New England -3

I cannot fade Brady and Belichick in this game (Bill’s 36th post season game he has coached), simply no way around it. Might be square but I am going with experience and one of the best QB’s ever to play the game.   21 Players on New England roster have played in a Super Bowl.  Atlanta is loaded on offense, but then again so were the Steelers and Big Ben and company were rendered useless for the most part against the Pats defense.  Atlanta faces the #1 scoring defense in the NFL and while I respect, and as a matter of fact have mad respect, for Matty Ice and his weapons, especially Julio Jones who will have his numbers.   

I simply cannot discount Tom Brady’s ability to pick apart zone defenses and the fact Atlanta’s defense has not faced a team like this all year.  I have no doubt Atlanta will compete, their head coach has coached as a coordinator in 3 Super Bowls and won one (coached against Brady too) , however Matt Ryan under pressure at times falls apart, and while we have not seen him too many times this year self-destruct, he can happen and I think the Pats defense and their pass rush will put enough heat on him and he will not have the time allowed to throw the ball and make plays like he did against a very weak Green Bay defense which should frustrate him.  At days end the Pats the better team and I do not see a scenario unless they turn it over like crazy, that Atlanta with their A Game can beat this team.  Turnovers will be key, but Brady has been careful with the ball all year, and the Pats know you cannot give Atlanta added possessions and beat them, no one can because they are a quick strike offense.  The Pats were 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS on the road this season.  Atlanta was 6-2 SU. FACTS -  Better coach, better QB and Better defense, more experience all on the side of the Pats – Makes sense to me, as all that is handicapping 101.

Play 1 Unit on the New England Patriots

BONUS PLAY – Half Unit to 1 Unit – UNDER 59.  Might want to wait on this as it is climbing and may approach 60 by Game time. That is almost 10 TDs to be scored to cover this without the extra points.  No doubt 2 prolific offenses, but the Pats will dink and dunk it and eat clock to keep Ryan and company off the field, and Atlanta may find difficulty scoring in the red zone against the Pats.  Contrarian play but I feel the sharp side on the total.  Nothing comes easy in this game.       

SAME GAME 2 TEAM 6 POINTS TEASER - SIDE AND TOTAL  - POINTS ADDED -  Tease Falcons UP to +9 and Tease Total UP to 65 and take the UNDER - Half Unit.   

BONUS Prop Bets

All Half Unit unless otherwise stated – Off of the Westgate in Las Vegas Prop Sheet – Your moneyline numbers may be slightly different, however these are common props at every outlet I checked.  I will have personally bet every one of these in Vegas for Super Bowl Sunday. 

Will there be a safety – YES +600 (I post this because of the huge payout, put $50 on it and both QB’s if on the 1 or 2 yard line will likely be trying to throw it out of there based on their offense, so it gives this a small chance but worth the stretch as a longshot)

Total Interceptions by BOTH teams OVER 1.5 (-135)

Total TD Passes by Tom Brady OVER 2.5 (even money) 1 UNIT PLAY

Longest Rush by Matt Ryan – OVER 6.5 yards (-110)

Will Matt Ryan throw a TD pass in the First Quarter – YES (-110)

Longest Reception by Julio Jones - OVER 25.5 yards (-110) 1 UNIT PLAY

Total TDs by BOTH TEAMS – Over 6.5 (-150)

Will either team make a field goal in the 1st Quarter – YES (-120)   

First reception by Julian Edelman -  UNDER 9.5 yards – ( -110) 

Dallas -4 to 4.5      *4:40 EST Kick 

Dallas is a complete team.  Good running game, the Best OL in football, QB Prescott is damn good, multiple weapons at WR and they have a defense that is going make the one dimensional offense of Green Bay earn every yard and point.  You cannot win this late in the season with little or no running game, proven fact and Green Bay has none. Green Bay has been on a tear but running up wins in their crappy division with the Lions, Bears and Vikings has not impressed me.  Their best WR Nelson is out for the game, their secondary is so/so and their defense is below average and Dallas have already manhandled the Packers on the road this year.  Add in the fact the Giants imploded last week against Green Bay in a game they were dominating, dropped passes for TD's, giving up a hail Mary, turnovers, and again I am not impressed although we all agree Rodgers is hot and dangerous, you cannot beat Dallas at home who has rest with a make shift passing attack no matter who is QB.  Dallas is poised for a Super Bowl this year guys, got to ride them here, as Green Bays demerits catch up o them here.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.....BONUS opinion on the OVER in this game, there will be some scoring.

2 team 6 Point Teaser - 1 Unit - Points Added.  Tease Dallas to +1.5  and tease the Steelers to +7 against KC.  

#301 - Seattle +5  *4:35 EST

When looking at Atlanta ask yourself a question, who have they played?  The last good team Atlanta played was Kansas City 5 weeks ago and they lost at home.  Think about it.  Their defense stinks, but their offense is a rock star.  They have wins over Tampa, New Orleans, LA Rams, San Fran, Carolina, Lost to Philly who sucks, and lost to San Diego in here as well – just some of their last 10 games.  Seattle is battle tested with a tougher schedule, and also beat the Pats on the road this year, and quite frankly they are doing what beats up the Dirty Birds, playing good defense and pounding the rock.

Play 1 Unit on Seattle

#106 - Steelers -10   *1:05 EST

Bear in mind most teams that win in the playoffs, also cover the spread.  While 10 points looks like a lot of points, and it is, Pittsburgh should destroy Miami.  Miami has won with smoke and mirrors all year, and frankly in 8 of their wins, it could have gone either way.  The Fish let Carson Palmer look like Joe Montana when they played them, they should have lost to the Browns, the list goes on and on, and frankly they are one the worst 10 win teams I have seen in years.  The Steelers are a peak performance, avenging a 15 loss to the Dolphins, and bear in mind Big Ben went down to injury in that game, and Pittsburgh is playing the best football of anyone perhaps outside of Atlanta right now, and have weapons all over the place on offense.  At home is worth 4 points in this game, cold weather and a team from South Beach with a career second string QB pulling the strings.

Play 2 Units on Pittsburgh

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added) – Tease Steelers DOWN to -4 and Tease the NY Giants UP to +10.5 for 1 Unit.  

#101 - Oakland +3.5 to 4    *4:35 EST Saturday 

Leave them for dead on the roadside without QB Carr huh?  Conner Cook has to start, oh well, they are done. Not so fast.   They might be done after this game, but they are a live dog here in my opinion.  Oakland has a mammoth OL, a stud RB and two of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL at WR, and they are better than the Texans.  Already beat them this year.  Last year in the post season Kansas City shut out Houston in this same game and blew them away in here.  Oswiller at QB is average at best to flat out bad at times, he was benched for a guy that was 3rd string last year!  Houston’s defense will contain a pedestrian Houston attack on offense who tried to beat Tennessee last week leaving starters in through the 4th quarter and still could not win, and that was Matt Cassel pulling the strings for the Titans in that one.  Whole world on Houston here, not me. Del Rio has all week for Cook to get coached up.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added) – Half a Unit – Tease Oakland to +9.5 to 10 and Tease Seattle down to -2

#321 - New Orleans Saints +7

Atlanta has a 1st round bye on the line here and Drew Brees and company plan to spoil their rivals celebration if need be.  The Saints are 6-1 ATS their last 7 as a dog, they are #1 in total offense and #1 in total passing offense and while the Dirty Birds are the better team and on a roll and I have cashed them a few times in the past 3 weeks, I like this one to NOT come easy for them and for New Orleans to put up a fight for pride here.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

#304 - New York Jets +3.5

What are the Bills doing laying a number to anyone?  Rex and Rob are gone, their starting QB is benched for financial reasons, the team is a circus right now and NEW is no bargain, but in a battle of 2 bad teams, I will always grab the points- and NY announced they are retaining their head coach and I think they will play harder.

Play 1 Unit on the Jets

Detroit +6.5

Not sold on Dallas being "All in" in this game as they have been assured home field in the playoffs and are division champs with NY losing at Philly Thursday.  They are looking to get to the post season healthy.  That said they wont lay down either, but Detroit in the playoff fight and this is a must win for them.  No doubt they are not the best team here but Stafford has had time to rest his finger, and they will expose a Dallas secondary here and put some points up.  Detroit has had only 2 losses in 10 games, both to playoff teams and 1 of those losses was to the Giants whom beat the Boys twice.  These 2 have played 3 times since 2011 and none of those games were further than 4 points apart.  I think Detroit shows up here and they also have plenty of play-makers.  Stafford and company should keep this close, Detroit is a feisty team.  

Play 1 Unit on Detroit.  

Ravens +5.5

Not sold on Pitt and Ravens better than advertised.,  Yeah they spanked them earlier with Big Ben not 100% but this defense will give Bell issues and Big Ben issues.  This is always a knock down drag out game, nothing comes easy for this division crown.  You can stat this to death, trend it to death, it is Pitt and Baltimore in a dogfight, points at a premium.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore.

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - Tease the Ravens up to +11 and Tease Denver to +9 - 1 Unit 

Buffalo -4

This line will drop by Saturday in my estimation, but it stinks to high heaven.  Rex Ryan playing for his job here or at least pride and QB Moore is not playing the deplorable jets this week.  Back to back roadies for the Fish, Buffalo McCoy is quietly having a hell of a year and I expect the Bills to pull out all the stops here and for Miami to get exposed.  I cannot trust them against this defense and Miami has always struggled in this stadium at 2-9 SU.   With experience when I see a line too good to be true, I fade it.

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo

2 team 6 Point Teaser - 1 Unit - Points Added - tease Green Bay down to -1 and tease Tampa Bay up to +9. 

Redskins -3

Yeah I am taking a team who liked dog crap on Monday but with the playoff hunt in their sites with little hope, so the pressure is off and I think they play loose and I expect this to be a double digit win.  You heard it here first.  Chicago blew their wad against Green Bay in an epic effort last week and RB Howard has impressed, but I expect this Skins offense to pull out every stop against a Bears defense that is suspect to big plays and Reed should have a big day.

Play 1 Unit on the Redskins

Atlanta -3

Short week for Panthers and they are not playing a Redskins team whose offense is hit and miss, Atlanta is a machine on offense, balanced offense and playing better defense than u may think.  Atlanta racked up a whopping  48 points against the Panthers when their defense was healthy in October.  Dirty Birds with weapons all over the place despite Jones absence, and Ryan on fire, and this is a short number for a better team and Carolina off a short week and Newton banged up.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

#101 -Giants -1.5   *8:25 EST 

Line dropping like a rock, GOOD.  This is off of 3.  Usually Thursday Night road teams are a fade but Philly and Carson Wentz are not going to get it done here against this defense of NY which is no joke.  Manning the better QB in this game, better defense and better coach and now a line off a fall number.

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants 

#325 - New England -3

Expect Brady and Bellichek to have a game plan for Denver's defense, who is very suspect to the run, and I see the Pats pounding the rock in this game to set up play action pass with consistent success.  New England is the best team in the NFL bar none and play well in big games.  Denver is an above average team with no running game at all and a 2nd year QB at the helm that is not 100%.  Denver tough at home, but the Pats are hot, Brady does not turn it over and I would not be surprised to see WR Floyd make a debut here. Pats lost in OT in here last year and are in revenge mode, and no Manning at QB for the Bronco's this year! Public bet no doubt, but I think the Pats roll them in here by double digits. 

Play 1 Unit on New England

#317 - Tennessee +5.5 

Look Kansas City is a good team, but overrated and I live in KC.  they get it done with defense and special teams, their offense is pedestrian at best.  The temps in this game at going to be around 8 degrees Sunday and that will have an affect.  Also with KC losing Derrick Johnson at LB, their #1 tackler on the team, they are VERY vulnerable to the run, and DeMarco Murray will get at least 25 touches Sunday and he will get his yards.  Mobile QB Mariota may also be an issue for KC.  This is a 3 point game one way or the other and no doubt low scoring.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

#329 - Pittsburgh -3

Square bet yes, but Cincy is done folks and the Steelers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games in December, because they know when to turn it on.  Big Ben tossed 3 TD's in the first game and none to WR Brown, and right now RB Bell is unstoppable.  Andy Dalton is without weapons on offense and the Steelers are in a dogfight with the Ravens for the Playoffs and this division and they know the Ravens have a high chance of beating Philly this weekend so they will be ready for this one.  The Bengals always play Pitt tough no doubt, but they are limited on offense and their OL is suspect.

Play 1 Unit on Steelers 

Miami -2.5 (NFL)

While QB Matt Moore gets the start, I will take him over Bryce Petty any day of the week, he is a veteran QB with starts under his belt.  If this line was over 3.5 or higher I would take the Jets in what should be a low scoring game, but QB Petty without Forte and Marshall at his disposal in this game and Miami playing lights out for a Playoff berth, I cannot fade them in this spot.  Weather is supposed to be 40 degrees and raining, and Miami just ruins the ball better, and despite a come from behind 17-3 halftime deficit win for the Jets at the hapless 49ers last week, I am taking the Fish to cover the number.

Play 1 Unit on Miami      

Ravens +6.5

No Gronk is gonna hurt this offense.  Speak of the offense of the Pats, the Ravens have the overall #1 defense in the NFL and most important the #1 scoring defense as well.  Flacco off his best game of the year, and the Ravens in a dogfight for the Playoffs and will be dialed in like none other tonight.  Cold weather will hold the score down in my opinion and with fact New England has to redesign the offense and cannot use Gronk as a weapon in the red zone or use him as decoy, it makes them human, and the Raven defense will get after Brady and a sore knee tonight and make this a game.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

BONUS Teaser Half Unit / Same Game - 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added)  - Tease Ravens to +12.5 and tease the Total UP to 51 and take the Under.   

#129 - Atlanta –6

The Rams suck, their offense pathetic, and Atlanta grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory last week against a surging KC team, and I can assure you this game has their full attention with Tampa catching heat and challenging for the division, I expect an all out QB Ryan aerial assault on the Rams this week.  Rams have thrown it in, Atlanta has a ton to play for.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

#109 - Houston +6.5

Sharps all over this one in Vegas and I agree, without the Andrew Luck factor, quite frankly the Colts are a below average team.  Not sold on a blowout of the Jets because the jets have NO QB at all, (I was all over Indy on MNF), but the defense of the Texans should provide issues and quite frankly Indy should not belaying 6 to any team at .500 or better, they are just not that good.  All out game for both sides with division lead on the line (3-way tie right now with Tenn.).  Too many points.  Despite Oswillers struggles Houston still has playmakers and their run game should have a good day.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

#119 - Minnesota –3

Jacksonville stinks, their QB is human turnover machine and has MAJOR issues with a good pass rush, and the Jags cannot run the ball.  Minny did not show up last week, and Zimmer was out, and added time to prepare here and still are alive, but have to win games like this and get back in the hunt, and with the Jags being a comedy of errors CONSISTENTLY in every game, and a short number, I will gladly lay it here.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota

2 Team 6 Point Teaser 2 Unit TOP TEASER PLAY (points added)  Tease Atlanta down to -1.5 and tease Green Bay up to +9 – 2 Units.    

#123 - Washington -2.5

Look, the Eagles are done, their defense will get shredded by a very underestimated QB Cousins, and the Eagles have injuries all over the place.  The Skins in a playoff hunt and motivated off a bad week last week, I fully expect them to dominate this game start to finish, Eagles offense woeful, QB Wentz throwing picks like crazy as well.  Skins roll

TOP PLAY – Play 2 Units

KC -3

Disregarding the Thanksgiving games, the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the Thursday night games for good reason.  2 days of prep and then travel and Oakland off a huge game on Sunday and now travel and the weather is going to be a huge factor, Artic Blast hitting KC (where I live) on Wednesday and Thursday and expect temps below 30 degrees at game time.  KC defense vastly better and know how to shut down the potent Oakland attack, already beat them by 16 in the last game and only laying 3 since Vegas wants split action here.  KC getting it done with WR Hill making huge plays, defense making huge plays, QB Smith taking care of the ball and TE Kelce a 1 man wrecking crew and RB Ware balancing offense.  KC is 20-4 SU their last 24 games and at Arrowhead in this cold, a clear 3 point home field advantage as well.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City  

Colts -1.5

Simply put this is the Colts season.  A Huge game, added rest and prep, and Andrew Luck back in the starting position.  One thing about the Colts, they beat teams they should beat, and lose to ones they should lose to.  A Healthy WR Unit, RB unit and QB for the Colts versus human turnover machine QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and company at the Jets who are a total mess.  Jets 1-4 SU at home and a total mess at QB.  Better QB in this one to get a win and tied for first in their division, Colts will be dialed in.

Play 1 Unit on Indy

BONUS:  Play Half unit on the UNDER 48.5  

Cincy -1

Philly is an injury riddled mess on offense and the have a rookie QB showing his true colors in terms of carrying an offense with an empty arsenal.  While Cincy sucks, their defense shows up every week, and with the home filed, a better QB and better defense the only way to look here.  Cheap number.

Play 1 Unit on Cincinnati

San Fran (PK) 

What the hell is Chicago doing laying a number to anyone, with Barkley at QB?  Did you see Kaepernicks numbers against a decent Miami defense last week.  While San Fran continues to lose, they also continue to play better each week and no one noticing.  Gladly take the points or have it at a pick. 

Play 1 Unit on San Fran

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser- Play 1 Unit (Points Added)  Tease the Steelers Down to a Pick'em and tease Green Bay Down to Pick em...Oh Yeah!    

Dallas -3

Hate taking road teams on Thursday Night but the Vikings offense is woeful and their vaunted defense is suspect against good run teams.  Dallas’s success on offense is well documented, however while the Zek and Dak show grabs all the headlines, it is the offensive line and their ability to dominate the trenches that is key, and they flat out wear defenses down, especially late.  Having 3 huge threats at WR with Beasley, Bryant and Whitten makes them the best offense in football because most team cannot cover in man coverage to stop the run.  I do not see a shootout here but a rough and tuff tumble type game, and with the news that head coach Zimmer is out, who basically runs the defense and is a fiery head coach, and a good one, not sure of the chain of command in this game is going to be good for Minny.  Dallas has 10 days off before their next game so not worried about the Giants on deck after Washington last Sunday.  Short number here for a team on the rise and a consistent one who has lost just 1 spread all year, versus a very inconsistent team who really has struggled trading punches on the scoreboard against good teams. 

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

#258 - Ravens -4

Cincy in free fall, and frankly their offense is horrific lately and now AJ Green and RB Bernard out for the season, Dalton has lost all his weapons and against this DL it will be a long day for fading Cincy.  Cincy's defense is wearing thin, gave up 400+ yards in 3 out of their last 6 games, and with no offense to extend drives, the Ravens and Flacco will wear them down late and pull away.

Play 1 Unit on Baltimore

#261 - San Fran +7.5

Miami is off back to back road games where they stayed on the West Coast and yes they are hot, but have you seen the injury report?  2 OL players out, 2 DL players out and a more than a few others banged up.  San Fran has played better the past few weeks, Kaepernick is actually playing well, RB Hyde is back in form and with a beat up Miami team who is not known in any way as a solid home team bet in the NFL, I will grab the points here.

Play 1 Unit on San Fran

Steelers -7.5

Not sold on Colts beating up Tennessee, Luck has never lost to them.  Pitt is on a short week, with travel off a road game, but overall the talent on the roster for the Steelers is flat out better than Indy’s  and Pitt’s offense should shred the Colts defense. No Luck at QB, the line was 3 to open up and Luck worth a TD on the spread, that would mean 10 - now to 7.5, Steelers despite not being as good as past editions should get all over Indy.

Play 1 Unit on the Steelers. 

Detroit -2.5

Take away the 14 points scored by the defense and the special teams and Minny managed 16 points against Arizona in a knockdown, drag out game and now on a short week travel to Detroit.  Advantage Detroit with home field, home cookin, a better QB and better offense, and a way of coming from behind and finding ways to win games.  Cannot bank on Minny beating a bad Zona team as a team who is on the rise after going 0-4 before that game.  Detroit gets it done.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

Oakland -6

I thought long and hard on this one, and did the match.  If you didn't notice Better QB's are winning games this time of the season and Brock Oswiller had 99 yards throwing the ball last week against Jax.  He has been a huge bust.  Derrick Carr has the weapons on offense, is the better QB and the Crabtree - Cooper Connection with a healthy Murray at RB for Oakland is a lethal combination and I do not see Houston being able to stop it or trade punches.  Houston good at running the ball and I expect the raiders to focus on stopping the run big time and force Houston's QB to make plays, and he has failed all year in big spots and that is the difference.  Houston NOT a good road team and Oakland thrives on the road, 5-0 ATS and SU.  Raiders 30+ points last 3 games and well rested and prepared off bye week.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland 

Washington -3

A real sharp side in Vegas all week, and simply put, short and Sweet - Washington has the better running game - the Better defense and they are at home and they are avenging a Playoff loss to the Packers at home last season, and the Skins have has this one circled since last season. Green Bay is exactly what you think they are, and average team at best, fading fast and a very bad defense and an offense that does not click for some reason with little or running game, so teams are teeing off on QB Rodgers.

Play 1 Unit on Washington  

#472 -Seattle -6.5

Carson Wentz and company a giant killer at home but 0-4 ATS and SU on the road.  Bad news rolling into home of the 12th man.  Seattle has had a grueling schedule as of late and that is a slight concern, but the OL is playing tons better for them, QB Wilson out dueled Tom Brady and is more mobile than he was in the first 5 weeks of the season and the vertical game by Seattle is getting better as well.  15-5 ATS at home for the Hawks as well, on the strongest home field int he NFL.  Going against the rookie who has been shaky the past 4 weeks despite a 11 point win versus Atlanta whose defense is suspect, the Seahawks defense at home is not suspect.

Play 1 Unit on Seattle

#460 - Minnesota -2 to 3

Sharp side in Vegas, tons of Pro Bettors on Vikes here according to my source, and why not.  Arizona has been bad all year, struggled to beat the lowly Niners last week, and as you may recall they also stunk it up all preseason.  They are what they are, a below average team.  Vikes offense no juggernaut but their defense at home should give the Cards more than they can handle and shut down RB Johnson as well.  Since September 25th the Cards have beaten San Fran twice and the Jets, their only wins, they tied Seattle.  Not impressed. 

Play 1 Unit on Minny

BONUS TEASERS - Side Play Teaser - (points added) -  Tease Pittsburgh down to -3 and tease Buffalo up to +9.  TOTALS TEASER (points added) - Tease the Colts / Titans Total DOWN to 46.5 and take the OVER and tease the Jags / Lions Total down to 41.5 and take the OVER

#451 - Tennessee +2.5 to 3

Outright dog winner in my opinion.  Titans getting it done BIG last week against fading Packers and Colts simply have no defense to shut down RB Murray.  Andrew Luck has never lost to Tennessee at 10-0 and don't think the Titans do know it.  Tennessee wants the top spot in this division and they have the better team, and while this should be a shootout, I like Tennessee and an improved QB Mariota with a balanced attack and a better defense to prevail.

Play 1 Unit on the Titans

Carolina  -3

Three things are actually.  Panthers need to salvage some pride at home where they have been dominant and off a rare home loss to KC last time here, I expect the Panthers to pull out all the stops.  Short week plus travel on Thursday is doom for road teams, the better defense is at home as well, and Saints not the same animal away from the dome.  The Saints also off a devastating loss, and frankly the Saints are turnover prone and against an attacking defense, I expect a few turnovers to go the Panthers  way and Saints defense flat out bad.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

NY Giants +1 to Pick

Two things here.  Cincy in prime time is always a fade. QB Dalton and HC Lewis in prime time has always been a fade.  Cincy has lost their mojo, even off a bye not bucking the 3 game win streak of the Giants at home here and while Cincy has AJ Green, Manning has Odell Beckham and even with Cruze out for this one, Cincy cannot run it and I think Manning passes all over Cincy in this one.  Giants have better run defense which makes Bengals one dimensional and NY has one of the better 3rd down defenses in the NFL.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Giants   

Patriots -7.5

Yeah a public side but consider that Brady and company have been on a bye week and bring back 3 starters from injury list and the Seahawks on a short week off a brutal MNF game travel across 3 time zones to play this one.  Seattle’s defense has been on the field a ton in terms of minutes and by mid second half will be exhausted in this one.  Seahawks have no running game and Wilson be we running for his life.  New England with ease by Double Digits.  I have New England as the top team in the NFL in my power ratings and 8 points better here, not counting the situation and home field.  Brady lives for games like this!

Play 1 Unit on New England

New Orleans -3

OK – A second string QB for Denver basically, no CJ Anderson yet, both starting CB’s are out, DE Wolfe now out too.  Saints are playing GREAT BALL and racked up 571 yards last week and Denver cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here despite the Saints defense being less than stellar.  The Bronco’s gave up 30 first downs in Oakland last week, back to back roadies and Brees and company are averaging 33 ppg at home and have handed Seattle a loss in here.  Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Derrick Carr torched them already this year, expect Brees to torch them as well.  Saints 4-1 SU last 5 and have covered 10 out of their last 13 games dating back to last year.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

2 Unit Two Team 6 Point Teaser – Points Added – tease New England down to -1.5 and tease Philly up to +7.5

Denver +1.5

Yeah yeah, Oakland is a good story this year, I had them on the futures bet on over 8 wins and I did that because of their schedule this year early on.  Oakland has racked up tons of points with Carr, Cooper and Crabtree, but the 2 good teams they played with good defense waxed them.  KC beat them in here and allowed just 1`0 points, and Denevers defense light years beytter than any defense they have seen all year.  Look for Denver to win by a TD or more here Sunday Night.

Play 2 Units on Denver.

Two team 6 Point Teaser (points added) - Points Added - Tease Dallas down to -1 and Tease the Tennessee Titans up to +10.5 - Play 1 Unit

Atlanta -3.5 to 4

Making this short gents, the Falcons clearly better, avenging a loss to the Bucs, who played a 5 quarter game against Oakland and lost and now on 3 days rest have to play the high octane Dirty Birds.  Tampa gave up over 500 yards through the air and while Oakland had over 200 yards in penalties, Tampa still lost.  Without Martin at RB, Winston cannot carry the team alone, expect Atlanta even with travel and a short week to get revenge tonight.  Teams playing on Thursday off an OT game are 4-21 ATS and I think Tampa’s defense gets eaten up here.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

BONUS PLAY:   Colorado -13 Half Unit.  

Minnesota -4

The Line dropped off 6, no idea why.  Chicago and Minny, neither one is going to light up the scoreboard (under 40.5 might be worth a sniff for a half unit).  Culter back, and he is Mr. “I Don’t Care” when the going gets tough against good defenses, the Minny has a great defense, shut down corners and a hell of a pass rush for out of shape Jay Cutler tonight, and no doubt rusty.  4 in a bad number to lay on the road I know, but Chicago’s offense 15 ppg and allowing 20 ppg, with Jax coming in here and beating them, I can tell you the Vikings practice under Zimmer since last weeks debacle has been no fun and Minny will be focused.  I trust Bradford more than Cutler here.

Minnesota for 1 Unit 

#272 - Dallas -4  *8:30 EST

Bad number in what is a big game, but Dallas off a bye and Philly off a huge emotional win.  While there is hype over Carson Wentz for Philly, since the bye week he has 3 TD's and 3 Ints, and Philly's defense is getting a lot of press, however they do not stuff the run and with Dallas's OL, and Elliott who leads the NFL in rushing nice and fresh, and at home in Jerry World with a QB in Prescott that does not turn the ball over, I think Dallas jams it down their throat, they have the better rookie QB and while sometimes a  bye week kills momentum, I just do not see a Philly team winning this with Dallas controlling the game with a balanced offense and a strong running attack.  Minny has no offense, but this week they face a well rested machine that can put up yards. 

Play 1 Unit on Dallas 

#256 - Houston -2.5

Simple Math, Houston plays better at home and play a defense that has allowed teams like Houston numerous yards.  Yes Stafford is having a great year, but Houston has had one of the toughest Schedules against stud defenses all season, New England, Minnesota and Denver (all on the road).  Never put into motion what you saw last week and overreact, as Houston looked bad on MNF against an awesome Denver defense who knew how to attack Houston's QB.  Expect a better effort and look for Houston to pound the rock and show Stafford numerous blitz packages as well.  Detroit has no running game either.  Better running game, better defense and at home on a short number.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

#263 - Oakland (pk)

Tampa has a shaky pass defense ands shaky secondary and Oakland stayed put in Florida all week and did not travel and will be dialed in for this one.  Oakland is 4-0 on the road and I am not bucking them against a Tampa team who is off a win against lowly San Fran and I have no illusions, this will be a good game and may come down to kicking and Oakland has a huge advantage there.  Cooper and Crabtree will both have big days and with RB Murray back in the lineup for Oakland, it will keep the defense honest.  Going with Del Rio here as the better coach despite the Raiders defensive woes, they can outscore Tampa, in which this may be a high scoring affair, and we all know Oakland is never say die until the last play.  Tampa 3-15 SU their last 18 at home. 

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added)  - Tease New England DOWN to a PICK EM and tease Indy up to +8.5 - Play 1 Unit

Jax +3.5

While the Jags have failed to live up to expectations, in a battle of bad teams, I always prefer the dog in most cases, and this one is no exception.  Jacksonville has been in tight games, 6 games overall, 2-4 SU but in 4 of those games, those contests were decided by 4 points or less.  Titans off a loss against the Colts who have no defense, and last week was embarrassing for the Jags who had an edge in yards against the high octane Raiders in mid fourth quarter, but the folly of turnovers, a fake punt that worked, and various bonehead coaching calls continued to plague them.  Jax 0-2 the past 2 years in Tennessee and want revenge, and overall they have the more talented team.  Knowing Tennessee cannot put away a game, and they are an unreal 5-18-2 ATS against teams with a losing record their last 25 against sub .500 teams, I am taking the Jags here.

Play 1 Unit on Jacksonville

# 478- Denver -7.5  *8:30 EST 

Denver on a 2 game losing slide that I see getting reversed here and Houston banged up with key position players playing at less than 100%.  Add in the fact Denver’s defense is the best one on the field, their running game in better and also the fact that Houston has played 2 good teams all season and got blown out by both of them.  Denver with added time to prepare for this one and home field clearly worth 3 full points here.  QB Osweiler returns to his old team, the Defense may have a little extra something special for him.   Colts gave Houston a game and had them shut down on offense with the NFL’s worst defense all but for 7 minutes of that game, what do you think Denver will do to them, especially with shut down corners? 

Play 1 Unit on Denver

BONUS 2 team same game 6 Point Teaser – Side and Total - – Teaser Denver DOWN to -1.5 and Tease the Total UP to 46.5 and take the Under. 

Pats -7

Look this is square as hell, on the side of the public however no Big Ben is a HUGE deal ands worth a 7 point deduction for the Steelers, Jones at QB is no bargain.   and Brady and company clicking none other, and the Pats defense Top 3 in the NFL and is shutting down good teams, and quite frankly are they are best unit on the field this Sunday.  Pats defense is NO joke, and against this offense without their leader is a mismatch.  Without Big Ben and many 3 and outs, look for brady to pick apart the NFL's 30th ranked pass D, especially late.  

Play 1 Unit on New England

#469 - San Diego +6.5

The Falcons defense will have issues with the Chargers passing game and Rivers is tearing it up this year.  Off a brutal game against Seattle and travel and the Chargers off a long rest after beating Denver dead to rights last Thursday, I will grab the points here in what should be a shootout..  Chargers 4-2 ATS this year and could have damn near every game they were in. 

Play 1 Unit on San Diego

#455 - Saints +6 to 6.5 

Look KC will not put up a ton of points against anyone, even the Saints .  They will pound the rock like last week against Oakland and try and keep a high powered offense off the field, but Drew Brees is crafty and will in fact get off some big plays and verticles against KC who is off a huge win, but against good offensive teams KC cannot trade punches all day.  Look for KC to try and grind it out and New Orleans to hang tight here, in what should be a good game.  70 degrees and Sunny, no nasty winter weather for the dome team to contend with.  KC does not have the resume to lay this number yet.  

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added)- Tease Miami to +8.5 and Tease Minnesota to +9

Chicago +7.5

Off a rough weekend for the Packers, they have serious issues on defense, especially in the secondary with 3 starters out, all CB's which is troublesome as QB Hoyer has been lighting it up with 300+ yard passing days in each of the past 3 weeks.  Green Bay looks lethargic on offense and Dallas whipped them badly 4 days ago.  Hoyer playing better than Rodgers right now which is shocking, GB lacks chemistry on offense and Rodgers accuracy has been horrible lately.   My Vegas oddsmaker contact told me this morning that all sharpo action has been on the Bears from his bigger players in Las vegas, and the line has dropped a half point because it was at 8, buit still over the key number of 7 tonight.  Not sold pon Packers defense, not sold on a banged up running game with serious injuries (Lacy and Starks out) there as well as they picked up RB Davis from KC, who was a 4th stringer for the Chiefs.   Chicago keeps it closer than the spread, although I expect a Packer win but this won;t come easy.  

Play 1 Unit on Chicago.

NY Jets +7.5 to 8.5

So without Palmer this line would have 4 to 4.5 (according to my oddsmaker source in Vegas at CG Technology)  and with Palmer is is anywhere from -7.5 to -8.5. Not sure the way Palmer has played he warrants that type of line move in all honesty.  Jets are in a slide and look to be an easy fade here, 3 losses, all 3 by double digits, but the good news QB Fitzpatrick did not have an interception last week after having 9 of them the two weeks previous.  Yeah playing Seattle and Pittsburgh is tough duty back to back for the Jets.  Not sure that a win over San Fran and putting up 33 is all that impressive as the Cards have underperformed all year, and quite frankly Carson Palmer has looked like dog doo doo all season including the preseason.  With Stanton at QB it forced the Cards to feature the run more which was a good deal against a banged up Niners defense, however the Jets defense, given some rest with some offensive production, can and will slow down RB Johnson and put plenty of heat on Palmer as well.  Arizona has Seattle and Carolina on deck, and even though rested we are betting into this number more than anything and taking the big points with the Jets who have failed to put it all together, but at days end a 2-3 team laying these points with wins over Tampa at home and San Fran to their credit is not warranted in my book.  Remember Todd Bowles was Arians defensive coordinator before taking teh Jets job and knows the cards system well. 

Play 1 Unit on the Jets 

#276 - Houston -3   *8:30 EST (seeing 2.5 at some shops) Public will love Indy....

I cannot make a case for Indy here who was outgained by hapless Chicago last week 522-396 and still won.  After a trip to London, then Da Bears and now travel, an exhausting 3 weeks for the Colts who play absolutely NO defense and folks that is a problem on the road in the NFL, bad defenses get beat.  Houston a cover machine at home, and their defense should have a big day against a weak offensive line who has allowed 21 sacks to date and a pissed off defense who got waxed last week at Houston will be dialed in to attack QB Luck.  Practice has been no fun under O'Brien this week after last weeks total meltdown in Minny, Houston more than capable at home here, especially on defense,  and I think they hold the Colts down on offense in this one and win by a TD or more at home.  This is a sharp move in Vegas this week. 

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#269 - Kansas City -1

This is sharp money move in Vegas.  My source in Vegas tells me the sharps hit this early all week long, a wise guy side.  Oakland is rolling but we given their last few games late in the game as they continue to win with no defense.  With San Diego winning Thursday and Oakland at the top of the standings in the AFC West, this is a HUGE game for KC who is off a bye week and they will have a healthy Jamal Charles, and he and Travis Kelce at TE should have a huge day against this defense of Oakland.  The line stinks as Oddsmakers begging you to take Oakland who is trolling, why do you think that is?  KC 10-3 ATS last 13 in Oakland, always a bitter rivalry type game, KC rested and prepared gets it done.

Play 1 Unit on KC

#257 - Pittsburgh -7

I simply cannot back Miami, who maybe one of the worst teams in the NFL against one of the best teams.  Big Ben and company should shred this defense, and if you have been living under a rock, Miami has NO protection for their QB, their offensive line is Swiss cheese, and Miami is the worst home cover team in the NFL over the last 3 years.  Pitt clearly a TD better and then some.  Square side yes, but also the right side.  If you have the Steelers left in your survivor pool, this is the week to use them.  I have been burnt on public sides this year twice, but this is a total mis-match.

Play 1 Unit on Pitt

2 Team 6 Point Teaser (points added) - Tease Tennessee Titans to -1 and the Baltimore Ravens +9.   

#251 - Cincy +8.5 to 9

Well a team who looked horrific last week at Dallas against 2 rookies, versus a team who looked awesome, the over reaction by the public as Oddsmakers make you pay for Tom Brady at home after waxing the hapless Browns.  New England is a huge public team along with Pittsburgh and Dallas every week, this number is too high as I expect the Bengals to bounce back a and make a good showing.  The Pats real strength is not heir offense, but their #3 ranked defense, however I expect QB Dalton and company to move the chains ands make this interesting. 

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

San Diego +3

One of the biggest bettors in Las vegas hit the book early this morning with a 50 dime wager not only on the Chargers but the same amount of money on the moneyline for SD to win Straight up.  The ML in Vegas on Denver dropped from -185 to -150 on this and all books reacted.  The oddsmakers will not raise the line on the hook because sharps will crush them on it but ML did drop. This info comes courtesy of an oddsmakers I communicate with on a daily basis and this particular sharp (I cannot name him) I do follow and the guy rarely loses and is a low volume big player.  I did like SD all week but was still working up the game when this went down.   The Chargers have grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat all year and this looks way too easy to lay a short number with Denver, who got hammered last week with Atlanta at home, and frankly their QB situation is not all that stable and the Chargers Mike McCoy is really coaching for his life in this game.  Rivers the better QB, SD at home, whole season on the line in the AFC West here,  after they came up short against Oakland last week and already lost to KC after a 3 TD lead in their opener.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego

#475 - Tampa Bay + 5.5   *8:30 est 

Without Newton or Stewart, and a banged up LB Davis. despite Anderson’s past record against Tampa, I am taking the points here gents.  Sometimes when it is too good to be true in the NFL, it is not.  Look at Philly yesterday, the line stunk, was easy money and Detroit wins SU, and I drank the kool aide on that one, I will not do it again.  Carolina has looked horrific all year and now without Cam with their back against the wall it will not come easy.  Tampa can move the ball and if turnovers subside for them this could real interesting down the stretch for Tampa in this one.  The Super Bowl loser curse in full effect.

Play 1 Unit on Tampa

Bonus teaser HALF UNIT – Tease Tampa Up to +11.5  and Tease the Total UP to 52 and take the Under.

#471 -Cincy -1.5

OK Dallas has had a soft schedule, not sold on them in this game. Why do you think they are an underdog, besides the fact they have won just 1 game at home in their last 9?   Better coach, better QB for the Bengals.  Yeah I said it, Sherman has wernt to the Playoffs 5 years in a row, Jason Garrett cannot manage a clock.   Dalton is a stud, Cincy’s defense is better and Dallas will have their hands full against DL and Elliott will not run wild in this one. I will take Dalton over Prescott any day of the week, Dallas goes down here. Cincy added rest off a Thursday blowout, and Dallas off travel too.  Did I mention no Dez Bryant?  That’s a game changer.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

#461 - Philly -3

Biggest square bet on the board, biggest bet on any team at this number in Vegas this season to date, that is direct from my Las Vegas Oddsmakers mouth, most money all on 1 side in a game all year in Vegas, for good reason.  Detroit could not beat Chicago with Hoyer at QB, 2 RB’s out and half of the Bears secondary out.  WOW.  Philly off a bye and rested, and Philly DC Jim Schwartz returns back to Detroit where he was fired.  Perhaps Philly regresses a little now that teams have film on Carson Wentz, I just do not see the Lions hanging tough for 4 quarters here.  I am drinking the kool aide here. 

Play 1 Unit on Philly  

#453 - Tennessee +3.5

The hook might be enough.  Hurricane Matthew no doubt a distraction, and Miami should not be laying points to anyone as Adam Gase cannot his offense on track, Tannehill not the right QB for his system and the defense of the fish vastly over rated.  Tennessee won on the road at Detroit, Murray should have a big day running it and I cannot and will not lay points with a bad Dolphins team with NO OL right now and Dick LaBeau’s defense will blitz the dog crap out of him all day.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

NY Giants +4 
Look the Vikings cannot sustain the current pace, coming off a huge upset win, and a team where the defense has scored more TD's than the offense, not to mention the human turnover machine Sam Bradford has yet to throw a pick.  Chances are, and I am a gambling man that he will, and the Giants will cover this number.  Manning and company, Beckham and Cruze and a good running game will in fact keep pace despite the awesome defense that Minny has employed.  Your starting RB and QB out for the season and still undefeated SU and ATS.  I get that momentum however this is a bad number to lay against a capable team still stinging after giving a game away last week due to mistakes and turnovers and NY has the best QB playing in this game.  Good matchup with McAdoo (offense) and Zimmer (defense) at head coaches.  Sooner or later the monster cover streak Minny is on will go the pother way, it always does guys.  
Play 1 Unit on the NY Giants 
BONUS TEASER (same game 6 pointer - points added) - Tease NY to +10 and tease the Total up to 49 and take the UNDER 

#261 - Detroit -3
The fact this number is under the fall numer of 3 or at least getting it on 3 is crucial.  The Bears are the only team in the NFL that is 0-3 ATS, and for a reason.  An injury riddled secondary, and a QB situation that is dire, not to mention the top 2 RB's on the roster are out for this game and Cutler is 50/50 to play, and I hope he does, he is a human turnover machine against good defensive fronts (So is Hoyer), and Detroit has one.  The Lions QB Staffords is 3rd in passing in the NFL.  Better QB, better team overall, and healthier.
Play 1 Unit on Detroit

#264 - Houston -4.5
Tennessee could not even muster more than 10 points at home against Oakland's porous defense last week, and despite JJ Watt's departure, Houston is a tough team, beat a good KC team in here 2 weeks ago and they are clicking right now.  They also have had 10 days to prepare for this game off an ass kicking on Thursday Night Football against the Pats.  Bill O'Brien will have them ready for this one and doubt Tennessee has more than 10 points.
Play 1 Unit on Houston

#259 - Carolina -3
Here it is- Carolina struggled against good defenses, Atlanta does not have one.  This is where Carolina shines this week, and their offense, running game and Newton will all be on high alert against a defense that cannot stop the run, off a short week after MNF, and Carolina avenging their only loss last year in here as well.  Matt Ryan struggles against good defenses, and flourish's against bad ones ;like he did Monday and I was all over him.  Not today, Panthers defense shuts down Atlanta and Carolina off a loss here, and under pressure, must win game for Carolina, is my top play.  
Play 2 Units on Carolina - TOP PLAY

Cincy -7.5

Why is this line so high after Denver waxed Cincy in their own house Sunday?  Because oddsmakers are baiting you to take the points here.  I am not falling for this trap line even with a hook and on a fall number, they are fully expecting Cincy to win big here.  Miami is poorly coached, the Browns outplayed and dominated them in the 4th quarter last week, the close number against New England a few weeks ago was a hoax, as most of their points came in garbage time after the Pats put them away.Also we have all seen Seattles offensive woes this season so a close one there was not impressive, they gave away the game.  

Cincy at home on short week is at a huge advantage and I am not sold on Miami despite their defense and Dalton's OL in pass protection leaves a lot to be desired.  Cincy got their run game going last week, and play action passing off that should bear fruit for the Bengals.  Bear in mind Miami almost got beat by the Browns folks and while you cannot put stalk into what you last saw all the time and expect the same in the NFL, Miami has yet to put it together and Cincy has the most talented and deep roster in the AFC despite their coaching at times and should win by 10+ here.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy - lay it. 

Atlanta +3
A Westgate Supercontest pick here, I am on the Dirty Birds, as I was last week against Oakland - and Oakland beat New orleans in Week 1 in here.  New Orleans in the Dome is not feared anymore and nor they should be at 4-10 ATS their last 14 at home.  They managed 1 TD last week against a below average Giants defense and their defense in general is flat out bad.  Matt Ryan does love to throw picks, which always is a risk but all the weapons on his side of the ball is scary at the WR position and I rate Atlanta's defense slightly better than New Orleans.  Atlanta playing with Double revenge as New Orleans swept them last year including being a 5 point dog at Atlanta,and despite the chants that the Saints cannot go 0-3 with Brees and Sean Peyton pulling the strings and gunslinging all over the place, with no defense and a bad team in my opinion, they do start 0-3.  
Play 1 Unit on Atlanta
2 Team Same Game 6 Point teaser - tease Atlanta to +9 and tease the Total up to 59.5 and take the UNDER. 

#481 - Pittsburgh -3.5
Yep - Drinking the Kool Aid and laying the hook on a huge Public side and betting square, but Philly beating up a bad Browns team and a bad Bears team impresses me little.  I will not bet against Big Ben versus a rookie QB that has yet to see a team as physical as the Steelers, and Tomlin the better coach in this game as well. The defense for the Eagles has been decent this year (bear in mind they faced RG III and a bad Jay Cutler)  which was unexpected however they have yet to face a QB of this caliber and RB Williams is leading the NFL in rushing. All the weapons and experience at QB on the Steelers side here. Whats not to like at under 4 points for the Steelers?  Trust me, the secondary of the Bears that Wentz saw last week was a like a JUCO team compared the Steelers, it will not come easy this week.
Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh

#471 - Washington +3.5
Yes an ugly call here that might raise your eyebrows, with lack of chemistry on offense but not sold completely on the Giants defense and they have been winning close games all season.  This is a must win for the Skins or they go 3 games down to NY in the NFC East, and they were the division champs last season.  I say Norman can shut down 1 outlet for Manning at WR whether it be Cruze or Beckham, and the Skins should be able to put some points up and not have red zone issues here near as poorly as the first 2 games.  Over the fall number of 3 is crucial here.  Expect and all out effort from Washington today as they have circled the wagons this week for this game.
Play 1 Unit on Washington

Bears -3 

Do you think John Fox is going to let a rookie QB come in and beat his Bears tonight in their home opener?  His key weapon at Tight End is out tonight – which is a big deal guys!  While the Bears are not all that, beating up on Cleveland last week does not impress me on the Eagles side of things either.  Chicago has had added time to let the second half debacle against a very good Houston team last week set in, and I expect Cutler and company to find success against a young Eagle’s defense and put up enough points to cover the number at home here.  It is crucial that Chicago does not go down 0-2 in their division with all other teams having at least 1 win.  64% of public supporting the Eagles, I like the home team who people think stink after last weeks debacle in Houston.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

Green Bay -2.5

Looks like a take on Sunday night for a home dog – I think not and I will tell you why in 2 words – SAM BRADFORD.  A total turnover machine who does not have the whole playbook at his disposal against one of the best teams in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers laying less than a FG in this game with his full complement of WR’s and Lacey thinner and meaner at RB?  I know a new stadium opening and prime time TV and ect, Minny not all that and beat a mediocre team last week and had to come from behind to do it.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay

Indy +6.5

Yeah they lost to the Lions at home in a thriller, but they managed a ton of points against a good Lions defense.  Andrew Luck the best QB in this game, and although they won’t run it A TON AGAINST THIS FRONT FOUR, NOT SOLD ON Denver even with added time, to get into a shootout with Indy and cover a big number with a damn near rookie QB and a line that looks to0 good to be true.  Indy hangs around, never gives up and QB Luck a big time gamer.  This is a sharp side in Vegas guys, against the public.

Play 1 Unit on Indy

Atlanta +4.5 to 5

Oakland ready for primetime laying points?  This will be a flat out shootout and while Oakland will put up points, have no illusions, Atlanta will too.  Matt Ryan has 3 weapons to throw to, a run game and I like their chances here with Oakland off a huge emotional win on the road last week, and remember New Orleans plays no defense what so ever. 3-point game either way.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

#482 - San Fran +2.5
Should be a snooze fest on offense (Under worth a look), however the home team here I feel has the better chance to get tit done.  Gabbert is the QB and that is a tough bet to swallow with him at QB, but Chip Kelly is always gunning and taking chances and I feel the trench war will be won by by an underrated unit on both sides of the ball for San Fran.  the LA Rams Keenum at QB is no bargain, he is a career backup starting as they groom their top QB pick, and San Fran will be locked and loaded to stop RB Gurley which will be the Rams main weapon tonight.  Rams over valued here.
Play 1 Unit on San Fran 
Two team 6 Point Teaser (points added).  Tease Washington to +9 and tease the Total in the Rams / Niners game to 48.5 and take the UNDER - 1 Unit

#473  -NY Giants +1

Dak Prescott and RB Elliott are rookies!  Without Romo the Cowboys have lost 23 out of 33 SU and despite a good OL, not sure they dominate enough for 2 rookies to steal the show against Manning and company and an improved defense for NY.  The Giants have not beaten Dallas since 2012, losers of 7 straight and they will have their A game for this one.   The rookie QB has everyone who is a Dallas backer excited after a stellar Preseason, but I have seen this hundreds of times in my 25 years of capping, August NFLX games are not the regular season and expect NY to attack him and confuse h8im with schemes and coverages.  NY wins outright.

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants

#475 - Lions +3

Unreal as it sounds the Lions are 4-1 SU in season openers the last 5 years, and they should win this game outright.  Indy's OL and DL is a mess, and Andrew Luck is not surrounded by the better talent, QB Matt Stafford is for the Lions.  A 1-2 punch at RB, good WR's even without Megatron this year, and the real mismatch is in the trenches that is an advantage for the Lions.  Indy will not be able to run it and Detroit will.  Also Indy's best cover corner is out and their secondary is very suspect. Lions very underrated in my opinion and are no easy out for anyone.  

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

#463 - Chargers +6.5

Justin Houston out for KC, RB Charles is out and KC’s secondary is going to give up big plays, and stud Eric Berry just returned to camp after a holdout and had no preseason work.  QB Rivers for the Chargers has now a decent OL in place and weapons around him and I feel he will exploit a bad secondary for KC and without Houston at LB for KC, I think that is a huge hot for the defense.  KC is not explosive on offense and have nothing behind QB Smith as they traded away their best option to Philly, so if he goes down for any reason, Foles is not any help.  Philip Rivers the better QB in this game and the Bolts have not forgot the 0-2 effort against KC last year where they were outscored 46-6.  Oh by the way SD has not beaten KC in 2 years as KC is 4-0 SU, Chargers will be dialed in for this one.  This could go either way but too many points for KC to cover in week 1 even at home.  Alex Smith for KC cannot stretch the field vertically, nothing has changed and against a stout SD secondary he won’t take chances and either will Reid with his conservative play calling.  Tight game in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego

#101 - Carolina -5.5   6:30 EST Kickoff

Yeah, shoulda bet this at -4 or 4.5 but I did not know the public would pound Carolina like they did, but they are BY FAR the better team.  Yes it is a square side and this is a ton of points in the Super Bowl but Carolina is flat out a TD to 10 points better.  The Panthers just lit up 2 of the best defenses in the NFL outside of Denver for 80 points.  Cam Newton is going to prove difficult to defend for Wade Philips and a great defense here.  While this is a bunch of no name guys on offense outside of TE Olsen, they are effective and have great chemistry and role play well,  and make big plays when Newton buys time in the pocket.  Something Brady and Big Ben were unable to do against Denver’s defense.   Carolina just finds ways to pick apart good defenses.  Denver has a great defense, but an offense that struggles in the red zone, and a team overall who has really struggled in their last 3 games to win, and quite frankly their red zone offense sucks, and they will struggle with one of the better defenses they have seen in months.  I am a Manning fan, but he is washed up and a shell of his old self.  The Panthers are fearless, opportunistic, have the best record in the NFL at 17-1 which is no accident, and have the league MVP at QB.   Square side, yes, but the right side, just cannot take Manning and an inefficient offense against Panther defense to cover the number although it is a good number for a dog in a big game.  I think Panthers by 10.

Play 1 Unit on Carolina

Totals Play – 1 Unit on the UNDER 45

SAME GAME TEASE – 6 Point Side / Total Tease – Tease Carolina to +.5 and Tease the Total UP to 51 and take the UNDER.

PROPS - ALL LINES ARE FROM CG TECHNOLOGY IN LAS VEGAS – You can find these Props at almost any book but the moneyline might be slightly different – these are common props found almost everywhere, some of the numbers might vary slightly.  All are 1 Unit Plays with the exception of the Top Play first half line play.

1.        TOP PROP BET – Panthers -3 / First Half Line – Panthers get out of the gate in a hurry, especially in their last 2 games and I expect that to continue.  2 UNIT PLAY -120

2.       Will Greg Olsen (Panthers) Score a TD?  YES at +120

3.       Total combined Interceptions OVER 1.5 at -130 – You have 2 good secondary’s guys.  I think Manning will have 2!

4.       Ted Ginn Jr. (Panthers)  OVER 2 receptions -115

5.       Greg Olsen (Panthers) OVER 73.5 yards receiving -120 – Cam Newton’s go to guy – they surely are not going to use him as a decoy!

6.       Peyton Manning (Bronco’s) UNDER 34.5 pass attempts – 115 .   Lots of 3 and outs and Denver WANTS to run the ball. 

AND FOR A LONGSHOT – Play a half unit on – YES there will be a safety +700!  

Thanks for all your biz this season in the NFL.  Over 65% all in, close top 70% with Teasers added.  Good Year of profits and lots of top plays cashing too.  Best of Luck, see ya next August for NFLX!  Tony G 

Denver +3

Taking Manning over Brady – but that is not the tale here.  It is Denver to beat New England Straight up.  Better defense at home getting points.  Better running game at home getting points in a Championship game.  Basic Handicapping rules 101!  TAKE THE POINTS  Denver should be able to run it right at New England all day.  Manning will have success through the air if this is the case.  On the other hand New England’s greatest strength is passing it, and they face a team who can get after the QB and sack him (NFL high 52 sacks this year) unlike Kansas City last week, and Denver has the best pass defense in the NFL.  Mile High Stadium also worth a couple of points here, and New England has not been a good road team this year. 

Play 1 Unit on Denver

Carolina -2.5

Getting this under a field goal is a great line.  If not for Blair Walsh missing a 27 yard shank FG last week, Seattle would not be here.  Carolina well rested, at home where they are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS and score 30 ppg on offense and allow 17 ppg on defense.  This is a 1 loss team that has the NFL’s MVP starting at QB (he will win it) and between Newton and Wilson, I will take Newton who already has beat Seattle on the road this year and Carolina is avenging a bad playoff loss to Seattle last year.  All the makings of a good game here, but a home team with a rock start QB, better running game and just as good of defense with Newton at the helm is a take.

Play 3 Units on Carolina 

New England -4 to 5

My hear is with KC since I live here, but it also gives me clarity for KC.  Their biggest weapon is Smith running it in busted pass blocking for him, the Pats can take that away.  Also no WR is going to open long enough for Smith to throw it.  Andy Reid makes bonehead calls, always has, and he is 1-4 as a head coach versus Mr. Hoodie.  Brady versus Alex Smith is also a no brainer.  KC will have issues running it against the Pats DL and not sure if they double up on Kelce at TE, how KC is going to score.  Injuries are an issue and the OL of the Pats is suspect, but it is Bready at home in the Playoffs, and his teams pedigree and experience, they win by a TD to 10 points.

Play 1 Unit on New England

 #108 -Washington (Pick) TO -1

What’s not to like about Washington.  After getting hammered by Carolina, QB Cousins ripped off 14 TD passes and 1 pick and Washington is playing at home against a Green Bay team in disarray, off a bad loss, and quite frankly an OL that is total cheesecloth. Rodgers has no time to throw the ball, they cannot run it either with any consistency.  I do not see even with Rodgers at QB the Packers just flipping a switch and playing great ball because the last 6 weeks or so have been flat out bad football.  They are an average team at best, could not even win a crappy division and they had at least 5 wins this year where they were totally outplayed.

Play 2 Units on Washington – TOP PLAY

BONUS 2 Team 6 Point Teaser – tease Minny to +11 and Tease Washington to +6 – Play 1 Unit 

Minnesota +5

Going take Minny to Cover and Seattle to win.  With frigid temps at -20 in this game on the field, Minny has practiced outside all week, Seattle has been indoors.  While Seattle has experience, the legion of boom, and Russel Wilson, Minny has revenge on their mind and in a game where running the ball is going to be very important that favors Minny, and Minny has a healthy defense as opposed to the last game, and AP running the ball for Minny is going to be huge.  I expect a low scoring game which brings points into play, and I see a down to wire game here and Zimmer will have his boys ready.  Do not read too much into the Arizona win last week for Seattle, St Louis punked them in their house the week before.

Play 1 Unit on Minny

Kansas City -3

Going with a hot team, KC who is on a 10-0 run, 7-3 ATS and fund a way to almost win their division after a 1-5 start.  Ask yourself this question, who has the better coach and better QB?  That is Kansas City.  A strong running game, a QB that does not turn it over a a ball hawking secondary up against QB Hoyer and a better than average defense with Andy Reid calling the shots.  KC has struggled in the post season but you cannot deny a 10 game run and Houston has issues on offense.  KC also has great special teams.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

Minnesota +3 - may wait to get 3.5 everywhere..line going up...public loves to bet the Packers! 
Not laying points with Green Bay here, last week they were exposed and Minny playing with revenge here after a home loss and Zimmer will have his boys fired up and look for Petersen to have a big day here.  Green Bay's offense is not in sync and the defense is overworked because of it, Minny finds a way here to win SU.
Play 1 Unit on Minny

Seattle +6.5 
Zona really has nothing to play for and this line is an over reaction to Zona's blowout of a very over rated Packer team and a Seahawks loss last week to a feisty Rams team.  Doubt Seattle lays down here under Carroll and catching them off a loss getting almost a TD against a team looking to get into the playoffs healthy is a gift.
Play 1 Unit on Seattle

Oakland +7 to 7.5
Kansas City's offense is not all that good and Oakland always gives KC fits.  A lot on the line for KC here and Del Rio will pull out all the stops against a hated rival, KC has their 2 best players out on defense in Houston and Hali and have no pass rush, and I doubt QB Carr turns it over 3 times in the second half this time around.   Also moving this game to later in the day is an advantage for Oakland. 
Play 1 Unit on Oakland

2 Team 6 Points Teaser - Play 1 Unit - Tease Buffalo to +8.5 and tease Pittsburgh down to -5.  

Cincy +4
All the money on Denver here, I am taking the points over the fall numer of 3 herte with a team who is just as good as Denver folks.  9 degrees at kickoff for this one and I expect Cincy to be able to put up some points and make this close.  Both teams playing for a ton on the line here including Cincy getting a first round bye in playoffs.,  The last 2 weeks Denver has failed to score a TD in the second half and while McCarron is the QB for Denver, he has performed well and has plenty of weapons.  Denver just 3-4 last 7 games and they had 12 penalties for 127 yards last week where they got blew out in the second half 21-0 against the Steelers.
Play 1 Unit on Cincy
Same Game Tease - FULL UNIT - Tease Cincy to +10 and the Total TEASE UP to 46 and take the Under. 

NY Giants +7

Moved through 6 to 7 on the line.  NY has the better QB and this line a over reaction to Odell Beckam being out in this game.  Minny does not have the weapons to expose a weak NY Giant secondary and Petersen not 100% for this game either.  NY has rallied in their last 2 games and almost beat the Panthers last week, as Tom Couglin coached teams never throw it in folks.  NY in a must win with Skins winning last night, Minny over rated.

Play 1 Unit on the G Men - NY Giants 

Green Bay +4.5
Good number to grab Aaron Rodgers and a determined Packers bunch trying to win a division against a team who is already a division champ and trying to stay healthy.  It is also noted Carson Palmer has a bad finger issue and may not play the entire game.  Green Bay needs it, Zona does not and Green Bays running attack back in sync and they provide a much stiffer challenge than the hapless Eagles. 
Play 1 Unit on Green Bay 

2 Team 6 Point Teaser - 1 Unit.  Tease Green Bay to +10 and Tease the NY Jets to +9.5

Dallas +6
What is Buffalo doing laying 6 to anyone.  QB Moore from Boise St is a BETTER Option than Matt Cassel, and Dallas has the running game going.  Buffalo dejected after getting eliminated from her playoffs last week and are in a slide here, Dallas has the better talent overall and this is a huge number.  Word is also there is much locker dissention on the Bills side.
Play 1 Unit on Dallas

New Orleans -2.5

Nothing to play for here, but Drew Brees at home and an inept Lions offense is a mis match gents, plain and simple.  The Lions and the Saints defenses are BOTH DEPLORABLE and both QB’s should find success through the air and the running game should work for both, however the Lions have averaged a paltry 17 ppg on offense on the road this season and New Orleans scores 31 ppg at home this season and remember 2 weeks ago lit up Carolina’s vaunted defense like a Christmas Tree in a game they could have won.  Brees is better than Stafford and the overall offense of the Saints is better the Lions, they are at home which is worth 3 points and Brees has been exception on NFL over the years racking up 47—yards on MNF and remember the Lions are on back to back roadies and lost to the lowly Rams last week on the road in a dome, and the Saints coaching staff is vastly better than the Lions as well.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans 

Steelers -6.5

Yes I am laying it here gents, Pitts offense has eclipsed 30 ppg their last 5 games and Denver secondary is all banged up, and Ben Ben is on fire, and who will cover Antonio Brown.  The Steelers are peaking and need this win big time and in a surprise, I think this might be one of the bigger blowouts of the day.  Denver ran the ball for 35 yards last week on 21 carries and have had serious issues scoring TDs. They have had 1 in the last 2 weeks.  Back to back roadies for Denver as well.  They will be calling for Peyton Manning after this one, and he did practice this week. Might make a great tease play as well. 

Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh

Green Bay -3

We get a soft line here, and NO this is not a square bet.  The Raiders allow a ton of yards after the catch and Green Bay is very good at getting added yards after the catch, and also we have an Eddie Lacey sighting, as he came out like a beast last week in a romp over Dallas.   Bear in mind although the line is at -3 because the Raiders upset Denver last week, Denvers backup QB went 35 out of 51, Denver justy could not covert yards into scores, and that will not be the case for Green Bay.  Aaron Rodgers returns to the Bay area where he is fromn and will want to impress, Green Bay vastly better in all areas and played a better brand of defense last week.  Oakland is better than previous editions under Del Rio, but they are not good enough to beat two winning teams in back to back fashion.  Carr also has been throwing picks lately.  Oddsmakers left a soft line here – PERIOD – Green Bay gets good this time of year if you have not noticed in the past few years.

Play 2 Units on Green Bay – TOP PLAY

Bears +6

Yep – Ugly but Minny missing 4 starters on defense and their offense has failed to top 20 points in either of their last 4 games and they are fading.  Good Cutler or Bad Cutler, but I feel after last weeks debacle Cutler will have a good outing against a defense that should allow the Bears 17-21 points here and while Minny will pound the rock with AD and eat some clock, a lower scoring game with big points is a take, and Bears are capable here, and have a 1-2 punch at RB and the best QB and WR on the field. Line moved up from 5.5 to 6 – a key number.

Play 1 Unit on the Bears

BONUS – 1 Unit 2 Team 6 Point Teaser – Tease Kansas City DOWN to -1 and Tease Seattle Down to -9

NY Giants -1 to 1.5

Short and Sweet here.  The Giants have blown 5 fourth quarter leads this year and despite no running game against a weak rush defense here, and Manning being up and down, I like Odell Beckham against this secondary and Miami is simply the team that cannot get it done, especially at home this year and still working on new offensive schemes under new OC Zac Taylor in only his second week.  Coughlin finds a way to coach them to a win here and I expect Manning and company to have just a few more points than Miami.

Play 1 Unit on NY Giants 

New England -3 to 3.5

Generous gift by Oddsmakers as Houston was dismantled last week the entire game by an average Bills team and no doubt the Texans will not be able to run the ball here and we have Tom Brady and company, although short handed off a loss and getting a cheaper number here because of it.  Pats in full rebound mode and Houston coach O’Brien faces his mentor, and Bill will want a piece of his ass off a loss.  Pats still working on first round bye and home field, plenty to play for here gents at a cheap number.  QB Brady versus QB Hoyer?  No contest boys, as the Pats will be dialed in.  Betting square and taking the cash.

Play 1 Unit on New England

2 Team 6 Point Teaser – 1 Unit.  Tease Pittsburgh to +9 and Tease Kansas City to -4

Buffalo -1 

Real simple math here.  Buffalo ranks 4th in the running the ball in the NFL and Philly ranks 27th against the rush, and with a secondary for the Eagles that cannot cover good WR’s, Sammy Watkins will have a huge day, and QB Taylor a better QB than Bradford.  Eagles off an upset road win over the Pats with Special teams and defensive TD’s they wont get today.  Philly dysfunctional on many levels, and oh – RB McCoy returns back to Philly to make a statement. 

Play 1 Unit on the Bills

Carolina -8.5

I smell a 31-10 type ballgame here and that is IF Atlanta can get to 10 points.  Atlanta is in free fall, Matt Ice Ryan throwing picks like crazy, the defense is on the field all day long for the Dirty Birds and they are one of the worst teams over the last 6 weeks in the NFL, and on the other side we have arguably one of the best teams in the NFL at home off a wakeup call scare, who is playing for a first round bye and home filed in the post season here today with plenty of motivation.  The Falcons offense is deplorable right now, terrible play calling, against this defense at home?  Square bet laying a big number?  So Be it.  Forget about it, monster blowout.  The Panthers in December over the last 38 games in division play have covered 27 out of 38 spreads.

Play 2 Units on Carolina  - TOP PLAY