#709 - Cleveland +8.5 to 9

I think Cleveland makes a stand.  They can get physical and make this a game tonight, not sure if they can win, but I expect a high scoring game and James to have a huge night.  Nothing comes easy and a spread like this, in a Game 5 when a team faces elimination is too many.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

UNDER 228 Cavs / Warriors  *9 EST 

Enough written about these two over and over, we all know the drill, Golden State with scorers all over the place, Cavs a more than a few of their own, a rabid pace and 3 pointers flying everywhere.  Cleveland has NO chance to win if they allow a rabid pace in this one and Golden State does hit the boards and play defense, I think this will be slower paced.  This line has shot way up from previous game. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under

#705 - Golden State -3  *9 EST Wednesday

If you have not been paying attention, the addition of Durant to an already loaded roster with revenge has the Warriors dominating everyone including King James. No team has an answer - None.  Cleveland has NO answer and that has been on displays and apparently have absolutely no defense as well, but that is not news.  Golden State may have the best Roster ever in the NBA right now, undefeated in the post season and Killing everyone.  They also recall having a 2-0 lead last year and losing to the Cavs in this series and they have stated from the top they are not letting off the throttle at any point in this series.  Cleveland at home makes no difference to me, and for a team who had their ass whipping in every phase of the game and getting pounded by double digits only  getting 3 is a trick line, because while the venue changes, it is what it is on the floor, Cleveland may not win a game here and to the surprise of no one.

Play 2 Units on Golden State 

#703/704  Over 220.5 Cavs / Warriors Game 2 Sunday  *8 EST

The Warriors laying 9 scares me a bit but the Cavs know if they go down 0-2 they have a 14% chance of winning the series based on the fact that is the percentage in NBA history of teams down 0-2 in the finals.  Cleveland shot terrible in game 1 (36% from the floor), turned it over 20 times and allowed 56 points in the paint, and the scary thing is the Warriors did not shoot that well and still managed 113 points.  Both teams pull out all the stops here, offense on display.  Golden State had 5 straight Overs until the last game which I had the under, however teams will be looser and shoot better in Game 2.  Warriors have scorers 5 deep on the floor and 3 more on the bench and Cleveland has no answer for Durant. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#701/702 - UNDER 223.5 to 224 Cavs / Warriors *9 EST 

Golden State plays a good brand of defense. Better than most realize.  Both teams well rested so the defense will play well.  9 out of the last 10 times these two met, none of those totals exceeded this total but one time.  Durant on James should contain him.  Both teams will be tight early on as well. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Celtics +10 to 10.5

I think Cleveland wins this game and no doubt the Celtics will have to run on pure adrenaline here, but at days end the fight the Celtics put up on their home floor as a #1 seed as they face elimination should be a good one.  Catching double digits on your home floor with no one expecting you to make a stand is good locker room material, and Cleveland at times can fall asleep at the wheel in the getaway car.  Boston has done a commendable job without Thomas in the lineup and can score in excess of 100 points without him, and bear in mind Stevens in the better coach of the two teams.  Custer's last stand so to speak, forget the stats and trends, Boston will try to gut this out and make a game of it and catching this many points at home with their season on the line is too good to pass up.  Last time I took Boston I got my ass handed to me, but I feel they are the best option tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Boston.  

#505 -506 - Over 217.5 Cavs / Celtics  *8:30 EST 

Let’s look at this scenario tonight.  The Celtics scored 111 without their floor general and leading scorer Thomas in the last game on the ROAD!  Cleveland has not played defense all season and just decided to outscore everyone as their benchmark.  The Cavs blew a huge lead in Game 3 and LeBron was a no show and they still managed 108 points with the best player in the NBA taking a nap.  Enough said.  Expect James and the Cavs to have a big night and for Boston to pull out all the stops.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

#725 /726 - OVER 217.5 to 218  Spurs / Warriors 

No time for writeup on Monday - Play 1 Unit - I expect plenty of scoring guys.

Play 1 Unit

# 503 / 504 - UNDER 215 Cleveland / Boston  *8:30 EST 

11 out of the last 16 games in this series has went Under, and despite the Cavs scoring 130 points the last game went under as well.  Floor General and scorer Thomas out for Boston, Cleveland should roll along along here and Boston;s only chance is to play as good as defense as they can because their scoring ability is hampered greatly with the guy who makes their offense work.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#723 - Golden State -6.5   *9 EST

Well I made the mistake on Friday of taking the Celtics who have shown everyone oin Game 1 there were outmanned, and itr cost me.  I will not make the same mistake twice.  Bottom line is without Parker at Point Guard and Leonard, who is the best player on the Spurs roaster, either doubtful or way less than 100%, the Spurs are playing this series with 1 arm tied behind their back.  Yeah coach Pop is a great coach, but when your talent level and bench cannot match up to an opponent, this late in the playoffs, you are toast.  Have no illusions, Golden State is watching the Cleveland / Boston series closely and they no doubt think Cleveland will sweep as do I, and they also want to get out of this series in 4 games and rest up, they will show up here.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

#502 - Celtics +5.5   830 EST

I was all over the Cavs for a Top Play in Game 1, but now that the Celtics, who roared back in Game in 1 to make it halfway respectable, have a do or die situation here as home court is something they need to protect here tonight to have ANY chance of playing this series out.  They are the #1 seed at home down 0-1.  While I am unsure as good as Cleveland is playing, they are due for a loss and Boston will play better after a short rest and wake up call after battling Washington so hard to get here, they flat out were not at their best in Game 1 and I think they bring it in game 2 here with Thomas playing better and a better team effort.  Stevens is a good coach, better than the Cavs coach and he should dial it in tonight.  I expect a tight game and will grab the home dog here and go against the public.  

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

#721- Cleveland -4   *8:30 EST

There is something to be said about time off versus a team who has ben playing and are in sync, but the comparison ends there.  Cleveland was a 23 point winner over Boston back in early April and the are rested, have the best player in the NBA and are hungry for the finals againsyt no doubt Golden State.  Boston spent a ton of energy against Washington to get here and I think LeBron and the boys cover this with ease out of the gate and I like their road record in the post season.

Play 2 Units on Cleveland

Over 209.5 Washington  / Boston

Both teams will pull out all the stops after a rough game in game 6 shooting-wise.  Washington was 5 for 24 and Boston was 11 for 35 from 3 point range.  Both teams have backcourts than can and will do better.  This line was as high as 219 in this series and also this is a 6 point adjustments after the low scoring game 6.  Side Play too close to call, but like a shootout here with the Conference Finals on the line.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

#502 - Golden State -10  *3:30 EST

Well Las Vegas oddsmakers BEGGING YOU to take these points.  A ton of points for a conference final.  There is a reason. Public and many sharps on Spurs, not me.   Leonard not 100% and the Warriors Green will neutralize him.  Warriors have shooters all over the floor, at home and well rested.  The Spurs impressive blowout win over Houston where Harden never got off the bus and looked like dog crap makes you foam at the mouth to take this number, but I am not buying it.  Everyone has known all season long it was simply an exhibition season until Cleveland meets Golden State which no doubt will happen, and I am willing to lay it as Golden State makes a statement here against a tired and wounded Spurs team without any star power at point guard with Parker out, and it shows against this team.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

#711 /712 - OVER 216 Boston / Washington  *8 EST

Have no doubts as the game was 224 and Washington played like dog crap in an embarrassing loss.  4-1 on the overs the last 5, this will be a shootout - Short and Sweet today.  Both teams should be well over 100+ here.  The Wiz will pull out all the stops here.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

Washington +4.5

Home court becomes less of a factor this deep into any series, and I think this is a down to the wire game.  The team that wins game 5 in a toed series like this is an 80% of the time winner of the entire series so a ton on the line.  John Wall for Washington has stunk it up the last 2 games.  15 out of 44 shots and the Wizards won by a combined point total in those 2 games of 46 points?  WOW.  Also the Wizards have figured out how to shut down Thomas, last game just 3 total shots in the second half.

Play 1 Unit on Washington. 

UNDER 214.5 to 215 - Houston / San Antonio

Look with Parker out the Spurs are having issues with guard scoring and this is a HUGE game for the series and a turning point for one of these teams nightlight and I expect a disciplined game out of the Spurs and for them to play fundamental defense that they tend to do at home.  Doubt Houston makes 19 three pointers here tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#515 - Spurs ++5.5

No time for writeup today - too many points for the Rockets - Spurs flat out bettereven without Parker.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio

OVER 208 - Jazz / Warriors 

Play 1 Unit on the over gents - Short on time today but I expect both teams to eclipe 100+ tonight and Golden State is simply unstoppable.  Jazz should shoot well at home.

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

Cavs -2 (Open line on Thursday it will go up)  Good to -4 in my opinion)

Look Cleveland blew out the Raptors by double digits on the road last year in the playoffs, have waxed them twice and nothing changes in my mind.  LeBron a 1 man wrecking crew and the offense of the Cavs is on fire.  They are 10 points better than Toronto anywhere on the road, this line is DIRT FREAKING CHEAP at a bucket or 3 pointer- despite Lue not being the best coach in this series, Cleveland simply has their number and with the better team by numerous points, laying a small number with the best player in the NBA in the post season is always a take.  I am drinking the ikool aid here without hesitation. Cavs on a roll. 

Play 3 Units on the Cavs 

#507 - Utah Jazz +12.5  *10:30 EST

Look no doubt the Warriors are the better team, but not by a landslide.  Utah is sneaky good, can score and have played Defense well, and held the Warriors, off a brutal 7 games series on tired legs to 10 points below their 5 game average on offense in the last game.  The number is 1 point lower at the open here than the last game which Utah barely covered.  Golden State wins, but it will not come easy and this is a shit load of points in the second round of the post season.  Utah 6-0 ATS their last 6 roadies. 

Play 1 Unit on Utah

#733 - Houston +5.5  *9:35 EST 

If you are going zig zag theory on this game I think you are wring.  San Antonio is old and slow no matter how well coached,  and got their ass kicked BADLY as a favorite in the last game at home, and the team that hammered them, with arguably the NBA’s MVP. only having 20 points in the process!  Houston has covered and won SU their last 6 playoff games at San Antonio, no other team can make that claim, and while I see the Spurs making a supreme effort here no doubt, laying 5.5 to 6 points against a team that shit hammered you by 27 2 days ago is too many, as Houston is for real gents, and can score with anyone in the NBA.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#503 / 504 - UNDER 207  Warriors / Jazz  *10:30 est

The defense of the Jazz is key in this, and the fact they will be without Favors tonight and perhaps if he does play it will not be at 100% by  any means.  The last 4 in this series has went Under the number, and 13 out of the last 1 in Golden State in this series has went under.  Golden State off 8 days of rest and the Jazz off a brutal  game series.   Look for Utah to slow it down a bit and put their defense to work.  Golden State loaded I know but I do not see Utah breaking a 100 here tonight and GS can also play some defense as well, as they can be sneaky good on D. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#724 - Cleveland -6.5  *7:05 EST

Shit or get of the pot for the well rested Cavs.  They dominated Toronto last year laying huge numbers in the playoff series and covering them, and I think at home the Cavs will make a statement out of the gate, as they were winning by the skin of their teeth against Indiana.  Toronto's front-court will be troublesome for the Cavs no doubt but I do see in Game 1 a supreme effort from the Cavs.  Lets of stats point towards the Raptors, Cleveland was barely winning games and this number should be lower to the naked eye, but oddsmakers are begging you to take the Raptors here, I am going contrarian...too easy to take Toronto here and think it is an easy money deal.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

Washington +4.5   *1:05 EST 

Chicago lost their mojo with their best guard out, No such luck with John Wall around and the Wizards are my pick to challenge in the title game for the Eastern Conference all along.  Boston got a break against Chicago, I like the Wizards chances here of a SU Win with a hot backcourt.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#509 / 510 - UNDER 204 Bulls / Celtics  *8 EST

Chicago HAS to play the good defense they are known for tonight or they lose.  Boston has not been shooting all that well either.  This is a HUGE game and I expect both to be tight tonight and play it close to the vest.  The Bulls offense is also hampered without Rondo.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

#505/506-  UNDER 19.5 Griz / Spurs  930 EST 

The last game they ended on 219.  Memphis is not playing the defense they are known for and will pull out all the stops on offense to avoid elimination tonight.  They Spurs will gun it all night and try to seal the series.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#712 - Boston -7.5   *8:30 EST 

Chicago Done, Rondo done, Boston has not won a game at home in this series and just blew the doors off the dejected Bulls in both games.  Bulls done, they will throw it in early, expect Boston to ROLL.  Also Hoiberg cannot coach in the NBA if you haven’t noticed!

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Bucks +6

Too many here as the Bucks have been a thorn in the side of the Raptors and the Raptors hit and miss offense is not reliable enough to lay big points, and trust me 6 or more is big points in the NBA especially post season.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

#509 / 510 - Cavs / Pacers OVER 212.5   *1 EST 

I took the Over int he last game and while this may seem like a slow the pace and try and hang to save out life game for the Pacers - Cleveland plays no defense and again will just try and outscore you, especially late.  All games have went over and oddsmakers are slow to adjust this line raising it just 2 points from the last total and these 2 are flying over the total. 5-1 on the Over the last 6 times and expect Cleveland to open it up and try and close this out today.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY -  Boston -2.5 *6:30 EST (Rondo out is a huge deal for the Bulls - Like Celtics to even it up in a lower scoring slugfest) 

#505 - Spurs -3.5  *8 EST

Off a loss I LOVE the Spurs to bounce back here HUGE.  They dropped their guard in Game 3 after 2 dominating performances and there are few teams as good on the road as San Antonio.  I expect them to open up the scoring here and DOMINATE this game.  I have seen this time and time again over the years, a clear cut favorite and higher seed who can name the score play a lazy game.  San Antonio out-stats Memphis in almost every category and surely will be coached up by Coach Pop in this one, no brainer blowout in my opinion as the Spurs reassert themselves and they want to get out of this series ASAP and rest up for round 2, no more going through the motions.  Parker was scoreless in Game 3, expect a big day from him as well. 

Play 2 Units on San Antonio - TOP PLAY 

#715 - Boston -1.5 to 2  *7 EST 

Statement Game folks.  #1 seed and down 0-2 and the Bulls without Rondo.  Boston has had time to reflect, gather their poise, Thomas time to get over grieving his sister and this game is do or die with the best team in the East  (according to records anyway) to step up and make a statement. Boston has the players and coaching here to get over Chicago on the road.  You stat look at this, trend look at this all you want and it favors Chicago, but I have seen this scenario (well not a #1 seed down 0-2 to #8 but you get my drift), many times over my 25 years of capping games, and sometimes you flat out go with your gut and Boston will leave nothing to chance in this game, and put it all on the floor tonight bar none.  Worth the stretch with just a 3 pointer to cover despite the Bulls defense which has been outstanding.  Look for Boston to hit the boards hard and reduce turnovers. 

Play 1 unit on Boston

Over 210-.5 Cavs / Pacers

Indiana will pull out all the stops at home here and Cleveland plays no defense so they will counter punch on offense instead.  Both games have went over the total in this series and oddsmakers after a 228 point output in game 2 have adjusted the total a half point from the last game which was 210.  These two are averaging 225 on offense their last 5 combined and allowed 220.

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

BONUS PLAY:  Spurs in late game -3.5  HALF UNIT  

#702 - Washington -5  *7 EST

Wiz already cleaned their clocks once on the road and Atlanta a horrific road team especially in the post season.  Washington better, backcourt better, home court strong.  I know dogs dominated yesterday and you have the much publicized zig zag approach to playoff betting however Washington should roll here big.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Jazz +9

Clippers all over the place and too inconsistent, and the Jazz did a hell of a job in the second half game 1 on defense, even without their big guy in the lineup, and LA simply is not 9 points better than the Jazz gents. Tight game all the way, value in the number.

Play 1 Unit on Utah  

#518 - Cavs -8   *7 EST

Short and Sweet - Took Indiana on Saturday and cashed them but this is the game Cleveland opens up a can of whoop ass.  They blew a 10 point 4th quarter lead and played shoddy down the stretch.  Think this is the game they put it all together.  Indiana gave them their best shot and still failed, that will deflate them in game 2, seen it a million times in the post season.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

#513 - Chicago +6 to 6.5  *6:30 EST 

Boston while being well coached and the #1 seed in the east still lacks good defense and that brings big points into play.  As you saw Saturday outside of the Spurs kicking ass, was the 3 other dogs covering and one winning outright.  These 2 Split the regular season 2-2 but Da Bulls still remember a 20 point whipping they took last month and with their offense scoring over 100 ppg and their defense playing lights out late in the season I will grab the points here.

Play 1 Unit on the Bulls 

#501- Indiana +8.5 to 9   *3 EST 

Cleveland limped in here losing 4 straight, and are a mess in my opinion.  Indiana won their last 5 games, covered their last 6 in a row and have no pressure on them while the world awaits Cleveland to snap out of it and magically appear as unbeatable with King James leading the charge.  They have no defense, which brings big points into play and I will gladly take a hungry Pacer team to make a good showing here against a team who gave up 100 ppg in their last 5 games they were trying to win. 

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

ON SALE A DIRT CHEAP NBA PLAYOFF PACKAGE - Check it out.... 

Brooklyn +11

The Celtics have been playing piss poor and Thomas is the only one producing on a consistent basis.  the Nets 11-11 the last 22 SU and playing with purpose and fire and won't lay down.  All the pressure on Boston as they try to get the #1 seed, things do not come easy this time of the year.

Play 1 Unit on Brooklyn 

#503 - Cleveland -2   *3:35 EST 

The Hawks embarrassed the Cavs in their last game this is payback and possible for the #1 seed in the East as Cleveland in a dogfight with Boston for the top spot.  Expect all starters from the Cavs here and a supreme effort at a low number I find value with the Best team in the east despite their recent woes.

Play 2 Units on Cleveland 

#703 - Boston -1.5 to 2  *6:00 EST

Celtics playing for #1 seed against a team they are 7-1 ATS the last 8.  4-0 SU  / ATS the last 4.  With Cleveland losing Friday this is a huge game and no one on Boston, even though they have been so/so the past week, is overlooking this game as Boston is playing for everything and the Hornets playing for nothing.  The Celtics recent form has this number low and ripe for the taking in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on Boston. 

#709 - Bulls -3.5   *8:05 EST Tip 

The Bulls are hot and the Knicks could care less.  Have you see the Knicks the play?  They have thrown it in and do not play hard for their coach and total mess.  That time of the season when teams in the playoffs hunt bring it and others do not.  That is the case here.

Play 1 Unit on Da Bulls

Gonzaga +1.5 to 2  *9:20 EST 

You know the ACC is 3-14 ATS in the post season?  Over rated again, the mighty ACC.  Mark Few is a Better coach than ol Roy Boy too – BIG TIME.  The Zags big guys are going to pose a huge problem for Meeks and the all the paint action for NC.  Carolina also loves to foul, and the Zags can knock down FT’s.  That is why Oregon almost beat NC and should have in all honesty, and I was on NC for a 2 unit play.  Lesson learned.  Roy Williams is an average coach at best with talent galore. He reminds me of Mack Brown when he coached at Texas.  Loaded but fail in the limelight 99% of the time.  Zags also play better defense by a long shot and are the dog.  Mighty NC is a Massive public favorite in every game and yet oddsmakers have this at a near pick’em.  WHY?  Because they know this is a coin flip and the Zags could win, and that is why the Zags are only -107 on the moneyline and not getting more juice their way.  Is it impossible for NC to lose in the title game 2 years in a row?  Everyone says no.  Ask the Buffalo Bills if you can get to the big game more than once and still lose, it is more than possible.  Williams Goos is as good as any guard NC has and can score at will and with the defense that NC plays he will get open looks.  I am going contrarian here and bucking the public and more than one sharp and taking the Zags to win it.

Play 1 Unit on Gonzaga

March Madness clients and CBB Clients – Had some great winning streaks long term in CBB this year and one horrific February run as well, not my best year.  March Madness did not turn a profit for the first time in 5 years and I apologize for that.  I could make up a 100 excuses but won’t. I am paid to win, and this time around I failed with great frustration. It was a crazy tourney with huge surprises and 1 or 2 point bad beats all over the place, and I was on the wrong side.  I will strive to be better next season and know after 25 years I will be better, long term success tells me so.   Appreciate your biz this season. On with NBA and MLB gents.    

#517 - Bulls +6.5  *6:05 EST Tip

Both teams surging, Pelican 8-3 SU run and the Bulls won 4 out of 5 and beat the Cavs in their last game.  I like this game to be a good game tonight and the Bulls to hang within the large number here.  Chicago has won the last 5 in this series SU and won by 8 at home earlier this season.  Chicago also has the better defensive team here and Butler has been been solid for them and a huge playmaker down the stretch. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS their last 8 trips here and are 4-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record their last 4 times.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago 

#814 - North Carolina -5   *8:40 EST 

Hate to lay over 3 in any game in the final 4 ever, however NC lost the title on the last shot of the game to Nova last year, fought and clawed to get back here, and frankly the game is going to be won in the paint.  The PAC 12 is not the ACC by any stretch and both Zona and UCLA got their ass handed to them, and Oregon beating a Kansas team who RARELY performs past the sweet 16 under Bill Self is not that impressive.  This is when Oregon’s second best rebounder being out hurts them.  NC should dominate the boards, which equates to easy buckets, which in turn also equates to owning the boards and controlling the game.  N. Carolina has experience big time and Oregon’s run, although well coached by Dana Altman, ends here.  Carolina has too many horses, and the Ducks depending on the 3 point shot to win big games rarely work out in big ones.

Play 2 Units on North Carolina 

#709 - Houston Pk to -1   ** *10:35 EST

Do not let this line fool you - good value here with the better team and the NBA's MVP playing well in the Rockets Harden.  This line is low due to Houston's loss to Golden State and the fact the Blazers, who I won with on Monday, are red hot.  Have no illusions, Houston is a beast on the road, 6-1 ATS their last 7 road games and the road team in this series is 11-5 ATS!  Nice trends, but trends do not win games, teams do, and Portland gets a dose of reality tonight in what should be an absolute shootout.  You are getting the better team here at less than a 2 point shot with the best player in the league arguably, and they are off a loss.

Play 1 Unit on Houston   

#711 - Georgia Tech +3.5  *8 EST

When you have a game that is even you have to go with fundamentals.  GT has the ACC Coach of the year at the helm, they have the better defense and the best player on the floor in Guard Josh Okogie who has scored 21 ppg and 8 rebounds a game in the NIT Tourney.  TCU last 2 games were Richmond and Central Florida and I honestly think GT is the better team with intangibles to boot.  Both teams battle tested out of their conferences, but at days end going with the team that has held every opponent in this tourney to under 40% in FG's  from the floor.  Defense wins championships. 

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech 

#774 - Portland -1.5  10 EST 

Yes a public play but the Blazers are 11-3 SU in March and kicking ass right now and they just tied the Nuggets for the 8th playoff spot, and at home the Blazers are approaching this as a playoff game.  In the NBA when you get a team in a spot where you KNOW they are going to show up, they are always worth a take, especially at home and especially laying a low number.

Play 1 Unit on Portland  

#778 - Georgia Tech -2  *7 EST 

David versus Goliath in this one as Cal St Bakersfield has managed through 3 decent wins to get to the semi’s tonight, hitting a huge amount of 3 point shots and playing some good defense.  GT used to the big stage and GT has beaten numerous NCAA Tourney teams this season.  I like the overall team play and coaching for the yellow jackets in this one and the defense they have played in beating Ol Miss and Indiana to name 2 teams they beat in this tourney has been impressive.  Battle tested out of the ACC in a game game and big stage like this is an advantage for Georgia Tech

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech

Kentucky +2.5

Flat out comes down to better guard play and not sure North Carolina who coasted the last game but had their hands full with Arkansas of all people, can handle Kentucky hitting on all cylinders off a beat down of a great UCLA team.  Also the defense of Kentucky is sneaky good and handled the guard play of UCLA with ease.  This should be a shootout and Kentucky will run and gun all night as that is when they are at their best.  3 SEC teams in the Elite 8 so tired of the mighty ACC getting headlines as the only conference where you are battle tested.  Gotta take the points here with the team with a better backcourt and a head coach who has been here before as well.  

Play 1 Unit on Kentucky

BONUS PLAY:  Half unit on the OVER 159   

#512 -  Kansas -7   *8:45 EST 

I have been a big fan of Dana Altman since I used to interview him at his days in Creighton working for a local ESPN station in Lincoln NE.  The guy can coach, his players play hard and he will give you a game anytime, anywhere. They lost to Arizona who I thought was overrated all year in the PAC 12 tourney and lost one of their best players in the process.  On the other side Bill Self has fallen in the Elite 8,  4 out of 6 times he has been here, but you could not draw it up any better for KU tonight.  Playing at the Sprint Center in Kansas City is HUGE for Kansas, home away from home, and I live in KC and actually will be at this game but have NO bias.  Mason and Graham in the backcourt should flourish and are flat out studs.  Bill Self did his best coaching job of the season on Purdue, taking away their bigs and letting his dogs loose and he has the better team here in my opinion.  Oregon barely won their last 2 games, huge come from behind game against Rhode Island and a miracle win against Michigan.  Their shortcomings show up here and KU pulls away late with some hot guards taking over basically on a home floor.  KU by 10-12.  

Play 1 unit on Kansas  

#871 - Wisconsin +1.5 to 2   *9:55 EST

Experience, fundamentals, senior laden team in Wiskey and they have answered the bell as an underdog before and in the last game as well.  At days end this team has been to 3 of these as a team and that counts.  Florida is up and down and Wisconsin battle tested weekly in the Big 10 and I like their low post game and ability to hit threes outside.  The Badgers hang around and then put it away, that is their pattern of winning games late.

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin  

#875 - UCLA -1  *9:30 est

Not sold on Kentucky at all, not the same dominant team and UCLA simply is loaded with talent across the board.  Tough call many think, but I think UCLA wins this by 8+ points.

Play 1 Unit on UCLA

#874 - Baylor -3.5  *7:25 est

Too long for South Carolina and Baylor is not shy about running and gunning and do not hold back, which was Dukes meltdown.  South Carolina a one hit wonder in my opinion and cannot trade punches here.

Play 1 Unit on Baylor

#815 - West Virginia +3.5  *7:35 EST 

Bob Huggins has a chance to win a huge game, in a big spotlight, which is something he rarely does however from I have seen from the Zags, I am just not impressed and they are not battle tested like the mountain boys are out of the Big 12.  West Virginia leads the nation in turnovers, have a relentless approach to defense and have a veteran team that is well coached, and they can knock down shots under pressure.  Northwestern dominated the last 10 minutes of their game against the Zags, NORTHWESTERN!   Enough said.  Zags might only have 1 loss, but they have not played anyone.

Play 1 Unit on West Virginia

BONUS PLAY – Half Unit on Purdue +5.  

#767 - Illinois +3.5  *7 EST 

Like Illinois here, the Big 10 surprised everyone in the Big Dance and Illinois despite hiring a new coach from Okie State is playing hard for the interim coach here and UCF, whom I have won money on all year, does not have the offense to contend here and this is a big step up in class, even at home.  Illinois has a much higher RPI and I like them here as a dog.  Beat a high seeded Colorado team and knocked off Mo Valley’s Illinois State who is no slouch and a #1 seed in NIT to get here.

Play 1 Unit on Illinois

#668 - Ole Miss -5.5   *9EST 

Beat Syracuse in impressive fashion on the road did the Rebels and they have not lost at home since Jan. 28th when Baylor came calling and they lost by 3 to a team in the Sweet 16.  GT is a team I won with against Indiana but they are a fade team on the road, and as a matter of fact have not won on the road since Jan.15th.  Ol Miss is tough to get through and have looked good in this tourney.  Ol Miss scoring 81 ppg their last 5, almost 17 ppg more than GT in the same timeframe.  GT on the road for the first time off 2 home wins, time to lose.

Play 1 Unit on Ol Miss 

#720 - Duke -7.5   *8:40 EST 

Look South Carolina relays on defense and are not a deep team out of the SEC conference which has basically 3 good teams in it.  Duke is loaded on offense and are an offensive juggernaut that will give the Gamecocks issues with tempo and depth.  Coach K (best coach in NCAA Hoops bar none - maybe in history) has his team hitting on all cylinders and clearly are my favorite to get to the Final 4 and they can win this whole thing.  Battle tested out of the ACC, deep, well coached, and can stretch out a defense and South Carolina despite a good defense, cannot trade punches on the scoreboard here.

Play 2 Units on Duke.

#733 - Oakland +4 to 4.5  *7:30 EST

Love high flying Oakland here who is road warrior at 11-2 SU as roadies and they are an excellent bet as a dog, cashing 20 out of 25 times as an underdog.  They have scorers all over the place and also play defense.  A well balanced team all around and Richmond does not perform well against good teams, which is why they are in this tourney - and frankly the wrong team is favored. Also the the battle of boards is an advantage for Oakland - Good road teams fare well in this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland 

North Carolina -11

NC names the score here.  3 of Vegas's biggest bettors laid big money on this game as their game of the day.  They placed no other bets.  

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina 

NCAA Tourney Game of the Year

#527 - Iowa State +1 to Pick   *9:40 EST March 18th.  

Gents I cashed Iowa State as my Tourney Game of the year about 9 days ago and I will cash them out here as well.  Purdue and the Big 10 overall is way over rated and Iowa State has Morris who is one of the best 3 guards in the entire country and they have 2 NBA players on their roster and are well coached.  They hit 3's and free throws and are big underneath.  Purdue's style here is not going to match up well against ISU who I am very high on to reach the Final 4.   Iowa can score at will, and they have been consistent in knocking down 3's and can go on runs and score in bunches.

Play 3 Units on Iowa State - GO CYCLONES!  

#532 - Arizona  -5  *7:45 EST

Zona one of the best teams in this Tourney and St Mary's cannot shoot over them all night.  Sucker line yes, but willing to lay it with who I picked to win this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Zona 

#530 - Gonzaga -11  **5:15 EST  

Northwestern meets their match here.  Zags a potential Final 4 team.

Play 1 Unit on Gonzaga

#519 -  Wisconsin +5.5 to 6  *2:40 EST

No writeups today - Wisconsin is a veteran team - knows how to win and they are hot hitting 3's.  GREAT Guard Play

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin

#832 - Dayton +6 *7:10 EST 

Shockers have 15 straight wins, blew everyone out in the Mo Valley Tourney and a team who can score and play defense and are extremely well coached, and this coach knows how to get it done in March.  A 10 seed against a 6 seed laying 6 points?  What does that tell you, as Vegas oddsmakers know who the better team is and seeding means nothing in terms of a number of worth. WSU won the Mo Valley regular and post season titles, are a 30 win team against Dayton but the Flyers are no slouch and have seniors all over the place and great guard play.  Outside of WSU and Illinois State the Mo Valley was deplorable this season and the Flyers won the A-10 regular season crown and that conference has 3 teams in the Big Dance and with Cooke, Pollard and Smith, will provide a stiff test for the Shockers, I will take the points in this one as both teams can score.

Play 1 Unit on Dayton

#836 - SMU - 6 *3:10 EST 

Look USC has beaten 1 team with a winning record since Jan. 28th.  That was the play in game to get this spot against mighty and damn good, high flying and high scoring SMU who buried Cincy in their their tourney championship game and have scorers all over the place.  I expect SMU to make a decent run in this tourney and to bury USC who simply cannot trade punches on the scoreboard against a good team, that has been proven all year in the PAC 12 by them.

Play 2 Units on SMU - TOP PLAY

#824 - Arkansas -1  *1:30 EST 

This is a fundamental handicapping play - Seton Hall cannot close out games and they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the Big Dance.  Watch any games on TV?    Are you sweating out the last 40 seconds of a game because it boils down to free throws?  Well then Arkansas who is well coached and a 9 loss team who lost in the SEC Championship to a stellar Kentucky team is the only way to look here.

Play 1 Unit on Arkansas

#827 - Oklahoma State +2.5   *12:15 EST 

Not sold on the Hype and attention Michigan is getting here.  A middle of the pack team in the Big 10 who got hot after a plane crash and won a tourney.  That said Okie St can kill you in many ways, are extremely well coached and battle tested out of the Big 12.  Honestly the Cowboys are the better team here catching points, I will gladly take them.  Big 10 way over rated.

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma State

#715 - Virginia Tech +5.5  *9:40 EST

Trying to figure out the love affair with Wisconsin.  Every time I watch them play, they fail to impress.  They can’t shoot free throws, their offense is below average, their guards pass up shots and frankly despite their experience, their seniors at the guard play do not defend the perimeter.  VT shoots lights out from 3 point land, nail free throws and they beat similar teams in the ACC like Virginia and Miami.  An outright win here would not shock me, bad matchup for the Badgers who frankly as much as the media is in love with them, managed just a 8 seed. All you need to know.

Play 1 Unit on VT

#733 - Middle Tennessee State (PK) to -1  *4 EST

Minnesota is a good team, but overall bear in mind the Big 10 is not a good BB conference in my opinion and every team in this tourney perhaps outside of Purdue is overrated.  How Minny got a 5 seed is perplexing.  MTSU has the same exact group of players that beat Michigan State last year in this tourney, another overrated Big 10 team from last year (and this year).  No doubt this is a popular pick on brackets for an upset and I will gladly take the number here in another live dog scenario.  Williams and Upshaw for MTSU are very good players, and they have some solid out of conference wins on their schedule as well including Vandy.  Springs being out for Minny a big hit and MTSU dictates pace this whole game.  The ol 5 vs 12 game and at a pickem?   A 5 seed in a pick em ballgame to being favored?

Play 1 Unit on Middle Tennessee State

#735 - Winthrop +11   *1:30 EST

Any teams that score like Winthrop scores getting double digits is worth a look, and they are worth a strong look here.   Butler who allows 68 ppg playing a team who scores 79 ppg, and a better than average team here for the Eagles and have no doubt Butler will be very concerned about 5 foot 7 inch guard Johnson, Conference MVP in the Big South the last 2 years and the kid can drain 3’s.  No doubt a spark plug of a player and dangerous.  Cannot lay double digits with a team who managed 57 points against Xavier and lost their last 2 including to Seton Hall.  Too many points.  Butler is better but this should be closer than this.

Play 1 Unit on Winthrop

#718 - Notre Dame -6.5  *12:15 EST 

Cannot ignore the strength of Conference here and ND managed a Championship appearance in the ACC Tourney boys.  Ivy League Cinderella will not happen and ND should dominate this game.  The Irish gave Duke all they wanted and frankly this line should be double digits.

Play 1 Unit on Notre Dame.  

#623 - USC -2.5  *9:10 Est 

Revenge time.  USC blew a big lead and lost by 1 to Providence last year in the tourney.   USC’s coach is 14-3 ATS in post season play (used to be at Florida Gulf Coast) and USC despite being ridiculed by the media as undeserving, they will use that as motivation tonight and their offense which is unique to say the least, will give the Friars issues.  Providence is a middle of the pack team in the Big East, and USC determined here and well coached.  I will lay the short number.

Play 1 Unit on USC 

UNC Greensborough +12.5

Syracuse disappointed to be here no doubt, spring break for the students so the dome will not be a fever pitch as usual, and Syracuse’s coach just slammed Greensborough as a bad place to have a tourney.  While UNCG has nothing to do with the ACC, it provides motivation and bear in mind this is a team who 25-9 on the year, 8-4 on the road and puts up 75 ppg.  Lower seeds in this tourney are motivated big time to knock off Goliath, and I feel UNCG hangs close here.   Cannot ignore the fact Syracuse is complacent at times with lesser teams and this may be a good one.  UNCG ended the season on a 9-1 run.

Play 1 Unit on UNC Greensborough

#640 - UCF -2.5  *7 EST 

Let’s get this straight, home teams dominate the NIT in the first couple of rounds guys.  Also, lets get this out there, outside of Oregon, UCLA and Arizona, the rest of the AC 12 is average to below average at best.  Johnny Dawkins, who has vast experience in post season action as a coach and a player leads the Knights who play great defense and are extremely balanced, and Colorado plays no defense, and on the road, that is doom in the post season, just ask Indiana about last night, or Wake Forest.

Play 1 Unit on Central Florida

Thursday Round 1 Plays upcoming later tonight -DO NOT discount my prowess in March Madness guys – in EACH of the last 3 years a Top 8 ranked March Madness Capper and #1 in 2015 by a respected monitor.  Package is $200 - INVEST and WIN! 

#543 - Kansas St -1.5  *9:10 EST 

K State has a Top 50 offense / Top 50 Defense and a balanced attack and a balanced team.  Not sold on Weber as a head coach of high caliber however he coached a hell of a Big 12 Tourney and could have easily had a shot in the Championship game after losing to a very good Bub Huggins coached WV team by a single point.  Wake has a great offense but the worst defense in the ACC and ranked 299th overall and that allows teams like K State who is balanced on both sides to seal a win.  ACC a great conference no doubt, but the Big 12 is stacked as well…this will be a good game, give it to the more complete team in this matchup at this line.  Wake just 1-11 ATS their last 12 NCAA Tourney Games…WOW. 

Play 1 Unit on Kansas State

Georgia Tech +3

Wrong team favored.  GT has a vastly better resume, knew they were playing in the NIT and will bring their A Game.  Indiana a train wreck on the road (allow 80 ppg) which is why they are in the NIT and they covered just 4 out of their last 16 games.  North Carolina, Florida State and Notre Dame went down on this floor. 

Play 1 Unit on GT   

#507 - Milwaukee +4  *7:05 EST 

Yeah line stinks but drinking the Kool aid here guys.  Memphis has done lineup changes and played like absolute dog crap and now they turn it around against a red hot Bucks team?  Yep, that’s the NBA but I do like the Bucks to continue to climb up the Playoff chart and continue their good play here.  Bucks defense playing outstanding against a struggling offense and team with chemistry issues.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

#890 - Wisconsin - 1.5   *3 EST 

Michigan is riding on pure adrenaline here and looking for a fairy tale ending starting with a plane crash and playing a game in practice uniforms and beating some good teams including a shocker in my mind over Minnesota yesterday as they blew a lead and then hung on against a better team.  It catches up with them today as Wisconsin and Purdue have been the best 2 teams in this conference all year, and the ease in which the Badgers dispatched a decent NW team yesterday (I took Whiskey) was impressive and they are hitting on all cylinders on offense right now which is key for them, and it should carry over today.  Wisconsin a veteran team who has been on the big stage before and that experience will be the difference down the stretch.

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin

BONUS PLAY - SMU -2   - Too much offense for Cincy.  * 3:15 EST - Half Unit 

#883 - Rhode Island (pk to -1)  *12:30 EST 

Short and Sweet - I rode these guys yesterday to a blowout win, and while VCU and RI split the regular season series, it is Rhode Islands defense which will be a huge key in this game.  They also are red hot winning 8 in a row and coached well.  Two weeks ago rI won by 10 when they played and laid 4 points, now a pickem.  

Play 1 Unit on Rhode Island

Duke -3

Duke has beaten me 2 days in a row as I faded them against heavyweights Louisville and North Carolina.  Dukes tandem of Tatum, Allen and Kenard is just frightening because while Duke has been banged up all year, they are 100% healthy now and led by the best coach in college basketball.  Notre Dame has a solid team no doubt but had to hang on against Florida St after blowing a big lead,  I like the fact Duke beat 2 of the better teams in the country to get here and on the door step of a championship with Coach K, I do not see them falling short now.  I learned my lesson - Duke red hot. 

Play 1 Unit on Duke

Iowa State +3

Bottom line is Iowa State is better.  I rode them for a GOY last night and they won wire to wire in a blowout.  They will have a heavy crowd in this one as they always do in Kansas City and Iowa States offense and size is going to be a big advantage here.  West Virginia never wins the big one, and while Huggy Bear is a good coach, Iowa State has 2 NBA Players on their roster, they are deep and should win this game.  Live Dog big time here.  ISU starts hitting 3's and it will be an easy win.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State 

Vandy -3

No time for write-ups - Rode Vandy last 2 days and will ride them again.  Good team, lots of shooters and better than Arky in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on Vandy

Wisconsin - 5

No write-up short on time.  Veteran team, well coached., and with Purdue out this is their tourney to win, best team left standing.  If they hit 3's they should be able to win with ease here.  NW playing on adrenaline but a good punch in the mouth here and they will fade late.

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin 

Rhode Island -4

No write-ups, short on time.  Good team here, best on defense in A-10 and although Davidson has Gibbs, they do not have much else.

Play 1 Unit on Rhode Island

#564 - Creighton -3 to 4   *9 EST

Xavier needed to win Thursday to keep Big Dance Hopes alive and put everything into that game.  Creighton leads the conference in 3 pointers and have a deep and tall team.  The Blue Jays split with these guys in regular season but Xavier 5-12 ATS their last 17 in Big East Action and quite frankly have been so inconsistent as of late I cannot trust them on the big stage, and McDermott is a hell of a coach.  Creighton who I had last night, played like dog shit for 30 minutes and still won.  Better team, more offense.

Play 1 Unit on Creighton 

#570 - North Carolina -4   *7 EST

Faded Duke yesterday and it was my lone loss, but NC flat out better and although Coach K outcoached Ricky Pitino yesterday, he will not out coach Roy Williams. NC too deep and too talented on offense to give way to a tired Duke team who lives and dies by getting to the charity stripe and favorable calls.  Louisville pissed down their leg yesterday.  Duke has been over rated all year guys, NC flat out better and dismantled a decent Miami team by 25 yesterday in a no sweat winner.

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina

#557 - Vandy +6.5  *7 EST

Vandy swept Florida this year, pounded Texas AM yesterday (my top play) and while Florida is a damn good team, they do not match up well against Vandy who have covered 16 out of the their l21 games.  Tight one all the way.

Play 1 Unit on Vandy

Iowa State -4 to 4.5

Well, TCU did a nice job of getting a high NIT seed with an upset over Kansas, who was without one of the best play makers and scorers, and KU blew a double digit lead.  I am fading TCU here big time against mighty Iowa State, long in the box, and shoot 3's like no ones business and simply will run the floor ragged with the Horned Frogs tonight in Kansas City, a game I will be at in person.  TCU lost 7 straight before beating a bad OU team and upsetting Kansas.  In over their head here.

Play 3 Units on Iowa State 

#536 - Central Florida -2 to 2.5  *2 EST

#1 in the nation on defense in NCAA Hoops – they simply deny shots.  Memphis is all over the place and inconsistent.  Memphis is 1-5 their last 6 and SMU destroyed them Saturday and racked up over 100 points.  UCF hot – I am rolling with them on a short number.

Play 1 Unit on UCF  

#733 - Creighton – 2   *9:30 EST 

The Blue Jays offense, and bear in mind they have scored 100 ppg on a neutral floor this year and the Friars just 56 ppg on neutral floors.  Creighton has all the tools to take this tourney into the championship games and their 82 ppg on offense should put them over the top in this one.  Providence beat Creighton recently in Omaha, fresh on the mind of the Blue Jays.  Better team, Better coach, more scoring power.

Play 1 Unit on Creighton

#772- Vanderbilt -3   *7 EST

Vandy handled this team twice this season and I expect a 3-Peat.  Texas AM cannot string together enough consistency to beat a good Vandy team.

TOP PLAY – 2 Units on Vandy

#764 - Louisiana Tech -4   *6:30 EST

UAB won by 1 point, LT rested and crushing it right now, their last 5 games scoring 89 and allowing 55.  They win with ease here.  Avenging a loss although the series was split this season.

Play 1 Unit on LA Tech   

#714 - Louisville -1.5  *2 EST

Duke playing badly, Louisville’s defense and rebounding too much for Duke, who I feel is very overrated.

Play 1 Unit on Louisville

Georgia -1 to 1.5

No time for write-up - Georgia flat out better, I like them to pull away late.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia  

#576 – Texas Tech -4.5  *9 EST

Texas has dropped 7 straight games and failed to cover the spread in any of them.  Tech is vastly better and can close a game.  Bear in mind Tech lost to Kansas by 1 point, TCU by 1 point,  and also lost to Iowa State and West Virginia I OT and also beat Baylor this year.  Texas 0-11 on the road. 

Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech 

#580 - Auburn – 6.5  *9 EST

I took Auburn over the weekend against Mizzou and will lay it again.  Mizzou the worst team in the SEC, cannot win away from home and they flat out stink and do not play hard for their coach who should get fired after this game when he arrives back in Columbia.  Mizzou is toast here again. 

1 Unit on Auburn 

#569 - Georgetown -1  *7 EST

This is a favorite pick of the day by a friend and Vegas oddsmaker, and numerous sharps have plunked down some decent money on the Hoyas and the line may move.  Season Split between these two, but St Johns defense is deplorable and have allowed 80 points per game in their last 5 games.  Hoyas off a beatdown against Nova, but overall the better team so we lay the short number with the sharps.

Play 1 Unit on Georgetown 

#561 - Penn State -2   *4:30 EST 

Look Nebraska off their worst home loss in school history, (3-12 SU last 15 Big 10 games) Tim Miles is no doubt on the hot seat and the Huskers (I am a grad) have thrown it in.  They cannot score, and Webster is their only option (and a good one) but he is off his first game in 30 games where he did not score double digits Sunday in an ass whipping by Michigan.  Penn State has dropped their last 5 games but are avenging a season loss to Nebraska and I just do not see the Husker offense able to put a game away, and if things go bad for NU, they throw it in.  Pathetic performance on Sunday and while I expect them to show up, they cannot hang here and willing to lay a short number against a team who have lost their last 4 Big 10 games by an average of 20 ppg. 

Play 1 Unit on Penn State   

#716 - Zaga -5   *9 EST 

The Zags are for real and no sharp players in Vegas backed away from this line.  I pounded St Mary last night because of their defense as of late and they did exactly what I thought against BYU, but BYU flat out sucks.  The Zags have beat them badly in both meetings this season, nothing will change.  Statement game for the Zags playing a rare ranked opponent.

Play 1 Unit on Gonzaga