25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers ML -118

BONUS BETS: I will be adding my favorite Super Bowl Props leading up to the Super Bowl. Check back below my analysis for these bonus bets.  I should have them all up by Saturday, February 10th.

If this game was played last week the 49ers would be -3.  But since the Chiefs pulled off the upset over the Ravens and the 49ers struggled to get by the Lions, this line has been adjusted down close to PK.  I will gladly take advantage and 'buy low' on the 49ers and 'sell high' on the Chiefs.

The 49ers were the highest power rated team in the NFL all season.  That means that they were the best team in the NFL all season.  I still believe that to be the case now even though they needed comebacks to beat both the Packers and the Lions.  But those two games are easily explainable.

The 49ers were overvalued going into both of those games laying -10.5 to the Packers and -7.5 to the Lions.  The Packers were as healthy as they had been all season which allowed them to upset the Cowboys on the road prior to giving the 49ers a run for their money.  But when Brock Purdy needed a drive the most down 4 in the 4th quarter, he came through with his best drive of the game and the game-winning score.

That confidence carried over to the game against the Lions.  Trailing 24-7 at halftime, the 49ers scored 27 unanswered points in the 2H behind Purdy and actually took a 10-point lead before the Lions got a garbage TD to win by 3.  The 49ers got the Lions' best shot and it was also a fully healthy Detroit team playing their best football of the season.  The Chiefs lost to the Lions AND the Packers earlier this season, and neither were playing as well as they were against the 49ers at the time the Chiefs lost to them.

The Chiefs are now 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat the Dolphins 26-7 in the playoff opener.  They took advantage of a depleted Miami defense and got to face the warm weather Dolphins at temperatures around zero degrees.  They upset the Bills 27-24 as 2.5-point road dogs in the Divisional Round.  They took advantage of a Buffalo defense that was decimated by injuries again.

Last week, the Chiefs pulled the 17-10 upset as 4.5-point road dogs at Baltimore.  The Ravens are fully to blame for this one.  They had a huge advantage on the ground and decided to let Lamar Jackson try to beat them with his arm.  They got away from their strength.  They only gave Gus Edwards three carries for 20 yards to the entire game.  It was mind-blowing.

The Ravens let the Chiefs off the hook, and so did the Bills.  After a run-heavy approach through three quarters, the Bills went away from the run in the 4th.  They rushed for 182 yards on the Chiefs in that game but inexplicably went away from it with the game on the line.  It also helped the Chiefs that Stefon Diggs dropped a potential TD bomb from Allen that would have changed the game.

The 49ers will not let the Chiefs off the hook.  Kyle Shanahan loves to run the football, and he will come with the proper game plan to beat Kansas City.  He will give it to his best offensive weapon in Christian McCaffrey.  He had 1,459 rushing yards and 14 TD during the regular season while also catching 67 balls for 564 yards and seven scores.  He has been a workhorse in these playoffs, rushing 37 times for 188 yards and 4 TD while also catching 11 balls for 72 yards.  Shanahan will put the game in his hands and open up play-action for Brock Purdy, who has proven he is more than just a game manager coming up clutch with comeback wins in back-to-back games.

The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry on the season.  They are an elite pass defense, but getting physical with them in the running game is what they are susceptible too.  The 49ers have the perfect answer with McCaffery and company.  We've seen the 49ers struggle against the outside zone against the run all season, including the last two weeks.  But the Packers with Aaron Jones and the Lions with their two-headed monster at RB in Montgomery and Gibbs thrive running the outside zone where they can use their speed to get to the edge.

The great news for the 49ers is after facing two great outside zone teams with two of the best offensive lines in the league, they now get to face the Chiefs, who run mostly inside zone.  The 49ers are elite at stopping runs into the middle of their line because of their elite LB's.  They struggle setting an edge at Nick Bosa and Chase Young sometimes get too pass rush-happy.  They won't have to worry about that against the Chiefs, who have a great pass blocking O-Line but not a good run blocking O-Line.

The Chiefs are going to put the ball in Mahomes' hands and try to attack the 49ers with the pass.  Well, the 49ers are elite against the pass especially to passes over the middle of the field, ranking 1st in the NFL in defending such passes.  That means they will be great at taking away Travis Kelce, which is Mahomes' biggest weapon.  The Chiefs have been getting by with their lack of playmakers on offense, but they will run out of luck this week.  Their defense has carried them, but I think the 49ers will do as much damage as any team has on that defense because they are loaded on offense and scoring 28.9 points per game this season.  The 49ers will defense the pass well enough.  They give up just 216 passing yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.

While the 49ers are about as healthy as they have been all season, the Chiefs have some key injuries on defense.  They just lost DE Charles Omenihu to a torn ACL against the Ravens when he got a sack-fumble of Lamar Jackson.  Omenihu has 8 sacks in just 12 games this season and is their best pass rusher opposite Chris Jones.  LB Willie Gay missed the Baltimore games and is questionable with a neck injury.  All-Pro G Joe Thuney also missed the Baltimore game and is questionable.  DT Derrick Nnadi has been placed on injured reserve.

Finally, it just feels like San Francisco's year after those two comeback wins to get here.  They basically never came back to win games in the 2H under Kyle Shanahan up until these playoffs.  Now they got the monkey off their back and are brimming with confidence.  Purdy is good enough to win a Super Bowl largely because of all the talent he has around him.  He also showed he can make plays with his legs if need be.  The 49ers desperately want revenge on the Chiefs after blowing a 10-point 4Q lead in their last trip to the Super Bowl.  But they don't have to deal with Tyreke Hill any more.  They are the more complete team and that will show on the field Sunday.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line.

Super Bowl Prop Bets: Listed in order of strongest to weakest

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception OVER 13.5 Yards (-130)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards OVER 19.5 (-115)

Kyle Juszczyk OVER 0.5 Receptions (-160)

McCaffrey OVER 90.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Ji'Ayir Brown OVER 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-130)

Which Team Will Have the Longest Gross Punt? 49ers (-115)

Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 Made Field Goals (-125)

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

Anytime TD Scorer: Noah Gray (+950)

Super Bowl MVP: Deebo Samuel (+2500)

20* Lions/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 51

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The 49ers played in the slop and rain last week against the Packers and it still should have gone over the 50.5-point total.  They just needed the Packers to make a FG that would have tied the game at 24-24 and at the very least forced OT.  But now the conditions are going to be perfect for a shootout in Santa Clara on Sunday with the forecast calling for temps in the 70's, 0% chance of precipitation and only 3 MPH winds.

The 49ers face a dead nuts OVER team in the Detroit Lions who have an elite offense that can match them, but one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL.  We saw the Lions allow 408 yards and and 6.8 yards per play against the Bucs last week and 425 yards and 7.7 yards per play to the Rams the week prior.  The Lions also faced the Vikings twice in the final three weeks and gave up 448 yards and 6.4 per play in the second meeting and 390 yards and 7.6 per play in the first, and that was to backup QB Nick Mullens.

Brock Purdy has a lot of critics for his performance against the Packers.  But the fact of the matter is he has small hands and struggles in rain and that has been shown dating back to college.  Purdy is in line for one of his best games of the season against this soft Detroit secondary that has allowed at least 319 passing yards in five consecutive games now.  

The worry was that Deebo Samuel would be out, but he returned to practice on Thursday and now Purdy should have his full compliment of weapons after Samuel was knocked out of the Green Bay game on the opening series.  That changed their entire game plan as Samuel was a big part of it, which also hampered their offense.  But Purdy came up big with his best drive of the game when they needed it most late in the 4th quarter to take the lead on the Packers, and that should have him brimming with confidence coming into this one and licking his chops at this opportunity to face Detroit's defense.

With the 49ers likely playing from ahead, the Lions are going to have to play with more of a sense of urgency on offense.  They have a great balanced attack that has produced 27.2 points per game, 232 rushing yards per game and 260 passing yards per game this season.  The concern is usually with Jared Goff going outdoors because he has much better numbers indoors.  But that concern is greatly mitigated with how perfect the weather conditions are going to be in Santa Clara.

This San Francisco defense has taken a big step back from last season and isn't as ferocious as it has been in years' past.  The 49ers gave up 29 points to the Cardinals and 33 points to the Ravens down the stretch.  Their secondary isn't great and they are lacking a pass rush.  They have also allowed over 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games.  For the first time in the Shanahan era, the 49ers are actually led by their offense and not their defense.

San Francisco is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  This one has shootout written all over it in a battle of two of the best offenses in the NFL up against two overrated defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Ravens AFC No-Brainer on OVER 44

BONUS PICK: I like a Ravens/49ers ML Parlay at basically even money.

The Baltimore Ravens are scoring 32.1 points per game at home this season.  That includes the 10 points they scored against the Steelers in Week 18 when they rested Lamar Jackson, or that number would be even higher.

The Ravens have the best offense they have ever had in the Jim Harbaugh era.  Todd Monken is a tremendous offensive coordinator and has gotten the most out of Lamar Jackson and all these playmakers.  The Ravens even get Mark Andrews back this week after not having him for the second half of the season to add another weapon.

The Chiefs have a great defense, but they got really banged up against the Bills last week.  LB Willie Gay, who is the spy for Jackson, left that game with a neck injury and is questionable.  Also questionable are CB L'Jarius Sneed and FS Mike Edwards, who also left the game last week.  This Kansas City defense isn't what it was in the regular season.

KC benefited from playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses this season.  When they stepped up in class they gave up 27 points to the Packers and 24 to the Bills.  They are weak against the run, and the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL.  I expect the Ravens to get what they want on the ground and to control this game from ahead.

With the Ravens being ahead, the Chiefs are going to be forced to try and play catch up, which is going to be good for the OVER.  The Chiefs have been playing with more tempo to try and get in a rhythm on offense, and it is working in these playoffs.  They had 26 points and 409 total yards on the Dolphins and 27 points and 361 total yards on the Bills.  They averaged 7.7 yards per play against the Bills last week and had eight plays of 20-plus yards.

No question the Ravens have elite defensive numbers this season, but they also benefited from playing backup and rookie QB's this season.  We saw them give up 33 points to the Browns when De'Sean Watson was healthy.  They also gave up 31 points to the Rams and 429 total yards to the 49ers.  I don't think they are as good defensively as their numbers would suggest, and the Chiefs will be able to score on them as well.

Kansas City is 8-1 OVER in its last nine road game with a total of 42.5 to 49 points.  Andy Reid is 13-3 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Kansas City.  The Chiefs play with more of a sense of urgency on offense when they are tested.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City +3

Note: Buy to +3 (-125) or better

I've been riding the Buffalo Bills with regularity since their bye week.  The Bills returned from their bye and went on the road and beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17 in a controversial finish.  I was fortunate to cash that ticket on the Bills, who are 6-0 SU since their bye week.  But now it's time to buck the Bills and back the Chiefs in the NFL Divisional Round.

The Chiefs have the rest advantage and the injury advantage.  The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 on Saturday in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They were held to four field goals as they struggled in the red zone or would have won by even more.  Now they have had the last seven days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  That's especially the case since they rested their starters in Week 18.

The Bills did not have the luxury of getting to rest their starters in Week 18.  They needed to beat the Dolphins to win the division and get the No. 2 seed.  They came back from a 14-7 halftime deficit to beat the Dolphins 21-14.  It was their 3rd consecutive dog fight after beating the Chargers 24-22 on the road and the Patriots 27-21 at home.  Then they beat the Steelers 31-17 at home last week, but their defense was on the field for the majority of the 2nd half.

That game against the Steelers was played on Monday as it was moved due to weather.  Now the Bills only have five days' rest and not much time to prepare for the Chiefs.  The Bills lost several defensive starters to injury against the Steelers to boot.  Now the Bills have 6 defensive starters questionable to play in this game.  These 6 have combined for 548 tackles, 10.5 sacks and 35 passes defended and 91 of a possible 102 starts.  The Bills would be lucky if they even have half of them available.  Not to mention, No. 2 WR Gabe Davis is hurt and may not play this week.

The Chiefs had basically a bye in Week 18 to rest their starters.  They came back fresh and ready to go and crushed the Dolphins 26-7.  Their offense worked as well as it has all season with 409 total yards on the Dolphins.  They rushed for 167 yards and Mahomes found some chemistry with his receivers.  Rashee Rice had eight receptions for 130 yards and a TD while Travis Kelce has seven receptions for 71 yards in the win.  I expect Mahomes and company to have a monster game against this banged up Buffalo defense.

Josh Allen has been a walking turnover this season and I think he will give the ball to the Chiefs one or two times that will be the difference in this game.  The Chiefs outgained the Bills 346 to 327 and 5.6 yards per play to 4.5 yards per play in that first meeting in Kansas City.  Those numbers would have been even worse if the TD from Mahomes, to Kelce, to Toney stood had Toney not been called for being offsides in a tick-tack call.  The Chiefs want their revenge, and given all their advantages coming into this one in rest and injuries, I expect them to get that revenge.

Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 SU & 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.  Mahomes is 7-0 SU in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds in his career.  The Chiefs are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog with their lone loss coming with Alex Smith at QB in 2017.  Buffalo is 13-26 ATS in its last 39 games following four or more consecutive wins.  Andy Reid is 42-22 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 as the coach of Kansas City.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday night.

15* Bucs/Lions NFC ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +7

Note: Buy to +7 (-120) or better

The Tampa Bay Bucs are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall not only just to make the playoffs, but to also upset the Eagles 32-9 in the Wild Card Round in their most complete performance of the season.  A big reason for their success is a return to health on defense, where the Bucs will have the best unit on the field Sunday when they take on the Detroit Lions.

This Tampa Bay defense shut out the Panthers and then held the Eagles to 9 points and 276 total yards last week.  They also held the Packers to 20 points, the Jaguars to 12 points, the Saints to 23 points in their three games prior and have now allowed an average of just 12.8 points per game in their last five games.  This is one of the best defenses in the entire NFL right now.

Baker Mayfield deserves Comeback Player of the Year with what he is doing right now.  He completed 64.3% of his passes for 4,044 yards with a 28-to-10 TD/INT ratio in the regular season.  He went 22-of-36 for 337 yards with 3 TD and no picks against the Eagles and didn't look injured at all.  His numbers would have been even better if Mike Evans and Cade Otton didn't drop two TD passes that were thrown perfectly.  Mayfield knows this is his opportunity and isn't about to waste it.

The Lions were fortunate to escape with a 24-23 victory over the Rams last week.  The difference was the Lions went 3-for-3 scoring TD's in the red zone while the Rams went 0-for-3 and settled for 3 FG.  The Rams dominated the box score.  They outgained the Lions 425 to 334 and 7.7 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play.  This Detroit defense cannot be trusted to get margin.  It's arguably the worst defense left in these playoffs.

The Lions have been life and death in four consecutive games now.  It stemmed back to their 30-24 win at Minnesota in which they benefited from four Vikings turnovers.  Then they lost 20-19 on the road in Dallas after a failed 2-point conversion in the final seconds.  Instead of resting their starters in a meaningless Week 18 game, the Lions went balls to the ball in a 30-20 home win over the Vikings.  They allowed 448 total yards to the Vikings and their 3rd-string QB.  And last week they needed a late stop to beat the Rams and their offense got a 1D to run out the clock.  I question how much the Lions have left in the tank now.

Tampa Bay is a pass-happy team and that makes this a great matchup for them because the Lions' strength defensively is stopping the run.  The Lions rely a lot on running the football, and the Bucs are great at stopping the run allowing just 92 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  This is a great matchup for the Bucs on both sides of the football.

Baker Mayfield is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-0 ATS in his last four.  The Bucs are 8-1 ATS in all road games this season and have played their best football away from home.  That includes their 34-20 win at Green Bay against a Packers team that was playing great football and is still playing great.  The Bucs dominated that game outgaining the Packers 452 to 321 for the game.  Green Bay went into Detroit on Thanksgiving and won 29-22.

Todd Bowles is 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where his team scored 14 points or less as the coach of Tampa Bay.  He will make the proper defensive adjustments in the rematch from a 20-6 home loss to the Lions early in the season.  And this Tampa Bay offense has improved by leaps and bounds since that defeat, plus their defense is a lot healthier now.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on OVER 50

The San Francisco 49ers are scoring 28.9 points per game this season.  They will be able to name their number on this Green Back Packers defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.  The Packers allowed 34 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Panthers and 32 to the Cowboys down the stretch.  

Green Bay's defense was on the field for 85 snaps against the Cowboys and gave up 510 yards on Sunday.  Now they are gassed and on a short week having to play on Saturday this week.  They lost CB Jaire Alexander and LB Kinglsey Enagbare to injury in that game and both are unlikely to play this week.  Fellow starters in DE Kenny Clark, RB Rashan Gary, FS Darnell Savage and SS Jonathan Owens are also banged up and questionable.

The 49ers are going to score 34-plus points in this one to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.  But I think the Packers can keep pace with how well Jordan Love is playing.  Love has a 21-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last nine games and is playing as well as any QB in the NFL.  He has all of his weapons healthy and that has made a big difference.  He went 16-of-21 for 272 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys.

The Packers have now scored at least 20 points in eight of their last nine games overall and are averaging 28.0 points per game during this stretch.  They will get 20-plus in this one.  The lone exception was 17 in poor weather against the Bears, but they had 432 total yards on a very good Chicago defense and should have scored more.  They will find success throwing the ball against the 49ers, whose weakness is in their secondary defensively.  The 49ers haven't faced many offenses as good as Green Bay's this season.

Green Bay is 8-2 OVER in road games this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Packers seven road games against NFC opponents this season.  Green Bay is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games off an upset win as an underdog.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Texans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +9

The Houston Texans have been in must-win mode for three consecutive weeks now.  They got CJ Stroud back against the Titans in Week 17 and beat them 26-3 at home.  They went on to beat Indianapolis 23-19 on the road with the division title on the line.  And last week they crushed the Cleveland Browns 45-14 at home.

Stroud is technically a rookie, but he's already a Top 10 QB in this league.  Stroud completed 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards with a 23-to-5 TD/INT ratio in the regular season.  He went 16-of-21 for 274 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against Cleveland, who had the best defensive numbers in the NFL.  He also missed a wide open 50-plus yard TD and had another 30-plus yard completion dropped by his TE in that game, or those already gaudy numbers would have been even better.

But while Stroud gets all the headlines on this Houston team, it's the defense that we should really be excited about and the unit that gives them a chance to keep their Super Bowl hopes alive.  The Texans have been banged up on defense all season, but they are currently about as healthy as they have been all year.  They held the Titans to 3 points, the Colts to 19 points and the previously potent Browns to 14 points in their last three games.

The strength of this Houston defense is stopping the run, which makes this a good matchup for them since the Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL.  The Texans only allow 94 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The weakness of this Baltimore defense is stopping the run as they give up 109 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  That's significant since the forecast is calling for 15-20 MPH winds in Baltimore.  The Texans will be able to run the ball with Devin Singletary to take some pressure off of Stroud, who will make the plays when he needs to just as he has all season.

Not all bye weeks are created equal.  Not only did the Ravens rest most their starters in Week 18, but then they got a bye week too.  They had built up a ton of momentum with six consecutive wins including their upset victory over the 49ers.  Now resting in Week 18 and having their bye week kills all their momentum.  These starters have had the last couple weeks off and rust may be a factor.  They also have all the pressure on them with their previous failures in the playoffs as Lamar Jackson is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in his playoff career. The Texans are the team with the positive momentum and no pressure as they are playing on house money at this point.  

The Ravens got bad injury news leading into this game with top CB Marlon Humphrey and Jackson's favorite target in TE Mark Andrews both not expected to play in this game.  Jackson is 1-8 ATS as a starting QB as a favorite of -7.5 or higher in his career.  Houston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  I think Baltimore's misleading 25-9 win over Houston in Week 1 is inflating this line.  Houston actually outgained Baltimore in that game and held the Ravens to 265 total yards, and it was Stroud's first career start.  The Texans have improved by leaps and bounds since then and will prove it this weekend.  Bet the Texans Saturday.

20* Rams/Lions NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3.5

The Los Angeles Rams are the most dangerous team in the NFC playoffs that everyone is overlooking.  The Rams got all of their key weapons in Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams healthy for the second half of the season and were dominant once that was the case.  They are actually about the healthiest team in the NFL going into the playoffs, plus they were able to rest starters in Week 18 to be even more fresh and healthy for the wild card round.

The Rams are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to the Baltimore Ravens 37-31 (OT).  They went toe-to-toe with the team that many feel like is the favorite to win the Super Bowl.  All the Ravens did after needing a punt return TD in OT to beat the Rams at home is go on to beat the Jaguars 23-7, the 49ers 38-19 and the Dolphins 56-19 in their next three games.  That loss to the Ravens was mighty impressive, and keep in mind the Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 at home earlier this season.

The Rams are humming on offense.  They have scored 26 or more points in each of the last six games started by Stafford.  Now he gets to face his former team and will light up a terrible Detroit defense that has allowed 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.  I would argue the Rams have the better offense and better defense going into the playoffs.

Dan Campbell made the mistake of trying too hard to win in Week 18 even though he needed the Cowboys to lose to the Commanders to improve their seeding.  What a mistake it turned out to be as star TE Sam LaPorta was lost to a knee injury in a meaningless win over the Vikings.  LaPorta has 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 TD this season.  The Lions also lost WR/PR Kalif Raymond to injury in the win.  He has 35 receptions for 489 yards and is their main punt returner.  The Lions won't be as fresh as the Rams either after trying hard in Week 18 and needing to go to the wire with the Vikings after going to the wire with the Cowboys the previous week.

Plays against home teams (Detroit) - with a very good offense that averages 385 or more yards per game, after allowing an average of 400 or more yards per game in their last three games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The back door will always be open if we need it against this Detroit defense.  But I don't think we will.  

The Rams are the better team on both sides and catching 3.5 points to boot.  Home field just isn't worth this much for the Lions, either.  And Sean McVay knows Jared Goff's tendencies more than anyone and will come up with the proper game plan to exploit them.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* Packers/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +7.5

Jordan Love has played like one of the best QB's in the game down the stretch to get his team into the playoffs.  The Packers have won three consecutive games to close out the season and have all the momentum.  Love has been the biggest reason why with a ridiculous 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio over his final eight games of the season.

The most remarkable part about that is that Love has had different weapons miss time due to injury down the stretch.  But now the Packers are as healthy as they have been from a skill position perspective basically since the beginning of the season.  There's a chance they get Christian Watson back from a hamstring injury as he and Romeo Doubs are the only questionable weapons.

Love will be able to dice up a Dallas defense that is grossly overrated.  The Cowboys haven't been able to stop some of the better offenses they have faced this season.  They gave up 420 yards to the Lions, 375 to the Dolphins, 31 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Seahawks down the stretch.  They also allowed 42 points to the 49ers earlier this season.

Dallas will get its points too, but the Packers are trending upward defensively right now since they have gotten healthy.  Key players like LB De'Vondre Campbell, LB Quay Walker and CB Jaire Alexander have all missed time this season.  But all three are healthy right now and the Packers are fully healthy on defense and showing what they are capable of.  They held the Vikings to 10 points and the Bears to 9 points in their final two games to compliment Love's brilliance on offense.

The Cowboys have all the pressure on them.  They have heard for years how they just cannot win the big game, and they really haven't.  If they do find a way to win this game, it won't be by more than one score.  The Packers have the goods to take the Cowboys to the wire just like the Lions and Seahawks did in recent games at Dallas with the Lions losing by 1 and the Seahawks by 6.  Detroit accumulated 420 total yards on Dallas and Seattle had 35 points and 406 yards.

Green Bay is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in four consecutive games.  The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a win by 28 points or more.  Matt LaFleur is 20-10 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Green Bay.  Mike McCarthy is 6-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record as the coach of Dallas.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Cowboys OVER 49.5

The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys are two dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have great quarterbacks and great offenses but suspect defenses.  The books failed to set this total high enough as these teams will easily combine for 50-plus points in this game to cash this OVER 49.5 ticket.

The Cowboys are averaging 37.4 points per game at home this season.  The Packers have scored at least 20 points in seven of their final eight games to close out the season.  The lone game they didn't they scored 17 against the Bears in the finale and deserved better, but they kneeled in scoring position at the end and had 432 total yards against a very good Chicago defense.  Love has an 18-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his last eight games and is playing as well as any QB in the league down the stretch.

But the Packers have a suspect defense that allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games before holding both the Vikings and Bears below that number to close the season.  But the Vikings started a 4th-string QB and the Bears aren't very good offensively.  They gave up 30 points to the lowly Panthers and 34 to the Bucs the two games prior.  Dallas will get its points in this one.

The Cowboys gave up 420 yards to the Lions, 375 to the Dolphins, 31 points to the Bills and 35 points to the Seahawks down the stretch.  The Packers can have the same kind of success because they are on the same level as those offenses with the way they have been playing of late.  There's a chance Jordan Love has all of his weapons back this week if Christian Watson returns from a hamstring injury, but he has proven he can move the football and score points no matter who is out there.

It will be perfect conditions inside the dome in Arlington for a shootout.  The OVER is 12-1 in the last 13 meetings in Dallas with nine of those seeing 50 or more combined points.  Each of the last four meetings between the Cowboys and Packers have seen 58 or more combined points.  Green Bay is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. NFC opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams coming into the playoffs.  It helped that they rested their starters in Week 18 to essentially get a bye week.  And we all know how good Andy Reid is coming off a bye week.  The Chiefs will respond in a big way, and we will see them put their best foot forward in the Wild Card Round after an up and down season to this point after winning the Super Bow last year.  The Super Bowl hangover was part of it, but they have just been biding their time waiting for the postseason.

The Miami Dolphins are the most injury-ravaged team in the playoffs aside from perhaps the Steelers.  RB Raheem Mostert, RB De'Von Achane, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Tyreek Hill, LT Terron Armstead and C Liam Eichenberg are all battling injuries on offense, and they were already without starting C Connor Williams.  The defense lost its two best pass rushers in Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips.  Now their two backup LB's in Andrew Van Ginkel and Jerome Baker suffered season-ending injuries against the Bills in Week 18.  Not to mention, all four starters in the secondary are questionable.  What a mess.

These injuries have played a part in their meltdown to close out the regular season losing by a combined 77-33 to Baltimore and Buffalo.  They gave up 491 total yards to the Ravens and 473 total yards to the Bills.  Now this previously stagnant Chiefs offense is in line for one of its best performances of the season against this soft Miami defense.

Speaking of soft, the Dolphins won't enjoy the weather in Kansas City Saturday night.  It will be single-digit temperatures with negative wind chills and 15-20 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH.  I love fading warm weather teams in cold weather games, especially in the playoffs.  Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 SU in his career in games with freezing temperatures or below.  He has never played in conditions as cold as they will be in Kansas City Saturday night.

The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 400 or more yards per game in their last three games coming in.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60-75%.  Miami is 0-9 SU & 2-7 ATS since 2017 in cold weather games with temps below 40 degrees.  None of them were as cold as it will be Saturday night.

Miami went to the wire with Buffalo on Sunday Night Football last week while playing all their starters and trying to win the division.  That effort will have taken a lot out of them, and the schedule makers did them no favors making them play on Saturday on a short week.  The injuries, the tough scheduling spot and the cold weather are going to have the Dolphins falling flat on their faces for a 3rd consecutive week.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

25* AFC Wild Card TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Browns/Texans OVER 43

The Cleveland Browns are a dead nuts OVER team with Joe Flacco.  They are a dead nuts OVER team on the road as well.  This total of 43 is too short when you factor in Flacco, Cleveland being on the road and the healthy return of CJ Stroud for Houston.

The Browns are 8-0 OVER on the road this season.  A big reason for that is their defense has been very leaky on the highway.  The Browns allow 29.6 points per game on the road this season, and their road games are averaging 54.0 combined points per game.

The Browns have become very pass-happy with Flacco at QB.  They have attempted 44 or more passes in four of his five starts this season.  The only exception was in the 37-20 win over the Jets in which they were just trying to protect the lead late and ran it more.  They have scored 31 or more points in three of Flacco's last four starts with the lone exception being against a very good Chicago defense at home in tough whether conditions when they only scored 20.

The Texans are humming on offense again with Stroud back healthy.  They scored 26 points against the Titans two weeks ago and 23 against the Colts last week to clinch the AFC South title.  I have no doubt the Texans are going to unleash him against the Browns and use the entire playbook to try and pull off the upset.  This game will be played mostly through the air due to both teams being good against the run, knowing that the weakness of both defenses are more against the pass.

Cleveland played Houston on the road earlier this season on December 24th and 2on 36-22 for 58 combined points.  And that was with Case Keenum at QB for the Texans and Davis Mills replacing him.  The Browns had 364 passing yards in that game and did whatever they wanted to through the air.  They will be able to deploy that same game plan, but this time they will get more resistance from Houston's offense with Stroud under center.  Plus, there's a decent chance Stroud gets a pair of weapons back in WR Noah Brown and WR Robert Woods from injury that they didn't have against Indianapolis.  This game has shootout written all over it inside the dome in perfect conditions in Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Eagles/Giants NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York +5

The New York Giants want revenge from a 33-25 loss in Philadelphia two weeks ago.  The main reason that game was close is because the Giants replaced an ineffective Tommy DeVito with Tyrod Taylor at halftime.  Taylor threw for 133 yards and a score with a pick while also rushing for 21 yards on two carries as the Giants outscored the Eagles 22-13 with him in the lineup.

Taylor nearly led the Giants to an upset victory over the Los Angeles Rams last week.  They failed on a 2-point conversion going for the win in a 26-25 loss, and they also missed a 54-yard FG that would have won it.  Taylor went 27-of-41 passing for 319 yards with one touchdown and one pick, while also rushing for 40 yards on six carries.  He is clearly the best QB on the roster and the team believes in him.

The Philadelphia Eagles just lost 35-31 last week at home to the Arizona Cardinals.  A win would have put them in control of their own fate in the NFC East.  Now they need the Cowboys to lose to the Commanders as 13-point favorites this week to have a chance.  Deep down they know the Cowboys aren't losing, and when they see Dallas up big at halftime don't be surprised if the Eagles pull their starters in this one.  They need to get healthy for next week.

The Eagles are a very, banged up team.  They are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The problem is with their defense, which has allowed 25 points or more in five of their last six games and an average of 31.5 points per game during this stretch.  They just gave up 35 points and 449 yards to the Cardinals at home last week and were outgained by 174 yards by Arizona.  I think it's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they blew a 21-6 lead.

The Giants have no quit in them.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and have been an undervalued commodity here down the stretch because of it.  I think Taylor and company can build off of what they did in the 2H against the Eagles two weeks ago and what they were able to do against the Rams last week.  They are pretty healthy right now, while the Eagles could be without WR Davonte Smith among others.

The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Philadelphia is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher.  The Giants are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Seahawks/Cardinals OVER 47.5

The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks have two of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.  The Cardinals allow 27.1 points per game and 357.5 yards per game including 31.0 points per game and 374.3 yards per game at home.  The Seahawks allow 365.4 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play on the season, and they are coming off a really poor performance against the Steelers.

Indeed, the Seahawks allowed 30 points and 468 total yards to the Steelers last week.  They gave up 202 rushing yards and have now allowed 136 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games.  That's bad news for their defense going up against an Arizona offense that rushed for 234 yards against the 49ers and 221 yards on the Eagles in two of their last three games.

Arizona just lit up Philadelphia's defense for 35 points and 449 total yards last week.  They will do what they want against this soft Seattle defense.  Seattle's offense put up 23 points and 369 yards on the Steelers last week.  They will be able to do whatever they want for the most part against this Arizona defense as well.  Arizona has allowed 406 or more yards in four of their last six games.

Arizona is a perfect 7-0 OVER at home this season.  Six of those seven games have seen 48 or more combined points.  Arizona home games are seeing an average of 55.0 combined points per game.  The conditions are perfect inside their dome which is a big reason for this.  So this total of 47.5 has been set too low for this matchup between two capable offenses and two dreadful defenses indoors.  

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in Arizona with 52, 68 and 71 combined points in those three.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona Cardinals +3

The Arizona Cardinals likely put an end to Philadelphia's chances of winning the NFC East last week.  Now they have their sights set on their division rivals in the Seattle Seahawks.  They have a chance to end their season with an upset win this week.  Eliminated teams facing must-win teams are 100-64-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the season since 1990.

I think the wrong team is favored here.  Arizona beat Philadelphia 35-31 last week and should have won by more.  They gained 449 yards on the Eagles and held them to just 275 yards, outgaining them by 174 yards.  They also outgained the 49ers three weeks ago, and those are two of the best teams in the NFL.

The Seattle Seahawks are a mess.  They are 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall with both wins coming on last-second scores by 3 over the Eagles at home and by 3 over the Titans on the road.  They should not be laying 3 on the road to the Cardinals today.  The Seahawks gave up 30 points and 468 total yards to the Steelers last week.  Their defense is absolutely broken, and now they must try and defend this Arizona high-octane attack.

The Seahawks are without two starters on the offensive line in T Abraham Lucas and G Phil Haynes. T Jason Peters is questionable.  Defensively, they will be without DE Mario Edwards Jr., plus both NT Jarran Reed and LB Jordyn Brooks are questionable.  The Seahawks allowed 202 rushing yards to the Steelers last week and have now allowed 136 or more rushing yards in six consecutive games.  That's bad news going up against James Connor and the Cardinals, who rushed for 221 yards on the Eagles and 234 yards on the 49ers.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following a non-conference game.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

20* Texans/Colts AFC South No-Brainer on OVER 47

The Indianapolis Colts are getting healthy are the right time on offense.  They just got RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman back from injury, and backup RB Zack Moss should return this week as well.  All three starting offensive linemen that were questionable earlier this week all got in practices on Thursday as well and should all play.

The Houston Texans just got QB CJ Stroud back from injury last week in time to beat the Titans 26-3.  Stroud makes all the difference for this offense as they were terrible without him.  Stroud went 30-of 47 passing for 337 yards in the first meeting with the Colts, who have a suspect secondary that he can take advantage of in this one.

The weakness of the Texans is their banged-up secondary as well, and you can't run on them and the Colts know it.  They will come up with a pass-happy game plan for this one which will lead to more scoring and keep the clock stopped more often.  Gardner Minshew replaced an injury Anthony Richardson in their 31-20 win at Houston earlier this season.  He went 19-of-23 passing for 171 yards and a touchdown in relief and has held onto the job ever since.

Which ever team is trailing is fully capable of coming back due to their passing attacks.  And the Colts run one of the fastest tempos in the NFL.  The OVER is 7-1 in Indianapolis home games this season as they are scoring 26.5 points per game and averaging 372.5 yards per game at home, while allowing 25.8 points per game and 358.5 yards per game at home.  The Colts and their opponents are combining to average 52.3 points per game at home this season.

Indianapolis is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  It will be perfect conditions inside the dome for a shootout Saturday night, and neither team is going to give up if they are trailing with everything at stake here.  I think we see a shootout between two of the most underrated offenses in the NFL in a back and forth affair.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday night.

20* Packers/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 44

The Green Bay Packers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall with 46 or more combined points in all five games.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Packers, especially matched up with another team that is playing to OVERS recently.  Plus, this game will be indoors in perfect conditions Sunday night in Minnesota.

Jordan Love has made the leap in the 2nd half of the season and is playing much better.  He has led the Packers to 19 or more points in eight consecutive games, including 27 or more three times in his last four games.  They put up 33 on a very good Carolina defense on the road last week.

But the Packers cannot stop anyone.  They have allowed 19 or more points in seven consecutive games.  That includes 30 to the Panthers, 34 to the Bucs and 24 to the Giants the last three weeks.  That's really poor when you consider those are three of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Packers won't have top CB Jaire Alexander to cover Justin Jefferson as he was suspended for one game for conduct detrimental to the team.

The Vikings will have the element of surprise this week going with rookie QB Jaren Hall.  It always seems to give the offense a spark in that first game with a new starter that nobody has film on.  While TE TJ Hockensen was lost for the season, WR Jordan Addison returned to practice this week.  Hall should have Addison to go along with one of the best receivers in the game in Justin Jefferson, plus the two-headed monster of Chandler and Mattison in the backfield.

Love has torched the blitz this season and will torch Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme as well.  The Vikings have really regressed defensively in recent weeks.  They allowed 27 points and 378 total yards to the Bengals two weeks ago and 30 points and 389 total yards to the Lions last week.

Green Bay is 22-4 OVER in its last 26 road games after allowing 25 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Packers are 6-0 OVER in their last six games following a win.  Minnesota is 6-0 OVER in its last six December home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Eagles OVER 47.5

Two leaky defenses square off against two mobile quarterbacks who can beat you with their arm and their leges.  This has shootout written all over it as the Arizona Cardinals visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday.

The Eagles got their offense back on track last week with 33 points and 465 total yards against the Giants.  Now they face an Arizona defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, allowing 26.9 points per game, 363 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  The Cardinals are severely banged up on defense to boot.

Arizona has been much better offensively with Kyler Murray at QB and a healthy James Connor at RB.  They put up 24 points and 150 rushing yards on the Steelers three games ago and 29 points and 234 rushing yards on the 49ers two weeks ago.  They will be able to run on this Philadelphia defense, which has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in six consecutive games.

This is also a very tired, banged up Philadelphia defense.  They have allowed 20 or more points in five consecutive games, including 34 points and 510 yards to the Bills, 42 points and 456 yards to the 49ers, 33 points and 394 yards to the Cowboys and 25 points to the lowly Giants last week.  The Cardinals will get their points as well.  I expect Philly to get to 31 and Arizona to get to at least 20 in this one.

The OVER is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 home games in the 2nd half of the season.  Arizona is 14-5 OVER in its last 19 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% completions or higher.  The forecast looks good with temps in the 40's and only 10 MPH winds expected in Philadelphia.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans -3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Houston Texans this week.  They lost CJ Stroud three weeks ago to a concussion against the Jets.  They haven't been the same team since.  They are coming off a 36-22 home loss to the Browns, and backup QB Case Keenum was terrible in that game.  He wasn't very good in their OT win over the Titans the week prior as well as he threw a Pick 6.

But now the Texans are expected to get back Stroud this week.  They should get back to being the same dominant, explosive offensive team they were before they lost him.  And some time on the sidelines can really do a rookie good to see the game from a different perspective.  I expect him to come back fresh and ready to go.

Now the Titans won't have the luxury of facing the Texans without Stroud, who they still lost to two weeks ago at home.  The Texans were only 3-point road dogs in that game and now 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  That adjustment isn't big enough for shifting home fields, plus replacing Keenum with Stroud.  The Texans should be much closer to a touchdown favorite in this one.

Houston has everything to play for as it is tied for 1st place in the AFC South with the Jaguars and Colts.  The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention.  The Titans are also a very tired team playing five consecutive one score games, including the last four decided by 3 points or fewer.  But that won't be the case in this one.  I think the Titans are out of gas here, and they have one of the worst injury reports in the entire NFL, especially defensively.

The Titans have eight defenders either on IR or out for this one.  They have four more listed as questionable.  This is a very poor Tennessee defense, especially on the road.  The Titans are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this season, allowing 23.9 points per game, 362.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Their offense has also been suspect on the road with 14.3 points per game, 268.4 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

The Texans outgained the Titans 340 to 204 in that first meeting with Keenum.  They held the Titans to 66 rushing yards on 30 attempts.  The key to stopping the Titans is stopping their running game, and few teams are better equipped at stopping the run than the Texans.  They allow just 91 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season.  They have held six of their last eight opponents to 81 rushing yards or fewer.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Titans/Texans OVER 42.5

The Houston Texans get CJ Stroud back from a concussion after missing the last two games.  They should get back to being the same dominant, explosive offensive team they were before they lost him.  And some time on the sidelines can really do a rookie good to see the game from a different perspective.  I expect him to come back fresh and ready to go.

The Titans have eight defenders either on IR or out for this one.  They have four more listed as questionable.  This is a very poor Tennessee defense, especially on the road.  The Titans are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in road games this season, allowing 23.9 points per game, 362.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.

The Titans are expected to get Will Levis back at QB this week.  He is more of an 'OVER' QB than Ryan Tannehill, who prefers to dink and dunk.  Levis is not afraid to take deep shots, and he will make more mistakes than Tannehill will, which is good for OVERS.  You cannot run on this Houston defense, so the Titans are going to have to go with a pass-happy approach.  I also expect them to be trailing in this one like they were against Miami a few weeks ago and had to throw it a ton in a game that saw 55 combined points.

The Texans also have their fair share of injuries on defense including Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins, who all missed practice on Thursday.  They have seven starters questionable for this one.  The Texans were lit up for 36 points and 418 total yards by the Browns last week.  The Titans will have their opportunities to score on this defense as well, especially through the air.

This total is too low due to these teams combining for just 35 points in their first meeting in Tennessee a few weeks ago.  But now Stroud replaces Keenum and there's value in the OVER 42.5 here.  They also go from playing an outdoor game on grass in the elements in Tennessee to perfect conditions inside the dome here in Houston.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Rams/Giants NFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 42

The Rams are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 48 or more combined points in all five games.  It would be 5-0 if not for a missed extra point by the Commanders.  They combined for 52 points with the Saints, 48 with the Commanders, 66 with the Ravens, 55 with the Browns and 51 with the Cardinals.  This total of 42 is very low for a game involving the Rams right now.

The Rams have been dynamic on offense with Stafford, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all healthy at the same time.  That has been the case for them during this offensive resurgence.  They are averaging 32.4 points per game and 433.8 yards per game in their last five games overall as the most dynamic offense in the NFL during this stretch.

Now they face a New York Giants defense that just allowed 33 points and 465 total yards to the Eagles last week.  The Giants allow 134 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, so Williams is in line for another big game on the ground.  That will open things up for Stafford in play-action.

I like the fact that the Giants are going with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback this week.  He is probably their best option.  Taylor led the Giants to 22 second-half points against the Eagles last week after they were held to just 3 points in the first half with Tommy DeVito.  Taylor went 7-of-16 passing for 133 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also rushing for 21 yards on his two attempts.  The Giants have all of their top playmakers healthy right now including RB Barkley and TE Waller.

The OVER is 4-2 in Giants last six games overall with 46 or more combined points in four of those six games.  The only two exceptions were against the Patriots in bad weather and up against a bad New England offense.  They also went under the total against the Saints, who also have one of the league's least-explosive offenses.  

The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 40's, sunny skies and single-digit winds at MetLife Stadium in New York.  The Rams allow 24.1 points per game on the road this season.  I'm expecting the Rams to get 27-plus in this one and the Giants to get to at least 20.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Rams -4.5

The Los Angeles Rams are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now since getting Stafford, Williams, Kupp and Nacua all healthy.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, which is a big reason for their resurgence.  And now they get extra time to rest and prepare for this game against the Giants after beating the Saints last Thursday.

The Rams are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Ravens in overtime.  The Rams are averaging 32.4 points per game and 433.8 yards per game in their last five games overall and have been one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL during this stretch.

Now they face a New York Giants defense that just allowed 33 points and 465 total yards to the Eagles last week.  The Giants allow 134 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, so Williams is in line for another big game on the ground.  That will open things up for Stafford in play-action.  The Giants could be without two starting defensive linemen in A'Shawn Robinson and Dexter Lawrence this week to make matters worse for them.  Their injury list is as long as any in the NFL right now.

Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade over Tommy DeVito for the Giants at quarterback.  However, it's not a big enough upgrade to warrant this line getting bet down from 6.5 to 4.5 when it was announced Taylor would start.  The Rams have extra time to prepare for Taylor's skill set, so he won't be catching anyone off guard like he did against the Eagles in the 2H last week.  I just don't think the Giants have the firepower to keep up with the Rams in this one, and I have the Rams winning by a TD or more as a result.  The Giants average 14.3 points per game and 263.7 yards per game on the season, including 10.2 points per game and 259.3 yards per game at home.

The Rams know that if they win this game they likely lock up a playoff spot and then can rest their starters next week against the 49ers.  That's why they won't be looking ahead to that game against San Francisco, especially since they have extra time to prepare after having last Thursday off.  Sean McVay's teams get better as the season progresses, which is evident in the fact that the Rams are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 December games.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Commanders OVER 48

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Sunday when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Washington Commanders.  The 49ers have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL but currently a leaky defense.  The Commanders have the single worst defense in the NFL currently but a capable offense.

The 49ers have scored 27 or more points in six of their last seven games overall.  The lone exception was the 19 against the Ravens, but they still managed 429 total yards despite scoring just 19 points due to committing five turnovers that took a bunch of points off the board.  The 49ers have been sub par defensively of late, allowing 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals two weeks ago and 33 points and 343 yards to the Ravens last week.

The Commanders have allowed at least 28 points in six consecutive games now.  They just gave up 30 points to the lowly Jets lsat week.  They also allowed 31 to the Giants during this stretch, so everyone is scoring on them.  But the Commanders are going to Jacoby Brissett at QB, and he has led them on multiple TD drives in the 2H of two consecutive games replacing Sam Howell.  The Commanders keep coming with him under center and will keep coming even if they fall way behind the 49ers.

The 49ers will get 35 points in this one, so we only need 14 from the Commanders to cash this OVER ticket, and I don't see that being a problem.  The 49ers and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in three of their last four games.  The Commanders and their opponents have combined for at least 48 points in six consecutive games.  They are 5-1 OVER in those six games and if not for a missed XP on their final score against the Rams would be 6-0.  

The forecast looks good for a shootout in this one with temps in the 50's, no precipitation and only 7 MPH winds in Washington.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Cowboys OVER 52

The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions are both dead nuts OVER teams, especially when the games are played indoors.  The Cowboys are averaging 39.9 points per game at home this season while the Lions are averaging 31.8 points per game in dome games, which includes their seven home games and road games at the Chargers, Saints and Vikings.  That's an average of over 70 combined points per game in indoor games for their offenses.  This total of 52 is too low.

Dallas will get its offense back on track this week after having to go outdoors and play two very good defenses in the Bills and Dolphins the last two weeks.  Both of those outdoor games went under the total, which has provided us some line value to back the OVER in this one.  Now they face a bad Lions defense that allows 25.3 points per game, 351.1 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.

The OVER is 6-1 in Detroit's last seven games overall.  Detroit and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in six of those seven games, including 54 or more five times.  That includes games against poor offensive teams in the Bears, Saints, Broncos and Vikings.  Now they get to face another great offense that can match them, and what is an overrated Dallas defense that has been exposed in recent weeks.

Detroit is 8-2 OVER in turf games this season.  Dallas is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 home games after the first month of the season.  The Lions are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games following a win.  Both offenses have all of their top playmakers on offense healthy, while both defenses are missing key players to injury.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Jets/Browns AFC No-Brainer on OVER 33.5

The Cleveland Browns have been a dead nuts OVER team since getting Joe Flacco.  Their pass rate has gone through the roof with 44 or more pass attempts in all four games he has started.  The Browns and their opponents have combined for 58, 37, 58, 55 and 41 points in their last five games overall.  As you can see, all five games would have gone over this short 33.5-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.

The New York Jets and their opponents have combined for at least 36 points in four of their last six games overall.  It doesn't take much for an NFL game to top 33.5 combined points, especially with 34 being a very key number with 17-17, 20-14, 21-13 and 24-10 being four common scores that would get us to the OVER.

The Jets are also throwing the ball a ton right now with 36 or more attempts in five consecutive games.  Trevor Siemian threw it 49 times against the Commanders last week in leading the Jets to 30 points.  Both teams are pretty much fully healthy on offense from a playmakers perspective, which is something I want when backing an OVER.

Kevin Stefanski is 8-1 OVER in home games after gaining 400 or more yards last game as the coach of Cleveland.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/49ers OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers have been an offensive juggernaut when healthy this season.  That basically means when they have had Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel and CMC on the field at the same time.  They got all three back healthy coming out of their bye week and have gone 6-0 since, scoring at least 27 points in every win while averaging 34.5 points per game in those six games.

The 49ers will get their points against a Baltimore defense that benefited from the Jaguars beating themselves offensively last week.  They drove inside the Baltimore 40 a handful of times and only had 7 points to show for it.  The 49ers will capitalize on their opportunities as they are one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL.  They will capitalize similar to the Rams, who put up 31 points and 449 yards on the Ravens the week prior in a 31-37 (OT) defeat.  This one will be a similar shootout.

The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in six of their last eight games overall.  They have their best offense of the Lamar Jackson era, averaging 27.4 points per game, 374.1 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They haven't been as good as the 49ers, who average 30.4 points per game, 402.6 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play, but they are still one of the top offenses in the NFL.

The 49ers just allowed 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals last week.  A big reason for their struggles defensively last week were injuries as they were missing LB Oren Burks, DT Javon Hargrave and DT Arik Armstead.  CB Deomodore Lenoir also suffered an injury in that game.  Burks, Hargrave and Armstead all missed practice again Thursday after sitting out last week, a bad sign for their availability Monday.  Lenoir did return to practice.

The 49ers struggle to defend mobile quarterbacks which is why Kyler Murray and the Cardinals had so much success against them last week.  They rushed for 234 yards on the 49ers.  Now the 49ers must face Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore offense that averages 164 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  But the 49ers should have success on the ground as well to open things up for Brock Purdy.  The Ravens have allowed at least 128 rushing yards in five of their last nine games overall.

I expect the 49ers to 30-plus in this one and the Ravens to get 20-plus.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs ML -128

I was leaning toward the Bucs all week but I had to make sure that QB Trevor Lawrence was going to be out for the Jaguars.  As soon as I got that information I pulled the trigger on the Bucs.  Lawrence missed practice again Thursday and sources say he is unlikely to play due to a concussion and an ankle injury.

The Jaguars are in real trouble without him as they have one of the worst backup QB's in the NFL in CJ Bethard, which is saying something.  Bethard has a very hard time reading a defense and loves to just check it down or take off and run, and he's not very fast or athletic.  The Jaguars are going to be in a world of hurt offensively in this one, especially without WR Christian Kirk and WR Zay Jones as well.

The Jaguars are already in a world of hurt defensively, allowing 29.3 points per game and 425.3 yards per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Two of those games came against backup QB's in Joe Flacco and Jake Browning and the other was against the Ravens.  Now they must face Baker Mayfield and a Tampa Bay offense that is absolutely humming right now.

The Bucs are 3-0 in their last three games overall and gaining confidence with each win.  They are trying to win this game and grab a stranglehold on this division.  Mayfield is playing the best football of his career, putting up 29 points on the Falcons two weeks ago and 34 points on the Packers last week.  He had a perfect passer rating against the Packers, going 22-of-28 passing for 381 yards with 4 TD and zero INT while averaging 13.6 per attempt.

The Bucs are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  Their entire starting 11 on offense is healthy, and they have been missing some key players on defense that they are likely to get back this week.  NT Vita Vea, DT William Gholston, CB Carlton Davis III, S Ryan Neal, CB Jamel Dean, LB Lavonte David and LB Devin White have all missed time recently.  Amazingly, all seven are expected to play this week.  The stock on the Bucs is very much on the rise due to this return to health defensively.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Texans OVER 41.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 41.5 Sunday night with the anticipation it would move higher once CJ Stroud was announced in.  Now that he's not playing it has only been adjusted down to 40 as of this writing.  I love the OVER 40 even with Case Keenum starting in his place.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The OVER is 6-0 on all Cleveland road games as a result.

The Browns have also been much better offensively on the road than they have been at home.  They are scoring 24.2 points per game on the road.  Now they get to go play indoors with perfect scoring conditions in Houston.  This total of 40 is way too low for a road game involving the Browns.

Cleveland has gone to a pass-happy scheme since signing Joe Flacco.  They attempted 45 passes against the Bears, 45 against the Jaguars and 44 against the Rams.  All these pass attempts stop the clock more often and are beneficial to OVERS.  They are trying to get the ball out of Flacco's hand quick to help make up for injuries on the offensive line.  And Flacco has shown he's still one of the best deep ball throwers in the game.

This total has been adjusted down too much off the news that CJ Stroud is unlikely to play for a second straight week.  Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage to take some of the pressure off Keenum last week, and he has emerged as a serious weapon in this offense.

Both Flacco and Keenum are prone to turnovers as Flacco has already thrown five interceptions in his three starts, while Keenum threw that terrible Pick 6 last week.  These turnovers could certainly help set up some easy scoring opportunities for both of these offenses.  Plus, these offenses will be up against two injury-ravaged defenses, and this is as much a play against these defenses as anything.

The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have five players on IR and 5 defensive starters currently questionable.  The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  They average 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.  The Browns have all of their top skill players fully healthy for this one, and they are forming chemistry with Flacco.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -1

I love the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They will be 'all in' to get this win and stay alive in the tight NFC South race.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons, who are 4-10 ATS this season and one of the worst covering teams in the NFL.  But they easily could be a lot better as they have six losses by one score this season, including five by 5 points or fewer.

Arthur Smith said QB Taylor Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers last week.  Now we 'buy low' on the Falcons off that defeat.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Colts, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been fortunate in close games winning three of their last four by one score.  Their luck runs out this week, and their defense will get exposed.  The Falcons have the better defense allowing 19.9 points per game, 311.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Colts allow 24.5 points per game, 347.5 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

A big reason money is pouring in on the Falcons this week is due to the great news they got Thursday on their injury report.  LT Jake Matthews, C Drew Dalman, G Chris Lindstrom and T Kaleb McGary all returned to practice Thursday and they should have all five starters healthy for this one, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.  Defensively, DE Calais Campbell and NT David Onyemata both returned to practice Thursday as well.  The Falcons could be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season, which is what they need for this stretch run.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans ML -135

Note: Merry Christmas! Those of you who bought this play later in the week get a much better line on the Texans at +3/+2.5 than I did when I hit the opener on Sunday night. I apologize to those who bet it early with me and got a worse line than current, which rarely happens. I expected CJ Stroud to return from a concussion, but it's going to be Case Keenum instead.   I added more money at +3.  I still expect the Texans to win this game even with Keenum.  This play was more of a fade of the Browns than anything.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have been at their best offensively at home, averaging 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.

Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage against the Titans to take pressure off Keenum.  

The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  Also expected to play are OT Laremy Tunsil, G Shaq Mason, WR John Metchie, S Jimmie Ward and LB Denzel Perryman as the injury report came out pretty clean on Thursday compared to what most were expecting.

Joe Flacco is getting way too much love right now.  He has beaten a hobbled Trevor Lawrence and a flat-lining Jaguars team at home.  He needed a 10-point comeback in the 4th quarter to beat the Bears at home last week.  And in his lone road start, he lost 35-19 to the Rams.  Flacco has thrown 5 interceptions in his three starts and is playing behind the most banged-up offensive line in the NFL.  The Browns are missing their top three offensive tackles, and currently four more projected starters are questionable or doubtful.  Flacco and this offensive line will get exposed on the road this week in a hostile environment against a solid Houston defense.

The Browns are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season and getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play away from home.  Kevin Stefanski is 5-17 ATS games after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Cleveland.  The Browns are 14-36 ATS in their last 50 games vs. good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston will win this game outright.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Colts/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-4 OVER in all games this season.  They run an up-tempo, creative offense under Shane Steichen and have a terrible defense.  The Colts are expected to get their two biggest playmakers back on offense this week in WR Michael Pittman Jr. and RB Jonathan Stewart.

Now they hit the road to face an Atlanta Falcons team that is also built for more OVERS, especially with the upgrade of Taylor Heineke at QB.  Arthur Smith said Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers in terrible weather conditions outdoors last week.  That score is suppressing this total as well and providing us with some line value on the OVER.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  But they have a poor defense that has allowed 25 or more points in four of their last seven games.  Both teams will get their points in this one.

The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Colts will get their points as well as they always do, putting up 27 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.

Indianapolis is 8-2 OVER in games played on turf this season.  The Colts are 25-7 OVER in their last 32 road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games.  Plays on the OVER on all teams against the total (Atlanta) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 43.5

The Los Angeles Chargers absolutely quit defensively last week.  They gave up 63 points to the lowly Raiders, who had been shut out the previous week.  I don't trust this defense to show up at all against the Bills on Saturday, and I expect the Bills to hang a big number on the Chargers to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bills have scored at least 31 points in three of their last four games overall and I expect them to get 31-plus in this one.  I like what I saw from the Chargers offensively late in that loss to the Raiders.  They were down 63-7 and kept trying to score, putting up two touchdowns in the final eight minutes.  They will keep coming on offense as Easton Stick is trying to prove he belongs.

The Bills have a very banged up defense.  They are without CB White and LB MIlano, plus a ton of players have the questionable tag this week in DE Epenesa, DT Phillips, DE Floyd, CB Elam and FS Hyde.  They would be a legit Super Bowl contender if they could just get some of these guys healthy, but that won't be the case this week.  The Chargers have five defenders on IR and four more questionable for this one.

The Chargers and Bills have combined for 44, 51 and 78 points in their last three meetings.  This total is just too short tonight for a game involving these two banged-up defenses and two capable offenses in perfect scoring conditions in Los Angeles.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Saints/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

The Los Angeles Rams are healthy on offense with Stafford, Nacua, Kupp and Williams and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Rams have scored 28 or more points in four consecutive games and are averaging 33 points per game in those four games and hung 31 on the Ravens and 36 on the Browns, two of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Saints' defense isn't nearly as good as it gets credit for.  The Saints have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season.  They still gave up 27 points to the Colts, 27 to the Vikings and 24 to the Falcons.  The only legit offense they faced in recent weeks was the Lions, and they gave up 33 points in a 33-28 loss that saw 61 combined points.  They are without CB Marshon Lattimore and S Marcus Maye, and their secondary will get exposed by the Rams.

But the Saints are getting healthier on offense now and showing what they are capable of.  They have scored 24 or more points six of their last eight games overall.  Now they are expected to get back their top receiver in Chris Olave for this one after he sat out against the Giants with an ankle injury.  I think they can keep pace with the Rams and will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't going to be able to stop Stafford and company.

The last four Rams' games have seen 48, 68, 55 and 51 combined points.  The Rams and Saints have combined for at least 46 points in five of their last six meetings.  This 44.5-point total is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Eagles/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks have two banged up, tired defenses right now heading into this Monday Night Football showdown.  These are also two very healthy offenses that can take advantages of these defenses.  That's why I'm on the OVER, plus the forecast looks pretty good for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 40's.

The Seahawks have allowed 33.3 points per game, 438.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play in their last three games.  They have six players in the front seven depth chart that are out or on the IR.  They have two more secondary players on IR and three more questionable, including CB Devon Witherspoon.  They have no depth right now, and SS Jamal Adams continues to get exposed in coverage week after week.

The Eagles are allowing 36.3 points per game, 451.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in their last three games.  The Eagles have four players on IR in the back seven, plus FS Reed Blankenship suffered a concussion last week and will likely sit.  He means a lot to his secondary.  CB Darius Slay has lost a step and is questionable.  Opponents are really picking on this Eagles' secondary, and the Seahawks will be able to do the same.  This defense was on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs, 91 against the Bills, 55 against the 49ers and then 71 plays against the Cowboys.

The Eagles have been getting a lot of grief on offense the last two games against the 49ers and Cowboys.  They fumbled three times in Dallas territory and should have scored more.  They finally get a reprieve here against the Seahawks, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  So they should get right on offense.  

The Seahawks have been good offensively the last two weeks scoring 35 points against the Cowboys before Geno Smith sat out last week, but they were still productive against the 49ers.  They get Smith back this week from a groin injury and also take a big step down in defensive class here after having to face the 49ers (twice) and Cowboys in their last three games.

Pete Carroll is 30-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Seattle.  Both of these teams are dead nuts OVER teams in their current form and both offenses should be able to take advantage of two of the worst secondaries in the NFL.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Cowboys/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Buffalo ML -120

The Dallas Cowboys hadn't beaten a team that currently has a winning record all season until they finally got that monkey off their back last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Now I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Cowboys coming off that win over their biggest rivals.

The Cowboys had some aid in that game as the Eagles came in with a very tired defense that was on the field for a ton of players the previous two games against the Bills and 49ers.  The Eagles didn't have much left in the tank, and they also had three costly fumbles that were somehow all recovered by the Cowboys.

While this Dallas offense has been humming at home and indoors, the Cowboys now have to go on the road and play on grass in the elements.  I don't think their offense will be nearly as effective.  They also take a big step up in class in opposing defenses after getting to play the Eagles, Seahawks and Commanders the last three weeks.  I think the Bills have the better defense in this matchup.

How has Dallas fared lately on the road outdoors on grass?  How about 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last eight road games on grass.  Now they must take on a rested Bills team that had a bye two weeks ago before going on the road and upsetting the Chiefs 20-17 as underdogs last week.  Now the Bills are very much alive for the playoffs with a lot to play for.  

It will be a raucous atmosphere in Buffalo working in their advantage as the Cowboys rely a lot on timing for their offense.  You hear Dak use "Here We Go" before every snap at home, and it gives them an advantage with that cadence to time it right.  Players won't be able to hear him in Buffalo, and I think we see a ton of Cowboys penalties on offense in this game because of it.  This is one of the most undisciplined teams in the NFL under Mike McCarthy as it is.

I was on Buffalo last week and said they were the best 6-6 team in the history of the NFL, and now they are the best 7-6 team in NFL history.  All six of their losses have come by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.  They are outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game, outgaining them by 57 yards per game and outgaining them by 0.3 yards per play on the season.

Sean McDermott is 11-2 ATS after a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo.  They finally won a close game and now have a ton of confidence and new life heading into this week.  They are still very much alive to win the AFC East with the Dolphins injured and faltering.  Dating back further, Buffalo is 43-18 ATS in its last 61 games off a win by 3 point or less.  Bet the Bills on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Rams -6.5

The Los Angeles Rams have fought their way back into playoff contention since getting healthy.  All of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been banged up at times this season and missed games.  But now all four are healthy and we're getting to see that this is one of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.

The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  They weren't very good before making those moves, but they have been even worse after.  They allowed 38 points to the Eagles, 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to the Giants, 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys and then 45 points and 406 yards to the Dolphins in their five games other than the Patriots during this stretch.  The Patriots have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Rams are going to hang a big number on them, too.  The Rams are humming on offense right now scoring 37 points with 457 yards on the Cardinals, 36 points with 399 yards on the Browns and 31 points with 410 yards against the Ravens in their last three games.  Baltimore and Cleveland have two of the best defenses in the NFL, so this will be a big step down in class for them.

Stafford is completing 60% of his passes for 3,062 yards with a 19-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and averaging 7.3 per attempt.  Williams has rushed for 801 yards and accounted for 10 total TD while averaging 5.0 per attempt on the ground.  Having him back in the lineup has meant everything.  Kupp is finally fully healthy for the first time all season, and Nacua has 82 receptions for 1,113 yards and 4 TD to emerge as one of the top receivers in the NFL already.

The Rams have also allowed 20 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall as they have finally gotten healthy.  Only the Ravens hung more than 20 on them, and the Ravens have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they face a Commanders offense that has been held to 20 points or fewer in four of their last five games.  Sam Howell is a turnover machine as the Commanders have 11 turnovers in their last five games during this stretch.  Howell is going to have to play a flawless game for the Commanders to have any chance, and I don't see that happening.  This line should be -7 or higher.

You also have to question the motivation of Washington.  Ron Rivera fired a couple staff members already, and he is a dead man walking at the end of the season and players know it.  It's going to be hard for these players to be motivated the rest of the way knowing that's the case.  The Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 December games.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +14

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They are coming off their bye week and these bye weeks are usually more effective for teams with first-year head coaches like Arizona.  The Cardinals continue to show up every week and have been competitive in three of their last four games, including outright upsets over Atlanta at home and Pittsburgh on the road since getting Kyler Murray back.  They also only lost by 5 at Houston as 5.5-point dogs, going 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  Their only blowout loss came to the Rams, a team that has owned them since Sean McVay took over.

This is a terrible spot for the San Francisco 49ers.  They have won five consecutive games since their bye week with the last three coming against the Seahawks (twice) and Eagles.  After playing two division games and getting their revenge on the Eagles, this is the 'exhale' game for the 49ers.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory in Arizona.  They won't be worrying about getting margin.  Plus, they have another massive game against Baltimore on deck, so that makes this a sandwich spot for them.

We saw the Seahawks cover against the 49ers last week after getting blown out by them in the first meeting.  I think we see the same thing here.  Arizona lost 35-16 in San Francisco as 15-point underdogs in that first meeting this season.  But that game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate.  The 49ers only outgained the Cardinals by 33 yards in that game.  Josh Dobbs was the starting QB in that game, and twice receivers dropped TD passes that would have gotten the Cardinals the back door cover in the closing seconds.  Murray is clearly and upgrade over Dobbs.

The 49ers had six starters miss practice on Wednesday heading into this game.  DT Arik Armstead, OL Spencer Burford, LB Oren Burks, LB Dre Greenlaw, DT Javon Hargrave and CB Charvaius Ward were all out Wednesday.  That makes all six questionable heading into this one, and I would not be surprised to see the 49ers be cautious with some of these guys thinking they can still beat the Cardinals without them.

The Cardinals should get rookie WR Michael Wilson back for the first time since November 17th.  There's also a decent chance WR Marquise Brown plays after the bye week.  CB Antonio Hamilton sat out last game but is back practicing.  The bottom line is the Cardinals should be much healthier this week, while the 49ers have a lot of key players that could miss this game after getting battered against the Seahawks last week.

It's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers, who are power-rated through the roof by everyone right now.  Plays against road favorites (San Francisco) - a dominant team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game after a win by 10 points or more are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on 49ers/Cardinals OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers have the best offense in the NFL right now.  They are scoring 29.2 points per game, averaging 402.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense right now and have scored at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  They will get their points against the Cardinals this week as well.

But I think the Cardinals can get their points, too.  They are coming off a bye week and should get WR Michael Wilson back this week.  The Cardinals put up 24 points on the Steelers the game going into their bye, and they are primed for another solid performance here against the 49ers.  They should have some new offensive wrinkles for Murray under a first-year head coach coming out of their bye.

The Cardinals do have one of the worst defenses in the NFL allowing 25.5 points per game, 355.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have allowed 35, 38, 38 and 31 points to the 49ers in their last four meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in those four meetings with 48 or more combined points in all four.

The 49ers have a very good defense, but they have some concerning injuries on that side of the ball right now.  Four starters in LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarius Ward, DL Javon Hargrave and LB Oren Burks all missed practice on Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week.  The Seahawks found success against them last week even with backup QB Drew Lock.  I think this could be a letdown spot for this San Francisco defense.  Josh Dobbs and Arizona's offense put up 362 total yards on the 49ers in their first meeting this season.  Kyler Murray should have even more success.  

The OVER is 5-0-1 in Arizona's six home games this season inside the dome.  We are seeing 51.9 combined points per game in these six games.  Five of the six games have seen 48 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Rams OVER 48.5

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER 4-0 in their last four games overall with 50 or more combined points in all four.  They have gone for 50 or more combined points in five of their last six games with the lone exception being their game against the Patriots, who are a dead nuts under team with no offense and a great defense.

The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  They weren't very good before making those moves, but they have been even worse after.  They allowed 38 points to the Eagles, 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to the Giants, 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys and then 45 points and 406 yards to the Dolphins in their five games other than the Patriots during this stretch.

The Rams are going to hang a big number on them, too.  The Rams are humming on offense right now scoring 37 points with 457 yards on the Cardinals, 36 points with 399 yards on the Browns and 31 points with 410 yards against the Ravens.  Baltimore and Cleveland have two of the best defenses in the NFL, so this will be a big step down in class for them.  The OVER is 3-0 in Rams last three games overall with 51, 55 and 68 combined points.  Their defense gave up 37 points and 449 yards to the Ravens last week.

The Commanders are coming off their bye week and should have some new wrinkles on offense to give this mediocre Rams defense some troubles.  Rookie QB Sam Howell ranks 5th in the NFL in passing yards with 3,449 yards this season.  He has ample weapons outside to get the ball to, and he's a dual-threat who averages 6.1 yards per attempt and has 5 rushing touchdowns this season.  He is also a turnover machine.  This offense is pretty much fully healthy heading into this game and will have to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep up with the Rams, who will name their number.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5

I've backed the Bears each of the last two weeks and they delivered pulling off the outright upsets over the Vikings and Lions.  I'm going to back them again this week as 3.5-point road dogs to Cleveland as they continue to be undervalued.  Their season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they have been a completely different team in the 2nd half of the season.

It basically started when they traded for Montez Sweat and the defense got healthy.  The Bears have allowed 13 points or fewer in three of their last four games.  The held the Lions to just 14 points with only a few minutes left in the game before the Lions went off for 17 points in the final couple minutes.  They got their revenge on the Lions with a 28-13 home win last week, holding them to 267 total yards in the process.

Now the Bears actually feel like they are still alive for the playoffs at 5-8 this season.  If they win this game against Cleveland, then they have two home games they will likely be favored in the next two weeks against Arizona and Atlanta.  They can legitimately get to 8-8 this season, and that would keep them alive because the 6-7 Packers are currently in the playoffs in the NFC if the season were to end today.  They play the Packers in Week 18.

Justin Fields returned against the Lions three weeks ago and has been playing some pretty flawless football both as a runner and as a passer.  He has found a great connection with DJ Moore, and the Bears have really opened up the playbook.  Also helping matters is the fact that the Bears are currently the healthiest team in the NFL.  They only have five players on the injury report and two are likely to play this week with only one for sure out.

Conversely, the Cleveland Browns are the most injury-riddled team in the entire NFL right now.  They are down to their 4th different starting QB in Joe Flacco, and while he has played well, there's reason to believe he won't this week.  That's because the offensive line will be without their top 3 offensive tackles.  G Joel Bitonio and C Ethan Pocic are also questionable.  This is an absolute mash unit up front for Flacco.

Defensively, DE Myles Garrett is banged up.  DT Jordan Elliott, CB Denzel Ward, and FS Juan Thornhill are all questionable.  SS Grant Delpit just hit the IR after suffering a groin injury last week.  This Cleveland defense has taken a big step back in recent weeks due to all these injuries.  They are allowing 30.7 points per game in their last three games.  They gave up 29 to Denver, 36 to the Rams and 27 to the Jaguars.  The Bears are going to have a lot of success against this defense, especially on the ground.  Cleveland is allowing 130 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per game in its last four games.

Cleveland would have gone five consecutive games without winning once by more than 3 points if the Jaguars had kicked the XP at the end in a 4-point loss.  That's why getting this +3.5 number is so key.  Also keep in mind the Jaguars were playing with a banged-up and immobile Trevor Lawrence, he was missing his top receiver and both starting tackles on offense.  Yet the Jaguars still scored 27 points on them.  And this will be the toughest defense that Joe Flacco will have faced after getting to face the Jaguars and Rams previously.  I fully expect Chicago to win this game outright.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have been grossly undervalued since Tommy DeVito took over as the full-time starter.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets.  They beat Washington 31-19 as 7.5-point road dogs, the Patriots 10-7 as 4.5-point home dogs and the Packers 24-22 as 5.5-point home dogs.  Now they are being undervalued again here as 6-point road dogs at New Orleans.

DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 66% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 6.8 per attempt, plus he adds a dual-threat dimension with 71 rushing yards and on 10 attempts against the Packers.  The Giants used their bye well and came up with the proper game plan to beat the Packers and use DeVito's legs more.  And now they should still be fresh considering they just had a bye week to make up for the fact that this is a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

But while I believe the Giants are undervalued, this is as much a bet against the Saints being overvalued as anything.  They are coming off one of the most misleading finals of the season last week when they beat the Panthers 28-6.  They only gained 207 yards in that game and gave up 303 yards to the Panthers, nearly getting outgained by 100 yards despite winning by 22.

Derek Carr came out and said he's playing through fractured ribs.  This is a very banged up Saints team with their top two WR's in Olave and Shaheed questionable.  G Andrus Peat is also questionable as is do-it-all QB Taysom Hill, who sat out last week.  Defensively, the Saints have lost their best CB in Marshon Lattimore, starting S Marcus Maye and starting DT Malcolm Roach who are all on injured reserve.

I just don't think there's much separating these two teams right now.  The Giants' season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they are a much better team now than they were in the first half of the season.  They are as healthy as they have been all season on the offensive line and at receiver, plus having RB Saquan Barkley healthy has made a big difference as well.  Their defense is good enough to keep them in this game for four quarters and is playing at a high level right now.  The team clearly has belief now with DeVito under center.

Derek Carr is 19-37 ATS as a favorite in his career, including 9-26 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Dennis Allen is 6-16 ATS as a favorite as a head coach, including 2-8 ATS this season.  Allen is 0-7 ATS after a win by 10 points or more as a head coach.  New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  New York is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Saints are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* Broncos/Lions Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver +5.5

The Detroit Lions just cannot be trusted right now because they are so poor defensively.  They allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 points to the Bears, 29 points to the Packers, 28 to the Saints and 28 to the Bears in their last five games.  There is no help in sight, especially since they lost one of their most important defensive players in DT Alim McNeill to injured reserve two games ago.

Jared Goff is not playing well either and he has poor protection in front of him.  Both T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnow are questionable for this game.  Now he'll be up against a very good Denver defense that has allowed 22 or fewer points in eight consecutive games and an average of 14.8 points per game in those eight games.  They have been grossly undervalued after a poor start to the season by their defense, but now they are healthy and showing what they are capable of.

This defensive surge for the Broncos is a big reason why they are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last even games overall with their lone loss coming by 5 points at Houston in a game where they had a chance to win in the closing seconds but threw an INT in the end zone.  They beat the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, Browns, Packers and Chargers during this 6-1 stretch, so it's not like they are beating up on the weak.  Five of those six wins came against playoff contenders.

This Denver offense is taking care of the football with a ball control offense and taking shots when they are there.  The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games overall, and they won't have a problem getting to that number against this soft Detroit defense.  This is actually a big step down in class for them after facing the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Vikings, Bills and Chiefs in their last six games.  Russell Wilson is in line for a big game, as is RB Javonte Williams and this Denver rushing attack.

Detroit is 35-58 ATS in its last 93 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Sean Payton is 28-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as a head coach.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after allowing 25 points or more in four consecutive games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983.  This game will likely be decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Broncos Saturday.

15* Vikings/Bengals NFL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have a terrible defense that has allowed 30 or more points in three of their last five games overall.  They also allowed over 400 yards to the Steelers in one of the two games they didn't.  They allow 379 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.

The offense hasn't missed a beat with Jake Browning at quarterback the last two weeks plus the emergence of Chase Brown in the backfield.  Ja'Marr Chase has been balling out for Browning, and having a healthy Tee Higgins back in the lineup has helped as well.

Browning is completing 76% of his passes for 924 yards with a 5-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He went 32-of-37 passing for 354 yards against the Jaguars and 18-of-24 passing for 275 yards against the Colts in his last two games as the full-time starter.

The Vikings are making the switch to Nick Mullens at QB after the Josh Dobbs experiment did not work.  He was dreadful against the Bears and Raiders the last two weeks.  Mullens is a better fit for Kevin O'Connell's offensive system and will stand in the pocket and make the right throws.  He should be sharp with a full week to prepare to be the starter.

Mullens got good news on the injury front with WR Justin Jefferson expected to play.  He returned last week and got injured early against the Raiders.  I also think this Vikings offense will benefit from taking a step down in class this week against this Bengals defense.  The Vikings have played four straight good defenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints.

At the same time, this Minnesota defense is getting a lot of credit for what they have done in recent weeks.  But they have also benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints the last four weeks as well.  This is a big step up in class for them facing a Cincinnati offense that is humming right now.

The forecast looks great for a game in Cincinnati in December as well.  There are expected to be only 5 MPH winds with temps in the 50's.  I do think this game has shootout written all over it too, and this total is very low for a game involving the Bengals right now.

The OVER is 5-2 in Bengals last seven games overall and we've seen 42 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  Zac Taylor is 8-1 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Titans/Dolphins OVER 46.5

Miami averages 32.0 points per game, 428.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league.  They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and they just got their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury last week.  He averages 9.5 yards per carry with 534 rushing yards and 7 TD, while also catching 13 balls for 101 yards and another 2 TD.  He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.

The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog two weeks ago in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets.  They also potentially lost fellow LB Jerome Baker to a knee injury in their 45-15 win over the Commanders last week.  They are getting short on pass rushers.

The Titans are coming off a 31-28 (OT) shootout loss to the Colts last week.  They did enough on offense to win that game with 381 total yards.  Unfortunately their defense and special teams let them down, and they lost their punter to injury after having his 2nd punt blocked.  They also lost Derrick Henry, but he cleared concussion protocol and there's a good chance he plays this week.  But the big loss is DT Jeffery Simmons, who suffered a knee injury last week and is now out for this game.  Simmons is one of the best DT in the entire NFL and one of the most underrated as well.

The Dolphins are going to be able to name their number against this putrid Tennessee defense that allows 67.3% completions and 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  They gave up 31 points and 300 passing yards to the Colts last week.  They gave up 34 points in their previous road game to the Jaguars.  And now they will be up against the best offense they have faced all season this week.

I think Will Levis can do enough to keep the Titans coming back and help cash this OVER ticket.  Levis is one of the top deep ball throwers in the NFL right now and has found a good connection with DeAndre Hopkins.  He also has a weapon in Tyjae Spears out of the backfield and is forming chemistry with Chigoziem Okonkwo, who had 3 receptions for 62 yards against the Colts last week.

Miami and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in nine of its 12 games this season.  The only exceptions were against three teams with bad offenses and good defenses in the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders.  The Titans don't meet the criteria of a good defense, especially after trading away S Kevin Byard and now losing DT Jeffery Simmons to injury.

Plays on the OVER on any team (Tennessee) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival in the 2nd half of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last five seasons.  Teams in this situation off a 7-point loss or less are 41-15 (73.2%) to the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the Green Bay Packers this week.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.  They took advantage of several drops by the Chargers and won 23-20 as 3-point home dogs.  They took advantage of more mistakes by the Lions in a 29-22 win as 8.5-point road dogs on Thanksgiving.

Last week they didn't have a letdown because they had the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs come to Lambeau Field.  They promptly pulled off the 27-19 upset as 6-point home dogs.  The Chiefs' offense remained broken, and they lost two starters on defense and one on offense due to injury throughout the game.

This is the letdown spot.  Now the Packers go from 6-point home dogs to 7-point road favorites against the New York Giants.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Giants as they were the Lions and Chiefs.  You just can't get up for opponents this many games in a row.  This is a clear flat spot for the Packers, who are fat and happy right now and primed for that dreaded letdown.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants continue to get no respect from the books for a 3rd consecutive game.  The Giants pulled the 31-19 upset as 7.5-point road dogs to the Commanders two games ago.  They pulled the 10-7 upset home win over the Patriots as 4.5-point dogs in their last game.  And last week they had a bye to rest and recover and prepare to face the Packers.

Head coach Brian Daboll is one of the best in the business at getting the most out of his players.  He will come up with the proper game plan to get his team ready.  Tommy DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for, completing 63% of his passes with a 7-to-3 TD/INT ratio in five games this season.  He has more TD passes (7) than Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor (4) have combined for this season.  And the team loves him and is playing hard for him, which is what matters most.

The Giants have a pretty good defense and have held opponents to just 18.2 points per game, 271 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play at home this season.  They will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Jordan Love and company.  Love and WR Christian Watson were forming a great chemistry, but Watson suffered a hamstring injury late in the win over the Chiefs and is doubtful to play this week.  Also doubtful is RB Aaron Jones, and TE Luke Musgrave remains out.  The Watson injury in particular is massive because the Packers have a bunch of no-name receivers outside he and Doubs.

The Giants have a healthy Saquon Barkley to deploy against this shaky Packers run defense and take some pressure off DeVito.  The Packers have allowed at least 140 rushing yards in four consecutive games.  They allow 136 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry on the season, making them one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run.  They are 30th in rushing yards per game allowed and 26th in yards per carry allowed.

Green Bay is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that allow 130 or more rushing yards per game.  Plays against road favorites (Green Bay) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 335-370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers will get more of a fight from the rested Giants than they bargained for Monday night.  It's time to 'sell high' on Green Bay.  Bet the Giants Monday.

25* Eagles/Cowboys NBC SNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas -3

My favorite play last week was the 49ers over the Eagles.  One of my favorite plays this week is the Cowboys over the Eagles for many of the same reasons.  Just like the 49ers wanted revenge from their playoff loss to the Eagles, the Cowboys want revenge from their 28-23 loss in Philadelphia earlier this season.

Just like the 49ers had the rest advantage on the Eagles after playing on Thursday while the Eagles played on Monday the previous week, the Cowboys have the rest advantage after playing on Thursday while the Eagles were in that war with the 49ers.  In fact, the Eagles have been in several wars here recently and don't have anything left in the tank for the Cowboys.

The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet.  They put in a lot against the 49ers last week in their 42-19 defeat.  They just went to OT against the Bills the week prior in a downpour.  They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior.  And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior.  So this will be their 5th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL.

The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out.  They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills.  They gave up 515 total yards to the Bills and then were gashed for 42 points and 456 yards by the 49ers.  They also banged up and injured, particularly on defense.

The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until the last two weeks.  Well, the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks.  They beat the Commanders five games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys four games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs three games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills two weeks ago despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.  They were outgained by 123 yards by the 49ers last week.

As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in five consecutive games and somehow managed to win four of them.  They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score.  Their luck ran out last week against the 49ers, and it won't come back this week against a Cowboys team that is fresher, healthier and simply wants it more.

The numbers certainly show the Cowboys are the better team.  They are outgaining opponents by 93 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play this season, while the Eagles are only outgaining opponents by 11 yards per game and actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Dallas should be more than a 3-point home favorite when you consider they are the better team with all those rest and healthy advantages to boot.

Dallas is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.2 points per game.  The Cowboys are scoring 41.0 points per game at home this season.  They have scored 40, 41, 37, 37 and 29 points in their last five home meetings with the Eagles while going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in those five home meetings.  Betting Dallas team total over 27.5 is also worth a bet this week.  

Dallas is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 400 or more yards in its previous game.  The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. awful passing defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards per game.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 30 points or more last game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Dallas.  The Cowboys were looking ahead to this game against Philadelphia and still managed to beat the Seahawks 41-35 last week.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Bills/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +3

I love the spot for the Buffalo Bills this week.  They are desperate for a win sitting at 6-6 on the season and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.  The Bills got their bye week at the perfect time last week to give them a chance to get healthy and rested to make a run here down the stretch.  It starts with an upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs this week.

The Bills are one of the best 6-6 teams in NFL history when you look at their numbers.  They are actually outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game, outgaining opponents by 64 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.  They have simply had poor luck in close games with all six losses coming by 6 points or fewer.

The Chiefs have been through a bit of a gauntlet the last three weeks.  They lost 21-17 at home to Philadelphia after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead three weeks ago.  They needed to come back from 14-0 down to beat the Raiders two weeks ago on the road.  And last week they lost 27-19 at Green Bay on Sunday Night Football.  They won't be able to match the intensity of the rested Bills.

The Chiefs suffered some key injuries in that loss to the Packers last week.  They lost LB Drue Tranquill to a concussion, S Bryan Cook to an ankle and T Donovan Smith to a neck injury.  The first two almost certainly will be out, while Smith is highly questionable.  That's a big blow to their defense, which was already missing LB Nick Bolton.  That defense got gashed by the Packers for 27 points and 382 total yards.

This Kansas City offense is broken, which is why the Chiefs aren't nearly as good as they have been in year's past.  They average just 22.9 points per game this season.  That's a far cry from the 30-plus they have been averaging since Mahomes took over at QB.  It's late enough in the season to realize this offense just isn't going to get fixed because there is a lack of playmakers on the outside other than Travis Kelce, and teams have been scheming to take him away.  The Bills will be doing the same.

The Bills are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games after allowing 25 points or more.  Buffalo is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 road games off a road loss.  Plays on road teams (Buffalo) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 91-38 (70.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  These teams are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 years when the line is +3 to -3.  

Buffalo is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Kansas City.  Sean McDermott is 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Lions/Bears OVER 43.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 79, 57, 51 and 61 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.  I get there is expected to be some weather, but I still like the OVER in this one.

Justin Fields has been playing some great football since returning from injury and is a different QB right now.  He is using his legs well as the Bears have rushed for an average of 147.5 yards per game in their last four games.  They average 138 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season.

The Bears are going to be able to move the football at will on a Detroit defense that is one of the worst in the NFL right now.  The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers and 28 to the Saints in their last four games.  They have allowed an average of 30.3 points per game in their last four games overall.

It will be tough for the Bears to tame this Detroit offense for four quarters.  The Lions are loaded with weapons and a good rushing attack.  They average 27.3 points per game, 400.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 57, 61 and 61 combined points.  Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Lions are 7-1 OVER off a win this season.  Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. teams that allow 235 or more passing yards per game.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bears +5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bears Sunday.  They will be out for revenge from blowing a 26-14 lead with under 3 minutes to go in a 31-26 loss to the Lions just three weeks ago.  The Bears are the healthiest team in the NFL right now and coming out of their bye week.  This team is trending in the right direction and primed for a big effort Sunday off the bye.

Justin Fields has been playing some great football since returning from injury and is a different QB right now.  He is using his legs well as the Bears have rushed for an average of 147.5 yards per game in their last four games.  They average 138 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season.

The Bears are going to be able to move the football at will on a Detroit defense that is one of the worst in the NFL right now.  The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers and 28 to the Saints in their last four games.  They have allowed an average of 30.3 points per game in their last four games overall.  It is tough for them to get margin when they can't stop anyone.

The weather is going to help us cash this ticket on the Bears.  The forecast is calling for 20 MPH winds and better than a 50% chance of precipitation.  The Bears rely much more on running the football than the Lions do.  Jared Goff has not been good outdoors in bad weather in his career.  The weather will limit this usually potent Detroit passing attack.

The Lions are going to be forced to run the football more than they want to, and when they try they are going to be up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the Bears.  The allow just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  The Bears have been playing great defense for weeks since getting healthy and trading for Montez Sweat.  That is a big reason they are undervalued, plus the fact that Fields has been better than most realize.

The Lions lost their two centerpieces to injury last week against the Saints.  They will be without DT Alim McNeill and C Frank Ragnow.  Their losses hurt this team more than most realize as McNeill is a great run stuffer and also had 5 sacks this season.  Many feel he is the heart and soul of the defense.  Ragnow is a tremendous run blocker and makes all the calls on the offensive line.  Goff will be very uncomfortable without him.

Detroit is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Lions are a tired team playing four straight one-score games the last four weeks.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bears, who are off their bye and ready for revenge in the elements at Soldier Field.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 39

The first meeting between the Bucs and Falcons this season saw just 29 combined points in a 16-13 road victory by the Falcons.  The score from that first meeting is providing us some line value to go OVER the total in the 2nd meeting here with a total below the key number of 40.

That first meeting should have seen nearly 50 combined points.  Desmond Ridder fumbled three times when the Falcons were in scoring position, including twice at the Tampa Bay 1-yard line.  That's a minimum of 17 extra points they should have had but didn't get.  The Bucs also had two turnovers and red zone struggles.  These teams combined for 730 total yards with the Falcons with 401 and the Bucs with 329.  Both teams moved the ball with plenty of ease in that contest.

The difference in the rematch is now this is going to be on a fast track inside the dome in Atlanta.  Looking back at this head-to-head history, it's easy to see there's value with the OVER when looking at previous games played in Atlanta.  In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 43 or more points in 10 consecutive meetings in Atlanta, including 47 or more in nine of those 10.  They have averaged 54.8 combined points per game in those 10 games, which is more than 15 points higher than this total.  They have combined for 39 or more points in 13 consecutive meetings in Atlanta as well, making for a 12-0-1 system backing this OVER pertaining to this 39-point total.

More key differences in the rematch are that both defenses are banged up and missing key players.  The Falcons lost their most important defender in DT Grady Jarrett to a torn ACL.  Last week they lost their top CB AJ Terrell to a concussion, and it's unlikely he'll be able to clear protocols in time for this one.  That's bad news for the Falcons not having him against Tampa Bay star WR Mike Evans, who just topped 1,000 yards receiving for the 10th consecutive season last week.  Only Jerry Rice has more with 11.  Starting MLB Nate Landman and starting NT David Onyemata are both questionable as well.

The Bucs have all kinds of injuries at linebacker.  They were without five linebackers by the end of their game against the Panthers last week.  Lavonte David may return this week, but they are thin at the position.  NT Vita Vea missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury, and their top CB in Jamel Dean remains out.  

What was previously a great Tampa Bay run defense now has shown some holes the last two weeks.  The Colts rushed for 155 yards on them and the Panthers rushed for 133 on them the last two games.  Now they have to try and tame one of the best rushing attack in the NFL in the Falcons, who average 135 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this season.

I think Atlanta's low-scoring game with the Jets last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  That game was played outdoors and the Falcons were just trying not to make mistakes because they knew the Jets couldn't move the football on them with Tim Boyle at QB.  It has bene a different story at home for the Falcons this season.  The Falcons average 23.0 points per game, 380.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play at home on the fast track.  They also allow 20.5 points per game at home, averaging 43.5 combined points per game in their six home games this season.

The Bucs allow 23.8 points per game, 383.8 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on the road this season.  Their offense has been better on the road, averaging 22.5 points per game away from home.  Tampa Bay road games are averaging 46.3 combined points per game this season.  Given all the defensive injuries for both teams and all these numbers, this 39-point total is clearly too low this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bengals/Jaguars ESPN No-Brainer on Jacksonville -7

BONUS TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 8-3 this season and a legitimate contender for the top seed in the AFC.  They have gotten their offense going coming out of the bye scoring 34 points in a 34-14 win over the Titans at home and then 24 points in a 24-21 road win at Houston.  They also had 445 total yards on the Texans and should have scored more, getting stopped at the 1-yard line right before halftime and also missing a FG.

Now the Jaguars will hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the entire NFL right now in the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals are allowing 389.0 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  They just allowed the Pittsburgh Steelers to top 400 yards, which is remarkable considering Pittsburgh had gone 58 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.

That was a very misleading final against the Steelers that is keeping this line lower than it should be.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals 421 to 222, or by 199 total yards.  They only won 16-10 and should have won by more.  They dropped a wide open TD among other fluky mistakes.

The Bengals allowed 34 points and 405 yards to the Ravens the week prior and 30 points and 544 yards to the Texans the week before.  The Jaguars will be able to name their number on this soft Cincinnati defense, and the Bengals won't be able to keep up without Joe Burrow.  It was an ugly showing for Jake Browning in his first start in place of Burrow as he led the Bengals to just 222 total yards and 10 points.  It won't go any better against one of the top defenses in the NFL in the Jaguars, who allow just 20.5 points per game and 342.4 yards per game this season.

Jacksonville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after covering the spread in three of its last four games.  The Bengals are 1-25 SU in road-neutral night games over the last 25 years.  They are on a 16-game losing streak in this spot with their last win in Philadelphia in 2012.  Zac Taylor is 4-20 SU as a head coach of the Bengals without Joe Burrow as his QB.

Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Jaguars Monday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco PK

I love the spot for the San Francisco 49ers this week.  They have extra rest after playing last Thursday while also recently getting a bye.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season and showing what they can do when healthy, going 3-0 since the bye while outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 92-30, or by an average of over 20 pints per game.

Now the 49ers have their sights set on revenge on the Philadelphia Eagles, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  Brock Purdy got hurt in the first half of that game against the Eagles and it really changed the game.  To a man, the 49ers believe they would have won that game if he finished the game healthy.  Now they'll be out to prove it.

The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet.  They just went to OT against the Bills last week in a downpour.  They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior.  And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior.  So this will be their 4th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL, and they have a rematch with the Cowboys on deck next week.

The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out.  They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills last week.  They gave up 505 total yards to the Bills last week.  They lost DT Fletcher Cox and LB Zach Cunningham to injury in that game, and both are very questionable to play this week and missed practice on Wednesday.  OT Lane Johnson is one of their most important players and is questionable to play as well.

The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until last week.  Well the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks.  They beat the Commanders four games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys three games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs two games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills last week despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.

As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in four consecutive games and won them all.  They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score.  I think their luck runs out this week against a 49ers team that wants it more, is the better team and is the much healthier team.

The 49ers have elite numbers this season scoring 28.2 points per game and allowing 15.5 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per gmae.  They are outgaining opponents by 91 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.5 yards per play on the season.  The Eagles are now only outgaining opponnets by 23 yards per game and 0.2 yards per play.  They are much closer to an average team than their record would indicate simply due to their luck in close games.

The 49ers are 8-0 when they've had Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams on the field at the same time this season with all eight wins coming by 7 points or more and seven of those eight wins by 13 points or more.  They improve to 9-0 with Samuel and Williams on the field this week.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos/Texans OVER 45

It has taken a couple miracles to keep the last two Houston games under the total.  I know because I've been on the over in both of them, and both losses were bad beats.  I think there's value in the OVER in a Houston game this week as a result.

Houston and Arizona scored 31 combined points in the 1st half two weeks ago.  But they only had 6 points after halftime due to CJ Stroud throwing three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line, and the Cardinals turning it over on downs three times in Arizona territory.

Last week, Houston and Jacksonville combined for over 800 yards of offense.  But there were three missed FG's and the Jaguars were stopped at the 1-yard line to finish on 45 combined points and under the closing 48-point total.  I have to think Houston is going to start cashing in more scoring opportunities, and Denver will get their fair share of points this week as well.

CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now.  The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game.  Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday.  They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive.  They should have all four this week.

Russell Wilson is clearly more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense now than he was at the beginning of the season.  The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in four consecutive games and an average of 24.5 points per game during this stretch despite facing four good defenses in the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns.  This Houston defense that ha s allowed at least 24 points in three of their last four is actually a big step down in competition for Wilson and company.  But the Texans will get their points, and Wilson will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout in perfect conditions inside the dome in Houston.

 I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for.  The Broncos have benefited from forcing a total of 16 turnovers during their five-game winning streak.  But the season-long stats show this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos allow 25.5 points per game, 388.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, with the latter two numbers being the worst marks in the league.

Plays on the OVER on any team (Houston) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers went 58 games in a row without gaining 400 yards.  It spanned from Matt Canada's first game as offensive coordinator to his last.  Fittingly, Canada was fired last week, and the Steelers topped 400 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals.  They used the middle of the field a lot more with TE Pat Freirmuth and got their running game going, which has quietly been dominant in recent weeks.

The Steelers have rushed for at least 153 yards in four consecutive games and an average of 174 yards per game to take some pressure off Kenny Pickett.  He had one of the best games of his career against the Bengals, going 24-of-33 passing for 278 yards without an interception in the win.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 200 yards and should have won by more as it was a misleading final in a 16-10 win.  I think that misleading final is keeping this line shorter than it should be.

Now the Steelers get to go up against a similarly poor defense in the Arizona Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals gave up 419 yards to the Texans two weeks ago and 37 points and 457 total yards to the Rams last week.  They should have allowed more points to the Texans as CJ Stroud threw three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line to take points off the board.  That was a misleading final and they were fortunate to cover the 5.5-point spread in a 5-point loss.

The Steelers should be able to run the ball at will against an Arizona defense that allows 140 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They gave up 228 rushing yards to the Rams last week and have allowed at least 111 rushing yards in seven consecutive games.  They just lost their top LB in Kyzir White to a season-ending injury against the Texans and have a ton more injuries that are hampering them defensively.

The offense doesn't look any better with Kyler Murray at QB than it did with Josh Dobbs.  They managed just 16 points against the Texans two weeks ago and 14 points against the Rams last week. Three key playmakers in WR Marquise Brown, WR Michael Wilson and TE Trey McBride all missed practice Wednesday and are questionable.  Speaking of questionable, the Cardinals have questionable motivation the rest of the way and would be better off trying to tank for a top pick.  They may do so without even trying as they are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Steelers have a lot more to play for and are trying to win a division title.  They trail the Ravens by just one game in the division and have the tiebreaker over them.  They have five straight very winnable games coming up and want to take advantage.  I think with new life on offense and an already dominant defense, the sky is the limit for this team.  Plus, they should get S Minkah Fitzpatrick back from injury as he returned to practice this week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.

Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.  Mike Tomlin does a good job of getting his players to take every game seriously the later in the season it gets.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Commanders OVER 49

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  They probably currently have the worst defense in the NFL after trading away two of their best defensive linemen in Sweat to the Bears and Young to the 49ers.  They also have a ton of injuries in the secondary that are making them dreadful on that end right now.

Indeed, the Commanders have allowed 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to Tommy DeVito and the Giants and 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys in their last three games coming in.  It's safe to say this No. 1 ranked Miami offense is going to hang a big number on them this week.

Miami averages 30.8 points per game, 430.5 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league.  They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and now they get their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury this week.  He averages 11.8 yards per carry with 461 yards and 5 TD.  He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.

The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog last week in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets.  Sam Howell has been one of the most impressive rookies in the NFL for Washington and actually leads the league in passing yards.  

Howell has thrown 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions this season while completing 67% of his passes and averaging 278.3 passing yards per game.  He has also rushed for 222 yards and three TD while averaging 6.2 per carry.  He is a walking turnover though, so expect some easy scores by the Dolphins due to those turnovers.  But Howell will keep coming, and that's what you need when backing an OVER is the trailing team capable of scoring quickly in comeback mode.  We have that here on both sides.

Miami is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% or higher completions.  Mike McDaniel is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of the Dolphins.  Ron Rivera is 30-12 OVER vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Saints OVER 44.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and a very leaky defense.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions, so I jumped on this OVER 44.5 early in the week when the lines came out.

In their last four games the Lions scored 26 points and had 486 total yards against the Raiders, scored 41 points and had 533 yards against the Chargers, scored 31 points and had 338 yards against the Bears and scored 22 points and had 464 yards against the Packers.  They are pretty much fully healthy on offense and showing how good they can be when that's the case.

But the Lions have been a disaster on defense over the last three weeks.  They have allowed 31.0 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing the Bears, Packers and Chargers, so it's not like they have faced any elite offenses.  They lost LB Alex Anzalone against the Packers and he is doubtful to play Sunday.  Even the New Orleans Saints are going to hang a big number on the Lions this week.

Injuries have really decimated this New Orleans defense.  They were already without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore, then they lost DE Cameron Jordan last week against the Falcons and he is their best defensive lineman.  Jordan is very questionable to play in this game after not practicing all week.  S Marcus Maye and LB Pete Werner have both been ruled out as well.

The Saints allowed 27 points and 388 total yards to a mediocre Vikings offense and 24 points and 396 total yards to a mediocre Falcons offense in their last two games.  They have now allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five games overall with the lone exception coming against the Bears, who turned it over five times or would have scored more.

The OVER is 6-2 in Detroit's last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of hose eight games.  The OVER is 3-2 in Saints last five games overall with at least 39 combined points in all five, and 46 or more combined points in three of the five.  It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in New Orleans.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -7

FREE TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.

The Dallas Cowboys are bullies.  They beat up on bad teams and cannot seem to get over the hump against good teams.  While the Seattle Seahawks are 6-5 this season and some would consider them a good team, I consider them a bad team in their current form and another team that the Cowboys are going to beat up on.

The Cowboys are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS this season with a ridiculous seven wins by 20 points or more.  That includes 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season where they are scoring 41.0 points per game and allowing just 12.0 points per game, outscoring opponents by 29.0 points per game.

The Cowboys just blasted the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving Night while the Seahawks were losing 31-13 at home to the 49ers despite getting a Pick 6 in that game for their lone touchdown.  Their offense didn't score and has been broken the last two weeks, also managing just 16 points in a loss to the Rams.  They have a recent common opponent in the Commanders.  While the Cowboys won by 35, the Seahawks needed a last-second FG to beat Washington three weeks ago.

The Cowboys won't be taking the Seahawks lightly because they know there's a good chance that if they win this game and the Eagles lose to the 49ers this week, they'll be playing the Eagles for first place in the NFC East next week.  The Seahawks have struggled when they have stepped up in class recently with a 37-3 loss at Baltimore and that 31-13 loss to San Francisco.  Dallas is just a notch below those two teams, but it's close.

Geno Smith isn't healthy and is a below average QB as it is, and he and the Seahawks will get exposed again this week.  Smith averages under 4 yards per attempt against man-to-man defense and over 8 yards per attempt against zone this season.  Dallas runs as much man-to-man defense as any team in the NFL.

Dallas is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS as a favorite this season.  Dak Prescott is 30-11-1 ATS in his last 42 starts as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a division game, so they don't let down in these spots.  Seattle is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of the season.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Bears/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5

The Chicago Bears just got Justin Fields back last week and he makes all the difference for them.  They blew a double-digit lead in the final four minutes to the Lions in a 26-31 defeat as 8-point underdogs on the road.  The fact that they took the Lions to the wire says all you need to know about this team's potential.

Fields went 16-of-23 passing for 169 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 104 yards on 18 attempts.  He is so dynamic with his ability to run, and he has formed a great chemistry with DJ Moore on the outside.  The Bears will have no problem getting back up off the mat from that tough loss to the Lions considering this is a Monday Night Football game on National TV against another division opponnent in the Bears.

But the biggest reason the Bears are undervalued right now is their improvement on defense over the last several weeks.  They have held four of their last seven opponents to 20 points or fewer.  They are allowing just 276.5 yards per game in their last six games, which would rate as one of the top defenses in the entire NFL.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings.  They just had their 5-game winning streak come to an end with a 1-point loss at Denver.  It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they controlled the game most the way but blew it late.  The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, so you are definitely paying a tax on them now.

The Bears want revenge from a 19-13 home loss to the Vikings on October 15th in their first meeting this season.  Fields got injured in that game which made all the difference.  The Bears held the Vikings to just 220 total yards and they still nearly pulled off the upset even with Tyson Bageant having to come in and turning it over three times.

The Bears are probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report.  I always look to back healthy teams late in the season and fade teams with a ton of injuries.  It's rare for a team to be as healthy as the Bears are this late in the year.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* Ravens/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -4

The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL if it's not the San Francisco 49ers.  Both have the most elite numbers in the NFL right now.  The Ravens' last seven losses with Lamar Jackson at QB they had a 4th quarter lead and were 75% or better to win the game.  They could be on a crazy unbeaten streak if not for some bad variance late in games.

The down to down success is the most predictable, and the Ravens are thriving this season.  They average 27.6 points per game, 366.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play while allowing just 16.1 points per game, 273.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play this season.

The Chargers have a decent offense with Justin Herbert, but he is missing several key weapons and drops have been an issue for his receivers.  Herbert is forced every week to try and win shootouts because the defense just cannot get stops.  The Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing 23.8 points per game, 393.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 31st in the NFL in total defense and 29th in yards per play allowed.

We've seen what the Chargers are defensively when they face a legit offense, like two weeks ago when they allowed 41 points and 533 total yards to the Lions.  The Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 earlier this season.  Even last week the Chargers allowed the Packers to have a break out offensive performance with 397 total yards against them.  The Packers were a previously dead offense but got right against the Chargers.  

The Ravens can name their number against this pitiful Chargers defense.  They are even worse off now after losing arguably their most important defensive player in Joey Bosa to a foot injury against the Packers.  He is doubtful to play this week.  The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games now, and if they get to 31 here they are going to cover this 4-point spread.  They are going to get to 31 if not more.

The Chargers have zero home-field advantage and there will likely be more Ravens fans attending this game than Chargers fans.  The Ravens also have the rest advantage after playing the Bengals on Thursday, so they have three extra days to rest and prepare for the Chargers.  John Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. a marginal losing team that wins 40-49% of their games as the coach of Baltimore.  Bet the Ravens Sunday night.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Texans OVER 45.5

The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team.  CJ Stroud is one of the best rookie QB's we've ever seen and he's living up to it week after week.  Let's look at their last three weeks.  They scored 39 points and had 496 total yards against the Bucs, scored 30 points and had 544 total yards against the Bengals and then they had 419 total yards against the Cardinals last week and would have scored more if not for 3 INT from Stroud inside the Arizona 25-yard line.

But because that game stayed under the total against the Cardinals when it should have gone way over after 31 combined points at halftime, we are getting great value with the OVER this week against the Jaguars.  Not one of those passes by Stroud that were intercepted were bad throws, they were mostly just bad breaks off receivers' hands.  He had only thrown 2 INT all season up to that point.  RB Devin Singletary has rushed for over 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career.  This Houston offense is humming.

The Jaguars just put together their best offensive performance of the season last week against a very good Tennessee defense.  They had 34 points and 389 total yards as Trevor Lawrence totaled four touchdowns passing and rushing.  The Jaguars are primed for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Houston defense that gave up 37 points to a bad Bucs offense and 27 points to the Bengals.  The Texans are pretty banged up defensively right now.

In their first meeting this season. Houston beat Jacksonville 37-17 for 54 combined points that easily topped this 45.5-point total.  The Texans had 366 total yards and took their foot off the gas in the 2H with it wrapped up.  The Jaguars had 404 total yards and deserved to score more than they did.  They will have similar success moving the football in the rematch.

Doug Pederson is 9-1 OVER in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach.  I love the OVER in this matchup of two teams that are hitting their stride on offense right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -120

I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off their bye week following a win over the Patriots in Germany that got them to 5-5 on the season and very much in the playoff hunt.  They will come out of the bye rested, ready to go and highly motivated to make the playoffs.

Bye weeks are even more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Shane Steichen.  The players on this team love this guy because he is a great offensive mind, and I expect the Colts to have plenty of new wrinkles to unleash on the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.

The Bucs had their bye back on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  They are starting to run out of gas and the injuries are starting to pile up.  They lost 27-14 at San Francisco last week and now have a lot of traveling to do prior to facing the Colts.  They travel from San Francisco back to Tampa and then up to Indianapolis.  They won't be nearly as prepared as the Colts for this one.

The injuries are really piling up on defense for the Bucs.  They lost three starters that exited the game against the 49ers and didn't return last week.  That includes LB Lavonte David, CB Jamel Dean and CB Carlton Davis III.  The Colts should feast on this short-handed defense similar to what CJ Stroud and the Texans did to them and Brock Purdy did to them.  Purdy went 21-of-25 passing for 305 yards while Stroud went 30-of-42 passing for 443 yards on the Bucs.

The Colts have gotten healthier on defense and are playing better holding their last two opponents to an average 9.5 points per game.  They should be even healthier coming out of the bye.  Now they get to face one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Bucs, who are scoring 19.2 points per game, averaging 304.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Bucs rank 23rd in scoring, 22nd in total offense and 22nd in yards per play.  They allow 6.0 yards per play on defense, so they are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play and legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Colts are undervalued right now because nobody believes they deserve to be 5-5 and .500 on the season.  But the numbers clearly tell a different story.  The Colts average 5.4 yards per play on offense and 5.4 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even in yards per play margin.  YPP is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is, and the Colts have been 0.9 YPP better than the Bucs this season.  We're getting the better team in the much better stop off the bye as basically a PK at home.  Sign me up.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins -6.5

This was a good early grab on the Dolphins -6.5 as soon as this line came out on Sunday.  It is a 25* at -7 or better, a 20* at -7.5 to -9.5 and a 15* at -10 or worse at this point.  I already expected this line to climb, but then the Jets announced they were going to start Tim Boyle over Zach Wilson on Monday, and it shot up to -9.5 and -10 in some places.

The Jets are desperate at this point because they have scored a total of 9 offensive touchdowns in 10 games.  They know they should have traded for a QB because they just don't have any good options on the roster.  Boyle is actually a downgrade from Zach Wilson.  Boyle had a 1-to-13 TD/INT ratio at UConn, an 11-to-13 TD/INT ratio at Eastern Kentucky and currently has a 3-to-8 TD/INT ratio in the NFL to this point.  That's 17 TD and 32 INT in his career dating back to college.

It's safe to say Boyle and this Jets offense won't be able to keep up with Miami's No. 1 ranked offensive in the entire NFL.  The Dolphins are scoring 30.5 points per game, averaging 434 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  The Chiefs and Raiders held them in check the last two weeks, which is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But the Chiefs are holding everyone in check, and the Dolphins shot themselves in the foot against the Raiders.  They didn't have to punt on any of their first nine possessions of that game and left a ton of points on the board with three turnovers and getting stopped on downs.  The Raiders didn't stop them as they had 422 total yards.

But while this Miami offense has hit the skids in recent weeks, this Miami defense has picked up the slack.  Jalen Ramsey already has three interceptions in two games since returning from injury.  They held the Chiefs to 14 points and 267 yards and the Raiders to 13 points and 296 yards.  Vic Fangio now has all the players in place that he needs to run his aggressive, proven scheme.  Don't be surprised if Miami's defense scores for us in this one against Boyle.

No question the Jets have a great defense, but they are getting tired from being on the field too much.  I think we saw a little quit in them last week in their 32-6 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 393 total yards to the Bills in that contest.  Now they have to come back on a short week and are a tired defense, and a tired team in general playing for a 5th consecutive week.  The Dolphins had their bye prior to facing the Raiders last week so they should still be very fresh, which is a huge advantage on this short week.

New York head coach Robert Saleh is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on a short week as the head coach of the Jets.  New York is 11-22 ATS in its last 33 vs AFC East opponents.  Tua is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more.  Bet the Dolphins Friday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West BAILOUT on San Francisco -4.5

The San Francisco 49ers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS when healthy this season and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS when not healthy.  By healthy I mean having both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on the field at the same time.  They came out of the bye healthy, and the offense has been humming again.

The 49ers beat the Jaguars 34-3 and hung 437 total yards on a very good Jacksonville defense out of the bye.  They followed it up with a 27-14 win over the Bucs last week and had 420 total yards in the win.  Brock Purdy has been flawless to prove his doubters wrong, and it will continue this week against the Seattle Seahawks.

The 49ers will be the fresher team because they recently had a bye.  The Seahawks are gassed because they had their bye on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week.  What makes them even more gassed is just how many of their games have gone down to the wire since the bye.  Four of their last six games have been decided by 4 points or less.  That includes their 29-26 win over Washington on a last-second FG, and their 17-16 loss to the Rams last week where they missed a last-second FG that would have won it.  I don't trust them from a physical or mental state on this short week.

The 49ers have had no problem covering against the Seahawks in recent meetings.  They won 27-7 in their first meeting last year, 21-13 in their 2nd meeting last year, and 41-23 in the playoffs last year.  They dominated the box score in all three games.  They averaged 419 yards per game and allowed just 275 yards per game to the Seahawks, outgaining them by 144 yards per game.  They have outgained them by at least 104 yards in all three meetings.

The Seahawks are getting outgained by 19 yards per game on the season and are fortunate to be 6-4.  The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 84 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.  The are elite and the best team in the NFL in my opinion.  The other team right alongside them is the Ravens, and the Seahawks were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore a few weeks ago.  They gave up 515 yards to the Ravens and were held to 151, getting outgained by a whopping 366 yards.

Seattle QB Geno Smith hurt his arm and was knocked out of the game against the Rams.  He did come back in for the final drive and may play in this one, but he won't be 100%.  RB Kennetch Walker is doubtful for this one.  These injuries are starting to pile up again for the Seahawks, and they stand no chance of being competitive with the 49ers at anything less than full strength.

Road favorites are 24-1 SU & 19-6 ATS in their last 25 tries on Thanksgiving Day.  Seattle is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the 2nd half of the season.  San Francisco is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. division opponents.  Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after rushing for 75 or fewer yards last game.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Commanders/Cowboys NFC Afternoon FEAST on OVER 46

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are very pass-happy and up-tempo on offense and they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  That's an OVER bettors' dream in the NFL, and we'll play this game accordingly.

The Commanders are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall, and their game against the Patriots that stayed under should have went over.  They had 37 combined points with a total of 40.5 with 1:52 remaining in the 3rd quarter.  Neither team scored again.

The Commanders lost 31-38 to Philadelphia for 69 combined points.  They had 472 total yards against the Eagles.  They had 432 total yards against the Patriots.  The lost to the Seahawks 29-26 for 55 combined points and gave up 489 total yards to the Seahawks.  Then last week they lost 31-19 to the Giants for 50 combined points.  That's Tommy Devito and the Giants, who they allowed 31 points to.  But they also had 403 total yards in the loss and probably should have scored a lot more if they didn't turn it over six times.

The Cowboys are rolling offensively.  In their last four games, they had 43 points against the Rams, 406 total yards against the Eagles, 49 points against the Giants and 33 points against the Panthers.  They will hang another big number on what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Commanders in their current form.  Their defense has struggled when they have actually been tested.  They gave up 42 points and 421 total yards to the 49ers and 28 points to the Eagles.  They will get tested by Sam Howell and this underrated Washington offense.

Ron Rivera is 20-2 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or more as a head coach.  Rivera is 11-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as a head coach.  Rivera is 9-0 OVER in road games after losing six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach.  Rivera is 8-0 OVER in road games vs. elite offensive teams that score 29 points or more as a head coach.  Mike McCarthy is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season as the head coach of Dallas.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL averaging 27.2 points per game, 399.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They have combined for 77 points with the Chargers and 57 points with the Bears in their last two games coming in.  This 44.5-point total is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.

The Lions are showing how scary good they can be offensively when healthy in recent weeks.  They put up 26 points and 486 total yards on the Raiders, 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers and 31 points on an improving Bears defense the last three weeks.  But their defense has shown a lot of holes lately.  They allowed 38 points and 421 total yards to the Chargers and 26 points and 334 total yards to the Bears.

The Packers are showing signs of life on offense in recent weeks.  They had 391 total yards against the Rams, 399 total yards against the Steelers and 397 total yards against the Chargers in their last three games.  They can get things going against this Detroit defense again, and their defense has been far from spectacular.  The Chargers should have scored a lot more points on them last week than they did, but they had a ton of drops.  They should have scored 30-plus points on the Packers.

Detroit beat Green Bay 34-20 in the first meeting this season for 54 combined points.  That game was in Green Bay outdoors in tougher conditions.  This game will be indoors, and both offenses will thrive in the dome in Detroit.  The Packers are likely losing their most important defender in De'Vondre Campbell for this one.  They could also be without Jaire Alexander.

Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a win by 6 points or less.  Jordan Love is going to have to throw the ball a ton to try and keep up with this Detroit offense that is scoring 30.0 points per game at home this season.  They'll likely have to abandon the run early in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Eagles/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +3

The Philadelphia Eagles want revenge from their 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.  They got some bad whistles in that game and deserved to win.  They outgained the Chiefs 417 to 340, or by 77 total yards.  It was probably Jalen Hurts' best game of his career to boot, and you know he wants some revenge here.

But a big reason I like the Eagles here is the weather report.  There is a 75% chance of rain with 15-20 MPH winds expected.  So it's going to favor the team that runs the football better.  Well, the Eagles are the better running team with the better run defense.  The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run and haven't been able to establish a consistent rushing attack.

The Eagles rank 8th in rushing at 129.7 yards per game while the Chiefs rank 19th at 103.8 yards per game.  The Eagles are 1st in the NFL at stopping the run allowing 66.3 yards per game, while the Chiefs are 17th at 112.2 yards per game allowed.  The Eagles are also 5th allowing just 3.7 yards per carry while the Chiefs are 29th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

This Kansas City offense is really broken this season.  They have managed 14 points or fewer in three of their last four games with the 21 they scored on the Dolphins coming with an asterisk because 7 of those came from a defensive touchdown.  The Eagles will focus on stopping Travic Kelce just like everyone else has recently, and that formula has really worked in stopping the Chiefs because Mahomes doesn't trust his other receivers.

The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games.  Plays against home favorites (Kansas City) - after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in three consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  They are coming off their bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season.  QB Matthew Stafford will return from injury, as will LB ERnest Jones and RT Rob Havenstein.  The Rams are primed for a big effort to try and get back into the playoff hunt.  

I love backing teams that are pissed off going into their bye week because they usually take it more seriously and make it a chance to improve instead of relax.  It worked for the 49ers last week and I was all over them coming off three straight losses going into their bye.  They crushed the Jaguars 34-3.  The Rams are off three consecutive losses as well and will crush the Seahawks for the 2nd time this season.

The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-13 on the road in the season opener.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Rams outgained the Seahawks 426 to 180, or by 246 total yards.  And the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp in that game.  The Rams simply own the Seahawks, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and a couple of those include close losses last season when they didn't have Stafford.  They have dominated the Seahawks with a healthy Stafford or Jared Goff.  Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll.

I question how much the Seahawks have left in the tank here.  They have played five consecutive weeks and were in dog fights in four of those five games.  They are coming off a 29-26 home win over the Washington Commanders needing a last-second FG to beat them.  They needed a last-second TD to beat the Browns and PJ Walker three weeks ago, and they were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore two weeks ago.

The Seahawks are 6-3 this season but have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL.  The Rams have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL.  The win in Week 2 over the Lions was legit, but the Seahawks' other five wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, Commanders and the Browns with Walker.  When they have stepped up in class they have struggled.

Seattle is actually getting outgained on the season by 23 yards per game, so their 6-3 record is pretty fraudulent.  They have also been outscored on the season.  I think they are getting too much respect here being favored on the road, and I'll gladly back the home dog that I believe to be the better team with a massive rest and preparation advantage.  Plus, the Rams own the Seahawks.  Seattle could easily be looking ahead to the game against San Francisco on Thanksgiving that will likely decide the division.  They could try and conserve some energy for that contest instead, while the Rams will be 'all in' for a win here.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Bears/Lions OVER 46

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team when playing in a controlled environment like their dome and on turf.  They are scoring 26.8 points per game and averaging 406.4 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play as one of the top offenses in the NFL.  They are going to hang a big number on the Chicago Bears to lead the way in cashing this OVER.

We saw what this Detroit offense could do when fully healthy at the skill positions last week as they hung 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers.  But they were life and death with the Chargers because their defense couldn't get a stop, allowing 38 points in a game that saw 77 combined points last week.  The Bears will have success against their defense as well.

Chicago gets Justin Fields back at QB this week and he's a dead nuts OVER QB.  They could also have RB Khalil Herbert back this week, tho D'Onta Foreman has been just fine in his place.  They have been without Fields for the past 4.5 games and their offense has struggled without him.  Prior to that, they scored 40 points and hung 451 total yards on the Commanders after scoring 28 points with 471 yards against the Broncos the game prior.

This was a very high-scoring series last year with the Bears and Lions combining for 61 and 51 points in their two meetings.  It will be more of the same in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Raiders/Dolphins OVER 47.5

The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 31.7 points per game, 435.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this season.  The OVER is 3-1 in Dolphins four home games this season with all four seeing 47 or more combined points, and that even includes games against three of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Giants, Panthers and Patriots.  Miami home games are averaging 62.0 combined points per game this season.

The Dolphins are going to hang a big number on the Raiders today to lead the way to us cashing the OVER.  Aiden O'Connell seems like an OVER QB for the Raiders much more so than Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer.  O'Connell is more of a gunslinger and he will be unleashed in this game Sunday.  He won't have the benefit of trying to protect a lead like he has the last two weeks.

The Raiders played the Giants and Tommy DeVito and the Jets and Zach Wilson the last two weeks.  The last time they played a legit offense was the game prior when they gave up 486 total yards to the Lions.  They will have to play hurry-up on offense this week to try and keep up with the Dolphins while trailing.  I think they can score enough points to help contribute to us cashing this OVER, plus O'Connell is going to make some mistakes and set up short fields and easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins as well.

Miami is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games after going under the total in its previous game.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Dolphins.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins -12

I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week.  They are coming off their bye week following a tough loss to the Chiefs in Germany in a game they proved they belonged with the top teams in this league finally.  They outgained the Chiefs and held them to just 267 total yards, but the difference was a fluky fumble that was returned for a TD in a 7-point victory by the Chiefs.

The Dolphins have struggled against the top teams in the NFL, but they have beaten up on everyone else, especially at home.  The Dolphins are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season with all four wins coming by 14 points or more.  They are scoring 43.5 points per game, averaging 516 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play at home while allowing just 18.5 points per game, 286 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game, outgaining them by 230 yards per game and 2.9 yards per play at home.

The Raiders had the good fortune of getting to face Tommy DeVito and the Giants and Zach Wilson and the Jets in the two games since Antonio Pierce took over at head coach.  This team still isn't very good, and they will get their doors blown off this week.  They were outgained by the Jets 365 to 274, or by 91 total yards and didn't deserve to win that game.  Their luck runs out this week.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on defense and just shut down the Chiefs.  They are a legit good defensive team when healthy.  They are also expected to get RB De'Von Achane back from injury, and they have arguably the best rushing attack in the NFL when he and Mostert are healthy together.  The Dolphins are going to score at will on the Raiders, who are much worse defensively than they get credit for.

Prior to facing the Jets and Giants, the Raiders gave up 486 total yards to the Lions and then 30 points to Tyson Bageant and the Bears the game prior.  The Dolphins are even more potent on offense than the Lions and will likely exceed 35 points and 500 total yards in this one.  Las Vegas is going to have to unleash Aiden O'Connell in this one, and it's going to lead to mistakes from the rookie and easy points and short fields for the Dolphins.

Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games with a total of 45.5 or higher.  Tua is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more as a starting QB.  The Raiders are 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games following an upset win as a home underdog.  The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Texans OVER 46.5

The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They went for 76 combined points two weeks ago with the Tampa Bay Bucs and 57 combined points with the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  Their offense has done the heavy lifting as they have won both of those games while putting up gaudy offensive numbers.

The Texans put up 496 total yards on a very good Tampa Bay defense and 544 total yards on Cincinnati's defense last week.  CJ Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt.  The Texans have shifted offensive philosophy and let Stroud throw the ball downfield a lot more the last two weeks, and it has produced tremendous results.  It's not going to stop now.

I was impressed with how well Kyler Murray played in his first game action in a year last week.  He led the Cardinals to 352 total yards and 25 points against the Falcons in a last-second win last week.  Murray had a key scramble for a first down on 3rd and 10 on that game-winning drive that shows he's not scared to run.  He is much more dynamic when that's the case.

Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired.  The Cardinals are giving up 26.3 points per game while the Texans are allowing 21.3 points per game.  The Texans in particular have a ton of injuries on defense right now which is forcing them to win shootouts.  I mean they gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in their last home game, which is all you need to know about the state of their defense.  Arizona has allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston.  I like backing OVERS in non-conference games because these teams just aren't familiar with one another, and it's hard to prepare for one another in a week's time.  Stroud and Murray are in line for a shootout Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -3

I was able to grab an early -3 number on the Baltimore Ravens expecting this line to move up.  They have taken money every week and for good reason.  They are arguably the best team in the entire NFL when you look at their numbers.  I would still play the Ravens as a 20* up to -4.

Baltimore is averaging 27.0 points per game, 362.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 15.7 points pre game, 273.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game and outgaining them by 89 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play, which is the best YPP differential in the NFL.

Let's compare those numbers to Cincinnati.  The Bengals are scoring 20.2 points per game, averaging 301.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense while allowing 21.3 points per game, 383.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outscored by 1.1 points per game, which is very fortunate when you consider they are getting outgained by 82 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  That's one of the worst YPP differentials in the NFL.

While the Bengals have shown some life offensively in recent weeks, their defense is absolutely atrocious this season and the biggest reason they aren't as good as they have been the past couple seasons.  The Bengals allowed 544 total yards to the Texans last week with 188 on the ground to a backup RB and 356 through the air.

Making matters worse for the Bengals right now is injuries to key players.  They just lost DE Sam Hubbard to an ankle injury in that loss to Houston and they were already without WR Tee Higgins, who is going to be out again Thursday on a short week.  DE Trey Hendrickson suffered a hyperextended knee on the final play against Houston, and he is very questionable to play and won't be 100% if he does.

While Cincinnati was fortunate to even have a chance to win against Houston last week, Baltimore is going to be pissed off after blowing a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Browns.  Lamar Jackson had a pass tipped that was returned for a TD, so it was very fluky.  Give Cleveland and Deshaun Watson credit for what they were able to do in coming back.  I think the Ravens were caught looking ahead to this game.  

Amazingly, each of Baltimore's last seven losses with Lamar Jackson on the field, they had a 75% chance of winning or better in the 4th quarter.  That's how close they have been to absolute perfection over the last two seasons.  They will be pissed off after blowing another one, and they haven't forgotten that the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs last year, albeit without Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens got their initial revenge with a 27-24 road win as 3-point underdogs at Cincinnati in their first meeting this season on September 17th.  The Ravens were banged up back then and missing several key players that has since returned.  That was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Baltimore had a 415 to 282 advantage in total yards, but the Bengals got a long punt return TD from Charlie Jones that kept them closer than they deserved to be.  Not only did the Ravens lose in the playoffs to the Bengals, they also lost in Week 18 to them.  They would love to pay back that double-revenge by winning both regular season meetings this season and crushing Cincinnati's playoff hopes.

Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Finally, the Bengals are 1-23 SU in their last 24 road games at night.  They have lost 13 consecutive road night games with their last win coming at Philadelphia in 2012.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

20* Broncos/Bills ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +7.5

These are two teams headed in opposite directions.  There's clearly value with the team trending up in the Denver Broncos, especially when you consider their massive rest advantage.  They are coming off a bye week and as healthy as they have been all season.  The Bills are coming off a Sunday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals and will be playing for a 10th consecutive week.

The Bills are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have hit the skids since losing three of their best defensive players in a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in London in which they allowed 474 total yards.  They were life and death with Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, needed two stops from the 1-yard line to seal a 14-9 home win as 15.5-point favorites.  They lost outright to the Patriots 29-25 as 7.5-point road favorites and allowed Mac Jones to look like a star.  They had to defend a hail mary in a 24-18 win as 10-point home favorites over the hapless Bucs.  And last week they were never really in the game in a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati where they allowed 397 yards.

The Broncos are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games overall.  They beat the Packers 19-17 at home and outgained them.  Then they pulled the 24-9 upset at home over the Kansas City Chiefs as 7-point dogs.  They held to the Chiefs to 19 points the game prior, and their defense getting healthy and living up to its potential is the reason for the turnaround.  They have allowed just 15.0 points per game in their last three games despite facing the Chiefs twice.  That's mighty impressive.

I'll gladly side with the better defense in this one catching 7.5 points to the Bills.  Buffalo lost another starter in S Micah Hyde in that loss to the Bengals.  LB Terrel Bernard remains in concussion protocol.  This Denver offense will have plenty of new wrinkles coming out of the bye under Sean Payton and is primed for one of their best performances of the season against this injury-ravaged Bills defense.  Buffalo QB Josh Allen is nursing a shoulder injury that has made him the 2nd-least accurate passer in the NFL on deep throws since the injury.

Denver is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games when playing on two weeks' rest.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Buffalo) - after two consecutive games where they forced zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers last game are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Sean Payton is 50-31 ATS as an underdog as a head coach.  Payton is 45-25 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins as a head coach.  The Bills are getting too much respect for the team they were in the past, not the team they currently are.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons PK

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Falcons.  They are 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS this season with so many losses in close games.  But Taylor Heineke has given this offense a spark the last two weeks and I think they are better off with him moving forward.

Heineke replaced Desmond Ridder midway through the Tennessee game and nearly led them to a comeback, throwing for 175 yards and a touchdown on only 21 attempts.  He then threw for 268 yards and another touchdown against the Vikings last week and led them to 28 points.  He led what looked to be the game-winning TD drive with two minutes left to take a 28-24 lead, but the defense couldn't hold it.

I think everything comes together for the Falcons this week.  They are just one game back of the Saints in the NFC South Division with a lot to play for.  They won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly, especially coming off two consecutive losses.  Leading receiver Drake London is expected to return this week after missing last week.  Heineke will be even better with him on the field as another weapon.

But this is as much of a fade of Arizona as anything.  The Cardinals are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with five losses by double-digits.  They couldn't win with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, and Kyler Murray won't be an upgrade in his first start back from a torn ACL.  He won't be the old Kyler Murray where he was looking to run, and he isn't exactly the best pocket passer.

Arizona's troubles go much deeper than at quarterback.  They've been without RB James Conner, RB Emari Demercado and WR Michael Wilson.  They have three starters on the offensive line that are questionable as this has just been a mash unit this season.  Murray isn't going to have much time behind this offensive line.  Arizona has a leaky defense that allows 26.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

Atlanta is one of those teams that has better numbers than their record would indicate which is another reason we can 'buy low' on them in the second half of the season.  They are outgaining opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.  Arizona is getting outgained by 62 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play to compare.  We are getting the Falcons cheap here because of the Kyler Murray news.  It won't make a difference in his first game back.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions ML -120

The Detroit Lions are as healthy as they have been all season.  They are coming out of their bye week and primed for a big performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend.  They are the better team in this matchup, so getting -120 on the money line on the opener Sunday night was an absolute steal.

The Lions are expected to get RB David Montgomery back from injury this week.  They are also expected to get two starting offensive linemen back this week.  It's not like they were hurting going into the bye, crushing the Raiders 26-14 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They outgained the Raiders 486 to 157, or by 331 total yards.

The Lions are an elite team but aren't getting treated like one.  They belong up there with the 49ers, Chiefs and Ravens of the world.  The Lions are outgaining opponents by 94 yards per game on the season and 0.5 yards per play.  Let's compare that to the Chargers, who are actually getting outgained by 35 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, and it's easy to see why I'm on the Lions.

The Chargers are getting respect here because of their 27-6 win over the Jets on Monday Night Football.  That was such a misleading final.  The Jets held them to just 191 total yards yet lost by 21.  They gave up an 87-yard punt return TD to the Chargers for the first score of the game and were behind the eight ball the rest of the way, finishing -3 in turnovers.

This Chargers offense has been held to 17 points by the Cowboys, 17 points by the Chiefs and then 191 yards by the Jets in three of their last four games.  Their offense is broken right now.  They are without two of their top three receivers in Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, and they are so easy to stop now because teams can key in on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler without having to worry about those other two.  The Chargers don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lions in this one, and the Lions have the much better defense.

Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a home win.  The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in Weeks 10 through 13.  Detroit is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after winning two of its last three games.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor pass defenses allowing 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  These four trends combined for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Lions.  Bet the Lions on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Browns/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -6.5

The Baltimore Ravens have gotten healthy and are currently the best team in the NFL with the way they are playing.  They should be 9-0 but instead are 7-2 as they gave two games away against the Colts and Steelers earlier this season when they weren't healthy.  What they have done their last four games when healthy has been mighty impressive.

Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-16 in London and outgained the Titans 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards.  They beat the Lions 38-6 at home and outgained the Lions 503 to 337, or by 166 total yards.  They beat Arizona 31-24 on the road and that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led by 17 in the 4th quarter.  They beat Seattle 37-3 and outgained the Seahawks 515 to 151, or by 364 total yards.

This run has Baltimore ranked as the 3rd-best team in DVOA in NFL history through nine games.  The Ravens average 369 yards per game and 5.9 per play on offense and allow 263 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 106 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.  They are scoring 26.6 points per game and allowing 13.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game.

The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 27-0 win over Arizona which is giving them more respect than they deserve.  Arizona started 3rd stringer Clayton Tune in that game and seemed to purposely try to lose it.  Deshaun Watson made his return from injury in that game and still didn't look right, but fortunately it didn't matter because the Cardinals didn't have a pulse on offense.  It will matter this week.

It also matters that Watson will be playing behind an offensive line that is missing both starting tackles in Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis Jr.  Now backup RT Dawand Jones has been ruled out.  Watson is going to have his hands full with this offensive line up against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL that the Ravens deploy.

I think this Cleveland defense is overrated, too.  They allowed 24 points and 362 total yards to the Seahawks and 38 points and 456 total yards to the Colts in their two games prior to facing the hapless Cardinals.  We saw what the Ravens did to both of those teams holding the Colts to 19 points at the end of regulation, then holding the Seahawks to 3 points and 151 total yards last week.

The Ravens beat the Browns 28-3 on the road in their first meeting this season and had no problem scoring on them.  The Ravens were also missing five defensive starters in that game.  I know it was DTR instead of Watson, but I just don't think it's going to make a difference because Watson isn't right.  It's going to be more of the same in the rematch with another blowout victory in Baltimore's favor.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points as the coach of Cleveland.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Baltimore.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* 49ers/Jaguars Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco ML -135

I love backing motivated teams off a bye week and fading fat and happy teams off a bye week.  I get the best of both worlds here making the 49ers a very strong play to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars on the Money Line.

The 49ers are pissed off following three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won.  They lost by 2 at Cleveland, by 5 at Minnesota and by 14 at home to Cincinnati despite outgaining them by 60 yards and racking up 460 yards of offense in a misleading final.

A big reason for the 49ers' struggles were the injuries suffered in the loss to Cleveland.  But now they are healthy out of the bye and expected to get both OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel back from injury.  Williams is arguably the best tackle in the NFL protecting Brock Purdy's blind side.  Samuel just opens up the entire offense with his ability to catch short passes and take it the distance.  Plus, the 49ers get better defensively with the trade for Chase Young to pair him up with former Ohio State teammate Nick Bosa on the defensive line.

The Jaguars didn't need a bye because they were building up huge momentum going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games going into the bye.  Now they have lost that momentum and are fat and happy and not as motivated as the 49ers will be.  Plus, this five-game winning streak comes with some asterisks as it was a very soft schedule.

The Jaguars beat the Falcons in London then beat the Bills in London, who lost three defensive starters early in that game that changed the complexion of it.  Then they beat the Colts despite only gaining 233 yards as the Colts handed it to them with four turnovers.  They went on the road and beat the Saints by 7 as the Saints dropped a wide open TD pass in the final seconds that would have tied it.  Then they beat the hapless Steelers, who have been outgained in every single game this season.

This is a big step up in class for the Jaguars to say the least.  It's similar to when they faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and lost 17-9.  Their offense was held to 271 total yards by the Chiefs while giving up 399 yards.  The 49ers are the real contenders of these two teams, and that will show on the field Sunday.  It also shows up in the numbers.

The 49ers average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.2 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  The Jaguars are actually getting outgained on the season and outgained by 0.1 yards per play as well, gaining 5.2 on offense and allowing 5.3 on defense.  I have the 49ers among the elite and the Jaguars in the middle of the pack.  Jacksonville has very little home-field advantage compared to the rest of the NFL, too.

San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a non-conference game.  Jacksonville is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games vs. NFC West opponents.  Plays on road teams (San Francisco) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a good team winning 60-75% of their games in the second half of the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Francisco) - after three or more consecutive ATS losses against an opponent off two or more consecutive ATS wins are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  I grabbed the 49ers on the Money Line on the opener anticipating this line would move.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Colts/Patriots AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts have a pulse now at 4-5 after beating the Carolina Panthers 27-13 on the road last week to end a three-game losing streak against a tough schedule of the Jaguars, Browns and Saints.  They played all three of those teams tough when you look at the box score, and they did so short-handed.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Colts as they head to Germany to face the hapless New England Patriots.  Teams have been able to run on them without DT Grover Stewart and especially without LB Zaire Franklin, the team's leading tackler with 102 tackles on the season, which is 40 more than 2nd place.  Franklin returns to the lineup this week and will help shut down this New England rushing attack.

The Patriots are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and were fortunate to escape with both of the wins they have.  They have a dreadful offense averaging just 15.0 points per game while the Colts average 25.8 points per game and are the only NFL team to score at least 20 points in every game.  The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for ranking in the top half of the league in most metrics.  The Patriots started out great defensively, but injuries have them falling off a cliff of late allowing 25 points to Buffalo, 31 points to Miami and 20 points and 432 total yards to Washington in their last three games.

The Patriots will be without CB JC Jackson and OT Trent Brown.  They are lacking playmakers at receiver and will be without Davante Parker and Kendrick Bourne.  Demario Douglas is also banged up and questionable.  They are in a really sad state offensively right now with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their go-to receiver.  He can't get separation any more.  Mac Jones has nobody to throw to, and when he does throw he makes terrible decisions and cannot be trusted.

Given the state of both of these teams with the Colts trending up and the Patriots trending down, the Colts should be the favorites here on a neutral field, so getting them at a PK is a gift.  Indianapolis is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this season including an upset of the Baltimore Ravens.  The Colts are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games after scoring at least 25 points in three consecutive games.  Indianapolis is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game.  Mac Jones is 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS as an underdog in his career.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Panthers/Bears NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5

The Carolina Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and 32nd at 4.5 yards per play.  They aren't going to be able to score much on this improving Chicago Bears defense.

The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games.  They held the Saints to 301 total yards last week in a fraudulent final as they were -5 in turnovers in a 24-17 loss.  Their defense single-handedly kept them in that game as their offense turned it over in their own territory time and time again.

The Bears have scored 13, 13 and 17 points in three of their four games with Tyson Bagent at quarterback.  He is likely to get the start again Thursday.  He'll be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game.  The Panthers held the Colts to just 208 total yards last week after holding the Texans to just 229 total yards the week prior.  Those are two offenses that were tearing it up previously to facing Carolina.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Carolina) - after losing six or seven of their last eight games, when playing on Thursday night are 21-3 (87.5%) since 1983.  Primetime UNDERS have been absolutely money this season.  They are 22-7 this season and 62-29 over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Panthers/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago -3

I just added the Chicago Bears -3 Thursday morning as I have been leaning that way all week.  But the line ballooned to -4 with the chance that Justin Fields may return at QB.  Once he was announced out, it got back down to -3 and the value is there to pull the trigger on the Bears.

This Bears team is trending in the right direction even with Tyson Bagent at QB.  They beat the Raiders 30-12 three weeks ago.  Their 30-13 loss to the Chargers was very misleading as they were only outgained by 57 yards.  And last week's loss to the Saints was also misleading as they lost 24-17 despite outgaining the Saints by 67 yards, but they were -5 in turnovers.  Now they are back home where they were last seen beating the Raiders by 18.

The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games.  They held the Saints to 301 yards last week.  Now they will be up against a Carolina Panthers team that has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Panthers rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 4.5 yards per play.  They aren't going to be able to score much against this improving Chicago defense.

But the biggest reason I added the Bears -3 this morning is the laundry list of injuries the Panthers are dealing with right now.  The Panthers are going to be without two of their best receivers in DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr.  Their best defensive player in LB Brian Burns is out after getting injured last week, as is starting CB CJ Henderson.  Starting FS Xavier Woods is questionable as is starting SS Vonn Bell.  The Panthers are an absolute mash unit right now with 21 players on the injury report compared to just 8 for Chicago.

The Panthers are 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in eight games this season with all seven losses by 3 points or more and six losses by 8 points or more.  Their lone win came at the buzzer on a short FG at home after their bye week.  They followed it up with a 27-13 home loss to the Colts last week, and I don't trust them to perform well here on a short week with all these injuries on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this season with all four losses coming by double-digits and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Bet the Bears Thursday.

20* Chargers/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on New York +3.5

The Los Angeles Chargers should not be 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Jets this week.  I have these teams power-rated similarly as average teams, so when adjusting for home-field advantage, the Jets should be favored.  Instead, we are getting +3.5 on the home team here which is tremendous value.

What more do the Jets have to do to get some respect? They are 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only loss during this stretch came by 3 points to Kansas City.  They upset Philadelphia outright as home underdogs.  They also upset Buffalo outright in the opener as home dogs.  If they can beat or play with all three of those teams at home, they can certainly beat or lose by 3 points or less to the Chargers.

What makes the Jets an average team is having one of the best defenses in the NFL coupled with a great rushing attack behind Breece Hall.  They got great news on the injury front this week as LT Mekhi Becton, G Laken Tomlinson and C Joe Tippmann all returned to practice and should be good to go.  They also opened the 21-day practice window on LT Duane Brown to return from injured reserve.  They are pretty much fully healthy defensively and will give the Chargers fits.

The Chargers are getting too much respect for their 30-13 home win over the Bears last week on Sunday Night Football in a prime time game.  They actually only outgained the Bears by 57 yards as it was closer than the final score.  They also beat a rookie QB for the Bears who was playing in his first ever road game.

When the Chargers have stepped up in class against good defenses like the Jets, they have lost.  They lost 31-17 at Kansas City, 20-17 at home to Dallas, 27-24 at Tennessee and 36-34 to Miami.  As you can see against the two best defenses they faced, they only managed 17 points against the Chiefs and 17 against the Cowboys.  I think the Jets are more than capable of holding them to 17 points or fewer in this one.  They held the Chiefs to 23, the Bills to 16 and the Eagles to 14 to show what they are capable of.

The Chargers were already without WR Mike Williams which has taken away a lot of their explosiveness on offense because he was such a great deep threat.  Josh Palmer continues to battle a knee injury and isn't 100%.  Palmer missed practice on Thursday which is a good sign he won't be ready to play.  Herbert's only two reliable weapons right now at Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler out of the backfield.  Plus, the Chargers have a leaky defense that ranks 31st in total defense at 391 yards per game and 30th at 5.9 yards per play.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - a slow starting team getting outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Jets are undervalued right now after playing in tough conditions in a 13-10 (OT) win over the Giants, who are playing everyone tough right now.  The Chargers are overvalued off their blowout win over the lowly Bears.  Bet the Jets Monday.

20* Bills/Bengals NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 48

The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White.  Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys against Jacksonville in London.

The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London.  They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line.  And then a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills.  The Bills were decent against the Bucs last week holding them to 18 points and 302 total yards.

But this is a big step up in class now for this Buffalo defense, which will get exposed like they did against Jacksonville.  After facing Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, now the Bills have to face Joe Burrow and this surging Cincinnati offense.  The Bengals put up 34 points against the Cardinals three weeks ago, were held to 17 points by the Seahawks two weeks ago in tough windy conditions, but then busted out again for 31 points and 400 total yards on the San Francisco 49ers last week.

Joe Burrow is back to playing at an MVP level with his calf injury clearly behind him.  He is completing 78% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio over the last three games.  The offense is basically fully healthy right now.  Burrow and the Bengals lit up the Bills for 27 points and 412 total yards in the playoffs last year to knock them out.

Josh Allen and this Buffalo offense are going to have to try and keep pace with the opposition with their leaky defense.  I think Allen and company can match Burrow and the Bengals score for score in this one.  This Cincinnati defense has taken a big step back this year.  And they just lost their best defensive lineman in DE Trey Hendrickson to an ankle injury last week.

The Bengals are allowing 370 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  They gave up 460 yards against hte 49ers last week in a misleading win.  They also gave up 381 total yards to the Seahawks the previous week in a misleading win.  They've done a good job of stopping opponents in the red zone to keep them off the scoreboard, but now they face a Buffalo offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 69%.  The Bills will capitalize on their opportunities.  They score 27.8 points per game, average 377 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.

The weather forecast looks good for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday night with temps in the 50's and only 3 MPH winds.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Giants/Raiders Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 37

The New York Giants have gone under the total in six consecutive games.  The Las Vegas Raiders have gone under the total in five of their last six games.  This is a great 'buy low' opportunity to back an OVER between these teams as a result this week.

There's several reasons to believe that both these offense will have success this week.  The Raiders wipe the slate clean by firing head coach Josh McDaniels and their GM.  They will be turning to rookie QB Aidan O'Connell the rest of the way.  He was great in the preseason and got his feet wet against the Chargers.  I expect the Raiders to open up the playbook and let him do what he does best, which is sit back in the shot gun and sling it around the yard.  O'Connell certainly is no downgrade from Jimmy G or Brian Hoyer as this Raiders offense was lifeless with those two prior.  He'll be up against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the NFL allowing 5.6 yards per play.

On the Giants side of things, they are expected to get back QB Daniel Jones this week.  He is an upgrade over Tyrod Tayor, who started the last three games for the Giants in lackluster offensive performances.  The offensive line is getting healthier, and now Saquon Barkley is back to carrying a full workload.  This Giants offense is in line for one of their biggest performances of the season.

This Raiders defense allowed 30 points to the Bears two weeks ago and 26 points and 486 total yards to the Lions last week.  The defense was on the field for most of that game Monday night, and now they will be gassed coming into this game on a short week.  Plus, the Raiders have injuries up and down their defense that are going to make things much easier for this Giants offense.  New York just traded away Leonard Williams, one of their best defensive linemen.  They won't be as stout on that side of the ball without him.

I love backing OVERS in non-conference games because teams aren't familiar with one another and thus harder to prepare for, which favors the offenses.  That's especially the case this week with both of these teams starting new quarterbacks.  I also like backing OVERS between two bad teams because there tends to be more of a care-free attitude, which also favors offense.

The Giants have played in three straight bad weather games, which is a big reason each of their last three games stayed under the total.  But the few times they have played in good weather games, they have easily topped this 37-point total.  They went for 59 combined points at Arizona in a dome, 42 combined points at San Francisco and 47 combined points at Miami.  This will be another dome game in Las Vegas, which also favors the OVER.

The Raiders would be 6-1 to the OVER with a total of 37 or less in their last seven games, combining with their opponents for 38-plus points in six of those seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Dolphins/Chiefs AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami +2

I like the fact that Miami traveled out to Germany on Monday night and arrived Tuesday morning.  They have had more time to acclimate to the jet lag that comes with this trip.  The Chiefs aren't leaving until Thursday afternoon and won't have as much time to acclimate.

We saw the Ravens leave early in the week while the Titans went late in the week in the last London game.  The Ravens jumped out to an 18-3 halftime lead and were clearly more ready to play.  I think that could be the case here with the Dolphins more ready to play than the Chiefs.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on the offensive line and should get LT Terron Armstead and C Connor Williams back this week.  They also just got Jalen Ramsey back from injury last week for the first time this season, and he made an instant impact with an interception against the Patriots.

I have faded the Dolphins in each of their two losses at Buffalo and at Philadelphia this season.  But those were tough road games and they weren't at full strength in either of them.  The Bills were pissed off and wanting to prove a point, while the Dolphins were missing three starters on the offensive line against the Eagles.

This is being played on a neutral field and I think the Dolphins match up well with the Chiefs.  I also think the Dolphins have heard all week about how they can't beat a good team because they are 6-2 this season, but both losses came against the two best teams they faced.  They want to make a statement here against the defending Super Bowl champs, and I think they are primed to do so now that they are healthy.

The Chiefs lost LB Nick Bolton and now fellow LB Willie Gay is questionable.  Their defense has been good to this point, but we could see them slip a little here in the immediate future with these injuries at LB.  This is a big step up in class for this Chiefs defense after facing the Broncos twice, the Bears, Jets, Vikings, and the Chargers in their last six games coming in.  So their 6-2 record is a little fraudulent as well with their only real quality win being against Jacksonville.

The extra travel won't give them as much time to prepare for this Miami offense, which has been the best in the NFL this season at 33.9 points per game, 453.3 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play.  Meanwhile, this Chiefs offense is just broken.  They have been held to 20 points or fewer four times already this season.  They can't get separation and they are too predictable relying so much on Travis Kelce.  The Dolphins will game plan around stopping Kelce like the Broncos did last week, limiting him to 6 receptions for 58 yards in a 24-9 victory.

The Chiefs won't be able to run the ball on this Miami defense, which has allowed 108 or fewer rushing yards in seven consecutive games.  They allow just 329 yards per game and 5.4 per play overall and are much better on this side of the ball than they get credit for, especially with a healthy Ramsey back now which will open up Vic Fangio's defense.  There's talk of Ramsey covering Kelce which would be a wise move, and that's why I love this matchup for Miami.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +3

Some short weeks in the NFL for these Thursday night games are not created equal.  This isn't as bad of a spot for the Titans as it normally would be for most teams.  The Titans had a bye two weeks ago prior to beating Atlanta 28-23 at home last week.  They should still be very fresh for this one, and they came out of that Atlanta game very healthy.

The Titans got a big boost with the insertion of Will Levis in at quarterback.  It was their best offensive output of the season against a very good Atlanta defense last week.  They put up 28 points and 375 total yards on the Falcons.  Levis threw 4 touchdown passes without an interception, including three to DeAndre Hopkins as the team finally found a way to use one of the best wideouts in the league with Levis under center.

I don't expect Levis to be as good in his first road start here against Pittsburgh.  However, I think the Titans are the better team right now and should not be catching 3 points.  The Titans are an average NFL team, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.6 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by just 0.1 yards per play.

The Steelers have the stats of one of the worst teams in the NFL despite their 4-3 record, which is a fraudulent 4-3 record.  The Steelers average 4.8 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.1 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 111 yards per game this season and are the only NFL team to be outgained in every single game they have played in.

The Steelers have been living off of turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns, which is unsustainable.  Even with several non-offensive touchdowns this season, the Steelers are still averaging just 16.1 points per game and 272 yards per game.  They have the worst offense in the entire NFL in my opinion.

QB Kenny Pickett was knocked out of their 20-10 home loss to the Jaguars last week, and Mitch Trubisky wasn't any better as his replacement.  Pickett says he's going to play this week through injury.  The last time he said that and played through injury, the Steelers were blasted 30-6 at Houston.  They have no running game, and Pickett has not lived up to the hype.

This Pittsburgh defense has been good at creating turnovers, but not much more.  The Steelers are allowing 383 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season, ranking 30th in total defense and 28th in yards per play.  They are also 27th against the run, allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  That's bad news for them going up against Derrick Henry as the Titans rank 7th in the NFL at 4.5 yards per carry this season.  Pittsburgh is without its best player in the secondary in S Minkah Fitzpatrick as well.

The Steelers could easily be 0-7 this season.  They are being overvalued due to their 4-3 record.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Titans Thursday.

20* Raiders/Lions ESPN No-Brainer on Detroit -8

This is a 'buy low' spot on the Detroit Lions after getting blown out 38-6 at Baltimore last week.  You could see it coming a mile away and I had a 25* play on the Ravens in that game.  The Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL and were as healthy as they had been all season.  Plus, the Lions were banged up and even took practice off on Wednesday of last week to try and get healthier.  But their lack of preparation for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens showed.  Plus, 20-plus MPH winds hurt their offense.

Now the Lions are back in the dome in Detroit and highly motivated to get back on track.  They have the lowly Las Vegas Raiders coming to town.  The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the Lions have feasted on bottom feeders this season.  They were in dog fights with the Chiefs and Seahawks earlier this season, but they have blown out the sisters of the poor, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the likes of the Falcons in a 20-6 victory, the Packers in a 34-20 victory, the Panthers in a 42-24 victory and the Bucs in a 20-6 victory.  The Raiders are in the same class as those four teams, if not worse.

The Raiders were just blown out 30-12 on the road by the Chicago Bears last week.  They are held to 235 total yards in defeat.  Brian Hoyer was the starter, but it hasn't matter who has started at QB even if a hobbled Jimmy G returns this week.  This is one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Raiders average just 16.0 points per game, 284.1 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.

A big problem for this Raiders offense is that after leading the league in rushing last year, Josh Jacobs and this offensive line have been a major disappointment.  The Raiders only rush for 69 yards per game and 3.0 per carry.  They won't be able to get anything on the ground against this Detroit defense, which is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  That's going to put a lot on Jimmy G's shoulders if he does return, and I just don't think the Raiders can keep up in a shootout because they are not going to stop Detroit.

The Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL, averaging 24.9 points per game, 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They have been at their best at home in a controlled environment, averaging 31.0 points per game, 384 yards per game and 6.3 per play in their three home games.  They will get back on track offensively this week.  The Raiders have key injuries in the secondary, at linebacker and on the defensive line.  K Daniel Carlson is also battling a groin injury.

Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 35 points or more.  The Raiders are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 58-25 (69.9%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Lions Monday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -7.5

Note: I love a 6-point teaser with the Ravens -1.5/Lions -1.5.

I'm very high on the Ravens right now and very low on the Cardinals.  That has been evident the last two weeks as I've backed the Ravens twice with success, and faded the Cardinals last week.  So it should come as no surprise I'm backing the Ravens and fading the Cardinals this week and fully expect this to be the biggest blowout of the week in pro football.

The Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season right now.  They played up to their potential with a 38-6 home win over Detroit last week.  The Ravens racked up 503 total yards and 9.1 per play and held the Lions to 337 total yards and 4.7 per play.  New offensive coordinator Todd Monken has this Ravens offense revved up right now, and the defense is arguably the best in the league.

Indeed, the Ravens have elite numbers averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play.  They should be 7-0 right now as they gave the games away in their two losses to the Colts and Steelers.  But now they are playing with their foot squarely on the gas and will continue to do so against Arizona.

I'll gladly lay this single-digit number against an Arizona Cardinals team that is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight losses by double-digits.  They lost 35-16 at San Francisco, 34-20 at home to Cincinnati, 26-9 at the LA Rams and 20-10 at Seattle.  They lost by 10 at Seattle last week despite being +3 in turnovers and that game should have been a bigger blowout.

Their offense is in shambles right now scoring just 13.8 points per game in their last four games.  Their offensive struggles have coincided with the loss of James Conner, who was averaging 5.4 yards per carry before he got hurt.  They have averaged 3.5 yards per carry without him.  Josh Dobbs was in manageable 3rd down situations with Conners, but now he's in too many 3rd and longs without him.  He isn't handling it very well.

Arizona is now the team that we all thought they would be coming into the season, which was the worst team in the NFL.  They are just biding their time until Kyler Murray returns, which won't be this week.  They may not play him at all, and it's a big distraction right now.  The Cardinals have been terrible defensively this season, allowing 26.0 points per game, 368.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are injury-ravaged defensively as well and worn down because they have been on the field so much the last four weeks.  They really need a bye but don't have one in the near future.

The Ravens are arguably the best team in the NFL in their current form and the Cardinals are arguably the worst.  The Ravens should be bigger favorites here as a result.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks ML -130

The Seattle Seahawks should be 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall but instead are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS.  I think their misleading loss at Cincinnati two weeks ago is creating line value here for future games.  I capitalized by backing the Seahawks in their 20-10 win over Arizona last week despite being -3 in turnovers in another misleading final.

They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards.  They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play.  The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points.  They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line.  That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling.

While the Seahawks are coming off two misleading results where they dominated the box score but lost the turnover battle, the Cleveland Browns are coming off two misleading wins that are creating line value here on the home favorite.  I faded the Browns last week with the Colts and cashed my ticket, but the Browns still won the game by 1 in a game they had no business winning.

The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses two weeks ago in their 19-17 win over the 49ers.  Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game.  The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it.  Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead.

Their golden horseshoe stayed in their asses again last week.  The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards.  They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play.  Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly.  Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland.  

The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone.  It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown.  I think their luck runs out this week.

The Browns won't have QB Deshaun Watson or RB Jerome Ford for this one.  Marquise Goodwin, Sione Takitaki and Jedrick Willis all missed practice on Thursday due to various injuries.  It will be PJ Walker at QB again, and he's one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.  Walker will be up against an underrated Seattle deense that allows just 19.7 points per game, 322 yards per game and 5.0 per play.  Their defensive strength is stopping the run, allowing 87 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  They are going to force Walker to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think he'll be able to do it on the road in a hostile environment.

The Seahawks did not have WR DK Metcalf last week against the Cardinals.  But he returned to practice and is expected to play this week.  Seattle is much healthier than Cleveland coming into this one and the better team in their current state.  That's why I'm taking them at a short money line price here when they should be much bigger favorites.

The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski.  The Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, including 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis Colts ML -116

The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville two weeks ago.  The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points.  The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers.  The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play.

That misleading result against the Jaguars created line value on the Colts last week, and I backed them as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Cleveland Browns.  Now we have another misleading result against the Browns that is creating line value on the Colts again this week.  The Colts lost to the Browns 39-38 despite outgaining them 456 to 316, or by 140 total yards.  They also outgained the Browns 6.8 to 4.4 yards per play.

Another four turnovers by the Colts including three lost fumbles cost them dearly.  Myles Garrett also blocked a FG while forcing two of those fumbles and almost single-handedly won that game for Cleveland.  The Browns also got help from the refs on their final game-winning drive with a phantom illegal contact call on 4th down and then a phantom pass interference on an uncatchable ball in the end zone.  It was the 2nd consecutive week the Browns were greatly helped by the refs, and the NFL came out and admitted both flags shouldn't have been thrown.

What I want to focus on here is that the Colts put up 456 total yards and 6.8 per play against a Cleveland defense that most thought was the best defense in the NFL coming into the week.  Gardner Minshew threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for two scores against that defense.  He has been much better against man coverage than zone coverage throughout his career.  Well, the Browns run the 2nd-most man coverage in the NFL this season under Jim Schwartz.  Only the New Orleans Saints run more man coverage than the Browns.

Now Minshew gets to go up against this man-heavy Saints scheme this week.  I know the Colts can get their on offense with a balanced attack as they also rushed for 168 yards on the Browns last week behind Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, who combined for 36 carries and are a great 1-2 punch at running back.

I'm also certain this New Orleans offense is great between the 20's but terrible when they get inside the red zone.  That has been a problem for them all season, especially the last two weeks.  They have won the yardage battle in consecutive losses to the Texans and Jaguars, but it's not as impressive because it's predictable.  They get in the red zone and bog down.  They rank 28th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 37.5%.  The Colts rank 12th at 58.33%, and I expect that to be the difference in this game with the Colts capitalizing on more scoring opportunities than the Saints.

You could see Derek Carr visibly upset last week with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael.  They aren't on the same page right now.  You could also see Carr visibly bothered by a groin injury suffered in the 4th quarter in their home loss to the Jaguars.  It has all been dink and dunk for Carr this season, making this a great matchup for this Colts defense.  They have some of the best linebackers in the NFL and they are great at covering running backs out of the backfield like Alvin Kamara.  

The Saints are averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per pass attempt this season.  The are so predictable.  They are averaging 4.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.9 per play on defense while playing a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  The Colts are averaging 5.6 per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense while playing a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses and defenses.  

The Colts have played the 7th-toughest schedule to this point while the Saints have played the 6th-easiest schedule.  But the schedule gets easier for the Colts with their next five games coming against the Siants, Panthers, Patriots, Bucs and Titans.  They know they have a chance to make some headway, and it starts this week with a win and cover against the Saints.  Shane Steichen is one of the best schemers against man coverage, and I think the Colts have a big coaching edge here over Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* Bucs/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 43

The Buffalo Bills are without three of their best defenders in DT DaQuon Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre'Davious White.  They are also without LB Braylon Spector, and DT Ed Oliver is questionable.  Their defense has taken a huge step back since losing those top three guys in that Jacksonville game three weeks ago.

The Bills gave up 474 total yards to the Jaguars in that loss in London.  They were fortunate to escape with a win over the Giants who failed twice from the 1-yard line and gained 317 total yards in that game with Tyrod Taylor at QB and without nearly their entire offensive line.  And then last week a previously dormant New England offense put up 29 points and 357 total yards on the Bills.

Now a dormant Tampa Bay offense should get on track against this Buffalo defense.  The Bucs are very healthy on offense and get RB Chase Edmonds back on the field.  Baker Mayfield was a full participant in practice Thursday, as was WR Chris Godwin.  Mayfield and company are in line for one of their biggest offensive outputs of the season here.

The Bucs have a good defense, but they have faced a weak schedule of opposing offenses.  They are going to be without S Kevon Merriweather after he was injured against the Falcons last week.  They could be without their big run stuffer insider in Vita Vea, who is battling a groin injury and is questionable.

What I know for certain is the Bills are going to be able to move the football and score points on this overrated Tampa Bay defense.  The Bucs gave up 472 total yards to the Eagles, 380 total yards to the Lions and 401 total yards to the Falcons in three of their last four games coming in.  The Falcons fumbled twice from the 1 and once from the 11 to basically take 14-21 points off the board last week and try to give the game away.  The Bills will be able to move the football and hang a big number on this Tampa Bay defense.  The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in red zone TD percentage at 71.43%.

Mayfield and this Tampa Bay offense are going to try and have to keep pace.  The weather looks good for a shootout in Buffalo Thursday night with temps in the 60's, only a 4% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds.  This is about as perfect as weather gets in Buffalo this time of year.

Plays on the OVER involving road teams like Tampa Bay that have a poor offense averaging 14-18 PPG against a good defense (14-18 PPG), after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983.  This total has been suppressed due to Tampa's poor offensive numbers to this point and Buffalo's misleading defensive numbers.  Both of these defenses are vulnerable right now due to injury and that will show tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* 49ers/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +7

The Minnesota Vikings are kings of playing on one-score games.  Dating back to the start of last season, the Vikings have played in one-score games in 20 of 24 games.  All six of their games this season have been decided by a single score.  Given that fact, getting +7 on the Vikings at home here is a nice value.

The 49ers have some injuries they are dealing with right now that won't have them at full strength, and as a result they won't be hitting on all cylinders.  Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey all got hurt against the Browns last week and were knocked out of the game.  The 49ers lost that game and Brock Purdy had by far his worst game of the season.

Purdy went 12-of-27 passing for 125 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the loss to the Browns last week.  Both Samuel and Williams will miss this game, which are two huge blows to this offense.  McCaffrey is expected to play through an oblique injury, but he'll likely be on a pitch count and there's no assurance he will make it through the entire game.

The Vikings saved their season last week by going on the road and beating the Bears 19-13.  This came a week after they nearly upset the Chiefs at home, holding Kansas City to 333 total yards in a 27-20 defeat.  They were only outgained by 4 yards by the Chiefs and didn't have Justin Jefferson for the majority of that game.  If they can hang with the Chiefs, they can hang with the 49ers.

Brian Flores is doing a good job at defensive coordinator making the right adjustments after a poor start to the season.  He was too blitz-happy early in the season and has toned it down a lot of late.  The Vikings have held their last three opponents to an average of 17.7 points per game, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Their defense can keep them in this game, and Kirk Cousins and company have another week to get the chemistry right without Jefferson as he gels with Addison, Hockenson and Osborn.  Cousins is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season.

Minnesota is 13-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  Bet the Vikings Monday.

15* Dolphins/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia ML -130

I love the spot for the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night.  They are coming off their first loss of the season to the New York Jets in a game they basically gave away.  They will respond in a big way, and they will be fully focused with the hype-train Miami Dolphins coming to town Sunday night.  They want to destroy this hype train.

Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions and the Eagles turned it over four times to give the game to the Jets last week.  Keep in mind the Jets have held the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles in check, so they have an elite defense and have a way of slowing down some of the top quarterbacks in the league.  The Dolphins haven't had to face them yet, but they will have similar issues when they do.

The Eagles have elite numbers this season outgaining opponents by 97 yards per game.  They have great ball control averaging nearly 35 minutes of time of possession.  They rush for 150 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Their ground game and ability to play keep away from the Dolphins is going to be a big key to victory here.

That's especially the case when you look at the forecast.  There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Philadelphia Sunday night.  That's going to keep Miami's downfield passing game in check, and the team that runs the football better is going to have a big advantage.  That team is Philadelphia.

This reminds me a lot of the Miami at Buffalo game a few weeks ago.  Buffalo's defense was healthy at that point and could get pressure by rushing four and not blitzing.  Buffalo won that game 48-20 to not only expose this Miami offense, but expose this Miami defense as well.  Philadelphia can get pressure rushing four and dropping seven without blitzing as well.  They have one of the best defensive lines in football, and they are expected to get back both Jalen Carter and Darius Slay this week, who they didn't have against the Jets.  They led the NFL in sacks last year and are one of the best pressure defensive lines in the NFL again this season.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Eagles off that upset loss, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after back-to-back wins and covers against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Giants and Panthers.  They only beat the Giants by 15 as 12.5-point favorites and needed a late TD to cover as 14-point favorites against the Panthers.  This is a huge step up in class for the Dolphins, who were playing in perfect conditions at home in those two games and now have to hit the road for the first time since that 28-point loss at Buffalo and deal with the elements in Philadelphia.  Bet the Eagles on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Packers/Broncos OVER 44.5

I love the spot for the Green Bay Packers this week.  They are coming off their bye week following consecutive losses.  They needed the bye week to regroup and get healthy.  Now they come out of the bye as healthy as they have been all season.

Jordan Love has been getting a ton of criticism, and most of it is deserved.  However, Love has had his two best playmakers in Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the field at the same time for a grand total of 11 snaps this season.  Jones returns from a hamstring injury this week and should be 100% coming off the bye, and Watson is back to 100% as well.

The Packers are in line for their best offensive output of the season since their 38-20 season-opening win at Chicago.  The Bears and Broncos have been neck-and-neck for worst defense in the league honors this season.  The Broncos take the take, allowing 33.3 points per game, 440 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season.

The Broncos have at least been competent on offense this season scoring 21.5 points per game.  They have scored at least 20 points in four of their last five games including 33 against Washington and 31 against Chicago.  The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games overall with 52 or more combined points in all four OVERS.  The lone exception came against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Chiefs, plus there was 20 MPH winds and tough playing conditions.  The Broncos should hang a big number on the Packers as well.

Green Bay is without its most important defender in LB De'Vondre Campbell.  The Packers have also benefited from playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in the Bears, Falcons, Saints and Raiders.  The only quality offense they faced they gave up 34 points and 401 total yards to the Lions.

The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 70's and only 8 MPH winds Sunday in Denver.  Sean Payton is a dead nuts OVER head coach with great offenses but terrible defenses dating back to his time in New Orleans.  Matt LaFleur is 8-1 OVER in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Green Bay.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks -7.5

Note: I love 6-point teasers with the Seahawks -1.5 this week. My favorite teaser partner for them is Colts +8, but other good options are Giants +8 & Falcons +8.5.

The Seattle Seahawks are pissed off coming into this one so they won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly. They returned from their bye week and blew their game on the road at Cincinnati in one of the most misleading finals in the NFL.   They lost 17-13 at Cincinnati despite outgaining the Bengals by 170 yards.  They had 384 total yards and 5.5 yards per play on offense and held the Bengals to just 214 total yards and 4.0 per play.

The Bengals had basically four first-and-goals that resulted in a total of 3 points.  They had two turnovers on downs and a turnover on four drives that got inside the Cincinnati 11-yard line.  That's just bad luck and obviously bad play calling.  I expect their offense to right the ship this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games.  In the lone game they didn't allow at least 26, the Cowboys went 1-for-5 in the red zone against them and still had 416 total yards.  Arizona allows 27.0 points per game, 377 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season.

Seattle's defense is one of the more underrated units in the league.  They have gotten healthy in recent weeks especially in the secondary and are showing what they are capable of.  Joe Burrow just lit up this Arizona defense for 34 points and and 317 passing yards.  The Seahawks then held Burrow to 185 passing yards on 35 attempts, averaging just 5.3 per attempt last week.  That came after holding the Giants to 3 points and 248 total yards.

Arizona's offense has come back down here quite a bit in recent weeks.  They have averaged just 15.0 points per game in their last three games.  After getting three field goals in the first half against the Rams last week, they were shut out in the 2nd half.  The Rams rushed for nearly 200 yards in the 2nd half alone on their soft defense.

What has hurt Arizona's offense in recent weeks is losing RB James Conner to injury.  They just don't have a replacement for him.  He rushed for over 200 yards in consecutive games against the Giants and Cowboys and averaged 5.4 per carry on the season.  Their running game is almost non-existent without him, putting too much pressure on Josh Dobbs to make plays with his arm, making their offense more predictable. The Cardinals are 1-5 this season and now currently playing like the team that most of us thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in the NFL.

As of Wednesday there is a 75% chance of rain in Seattle on Sunday.  The team that runs the football more effectively is going to have a huge advantage.  Well, we saw what the Rams did against the Cardinals on the ground last week.  Arizona allows 133 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Seattle has been elite against the run, allowing just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Seattle has owned Arizona in recent meetings going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with all three wins coming by 8 points or more, including two on the road.  I expect them to make it four in a row here.  

I'm also concerned with Dobbs and the return of Kyler Murray to practice this week, though he isn't going to play in this game but may play in their next game.  Dobbs is a dead man walking and he knows it and it's a big distraction for him and the team. Pete Carroll is 53-27 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that allow 350 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Indianapolis Colts +2.5

The Colts lost 37-20 on the road to Jacksonville last week.  The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points.  The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers.  The Colts put up 354 yards and 4.7 per play, outgaining the Jaguars by 121 yards and 0.9 per play.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Colts this week now.  Gardner Minshew hadn't turned the ball over once prior to that Jacksonville game, so it was an aberration.  The Colts had to go away from their game plan after falling behind 21-3 in the first half.  They want to run the football with their two-headed monster of Moss and Taylor, and they will get back to running the football this week.  Shane Steichen won't leave Minshew out to dry against this Cleveland pass rush.

No question Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL.  But their offense leaves a lot to be desired, and as of this writing they don't know whether or not Deshean Watson returns this week.  I like the Colts either way.  This is a massive letdown spot for the Browns following their 19-17 upset win over the 49ers last week to hand the 49ers their first loss of the season.

The Browns had a golden horseshoe up their asses last week against the 49ers.  Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel got hurt and were knocked out of the game.  The weather conditions were tough, and the 49ers missed two field goals, including a 41-yarder at the buzzer that would have won it.  Plus, the Browns had all kinds of bad calls by the refs go their way, including a fumble that would have been returned for a TD by the 49ers had the refs not called it an incomplete pass and intentional grounding instead.

The Browns have not handled success very well under Kevin Stefanski.  The Browns are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Stefanski is 3-15 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Cleveland.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore Ravens ML -135

The Baltimore Ravens are as healthy as they have been all season.  They just got their entire starting line healthy in time for that game in London.  And that was an 18-3 game at halftime that turned into a 24-16 game and a misleading final.  The Ravens dominated the Titans outgaining them 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards.

The Ravens should be 6-0 this season.  They dominated the box score in their OT loss to the Colts and they dominated the box score and blew a 10-point lead late in their loss to the Steelers.  If the Ravens were 6-0 right now like they should be, we'd be laying a bigger price on the money line on them this week.

The Ravens have elite numbers this season averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best margins in the NFL.  They really have an elite defense, allowing 15.2 points per game and 261 yards per game.  This will be by far the best defense that Detroit has faced yet this season.

While the Ravens are getting healthy, the Lions are banged up on the offensive line and at running back.  They are going to be without bruiser David Montgomery this week, and they are going to need to be able to run the ball given the weather forecast.  There are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Baltimore on Sunday.  The pass-happy Lions aren't going to fare very well outdoors in these conditions.

The wind won't affect the run-heavy Ravens nearly as much.  Detroit's defensive scheme struggles against running quarterbacks dating back to last season, which defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has admitted is a problem.  It will rear its ugly head against Lamar Jackson and company this week.

Lamar Jackson is 18-4 ATS as a favorite of -3 or less or an underdog.  Jackson is 11-1 ATS in his last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  And better yet, Jackson is 10-0 ATS in his last 10 starts with a line of +3 to -3.  He wins these games that are expected to be close, and I trust him in this spot given all the factors.  Look what he did against the vaunted Cleveland defense in Week 4, leading the Ravens to a 28-3 road victory as a 1.5-point favorite.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Lions, who have won and covered four straight against an easy schedule of Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina and Tampa Bay.  They lost to Seattle in Week 2 at home, and I'm high on the Seahawks.  They did beat the Chiefs in Week 1, but that was a fluky result with a pick 6 off a wide open receiver's hands that was the difference in a 1-point win.  Now the Lions take a big step up in class this week after facing four straight cupcake opponents.  It won't go well for them on the road in the wind in Baltimore this weekend.  Bet the Ravens on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Jaguars/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans ML -116

The New Orleans Saints are coming off a misleading loss to the Houston Texans while the Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a misleading win over the Indianapolis Colts.  This has created line value on the Saints, and now it's time to 'buy low' on them and 'sell high' on the Jaguars.

The Saints lost 20-13 at Houston last week.  They had 430 total yards and averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding the Texans to 297 yards and 5.0 per play.  Yet they only managed 13 points due to a pair of missed field goals and red zone struggles.  They easily should have won that game.

The Jaguars won 37-20 at home over the Colts last week.  The Jaguars somehow scored 37 points despite only gaining 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  That's because the Colts turned the ball over four times to give them plenty of short fields and easy points.  The Colts gave them that game, they did not earn it based on the numbers.  They gave up 354 yards and 4.7 per play to the Colts.

Trevor Lawrence suffered a knee injury late in that Indianapolis game and was noticeably limping.  He was seen in a knee brace in Tuesday's practice and won't be 100% for this one if he goes.  The Jaguars are also likely to be without their best offensive lineman in Brandon Scherff, another offensive linemen in Walker Little, one of their top targets in WR Zay Jones, and their best CB in Tyson Campbell.

The Jaguars are a tired team right now after playing two games in London, then traveling back to Jacksonville to play the Colts without taking a bye.  And now they have to travel again to New Orleans on a short week with a bad looking injury report.  This is too tall of a task to ask them to play their best game, which is what it would take for them to get a win here.

The Saints could be missing two offensive linemen as well, but basically everyone else that's on the injury report is expected to play.  They are much healthier than the Jaguars.  Most of Jacksonville's injuries are on offense, and they will now have to go up against one of the league's best defenses.  The Saints allow just 16.0 points per game, 278.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  They have held 13 of their last 14 opponents to 20 points or fewer.  Bet the Saints on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5

I was on the 49ers -3.5 over the Cowboys last week and I'm fading the Cowboys again this week.  Their stats coming into that 49ers game were fraudulent because they were living on defensive touchdowns and turnovers, masking the poor performance of their offense in the red zone.  That's a tough way to live.

The Cowboys were exposed in their 42-10 loss at San Francisco.  They also got banged up on defense in that game, losing LB Leighton Vander Esch and CB C.J. Goodwin to injury.  That's bad news for a Cowboys team that just isn't as good defensively without CB Trevon Diggs.

The 49ers have a way of making teams play poorly the following week.  They play a physical brand of football, and it's mentally taxing on opponents trying to prepare for them as well.  One of the best hidden stats about the 49ers is that teams are now 2-19 SU & 4-15-2 ATS the game after facing them since the start of last year.  And now the Cowboys are being asked to go on the road as favorites when they are clearly beat up this week.

Making matters worse for the Cowboys is they'll be facing a rested Chargers team coming off their bye week.  The Chargers are also getting healthy coming into this one with Austin Ekeler making his return to the lineup, plus there's a good chance they get both S Derwin James and LB Joey Bosa back defensively.  The Chargers are now one of the healthiest teams in the league, while the Cowboys are as banged up as they have been all season.

The Chargers will be able to take advantage of a weak Dallas defense that allowed 421 total yards to the 49ers last week.  They have one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and their run game is much better with Ekeler in the fold.  Conversely, I think the Chargers are in line for another good defensive performance after holding the Raiders to 17 points and 264 total yards last time out while forcing three turnovers.  Khalil Mack had six sacks in the win.  The Chargers have elite talent on defense and massive potential when healthy like they are right now.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Jets +7

The Jets have turned a corner taking Kansas City to the wire in a 23-20 loss, and dominating the Broncos in a 31-21 road victory last week.  This isn't that far off from the Kansas City spread as the Jets closed as 8-point home dogs.  Now they are 7-point home dogs to the Eagles, and many would have Kansas City power-rated one point better than the Eagles at this point.

The Eagles haven't faced very many good defenses this season.  Three have been the Rams, Commanders and Vikings, three of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Against the two best defenses they faced they had 25 points on the Patriots but basically 14 came off turnovers.  They had 25 points against the Bucs as well.

I think the Jets can hold the Eagles to 24 or less in this one, meaning they'd only need 17 to push or cover.  They held the Bills to 16 and the Chiefs to 23 and actually outscored those two teams in the two games combined, so they have proven they can play with anyone.  The weather could be pretty rough for this one and turn it into an even lower scoring game, meaning each point is worth more.  There is a 50% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds expected.

The Jets won't mind uglying it up and running the football now that they have a fully healthy Breece Hall.  He has averaged 7.2 yards per carry this season and 7.4 yards per reception.  He is an absolute weapon for this team right now.  Zach Wilson has played his two best games of the season last last two weeks and is gaining confidence, and so is the team in him.

This is a tough spot for the Eagles as they have to fly back from Los Angeles after beating the Rams last week.  They will now be on the road for a second consecutive week and haven't been home for two weeks in a row yet.  They also have a huge game against Miami on deck, so they could be looking forward to that game.  The Eagles just haven't been that dominant this season with four of their five wins coming by single-digits.  But you're paying a tax to back them now due to their 5-0 record.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them slip up here and lose this game outright.  The Jets have just one loss by more than 5 points this season.

S Justin Evans, CB Darius Slay and DT Jalen Carter all did not practice on Thursday for the Eagles and are questionable to play in this one.  The Jets got good injury news with Sauce Gardner expected to play and a couple offensive linemen returning to practice on a limited bases Thursday.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cardinals/Rams OVER 47

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have a putrid defense that allows 27.2 points per game, 375.6 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  But their offense has been better than expected, averaging 21.6 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.

The Rams also look like a dead nuts OVER team.  They have been better than expected on offense even without Cooper Kupp, averaging 22.4 points per game this season against a brutal schedule of opposing defenses.  They have faced the Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Colts and Eagles.  Now Kupp is in his 2nd game back from injury against the worst defense the Rams will have faced this season, and they should hang a big number on the Cardinals here to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 47 ticket.

The Rams haven't exactly been dominant defensively.  They allowed 454 total yards to the Eagles last week.  Their defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes in that game.  Also, Arizona's defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes against the Bengals last week when they allowed 34 points.  It's save to say both defenses are gassed coming into this one, which is only going to help these two offenses even more.

The OVER is 4-0 in Rams last four games overall with 54, 51, 44 and 59 combined points.  The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 44 or more combined points in four of the five.  Plus, QB injuries were involved for both teams during this stretch.  Having Stafford healthy and an underrated Dobbs for this one will make all the difference.  Points will be plentiful in this one.

Arizona is 13-3 OVER in its last 10 road games following two consecutive losses by 10 points or more.  Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Arizona) - after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games against an opponent that allowed 450 or more yards last game are 35-11 (76.1%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.