Free Pick on Marlins -1.5

Instead of risking $150 to win $100 on the Marlins to win on the money line, I feel the real value here is with Miami on the -1.5 run line. I believe that if the Marlins come through with a victory, there's a great chance they do so by at least 2 runs.

Miami will send out one of the more underrated starters in Daniel Straily, who has a solid 3.43 ERA and sensational 1.095 WHIP (7th NL) over 15 starts. Key here is that Straily is in great form (2.76 ERA over his last 3) and owns an impressive 2.17 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 8 home starts. Mets counter with the struggling Robert Gsellman, who has allowed 14 earned runs on 20 hits (6 HRs) and 5 walks in his last 2 starts. On the season Gsellman has an ugly 6.78 ERA and 1.652 WHIP. I also think this is a tough spot for New York. While they were off yesterday, they figure to be dealing with some jetlag here, as their previous 6 were all on the west coast against the Dodgers and Giants.

The most recent meeting between these two was the Marlins 7-0 win in the series finale at New York. The Mets are a mere 3-12 in their last 15 revneinga home loss of 6 or more runs. Straily is 9-2 in his last 11 home starts after a win and 15-5 in his last 20 against a division opponent. Take Miami -1.5! 

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