Jack's Free Pick Monday: Philadelphia Phillies -106

The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in five consecutive games and 7 or more in four straight.

The Phillies have the advantage on the mound over the Reds today.  Ranger Suarez is one of the more underrated starters in baseball dating back to last season.  He is 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing just 5 earned runs and 20 base runners in 26 innings with 27 K's.

Suarez is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati.  He'll be opposed by Hunter Greene, who is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in four starts this season, and the Reds are 0-4 in his four starts.  Greene allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings of a 5-2 loss to the Phillies last year in his lone career start against them.

The Phillies are 39-23 (+14.3 Units) in all Suarez starts over the last two seasons.  The Phillies are 11-2 (+10.5 Units) in Suarez's last 13 road starts in the first half of the season.  The Reds are 15-35 (-20.6 Units) in all Greene starts over the last three seasons, including 2-9 (-9.1 Units) in his last 11 home starts.  Bet the Phillies Monday.

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20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Royals OVER 9

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket between the Blue Jays and Royals tonight.  There are expected to be 23 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at Kauffman Stadium with temps approaching 70.  This should be a home run fest.

The Royals are scoring 5.9 runs per game at home this season.  The Blue Jays are finally getting their bats going scoring at least 3 runs in nine consecutive games coming in.  Both starting pitchers have been solid this season, but their numbers are about to get inflated tonight given the weather conditions working against them.

Kansas City is 14-3 OVER in its last 17 home games off a loss by 4 runs or more.  Brady Singer is 17-6 OVER in his last 23 starts as an underdog.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Marlins/Braves OVER 9.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 9.5 ticket between the Marlins and Braves tonight.  There are expected to be light winds blowing out to left-center in Atlanta tonight with temps in the 60's.

The Atlanta Braves are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have arguably the best lineup in baseball.  They are hitting .285 and scoring 6.2 runs per game this season.  They should feast on Ryan Weathers, who is 7-16 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his career in the big leagues across 176 innings.

The Marlins have gotten their bats going of late scoring at least 3 runs in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are scoring 4.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season.  They should keep them going against Bryce Elder, who will be making his first start of the season for the Braves.  Elder posted an 8.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in spring training this season.

The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings between the Marlins and Braves with 9 or more combined runs in 14 of those 17 meetings.  Atlanta is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 1 or more runs per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Reds OVER 8.5

The forecast looks good for a slug fest tonight at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.  Temps will be in the 60t's with very light winds blowing across the diamond from the right field foul pole to the left field foul pole.

The Philadelphia Phillies have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in five consecutive games and 7 or more in four straight.

The Reds have one of the best lineups in the National League.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game overall and 5.5 runs per game at home.  They should get to Ranger Suarez, who is getting too much respect for the great numbers he has posted against a very soft schedule of the Rockies, Pirates, Nationals and Braves.  Not surprisingly, his worst start came against the Braves.

The Phillies should stay hot at the plate against Hunter Grenee, who is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in four starts for the Reds this season.  Greene allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone career start against Philadelphia last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBA Western Conference Round 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles +7.5

This is a must-win game for the Lakers if they want to give Denver a series.  I expect their biggest effort of the season to try and get it done in Game 2.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Nuggets here tonight.

The Lakers outplayed the Nuggets in three of four quarters in Game 1.  Unfortunately, they came out flat after halftime after taking a 3-point lead into the break.  They lost the 3rd quarter 32-18.  I expect them to make the right adjustments coming out of the break this time around.

The Nuggets took 23 more shots than the Lakers and only committed 4 turnovers in Game 1 yet still only won by 11.  That's going to be very hard for them to replicate.  I expect Game 2 to come down to the wire with the Lakers with an excellent chance to pull off the outright upset, so getting 7.5 points here is a tremendous value.  Bet the Lakers in Game 2 Monday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Nationals OVER 9.5

I love fading Patrick Corbin.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last 5 years.  He went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 2020, 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA in 2023.  He is off to another rough start this season, going 0-3 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in four starts while allowing 20 earned runs and 44 base runners in 22 1/3 innings.

Corbin is 0-4 with a 10.71 ERA in his last five starts against the Dodgers, allowing 25 earned runs, 6 homers and 50 base runners in 21 innings.  He just allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 6 1/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers on April 16th in his last start.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this OVER 9.5 on their own.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game this season with one of the best lineups in baseball.  But the Nationals should contribute as well as they have scored 5 and 6 runs in their last two games.

The Dodgers are 54-31 OVER in their last 85 road games.  James Paxton is 10-1 OVER in his 11 career starts as a road favorite of -175 or more.  Washington is 50-31 OVER in its last 81 games off two or more consecutive unders.  There are expected to be 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Washington tonight that will aid us in cashing this OVER 9.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-130)

I love fading Patrick Corbin.  He has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last 5 years.  He went 2-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 2020, 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA in 2021, 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and 10-15 with a 5.20 ERA in 2023.  He is off to another rough start this season, going 0-3 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in four starts while allowing 20 earned runs and 44 base runners in 22 1/3 innings.

Corbin is 0-4 with a 10.71 ERA in his last five starts against the Dodgers, allowing 25 earned runs, 6 homers and 50 base runners in 21 innings.  He just allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 6 1/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers on April 16th in his last start.  The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last six games against Corbin with all five wins coming by 4 runs or more.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound today that will have them winning this game by multiple runs.  James Paxton is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in three starts this season, allowing just 5 earned runs in 16 innings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers went 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against the Milwaukee Bucks in the regular season.  This is clearly a great matchup for them, but it didn't play out that way in Game 1 as Damian Lillard scored 35 first half points and it was just too much for them to overcome.

Lillard won't be as hot again, and the Bucks won't out shoot the Pacers like they did in Game 1.  The Pacers shot just 39.6% from the field and 8-of-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will have some major positive shooting regression in their favor in Game 2.

The Bucks are expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again in Game 2.  They can play one good game without him, but to continue to play great games without him is unsustainable.  He's one of the best players in the NBA for a reason with all he can do on both ends of the court.

Indiana is 26-11 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in Tuesday road games this season.  Indiana is 28-14 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pacers are 20-6 ATS against teams that average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.