15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Clippers OVER 220.5

The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 223 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  They are also 14-2 OVER in their last 16 games overall dating back further.

The Clippers are locked in to the No. 4 seed in the West with nothing to play for.  That means their backups are going to be getting a lot of run, and this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  It also means there will be zero defensive intensity on their end.  This one has shootout written all over it as a result.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder -19.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to put themselves in position to clinch the No. 1 seed in the West.  They will clinch the No. 1 seed with a win today, and will be max motivated to do so.

The Dallas Mavericks are locked in to the No. 5 seed in the West.  They are one of the few Western Conference teams that are locked into their seeding.  As a result, they are resting all of their best players in Doncic, Irving, Lively II, Gafford, Washington, Jones Jr., Exum and Kleber.

It did not go well for the Mavericks last game without Doncic and Irving as they lost outright as 11-point home favorites to the Pistons 107-89, failing to cover the spread by 29 points.  But they even had four of those players that are sitting today playing in that game.  They will have arguably the worst lineup in the entire NBA playing today, and I don't see them staying within 20 points of the Thunder as a result.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies +13.5

The Denver Nuggets blew the No. 1 seed by losing 121-120 at the buzzer to the Spurs as 11.5-point favorites last game.  They are now in a 3-way tie with the Thunder and Timberwolves for 1st place in the West with one game to go.  But they lose the tiebreaker to both teams.

The problem is the Thunder are 19.5-point favorites over the Mavericks, who are sitting everyone today.  The Nuggets know they have no shot at the No. 1 seed, so they are likely to rest everyone today.  Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr., Gordon, Caldwell-Pope and several others are all questionable, but my anticipation is they sit.

The Nuggets have no business being 13.5-point road favorites over the Grizzlies without these guys.  This is what the line would be if they were all playing.  The Grizzlies continue to show up every night, which was the case last time out in their 123-120 loss to the Lakers are 16-point dogs.  This is a gritty team with a bunch of young players playing with something to prove.  LaRavia, Jackson, Goodwin and Pippen Jr. all scored 23 or more points against the Lakers.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics OVER 227

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  The OVER is 6-1 in Wizards last seven games overall with 230 or more combined points in five of their last six.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Wizards.

The Celtics have rested their starters and will rest them again today.  But these backups are great offensively and terrible defensively.  They will be looking to get as many shots up as possible as this could be their final significant playing time.  The Celtics scored 131 points last game with their backups and will hang another big number on the Wizards, who I expect to keep pace.

The Celtics have really let go of the rope defensively since clinching the No. 1 seed in the East.  The OVER is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Washington Wizards continue to show up.  They have just one loss by more than 9 points in their last 12 games.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Wizards pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.

The Boston Celtics have announced they will be resting their 6 best players in White, Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, Holiday and Brown.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us without these six guys is asking too much.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix Suns -4.5

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They sit in 7th place in the West just one game behind the Pelicans for the 6th seed.  They own the tiebreaker over the Pelicans, who have to play on the road against the Warriors tonight.  The Suns are highly motivated to get out of the play-in and get that 6th seed.

The Suns are fully healthy right now and playing up to their potential.  They are 8-4 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They will be the fresher team tonight as they had yesterday off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

The Kings are running out of gas and out of bodies.  They are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their only win coming against the lowly Nets.  They are without Malik Monk and Kevin Heurter right now to really hurt their depth and shooting.  Fox played nearly 41 minutes last night, while Murray played 36, Barnes 33 and Sabonis 35.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.  Bet the Suns Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5

The Atlanta Hawks have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the 10th spot and the play-in and will have a road game against the Bulls, who they lose out on the tiebreaker to.  Their only concern is getting healthy for the play-in round now as they are dealing with a plethora of injuries.

Indeed, the Hawks are without Bey, Griffin, Johnson and Okongwu.  Dejounte Murray sat out last game with a quad injury and likely won't pay again.  Trae Young just returned from injury and they could be cautious with him as well.  I expect a very poor effort from the Hawks tonight with a lot of backups getting playing time.

The Minnesota Timberwolves still have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Thunder for the 2nd seed and they are one game behind the Nuggets for the top seed in the West.  They are now fully healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return from his knee injury tonight.  They are going 'all in' to win their final two games and get the best seed possible.  I'll gladly back the healthier, more motivated team tonight laying the big number.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +15

The Miami Heat are content with being the 8th seed and in the play-in.  They trail the 76ers by one game for the 7th seed, and the 76ers host the Magic and Nets to close out the season and are likely to win both those games.  They trail the Pacers and Magic by two games with two to go for the 5th and 6th seeds.  They know they are essentially locked in to the 8th seed.

The Heat played like it in their last game as they lost 111-92 at home to the Dallas Mavericks.  Duncan Robinson is out Friday and Terry Rozier is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised to see more starters sit for the Heat tonight as their main focus now is to just get healthy for the playoffs.

The Heat have no business being 15-point favorites over anyone right now given their situation.  The Raptors continue to battle and have a healthy Emmanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett in the lineup right now, plus could get back Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown.  The Raptors are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an outright win at Milwaukee as 14.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs at Brooklyn despite being short-handed in their last game.  They will show up again tonight and give Miami a run for its money.

The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +10.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for right now.  They locked up the No. 1 seed in the East several games ago and have been just going through the motions since.  They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and their last two games just showed how little they cared.

The Celtics lost 104-91 at Milwaukee as 3.5-point dogs on Tuesday before falling 118-109 as 3-point home favorites to New York on Thursday.  The Celtics tailed by 29 to the Knicks heading into the 4th quarter before they called the dogs off.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Celtics have no business being favored by double-digits against anyone in this spot.  Their only goal right now is to get healthy for the playoffs.  They aren't concerned with blowing out Charlotte with two games to go in the regular season.  Even if they play their starters they have been resting those starters in the 4th quarter and will likely do so again.

Charlotte is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hornets upset the Magic 124-115 as 12-point dogs, upset the Hawks 115-114 as 9.5-point dogs and took the Thunder to the wire in a 3-point loss as 7.5-point dogs.  They have not quit, and they will relish this opportunity to try and knock off the top team in the East.  They will clearly be the more motivated team, and motivation means a lot in the NBA.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +1

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for tonight.  They currently sit in 6th place in the West but just 0.5 games ahead of the 7th place Suns and the play-in.  They are playing with a sense of urgency right now beating those Suns 113-105 as 6-point road dogs and beating the Blazers by double-digits on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans are the much healthier team than the Kings right now.  The Pelicans have all hands on deck outside Brandon Ingram, who has been out for about a month.  He could return tonight, but I like the Pelicans either way.

The Kings are without two of their best shooters in Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter.  If it's not them it's Keegan Murray, who is also questionable to play tonight.  The Kings have really struggled since losing Monk, going 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the lowly Nets.  They return home from a 4-game road trip and will be playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

The Pelicans own the Kings this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings with four blowout wins despite being underdogs in all four.  They won by 33, 10, 5 and 36 points for an average margin of victory of 21 points per game.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Kings, and that's even when they were healthy.  That's not the case any more, and the wrong team is favored here tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on New York -2.5

The New York Knicks are back to full strength outside of Julius Randle and playing well.  They beat the Bucks 122-109 as 4.5-point road dogs and followed it up with a 128-117 win at Chicago as 4.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their solid play will continue tonight in Boston.

The reason the Knicks are favored on the road here is because they have a lot to play for, while the Celtics are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East with nothing to play for.  The Knicks sit in 3rd place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bucks and only 1.5 games ahead of the Pacers for the 6th spot.  They have a lot at stake here.

The Celtics have been going through the motions here down the stretch in going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have six key players listed as questionable tonight in Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Porzingis, Horford and Tillman.  Their only focus the rest of the way is to get healthy for a playoff run.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* Suns/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -4

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are coming off an embarrassing 105-92 road loss to the Clippers last night.  They fell behind 35-4 in the 1st quarter to open the game and did a good job just to get back in it.  They shot 33.7% as a team and that's not going to happen again.

The Suns don't have to wait long for revenge as they meet in Los Angeles for the rematch tonight.  They need this game more as they sit in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in and one game behind the Pelicans for 6th place.  They have a lot more to play for here tonight.

The Clippers are now locked in to the 4th or 5th seed.  They will likely play the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, who trail them by two games.  They don't care about home-court advantage.  They are without Kawhi Leonard and could be without James Harden again.  Meanwhile, the Suns could get back Jusuf Nurkic, but I like them to win and cover tonight no matter who plays.

The Suns have been a resilient team going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  They are coming off two consecutive losses and haven't lost three straight games since December 19-25.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

Defensive intensity will be high between the Nuggets and Timberwolves tonight.  1st place in the West is on the line with both teams tied at 55-24 this season with three games to go.  And these are two of the best defensive teams in the league as it is with the Timberwolves ranking 1st in defensive rating and the Nuggets 8th.

Both teams prefer to play slow as well with the Nuggets ranking 26th in pace and the Timberwolves 21st.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be tired as a result, which will also help slow down the tempo.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and this will be the 4th meeting this season between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.  They have combined for 201, 227 and 209 points in their first three meetings.  I think this one stays well UNDER the posted total of 213.5 tonight for all these reasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Magic/Bucks UNDER 216.5

The Orlando Magic are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 27th in pace and 3rd in defensive rating.  The Milwaukee Bucks have trended UNDER since Doc Rivers took over.  Now they will be without Giannis after he suffered a calf injury last night in a 104-91 home win over the Celtics.

Defensive intensity should be high for this one with the Bucks sitting two games ahead of the Magic for 2nd place in the East, and these teams meeting twice in their final three games to decide it.  Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, so I don't look for either to be running much, and this one will be played in the half court.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets OVER 222

The Toronto Raptors are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall with 239 or more combined points in five of those seven games, and 228 or more in six of them.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in six of those seven games.

Neither the Nets nor the Raptors will be interested in playing defense tonight.  The Raptors get Immanuel Quickley back tonight making them even more of an OVER team.  The Nets are expected to have Cam Johnson in the lineup after sitting out last game.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Raptors right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Pelicans -10

The New Orleans Pelicans are in 7th place in the West and currently in the play-in if the season were to end today.  But they are tied with the 6th place Suns and losing out on the tiebreaker.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, so they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly tonight.

The Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season.  They just got back Jose Alvarado from injury and Zion Williamson showed he was healthy in their 113-105 upset win at Phoenix as 5.5-point dogs last time out.  They are only missing Brandon Ingram now, and he is scheduled to return soon.  They don't need him to crush the Blazers.

The Blazers are without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcom Brogdon.  They have gone 2-11 SU in their last 13 games overall with their two wins coming against the lowly Wizards and Hornets.  They return home from a 7-game road trip after a 17-point loss at Boston, and I love fading teams coming back home off an extended trip.  There's a lot of distractions they have to deal with back at home.

The Pelicans are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Blazers with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game.  It will be more of the same tonight given all that the Pelicans have to play for up against the short-handed Blazers.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall.  LeBron James sat out their last game and they lost to the Timberwolves.  I expect him back tonight with what's at stake for the Lakers.

The Lakers currently sit in 9th place in the West but just 0.5 games behind the Kings, and 1.5 games behind both the Pelicans and Suns for the 6th seed.  They also at the very least want to get a home game agains the Warriors in the play-in, and they lead the Warriors by 1.5 games.

The Warriors seems pretty much content with the fact that they will be the 10th seed and have to go on the road in the play-in.  They sat Steph Curry last game, and Draymond Green suffered a back injury that leaves him questionable tonight.  I just don't think the Warriors are going to play this game with the sense of urgency that the Lakers will.

The Lakers also want revenge from a 128-121 home loss to the Warriors on March 16th less than a month ago.  They need this win to split the season series.  The Lakers are 27-13 SU at home and playing their best basketball of the season right now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Bulls UNDER 213.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Bulls and Knicks in five days.  The Bulls won 108-100 in that first meeting on April 5th for just 208 combined points.  It will be another low-scoring, defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

Both the Knicks and Bulls are dead nuts UNDER teams because they play so slow.  In fact, the Knicks rank dead last (30th) in pace, while the Bulls rank 29th.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with 213 or fewer combined points in six of those 10 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Raptors OVER 240.5

The Toronto Raptors are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 239 or more combined points in four of those six games.  They are playing no defense right now allowing 122 or more points in five of those six games.

The Indiana Pacers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall.  They rank 2nd in pace this season and will name their number against Toronto.  I think the Raptors keep pace well enough to get us this OVER tonight.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 252 or more combined points in all three meetings this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER 225

Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves have a lot to play for tonight.  Defensive intensity will be high as a result.  The Timberwolves trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Lakers have climbed their way into the 8th spot and trail the 7th place Pelicans by 0.5 games and the Suns by 1.5 games for 6th.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Timberwolves rank 21st in pace and 1st in defensive rating.  They are coming off a 97-87 loss to the Suns for just 184 combined points.  They are even more of an UNDER team without Karl-Anthony Towns right now.

The Lakers beat the Cavaliers 116-97 for just 213 combined points at home yesterday.  They aren't going to be looking to push the tempo playing the 2nd of a back-to-back today, and the Timberwolves won't allow them either.  There are also questions as to who will play for the Lakers on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Minnesota is 16-5 UNDER when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  The Lakers are 13-4 UNDER in their last 17 games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Kings/Nets UNDER 222

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 games overall and would be 13-2 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 12 games overall.

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Malik Monk, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Monk is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Kings are coming off yet another low-scoring 101-100 los sat Boston.  It will be more of the same today against the Brooklyn Nets, who beat the Pistons 113-103 yesterday for just 216 combined points.  Now Cameron Johnson and Dennis Smith Jr. are questionable to play for the Nets today.  The Nets rank 24th in pace and 22nd in offensive rating this season.

Brooklyn is 28-12 UNDER in its last 40 home games when revenging a road loss.  Sacramento is 49-31 UNDER in its last 80 road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road, the Knicks at home and the Pelicans on the road.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The Spurs are in a favorable rest spot today playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days.  Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are all questionable to play today, but I like the Spurs no matter who suits up for the 76ers.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 219

The Portland Trail Blazers are a dead nuts UNDER team right now due to playing without their three best players in Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogdon.  They really struggle to score on offense, but they are full of hungry young players that have been getting after it defensively.

The Blazers are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall combining for 207 points with the Magic, 175 points with the Hornets and 210 points with the Wizards.  They won't be able to get much offensively against a Boston team that ranks 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating.

The Celtics have gone for 196, 222 and 201 points in three of their last four games.  They don't have much to play for right now so they aren't looking to run it up or push the tempo.  They could let the Blazers hang around as a result, but I like the UNDER much better.  Both Tatum and Brown are questionable for this one as well.

Portland is 20-9 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  The Blazers are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Magic UNDER 212.5

The Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic are two of the slowest teams in the NBA.  The Magic rank 27th in pace while the Bulls rank 29th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which benefits the UNDER.  The Magic rank 3rd in defensive rating as well.

The Bulls could be without both Coby White and Alex Caruso, who both suffered ankle injuries in their 108-100 win over the Knicks last time out.  That would make them go with a bigger lineup and not having White on offense would be a huge blow.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 200, 190 and 191 combined points in three of the four.  Orlando is 10-2 UNDER In Sunday games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Raptors OVER 227.5

Both RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley returned from injury a few games back.  The Toronto Raptors are a dead nuts OVER team when they have their two best guards in the lineup.  They play faster, play worse defense and play much better offensively with these two on the court.  The Raptors are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 228 or more combined points in four of those five.

The Washington Wizards have been a dead nuts OVER team all season.  They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating.  They have been filling it up offensively of late while knocking off some quality teams.  They have scored at least 107 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.

I like betting OVERS in games between two teams with nothing to play for at the end of the season.  These seem to be more relaxed games with no defense being played and all focus on the offensive end.  This contest fits the bill.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Mavs UNDER 227

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall with 214, 204, 204, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in 10 of those 13 games.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 13 games.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Rockets and Mavericks in eight days.  The Mavericks won 125-107 in Houston on March 31st.  Dallas shot 24-of-47 (51.1%) from 3 and that's not going to happen again.

Plus, Dallas could be without Luka Doncic again after he missed their last game against the Warriors.  But I like the UNDER regardless.  This is an early 3:40 EST start time with it being a 2:40 body clock game for these teams.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day, and it usually takes a few quarters for them to wake up.

Dallas is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 games against teams that allow 46% shooting or higher.  Houston is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 road games off two or more consecutive overs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Warriors/Mavericks UNDER 226

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 10-2 UNDER in their last 12 games overall with 204, 204, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in nine of those 12 games.  They rank 1st in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 12 games.

The Golden State Warriors have allowed 100.8 points per game in their last six games and have really amped up their defense with the playoffs quickly approaching.  They rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last four games.

The Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 232 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They just played on Tuesday with the Warriors winning 104-100 at home for just 204 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and it will be more of the same in the rematch tonight.

The Warriors are 22-11 UNDER in their last 33 games overall.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game with what's at stake for both teams.  I also don't expect either team to try and run very much since both will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +11.5

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset the Suns at home, the Jazz on the road and the Knicks at home.  They also only lost by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs to the Warriors, and by 5 as 16-point road dogs to the Nuggets.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

The New Orleans Pelicans are grossly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 12 to Boston, by 13 to Phoenix and by 9 to Orlando all at home.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as well.  They have not played well without Ingram and Alvarado, and now Zion Williamson is questionable with a finger injury.  They should not be laying double-digits to the Spurs tonight.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Chicago Bulls ML -119

The Chicago Bulls have a massive rest advantage tonight over the New York Knicks.  The Bulls have had the last three days off and will be feeling fresh and ready to go tonight.  They also have a lot to play for trying to lock down the 9th seed in the East and a home game against the Atlanta Hawks in the play-in.  They lead the Hawks by just 0.5 games for that spot.

The Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 120-109 home win over the short-handed Kings last night.  Four of five starters played at least 38 minutes for the Knicks last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.

Plays on home favorites (Chicago) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a winning team are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is favored for good reason tonight.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +4.5

The Houston Rockets fought hard to get back in the playoff race by winning 11 consecutive games prior to two straight losses to two of the best teams in the West in the Mavericks and Timberwolves.  They trail the Warriors by 3 games for the final play-in spot, and this is their 'last stand' tonight.

I think we get a massive effort from the Rockets, who should not be 4.5-point underdogs to the Warriors tonight.  The Rockets are 26-12 SU & 27-11 ATS at home this season with the best home-court advantage in the NBA from a ATS perspective.

The Warriors are getting too much respect after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  This is tired Warriors tam playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.  They know they can afford a loss to the Rockets and won't be fully dialed in, especially with a road game on deck against Dallas tomorrow that might have Kerr limit his starters' minutes as well.

Houston is 7-0 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Rockets are 16-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -2.5

The Miami Heat are in playoff mode right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are also as healthy as they have been in a long time.  The Heat currently sit in 6th place in the East just percentage points ahead of the 7th place Pacers.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in round at all costs.

The Heat have been playing with a sense of urgency in their last three games beating the Blazers by 60 at home, the Wizards by 12 on the road and the Knicks by 10 at home.  They are fresh and ready to go as they will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.

The 76ers are getting too much respect as short road underdogs here.  They are coming off two consecutive victories against short-handed teams in the Raptors and Thunder which ended a 3-game skid.  Joel Embiid just returned from injury last game but is on a minutes limit and is questionable tonight.  The 76ers are still without De'Anthony Melton, and their next two best players in Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are questionable tonight.  

I like the Heat regardless of who plays for the 76ers as this line should be higher than -2.5 even if the 76ers get good injury news.  But it's going to close a lot higher if they get poor injury news.  Bet the Heat Thursday.

20* Kings/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 215.5

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games overall and would be 12-1 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 216 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in eight of their last 10 games overall.

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Malik Monk, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Monk is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The New York Knicks have been a dead nuts UNDER team all season.  They are 24-14 UNDER at home this season.  They rank 8th in the NBA in defensive rating and dead last (30th) in pace, which is the reason for being a dead nuts UNDER team.

New York beat Sacramento 98-91 on the road on March 16th in their first meeting this season for just 189 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch here tonight with the team that gets to 100 likely to win this one.  Defensive intensity will be high with the Kings and Knicks both having a lot to play for given their current standings in the playoffs.

Sacramento is 27-13 UNDER in its last 40 games as a road underdog.  New York is 11-2 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Timberwolves OVER 215

This is a very low total for a game involving the Toronto Raptors right now.  The Raptors were trending under prior to combining for 246 points with the Knicks, 255 points with the 76ers and 239 points with the Lakers in their last three games.  A big reason for the under trend was injuries to four of their five starters.  But they just got Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back from injury, and they return to a dead nuts OVER team with these two in the lineup.  Plus, Gary Trent Jr. was on a tear before sitting out last night, and he is back tonight.

The Timberwolves are likely to take the Raptors lightly tonight and I don't expect their defensive intensity to be as high as it normally it.  I do expect the Timberwolves to hang a big number on the Raptors, who have allowed 145, 135 and 128 points in their last three games and are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.  They rank 25th in defensive rating and have been even worse since losing Barnes and Poeltl.

Toronto is 12-2 OVER in non-conference road games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Thunder/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +9

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a lot to play for right now.  They trail the Nuggets by just 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  I suspect they decided to rest their two best players in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams last night against the 76ers to save them for this game against Boston tonight.  There's a good chance they get one or both back, especially SGA.

Either way, I like the Thunder to be competitive tonight against a Boston Celtics team that has absolutely nothing to play for.  The Celtics have locked up the No. 1 seed in the East and are playing like it.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with two outright losses to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites.  Asking the Celtics to win this game by double-digits to beat us when they have nothing to play for is asking too much.

Boston is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12.5

The Washington Wizards have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and have not packed it in.  They have outright upset wins over the Kings as 11-point dogs, the Bulls as 12.5-point road dogs and the Bucks as 13-point dogs during this stretch.

Both the Lakers and Wizards will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but the advantage goes to the Wizards getting to stay at home after playing at home last night, while the Lakers have to travel after winning in Toronto.  There's a chance the Wizards get both Kyle Kuzma and Richaun Holmes back from injury after both sat out last night as well.

The Wizards want revenge from a 134-131 (OT) loss as 9.5-point dogs at Los Angeles on February 29th.  The Wizards are actually 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lakers with all four losses coming by 13 points or fewer.  

The Lakers are 3-12 ATS off a road win this season.  Bet the Wizards Wednesday.

15* Mavs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +1

The Dallas Mavericks are playing better than anyone in the NBA right now.  They are 11-1 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their lone loss coming at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without Luka Doncic.  They are almost fully healthy right now and playing their best basketball of the season.

What would surprise most people is that the Mavericks rank 4th in the NBA in defensive rating during this 11-1 run.  They have allowed 107 or fewer points in 10 of those 12 games.  Their trades for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford are really paying dividends, and Doncic and Irving have great chemistry offensively.

The Warriors have won four in a row against suspect competition.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Mavericks and are in a terrible spot.  The Warriors return home from a 5-game road trip, and I love fading teams returning home from extended trips because there are distractions to deal with back at home.  The Warriors are a tired team playing in their 6th different city in 10 days.

Golden State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days.  Dallas is 25-12 ATS in road games this season.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Warriors UNDER 233

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 8-2 UNDER in their last 10 games overall with 232, 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in nine of those 10 games.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating during this stretch.

The Golden State Warriors have allowed 92, 93 and 97 points in three of their last four games and have really amped up their defense with the playoffs quickly approaching.  They are trying to make the play-in and fighting hard for it with four consecutive victories.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating in their last four games.

The Mavericks and Warriors have combined for 232 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings.  The Warriors are 21-10 UNDER in their last 31 games overall.  Defensive intensity will be high in this game with what's at stake for both teams.  

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 230 or higher (Dallas) - a well rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days, a good team (60-75%) playing a winning team are 57-21 (73.1%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Lakers/Raptors OVER 232.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have been one of the few dead nuts OVER teams here down the stretch.  They are 10-5 OVER in their last 15 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 15 of their last 22 games overall.  That includes 227 or more combined points in 18 of those 22 games.

The Toronto Raptors were trending under prior to combining for 246 points with the Knicks and 255 points with the 76ers in their last two games.  A big reason for the under trend was injuries to four of their five starters.  But now they get Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett back from injury tonight, and they return to a dead nuts OVER team with these two in the lineup.

The Lakers are 20-5 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season and we're seeing 244 combing points per game in these 25 games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 234 or more combined points in all four, including 263 combined points at the end of regulation in their lone meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -12

The Brooklyn Nets are just 4-9 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall and have fallen out of the playoff race.  They are coming off a 116-104 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pacers tonight.

The Pacers have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Nets lightly as a result.  They sit in 6th place in the East but just 0.5 games ahead of the Heat for the first play-in spot.  They don't want to have to go into the play-in.

The Pacers are 7-4 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all seven wins coming by double-digits.  They are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off since blasting the Lakers by 19 at home.  These rest and motivational advantages are the reasons I'm willing to lay this big of a number with the Pacers tonight.

Brooklyn is 1-10 ATS in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Indiana is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Pacers are 19-4 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  They beat the Nets 121-100 in their lone meeting this season on March 16th.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons UNDER 216

Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Pistons are struggling offensively right now due to injuries.  The Grizzlies scored 88 points last time out against the Magic and are without eight players right now including Desmond Bane.

The Pistons have scored 103 or fewer points in nine consecutive games now while going 9-2 UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  They are without Thompson, Grimes, Fontecchio, Steward, Gibson and Umude with both Cunningham and Sasser questionable as well.

Detroit is 7-0 UNDER as a favorite this season.  Memphis is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Pistons are 9-0 UNDER in home games against poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic -15.5

The Orlando Magic crush bad teams like the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have gone 24-7 ATS as favorites this season including 9-1 ATS against a bad team that wins 25-40% of their games this season.  They are also 24-5 ATS against teams with a losing record this season.

The Magic have a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Miami Heat for the Southeast Division Title.  They lead the Heat by two games for the title, meaning they are only two games ahead of the final play-in team as well.  They just crushed the Grizzlies by 30 last game at home, and I expect a similar result against the hapless Blazers tonight.

The Blazers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall with six losses by 12 points or more.  They have lost their last three games by 18 at Houston, by 14 at Atlanta and by 60 at Miami.  They have a G League lineup right now playing without their three best players in Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons.  They are just ready for this season to be over.

Orlando is 8-0 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four ATS this season.  Portland is 0-10 ATS after scoring 95 points or less this season.  Bet the Magic Monday.

15* Jazz/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 223

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games overall and would be 11-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 11 consecutive games now.  

They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.  Making matters worse is that they just lost Malik Monk for 4-6 weeks.  He is the NBA 6th Man of the Year and provides almost all their scoring off the bench.  The Kings are going to have to rely even more on defense moving forward without these guys.

The Jazz are a dead nuts UNDER team in their current state as well.  They are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, plus John Collins is questionable.  The Jazz have been held to 111 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall while going 6-2 UNDER during this stretch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Rockets UNDER 231

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall with 210, 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in eight of those nine games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Houston Rockets are fighting for a playoff spot as they trail the Warriors by just 1.5 games for the final play-in spot.  They have gone for 202 combined points with the Blazers, 224 combined points with the Thunder at the end of regulation, and 201 combined points with the Jazz in their last three games overall.  They are really picking it up on the defensive end of late.

Dallas is 10-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Hawks UNDER 223.5

The Milwaukee Bucks would be 3-0 UNDER in their last three games if not going to double-OT against the Lakers.  They combined with the Thunder for 211 points, combined with the Lakers for 202 points at the end of regulation, and combined with the Pelicans for 207 points in their last three games.

Now the Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight, making them even more of a dead nuts UNDER team.  But they get Patrick Beverly back from injury, and he is one of their defensive leaders and having him will be huge to try and slow down Dejounte Murray of the Hawks.

Murray's usage rate for the Hawks has gone through the roof since losing Trae Young.  They have 6 players out and Jalen Johnson is questionable.  The Hawks have had to rely a lot more on defense of late to be competitive.

Milwaukee is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games against a team with a losing record.  The Bucks are 18-4 UNDER in their last 22 games against teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +6.5

The Boston Celtics have nothing to play for for the rest of the regular season.  They are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the East, so they are going to be lacking motivation the rest of the way.  That gives us a great opportunity to fade them because they are going to continue to be priced as the best team in the league.

The Celtics probably are the best team in the league when healthy and motivated, but neither is the case right now.  That explains how they lost two consecutive games outright to the Hawks as 16.5-point favorites and 10.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Now they are once again laying too many points as 6.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

The Pelicans are 10-3 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are motivated right now to avoid the play-in round as they are currently the 5th seed only one game back of the Clippers for the 4th seed, but also only 2.5 games ahead of the Suns for the 7th seed and the play-in.  They need wins right now while the Celtics do not.

New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and winning by 18.1 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Kings UNDER 230.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 7-1 UNDER in their last eight games overall with 228, 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in seven of those eight games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games overall and would be 10-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 228 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 10 consecutive games now.  They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Mavericks and Kings just played each other on Tuesday with Dallas winning 132-96 for 228 combined points.  Dallas shot 55.4% from the field including 22-of-39 (56.4%) from 3-point range and it still stayed UNDER the total.  It's safe to say the Mavericks won't shoot that well again in the rematch.

Dallas is 9-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -7

The Houston Rockets have won 10 consecutive games and have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Six of their last seven wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should be laying more than 7 points to the hapless Utah Jazz.  The Jazz are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 3-18 SU & 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall dating back further.  The problem for the Jazz is that they have been without their top two scorers in Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen for the majority of their last 21 games.  Clarkson remains out, and Markkanen is questionable.  They lost outright at home to the lowly Spurs even with Markkanen in the lineup last time out.

The Rockets beat the Jazz 147-119 as 11-point home favorites on March 23rd less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.  Houston is 13-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 13-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +7

The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 7-point underdogs to the Denver Nuggets tonight.  The Timberwolves are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at home to the Nuggets.

But that was a terrible spot for the Timberwolves playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning a close game in Utah the previous night.  They were out of gas and still put up a valiant effort against a Nuggets team that came into that game with a day off prior.  The Nuggets had a huge rest advantage.

Now the Timberwolves are fresh playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be highly motivated for a win over the Nuggets, who they trail by 0.5 games for 1st place in the West.  The Nuggets were upset as identical 7-point home favorites against the Suns last time out and haven't had consecutive days off since March 3-4.  Jamal Murray is questionable to play tonight after missing the last three games, and Nikola Jokic is battling through a back injury.

Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  I love this Timberwolves team because they rank 1st in defensive rating and bring it on that end every night.  They also clearly have a ton of resiliency.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +12.5

The Charlotte Hornets showed some life in a 118-111 upset win as 10-point home dogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out.  This is a pretty rested team as the Hornets will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight.  They will get up for the Golden State Warriors tonight and give them a run for their money.

The Warriors are getting too much respect off two consecutive road wins at Miami and Orlando.  The Warriors are a tired team right now playing their 4th consecutive road game in 6 days.  Jonathan Kuminga is questionable to play tonight, and I question how much the Warriors have left in the tank for the Hornets in this one.

The Hornets have played a road-heavy schedule of late with 13 of their last 18 games on the highway.  They have been much more competitive at home.  In fact, the Hornets haven't lost any of their last 10 home games by more than 12 points.  That makes for a perfect 10-0 system backing Charlotte pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston Rockets +7

The Houston Rockets have won nine consecutive games and have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Each of their last six wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.

The Rockets should not be catching 7 points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are in a terrible spot.  The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-112 win at New Orleans last night.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Thunder last night, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Rockets tonight.

Houston is 12-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 15 or more turnovers per game.  The Rockets also get Jabari Smith (13.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG) back from a one-game suspension tonight.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They are coming off a shocking upset win at 9.5-point road dogs at Milwaukee last night in double-OT.  Davis played 52 minutes, Russell 50 and Reaves 48 last night.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, and don't be surprised if they rest some guys.

I like the Grizzlies when they have both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane healthy, which is the case for tonight.  The Grizzlies are also the kind of team that continues to show up every night despite their current standing.  They would love nothing more than to upset the Lakers, who are in a huge letdown spot off the win over the Bucks.

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.  Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS off a road win this season.  This will be just the 2nd game in 5 days for Memphis tonight so they will be the much fresher team.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.

15* Clippers/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They are coming off two straight upset home losses to the 76ers and Pacers.  Now they get their shot at quick revenge against the 76ers on the road this time around.  They are fully healthy and primed for a big effort.  Ty Lue called out his team for being soft, and I expect the Clippers to respond with a blowout win tonight.

The 76ers are in a tough spot here returning home from a 4-game road trip after losing by 12 at Sacramento on the 2nd of a back-to-back after beating the Clippers.  They will be playing their 15th game in 27 days and haven't had consecutive days off since February.  They remain without Embiid and Melton and now Kelly Oubre Jr. is questionable tonight.  They just don't have much talent outside Tyrese Maxey right now.

The Clippers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after failing to cover four of their last five games.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off two consecutive losses as a home favorite.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

20* Mavs/Kings TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 233.5

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 6-1 UNDER in their last seven games overall with 220, 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in six of those seven games.  Dallas is without one of its best shooters in Josh Green right now.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

The Sacramento Kings are a much better defensive team than they get credit for.  The Kings are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall and would be 9-0 if they hadn't gone to OT against Memphis.  They have gone for 227 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in nine consecutive games now.  They are without two of their best shooters in Kevin Heurter and Trey Lyles, and both of those guys are defensive liabilities, which explains this UNDER run.

Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and will be on tired legs so I don't expect them to be pushing the tempo.  These are also the 6th and 7th place teams in the West right now, so defensive intensity will be high as both are trying to avoid the play-in round.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks -8.5

The Dallas Mavericks are highly motivated for wins right now and playing like it.  They sit in 8th place in the West and currently in the play-in round, but just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for 6th place.  They have a lot to play for right now and will not be taking the Utah Jazz lightly.

I love the spot for the Mavericks as they have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go.  They beat the Jazz 113-97 as 13.5-point home favorites four days ago to improve to 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their lone loss came by 7 at OKC as 10.5-point dogs without both Doncic and Irving.  The Mavericks are basically fully healthy right now.

The Jazz are an absolute mess right now.  They are 3-16 SU & 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have lost five consecutive games coming in all by double-digits, and each of their last seven losses have come by 10 points or more.  They have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson for much of this stretch and will likely rest both again tonight.  Kris Dunn has been suspended for this game as well.

Dallas is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Jazz UNDER 237.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Jazz and Mavericks in the last five days.  Dallas won 113-97 for just 210 combined points in that first meeting, and it will be another defensive battle in the rematch that stays well below 237.5 combined points.

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall with 210, 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in five of those six games.  This total is too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way theya re playing right now.

The Jazz have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.  They are struggling on offense to say the least scoring 107 or fewer points in four of their last six games.  This total is too high for a game involving the Jazz right now in their current state.

Utah and Dallas have combined for 236 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this inflated 237.5-point total.  Utah is 9-1 UNDER off a blowout road loss by 20 points or more this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -12

The Houston Rockets have won eight consecutive games and have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Each of their last five wins have come by double-digits, so they aren't even letting teams hang around.  The short-handed Portland Trail Blazers won't be hanging around tonight, either.

Don't look now but the Rockets sit just one game behind the Warriors for the final play-in spot in the West.  They have been motivated to get that spot and are playing like it.  That's why I know they aren't going to take the Blazers lightly tonight, which is key when laying these big numbers.

The Blazers have lost six consecutive games coming in.  They are without Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant tonight, with Anfernee Simons, DeAndre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle questionable to play as well.  I wouldn't be surprised if all of them sit given Portland's current standing.

Houston is 11-1 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Rockets are 25-11 SU & 26-10 ATS in all home games this season.  Bet the Rockets Monday.

15* Thunder/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 232.5

Two elite offensive teams that like to get up and down quickly square off tonight when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Milwaukee Bucks.  The Bucks rank 6th in pace this season while the Thunder rank 7th.  The Thunder rank 3rd in offensive rating while the Bucks rank 5th.

The key here is that both teams are fully healthy right now.  The Bucks have scored at least 114 points in six of their last seven games overall while going 5-1-1 OVER in those seven games.  The Thunder have scored at least 118 points in eight of their last 11 games.  The Thunder average 120.7 points per game while the Bucks average 120.6 points per game.

The Bucks beat the Thunder 136-132 (OT) in their first meeting in a game that was tied 119-119 at the end of regulation for 238 combined points.  OKC is 7-0 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -12

The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now going 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming off a 23-point road win at Miami.  Six of those eight wins have come by 13 points or more.  You can chalk up another today against the hapless Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons are just going through the motions right now going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Four of the five losses have come by 13 points or more, including their last three by 27 at home to Boston, by 19 at home to Indiana and by 25 at Boston.

Not only are the Pistons going through the motions right now, but injuries are really starting to pile up as well.  They are without Ausar Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Simone Fontechio, Isaiah Stewart and Stanley Umude.  Their biggest bright spot this season has been double-double machine Jalen Duren, and now he is questionable with a back injury.

The Pelicans are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 games as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Pistons are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 non-conference home games.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 232

The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  Gary Trent Jr. (12.8 PPG) is questionable as well. It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 11 consecutive games and an average of 105.4 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 11 games and were just held to 96 points by the Magic, 89 points by the Kings and 103 by the Thunder in their last three games.

The Washington Wizards are without PG Tyus Jones (12.0 PPG, 7.3 APG) and Bilal Coulibaly (8.4 PPG) and could be without Jordan Poole (16.6 PPG), who is questionable.  They are hampered offensively right now and it has shown as they have scored 119 or fewer points in 11 consecutive games.  The Wizards have averaged just 106.8 points per game in their last six games while ranking 24th in offensive rating during this stretch.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Raptors last five games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in all five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are the best covering team in the NBA and continue to get disrespected from oddsmakers.  The Magic are 42-28 SU & 45-23-2 ATS this season, including 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS at home.  They have gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall with five striaght wins and covers all by 8 points or more.

The Sacramento Kings are coming off a 109-102 road loss to the short-handed Washington Wizards.  They also needed OT to beat Memphis at home and were upset by New York at home during a 1-3 ATS stretch in their last four.  They are getting too much respect here as only 2.5-point road dogs to the Magic with the way they are playing right now.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacers/Warriors UNDER 240.5

The UNDER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 games overall.  They aren't playing as fast as they were early in the season and they have been playing much better defense since trading for Pascal Siakam.  They rank 5th in defensive rating in their last seven games, and the shooting struggles of star PG Tyrese Haliburton in recent weeks have been widely documented.  He is 21-of-97 (21.7%) from 3 since the All-Star Break.

Both the Warriors and Pacers will be motivated to play good defense tonight.  The Pacers are trying to avoid the play-in round currently sitting in the 6th seed, and the Warriors are just trying to make the play-in round sitting just 2.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Rockets.  They also want to get home court for the play-in round sitting a half-game behind the Lakers for the 9th spot.

The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Pacers and Warriors with 240 or fewer combined points in six of those seven.  They have averaged 219.9 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those seven meetings, so we are have more than 20 points to spare here with this 240.5-point total.

Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games against teams that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Raptors UNDER 231.5

The Toronto Raptors are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in 10 consecutive games and an average of 105.6 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank dead last (30th) in offensive rating in their last 10 games and just scored 89 points against the Kings last game.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-4 UNDER in their last 12 games overall.  They are no longer lighting up the scoreboard behind held to 119 or fewer points in eight of their last 11 games.  But they have bee  pretty elite defensively overall and of late, ranking 5th in defensive rating this season.  They will shut down the short-handed Raptors tonight.

Toronto is 22-12 UNDER in home games this season, including 19-8 UNDER in home games with a total of 220 or higher.  The Raptors are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine home games off a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  OKC should win in a blowout tonight, which means no late fouls and a low-scoring 4th quarter.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Mavericks UNDER 237.5

The Utah Jazz have been playing without their top two scorers in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.  They are struggling on offense to say the least scoring 107 or fewer points in four of thier last five games overall.  This total is too high for a game involving the Jazz right now in their current state.

The Dallas Mavericks are playing much better defense now with the playoffs quickly approaching.  The Mavericks are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 219, 208, 212 and 220 combined points in four of the five games.  This total is also too high for a game involving the Mavericks with the way they are playing right now.

Utah and Dallas have combined for 236 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings.  That makes for a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this inflated 237.5-point total.  Dallas is 7-0 UNDER in home games after covering four of its last five games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -3.5

The Houston Rockets have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the West in covers in a 5-point loss at Phoenix as 8.5-point dogs and a 6-point loss to the Clippers as 6.5-point dogs.

The Rockets now have a legitimate shot to make the play-in and are fighting hard for it.  They are just 3 games back of the Warriors and 3.5 back of the Lakers for the final two spots.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will keep their foot on the gas at home tonight against the Chicago Bulls.  The Rockets are 23-11 SU & 24-10 ATS at home this season.

The Bulls are stuck in no-man's land.  They are 4 games behind the 76ers for the 8th seed and 3.5 games ahead of the Hawks for the 9th.  They are going to be in the play-in, and the most likely is they will be the 9th.  They don't have the sense of urgency that the Rockets do right now.  They also have some serious injury questions with Patrick Williams out, and both Coby White and Alex Caruso questionable tonight.  They may take the cautious approach with those two given their position in the standings.

Houston is 12-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Rockets are 9-0 ATS in home games when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Raptors UNDER 234

The UNDER would be 5-0 in Kings last five games overall if not for OT.  They were at 210 combined points at the end of regulation with Memphis last game, and have gone for 227 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in five consecutive games now.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating during this stretch.

The Kings will have no problem shutting down the Raptors, who are without four of their top five scorers in Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG), RJ Barrett (19.5 PPG), Immanuel Quickley (16.4 PPG) and Jacob Poeltl (11.1 PPG) tonight.  It's no wonder the Raptors are struggling to score without all these guys.  They have been held to 119 points or fewer in nine consecutive games and an average of 107.4 points per game during this stretch.  The Raptors rank 29th in offensive rating in their last nine games.

Toronto is 21-12 UNDER in home games this season, including 18-8 UNDER in home games with a total of 220 or higher.  Sacramento is 45-30 UNDER In its last 75 road games.  The Kings are 12-4 UNDER in road games after going over the total in their previous game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Bucks/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Milwaukee +10.5

This line is an overreaction to the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks will be without Giannis tonight.  We saw what they were capable of without him in their last game when they beat Phoenix 140-129.  Ball movement was the key as they had 35 assists on their 51 made FG's including 16 from Lillard and 7 from Middleton, who recently returned from injury and is looking like his former self.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics.  They have won and covered six consecutive games while also going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  But they have faced a very soft schedule here of late and will be taking a big step up in class here.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us even without Giannis is asking too much.  Plus, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Sam Hauser are all questionable for Boston tonight, so it's not like they aren't dealing with injuries of their own.

Boston is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a 107-105 upset home win over the defending champion Denver Nuggets.  Kyrie Irving hit a buzzer-beater with a left-handed floater in one of the luckiest shots you will ever see as a game-winner.  It's safe to say the Mavericks are now in a massive letdown spot off that huge win.

The San Antonio Spurs have quietly gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and are improving here down the stretch.  That includes upset wins over both the Thunder and Pacers at home, as well as the Warriors on the road.  Asking the Mavericks to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Dallas is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans -7

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are playing some of their best basketball of the season.  It's easy to see why as they are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They are 5th place in the West and motivated to avoid the play-in.

The Brooklyn Nets are coming off an upset loss to the Spurs and are now just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with losses to the lowly Pistons and Hornets as well.  They clearly aren't too concerned with making the play-in as they trail the Hawks by 4 games now.  Had they gone just 3-3 they'd be two games back.  This is a dead team walking right now.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and outscoring them by 18.8 points per game.  The Pelicans beat the Nets 112-85 in their lone meeting this season.  New Orleans is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 7th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Knicks last nine games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in eight of those nine games.

The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him.  Their last five games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points, a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points, a 105-93 win over Portland for 198 combined points and a 98-91 win over Sacramento for 189 combined points.  The books just can't set their totals low enough.

The Golden State Warriors have been much better defensively since getting Draymond Green back.  These teams met back on February 29th with Golden State winning 110-99 for just 209 combined points.  It should be another defensive battle in the rematch tonight.

New York is 8-0 UNDER after allowing 100 points or less in two straight games this season.  The Knicks are 10-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  The UNDER is 15-5 in Warriors last 20 games overall.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (New York) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 95 points or less in four consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves/Jazz UNDER 224

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Minnesota and Utah just squared off on Saturday with the Timberwolves winning 119-100 for 219 combined points.  This should be another defensive battle tonight in the rematch.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Timberwolves rank 1st in defensive rating and 22nd in pace.  They are without Karl-Anthony Towns (22.1 PPG) right now, so they are having to rely even more on defense.

Utah has been without two of its top three scorers in Lauri Markkanen (23.1 PPG) and Jordan Clarkson (17.4 PPG) for an extended stretch now.  Points haven't been nearly as easy to come by without these two, and since they are basically eliminated from playoff contention it wouldn't make much sense to rush either back.

The UNDER is 3-0 in all three meetings between the Timberwolves and Jazz this season with 219, 191 and 218 combined points in those three.  It will be more of the same in the 4th and final meeting tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -6.5

Cleveland will be without Donovan Mitchell (27.4 PPG), Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG) and Max Strus (12.2 PPG) tonight.  Not having Mitchell in the lineup here of late has really hampered them offensively as they have averaged just 106.0 points per game in their last eight games.  They have gone just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have been consistently overvalued due to these injuries.

The Indiana Pacers sit in 6th place in the East just a half-game ahead of both the Heat and 76ers for the 7th and 8th seeds, which would be the play-in teams.  They desperately want to avoid the play-in and are playing like it.  

They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with blowout wins by 14 at Orlando, by 10 at OKC and by 21 at home over Brooklyn.  The lone loss came in OT to the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back after the upset win at OKC, which was predictable. They are fresh right now playing just their 2nd game in 5 days as well.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Magic UNDER 217

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Orlando just beat Toronto 113-103 on Friday for 216 combined points.  Now these teams face off again in Orlando tonight, and another defensive battle will be the result.

Orlando is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Magic rank 4th in defensive rating and 26th in pace.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Magic last 11 games overall with 216 or fewer combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

The UNDER is 10-6 in Raptors last 16 games overall.  Injuries have made points very hard to come by for the Raptors here of late.  They are missing arguably their three best players in Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett right now.  They have lost eight of their last nine games while ranking 27th in offensive rating during this stretch.

Toronto is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 games off a home loss by 10 points or more.  Orlando is 170-128 UNDER in its last 298 Sunday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Pistons UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Heat and Pistons after they just combined for 203 points on Friday.  It will also be the 3rd meeting in 13 days between these teams, so they are very familiar with one another to say the least.

Miami is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The UNDER is 12-3 in Heat last 15 games overall.  The Heat rank 28th in pace this season and 9th in defensive rating.  Injuries are really hampering them offensively right now as they are without Herro, Richardson, Love and Jovic plus Jimmy Butler is questionable.

The Detroit Pistons have been a dead nuts UNDER team since the trade deadline where they lost their two best shooters in Bogdanovic and Burks.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Pistons last 15 games overall.

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the Pistons and Heat with 212 or fewer combined points in seven of those 10 games.  Detroit is 8-0 UNDER in home games off two consecutive home games this season.  Miami is 42-24 UNDER in all games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Suns/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5

Milwaukee has been a dead nuts UNDER team since Doc Rivers took over as head coach.  The Bucks are 16-3-2 UNDER in their last 21 games overall with 223 or fewer combined points in 14 of their last 17 games.  The UNDER is 10-2-1 in Suns last 13 games overall with 228 or fewer combined points in eight of their last 11 games overall.  The books have set this total too high today.

I love betting UNDERS in early start games on Sunday's.  Usually teams are sleep walking through the first half because they aren't used to playing this early in the day.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Suns and Bucks with 220, 220 and 205 combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Knicks/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 7th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Knicks last eight games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight games.

The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him.  Their last four games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points, a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points and a 105-93 win over Portland for 198 combined points.  The books just can't set their totals low enough.

The Sacramento Kings are much better defensively than they get credit for.  That has been on display in their last two games holding the Lakers to 107 points and the Bucks to 94 points.  I think they can hold the Knicks in check today as well.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 points (New YOrk) - a good team outscoring opponents by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 95 points or less in four consecutive games are 22-4 (84.6%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the West with a lot to play for right now.  They have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall with seven wins by 13 points or more and 10 wins by 7 points or more.  I fully expect them to make easy work of the hapless Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Grizzlies and they continue to pile up late in the season.  They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall with three wins coming against the Nets, 76ers and Wizards.  They have been blown out on a regular basis, including a 124-93 loss at OKC on March 10th less than a week ago.  It will be more of the same tonight.  Bet the Thunder Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons have quietly gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 118-110 at Miami as 11-point dogs during this stretch, and now they'll want revenge as 8.5-point home dogs in the rematch tonight.

I think this is a flat spot for the Heat, who fell short in their bid for revenge on the Denver Nuggets in their last game.  They lost 100-88 to fall to 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They are now 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and grossly overvalued.  They are without Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now, and the Terry Rozier experiment just isn't working out.

Miami is 3-11 ATS off two consecutive losses this season.  Detroit is 11-3 ATS off two consecutive home games this season.  The Heat are 20-40 ATS in their last 60 games against a team with a losing record.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Detroit) - a poor team that is outscored by 3-plus points per game, after allowing 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games are 44-13 (77.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +10

The Charlotte Hornets have quietly gone 11-6-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  This young team just keeps showing up on a nightly basis.  They will relish the opportunity to try and take down the Phoenix Suns at home tonight.

The Suns are in a terrible spot here.  They failed to get revenge in a 127-112 road loss at Boston last night after losing to the Celtics at home less than a week earlier.  Now they are in a flat spot here as they won't nearly be as motivated to beat the Hornets tonight.  

This is also a sandwich spot for the Suns, who have another big game on deck at Milwaukee on Sunday.  They are a tired team after Devin Booker played 38 minutes, Bradley Beal 36, Kevin Durant 34, Grayson Allen 36 and Jusuf Nurkic 31 last night.  They have zero depth, so they can't handle this back-to-back situations as well as other NBA teams with depth.

The Suns are 7-21 ATS after going over the total in their previous game this season.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Knicks/Blazers UNDER 206.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 8th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games.

The Knicks just got OG Anunoby back from injury and are #1 in the NBA in defensive rating since trading for him.  Their last three games have been very low-scoring with a 98-74 win over Orlando for 172 combined points, a 79-73 loss to Philadelphia for 152 combined points and a 106-79 win over Philadelphia for 185 combined points.  The books just can't set their totals low enough.

The Blazers are really struggling to score right now with all of their injuries.  The Blazers rank 28th in the NBA in offensive rating.  They also prefer to play slow like the Knicks ranking just 23rd in pace.  This game will be slowed to a crawl, and both teams will struggle offensively.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Suns/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +6

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They just got Devin Booker back from injury and promptly beat Cleveland on the road last time out.  Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and nearly fully healthy for this rematch against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Suns didn't have Booker when they lost 117-107 at home to the Celtics on March 9th.  So they will now be out for revenge on the Celtics from that defeat, and I like their chances of staying within 6 points and possibly pulling off the upset in the rematch.

Boston doesn't have much to play for the rest of the way and will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the Suns again.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics, who are returning home from a 5-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from a long road trip because there are a ton of distractions to deal with back at home.  

They will also be playing in their 6th different city in 10 days, will be without Kristaps Porzingis tonight, and could be without Jaylen Brown who is questionable.  This is a tired team right now.  The Suns are the fresher, more motivated team, which is exactly the type of team I'm looking to back in the NBA.  Bet the Suns Thursday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  They have won three of their last four games beating three of the top teams in the NBA in the Thunder, Bucks and Timberwolves.  Now they have their sights set on revenge after losing each of their first three meetings this season with the Kings, including blowing a double-digit lead in their lone loss in their last four games.

The Lakers have a massive rest advantage here.  They have had the last two days off, while the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night.  That win ended a 15-game losing streak to the Bucks, so this game has letdown written all over it for the Kings, who won't be that motivated to beat the Lakers again.

Sacramento is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days.  The Kings are 4-13 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +4.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Miami Heat off three consecutive losses.  They lost two tough road games to Dallas (by 6) and OKC (by 7) before having a letdown at home in an upset loss to the Wizards.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against the Denver Nuggets.

Miami wants revenge after losing 4-1 to the Nuggets in the NBA Finals last season.  They also lost a 103-97 heartbreaker at Denver just a few games ago on February 29th.  Now they get the Nuggets at home and I think it will make all the difference.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets, who have won three consecutive games and nine of their last 10 games overall.  They won't be that motivated to beat the Heat again tonight.  This game has letdown written all over it for the Nuggets.

Denver is 4-12 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games off an loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* Nuggets/Heat ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Miami and Denver met in the NBA Finals last season and this will be their 2nd meeting this season.  These games have been very low-scoring, and this one will be another defensive battle tonight.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Heat and Nuggets dating back to Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  They have combined for 203 or fewer points in five of those six meetings and an average of just 200.8 combined points per game.  That's over 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 215, so there's clearly value with the UNDER.

Both Miami and Denver are dead nuts UNDER teams as it is.  Miami ranks 28th in pace while Denver ranks 27th in pace this season.  The Heat rank 9th in defensive rating while the Nuggets rank 10th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace again tonight.

Miami is 18-6 UNDER in non-conference games this season.  Denver is 22-12 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards ML -127

The Memphis Grizzlies are an absolute mess right now.  They are playing a G League team due to all of their injuries.  Jaren Jackson Jr. and Vince Williams Jr. have been playing well to keep them competitive at times, but not both of those guys are out.  They have 10 players listed as out and another 3 players questionable heading into tonight with the worst injury report of any team.

The Washington Wizards continue to show up every night and are coming off consecutive wins over the Hornets by 12 at home and an upset win at Miami as 11.5-point dogs.  They have done their best work on the road going 21-12-1 ATS in their 34 road games.  They should make easy work of the depleted, unmotivated Grizzlies tonight.

Washington is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. Southwest Division opponents.  Memphis is 2-10 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Grizzlies are 0-9 ATS in home games against bad defensive teams that allow 48% or higher the last two seasons.  Bet the Wizards on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on New York Knicks -6

The New York Knicks will be highly motivated for revenge from a bad 79-73 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday.  They couldn't throw the ball in the ocean, hitting 32.5% as a team and 9-of-40 (22.5%) from 3-point range.  They won't shoot that poorly again, and there's a good chance OG Anunoby returns from injury tonight as he has been upgraded to questionable.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 10-20 without him this season.  The 76ers are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well. It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 7-15 SU in their last 22 games overall and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games.  

They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  That was a rare win over the Knicks on Sunday without Embiid.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a favorite of 7 or more against an opponent that is off a road win are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on favorites (New York) - revenging a SU loss as a home favorite of 7 or more against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* 76ers/Knicks TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 209

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 8th in defensive rating.  They are still missing Julius Randle so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Knicks last six games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.  That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic two games ago and their 79-73 loss to the 76ers last game.

The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG).  They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games, including 99 or fewer five times.  The UNDER is 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams just combined for 152 points on Sunday, so we have a lot of margin for error here in the rematch taking this UNDER 209.  New York is 9-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  The Knicks are 11-3 UNDER in home games when revenging a loss this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

The Dallas Mavericks traded for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and both are making significant contributions.  C Dereck Lively II returns tonight and is their best defender and a key contributor.  So the Mavericks are fully healthy heading into this game against the Chicago Bulls, and a dangerous team when that's the case.

This is a very tough spot for the Bulls.  They are coming off an impressive 4-game road trip in which they won their first three games over the Kings, Jazz and Warriors, but then blew a double-digit lead in a 10-point loss to the Clippers in the finale.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip.  This is a tired Bulls team playing in their 5th different city in 8 days.

Dallas is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite this season.  The Mavericks have done their best work on the highway against teams like the Bulls that they are supposed to beat.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls two games ago.  Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA.  The Warriors should not be favored on the road over the Spurs without him.

The Warriors are 81-146 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-4 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder, by 11 at the Bucks and by 13 at home to the Spurs despite being 11-point favorites last time out.

San Antonio has quietly gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is still continuing to show up every night.  The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs two games ago despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat.  They beat the Warriors by 13 as 11-point dogs without both Wembenyama and Devin Vassell last time out.  Well, they are expected to get both Wembenyama and Vassell back for tonight's rematch.

Golden State is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 road games after losing two of its last three games coming in.  The Warriors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against a team that wins 25% or less of their games on the season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Spurs Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns -6

This is a very tough spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They are short-handed right now playing without Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Dean Wade.  I don't think they'll have anything left in the tank for the Suns tonight.

I like the spot for the Suns coming off a tough home loss to Boston despite playing without Devin Booker.  But Booker makes his much anticipated return from injury tonight, and the Suns have been a dangerous team this season when Booker, Durant and Beal have been on the court at the same time.  They should handle the Cavaliers in this spot.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York -6.5

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-20 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games overall and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games.  They were upset by Brooklyn as road favorites and upset by Memphis as home favorites while losing by 8 at home to the Pelicans as 8-point dogs in a score that was very misleading as New Orleans led by 30 before calling off the dogs.  They won't be able to hang with the Knicks on the road, either.

The Knicks just got Jalen Brunson back from injury and it made all the difference in a 98-74 home win over the Orlando Magic.  Brunson looked to be back to his former self scoring 26 points on 11-of-19 shooting including 4-of-7 from 3-point range.  This team goes as he goes, and they should make easy work of the short-handed 76ers tonight.

New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 105 points or fewer in two consecutive games. Bet the Knicks Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Knicks UNDER 211.5

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank dead last (30th) in pace in the entire NBA.  They get after it defensively ranking 9th in defensive rating.  They are missing key offensive pieced in Julius Randle and OG Anunoby right now so they have rely even more on defense.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games overall with 209 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  That includes their 98-74 slug fest against the Magic last time out.

The Philadelphia 76ers are an UNDER team in their current state because they are missing their top two scorers in Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG) and Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG) as well as De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG).  They are just finding it hard to score being held to 109 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games, including 99 or fewer four times.  The UNDER is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

New York is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry tonight after suffering an ankle injury in an upset home loss to the Bulls last time out.  Curry (26.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) is the one player the Warriors cannot afford to lose and he means more to his team than perhaps any other player in the NBA.  Asking the Warriors to win this game by double-digits to beat us without Curry is asking too much.

San Antonio has quietly gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and is still continuing to show up every night.  The Spurs even nearly upset the Kings as 11-point road dogs last game despite being without Victor Wembenyama in a 129-131 defeat.  Wembenyama doesn't mean nearly as much to this team as Curry does for the Warriors, and his absence is being factored into this line too much.  

The Warriors are 81-145 SU without Curry in his career, including 0-3 SU this season losing by 13 at home to the Timberwolves, by 19 at home to the Thunder and by 11 at the Bucks.  Bet the Spurs Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Pistons OVER 234

The Dallas Mavericks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 9th in pace, 6th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating.  They are without their best defender right now in C Dereck Lively II (7.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG) and the Pistons should have a field day getting easy buckets at the rim without him.

The Mavericks and their opponents have gone for 236 or more combined points in seven of their last game games overall.  The lone exception was against a dead nuts under team in the Miami Heat who are also banged up.  

The Pistons have been playing a lot of good defensive and under teams here of late in the Nets, Heat, Magic (twice), Knicks, Cavs and Bulls in their last seven games.  Their last game against a team with a similar profile to Dallas was the Pacers eight games ago, and they went for 244 combined points.  The Pistons rank 29th in defensive rating this season.

Dallas is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game this season.  Detroit is 12-2 OVER vs. teams that make 14 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -1

Injuries have really hurt the New York Knicks here down the stretch.  The Knicks are 4-9 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a result with their four wins coming against the Pistons by 2, the Grizzlies, the short-handed 76ers and the short-handed Cavs.  They are coming off a 16-point home loss to the short-handed Hawks.

The Knicks have been without Julius Randle (24.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and OG Anunoby (15.6 PPG) during this entire stretch.  Jalen Brunson (27.2 PPG, 6.6 APG) has played in most of these games and he just cannot do it on his own.  But now Brunson is battling injury due to such a heavy workload.  He missed their last two games and is questionable to play tonight.

The Orlando Magic have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season.  The Magic are 37-26 SU & 40-21-2 ATS this season.  They are really rolling right now going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.

Orlando is 19-5 ATS as a favorite this season.  New York is 12-21 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic should be bigger favorites given the circumstances tonight, but the Knicks continue to get respect when they shouldn't be.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have played their best basketball on the road this season going 16-6 SU & 14-8 ATS in their last 22 road games.  They are fully healthy right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They beat Indiana by 27 at home and Toronto by 41 on the road in their last two games coming in.

The Pelicans couldn't be any fresher right now as not only did they have the All-Star Break, but they will now be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days tonight.  I expect them to make easy work of the short-handed Philadelphia 76ers in this one.

Philadelphia is 26-8 with Joel Embiid (35.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 5.7 APG) in the lineup and 9-19 without him this season.  But it's worse than that right now because the 76ers are without their 2nd-best player as well in Tyrese Maxey (26.0 PPG, 6.3 APG).  Not to mention, they are without De'Anthony Melton (11.5 PPG, 3.1 APG) as well.

It's easy to see why the 76ers have been a bet against team since losing Embiid.  They are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games overall and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games.  They just lost by 6 at home to the Grizzlies as 5.5-point favorites in their last game.  It won't get any easier tonight against the Pelicans.

New Orleans is a perfect 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season.  Philadelphia is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games while consistently being overvalued at home.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

20* Celtics/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 221.5

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Nuggets are 14-4-1 UNDER in their last 19 games overall.  That push came against the Suns last game with a total of 224 that went to OT and was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation for 204 combined points.

What makes the Nuggets such an UNDER team is that they rank 27th in the NBA in pace and like to really slow it down.  They also rank 9th in defensive rating.  They face a Boston Celtics team that ranks 2nd in defensive rating tonight, so these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.

That played out in their first meeting this season as the Nuggets beat the Celtics 102-100 for just 202 combined points.  The Nuggets even shot 51.9% from the field in that game as it was played at a snail's pace.  It will be more of the same in the rematch tonight with the defensive intensity being very high for this potential NBA Finals preview.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five games overall.  Denver is 11-2 UNDER in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 116 or more points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Bucks/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 227.5

Doc Rivers has delivered his promise to play better defense in a big way since taking over as the Milwaukee Bucks' interim head coach.  The Bucks are 14-1-1 UNDER in their last 16 games overall.  They have gone for 223 or fewer combined points with their opponents in 10 consecutive games.

The Bucks rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating in their last 15 games.  They have played at a much slower pace to try and keep their key players fresher as well.  The Bucks could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again tonight after he missed the last game with an Achilles injury and looked seriously injured in warmups.  But they have been a dead nuts UNDER team with or without Giannis.

The UNDER is 12-2 in Warriors last 14 games overall.  They have been a dead nuts UNDER team since getting their most important defender in Draymond Green back from injury.  They have gone UNDER the total in seven consecutive games now.

Golden State is 14-2 UNDER after winning three of its last four games this season.  Milwaukee is 8-0 UNDER in non-conference road games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Atlanta Hawks ML -121

This play is more of a fade of the Cleveland Cavaliers than anything.  Cleveland is in a massive letdown spot after coming back from 22 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Boston Celtics 105-104 last night.  Now the Cavaliers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.

Not to mention, Cleveland is already short-handed without two of its best players in Donovan Mitchell (28.0 PPG) and Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG), plus Max Strus (12.2 PPG) is questionable after sitting out last night.  That's three of their top six scorers.  The Cavaliers will have nothing left in the tank for tonight.

Atlanta has a lot to play for right now trying to fend off the Nets for the final play-in spot in the East.  The Hawks have shown some fight going 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games with blowout wins over Orlando by 17, Utah by 27 and New York by 16.  The Hawks will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but that factor is lessened by the fact that they had two days off prior to beating the Knicks 116-100 last night.  They are much healthier and much deeper than the Cavaliers right now as well.

Plays on home favorites (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40-49%) playing a winning team are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Atlanta is favored for good reason tonight.  Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Wizards OVER 223.5

The Orlando Magic have gone under the total in six consecutive games.  Because of this, we now have the opportunity to 'buy low' on an OVER in a game involving the Magic.  Now they face a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards, who rank 1st in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating this season.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Wizards and Magic with 225 or more combined points in all six.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings this season with 246, 255 and 259 combined points.  Those three totals were all set at 235.5 points or higher, and now this total is 12 points lower than that at 223.5.  That fact alone shows there's value with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Heat UNDER 217.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Heat are 11-3 UNDER in their last 14 games overall.  They rank 28th in pace, 8th in defensive rating and 21st in offensive rating this season.  They are missing key scorers in Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Kevin Love right now as well to make them even more of an UNDER team.

The Detroit Pistons have become a dead nuts UNDER team since the trade deadline and losing their best shooter in Bogdanovic to the Knicks.  The Pistons are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games overall.  They have gone for 200, 210 and 214 combined points in their last three games.  They are struggling to find offense outside Cunningham and Ivey, and they are built for defense right now starting Duren, Thompson and Stewart inside.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Detroit and Miami with 212 or fewer combined points in four of those five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.