Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
Sports Watch Monitor Line Moves and Today’s Top Trends
By Doug Upstone
We have lots of new information concerning line moves with a very active betting market. We did not cover Chicago climbing as an underdog and being lowered on the total because we knew you could make since of this with the quarterback change. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (302-241 L95D)
NFL – (107) MINNESOTA at (108) MIAMI 1:00 ET FOX *New Info*
The total is this nonconference clash has tumbled from 43 to 42 and it is easy to understand why. The Dolphins offense has dried up like a puddle on sunny Miami day, scoring 42 total points in their last three games. Minnesota is starting Teddy Bridgewater and most rookie QB’s are less effective away and Vikings are averaging 16.4 PPG on the road. Update – The total has stayed still but the Vikings are being hit hard, down to +5.5 from opening +7. Over three-quarters betting the Vikes and 56 percent on the UNDER. SWM Take – Minnesota covers and Under
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NFL – (109) GREEN BAY at (110) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET FOX *New Info*
In the battle of the Bay’s the total of 50 has sunk to 48.5. Green Bay has been exposed as an ordinary road team in scoring just 21.1 PPG. The Packers D ranks 23rd in total defense, but against a Tampa Bay offense which is averaging 18.1 PPG (15.4 at home), they should contain them. The Pack is 9-1 OVER vs. defenses conceding 350 or more yards. Update – When I went backed and looked at this game, a few books that post early had the game at 50, but others later had an opening number of 48. Thus with the total at 49 or 49.5, we ended up having confusing two-way action. The public is not confused with 77 percent betting the OVER. Also, the Packers are being beat heavy from -10.5 to -12 with 76 percent support. SWM Take – Play Under and Green Bay
NFL – (115) NEW ENGLAND at (116) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET CBS
This should a rout but Rex Ryan usually rallies the troops to give their best effort against New England and the Patriots have dipped from -11 to -10. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by three points or less, with New England favored by at least a touchdown four times. This is probably the last Ryan vs. Belichick conflict. Update – During the week I found mostly 10.5, but this morning about two-thirds of sportsbooks are down to 10. Pats have 68 percent backing. SWM Take – New York covers
NFL – (117) KANSAS CITY at (118) PITTSBURGH 1:00 ET CBS
When I first saw the total of 45.5 on Sunday, knew right away the total would be going up and it has to 46.5. The Pittsburgh offense is averaging a scintillating 35 PPG at Heinz Field with Ben Roethlisberger expertly utilizing all his weapons. Kansas City’s offense is pedestrian but should have success since the Steelers defense which surrenders 24.2 PPG and Pitt is 6-0 OVER at home. Update – This AFC total has kept going up, now at 47.5 and a couple of 48’s can be found. Just over 75 percent on the OVER. SWM Take – Play Over
NFL – (121) BALTIMORE at (122) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
This almost isn’t a line move as Houston has lost their top three quarterbacks and when oddsmakers put the Texans out at +3.5, they still had third-stringer Tom Savage available before learning later he was out. Since Monday Baltimore is up to -5.5 and it could go to a touchdown by game time. Update – Almost no movement since Tuesday, though 76 percent are backing Baltimore. SWM Take – Baltimore covers
NFL – (123) N.Y. GIANTS at (124) ST. LOUIS 4:05 ET FOX
After playing excellent football for a month, the Rams offense was anemic in loss to Arizona. The Giants have improved of late (albeit against terrible competition) which has given those betting football the confidence to back New York as underdogs and they are down from +6 to +4.5. The Giants are 33-13 ATS on the road off two or more consecutive covers. Update – Influential money began to arrive and the Rams are not only back to original starting point but up to -6.5. This while 73 percent of the scratch is on the Giants. SWM Take – Lean New York
NFL – (127) INDIANAPOLIS at (128) DALLAS 4:25 ET CBS *New*
With DeMarco Murray listed as ‘probable’, football bettors are still leery of his effectiveness and if he will be a positive for Dallas and have lowered the total from 55.5 to 54.5. How this game plays out will be a function of each team playing its game and scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals. My first thought was this could go below the total but with the Colts having 12 turnovers in last four games; I’m leaning towards Dallas taking advantage of this scoring. SWM Take – Lean Over
NFL – Monday – (131) DENVER at (132) CINCINNATI 8:25 ET ESPN *New*
The total on the final Monday-nighter has dipped a point to 47.5. Denver is 3-0 UNDER of late, with a new emphasis on running the ball and Cincinnati is 5-1 UNDER most recently with either Andy Dalton playing spotty football or the Bengals defense rising up. With a 40 percent chance of rain and Cincy 20-6 UNDER after a victory by 14 or more points, I’m inclined to roll with the public. SWM Take – Lean Under
Top 3 Sides Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 28-18-1) – Lions, Packers and Vikings
Top 3 Totals Bet (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, home teams, record 22-23) – Saints OVER, Buccaneers OVER and Steelers OVER
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CFB – Monday (211) BYU vs. (212) MEMPHIS 2:00 ET ESPN
AAC co-champs Memphis has gone from a Pick to -2 in the Miami Beach Bowl. Both squads bring significant winning streaks into this bowler. The Tigers have more speed than most realize if you have not seen them play and the most likely reason Memphis has attracted more attention is because they surrender 8.1 fewer points per game than BYU against fairly similar schedules. SWM Take – Slight lean with BYU
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Seattle is 7-0 ATS playing against a top-level team (75% or higher win percentage) in the second half of the season the last three seasons.
NFL Totals Trend
Carolina is 11-0 UNDER off a close win by three points or less over a division rival.
NFL First Half Trend
Pittsburgh is 20-6 ATS in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards a play in their previous game since 1992.
NFL 6-Point Teaser Trend
Baltimore is 19-0 vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or higher the last three seasons.
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