This game fits a playoff total situation that is 199-107 to the under. Moreover playoff totals of 22230 or higher have been 21-32-1 to the under. The games on average beat the total by 5.97ppg. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 114-60-4 ATS and the play is on the over.

NBA games where there is a team that is a 2 or more point dog and is off a win in a game that went under the total are 202-158-4 ATS. When the last game was not a playoff game, but this one is the under is 21-4-1 ATS since April 17 of 2010! Make the play under the total.

NBA games where there is a team that is a 2 or more point dog and is off a win in a game that went under the total are 202-158-4 ATS. When the last game was not a playoff game, but this one is the under is 21-4-1 ATS since April 17 of 2010! Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 114-77 ATS and the play is under the total

This gam fits a situation that is 166-97 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

The scoring in the NBA has sky rocketed. The issue has been at the top of this increased line pressure by the books that have now priced games way too high. When an NBA team is at home to a posted total of 235 or higher the under has been 50-29-1 ATS this year. Make the play under the total.

The San Antonio Spurs have played to a higher percentage of games that have topped the total in the NBA this season. They are currently 29-19-1 ATS to the over this season. They have increased the pace over their last 24 games where they are 19-5 ATS to the over. (19-3 ATS if they have been posted at +2 or higher). Make the play over the total.

The scoring in the NBA has sky rocketed. The issue has been at the top of this increased line pressure by the books that have now priced games way too high. When an NBA team is at home to a posted total of 235 or higher the under has been 50-29-1 ATS this year. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 71-31-6 ATS and the play is under the total.

A team that has been well rested and has played just 4 games in their last 10 days to a high total of 230 or more tend to be fresh and play defense. These teams are 111-49 ATS to the under, and applies to the Bucks tonight. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 40-9 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 55-29 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 54-29 ATS. The play is under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 51-15 ATS and the play is on over the total.

This game fits a situation that is 73-28 ATS and the play is on over the total.

Since the scoring explosion hit the NBA, it has generated a new situation for game totals. This has been 91-46-4 ATS and the play in this game is over the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 150-85-13 ATS, and the play is over the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 150-85-13 ATS, and the play is over the total.

This game fits a very strong total situation that is 150-84-13 ATS. Make the play on over the total.

This game fits a very strong total situation that is 73-28-2 ATS. Make the play over the total.

This is a blind situation play that is backed by a 72-28-2 ATS situation that is active tonight. Make the play on the over.

This is a blind situation play that is backed by a 53-25 ATS situation that is active tonight. Make the play on the under.

Somewhere along the way the Milwaukee Bucks have stopped playing defense. The Bucks head to Atlanta at 26-14, but jut 7-7 in their last 14 games where they have allowed 118ppg. They have become an over the total team with 6 of their last 8 to a total of 227.5 or more have eclipsed the total. The Hawks like to play fast and their last 15 games have seen them top the total in 10 of them. They are allowing 116.5ppg. (5-1 ATS to the over when the total is 229.5 or more). This game also fits a very strong over situation that is 174-101-6 ATS. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that has 2 long-term winning probabilities. One is 109-57-4 ATS and the other is 126-70-4 ATS. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a total situation which is 57-26 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a total situation which is 57-26 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 217-164-16 ATS including a 20-5 ATS run in the last 25 occurrences. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a pair of very strong total situations. One is 129-64- ATS, and the other is 269-180-21 ATS. Make the play on the over.

When an NBA team is off of 2 straight wins by 15 or more points and facing a team off a 10 or more point loss the over is 55-26 ATS (19-3 ATS lately). Make the play over the total.

This game fits a very strong 121-67-4 ATS situation The play is on the over.

My NBA totals have been as good as anyone over the last 15 years. This game fits a situation that is 121-67-4 ATS. The play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 69-23-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 69-23-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 69-23-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

NBA Top Total Play · Under   [509] Boston Celtics vs. [510] Miami Heat   196   -110

 Mr. East   Sun May 29th, 2022 8:30 pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NBA SUNDAY 5/29 PLAY OF THE DAY $25
Expert Analysis: The NBA Eastern Conference Finals all comes down to a game 7 in Miami. These teams have traded blows throughout the series, and expect another physically hotly contested game. The NBA has left behind a blueprint of game 7 totals, and just how differently they tend to play out in contrast to the first 6 games. Game 7 is on an island with its own results, and let`s take a walk through history. Each round matters as the level of competition become more balanced with each passing round. If you look at games played in the Conference Finals series, or NBA Championship Series over the last 20 years or so, there have been 10 games 7`s which isn`t a very large sample size, but it is indicative of how different a game 7 is. The odds makers realize this and it can be seen in the posted total. The 10 series in rounds 3 and 4 that have seen a game 7 show a stark contrast from game 1 vs game 7. The average game 1 total has been 199.7 and the game 7 total has been 191.8 or -7.9ppg fewer than game 1. Looking at this year, the game 1 total was 205 and the game 7 total is currently posted at 196 at Bovada (as of this writing) or an adjustment game 1 to game 7 of -9 points. So we see a -1.1 point difference from historical totals to current totals. This is a public syndrome, that has been made aware of the game 7 totals, and has bet the total down. It is much in the same way as the Army/Navy Football game that has been played for over a decade regardless of line value as the public goes under knowing the details, but the odds makers' adjustment is never enough. The history show NBA playoff game 7`s are 1-9 O/U in rounds 3 and 4. Are the adjustments enough? The 10 games played showed an average total posted of 191.8 with the average game score at 175.9! That is a difference of 15.9ppg. No team has ever scored more than 101 points in these games. Then the question is, scoring is way up in the NBA over the last 5 years or so, isn`t a total set below 200 way too low? My answer would be since 2016 there have been 4 games and the totals in those 4 games averaged 207.8 while the actual game score averaged just 181.2 or a difference of 26.6ppg. The last 4 which have occurred in the high-scoring era of the NBA have all gone under by 26.6ppg, so over a small sample size, it actually shows that things change dramatically in game 7, and are not compensated enough. I will make the play under the total.

Sunday, May 15th, 2022

NBA  Top Total Play · Under   [523] Milwaukee Bucks vs. [524] Boston Celtics 206.5  -110

 Mr. East   Sun May 15th, 2022 3:30 pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NBA SUNDAY 5/15 PLAY OF THE DAY
Expert Analysis: The Bucks and the Celtics have played a very physical series. Giannis has been immense with 3 straight 40-point games, and Jason Tatum was his equal in game 6. I think the fact that Giannis is generating so much of the offense, a lot of Milwaukee players are having a difficult time getting into the flow. Boston will be home for game 7 due to a 5 deep tiebreaker for the #2 seed, as these teams finished dead even in the regular season. Game 7 has typically been a different animal altogether. Everything is on the line, and defense is usually king. Since the start of the 2003 season, from round 2 forward the under is 23-8 and 2 of the 8 losses were due to overtime. If the total is posted at less than 211, the game 7 results from the 2nd round on are 19-5 to the under, with the average cover by 11ppg. Make the play on the under.

This game is based on a very strong total situation which is 226-128 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is based on a very strong total situation which is 226-128 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is based on a very strong total situation which is 226-128 ATS. The play is on the under.

The Brooklyn Nets were sailing along in good shape in the NBA Eastern Conference. The elite team has been crippled with injuries, and will be without Kevin Durant in the foreseeable future. Their last 13 games has seen both teams score 102 points or more, so the over seems like the way to go, but historically speaking that is not the case. Washington has scored 110 or more points in 10 of their last 11, further enhancing the betting public's view on the over. That has led to a total that is pumped and primed to have the opposite outcome. This game fits a situation that is 70-31 ATS to the under, and is in part based on 2 teams with high scoring offenses. Make the play on the under.

Tuesday December 14th, 2021

  Top Total Play · Over   [605] Furman Paladins vs. [606] North Carolina Tar Heels
    Tue Dec 14th, 2021 7:00pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

4 PM GAME    YALE @ VERMONT    UNDER 139.5   -110

This is a very good early season match up between a pair of New England schools that have had plenty of success on the basketball floor. These teams match up pretty well, and defense should be the order of the day. They met in 2019 and managed just 125 points scored, and both teams are defending at a high level right now. These teams take care of the ball, so not a lot of easy buckets, and neither is getting to the line all that much. Those things should keep the clock moving, and make this a quick game. Yale has been 48-28 ATS to the under when playing against a team that has a 4 point scoring margin over their opponents on the season. Make the play on the under.

These teams each lost their opener as they each stepped up in class and were exposed on the offensive end of the court. Combined in their first game of the season they scored a grand total of 90 points. That is a far cry from where this total is. Evansville and IUPUI are rebuilding, and are both predicted to be at or near the bottom of their respective conferences this season. IUPUI lost its top 3 scorers from a year ago and placed just 1 player in double-digits in game one. Evansville managed just 43 points vs Cincinnati, and where are the points coming from? Both also were terrible at the free throw line, further reducing scoring potential. The good news is each held down much stronger opponents, as both played much below total point expectations. Make the play on the under.

NBA LATE SEASON GAMES VS 2 GOOD TEAMS PLAY UNDER IN THIS SITUATION:

The NBA regular season is long and we have reached the gun lap. When we get this late in the season the good teams are fighting for playoff position and it usually leads to a concerted effort on the defensive end of the court. That rings especially true when it is a division game. Let's take a look at how this all sets up:

1)   Division game

2)  Game number is greater than 55

3)  Regular season game

4)  Both teams are greater than .550

5)  Home team (designated only to avoid double-posting of games)

These teams play to a 216-145-8 ATS mark to the under. Covering just shy of 60% of all games with a sample size of more than 350 games. Tonight consider the Suns and Clippers under the total

This game fits a total situation which is 107-59 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game fits a total situation which is 219-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

When a pair of bad teams get together in an NBA game, and neither team has any rest the defenses which are typically bad to begin with on poor teams are a total no-show. After all when a team doesn't play defense when it is rested, what would you expect to see when they have no rest at all. This tends to be more predictable when the game is not between divisional opponents as there is usually more of a rivalry going on between division opponents. Today in the newsletter we have a gem to share with some powerful historic numbers that feeds the above narrative. Let's take a look:

1)  Both teams on 0 rest

2)  Both teams are poor with a winning percentage of .400 or less.

3)   Not a division game

4)  Home favorite

When it comes to the LA Lakers there is no doubt that LeBron is the guy that stirs the drink. The Lakers are 0-4 O/U at home without LeBron on the court with their games averaging just 198.5 total points scored. Everyone is wondering about Boston and why they have struggled so much this season. Tatum and Brown have matured into elite NBA players, and with Kemba Walker at the point, they have a trio of all-stars. Robert Williams has become the rim protector and is starting now that they have traded Theis. Since the insertion into the starting lineup with expanded minutes, he has helped close off the middle, and Boston has been a better defensive team. The Celtics are 8-3 over their last 11 games, and have reduced their points allowed by 4.3ppg and have played 8 of the 11 under the total. This Celtics team is much better than they have played and it is all on the defensive end, and they appear to have made strides there, and are playing like they have the past 2 seasons. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 91=38 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a pair of situations that are 232-147, and 127-76 ATS make the play on the over

The New Orleans Pelicans continue the ride in the over bubble. They will face a defensive challenge from Miami tonight. Heat games are averaging just 215.7ppg on the season. They have given up 144 to Milwaukee, 128 to the Nets, and 125 to the Clippers, and just played Utah to a game that saw 240 points scored. Pelicans 25-3-2 ATS to the over since after New Year's Day. (19-1-2 ATS to a total of 221 or more). They also fit over situations of 59-24, and 80-47. I'm riding the balloon here until it bursts. Make the play on the over.

I don't have a lot to say here other than I trust this particular situation that is backed by a 108-49-4 ATS situation that is flying high for a long time. Make the play on the over.

The New Orleans Pelicans continue to defy the odds makers and their willingness to apply their reality to the numbers. Since the first of the year the Pelicans are 18-1-2 ATS to the over with a posted total of greater than 222. The Pelicans games are averaging 241.3ppg defying posted totals by odds makers by 11.64ppg. While their 241.3ppg average is over a 21 game period, the odds makers have posted just one of their games at more than 237.5. They treat the Brooklyn Nets and their star-studded cast of all-stars much differently, but the Pelicans score more, and do so consistently. Moreover, they are not trending down, they are trending up. Their last 11 games have averaged 248 total points! The ceiling is just too high to ignore, and the odds makers apparently are ignoring. Make the play on the over.

The LA Lakers are obviously a different team without Anthony Davis. They are 7-5 SU without him and 17-6 with him. He makes a huge difference off the glass a net of -4 per contest, and each metric on the team shows some erosion without him in the lineup. The odds makers have not conceded an inch in posting totals, despite evidence to the contrary. The average total for a Lakers game with or without Davis has been 221.3, yet without him they average just 214.8. (small sample sizes). The Suns shot 50% or better in 9 of 10 games, before shooting 49.4% last game. The Lakers are a very strong defending team, and statistically, the Phoenix offense is sliding from the apex during the streak, and should continue to trend down. This game has a strong under indicator that is an impressive 107-49-7 ATS. Make the play under the total.

The Milwaukee Bucks are the classic example of a streaky team. They have been on a course where they won 5 straight, lost 5 straight, and have won 5 straight again. Milwaukee likes to squeeze off a lot of shots and have been 8-2-1 to the over in their last 11 when attempting 90 or more shots. Denver has allowed just 1 of their last 10 opponents to do so, and should have enough defensive input to influence the pace of this contest. Bucks have played 3 straight to the under in their last 3 attempting fewer than 90 shots, and this is one key to an under here. There is also an extremely powerful situation that is 89-36-8 ATS towards the under. Make the play on the under.

The Brooklyn Nets get a lot of ink with high scoring games, but the Washington Wizards ride just under the radar, and have actually played to more games with a total of greater than 231 (the new magic number for NBA totals), at 21 on the season. They have an overall total record on the season of 17-15 to the over, but 13-8 when the total is greater than 231, so 4-7 otherwise. This may be an indication that their offense is better suited to score in a perceived high scoring game. They have under-performed totals of 231 or fewer points by -6.1ppg and over-performed totals of greater than 231 by +3.7ppg. That is a 10 point differential, but we are dealing with small sample sizes, but it is certainly worth noting, as it does tell a story. Those numbers actually increase to +6 to totals of greater than 231 with Russell Westbrook on the court, so we sneak a bit more. Looking at the other end of the court Washington allows 47% shooting and 38% from deep. Grizzlies at their best vs bad 3 point defensive teams where they have played over in 8 of their last 10. They have out-performed the total by +5.5ppg in these contests. A trend, not a system, fits them as well, which is 23-0 ATS and is based on some things I like. Make the play on the over.

It sure looks like these teams have packed it in. The Cavs are looking to move Andre Drummond, and he is not playing. They have gone 16 games without topping the 113 point mark. They have defended better after allowing 9 of 10 opponents to shoot 50% or better, Cleveland has held their last 3 opponents to 45% or less. Houston was above .500 but have dropped 11 straight games. The Rockets offense is struggling and they have shot 43% or less in 9 of their last 11 games. Make the play on the under.

The New Orleans Pelicans are all about offense, but in the process they have left the other end of the floor naked. The Pelicans last 10 games has seen the total score average an astounding 249 points per contest. They are now 19-1-1 ATS to the over in their last 21 games. The Jazz are 14-7 to the over in their last 21 including 4-1 in their last 5. The Jazz has shot 50% or better in 10 of its last 14, and certainly should add another against an ole defense of the Pelicans. This game fits a situation that is 20-0 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over.

The NY Knicks are suddenly a playoff caliber team. They were held back by a brutal offense that is finally showing growth. The Knicks offense managed to reach 120 points just 1 time prior to February 13th, and have done so 3 times since in a span of just 6 games. It is worth noting that all 4 times they have reached this number it has been at home. Overall the Knicks games have averaged 6 more points per game at home. Pacers have played 3 straight to the over and come into this game on 0 rest, so the defense may not be as sharp here. This game fits a situation that is 203-114 ATS. Make the play on the over.

The narrative remains the same. The odds makers remain at a quandary of pricing extreme totals, and they are not finding it yet as the market continues to flourish in the upper range. Totals greater than 231 are now 53-23 ATS. Specifically, if you look at a home team to a total of 235 and up, and the home team is less than .625 (shy of elite), and the road team is better than .425, these games are 18-0 ATS to the over since after the New Year Holiday. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 70-35 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 106-48-4 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 122-67-6 ATS, and the play is on the under

The Phoenix Suns have been a hot team and the offense has been sizzling. Phoenix has averaged 121.5ppg over its last 6 and has shot over 50% on average in the 6 games. Memphis is 9-2-1 to the over in its last 12 games and the tempo for this team has climbed over the past few weeks. The Grizzlies have certainly shown interest in pacing up when playing a team that likes to push the ball. The 10 games this season where the total has been posted in a Memphis game at 224 or higher has seen total points in those Memphis games average 240ppg.(8-1-1 ATS to the over in the 10 games). They have averaged just 212ppg otherwise. Both of these teams played last night, so neither team will have any rest, which is another signal for a higher scoring game. This game also fits an extremely strong 106-48-3 ATS situation on the over as well. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that is 28-6 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 302-182 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 302-182 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 302-182 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 80-35 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Utah Jazz are rolling and not many saw this coming as they will take on the L Clippers. The jazz are now 23-5 on the season and have gone 19-1 in their last 20 games. Looking at these teams they both can score big, but neither team has seen the average score of their games reach this total. I think it is a con job by the odds makers as the public sees elite teams and immediately says over. The fact is when an .800 team is a road favorite in the NBA high scoring era starting in 2016 scoring never materializes as expected. The game take on a defensive intensity. When an elite team (.800 or better), is a road favorite vs another elite team (.700 or better), since the start of the 2016 season they are 11-0 to the under. These games have averaged 214 total points and fallen shy of the total by 13ppg. I like the under in this one.

Crazy events set this game into motion, as weather and covid-19 has created havoc for these teams, so they made a last minute arrangement to put this game on the schedule. That sets the stage for a potential free for all as preparation for this game is at a minimal. Detroit is in a strange position. They are on a very modest 2 game winning streak, but it is a lot bigger than that. It is the first time the Pistons will come into a game on at least a 2 game winning streak since January 20, 2020, or 13 months ago! The Bulls like to push the ball, especially vs weak opponents that are below .400. Against weak teams their games have averaged 235ppg. Couple the situation with the scheduling with that and a historic over situation that is 215-125 ATS with a subset that is 112-55 ATS, and I will make the play on the over.

The NY Knicks lead the NBA in points allowed at 103.6 per game. Tom Thibodeau has gotten this group to dig in on the defensive end of the court, and the Knicks find themselves with a chance to get to .500. Orlando opened the season at 6-2 but has been a woeful 4-16 since, as the injury bug left them with just 8 players for their last game vs Phoenix. The Knicks however through 15 games saw 203.2ppg scored in their games. They have increased the pace and efficiency and since their games have averaged 212.1ppg, an increase of 9ppg. The Magic, much like the Knicks saw their games average 213.7ppg through January 20th, but 220ppg since an increase of 6.3ppg. I see some value here on a low total between two teams that have each seen significant scoring increases as the season has progressed. This game also fits an extremely strong totals indicator that has been 106-47-3 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 41-9 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 103-47 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 110-64 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 113-59 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 96-45 ATS and the play is on the over.

The good news for the Phoenix Suns is Devin Booker has been elevated to probable. The Suns established themselves as an under team with a 12-6-1 mark to that end. That was established early as they opened the season with 6 straight games under the total. The Suns games have played 5 points over the total average after those first 6 games. The Pelicans are firmly established as a team that likes to score, but plays little in the way of defense. The Pelicans are 12-2 to the over in their last 14 games. Ironically, the Pelicans opened the season with 5 straight under the total games as well. The Pelicans games have increased in scoring by 31ppg since game 6 and over the period now average 232ppg. Needless to say a lot of hidden value to this game. Add in a 235-169-9 ATS situation over the total and we have a solid play here. Make the play on the over.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a franchise that has been awful since the Kevin Garnet era. This team despite drafting at or near the top of the 1st round, just can't make any progress. They are a brutal road team, and that leaves some hidden value on the total here. Minnesota scores the same home or away, but the opponent scores just 111.9ppg against them at home and a woeful 120.1ppg on the road. The Spurs used to always be a very good defensive team, but they are allowing 114.5ppg at home, and the door is wide open here for a high scoring game. Add in a situation that is 115-64-6 ATS topping the total, and tonight I will make the play on the over in this one.

Both these teams used to have a lot of offensive weapons but that has changed. Oklahoma City is being run into the ground by feasting opponents. Over the Thunder's last 10 games their opponent is squeezing off an average of 96 shots per contest. Those numbers are scaling up to 99 shots a game over their last 4. That has led to a 7-2 run to the over. Houston is winning again, and the reason appears to be they are turning up the pace of their games as well. Combine what is happening on the floor to a 192-107-11 ATS situation over the total we have some good value here tonight. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 111-38-5 ATS, and the play is on the over.

Both of these teams have become over teams as the Hornets are shooting the ball much better and are 7-2 to the over in their last 9, while the Sixers are healthier and learning each other and have played 10-4 to the over in their last 14. This game also fits a strong over tendency that shows at 99-46-3 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 252-169-13 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 252-169-13 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 115-63-6 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 104-61-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 88-26-1 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 88-26-1 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 76-30-1 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 97-46-3 ATS and the play is on over

This game fits a situation that is 214-132-16 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 490-351-7 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 490-351-7 ATS and the play is on the over.

The Boston Celtics are 10-6 and have played no games with their 3 stars playing full minutes. That is changing as Kemba Walker is seeing his minutes gradually increase, and with it, the Celtics offense is rising to another level. Before the odds makers catch up, the totals for Boston games are rising, while the totals posted are not. This game is also backed up by a 136-77 ATS total system. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 188-104 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 188-104 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 123-82-6 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 122-82 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 122-82 ATS, and the play is on the over.