Mets +115  *2:15 EST

Lets take the Mets in rebound here - I am taking Matz on the hill here who has been very impressive since joining the rotation, Under a 2.2 ERA in 5 starts.  Mets should be favored..  Card counter with Lynn on the hill with over a 6 ERA in his last 3.  

Play 1 Unit on the Mets

NOTE:  I will be joining Docs Sports moving forward as of today - Exclusively found there.  I will post picks there only as we merged our companies.  Come check me out and I appreciate all your biz on the sportscasting system.  My website this week will be taken down in its current form.  Any subscription clients can get their plays pro rated and apply any carry over time with another capper in the system by contacting [email protected] 

OVER 9.5 Cards / Mets  *4:10 EST 

Both teams are hot at the plate, the over trends in this game are unreal, and boith Wheeler and Wainwright have been lit up recently, especially Wheeler and these two score 11 runs last night in a 1 run

Reds / D Backs UNDER 9

Greinke on the hill who is lights out at home.  Should shut down the Reds offense.  D Backs with Zack on the hill are 8-2-1 on Unders with him starting the last 11.  Add to the fact the Reds offense is going to struggle here as they are 6-0 on Unders their last 6 games, and for the Reds Adleman is a solid right hander and I see a low scoring affair here.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

St. Louis -156 (laying the bump over -150 - worth the stretch)

The Cards have burned me all year but this is a total mis-macth on the mound tonight with Wacha at home, where he shines and in 10 home starts has managed a solid 2.91 ERA with 1 loss all season!  Miami’s Koehler is a total train wreck and his ERA approaching 8, and his last outing was a total disaster.  Home team, stud pitcher, reasonable number.

Play 1 Unit on St Louis 

Under 9 Phillies / Pirates  *7:05 EST 

Look both pitchers decent here with Cole and Lively and neither team, especially the last 5 games cannot hit right handers.  Love this set up.  The Phillies didn't even score a run yesterday. The Under is  16-5-1 in the Pirates last 22 games!  Enough said.

Play 2 Units on the Under 

Pittsburgh -145

No time for extended writeup on a holiday with travel, however the Pirates were shut out by one of the worst teams in MLB yesterday and I like them with Tallion to bounce back today.  4 EST first pitch.  Lay it.

Play 1 Unit on the Pirates 

Boston -115

Boston just swept the Blue Jays and have won their last 4 games in a row, while Texas has dropped 4 out of 5.  Porcello has been hit or miss but I like him here.  The total is 11 so both pitchers are going to give up runs, but the KEY is Boston's bullpen who is vastly better than the Rangers and that will be the difference late.

Play 1 Uni n Boston

Over 8 Padres and Dodgers  *440 EST

No time for a writeup today.  5 out of the last  have went over in this series, and the game yesterday missed the over by a half run because the Padres failed to score.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

#952 - Pittsburgh -121  *7:05 EST

Cheap line for the home team here despite the Giants coming off a 3 game sweep of the Rockies, I am fading Cueto on the road here tonight and a red hot Cole on the hill for the Pirates, with a 1.35 ERA and has only given up 11 hits in 20 innings in his last 3 starts, all wins.  Pirates the better team at home here and Cueto is prone to giving up homers out of nowhere and is totally undependable on the road.

Play 1 Unit on the Pirates 

#907 - Brewers   *7 EST 

The line stinks here and smells fishy, I am not buying it is a set up.  To avoid the sweep gents, and the Reds have taken the first 2 games and I like the Brew Crew here with Nelson on the hill for them, off his first loss in a month.  Better pitcher – better team, damn near better everything and Brewers 11-0 off game 1 and 2 losses in the third game.  WOW Bailey is a train wreck on the mound for the Reds.

Play 2 Units on Milwaukee 

Pittsburgh -128  *7:05 EST

Look I am fading Snell off the DL in this one after Tampa won last night.  Pitt has their ace Nova on the hill, and the D Rays are 2-8 in Snells last 10 road starts and 2-7 overall in his last 9 overall starts.  He gets lit up on the road.   All over a team off a loss at home with their ace on the hill against a bad starter.

Play 2 Units on Pitt - Top Play - Listed PITCHERS ONLY 

#908 - D Backs +105  *9:40 EST

D Backs are heating back up and St Louis cooling off.  D Backs scoring over 6 runs a game at home and have the better offense.  Two decent pitchers tonight and when I have a home team with a better offense with a good pitcher on the hill, I look for run support in a homer friendly environment. I know Martinez is hot and has a great ERA but look at his record, no run support in good efforts means nothing.  he also is 2-5 on the road and over a 4 ERA, not like he is at home any stretch!   Walker for AZ under a 3 ERA his last 3 starts and a 3-0 record, RUN SUPPORT!  Cheap number here for a home team with a bullpen at a 1.29 ERA in their last 5.  

Play 1 Unit on Arizona  

#963 /964  Dodgers / Angels   OVER 9  *10:10 EST

Look for some fireworks here.  The Dodgers are hot at the plate going up against Nolasco for the Angels who has been lit up lie a Christmas tree against good hitting teams.  Hill for the Dodgers is inconsistent and has over a 4 ERA at home.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Kansas City +105  *2:15 EST

Are you kidding me with Vargas as a dog or near pick em?  First MLB pitcher with 10 wins, a shoe in for the All Star Game in the AL and KC off another late inning winner last night in prime shape here.  Short on time, but I will take this pitcher at this price no matter who KC is playing.  KC never gives up and I like their chances at home with the ace on the hill.

Play 2 Units on Kansas City

#927 - Astro's +107  10:10 EST

King Felix takes the hill against the red hot hitting Astro's hitting right handers at over .300 as a team their last 5 games.  This is Hernandez's first start in 2 months and I doubt he is in top form and Houston will not have mercy.  While Houston will give up some runs, rarely do you get the best team in MLB against a beatable team and catching juice on the moneyline - too good to pass up.

Play 1 Unit on Houston  

Cubs -127

Going with the Cubbies here on the road with Jake Arrieta and fading Locke and the Marlins at home,  Locke in bad form and the Cubs heating up a bit here with a 6-4 run and clearly have the stat advantages here and the better pitcher at a reasonable number.

Play 1 Unit on the Cubs

NOTE:  To all clients - I am going on vacation this week and weekend and will not be posting more than one play or maybe two over the next 5 days.  Everyone needs a vacation but I am never far from a PC and my contacts if a gem pops up.  

#925 - Houston -120  *10:05 EST 

Cheap number and although the line smells fishy but I am going with Pitt who has won 2 straight in this series with ease, and simply put have a vastly better offense than the A’s.  The power ratings in MLB have Houston at #1 and Oakland around #26 and yet a cheap line.  Fiers starts for Houston with a 1.40 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#967 / 968 - Under 11 Cleveland / Baltimore   *7:05 EST 

I understand the level f distrust with starting pitchers in this one, but Tomlin is 6-1 on the Under in his last 7 road starts, and both teams have key offensive weapons out tonight which will affect runners in scoring position and getting them home.  Neither team is known as slugging type teams either and this total is too high in my opinion.  Not a pitcher’s duel by any stretch of the imagination, however Tillman is due for a good outing and he may against the Tribe’s offense tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Brewers +112 * 7 EST

Tricked up like that makes you wonder, Brew Crew first in division and have won 5 out of 6 and a home dog against a weak hitting Pirates team with a high ERA pitcher on the hill?   Yep, I am drinking the kool aid here and taking the home dog.  

Pirates .204 as a team batting the last 5 and taking that on the road?

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

Colorado -1.5 runs (+105)  RUN LINE WAGER - LAY IT  *3:10 EST 

Freeland at home is solid for Colorado and this play is ALL ABOUT FADING MATT CAIN.  Plain and simple, he is deplorable on the road and Colorado can light him up.

Play 1 Unit on Colorado on the RUNLINE

#953 / 954 - D Backs  / Phillies Under 8.5  *7:05 EST

The D Backs hitting just .266 on the road this year, deplorable.  D Backs Also Under 21 out of 32 on the road this season and they face a hot pitcher.  Phillies no juggernaut at the plate either and are in a total funk at the plate and struggle against southpaws.  This line dropped a half run out of the gate. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

White Sox +106  *2:10 EST (early start)

Short on time here.  Fading the O's on the road where they are 7-20 their last 27 and Tillman who starts for the O's got hammered his last outing and didn't last 3 innings and overall in his 4 starts the O's have been outscored 31-9.  Fading a pitcher in bad form and a bad road and getting added juice on the moneyline?  A Take for me.

Play 1 Unit on the White Sox 

Arizona +105

Listed [pitchers only as ALWAYS!   Like the D Backs tonight, red hot and going for 6 straight against the AL in interleauge play and I am fading Zimmerman who had a horrific May and Arizona's Walker the better pitcher, Arizona has the better offense and defense and off a late inning win last night in a high scoring game. Detroit on a 1-4 slide.  Taking the hot hand at a good price on the moneyline.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona  

#922 - Miami -123   *7:10 EST 

Oakland is a deplorable road team, and are getting 3.7 runs on the road this year and also in interleague play have allowed an unreal 8 runs per game.  Marlins can put runs up here big time and a team with more offense at home against a bad road team in Oakland is a take.  Oakland a major fade team on the road guys, they have managed just 9 wins out of 32 road games, and this is a cheap number in that scenario.

Play 1 Unit on Miami  

#709 - Cleveland +8.5 to 9

I think Cleveland makes a stand.  They can get physical and make this a game tonight, not sure if they can win, but I expect a high scoring game and James to have a huge night.  Nothing comes easy and a spread like this, in a Game 5 when a team faces elimination is too many.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

#929 / 930  Royals / Padres OVER 8.5  *4:40 EST

Had the over in this series as a Free Play on Saturday and they scored 18 runs, and 27 runs in the first two games.  As bad as the pitchers were Saturday, they are worse today with new comer Junis for KC at a 9,72 ERA his last 2 starts and Lamet for the Padres at a 6.92 ERA his last 3 starts and both pitchers WHIP's are deplorable.  Should be another high scoring affair between two bad teams.

Play 2 Units on the OVER  (Listed pitchers only as always) 

#955 - Miami -115  *4:05 EST

Short and Sweet.  Miami is red hot at the plate, scored 12 runs last night, and the bullpen of Pittsburgh is depleted.  A Mis Match in my opinion and doubt the Pirates starter goes deep and the bullpen will get lit up again.  Going with the hoit hand in this one. 

Play 1 Unit on the Marlins

UNDER 228 Cavs / Warriors  *9 EST 

Enough written about these two over and over, we all know the drill, Golden State with scorers all over the place, Cavs a more than a few of their own, a rabid pace and 3 pointers flying everywhere.  Cleveland has NO chance to win if they allow a rabid pace in this one and Golden State does hit the boards and play defense, I think this will be slower paced.  This line has shot way up from previous game. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under

#971 / 972  - OVER 9 Seattle / Minnesota  *10:10 EST

Two high ERA pitchers, both right handers, going up against each opponent who in their last 5 games have both teams lighting up right handed pitchers.  As a matter of fact Seattle is batting .349 as a team against right handers.  These two scored 11 runs last night against better pitchers, and the Over is 6-2 the last 8 in this series.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER   *(Listed pitchers only as always guys) 

#705 - Golden State -3  *9 EST Wednesday

If you have not been paying attention, the addition of Durant to an already loaded roster with revenge has the Warriors dominating everyone including King James. No team has an answer - None.  Cleveland has NO answer and that has been on displays and apparently have absolutely no defense as well, but that is not news.  Golden State may have the best Roster ever in the NBA right now, undefeated in the post season and Killing everyone.  They also recall having a 2-0 lead last year and losing to the Cavs in this series and they have stated from the top they are not letting off the throttle at any point in this series.  Cleveland at home makes no difference to me, and for a team who had their ass whipping in every phase of the game and getting pounded by double digits only  getting 3 is a trick line, because while the venue changes, it is what it is on the floor, Cleveland may not win a game here and to the surprise of no one.

Play 2 Units on Golden State 

#951 - St Louis -123  *7:10 EST 

Wainwright is back, the guy is unreal as of late and we catch the Cards off a loss as well.  In his last 4 starts which is over 26 innings he has allowed just 1 earned run and pitched shutout 7 innings at Coors Field in the process on the road, WOW.  No more words need to be said.  Love the Cards tonight and a short number in rebound mode.

Play 1 Unit on St Louis (Listed pitchers only as always) 

#911 - Astro's -140  *8:15 EST

Fading an ice cold KC team with no support against the high flying Astor's who I cashed as a Top Play.  10-0 their last 10, and I fully expect an ass kicking in KC tonight.  Houston red hot, hot at the plate and KC cannot match runs, and Kennedy who takes the hill for KC over a 12 ERA in his last 3 starts and is 0-5 on the year!  KC off a 8-0 butt whipping Sunday.  Looks too easy, but it is.  

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#703/704  Over 220.5 Cavs / Warriors Game 2 Sunday  *8 EST

The Warriors laying 9 scares me a bit but the Cavs know if they go down 0-2 they have a 14% chance of winning the series based on the fact that is the percentage in NBA history of teams down 0-2 in the finals.  Cleveland shot terrible in game 1 (36% from the floor), turned it over 20 times and allowed 56 points in the paint, and the scary thing is the Warriors did not shoot that well and still managed 113 points.  Both teams pull out all the stops here, offense on display.  Golden State had 5 straight Overs until the last game which I had the under, however teams will be looser and shoot better in Game 2.  Warriors have scorers 5 deep on the floor and 3 more on the bench and Cleveland has no answer for Durant. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#973 - Houston -124  *3:05 Est

Bump this up to 1.5 Units.  Peacock on the hill for the Astros going for the sweep and a very cheap number for the better team here who is clearly on a roll.  Houston has outscored Texas in this series 13-6 and I see them getting it done today with a solid pitcher on the hill.  A 2.13 ERA and season long 0.99 WHIP against a struggling offense.  Houston is hot at the plate and provide plenty of run support today.

Play 1.4 Units on Houston 

#929 - Washington -119  *4:05 EST

Took the Nats last night and will take them again with Ross on the hill, who is from the bay area and despite recent form, he can heal up against the non existent A's offense who is second to last in batting average and runs scored in MLB right now.  Like the offense here of Washington going up against a fill in pitcher in Mengden who was lit up last time he saw the mound and was yanked after 3.1 innings.  Look the A's offense is in the tank and despite Harper being out the Nats scored 13 last night!  

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#979 - Nationals -133  *10:05 EST

A little pricey against Triggs here but Starsburg but a ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 0.82 his last 3 starts, and 6-1 on the year and I am going with him and the Nats tonight on the road in what should be a low scoring game as well.  Oakland has lost 5 out of their last 6 and they are off a 8-0 loss against the Tribe and I question their ability here to get many runners in scoring position tonight against a great pitcher in good form.  yeah Bryce Harper is out, but I think that held this line down a bit and the first place Nats have plenty of bats for run support. 

Play 1 Unit on Washington (ALWAYS remember - listed pitchers only in every single play I put out) 

#701/702 - UNDER 223.5 to 224 Cavs / Warriors *9 EST 

Golden State plays a good brand of defense. Better than most realize.  Both teams well rested so the defense will play well.  9 out of the last 10 times these two met, none of those totals exceeded this total but one time.  Durant on James should contain him.  Both teams will be tight early on as well. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#921 - Detroit -130  *8:15 EST

KC took the lead and gave it up yesterday in a 10-7 loss, and the bats of KC have come out of hibernation a little, however the Royals are starting a farm pitcher from Omaha (4.52 ERA in the Minors, not impressed) as they lost their ace Danny Duffy for 2 months to injury and this kid will have serious issues with the Tigers tonight and with Veerlander on the hill for Detroit, he can hold KC’s inconsistent bats at bay. 

Play 1 Unit on Detroit 

Kansas City +129  *  110 EST

KC has not had a road sweep since June of 2003!  WOW  I think they get it here as the worst hitting offense in MLB has come alive, and KC winning from behind, playing small ball, hitting home runs at crucial moments - SOUND FAMILIAR?   KC has their pitcher on the mound in Duffy while he faces a fading Josh Tomlin who has been lit up like a Christmas tree as of late and all year actually with over a 6 ERA.  Love KC in this spot.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City

#960 - Pirates -130  *7:15 EST

Taking Cole at home here who is a different animal pitching in Pittsburgh, Under a 2 ERA this year.  The Pirates are a great Saturday bet, 6-1 this season on Saturday games and I like getting Cole off a loss here at home.  Wheeler for the Mets has control issues and can get lit up but has pitched well in this last 3 however we are catching a good team at home with a solid home pitcher off an embarrassing 7 run loss last night, I like them to bounce back.

Play 1 Unit on Pittsburgh

San Fran -115

No idea why this price is cheap.  Matt Cain is a BEAST at home, 9-2 his last 11, and in his last 4 home starts a 1.19 ERA.  While Garcia is a rock star at home, he is a different animal on the road with almost an 5 ERA.  Love San Fran from a pitching mis-match standpoint and home field.

Play 2 Units on the Giants  

#961 / 962 - UNDER 7.5 Runs - Cards and Dodgers

Like the totals play here on Under the low total.  Both LA and St Louis are 2 of the top 4 teams offensively against right handed pitching, but both of the starters tonight warrant  a low total.  The first two game in this series has went Under the total, 6-1 last night with 12 hits total in the game and the combined pitching tonight is better (2-1 in the first game of the series!) .  3-2 type ballgame. Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.

Play 1 Unit on the Under - Listed pitchers only (as always) 

Celtics +10 to 10.5

I think Cleveland wins this game and no doubt the Celtics will have to run on pure adrenaline here, but at days end the fight the Celtics put up on their home floor as a #1 seed as they face elimination should be a good one.  Catching double digits on your home floor with no one expecting you to make a stand is good locker room material, and Cleveland at times can fall asleep at the wheel in the getaway car.  Boston has done a commendable job without Thomas in the lineup and can score in excess of 100 points without him, and bear in mind Stevens in the better coach of the two teams.  Custer's last stand so to speak, forget the stats and trends, Boston will try to gut this out and make a game of it and catching this many points at home with their season on the line is too good to pass up.  Last time I took Boston I got my ass handed to me, but I feel they are the best option tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Boston.  

#928 - Washington -146  *7:05 EST 

A little chalky yes, and almost at my max limit of -150 but worth the stretch. I love the Nats tonight at home against a pitcher making basically his second start in the Big’s.  The Nats are #1 in almost every offensive category in MLB, and managed a 10-1 win last night against the Mariners.  The average 5.8 runs per game and they also have Seattle’s number winning 12 out of the last 13 meetings.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#505 -506 - Over 217.5 Cavs / Celtics  *8:30 EST 

Let’s look at this scenario tonight.  The Celtics scored 111 without their floor general and leading scorer Thomas in the last game on the ROAD!  Cleveland has not played defense all season and just decided to outscore everyone as their benchmark.  The Cavs blew a huge lead in Game 3 and LeBron was a no show and they still managed 108 points with the best player in the NBA taking a nap.  Enough said.  Expect James and the Cavs to have a big night and for Boston to pull out all the stops.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

#963 -964 - Under 8.5 Runs NY Yankees and KC Royals  *7:05 Est 

Duffy on the Hill for KC , who is their Ace with under a 2 ERA his last 3 starts and KC has had trouble with Montgomery for the Yanks in the past week already, and we all know Kansas City’s bats are deplorable and they score less than 3 runs a game on the road.  Two decent pitchers, and Duffy the better one who will hold the Yanks down in runs here, and KC will as always for the most part have issues getting runners over home plate. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#725 /726 - OVER 217.5 to 218  Spurs / Warriors 

No time for writeup on Monday - Play 1 Unit - I expect plenty of scoring guys.

Play 1 Unit

# 503 / 504 - UNDER 215 Cleveland / Boston  *8:30 EST 

11 out of the last 16 games in this series has went Under, and despite the Cavs scoring 130 points the last game went under as well.  Floor General and scorer Thomas out for Boston, Cleveland should roll along along here and Boston;s only chance is to play as good as defense as they can because their scoring ability is hampered greatly with the guy who makes their offense work.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#974 -  Astros -110  *2:10 EST

Rarely get a good team at home with this number, and better yet the Stro's playing to avoid a weekend sweep at home by the Tribe here.  Salazar for Cleveland has over an 8 ERA in his last 3 starts, so Houston should be able to put some runners in scoring position here.  Astros in a hitting slump of sorts but Salazar has a WHIP over 2 in his last 3 and while Musgrove is no bargain for Houston his numbers short and long term are better and I expect the Astros to pull a win here and void an 0-3 series at a very cheap number.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#723 - Golden State -6.5   *9 EST

Well I made the mistake on Friday of taking the Celtics who have shown everyone oin Game 1 there were outmanned, and itr cost me.  I will not make the same mistake twice.  Bottom line is without Parker at Point Guard and Leonard, who is the best player on the Spurs roaster, either doubtful or way less than 100%, the Spurs are playing this series with 1 arm tied behind their back.  Yeah coach Pop is a great coach, but when your talent level and bench cannot match up to an opponent, this late in the playoffs, you are toast.  Have no illusions, Golden State is watching the Cleveland / Boston series closely and they no doubt think Cleveland will sweep as do I, and they also want to get out of this series in 4 games and rest up, they will show up here.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

#915 -916  Yankees / Rays Over 8   *4:11 EST 

Both teams in their last 5 have exceeded over a .317+ batting average against right handers, and while Tanka takes the hill for the Yankees, who lost by 1 run Friday in a 9 run game, his ERA this season is 5.80 and over a 9 ERA in his last 3 starts, I think the Rays will light him up.  Andriese is in good form for the Rays no doubt, and has a 2.08 ERA his last 3 starts, but honestly I think the Yanks pull some runs out of him.  The Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings and the Yankees off a loss are 12-5 on the Overs, and Tampa as a team in 10-1 on the Over their last 11 games.  

1 Unit on the Over 

#502 - Celtics +5.5   830 EST

I was all over the Cavs for a Top Play in Game 1, but now that the Celtics, who roared back in Game in 1 to make it halfway respectable, have a do or die situation here as home court is something they need to protect here tonight to have ANY chance of playing this series out.  They are the #1 seed at home down 0-1.  While I am unsure as good as Cleveland is playing, they are due for a loss and Boston will play better after a short rest and wake up call after battling Washington so hard to get here, they flat out were not at their best in Game 1 and I think they bring it in game 2 here with Thomas playing better and a better team effort.  Stevens is a good coach, better than the Cavs coach and he should dial it in tonight.  I expect a tight game and will grab the home dog here and go against the public.  

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

#721- Cleveland -4   *8:30 EST

There is something to be said about time off versus a team who has ben playing and are in sync, but the comparison ends there.  Cleveland was a 23 point winner over Boston back in early April and the are rested, have the best player in the NBA and are hungry for the finals againsyt no doubt Golden State.  Boston spent a ton of energy against Washington to get here and I think LeBron and the boys cover this with ease out of the gate and I like their road record in the post season.

Play 2 Units on Cleveland

#953 - Brewers +111  *10:10 EST

Rode the Brew Crew as a dog on Sunday as a free play and they are in sync and on a 6-1 run taking on the Padres who were on the road this weekend and also are scoring a little over 3 runs at home and allowing over 5 runs at home.  Taking a hot team here who should be able to put up some runs against Perdomo despise is his recent form, run support is an issues.  Anderson is 3-1 his last 4 against the Padres with an ERA of 3.60.  

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

Over 209.5 Washington  / Boston

Both teams will pull out all the stops after a rough game in game 6 shooting-wise.  Washington was 5 for 24 and Boston was 11 for 35 from 3 point range.  Both teams have backcourts than can and will do better.  This line was as high as 219 in this series and also this is a 6 point adjustments after the low scoring game 6.  Side Play too close to call, but like a shootout here with the Conference Finals on the line.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

#502 - Golden State -10  *3:30 EST

Well Las Vegas oddsmakers BEGGING YOU to take these points.  A ton of points for a conference final.  There is a reason. Public and many sharps on Spurs, not me.   Leonard not 100% and the Warriors Green will neutralize him.  Warriors have shooters all over the floor, at home and well rested.  The Spurs impressive blowout win over Houston where Harden never got off the bus and looked like dog crap makes you foam at the mouth to take this number, but I am not buying it.  Everyone has known all season long it was simply an exhibition season until Cleveland meets Golden State which no doubt will happen, and I am willing to lay it as Golden State makes a statement here against a tired and wounded Spurs team without any star power at point guard with Parker out, and it shows against this team.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

#971 -  O's / Royals UNDER 8.5  *7:15 Est 

Not sold on the Royals here after a loss but not willing to take the O's on the road dropping 2 straight headed into this game. Both teams do not hit right handers well, but are crushing southpaws, but at days end 2 RIGHT HANDERS START IN WHAT SHOULD BE A LOW SCORING GAME WHERE RUNS WILL BE AT PREMIUM. . Royals, who have the worst record in the AL have great pitching and no hitting.  They score 2.83 runs at home, and allow just 2.89 runs against them at Kaufman.  15 out of KC's last 20 home games have went Under the number.  Wow.  

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#930 - White Sox -127  * 8 EST

All over the Sox at home as Chacin for the Padres is a different animal on the road, over a 10 ERA and his last 3 starts overall over a 6 ERA.  Like Gonzales at home here.  Fading the road pitcher on a cheap number.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago Sox

#711 /712 - OVER 216 Boston / Washington  *8 EST

Have no doubts as the game was 224 and Washington played like dog crap in an embarrassing loss.  4-1 on the overs the last 5, this will be a shootout - Short and Sweet today.  Both teams should be well over 100+ here.  The Wiz will pull out all the stops here.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

#957 / 958 - Yankees /  Astros  UNDER 7.5   *7:05 EST 

Two good pitchers and should be a low scoring affair with hits and runs at a premium.  Astros pitching and bullpen is dealing it as well.  Stro's 14-5 on Unders in game 1 of a series, WOW... 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Washington +4.5

Home court becomes less of a factor this deep into any series, and I think this is a down to the wire game.  The team that wins game 5 in a toed series like this is an 80% of the time winner of the entire series so a ton on the line.  John Wall for Washington has stunk it up the last 2 games.  15 out of 44 shots and the Wizards won by a combined point total in those 2 games of 46 points?  WOW.  Also the Wizards have figured out how to shut down Thomas, last game just 3 total shots in the second half.

Play 1 Unit on Washington. 

UNDER 214.5 to 215 - Houston / San Antonio

Look with Parker out the Spurs are having issues with guard scoring and this is a HUGE game for the series and a turning point for one of these teams nightlight and I expect a disciplined game out of the Spurs and for them to play fundamental defense that they tend to do at home.  Doubt Houston makes 19 three pointers here tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#911- Tampa Bay -142   *7:10 est 

Kansas City cannot hit, and on the road, are 0-8 their last 8, and they are also starting a high ERA pitcher tonight.  Bad situation for KC.   Tampa is no world beater but Kansas City is a fade team until they start hitting.

Play 1 Unit on Tampa Bay

BONUS PLAY – Golden State -8 to 8.5 – Half Unit to 1 Unit Max.  Bonus 

#515 - Spurs ++5.5

No time for writeup today - too many points for the Rockets - Spurs flat out bettereven without Parker.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio

OVER 208 - Jazz / Warriors 

Play 1 Unit on the over gents - Short on time today but I expect both teams to eclipe 100+ tonight and Golden State is simply unstoppable.  Jazz should shoot well at home.

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

Cavs -2 (Open line on Thursday it will go up)  Good to -4 in my opinion)

Look Cleveland blew out the Raptors by double digits on the road last year in the playoffs, have waxed them twice and nothing changes in my mind.  LeBron a 1 man wrecking crew and the offense of the Cavs is on fire.  They are 10 points better than Toronto anywhere on the road, this line is DIRT FREAKING CHEAP at a bucket or 3 pointer- despite Lue not being the best coach in this series, Cleveland simply has their number and with the better team by numerous points, laying a small number with the best player in the NBA in the post season is always a take.  I am drinking the ikool aid here without hesitation. Cavs on a roll. 

Play 3 Units on the Cavs 

#507 - Utah Jazz +12.5  *10:30 EST

Look no doubt the Warriors are the better team, but not by a landslide.  Utah is sneaky good, can score and have played Defense well, and held the Warriors, off a brutal 7 games series on tired legs to 10 points below their 5 game average on offense in the last game.  The number is 1 point lower at the open here than the last game which Utah barely covered.  Golden State wins, but it will not come easy and this is a shit load of points in the second round of the post season.  Utah 6-0 ATS their last 6 roadies. 

Play 1 Unit on Utah

#733 - Houston +5.5  *9:35 EST 

If you are going zig zag theory on this game I think you are wring.  San Antonio is old and slow no matter how well coached,  and got their ass kicked BADLY as a favorite in the last game at home, and the team that hammered them, with arguably the NBA’s MVP. only having 20 points in the process!  Houston has covered and won SU their last 6 playoff games at San Antonio, no other team can make that claim, and while I see the Spurs making a supreme effort here no doubt, laying 5.5 to 6 points against a team that shit hammered you by 27 2 days ago is too many, as Houston is for real gents, and can score with anyone in the NBA.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

#503 / 504 - UNDER 207  Warriors / Jazz  *10:30 est

The defense of the Jazz is key in this, and the fact they will be without Favors tonight and perhaps if he does play it will not be at 100% by  any means.  The last 4 in this series has went Under the number, and 13 out of the last 1 in Golden State in this series has went under.  Golden State off 8 days of rest and the Jazz off a brutal  game series.   Look for Utah to slow it down a bit and put their defense to work.  Golden State loaded I know but I do not see Utah breaking a 100 here tonight and GS can also play some defense as well, as they can be sneaky good on D. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#922 - Kansas City -110  *8:15 EST

Listed pitchers only.  KC sends a hot Duffy to the hill tonight, 10-1 in his last 11 home starts and KC off a hugely needed win Monday as well, at home with decent weather for once on Tuesday.  Quintana on the mound for the White Sox and the team as a whole are 1-4 in his last 5 starts, he sports a 5-17 record against the Royals.  Not willing to lay more than this with KC with their batting issues at any point but they should get in some runs tonight at home with their ace on the hill off a 6-1 win last night.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas City 

#724 - Cleveland -6.5  *7:05 EST

Shit or get of the pot for the well rested Cavs.  They dominated Toronto last year laying huge numbers in the playoff series and covering them, and I think at home the Cavs will make a statement out of the gate, as they were winning by the skin of their teeth against Indiana.  Toronto's front-court will be troublesome for the Cavs no doubt but I do see in Game 1 a supreme effort from the Cavs.  Lets of stats point towards the Raptors, Cleveland was barely winning games and this number should be lower to the naked eye, but oddsmakers are begging you to take the Raptors here, I am going contrarian...too easy to take Toronto here and think it is an easy money deal.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

Washington +4.5   *1:05 EST 

Chicago lost their mojo with their best guard out, No such luck with John Wall around and the Wizards are my pick to challenge in the title game for the Eastern Conference all along.  Boston got a break against Chicago, I like the Wizards chances here of a SU Win with a hot backcourt.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#960 - D Backs -135     *8" EST

Cannot pass up Greinke here at home, and surely cannot pass him up in April, where he has won 20 out of 27 starts in April, as well as the fact the Rockies won last night 3- in here.  Colorado is a hell of a road team at 8-3 this year which gives me slight pause, but they are starting a pitcher in Anderson who has a 7 ERA his last 3 starts and his bullpen in the last 5 games has a 10 ERA to back him up against one of the better pitchers in MLB at home!   

Play 1 Unit on Arizona 

#509 / 510 - UNDER 204 Bulls / Celtics  *8 EST

Chicago HAS to play the good defense they are known for tonight or they lose.  Boston has not been shooting all that well either.  This is a HUGE game and I expect both to be tight tonight and play it close to the vest.  The Bulls offense is also hampered without Rondo.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

#505/506-  UNDER 19.5 Griz / Spurs  930 EST 

The last game they ended on 219.  Memphis is not playing the defense they are known for and will pull out all the stops on offense to avoid elimination tonight.  They Spurs will gun it all night and try to seal the series.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#712 - Boston -7.5   *8:30 EST 

Chicago Done, Rondo done, Boston has not won a game at home in this series and just blew the doors off the dejected Bulls in both games.  Bulls done, they will throw it in early, expect Boston to ROLL.  Also Hoiberg cannot coach in the NBA if you haven’t noticed!

Play 1 Unit on Boston

#980 -  St Louis -135  *8:15 EST

Cannot take the Blue Jays who have offensive issues and other issues on the road tonight against the Cards with Wacha on the hill at home.  The Cards have not started out well but have played better and with Estrada on the hill for the Jays, this is a pitchers duel and with Toronto;s hitting woes, I will side with the home team with better run support who in fact in their last 5 games have hit right handers at .293 as a team.  Toronto 3-7 in their last 10 road games. 

Play 1 Unit on St Louis

BONUS PLAY -  #977 -  Oakland A's +117 (Half Unit)  **10 EST 

Bucks +6

Too many here as the Bucks have been a thorn in the side of the Raptors and the Raptors hit and miss offense is not reliable enough to lay big points, and trust me 6 or more is big points in the NBA especially post season.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

UNDER 8 to 8.5 Royals / Rangers   *3 EST 

This entire series is a snooze fest and Kansas City has absolutely no bats outside of Cain so far.  Kansas City's pitching and defense is awesome, they simply cannot get a hit it seems.  Texas is not lighting it up either at the plate  and both teams batting average is pathetic the last 5 games.  Two decent pitchers and Darvish should give KC a lot of issues.

Play 1 Unit on the Under  

#509 / 510 - Cavs / Pacers OVER 212.5   *1 EST 

I took the Over int he last game and while this may seem like a slow the pace and try and hang to save out life game for the Pacers - Cleveland plays no defense and again will just try and outscore you, especially late.  All games have went over and oddsmakers are slow to adjust this line raising it just 2 points from the last total and these 2 are flying over the total. 5-1 on the Over the last 6 times and expect Cleveland to open it up and try and close this out today.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY -  Boston -2.5 *6:30 EST (Rondo out is a huge deal for the Bulls - Like Celtics to even it up in a lower scoring slugfest) 

#505 - Spurs -3.5  *8 EST

Off a loss I LOVE the Spurs to bounce back here HUGE.  They dropped their guard in Game 3 after 2 dominating performances and there are few teams as good on the road as San Antonio.  I expect them to open up the scoring here and DOMINATE this game.  I have seen this time and time again over the years, a clear cut favorite and higher seed who can name the score play a lazy game.  San Antonio out-stats Memphis in almost every category and surely will be coached up by Coach Pop in this one, no brainer blowout in my opinion as the Spurs reassert themselves and they want to get out of this series ASAP and rest up for round 2, no more going through the motions.  Parker was scoreless in Game 3, expect a big day from him as well. 

Play 2 Units on San Antonio - TOP PLAY 

#715 - Boston -1.5 to 2  *7 EST 

Statement Game folks.  #1 seed and down 0-2 and the Bulls without Rondo.  Boston has had time to reflect, gather their poise, Thomas time to get over grieving his sister and this game is do or die with the best team in the East  (according to records anyway) to step up and make a statement. Boston has the players and coaching here to get over Chicago on the road.  You stat look at this, trend look at this all you want and it favors Chicago, but I have seen this scenario (well not a #1 seed down 0-2 to #8 but you get my drift), many times over my 25 years of capping games, and sometimes you flat out go with your gut and Boston will leave nothing to chance in this game, and put it all on the floor tonight bar none.  Worth the stretch with just a 3 pointer to cover despite the Bulls defense which has been outstanding.  Look for Boston to hit the boards hard and reduce turnovers. 

Play 1 unit on Boston

#915 /916 - UNDER 9 Royals / Rangers  *8 EST

Kansas City got to .500 winning 5 out of 6 despite no offense.  Duffy on the Hill for KC and he has performed well and with Texas off a 9 game road trip I do not expect them to light him up and Kansas has no offense despite their 5-1 run.  Low scoring all the way.KC less than 3 earned runs allowed in 6 straight games. 

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

Over 210-.5 Cavs / Pacers

Indiana will pull out all the stops at home here and Cleveland plays no defense so they will counter punch on offense instead.  Both games have went over the total in this series and oddsmakers after a 228 point output in game 2 have adjusted the total a half point from the last game which was 210.  These two are averaging 225 on offense their last 5 combined and allowed 220.

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

BONUS PLAY:  Spurs in late game -3.5  HALF UNIT  

#702 - Washington -5  *7 EST

Wiz already cleaned their clocks once on the road and Atlanta a horrific road team especially in the post season.  Washington better, backcourt better, home court strong.  I know dogs dominated yesterday and you have the much publicized zig zag approach to playoff betting however Washington should roll here big.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Jazz +9

Clippers all over the place and too inconsistent, and the Jazz did a hell of a job in the second half game 1 on defense, even without their big guy in the lineup, and LA simply is not 9 points better than the Jazz gents. Tight game all the way, value in the number.

Play 1 Unit on Utah  

#518 - Cavs -8   *7 EST

Short and Sweet - Took Indiana on Saturday and cashed them but this is the game Cleveland opens up a can of whoop ass.  They blew a 10 point 4th quarter lead and played shoddy down the stretch.  Think this is the game they put it all together.  Indiana gave them their best shot and still failed, that will deflate them in game 2, seen it a million times in the post season.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

#513 - Chicago +6 to 6.5  *6:30 EST 

Boston while being well coached and the #1 seed in the east still lacks good defense and that brings big points into play.  As you saw Saturday outside of the Spurs kicking ass, was the 3 other dogs covering and one winning outright.  These 2 Split the regular season 2-2 but Da Bulls still remember a 20 point whipping they took last month and with their offense scoring over 100 ppg and their defense playing lights out late in the season I will grab the points here.

Play 1 Unit on the Bulls 

#501- Indiana +8.5 to 9   *3 EST 

Cleveland limped in here losing 4 straight, and are a mess in my opinion.  Indiana won their last 5 games, covered their last 6 in a row and have no pressure on them while the world awaits Cleveland to snap out of it and magically appear as unbeatable with King James leading the charge.  They have no defense, which brings big points into play and I will gladly take a hungry Pacer team to make a good showing here against a team who gave up 100 ppg in their last 5 games they were trying to win. 

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

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Boston -135

Porcello at home on the mound and a rested team against Tampa.  No doubt Archer is no slouch for the Rays but Boston has lit up right handers at .289 as a team so far this season and Tampa in their last 5 hitting righties at .200.  Home team, stud pitcher, under -140 is a gift here.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Cubs -120

Two southpaws starting, Cubs bats eat alive left handers and the Dodgers struggle big time against them.  1-9 as a team against starting left handers their last 10 times.

Short and Sweet, 2 Unit on Chicago Cubs 

Oakland A's +101

I went to the royal home opener.  The Royals right now are sad.  No bats, no fire and just plain below average.  Less than 3 runs per game,   Batting less than .200 as a team, and their vaunted bullpen has an ERA of 7.77.  Can you say outloud they need Davis back?   Oakland gets them in KC tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Oakland 

Brooklyn +11

The Celtics have been playing piss poor and Thomas is the only one producing on a consistent basis.  the Nets 11-11 the last 22 SU and playing with purpose and fire and won't lay down.  All the pressure on Boston as they try to get the #1 seed, things do not come easy this time of the year.

Play 1 Unit on Brooklyn 

#503 - Cleveland -2   *3:35 EST 

The Hawks embarrassed the Cavs in their last game this is payback and possible for the #1 seed in the East as Cleveland in a dogfight with Boston for the top spot.  Expect all starters from the Cavs here and a supreme effort at a low number I find value with the Best team in the east despite their recent woes.

Play 2 Units on Cleveland 

#703 - Boston -1.5 to 2  *6:00 EST

Celtics playing for #1 seed against a team they are 7-1 ATS the last 8.  4-0 SU  / ATS the last 4.  With Cleveland losing Friday this is a huge game and no one on Boston, even though they have been so/so the past week, is overlooking this game as Boston is playing for everything and the Hornets playing for nothing.  The Celtics recent form has this number low and ripe for the taking in my opinion.

Play 1 Unit on Boston. 

#709 - Bulls -3.5   *8:05 EST Tip 

The Bulls are hot and the Knicks could care less.  Have you see the Knicks the play?  They have thrown it in and do not play hard for their coach and total mess.  That time of the season when teams in the playoffs hunt bring it and others do not.  That is the case here.

Play 1 Unit on Da Bulls

Gonzaga +1.5 to 2  *9:20 EST 

You know the ACC is 3-14 ATS in the post season?  Over rated again, the mighty ACC.  Mark Few is a Better coach than ol Roy Boy too – BIG TIME.  The Zags big guys are going to pose a huge problem for Meeks and the all the paint action for NC.  Carolina also loves to foul, and the Zags can knock down FT’s.  That is why Oregon almost beat NC and should have in all honesty, and I was on NC for a 2 unit play.  Lesson learned.  Roy Williams is an average coach at best with talent galore. He reminds me of Mack Brown when he coached at Texas.  Loaded but fail in the limelight 99% of the time.  Zags also play better defense by a long shot and are the dog.  Mighty NC is a Massive public favorite in every game and yet oddsmakers have this at a near pick’em.  WHY?  Because they know this is a coin flip and the Zags could win, and that is why the Zags are only -107 on the moneyline and not getting more juice their way.  Is it impossible for NC to lose in the title game 2 years in a row?  Everyone says no.  Ask the Buffalo Bills if you can get to the big game more than once and still lose, it is more than possible.  Williams Goos is as good as any guard NC has and can score at will and with the defense that NC plays he will get open looks.  I am going contrarian here and bucking the public and more than one sharp and taking the Zags to win it.

Play 1 Unit on Gonzaga

March Madness clients and CBB Clients – Had some great winning streaks long term in CBB this year and one horrific February run as well, not my best year.  March Madness did not turn a profit for the first time in 5 years and I apologize for that.  I could make up a 100 excuses but won’t. I am paid to win, and this time around I failed with great frustration. It was a crazy tourney with huge surprises and 1 or 2 point bad beats all over the place, and I was on the wrong side.  I will strive to be better next season and know after 25 years I will be better, long term success tells me so.   Appreciate your biz this season. On with NBA and MLB gents.    

#517 - Bulls +6.5  *6:05 EST Tip

Both teams surging, Pelican 8-3 SU run and the Bulls won 4 out of 5 and beat the Cavs in their last game.  I like this game to be a good game tonight and the Bulls to hang within the large number here.  Chicago has won the last 5 in this series SU and won by 8 at home earlier this season.  Chicago also has the better defensive team here and Butler has been been solid for them and a huge playmaker down the stretch. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS their last 8 trips here and are 4-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record their last 4 times.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago 

#814 - North Carolina -5   *8:40 EST 

Hate to lay over 3 in any game in the final 4 ever, however NC lost the title on the last shot of the game to Nova last year, fought and clawed to get back here, and frankly the game is going to be won in the paint.  The PAC 12 is not the ACC by any stretch and both Zona and UCLA got their ass handed to them, and Oregon beating a Kansas team who RARELY performs past the sweet 16 under Bill Self is not that impressive.  This is when Oregon’s second best rebounder being out hurts them.  NC should dominate the boards, which equates to easy buckets, which in turn also equates to owning the boards and controlling the game.  N. Carolina has experience big time and Oregon’s run, although well coached by Dana Altman, ends here.  Carolina has too many horses, and the Ducks depending on the 3 point shot to win big games rarely work out in big ones.

Play 2 Units on North Carolina 

#709 - Houston Pk to -1   ** *10:35 EST

Do not let this line fool you - good value here with the better team and the NBA's MVP playing well in the Rockets Harden.  This line is low due to Houston's loss to Golden State and the fact the Blazers, who I won with on Monday, are red hot.  Have no illusions, Houston is a beast on the road, 6-1 ATS their last 7 road games and the road team in this series is 11-5 ATS!  Nice trends, but trends do not win games, teams do, and Portland gets a dose of reality tonight in what should be an absolute shootout.  You are getting the better team here at less than a 2 point shot with the best player in the league arguably, and they are off a loss.

Play 1 Unit on Houston