I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Celtics have had their chances. They could easily be leading this series. They haven't taken advantage though. Now, it's too late. The well-coached veteran Warrior team knows they have the Celtics on the ropes. They smell the blood in the water and they absolutely want to close the deal. They're 5-1 under Kerr when up 3-2 in a series. Curry couldn't hit anything last game and the Warriors still won by double-digits. Naturally, he's going to be better in this one. Former #1 pick Wiggins has come into his own in these playoffs and that's made a huge difference. Not only does he score but he dominates the boards. Green and Poole are both capable of making a difference. Meanwhile, Klay Thompson has started to find his groove. Speaking of Klay, he tends to dominate in Game 6 situations. In 12 career Game 6's, he's averaging 20.7 points per game while connecting on 49.5% of his 3-point shots. The Warriors are 11-5 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games and they're 29-13 SU when off a double-digit win. While I expect them to improve on those stats, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on GSW. The zig-zag theory has been alive and well in this series thus far; no team has won two in a row. However, I expect that to change in Monday's pivotal Game 5 matchup. Since relinquishing homecourt advantage with a Game 1 loss, the Warriors have done what they needed to do. They bounced back with a Game 2 win and they got the split in the two games in Boston. Homecourt advantage once again belongs to them and they're not about to let it slip away again. While the Celtics are 31-21 on the road, the Warriors are 41-11 at home. They score more points here than Boston does on the road and they also allow less. Last time on this floor, also playing with two day's rest in between games, the Warriors won 107-88. I'm expecting another win and cover. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Impressive comeback win for the Celtcs in Game 1. I'm not writing off the Warriors yet though. Battle-tested, they've been here before. They know what needs to be done. They're 14-7 ATS over the years, when trailing in a series. Each of the Warriors' recent losses has seen them respond with a big win. They're still 40-11 on this floor. With the Celtics only 4-7-1 ATS the past dozen times that they were off an upset victory, I say the Warriors bounce back with the win and cover. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Needless to say, this has been a crazy series. The Celtics have arguably looked more impressive in their three wins than the Heat have in theirs. Largely as a result, we're getting the #1 seed as an underdog, on its home floor. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Heat were favored by four points, for Game 1 here. That's a big difference. We saw the willpower of Butler and co. It would have been easy to roll over in Game 6. They didn't. The Heat are 20-8 ATS as underdogs and they're 11-5 ATS (12-4 SU) when coming off a SU win, after having been listed as underdogs. They're 36-14 at home, compared to Boston's 29-20 on the road. Grab the points but expect the "outright win." 

I'm playing on MIAMI. It's true that the Celtics have looked very good in their three victories. The #1 seed isn't going to down without a fight though. The Heat have already show that they can win here. They won Game 3 by a score of 109-103. They're still 20-11-1 ATS their last 32 in the revenge role and 12-6 ATS when off a double-digit loss. Boston's previous big wins have led to some extra line value. Keep in mind that we're working with more points now than at anytime in the series. Speaking of points, note that Miami is 19-8-1 ATS its last 28, in the underdog role. The last time that the Heat were off b2b losses, they responded by winning their next game by 35 points. I'm not expecting another 35-point blowout tonight but I AM expecting them to bounce back with their best effort, en route to AT LEAST the 'cover.' 

I'm playing on GSW. The Warriors missed their chance to close things out in four games, at Dallas. Back home, don't expect them to let it happen again. Give the Mavs credit for fighting to avoid the sweep. They still know the series is over though. They won't have the will to fight back this time. It's hard to beat Golden State twice in a row. The well-coached Warriors are a dominant 23-11 ATS (28-6 SU) their last 34, when playing with 'revenge.' They responded to each of their previous three playoff losses with a victory. They won those three games by an average of 16 points. The Warriors have obviously been here before. Their experience factor can't be overlooked. Neither can homecourt. The Warriors won the two games here by 34 combined points. Look for the Warriors to improve to 31-19 ATS (40-10 SU) their last 50 games here. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. As you've seen, this has been a funny kind of a series. The games haven't really been close. One game, Miami looks dominant and the next game, Boston does. While I do expect the Heat to win outright, I won't be surprised if we finally see a "close" one. That makes getting an extra bucket to work with a nice luxury. Again, I don't think we'll need those points though. The Celtics were great defensively last game. They're just 8-13 SU the past 21 times that they allowed 90 or fewer points in their previous game though. The Heat, 2-0 ATS when tied in a series, are 20-10 ATS the past 30 times that they were playing with 'revenge' and 12-5 ATS the past 17 times that they were off a double-digit loss. They're also 12-7 ATS (15-4 SU!) the past 19 times that they failed to score 100 or more points in their previous game. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavericks have shown that they should not be counted out. Down 0-2 to the Suns, they returned home and won Game 3 by a 103-94 score. They also won Game 3 in the Jazz series, winning by eight as +8.5 point underdogs. They're 6-3 SU/ATS the past nine times that they were trailing in a series. The Warriors aren't as tough on the road. They're 19-27 ATS (22-24 SU) in road games. Favored for the first time in the series, note that the Mavs are 30-19-2 ATS and 41-10 SU when listed as favorites. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on GSW. The Mavs were certainly impressive in disposing of Phoenix. I really like how this one sets up for the Warriors though. Not only are they playing at home but they've got the advantage of playing with extra rest. At this time of the year, for this team, I believe that will work in their favor. Note that the Warriors are 6-3 ATS (8-1 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Last time in that situation, they won by 30. While the Mavs won the most recent meeting, the Warriors are a dominant 22-11 ATS (27-6 SU) their last 33 in the revenge role. Going back further finds the at 69-45 ATS when playing with revenge. During that span, the Mavs are 19-24 when coming off an upset victory. Warriors roll. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Great job by the Celtics to knock off the defending champs. The Heat are a different beast though. They're more well rounded (not as one-dimensional) than the Bucks on offense and they're even stingier on defense. They allow just 103.9 ppg, 104.6 ppg overall. The Heat had the best homecourt record (and overall) in the East. Butler may not get the numbers that Giannis does but he continues to prove to be the ultimate competitor. While it still may not be enough time to get Lowry back, the extra rest between games also figures to favor Miami. The Heat are 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games, 11-4-1 ATS (13-3 SU) their last 16 in that situation. Fresher down the stretch, look for the Heat to grab Game 1, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. While they failed to close things out in Dallas, this what the Suns worked so hard for during the regular season. The chance to play this game on their home floor. I like that the teams play with two day's rest in between game. Other than the first game, where they both had some rest before (Suns won and covered) each other game has had one day's worth of rest in between games. Therefore, it's worth noting that the Suns are 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS the past 15 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Even better, they're 17-4 ATS (18-3 SU) the past 21 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. It's tough to beat this team twice in a row. Already 3-0 SU/ATS when tied in a series, expect the Suns to rise to the occasion with another big win and cover. 

I'm playing on GSW. I lost with the Warriors last game but I'm coming right back with them tonight. Needless to say, the Warriors weren't happy with their play on Wednesday. They turned the ball over way too many times and just weren't themselves. They allowed 134 points, a whopping 77 in the first half. That was the most they allowed all season. The only previous time this season that they allowed more than 130 points was on  Dec. 7th, when they gave up 131 at Denver. The next game, they returned home and bounced back with an efficient and dominant double-digit win over the Clippers. Angry with themselves and now more well aware than ever that they need to close the deal tonight, (and not risk going back to Memphis) I expect the Warriors to again bounce back with a huge effort. They're 21-11 ATS (26-6 SU) when playing with 'revenge' and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. While everyone loves a Game 7, I don't see this series "going the distance." Rather, I believe the Suns will close things out tonight. As you're likely aware, the home team has won and covered every game in this series, thus far. So, it would be easy to make a case for the Mavs. Every game is unique though. I believe that the Suns "turned the corner" in the second half of the last game. That one was close at halftime but the Suns elevated their defense after the break. In fact, they would limit the Mavs to a mere 34 second half points. Remember, prior to losing Game 3 and 4, the Suns were a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four visits here, 9-1 ATS (8-2 SU) their previous 10. So, they do indeed know how to win here. Booker, Paul and co. can smell the blood in the water. They know this is their chance. They know that if they get past here that every remaining potential opponent has shown vulnerabilities. Phoenix coach Monty Williams said this of the big Game 5 win: "It was the defense. When we get stops like that and are able to get out in transition, it gets us going ... And I firmly believe that defense travels. It's the one thing you can do in any gym." Expect that to be the case tonight. The Suns punch their ticket to the Western Conf. Finals, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. While everyone loves a Game 7, I don't see this series "going the distance." Rather, I believe the Heat will close things out tonight. As you're likely aware, the home team has won and covered every game in this series, thus far. So, it would be easy to make a case for the Mavs. Every game is unique though. I believe that the Heat "turned the corner" last game. The 35-point blowout was never close. They took the fight right out of Philadelphia. Embiid deserves credit for an excellent season but he's not quite himself right now. Already dealing with other issues, he may have tweaked his back last game, too. The following statement by him gives an idea where his head is at: "This is a ‘lose-lose' situation for me. If I don't play, I probably get called soft and if I play and I play bad, they probably come up with a bunch of stuff that I guess he's just not good enough ... " While what he's saying may be partly true, it's still not a good thing for Philadelphia to hear Embid talking like that. Even without Lowry, the Heat are extremely deep. They've also got a real 'leader' in Jimmy Butler, something the 76'ers arguably don't have. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said this of Butler: "He's a great competitor at his core. When you get into a competition, he understands the full deal -- that you have to do it on both ends. And he's able to compete with a ferocity and an incredibly stable mind. That is really unique ..." The Heat are a dominant 17-6-1 ATS as underdogs. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on GSW. Even if Morant was 100% healthy and expected to play, (he's not) I'd be backing the Warriors in this game. While I respect what they've done to get this far, I feel that the Grizzlies are outmatched and that they've missed their opportunity. Indeed, the Grizzlies had their chances to steal the last game which would have made everything different. To come so close, only to fall short, will be tough to recover from. It's a tough one. As Tyus: "It's a tough pill to swallow. It felt like we were leading the whole game. It felt like we were in a good position. It felt like we put ourselves in a good position to win a ballgame and things didn't go our way down the stretch." The battle tested and well-coached Warriors (with or without Kerr) have been here before. They know the importance of taking care of business now and not having to play another game. They'll smell the blood in the water and they'll seal the deal, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. Give the Mavs credit for holding serve at home. The home team is now 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the series. The series shifts back to Phoenix for Game 5 though; I expect homecourt to again prove significant. The Suns have been very tough to beat here all season. They won the first two games of the series here by seven and 20 points. They're 36-10 here overall and they've outscored visiting teams to an average of 115.7 to 106.8. By comparison, the Mavs are a modest 25-21 on the road and they've actually been outscored (108-107.8) in their road games overall. The Suns are still 16-4 ATS their last 20 their last 20 in the revenge role and 65-35 ATS, excluding pushes, their last 100 in that situation. They're 2-0 ATS when tied in a playoff series in these playoffs. In this situation, tied 2-2, in the first round, they won 112-97. The last time that they were off b2b losses, they responded with a double-digit win. I'm expecting more of the same on Tuesday. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Give the 76'ers credit for holding serve at home. The home team is now 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the series. The series shifts back to Miami for Game 5 though; I expect homecourt to again prove significant. The Heat have been very tough to beat here all season. They won the first two games of the series here by 14 and 16 points. They're 34-12 here overall and they've limited visiting teams to an average of only 104.3 points. They're still averaging only 99.7 points against for the playoffs. Back on their home flloor, look for the Heat to bounce back and improve to 19-10-1 ATS (21-9 SU) the past 30 times that they played with 'revenge.' 

I'm playing on GSW. I love how this one sets up for the Warriors. They haven't covered for awhile and are off a loss. That's helped to keep the line lower than it could have been. While the Warriors may have dropped Game 2 and may have failed to cover the two games at Memphis, they did, in fact, accomplish what they needed to. They earned a split and are now back home. Remember, this is a highly (playoff) experienced and very well-coached team which knows how to get it done, in this very situation. It also favors the Warriors that there has been a few days off in between games. They're 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the past eight times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. During the same span, the Grizzlies are 0-2-1 ATS (0-3 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. They're just 2-7 SU their last nine in that situation. These teams have met four straight times at Memphis now. The Warriors won the last meeting here by nine points though. They're 25-6 SU and 20-11 ATS the past 31 times that they played with 'revenge.' I'm expecting a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. After dropping Game 1, needless to say, the Celtics can't afford to lose this one. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. While they didn't fare well in Game 1, the Celtics have typically bounced back from bad losses all season long. They're 7-2 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss and 11-5 ATS (12-4 SU) off a SU loss, when listed as a favorite. Going back further finds them at 21-10 SU/ATS when off a double-digit loss. On the other hand, the Bucks are just 3-9 ATS the past 12 times that they were off an upset win, 1-4 ATS their past five in that situation.  Al Horford said this, after the Game 1 loss: "This one should hurt a little bit. We have an opportunity now to learn from this game, see how we can be better as a group and come out and do that Tuesday." Jaylen Brown added: "They hit us in the mouth so we gotta be ready for the next one." Expect the Boston stars, Tatum and Brown, to be better as the Celtics level the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. While I won with the 76'ers in their last game, this is a whole different deal. Philadelphia was fortunate to draw Toronto in the first round and still struggled. This year's Miami team is loaded. Expect them to start the series with a convincing double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The home team won and covered all four regular season meetings between these teams. I expect homecourt to again prove significant on Sunday. The Celtics had arguably a tougher first round opponent than the Bucks. Yet, their series wasn't even close. They swept the Nets in four games. They're playing at a very high level. They're also healthy, rested and playing at home. The Bucks were able to survive, and even thrive, without Middleton against the Bulls. However, he's a big piece of this Milwaukee team and his absence will be felt now that the champs are stepping up in class and playing at the far more difficult venue. While both teams are well-rested, the Celtics are 10-5-1 ATS the past 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games while the Bucks are 5-11 ATS the last 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest. The Bucks are 6-9 ATS the last 15 times that they faced a team with a winning record. During the same span, the Celtics are 16-5-1 ATS (17-5 SU) when facing a team with a winning record. I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on UTAH. While they haven't played well, the Jazz aren't done yet. They've had the past two days off to "regroup" and I expect them to be at their very best tonight. Note that the Jazz are 18-10-2 ATS (24-6 SU) the past 30 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Remember, the Jazz are still 30-13 at home; the Mavs are 24-19 on the road. Dallas gives up 107.4 on the road, while Utah gives up 107.2 at home. However, while the Mavs average only 107.9 on the road, the Jazz average 116.4 here at home. With the exception of Game 3, the Jazz have had their way with the Mavs here. Expect them to extend the series for another day. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Raptors defied the odds to get this far. Down 3-0, they've rallied with b2b wins to force a Game 6, on their home floor. Many will now be sure that this series will go the distance. While I respect what the Raptors have done, I'm not among those who think there will be a Game 7. Ultimately, I feel that Embiid and Harden, with help from the likes of Harris, Maxey and Currey will prove to be too much. I expect that to finally happen here. The Raptors held Philadelphia to 88 points last game. However, they're just 1-5 SU/ATS when allowing 90 or fewer points in their previous game, 7-14 ATS after allowing 100 or less. The 76'ers, on the other hand, are 12-7 ATS (15-4 SU) after scoring 100 or less. The series ends here.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Raptors deserve a lot of credit. It would have been easier to just fold and give up. They didn't though. Their Game 4 victory prevented the 4-0 sweep. While the well-coached Raptors clearly have pride, this series is still over. The 76'ers will make sure of that tonight. Even if they weren't banged-up, the Raptors are simply outmatched. Neither of the first two games here were close. The 76'ers won by 20 and by 15. The last time that the 76'ers were off a loss, they bounced back with a 13-point win. Off their previous loss, they bounced back with a 30-point win. Also very well-coached, the 76'ers know they can't afford to mess around. They won't. Expect them to be "all business," en route to another convincing double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on NO. The Pelicans couldn't take advantage of the Booker-less Suns in Game 3. However, I expect them to do so this evening. I've pointed out that I really believe the Pelicans are better than many realize. The "three-headed monster" of Igram, Valanciunas and CJ McCollum is indeed formidable. The last time that they were trailing in a playoff series, after their Game 1 loss, they responded with a double-digit win in their next game. Overall, they're a respectable 28-22 ATS in the revenge role. Keep in mind that this team is far better now than it was earlier in the season; adding McCollum made a huge difference. The Suns, meanwhile, are a modest 4-5 SU/ATS in April. Bookier isn't just any player and they'll miss him in this one. I'll grab the points but I expect NO to win outright and even the series. 

I'm playing on UTAH. Much of the talk before each game has revolved around the status of Doncic. So far, the Mavs haven't needed him. He's expected to return for Game 4. With or without Doncic, it's going to be difficult for the Mavs to shoot as well as they did in Game 3. Keep in mind that other players tend to let down a little when a star returns. Yes, the Mavs were 2-1 in the games that Doncic played against the Jazz this season. However, both those wins were at Dallas. Doncic had a double-double here in February and the Jazz still won. In fact, prior to Thursday night, the Jazz had beaten the Mavs 11 straight times here. The Mavs last win here had been in April of 2016. Note that the Mavs are 1-3 SU/ATS the past four times that they were leading in a playoff series. Backs against the wall, I expect the best from the Jazz. Look for them to resume their homecourt dominance in this series and for them to improve to 7-3 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bulls got their split in the two games at Milwaukee. Now, they catch the Bucks without a key player in Middleton. However, the champs have been here before. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. The Bucks are 5-1 SU/ATS the past six times that they were tied in a playoff series. During that span, the Bulls were 0-0 when tied in a playoff series. I expect that difference in recent playoff experience to prove important this evening. The Bulls are doing some trash-talking about Giannis but he's still the best player on the floor. Even with those ATS wins at Milwaukee, the Bulls remain a poor 14-21 ATS (10-25 SU) in the underdog role. In fact, they're 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were home underdogs. The Bucks have dominated the Bulls here over the years, too. This has been like a home-away-from-home. Behind a huge game from Giannis, expect them to regain control of the series. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. You probably saw the exciting ending to Game 1. (In case you missed it, Tatum won it at the buzzer for Boston.) The Nets had their chance to steal that game but couldn't take advantage. I see that as a missed opportunity for the Nets, as I don't see the Celtics providing them a similar chance this evening. That Game 1 victory is the type that a team can build momentum from. Marcus Smart commented: "It was fulfilling for us, especially because of the way we started this year off, those types of games we lost ... But the resilience that we have, the approach we have, and the work we put in to make sure that doesn't happen ..." I backed the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 of their series and noted that this is still a "team game." In this case, I believe that the Celtics are the more complete "team." Clearly, Durant and Irving are extremely dangerous. The Celtics arguably have the superior depth though. They're more well-rounded and generally play more as a "team." Durant and Irving were the only Net players to reach 20 points in Game 1. The Celtics, on the other hand, had four players score at least 20 points. It should also be mentioned that Boston outscored Brooklyn by a 56-32 margin "in the paint" in Game 1 and that the Celtics should enjoy the edge inside once again. The Celtics are a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they played with two day's worth or rest in between games. They were 11-2 SU when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Look for them to take a 2-0 series lead, improving to 17-7-1 ATS (19-6 SU) their last 25 games with an O/U line of 220 or greater. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs aren't being given much respect. I feel that they're providing us excellent value here though. Doncic may be the superstar but this is still a team game. He wasn't the only one that got them this far. Obviously, this is must win territory for the Mavs. They can't afford to drop both games at home. They'll face a Utah team which is just 1-7 ATS the past eight times that it played with one day's rest in between games. The Jazz are also 18-24 ATS (21-21 SU) on the road. Really, the Mavs would have covered Game 1, if they were better at the free throw line. Spencer Dinwiddie noted: "Personally, I've been thinking about the fact we lost by six and I missed six free throws, right? So if anything, this should be encouraging for the fan base, in my opinion. Give them credit. They won the game. ... But we had our chances to win it. And we just didn't do it. Myself, first and foremost: It's inexcusable in a playoff game to miss six free throws." Despite coming up short Saturday, the Mavs are still 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 meetings here. Even better, they're an outstanding 16-3 ATS the past 19 times that they failed to exceed 100 points in their previous game, a highly profitable 26-8 SU/ATS their last 34 in that situation. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Give the Hawks credit for getting here. They're a tough team and they've shown that they can win in the playoffs. That said, I expect those play-in games, particularly the last one against Cleveland, to catch up with them here. Remember, Miami was the best team in the East. Already loaded, the Heat added Lowry. This is their time. Unlike their guests, the Heat have had time to get healthy. Abebayo has been cleared to play. On the other hand, Capela went down for Atlanta in the last game. That's a huge blow. Keep in mind that the Hawks are just 47-74 ATS on the road the past few seasons, 15-27 ATS this year. The Heat are 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) the past 13 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. They're also 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. Expect the Heat to make a statement, pulling away for a convincing double-digit win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76'ers aren't being given much respect here. I feel that they could easily be bigger favorites. The 76'ers are more efficient at home than Toronto is on the road. The 76'ers connect on 46.6% of their shots here. The Raptors, on the other hand, hit 43.7% of their shots on the road. The 76'ers allow opposing teams to hit 45.9% of their shots. Toronto allows host teams to connect on 48.6% of their shots. Both teams last played on 4/10. That break figures to favor Philly. Consider that the 76'ers are 3-0 SU/ATS the past three times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. Going back further finds them at 6-2-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they played with three or more day's rest. During the same span, the Raptors are just 3-6 SU/ATS when playing with three day's rest in between games. Expect the 76'ers to draw first blood, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NO. I absolutely respect the Clippers. They started playing their best basketball down the stretch, including a big win over these same Pelicans to start the month. That said, I expect them to have their hands full tonight. As you probably saw, the Clippers lost to the T-Wolves on Tuesday. The next day, the Pelicans took care of business against the Spurs. So, they're the team which comes in with some positive momentum. The Pelicans arguably also have less pressure on them. I believe that makes them very dangerous. While Zion remains out, the trio of Valanciunus, McCollum and Ingram is very formidable and coming in full of confidence. Valanciunus is an absolute load under the net. He's off a 22/14 game. McCollum, a playoff veteran and calming presence, came through for 32 points. Ingram sealed the deal with 27 points of his own. San Antonio coach Greg Popovich had this to say: "The three best players for New Orleans all played great, and if that happens, you're going to lose." Momemtum on their side, facing a Clipper team which is 1-10 ATS the last 11 times it played with two day's rest in between games, I'm grabbing the points with the Pelicans. 

I'm playing on UTAH. While the Suns, who have already locked up the #1 seed, are expected to play their starters, they're unlikely to log really heavy minutes. Even if they do, I expect this game to mean more to the Jazz. After largely struggling for the second half of March, the Jazz have finally put it together their past couple of games. Playing their regular season home finale, against a possible future playoff opponent, they really need to keep that positive momentum going. The Suns outscore teams by an impressive 114.3 to 108.1 average score on the road. However, the Jazz are 29-11 here, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 117.1 to 106.8. Look for a motivated Jazz team to improve to 50-17 SU their last 67 games here, when the O/U line was 220 or more, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets need this one more than the Grizzlies. A lot more. The Nuggets lost an important one last time out, prompting Aaron Gordon to remark: "It's a bad loss for us. We just didn't take advantage of the opportunity that was presented to us and it's frustrating, but we know we have two games left. Our focus is on that just now." With a win tonight (or one in their final game) the Nuggets can avoid the play-in tournament. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are locked into their spot. The Grizzlies are likely to be without Morant, Brooks, and/or others. The Nuggets, 4-1 ATS their last five when coming off a double-digit loss, are playing with triple-revenge against a team they may well face in the playoffs. The Nuggets are 26-14-2 ATS (27-15 SU) the past 42 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect their best effort to lead to a critical win and cover. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I really like how this one sets up for the Bulls. The fact that Chicago played last night is providing us with some extra line value. Keep in mind that Chicago had the previous two days off. So, the Bulls came in "rested." The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they won by double-digits. That was on the road. This will be just the fourth time, since __ that the Bulls have played a home game, after having played the previous day. The previous three instances resulted in one outright win and very close games against a pair of top tier teams, Phoenix and Milwaukee. The Bulls lost those games, but only by three and six points. So, they've been "just fine" when playing the second of b2b games, including against in games here against tough competition. (Overall, they're 23-19 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons, in b2b games.) They've also played the Celtics tough in both games this season. In fact, they blew out the Celtics in the first meeting and lost by only two in the second. Those games were both at Boston, too. The last time that the teams played here, Chicago won by 22 points, as a 4-point underdog. It should also be mentioned that the Celtics face the defending champs, at Milwaukee on TNT, tomorrow. So, it could be easy to have that game already on the back of their minds. With the Celtics just 3-5 SU/ATS their last eight, after scoring 130 or more, grab the generous points with Chicago. 

I'm playing on UTAH. While the Grizzlies would surely like to do some damage to their opponent's playoff chances, this game should mean considerably more to the Jazz. Seriously short-handed, the Grizzlies have already locked up the second spot. The Jazz, on the other hand, are fighting for playoff positioning. They're in sixth, at the moment and enter off a tough loss. However, they have a chance to move up to fifth OR they could fall to the seventh. The latter scenario would involve a play-in game. In other words, they really need this game. Added motivation stems from the fact that the Grizzlies have already beaten them twice this season. Mitchell had this to say: "We have a group of guys -- including myself -- where it's gonna feel good when we figure it out. So, we can sit here and feel sorry for ourselves or we can use it as fuel. And I think we have a group of guys who want to do that. Yeah, we messed up. We've messed up fourth quarters 14 times, 15 times. How do we respond? How do we adjust? That's really where I'm at, that's where we're at. We'll figure it out." The Jazz are 4-2-1 ATS (7-0 SU!) when playing with two day's rest and they're 18-9-1 ATS (23-5 SU) their last 28 in that situation. Well rested and highly motivated, expect Mitchell and co. to "figure it out" in blowout fashion. 

I'm playing on KANSAS. The Tar Heels ended up having Duke's number. The Jayhawks will be a different story. Indeed, Kansas does it all. Deep, talented, experienced and well-coached, the Jayhawks are also peaking at the right time. They followed up an absolutely dominant second half (47-15!) against another ACC team (Miami) by dismantling a good Villanova team. The Wildcats were never really in the game. With that victory, the Jayhawks are 7-2 ATS their last nine, when laying points. They're also 3-1 ATS their past four, as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Both teams score. UNC averages 78.1. Kansas averages 78.3. Note that the Heels are still only 3-6 ATS against teams which score 77 or more. As mentioned, the Jayhawks also defend. Kansas allows 67.3 ppg, 67.8 ppg on the road. The Tar Heels, on the other hand, allow 71.1 ppg and a high 75.1 ppg on the road. In my bracket, I had Kansas winning it all; I believe that the Jayhawks are playing at a different level right now. I expect their superior defense to be the difference. Look for the Jayhawks, 11-6 ATS their last 17 tournament championship games, to become the national champs, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on LA. The Pelicans have won all three of this season's meetings. All three wins came by double-digits. This evening, I expect the revenge-minded Clippers to get some payback. The Clippers have quietly started to play well. In their last home game, they beat Utah. They followed that up with an OT loss, at Chicago. Last time out, they scored 153 points in a blowout win, at Milwaukee. While the champs may not have had their stars in the lineup, that's still the type of victory that the Clippers can build momentum and confidence from. (LA is 3-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after scoring 145 or more.) The Pelicans are off three straight wins. However, those wins were against struggling teams and the Pelicans are just 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) their last 14, when off three or more consec. victories. The Clippers are 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Wizards may not have Beal (and Kuzma) but they're still playing hard. Off a double-digit win on Wednesday, I believe that they're offering excellent value as substantital home underdogs on Friday. While the Mavs have won three in a row overall, they've still dropped three of their last four on the road. They're 6-8 ATS when off three or more consec. wins and they're 2-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or more. With a game against the defending champs on deck, it should be easy to look past the lowly Wizards. The Wizards, 12-4 ATS their last 16 in the month of April, aren't going to roll over though. They're 5-3 ATS when off a double-digit win (22-12-1 ATS L35 in that situation) and their home record is nearly as good as Dallas' road record. With their next three on the road, the Wizards are going to want to take care of business this evening on homecourt. Expect them to give their guests all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Bucks won big in this season's first two meetings. However, the Nets took the most recent. Playing at home, I expect them to salvage the reg. season series split. While the Bucks are 26-12 at home, they're a mediocre 21-16 on the road. A closer look shows that they're only 2-7 ATS their last nine as road underdogs. Even off their win over the 76'ers, the Bucks are still only 12-21 ATS against winning teams. True, the Nets' defense was a bit shaky last game, a 130-124 win over the Pistons. That didn't really surprise me (I had the over) that they got into a fast paced game with the Pistons. When it mattered, they locked it down. Having had more time with Irving in the lineup, the Nets, 8-3 their last 11, are starting to round into form. Speaking of Irving, he had 38 in the most recent meeting with Milwaukee. They won that game without Durant even playing. Now, they'll have both those stars in the lineup; Durant is coming off a 41-point game, one of six Brooklyn players to score in double-digits. Note that the Nets are 3-1 ATS after scoring 130 or more in their previous game. Look for them to improve to 29-11 (SU) their last 40, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 230 or more, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I'm happy to grab the points with the Cavaliers, as I expect them to win outright. Though they failed to cover the big number, the Cavs came through in the fourth quarter for an important win on Monday. They already blew out the Mavs at Dallas and they're 24-14 here at home. Yes, the Cavs are banged up at center, as Allen and Mobley are out. Howver, they've still got options and I feel they'll be fine this evening. While the Cavs rested, the Mavs (20-17 on the road) are off a game last night. They're just 5-6 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, the Mavs got hammered 129-108, by Charlotte. Including that 21-point loss, in addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Mavs will be playing their 8th game in the past 13 days. Last night's game may not have been particularly taxing but eight games in less than two weeks is. The Mavs are 0-4 ATS their last four on the road, too. They lost their last three road games outright and their previous two resulted in wins of two and three points. Don't be surprised when the Cavs dig deep and score the upset.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the road team won both this season's earlier meetings, I'm expecting homecourt to prove significant this evening. In this season's first meeting here, the 76'ers didn't have Embiid or Harris in the lineup. No Harden either, of course. The stars will be out for the home team tonight though. I expect them to treat this game very seriously, a little more so than their guests. Off a loss last time out, Harris said this: "We have to be a lot sharper with that as we close out these last few games and get ready for playoffs for sure. We're gonna need it to win in the playoffs." On the other hand, Giannis said this for the Bucks: "Obviously, you've got to start taking care of your body because ... there's a bunch of injuries like lingering, you know?" Like somebody's knee, ankle, back, hips. You've got to start taking care of your body. You don't want to go into the playoffs having all these things lingering. You want to be 100 percent healthy because once you go into the playoffs ... stuff is going to happen there." While the Bucks have had a couple of days off, they're only 3-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. It should also be noted that the champs are just 11-21 ATS against winning teams. The 76'ers are 6-4 ATS (8-2 SU) the past 10 times that they were off a double-digit loss. Expect them to dig deep and improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on SOUTH ALABAMA. While the Chanticleers deserve credit to be still playing, their season comes to an end this evening. The Jaguars already went to Coastal Carolina and beat this team by three points. Now, they get to face them at home. I expect homecourt to prove significant in this all Sun Belt affair. The Jags will be without Jay Jay Chandler and possibly also without Charles Manning Jr. That's been factored into the line though as its lower than it easily could have been. Certainly, they hope Manning Jr. can go. Even without him, however, this is a deep team. They were 15-2 on this floor and visiting teams averaged less than 60 points here. While USA hits 47.9% of its field goals at home, Coastal Carolina, 5-7 away from home, only connects on 42.9% of theirs, on the road. Lay the small number and expect Coastal Carolina to fall to 7-13 ATS the past 20 times that it was a road underdog of three or fewer points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Kings are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Kings will be playing without Sabonis and Fox and they'll be facing an angry Miami team. Not only have the Heat lost four straight but the Kings also (narrowly) beat them at Sacramento. With three big road games (Boston, Chicago, Toronto) following this one, the Heat know the importance of taking care of business tonight. They also know that they will benefit from a "confidence building blowout." The Kings just faced Orlando and they've got b2b games against Houston on deck. Those are winnable games for them. This one isn't. While the Kings allow more than 117 ppg on the road, the Heat only allow 105 ppg at home. Expect the Heat to bounce back big, improving to 10-4 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. 

I'm playing on KU. The Hurricanes just beat up on a team from the Big 12 and now they'll face another. The problem is that Kansas is better than Iowa State. A lot better. While Iowa State was a middle of the road team in that conference, Kansas is the best. The very well-coached Jayhawks can beat teams on both ends of the ball. They're stingy but unlike the Cyclones, they can also score. Miami scores 74.6 ppg. Kansas scores 78.4 ppg. Miami allows 70.2 ppg. Kansas allows 67.7. A closer look reveals that opposing teams connect on 45.7% of their field goals against Miami but only 41.2% of their field goals against Kansas. That's a significant difference. Speaking of differences, super senior Remy Martin off the bench ha been a difference maker for Kansas. The fact that the Jayhawks failed to cover the past two games has kept this line lower than it easily could have been. Expect Kansas to put it all together this afternoon, punching their ticket to the Final Four with a convincing double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. This is the quarter finals of The Basketball Classic. The winner will play in the semis, on Monday, at Fresno State. I've been riding the Thunderbirds in this tournament and I'm coming back with them again here. As I've mentioned this is a very talented Southern Utah team. Had they not stumbled against Portland State in the Big Sky tournament, the Thunderbirds could easily have won a game or two at the Big Dance. Now, they'll get a chance to take their frustration out on a team from the same state as the one which prevented them from having that opportunity. While the Thunderbirds could have easily packed it in, after not realizing their NCAA dreams, they didn't. Rather, they bought into the opportunity to keep playing and are looking to win this tournament. They'll be in front of their home fans and I expect their best effort. The Pilots are 8-10 on the road, averaging less than 70 ppg. The T-Birds are 12-3 at home, averaging 82.5 ppg here. Southern Utah is 3-1 ATS its past four as a neutral court favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. I don't believe the Pilots will be able to keep up. 

I'm playing on UCLA. Obviously, these are two top teams. They were actually supposed to face each other last December, in Vegas. However, that game was canceled due to the Bruins having to deal with Covid. Now, they face each other with a trip to the Elite 8 on the line. No question, UNC has been playing really well. This is a deep, talented and experienced UCLA team though. The favorite is 5-0 ATS the past five meetings and the Bruins are favored for good reason. Note that the Heels are 4-12-1 ATS their last 17, when listed as neutral court underdogs of three or less. I believe that the Bruins' toughness and defensive advantage will ultimately prove the difference. UCLA allows 64.9 ppg on the road, UNC allows 77.1. Expect the Bruins to advance, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Heat are off b2b losses and they're going to be angry. They're 9-3 ATS their last 12, when off a double-digit loss, a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they were off a double-digit home loss. They're also 28-19-1 ATS (33-15 SU) their past 48, when off an upset loss. While the Knicks are 16-21 on the road, the Heat are a dominant 26-10 at home. The Heat already handled the Knicks in both this season's meetings. More of the same this evening. 

I'm playing on KANSAS. The Friars have played well and are on a nice run. It comes to an end here though. Battle-tested against a tough Big 12 scheduled, this very talented Kansas team is peaking at the right time. Despite playing a more difficult schedule, Kansas has very similar defensive numbers as Providence. The Friars allow 66.2 ppg. The Jayhawks allow 67.6. Opposing teams hit 41.4% of their field goals against Kansas and 41% against Providence. Note that over the past five games, Kansas is allowing just 63.6 ppg while holding opposing teams to a 38% field goal percentage. Prov. has allowed 66 ppg and 41.4% fgs during it's past five games. Its on the other side of the ball where the Jayhawks have an even bigger advantage. Kansas has averaged 78.7 ppg and 76.7 ppg on the road. The Friars, on the other hand, averaage only 66.5 ppg on the road. The Friars hit only 40% of their fields on the road, the Jayhawks connect on 47.3% of theirs. I'm expecting a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. I successfully played against the Raptors in their last game. However, that was on the road, at Chicago. The Raptors are back home now though and they've had the past couple of days off. Note that they're 5-1 ATS the past six times that they played with two day's rest in between games. While the Raptors have had trouble at Cleveland, including losses in December and earlier this month, they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they hosted the Cavs. The Raptors have been at their best against winning teams. They're 25-13-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) their last 17. With the Raptors also 8-4 ATS when off a double-digit loss, look for them to bounce back and get some payback in this one. 

I'm playing on XAVIER. Vanderbilt is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. I won with the Musketeers in their last game. They easily disposed of Florida, a 72-56 victory. I believe that this talented team has hit its stride. I expect Xavier's superior defense to prove the difference. The Commodores barely got by Dayton last game. They've been mediocre on the road all season. They score 69.6 ppg on the road and allow 69.4. On the other hand, Xavier outscores teams by an average score of 75.3 to 64.8 here at home. Off their dominant defensive effort, note that the Musketeers are 5-1 ATS their last six after allowing 60 or fewer points in their previous game. Playing their final home game of the season, expect the Musketeers to punch their ticket to MSG, improving on those stats along the way. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. The Miners are off a blowout win while the Thunderbirds won a close one. Those results have worked in our favor; this line could easily be lower. Keep in mind that UTEP was playing the Western Illinois Leathernecks, a mediocre team (at best) from the Summit Conference. (They were 7-11 in Summit League play, 16-14 overall). The Thunderbirds represent a major step up in class. This is a strong team, one which is angry that it didn't advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Thunderbirds have 21 wins and went 14-6 in the Big Sky and they'd consider that a disappointment. I like the fact that they didn't hang their heads and found a way to beat a tough Kent State team to get here. Prior to their blowout win over the Leathernecks, the Miners were off an OT loss. Prior to that, they'd seen three of their previous four games decided by three or fewer points and those four games were preceded by a blowout loss. The T-Birds are 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points and don't be surprised when score the outright win. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The T-Wolves have certainly been playing well. Off their win over the defending champs, I see them stumbling this evening. These teams met twice back in December. The T-Wolves won by six at Minnesota. The Mavs won by 12, here at Dallas. I expect homecourt to prove significant again this evening. The Mavs closed out their road trip with b2b losses. They'll be in an angry mood, as a result. Note that they're still a healthy 8-3 ATS (9-2 SU) when coming off a double-digit loss. Towns is a bit banged up. His replacement (Reid) is, too. Both appear likely to play. However, if Towns wasn't at quite 100%, it would hurd the Wolves greatly. Even if he's playing well, this will be a tough matchup. The Mavs allow 102 ppg at home while the Wolves allow more than 117 ppg on the road. Lay the small number and expect the Mavs to bounce back with a big win. 

I'm playing on SOUTH ALABAMA. This is a mismatch. The Jaguars score 75.4 ppg at home, hitting 47.3% of their field goals here. The Spartans, on the other hand, average 69.8 ppg on the road, hitting 44.1% of their field goals. It's on the other side of the ball, however, where the Jags have an even bigger advantage. South Alabama allows only 58.1 ppg here. Visiting teams hit just 37.5% of their field goals. Meanwhile, the Spartans allow 75.4 ppg on the road, host teams hitting 43.4% of their field goals. The Jags were 8-4 ATS in lined games here. I like that they found a way to win a close one last game and I expect them to follow it up with a blowout tonight. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. I like how this one sets up for the Magic. Obviously, neither team is very good. They're both dealing with some injury issues, too. That said, the Magic are playing at home and their current injury issues aren't nearly as bad as OKC's current injuries. Also, the Magic know that they'll face these same Thunder, at OKC, on Wednesday. Not only will they be playing on the road but the Magic will be playing the second of b2b games fo that one. That makes "holding serve" at home today, that much more important. The Magic began their current 6-game road trip with a win over Minnesota. However, they've lost each game since that time and they close the homestand with a far more difficult game against the Warriors on Tuesday. They get tomorrow off though; their full focus is on taking advantage of this winnable game. The Thunder host Boston tomorow and are probably already looking forward to getting home. The Magic have quietly gone 6-2 ATS (5-3 SU) against teams from the Northwest. Expect them to improve on those stats. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. Colgate was a tough first round opponent for the Badgers. As I quite respected the Raiders and wasn't 100% certain of Johnny Davis' ankle, I stayed away from the game, as a result. The Raiders, who had won 15 straight, did give the Badgers some early trouble. In the end, Wisconsin's defense came through and Davis caught fire. Iowa State used a similar formula. The Cyclones won with defense and a big game from their star; Tyrese Hunter. While Hunter happens to personally hail from the state of Wisconsin, the fact that this game will be played in Milwaukee benefits the Badgers. While the Cyclones played in a very tough Big 12 Conference, they were only 7-12 within their conference. Keep in mind that the Cyclones entered this tournament off a 71-42 blowout loss, their third straight defeat. The Cyclones do have a good defense and they were able to beat LSU by forcing turnovers. However, they'll have a difficult time doing so against the Badgers. Wisconsin only turns the ball over 8.5 times per game; that's one of the better marks in the country. Wisconsin is also 15-3 SU and 12-4-2 ATS its past 18 when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game, 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS its past five. Facing an ISU team which is averaging only 55.6 ppg (37.7% field goals) its past five games, I believe that this is a favorable matchup for the Badgers. Look for them to punch their ticket to the next round, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on XAVIER. There's a lot that I like about the Musketeers. I like the team itself and believe that they're more talented than many realize. I like how the Musketeers rallied from a deficit to beat a tough Clev. State team in the first round. I like that they're playing here at Cincinnati. (The Gators are 7-8 on the road, Xavier is 14-5 at home.) As for the fact that they're playing under an interim coach, Florida is in the same boat. (The Gators coach left for Georgia.) The Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU victory. They're also 2-8 ATS their last 10 road games vs. teams with a home winning % of greater than .600. Even after failing to cover vs. the Vikings, the Musketeers are still a healthy 9-3 ATS (11-1 SU) against non-conf. opponents. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I won with the Lakers when these teams faced each other on 3/11. That was at LA though. While both teams had the previous night off, the Wizards had a game (at Portland) the next night. Tonight's rematch sets up differently. Both teams played last night. The Wizards lost to the Knicks. The Lakers left it all on the floor at Toronto, beating the Raptors in OT. Both teams will be playing their third game in four days. However, the Lakers will also be playing their fifth game in the past seven days, which is not the case for Washington. (The Wizards will be playing their fourth, in the past seven days.) The Lakers are 0-5 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. Expect the Wizards to bounce back and avenge the recent loss at LA. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks haven't covered for some time. That recent skid has helped in providing us with a generous line. As of this writing, Young is questionable (as is Morant). Of course, we want the Hawks' superstar guard to play. That likely won't be decided until closer to tipoff. However, he hasn't missed any time from it yet and has played 36 or more mins in each of the past three games. Also, the Hawks had yesterday off and they get tomorrow off. While they're saying Morant is likely to play, he did miss Tuesday's game. Regardless of who suits up, the Hawks are going to be bringing their best. Keep in mind that, though they may not have covered, they've still won their last three games here. They're 21-12 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 230 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Hokies are a popular bracket pick. After all, they just knocked off both UNC and Duke to win the ACC Tournament. They certainly check in as the hotter team. Also, #11 seeds have been known to beat #6 seeds. It happened twice last year alone. In fact, it's happened 37.5% of the time, dating back to 1985. Plus. Texas hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 2014. Yet, the Longhorns are the higher seed and small favorite for a reason. While I respect the Hokies, I absolutely see Texas getting off the schneid this year. This is a very talented, athletic and well-coached team, tested against a really strong Big 12 Conference. Remember, the Longhorns have beaten Kansas, a #1 seed expected to go a long way. They also beat Tennessee, holding the Vols to 51 points. Speaking of dominant defensive performances, don't forget that Texas trounced Iowa State by a 63-41 score. They're a top 15 team in terms of defiency efficiency and they allow just 59.6 ppg. Chris Beard, who has enjoyed first round success before, was brought in to get the Longhorns over the hump with an NCAA Tournament win. Expect him to deliver. 

I'm playing on UCLA. The Zips went on a great run to get here. Unfortunately, for Akron fans, they're up against a far superior opponent. The Bruins, 6-0 ATS their last six NCAA Tournament games, are loaded. They may have fallen short against Arizona in the Pac-12 Final but this is an very strong and well-coached UCLA team. Akron doesn't score that much and is here largely because of defense. The Zips allow 63.6 ppg with opposing teams hitting 42.8% of their field goals. The problem is that UCLA is even better defensively. Facing a far tougher schedule, the Bruins allowed 64.8 ppg, holding opponents to 41.6% of their field goals. Those defensive stats have led to an O/U line in the high 120s. That doesn't bode well for the Zips; they're 1-6 ATS the past seven times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. During that span, UCLA is 2-0 SU/ATS when doing so. Despite playing in the tougher conference and also facing the likes of Gonzaga and Villanova from outside the Pac-12, the Bruins still put up those strong defensive numbers and they also had far superior offensive numbers than Akron. The very well-coached Bruins are 9-2-1 ATS (10-2 SU) the past dozen times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. (The lone 'push' was a 16-point win.) Expect them to start the tournament off with a blowout victory. 

I'm playing on ORLANDO. The home team is 3-0 SU/ATS in three meetings between these teams so far. The Pistons won the first two meetings, both at Detroit. The Magic hammered them in the game here at Orlando though. Playing at home, I expect them to have the edge again this evening. The Magic played Houston and Indiana (and beat both) at the end of February. However, their March schedule has been tough. Their last seven games have included road games at Toronto, Memphis and New Orleans (They actually won two of those.) and home games against the Suns, T-Wolves, 76'ers and Nets. Up until the game against the Nets, they'd been doing really well. They beat red hot Minnesota and they only lost by two against the 76'ers and by three to Phoenix. Off the blowout loss to the Nets, note that they're 4-1 ATS after allowing 130 or more points. Taking a big step down in class, look for the Magic to bounce back. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. The Golden Flashes should be careful what they wish for. Coach Senderoff said he asked for a difficult game to open The Basketball Classic. He sure got one. The Thunderbirds are tough. Senderoff noted: "Are we disappointed that we lost Saturday? Absolutely ..." The Flashes didn't just lose. They got hammered 77-55. Now, they're up against an arguably tougher opponent. While the Thunderbirds also (obviously) lost their last game, it was the result of running into a very hot shooting Portland State team. The Golden Flashes, who average only 67 ppg on the road, don't have that type of offense. Southern Utah averages 82.4 ppg here at home. I like that the Thunderbirds last played on 3/10 compared to Kent State last having played on 3/12. I also really like the fact that the Flashes didn't fly out of Ohio until 3:30am Tuesday, flew to Vegas and then had to drive three hours to Southern Utah. Indeed, the situation favors the Thunderbirds. Southern Utah is 3-0 SU/ATS the past three times it was a home underdog of three or less and 13-7 SU/ATS its last 20 in that role. Frankly, I'm surprised that the Thunderbirds are underdogs at all. I see them bouncing back with a solid win. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I successfully played against the Rockets in their last game; they got blown out by the Pelicans. That was at New Orleans though. Now, the Rockets are back home and they've had a couple of days off in between games. Houston is a respectable 14-11 ATS its past 25, when playing with two day's rest in between games, a much better percentage than when playing with other amounts of rest, during the same span. On the other hand, the Suns are off a game at New Orleans last night. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, they'll be playing their third game in the past four days and their fifth in the past seven. Having logged all those minutes over the past week, the Suns could easily take the Rockets, a team which they've already defeated three times, lightly. The Rockets gave the Suns all that they could handle in the last meeting. They lost by only three, as 16.5 point road underdogs. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to again provide the Suns a much tougher test than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MIAMI.The Pistons are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a loss to the T-Wolves on Saturday, the Heat are going to be in an angry mood this evening. They take care of business against teams like the Pistons, too. They're a perfect 6-0 ATS their past six vs. teams with a winning percentage below .400. Saturday's loss was Miami's second game in two days. The Heat have now had two days off in between games though, so they're well rested. Note that they're 21-9 ATS (23-7 SU) the past 30 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU) their past 10. They get the next two days off, too. Their full focus is on the task at hand. The Heat are also 10-5 ATS when off an upset loss. Additionally, they're 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) the past five times that they were listed as home favorites of -12.5 or more. Lay the points and expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO. I successfully played against the Spurs last game. That was a tough spot for them though. Popovich had broken the record the previous night, so the Spurs were playing the second of b2b games. They were also laying points, to boot. Now, however, they're rested, after having yesterday off. They also have tomorrow off. Their full focus is on the task at hand. Note that Murry, previously questionable, has been upgraded to probable, as of this writing. Now, they're even getting points, instead of laying them. No question that the T-Wolves have been plahying well. This has long been a house of horrors for them though. The Spurs are 39-10 SU the past 49 meetings here. The Spurs are 12-7-1 ATS the past 20 times that they were off a double-digit loss. Going back further finds them at 30-19-3 ATS in that situation. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. This should be a good game. These are two really solid and well-coached teams. Both these teams were really good last year, too. Houston achieved great success as it went all the way to the Final 4. Memphis felt that it deserved an NCAA Tournament berth. However, due to a slow start, the Tigers were snubbed. They ended up going to the NIT instead. Once there, they won that tournament. The Cougars arguably lost more from last year's team than did the Tigers. Yet, it was Memphis which got off to another slow start this season. That was largely due to injuries though. The Tigers are absolutely rolling now. Winners of six straight, they're on a mission. They alredy beat Houston in both this season's meetings. The Cougars have only lost twice since 2/12; both losses were against Memphis. The Cougars are 3-10 ATS their last 13 as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. On the other hand, Memphis is 12-2-1 ATS its last 15, when listed as an underdog. Grab the points.

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. I loved this matchup from the time which it was set. However, I waited on pulling the trigger, in the hope that the line might come down a little. It has, albeit not by too much; I'm jumping all in. The Vols were -11 point favorites for the lone regular season meeting. They won by 10. Here, they catch the Aggies having played an extra game. The Aggies played a very hard fought game against Florida on 3/10. The Vols had that day off. That hard-fought win served the Aggies well (provided momentum) over the next two days. However, those extra minutes will catch up with them in this one. Both teams average a nearly identical number of points. However, the Vols have a considerable edge on defense. They held Kentucky to 62 yesterday after allowing 59 the previous day. They'll crank up that defensive intensity again here en route to the title, snapping the Aggies' ATS streak along the way. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. While the Pacers come in well-rested, the Spurs are a off a hard-fought win over the Jazz. This will be the Spurs' third game in four days. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they allowed 133 points in a loss at Miami. Now, they're being asked to lay a handful of points. The Pacers have struggled a bit lately but its not for lack of effort. They lost by three points last time out, falling 127-124. The Pacers won outright as 7-point underdogs here last season and they already beat the Spurs, at Indiana. Including that result, they're 15-8 ATS against teams from the Western Conference. They're also 10-2-1 ATS their last 13, after allowing 125 or more points in their previous game. Schedule in their favor, look for the Pacers to bounce back and give their hosts all that they can handle. 

I'm playing on PURDUE. Both teams won yesterday, obviously. The Spartans managed a cover vs. the Badgers after eking out one against the Terrapins on Thursday. The Boilermakers won by eight yesterday, narrowly missisng out on the cover. Unlike the Spartans, they had Thursday off. I expect that to work in their favor this afternoon. The Spartans are playing their third game in three days, Purdue is not. Remember, this is a loaded Purdue team which returned every starter from last year's team. I also like that the Spartans won the first meeting. Of course, that was at East Lansing. The Boilermakers will use that result to provide them with some extra fire and hunger this afternoon. Remember, Purdue was 4-0 SU/ATS the previous four meetings. The fact that the Boilermakers have failed to cover recently has helped in keeping the line a little lower than it easily could have been. (Purdue was laying -5 for the game at MSU.) The Boilermakers are 6-1 SU the past seven times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Look for them to improve on those stats this afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on PRINCETON. The Big Red did a great job in getting here. However, I believe that they're in over their heads this afternoon. At the beginning of the Ivy League season, I said this about the Tigers: "The Tigers have had a few down years. That will change in 2022. They're already 2-0 in conference play and their 12-3 overall record is best in the Ivy League. Two of those three losses were very close, too. They've beaten the likes of Oregon State and South Carolina. The young Princeton players have matured. They're the early frontrunners for the league title." Meanwhile, I had this to say about Cornell: "I don't expect the Big Red (1-2) to compete for the league title this season; I successfully played against them in their 14-point loss against Penn. However, I'm giving them an honorable mention due to their impressive 10-2 ATS overall record." I still feel the same way and Princeton's 93-70 blowout of Penn last time out, its seventh straight victory, reinforces those feelings. Off their win over Columbia, note that the Big Red are just 3-6 ATS when off an Ivy League victory. Cornell may have played them tough in the regular season but the Tigers will win big when it counts. Lay the points. 

I'm playing on LA. Off a loss to the lowly Houston Rockets, I expect the Lakers to bounce back with a huge effort tonight. A game against the Wizards figures to be just what the doctor ordered. Off a loss against the Clippers on Wednesday, Washington is 0-6 SU/ATS against teams from the Pacific, 9-16 ATS its past 25. Overall, the Wizards are a dismal 5-16 ATS against teams from the West. Washington figures to have trouble keeping up in this one. While the Wizards average 104.6 ppg on the road, the Lakers average 111.8 here at home. They're averaging 115.8 ppg their past five. The Wizards beat the Lakers here, in OT, last season. Beal had 33 points and Westbrook had 32 points, along with 14 rebounds and nine assists. No other Wizard scored more than 15. Beal is out and now Westbrook plays for the Lakers. Expect Westbrook to have a big game against his former team, the Lakers responding with a much needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on VILLANOVA. I love the grit that the Wildcats showed in winning yesterday's game. The Wildcats couldn't hit anything out of the gate. They made only three of their first 20 shots. The defense kept them in it though, as they still trailed by only six. Things got worse. By halftime, the Wildcats were down seven. The second half didn't start well either. In fact, with 15:33 left in the game, Villanova was down by 17 points. That's when the talent and experience kicked in. The Cats didn't blink and went on an 18-2 run. They'd ultimated win by a point. As Jay Wright noted: "We've got great seniors. We have great upperclassmen." No question, UConn is tough. However, I believe that yesterday's comeback win is exactly the type of victory that will build and provide positive momentum fo the Wildcats. Though the Huskies are really good, arguably the second best team in a very strong conference, I don't think they're quite as good as the Villanova team which they'll face today. The Huskies are 1-6 ATS their past seven, as neutral court underdogs. Expect them to stumble tonight, the favorite moving to 4-1-2 ATS the past seven times that these teams faced each other.

I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. Kent State won the lone regular season meeting. At the time, the RedHawks were in the midst of a really bad skid. However, that was more than a month ago. I really like the way that Miami enters this tournament. This is an experienced Miami team, one which returned all five starters from last season. The RedHawks closed out the season off b2b double-digit victories. They won 75-61 at Central Michigan and then followed it up with a 76-63 blowout of Eastern Michigan. Of course, Kent State has been playing really well for some time now. That said, note that each of the Golden Flashes' last three wins have been by single digits; they came by an average of five points. It's also worth mentioning that the Flashes are 1-4-1 ATS (2-4 SU) the past six times that they played with five or six day's rest in between games. The Golden Flashes can have trouble scoring when not playing at home, too. They average 71.2 ppg overall but just 66.6 on the road. On the other hand, Miami averages 75.3 ppg overall and 73.2 ppg on the road. Remember, these teams were very evenly ranked, entering the season. Grab the points and expect the RedHawks, who just may be peaking at exactly the right time, to take this one down to the wire with a real shot at the upset.

I'm playing on PRAIRIE VIEW. These teams split a pair of close games during the regular season. (Each team won on the other team's home floor.) The pointspread suggests this could be another close one. Though the pointspread isn't likely to be a factor, it's worth mentioning that AS is 2-6 its last eight as favorite while PV is 5-0 ATS its last five as an underdog. Alcorn State had the better regular season record. I believe Prairie View is the stronger of the two teams though and I expect that to play out on the court this evening. No question that it was a disappointing reg. season for the Panthers. However, the tournament offers a chance at a fresh start and this is a PV team with the tools to make the most of that chance. Keep in mind that the Panthers have arguably the most talented backcourt in the SWAC. They're "deep and versatile." This is a team which lost in the SWAC title game last season and which is hungry to to get back there. The Braves dropped 100 points on Arkansas Pine Bluff last time out. On the surface, that sounds pretty impressive. However, the Golden Lions aren't very good and don't play defense. Also, the Braves are only 5-10 ATS the past 15 times that they scored 80 or more in their previous game. The Panthers, on the other hand, are 8-3 ATS their last 11, when off a conference loss. Look for them to elevate their game and improve on those stats this evening.

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. While the Celtics check in as the hotter team, I expect the Hornets to be the hungrier one. The Hornets fell behind early last night and couldn't recover. They kept battling though and I expect them to get off to a better start this evening. As coach Borrego commented: "We just have to get off to a better start ..." Note that the Hornets had the previous two days off, before playing last night. So, they're aren't playing their third game in four nights here. As for Boston coming in rested, note that the Celtics are only 2-5-2 ATS (4-5 SU), when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Celtics are also only 8-15-1 ATS (9-15 SU) the past 2+ seasons, after playing their previous three games at home. The Hornets have played the Celtics tough in all three meetings. They split the two meetings at Boston, winning one by nine and losing the other by six. They lost the game here at Charlotte. However, they took the Celtics to OT. (They won the previous game here by 20+.) Expect them to give their hosts all they can handle again tonight, improving to 10-3 ATS when facing teams from the Atlantic. 

I'm playing on MARSHALL. The Panthers had the better regular season record. They even won both regular season meetings. Yet, Marshall is favored for good reason. Indeed, this is a tough matchup for the Panthers. The Herd are far more talented than their record suggests. The Panthers aren't playing as well now as they were when the teams played earlier in the season. They've lost their last four games. Those losses came by nine, 20, 20 and eight points, an average of more than 14. Though they covered last game, the Panthers are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were off an ATS victory. They've allowed more than 80 points in two of their past three. I don't believe they'll able to keep up tonight. Look for Marshall to "win when it counts," covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on CHARLESTON. The Seahawks took both regular season meetings. However, the Cougars are slight favorites for good reason, as this will prove to be one of those cases where it's really difficult to beat a team three times in the same season. The Seahawks beat the Cougars at UNC Wilmington last month. The previous month, they beat the Cougars at Charleston. The Cougars had just finished a tough non-conf. schedule though and they were still adjusting to new players and a first year coach. However, Kelsey is a quality coach and he's got a lot to work with. He's now had the time needed and his team is now benefitting from those tough early non-conf. games. Yesterday's double-digit blowout of Hofstra brought them to 6-0 ATS their past six games. Keep in mind that the Cougars also lost both reg. season games to Hofstra. Yet, they won big when it mattered. I believe that they're putting it all together at the right time and I fully expect another victory this evening.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bulls are coming in extremely hungry. Not only are they desperate to snap their 4-game losing streak but they're also playing with "triple revenge," having lost all three of this season's meetings. The game here at Philadelphia was a close one, the 76'ers winning by five. With this game also being played at Philadelphia, we're getting a few extra points to work with. (Note that three of Chicago's four losses, on the current skid, were by fewer than seven points.) Yet, the 76'ers are a team which actually has a better road record. (They're 18-13 at home but 21-11 on the road.) The Bulls have had a tough stretch of games but they've finally had a chance to catch their breath. They had the weekend off. They also get tomorrow off. They should be refreshed and fully focused on the task at hand. The 76'ers are off a 17-point loss and they won their previous game by six. Grab the points and don't be surprised if the revenge-minded visitors score the outright upset. 

I'm playing on NORTH DAKOTA STATE. he Bison won both reg. season meetings. One win came by eight points. The other came by 18. Sometimes, you'll hear that it can be difficult to beat a team three times in the same season. That's certainly true if the weaker team somehow managed to win both regular season games. At times, it can also be true when the two teams are fairly evenly matched. However, there are cases where one team is just a lot better than the other team. In those situations, there's no reason to think that anything will change from what happened in the regular season. I believe that this is one of those cases. The Bison have a big edge in the backcourt and arguably an even bigger edge in the frontcourt. (The entered the season with the #1 ranked frontcourt in the conference and the #3 ranked backcourt.) The Bison score more points than the Pioneers and they allow less. With an opening O/U line in the high 130s, note that NDSU is 3-0 ATS the past three times it played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. They're 8-3 ATS their last 11 in that situation. During that span, the Pioneers were 2-6 ATS when playing a neutral site game with an O/U line in that range. Expect a double-digit win for the superior team. 

I'm playing on UTAH. Off a big home win against Arizona, the Buffaloes can now secure a #4 seed. That makes this a big game for them. Off back-to-back losses, playing with revenge from a close loss at Colorado and playing their home finale, the Utes are also going to be fired up. That Arizona win was just the second time in school history (and first since 1992) that Colorado had beaten a #2 seed. I believe that 'historic' win may have the Buffaloes, who lost a lot from last year's team and who are 3-10 ATS their last 13, when off an ATS victory, ripe for a "letdown." Over the past couple of months, they've seen a few players go down to injury, including guard Parquet and center Lovering. Those were significant losses. In his last game before injury, Parquet provided 31 minutes, nine points, five rebounds, two assists and three blocks. That was a low-scoring (60-58) game, too. So, stats were tough to come by. The 7-foot Lovering had also been expected to be a big part of the Buffaloes' plans. Keep in mind that the Buffaloes are only mediocre on the road, where they average just 67.1 ppg. The Utes are a profitable 39-19 ATS over the years, after failing to cover their previous three games, 8-3 ATS their last 11 in that situation. Expect the Utes' best effort as they bounce back and improve on those stats tonight. 

I'm playing on OKC. I believe that the value lies with the revenge-minded home underdog in this one. The Thunder have treated me well and I already won my Div. "GOY" on them. This is a team which has been at its best in divisional play. The Thunder beat Denver outright last game and are now 7-2 ATS against teams from within their division. One of the losses came in the last meeting against Minnesota. I won with the 'over' in that one; the T-Wolves came here and scored 135 points. (That game had a much lower O/U line than this one!) The Thunder haven't forgotten and they're coming in with a score to settle. Note that they're 30-15-1 ATS their past 46 in the 'revenge' role, 71-45-4 ATS their past 120. I like that the Thunder have tomorrow night off. On the other hand, the Wolves, who upset the Warriors last time out, have a game vs. Portland on deck tomorrow. With Minnesota just 11-25 ATS (10-26 SU) the past 36 times that it was off an upset win, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on LOYOLA. You probably recall that the Ramblers made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year, eventually losing in the Sweet 16. This year's team brought back four of those five starters. They're still loaded and now they'll remind everyone of that. The Brave, 1-4 ATS the last five times that they played with five or six day's rest in between games, are in over their heads. It doesn't hurt that Bradley upset the Ramblers in the most recent meeting. That'll ensure they don't take anything for granted here. The Ramblers are 7-4 ATS (9-2 SU) the past 11 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. They're also 10-1 SU the past 11 times thay they were off a conference loss. Look for an angry Loyola team to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Hawks recently lost to the Bulls, at Chicago. Playing with "triple revenge," they're going to be extremely motivated. I believe that the Hawks are catching Chicago at the right time. Since beating the Hawks by four, the Bulls have dropped b2b games. Chicago coach Donavan acknowledged his team is a bit inexperienced and doesn't seem to mind bringing out the best in the other team: "The biggest thing for me is we have to get battle-tested in some of these games, and we just don't have a lot of guys who have gone into these kind of experiences. I think it's really good for us." Expect him to get his wish tonight as the Hawks are going to give them all that they can handle. The Hawks are 10-2 ATS their last 12 at home and 5-0 ATS their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. The Warhawks are 1-7 ATS the past eight times that they were listed as neutral court underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. This is another tough matchup for them. The Red Wolves are a much stronger team. They enter the tournament off a momentum-building victory over a solid Appalachian State team and they've got high hopes of making a run. On the other hand, the Warhawks are off five straight losses, the most recent coming a demoralizing OT setback. They'll be playing their fourth straight away from home and their morale may be at its lowest point of the season. They're 0-4 ATS their last four as neutral site underdogs. Having been upset by the Warhawks in the last meeting, the Red Wolves, 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss, will be "all business" right from the opening tip. Expect them to win this one by double-digits, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine "tournament" games.  

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Both teams have covered the spread in b2b games. The Pelicans victories have arguably been more impressive though. They won outright, by 15 points, at Phoenix. That's no easy task. (Even with that result, the Suns have the best record in the NBA and are tied for the best home record.) Then, the Pelicans followed it up with a 28 point blowout win, at LA. They return home flying high and full of confidence. The Kings also won big in their last game. However, that was against the Thunder, the team with the second worst record in the West. Prior to that, they'd lost four straight. Having lost each of this season's first two meetings, the Pelicans have a score to settle. While the Kings are 1-5 ATS their last six on road games vs. teams with losing home records, the Pelicans are 5-1-1 ATS (or 6-1 ATS) their last seven games vs. teams with losing records, overall. Note that NO has had two days off and also gets tomorrow off. Sacraemento, on the other hand, has had one day off and has a game against San Antonio tomorrow night. With the Kings just 2-8 SU/ATS the past 10 times that they scored 130 or more in their previous game, lay the points with the revenge-minded Pelicans. 

Analysis to follow

I'm playing on GSW. While the Warriors had last night off, the T-Wolves are off a hard-fought win at Minnesota. The Cavs battled back hard in the fourth quarter, forcing Minnesota to give extra effort. The last time that the Wolves played the second of b2b games was less than a week ago. They lost by 31 points. In fact, they're 0-3  ATS when playing the second of b2b games this month (all three losses were by double-digits) and they're now 0-5 ATS their last five in that situation. While they're still less than 100% healthy, having just lost to Dallas, the Warriors are going to be extremely hungry. They're 8-3 SU when off an upset loss. Last time that they were off a loss, they bounced back with a 37-point win. Schedule in their favor, I expect them to bounce back, once again. 

I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. These teams met a week ago, at Miami. The RedHawks were double-digit favorites but lost outright. That will provide them with some added motivation for this one. They've got the superior talent and they don't want to be swept by an inferior opponent. The last time these teams met here was just over a year ago. The RedHawks were laying -6 and they won by 42 points, a 96-54 destruction. Including that result, the RedHawks have won 12 of their last 16 visits here. Even with last week's loss, the Red Hawks are still 19-9 their last 28 against teams with a losing record. With an O/U line in the high 140s, note that CMU is 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. I say the revenge-minded RedHawks elevate their game, en route to a much needed win and cover. 

I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. The Bears are strong in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. Off b2b wins, I believe that they're peaking at the right time. I believe that they're better than their record suggests and I expect them to be fairly tough to beat once the MEAC Conference Tourney begins. Last time out, they won by seven. Last game here, they won by double-digits. This evening's game represents the Bears' final regular season home game. Six seniors will be honored before the game. Needless to say, they want to win their final game here at Hill Field House. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Hawks won this season's earlier meeting. The Bears have won 14 of the past 20 meetings here, most recently an 8-point win in February of 2020. While the Hawks average 64 ppg on the road, the Bears average 88 ppg here at home. They'll be able to dictate the tempo and the Hawks won't be able to keep up. Payback time. 

I'm playing on MARYLAND. Playing at home and he Buckeyes won this season's first meeting. They also won a close one here last season, their third straight win in the series. Enough's enough. The Terps are stronger than their record suggests and they're healthier than they were early on. They won their last game here and they've had this one circled. Note that they'll honoring the 2002 Championship team today, which will help pack in the fans and which should make for a more raucous environment. Off Thursday's win at Illinois, the Buckeyes could be ripe for a letdown. Note that they're 4-7 ATS after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. That 3-point win at Illinois notwithstanding, the Buckeyes have been mostly mediocre on the road. Prior to last season's loss here, the Terps had beaten the Buckeyes four straight times here. The home team is still 4-1 ATS the past five in the series. I'm happy to grab the points but I see Maryland rising to the occasion and scoring the outright win. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Wizards are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off three straight losses, the Cavs are going to be an angry team. Note that all of those losses came on the road. Here at home, the Cavs are 18-9 SU and 17-9-1 ATS, holding visiting teams to only 99.7 points, per game. That's the best mark in the entire NBA. Note that the Cavs are 7-1-1 ATS after playing their previous three or more games on the road. Not only do the Cavs have the venue in their favor but they've also got the schedule working in their favor. They had last night off while the Wizards are off a 2-OT loss against the Spurs. Indeed, this isn't a "typical" b2b spot, as last night's game was extra taxing. Having lost two of this season's three h2h meetings, the Cavs have a score to settle. Expect a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on NEVADA. I've been waiting for this one ever since Wyoming won, at Nevada, last month. The Wolf Pack, 2-1 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss, have been too. The Cowboys, who lost at CSU on Wednesday, are 0-2 ATS when off a Mountain West loss. In both cases, despite being favored, they've had their hands full the next game. Over the past few weeks, Nevada has quietly been playing very well on the road. Last road game, the Pack won by 30 points. In their previous road game, they won by double-digits, at Utah State. Before that, they lost by only two, at San Diego State. Last season's two games here were both decided by seven points or less. Going back further finds the the Pack have won four of their last seven visits here and that all three of the losses were by seven or less. Expect the revenge-minded Wolf Pack to again play their hosts tough, taking the game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the outright win.

I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. I like how this one sets up for the home team. After playing four straight on the road, the Red Wolves returned home and were upset by Coastal Carolina on Wednesday. They're 4-2 SU/ATS their last six off a conference loss though and a profitable 16-9 ATS their last 25 in that situation. They're 11-3 ATS their last 14 off all SU losses and 20-7-1 ATS their last 28, after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. The Red Wolves are also an outstanding 20-6 ATS the past 2+ seasons, excluding pushes, when playing with one day's rest in between games, 6-1 ATS (7-1 SU) their last eight in that situation. They're going to be fired up to avenge a road loss at App. State. While the Mountaineers are below .500 on the road where they average 65.1 ppg, the Wolves are 9-2 at home, where they avg 75.7 ppg. Lay the small number and expect a win and cover for the revenge-minded Red Wolves. 

I'm playing on CHARLOTTE. I believe that the break came at the right time for the Hornets. They'd been struggling and the time off will have provided a chance to get healthy, regroup, and recharge. The Raptors may not have appreciated the break so much, as they'd been playing well. Toronto is 3-5 SU/ATS the past eight times it played with three or more day's rest in between games. Note that the Hornets were off b2b OT losses, prior to the break. So, it wasn't like they weren't fighting. Tonight, they play with 'double-revenge,' as the Raptors have taken both this season's meetings. The most recent of those came earlier this month, when the Hornets were really struggling. They'll be looking for some payback here. Note that prior to this season's two games, the Hornets were a perfect 5-0 ATS their previous five against Toronto. The Hornets returned from their Christmas break and promptly won their next game by 24 points. I look for their best effort again this evening, as they move to 3-1 ATS their past four, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. The Grizzlies won by double-digits when these teams met at Montana. Tonight, playing at home, I expect the revenge-minded Thunderbirds to return the favor. Montana is just 4-9 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 74.7 to 66.5. On the other hand, Southern Utah is 10-3 at home, outscoring teams by a 82.5 to 69.8 average score. The Thunderbirds are 10-7 ATS the past 17 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. The Grizzlies, who have instate rival Montana State on deck, will be playing their second straight on the road. The last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost by a score of 86-63. That was at Idaho State and this is a much tougher venue than that. With the Grizzlies 1-6 ATS their last seven as road underdogs, expect a double-digit win for the revenge-minded home team. 

I'm playing on NORTHEASTERN. Off three straight road losses, the Huskies will be happy to return home. While they've really struggled to win on the road, they've been respectable here at home. They beat Towson their last time on this floor. The Cougars are off b2b losses of their own. Last time out, they lost a tough 80-77 decision. They give up more than 77 ppg on the road and they're 5-7 ATS their last 12, after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. Playing at home, the Cougars won big in this season's first meeting. The Huskies, 3-1 ATS the last four times that they attemped to avenge a road loss, haven't forgotten. Prior to that, the Huskies had beaten them five straight times. Look for them to bounce back and move to 5-1 ATS their last six in the series. 

I'm playing on UC SANTA BARBARA. Homecourt means a lot to both these teams. Playing at home, Long Beach State took this season's first meeting. This evening, I expect the revenge-minded Gauchos to return the favor. When playing on the road, the Beach are getting outscored by an average score of 76.7 to 71.2. On the other hand, the Gauchos outscore visiting teams by an average of 76.7 to 59.6. The Gauchos hit a dominant 50.8% of their field goals here while visiting teams only connect on 38% of theirs. Long Beach State has been on an extended ATS winning streak. This will mark a third straight true road game though, the first time LBSU has been in that scheduling situation this season. The first of those came at Hawaii and the most recent was only 48 hours ago. Playing at perhaps the toughest venue in the conference, expect it to catch up to the Beach tonight, the revenge-minded Gauchos pulling away for a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on LSU. The Gamecocks are off an exciting OT victory. They won't be able to keep it up against a powerful LSU team which is currently hitting on all cylinders. The Tigers dominated Georgia last time out, their third straight win. Darius Days, who had a double-double for the Tigers commented: "When we have all our pieces, we're very hard to beat." While the Gamecocks are fighting hard, they're still a work in progress and they're not going to be ready for the red hot team which they'll encounter this afternoon. Note that the favorite is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight in the series. Going back further finds that the road team is 12-5-1 ATS the past 18 meeting. This has not been a good role for the Gamecocks; they're 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) the past five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Tigers are 50-9 SU the past 59 times that they were listed as favorites. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. 

I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Nuggets are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a loss last time out and having dropped three of four, the Warriors are going to be all business tonight. Added motivation stems from the fact that the Nuggets beat them here, just after Christmas. The Warriors have long had their number here though, winning 34 of the past 50 meetings here. Tonight, they'll return to their winning ways in the series. Note that the Warriors are an outstanding 59-39 ATS in the 'revenge' role the past 2+ seasons, 12-5 ATS (15-2 SU) their last 17. Also, note that GSW didn't have Klay Thompson for the first meeting. The Nuggets are off a 10-point win. However, that game was played at Denver and it came against lowly Orlando. Big difference from what they'll encounter here. Also, note that the Nuggets are 6-8-1 ATS their last 15, when off a double-digit win and 27-38-2 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. While the Nuggets did manage the upset here earlier, they're only mediocre (16-15) on the road while the Warriors are dominant (26-5) at home. The Nuggets get outscored (slightly) on the road while the Warriors outscore visiting teams by an average of 113.5 to 101.3. Obviously, Jokic is a load. He'll put up big numbers, as per usual. Tonight, however, that won't be enough. Curry and co. resume their dominance in the series with a double-digit victory.