has a big defensse that has sacked opposing QBs 45 times on the season, and that ranks 6th in NCAA Football. The offense is also elite and the Duke defense wasn't as good late in the season as they spent too much time on the field. Troy enters the game on a 10 game winning streak losing games this season to James Madison and Kansas St. Duke will be missing 6 starters for this game. I like Troy in this one.

This is one of 6 Bowl games this season that match a pair of 6-6 teams. Arkansas St. faced the tougher schedule this season. It will be the Northern Illinois running attack, vs. the Arkansas passing attack in this one, and both have an edge. I like the idea of playing the passing attack over a run oriented attack, because if a team falls behind and can't pass they are in trouble. I think this is a pick-em type game with a slight edge to the more successful passing team. Make the play on Arkansas St.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets finished the season at 6-6, but they showed the capacity to play with the better teams in the ACC. Georgia Tech Lost to Louisville by just 5, beat Miami, Fla. on the road and took down North Carolina at home. They also lost to SEC powerhouse Georgia by just 8 points. They certainly can hang with Central Florida as the Knights also finished at 6-6. The schedule also included Clemson, and Ole Miss so they have competed with a lot of better teams than they will face here. Central Florida also finished at 6-6, and 2 of their wins came vs. Kent St., and Villanova. This game looks more like a tossup to me, and I will make the play on Georgia Tech

This game fits a bowl total situation that is 33-7-1 to the over. Make the play over the total.Make the play over the total.

The UT San Antonio Roadrunners have become a highly respected mid-major as they are now 31-9 SU over the last 3 years. That reputation has pushed the line in this game to a point where the value comes in question. Marshall needed a win in their last game of the season to become Bowl eligible. Marshall was awful ATS this season at 4-8 ATS, but Bowl teams with a .333 ATS winning percentage are 42-25-2 ATS in their Bowl game. Despite playing games vs. Virginia Tech, which they won outright, James Madison who they lost to by just 11 and NC State who they lost to by just 7, they have not been a dog of more than 10.5 points in any of them and here we have UTSA giving more than any of those games. Huge Bowl favorites have never fared to the level of the line over the years as Bowl favorites of 10.5 or more points are 48-65 ATS. Make the play on Marshall.

It has been a strange season for Old Dominion. The Monarchs completed the regular season 6-6 by winning their last 2 games. They had 2 difficult games vs. Virginia Tech (a 36-17 loss), and Liberty (a 38-10 loss to Liberty). The other 10 games were all decided by 7 or fewer points. That leaves very little margin for error as they are a 4.5 point favorite as of this writing. Taking it a step further, 7 of heir games were decided by 4 or fewer points. This team has been beaten by opt outs, injuries, or the transfer portal as 4 starters will not play and they have 13 players in the transfer portal. Western Kentucky is 7-5 but 3 of the 5 losses have come to Ohio St., Liberty, and Troy. They are 7-2 outside those games. Make the play on Western Kentucky.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a big opportunity today at home as they take on 10-3 Baltimore. Last week the Jags faced the #1 defense in the NFL the Cleveland Browns and this week they get the 2nd highest rated defense. Trevor Lawrence was hobbled last week, and that took his legs away, but he should be able to make plays running the ball this week and scrambling into positive plays. The Ravens will be missing a key cog again in their offense as TE Mark Andrews is out. Jacksonville saw Trevor Lawrence numbers take a big hit last week, but they were also missing three offensive lineman, and 2 of them will be back this week. Tonight's game will feature heavy winds, as the wind will be blowing up to 35 MPH. Taking Kyle Hamilton out of the Baltimore secondary will provide more opportunities for the Jacksonville offense. The Jags fit in a super strong 109-44-5 ATS 5-2 ATS this yr) situation, that has even better subsets. Make the play on Jacksonville.

Washington is allowing better than 40ppg in their last 3, and that make the over appear very attractive. However, a team that has allowed 115 or more points in their last 3 games are 53-28 to the under. Coach McVay is also 48-32 to the under when his team is posted as a favorite, and Washington is 97-71 to the under as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Make the play under the total.

This game has several very strong situations, and one is 58-13 ATS, and 6 others are better than 60% ATS. Make the play on Houston.

Bailey Zappe is not the long term solution at QB for the New England Patriots. His starts have yielded an offense that has produced 6.2ppg. I doubt they can score much against a Kansas City defense allowing 17.5ppg. The Chiefs have lost consecutive games just 5 times since 2017 and in the previous 4 they are 4-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average margin of 20ppg. New England has scored 34 points in their last 4 games or 8.5ppg, and I think they struggle to reach that number here. The Pats are 2-12 ATS since the beginning of last season as a dog.Make the play on Kansas City.

This would normally be a trap game for Kansas City, but off of 2 losses they will show up today, and I think the Patriots will not find the end-zone in this game, and their defense will limit a Kansas City offense that is not nearly as good as we have seen in recent years. Backed by a situation that is 109-76 I will make the play under the total.

This is not the game either team was hoping they would be playing in to start the season. Texas Tech has been hit hard by players in the transfer portal as they have 14, and as of this writing that is the 8th most of any Bowl team. There are 4 starters among the 14 defectors. California comes into this game in good shape from that perspective. All the Bowl situations favor the Bears as well. Make the play on California.

This game is all about situations and they across the board favor Detroit. A team off a dog win of greater than 13 points from week 5 on and are playing as a road dog are 68-102-3 ATS (11-23 ATS lately). The Lions are 14-5 ATS at home in their last 19 games. The Broncos are 4-16 SU and 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 road games. Denver has been out-gained by 76 yards a game on the season, and that expands to -136 yards per game on the road. The Lions are +81 yards per game at home on the season, and have a big edge across the board. Make the play on Detroit.

I`m not sure if a team is going to be less motivated than Fresno St. entering its Bowl game. Fresno St. opened the season at 8-1 and looked like a strong candidate for a New Years-6 Bowl. They proceeded to drop their last 3 games of the season to finish 8-4. It was a total collapse on both sides of the ball. I don`t think New Mexico St. presents an exciting opponent, but the Aggies have had a special year. New Mexico St. lost 4 games, and 2 were to unbeaten Liberty, and another was 3 point loss to Hawaii. This is the first time this team has made consecutive Bowl appearances, and they also fit a 58-38 ATS Bowl situation. Make the play on New Mexico St.

The Miami,O. RedHawks will head to the Myrtle Beach Bowl in S.C. with a 9-3 record on the season, and will take on Appalachian St. One of the most revealing stats coming into a Bowl game is points scored in a teams last game. When that number tops 39 in their last game prior to the Bowl game they proceed to go 122-166-4 ATS in their Bowl game. This goes against Appalachian St. in this game, and the play is on Miami, O.

The Jacksonville St. Gamecocks had a very good season at 8-4, and they will take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in the New Orleans Bowl. Louisiana will have the home crowd advantage playing this game in-state. It took a 52-21 win over UL Monroe for the Ragin' Cajuns to get here. This game comes down to a long standing Bowl outcome when one team has an ATS winning percentage and the other is .500 or better, but not better than .800. These Bowl games have gone 125-81-5 ATS. Make the play on Louisiana.

The Cincinnati Bengals have won 2 straight games, but I think the match up here with the Vikings leaves them at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball. The Bengals allow more catches and yards to opponent TEs (88 for 935 yards), than any team in the NFL. T.J. Hockenson has caught more balls than any TE this season (85), good for 839 yards. Meanwhile the Vikings defense over the last 8 games is allowing just 1.4 points per drive, and 15.6ppg. Both of those numbers are the best in the NFL. Jake Browning is going to be pressured into mistakes, as the Vikings send 6 pass rushers on over 10% of all snaps. The Vikings also fit a 106-57 ATS situation in this game. Make the play on Minnesota.

I wrote a lot about the advantages in this game, and it also fits a total situation that is 40-9-3 to the under. Make the play under the total.

The Ohio, U. Bobcats finished the season at 9-3, and will take on Georgia Southern who started the season at 6-2, but folded late in the season to lose their final 4 games. A team that enters their Bowl game that doesn't run the ball often tends to struggle in their Bowl game. If a team averages fewer than 31 rushes per contest and are playing in a December Bowl to a line that does not have them as a 3 point dog or more is 11-27 ATS in their Bowl game. I also have a statistical situation where the qualify

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on the UNDER

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on Iowa.

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on the UNDER

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on SMU

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on Boise St.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had a problem with receivers dropping balls tis season. There were 5 such instances last week and none more costly than Valdez-Scandling's drop, that changed the game. The Chiefs offense has suffered and is averaging just 22.5ppg through 10 games. The Chiefs have closed a game this season just 3 times with a 10+ point win, after doing so 39 times the last 6 seasons. The Chiefs defense is actually what is making the season good. The weak spot in the defense is stopping the run as they have been elite against the pass. They will get a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs today as interim head coach is pounding the ball and Jacobs is getting over 22 carries a game since Antonio Pierce took over. Jacobs will be used in the passing game, and the Raiders have an edge with their screen game, and I'm sure Jacobs will be targeted. The Chiefs last win by 10 or more points came all the way back to week 7 of last season. I like the Vegas Raiders in this one.

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great situation for this game to go over the total. The Eagles are 41-9 ATS to the over following a game where they scored fewer than 23 points as a dog. Make the play over the total.

One thing that history shows is when an NFL team has played at least 4 straight games that have gone under the total, the odds-makers compensate the total, and quite often the adjustment ahead of the anticipated public jumping on the bandwagon, turns the line in favor of the other direction which is over the total, especially when it is a below average total. A team off 4 straight games playing under the total that has a season long scoring margin of -4 points or more (Denver), and playing to a low total from 34 to 41 are 71-39-2 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The New Orleans Saints are 5-5, but that is good enough to lead the NFC South which is the worst division in the NFL this season. They will face the Atlanta Falcons who will be going with Taylor Heinicke at QB. The Falcons are 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS when he is at QB this year, and he is 14-20 ATS in his NFL career. Derek Carr will return at QB for the Saints and he has 10 TDs to 4 picks on the season. New Orleans is off their bye week, and they fit a situation that involves certain teams coming off their bye that is 87-58-2 ATS, while Atlanta fits a late season situations that plays against certain teams that are off a road loss, later in the season which is 109-150-8 ATS. Make the play on New Orleans.

The New England Patriots certainly have offensive issues as they have averaged 14.1ppg on the season. The Patriots have scored 17 or fewer points in 8 of their last 9 games, so they have been consistently bad. The Giants put up 31 points last week, and that number is very deceiving. The Giants were held to 292 total yards and did their scoring because the Washington Commanders turned the ball over 6 times. The Giants in their previous 8 games averaged fewer than 11ppg. Coach Belichick has seen his team play 10-0 ATS to the under when failing to cover in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Giants over the past 3 seasons are 12-1 ATS to the under as a home dog. The Giants have a long history of playing under vs. a team with a losing record as they are 106-78 ATS to the under. I like the under in this one.

Virginia Tech has not fared well offensively vs. the opponents on their schedule with a strong defense (Louisville 3, and Rutgers 16). They have however scored well when facing most other defenses. The Hokies otherwise average around 30ppg. Virginia is giving up 32ppg so I see the Hokies moving the ball well here. Virginia has an improved offense. The Cavs averaged just 21.4ppg through their first 5 games, but over their last 6 have averaged 26ppg. This game looks like it should be in the high 50s, and the game applies to a 177-108 ATS situation to the over as well. Make the play over the total.

Miami, O. is a very strong defense for a MAC team as they have allowed just 16.5ppg on the season. The Red Hawks are allowing just 10ppg in MAC games. Ball St. allowed 40 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games but in their last 5 games they have allowed less than 15ppg. Neither of these teams have much of an offense and they tend to just run the ball and play field position. Make the play under the total.

These teams are about dead even from the line of scrimmage and have played a very similar strength of schedule. I am leaning on the fact that Ohio St. is 17-4 ATS since 2008 as a dog, and they are also 12-9 SU in those games. The Buckeyes have played great on the road for over 3 decades where they are 87-59 ATS. I am backing Ohio St. in this one.

The Oregon Ducks in my estimation are a playoff team, and many agree as the line is this game has shot up all week. They have struggled against the 2 best offenses they have faced as they lost by 3 to Washington, and beat USC by just 9 points. Oregon St. has a very good offense and should have beaten Washington last week but a 2 turnover deficit did them in. Oregon St. is 34-14 ATS off a 7 or fewer point conference loss in their last 48 tries, as well as 46-22 ATS if they have held their last 2 opponents to 125 or fewer rushing yards. I like Oregon St. in this one.

Penn St. and Michigan St. will clash tonight at Ford Field in Detroit. Penn St. still can't get over the top as losses to Michigan and Ohio St. by fewer thn 10 points each, has them on the outside looking in again for any Big-10 Championship aspirations. Penn St. has a highly rated defense, but the offense has not been able to deliver when needed and is below average. I can't imagine this will be a highly motivational spot for Michigan St. as the game really doesn't mean a whole lot. Michigan St. has a chance to make their season with a win, and I expect them to show up. Too many points. Make the play on Michigan St.

Boise St. has been a 2 QB team this season, but the best of the two, Maddox Madsen is out for the season. That means Taylen Green who has thrown for almost 2 full yards per attempt on the season gets the start. Green has thrown for fewer TDs despite throwing 48 more passes than Madsen, as well as twice as many picks. Zac Larrier is out at QB for Air Force as well. That doesn't matter a whole lot as Air Force has thrown the ball just 82 times all season and Jensen Jones has run the ball better at 5 yards a carry at QB out of the triple-option. I think the fact that Air Force started the season at 8-0 and has lost 3 straight games has really changed the line here, and the value is on Air Force. The Falcons had 10 turnovers in 2 of the 3 losses, which is not going to translate forward. Make the play on Air Force.

The Central Michigan Chippewa's have their work cut out for them as they host the 10-1 Toledo Rockets. Central Michigan is 5-6 and need a win to gain Bowl eligibility. Home dogs looking to become bowl eligible in their final game cover just 45% of the time. Toledo is 10-1 on the season and to come from way behind vs. Bowling Green last week in a thrilling 32-31 win. A team that is better than .900 winning percentage off a 1 point win is 99-79-1 ATS covering 55.6% of all games. The Toledo offense should dominate this game vs the very leaky Central Michigan defense. Make the play on Toledo.

The Akron football program has never been able to get any traction and this season is no different. Since the start of the 2019 season the Zips are 7-46 SU and 20-33 ATS, and that includes 7-17 ATS at home where they clearly have no advantage losing by better than 16ppg on their own field. Thing gets worse for the Zips when playing at home to a spread of 13 or more where they are a woeful 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS. Ohio, U. is 8-3 and is a below average offense, but better than average on defense, and they should limit Akron to very few points in this contest. Ohio, U. has a long history of beating up on awful teams. They are 38-22 ATS since 1992 when taking on a team with a winning percentage of .250 or less. Make the play on Ohio, U.

The NFL can be stranger than any league from week to week. Last week the Niners dominated while the Seahawks really struggled. That tends to have bettors looking toward the team that makes them comfortable off the previous week. The NFL is also a contrarian league, where what you think will happen often goes south. Tonight is a prime example of this in play. A team that outscores opponents by 10 or more points and off a win of 10 points or more are a dreadful 44-92-3 ATS since 2010. Coach Pete Carroll is 18-4-2 ATS as a home dog and the well touted 12th man will be in the house tonight and ready to gobble up the 49ers. Make the play on Seattle.

This Egg Bowl rivalry goes back a long way. Ole Miss comes into this game t 9-2 on the season and the 2 losses were to top 10 teams in Georgia, and Alabama. The defense looks worse than it actually is because they have faced Alabama,LSU, and Georgia. They allowed 1,605 yards in those 3 games. Otherwise the defense has been slightly above average. Miss St. has a brutal offense, and before facing a cupcake last week in Southern Miss, the Bulldogs scored just 33 points in 4 SEC games. Overall they have averaged 14.8ppg in 7 SEC contests, and against a high powered offense in Ole Miss, that is not going to get it done. This series is tied 17-17 over the last 34 years. I don't like a double-digit road favorite in a big rivalry match up. I'm more robust on the total, which is currently in the mid-50s. The last 34 meetings these teams have combined to score over 55 total points just 7 times!The last 27 meetings has produced 20 games under the total. Ole Miss is also 18-5 ATS to the under if they allowed 3 or fewer points in first half of their last game. Make the play under the total.

There isn't a lot to write about this game. The difference between these two teams is huge. It comes down to if this is the right spot for either team. Most of situations are trending against Washington, and among those is one huge one. It has to do in part with huge dogs off a pair of losses. It works against Washington and is an amazing 25-0 ATS playing against the qualifying team. Make the play on Dallas.

The Green Bay Packers had a lot of hope that Jordan Love would be able to keep the team winning. They were beaten in every statistic that is meaningful by the Lions at home earlier this season. Since November 6th of last year, there is not an NFL team that has fewer losses than Detroit. Jordan Love has 19 TDs and 13 INTs in his brief career with an 83 passer rating. The Packer offense doesn't have enough to stay in this game especially if Aaron Jones is out, which seems to be the case. The Lions fit a late season Thursday situation that is team specific, and they are 10-0 ATS and it is active here. Make the play on Detroit.

Eastern Michigan can secure a bowl bid as they enter this game at 5-6 for the season. The weather tonight in Buffalo will be a factor in this game, as rain is forecast and wind will be gusting into the 30+ MPH range. Road dogs tend to play well when there is a very low total. That is even better when it is a conference game. Conference road dogs are 49-26-3 ATS when the total is 40 or fewer points and the road dog line is less than a TD (Less than +7). The worst part of the Buffalo defense is stopping the run where they allow 5.2 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that average 4.4. I expect a lot of running in this game due to the high winds, and Eastern Michigan has an advantage in that metric. Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

I'll bet not to manty would guess that the Minnesota Vikings have the longest current winning streak at 5 games than any NFL team. All 5 while Justin Jefferson has been out. He will play this week which will make them immediately better. Dobbs has been nifty, and crafty, and good, a lethal combination. The Denver defense has been pretty awful so far this season. They struggle against the run and pass, and I think Minnesota is going to get some big plays. Denver has really struggled in close games as they are 6-15 ATS in games decided by 3 or fewer points. I like Minnesota.

It is time for the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen to pay attention to detail and rally the rest of the season to be the Super Bowl contender everyone still thinks they are. Allen is a high maintenance QB, and has been turnover prone. The Bills are 2-4 in their last 6 games and have turned the ball over 13 times. That is 9 more than their opponent. The Bills 4 losses in their last 6 games have come by 2,6,9, and 3 points. They are in every game. The Jets offense is brutally bad averaging 10ppg over their last 3. I smell a big blowout here. Make the play on Buffalo.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a smoke and mirrors team all season. They are the first team ever in NFL history to have been out-gained by each of their 9 opponents and have a winning record. The Steelers have been out-gained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season. Cleveland will likely turn to P.J. Walker at QB. Walker has surprised in his limited NFL starts as he is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in his previous 10 career starts. Pittsburgh is weak on both sides of the ball, and the numbers are going to catch up with the Steelers this week. Make the play on Cleveland.

Sometimes history leaves behind some clues as to what to expect. Is this a spot where Dallas just takes apart the Panthers in easy fashion, or is this one of those games that Dallas throws up a stinker? History points us in the opposite direction, and with the NFL a contrarian league, it fits in very well. Dallas is being backed by 75% of the public. The situation is as follows. Play against an NFL away favorite that has a 10ppg scoring margin or higher, and they won their previous game by at least 10 points. Since the start of the 2010 season these teams are 43-92-1 ATS, and from game 3 through game 14 they are 22-60-1 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

The NY Giants have one of the worst ever offenses with Tommy Devito at QB. They are facing the Commanders who aren't much better as Washington is a negative team from the line of scrimmage. They have never been a good team when playing as a big favorite. This is probably a surprise to most but the Commanders have been more than a 1 possession favorite (8.5 points or more), just 16 times since December 6, 1992! Those games did not turn out well, as despite on average being a big favorite they are 7-9 SU (average line -10.5 points). They have been brutal ATS in these games at 2-14. I will take the NY Giants in this one.

The Oregon Ducks are 8-2 on the season after winning 10 games last season. They have a chance to be the only Oregon St. team since at least 1989 to win 20 games over 2 consecutive seasons. They have a chance at home tonight (more on them at home later), to make some noise and shaking things up Nationally as well as the Pac-12 standings. This is a huge game for the Beavers and their fan base, and there will be a lot of life at this game in favor of the home team. Washington is the best offense in NCAAF, but the Beavers are a lot closer than it may look. Washington through 4 games this season averaged 50ppg and was allowing 17. Their last 6 they have averaged 35.2ppg and have allowed 28ppg. Those are not good numbers going against a very capable Oregon St. tea,. The Beavers have been unstoppable at home. They are 16-1 SU and 16-1 ATS over the last 3 years at home, and have out-scored opponents by 20ppg. Their only loss was last season to USC and by just 3 points. I like Oregon St.

I think you can make a strong argument that Notre Dame is the best 3 loss team in NCAA Football. The Irish have had a top shelf schedule. Wake Forest has totally collapsed as the Demon Deacons started the season at 3-0, they have since gone 1-6. Statistically, there is line value here, and when you add in a very strong situation that applies to Notre Dame, it is a very solid play. A home favorite of -20 or more points, that is coming off 13 days rest (bye week), are an amazing 114-62-7 ATS and covering 65% of all games in a significant sample size. Make the play on Notre Dame

A lot of sports outcomes have a lot to do with mach ups, and this is a horrible match up for Temple. Temple has one of the worst pass defenses in the country as they allow 9 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that have averaged just 7.1. The strength of the UAB team is their passing attack. The Blazers average 7.9 yards per attempt vs. a schedule of teams allowing 7.3. There is no other huge mismatch on either side of the ball, so I think UAB has a big edge here. Make the play on UAB.

Memphis and SMU are both 8-2 on the season, so this is a huge game for both teams. The records may be the same, but not the teams. SMU is better offensively, and significantly better defensively. SMU to a similar schedule strength as Memphis has out-gained their opponents by 2.1 yards per play, while Memphis has out-gained their opponents by just 0.3 yards a play. There is a significant edge to SMU in a key element of handicapping. Memphis is 22-44 ATS after scoring 42 or more points last game, and just 5-14 ATS vs. teams that complete better than 58% of their passes over the last 3 years. I'm on SMU in this one.

The Detroit Lions have been bad for so long it is hard to think of them as a very good team. The light went on for this team back in early November of last season, and since that point in time Detroit is 14-4 SU and 15-3 ATS. They have also risen to the occasion as a dog where they are 7-1 ATS where they have won 6 of them outright. Jared Goff is quietly 36-20 ATS over the last 3 seasons with 82 TDs and just 33 INTs. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have lost fewer games than the Lions in their last 18 played. The numbers are elite for the Lions, and the public still has not caught on. The Chargers always seem to be right there, but can't seem to ever get over the top. Detroit fits a game where a team is off their bye week that is 51-23 ATS, as well as a 39-11 ATS situation. Make the play on Detroit.

The Green Bay Packers got a much needed win last week and they are getting healthier. Aaron Jones made a difference in the offense. The Packers went for 391 total yards which is the most the offense has generated in a game all season. Jordan Love seems to play better in defensive games as he is 4-1 ATS with with 9 TDs and just 2 INTs. It seems when he is not asked or feel pressured to do too much he has been a lot more comfortable. The Steelers have really been lucky to be 5-3. They are the first NFL team ever to have a winning record after 8 games and not out-gaining any of their opponents. The Steelers are averaging turning their opponent over 2 times a game, and has forced a turnover in all 8 games. The Packers are allowing fewer than 20 points per game. Green Bay is 36-19 ATS when they have held their last 2 opponents to under 100 rushing yards, when playing on the road. Make the play on Green Bay.

Don't look now, but the Houston Texans are green and growing fast. It sure looks like they found a gem in the draft in C.J. Stroud. Stroud has been playing at a high level and for the season he has thrown 14 TDs to just 1 INT and has a passer rating of 102.9. He has thrived as a dog where he is 4-1 ATS with 3 outright wins. Joe Burrow looks healthy but after last season throwing for 7.3 yards per attempt, this year he is at a woeful 6.0. This could easily turn into a hangover game for the Bengals who have beaten San Francisco, and Buffalo in their last 2 games. I could easily see them out of focus here. Cincinnati is generating 4.9 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 6.2. The Houston passing game is elite, and will keep them in the game here. Make the play on Houston.

I have many situations across all sports but this one is one of few that I play blindly because it has been ultra strong and predictive. It is 104-48 ATS, with a subset that is 78-29 ATS. Make the ply on Tennessee.

The Indianapolis Colts will take on the New England Patriots in Frankfort, Germany. The Colts snapped a 3 game losing streak last week with a win over Carolina. They Colts 9 games with 20 points or more on the season is the most of any NFL team this season. That is going to make this a tough game for New England as the Patriots have topped the 20 point mark just 1 time all season. The other problem is New England has allowed 20 points in 8 of their 9 games, and are just 2-7. Indianapolis is 81-54-3 ATS in a game following one where they allowed 14 or fewer points. Make the play on Indianapolis.