I'm playing on TAMPA. (10*) The Orioles temporarily cooled off the Rays yesterday but I fully expect Tampa to bounce right back this afternoon. The Rays got second basemen Lowe back yesterday, a welcome addition. He reached base his first three times and scored two runs. Lowe noted: "I felt great. The only thing I'm trying to do out there is help the team win." This afternoon, Kluber gets the call; he's been excellent in b2b starts, both of them quality. In those two starts, he allowed just two combined runs in 12 innings, striking out 12 while walking one. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts, two or less in nine of those. He's got a 3.07 ERA at home, the Rays have won six of his eight starts here. Note that his ERA is considerably better during the day than during the evening. To his credit, Lyles has been pitching well recently. That said, he's still got an ugly 5.52 ERA on the road, opposing hitters batting .278 in those games. Opposing batters are hitting .285 against him during the day, too. As a team, the Rays are 77-46 in day games the past few seasons; the O's are 43-70. Look for the Rays to respond to yesterday's loss, closing out the first half with an important victory and improving to 46-18 the past 64 times that they were favored, at home, in the -125 to -175 range. 

I'm playing on SD. (10*) Back home, after yesterday's loss at Colorado, I expect the Padres to right the ship this evening. Darvish is a different pitcher here in San Diego. In eight starts here this season, averaging 6 2/3 innings per start, he's 4-1 with an outstanding 1.69 ERA and 0.791 WHIP. On the other hand, Bumgarner is 1-5 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.378 WHIP in his eight road starts. SD relievers have a 3.35 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home. Arizona relievers have a 5.44 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road. Darvish dominated the Dbax on 6/20, his only recent start against them. On the other hand, SD is 2-0 in games against Bumgarner in the last month alone. They rocked him in the game here at PetCo. Padres bounce back. 

I'm playing CHICAGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I successfully backed the Sox the last time that Cueto pitched. At the time, I mentioned this of the veteran pitcher: "...Cueto has long been "streaky." He's currently off b2b quality starts. In fact, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in six straight starts. He went at least six complete innings in five of those six starts, going 5 1/3 innings in the other. Cueto commented: 'I feel happy with how my season has been going. I've been able to pitch well, to help the team. And I feel good.' ..." Sure enough, Cueto delivered a gem and the Sox won 8-0. That was at home but Cueto also has a 1.74 ERA in five road starts. That includes Chicago wins over the Mets, Yankees, Astros and Angels. Gray gave up five runs in 4 2/3 innings last start. He's seen b2b starts and three of his past four, decided by a single run. Last time he saw Chicago, he lost 6-1. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Pirates took yesterday's game but I fully expect the Marlins to return the favor this evening. Castano has a handful of starts under his belt. The Marlins are 2-0 when he's taken the mound at home. Last time here, he limited the Mets to two runs through seven complete innings. On the other hand, Stratton hasn't made a big league start since 2019. In his last two starts, he gave up 10 combined earned runs in 10 innings, allowing 16 hits and four walks. So, a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. The Pirates are still just 22-43 the past 65 times that they were road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. They're also 1-8 the past nine times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Marlins roll.

I'm playing ST LOUIS on the run-line (+1.5 runs.) The Cardinals rallied for a win yesterday. Now, some momentum in their corner, they're going to be hungry to salvage the series split. While I generally would rather not lay this high a price, I see the value of an extra +1.5 runs taking on added significance in this one. The Cards closed out their series with Atlanta with a 3-2 game. Now, they've seen the first three games of this series finish with scores of 2-0, 1-0 and 4-3. Speaking of close games, consider that five of Nola's last seven starts were decided by a single run. Mikolas has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six straight. He averaged nearly seven innings per start in that 6-game stretch, too. He's got a sparkling 1.82 ERA when pitching during the evening and he's got a 0.865 WHIP at home. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing BOSTON on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Yesterday's game was decided by a single run. Another close one won't surprise. That said, in a favorable matchup, I like Boston to build positive momentum off yesterday's victory. While Pivetta wasn't his best last time out, he had previously been pitching really well. He'd allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his previous four starts and four or fewer earned runs in each of his previous 13 starts. The Sox are 9-2 his last 11 starts. While Pivetta wasn't his best last time out, at least he kept the ball in the park. Taillon, on the other hand, served up two long balls. He's now allowed four HR's in his past three starts, posting an ugly 7.87 ERA (1.567 WHIP) during that span. With the Yankees favored on the ML, we're able to get the extra +1.5 runs with the Sox at a reasonable price. That's the way I'm playing this one. 

I'm playing OAKLAND on the run-line (+1.5 runs)The A's pulled off the upset yesterday, earning a 1-run victory. I expect them to give the Astros all that they can handle again this afternoon. With Houston a heavy favorite, we're able to get the extra +1.5 runs at a very fair price. Though we may not need them, I feel that's the way to go with this one. I really liked what I saw from Irvin last game. Indeed, he limited Toronto to four hits (0 walks) and one run, through eight complete innings. He had one start at Yankee Stadium where he allowed five runs but otherwise has been extremely consistent, far better than his W/L record suggests. He faced the Astros once this season, going toe-to-toe with Verlander and the A's lost by a single run. In fact, each of his last two starts vs. Houston resulted in a 1-run loss. Odorizzi got roughed up by the Royals (9 hits, 5 runs, just 4 innings) on July 4th and that was his first start since May. Houston did manage to bail him out, winning a 1-run game. Odorizzi's teams are 1-4 in his five career starts AT Oakland and the lone win was by a single run. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Guardians are badly in need of a victory and they've got the right guy on the mound. They're 9-5 when McKenzie has started this season. McKenzie averages slightly better than six innings per road start and he's got a solid 3.60 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in nine road starts. Last time out, he was sensational. He limited the Yankees to a single hit through seven shutout innings. Cleveland won 2-0. On the other hand, Heasley is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in four home starts. Even off a better effort last time out, he's still got an ugly 7.36 ERA his past three starts overall. The Royals are 13-23 in day games. Speaking of day games, McKenzie has a 2.41 ERA (0.84 WHIP) in the day compared to a 6.21 mark at night. Guardians roll. 

I'm playing ARIZONA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) These starters opposed each other in their last start, at Colorado. The Rockies finished on top. With this evening's rematch being played at Arizona, I like the Dbax to return the favor. The Rockies just got swept. They scored six total runs in the three games combined. They're 52-96 on the road the past few seasons. Six times, during that 148 games, they were favored on the ML in the -125 to -175 range. They lost four of those "outright." Gomber has a 6.14 ERA on the road, no better than Keuchel's 6.04 mark at home. Keuchel has now got a couple starts under his belt, after missing some time. While his numbers certainly aren't good, he did throw a quality start (6 innings, 2 runs) against Boston earlier and followed it up by blanking the Yankees through five innings. As I said, he's now had a chance to get into a routine. Arizona has scored at least five runs in five straight games. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on LA. Miami often enjoys an edge on the mound. That won't be the case in this one though. Ohtani isn't getting the attention that he did last season but he's quietly getting it done. Through 13 starts, he's 7-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.013 WHIP. Those numbers have been getting better thanks to the fact that he's got a 0.00 ERA his past three starts. That's right, zero earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. In his previous start, he allowed one run through seven innings. Not surprisingly, LA is 4-0 his past four starts. Over his past two starts, he's struck out 24, while walking only two, in 13 2/3 innings. Dominant. He should get some support here as Rogers has an awful 8.39 ERA and 1.865 WHIP in six home starts. Enough's enough. Angels bounce back. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. (action) Back on track after b2b victories, I expect the BoSox to carry the positive momentum into this evening. Pivetta is off four straight quality starts. The Sox won all four games. He went 8, 7, 7 and 6 innings and allowed 1, 1, 2 and 2 runs. In his last home start, he struck out 10 St. Louis batters, while allowing one run through seven complete. On the season, he's got a 2.79 ERA in seven home starts. Springs' numbers are solid, too. However, he missed his last start for personal reasons, which could throw off his routine a little, and he averages less than five innings per road start. Note that he gave up three HR's to the Pirates in his last start, too. The Sox have thrived against southpaws. Expect them to get it done.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Cubs saw their 4-game winning streak snapped in painful fashion yesterday. They figure to be a bit deflated for this one. The Brewers, on the other hand, got back on track, salvaging the series split against the Pirates. Pitching in their home park is important to both today's starters. Steele has been good at Wrigley but he's 0-2 with an ugly 7.29 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in five road starts. While Lauer has struggled on the road, he's 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in five home starters. Not surprisingly, given those numbers, the home team won both this season's previous h2h meetings between these starters. When Lauer and Steele opposed each other at Chicago, the Cubs won 8-7. However, when today's starters faced each other here at Milwaukee, the Brewers won 9-1. Lauer would strike out 11 through seven strong innings. More of the same this afternoon. 

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the run-line (+1.5 runs) I lost with the Reds yesterday. In hindsight, I believe I was a day too early. Morton's numbers are strong. However, in his most recent start, he walked four batters, while also giving up seven hits, in 5 2/3 innings. That's a lot of baserunners. His previous two starts both resulted in 1-run games. In fact, he's seen six starts, since the start of May, decided by a single run. Admittedly, the Cincy bullpen isn't exactly great. Today's starter generally goes six or more innings though; Atlanta won't be happy to see him. Castillo was excellent last time out; he struck out 11 over six shutout innings. He hasn't allowed more than four runs all season and he's seen four of his past eight starts decided by a single run. Castillo has dominated the Braves each of the past two times that he's faced them, tossing 13 shutout innings. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Cubs rallied to win yesterday's opener and have now won a few in a row. I expect the Red Sox to bring them back down to earth this evening though. Mills has made one start so far this season. While the Cubs managed to somehow win, Mills did NOT pitch well. He's got a 16.85 ERA and 2.622 WHIP for his trouble. While its never wise to read too much into one start, we also shouldn't ignore the fact that he served up three long balls in 2 2/3 innings. On the other hand, Winckowski made three starts in June and he didn't allow a HR in any of them. In fact, he was 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA in those games. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Sox have thrived as road favorites in this range. Expect them to bounce back with an important victory. 

I'm playing CINCINNATI on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Braves pulled away for a big win yesterday. I expect the Reds to provide them with a much tougher test this afternoon. With the exception of one bad start on 5/24, Mahle has quietly been very sharp. He's allowed just 11 combined runs in his past six starts, going at least six complete innings in each of them. Prior to the 5/24 debacle, he'd allowed two runs or less in three straight. So, he's kept the Reds in the game nine of the past 10. He's got a 2.91 ERA his past three. Strider, on the other hand, has an ERA above five on the road. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on SF/Chicago OVER the total. Given the pitching matchup, I feel that this O/U line will prove to be too low. Lynn has made three starts this season. He's been taken deep in each of them and he's got an ERA above six. His WHIP is 2.309 on the road. Cobb has struggled all season. He's got a 5.48 ERA and 1.457 WHIP through 10 starts. Not surprisingly, seven of those finished above the total. While the club struggled in June overall, Chicago is still getting big output from Jose Abreu. Josh Harrison and and Andrew Vaughn. Speaking of Vaughn, he's from close to the Bay Area and he went to school at Cal. He's playing here for the first time as a big leaguer. He commented: "I've been going there since I was old enough to go to a baseball game. Great atmosphere. Tons of special players who were there. It was really cool to have that close to home. When you went and watched him hit, the whole stadium shut down. It didn't matter what was going on, what people were doing. They just stopped. That's what people came to watch. People were there to see Bonds." Look for Vaughn and co to combine with the Giants for enough runs to send this one over the low number. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Phillies won big against the Braves yesterday. The Cardinals enjoyed a much-needed day off yesterday. While the Phillies are playing at home, the Cards are favored for good reason. Note that they're 22-7 their last 29, as road favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Mikolas is in outstanding form. He's got a 1.29 ERA and 0.629 WHIP his past three. On the other hand, Falter has only made three starts. He's got a 4.26 ERA and 1.421 WHIP to show for them. Falter has served up three home runs in his past two outings, too. He's averaged less than five innings over his three starts while Mikolas is averaging seven complete innings over his past three. Cards roll. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I really like how this one sets up for the home team. The Cubs scored eight runs in winning yesterday's opener. They got home runs from both Contreras and Morel. Speaking of HR's, note that Ashcraft has been taken deep three starts in a row; he's got a 6.11 ERA during that 3-game stretch. Note that he's backed by a poor Cincinnati bullpen. Hendricks, on the other hand, did not allow any HR's last game. In fact, he didn't allow any runs, period. He held the Cardinals scoreless through 7 1/3 innings. In terms of pitches thrown per inning, it was his most efficient start of the season. He needed just 12.4 pitches per inning, 91 total through 7+ innings. The only previous time he needed less than 13 pitches per inning was when he had 12.9 pitches per inning in a game against the White Sox. In his very next start, he was brilliant, allowing just three hits through 8 2/3 shutout innings against SD. I say the Hendricks builds off his last start and the Cubs build off yesterday's victory. Cubs win, again. 

I'm playing ARIZONA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) These starters just opposed each other in their last start. Neither was at his best. Playing at home, the Padres won. The Dbax are home for this afternoon's rematch though. Importantly, off yesterday's big comeback, they're also coming in with plenty of momentum. While Clevinger can be tough, he doesn't tend to go deep into games. He has yet to go more than five innings this season. Bumgarner delivered a quality effort (2 runs, 6 innings) in his last start here, a 7-2 win for Arizona. Off three straight losses, the Padres are now 3-4 their last seven. Two of those three wins came by a single run. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing KC on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Rangers won big yesterday but I expect the Royals to respond with a much better effort today. Heasley has a 3.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP at home this season. KC won his last start here by a score of 8-1. Heasley allowed only one hit through seven shutout innings. He didn't walk a batter while striking out seven. Dominant. Admittedly, Gray has been pitching pretty well recently. However, he's still 1-3 with a 4.47 ERA in nine road starts. While Gray has been involved in a few 1-run games since May, each of Heasley's last two starts were decided by a single run. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. 

I'm playing on Wash/Pitt OVER the total. Yesterday's game produced only five runs. I'm confident we'll see at least double that many in this one. Neither of these veteran starters is in top current form. Corbin has served up six home runs in his past three starts alone, a span of only 13 1/3 innings. He's got a 1.95 WHIP during those three starts, nearly two baserunners per inning. Nothing new for Corbin. He's now 14-33 with a 5.76 ERA in his 57 starts. Quintana kept the ball in the park last time out. However, he's still allowed five home runs in his past three starts. He served up three of them in his last road start. Note that Quintana is 0-1 with a 7.88 ERA in two career starts against Washington. Both bullpens are mediocre, at best. Expect this one to hit double-digits. 

I'm playing NY on the run-line (-1.5 runs) Huge favorites on the money-line, we can still get the Yankees at a relatively reasonable price on the run-line. I feel that's the way to go here. The Yanks are off a momentum-building series-ending victory against the Astros. The previous day they were no-hit. Yesterday, they appeared en route to another loss. In fact, for a time, it looked like there was a chance of them becoming the first team to go hitless in consecutive games. They wouldn't have it though and ended up winning, on a Judge walk-off, by a 6-3 score. That's the explosiveness of this lineup. Averaging five runs per game, they take on an Oakland team which averages just slightly over three runs per game. Only the Tigers score fewer runs. Montgomery has gone six or more innings in six straight starts. He's allowed four or fewer earned runs in all of them. Over that 6-game span, he allowed only 11 total runs. His last home start resulted in a 8-0 win. On the other hand, Blackburn got rocked last time out. He gave up seven runs, on 10 hits, in just four innings. He got the better of Montgomery in a game at Oakland last August. This evening, now playing at their home, Montgomery and co. return the favor.

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Tigers took yesterday's game but I fully expect the Dbax to bounce back this evening. Davies has been solid in five straight starts. He allowed no more than four runs in any of them and a total of only 10 earned runs in the 32 inning span. Nothing wrong with that. On the other hand, Faedo has given up 12 runs (11 earned) in his last two starts combined. While they may have "broken out" with five runs yesterday, the Tigers still score fewer runs than any team in baseball. Arizona stops the bleeding. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. (action) I backed the Orioles on Wednesday and they rewarded me with a 7-0 victory over Washington. They followed that up with a 4-0 victory in yesterday's series opener vs. the White Sox. Indeed, they've been getting some great pitching of late. They'll be at a disadvantage in that department in this one though. Kopech gets the call for the Sox and he's got a dominant 1.57 ERA and 0.732 WHIP in six home starts this season. Whether it's Voth, a reliever with an 8.39 ERA and 2.03 WHIP OR Bradish (8.78 ERA, 2.33 WHIP L3 starts) on the mound, the O's won't be able to match Kopech. Prior to yesterday, the Sox had only been shutout once this season. They bounced back from that shutout loss with a big win (7-3 W back on 4/27) and I expect them to do the same in this one. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Guardians have had a good month and so has Zach Plesac. Yesterday, they rallied for a wild 11-10 victory. The venue favors Devin Smeltzer in this afternoon's series finale though. I expect the Twins to bounce back and avoid the sweep. Smeltzer has a stellar 2.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP at home. On the other hand, Plesac has a poor 5.57 ERA in six road starts. Cleveland is 1-3 in Plesac's four career starts vs. the Twins, 0-2 when he's started here at Minnesota. The last time he pitched here, at Minnesota, Plesac was off a gem in his previous start. Yet, he gave up six runs (5 earned) in just 4.2 innings. The last time that they were off three straight losses, the Twins bounced back and won big (9-3) as underdogs, at Toronto. Expect them to snap their skid, once again. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Nationals took yesterday's game but I fully expect the Orioles to return the favor this evening. In six road starts, Corbin has an awful 7.47 ERA and 1.883 WHIP. On the other hand, in five home starts, Lyles has a 2.66 ERA and 0.929 WHIP. Corbin has the support of a Washington bullpen which has a 6.10 ERA on the road. Lyles is backed by a Baltimore bullpen which has a 2.36 ERA at home. The last time that the O's were blanked in their previous game, they bounced back with a 9-2 win the next day. The previous time that they were shutout, they scored 12 in the next game. They'll bounce back with a much better effort again in this one. O's roll. 

I'm playing on Colorado/Miami UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener saw 17 runs scored. However, I don't expect even half that many today. Kuhl has been a profitable 'under' pitcher all season. Nine of his 12 starts, including five of seven on the road, have finished below the total. Kuhl last faced the Marlins last June. That game resulted in a 3-1 final; Kuhl allowed just three hits through six complete. Meanwhile, in two career home starts vs. Colorado, Lopez had 15 K's without walking a batter. He's got a 0.971 WHIP in six home starts this season. Off a rare tough start at NY, expect him to bounce back with a big effort. Prior to yesterday, the Rockies had seen the UNDER go 5-1-1 (or 5-2) their previous seven. Expect another low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Mets are off a win over the Marlins, their fourth victory in five games. They're stepping up in class here though; a road game vs. Houston is a lot tougher than a home game vs. Miami. (The Astros are 94-54 here the past few seasons.) Note that NY lost McNeil to injury yesterday. While it's considered day-to-day, as of this writing, it appears unlikely he'll be ready for this game. Williams goes for the Mets and he's been terrible on the road. In three road starts, he's got a 8.18 ERA. On the other hand, Urquidy has a 2.78 ERA through four home starts. Expect Urquidy and the Astros to take this one. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. I was really impressed with Castano's last effort. Making his first start in over a month, he tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings against Philadelphia. While he didn't get any run support in that one, he should fare better in that department in this one. Feltner has a 4.85 ERA through five starts. While he pitched well against the Marlins, they're now seeing him for the second time in the past few weeks. That should work to the Miami batters' advantage. While the Miami relievers have a respectable 3.64 ERA at home, the Colorado relievers have a poor 5.23 ERA on the road. Marlins roll. 

I'm playing on Toronto. The Jays got back on track yesterday. It was the type of victory that they can build positive momentum from. Not only did they snap NY's 9-game winning streak while also putting an end to their own skid but they also rallied from a 5-run deficit. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's opener at Chicago. It took Berrios a bit to get going but he's now fully found his groove. Over his past three starts, he's 2-0 with a stellar 2.45 ERA and a superb 0.636 WHIP. He averaged better than seven innings in those starts, the Jays going 3-0. It may also take Lynn some time to find his groove. He's only made one start so far and it did not go well. In 4 1/3 innings, he gave up three runs. It could have even been worse, as he gave up a whopping 10 hits over that short span. That translates to a 2.309 WHIP. Expect Berrios to outlast and outpitch Lynn, the Jays building off yesterday's thriller with their second straight victory. 

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Tigers lost a tough one yesterday. With Skubal on the mound, I expect them to bounce back with a much-needed victory this evening. Skubal wasn't his best last time out. That was against a tough Toronto lineup though and he'd been really sharp before that. I'm willing to cut him a little slack. He's still 5-3 with a stellar 2.45 ERA through 12 starts. The Tigers have still won four of his six home starts. On the other hand, Gray is 0-3 with an ugly 5.26 ERA in eight road starts. The Rangers are still 46-96 on the road the past few seasons and that includes a money-burning 11-26 mark when playing a road game with a line in the +125 to -125 range. Skubal delivered a gem the only time that he previously faced Texas. Through six complete innings, he allowed one run on four hits, without walking a batter. The Tigers won that 7/20/21 game by a score of 4-1. They're similarly priced this evening and I expect a similar result. 

I'm playing on Clev/Col OVER the total. I expect the bats to come alive in this one. Pilkington has made four starts since moving from the bullpen. He's been somewhat fortunate with the teams he's faced as his last three starts have come against Oakland, KC and Detroit. In a 30-team league, those teams rank 27th, 29th and 30th, in terms of runs scored per game. Yet, despite the weak opposition, Pilkington still has an ugly 1.811 WHIP in those four starts. He's made one road start and has a horrific 8.11 ERA and 3.303 WHIP to show for it. Speaking of horrific, Gomber has a 13.87 ERA and 2.271 WHIP his past three starts. In his last start here, he gave up nine runs in five innings. The final score was 13-6. In fact, four of his past six starts have finished with 13 or more runs. On a warm evening, I see this one doing the same. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Mets have been providing Peterson with a lot of run support. They've scored 13, 13 and 9 runs in his past three starts and they've scored at least five runs in each of his past six starts. That streak figures to stop right here. Burnes has allowed one run or less in three of his past four starts and he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of their past 11. Burnes has a 1.42 ERA and 0.868 WHIP on the road. Peterson, on the other hand, has a 4.50 ERA and 1.571 WHIP at home. Burnes averages more than six innings per road start, Peterson averages less than five innings per road start. Burnes tossed a gem against the Mets last September, striking out nine over seven innings. The Brewers won 2-1. I see them bouncing back with a much-needed victory in this one. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. While the Twins took yesterday's series opener, I like how this one sets up for the Mariners. Both starters have excellent numbers. However, while Gilbert is making his third start in June, Ryan will be making his first start since 5/21, as he had tested positive for Covid. It may be tough to find his rhythm, after the break. Either way, Ryan is unlikely to get much run support. Gilbert has been absolutely getting it done. His last five starts have all been quality. He's got a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts, all of them Seattle victories. Ryan walked four in four innings when he saw Seattle on 4/8. The next day, on 4/9, Gilbert held the Twins to one run, through five innings. He struck out seven and walked one. The M's won both those games. Healthier than their guests, expect the M's to bounce back and take this one, too. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Rangers are off b2b "wild" victories. I expect the Astros to bring them back down to earth. The Astros snapped their 3-game skid yesterday. The nine runs scored, on 14 hits, provides the hitters with momentum and confidence. Having gotten seven innings from Verlander, the Astros didn't have to use up their bullpen either. (Houston relievers have a combined 2.63 ERA.) The Rangers, on the other hand, used five relievers yesterday after also using five relievers the previous day. The Astros are 8-3 as road favorites in the -125 to -175 range. They're also 14-6 in 20 games vs. southpaw starters. Javier has a 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Not outstanding but much better than Hearn's 5.40 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. The Astros have won three of Javier's four starts against Texas and he pitched well in the lone loss. They're also 2-0 against Hearn this season. More of the same here. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Rangers rallied to take yesterday's game. However, I expect the Sox to return the favor on Sunday afternoon. Kopech (2-2) could easily have a better record. Through 10 starts, he's got an excellent 1.94 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. In five home starts, his ERA dips to 1.61 and his WHIP falls to 0.75. On the other hand, Gray has an ugly 5.94 ERA (1.38 WHIP) in seven road starts. Last time out, Gray got roughed up at Cleveland. In five innings, he gave up five runs, walking more (4) than he struck out. Meanwhile, Kopech limited the Dodgers to a single hit, through six shutout innings, striking out eight while walking only one. Even with yesterday's victory, the Rangers are still 36-59 in their last 95 day games. Chicago bounces back. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers are badly in need of a victory and this afternoon's all-southpaw affair should be a great place to get one. While the Brewers came up short in his last start, Lauer personally pitched well. He's 5-1 with a stellar 2.35 ERA through this season's first 10 starts. On the other hand, Corbin is 2-8 with an ugly 6.71 ERA and a 1.757 WHIP. The Nationals are 2-10 when he takes the mound. Speaking of 2-10, prior to scoring the upset yesterday, the Nats were also 2-10 the past 12 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. They're still a money-burning 10-27 their past 37 in that role. Lauer has previously gotten the better of Corbin when the two went h2h and the Brewers are 7-2 the last nine times that they saw Corbin. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing KC on the run-line (+1.5 runs) With the visitors favored on the money line, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the home team for roughly a pick'em price. With the Royals looking to avoid the sweep, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Kikuchi goes for the Jays and he served up three HR's, in only 4 2/3 innings, last time out. Toronto lost 9-3. (His previous two starts were both 1-run games.) KC has faced Kikuchi four times, all four games coming while he was with the Mariners. The Royals won three of four and the other was a 1-run loss. The most recent time Kikuchi pitched here was last September. He gave up eight hits in just three innings. The Royals won 8-1. Singer goes for the Royals. He's got a solid 3.32 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in three home starts, averaging better than six innings. While the Royals are 5-4 his last nine starts, two of the losses were by a single run. So, they'd be 7-2 in those games, if getting +1.5 in each. Singer has made one start vs. the Jays and it was a beauty. Last spring, he held them to two hits through six shutout innings. KC won 2-0. I'm expecting AT LEAST another "run-line cover" this afternoon.

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pirates may have won a few games lately but they're still a weak team. The Tigers are going to be happy to see them. The Tigers haven't hit well. Most of the teams which they face are much stronger at the plate. The Pirates are on their level though. They, too, rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. This evening, I believe Detroit's edge will be on the mound. Admittedly, Quintana has been very solid for Pittsburgh. He's got a 2.32 ERA and 1.232 WHIP. However, Skubal has been even better for Detroit. He's got a 1.84 ERA and 0.937 WHIP. On the road, his ERA dips down to an outstanding 1.57. In his last three starts, averaging better than six innings, Skubal has a 1.42 ERA and a dominant 0.684 WHIP. On the other hand, Quintana has a 1.65 WHIP his last three, averaging only 4.3 innings. The Pirate bullpen has been respectable. Pittsburgh relievers have a 4.03 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. They've converted 66.7% of their save chances. The Tigers have them beat in all categories though. Detroit relievers have a 2.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and they've converted 76.5% of their save chances. The Pirates are 14-28 in IL play the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Tigers are 25-21. With the Pirates just 37-63 the past 100 times that they were off a win, I say the Tigers bounce back. 

I'm playing on LA. Very tough loss for the Angels yesterday. I believe it was the bottom-point and that they finally snap their skid today. Both starters have been much better at home. Syndergaard is 1-3 with an ugly 7.88 ERA on the road but 3-0 with a dominant 1.48 ERA at home. Opposing batters are hitting .184 against him here, as opposed to .348 on the road. Meanwhile, Wacha has a dominant 0.86 ERA in four home starts but a mediocre 4.12 mark on the road. Not surprisingly, given Wacha and Syndergaard's home/road stats, the Sox won when these starters opposed each other at Fenway. (Syndergaard still delivered a quality start and did outlast Wacha.) Venue flipped, I say Syndergaard and the Angels return the favor.

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Padres have had their way with the Brewers the past couple of days but I expect that to change this afternoon. Off b2b road starts, Lauer will be happy to return home. He's 3-0 with a dominant 0.90 ERA here. The Brewers won those games by scores of 7-0, 9-1 and 6-1, a combined score of 22-2. While Clevinger can be tough, he hasn't started since 5/17 and he has yet to go more than five innings. The Brewers are 24-11 vs. right-handers and 4-1 the past five times that they were off as shutout loss. Expect them to bounce back and salvage the series split. 

I'm playing LA on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Enough is enough. Off yesterday's 10-0 loss and on an extended losing streak, I expect the Angels to bounce back with their best effort this evening. Yes, Wheeler has been pitching well. The same can be said of Lorenzen though. He's delivered three consecutive quality start. The Angels won two of those and the other was a 1-run loss. He was 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.915 WHIP over that 20 2/3 inning span. Note that Wheeler throws a lot of innings and that he's had one less day's worth of rest than Lorenzen. Also, note that the Phillies are 0-5 the past five times that their opponent allowed five or more runs in its previous game. I say the Angels bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing on SF/Miami UNDER the total. While these teams combined for a whopping 21 runs yesterday, I'm expecting an entirely different type of game this afternoon. Remember, Thursday's opener only produced three combined runs. We've got a pair of very capable starters on the mound for this one. Lopez gets the call for the home team and he's been excellent. Through 10 starts, he's got a 1.98 ERA and 0.983 WHIP. Last time out, despite pitching at Colorado, he tossed six shutout innings. He faced the Giants earlier this season and the final score was 2-1. That was at SF. The last time he faced the Giants here at Miami, the final score was 1-0. The only run scored in the entire game was unearned. In fact, all four of Lopez's career starts vs. the Giants have finished with fewer than seven combined runs. The Giants scored 1, 2, 1 and 2 runs in those four games. Consistent Logan Webb goes for the visitors. Webb struck out 10 in eight innings last game. His last four starts have been at Philadelphia, at Colorado, at St. Louis and vs. the Mets. Four tough games. Yet, Webb allowed three or fewer runs in each while averaging nearly seven innings. He'll be happy to see the Marlins. In two starts vs. Miami, he's allowed just one run through 13 combined innings. Don't be surprised when this one stays below the number. 

I'm playing on Seattle/Texas UNDER the total. The Mariners are off a high-scoring series against the Orioles. Back into divisional action, I expect pitching take center stage tonight. These starters already opposed each other, back on 4/20. That game, at Seattle, finished with a score of 4-2. Gilbert has been outstanding overall and particularly on the road. In six road starts, he's got a superb 2.04 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Dunning, for his part, has been solid at home, much better than on the road.. In five starts here, he's got a 3.77 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. Last time here, he limited the Angels to two runs, on only three hits, through six complete innings. Expect a well-pitched affair. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Tough spot for the Rockies. They just played a long double-header yesterday. After getting pounded 14-1 in the opener, they rallied for a 13-12 victory in the second game. It was less than a week ago that they followed up a DH with a loss the next day; they were 0-2 in May in that situation. After dropping the first two games of their series at Arizona, the Braves earned a 6-0 victory to avoid the sweep yesterday. I expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's game. Anderson has pitched well on the road; he's got a 2.79 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in five road starts. He's allowed four or fewer earned runs in eight straight starts. On the other hand, Gomber allowed eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings last time out. That's the type of outing which can shake one's confidence. The Rockies are 0-4 the past four times that he took the mound. Now, he'll face an Atlanta team which is 11-6 vs. southpaws. It all sets up for a "W" for the visitors. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Rangers have taken the first two games of this series. However, I expect the Rays to bounce back this afternoon. Today's starters, Kluber and Hearn, opposed each other last September. Kluber's team (pitched for NY at the time) won 8-3. With Kluber currently in better form than Hearn, I expect his team to again have the edge. While Kluber has a 3.00 ERA and stingy 0.900 WHIP his last three starts, Hearn has a 5.52 ERA and an ugly 1.704 WHIP. In fact, those are pretty much equal to his season numbers; he's got a 5.35 ERA and 1.636 WHIP on the season. So, he's allowing a lot of baserunners. He's also served up four home runs in his last three starts, including two in four inings in his last home start. With this being a day game, note that Kluber has a 1.82 ERA in five daytime starts as opposed to a 6.75 ERA in four starts under the lights. Rays respond. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Phillies have endured some tough losses of late. It's a new month though. With a starter in much better current form, I expect them to bounce back and start it with a victory. While his W/L record may not show it, Nola has been going deep into games and dominating hitters. Last time out, he struck out 10 Atlanta batters (0 walks) while giving up just one run through 8 1/3 innings. In fiv home starts, he's got an outstanding 0.768 WHIP. Over his last three starts overall, he's got a stingy 0.823 WHIP. On the other hand, Rodon has a 2.000 WHIP his last three starts. He's 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA during that span. Look for Nola to get the better of Rodon, the Phillies moving to 9-6 their last 15 vs. southpaws. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Javier has made 10 starts since the beginning of last season. His team was 4-6 in those games. A closer look reveals that six of those 10 games, including three of the wins, were decided by a single run. In other words, his team would be 1-9 his last 10 starts, if being asked to lay -1.5 runs in each. This season, Javier has an ugly 9.34 ERA and 1.961 WHIP on the road. On the other hand, Montas has a stingy 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in seven home starts, averaging 6.4 innings in each. In fact, he's got a dominant 1.23 ERA and 0.75 WHIP his past three starts. Last time out, he allowed a single unearned run, on just three hits, through seven complete innings, while striking out 11. His last start against Houston resulted in a 14-2 win. Expect AT LEAST the 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Reds are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off yesterday's 10-0 blowout loss to Baltimore, the BoSox are going to be an angry team today. The Reds, 7-19 on the road and 11-21 against right-handers, just happen to be the team which is getting in their way. The Sox, 27-15 their last 42 IL games, send Wacha to the mound. He's 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in seven starts. The Sox are 6-1 in those games. He's been at his best here at Fenway, too. In three home starts, all Boston wins, he's got a 1.17 ERA. While I respect Castillo, he's 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA, 0-2 in two road starts. The Reds have only scored six runs in his last three starts and their relievers have a combined 4.82 ERA. While the Sox hit for the second best combined average (.262) in baseball, the Reds (.226) rank #26 in that category. I say the Sox bounce back. 

I'm playing on SF/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Yesterday's game resulted in the pitcher's duel which I expected. Unfortunately, it got to extra innings and things got funny from there. They only had four runs into the ninth inning but finished with nine. That won't prevent me from pulling the trigger on this generous total though. Junis has been very stingy and he checks in off another quality start. He held the Mets to two runs, on only three hits, through six complete innings. While Suarez struggled a bit at Atlanta last game, he'd allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past 14 starts. Don't be surprised when this one proves lower-scoring than expected. 

I'm playing on Cleveland. The Guardians lost yesterday but I expect them to bounce right back to start this series against the Royals. Plesac has been considerably better here at home. He's got a respectable 3.52 ERA in four starts here. On the other hand, Heasley has a 4.73 ERA through his three starts and a horrific 2.161 WHIP through his two road starts. The Royals are 0-3 when he's taken the mound. In addition to the fact that he gave up two HR's in five innings last time out, walks continue to be a real issue for Heasley. He walked six last game and has now walked 13 in 13 1/3 innings. Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 in Plesac's four career home starts vs. KC. Plesac allowed just seven combined runs through the four starts, striking out 19 against just four walks. Cleveland rolls. 

I'm playing on SF/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Last night's loss with the Phillies 'under' was a tough one but that won't prevent me from pulling the trigger this afternoon. Webb is 5-1 with a 3.54 ERA on the season. His ERA dips to 3.00 his past three starts. He allowed just six combined runs in those three starts; he hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in a start in ages. Gibson has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his past six starts. Six of this season's nine starts have stayed below the total. He's been much better at home, too. In four starts here, three of which finished beneath the total, Gibson has a stellar 2.22 ERA and 0.863 WHIP. I feel that the O/U line is generous and I'm expecting another relatively well-pitched affair.

I'm playing on Philadelphia/NY UNDER the total. These teams combined for 10 runs yesterday, after scoring 14 the previous day. However, I'm expecting a far lower-scoring game this evening. Wheeler will be happy this is a night game. He's had some trouble in afternoon games but is 2-1 with a stellar 1.72 ERA under the lights. He's also been excellent his past two starts, striking out 19 without walking a batter. In that 13 2/3 inning stretch, he allowed just two runs. While I did play against the Mets the last time that Bassitt started, that was against a SF team which had previously hurt him. Here, he'll face a team which held the Phillies to one run through 5 1/3 innings, when he saw them earlier. That game finished with seven combined runs. Meanwhile, Wheeler's last four starts vs. the Mets had scores of 2-0, 4-3, 3-0 and 4-2. Not surprisingly, all four of those games fell below the number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. These starters opposed each other in their last start. Bieber was arguably stronger. He allowed two earned runs through seven complete innings, striking out 10. Faedo also allowed two earned runs. However, he only struck out two and he lasted 5 1/3 innings. Both allowed six hits but Faedo allowed a HR while Bieber did not. Yet, the Tigers managed to win that game, 4-3. This afternoon, I expect Bieber and co. to return the favor. Faedo has still only made four big league starts and now he's facing a team for the second time in a row; the first time that any team will have seen him twice. Bieber has been outstanding on the road. Most recently he limited Minnesota to one run through six complete. The Tigers are still 48-83 in divisional play the past 2+ seasons; I say the Guardians bounce back and take this one. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Yankees grabbed yesterday's opener. With southpaw Springs on the mound, I expect the Rays to return the favor this evening. Springs has been superb, since moving to the starting rotation. Manager Kevin Cash noted this of Springs: "We just like his stuff, like the way it's playing, like the way he's bouncing back. Definitely the changeup is kind of the equalizer to the righties, and being left-handed helps against the lefties." Indeed, Spring has a stellar 2.12 ERA across four starts. He's allowed four runs and 11 hits (.186 batting average) in 17 innings, striking out 16 strikeouts along the way. In two home starts, Springs' ERA dips all the way down to 1.23. TB won those games by scores of 3-0 and 2-1. Note that Springs didn't walk a batter in either start. Taillon has enjoyed success against the Rays, when facing them at home. However, his lone start here at Tampa resulted in a 9-1 loss last May. After giving up four runs in 4 2/3 innings in that game, Taillon commented: "...The hits in big situations tell you that I didn’t make the right pitch at the right time..." I say the Rays bounce back. 

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. I like how this one sets up for the Cardinals. They had yesterday off, after having lost Wednesday. The Brewers, on the other hand, played at San Diego yesterday. So, they've got both the schedule and venue in their favor. They've also got Adam Wainwright on the mound. The Cards' veteran is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA his past three starts. In that 20 inning span, Wainwright allowed only three total runs on just eight combined hits. While Lauer has also been solid, he gave up three HR's, in just five innings, in his last road start. Speaking of HR's allowed, in Lauer's only previous "May" start (May 2018) against the Cards, he served up four HR's in only 2 1/3 innings. The Cards hit for a better average and score more runs. Expect them to bounce back. 

I'm playing on SF. Off last night's blowout loss and having now dropped five straight, I expect the Giants to finally bounce back and stop the bleeding. The Giants, 7-3 the past 10 times that they allowed 10 or more runs in their previous game, send Logan Webb to the mound. They're 6-2 in his eight starts, a perfect 4-0 in his four home starts. In fact, they're actually a remarkable 18-1 his past 19 starts here. The lone loss (2-1 final) was a mid-October showdown against the Dodgers. Admittedly, Bassitt has also been pitching well. However, while Webb has allowed one home run in his past four starts combined, Bassitt has served up four in his past four games. Last time out, he gave up nine hits and was taken deep twice. By comparison, Webb has only given up two HR's in his last 14 starts combined. They both came on the road, at favorable hitters parks, too. That last start by Bassitt, the one where he gave up nine hits and 2 HR's, marked the first time where he'd faced an opponent for the second time, this season. (Remember, he'd spent his career in the AL.) Now, he'll be facing SF for the second time. I say the Giants get to him. A closer, they did get eight hits (1 HR) and score five runs against him last month. That marked Bassitt's worst start this season. Look for SF to bounce back, the Mets falling to 10-15 their past 25 road games, when the O/U line was seven or less. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates got embarrassed yesterday. Motivated by that 18-4 beating, I expect them to bounce back and start the new week and series with a victory. For starters, the Rockies aren't as good as the Cardinals. They're 45-80 away from Colorado the past few seasons. Also, I expect the Pirates to enjoy an advantage on the mound. While the Pirates didn't give him any run support and hurt him with bad defense, Brubaker was quietly really sharp last time out. Better than his stat-line suggests. Though 5 2/3 innings, he struck out 10 batters. Teammate Michael Chavis commented: "As soon as I saw Shelty [manager Derek Shelton] coming out to pull him, you feel bad. You see the dude throw so well, you want him to have good results. It was just kind of unlucky. He looked great. Just sucks." Brubaker, meanwhile, had this to say: "I felt good. Finally felt like I was getting back to where I was in Spring Training, earlier in the year after being sick. Strength, energy, everything was clicking on time. It felt like it was all back." Brubaker, who has received a grand total of three runs in his past three starts, should finally get some support. Kuhl is 0-2 (team is 0-3) and has an ugly 7.24 ERA and 1.756 WHIP his past three starts. Pirates bounce back. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Arizona has "gotten healthy" here but now it's the Cubs' turn to stop the bleeding. Miley was superb last time out. He allowed just one hit through seven shutout innings. He recorded six K's without walking a batter. The Cubs won 9-0. On the other hand, Kelly allowed eight runs in his last start, a span of only two innings. Walking four batters didn't help matters. Arizona lost 12-3. While that was against the Dodgers, the Dbax lost his previous start by a score of 11-3 and that was against Miami. The Dbax are still 40-92 on the road the past 2+ seasons. I say the Cubs bounce back. 

I'm playing on SF. The Padres won a wild one last night but I expect the Giants to return the favor this afternoon. Note that SF is 58-38 in day games the past 2+ seasons compared to a 46-43 mark for SD. During that span, the Padres were 66-67 on the road compared to SF's 83-50 mark at home. It's true that Musgrove has been pitching very well. However, his his road numbers are no better than Rodon's home numbers. (He's got a 2.52 ERA on the road compared to Rodon's 2.12 mark at home.) While Rodon had a rare bad road outing last time out, his previous three starts were quality and he'd allowed two or fewer earned runs in 13 straight. Given that type of consistency, I'm willing to cut him some slack for one bad outing. One thing I really like is that the Giants are very familiar with Musgrove while this will be Rodon's first start vs. the Padres. Musgrove made five starts against SF in 2021 alone. Speaking of 2021, Musgrove's was 1-3 with a 3.78 ERA in his daytime starts last year compared to 10-6 with a 2.93 ERA under the lights. I say Rodon and the Giants bounce back. 

I'm playing BALTIMORE on the RL. (+1.5 runs) The Orioles got back on track yesterday. Their 9-6 victory over the Yankees snapped a 6-game skid. Losing streak in the rear-view mirror, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's opener vs. Tampa. The Rays are off b2b big (home) wins over the Tigers. They've dropped three of their last four on the road though and two of their last four road wins have come by a single run. Wells goes for the O's and he's quietly been fantastic here at home. In three starts here, he's got a 1.20 ERA and a 0.933 WHIP. The O's won his last start here by a score of 6-1 and his previous start here was a 2-1 loss. One thing I really like about Wells is that he hasn't walked a single batter in any of his last five starts. Meanwhile, Beeks is expected to go for Tampa. While he's been effective out of the bullpen, he hasn't made a big league start since 2019, when he lost 7-2. With Tampa favored on the ML, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the O's for a very reasonable price. Though we may not need them, I feel that's the way to go. While the Rays have certainly had their way with the O's, I see Baltimore finally breaking through in this one. Grab the extra +1.5 runs and expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing on St. Louis/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. This O/U line has climbed from its opener and I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Adam Wainwright gets the call. The Ageless One has a 2.37 ERA and 0.842 WHIP his past three starts, averaging better than six innings. Thompson has also been sharp lately. In fact, he's got a 2.35 ERA and 0.718 WHIP his past three and a 0.00 ERA his past two starts. Speaking of shutouts, Wainwright hasn't allowed a single run in any of his last three starts vs. Pittsburgh. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Diamondbacks are desperate for a victory and they've got the right guy on the mound. Gallen has been outstanding this season. Averaging nearly six innings per start, he's got a spectacular 1.05 ERA and 0.67 WHIP through six innings. While facing the same team twice in a row can sometimes be challenging, I believe Gallen is up for the task. He's already faced the Mets in b2b starts and he was just fine in both. Keep in mind that he limited the Cubs to only two hits, while striking out nine, in last week's start. So, they weren't exactly getting good swings against him. Gallen now has 21 K's vs. only one walk, over his past three starts. Yesterday, we went against a 'big name' pitcher (Snell) who was making his first start. Here's another relatively big name in Stroman, who will be making his first start in a while. Stroman last pitched on 5/1. While he was pitching well before he went down to injury, note that he's 0-1 with a 7.72 ERA in two home starts. The Cubs are just 7-17 under the lights. Dbax bounce back. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Off b2b losses and having fallen below .500, the Phillies badly need to get back on track. With Wheeler on the mound, I expect them to do so. In four home starts, Wheeler has a dominant 1.93 ERA and 0.943 WHIP. He's got a 1.42 ERA his past three starts. On the other hand, Snell will be making his first start of the season. Needless to say, he won't be going the distance. The SD bullpen has been nothing special (4.45 ERA, 5 blown saves) on the road. Including a 4-3 loss to the Phillies last August, the Padres are just 1-5 the past six times that Snell took the mound. The Phils are 29-19 the past few seasons as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. I successfully played on the Jays yesterday. I began my writeup by saying the following: "Off a tough road trip, the Jays are going to be pleased to return home. After having just struggled against the Yankees and the Rays, they'll also be happy to host a team from outside the AL East ..." The Jays rewarded me with a 6-2 victory. I now expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Berrios is better than his numbers indicate. Yes, he's struggled his past couple of road starts. However, he was sharp in each of his last two starts here at Toronto. Last time here, he limited Houston to one run through 5 2/3 innings. The Jays won 2-1. In his previous home start, he held Boston to two runs through seven complete innings. The Jays won 6-2. Yes, his numbers are impressive but Gilbert has come back down to earth recently; he's got a 5.17 ERA and 1.468 WHIP his last three starts. The Jays roughed up Gilbert when they saw him last August, too. He lasted only four innings and gave up eight hits (2 HRs) and five earned runs. Toronto won 8-3. Expect another victory for the Jays in this one. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Rangers got on track in a big way yesterday. I expect them to carry the positive momentum from that 7-1 victory into this evening's opener vs. the Angels. LA has been playing well and sits on top of the division. With Syndergaard on the mound, they're favored on the moneyline. That means we can get the Rangers at a very fair price on the run-line. Though we may not need those extra +1.5 runs, they also could prove invaluable. Note that Gray's last start was a 1-0 loss. He limited the Yankees to only two hits through 4 2/3 shutout innings. Prior to the 1-0 loss vs. NY, Texas won 6-4 (against Philadelphia) in Gray's previous start. Speaking of Gray, he's going to be fired up to make his first home start. All five of this season's starts have been on the road. While Syndergaard is indeed tough, the Angels have lost two of his past three starts. He's given up HR's in b2b games and the Rangers had a look at him last month. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with the Rangers and expecting AT LEAST the 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on Washington/Miami UNDER the total. While the Marlins have seen four of their past five finish above the total, I'm expecting this one to result in a pitcher's duel. Alcantara averages better than six innings per start and he's got a stingy 2.79 ERA on the season. Last time out, he allowed just two hits and only one run, while tossing seven complete innings. While its true that Alcantara will go with one less day's rest than normal, it's also true that he's had some recent success against Washington. In his last two starts against the Nationals, he's allowed a combined one run through 14 innings. Over that 14-inning span, he gave up only seven hits, while striking out 12. Scores were 5-2 and 3-0. In fact, his past five starts vs. Washington have all finished below the total. Prior to the 5-2 and 3-0 games, the previous three had scores of 5-1, 2-1 and 3-1. Sanchez, who limited the Mets to three runs last game, goes for the Nats and he'll be happy to face Miami. He was 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA vs. the Marlins last season, most recently earning a 3-0 win on 4/22. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. After dropping the first two games of this series, I expect the Rangers to be "all business" this afternoon. I also expect Martin Perez to provide them with an advantage on the mound. Perez has quietly been pitching extremely well. Last time out, he allowed only one run through 6 1/3 innings. Through six starts on the season, averaging nearly six innings per, he's got a stellar 2.10 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. In his three daytime starts, his WHIP dips to a dominant 0.76. Speaking of "dominant," his ERA is now 0.89 over his past three starts. Over that 20+ inning stretch, he allowed only two combined earned runs. It's also worth noting that Perez hasn't allowed a single home run this entire season. He'll face a Boston team which is just 3-9 the past 12 times it was off a victory and only 46-54 its last 100 against southpaws. Expect the Rangers to bounce back.

I'm playing on Toronto/Tampa OVER the total. Yesterday's game was low-scoring but I'm expecting the offense to come alive in this one. Both teams hit left-handers well and both today's southpaws are hittable. Ryu hasn't started in nearly a month; he last pitched on 4/16. He checks in with an awful 13.51 ERA and 1.774 WHIP. Yarbrough pitched well last time out but he's still got a 6.14 ERA and 1.91 WHIP through his two starts. The Jays bats are too good to stay quiet and the Rays figure to get to Ryu, who has yet to make it past the fourth inning. Dating back to last season, Ryu's last six starts have had combined scores of 12, 18, 16, 9, 10 and 21. That's an average of more than 14 runs per game. Don't be surprised when this one hits "double-digits."

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Obviously, the Yankees are off to a great start. As per usual, they've got a loaded lineup. That said, the Sox are favored for good reason in this one. Not only do the Sox have the venue in their favor, they've also got a scheduling advantage. While the Yankees are off a big divisional win yesterday, over this season's primary rival, the Sox had the day off. The Sox, now 26-12 in May the past 2+ seasons, are 26-15 during that span, when playing with a day off. Perhaps more important than having the schedule or venue in their favor, the Sox should also enjoy a significant edge on the mound. Cease is nasty and he's currently in excellent form. In three home starts this season, he's averaged better than six innings while compiling a dominant 1.45 ERA and 0.643 WHIP. I backed the Sox in his last start here; Cease allowed just one hit through seven shutout innings, striking out 11. On the other hand, Gil's most recent "big league" start was an 11-3 loss last September. He's coming off a decent start at Triple-AAA but I don't expect him to be able to match Cease. Expect the Sox to temporarily cool off their guests. 

I'm playing on Oakland/Detroit OVER the total. These teams played a DH against each other. While both games stayed below the total, each had plenty of hits. The teams had 16 hits in the first game and 15 in the second. Both bullpens were used quite a lot, particularly in Game 2. We're working with a low O/U number and I expect to see 'more efficient' offense in this one. Wentz makes his first big league start. He had a 4.12 ERA in five minor league starts this season. Last season, he was 0-7 in the minors with a 4.50 ERA, after posting a 4.20 ERA there the previous season. Logue, meanwhile, has made only one start. He gave up two HR's in five innings. On a nice warm evening, with two inexperienced starters, expect the final combined score to finish above the low total. 

I'm playing on Clev/Chicago UNDER the total. Last night's game got a bit crazy in the late innings. However, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair this evening. Giolito is tough. He's off b2b quality starts and has a 3.20 ERA on the season. He's recorded 17 K's in his past two starts. The last time that he faced Cleveland, Giolito tossed six shutout innings. Quantrill is no slouch either. In fact, despite facing some tough teams, he's off three straight quality starts. He's got a 3.12 ERA through three road starts. His two 2021 starts against Chicago finished with scores of 2-1 and 3-1. Look for "more of the same" in this one. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. This is a great situational spot for the Mariners. They played a single game here yesterday afternoon, a non-divisional affair against the Rays. On the other hand, the Phillies played a double-header against division rival NY. Then, after playing those two big games, they had to fly all the way across the country. The pitching matchup also favors the M's. Flexen has allowed only four earned runs in his last three starts combined, while averaging better than six innings per start. Over that 18 2/3 inning stretch, he's got a stellar 1.93 ERA and a 1.018 WHIP. In two home starts this season, he's got a 0.93 WHIP. On the other hand, Suarez has a 4.63 ERA and 1.648 WHIP through five starts, as he has yet to find his form. Last time out, he served up five runs (3 earned) in five innings. That's more than Flexen allowed in his last three. The Phillies are 3-7 on the road this season and 49-72 the past 2+ seasons. They're also 17-28 in IL play, during that span. Schedule in their favor, expect the M's to finish on top.

I'm playing on SEATTLE. (action) This is a big day for Mariner fans. Bigtime prospect George Kirby will be making his first start. Kirby, 24, is a former first-round pick (20th overall) and he's the No. 11 prospect in all of baseball, according to Baseball America. In 24 2/3 minor league innings this season, he's recorded 32 K's while going 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA. Not only can he throw hard, he's got pinpoint control. As manager Servais noted: "He's got a really good fastball. But the velocity in our league, it really doesn't scare people off. You have to have the secondary weapons, and he's really focused on that." I expect Kirby to get some decent support. In his lone start this season, Yarbrough gave up six hits and five earned runs, while also walking three, in just 2 1/3 innings. That translates to a terrible 19.31 ERA and 3.863 WHIP. I say the M's bounce back and start the "new era" with a victory. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds are slight favorites. I believe they could be considerably bigger favorites. That may sound funny, given the Reds' terrible record. However, when we take a look at the matchup, you'll start to see what I mean. Mahle has a respectable 3.95 ERA in three home starts. Thompson, on the other hand, has a terrible 15.00 ERA and 3.50 WHIP in his three road starts. Overall, he's 0-3 with a 10.05 ERA in his four starts. The Pirates have lost his last three starts by a combined score of 34-4! His team is 2-12 the past 14 times that Thompson started. Look for the Reds to take advantage of the favorable matchup, as the Pirates fall to 33-67 their last 100 "day" games. 

I'm playing on SF. With the Giants badly in need of a victory, Logan Webb gets the call. That should be a comforting though to SF fans. The Giants are 4-1 with Webb on the mound this season, a perfect 3-0 here at home. In those three home starts, Webb has a 2.25 ERA, averaging nearly seven innings per outing. Remember, he was 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home last season. The Giants haven't lost a "regular season" home game started by Webb in ages. Matz pitched well against the Royals last time out but he's still got a mediocre 4.56 ERA and 1.436 WHIP on the season. He's face a SF team which is 46-32 against southpaws, the past 2+ seasons. Enough's enough. Expect the Giants to bounce back. 

I'm playing on Minnesota/Oakland OVER the total. While we didn't see much scoring last night, I expect the bats to come alive this afternoon. Kaprielian lasted only two innings in his lone start; he's got a 18.00 ERA and 3.50 WHIP to show for it. That game finished with "double-digits." Seven of his last 10 starts, since last season, have finished with a minimum of nine combined runs. Gray hasn't been good either. He's got a 5.68 ERA through two starts and will be returning from injury in this one. I feel that the number could easily be a little higher and I look for the final score to prove higher than some will be expecting. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Off yesterday's 8-0 loss, I expect the Red Sox to bounce back with a big effort today. Eovaldi gets the call and he's been excellent. Through five starts, he's got a 2.51 ERA and 0.942 WHIP. Over his past three starts, he's got an outstanding 1.45 and 0.857 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed only three hits through seven shutout innings. In his previous start, he also went seven innings. Eovaldi's lone start against the White Sox last season saw him strike out 10, without walking a batter, en route to an 11-4 win. While Eovaldi hasn't gotten much run support, he should get some today. Velasquez may have been solid in his last start but he's typically pretty inconsistent. He got rocked (13.51 ERA, 2.703 WHIP!) in his lone road start and he's got a 4.58 ERA and 1.471 WHIP on the season overall. The Red Sox pounded Velasquez here last season, too. He lasted only 2 1/3 innings and gave up eight earned runs. Boston took him deep three times and won 11-5. Boston bounces back. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. *top May NL East play. The Phillies badly need a victory here and Nola figures to be the right guy for the job. Last time out, facing these same Mets at NY, he struck out nine without walking a single batter. In his previous start, he struck out nine against one walk. Over his past three starts, he's got a stellar 2.45 ERA and 0.873 WHIP, while averaging six complete innings. Yet, he's 0-2 in those games. This will be just Walker's third start of the season. All three starts have come against the Phillies. He's still only thrown a total of seven innings in the two starts combined. While he went only two innings in this season's earlier start here, the last time (8/8/21) that Walker pitched more than a few innings (he went six) here at Philadelphia, he served up three Home Runs. Nola's pitching better than his record suggests and Walker's still working his way back. The Philly bullpen has a 3.42 ERA at home and 1.16 WHIP. (The Mets' relievers have a 3.94 ERA on the road and a 1.33 WHIP.) Look for a big effort from the Phillies in this one as they bounce back and improve to 16-8 the past 24 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I won with the Astros yesterday, stating that they would be happy to be done with the Jays and on to the Mariners. Off their 3-0 victory, I'm coming right back with them again today. The Astros have already had a look at Flexen this season. Note that he's 0-2 on the road with an ERA above four. Javier will be happy to see Seattle. His last start against the M's saw him toss seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits. Houston won 2-0. His only other start against the M's was just as good. In that one, he allowed just one hit through six shutout innings. Houston won 2-1. Javier is backed by a Houston bullpen which has a stellar 1.24 ERA at home thus far. The Astros are now 37-19 their last 56 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Astros will be happy to be done with the Jays. They've dominated the Mariners over the years and I expect them to bounce back and start this series off with a victory. These same two starters opposed each other on 4/15, at Seattle. Gonzales and the Mariners won big. However, this evening's remach is at Houston and Odorizzi has since "gotten it together." Last time out, he allowed only one hit through six complete innings. The 4/15 loss notwithstanding, the Astros have been enjoying success against southpaw starters so far this season. Their relievers have been outstanding (1.35 ERA) at home, too. They're 5-0 the last five times that they were listed as home favorites with Odorizzi on themound. They won those games by a combined score of 42-12. Expect another victory in this one. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Off yesterday's 6-5 win, the Angels have taken two of the first three in the series. With Cease on the mound for this afternoon's finale, I expect the Sox to salvage the series split. No question, Sandoval has been great. That said, he's still only thrown four innings on the road this season and he's got a 1.50 WHIP to show for it. His lone start against the Sox resulted in a 7-2 loss, back in 2019. The Sox are 2-0 in Cease's starts here; he's got a 2.31 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in those games. Cease allowed two runs (and only three hits) through six complete last time out. That marked the seventh time in his past eight starts that he allowed three or fewer earned runs. He allowed four in the other. In fact, a closer look shows that he allowed a total of only 12 combined earned runs over those eight starts. In those entire eight starts, he only allowed one HR and that came on the road. In other words, Cease is tough. Yesterday, the Sox had a southpaw starter against a right-handed starter for the Angels. The opposite is true today though. That's noteworthy as Chicago is 43-23 its past 66 against southpaw starters. Expect them to improve on those stats. 

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the run-line. (+1.5 runs) While the Phillies bats were silenced yesterday, they came into this series on a roll. In fact, they'd just outscored Colorado 32-9 in sweeping that 4-game series. I expect them to bounce back with a big effort today. As manager Giradi commented: "The great thing is it only counts as one loss, right?" Walker is coming off the DL; his teams are 1-12 his last 13 starts, since last season. Note that seven of his last 11 were decided by a single run, too. Gibson has won two of his four starts this season and the two losses were both by a run. Gibson's last start against the Mets was a 3-2 loss and his previous one was a 4-2 win. Both were quality. Gibson allowed just four combined earned runs through 12 2/3 innings, striking out 14. I say the Phils bounce back with at least the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing TEXAS on the RL (+1.5 runs) While the overall numbers may be similar, I like what I've seen from Dunning lately a lot more than what I'm seeing from Elder. The latter can't throw strikes. Over his past two starts, he's issued 11 walks in nine combined innings. That's dreadful. Dunning had 5 K's against one walk, in his last start. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all four of his starts. The Rangers are 2-0 in his two home starts, most recently a 6-2 win over the Astros. Prior to yesterday's 6-3 defeat, the Rangers were off b2b 1-run losses. Speaking of 1-run games, each of Elder's last two starts were decided by a single run. Expect the Rangers to bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover."

I'm playing on Chicago/Milwaukee OVER the total. While both teams are off relatively low-scoring games, I'm expecting the bats to come alive in this one. Both lineups are very familiar with today's starters. The Brewers, especially, have seen Hendricks many, many times. In Milwaukee's case, they've already seen Hendricks this season, too. I did win with the Cubs in Hendricks' last start. So, I'm aware that he pitched well. That was at home against the Pirates though. On the road, thus far, he's got a 14.71 ERA and 2.997 WHIP. Houser hasn't been taken deep since his last start against the Cubs, an 8-5 final last September. Houser would give up nine baserunners in that one, seven hits and two walks, while lasting only four innings. He's made five starts against the Cubs. All five finished with a minimum of nine runs and the last four all reached double-digits. Meanwhile, Hendricks' last four starts against the Brewers have all reached at least nine runs and three of those games had 17 or more runs. Look for this one to find its way over the low number. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The White Sox stopped the bleeding yesterday. I expect them to follow up yesterday 7-4 victory with another one this afternoon. Chicago's Jake Burger commented: "Hopefully this is the start of a run on the right side of things. The vibes in the dugout were pretty great." The Sox should get some decent pitching as Kopech has an outstanding 0.64 ERA through his first three starts. Kopech's lone start vs. Kansas City saw the Sox win by a score of 3-1. On the other hand, KC is just 2-5 in Keller's last seven starts vs. Chicago. The Royals are now 47-70 in road games the past 2+ years. During that span, Chicago is 77-44 at home. The Sox won three of last year's four games against Keller, including both here at Chicago. They're 34-16 the past 50 times that they were home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to close the series with a victory.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While I lost with the White Sox yesterday, I'm coming right back with them today. While I respect Greinke, he hasn't benefitted from much run support recently and that figures to be an issue again today. The Sox are too talented to keep on losing and Cease was dominant (1.59 ERA, 0.882 WHIP) in his lone start here. Cease's last home start vs. the Royals resulted in a 7-1 victory. He recorded 11K's and allowed only one hit, while throwing six shutout innings. The Sox are still 34-16 the past 50 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Look for another strong outing from Cease as the Sox bounce back and improve to 11-3 the past 14 times that they were off a shutout loss. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. These teams have split the first two games. The Brewers won yesterday after the Phillies took Friday's opener. I expect the Phillies to have the edge. Nola deserved better last time out. He went into a difficult environment (Coors Field) and allowed two earned runs through 5 1/3 innings. He struck out four and walked one. In a game at Colorado, that's normally enough to give the starter a pretty solid chance of victory. While the Phillies didn't provide Nola any run support that day, I expect them to give him some here. Lauer has been fortunate to face a pair of weak teams (Pirates and Orioles) out of the gate but he's still got a 6.75 ERA on the road and he's been taken deep in each of his starts. His career numbers under the lights aren't nearly as good as they are during the day and that was certainly the case last year. All three of Lauer's starts vs. the Phillies have come against Nola. The lone one here at Philadelphia saw the Phillies win by a score of 6-5. Though only two of them were earned, all six runs were charged to Lauer. Expect Nola and the Phils to finish on top, once again. 

I'm playing on Bos/TB OVER the total. Yesterday's game slipped under the number but I'm expecting the bats to come alive in this one. Neither pitcher has much in terms of starting experience; both are normally relievers. Whitlock makes his first start. Feyereisen was only around two innings in his first start. It ended with a final score of 9-3. In other words, we won't be expecting any complete games. Prior to yesterday, the Rays had scored six or more runs in three of their previous four games. Boston banged out 11 hits yesterday and easily could have scored more. Prior to yesterday, three straight meetings between these teams had reached double-digits. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than expected.

I'm playing on ATLANTA. While they struggled against the Dodgers, the Braves will have the edge in this one. With a 1.64 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 15 K's in two starts, Wright had been outstanding. He had a 0.00 ERA in two spring training appearances, too. So, he's dialed in. Atlanta's Adam Duval said this after his last start: "He was just getting after them. He was throwing everything, it looked like, with everything he had. His curveball, he wasn't holding back. Seeing that, it sends vibes through the team and through the lineup." The same cannot be said for Rogers. He's 0-2 with an ugly 12.15 ERA. Miami's pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. said this of Rogers: "He backed himself into a corner ... We do have some adjustments to make ... " Note that Rogers is also 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts vs. the Braves. With the Marlins just 11-27 their last 38 road games, with an O/U line of 8 or 8.5, expect the champs to bounce back. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. This is a great spot for the Cubs to bounce back with a victory. Leiter Jr's numbers don't look very good. In fact, they look downright ugly. However, that's only one start and it came at Coors Field. So, we can cut him some slack. Keep in mind that he was coming off a spring training where he compiled an outstanding 0.93 ERA (0 HR's allowed) in four appearances. Having been out of the game for several years, a home game against the Pirates is just what the doctor ordered. Not only are the Pirates 41-83 in divisional play the past 2+ seasons, they're 13-33 as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range. Wilson, who got rocked by the Cubs last April, has been taken deep in both his starts and has a 5.40 ERA (6.75 on road) and 1.561 WHIP. Expect the Cubs, 37-14 their last 51 as a host in this series, to bounce back. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. While I backed Boston in yesterday's game, I expect the Jays to even up the series today. Pivetta is an intense competitor and a "workhorse." However, he's not a dominant pitcher and he's not in good current form. So far this season, he's 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. He struggled in his first start (at NY) and then got worse in his second start, a home loss against the Twins. That's not surprising when we consider what he did here last season. (He had a 5.40 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 15 home starts but a 3.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 16 road appearances.) Unlike Pivetta, Berrios improved in his second start. Pivetta made two "home" starts against the Jays last season and he wasn't good in either. In 9 2/3 combined innings, he allowed 10 earned runs and was taken deep four times. As a member of the Jays, Berrios has made one start against Boston. He allowed just one earned run through six complete innings. The Sox, currently banged up at the catcher position, are 0-6 the past six times that Pivetta was listed as an underdog. The Jays have been great at bouncing back from losses this season. Expect them to do so again here.

I'm playing on BOSTON. I successfully played against the Red Sox yesterday. However, this is a far more favorable matchup and I expect them to bounce right back. The Jays do have a potent lineup. Everyone knows that though and all the extra hype about them gets factored into the line. In this case, Boston could easily be a bigger favorite. The Jays aren't entirely healthy and Kikuchi is hardly an ace. He's not in good form either. In his lone start this season, he allowed seven baserunners in 3.1 innings. That translates to a 2.10 WHIP. Sure, that's only one start. However, keep in mind that he also had a 6.48 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in the spring. I don't think he's "ready for primetime." Remember, he's only 15-25 with a 4.98 ERA for his career. On the other hand, Eovaldi has a 1.15 WHIP through his first two starts. In 10 innings, he's already recorded 13 K's. Both starts were on the road. He was tough here at home last season, going 6-4 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, striking out 117 in 114 innings. Eovaldi made one home start against the Jays last season. That 6/14 start saw him deliver 6 2/3 shutout innings. Boston won 2-1. Given Kikuchi's current struggles, Eovaldi should get considerably more run support in this one. Eolvadi's lone 2020 home start vs. the Jays was also of the quality variety. While Eovaldi didn't factor in the decision, he recorded 10 K's without walking a batter and Boston won 5-3. Expect him to get the better of Kikuchi en route to a Boston win.

I'm playing on SD. After the Padres won big on Friday, the Braves bounced back with a 5-2 win yesterday. I fully expect the Padres to have the edge in Sunday's series finale. Darvish was great in one start and terrible in the other. Both those were on the road. Here, he'll be pitching at home for the first time this season. That should make him happy. Darvish really struggled on the road last season but was much stronger here at home. In fact, he was 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP on the road but 6-4 with a 3.38 ERA and a stellar 0.95 WHIP here at home. Elder, only 22 years old, will be making his second career start and first on the road. He's got a 4.76 ERA to show from his first start and that was at home against a Washington lineup arguably far less formidable than the one he'll face here. He was also provided with a ton of run support, which made things much easier. I don't see that happening here. The last time that Darvish faced the Braves, he held them to two runs, on only four hits, through 5 2/3 innings. A similar effort should be more than enough in this one. While I mentioned that Darvish was 6-4 here last season; a closer look shows that the Padres were actually 13-4 in Darvish's 17 starts here last season. (7-0 in games where he didn't get a decision.) Expect Darvish and the Padres to bounce back. 

I'm playing on NY/Baltimore OVER the total. Wells' first start didn't go well. He allowed four earned runs, while lasting just 1.2 innings. That translates to a horrible 21.60 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. Of course, it's never wise to over-react to a single start. He's obviously not as bad as those numbers suggest. That said, he may not be ready to face the powerful Yankees. Remember, he's got 45 carreer appearances but that was his first start. Needless to say, he's not going to be ready to "go the distance." Taillon had an ERA above four again last season. A closer look reveals that he had a 5.60 ERA an 1.40 WHIP on the road, much worse numbers than he had at home. I say this one hits double-digits. 

I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Obviously, Syndergaard can be tough. However, while his teams are 5-3 his past eight starts, three of those wins were by a single run. In other words, his teams would be 2-6 his past eight, if being asked to lay -1.5 runs in each. With Syndergaard's big name comes a relatively big price tag for LA on the ML. That allows us to get an extra +1.5 runs with the home team. Hearn only allowed one earned run in his first start. I like the fact that he had six K's vs. only one walk. On the other hand, Syndergaard issued two walks, while striking out only one. Its also worth noting that Hearn was 3-0 in spring training. Even off yesterday's win, the Angels are still only 50-72 in divisional play the past few seasons. Expect the Rangers to give them all that they can handle in this one, en route to AT LEAST the 'run-line cover.'

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I'm aware that Rasmussen has never tasted defeat. However, I expect it to finally happen here. This is an excerpt of what I said prior to Cease's last start: " ... Cease, who had more than 12 K's per nine innings (227 overall) last season, should have a big season. He had a dominant 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in limited spring work ..." He struck out eight over five innings, allowing only two hits and one run. Rasmussen avoided defeat but lasted only four innings, got taken deep and allowed two runs. In that start, he was followed by Josh Fleming. The two make a good contrast. However, that won't be an option today. Due to injuries to their pitching staff, Fleming had to start yesterday's game. Look for Cease to outpitch and outlast Rasmussen, the Sox bouncing back and improving to 61-39 the past 100 times that they were off a loss. 

I'm playing on NY. The price has come down a little on the Yankees. While I naturally respect the Jays, I feel that the Yankees are offering outstanding value, at this price. I liked what I saw from Severino. Though he hadn't started since 2019, he topped 100 MPH. He also struck out five without walking a batter. True, he didn't go too deep. We can't expect him to give us a complete game today either. That said, he's now got a start under his belt and should go longer than he did. Remember, he was 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 2017 and 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 2018. He had a 1.50 ERA in 2019 before getting shut down. My point is that this guy is a winner and his return make the Yanks much better. Note the NY is 5-0 the past five times that it allowed five or more runs in its previous game. Gausman had a great stint in SF but he was nothing special in his previous time in the AL. He gave up eight hits in five innings in his first start. His teams are 1-3 his past four starts against NY, 2-4 the past six. The last time that Severino faced the Jays, he blanked them for five innings. The last time that the Gausman faced NY, he allowed six earned runs. NY bounces back.

I'm playing on TEXAS. (action) After dropping last night's home opener, in somewhat controversial fashion, Texas manager Chris Woodward commented: "That didn't determine us losing the game. We lost that game. We didn't play well. We didn't make plays at the end. We didn't make pitches at the end. That's the most important thing I can say. It's more of a technicality. Listen, I read the rule. It is what it is. There's not much we can do. We have to walk away, but it's really frustrating to lose a game like that… There's nothing we can do about that. We have to play better baseball." Today, I expect the Rangers to do exactly that: "Play better baseball." Perez, back with the club, gets the call. While some pitchers didn't care for the abbeviated spring, Perez liked it. He had this to say: "For me, this is the best spring. I think six weeks is too much. ... Four weeks is enough." Perez, who was solid in spring, should get some decent run support in this one. Kuhl, who had a 4.84 ERA last season, was terrible in spring. In two appearnaces, he recorded a 13.50 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. While he may have only pitched 5.1 innings, he managed to allow 12 hits while walking four batters. I don't feel he's ready to go and I expect the Rangers to make him pay for it. With the Rockies still 41-70 on the road the past few seasons, expect the Rangers to respond.